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<ul class="summary-list"><li>Russia's convoluted military structures likely hindered its ability to defend Kursk, experts say.</li><li>Ukraine "knew where to press" to exploit its dysfunction, defense expert Dara Massicot wrote.</li></ul>Ukraine exploited the disorganization of Russia's border defenses to make its surprise attack on Kursk, according to expert analyses.The attack put pressure on "unclear leadership structures and lack of coordination" the Soufan Center think tank <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://thesoufancenter.org/intelbrief-2024-august-14/">wrote</a> in a briefing on Wednesday.These served to "hinder the ability of Russian forces to respond effectively," its analysts said.Ukrainian troops first burst through Russia's border last week, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/ukraine-can-pull-off-shock-complex-invasion-of-russia-2024-8">taking Russia by surprise</a>.Ukrainian forces have said they captured as many as 74 settlements in Kursk, spanning some 380 square miles of territory.Multiple reports suggest that Russia was poorly prepared. Ukraine forces faced mostly conscripts, who quickly fled, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.wsj.com/world/russia/ukrainian-soldiers-describe-rapid-offensive-across-border-as-russians-fled">The Wall Street Journal reported</a>.One Ukrainian soldier, identified only by a callsign, said he encountered "mainly kids doing their mandatory service."As they advanced, reports emerged of hasty and disordered civilian evacuations, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-august-8-2024">according to The Institute for the Study of War</a>.While Russia was <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/kursk-russia-looks-caught-off-guard-by-ukraine-attack-2024-8">caught on the hop</a>, Ukraine likely spent weeks plotting the move, Patrick Bury, a military analyst at the UK's University of Bath, told Business Insider."It's gone off successfully because it's been carefully planned," he said. He noted that Ukraine navigated heavy battlefield surveillance to concentrate a grouping of armored vehicles, tanks, as well as air defenses and electronic warfare kit needed to defend them.<a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-08-08/russia-calls-kursk-emergency-after-kyiv-sends-troops-over-border ">Reports suggest</a> that Russian high command — including army chief Valery Gerasimov — received intel about the Ukrainian troop buildup, but did nothing about it.During a public meeting on Monday, President Vladimir Putin ordered his troops to repel the Ukrainian forces.Dara Massicot, an expert in Russian defense and security at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, expanded on the weaknesses of Russia's military organization in the region <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://x.com/MassDara/status/1823058780537733306">in a thread on X</a>.The response — which Russia is calling a "counter-terrorist operation" — still had no headquarters as of Monday and no clear sense of who should lead it, she wrote.The following day a kind of answer came — Putin <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/putin-appoints-aleksey-dyumin-bodyguard-russia-defense-kursk-ukraine-2024-8">was said to have appointed a close aide</a>, his former bodyguard, to be in charge.Ukraine has "successfully exploited seams of responsibility" between three main bodies: Russia's FSB, or internal security service; Rosgvardia, the national guard; and the defense ministry, Massicot said.They had overlapping missions. The FSB was meant to protect the border itself, but the MOD was to deal with the Ukrainians already within Russia, Massicot said.Part of Russia's disarray may also be down to recent reorganizations of military districts and groupings, and a lack of coordination between them.The military district containing Kursk was <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://tass.com/defense/1802675">split in two</a> a few months ago, complicating its ability to respond.Another military grouping — the Northern Operational Group — was given a new commander and rerouted from defensive tasks to instead help the Russian invasion, Massicot wrote.She said those soldiers remained "bogged down" near Ukraine's second city of Kharkiv, unable to help back home."Someone in Ukraine knew where to press," wrote Massicot.

Ukraine's attack took perfect advantage of Russia's internal dysfunction, where nobody was in charge

<ul class="summary-list"><li><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/disney-kid-problem-cable-tv-decline-disney-channel-watching-youtube-2024-7">Disney</a> is the latest big company to have its data leaked online.</li><li>Hacking group Nullbulge said it published internal Slack information from "almost 10,000 channels."</li></ul>An apparent leak has made messages, files, code, and other data from Disney's internal Slack public.A hacking group known as Nullbulge claimed responsibility for the leak in a blog post. In it, it said people could gain details on Disney's planned projects, some log-in information, and more, all taken from the company Slack messaging system.Nullbulge said it accessed "almost 10,000 channels" to dump "every message and file possible." The group remains anonymous but said its mission includes advocating for artist rights, The Wall Street Journal <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.wsj.com/business/media/internal-disney-communications-leaked-online-after-hack-b57baaeb?st=7v2b2my64y794ez&amp;reflink=article_copyURL_share">reported</a>. Business Insider couldn't verify Nullbulge's claims regarding the size of the hack.Disney artist contracts, "approach to AI," and "blatant disregard for the consumer" motivated the group to target the entertainment company, according to the Journal.The X account @NullBulgeGroup spent weeks posting about infiltrating Disney's Slack. One post from July 4 appears to show a dashboard with the daily attendance at Disneyland Paris. A Disney spokesperson told BI that the company is investigating the matter.Disney is the latest major corporation to experience a data leak in the past week. On Friday, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/attt-hackers-stole-call-text-records-wireless-customers-2024-7">AT&amp;T said that hackers stole</a> "nearly all" of its customers' call and text records.An unidentified Nullbulge spokesperson gave the Journal some insight into why hackers might release data first and ask questions later."If we said, 'Hello Disney, we have all your Slack data,' they would instantly lock down and try to take us out. In a duel, you better fire first," the spokesperson said.

Disney's internal Slack message data leaked in latest hack targeting a major company

<ul class="summary-list"><li>North Korean troops in Russia help Putin beyond sheer manpower needs — they help him at home, too.</li><li>The ISW wrote on Sunday that Pyongyang's deployments help Putin avoid another mobilization, for now.</li></ul>North Korea's manpower injection for the Kremlin allows Russian leader Vladimir Putin to avoid another political stumbling block at home, according to the Institute for the Study of War.The Washington-based think tank <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-november-17-2024">said on Sunday</a> that the influx of fresh troops gives Putin a way to, at least temporarily, avoid a second involuntary mobilization.Russia's <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-prosecutor-says-putin-troop-mobilization-thousands-illegal-2023-2">first mobilization</a> of some 300,000 reservists was announced in November 2022, a move that tanked public opinion of the war as families of drafted soldiers fretted that they would be sent into combat and <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-mobilization-some-drafted-dead-less-than-month-2022-10">casualties among reservists mounted.</a>"ISW has repeatedly observed efforts by Russian authorities to delay highly unpopular involuntary reserve call-ups," ISW analysts wrote.Putin and his generals have since repeatedly signaled a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-to-mobilize-500k-soldiers-as-putin-regime-risks-collapsing-says-kyiv-2023-1">need for another call-up</a> but have held off on a second mobilization wave in favor of an aggressive recruitment drive. <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-sign-up-bonuses-reaching-on-par-with-us-military-2024-7">Steeply rising bonuses</a> in some areas indicate, however, that the Kremlin may be having difficulty attracting enough sign-ups.Pyongyang's contributions now give Russia a healthy buffer, as Western officials estimate that Moscow has been <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-suffered-1500-average-casualties-a-day-october-uk-official-2024-11">losing thousands of men a week</a> this fall in a grinding advance on the eastern front.But the ISW said that if Russia continues to take high casualties, even Pyongyang's troop rotations won't be enough to sustain the invasion."The deployment of roughly 100,000 North Korean personnel would only replace Russian losses for less than three months," the think-tank wrote."Such a limited deployment would also fail to address Russia's broader shortages of millions of workers due to demographic crises and the war and the resulting mid- to long-term shortcomings in Russian defense industrial base operations," it added.Ukraine and Western officials said last week that Pyongyang has sent up to 11,000 troops to Kursk as Russia attempts to reclaim territory taken by Kyiv this summer.Anonymous sources familiar with the assessments of some G20 nations told <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-11-17/north-korea-may-end-up-sending-putin-100-000-troops-for-his-war">Bloomberg</a> that it's likely North Korea is planning to send a total of 100,000 troops in the longer run.Dmytro Ponomarenko, Ukraine's ambassador to South Korea, also told <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.voakorea.com/a/7865608.html">Voice of America</a> that Pyongyang would likely maintain a presence of about 15,000 troops in the war, rotating soldiers every two to three months.In total, that could mean 100,000 North Korean troops cycling in and out of combat within a year, he said.The North Korean troops in Russia are <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/north-korean-storm-corps-kim-jong-un-best-russia-ukraine-2024-11">believed to be special forces</a>, which <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.mnd.go.kr/user/mnd/upload/pblictn/PBLICTNEBOOK_202303070948276600.pdf">South Korean intelligence estimates</a> say consist of about 200,000 members in total.Seoul also says that Russia is paying about <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/north-korea-soldiers-wont-get-2k-pay-russia-ukraine-war-2024-11">$2,000 a month</a> for each North Korean soldier. But defectors and North Korea researchers say it's highly likely that most, if not all, of the money will go to Kim Jong Un and his family.Russia's partnership with North Korea has other implications for Pyongyang. <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.koreaherald.com/view.php?ud=20241103050116">South Korea's intelligence agency</a> said Kim is expected to receive some 700,000 tons of rice and assistance with space technology, allowing his country to further circumvent international sanctions aimed at stalling its <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-was-helping-north-korea-before-botched-satellite-launch-report-2024-5">weapons and satellite programs.</a>

Putin paying for 100,000 North Korean troops helps him delay a second mobilization: ISW

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Russia launched a "massive" overnight attack on Ukraine, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said.</li><li>The attack involved around 120 missiles and 90 drones, he added.</li></ul>Ukrainian President <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/zelenskyy-make-russia-small-again-t-shirt-annoyed-the-kremlin-2024-10">Volodymyr Zelenskyy</a> said Russia launched a "massive combined attack" on Ukraine overnight, targeting energy infrastructure across the country.Writing on <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://x.com/ZelenskyyUa/status/1858059178859778326">X</a>, Zelenskyy said that Russia fired around 120 missiles and 90 drones at Ukraine from Saturday night to Sunday morning."Unfortunately, some facilities sustained damage from direct hits and falling debris," he wrote, adding that some areas had lost power.The Ukrainian air force said that Russia carried out the attack using Tu-160, Tu-95MS, and Tu-22M3 strategic bombers, as well as fighter jets and other aircraft.It said the missiles fired in the attack included Kalibr cruise missiles, Kinzhal ballistic missiles, and a Zircon hypersonic missile, among others.More than 140 aerial targets were taken out by Ukraine's air defenses overnight, the air force said.While the final death toll is unclear, Zelenskyy said two people were killed and six were injured in a drone attack on Mykolaiv, southern Ukraine.The rate of Russian missile <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-ukraine-daily-attacks-missiles-drones-2024-11">attacks on Ukraine</a> has seen some significant monthly fluctuations since Russia launched its full-scale invasion in February 2022.In August, Russia fired 1,110 missiles at Ukraine, but that figure dropped to 12 in September, according to a recent <a target="_blank" rel=" nofollow" href="https://www.csis.org/analysis/assessing-russian-firepower-strikes-ukraine">study</a> by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), a Washington-based think tank.The report said that Russia fired a daily average of 23.2 missiles at Ukraine from September 28, 2022, to September 1, 2024, suggesting "a high level of sustained military capability in Moscow and logistical support from countries like Iran, North Korea, and China."Representatives for the Kremlin and the Armed Forces of Ukraine did not immediately respond to a request for comment from Business Insider, which was sent outside of regular business hours.

Russia launched 'massive' overnight attack on Ukraine, firing around 120 missiles and 90 drones, Kyiv says

<keyword id="24240143" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Chennai-International-Airport" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="Chennai International Airport" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="Chennai International Airport">Chennai International Airport</keyword> has been temporarily shut down till 7 PM on Saturday in view of <keyword id="24172195" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="Cyclone-Fengal" source="keywords">cyclone Fengal</keyword> making landfall today evening. As heavy rainfall and strong winds intensified ahead of the cyclone, it is expected to cross between Karaikal and Mahabalipuram coasts, near Puducherry tonight. Multiple airlines companies already issued travel advisories and updates on their flight plans due to the continuing heavy rainfall in Chennai Tamilnadu. Earlier, <keyword id="19900374" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="IndiGo-airlines" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="IndiGo airlines" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="IndiGo airlines">IndiGo airlines</keyword> diverted all flights scheduled to come to Chennai. "Due to the impact of CycloneFengal in Chennai, flights operating to the city are being diverted. Our crew and airport teams are dedicated to providing all possible support &amp; assistance during this time. We sincerely appreciate your patience and understanding," the X post by IndiGo said. Meanwhile, security at the Puducherry coast has also increased as Puducherry Senior Superintendent of Police, Kalaivanan visited the beaches and the coastal roads in the region and inspected them for preparedness. The authorities have advised the public to not visit beaches in Puducherry as well as in Tamil Nadu's Chennai, including Marina Beach, Pattinapakkam and Edward Elliot Beach. The tourist spots in Puducherry have been closed as a precautionary measure, owing to the impending cyclone Fengal. <keyword id="24240138" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Puducherry-police" source="keywords">Puducherry Police</keyword> in a post on X advised citizens, "In view of Cyclone Fengal, we urge you to exercise extreme caution and avoid visiting beaches and coastal areas" The SSP said that 300 police personnel have been deployed on various coastal roads and beaches. "For the last four days, we have been deploying police personnel along the beaches and apart from that we are also informing the fishermen and people living in the low-lying areas to be careful. Fishermen are not venturing into the sea. Since last night, we have closed all beaches. We have deployed nearly 300 personnel across all the beaches of Puducherry and we are coordinating with the NDRF also," the SSP said. The coastal areas of Puducherry witnessed rough sea and gusty winds on Saturday morning due to the impact of the cyclone. Puducherry received moderate rain, as per IMD, in the morning today but the rough sea was seen more than usual.

Cyclone Fengal: Chennai airport shut till 7 PM

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Disney surprised many media analysts by sharing earnings guidance through 2027.</li><li>There's little precedent for such a move, which reflects the Mouse House's confidence.</li></ul>Disney's head-turning decision to share three years' worth of earnings guidance is a fascinating strategic move — and may be part of a bigger play from legacy-minded CEO Bob Iger.The Mouse House pleased analysts this week with its <a target="_blank" href="https://thewaltdisneycompany.com/app/uploads/2024/11/q4-fy24-earnings.pdf">quarterly earnings report</a>, as operating income rose 23% while revenue advanced by 6%. Highlights included a more than four-fold increase in entertainment earnings and a $321 million profit in streaming, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/espn-streaming-disney-venu-sports-bundle-business-strategy-john-lasker-2024-8">including ESPN+</a>.Those solid results, however, were upstaged by Disney lifting the curtain on its internal outlook through 2027. The entertainment giant said investors can expect high-single-digit earnings growth in 2025, followed by a double-digit improvement in each of the next two years.Wall Street was generally surprised by the disclosure, as it's <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/disney-stock-price-3q-earnings-streaming-profit-guidance-cruise-parks-2024-11">exceedingly rare</a> for a company to be that transparent about the road ahead — especially one as typically tight-lipped as Disney."I don't think I've ever seen anything this specific and this detailed," veteran Macquarie media analyst Tim Nollen said of that multi-year guidance in a Friday interview with Business Insider.Robert Fishman, a media analyst at MoffettNathanson, wrote in a November 14 report that "this level and specificity of guidance may represent a whole new world for Disney."But there's more to this unprecedented move than just throwing investors a bone.Iger also seems to be showing off the progress Disney has made during his second stint as CEO, while outlining how his company is set up for long-term success. By doing so, he can tell the world that he's not leaving his yet-to-be-named successor in the lurch (though that also puts pressure on them to deliver).<h2 id="6d252427-f27e-400b-a5d6-f3a79c309e95">Bob-ing and weaving</h2>Disney's earnings report and presentation were littered with comparisons to two years ago, which seems deliberate — if subtle. That's when <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/inside-return-disney-ceo-bob-iger-ouster-chapek-executive-complaints-2022-11">Iger returned to Disney to take over for Bob Chapek</a>, whose brief helm at the Mouse House will live in infamy for lackluster financial performance.Here's part of the first sentence of <a target="_blank" href="https://thewaltdisneycompany.com/app/uploads/2024/11/q4-fy24-earnings.pdf">Iger's earnings-report statement</a>: "Thanks to the significant progress we've made, we have emerged from a period of considerable challenges and disruption well positioned for growth and optimistic about our future."Then there's the third slide of <a target="_blank" href="https://thewaltdisneycompany.com/app/uploads/2024/11/Q4-FY24-Earnings-Presentation.pdf">Disney's earnings presentation</a>, which illustrates how its streaming business swung from a $1.5 billion quarterly loss in late 2022 — Chapek's last quarter as CEO — to a $321 million profit. Two slides later, Disney shows off the progress it has made under Iger in the last year.<div type="image" title="Disney streaming presentation" height="1162" width="2064" msid="115362715" hostid="261" sizebytes="65134"></div>While Chapek made many missteps, he was dealt a tough hand. Iger hand-picked his heir in February 2020, just as the pandemic took hold. And the former parks head was never fully given the reins at Disney, as <a target="_blank" href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/12/business/media/disney-ceo-coronavirus.html">Iger undermined</a> the man <a target="_blank" href="https://www.cnbc.com/2023/09/06/disney-succession-mess-iger-chapek.html">he reportedly called "Little Bob"</a> early and often.<div type="image" title="Disney YoY improvement" height="1158" width="2064" msid="115362720" hostid="261" sizebytes="47026"></div>Iger surely knows he must get succession right this time, both to cement his legacy as a Disney legend and atone for what's arguably the biggest blemish on his nearly two-decade run as CEO.That's something to keep in mind when considering the company's choice to give guidance through 2027. Disney recently said that <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/disney-bob-iger-ceo-successor-early-2026-james-gorman-chairman-2024-10">it would name its next CEO</a> in early 2026.With this forecast, Iger is showing the world that he has set up his successor well — at least by Disney's own forecasts.Nollen said that by issuing this multi-year guidance, Disney is "clearing the decks and getting out from under this cloud of all this change and all this uncertainty, and looking forward positively."Succession has been the biggest subplot at Disney for years, and there will be some anxiety until it's settled. In the meantime, Iger has given Wall Street something else to focus on."I would guess Bob Iger is feeling the pressure to demonstrate that he has set the company back on the right track," Nollen said. "And by giving such thorough guidance, yes, it clears a pathway for investors to understand — or at least to believe — that the company has things under control."

Disney CEO Bob Iger is moving to cement his legacy by undoing his biggest mistake

<ul class="summary-list"><li>President-elect Donald Trump has tasked Elon Musk with slashing government spending.</li><li>Defense could be a prime target: It's the largest discretionary spending category in the federal budget.</li></ul>President-elect Donald Trump has tapped <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/tesla-ceo-elon-musk">Elon Musk</a> to help spearhead cuts to government spending, and the defense sector could be a prime target.The Defense Department's budget for the 2024 fiscal year is $841 billion, roughly 12.5% of the total federal budget, and the Pentagon has struggled with cost overruns and waste.Musk plans to review federal spending as part of a newly created "Department of Government Efficiency" — or <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-elon-musk-vivek-ramaswamy-department-government-efficiency-doge-2024-11">DOGE</a>. It's not an official agency, and Congress controls budgets for federal agencies. DOGE's role may be limited to <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/elon-musk-vivek-ramaswamy-doge-government-efficiency-what-us-spends-2024-11">offering advice to Trump</a>.There are still a lot of unknowns around DOGE as it solicits direction from X, formerly <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/elon-musk-twitter">Twitter</a>, including where and how it'll find up to $2 trillion in promised cuts.But Musk's past comments hint at one area he could target: defense contracts.Musk has criticized government contracts with top defense companies that put the government on the hook for overages in the construction of warships, aircraft, and combat vehicles. And his company, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/spacex-elon-musk">SpaceX</a>, has won some government contracts by bearing higher risks of cost overruns.<h2 id="83ac3479-807f-4415-a020-96d80c7f3594">Musk's way of doing business</h2>Before Musk founded SpaceX in 2001, NASA and the Pentagon often used "cost-plus" contracts, which reimbursed contractors for their expenses and provided a set profit margin.<div type="image" title="President-elect Donald Trump listens as Elon Musk speaks during a campaign rally in Pennsylvania last month." height="2365" width="3541" msid="115359364" hostid="261" sizebytes="435768"></div>The contracts allowed for cost overruns and placed much of the risk on the US government, Clayton Swope, a senior fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies think tank, told Business Insider.Musk compared the contracts to "gravy trains" in journalist Walter Isaacson's biography of the billionaire. "You just can't get to Mars with that system," Musk said. "They have an incentive never to finish. If you never finish a cost-plus contract, then you suckle on the tit of the government forever."Musk built SpaceX's business model around fixed-price contracts. This means the government and contractors set a price for the project at the onset, and the company is paid predetermined amounts once it hits certain milestones.SpaceX has had several fixed-price contracts with NASA, including a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.nasa.gov/news-release/first-contracted-spacex-resupply-mission-launches-with-nasa-cargo-to-space-station/">$1.6 billion contract</a> in 2008 for 12 missions under the agency's Commercial Resupply Services program and a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.nasa.gov/wp-content/uploads/2018/07/spacex_nasa_crs-5_presskit-105.pdf">$2.6 billion contract</a> in 2014 that covered six crewed missions to the International Space Station.The US government previously reserved fixed-price contracts for off-the-shelf products that did not need to be specially made for the government, but SpaceX demonstrated that it could fund missions more efficiently, Swope said.Without the processes and tracking required for cost-plus contracts, companies like SpaceX "can be more agile to changes in the market and iterate on their products faster," Swope said. "When it's done right, it can be beneficial to both the government and the company."<div type="image" title="A SpaceX Falcon Heavy rocket with a NASA spacecraft bound for Jupiter lifts off from pad 39A at the Kennedy Space Center in October." height="2969" width="4453" msid="115359363" hostid="261" sizebytes="315044"></div><h2 id="b3b24f6e-1253-4bfb-9623-5ba146b04d68">Overspending and delays</h2>The Pentagon has often been criticized for mismanagement, delays, and ballooning costs on expensive systems. Earlier this year, for instance, a government watchdog found that the F-35 stealth fighter program has <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-f-35-stealth-fighters-to-fly-less-costs-soar-2024-4">become more expensive</a>, with expected lifetime costs topping $2 trillion, even with the aircraft flying less often than in the past.The defense industry, like the military, has also been called to account. Major shipbuilding projects, for example, are severely delayed. Coming off problems with the Zumwalt-class destroyers, first-in-class USS Gerald R. Ford, and the Littoral Combat Ship, new constructions like the next Ford-class carrier, Constellation-class frigate, and Columbia-class submarine are, in some cases, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-navy-grappling-with-another-ford-class-supercarrier-delay-2024-4">years behind schedule</a>. This is a concern as the US military aims to <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/america-not-ready-china-war-military-economy-2023-5">maintain its edge</a> against its "pacing challenge" China.Separately, DoD has faced criticism over use-it-or-lose-it spending toward the end of the fiscal year, overpayment for common products, and seven consecutive failed audits of the department's $4.1 trillion in assets and $4.3 trillion in liabilities.To tackle the contracting conundrum and save money, Mike Gallagher, a former Republican congressman from Wisconsin and the current head of defense at Palantir Technologies, suggested in a Wall Street Journal <a target="_blank" href="https://www.wsj.com/opinion/two-years-to-prevent-world-war-iii-trump-sec-def-needs-to-overhaul-bureaucracy-cut-waste-c9a162d8?mod=opinion_lead_pos5">op-ed</a> this week that the incoming Pentagon leadership should enforce fixed-price contracting to put more burden on private contractors rather than the US government."The Defense Department's cost-plus contracting model has destroyed competition and innovation while exploding costs," Gallagher wrote, adding that the defense secretary should be required to sign off on cost-plus contracts.Musk's new initiative could recommend exactly this: a move away from cost-plus contracts toward fixed-price contracts.<div type="image" title="The aircraft carrier USS Gerald R. Ford at Newport News Shipbuilding in Virginia in April 2016." height="2475" width="3841" msid="115359367" hostid="261" sizebytes="649290"></div>But fixed-price contracting may have its own set of problems. Bryan McGrath, a retired naval officer and the managing director of The FerryBridge Group LLC, responded to Gallagher's article <a target="_blank" href="https://x.com/conswahoo/status/1857138300307624153?s=46">on social media</a>, saying private companies shouldn't have to face all the costs for systems that only the US government wants to buy.Todd Harrison, a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute who focuses on defense strategy and budgeting, said switching from cost-plus to fixed-price contracting doesn't necessarily save the government money. It also doesn't necessarily produce more effective systems designed to withstand combat or decades of use."What it does is, by moving the risk to industry, it creates more stability for government and what they're going to pay for things," he told BI, adding that "it puts better incentives on industry, because if industry has a cost overrun, they pay for it — it's coming out of their profit. If they can deliver below cost that they expected, they can make more money. So it really just changes the incentives."Harrison said that there had already been a shift toward firm-fixed-price contracts, which tends to advantage smaller and newer defense companies — a trend he expects will accelerate during the Trump administration. But there are some areas where cost-plus contracts are sure to continue.Shipbuilding, especially for projects like aircraft carriers and nuclear-powered submarines, is often arranged with large, multi-year contracts. This is because there may be only one company that can build the system, with one buyer (the Pentagon), and the product is unique to the US military.<div type="image" title="A digital rendering of the Constellation-class frigate." height="869" width="1876" msid="115359361" hostid="261" sizebytes="144122"></div>"In those areas of the defense-industrial base," Harrison said, "you have to manage it more like a public utility, where the free market does not exist, and free market principles do not work."<h2 id="719bae83-1982-40bc-bd4e-defb6b11920c">More efficient programs</h2>Mid-development changes to weapons systems designs are a major cost driver. To tackle this, the government could fix requirements for these systems early in the design process and enforce stricter rules around changes."One way that we know saves money is if you fix a design and don't add features," Michael Bohnert, a licensed engineer at the RAND Corporation, told BI.Today's F-35, for example, is "almost a different plane" than what was defined in its original requirements. Changes in scope have added costs. "You look at other programs that have been pretty narrowly defined — they've stayed in budget," he said.Archer Macy, a retired Navy admiral and missile defense expert at CSIS, told BI there's a history of abusing contracts where there's too much fluidity with requirements and specifications, making them vulnerable to changes.He said the government needs to find the "right type of contract for the right purpose (where you are in the development and acquisition cycle), stick to and don't abuse requirements and specs, and make people accountable."<div type="image" title="Aerial view of the Pentagon" height="3598" width="5396" msid="115359368" hostid="261" sizebytes="1410730"></div>Musk's new initiative may target other areas of Pentagon spending, as well.He could consider reducing the Pentagon's large civilian workforce and officer corps, for example, or crack down on instances like the US Air Force paying more than <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-air-force-wildly-overpaid-c-17-bathroom-soap-dispenser-2024-10">80 times the regular commercial value</a> for bathroom soap dispensers for its C-17 aircraft.Overall, experts warned against any changes that could harm US warfighting capabilities or compel companies to cut corners and deliver substandard weapons systems."However well-intentioned, the reach for efficiency could also undercut your military effectiveness, and you got to keep that in balance," John Harvey Jr., a retired Navy admiral, told BI.In fact, some members of Congress think the US should spend even more on defense. Mississippi Sen. Roger Wicker, the highest-ranking Republican on the Senate Armed Services Committee, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.wicker.senate.gov/2024/5/senator-wicker-unveils-major-defense-investment-plan">warned earlier this year</a> that the country's defense investment is not sufficient to counter America's adversaries."Our defense industrial base is underfunded and unprepared for the wars of today, tomorrow, and the foreseeable future," his office said in May.

Elon Musk is looking for trillions in government waste, and defense is a massive potential target

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Kim Jong Un has ordered the mass production of attack drones, North Korean media reported.</li><li>The move comes after the country ratified a mutual defense treaty with Russia.</li></ul>North Korean leader Kim Jong Un ordered the mass production of exploding drones on Thursday, according to North Korean state media.This comes just a week after a Ukrainian official told Business Insider that North Korean soldiers were receiving training from Russian forces on the use of drones.According to state media outlet KCNA, per a translation by news aggregator <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://kcnawatch.org/newstream/1731624047-386598930/respected-comrade-kim-jong-un-guides-performance-test-of-suicide-attack-drones-of-various-types/">KCNA Watch</a>, Kim oversaw tests of various drones before instructing the country's defense industry.Kim emphasized the need to build "a serial production system as early as possible and go into full-scale mass production."<div type="image" title="A drone takes off during a test of suicide attack drones on November 14, 2024. Picture and information is a state media handout and unverified by independent journalists. The drones have been blurred out by state media." height="673" width="1000" msid="115335199" hostid="261" sizebytes="52152"></div>The news agency released partially redacted images showing Kim watching tests of cruciform-style attack drones, as well footage of a BMW and an armored vehicle, both apparently destroyed in the tests.Kim emphasized how cheap drones were and remarked on the race to develop attack-drone capabilities worldwide, the news agency said.<div type="image" title="This photo provided by the North Korean government shows a burning vehicle during tests of drones designed to crash into targets, at an undisclosed location in North Korea, Thursday, Nov. 14, 2024." height="750" width="1000" msid="115335197" hostid="261" sizebytes="56624"></div>Kim also oversaw drone tests in August, where he called for several types of drone to be developed, including reconnaissance and underwater drones, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/north-koreas-kim-jong-un-oversees-drone-test-2024-08-25/">Reuters reported at the time, citing state media.</a>Attack drones that explode on impact have been a major feature of the war in Ukraine.Russia has made widespread use of <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-lancet-drone-hampering-ukraine-exposing-poor-air-defenses-2023-6">Lancet drones</a> as well as <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/irans-drones-are-the-new-blueprint-for-international-warfare-2024-4">Iran-designed Shahed drones</a> in attacks both on Ukrainian military positions as well as critical domestic infrastructure.Ukraine has also relied heavily on drones to combat Russia's larger military force.There are growing concerns about closer ties between Russia and North Korea.North Korea ratified a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/kim-jong-un-says-russia-north-korea-allies-putin-bromance-2024-6">mutual defense treaty</a> with Russia this week, which stipulates that the two countries would come to each other's aid in the event of an attack.<div type="image" title="Kim Jong Un has been an ally to Putin during Russia's war on Ukraine." height="1877" width="2813" msid="115335198" hostid="261" sizebytes="111736"></div>North Korea has also steadily increased its military cooperation with Russia. Ukraine claims that up to 11,000 North Korean troops have been sent to help push back Ukrainian forces in Kursk.The soldiers are <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/new-details-first-ukraine-attack-north-korea-troops-russia-kursk-2024-11">operating in Russian uniforms</a> and are scattered among Russian divisions fighting in the Ukrainian-held part of western Russia, Andrii Kovalenko, the head of Ukraine's Center for Countering Disinformation, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-passing-deadly-drone-techniques-to-north-korea-ukraine-official-2024-11">told Business Insider.</a>Last week, Kovalenko <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-passing-deadly-drone-techniques-to-north-korea-ukraine-official-2024-11">told BI</a> that "Russia is training North Korean soldiers to operate strike UAVs and reconnaissance drones."This training, taking place under live-combat conditions, "poses a threat to both Ukraine and South Korea, as some of these soldiers will transfer their skills back to North Korea," he said.Kovalenko also said there were plans to send Russian drone instructors to Pyongyang, the North Korean capital, for further training of North Korean personnel."North Korea may use these skills for future terrorist actions in the border areas with South Korea," he said.BI was unable to independently verify his statements.The exact terms of the military exchange with Russia are not known, but North Korea <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/north-korea-military-officials-helping-russia-ukraine-win-for-kim-2024-10">experts told BI</a> that the country is likely getting not only economic aid but also technical assistance. The deal likely offers the state leverage to ask for advanced Russian weapons systems or their designs.The partnership brings another advantage for North Korea: much-needed live combat experience and technical know-how.North Korean troops have not seen significant combat since the 1950s."It's a win-win situation," Joseph S. Bermudez Jr., a North Korea defense expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, told BI last month.Kim is getting access to foreign technology, he said, and also "access to real-world combat information to improve his defensive and offensive capabilities."

North Korea orders mass production of attack drones after seeing Russia's tactics up close

<ul class="summary-list"><li>A Norwegian fisherman caught a US submarine in his nets this week.</li><li>The USS Virginia's propellers got tangled in the nets, reports said, dragging them out to sea.</li></ul>A Norwegian fisherman made a surprising catch on Monday in the form of a US submarine.Harald Engen was delivering a catch of halibut to the village of Malangen, on Norway's west coast, when he got an unusual message, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.nrk.no/tromsogfinnmark/harald-fra-sommaroya-fikk-atomubat-i-kveitegarnene-1.17123634">Norwegian broadcaster NRK News reported</a>.He was told that the propellers of a submarine had become tangled in his nets and had dragged them two nautical miles — about 2.3 miles — out to sea, NRK reported.The 377-foot, nuclear-powered USS Virginia had been on its way from the port of Tromsø, the outlet reported, adding that a Norwegian Coast Guard vessel escorting it had to help cut it loose from the nets."I know about other vessels that have sailed over fishing nets, but no one out here have ever heard about a submarine doing so," Engen said, per <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.thebarentsobserver.com/security/norwegian-fishermen-snagged-us-nuclearpowered-submarine/420357">the Barents Observer</a>.He told the outlet that he wasn't angry, and that the coast guard had been in touch about possible replacements.Lt. Pierson Hawkins, a spokesperson for the US 6th Fleet, confirmed basic details of the incident to BI but declined to confirm the name of the vessel.Nobody was hurt in the incident, he said, adding: "The investigation into the cause of the incident is still ongoing."Speaking on the matter of compensation, Hawkins said: "In general, when the US is responsible for damage to civilian equipment, there is a claims process to reimburse the expense."Norway's Armed Forces did not immediately respond to a request for comment.Hawkins didn't outline what the submarine was doing off the coast of Norway, beyond the fact that it was leaving Tromsø."The US is an Arctic nation and has enduring security interest in the region," he said, adding that the 6th Fleet appreciates Norway's support to US submarine deployments "to deter and defend the increasingly complex security environment of the High North."There have been multiple US naval deployments in the waters in recent months amid increased cooperation between Norway and the US.In June, the Ohio-class ballistic missile submarine USS Tennessee and the cruiser USS Normandy were deployed to the Norwegian Sea in response to Russian maneuvers, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://armyrecognition.com/news/navy-news/2024/us-navy-strategic-deployment-in-norwegian-sea-counters-russian-military-maneuvers">defense news site Army Recognition reported</a>.More recently, in October, Norway's armed forces <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.forsvaret.no/en/news/articles/truman-nor-forces">announced</a> joint naval exercises running through to November with the Harry S. Truman Carrier Strike Group.The British aircraft carrier HMS Prince of Wales was also set to join, the announcement said.Two guided-missile destroyers from the group, the USS Jason Dunham and USS Stout, were sent on "routine maritime operations" to international waters in the Barents Sea, US Naval Forces Europe and Africa <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.c6f.navy.mil/Press-Room/News/News-Display/Article/3943702/truman-strike-group-destroyers-conduct-barents-sea-operations/">announced.</a>The Barents Sea, which is bordered by northern Norway and Russia, is considered <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/hot-water-arctic-fisheries-proxy-geopolitical-tensions#:~:text=The%20Arctic%20today%20is%20playing,security%20relations%20in%20the%20Arctic.">a sensitive zone</a> for Russia.In September, US lawmakers expressed concerns about <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-navy-submarines-17-billion-over-budget-in-crisis-lawmaker-2024-9">delays and soaring costs</a> in building new vessels, including Virginia-class submarines, particularly in light of <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-senators-express-concern-over-low-attack-submarine-procurement-plan-2024-3">China's recent naval expansions</a>.The US Navy's Virginia-class submarine program is projected to run $17 billion over budget through 2030, Rep. Ken Calvert, chairman of the House defense appropriations subcommittee, said.

A Norwegian fisherman accidentally caught a US submarine in his nets

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Iran has given Russia short-range ballistic missiles, the US said.</li><li>That will give it more flexibility and firepower to hit the front lines.</li></ul>With Iranian ballistic missiles, Russia has a flexibility that could be a big problem for Ukraine. It can hammer front-line positions with cheap <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-ballistic-missiles-iran-greater-flexibility-ukraine-us-warns-2024-9">Iranian weapons</a> while reserving its more expensive weapons for other targets at depth.From a cost-benefit perspective, low-value Ukrainian targets on the front lines aren't ideal for expensive, sophisticated precision-guided missiles, stockpiles that are consistently strained as is.The delivery of cheaper Iranian missiles creates new options. "Russia's focus is probably going to be on using those to do sort of the short tactical battlefield targets," Timothy Wright, a missile technology expert at the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), told BI.<h2 id="6af626de-33ac-451c-95fe-99caef61c2d1">New missiles</h2>Two European defense officials told <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/iran-deliver-hundreds-ballistic-missiles-russia-soon-intel-sources-say-2024-08-09/">Reuters</a> in August that they expected Iran to deliver hundreds of Fath-360 short-range ballistic missiles to Russia, as well as some Ababil close-range ballistic missiles. The Pentagon confirmed the Fath-360 delivery in September.Fath-360s, Pentagon Press Secretary Air Force Maj. Gen. Pat Ryder said, are believed to have a range of about 75 miles. Ababils have a range of around 53 miles, according to the IISS.It is not clear if Russia has used either system yet. Reuters <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iran-withheld-launchers-missiles-sent-russia-sources-say-2024-09-21/">reported</a> in September that Iran did not include launchers for the Fath-360 missiles in the deliveries, so it may not have the capacity to fire them yet.But presumably they intend to use them. Wright said that Russia's plan is probably to "get the Iranian stuff on board so they can go after stuff within the immediate periphery of the front lines."Fabian Hofffman, a doctoral research fellow with the Oslo Nuclear Project, told BI "Iranian missiles, by lack of their own range, are restricted to front-line targets for sure." He said the Iranian missiles "allow Russia to put even more pressure on front-line targets."<h2 id="de3eb5c7-6c62-405d-80d4-15adcb1a8937">Freeing up Russian missiles</h2>Ryder, the Pentagon spokesman, said in September that the Iranian missiles "would enable Russia to employ this capability while preserving its longer-range capabilities for use throughout the battlefield, thus deepening Russia's arsenal." Russia could focus on striking the targets it's already been striking, like civilian targets, he said.Other targets for Russian missiles could be high-value Ukrainian systems in the rear. It isn't clear exactly to what extent Iran's ballistic missiles will free up other Russian precision munitions for other targets, but Hoffman said it is clear that "the overall volume is going to increase." That gives Russia options.<div type="image" title="A Russian Iskander missile launcher is seen in August 2022 outside Moscow. These missiles were destroyed in a Ukrainian drone attack overnight." height="2363" width="3500" msid="115297259" hostid="261" sizebytes="275658"></div>Fabian Hinz, an IISS missile expert, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.iiss.org/online-analysis/missile-dialogue-initiative/2024/09/iranian-missile-deliveries-to-russia-escalating-military-cooperation-in-ukraine/">argued</a> in a September analysis that using shorter-range Iranian missiles could free up Russia's Iskander missiles, which have a longer range, "for additional attacks against targets in Ukraine's depth." He said that "while these Iranian missiles may not introduce a new capability to Russia's war effort, they will offer increased flexibility and, most importantly, additional quantity."<h2 id="eda11e7d-e6a6-4beb-851a-f258b8181bfe">Russia-Iran ties</h2>Russia has significantly deepened its relationship with Iran since it invaded Ukraine in February 2022, as well as North Korea, from <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-new-north-korean-missiles-made-this-year-ukraine-2024-9">which Russia has also received tactical missiles</a>. These new missile purchases from Iran are a continuation of that trend, helping Russia get additional weaponry and letting Iran aid a country that opposes the West.Hinz also wrote in his analysis that Russia's missile purchase highlights its "continued inability to produce adequate quantities of comparable domestic systems." That's where North Korea and Iran come in.He pointed to Russia's purchase of North Korean KN-23 missiles, which he said did not offer abilities beyond what its own Iskander missiles can do "but add additional mass to the battlefield."The full picture of Russia's defense manufacturing capabilities is unclear, but many Western experts and intelligence agencies have, at times, pointed to Russia's inability to make enough missiles and other ammunition to meet its needs.<div type="image" title="Russian President Vladimir Putin and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un" height="2800" width="4208" msid="115297256" hostid="261" sizebytes="856310"></div>Iran's Fath 360 missiles <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/iran-ballistic-missiles-to-russia-questionable-accuracy-2024-9">do not appear remarkably accurate</a>, but Russia having more weaponry deepens the threat to Ukraine. It also fits with Russia's tactic of using overwhelming numbers of poorer-quality equipment and poorly trained soldiers to try to wear the Ukrainians down.Ukraine, meanwhile, has urged allies to give it more missiles and air defense systems so it can hit Russian targets and shield its critical systems and infrastructure. Wright said that Ukraine's international partners have given it "fairly small numbers" of missiles.But the re-election of former President Donald Trump puts the amount of help it can get from the West going forward into question, as Trump, while he has not announced any concrete plans, frequently criticizes US aid to Ukraine, arguing simply that he wants to end the war.

Russia's new Iranian missiles could make the front lines in Ukraine far more dangerous

<ul class="summary-list"><li>In his first term, Donald Trump ramped up military actions to counter China in the South China Sea.</li><li>Four years later, China has grown more confrontational, leaving less margin for error.</li></ul>As President-elect Donald Trump prepares to return to office, one of his biggest challenges could be an issue that hardly came up on the campaign trail.The South China Sea — contested waters that China says are its own and the US says belong to no single nation — has only grown as a risk factor in the years Trump was out of government.During his first term, Trump's administration took a hard line against China, stepping up its patrols and exercises in the region, and rejecting Chinese territorial claims.Since then, China has expanded its presence in the region, growing more willing to confront other countries there, including the Philippines, an ally the US is treaty-bound to defend."The margin for error has shrunk since 2016-2020," said Hunter Marston, an Asia-Pacific researcher at the Australian National University."It would now take less of a spark for a skirmish or collision to trigger a conflict involving all parties," he said.<h2 id="26704ad2-dec7-4144-a34a-9f5597d2ab7e">A vital ally</h2>Trump hasn't said how he would handle the region in his second term as president.South China Sea observers expect continuity with the Biden administration, which tried to ramp up diplomatic efforts and strengthen US alliances and security partnerships.Gregory Poling, director of Southeast Asia Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, said that Trump "introduces a level of personal unpredictability compared to Biden.""But there is no reason to expect any major changes to US policies on this front."<h2 id="fef0cfd6-98da-4aac-a5b1-2e1ac4fe2670">A delicate balance to strike</h2>Trump, like President Joe Biden before him, has a delicate balance to navigate.Recent months have seen clashes between Chinese and Filipino coast guard vessels, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/philippines-soldiers-bare-hands-fight-armed-china-coast-guard-swords-2024-6">including one</a> where swords and knives were brandished.<div type="image" title="Chinese Coast Guard holding knives and machetes as they approach Philippine troops in the Second Thomas Shoal at the disputed South China Sea" height="2374" width="3165" msid="115257414" hostid="261" sizebytes="149654"></div>Under a treaty from 1951, the US is obliged to aid the Philippines against armed attack — something China has avoided through so-called <a target="_blank" rel="" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-taking-over-south-sea-us-not-stopping-experts-philippines-2024-9">gray-zone operations</a> that are not technically "armed."The Filipino secretary of national defense told CBS News' <a target="_blank" rel="" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/philippines-expects-us-to-intervene-if-china-takes-rusted-warship-2024-9">"60 Minutes"</a> in September that there were ongoing discussions about exactly what would prompt US intervention.Though Trump hasn't outlined a specific South China Sea plan, he could pursue his broader foreign policy mantra of "peace through strength."That brings its own risks."Unrestrained US militarization is precisely what drives Beijing's insecurity and will continue to exacerbate tensions in the South China Sea," Marston said.<h2 id="96ada877-488a-45fb-9d45-6c143317081e">An alliance at stake</h2>Sari Arho Havrén, an associate fellow at the UK's Royal United Services Institute specializing in China, said Trump would need to decide how much to commit to the region."To be globally influential, the US needs its allies," she said.Trump has often adopted a skeptical posture toward alliances he deemed unfair to the US — including its roles in helping the defense of Europe, its support for Ukraine, and its military commitments in South Korea.<div type="image" title="President Donald Trump arrives to speak during an election night event at the Palm Beach Convention Center on November 06, 2024" height="4000" width="6000" msid="115257416" hostid="261" sizebytes="444246"></div>Zeno Leoni, a lecturer at King's College London's Defense Studies Department, believes US economic interests in the South China Sea make the region an exception.A yearlong conflict in East Asia, which covers the South China Sea, could result in a 5-10% loss of US GDP, according to a 2016 <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RR1140.html">research report</a> by the Rand Corporation, a prominent think tank.Leoni believes the Trump administration will try to achieve balance."Both Trump's and Biden's National Security Strategy prioritized tackling the rise of China, and this is unlikely to change in the context of a more isolationist foreign policy," he said.

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