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Economists at the country's largest lender, SBI, today said they see India's Q2 real GDP growth slowing down further to 6.5% in the September quarter of this fiscal year. Amid concerns over the country's economic growth rate and whether it is slowing down, the analysts said they expect FY25 growth to come "closer to" 7%. SBI analysts join a long line of agencies like Fitch, ADB, IMF, Moody, World Bank, S&amp;P, and even RBI in forecasting India's GDP growth for FY25 in the range of 6.8% to 7.2% for FY25, driven by robust consumption and investment. SIP inflows have been at an all-time high, and so has QIP (qualified institutional placement) fundraising. As many as 71 companies raised Rs 88,678 crore this year through QIPs. Activity in Indian primary markets also remained robust, with 78 mainboard IPOs in 2024; this is a 111% rise from just 38 listings in FY23. Between April and June 2024, India's real GDP grew by 6.7%, the lowest growth seen in 15 quarters, pushing experts to believe that India is caught in a cycle of slowdown. "There is some incipient pressure evident on the domestic economy. Based on our analysis of 50 meaningful leading indicators (both consumption and demand-centric), a dip looks plausible across select cohorts of agriculture, industry, and services in Q2," the <keyword id="22337294" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="SBI-economists" source="keywords">SBI economists</keyword> added. Stating that they track 50 indicators to gauge economic activity, SBIs note said the proportion of indicators showing acceleration declined to 69% in Q2 FY25, as against 80% in Q2 FY24 and 78% in Q1 FY25. However, things might be changing now, given that rural demand has started looking up amidst muted urban demand. SBI also explained that the ongoing regulatory tightening on unsecured lending and roadblocks that are hindering rollover/refinancing of debt through unsecured credit are dismantling the unwarranted exuberance that had built up post-pandemic, especially in the urban areas. Madhu Lunawat, CIO &amp; Fund Manager, Bharat Value Fund states that the overall investment environment remains strong due to favorable economic conditions supporting government policies &amp; reforms. "The sustainable inflow from domestic investors is going to support the Indian equity market in any kind of correction. The long-term bullish structure of Indian economy will continue to attract new domestic &amp; global investors to participate in India’s growth story through various Investment avenues.” <h2>Rate cuts not on cards</h2>RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das clarified today that changing the monetary policy stance to 'neutral' does not mean a rate cut is imminent in the central bank's next policy announcement. Notably, RBI MPC is set to meet between December 4 and 6, 2024, to decide if the prevailing repo rate of 6.5%, which has stayed unchanged for the last 2 years, should be brought down or not. In its last meeting, The <keyword id="20501100" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="RBI-monetary-policy" source="keywords">RBI monetary policy</keyword> committee had shifted its stance to 'neutral' indicating that it is open to adjusting interest rates based on economic conditions. "It should not be assumed that we have done this, so therefore the next step is a rate cut. A change in stance doesn't mean that the next step is a rate cut in the very next meeting. It's not so," Das said. Das also cautioned that inflation remains a key factor, and inflation and CPI prints for October are expected to stay high.

SBI economists see Q2 GDP growth slowing down to 6.5%; FY25 growth to be closer to 7%

As the results season kicks in, the <keyword id="20097634" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="quarterly-earnings" source="keywords">quarterly earnings</keyword> numbers of several <keyword id="22405488" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="blue-chip-firms" source="keywords">blue-chip firms</keyword> — such as <keyword id="19906778" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Infosys" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="Infosys" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="Infosys">Infosys</keyword> and Reliance Industries — along with <keyword id="20837523" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="global-trends" source="keywords">global trends</keyword> and <keyword id="20223116" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="trading-activity" source="keywords">trading activity</keyword> of foreign investors, will determine <keyword id="22405487" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="equity-market-movement" source="keywords">equity market movement</keyword> in the holiday-shortened week ahead, according to analysts. The domestic <keyword id="22405489" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="WPI-inflation-data" source="keywords">WPI inflation data</keyword> for June — scheduled to be announced on Monday — will also influence trading sentiments, traders said. Markets will remain closed on Wednesday for Muharram. Among major quarterly earnings to be tracked this week are from HDFC Life Insurance Company, Bajaj Auto, BPCL, JSW Steel, Asian Paints, Infosys, and Reliance Industries. "Q1 earnings will be a key focus this week as numerous companies, including heavyweights Infosys, and Reliance, are set to release their results. Additionally, <keyword id="22194639" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="pre-Budget-discussions" source="keywords">pre-Budget discussions</keyword> are expected to contribute to market volatility," Santosh Meena, Head of Research, Swastika Investmart Ltd, said. On the global front, a significant focus will be on China. The country is scheduled to announce its GDP and Industrial Production (IIP) numbers, Meena said. "Other global factors to watch include the speech by the US Federal Reserve Chairman, US retail sales figures, and macroeconomic data from Japan," he added. Meanwhile, IT services company HCL Tech on Friday posted a 20.4 per cent rise in consolidated net profit to Rs 4,257 crore for the June-ended quarter and gave a revenue growth guidance of 3-5 per cent for FY25 on GenAI diversification and strong operational execution. "On Monday, markets will react to India's inflation data. Key results this week include Jio Financial Services, HDFC Life, Asian Paints, LTIMindtree, Infosys, Wipro, JSW Steel, Paytm, etc. Also globally, investors will take cues from China's GDP numbers, US core retail sales data, and ECB (European Central Bank) interest rate decision," Siddhartha Khemka, Head, Retail Research, Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd, said. Retail inflation increased to four-month high of 5.08 per cent in June as food items, including vegetables, became dearer, according to government data released on Friday. Vinod Nair, Head of Research, Geojit Financial Services, said, "We expect stock-specific moves to gain traction due to the ongoing earnings season; indeed, IT will be in the limelight due to the good start to the earnings and outlook." In the week ahead, economic data like China GDP, EuroZone CPI inflation, ECB policy, and the US Fed chair speech will be watched by investors to get cues on market momentum, Nair added. On a weekly basis, the BSE benchmark jumped 522.74 points, or 0.65 per cent, while the Nifty climbed 178.3 points, or 0.73 per cent. The 30-share BSE Sensex jumped 622 points, or 0.78 per cent, to settle at a record closing level of 80,519.34 on Friday. During the day, it zoomed 996.17 points, or 1.24 per cent, to hit an all-time high of 80,893.51. The NSE Nifty surged 186.20 points, or 0.77 per cent, to settle at a record closing high of 24,502.15. Intra-day, it jumped 276.25 points, or 1.13 per cent, to hit a new lifetime peak of 24,592.20.

Trading activity to hinge on Q1 results, global trends in holiday-shortened week: analysts

New Delhi: As the earnings season for the second quarter of FY25 unfolds, <keyword id="19959986" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="public-sector-banks" source="keywords">public sector banks</keyword> (PSBs) are expected to see a slight dip in profits compared to the previous quarter, according to a report by <keyword id="19896146" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="Motilal-Oswal" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="Motilal Oswal" meta.hostid="153" meta.entityid="Motilal Oswal">Motilal Oswal</keyword>. The report estimates that PSBs' Profit After Tax (PAT) will decline by 0.6 per cent quarter-on-quarter (QoQ), while showing a stronger year-on-year (YoY) growth of 17.2 per cent. "We estimate PSBs to report moderate <keyword id="19899597" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="earnings-growth" source="keywords">earnings growth</keyword> of 17.2 pc YoY/ a decline of 0.6 pc QoQ in 2QFY25," the report stated. The slower pace of growth can be attributed to flat net interest margins (NIMs) and a slight increase in loan loss provisions (LLP). The <keyword id="20171160" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Net-Interest-Income" source="keywords">Net Interest Income</keyword> (NII) for PSBs is expected to grow by around 6 per cent YoY, although interest margins are likely to remain under pressure. Despite these near-term challenges, the report suggests that public sector banks are on track to post a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 15 per cent between FY24 and FY26, pointing to sustained long-term growth. In the private sector banking space, the report forecasts mixed results for the same quarter. For private banks under the coverage, Pre-Provision Operating Profit (PPoP) is expected to grow by 12 per cent YoY and 1 per cent QoQ. However, PAT growth is predicted to be more modest, increasing by 5 per cent YoY and 0.6 per cent QoQ. "For our private bank coverage universe, we estimate a PPoP growth of 12 pc YoY/1 pc QoQ and a PAT growth of 5 pc YoY/0.6 pc QoQ in 2QFY25," the report added. Looking ahead, private sector banks are expected to experience steady profitability growth, with earnings projected to grow at a CAGR of 12.4 per cent over FY24-FY26. Overall, while both public and private sector banks may face moderate growth in the second quarter due to margin pressures and higher provisions, their long-term earnings prospects remain positive. (ANI)

Profit of public sector banks expected to decline by 0.6 percent QoQ : Motilala Oswal

<keyword id="19923700" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Tata-Power" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="Tata Power" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="Tata Power">Tata Power</keyword> on Tuesday said it has logged 31 per cent rise in consolidated net profit at Rs 1,189 crore, compared to the year-ago period, on back of operational efficiency. "At Rs 1,189 crore, growing 31 per cent YoY (year-on-year), the company reported its highest ever and 19th consecutive quarter of PAT growth on the back of strong operational performance and execution excellence across all its businesses of generation, transmission &amp; distribution, and renewables," Tata Power said in a statement. According to the statement, these businesses contributed 84 per cent of the PAT (net profit) in Q1FY25, compared to 72 per cent in the same period in FY24. The statement showed that the consolidated net profit before exceptional items was Rs 906 crore in the quarter ended June 30, 2023. The company's revenue rose 12 per cent YoY to a record high of Rs 16,810 crore (from Rs 15,003 crore in Q1 FY24), and EBITDA grew 11 per cent to Rs 3,350 crore in the reported quarter (from Rs 3,005 crore in Q1 FY24). EBITDA refers to earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization. "All our businesses have grown profitably on the back of operational efficiency, execution excellence, and sustained business momentum," said Praveer Sinha, CEO and Managing Director, Tata Power. He informed that the planned capex for this financial year is Rs 20,000 crore and the company is committed to adopting and leading the new and emerging clean energy technologies, including pumped hydro projects, hydropower projects in Bhutan, and opportunities to develop small modular nuclear reactors as the government policy evolves. The company has recorded a capex investment of Rs 4,000 crore in Q1FY25. It has a clean and green installed capacity of 6.1 GW as of Q1FY25, accounting for 41 per cent of the capacity, with another 5.3 GW under execution. The combined order pipeline for utility-scale EPC and solar rooftop, including group captive, is Rs 15,500 crore. Tata Power is poised to garner 20 per cent market share in the residential rooftop segment on the back of its new solar manufacturing facility and strong pan-India channel partner network, it said. SEE ALSO:<a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/stock-market/webstories/unicommerce-esolutions-ipo-price-band-to-risk-factors-all-you-need-to-know/slidelist/112307438.cms" target="_blank"></a> <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/stock-market/webstories/unicommerce-esolutions-ipo-price-band-to-risk-factors-all-you-need-to-know/slidelist/112307438.cms" target="_blank">Unicommerce eSolutions IPO – Price band to risk factors, all you need to know</a> <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/business/auto/news/electric-two-wheeler-sales-cross-the-1-lakh-mark-after-four-months-ola-electric-leads-the-market/articleshow/112288793.cms" target="_blank"></a> <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/business/auto/news/electric-two-wheeler-sales-cross-the-1-lakh-mark-after-four-months-ola-electric-leads-the-market/articleshow/112288793.cms" target="_blank">Electric two-wheeler sales cross the 1 lakh mark after four months, Ola Electric leads the market</a> <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/sports/news/neeraj-chopras-paris-olympics-journey-to-begin-with-qualification-round-today-top-rivals-to-look-out-for/articleshow/112311760.cms">Neeraj Chopra qualifies for finals with a first throw of 89.34m – top rivals to look out for</a>

Tata Power net profit up 31% to ₹1,189 crore in June quarter

Mining conglomerate <keyword id="19919721" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Vedanta" source="keywords">Vedanta</keyword> Ltd on Tuesday reported 36.5 per cent rise in consolidated net profit at Rs 3,606 crore for June quarter FY25 due to improved margins and robust cost reduction across all operations. The company had posted a net profit of Rs 2,640 crore in the year-ago period. Income rose to Rs 36,698 crore over Rs 34,279 crore in the year-ago period, according to an exchange filing. Vedanta said in a statement that the proposed demerger of its businesses is on track and it has already filed the demerger scheme with NCLT after getting a nod from secured creditors. The company said that its board has approved a capex investment of USD 270 million for its oil and gas business. "The strategic priority for the Cairn Oil &amp; Gas business is to augment reserves and increase near term volume through infill wells and enhanced oil recovery. In order to deliver this, the Board has approved capex investment (net) of USD 270 million across fields in the Rajasthan block for drilling wells and construction of surface facility for ASP ( Alkaline Surfactant Polymer) injection," the company said in a separate filing. Vedanta Executive Director Arun Misra said that the company has delivered a strong start to the year, with exceptional EBITDA improvement of 47 per cent and PAT improvement by 54 per cent year-over-year on the back of improved margins, and robust cost reduction across all operations. "Our aluminium and zinc divisions continue to outperform industry benchmarks, consistently ranking in the top quartiles and deciles of the global cost curve. These achievements are a direct result of our strategic focus on cost, as reflected in a 20 per cent year-over-year reduction in overall cost," he said. The company's growth projects are well on track and it remains committed to commission the majority of these projects in FY25. "Moving ahead, our focus on operational efficiency, sustained expansion, and ESG excellence will guide our journey. With this dedication, we are confident in our ability to create substantial shareholder value in the year ahead," he added. Last month, the mining conglomerate raised Rs 8,500 crore (over USD 1 billion) through Qualified Institutions Placement (QIP) of 19.31 crore equity shares at an issue price of Rs 440 per share. Company's CFO Ajay Goel said, "The overwhelming response to the Vedanta's... QIP...underscores investors' huge confidence. The proceeds from the QIP will be further instrumental in deleveraging the balance sheet and reduction of finance costs. We have received all the requisite approvals and have filed the demerger scheme with the National Company Law Tribunal (NCLT) taking our demerger a step closer to reality." The company's gross debt stood at Rs 78,016 crore as on June 30, 2024. Vedanta Ltd, a subsidiary of Vedanta Resources Ltd, is one of the world's leading natural resources companies spanning across India, South Africa, Namibia, Liberia, the UAE, Korea, Taiwan and Japan with significant operations in oil and gas, zinc, lead, silver, copper, iron ore, steel, nickel, aluminium, power and glass substrate. SEE ALSO:<a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/stock-market/webstories/unicommerce-esolutions-ipo-price-band-to-risk-factors-all-you-need-to-know/slidelist/112307438.cms" target="_blank"></a> <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/stock-market/webstories/unicommerce-esolutions-ipo-price-band-to-risk-factors-all-you-need-to-know/slidelist/112307438.cms" target="_blank">Unicommerce eSolutions IPO – Price band to risk factors, all you need to know</a> <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/business/auto/news/electric-two-wheeler-sales-cross-the-1-lakh-mark-after-four-months-ola-electric-leads-the-market/articleshow/112288793.cms" target="_blank"></a> <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/business/auto/news/electric-two-wheeler-sales-cross-the-1-lakh-mark-after-four-months-ola-electric-leads-the-market/articleshow/112288793.cms" target="_blank">Electric two-wheeler sales cross the 1 lakh mark after four months, Ola Electric leads the market</a> <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/sports/news/neeraj-chopras-paris-olympics-journey-to-begin-with-qualification-round-today-top-rivals-to-look-out-for/articleshow/112311760.cms">Neeraj Chopra qualifies for finals with a first throw of 89.34m – top rivals to look out for</a>

Vedanta Q1 profit surges 37% to ₹3,606 crore on improved margins

<keyword id="19956271" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Ola-Electric-Mobility" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="Ola Electric Mobility" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="Ola Electric Mobility">Ola Electric Mobility</keyword> on Wednesday reported a higher consolidated loss of Rs 347 crore for the April-June quarter compared to the year-ago period. The company's losses in the April-June period of 2023 were Rs 267 crore, according to an exchange filing. Revenue from operations for the quarter under review was Rs 1,644 crore against Rs 1,243 crore in the same quarter of the previous fiscal, according to the filing. The Bengaluru-based firm said its total expenses during the first quarter grew to Rs 1,849 crore compared with Rs 1,461 crore in the June quarter of FY24. The company made its market debut earlier this month. The company in a statement said its automotive segment (E2W) posted a strong improvement in EBITDA (earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) margin and is close to EBITDA breakeven. The quarter witnessed the highest-ever deliveries of vehicles by the company at 1,25,198 units as against 70,575 units delivered in the same period last year, <keyword id="4393078" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Ola-Electric" source="Orion">Ola Electric</keyword> Mobility said. The company also said it ramped up deliveries of its mass-market scooter portfolio (S1 X portfolio) during the quarter which helped accelerate the growth, adding that the existing product portfolio also saw strong demand which continued growth momentum throughout the quarter. According to Ola, the increasing scale of operations has benefited the company in the form of lower manufacturing costs and supply chain optimization. These benefits of scale are further amplified by the company's scalable platform-based product development and manufacturing technology that results in high degrees of commonality across its products, it said. The company also announced on Wednesday the integration of its cells in its vehicles by the first quarter of next fiscal. Ola said it will launch its electric motorcycle portfolio across mass and premium segments during its annual flagship event on August 15, 2024. SEE ALSO: <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/tech/mobile/news/google-pixel-9-pro-fold-launched-in-india-at-172999-but-you-cant-get-your-hands-on-it-right-now/articleshow/112517193.cms">Google Pixel 9 Pro Fold launched in India at ₹1,72,999, but you can’t get your hands on it right now</a> <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/tech/mobile/news/pixel-9-pixel-9-pro-and-pixel-9-pro-xl-launched-in-india-starting-at-79999/articleshow/112512198.cms">Pixel 9, Pixel 9 Pro and Pixel 9 Pro XL launched in India starting at ₹79,999</a> <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/stock-market/news/ipo-scam-two-victims-from-hyderabad-lose-over-11crore-in-fake-ipo-scams/articleshow/112488051.cms">IPO scam – Two victims from Hyderabad lose over ₹11 crore in fake IPO scams</a>

Ola Electric Mobility losses widen to ₹347 crore in Apr-Jun quarter

<keyword id="19898109" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="Paytm" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="Paytm" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="Paytm">Paytm</keyword>'s parent company, <keyword id="20253123" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="One97-Communications" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="One97 Communications" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="One97 Communications">One97 Communications</keyword>, declared its Q2FY25 results today, announcing a one-time, exceptional profit of Rs 1,345 crore during the quarter, thanks to the sale of its entertainment ticketing business. The company's PAT (profit after tax) stood at Rs 930 crore. Notably, without this windfall gain, Paytm's finances would still be in red, with the company racking up losses worth Rs 415 crore. Paytm was in red in the year-ago period as well, incurring losses worth Rs 290.5 crore. This windfall profit also improved Paytm's EBITDA by Rs 388 crore on a QoQ basis. The company's revenue also saw a slight uptick of 10.5% quarterly to Rs 1,659 crore, as opposed to Rs 1,501 crore in the previous quarter. But on a year-on-year basis, Paytm's revenue dipped significantly by 34%. The company also announced that it has entered into a DLG (<keyword id="23641220" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Default-Loss-Guarantee" source="keywords">default loss guarantee</keyword>) model for its merchant loans of about Rs 225 crore with SMFG India Credit. Under this arrangement, Paytm will be first in line to take a hit in case of a loss that emerges from borrowers defaulting or skipping their payments. "Following the regulatory framework and the emerging market practice, we see increased willingness from lenders to partner and allocate more capital in the default loss. The DLG model will help to increase disbursements with the existing partners and expand partnerships with new lenders for the loan distribution,” said the company in its earnings release today. The company's revenue from its payment business also inched up 9% on a quarterly basis, along with its revenue from <keyword id="19976433" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="financial-services" source="keywords">financial services</keyword>, which also grew by 34% QoQ. At present, Paytm's total merchant subscriptions stand at 1.12 crore, with the company garnering 3 lakh new merchants during the quarter. During the previous quarter, Paytm's <keyword id="20253122" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="gross-merchandise-value" source="keywords">gross merchandise value</keyword> (GMV) also inched up by 5% on a sequential basis, which experts anticipate will continue in the coming quarters, just as India braces for the festive season. Per its release, Paytm aims to achieve <keyword id="23641219" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="EBITDA-profitability" source="keywords">EBITDA profitability</keyword> (before ESOPs) by the fourth quarter of this financial year. However, investors remained unimpressed with Paytm's performance, with its share slipping by around 3.96% during the day to trade at Rs 697.20. The stock has a YTD (yield-to-date) of 7.91% during the year.

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SBI economists see Q2 GDP growth slowing down to 6.5%; FY25 growth to be closer to 7%

BI India Bureau

Trading activity to hinge on Q1 results, global trends in holiday-shortened week: analysts

PTI

Profit of public sector banks expected to decline by 0.6 percent QoQ : Motilala Oswal

ANI

Tata Power net profit up 31% to ₹1,189 crore in June quarter

PTI

Vedanta Q1 profit surges 37% to ₹3,606 crore on improved margins

PTI

Ola Electric Mobility losses widen to ₹347 crore in Apr-Jun quarter

PTI

Paytm declares Q2 results, earns Rs 930 crore as windfall gains by way of sale of ticketing business to Zomato

BI India Bureau

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