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India's retail inflation is projected to surge to 6.15% in October, exceeding the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) tolerance threshold of 6%, according to a new report by Union Bank of India. The spike is attributed to persistent <keyword id="21013592" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="food-price-pressures" source="keywords">food price pressures</keyword> and the waning of favorable base effects from the previous year. Earlier this month, RBI governor Shaktikanta Das also echoed similar sentiments and noted that the inflation print for October 2024 could stay well above 5.5%. This is why, as Das highlighted, cutting interest rates as early as December would be very early and premature The <keyword id="19999655" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Consumer-Price-Index" source="keywords">Consumer Price Index</keyword> (CPI) data for October, which will be released at 4 pm on Tuesday, as opposed to the previous practice of releasing this data at 5:30 pm on the 12th of every month, follows September's inflation reading of 5.49%, up from 3.65% in August 2024. The last time inflation breached the RBI's upper limit was in August 2023. Despite the RBI's anticipation of an October inflation "hump," the Union Bank report suggests that the magnitude of the increase might raise concerns, particularly as November's figures are also tracking at elevated levels. The bank maintains its forecast of unchanged interest rates in December's monetary policy meeting, with a modest 50 basis points rate cut cycle predicted to begin in February 2025. Food inflation remains a key driver of price pressures, with vegetables and edible oils leading the recent surge. In September 2024, India's YoY food inflation rate hit 9.24%, up from 5.66% in the month prior. However, the report projects some easing of food inflation in the January-March quarter, citing typical winter price moderation and improving prospects for rabi crops. Despite this, potential risks from food supply disruptions, imported edible oil prices, and the impact of potential trade tariff hikes will exist. The RBI, which aims to maintain retail inflation at 4%, has held the repo rate steady at 6.5% for the tenth consecutive time in its last meeting as part of its inflation containment strategy. A recent SBI report also noted that expecting rate cuts in this quarter would be immature, and easing was possible only during the first half of 2025. "Given the current estimates of FY25 real GDP growth at 7.2% and CPI at 4.50%, the RBI would quite possibly keep policy rates stable over the coming quarter at least. Emerging trends in the growth outlook would possibly determine the timing and extent of any policy easing. With near-term CPI numbers likely to stay elevated, it’s premature to consider expectations of any easing in the December review. "However, high-frequency data do validate a softness in growth data on an incremental basis. Given the anticipated aligning of CPI closer to the target over H2, a shallow easing, if any can be a reasonable possibility over H1 of CY 25", it added.

Retail inflation expected to breach 6% mark in October, says UBI Report

Economists at the country's largest lender, SBI, today said they see India's Q2 real GDP growth slowing down further to 6.5% in the September quarter of this fiscal year. Amid concerns over the country's economic growth rate and whether it is slowing down, the analysts said they expect FY25 growth to come "closer to" 7%. SBI analysts join a long line of agencies like Fitch, ADB, IMF, Moody, World Bank, S&amp;P, and even RBI in forecasting India's GDP growth for FY25 in the range of 6.8% to 7.2% for FY25, driven by robust consumption and investment. SIP inflows have been at an all-time high, and so has QIP (qualified institutional placement) fundraising. As many as 71 companies raised Rs 88,678 crore this year through QIPs. Activity in Indian primary markets also remained robust, with 78 mainboard IPOs in 2024; this is a 111% rise from just 38 listings in FY23. Between April and June 2024, India's real GDP grew by 6.7%, the lowest growth seen in 15 quarters, pushing experts to believe that India is caught in a cycle of slowdown. "There is some incipient pressure evident on the domestic economy. Based on our analysis of 50 meaningful leading indicators (both consumption and demand-centric), a dip looks plausible across select cohorts of agriculture, industry, and services in Q2," the <keyword id="22337294" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="SBI-economists" source="keywords">SBI economists</keyword> added. Stating that they track 50 indicators to gauge economic activity, SBIs note said the proportion of indicators showing acceleration declined to 69% in Q2 FY25, as against 80% in Q2 FY24 and 78% in Q1 FY25. However, things might be changing now, given that rural demand has started looking up amidst muted urban demand. SBI also explained that the ongoing regulatory tightening on unsecured lending and roadblocks that are hindering rollover/refinancing of debt through unsecured credit are dismantling the unwarranted exuberance that had built up post-pandemic, especially in the urban areas. Madhu Lunawat, CIO &amp; Fund Manager, Bharat Value Fund states that the overall investment environment remains strong due to favorable economic conditions supporting government policies &amp; reforms. "The sustainable inflow from domestic investors is going to support the Indian equity market in any kind of correction. The long-term bullish structure of Indian economy will continue to attract new domestic &amp; global investors to participate in India’s growth story through various Investment avenues.” <h2>Rate cuts not on cards</h2>RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das clarified today that changing the monetary policy stance to 'neutral' does not mean a rate cut is imminent in the central bank's next policy announcement. Notably, RBI MPC is set to meet between December 4 and 6, 2024, to decide if the prevailing repo rate of 6.5%, which has stayed unchanged for the last 2 years, should be brought down or not. In its last meeting, The <keyword id="20501100" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="RBI-monetary-policy" source="keywords">RBI monetary policy</keyword> committee had shifted its stance to 'neutral' indicating that it is open to adjusting interest rates based on economic conditions. "It should not be assumed that we have done this, so therefore the next step is a rate cut. A change in stance doesn't mean that the next step is a rate cut in the very next meeting. It's not so," Das said. Das also cautioned that inflation remains a key factor, and inflation and CPI prints for October are expected to stay high.

SBI economists see Q2 GDP growth slowing down to 6.5%; FY25 growth to be closer to 7%

India's GDP growth is projected at 7.2 per cent in 2024-25, around 7 per cent in the next fiscal, and after that, there is a strong likelihood that the growth will revert to the 8 per cent trend, said <keyword id="19899810" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Reserve-Bank-of-India" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="Reserve Bank of India" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="Reserve Bank of India">Reserve Bank of India</keyword> deputy governor <keyword id="20244361" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Michael-Debabrata-Patra" source="keywords">Michael Debabrata Patra</keyword>. He was speaking at the New York Fed Central Banking Seminar organised by the <keyword id="20238413" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Federal-Reserve-Bank" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="Federal Reserve Bank" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="Federal Reserve Bank">Federal Reserve Bank</keyword> here on Monday. "...I do believe with all the strength of my conviction that India's time has come," he said, and highlighted the country heads into its future with the youngest population in the world with a median age of 28 years. Unlike in many parts of the world, the working age population is growing -- every sixth working age person is an Indian. Patra said that since independence in 1947, India's growth path has undergone three structural shifts with trend growth, having risen to 7 per cent during 2002-2019. After the severe contraction during the pandemic, a new growth trajectory averaging 8 per cent seems to be forming during 2021-24, he said. India is now regarded as the fastest growing major economy in the world. Already the fifth largest economy in terms of market exchange rates, it is poised to become the third largest economy by 2030, the senior RBI official said and added the country is already the third largest economy in terms of <keyword id="20776921" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="purchasing-power-parity" source="keywords">purchasing power parity</keyword>. "Our projections show that India's <keyword id="21013593" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="real-GDP-growth" source="keywords">real GDP growth</keyword> will be 7.2 per cent in 2024-25 and around 7.0 per cent in 2025-26 in a cyclical correction to the rebound from the pandemic. Thereafter, there is a strong likelihood that India's growth will revert to the 8 per cent trend," Patra said. On inflation, he said it is projected to average 4.5 per cent in 2024-25 and 4.1 per cent in 2025-26. Consumer Price Index (CPI) based inflation fell below target during July-August but rose to 5.5 per cent in September on the back of a pickup in price momentum in some food items and adverse base effects inherent in year-on-year measurement. "Our projection indicates that these price pressures will persist in October and November before headline inflation realigns with the target from December 2024 and remains aligned in 2025-26," the deputy governor said. He also emphasised that India is emerging as a world leader in leveraging <keyword id="20181895" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="digital-technologies" source="keywords">digital technologies</keyword> for transformative change.

India likely to grow at 7.2% in FY25, says RBI deputy governor

The Reserve Bank is unlikely to ease the benchmark policy rate from 6.5% during 2024, given the persisting uncertainty over <keyword id="19999654" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="food-inflation" source="keywords">food inflation</keyword>, State Bank of India (<keyword id="19898108" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="SBI" source="keywords">SBI</keyword>) chairman C S Setty has recently said. The US Federal Reserve's first cut in <keyword id="20071327" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="interest-rate" source="keywords">interest rate</keyword>s in more than four years happened today, triggering central banks in other economies to follow suit. The Fed trimmed the interest rates by 50 basis point trim to its target interest rate range to 4.75-5%. "On the rate front, a lot of central banks are taking independent calls. While Fed rate cut would influence everyone, <keyword id="19899808" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="RBI" source="keywords">RBI</keyword> would be mindful of the food inflation before taking a call on interest rate cut," Setty, who recently took over the reins of the bank, was noted as saying. "Our view is also that the rate cut during the current calendar year may not happen. Probably, we may have to wait for Q4 (January-March 2025) unless there is a good improvement in terms of food inflation," he added. Notably, RBIs <keyword id="19913109" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="Monetary-Policy-Committee" source="keywords">Monetary Policy Committee</keyword> (MPC), headed by RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das is scheduled to meet next month, between October 7-9 and take a call on interest rate. The committee will largely take <keyword id="19999652" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="retail-inflation" source="keywords">retail inflation</keyword>, which inched to 3.65% in August, up from 3.54% in July, into account for making rate-related decisions On the other hand, India's wholesale price index (WPI) eased to 1.31% on an annual basis, which is also a 4-month low, down from 2.04% in July. The data, released recently by the government, also highlighted the stickiness of food price inflation, which stood largely undeterred at 3.11% in August, as compared to 3.45% in July. Although WPI rates do not directly impact RBIs decision making, it does affect the retail inflation rates, although it takes time to reflect the same. Says Rahul Agrawal, Senior Economist at ICRA Ltd, “The <keyword id="20198768" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="WPI-inflation" source="keywords">WPI inflation</keyword> eased to a four-month low in August 2024, with the fuel and power, core (non-food manufacturing), and crude petroleum and natural gas sub-groups together pulling down the headline WPI print by as much as 70 bps in the month vis-à-vis July 2024. The core WPI inflation dipped to 0.7% in August 2024 from 1.2% in July 2024, amidst a continued softening in global commodity prices. "While prices of most food items have eased further on a month-on-month basis in September 2024, an adverse base would push up the YoY inflation prints for the primary food articles category significantly in the ongoing month, exerting upward pressure to the headline WPI inflation print for September 2024", said Agrawal. The price of the Indian basket of crude oil has averaged 6.0% lower in September 2024 on a sequential basis, touching the lowest levels in 33 months, which would also help contain the uptick in the headline WPI inflation print in the month. We anticipate WPI to touch the 2.0% in September 2024 from 1.3% in August 2024", he continued. Amongst the food articles whose prices dipped during the month were cereals (8.44%), paddy (9.12%), pulses (18.57%) and onions (65.75%), it did little to tame inflation, which continued to stay put in double digits. On the other hand, prices of potato (77.96%) and fruits (16.7%) inched up. The dip in WPI was largely led by slowdown in prices of manufactured food products (3.61%), beverages (1.9%), pharmaceuticals (1.97%) and petrol (4.23%). "While there may not be a one-to-one correspondence between the WPI and the CPI data because of the items, size, number, and relative weights assigned, the CPI data will also down-trend in sync with the RBI’s medium-term target of 4 % for the second time in nearly five years. However high food prices will induce the RBI to be wary", notes Manoranjan Sharma, Chief Economist, Infomerics Ratings.

RBI unlikely to cut interest rate in 2024, food inflation to be deciding factor, says SBI chief Setty

The <keyword id="19899810" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Reserve-Bank-of-India" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="Reserve Bank of India" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="Reserve Bank of India">Reserve Bank of India</keyword> announced the decision of the newly formed six-member MPC (<keyword id="19913109" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Monetary-Policy-Committee" source="keywords">Monetary Policy Committee</keyword>) today, following the conclusion of the three-day meeting, which began on October 7, 2024. Treading along expected lines, RBI rate-setting panel left the repo rate unchanged at 6.5% for the 10th consecutive time, in its 51st meeting today. The decision was made by a majority, with 5 out of 6 members voting for leaving the rate unchanged. This is the fourth bi-monthly monetary policy review for FY25, and the first since three external members were appointed to the panel earlier this month. The tenure of the previous three members had come to an end on October 4, 2024. While the outgoing members include Ashima Goyal (emeritus professor, Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research), Shashanka Bhide (honorary senior advisor, National Council of Applied Economic Research); and Jayanth R. Varma(professor, Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad), the income members are Ram Singh (Director, Delhi School of Economics), Saugata Bhattacharya, an economist; and Nagesh Kumar (Director and chief executive, Institute for Studies in Industrial Development). <h2>Wait and Watch </h2>RBI also changed its policy stance to neutral, while remaining committed to growth and bringing down inflation to its target of 4%. This means that at present, the bank is not inclined to either increase or decrease the interest rates, but will take a call depending on macroeconomic conditions and prevailing factors. "Taking all these factors into consideration, the real GDP growth for 2024-25 is projected at 7.2%, with Q2 at 7%, Q3 at 7.4% and Q4 at 7.4%", he said. As for inflation, Das highlighted that headline inflation had softened significantly in July and August and even food inflation experienced a certain degree of correction during these two months. Keeping this in mind, CPI inflation for 2024-25 i.e. current year is projected at 4.5%, with Q2 at 4.1%, Q3 at 4.8% and Q4 at 4.2%. CPI for first quarter of next financial year i.e. 2025-26 is estimated at 4.3%. "It's with a lot of effort that inflation horse has been brought to the stable, i.e. closer to the target and within the tolerance span, compared to its place or heightened levels two years ago. We have to be very careful about opening the gate, as the horse may simply hold again. We must keep the horse in tight leash, so that we do not lose control", Das added. Most economists had anticipated a change in the central bank's current policy stance of 'withdrawal of accommodation'. This policy stand indicates that any interest rate cuts are presently off the table. However, given the ongoing geopolitical crisis and Fed's jumbo rate cut by 50-basis points last month, RBI may bring about a cut in interest rates, sooner than later. However, since food inflation remains high at 5.42% as of July 2024, experts had also estimated that now might not have been a good time for RBI to bring down interest rates. Moreover, PMI (purchase managers index) indices, which help in gauging the health of manufacturing and service sectors in the country, presently stand at a multi-month low, and even the core sector output is witnessing a contraction after 42 straight months. As Suman Chowdhury, Executive Director &amp; Chief Economist, Acuité Ratings &amp; Research had highlighted, the current circumstances are not really conducive for RBI to opt for any affirmation action towards an easier monetary policy. "While the fear of the inflation “elephant” may have subsided with the CPI headline print well within 4.0% over the last two months and a favorable monsoon, the concerns around the stability of food inflation still linger among policy makers. The RBI may wait till December 2024 or February 2025 to make a rat cut, he continued. <h2>Housing sector rejoices</h2>From the point of view of homebuyers, the relatively affordable home loan interest rate regime will continue at a critical time for the Indian housing market - the festive season - amid rising housing prices and tapered sales. Q3 2024 saw average housing prices rise by a cumulative 23% in the top 7 cities even as average prices in these markets collectively rose to approximately Rs 8,390 per sq. ft. by Q3 2024-end, from Rs 6,800 per sq. ft. in Q3 2023. "The unchanged home loan rates are much-needed demand support in the ongoing festive quarter. We are expecting faster sales momentum in Q4 2024 when compared to the preceding quarter. This year's festive quarter may see similar demand to that seen in this period a year ago, if not higher. Over 1.27 lakh units were sold across the top 7 cities back in Q4 2023. Unchanged interest rates will play and important role in achieving and maintaining this momentum", says Anuj Puri, Chairman - ANAROCK Group

RBIs MPC meet concludes today: Repo rate left unchanged at 6.5%

<ul><li>The <keyword id="19899810" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Reserve-Bank-of-India" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="Reserve Bank of India" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="Reserve Bank of India">Reserve Bank of India</keyword> will conclude the three-day <keyword id="19913109" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Monetary-Policy-Committee" source="keywords">Monetary Policy Committee</keyword> (<keyword id="19918491" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="MPC" source="keywords">MPC</keyword>) meeting today.</li><li>The central bank is expected to announce its decision on policy rates.</li><li>The <keyword id="19899808" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="RBI" source="keywords">RBI</keyword> has maintained the <keyword id="20094323" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="repo-rate" source="keywords">repo rate</keyword> at 6.50% for the past nine meetings.</li></ul>The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is set to conclude the three-day Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting today, with Governor <keyword id="19913110" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Shaktikanta-Das" source="keywords">Shaktikanta Das</keyword> expected to announce the central bank's decision on policy rates. The meeting, which <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/finance/news/rbis-monetary-policy-committee-meeting-begins-today-announcement-on-october-9/articleshow/113999887.cms">began</a> on October 7, has garnered significant attention, as the RBI has maintained the repo rate at 6.50% for the past nine meetings. The repo rate has remained steady since the RBI adopted a cautious stance to balance inflation control and <keyword id="19900794" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="economic-growth" source="keywords">economic growth</keyword>. Key factors that the MPC is weighing include persistent inflationary pressures, particularly in food prices, as well as global economic uncertainties. According to data from the Ministry of Statistics &amp; Programme Implementation, while All India Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation moderated to 3.65% in August--within the RBI's target band of 2-6%. <keyword id="19999654" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="food-inflation" source="keywords">Food inflation</keyword> remains elevated at 5.65%, above the central bank's medium-term target of 4%. This, coupled with rising global crude oil prices due to geopolitical tensions in West Asia, has intensified concerns over inflation. Despite these challenges, the RBI has so far opted for a status quo on the repo rate, aiming to foster economic recovery after the pandemic. However, today's announcement will be closely watched to see if the central bank shifts its stance, especially given the external pressures and uncertainties surrounding global markets. Economists, however, have noted that the RBI will not make any changes in its policy stance before December. "With the focus on taming headline inflation, the RBI is likely to hold the rates although the core inflation is within the limit. It is possible the RBI may shift to the neutral stand" said M Govind Rao, Member, of the Fourteenth Finance Commission and former Director, of the National Institute of Public Finance and Policy. On September 18, the US Federal Reserve announced a steep 50 basis points interest cut in its review meeting. US Fed announced the rate cuts after holding interest rates steady for eight straight meetings. "In this overarching macroeconomic setting of heightened geopolitical tensions, core inflation inching upwards, oil price volatility, and high food inflation, we anticipate a change in the RBI's policy stance from "withdrawal of accommodation" to "neutral" at its forthcoming MPC meeting on October 9, 2024. However, we do not see any rate action coming and the benchmark interest rates may not undergo any change" said Manoranjan Sharma, Chief Economist, Infomerics Ratings. Earlier this month the central government appointed three new members to the monetary policy committee. The MPC comprises three members from the RBI and three external members appointed by the Central Government. With inputs from ANI. SEE ALSO: <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/business/auto/news/byd-emax-7-electric-mpv-launched-in-india-starting-at-26-9-lakh/slidelist/114046121.cms">BYD eMax 7 electric MPV launched in India starting at ₹26.9 lakh</a> <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/personal-finance/news/heres-how-a-reddit-user-was-able-to-get-an-iphone-16-at-under-27000/articleshow/114035179.cms">Here’s how a Reddit user was able to get an iPhone 16 at under ₹27,000</a> <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/stock-market/news/hyundai-swiggy-ather-upcoming-large-ipos-in-india/slidelist/114014140.cms">Hyundai To Swiggy: Everyone wants to cash in on the IPO bonanza</a>

RBI MPC announcement today: Rates unlikely to change, RBI may change stance to neutral

Mumbai: The Reserve Bank is unlikely to cut the benchmark <keyword id="20071327" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="interest-rate" source="keywords">interest rate</keyword> in its forthcoming bi-monthly monetary policy review later in the week as <keyword id="19999652" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="retail-inflation" source="keywords">retail inflation</keyword> is still a cause of concern, and there is a possibility of the Middle East crisis deteriorating further, impacting crude oil and commodity prices, say experts. Earlier this month, the government reconstituted the Reserve Bank's rate-setting panel -- <keyword id="19913109" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Monetary-Policy-Committee" source="keywords">Monetary Policy Committee</keyword> (MPC). The reconstituted panel, with three newly appointed external members, will commence its maiden meeting on Monday. MPC Chairman RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das will reveal the outcome of the three-day discussion on Wednesday (October 9). The <keyword id="19899810" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="Reserve-Bank-of-India" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="Reserve Bank of India" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="Reserve Bank of India">Reserve Bank of India</keyword> (RBI) has kept the repo or short-term lending rate unchanged at 6.5 per cent since February 2023, and experts think some easing could only be possible in December. The government has tasked the central bank to ensure that Consumer Price Index (CPI) based retail inflation remains at 4 per cent with a margin of 2 per cent on either side. In the current context, experts feel that the RBI may not follow the US Federal Reserve, which lowered the benchmark rates by 50 basis points, and the central banks of some developed nations, which have reduced the interest rates. "We do not expect any change in the <keyword id="20094323" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="repo-rate" source="keywords">repo rate</keyword> or stance by MPC. The reason is that inflation for September and October will be above 5 per cent, and the present low inflation is due to the base effect. Besides, core inflation is inching upwards," said Madan Sabnavis, Chief Economist, Bank of Baroda. Further, the recent Iran-Israel imbroglio can intensify, and there is uncertainty here, he said. "Hence, the status quo is the most likely option even for new members. Inflation forecast may be lowered by 10-20 bps and no change in GDP forecast likely," said Sabnavis. The central bank last hiked the repo rate to 6.5 per cent in February 2023 and since then, it has held the rate at the same level. Icra Chief Economist Aditi Nayar said that given the undershooting in the initial first quarter GDP growth relative to the MPC's forecast and the likely sizeable undershooting in the second quarter CPI inflation print as well, "we believe a stance change to neutral may be appropriate in the October 2024 policy review". This could be followed by a shallow rate-cutting cycle of 25 bps each in December 2024 and February 2025, she added. "The abundant monsoon offers some insurance for crop inflation. The impact of global political developments and geopolitical uncertainty on the growth inflation dynamics remains a risk," Nayar added. An HSBC report said three developments stand out -- softer growth numbers have trickled in recently, inflation has been falling, and the external environment has moved from rate hikes to cuts. "We believe the RBI doesn't gain from waiting any longer. We think it will change its stance from a hawkish 'withdrawal of accommodation' to 'neutral' in the upcoming 9 October policy meeting, followed by repo rate cuts of 25 bps each in the December and February meetings, taking the repo rate to 6 per cent," the report said. The RBI kept the repo rate unchanged at 6.5 per cent in its August bi-monthly review amid risks from higher food inflation. This was the ninth consecutive MPC meeting, which decided to maintain the status quo on the rate front. Pradeep Aggarwal, founder and chairman, Signature Global (India) Limited, said while the real estate industry, developer community, and homebuyers are hoping for an interest rate cut in the upcoming monetary policy review, the RBI is likely to hold on to the interest rate cuts for the tenth consecutive time. "The apex bank still seems uncomfortable with the overall retail inflation scenario, particularly food inflation. As such, it is expected to maintain the status quo. The recent interest rate cut by the US Federal Reserve has ignited similar hopes even in India, but the domestic scenario is very different," he added. SBM Bank India Head Treasury Mandar Pitale believed that the MPC has persistently advocated a restrictive policy until inflation aligns durably towards the 4 per cent target. "With the unfavourable base effect taking the next couple of CPI prints near 5 per cent plus or minus, it will pose a major challenge for MPC to start easing from the October meeting," Pitale said, adding that the MPC is also expected to deliberate upon the global factors like growth-inflation behaviour in developed economies. The government has appointed Ram Singh, Saugata Bhattacharya, and Nagesh Kumar as external members of the MPC. They have replaced Ashima Goyal, Shashanka Bhide, and Jayanth R Varma. Apart from the Governor, the other internal members are the RBI Deputy Governor in charge of monetary policy Michael Debabrata Patra and the Executive Director monetary policy department of RBI Rajiv Ranjan. In an off-cycle meeting in May 2022, the MPC raised the policy rate by 40 basis points and it was followed by rate hikes of varying sizes, in the subsequent meetings till February 2023. The repo rate was raised by 250 basis points cumulatively between May 2022 and February 2023.

Status-quo on interest rate likely, say experts ahead of RBI's policy review

<keyword id="23350090" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="Healthcare-in-India" source="keywords">Healthcare in India</keyword> is facing a growing crisis as costs continue to rise sharply, increasing by 14% annually, according to the ACKO India <keyword id="19894985" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="health-insurance" source="keywords">Health Insurance</keyword> Index 2024. The report highlights that this double-digit inflation in <keyword id="19909937" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="healthcare" source="keywords">healthcare</keyword> is putting immense pressure on individuals and families across the country. "<keyword id="23350091" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="healthcare-inflation" source="keywords">Healthcare inflation</keyword> was reported at 14 per cent in India," the report stated, illustrating the persistent increase in healthcare expenses. <h2>Out-of-pocket expenditures</h2>One of the most alarming findings in the report is that 62% of healthcare expenses are paid out of pocket by patients and their families. This has created a significant financial burden, often forcing individuals to turn to loans and borrowings to cover medical costs. The report noted that 23% of hospital charges are financed through borrowings, emphasizing the toll this takes on household financial health. In many cases, these <keyword id="20228812" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="out-of-pocket-expenses" source="keywords">out-of-pocket expenses</keyword> are unpredictable and steep, leading to mounting debts for families. As health crises strike unexpectedly, the lack of widespread health insurance coverage is leaving families vulnerable, highlighting the urgent need for better healthcare protection. <h2><keyword id="20699023" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="kidney-disease" source="keywords">Kidney disease</keyword> capital: Delhi</h2>Kidney disease has emerged as a growing concern in India, with Delhi being identified as the kidney disease capital of the country. The report states that Delhi NCR had the highest share of health insurance claims related to kidney health, followed closely by Kochi. "Delhi is the capital for kidney disease, followed by Kochi. Delhi NCR had the highest share of claims related to kidney health," the report confirmed, indicating a rising trend in kidney-related issues. Beyond the staggering number of claims, the financial impact of treating kidney diseases has also been brought to light. The average age of patients claiming for kidney and renal problems is 47 years, showing that kidney issues are affecting people at a relatively young age. One of the highest bills for kidney-related treatment in the past year amounted to Rs 24,73,894, showing just how costly these health conditions can be. <h2>Rising <keyword id="19898369" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="heart-disease" source="keywords">heart disease</keyword> in major cities</h2>The report also flagged the increasing number of heart disease cases in India's metropolitan cities. Kolkata and Mumbai recorded the highest number of claims related to heart conditions, with hospitalizations for cardiovascular issues like heart attacks rising sharply, particularly among people aged 31 to 50 years. "Kolkata and Mumbai topped the list of metros when it came to disorders of the circulatory system like heart attacks," the report noted, painting a worrying picture of the growing burden of lifestyle diseases in urban India. Poor diets, stress, and lack of exercise are all contributing factors, creating a serious public health challenge for the country. In addition to kidney and heart diseases, the report also highlighted concerns surrounding cancer. The ACKO Index predicts that <keyword id="20418550" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="cancer-cases" source="keywords">cancer cases</keyword> are expected to rise by 13% between 2020 and 2025, which, coupled with the already high cost of cancer treatment, adds further strain to the healthcare system. <h2>Expanding health coverage</h2>In response to the growing healthcare challenges, the Indian government has introduced measures aimed at reducing the burden on citizens. On September 11, 2024, the Union Cabinet approved health coverage for all senior citizens aged 70 years and above, under the <keyword id="19913233" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Ayushman-Bharat" source="keywords">Ayushman Bharat</keyword> Pradhan Mantri Jan Arogya Yojana (AB PM-JAY). This scheme will provide health insurance regardless of income level, offering Rs 5 lakh per family per year for secondary and tertiary care hospitalisation. This move is a step forward in protecting senior citizens from catastrophic healthcare expenses, but the need for broader reforms remains critical as the out-of-pocket burden for millions of younger citizens continues to mount. (with inputs from agencies)

Healthcare in India faces massive strain as costs rise by 14% annually; most expenses paid out-of-pocket

Days after Trump won his way to the White House, becoming the 47th President of the United States, the US Federal Reserve slashed the interest rates by 25 basis points, bringing them within the range of 4.5-4.75%. This is the second time this year that the Fed has lowered the interest rates, after cutting them down by 50 basis points in September 2024. u Fed chair Jerome Powell noted that monetary policy remains tight as inflation remains elevated at 2.4% as of September 2024, slightly above the 2% mark set by the commission. However, the Fed remained optimistic about the current state of the economy. "The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at 2% over the longer run. The Committee judges that the risks to achieving its employment and inflation goals are roughly in balance. The economic outlook is uncertain, and the Committee is attentive to the risks to both sides of its dual mandate," the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) noted in its press release. The rate cut was along widely anticipated lines, although experts were wary of the Fed's way ahead, given that Donald Trump has been elected as the US President. In the past, he has, on multiple occasions, expressed his desire to yield greater influence on the Fed, apart from publicly criticizing Powell. However, Powell continued to stand his ground, noting that Trump cannot legally sack him. He believed in keeping the Fed independent, at least until his tenure as governor ends in 2028. He highlighted that even if he is explicitly asked by Trump to quit, he won't do so. <h2>Trump's regime to inch up inflation?</h2> Trump's electoral promises, if translated into policies, could spell disaster for the Fed's effort to curtail inflation. Reportedly, Trump has promised to levy aggressive tariffs against US trading partners, particularly China, and even extend his 2017 tax cuts. This could mean higher levels of the federal deficit, which would push up prices, wages, and hence, inflation, even as the Fed tries to consistently bring it under control. Apurva Sheth, Head of Market Perspectives and Research, SAMCO Securities, notes that it wasn't a surprise when the US Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points (bps) to 4.75%. The Fed had given enough clues, and the market too had anticipated these rate cuts. "However, what was surprising was how the <keyword id="23863852" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="US-10-year-bond-yields" source="keywords">US 10-year bond yields</keyword> moved over the last one and a half months, which have been rising relentlessly from 3.6% to almost 4.5% despite the 50 bps cut in the last Fed meeting. It seems that the market is anticipating slower rate cuts going ahead, and maybe there are even chances of inflation rising. The bond yields have cooled off and slipped below the 4.335% mark. This should be bullish for emerging markets like India," he added.

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Retail inflation expected to breach 6% mark in October, says UBI Report

BI India Bureau

SBI economists see Q2 GDP growth slowing down to 6.5%; FY25 growth to be closer to 7%

BI India Bureau

India likely to grow at 7.2% in FY25, says RBI deputy governor

PTI

RBI unlikely to cut interest rate in 2024, food inflation to be deciding factor, says SBI chief Setty

Ira Alok Puranik

RBIs MPC meet concludes today: Repo rate left unchanged at 6.5%

Ira Alok Puranik

RBI MPC announcement today: Rates unlikely to change, RBI may change stance to neutral

BI India Bureau

Status-quo on interest rate likely, say experts ahead of RBI's policy review

PTI

Healthcare in India faces massive strain as costs rise by 14% annually; most expenses paid out-of-pocket

BI India Bureau

US Fed cuts interest rates by 25 bps, Powell notes Trump's victory to have no impact on policy decisions

Ira Alok Puranik

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