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Days after Trump won his way to the White House, becoming the 47th President of the United States, the US Federal Reserve slashed the interest rates by 25 basis points, bringing them within the range of 4.5-4.75%. This is the second time this year that the Fed has lowered the interest rates, after cutting them down by 50 basis points in September 2024. u Fed chair Jerome Powell noted that monetary policy remains tight as inflation remains elevated at 2.4% as of September 2024, slightly above the 2% mark set by the commission. However, the Fed remained optimistic about the current state of the economy. "The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at 2% over the longer run. The Committee judges that the risks to achieving its employment and inflation goals are roughly in balance. The economic outlook is uncertain, and the Committee is attentive to the risks to both sides of its dual mandate," the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) noted in its press release. The rate cut was along widely anticipated lines, although experts were wary of the Fed's way ahead, given that Donald Trump has been elected as the US President. In the past, he has, on multiple occasions, expressed his desire to yield greater influence on the Fed, apart from publicly criticizing Powell. However, Powell continued to stand his ground, noting that Trump cannot legally sack him. He believed in keeping the Fed independent, at least until his tenure as governor ends in 2028. He highlighted that even if he is explicitly asked by Trump to quit, he won't do so. <h2>Trump's regime to inch up inflation?</h2> Trump's electoral promises, if translated into policies, could spell disaster for the Fed's effort to curtail inflation. Reportedly, Trump has promised to levy aggressive tariffs against US trading partners, particularly China, and even extend his 2017 tax cuts. This could mean higher levels of the federal deficit, which would push up prices, wages, and hence, inflation, even as the Fed tries to consistently bring it under control. Apurva Sheth, Head of Market Perspectives and Research, SAMCO Securities, notes that it wasn't a surprise when the US Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points (bps) to 4.75%. The Fed had given enough clues, and the market too had anticipated these rate cuts. "However, what was surprising was how the <keyword id="23863852" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="US-10-year-bond-yields" source="keywords">US 10-year bond yields</keyword> moved over the last one and a half months, which have been rising relentlessly from 3.6% to almost 4.5% despite the 50 bps cut in the last Fed meeting. It seems that the market is anticipating slower rate cuts going ahead, and maybe there are even chances of inflation rising. The bond yields have cooled off and slipped below the 4.335% mark. This should be bullish for emerging markets like India," he added.

US Fed cuts interest rates by 25 bps, Powell notes Trump's victory to have no impact on policy decisions

Global markets are looking ahead to the US Fed's meeting scheduled for Thursday, November 7, 2024, expecting the Jerome Powell-chaired FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) to slash interest rates further by 0.25%. In September this year, the Fed surprised the markets by cutting interest rates by a massive 0.5%, for the first time in 4 years. As per the <keyword id="23807624" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="CME-Fed-Watch-Tool" source="keywords">CME Fed Watch Tool</keyword>, there is now a 99.5% chance that the Fed will reduce the interest rates by around 25 basis points, bringing it within the range of 4.5% to 4.75%. Only 0.5% believe that the Fed might leave the rates unchanged, within their present range of 4.75% to 5%. As for the Fed's December meeting, scheduled for December 18, per the CME Fed Watch tool, 79.5% believe that interest rates would be in the range of 4.25% to 4.5%. Another 20.4% believe that yields will remain in the range of 4.5% and 4.75%. Only 0.1% see the interest rates staying within their current range of 4.75% to 5% <h2>No major changes anticipated</h2>However, it is unlikely that this quarter-point rate cut would bring about any significant financial changes in the US economy. The Fed is again expected to bring down the interest rates by another 25 basis points in their December meeting. This would imply a total rate cut of about 50 basis points by the end of this year. So, why is the Fed not bringing down interest rates by 50 basis points in one fell swoop this time around? Why wait till December to bring down the rates by another 25 basis points? Experts believe that it could stoke inflation, which has seen a sharp decline in the recent past. A steep slash of borrowing rates could accelerate borrowing activity and inject significant cash into the economy at once, pushing up inflation. Per the Fed's recent projections, a total of 4 rate cuts are anticipated in 2025. On a YoY basis, inflation in the US dipped to 2.4%, close to the Fed's target of 2%. With inflationary pressures reined in, the economy growing at the rate of 2.8% during the third quarter of FY24, and the unemployment rate down to 4.1%, the markets see much merit in bringing interest rates down. This is especially important to boost spending, particularly in sectors such as housing and automobiles, where even a slight tinkering in interest rates can drastically impact the amount and volume of loans taken to own them. Data suggests that during Trump's presidency tenure, i.e., between 2017 and 2021, inflation averaged at a rate of 1.9% a year. During the Biden administration, where Kamala Harris served as VP, the inflation is on track to average around 5% a year. Shrisha Acharya, Vice President, Anand Rathi Global Finance, also notes that the results of the impending US elections, which are likely to be declared tomorrow, will impact the yields and stock markets. "The Trump card, coupled with potential Republican control, could mean higher bond yields due to anticipated increases in deficit spending, inflation risks, and potential tax cuts. This could very well jiggle the confidence in U.S. Treasury bonds and thus start a chain effect that will possibly impact global market stability and lead to short-term volatility. On the other hand, Harris’ rise has been met with a stock market rally glued on expectations of economic stability and controlled inflation, with more predictable fiscal policy likely to help in a soft landing," he explains.

What can you expect from the US Fed meeting later this week? Here's all you need to know

<ul class="summary-list"><li>This post originally appeared in the Insider Today newsletter.</li></ul>Happy Friday! Elections can be stressful, so take some tips from new research on how to lower your blood pressure. <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/lower-your-blood-pressure-5-minutes-exercise-a-day-study-2024-11">Daily short, intense workouts</a> can be your best bet to fight disease and improve longevity.In today's big story, the Fed <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/federal-reserve-cuts-interest-rates-quarter-point-powell-inflation-election-2024-11">cutting interest rates yesterday was never really in doubt</a>. What comes next isn't as clear.What's on deck:<ul><li>Markets: Goldman Sachs announced <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/goldman-sachs-partners-revealed-see-full-list-names-diversity-women-2024-11">its newest class of partners</a>.</li><li>Tech: The stock market is already indicating <a target="_blank" rel="noopener" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/big-tech-winners-losers-trump-election-win-according-to-market-2024-11">winners and losers among Big Tech</a>.</li><li>Business: Hiring experts are predicting <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-win-affect-job-hiring-trends-and-employer-confidence-2024-11">a "Trump bump" for the jobs market</a>.</li></ul>But first, more relief … for now.If this was forwarded to you, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/subscription/newsletter/insider-today">sign up here.</a><h3 id="7fa5f018-5b05-4a37-a8dc-d3f89138bcb3">The big story</h3><h2 id="5fd547b9-ec52-41fc-8e08-4f4b27dd8097">The Fed's new conundrum</h2><div type="image" title="Jerome Powell on top of stock market chart going down." height="900" width="1800" msid="115090330" hostid="261" sizebytes="70080"></div>Americans got a bit more relief from the Fed, but questions are swirling about what the president-elect means for future plans.The Federal Reserve <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/federal-reserve-cuts-interest-rates-quarter-point-powell-inflation-election-2024-11">cut interest rates by 25 basis points Thursday</a>, its second-straight reduction since September in a move that was largely expected. Additional rate cuts aren't as clear, though, as Donald Trump's proposed widespread tariffs <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-inflation-interest-rates-fed-rate-cuts-fomc-meeting-outlook-2024-11">could slow down the Fed's plans</a>.Economists have said Trump's 10-20% blanket tariff on most imported goods will cause inflation to flare up as producers and importers pass the cost of the tax onto consumers. Prior to the election, Nobel economist Paul Krugman said Trump's tariff plans would result in an "inflationary shock that is bigger than almost anything else you could do through federal policy."It's not just speculation from economists. The market is indicating inflation could lead the Fed to keep borrowing rates high. Treasury yields soared the day after the election, a sign Wall Street sees interest rates staying elevated.Interest-rate traders have also recalibrated their expectations. The chances of a 25-point December rate cut went from 83% at the start of the month down to as much as 63% yesterday following the Fed's announcement, according to the CME FedWatch tool. (It currently stands around 75%.)<div type="image" title="Photo of Donald Trump" height="1279" width="1920" msid="115090327" hostid="261" sizebytes="95086"></div>Still, speculating on what could come from a president-elect is a tricky game.Greg McBride, chief financial analyst at <a target="_blank" href="http://Bankrate.com">Bankrate.com</a>, told Insider Today that Fed Chair Jerome Powell didn't indicate a pause in cuts was coming in December during Thursday's press conference. Powell also emphasized the election won't impact the central bank's near-term actions, McBride added."Until there are policy specifics being passed into law, there is nothing for the Fed to put in their economic models and they won't speculate or assume anything in the interim," McBride wrote via email.There's also the question of whether Trump's tariff would be as inflationary as some fear. During his first term, the former president issued tariffs against China that didn't cause prices to spike.Trump's proposals this time around are much more aggressive, but it's not clear what will actually be put in place."Nobody knows what will be implemented and what is just posturing for negotiation," McBride added.Dominique Lapointe, director of macro strategy for Manulife Investment Management, told Insider Today via email the firm's base case is still a 25-point cut in December. The Fed would change course in reaction to tariffs only if they are official and making an impact, meaning the central bank's policy likely wouldn't change until mid-2025, Lapointe added.One thing that is clear: <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/powell-wont-resign-federal-reserve-step-down-trump-election-2024-11">Powell's not leaving</a>.When a reporter asked the Fed leader if he would resign if Trump, who has been critical of him, asked him to step down, his response was simple: "No."<h3 id="77f31a4c-8462-4e3d-a71f-838cb79493fb">News brief</h3><h2 id="1fcd294b-3f53-425f-9f20-4093e8623b59">Top headlines</h2><ul><li>Democrats wished the election was about jobs. <a target="_blank" rel="noopener" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/how-trump-won-election-high-prices-cost-of-living-unemployment-2024-11">Trump's win showed it was about prices</a>.</li><li><a target="_blank" rel="noopener" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-economy-local-government-debt-rescue-trump-us-presidential-election-2024-11">China announced a $1.4 trillion stimulus package</a> to boost its economy on the heels of Trump's election.</li><li>Airbnb reported its earnings. <a target="_blank" rel="noopener" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/airbnb-earnings-shares-most-interesting-things-cohost-2024-11">Here are four highlights</a>.</li><li>Trump said he will divide Russia from China. <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/donald-trump-plan-divide-china-russia-axis-is-likely-fail-2024-11">It's a tough bromance to break</a>.</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/peter-thiel-prediction-correct-election-trump-harris-2024-11">Peter Thiel's 'contrarian'</a> election prediction came true.</li></ul><h2 id="8120060b-ae66-48dc-b149-f0489a30ffa2">3 things in markets</h2><div type="image" title="Photo of MAGA hat on exchange desk" height="655" width="1000" msid="115090331" hostid="261" sizebytes="44410"></div><ol><li>Morningstar thinks you should stay the course with your investment plan. Trump's win sent the stock market surging, but that <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-trade-election-investing-stock-market-strategy-sp500-valuations-morningstar-2024-11">doesn't mean you should rethink your investing strategy</a>, Morningstar Senior US Market Strategist Dave Sekera said. His call for restraint is partly due to how high stock valuations currently are, although he does see opportunity among small-caps.</li><li>The new Goldman execs who just got the call of a lifetime. Goldman Sachs tapped<a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/goldman-sachs-partners-revealed-see-full-list-names-diversity-women-2024-11"> 95 people to join its exclusive partnership</a> on Thursday, a record high under CEO David Solomon. Twenty-six of the new partners are women, a group closely watched after a series of high-profile female partner exits.</li><li>Trump's election might be Citi's saving grace. The bank has spent more than $7.4 billion addressing regulators' concerns, specifically about its data and risk problems. <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-election-citi-jane-fraser-regulators-frc-occ-2024-11">Donald Trump could ease that pain</a>. The president-elect has signaled he'd cut down on Wall Street oversight, previously pledging he'd eliminate 10 rules for each new one.</li></ol><h2 id="f4b54806-7f81-450c-ba32-92560d4fae9b">3 things in tech</h2><div type="image" title="Musk and Trump." height="2499" width="3329" msid="115090332" hostid="261" sizebytes="268836"></div><ol><li>How Elon Musk swung Pennsylvania for Trump. The tech tycoon <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/elon-musk-pennsylvania-america-pac-donald-trump-harris-2024-11">spent millions on the Keystone State</a> to deliver it to Trump, launching a last-minute canvassing effort and untested ground-game techniques. Musk's strategy could usher in a "new era" in campaign spending, one political scientist told BI.</li><li>Big Tech's biggest winners and losers after Trump's victory. Which companies stand to gain the most under a new Trump presidency? BI looked at the two-day stock performance of <a target="_blank" rel="noopener" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/big-tech-winners-losers-trump-election-win-according-to-market-2024-11">many of the largest tech companies to find out</a>.</li><li>Trump's plan to "never ban" TikTok will be tough to fulfill, legal experts say. The former president campaigned on the promise that TikTok would be here to stay. <a target="_blank" rel="noopener" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/donald-trump-block-tiktok-ban-legal-experts-2024-11">But legal experts told BI he's only got two options to try and save it</a> — and neither of them are straightforward.</li></ol><h2 id="9260fa45-d397-4b3c-b4f8-4bb193976216">3 things in business</h2><div type="image" title="Image of Walmart sign outside store" height="1280" width="1920" msid="115090336" hostid="261" sizebytes="228442"></div><ol><li>Retail giants prepare for Trump 2.0. Tariffs are the biggest concern for superstores like Walmart, Target, and Costco. If the president-elect follows through on his campaign promises, consumers could foot the bill of high tariffs through higher prices. On the other hand, tax cuts could spur spending — <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-win-retail-impact-walmart-costco-target-tariffs-tax-cuts-2024-11">but they'd take many months to see results</a>.</li><li>The job market under Trump. Hiring experts expect a "Trump bump" as employers get comfortable posting openings now that the election's outcome is clear. They forecast a postelection hiring rush and <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-win-affect-job-hiring-trends-and-employer-confidence-2024-11">increased demand in some sectors</a>, particularly tech.</li><li>David Zaslav is optimistic about Trump's effect on Big Media. The Warner Bros. Discovery CEO wanted a president who was more open to M&amp;A, since his company has been eyeing consolidation for a while. A second <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/wbd-trump-zaslav-consolidation-earnings-2024-11">Trump administration might provide that opportunity</a>, Zaslav said on WBD's earnings call, but it's too early to be certain.</li></ol><h2 id="1ad7b482-3f4b-44b4-81b6-a864aa386478">In other news</h2><ul><li>The Polymarket 'whale' actually made $85 million, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/polymarket-whale-banked-85-million-profit-trump-president-election-win-2024-11">far more than originally thought</a>.</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/harris-lost-biden-unpopularity-trump-election-2024-11">Harris couldn't escape</a> Biden's unpopularity.</li><li>Investors accuse the ex-CEO of the company that helped take Trump Media public of <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/ex-ceo-patrick-orlando-lawsuit-trump-media-investors-shares-2024-11">stiffing them out of millions of shares</a>.</li></ul><h2 id="9f5d80ac-3466-429f-a50a-2ffbb70c65ff">What's happening today</h2><ul><li>Paramount, Sony, and other companies report earnings.</li><li>Grammy Award nominations are announced.</li></ul>The Insider Today team: Dan DeFrancesco, deputy editor and anchor, in New York. Jordan Parker Erb, editor, in New York. Hallam Bullock, senior editor, in London. Ella Hopkins, associate editor, in London. Amanda Yen, fellow, in New York. Milan Sehmbi, fellow, in London.

Fed cuts rates again, but Trump's tariff plan sparks inflation fears and market uncertainty

<ul class="summary-list"><li>The postelection rally staggered on Tuesday as bond yields spiked.</li><li>Some parts of the Trump trade continued to gain, such as bitcoin and the US dollar.</li></ul>The five-day election rally sputtered on Tuesday as the market turned its attention toward incoming economic data.Some parts of the Trump trade maintained momentum, with crypto and FX traders cheering on the president-elect's policies. But while <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/currencies/btc-usd?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">bitcoin</a> and the US dollar continued to push higher, equity indexes retreated <a target="_blank" href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-11-11/stock-market-today-dow-s-p-live-updates?srnd=phx-markets">Monday's closing highs</a>.The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost nearly 350 points after hitting a record high over 44,000 in the previous session. The post-election rally in financials and small-caps also stumbled.Hurting the Trump bump on Tuesday was the surge in bond yields. The 10-year Treasury yield spiked aggressively, surging 13 basis points. The sharp rise comes a day ahead of October's consumer inflation report. Wall Street is eyeing for any upside price surprise, which could unwind interest rate cut outlooks.Economists expect a 2.5% year-over-year jump in Wednesday's CPI data, compared to a rise of 2.4% in the prior month."The inflation numbers might tick up a little this week as some areas like transportation, consumer durables, and rent have been harder to get under control. After steady progress, we might be leveling off, but the Fed has made progress toward their target," said Scott Helfstein, Global X head of investment strategy. "There is no reason to believe that one month of data will change the Fed strategy, and a 25 bp cut in December remains the base case."Still, the market indicates a 37.9% chance that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates steady next month. Trump's policies are expected to have a potentially inflationary impact, and the market is debating whether interest rates will remain higher for longer as the Fed is again forced to confront rising prices."Inflation is not tamed," Apollo's co-president Scott Kleinman told <a target="_blank" href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2024-11-12/apollo-s-scott-kleinman-says-inflation-is-not-tamed-video">Bloomberg TV</a>. "The Fed can say what it wants. You just have to open your eyes and look around."Here's where US indexes stood at the 4:00 p.m. closing bell on Tuesday:<ul><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/s&amp;p_500?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">S&amp;P 500</a>: 5,983.99, down 0.29% </li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/dow_jones?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Dow Jones Industrial Average</a>: 43,910.98, down 0.86% (-382.15 points)</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/nasdaq_composite?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Nasdaq composite</a>: 19,281.40, down 0.09% </li></ul>Here's what else happened today:<ul><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-trump-rally-economy-interest-rates-inflation-david-rosenberg-2024-11?_gl=1*1p9ha58*_ga*MTMxNDIwNDI1Ni4xNjc1Njg3OTU4*_ga_E21CV80ZCZ*MTczMTQ0MTEzMi44MjQuMS4xNzMxNDQyODAzLjYwLjAuMA..">The postelection rally is disconnected from fundamentals,</a> David Rosenberg said.</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/dogecoin-price-market-value-ford-crypto-boom-trump-elon-musk-2024-11?_gl=1*1r8abo1*_ga*MTMxNDIwNDI1Ni4xNjc1Njg3OTU4*_ga_E21CV80ZCZ*MTczMTQ0MTEzMi44MjQuMS4xNzMxNDQyODYzLjYwLjAuMA..">Dogecoin is worth more than Ford as Trump's win propels total crypto market cap to $3 trillion.</a></li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/tesla-stock-elon-musk-political-influence-trump-ai-autonomous-2024-11?_gl=1*1nao6vg*_ga*MTMxNDIwNDI1Ni4xNjc1Njg3OTU4*_ga_E21CV80ZCZ*MTczMTQ0MTEzMi44MjQuMS4xNzMxNDQyOTU2LjYwLjAuMA..">Tesla stock could soar 50% amid Elon Musk's new political influence</a>, Morgan Stanley says.</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/hertz-stock-price-tesla-ev-fleet-q3-earnings-profit-revenue-2024-11?_gl=1*1phxwrx*_ga*MTMxNDIwNDI1Ni4xNjc1Njg3OTU4*_ga_E21CV80ZCZ*MTczMTQ0MTEzMi44MjQuMS4xNzMxNDQzMDMyLjU4LjAuMA..">Hertz's failed Tesla bet weighs down its earnings, tanking shares in the car rental company.</a></li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-policies-economy-recession-inflation-stock-market-outlook-nouriel-roubini-2024-11">"Dr. Doom" Nouriel Roubini warns of stagflation under Trump's policies.</a></li></ul>In commodities, bonds, and crypto:<ul><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">West Texas Intermediate</a> crude oil inched up 0.21% to $68.18 a barrel. <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Brent crude</a>, the international benchmark, increased by 0.17% to $71.95 a barrel.</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/gold-price?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Gold</a> was shed 0.5% hitting $2,604.7 an ounce.</li><li>The 10-year Treasury yield spiked 13 basis points to 4.441%</li></ul><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/currencies/btc-usd?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Bitcoin</a> rose 2.79% to $89,552.

Stock market today: Election rally stumbles as bond yields spike ahead of key inflation data

Earlier today, RBIs MPC (Monetary Policy Committee) decided to leave the <keyword id="20094323" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="repo-rate" source="keywords">repo rate</keyword> unchanged at 6.5%, while changing the policy stance toward neutral. The aim, as <keyword id="19899808" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="RBI" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="RBI" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="RBI">RBI</keyword> maintained, was to strike a balance between taming domestic <keyword id="19895000" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="inflation" source="keywords">inflation</keyword> and maintaining target growth. A neutral stance gives the RBI the flexibility to adjust <keyword id="19950650" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="interest-rates" source="keywords">interest rates</keyword> based on the direction of inflation, as opposed to its previous stand of withdrawing accommodation, which eliminates any possibility of rate cuts. While a change of stance doesn’t necessarily mean a cut should follow, most experts view this as a prelude to a possible rate cut in December this year, or even February next year. Says Deepak Ramaraju, Senior Fund Manager, Shriram AMC, "The RBI stance has changed to neutral, indicating that its primary focus is to balance growth and inflation. Growth has been resilient and given the short-term pressure on inflation, RBI may continue to hold interest rates unchanged in Q3 FY 2025. Based on inflation moderating below 4.5% and course of geo-political concerns, the RBI may undertake a rate cut decision in Q4 FY 2025". So, what does this mean for your investments? How will this decision impact your existing funds? We take a look. <h2>Good time to invest in high-yield deposits</h2>This is a good time to invest in high-yield <keyword id="19975805" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="fixed-deposits" source="keywords">fixed deposits</keyword> and long-term bonds. That's because with rate cuts imminent in the upcoming quarters, you'd be able to lock-in your funds with the prevailing, relatively higher interest rate right now. As for the yellow metal or gold, it is generally considered a safe haven asset during turbulent market times. That's why you should consider making it a part of your investments, or increasing its weightage in your overall portfolio, depending on your needs. Vijay Kuppa, CEO, InCred Money highlights that with deposit rates at elevated levels, one has an ideal opportunity for locking in high-yield fixed deposits."At the same time, high borrowing costs also make a compelling case for increasing debt allocations in investment portfolios, which offer a buffer against potential equity market corrections, which might occur due to <keyword id="19955176" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="geopolitical-tensions" source="keywords">geopolitical tensions</keyword>", he continues. With the chronic crisis in Middle-East flaring up again, as Israel looks to target Lebanon and Iran, you can expect some volatility and downturns in the <keyword id="19949641" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="equity-markets" source="keywords">equity markets</keyword>, both in India and globally, in the times to come. Over the last 5 days, Sensex has dipped by over 1,900 points, or about 2.38%, and Nifty has also gone down by 2.23%. With this set to continue for some time, you can reconsider and evaluate your investments in debt. Mahendra Kumar Jajoo, CIO – Fixed Income, Mirae Asset Investment Managers (India) explains that the market is confident of a rate cut in the times to come, and that the <keyword id="20066775" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="bond-market" source="keywords">bond market</keyword> has already started pricing in the same. "We have already seen some of this already, with 10Y GOI yields at around 6.75%, having already eased significantly in last few months. So, if investors wait for rate cut to invest, it may be too late for them. Also, with corporate credit picking up, investing in corporate bond funds for a period of 3-5 years can also serve the investor well. Investors having a long term investment horizon and appropriate risk appetite can also invest in gilt funds", he continues. <h2>Dont exit the markets yet </h2>Though short-term biases of FII may continue towards Chinese markets keeping pressure on the equity markets, the resilient domestic flows can defy deep corrections in the equity markets despite high valuations. The markets may trend positive with subsequent rate cuts by the US Fed later this year. Hence, it wont be advisable to completely exit the equity markets during these times, notes Avnish Jain, Head - Fixed Income, Canara Robeco Mutual Fund Jain advises to take a buy on dips approach towards the stock markets i.e. adding quality stocks to your portfolio during times of market downturn. Shrikant Chouhan, Head Equity Research, Kotak Securities says that the current market texture is volatile, hence level based trading would be the ideal strategy for the day traders. "For the bulls now, 25,050/81,700 would be the key level to watch out. Above the same market could retest the level of 25,200-25,225/82,000-82,300. On the flip side, 24,900/81,200 would be the key support zone for the traders. Below the same, the selling pressure is likely to accelerate. Below the same, market could slip till 24,800-24,780/81,000-80,700", explains Chouhan. <h2>Time to buy a home? Maybe! </h2>No rate cut can spell some good news for homebuyers who are looking to get their hands on real estate during the festive season. Even as home loan rates remain steady as of now, homebuyers may have to wait until December or beyond to get any tangible relief in their home loan EMIs. Vimal Nadar, Head of Research, Colliers India explains that a change in stance from “withdrawal of accommodation” to “neutral” indicates its clear direction for a possible reduction in interest rates in the foreseeable future. This ongoing stability in repo rate should provide a significant thrust to residential real estate during these festive months as home loan interest rates are likely to remain steady. "Typically, Q4, marked by higher inclination of homebuyers to wrap-up property purchases during the auspicious period combined with instantaneous liquidity benefit aided by developers offering attractive discounts, has historically provided the final push to housing sales across the major markets in the country", he added.

RBI leaves repo rate unchanged. What does this mean for you?

<ul class="summary-list"><li>US stocks rose as September's wholesale price data showed cooling inflation.</li><li>The producer price index was flat, and core PPI rose less than expected in September.</li></ul>US stocks edged higher on Friday after Producer Price Index data for September came in lower than expected, signaling a continued cooling of wholesale inflation.The producer price index was flat month-over-month, below economist estimates of a 0.1% rise. Meanwhile, Core PPI rose 0.1% in September, compared to an expected rise of 0.2%.TradeStation strategist David Russell told Business Insider the data supports another interest rate cut from the Federal Reserve."CPI might have seemed hot, but PPI was not. Overall, these numbers are getting less impactful as inflation moderates. The Fed could still be on track for 25 basis points at the next two meetings. Yields have surged lately, but it's not clear they have much more reason for continued upside," Russell said.Investors are also digesting <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/jpmorgan-earnings-q3-jamie-dimon-economy-geopolitics-banking-wall-street-2024-10">earnings results from JPMorgan,</a> Wells Fargo, and BlackRock. All three stocks moved higher after the results, which beat analyst estimates on most fronts.JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon praised his bank's performance in the earnings release, but <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/jpmorgan-earnings-q3-jamie-dimon-economy-geopolitics-banking-wall-street-2024-10">warned that geopolitical conditions</a> are "treacherous and getting worse."Apart from earnings results, retail sales data, set to be released on October 17, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-economy-outlook-retail-sales-no-landing-inflation-jobs-report-2024-10">is the next big data release for investors to watch.</a>Bank of America analysts expect September retail sales data to show a 0.8% surge, while consensus estimates expect just 0.2% growth.Here's where US indexes stood shortly after the 9:30 a.m. opening bell on Friday:<ul><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/s&amp;p_500?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">S&amp;P 500</a>: 5,785.90, up 1.25% </li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/dow_jones?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Dow Jones Industrial Average</a>: 42,617.12, up 0.38% (+163 points)</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/nasdaq_composite?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Nasdaq composite</a>: 18,219.70, down 0.34% </li></ul>Here's what else is going on:<ul><li><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/elon-musk-tesla-robotaxi-cybercar-analysts-self-driving-fleet-ai-2024-10">Tesla unveiled its robotaxi in an event Thursday night, but Wall Street isn't impressed.</a></li><li><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/chinese-carmaker-chery-russia-sanctions-west-assets-seizure-volkswagen-mercedes-2024-10">A Chinese automaker has taken over Russian plants abandoned by Volkswagen and Mercedes.</a></li><li><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/currencies/russia-economy-moscow-china-yuan-sanctions-bank-transactions-ruble-dollar-2024-10">Russia's ruble hit its lowest level in a year against the dollar and the yuan.</a></li></ul>In commodities, bonds, and crypto:<ul><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price">West Texas Intermediate</a> crude oil was down 0.69% to $75.33 a barrel. <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price">Brent crude</a>, the international benchmark, was lower by 0.69% to $78.85 a barrel.</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/gold-price">Gold</a> was up 0.97% to $2,664.90 an ounce.</li><li>The 10-year Treasury yield was higher by 3 basis points at 4.101%.</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/currencies/btc-usd">Bitcoin</a> was higher by 1.78% to $61,351.</li></ul>

Stock market today: US stocks edge up after wholesale inflation comes in cool

<ul class="summary-list"><li>The upcoming inflation report will help determine the Fed's next move. </li><li>Friday's surprisingly strong jobs data has slashed bets of a half-point rate cut.</li></ul>The labor market's unexpected surge in September has left investors wondering about the path of Federal Reserve policy after the central bank said it's shifted focus to the labor market after years of battling inflation. However, following the strong payroll report, market commentators say they're still concerned that inflation may not be completely in the rear-view — and next week's consumer price index report will be key. The US saw an astonishing 254,000 new jobs added last month, smashing consensus estimates of 147,000. The unemployment rate dropped to 4.1%.According to economist Mohamed El-Erian, this permits the Fed to once again devote some of its attention to fighting inflation. Inflation concerns took a back seat in recent months as the central bank <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/fed-rate-cut-explained-inflation-labor-market-conditions-outlook-recession-2024-9">shifted focus</a> toward what appeared to be a deteriorating labor picture. But with September's jobs report crushing expectations, concerns may <a target="_blank" href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-10-04/summers-says-50-basis-point-cut-in-september-was-a-mistake">have been premature</a>. "For the Fed, it means push back much harder against pressure from the markets to put you in the single-mandate box," El-Erian told <a target="_blank" href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-10-04/el-erian-warns-fed-after-jobs-data-inflation-is-not-dead">Bloomberg TV</a>. "Enough talk about 'inflation is dead.' Inflation is not dead. Enough talk about the Fed should only be concerned about maximum employment."UBS suggested that the upcoming consumer price index report will be the next big thing for markets. "CPI for September will be a key data release. If prices rise faster than expected on top of the stronger labor data, chances for the Fed to skip the November meeting will increase," UBS senior economist Brian Rose said in a Friday note.Bank of America analysts wrote on Friday that the Fed may have panicked last month and that another jumbo cut is probably not warranted. The bank adjusted its forecast for the November Fed meeting to call for a 25-basis-point move after previously predicting 50 basis points. Few analysts have implied that the Fed will leave interest rates unchanged next month, but investors have markedly readjusted expectations.Virtually no trader projects that the Fed will slash interest rates by a half-point in November, although the odds of another big move stood at around 33% before Friday's jobs report. <a target="_blank" href="https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html?redirect=/trading/interest-rates/countdown-to-fomc.html">CME FedWatch data</a> now indicates a 99% chance of a quarter-point cut.Just 1% expect rates to be unchanged. How inflation data could compound these forecasts will be known on Thursday, when the CPI report comes out.Though banks such as Barclays have suggested that the job market's strength has the potential to renew inflation concerns down the line, a large upswing is by no means a consensus call.For instance, Bank of America forecasts a 0.1% and 0.3% month-over-month gain in September's headline and core CPI, respectively. Those moves shouldn't be enough to impact the Fed's thinking.Still, with inflation still slightly above the central bank's 2% target , some analysts are cautioning investors not to forget about price pressures. According to Principal Asset Management's Seema Shah, the labor surprise only makes this more relevant."Markets will need to keep a closer eye on inflation as, now, there are policy risks on both sides of the economy," the chief global strategist said.

'Inflation is not dead': Consumer prices are still in focus for investors despite the Fed's labor-market pivot 

<ul class="summary-list"><li>US stocks jumped to record highs on Wednesday. </li><li>Indexes hit fresh all-time highs ahead of the key inflation report for September due Thursday. </li></ul>US stocks jumped on Wednesday as traders looked ahead to coming inflation data and took in the minutes of the Federal Reserve's last meeting. All three benchmark indexes surged to end the day higher. The Dow Jones Industrial Average jumped more than 400 points to a record close, while the S&amp;P 500 also notched a fresh all-time closing high. Investors pushed past concerns about Google parent Alphabet to take the Nasdaq Composite 0.6% higher. The Department of Justice on Wednesday said it's considering breaking up the tech titan to remedy its status as a monopoly in the search engine space. Bond yields rose, with the 10-year Treasury yield up three basis points to 4.071%.Here's where US indexes stood at the 4:00 p.m. closing bell on Wednesday:<ul><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/s&amp;p_500?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">S&amp;P 500</a>: 5,792.04, up 0.71% </li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/dow_jones?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Dow Jones Industrial Average</a>: 42,512.00, up 1.03% (+431 points)</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/nasdaq_composite?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Nasdaq composite</a>: 18,291.62, up 0.6% </li></ul>Investors have an eye on Thursday's consumer price index report, an inflation reading that will serve as a key input when the Fed meets to discuss its next rates move. <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-outlook-volatility-cpi-inflation-september-jobs-report-bofa-2024-10">The stakes of the next inflation reading have risen</a> after the big September jobs number, and Wall Street could be in for some volatility in the event of an upside surprise, Bank of America said this week. Economists are expecting consumer prices to have risen 0.1% for the month and 2.3% year-per-year in September, slightly cooler than the increases recorded in August."The Federal Reserve appears to remain comfortable with where inflation is and trending," Josh Hirt, a senior US economist at Vanguard, said in a note. "Although inflation remains elevated, we do not see a material effect on the Fed's trajectory of rate cuts."Markets also gained some confidence over the path of rate cuts after the Fed released the minutes of its September FOMC meeting. Central bankers predicted inflation would fall to 2% by 2026, while risks to economic strength were "tilted to the downside."Some officials, though, said they would have preferred a 25 basis-point cut at the Fed's last meeting, while "a few others indicated they could have supported such a decision," the minutes said."[W]e think that FOMC is still spending too much time looking in the rear-view mirror, taking too much comfort from the recent strength of the economy, and not paying enough attention to leading indicators pointing to weakness ahead, and the likely lagged impact of earlier tightening," Oliver Allen, a senior US economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, said in a note. "We expect the Fed to be acting for far more urgency to avert a significant slowdown around the turn of this year, as the economic data continue to head in that direction."Markets are largely expecting the Fed to cut rates by 25 basis points at their next two meetings, bringing the Federal funds rate range to 4.25%- 4.5% by the end of the year. According to the CME FedWatch tool, the odds for another jumbo-sized rate cut in 2024 have fallen to zero. Here's what else is going on:<ul><li><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/bonds/catastrophe-bonds-hurricane-milton-helene-florida-damages-insurance-loss-2024-10">Owners of catastrophe bonds are staring down big losses</a> as Hurricane Milton barrels toward Florida.</li><li>One of Wall Street's biggest bears is <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/wall-street-biggest-bear-jpmorgan-stock-market-outlook-interest-rates-2024-10">turning upbeat on the stock market for the first time in 2 years</a>.</li><li><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/tesla-stock-robotaxi-day-expectations-elon-musk-ai-fsd-tsla-2024-10?_gl=1*3hd80z*_ga*OTI1ODIwOTQ2LjE3MTYzOTg2NjU.*_ga_E21CV80ZCZ*MTcyODUwMDAwMy40MjguMS4xNzI4NTAyMjcyLjYwLjAuMA..">Tesla is approaching its "most hyped" event in a decade</a> as the carmarker readies to unveil its robotaxi.</li><li><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/bond-king-bill-gross-bull-market-defensive-high-yielding-investments-2024-10">Billionaire "Bond King" Bill Gross recommends four defensive investments</a> for a bull market he sees losing steam.</li><li><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-economy-moscow-bank-transactions-sanctions-trade-china-singapore-2024-10">Russia has lost another banking partner</a> as more lenders turn their back on Moscow over fear of sanctions.</li><li><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/currencies/bitcoin-anonymous-peter-todd-hbo-documentary-satoshi-nakamoto-crypto-2024-10">A new HBO documentary suggests bitcoin's creator is Canadian programmer Peter Todd</a>.</li></ul>In commodities, bonds, and crypto:<ul><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price">West Texas Intermediate</a> crude oil traded slightly lower at 73.47 a barrel. <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price">Brent crude</a>, the international benchmark, fell 0.5% to $76.79 a barrel.</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/gold-price">Gold</a> slumped 0.55% to $2,607.68 an ounce.</li><li>The 10-year Treasury yield edged up three basis points to 4.071%.</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/currencies/btc-usd">Bitcoin</a> declined 2% to $60,91.</li></ul>

Stock market today: US stocks close at all-time highs ahead of key inflation update 

<ul class="summary-list"><li>President-elect Donald Trump said he would implement tariffs on imported goods.</li><li>Economists said the proposals could boost inflation and raise prices for consumers.</li></ul>One of the first policies President-elect <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/election-results-trump-harris-presidential-election-2024-11">Donald Trump</a> is expected to enact after being sworn into office is imposing <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/cost-expensive-goods-price-impact-presidential-election-scenarios-trump-harris-2024-10#imported-goods">taxes on imported goods</a>.Many economists say these tariffs, as well as some of his other proposals, could kick-start another bout of inflation and interest-rate hikes.Trump has said that his proposals would not impact US prices. "I am going to put tariffs on other countries coming into our country, and that has nothing to do with taxes to us. That is a tax on another country," he said in an August speech.Some experts have argued <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-tax-plan-tarriffs-benefits-top-earners-study-2024-10">otherwise</a>. Economists and investors project that taxes imposed on imports will be passed on to American consumers in the form of higher prices. In an economic chain reaction, households would then pay higher interest rates on borrowing of all kinds as the Fed moves to tame that newly rekindled inflation.<h2 id="28eee089-e5e3-42d1-bc61-18122840af26">Ramping up tariffs from Trump's first term is expected to eat into Americans' wallets</h2>On the campaign trail, one of Trump's cornerstone proposals was a 60% <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/where-does-trump-vance-stand-on-china-tariffs-inflation-taxes-2024-7">tariff</a> on goods imported from China and a 10% to 20% tariff on imports from other countries.The US Census Bureau reported that broad tariffs would likely affect the prices of automobiles, drugs for human and veterinary use, food and beverages, furniture, and household appliances.Trump could announce these changes as soon as he takes office because they would not require congressional approval, but because implementation could take time, consumers would not see higher prices immediately.An <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.piie.com/sites/default/files/2024-09/wp24-20.pdf">analysis</a> from the nonpartisan Peterson Institute examined Trump's proposed 60% tariff on goods imported from China and estimated that it would boost inflation by 0.4 percentage points in 2025. The estimate does not include Trump's proposal for a 10% to 20% tariff on other imports.Markets are also <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/bonds/surging-treasury-yields-after-trump-win-show-borrowers-may-not-get-relief-2024-11">expecting higher inflation</a> under Trump; bond yields surged following Trump's victory. That led to the 30-year fixed mortgage rate rising, meaning homebuyers are on track to see higher interest rates on loans.An <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://taxpolicycenter.org/taxvox/tpc-trump-tariffs-would-raise-household-taxes-and-slow-imports">analysis</a> by the nonpartisan Tax Policy Center found that Trump's policies would decrease posttax incomes by an average of $1,800 in 2025. A separate <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.americanprogressaction.org/article/trumps-tariff-would-cost-the-typical-american-household-roughly-1500-each-year/">analysis</a> by the left-leaning Center for American Progress said that his tariff plans could cost the typical American household an extra $1,500 a year.Tariffs are typically used to raise government revenue and bolster domestic manufacturing. Trump enacted them in his first term as part of his "America First" policies, including a 25% tariff on Chinese goods that ultimately <a target="_blank" rel="" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-tariff-trade-war-risk-china-exports-great-depression-economy-2024-5">led to a trade war</a> between the two economies. While they did not significantly impact inflation, they did raise taxes for consumers. The Tax Foundation <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="c-link" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/where-does-trump-vance-stand-on-china-tariffs-inflation-taxes-2024-7">estimated</a> that Trump's tariffs during his first term amounted to a nearly $80 billion tax increase on Americans buying Chinese imports.Trump's win is also expected to influence the Federal Reserve's upcoming decisions on interest rates. While it's too soon for the Fed to make any adjustments since Trump has not yet implemented any tariffs, members of the Federal Open Market Committee will likely begin discussing how Trump's future economic policies could affect consumers — including whether the central bank would need to hike interest rates in the future in response to inflationary pressure.The Fed is expected to <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/interest-rate-cuts-federal-reserve-election-jerome-powell-inflation-jobs-2024-11">cut interest rates by 25 basis points</a> on Thursday, and Fed chair Jerome Powell will likely offer some insight into the Fed's direction following Trump's victory.However, the future of the Federal Reserve <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/interest-rate-cut-trump-fed-powell-reaction-independence-history-2024-9">is uncertain under Trump</a>. The president-elect has previously suggested that he would like to have a say over interest-rate decisions, something presidents do not currently have. This raises the question of whether the central bank would continue to remain politically independent.Americans will likely learn more about what to expect from Trump as the year comes to a close. While Trump has maintained that his policies will help the economy and leave Americans better off, the Nobel Prize-winning economist Joseph Stiglitz <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-presidency-policies-inflation-economy-americans-joseph-stiglitz-letter-2024-6">previously told Business Insider</a> that the "general consensus" among experts is that "the Trump administration would be more inflationary.""The broad assessment of the consequences of that is that the Fed would be forced to raise interest rates, and all that combined would still serve to increase inflation even as unemployment increased and GDP slowed," he said.

Get ready for inflation and interest rates to rise again

Indian banks are expected to have steady growth in earnings and returns over the next 3–4 years, according to a recent report by Jefferies. It expects a 13% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) in loan growth for banks between FY24 and FY27, helmed by a supportive environment and expected adjustments in interest rates. "We expect steady growth in earnings and stable returns, Over FY24-27, the banks we cover should see 13% CAGRin loans We factor 25-50 bps cut in rates, &amp; depending on timing, NIMs will move," the report said. Depending on the timing, these rate cuts could impact banks' <keyword id="20076541" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="net-interest-margins" source="keywords">net interest margins</keyword> (NIMs), which measure the difference between interest income generated and interest paid to depositors. The report also notes that banks' net interest income (NII), a critical metric that is reflective of how much a bank earns from its lending, could grow at a steady 12% CAGR, which would support overall earnings growth. <h2>Rate cuts probable next year</h2>Per SBI Mutual Fund's monthly outlook for November 2024, while markets were initially speculating possible rate reductions in December this year or February next year these chances now stand dampened due to two reasons. First, elevated CPI numbers in September, which stood at a nine-month high, underlined the stickiness of food inflation. Secondly, RBI governor Das recently highlighted his hawkish stance at a conference, stating that "rate cuts at this stage would be premature and risky’. The report further adds that February 2025, or even April, would be a better time to discuss repo rate cuts in India. Even <keyword id="19985925" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="bank-credit-growth" source="keywords">bank credit growth</keyword> has continued to outpace deposit growth for two years now. However, they seem to be inching closer in the recent past. For instance, in October 2024, while bank credit growth remained at 12.7%, the deposit growth rate followed closely at 11.8%. This also means that banks are witnessing an elevated bank credit-to-deposit ratio, standing at 77% in October. <h2>Risks in unsecured lending </h2>However, Jefferies noted some areas of caution that could influence growth in other revenue streams, particularly fees. Growth in fees may be at risk due to expected declines in the disbursal of unsecured loans, which generally carry higher interest rates and generate higher fees for banks. October saw stress and defaults rising in the unsecured lending space, prompting the RBI to intervene. As a result, unsecured loans by banks have only grown by 12.1%, the lowest since the pandemic. Despite these risks, the report expects banks' return on assets (ROA) and return on equity (ROE) to remain healthy, underscoring the sector's stable profitability potential. The report also highlights that while the Nifty Banks index has risen by 19% over the past year, it has still underperformed the broader Nifty index, which delivered 27% returns in the same period. BSE Bankex has been along similar lines, generating returns worth 19% over one year. While the Nifty banks' index has a YTD (yield to date) of 7.63%, it continues to trail Nifty's YTD of 11.30%

Indian banks to have steady growth in earning over next 3-4 years, fees from unsecured lending may dip, notes Jefferies report

<ul class="summary-list"><li>US stocks rose Friday, with S&amp;P 500 and Dow Jones hitting record highs.</li><li>JPMorgan and Wells Fargo reported strong earnings that eased fears of a consumer slowdown.</li></ul>US stocks jumped on Friday, with all three major averages notching a five-week win streak.The <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/s&amp;p_500">S&amp;P 500</a> and <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/dow_jones">Dow Jones Industrial Average</a> closed at record highs on Friday. The session marked the S&amp;P 500's 45th record closing high this year and the first time the benchmark index climbed above 5,800. The gains came after US mega-banks <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/stocks/jpm-stock">JPMorgan</a> and <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/stocks/wfc-stock">Wells Fargo</a> <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/jpmorgan-earnings-q3-jamie-dimon-economy-geopolitics-banking-wall-street-2024-10">reported upbeat third-quarter results</a> that showed no signs of an imminent consumer slowdown.JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon praised his bank's performance in the earnings release but <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/jpmorgan-earnings-q3-jamie-dimon-economy-geopolitics-banking-wall-street-2024-10">warned that geopolitical conditions</a> are "treacherous and getting worse." Dimon has long warned investors about rising geopolitical risks. Also helping stocks on Friday was a light print for September's wholesale inflation gauge.The producer price index was flat month-over-month, below economist estimates of a 0.1% rise. Meanwhile, core PPI rose 0.1% in September, compared to an expected rise of 0.2%.The cool PPI report came a day after the CPI report was slightly hotter than expected."CPI might have seemed hot, but PPI was not. Overall, these numbers are getting less impactful as inflation moderates. The Fed could still be on track for 25 basis points at the next two meetings. Yields have surged lately, but it's not clear they have much more reason for continued upside," TradeStation strategist David Russell told Business Insider.Apart from earnings results, retail sales data, set to be released on October 17, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-economy-outlook-retail-sales-no-landing-inflation-jobs-report-2024-10">is the next big data release for investors to watch.</a>Bank of America analysts expect September retail sales data to show a 0.8% surge, while consensus estimates expect just 0.2% growth.Here's where US indexes stood at the 4:00 p.m. closing bell on Friday:<ul><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/s&amp;p_500?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">S&amp;P 500</a>: 5,815.03, up 0.61% </li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/dow_jones?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Dow Jones Industrial Average</a>: 42,863.86, up 0.97% (+409.74 points)</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/nasdaq_composite?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Nasdaq composite</a>: 18,342.94, up 0.33% </li></ul>Here's what else is going on:<ul><li><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/tesla-stock-price-drops-after-robotaxi-event-disappoints-wall-street-2024-10">Tesla stock plunged 10% on Friday after Wall Street was unimpressed with the company's robotaxi event.</a></li><li><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/nvidia-stock-forecast-blackwell-gpu-demand-ai-tech-stocks-nvda-2024-10">Nvidia's next-generation Blackwell chips are sold out for the next 12 months, according to Morgan Stanley.</a></li><li><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/chinese-carmaker-chery-russia-sanctions-west-assets-seizure-volkswagen-mercedes-2024-10">A Chinese automaker has taken over Russian plants abandoned by Volkswagen and Mercedes.</a></li><li><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/currencies/russia-economy-moscow-china-yuan-sanctions-bank-transactions-ruble-dollar-2024-10">Russia's ruble hit its lowest level in a year against the dollar and the yuan.</a></li><li><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/top-ai-stocks-microsoft-artificial-intelligence-goldman-sachs-mdb-snow-2024-10">These stocks are best-positioned to gain in the next wave of AI investment, Goldman Sachs says.</a></li></ul>In commodities, bonds, and crypto:<ul><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price">West Texas Intermediate</a> crude oil was down 0.45% to $75.51 a barrel. <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price">Brent crude</a>, the international benchmark, was lower by 0.55% to $78.96 a barrel.</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/gold-price">Gold</a> was up 1.26% to $2,672.60 an ounce.</li><li>The 10-year Treasury yield rose by one basis point to 4.083%.</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/currencies/btc-usd">Bitcoin</a> was higher by 4.45% to $62,963.</li></ul>

Stock market today: Indexes hit records and notch 5-week win streak after upbeat earnings, cool inflation

<ul class="summary-list"><li>US stocks rose after cool inflation data suggested more room for Federal Reserve rate cuts.</li><li>The personal consumption expenditures price index increased 0.1% in August, matching estimates.</li></ul>US stocks rose on Friday after cool inflation data suggested that the Federal Reserve has more room to cut interest rates.The personal consumption expenditures price index, which is considered the Fed's preferred inflation measure, increased 0.1% in August, in-line with economist estimates.On a year-over-year basis, the PCE Index rose 2.2%, slightly below economist estimates of 2.3%.According to Bellwether Wealth chief investment officer Clark Bellin, the data shows that the Fed was right in starting its interest rate cuts with a 50 basis point move last week."The Fed feels as though it has won the battle on inflation and its primary focus is making sure the job market stays steady," Bellin said in an email to Business Insider.According to Carson Group macro strategist Sonu Varghese, investors can thank productivity for the slowdown in inflation."An underrated story over the past year and half is that investment spending by firms has increased productivity, and that's allowed for strong income gains and output even as inflation eases," Varghese said via email.Looking ahead to next week, investors will be laser-focused on the September jobs report, set to be released on Friday.Here's where US indexes stood shortly after the 9:30 a.m. opening bell on Friday:<ul><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/s&amp;p_500?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">S&amp;P 500</a>: 5,750.44, up 0.1%</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/dow_jones?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Dow Jones Industrial Average</a>: 42,357.85, up 0.4% (183 points)</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/nasdaq_composite?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Nasdaq composite</a>: 18,192.78, up 0.1%</li></ul>Here's what else is going on:<ul><li><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-economy-outlook-stagflation-recession-inflation-gdp-growth-ukraine-war-2024-9">Russia's economy is showing signs of stagflation as it reels from the impact of its war against Ukraine.</a></li><li><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/david-tepper-buys-chinese-stocks-country-launches-fiscal-stimulus-bazooka-2024-9">Hedge fund billionaire David Tepper said he's loading up on Chinese stocks amid stimulus measures.</a></li><li><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/majority-millionaires-plan-vote-for-harris-over-trump-november-election-2024-9">A majority of millionaires plan to vote for Harris over Trump, according to a new survey.</a></li></ul>In commodities, bonds, and crypto:<ul><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price">West Texas Intermediate</a> crude oil was down slightly by 0.04% to $67.64 a barrel. <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price">Brent crude</a>, the international benchmark, was lower by 0.18% to $71.47 a barrel.</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/gold-price">Gold</a> was down 0.11% to $2,691.90 an ounce.</li><li>The 10-year Treasury yield was lower by 3 basis points at 3.772%.</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/currencies/btc-usd">Bitcoin</a> was up 0.74% to $65,667.</li></ul>

You Searched For "inflation impact on markets" and got 12 results

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Stock market today: US stocks edge up after wholesale inflation comes in cool

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Stock market today: US stocks close at all-time highs ahead of key inflation update

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Indian banks to have steady growth in earning over next 3-4 years, fees from unsecured lending may dip, notes Jefferies report

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Stock market today: Indexes hit records and notch 5-week win streak after upbeat earnings, cool inflation

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Stock market today: US indexes gain after soft inflation report supports more rate cuts

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