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Indian companies across multiple sectors have reported disappointing results in the second quarter of fiscal year 2025, notes a new JM Financials report. Consequently, their poor performance has triggered stock price corrections for affected companies. The brunt of this weaker than expected earnings was largely borne by consumer centric sectors like FMCG (fast moving consumer goods), retail, and auto, which slacked largely due to dampened urban demand. For instance, India's largest automaker, Maruti Suzuki, reported a 5% YoY decline in its total domestic passenger vehicle wholesales, largely on the back of pent-up inventory. Similarly, Honda reported a staggering 23% YoY dip in its total sales during October 2024. A recent report by Bernstein noted that around 48% of the companies listed on the NSE100 index missed their earnings estimate for Q2FY25, the highest since March 2020. Most companies have mentioned deteriorated domestic demand, urban slowing, macroeconomic risk, and margin pressures as the main reasons behind the dip. "The quarter's earnings have made investors nervous," noted the JM Financials report. The challenging environment stems from multiple factors: softening consumer demand, rising input costs, and companies' limited ability to increase prices. Moreover, this is not limited to just one quarter. Companies have been reporting weak, single-digit earnings growth for the last six consecutive quarters. Data from India Data Hub also suggests that corporate profits of listed companies plunged by as much as 3.4% during the quarter ended September 30, 2024. This is in stark contrast to the year-ago period, where they had shot up by over 40% The oil and gas sector had a difficult quarter, with refiners hit by weak margins and city gas distributors struggling with higher input costs. Financial institutions showed mixed results. While government-owned banks reported strong numbers, microfinance institutions and some private lenders faced massive difficulties with their unsecured loans. Most notable amongst this was the case of IndusInd Bank, which saw its net profits dip by 40% amidst burgeoning provisions, which climbed 87% to Rs 1,820 crore in Q2, as against Rs 974 crore reported in the year-ago period. <h2>Markets head southwards</h2>The selling trend by FPIs has dragged down the major Indian indices, the Nifty 50 and Sensex, both of which have dropped by around 8% since the beginning of this selling spree in October. According to National Securities Depository Ltd. (NSDL) data, FPIs offloaded equities worth a significant Rs 19,994 crore in just the first five trading sessions of November last week. The impact is clearly visible on Indian stock markets. Data suggests that while every sector in October closed the month in red, auto, oil and gas, and consumer durables were the most badly hit, each declining by as much as 10% during the month. Another indicator underlining the inherent weakness of the market was that the month saw only 242 stocks hit their 52-week high, significantly below the usual monthly average of 310.

India Inc. stares at an earnings dearth in Q2, FMCG, auto, and consumer durables falter

India’s electric vehicle (EV) sector, often seen as a key player in the country’s clean energy transition, has been called “irrelevant” without government <keyword id="20231384" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="incentives" source="keywords">incentives</keyword> by a recent Bernstein research report. The report highlights the serious challenges automakers face in achieving profitability and scaling operations in the EV segment, which remains heavily reliant on financial support from the government. <h2>Struggling to achieve profitability</h2>The Bernstein report reveals that generating profitable margins in the Indian EV sector is proving to be an uphill battle for automakers. “It is tough to generate sufficient margins and get scale in EVs. Even with hefty incentives, incumbent OEMs are still unprofitable,” the report stated. This underscores the fact that even with <keyword id="20022183" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="government-subsidies" source="keywords">government subsidies</keyword> aimed at promoting <keyword id="20138204" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="electric-mobility" source="keywords">electric mobility</keyword>, automakers are struggling to make EVs financially viable. High production costs, limited infrastructure, and relatively low consumer demand all contribute to this issue. Traditional automakers, particularly in India’s two-wheeler market, are facing significant financial losses. According to Bernstein, while some niche startups may survive, their long-term market share will likely remain limited, and competition will primarily be between established original equipment manufacturers (OEMs). The key challenge for these OEMs is achieving the scale and cost reductions required to compete with the well-entrenched internal combustion engine (ICE) sector. <h2>Reliance on incentives</h2>One of the most striking conclusions from Bernstein’s analysis is the deep reliance of the EV sector on government subsidies. Without these incentives, the <keyword id="19952060" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="EV-Industry" source="keywords">EV industry</keyword> would be unable to compete with traditional ICE vehicles. “The EV Industry is not relevant without incentives currently, and to break the ICE sector, it needs intense focus, scale, and continued cost downs,” the report emphasised. This indicates that while government schemes like GST benefits have helped reduce the cost difference between EVs and ICE vehicles, they are not enough to ensure the long-term sustainability of the EV sector. Bernstein estimates that the overall EV two-wheeler industry in India generates around USD 1.3 billion in annual revenues, but without government support, the sector incurs an EBIT loss of approximately USD 300-400 million. The high cost structure of EVs, combined with the relatively low sales volumes, makes it difficult for companies to operate without subsidies. <h2>Established players face mixed fortunes</h2>Among India’s leading two-wheeler manufacturers, Bernstein noted that <keyword id="19897354" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Bajaj-Auto" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="Bajaj Auto" meta.hostid="265" meta.entityid="Bajaj Auto">Bajaj Auto</keyword> and <keyword id="20326963" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="TVS-Motors" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="TVS Motors" meta.hostid="265" meta.entityid="TVS Motors">TVS Motors</keyword> are on a similar footing in terms of their performance in the EV space. Bajaj Auto received an "Outperform" rating from Bernstein due to its lower valuations, while TVS Motors was rated "Market Perform" after it was found to be losing approximately 7.5% in EBITDA, or Rs 11,000 per vehicle, despite generating a gross profit margin of 7% without subsidies. <div type="Article" hostid="261" msid="113631992" title="Tata Nexon EV with a bigger battery launched starting at ₹13.99 lakh" mstype="2" mssubtype="0"></div>Hero MotoCorp, a major player in India’s automotive market, lags behind both Bajaj and TVS in terms of its EV offerings. Bernstein also pointed out that Eicher Motors, which is expected to launch its own <keyword id="19895203" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="electric-vehicles" source="keywords">electric vehicles</keyword> soon, is likely to remain “sub-scale and less relevant” in the competitive EV landscape. Interestingly, <keyword id="19897349" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Ola-Electric" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="Ola Electric" meta.hostid="265" meta.entityid="Ola Electric">Ola Electric</keyword> (Ola-E) stands out as a startup that has been able to generate positive operating earnings (EBITDA) from its premium models like the S1 Pro and S1 Air, even as it incurs losses on its mass-market model, the S1X. “Our analysis indicates that Ola-E is generating positive operating EBITDA from its premium models, such as the S1 Pro and S1 Air while incurring a loss on its mass-market model, the S1X,” the report said. While Ola has shown some promise, it too remains heavily dependent on subsidies to maintain its financial health. <h2>Long-term outlook</h2>Bernstein’s report paints a challenging picture for the future of India’s EV sector, suggesting that while dominant startups may survive, the majority of the competition will come from traditional automakers. However, without significant scale and continued cost reductions, the EV industry will struggle to become self-sustaining. <div type="Article" hostid="261" msid="113315022" title="Waiting for the festive season to buy an EV? Cabinet approves PM E-Drive subsidising most EVs, sans electric cars" mstype="2" mssubtype="0"></div>Bernstein emphasised that to truly compete with ICE vehicles, the EV sector needs to focus on scaling up operations, reducing costs, and maintaining long-term commitment. Until these conditions are met, India’s EV industry will remain highly dependent on government support and may continue to face an uphill battle for relevance. In conclusion, while India’s EV sector is seen as a vital part of the country’s clean energy future, Bernstein’s analysis highlights that it is far from being self-reliant. The industry’s heavy dependence on government incentives raises questions about its long-term sustainability and relevance, particularly in the face of ongoing challenges with profitability and scale. (With inputs from ANI)

Why has Bernstein called India’s EV sector 'irrelevant'?

<keyword id="19895063" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="India" source="keywords">India</keyword>'s <keyword id="19938893" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="defence-exports" source="keywords">defence exports</keyword> have surged from Rs 15 billion in 2017 to Rs 210 billion in 2024, registering a CAGR of 46 per cent, highlighted a report on 'Defence Conference 3.0' by Antique Stock Broking. The report stated that the <keyword id="20861069" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="global-shift" source="keywords">global shift</keyword> towards a China+1 strategy and the impact of the <keyword id="20016971" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Russia-Ukraine-war" source="keywords">Russia-Ukraine war</keyword> offer India additional opportunities to fill supply chain gaps, potentially boosting its share in the <keyword id="23046732" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="global-defence-industry" source="keywords">global defence industry</keyword>. The report noted that the country's long-term goal is to become a global defence manufacturing hub is driven by Defence Public Sector Undertakings (DPSUs), private enterprises, start-ups, and MSMEs. "Indian defence exports have grown multi-fold from INR 15 bn in 2017 to INR 210 bn in 2024 at a CAGR of 46%. The China + 1 strategy and the Russia-Ukraine war provides an additional opportunity for India to fill the gap created in the supply chain and hence increase its contribution to the global defence industry," the report read. The report added that to achieve this target a well-developed domestic ecosystem is crucial as lower import content in products accelerates approvals by reducing international conflicts. The report added that the Ministry of Defence has taken key initiatives to attract Indian private players and global Original Equipment Manufacturers (OEMs) include establishing aerospace parks and defence corridors, fast-tracking project approvals, and enhancing development and testing facilities. Highlighting the potential in India's Maintenance, Repair, and Overhaul (MRO) segment the report explained that it holds a significant potential for global aerospace companies due to its technical expertise and cost-competitive solutions. "India provides a huge opportunity in the <keyword id="23046733" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="MRO-segment" source="keywords">MRO segment</keyword> for global aerospace leaders given the expertise the country provides as well as the cost efficiency solutions compared to its global competitors" the report added. India aims to increase domestic defence turnover to Rs 3 lac crore by 2029, Rs 500 billion targeted for exports. This growth will help reduce the Government of India's import bill as India remains the world's largest importer of defence equipment. Under the Atmanirbhar Bharat initiative of the government, 75 per cent of the defence capital outlay is now reserved for domestic players, up from 49 per cent in FY21. Given the geopolitical challenges and modernisation needs of its Armed Forces, the report added that India plans to invest Rs 8.3 lac crore in domestic procurement, offering substantial business opportunities for local companies. "India intends to place orders worth INR 8.3 trn through domestic procurement and thus it presents a massive business opportunity for local players" it added. As per the Ministry of Defence, India's defence manufacturing sector has witnessed an increase of 16.8 per cent in the fiscal year 2023-24. This significant increase marks the highest-ever growth in the country's defence production value. The total value of defence production reached Rs 1,26,887 crore this year, up from the previous year's figures.

India's defence exports surge to Rs 210 billion after global shift towards China+1, Russia-Ukraine war: Report

India’s diamond industry is grappling with a severe downturn as both imports and exports have significantly declined over the past three years, triggering defaults, <keyword id="23043782" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="factory-closures" source="keywords">factory closures</keyword>, and widespread <keyword id="20013745" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="job-losses" source="keywords">job losses</keyword>, according to a report by the Global Trade Research Initiative (<keyword id="19962754" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="GTRI" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="GTRI" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="GTRI">GTRI</keyword>). The think tank highlighted that the sector is struggling with unsold <keyword id="20237406" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="rough-diamonds" source="keywords">rough diamonds</keyword> and increasing competition from lab-grown alternatives. Ajay Srivastava, Founder of GTRI, pointed out that the downturn in India’s diamond industry has had devastating effects. "This has led to defaults, factory closures, and widespread job losses. Tragically, more than 60 individuals from Gujarat’s diamond sector have taken their own lives, highlighting the intense financial and emotional stress," Srivastava said. He emphasised the urgent need for intervention to address these issues and ensure the survival of the sector. <h2>Declining imports and exports</h2>Data from GTRI paints a grim picture of the industry. Imports of rough diamonds have dropped by 24.5%, from USD 18.5 billion in 2021-22 to USD 14 billion in 2023-24, reflecting weakened global demand and fewer orders for diamond processing. After accounting for re-exported rough diamonds, net imports saw a 25.3% decrease, signalling reduced interest in processing diamonds in India. The situation is even worse on the export front. Exports of cut and polished diamonds fell by 34.6%, from USD 24.4 billion in FY 2022 to USD 13.1 billion in FY 2024. Net exports experienced an even sharper decline, dropping by 45.3% from USD 15.9 billion to USD 8.7 billion, indicating a weak global market and rising inventories of unsold diamonds. <h2>Rising inventories and market competition</h2>The report also highlighted that the percentage of unsold diamonds returned to India increased from 35% to 45.6% during this period. Additionally, the gap between net rough diamond imports and net exports of cut and polished diamonds widened from USD 1.6 billion in FY 2022 to USD 4.4 billion in FY 2024, signifying a growing stockpile of unsold inventory and insufficient export demand. Several factors contribute to this crisis. Global economic uncertainty, inflation, and geopolitical tensions — particularly in key markets like the US, China, and Europe — have led to decreased spending on luxury items such as diamonds. Fluctuating global diamond prices have added to this uncertainty, causing buyers to hesitate in purchasing rough diamonds. <div type="Article" hostid="261" msid="113445065" title="&amp;#39;The pressure became too much for her&amp;#39;: Mother blames &amp;#39;work stress&amp;#39; for 26-year-old EY employee&amp;#39;s death" mstype="2" mssubtype="0"></div>Moreover, the Russia-Ukraine conflict has disrupted the global diamond supply chain, with sanctions on Russia, a major producer of rough diamonds, further complicating trade. This slowdown has impacted the global market, stalling the flow of diamonds and affecting India’s processing sector. Another challenge facing the industry is the shift in consumer preferences toward <keyword id="20662742" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="lab-grown-diamonds" source="keywords">lab-grown diamonds</keyword>, which are seen as more affordable, ethical, and sustainable. This shift is particularly evident in markets where customers are becoming more conscious of the environmental and ethical implications of their purchases. <h2>Internal regulatory and operational hurdles</h2>Internally, the Indian diamond sector is facing a host of challenges. Many polishing units are burdened with unsold inventories of polished diamonds, discouraging them from importing new rough diamonds. Rising operational costs, including labour, energy, and materials, have also made it difficult for many polishing units to remain profitable. These factors have led to the closure of many shops and significant layoffs, particularly in Surat, the world’s largest hub for diamond cutting and polishing. The sector's heavy reliance on financing has also become a problem. Tighter credit conditions and reduced lending from banks have made it increasingly difficult for businesses to purchase rough diamonds, further stalling production. Additionally, a significant number of cut and polished diamonds exported from India are being returned due to quality issues, overstocking, and price fluctuations, creating costly delays and adding to the strain on exporters. <h2>Dubai's rising influence</h2>An interesting development highlighted by GTRI is the increasing share of rough diamond imports from Dubai, which does not produce diamonds itself. Instead, Dubai imports diamonds from countries like Botswana, Angola, South Africa, and Russia and re-exports them to India. Dubai’s share in India’s rough diamond imports surged from 36.3% in FY 2020 to 60.8% in FY 2024, further rising to 64.5% in April-June 2024. In contrast, Belgium’s share of these imports fell from 37.9% in FY 2020 to 17.6% in FY 2024. One major reason for Dubai's increasing role is India’s high corporate tax regime, which pushes foreign suppliers of rough diamonds to re-export their diamonds to Dubai before sending them to India. This has rendered India’s Special Notified Zones (SNZs) in Mumbai and Surat largely ineffective. <h2>Revitalising the sector</h2>To help revitalise the struggling sector, GTRI has proposed several measures. These include extending export credit terms, exempting foreign rough diamond sellers from corporate taxes in India, regulating the lab-grown diamond industry, and reconsidering the zero-tariff import of cut and polished diamonds from Dubai under the India-UAE trade agreement. The think tank also suggested that the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) extend the export credit period for cut and polished diamond exporters from six months to 12 months, as buyers are increasingly demanding longer credit terms. India’s strong foreign exchange reserves make this feasible. <div type="Article" hostid="261" msid="113449316" title="Small businesses generated 35 million job applications till Aug 2024, 14 million were from women: Report" mstype="2" mssubtype="0"></div>The Indian diamond industry, which consists of over 7,000 companies — many of them small or medium enterprises — provides direct employment to about 1.3 million workers, with Surat alone employing nearly 8,00,000 people. The industry is also crucial for millions of indirect jobs in sectors like logistics, transport, and retail. With the sector being such a vital part of India’s economy, immediate and coordinated efforts are needed to address its current challenges and ensure its long-term viability. (With inputs from PTI)

India's diamond sector faces major crisis amid plummeting imports, exports, and massive job losses

The <keyword id="21233022" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Indian-textile-industry" source="keywords">Indian textile industry</keyword> is set to experience developments in 2024, driven by improving demand in <keyword id="21017131" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="export-markets" source="keywords">export markets</keyword>, resilient consumer spending in key sectors, and favourable geopolitical conditions, according to the B&amp;K Securities report. In the ready-made garments (RMG) sector, the demand offtake in export markets is anticipated to show substantial improvement in 2024. While domestic demand is expected to remain moderate due to lower discretionary spending and overstocking from the previous fiscal year, the recovery in export demand is promising. The domestic market could see a boost in the second half of FY25, supported by an increase in wedding days and festive season, although the rise in realisations is likely to be marginal. The export growth in RMG is expected to be driven by a combination of factors including restocking by Western retailers, increased demand for spring-summer collections, and a general uptick in retail sales. The anticipated interest rate cuts in the US will further stimulate demand. India's RMG exports will also benefit from stable cotton prices and uninterrupted supply, enhancing cost competitiveness on the global stage. The ongoing crisis in Bangladesh, a major player in the global RMG market, presents a temporary tailwind for Indian exporters. However, the benefits for India are expected to be short-lived due to differences in product portfolios and Bangladesh's trade agreements with the European Union. Over the medium to long term, India could see more substantial gains as global buyers continue to diversify their <keyword id="19959553" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="supply-chains" source="keywords">supply chains</keyword> away from China and Bangladesh, particularly as Bangladesh faces challenges such as rising wages and the loss of its Least Developed Country (LDC) status by 2029. The <keyword id="21356289" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="home-textiles" source="keywords">home textiles</keyword> segment is poised to continue its growth trajectory, primarily driven by robust consumer spending in the United States, which accounts for approximately 60 per cent of India's home <keyword id="21353395" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="textile-exports" source="keywords">textile exports</keyword>. The market share of Indian players in the US has been steadily increasing, supported by the China+1 strategy adopted by big box retailers to diversify their supply chains. India's competitive advantage in raw material costs and increased domestic capacity will likely sustain its dominance in the US home textiles market. The Free Trade Agreement (FTA) negotiations with the UK and the European Union offer additional opportunities for growth, potentially leading to higher margins and increased market share for Indian players. While the industry is on a positive trajectory, it faces near-term challenges such as logistical disruptions due to the Red Sea crisis and uncompetitive domestic cotton prices. Moreover, as sustainability becomes a major theme in <keyword id="21977676" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="western-markets" source="keywords">Western markets</keyword>, <keyword id="804823" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Indian-textile" source="Orion">Indian textile</keyword> companies will need to invest in compliance with these evolving norms to remain competitive. (ANI)

Indian textile exports to remain strong amid global shifts; FTA negotiations with EU to offer growth opportunities

Amid the ongoing geopolitical tension, the <keyword id="19904988" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="energy-sector" source="keywords">energy sector</keyword> will continue to face challenge while the <keyword id="20468174" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="consumer-goods" source="keywords">consumer goods</keyword>, automotive, healthcare is set to expand in 2025, highlighted a report 'Industry Outlook 2025' by <keyword id="20618515" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="Economist-Intelligence-Unit" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="Economist Intelligence Unit" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="Economist Intelligence Unit">Economist Intelligence Unit</keyword>. The report noted that the Fossil fuel markets will continue to face risks from geopolitical conflicts, particularly in the Middle East and Ukraine. However, investments in <keyword id="19895602" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="renewable-energy" source="keywords">renewable energy</keyword> will remain strong, especially in China, as the world pushes toward cleaner and more sustainable energy sources. The report said "Fossil-fuel markets will continue to face <keyword id="20064250" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="geopolitical-risks" source="keywords">geopolitical risks</keyword> amid conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine, but investment into renewables will remain strong, particularly in China." It also added that the financial sector faces a mixed outlook with falling interest rates anticipated to narrow bank profit margins, potentially leading to smaller dividend payouts for shareholders. Yet, regulatory easing could provide relief, with the Basel III endgame likely seeing further delays, softening the impact on banking institutions amid a challenging economic landscape. For the consumer goods and retailing the report added that the Global retail volumes are forecast to grow by 2.2 per cent in 2025, thanks to easing inflation. However, stricter regulations on online retailing will target high-volume, low-price retailers, to ensure fair competition and consumer protection. It said "Global retail volumes will expand by 2.2 per cent, helped by disinflation, but regulations around online retailing will tighten further" As per report, the <keyword id="20359760" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="automotive-sector" source="keywords">automotive sector</keyword> is set for a record year, it said "After a difficult few years, annual new-vehicle sales will reach a record 97.2m units in 2025. This includes a 2 per cent rise in new car sales, a 4 per cent increase in commercial vehicle sales, and a significant 16 per cent growth in <keyword id="19963112" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="electric-vehicle-sales" source="keywords">electric vehicle sales</keyword>, reflecting the sector's recovery and the shift toward cleaner mobility. In technology the report added more countries will adopt satellite internet, although the primary users will be enterprise clients, including military and maritime sectors. Amazon's Project Kuiper will challenge the existing market dominance of Starlink and EutelSat OneWeb, offering more competition and potential growth in satellite connectivity. The resulting tensions will continue to affect investment into production and market entry, with companies taking advantage of government incentives to build out more flexible supply chains. <keyword id="23684177" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="investment-in-technology" source="keywords">Investment in technology</keyword>, particularly artificial intelligence (AI), will also be strong as projects gather pace. However, technology companies will face pressure from several directions as regulations tighten (particularly in Europe), investors become more impatient for profits and their energy usage comes under more scrutiny.

Consumer goods, auto and healthcare sector to expand but energy may face challenge in 2025: Report

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Trump's win could provide a much-needed boost to the consulting industry.</li><li>Trump's proposed tariffs, tax cuts, and deregulation could drive demand for consulting services.</li></ul>President Donald Trump's election victory could spell good news for the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/consulting-firms-mckinsey-bcg-accenture-workers-leaving-2024-9">consulting industry</a>, which has recently faced declines in demand and hiring.Trump campaigned on several proposed policies — including global tariffs on imported goods and <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-tax-cuts-social-security-boomers-benefit-fund-depletion-2024-11">sweeping tax cuts</a> — that could <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/donald-trump-presidency-affect-big-tech-2024-11">impact American businesses</a> and, in turn, demand for consulting services.Industry experts told Business Insider they expect <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/donald-trump-white-house-staff-cabinet-picks-list-2024-11">Trump's election</a> to increase demand for consulting, including strategy, management, reorganizational, and technical advisory services."I think the election of Trump is very favorable for the consulting industry," Michael Mische, a management consultant, former partner at KPMG, and professor at USC's Marshall School, told BI.Mische said the primary factors that drive consulting are typically macroeconomic health, government spending, CEO sentiment, free cash flows, and client need. He said there has been client need over the past couple of years, but some CEOs have been hesitant to act on it due to a tough macroeconomic environment, noting that the industry is highly vulnerable and elastic depending on what's going on in the world."Our entire consulting industry — it's predicated on the fact that it's the discretionary item. It literally is the luxury item of the CEO," Mische said.Unlike accounting or legal services, consultants are not a must-have, and they are quick to go when CEO sentiment is down or economic outlooks are uncertain. But Mische said Trump's election will likely boost CEO sentiment, noting that <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/how-to-invest-trump-win-election-stock-market-outlook-strategy-2024-11">the stock market reacted</a> positively to Trump's win.Trump's proposal to cut the corporate tax rate could leave more money for companies to put toward discretionary spending like consultants. The unrealized capital gains tax floated by Vice President Kamala Harris is also unlikely to happen now, another potential morale boost for companies.<a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/donald-trump-election-win-high-inflation-risk-tariffs-deportations-taxes-2024-11">Tariffs</a> might also favor the consulting industry, as responding to them could require "quite of bit of intellectual horsepower" and specialized skillsets that companies may turn to consultants for.Two days after the election, Mische said he was already seeing clients warm up to hiring more consulting services.<h2 id="0172b540-ba65-42fa-b2bd-4c6e3f78d704">Potentially a short-term bump</h2>Tom Rodenhauser, managing partner at the consulting market research firm Kennedy Intelligence, agreed that the industry could see increased demand following Trump's election, but he thinks it could be a "short-term bump."Rodenhauser said Trump comes with uncertainty, along with his promises of tax cuts and <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/elon-musk-could-help-deregulate-tech-amid-a-trump-victory-2024-11">deregulation</a> — all of which, including the unpredictability, can be good for consultants."But the bad part is you're borrowing against the future. You're kind of having this very short-term outlook," he said.For instance, in recent years, there has been a push toward renewables as the energy of the future, but Trump's focus on oil and gas could lead to more focus and expenditures on those sectors, a move Rodenhauser said may not be ideal in the long term.He compared the situation to what happened during the pandemic: surging <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/the-consulting-business-demand-is-rough-right-now-2024-3">demand for consulting services</a> led to over-hiring, which led to layoffs and delayed start dates at some major firms, including <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/big-four-consultancies-deloitte-ey-cut-staff-pwc-accenture-2024-10">Deloitte</a>, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/ey-graduate-hires-start-dates-delayed-slowdown-strategy-consulting-2024-10">EY</a>, and <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/layoffs-sweeping-us-these-are-companies-making-cuts-2024#:~:text=PwC%20is%20cutting%201%2C800%20employees.&amp;text=Big%20Four%20accounting%20firm%20PwC,will%20be%20informed%20in%20October.">PwC</a>."I think the danger for the big consulting firms is you don't want to seize upon an opportunity that's going to give you a short-term fix," he said.Doree Keating, a public sector industry leader at Ernst &amp; Young, had a more optimistic outlook on Trump's impact. "We're seeing tremendous opportunity for the government to leverage cloud technology, responsible AI, and data to drive efficiency and effectiveness across all agencies. Ultimately, our focus will be on helping modernizing government operations to deliver better results for the American people," she told BI by email.<h2 id="728a89b9-e57f-453a-b804-6c5d72e45ff6">'Business as usual'</h2>Two consultants both told Business Insider by direct message on Reddit that their firms are preparing for "business as usual" in Trump's second term. Both requested anonymity to avoid jeopardizing their careers but their employment was confirmed by Business Insider.One consultant who works at Deloitte said there would likely be a shift from federal to state-level work. "The prediction for more state government contracts comes across some of the policy ideas we've heard from the Trump administration; if there's certain federal social services that change or end, states have a lot of work to do to implement those changes but also address gaps it creates for the respective citizens of the state," they wrote.They added that Deloitte's leadership predicts a hiring surge next year to support staffing changes across agencies, new grant work, and implementing policy decisions Trump makes in his first year as president.Deloitte did not respond to Business Insider's request for comment.<h2 id="c6c80825-8c85-4b55-8f64-35597771189a">Three phases of preparing for Trump 2.0</h2>Mische said he expects three phases in how consulting firms respond to the new presidency. First, they'll need more confidence about what they think will happen in 2025. Next, they'll need to work through the backlog of extended but deferred job offers to see who is still interested in working for the firm. And once they have clarity in those regards, firms can start amping up their recruiting efforts.He expects much demand in the energy sectors, from fossil fuels to renewables, and an increased focus on more efficient government spending.The federal government spends billions annually on consulting services, and he said there may be increased demand from agencies Trump has suggested making major changes to, including the Department of Education, the Justice Department, and the Department of Defense.

What Trump's win means for the consulting industry

India could see a shift in foreign direct investment (FDI) trends in the second term of Donald Trump (Trump 2.0) as President of the United States, says a research report by the State Bank of India. The report highlighted that under his first term, Trump 1.0, the Trump administration made sweeping regulatory changes aimed at attracting investments back to the U.S., which impacted FDI inflows globally, including India. It added that if similar policies are reintroduced in Trump 2.0 also, it could create challenges for emerging markets like India, which rely on FDI as a significant driver of economic growth. Notably, a recent Kotak report highlighted that a complete Republican control over all arms of the US government would mean increased US earnings via corporate tax cuts, higher tariffs on imports into the US and greater US fiscal deficits. The first two could spell doom for emerging markets like India and China, since foreign investors will make a beeline for investing more money in the US markets, which will come at the cost of intense selloff in emerging markets. However, higher fiscal deficits will eventually lead to the dollar weakening after the initial euphoria dies down. "India may see shifts in foreign direct investments (FDIs) during Trump 2.0. The Trump 1.0 administration saw significant regulatory changes aimed at attracting investments back to the US," the SBI report stated. However, given that India has been gradually diversifying its sources of FDI (foreign direct investments), this trend could serve as a buffer against any potential decline. Moreover, domestic institutional investors have been stepping up big time, maintaining some balance to the massive exodus of FIIs over the past month. So far in November 2024, FIIs have withdrawn Rs 19,849 crores from the cash segment in Indian markets, while DIIs have poured in Rs 14,014.18 crores as of November 10th, 2024. "India is no longer dependent on the traditional sources of FDI inflows... unlike the recent past, FDI is now coming in many new sectors," noted the SBI report. Unlike a decade ago, when most FDI inflows came from a limited number of traditional sectors, India is now attracting investment in a wide array of industries, including renewable energy, sea transport, medical devices, and surgical appliances. Data suggests over the last 24 years, i.e., between April 2000 and June 2024, FDIs have poured in $1,013.4 billion in the Indian economy. Out of this, 67%, i.e., $689.88 billion, has come in just the last 10 years. The report added there are up to 12 emerging sectors showing strong FDI interest, which could help offset any loss of inflows in conventional sectors if there is a shift in global investment patterns under another Trump administration. In the last financial year, the top 5 sectors that have received the highest quantum of FDI inflow include the services sector (finance, banking, insurance, and business) which makes up about 16% of the inflows. This is followed computer software &amp; hardware, which constitute around 15% of total FDI flows. Trading and telecommunications follows with a share of 6% each, and Automobile Industry comes next with a 5% share. In the short term, the potential for increased U.S. tariffs, more restrictive H-1B visa policies, and a stronger dollar could bring some volatility to India's trade and investment landscape. However, in the long term, these challenges might also encourage India to expand its manufacturing capabilities, diversify export markets, and focus on becoming economically more self-reliant. Notably, India has maintained a merchandise trade surplus with the U.S. despite tariffs imposed during Trump's first term. This indicates that Indian exports have remained resilient, and there is potential to strengthen this trade relationship further by capitalizing on emerging sectors and reducing dependency on traditional industries. Suman Chowdhury, Executive Director &amp; Chief Economist, Acuité Ratings &amp; Research Limited cautions that in the medium to long term, the trade relationship with the US may see a structural improvement. "Higher tariff and trade restrictions in the US with China should translate into better opportunities for exports of manufactured goods from India", he adds.

FDIs may shift to US under Trump 2.0 but it is unlikely to severely impact FDIs inflow to India, says SBI Report

The <keyword id="1370377" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="BPM-industry" source="Orion">BPM industry</keyword> in India is at the cusp of a transformation and the demand for AI-enabled talent is set to surge, redefining workforce needs across the sector. “My spectrum tells me, in the next 3-5 years, there’s going to be an uptick in AI-enabled workers till the time that models stabilise,” said Nitasha Atreya, the Head of Transformation, Digital Operations and Platforms at Wipro, during a panel discussion on “AI-Ready <keyword id="20041791" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="bpm" source="keywords">BPM</keyword> Industry in India,” hosted by Business Insider India. While AI has the potential to streamline many business processes, industry experts caution against relying solely on AI. Human intervention is still required, which means skilling new talent and upskilling existing talent is vital to leveraging AI effectively. Investing in these areas allows organisations to better meet evolving demands with a workforce that complements AI-driven solutions. <div type="Youtube" id="3ewvUSYfG1M" title="Al-Ready BPM Industry In India" thumbUrl="https://i.ytimg.com/vi/3ewvUSYfG1M/mqdefault.jpg"><url><![CDATA[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3ewvUSYfG1M]]></url></div> <h2>Why human intervention is critical</h2>As the demand for AI and generative AI models is rising among BPM clients, particularly for model-building capabilities, so is the demand for AI-skilled workers. “For us to have the right intervention for human-in-the-loop processes, it’s essential that we develop an AI-enabled workforce,” Mythily Ramesh, Co-Founder and Director of NextWealth told Business Insider. Ramesh shared industry projections that estimate AI could create up to 100 million jobs globally. AI models generate predictions based on historical data and probabilities, but human oversight is essential to ensure accuracy and minimise errors. “AI as an enabler or augmenting the human workforce is probably the way this industry is going to progress. With the risks that are associated with completely leaving AI to replace humans – it’s just not going to work,” explained <keyword id="23987938" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="sundar-hariharan" source="keywords">Sundar Hariharan</keyword>, Vice President of Digital Business Experience Centre at Alorica IQ. <h2>Shaping the future of AI And BPMs with collaborative intelligence</h2>The panellists emphasised a significant challenge in AI model development: only 1 in every 100 models actually makes it to deployment. For all of these models, a rigorous process of training and fine-tuning is required, using either synthetic or human-generated data. This process is not just about feeding the model data but also validating the output to ensure it functions as intended. “There’s a lot of requirements for data training and validation,” said Ramesh, highlighting the substantial demand for data annotators, labelers, and specialists in areas like image and video annotation. These roles are crucial for ensuring that the data used to train models is of high quality and accurately reflects the task at hand. However, the skills required for these roles go beyond traditional data labelling. The workforce must move away from rigid Standard Operating Procedures (SOPs) and understand the context in which data is being used. This requires employees to make judgement calls that help refine the model’s performance, adapting to continuously evolving instruction sets. "It’s collaborative intelligence—human intelligence combined with artificial intelligence," Ramesh noted. To address this evolving demand for skills, companies like Wipro have implemented comprehensive upskilling programs. These programs are tailored to different business segments, from basic AI awareness (AI 101) to advanced training for developers, engineers, and architects—those working directly on the models. Atreya shared that over 10,000 developers and engineers at Wipro are currently receiving training across these programs. <h2>AI’s role in transforming BPM operations</h2>According to Suhrid Brahma, the Chief Technology Officer at WNS Global Systems, the core model of the BPM industry is changing. “There is a shift from focus on people, to outcomes and value-add as an industry,” he said. He outlines a three-part strategy for the upgrades needed in AI-driven BPM, beginning with AI in operations. By building an AI-skilled workforce and maintaining a ‘human in the loop’ approach, organisations can maximise the value of AI while keeping essential human oversight. The second area is AI for applications and platforms. Each BPM deal has a technological component, which varies from client to client, but AI should be woven directly into these enterprise systems to ensure seamless functionality. Lastly, he highlights AI’s evolving role in analytics, shifting from retrospective analysis to providing predictive insights that drive proactive decision-making across the organisation. “This whole industry will grow for sure. But the nature of work we do, the kind of value-add we do for clients and the kind of outcomes we deliver as an industry, will definitely change,” Brahma noted. <h2>Navigating an evolving AI landscape in BPM</h2>As AI continues to reshape BPM, the nature of customer needs is also changing. With AI, businesses now have the potential to drive end-to-end process automation, where one part of the process is handled by the BPM organisation and the other by the client, fostering a more collaborative approach to AI adoption. Hariharan noted that BPM providers are transitioning into more tech-driven organisations, as AI increasingly becomes a key enabler of business processes. However, the road to AI integration is not without challenges. Atreya pointed out several challenges like siloed technology limiting the potential of AI to drive meaningful results. Atreya highlighted that siloed technology often limits the ability of AI to drive results. Organisations must assess whether they are AI-ready, with a mature data infrastructure and robust data availability. According to her, the most pressing concern remains ensuring ethical and responsible AI deployment, as new regulations continue to evolve. For sectors like BFSI, tech integration is already advanced, but industries like logistics have an opportunity to leapfrog by integrating systems and running processes end-to-end with AI, according to Brahma. He emphasised the importance of data integration to fully benefit from AI. Looking ahead, the panellists see huge opportunities in sectors like e-commerce and automotive, where AI-driven services are changing the landscape. The key to success will be collaboration, integration, and a well-trained workforce prepared to drive this AI-enabled transformation. This article is part of a four-part webinar series in partnership with nasscom. These monthly webinars aim to delve deep and offer insights into the evolving BPM landscape. You can watch the full video of the third session <a href="https://youtu.be/3ewvUSYfG1M">here</a>. Disclaimer: This article is generated and published by the Insider Studios team. You can get in touch with them on <a href="mailto:insiderstudios@businessinsider.in">insiderstudios@businessinsider.in</a>

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