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Imagine this. You have a younger sibling you’re mighty envious of. And why not? Unlike you, they seem to enjoy all the freedom and money in the world. They party like there’s no tomorrow, and here you are, stuck in a boring, ultra-disciplined but responsible routine that feels completely devoid of any independence, and mostly, funds. But of late, things are changing. This sibling is in massive trouble and just cannot escape the parent’s wrath anymore. Long story short, the party is over, and it is time to go back home. The rising defaults on this sibling’s part have now begun pulling the entire house down, thereby attracting the regulator’s ire. <h2>The Wild West of microfinance and unsecured loans</h2>It's hard to ignore the issues with microfinance and unsecured loans in India. Many saw them as a small gamble and ignored the rising defaults much like the younger siblings’ tantrums, and now they find themselves in hot waters. The skyrocketing instances of non-payments aren't a micro-issue anymore and are threatening the stability of the entire banking system. In the quarter ended September 30, 2024, 5 of India’s 8 largest private sector <keyword id="19934118" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="banks" source="keywords">banks</keyword> reported a steep rise in their bad loan book, mostly thanks to microfinance loans. Some banks, in a bid to strengthen their fortress against these <keyword id="142154" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="bad-loans" source="Orion">bad loans</keyword>, have significantly upped their provisions. For instance, <keyword id="46717" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="IndusInd-bank" source="Orion">IndusInd Bank</keyword> set aside Rs 525 crore during July and September 2024 to battle the menace of defaults on microfinance loans, which make up about 9% of its total loan book. See, banks rely heavily on their interest income, which they earn from advancing loans. Any loan where the borrower has not paid interest to the bank or defaulted for 90 days or more becomes bad, i.e., an <keyword id="79363" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="npa" source="Orion">NPA</keyword>, or non-performing asset for the bank. And who likes things going bad? Simply put, there has been a steep rise in three areas, much to the dislike of banks and MFIs (micro-finance institutions). But hey, it's mostly their doing! <ol><li>GNPA ratio (gross net performing assets): The quantum of non-performing assets a bank has in proportion to its total assets.</li><li>Provision: The amount banks set aside to take care of such NPAs.</li><li>Slippage ratio: The rate at which good girls go bad, or the speed at which good loans turn into NPAs</li></ol>But how are these plaguing the Indian banking sector? And what does the road ahead look like? We decode it for you. <h2> Microfinance: A not-so-micro-menace</h2>Microfinance loans were initially brought forth for low-income households and individuals, i.e. for those who might not generally have access to traditional ways of credit, like bank loans and more. They don’t require collateral or an asset to be pledged in lieu of the loan, making it a tad bit easier for borrowers. As of June 2024, the amount of outstanding loans in the microfinance industry stood at a staggering Rs 4,20,256 crore. Of this, NBFC-MFIs accounted for 40% and banks made for 33% of these. In 2022, <keyword id="30067" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="RBI" source="Orion">RBI</keyword>, in a bid to inspire some competition in this space, did something radical-they did away with the ceiling on how much interest MFIs could charge their customers. Previously, MFIs could add up to 12% to their cost of acquiring funds to determine the final interest rate chargeable to the consumer. So, assuming that Bank A incurs a 5% cost to acquire funds for further loaning, A could charge up to 17% interest from the end consumer. So, interest rates were in the hands of MFIs, and boy, did they have a gala time with it. Instead of spurring some healthy competition, as RBI expected, MFIs and banks went rogue and all guns blazing, competing for the title of “Who will charge the highest interest?” Recently, RBI banned 4 microfinance institutions (MFIs), namely Asirvad Micro Finance Limited, Arohan Financial Services Limited, DMI Finance Private Limited, and Navi Finserv, from disbursing loans effective October 21, 2024. Why? Because they were charging 14% extra interest over their original cost of funds. To maintain their loan books (and pockets), banks and NBFCs resorted to shady practices like netting off loans, which RBI has now advised MFIs against. Here, lenders allow borrowers to settle a previous outstanding loan by issuing them a new loan! As crazy as it sounds, it helped banks to report less of their total assets as NPAs, since the new credit would cover pending installments of the borrower’s previous loan. Then there was the issue of borrowers overleveraging, i.e. taking multiple loans using different IDs from various lenders and then failing to honor any of them. The consequence? Banks and NBFCs end up with massive NPAs. Data from credit bureaus suggests that over the last quarter, there was a 17.2% rise in the number of borrowers who had 5 or more active loans at the same time. <h2>Growth &gt; Caution</h2>It's an age-old tale unfolding yet again in India’s banking sector- Icarus flew too close to the sun and eventually, fell to its death. Between April and June 2024, NBFCs microfinance portfolio jumped by 2.7%. If you see this in terms of loan sources, microfinance loans issued by banks grew by 11.2% in Q1FY25. But the same portfolio in NBFCs swelled by almost double-23.9%. While most of these loans had an average ticket size between Rs 30,000-50,000, there was a sharp spike in the number of loans that had a ticket size of Rs 80,000 or more. Data suggests that as of March 2024, more than 12% of all microfinance borrowers had over 4 or more active loans. In dating parlance, this is a classic case of borrowers going polyamorous, minus the honesty and transparency. Not the best of situations, you'd agree! <h2>Will banks and NBFCs stand up to this stress?</h2>If their results for Q2FY25 are to be believed, NBFCs are not handling the pressure all that well. Or even slightly well. Only a few banks like Bank of Baroda (BoB), ICICI, and Indian Bank were up for the battle, even witnessing a decline in their loan delinquencies. Some others, like IndusInd Bank, saw their stock dip by a massive 16.2% over the last 5 days. Its slippages in the previous quarter burgeoned from Rs 15.3 billion in Q1FY25 to Rs 17.9 billion in Q2. As a result, the bank pushed a staggeringly high amount of money to create an NPA cushion for itself. While its management has highlighted its preference for secured lending, that was hardly reflected in its actions during the quarter, where growth in unsecured personal loans remained exceptionally high at over 7% on a QoQ basis. Turns out, only 44% of customers in IndusInd Banks’ microfinance loan portfolio were exclusive to it. The rest 47% were, you guessed it right-polyamorous! 27% had borrowed from another lender as well, apart from IndusInd Bank, while 20% were those who had outstanding loans with two other lenders, apart from IndusInd Bank. IndusInd Bank’s credit card segment did not miss the NPA bus and accounted for 7-8% of its GNPAs. Canara Bank’s total slippages during the previous quarter jumped to Rs 11.1 billion, up by 24.7% QoQ, and making up for 3.6% of its total loans. As for Bandhan Bank, its <keyword id="763994" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Gross-NPA" source="Orion">gross NPA</keyword> for Q2FY25 inched up on a QoQ basis, up from 4.23% in Q1, to 4.68% in the second quarter. <keyword id="62152" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="IDFC-bank" source="Orion">IDFC Bank</keyword>’s heavy provisioning for its NPAs marred its profits significantly, causing its PAT (profit after tax) to dip by 73% on a YoY basis. Data from ICRA Analytics suggest that the AUM (asset under management) growth in microfinance loans and unsecured (personal and business) loans by the NBFCs will moderate to 10-12% and 19-21%, respectively, in FY2025 compared to 30% and 38%, in FY2024. Says A M Karthik, Senior Vice President &amp; Co-Group Head, Financial Sector Ratings, ICRA, “As bank funds constitute a larger share in the overall funding of NBFCs, a slower credit flow from banks to the NBFCs will compress their AUM growth. The NBFCs in unsecured and digital lending businesses shall face a higher squeeze in funding compared to others, and the unsecured lending space will continue to be a source of stress in the near term.” There has been uninhibited growth in unsecured loans, apart from just the microfinance segment. For instance, Axis Bank’s gross slippages jumped by Rs 4,443 crore, largely thanks to its unsecured business. The same is the case with Yes Bank, which saw 35–40% of its retail slippages emerging from the unsecured loan portfolio. Kotak Mahindra Bank was also quick to follow Yes Bank’s suit, with around 35%-40% of its slippages coming from credit cards. <h2>How is the road ahead?</h2>While RBI has just cracked its whip and served a warning at the moment, experts at Morgan Stanley believe that more changes (read regulatory lashes) are underway. Moreover, with both festive and wedding seasons underway in our country, unsecured lending might pick up momentum, much to the disdain of the calibrated approach banks have been taking towards it so far. But if the situation doesn't improve, RBI will not waste any time in becoming the typical tyrannical Bollywood headmaster who runs his dominion with an iron fist and takes things (and ceiling rates) into their own hands. However, that's a story for another day.

Is the lending party over? The dangerous tango of Indian banks with microfinance and unsecured loans

Mumbai: The rupee fell sharply by 15 paise against the US dollar to 83.44 in early trade on Wednesday amid muted trends in the domestic equity markets. However, a decline in the dollar index and a marginal fall in the Brent crude index prevented further losses in the domestic unit, according to experts. At the interbank foreign exchange, the local unit opened at 84.38 -- down 9 paise from its previous close -- and then slid further to 84.44, registering a decline of 15 paise from its previous close. On Tuesday, the rupee pared its intra-day losses to settle flat at 84.29 against the US dollar. "The <keyword id="24182640" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Indian-banking-liquidity" source="keywords">Indian banking liquidity</keyword> fell into deficit as industry players paid Rs 1.6-1.8 lakh crore as GST payment. This was after two months that liquidity has fallen into a deficit as the RBI also intervened into forex markets to defend the rupee weighing on liquidity conditions," Anil Kumar Bhansali, Head of Treasury and Executive Director, Finrex Treasury Advisors LLP, said. "The rupee may be in the broad range of 84.00 to 84.50 in the near term as markets await a slew of data from the US this evening," Bhansali added. Meanwhile, the dollar index, which gauges the greenback's strength against a basket of six currencies, was down 0.15 per cent to 106.84. Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, was marginally down 0.10 per cent to USD 72.74 per barrel in futures trade. In the domestic equity market, the 30-share equity benchmark Sensex was trading 46.69 points lower, or 0.06 per cent, at 79,957.57 points. <keyword id="19932515" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Foreign-Institutional-Investors" source="keywords">Foreign Institutional Investors</keyword> (FIIs) were net buyers in the capital markets on Tuesday, purchasing shares worth Rs 1,157.70 crore, according to exchange data.

Rupee falls 15 paise to 83.44 against US dollar in early trade

Mumbai: The rupee slipped 1 paisa to an all-time low of 84.40 against the US dollar in early trade on Wednesday, as persistent <keyword id="20520117" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="foreign-fund-outflows" source="keywords">foreign fund outflows</keyword> and a muted trend in domestic equities weighed on the local unit. Forex traders said the USDINR pair has shown significant volatility in recent sessions, with the rupee inching closer to its all-time low of 84.40. This downward pressure is largely driven by global factors, particularly the Dollar Index's strengthening. At the interbank foreign exchange, the rupee opened at 84.40 against the greenback, registering a fall of 1 paisa over its previous close. On Tuesday, the rupee fell 1 paisa to a new lifetime low of 84.39 against the US dollar. "It appears that the rupee has established support around the current levels, with depreciation limited near 84.50," CR Forex Advisors MD Amit Pabari said. Pabari further added that the RBI stands tall as the depreciation in the rupee seems to be limited as the <keyword id="19899810" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="Reserve-Bank-of-India" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="Reserve Bank of India" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="Reserve Bank of India">Reserve Bank of India</keyword> (RBI) continues to sell the dollars to protect the sharp depreciation. "For the 5th consecutive week, India's forex reserves declined, possibly due to RBI selling the dollars. Currently, the forex reserves of India stand at USD 682 billion down from the recent all-time high of USD 704 billion," he said. Meanwhile, the dollar index, which gauges the greenback's strength against a basket of six currencies, was trading lower by 0.04 per cent at 105.98. Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, rose 0.25 per cent to USD 72.07 per barrel in futures trade. On the domestic equity market front, Sensex was trading 210.66 points, or 0.27 per cent lower, to 78,464.52 points. The Nifty fell 100.45 points, or 0.42 per cent, to 23,783.00 points. Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) were net sellers in the capital markets on Tuesday, as they offloaded shares worth Rs 3,024.31 crore, according to exchange data. On the macroeconomic front, retail inflation breached the Reserve Bank's upper tolerance level, soaring to a 14-month high of 6.21 per cent in October mainly on account of rising food prices. Inflation based on the consumer price index (CPI) was 5.49 per cent in September and 4.87 per cent in the year-ago month. India's industrial production expanded by 3.1 per cent in September after recording a contraction in the preceding month, as all three major segments -- mining, manufacturing, and power generation -- showed improvement. However, the growth in the Index of Industrial Production (IIP) during the month was lower than 6.4 per cent registered in September 2023.

Rupee falls 1 paisa to all-time low of 84.40 against US dollar in early trade

<ul class="summary-list"><li>The Dow closed above 44,000 and the S&amp;P 500 closed above 6,000 for the first time on Monday.</li><li>Bitcoin soared 8% to hit a record high as crypto's post-election rally continued. </li></ul>US stocks were higher on Monday, with the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/dow_jones">Dow Jones Industrial Average</a> jumping about 300 points while the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/nasdaq_100">Nasdaq 100</a> and <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/s&amp;p_500">S&amp;P 500</a> edged slightly higher.The Dow closed above the 44,000 level for the first time ever, while the S&amp;P 500 hit a record intra-day high and closed above the 6,000 level for the first time.The Trump trade was largely extended on Monday, with shares of Tesla, bitcoin, the US dollar, and shares of US banks all surging.Bitcoin jumped 8% to hit a record high of $87,478. Crypto investors continued to celebrate Trump's win, which the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/currencies/bitcoin-price-crypto-industry-donald-trump-election-reserve-regulation-sec-2024-11">market expects to be a positive</a> catalyst amid the President-Elect's promises of policies aimed at boosting the sector. Meanwhile, tech shares mostly slumped, with shares of <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/stocks/nvda-stock">Nvidia</a>, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/stocks/aapl-stock">Apple</a>, and <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/stocks/msft-stock">Microsoft</a>, the world's three largest companies, all down about 1%.Investors' top concern this week is inflation data, with consumer price index data for the month of October set to be released Wednesday morning.Economists expect a 2.5% year-over-year jump in CPI, compared to a rise of 2.4% in the prior month."While economic fundamentals suggest inflation should continue to moderate, policy changes pose an upside risk to the outlook. Nevertheless, we think the October CPI report will be good enough for the Fed to follow through with a 25bp cut in December," Bank of America said on Monday.In addition to inflation data, corporate earnings remain on investors' radars, though they are starting to wind down.So far, 91% of S&amp;P 500 companies have reported third-quarter results. Of those companies, 77% beat profit estimates by a median of 6%, while 59% beat revenue estimates by a median of 6%, according to data from Fundstrat.Nvidia is the last big company that will report earnings. The chip giant is scheduled to report its third-quarter results after the market close on November 20.Here's where US indexes stood at the 4:00 p.m. closing bell on Monday:<ul><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/s&amp;p_500?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">S&amp;P 500</a>: 6,001.35, up 0.10%</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/dow_jones?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Dow Jones Industrial Average</a>: 44,293.13, up 0.69% (+304.14 points)</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/nasdaq_composite?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Nasdaq composite</a>: 19,298.76, up 0.06% </li></ul>Here's what else happened today:<ul><li><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/tesla-short-sellers-losss-donald-trump-election-tsla-elon-musk-2024-11">Tesla short-sellers have lost $8 billion since Donald Trump's election win, according to S3 Partners.</a></li><li><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/trump-policies-tax-cuts-inflation-government-debt-deficit-jeremy-siegel-2024-11">President-elect Trump could dial back some of his proposed policies in a bid to not upset the stock market, Jeremy Siegel said.</a></li><li><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/donald-trump-election-win-high-inflation-risk-tariffs-deportations-taxes-2024-11">Economists say Trump could give Americans the very thing they voted against.</a></li><li><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/currencies/bitcoin-reaches-80000-for-first-time-trump-election-crypto-2024-11">Bitcoin surged past the $80,000 price level over the weekend and hit a high of $82,500.</a></li><li><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/retirement-saving-inflation-cost-of-living-crisis-investing-401k-pensions-2024-11">Americans' cost-of-living anxiety is creating a population of oversavers.</a></li></ul>In commodities, bonds, and crypto:<ul><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price">West Texas Intermediate</a> crude oil declined 3.13% to $68.18 a barrel. <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price">Brent crude</a>, the international benchmark, was lower by 2.59% to $71.96 a barrel.</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/gold-price">Gold</a> dropped 2.41% to $2,629.90 an ounce.</li><li>The 10-year Treasury yield was unchanged as the bond market was closed in observance of Veterans Day.</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/currencies/btc-usd">Bitcoin</a> surged 8.37% to $87,160.69.</li></ul>

Stock market today: Dow closes above 44,000, tech shares stumble as traders eye inflation data

<ul class="summary-list"><li>As fears over economic volatility and deficits grow, investors and central banks are buying gold.</li><li>Gold is often seen as a safe-haven asset among investors.</li></ul>Now is looking like a golden opportunity to <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/personal-finance/investing/how-to-invest-in-gold">invest in gold</a>.For decades, the yellow metal has been considered a safe-haven asset, serving as a hedge against high inflation and economic uncertainty due to its low correlation to stocks and bonds.And there's certainly no shortage of economic uncertainty right now. The US presidential election is right around the corner, inflation concerns remain elevated, geopolitical tensions are high, and the US national debt is reaching untenable levels.Investors and central banks alike have been snatching up gold. The asset's price hit another record high earlier this week at $2,739.40 per ounce after rising over 30% this year, and some analysts are setting a price target of $3,000.Investing in gold is slightly different from putting money into stocks or bonds. Below, two gold experts share four ways investors can add gold to their portfolios.<h2 id="f6498d65-9f43-415b-a374-53643e6db3e3">4 ways to invest in gold</h2>For starters, investors can purchase the metal directly.You can buy gold coins online. You can buy gold bars at Costco. Those strip mall stores with a big "We Buy Gold" sign? You can buy gold there, too.Buying the physical commodity is a tangible way to invest in gold, but it does have some drawbacks. Jeff Muhlenkamp, portfolio manager at Muhlenkamp &amp; Company, points out that there are transaction costs when buying directly from a gold dealer. The investor also has to ensure the gold is certified regarding purity and weight. Buyers must also consider secure storage solutions and insurance for their physical assets.In general, physical gold is a less liquid way to own the asset and is quite costly. "Most of the time when people go and buy gold coins, they'll pay a big premium upfront, and they'll probably suffer a discount when they come to sell at the end," George Milling-Stanley, chief gold strategist at State Street Global Advisors, said.Investors can avoid the complications of investing in bars and coins by buying a gold ETF instead.Physical gold ETFs can be bought through a brokerage account and are directly backed by gold bullion held in bank vaults, meaning that investors don't have to worry about storage or liquidity issues. Examples include the iShares Gold Trust fund (<a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/etfs/ishares-gold-trust-us4642852044?miRedirects=1">IAU</a>) and the SPDR Gold Shares fund (<a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/etfs/spdr-gold-shares-us78463v1070?miRedirects=1">GLD</a>).Synthetic gold ETFs don't hold physical gold, investing instead in gold derivatives such as futures and options. These ETFs can be cheaper than physically backed ones since they don't need to store the metal, but they have counterparty risk, or the risk of loss from a contract participant not fulfilling their obligation. Examples include the SPDR Gold MiniShares Trust (<a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/etfs/spdr-gold-minishares-us98149e3036?miRedirects=1">GLDM</a>) and the ProShares Ultra Gold fund (<a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/etfs/proshares-ultra-gold-us74347w6012?miRedirects=2">UGL</a>).For investors who want to get as close to the real thing without buying bars, physical gold ETFs tend to track changes in the price of gold more accurately than synthetic ones, Muhlenkamp said.Mining companies are another option for more indirect exposure. These can vary wildly in risk, so Milling-Stanley advises that investors approach these stocks with discretion. The multi-billion-dollar market-cap mining companies offer the most liquidity and stable business models. Smaller mining companies, known as junior miners, are in the exploration phase of looking for mineral deposits and might not be generating revenues, Muhlenkamp said.Mining stocks are less directly correlated with the price of gold than ETFs and may lag trends in gold prices by several months, Muhlenkamp said.In Milling-Stanley's opinion, investing in mining stocks instead of directly investing in gold erodes some of the metal's portfolio protection, as mining stocks behave more in line with the general equity market.This area of investment is definitely higher in risk, but if enthusiasm for gold continues to surge, more speculative mining stocks will enjoy the biggest upside, according to Muhlenkamp.Examples of mining stocks include Agnico-Eagle Mines (<a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/stocks/aem-stock">AEM</a>) and Newmont Mining Corp (<a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/stocks/nem-stock">NEM</a>).Gold royalty and streaming companies are yet another way to add gold to a portfolio. These companies finance gold mines and receive a percentage of the gold produced.Royalties limit the holder's exposure to the risks associated with directly investing in mines, such as exploration, development, and regulatory compliance. Royalty and streaming companies are a good way to gain exposure to junior mines but still retain liquidity, especially for investors who don't have the ability or resources to conduct due diligence, Muhlenkamp said.Examples of gold royalty companies include Franco-Nevada (<a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/stocks/fnv-stock">FNV</a>) and Wheaton Precious Metals (<a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/stocks/wpm-stock">WPM</a>).

4 ways to add gold to your portfolio as investors pile in and send prices to record highs  

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Interest rates and stock returns are expected to decline, impacting investment strategies.</li><li>Historically, stocks and bonds have alternated in performance, affecting portfolio decisions.</li></ul>A diversified investing strategy means a split between stocks and <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/personal-finance/investing/what-is-a-bond">bonds</a>, at minimum. But for the better part of the last two decades, interest rates were near zero, and real returns in bonds were lacking.Still, investors added them to their portfolios because history has shown us that asset classes can zig and zag, with long <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/stock-and-bond-market-correlation-normal-2014-2">periods of stock market outperformance</a> relative to bonds and intervals where that dynamic flipped.The last two years were great for both asset classes. Elevated rates put the bond market back on investors' minds, while the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/s&amp;p_500">S&amp;P 500</a> had a solid 26% total return. But depending on who you ask, the future may not be as bright.Yields will be less attractive as the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/interest-rate-cuts-federal-reserve-election-jerome-powell-inflation-jobs-2024-11#:~:text=The%20Fed%20cut%20interest%20rates,country%20recovered%20from%20the%20pandemic.">Fed begins its rate cuts</a> for this cycle. Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs expects stock-market returns to be muted for the coming decade. The S&amp;P 500 is predicted to see a mere 3% annualized return over the next 10 years, which could lag the 10-year Treasury at an expected 4% yield, according to a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/how-to-beat-stock-market-returns-next-decade-goldman-sachs-2024-10">recent note</a> by the investment bank's chief US equity strategist David Kostin.If the bears are right, investors may be forced to take on more risk for returns. Sounds gloomy, but for bond traders like Mark Rieder, who has over two decades of experience in the sector, it could be an opportunity to dig for bargains in corporate credit.Generating alpha for a credit trader could mean beating a peer, a Bloomberg fixed income index that matches the category of bonds traded, or simply remaining in positive territory in terms of total returns when the market is down, Rieder told Business Insider."Over the past 10 years, when interest rates were very low, it was not an exciting time to be a credit analyst and a portfolio manager," Rieder said. "But it's much more interesting today, and I'm really excited about that."However, active debt investing takes a good level of skill and consistent effort to make the right credit selection, according to his new book, "Reminiscences of a Bond Operator." Like the stock-picking process, following the crowd or consensus won't result in alpha. A credit trader must conduct the same level of fundamental analysis and dig into a company's balance sheet, earnings calls, 10Qs, and 10Ks, among other things, to determine valuation."I've always believed that a good credit analyst is also a really good equity analyst because you really need to understand the capital structure of the companies that you're evaluating and all of their different needs," Rieder said. "Most companies want to have their stock price go up, and so as a credit analyst, you need to understand that so that you can understand what their motivations are."It's especially important now, as the credit space faces its own set of challenges. Like the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/personal-finance/investing/are-we-in-a-recession">business cycle</a>, credit has its booms and busts based on macro conditions and supply and demand. In a strong economic environment, corporate cash flows rise, and companies increase borrowing with favorable lending terms. But when times are tight, companies deleverage until their debt is less than their cash flow. Once that equilibrium is satisfied, more borrowing ensues, according to his book.Rieder said credit is in the boom part of the cycle. This might sound surprising, considering debt has been expensive for the better part of the last two years. But most companies were locked into low yields before rates rose, he noted. As debt turnover increases, investors need to be cautious."There's a lag impact on the increase in rates. Most companies borrow for long periods of time, five years, 10 years," Rieder said. "A lot of companies issued debt when interest rates were very low. They're now only starting to refinance that low-coupon debt. That, in turn, is what causes an impact."He doesn't expect that the Fed's cutting cycle will mitigate the crunch. The central bank can impact front-end yields, but the back end is driven by additional considerations, he noted. The 10-year rose to 4.3% shortly after the first rate cut of September, a signal that <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-election-forecast-most-accurate-economist-predicts-outcome-economic-impact-2024-10">investors were looking ahead</a> at other economic risk factors, including concerns over the government's ballooning deficit, he added. Additionally, economic conditions such as elevated credit card debt pose concerns for future corporate profits.<h2 id="101d0bc7-10c7-46f9-a758-eea160588283">Trading credit</h2>Right now, investment-grade credit spreads are tight. The yields in corporate bonds aren't much higher than in government bonds, meaning less compensation for more risk. But if we move from the boom to the bust phase, credit spreads could widen, and that could create opportunities in the credit space, he said.While spreads are tight, he prefers front-end yield or pairing trades with cheap optionality. The cost of shorting a credit index like the CDX Investment Grade 5-Year Index, a credit-default-swap index that tracks the credit risk of large US investment-grade companies, is low. And since spreads are trading at historically tight levels, it's less likely to get much lower, which could limit potential losses, he said. This position can then be paired with a trade expected to perform positively.An example he provides of a market-neutral pair trade could look like buying a corporate bond in a sector with structural tailwinds, such as a natural gas producer set to benefit from increased demand and rising energy prices, or airplane lessors who benefit from higher lease rates due to a tight aircraft supply — a situation that's unlikely to ease in the near term because of production challenges faced by manufacturers. Then, take a short position in an interest-rate future to hedge against the bond's interest-rate risk."This trade works if natural gas prices remain stable or rise, leading the energy bond to outperform the overall corporate bond market," Rieder said. "It's an excellent opportunity to capitalize on the current tight credit spread conditions and complacency in the overall credit market."Having liquidity can also give you an upper hand. As spreads widen, investors may be forced into selling higher-quality credit because they can't offload the lower-quality ones, he said."There are huge opportunities in credit if you remain liquid during dislocations," Rieder said. "Other investors are going to be looking for liquidity. They can't sell what they want to, so they sell what they can, and that can lead to opportunities to buy cheap assets."

A veteran bond operator shares an alpha-generating strategy for dropping yields and muted stock-market returns

<ul class="summary-list"><li>The election outcome is unlikely to impact stock prices, according to Bank of America.</li><li>Stock market performance is driven by profit growth, not shifts in the political landscape, the bank said.</li></ul>The outcome of the Presidential election in November should have little impact on the direction of stock prices, according to <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/stocks/bac-stock">Bank of America.</a>In a note on Friday, Bank of America strategist Savita Subramanian highlighted that the stock market rarely cares about which political party controls the White House.Instead, investors' focus should be squarely on profit growth."Profits accelerating are far more important than who is sitting in the Oval Office," Subramanian said.Furthermore, targeted policies from lawmakers on Capitol Hill can often have the opposite impact on a sector than investors would have thought.For example, when former President Donald Trump took office in 2017, energy stocks were seen as a likely winner due to his friendly stance towards oil drilling, while renewable energy stocks were seen as a likely loser.Instead, the energy sector was the worst-performing sector when Trump was in office, losing 29% even as the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/s&amp;p_500">S&amp;P 500</a> surged 83%. Meanwhile, the clean energy sector rose 306% during Trump's presidency, according to data from YCharts.When President Joe Biden took office in 2021, many investors viewed the traditional energy sector as a likely loser due to the Democrats' typical unfriendliness toward oil companies, while clean energy stocks were seen as potential winners.Today, the opposite is true: traditional energy stocks have been the best-performing sector during Biden's presidency, rising 139%, while the clean energy sector is the worst-performing sector, down about 55%."Even directed policies have sometimes had opposite outcomes vs expectations," Subramanian said, adding that "there are nuances."This time around, Subramanian said investor expectations of stock market implications based on who wins the Presidency could once again fall flat.For example, while a Republican sweep of the White House and Congress may be viewed as favorable for Tesla stock, as CEO Elon Musk has warmly embraced Trump and the Republican party, it could actually be a negative because electric-vehicle tax credits would likely be at risk.Ultimately, Subramanian and her team expect the stock market to rise in 2025 regardless of who wins the election in November.That's because she expects 13% year-over-year growth in the S&amp;P 500's earnings per share next year, and profit growth has historically been the biggest driver of stock market gains."Profits matter more than politics," Subramanian said.<div type="image" title="Stock market" height="489" width="1200" msid="114438606" hostid="261" sizebytes="35498"></div>

Elections have little impact on stock prices. Here's what investors should focus on instead. 

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Bank of America analysts raised their price target for Nvidia stock to $190 a share this week.</li><li>They see the AI market growing to $400 billion, giving Nvidia a "generational opportunity."</li></ul>Nvidia stock has been on a tear all year, but investors can brace for even more gains ahead, Bank of America analysts say.In a Thursday note, the analysts raised their price objective on the stock from $165 to $190. That implies a 38% upside from its price of about $138 a share at midday on Friday. The analysts point to exponential growth in the AI market in the coming years, which they say will give Nvidia a "generational opportunity" as the chip titan continues to strengthen its lead in the market.The analysts see the AI accelerator market growing to $280 billion by 2027, and toward upwards of $400 billion over time — marking huge growth from $45 billion in 2023.As AI models continue to grow rapidly—with developers like OpenAI, Google, and Meta launching new large language models several times per year—the need for computing will only grow, the analysts predict. Each new major LLM generation, especially those developed for larger size and better reasoning capabilities, will require greater training intensity, they add."We continue to see the pace of new model development increase. LLMs in particular are being developed for both larger size and better reasoning capabilities, which both require greater training intensity," the analysts said.They also point to Nvidia's strong partnerships with enterprise customers like Accenture, ServiceNow, Oracle, and others, which show the growing presence of AI at big companies and Nvidia's role as partner of choice."NVDA's engagements span multiple verticals (e.g., Accenture, ServiceNow, Microsoft), and offerings such as AI Foundry, AI Hubs, NIMs are key levers to its AI leadership, not only on the hardware side but also on systems/ecosystems side," the analysts said.The analysts also said Nvidia's financials are set up well for future gains. Given its free cash flow generation at 45%-50% margins, which is nearly double that of other Magnificent 7 stocks, Nvidia will be able to generate $200 billion in free cash flow over the next two years, they wrote.Nvidia's stock has skyrocketed this year, up 187% as AI continues to boom after a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/big-tech-investors-wary-high-ai-spending-markets-selloff-nasdaq-2024-7">brief sell-off</a> over the summer. The sector has since recovered, with chip stocks like Nvidia and TSMC trading at or near all-time highs in recent weeks.

Nvidia stock has another 38% upside amid a 'generational opportunity' in AI, Bank of America says

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Traders and central banks should increase exposure to gold, Bank of America says.</li><li>The strategists say Treasurys face risks as US debt levels soar. </li></ul>Gold is increasingly attractive as other traditional "safe haven" assets face mounting risks, Bank of America strategists said.The strategists said investors, including central banks, should rotate into the precious metal, which bulls tout as a hedge against inflation and debt debasement resulting from rising government borrowing. "Gold looks to be the last 'safe haven' asset standing, incentivising traders including central banks to increase exposure," the strategists said in a Wednesday note.They explained that with US debt expected to keep soaring, Treasury supply faces risks. At the same time, higher interest rate payments as a share of GDP will make gold an attractive asset in the next few years.Rising spending is alson't merely a US issue. The analyst notes that the International Monetary Fund predicts new spending could amount to 7%-8% of global GDP annually by 2030. "Ultimately, something has to give: if markets become reluctant to absorb all the debt and volatility increases, gold may become the asset of choice. Central banks in particular could further diversify their currency reserves," the analysts wrote. With neither candidate for the upcoming US presidential election prioritizing fiscal discipline and a pullback in spending, national debt is projected to hit a record high as a share of the economy in the next three years, the analysts said.That will increase interest payments as a share of GDP, making gold an attractive asset amid concerns that markets won't be able to absorb new debt, they add."Indeed, with lingering concerns over US funding needs and their impact on the US Treasury market, the yellow metal may become the ultimate perceived safe haven asset," the analysts said.The analysts reaffirmed their target of $3,000 an ounce for gold by the end of next year, which implies 11.1% upside from levels on Thursday. The analysts' bullishness for the metal comes as worries grow over mounting spending and debt around the world. Investors have increasingly looked to gold in recent weeks as the Federal Reserve kicked off its easing cycle with a 50-basis point interest rate cut last month, driving the price of gold to gain around 4.3% in the last month.Central banks around the world have also increased their share of gold as a portion of total reserves. The Bank of America analysts note that gold now makes up 10% of central bank reserves, up from 3% a decade ago.

Gold is the 'last safe haven' as Treasurys face risks from soaring US debt, Bank of America says

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Saudi Arabia is committed to boosting oil output in December, the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.ft.com/content/1d186f62-5941-4f9e-aef1-7d93a8a696cd">FT reported</a>.</li><li>The kingdom is resigning itself to a period a lower prices, sources told the FT.</li></ul>A report that Saudi Arabia would ditch its unofficial crude price target sent crude oil prices sharply lower on Thursday.According to sources that spoke with the <a target="_blank" href="https://www.ft.com/content/1d186f62-5941-4f9e-aef1-7d93a8a696cd">Financial Times</a>, the kingdom will no longer seek a $100 per barrel price and is instead ready to increase oil output.Speculation has mounted over what the world's largest oil exporter may do. Even as Saudi Arabia and other OPEC+ members have progressively<a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/surprise-oil-cutbacks-send-prices-soaring-30-year-oil-expert-2023-11"> cut oil output</a> to prop up global pricing, waning demand pushed crude to its lowest level since 2021 earlier this month.Despite this, those familiar with the matter said that Riyadh is prepared to boost output as scheduled on December 1. In essence, the kingdom is giving in to lower prices, FT sources said.Markets spiraled on the news, dropping over 3%. Brent crude, the international benchmark, fell as low as $70.7 as of 11:00 am ET. An even steeper decline hit US West Texas Intermediate, hitting $67 a barrel.The kingdom's decision may seem counterintuitive, as the $100 per barrel threshold <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/crude-oil-prices-demand-collapse-saudi-arabia-production-russia-opec-2023-9">is considered essential</a> to financing the Saudi budget. Yet, sources told FT that Riyadh is no longer comfortable ceding its market share to other producers by limiting production.OPEC's joint efforts to support higher prices have also been made difficult by the fact that some coalition members have partially disregarded the restrictions. One source told FT that, if countries such as Iraq and Kazakhstan do not commit to curbing supply, Riyadh may unwind its own cuts quicker than expected.Under the current plan, Saudi Arabia will boost its monthly production by 83,000 barrels per day each month from December.Prices have stayed low as China, a key consumer of global oil, has signaled a lackluster appetite for the commodity.According to <a target="_blank" href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-09-25/latest-oil-market-news-and-analysis-for-sept-26">Bloomberg</a>, developments in Libya also added to Thursday's oil plunge.The country agreed to appoint a new central bank governor, ending a deadlock between rival administrations. The eastern-based faction has committed to reopening the country's oil fields in response, a move that could bring more crude output back online.

Why oil prices have plunged 3% today

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Wall Street's bullishness for Nvidia stock endures even as shares trade at record highs. </li><li>Analysts are upbeat about the next-gen Blackwell chip and Nvidia's web of enterprise partnerships.</li></ul>Nvidia stock is trading at record highs, but that's not deterring top Wall Street analysts from being bullish. Bank analysts have been hiking their price targets for the chip titan in recent weeks, predicting more upside even as the stock has seen a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/nvidia-stock-price-blackwell-ai-market-value-costco-jensen-huang-2024-10">meteoric rise</a> over the past year.Shares traded above $142 each on Monday, hitting a fresh record as investors gear up for the company's next earnings report on November 20. The stock is up 193% year-to-date. But Nvidia still has plenty of room to climb, according to forecasters. They point to signs of frenzied demand for the company's AI-enabling GPU chips and a long list of partnerships with enterprise "hyperscalers." Here's what some of Wall Street's top forecasters are saying about their bullish outlook for the stock. <h3 id="724900f4-99db-4302-98bd-dea4cac3d847">Bank of America, $190 price target</h3>BofA strategists <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/nvidia-stock-upside-growth-ai-chips-demand-bofa-2024-10#:~:text=Bank%20of%20America%20analysts%20raised,helped%20by%20its%20enterprise%20partnerships.">raised their price target</a> for the chipmaker to $190 from $165 per share last week, implying another 35% upside from the stock's current levels.The upside will be driven by Nvidia's competitive advantage over other chipmakers, as well as the "generational opportunity" in the AI market, which is expected to grow to $400 billion, analysts said in a note."Driven by our increased NVDA Data Center Compute outlook, we now see the AI accelerator market growing to $280bn by CY27E (and over time toward $400bn+) from just ~$45bn in CY23. AI models (demand) continue to evolve," the bank added.Strategists pointed to positive signs for Nvidia's future chip demand, including commentary from <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/nvidia-impact-q1-earnings-season-ai-nvda-stock-price-capex-2024-5">other tech firms</a> and comments from CEO Jensen Huang, who described the demand for Nvidia's upcoming Blackwell chip as "<a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/nvidia-stock-price-jensen-huang-blackwell-gpu-demand-ai-tech-2024-10">insane</a>."Nvidia, meanwhile, also has a number of "underappreciated" business partnerships with firms like <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/stocks/acn-stock">Accenture</a> and <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/nvidia-stock-price-reaction-microsoft-partnership-for-minecraft-graphics-overhaul-2019-8">Microsoft</a>, which should contribute to the upside potential. "We also highlight a growing presence of AI in enterprise, where NVDA is the partner of choice," the bank said. "NVDA's engagements span multiple verticals (e.g., Accenture, ServiceNow, Microsoft), and offerings such as AI Foundry, AI Hubs, NIMs are key levers to its AI leadership, not only on the hardware side but also on systems/ecosystems side."<h3 id="6a528da2-bcac-4a58-87fb-9d0b14415a80">Goldman Sachs, $150 price target</h3>Goldman analysts raised their price target to $150 from $135 a share, implying 6% upside from the stock's current levels.Strategists said they changed their price target after a meeting with Huang. The Nvidia CEO spoke of the company's advantage over other chipmakers, and the bank said that Nvidia's "competitive moat" is built on the firm's installed base, its innovation, and its "robust and growing" software offerings. "Although we acknowledge that the company's revenue trajectory beyond CY2025 remains uncertain, we expect the stock to perform at least consistent with estimate revisions given relative valuation multiples that remain depressed relative to history ... and the potential for a re-acceleration in fundamentals driven by the upcoming Blackwell product cycle," strategists wrote.Blackwell could also help produce several billion dollars in revenue for Nvidia, the strategists estimated."By integrating seven chips, and each playing a role in delivering higher performance at the data center level, we view the introduction and ramp of Blackwell not only as a near- and medium-term revenue growth driver, but also a dynamic that extends Nvidia's competitive advantage. The ramp of Blackwell-based products remains on track with several billion dollars in revenue expected in the January quarter followed by further growth in April and beyond."<h3 id="7231a134-d8fb-40e0-8065-37b2205636b4">CFRA Research, $160 price target</h3>The research firm CFRA raised its price target to $160 from $139 per share, implying a 13% upside from current levels. According to Angelo Zino, a senior equity analyst at CFRA, that's due to increased confidence that Nvidia will post better-than-expected growth, particularly as customers scramble to get their hands on the new Blackwell chip."The higher multiple and target reflect our higher conviction that NVDA will post results that exceed our/consensus views in CY 25, as Blackwell ramps. As we previously cited, Blackwell will take greater wallet share from hyperscalers (e.g., greater GPU, CPU, networking, and software revenue) amid an AI war in the cloud," Zino wrote.<h3 id="1efd5f91-dce2-45d4-bfa2-1ada5f7366f2">Bernstein, $155 price target</h3>Bernstein raised its price target to $155 a share shortly after the chipmaker reported its second-quarter earnings in August. Similar to other firms' forecasts, Bernstein's upside prediction is based on the success of the Blackwell GPU. "People are getting excited about the story again, especially as we approach earnings, and then year-end into next year is their new platform, Blackwell, really starts to ramp. Look, by all indications, their own commentary, all the supply checks and everything else, demand for this product just looks off the charts," Rasgon said in an interview with <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SM8AcE18AN0">CNBC</a> in early October. "This cycle, if the checks are any indication, must potentially be massive," he added.

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