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Mumbai: Indian stock markets rallied on Monday after the <keyword id="20032950" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="BJP-led-government" source="keywords">BJP-led government</keyword> secured a majority in the latest state elections in Maharashtra. The <keyword id="20641216" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="Nifty-50" source="keywords">Nifty 50</keyword> index gained more than 1.45 per cent or 346.30 points to open at 24,253.55 points, while the BSE <keyword id="19896382" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Sensex" source="keywords">Sensex</keyword> index surged 1,076 points or 1.36 percent to open at 80,193.47 points. Experts noted that the election results have an impact on the markets today, and if past trends are followed, the markets may witness some rally amid the return of the BJP in the Maharashtra state elections. <keyword id="20161891" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Ajay-Bagga" source="keywords">Ajay Bagga</keyword> Banking and Market Expert stated that "The just concluded elections in Maharashtra, the results of which were declared on November 23rd, will have a positive immediate impact on the stock markets. The landslide win for the BJP lead coalition in the Maharashtra state elections could lead to a short-term boost to the Indian stock markets which have been in a declining mode" He further added "Investors will interpret this mandate as favourable for the capex and infrastructure push that is ongoing in Maharashtra. The beneficiary sectors of this election are industrials, infrastructure, manufacturing, real estate and financials". In the sectoral indices on the National Stock Exchange, <keyword id="20065014" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Nifty-Realty" source="keywords">Nifty Realty</keyword> and <keyword id="19941314" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Nifty-PSU-Bank" source="keywords">Nifty PSU Bank</keyword> rallied with a surge of more than 2 percent, while other major indices also gained more than 1.5 per cent, including Nifty Metal, Nifty Media, and Nifty Oil &amp; Gas. In the Nifty 50 list, 49 stocks gained during the opening session, while only one stock declined. Shri Finance opened as the top gainer in the Nifty 50. The shares of the AdGroup also surged around 2 percent at the time of filing this report. <keyword id="19967296" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Adani-Green" source="keywords">Adani Green</keyword> also climbed around 4 percent. "We are most likely to break the falling 20-day average that lies at 24,030, which will be the first time that'd happen since the record high of 27th September. Seasonality trends between now and the end of the year have been historically positive, with the Nifty rising 80% of the time during this period with an average return of over 4 per cent" Akshay Chinchalkar, Head of Research, Axis Securities. In other Asian markets, Japan and South Korea indices rallied. The Nikkei 225 index surged more than 1.5 percent, South Korea's Kospi also rose by 1.5 percent, Taiwan's Weighted Index was up by 0.48 percent, while Hong Kong's Hang Seng index was down marginally by 0.14 percent at the time of filing this report.

Nifty, Sensex rallied around 1.5 % after Maharashtra election results, Experts noted short term rally

Foreign investors have withdrawn nearly Rs 20,000 crore from Indian stock markets in just five trading days (November 4–8), continuing a trend of large-scale selling that began last month. Experts say investors are now moving their money to China, largely due to the high valuations presently prevailing in Indian markets. In early November, FPIs have offloaded as much as Rs 19,994 crore in Indian markets. The month prior, i.e., October, was one of the worst months in terms of foreign outflows, with FPIs making a net withdrawal of Rs 94,017 crore. Before this, Indian markets faced such a situation during the pandemic, when FPIs withdrew Rs 61,973 crore from equities in March 2020. <h2>Why Are Investors Leaving? </h2>According to Himanshu Srivastava of Morningstar Investment Research India, two main factors are driving this exodus. First is China's renewed appeal due to lower stock valuations and new economic stimulus measures. In a bid to nudge the domestic economy and bail state governments, China recently approved a 10-trillion yuan (US $1.4 trillion) package. Per reports, approximately 60% of this stimulus focuses on allowing local governments to refinance the mountain of debt on them. Srivastava explains foreign investors are also flocking to US dollar and Treasury yields, which have appreciated significantly in the recent past, leading FPIs to anticipate a stronger US economy going ahead. Moreover, high valuations in Indian markets are discouraging foreign investors from putting more money in the economy. As a result, over the past week, the selling pressure eroded Rs 74,563 crore in market value for Reliance Industries, while Bharti Airtel and ICICI Bank lost Rs 26,274 crore and Rs 22,254 crore, respectively. The combined market valuation of six of the top 10 most-valued firms dipped by Rs 1,55,721.12 crore last week. <h2> Silver linings</h2>Despite the ongoing outflux of funds since last month, November also saw unprecedented applications of about 40–50 new FPI registrations, which are eyeing to enter the Indian market. This was due to markets SEBIs recent relaxation to NRIs, permitting them to participate up to 100% and announcing measures for ease of entry and operations in India. On the other hand, FPIs invested Rs 599 crore in the debt general limit and Rs 2,896 crore in the debt voluntary retention route (VRR) during the period under review. So far this year, FPIs have invested Rs 1.06 lakh crore in the debt market. <li class="whitespace-normal break-words"></li>Going ahead, investors will be looking for certain macroeconomic cues, which include corporate earnings reports, India's inflation (CPI) and industrial production (IIP) data on November 12, the US inflation report on November 13, and wholesale price index (WPI) data on November 14.

FPIs withdraw nearly Rs 20,000 crore from equities in the last 5 trading sessions, make a beeline for China and US

Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) have been rapidly exiting Indian markets, and this high-speed exodus does not look like it will stop anytime soon. In October 2024, FIIs withdrew Rs 1,14,445.89 crores from Indian markets. Yesterday, FIIs withdrew $770.67 million from the markets, with equity outflows of $440.86 million and debt outflows standing at $327.44 million across various categories. Per NSDL data, hybrid outflows amounted to $2.31 million. While this may sound dissuading at first, a recent SBI report underlined that FIIs still hold a massive $ 18.241 billion in Indian markets. So far, FY25 has seen FII inflows worth $ 8.924 billion. However, the situation may quickly turn alarming as well, given that FII holdings in Indian equities have already come down to a 12-year low. Says Anirudh Garg, Partner and Fund Manager at Invasset PMS, "The current valuation of Indian stocks, trading at around 24 times expected earnings, appears high compared to Chinese stocks, which are at approximately 10 times. Economic concerns, including weak corporate earnings and declining consumer demand, further exacerbate this situation. Additionally, renewed fears of inflation and potential monetary tightening by central banks have led FIIs to withdraw from the Indian market." In the meantime, DIIs (domestic institutional investors) are stepping in big time. During October 2024, DIIs infused Rs 1,07,254.68 crore in Indian markets. In November so far, DIIs have been keeping the fund momentum going, infusing Rs 12,265.74 crore in India, while FIIs have offloaded Rs 16,445.49 crore this month. But despite this strong uptick, SBI's recent report suggests that consumer confidence in India remains below 100, signaling muted positivity and optimism in the economy. While household consumption is gradually recovering, it grew at 4% last year, much below the 7% levels recorded pre-pandemic. <h2>FII share in <keyword id="20868945" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="NSE-listed-companies" source="keywords">NSE-listed companies</keyword> takes a dip, DII stake rise </h2>FIIs share in NSE-listed companies stood at 15.98% in October, with assets under their custody in the equity segment coming to Rs 71.08 lakh crore last month. In September, this stood at Rs 77.96 crore. Experts suggest that this is likely to continue for some time to come. Mutual funds, on the other hand, saw their share in NSE-listed companies hit a record high of 9.58%, as opposed to their 9.32% stake in September 2024. FIIs turned net sellers in the debt segment as well in October, dumping $771 million in Indian markets. This comes after 2 consecutive months of healthy inflows in this segment in August and September 2024, where the figures stood at $2,806 million and $2,295 million, respectively.

FII stake in Indian equities dips to a 12-year low

Imagine this. You have a younger sibling you’re mighty envious of. And why not? Unlike you, they seem to enjoy all the freedom and money in the world. They party like there’s no tomorrow, and here you are, stuck in a boring, ultra-disciplined but responsible routine that feels completely devoid of any independence, and mostly, funds. But of late, things are changing. This sibling is in massive trouble and just cannot escape the parent’s wrath anymore. Long story short, the party is over, and it is time to go back home. The rising defaults on this sibling’s part have now begun pulling the entire house down, thereby attracting the regulator’s ire. <h2>The Wild West of microfinance and unsecured loans</h2>It's hard to ignore the issues with microfinance and unsecured loans in India. Many saw them as a small gamble and ignored the rising defaults much like the younger siblings’ tantrums, and now they find themselves in hot waters. The skyrocketing instances of non-payments aren't a micro-issue anymore and are threatening the stability of the entire banking system. In the quarter ended September 30, 2024, 5 of India’s 8 largest private sector <keyword id="19934118" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="banks" source="keywords">banks</keyword> reported a steep rise in their bad loan book, mostly thanks to microfinance loans. Some banks, in a bid to strengthen their fortress against these <keyword id="142154" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="bad-loans" source="Orion">bad loans</keyword>, have significantly upped their provisions. For instance, <keyword id="46717" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="IndusInd-bank" source="Orion">IndusInd Bank</keyword> set aside Rs 525 crore during July and September 2024 to battle the menace of defaults on microfinance loans, which make up about 9% of its total loan book. See, banks rely heavily on their interest income, which they earn from advancing loans. Any loan where the borrower has not paid interest to the bank or defaulted for 90 days or more becomes bad, i.e., an <keyword id="79363" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="npa" source="Orion">NPA</keyword>, or non-performing asset for the bank. And who likes things going bad? Simply put, there has been a steep rise in three areas, much to the dislike of banks and MFIs (micro-finance institutions). But hey, it's mostly their doing! <ol><li>GNPA ratio (gross net performing assets): The quantum of non-performing assets a bank has in proportion to its total assets.</li><li>Provision: The amount banks set aside to take care of such NPAs.</li><li>Slippage ratio: The rate at which good girls go bad, or the speed at which good loans turn into NPAs</li></ol>But how are these plaguing the Indian banking sector? And what does the road ahead look like? We decode it for you. <h2> Microfinance: A not-so-micro-menace</h2>Microfinance loans were initially brought forth for low-income households and individuals, i.e. for those who might not generally have access to traditional ways of credit, like bank loans and more. They don’t require collateral or an asset to be pledged in lieu of the loan, making it a tad bit easier for borrowers. As of June 2024, the amount of outstanding loans in the microfinance industry stood at a staggering Rs 4,20,256 crore. Of this, NBFC-MFIs accounted for 40% and banks made for 33% of these. In 2022, <keyword id="30067" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="RBI" source="Orion">RBI</keyword>, in a bid to inspire some competition in this space, did something radical-they did away with the ceiling on how much interest MFIs could charge their customers. Previously, MFIs could add up to 12% to their cost of acquiring funds to determine the final interest rate chargeable to the consumer. So, assuming that Bank A incurs a 5% cost to acquire funds for further loaning, A could charge up to 17% interest from the end consumer. So, interest rates were in the hands of MFIs, and boy, did they have a gala time with it. Instead of spurring some healthy competition, as RBI expected, MFIs and banks went rogue and all guns blazing, competing for the title of “Who will charge the highest interest?” Recently, RBI banned 4 microfinance institutions (MFIs), namely Asirvad Micro Finance Limited, Arohan Financial Services Limited, DMI Finance Private Limited, and Navi Finserv, from disbursing loans effective October 21, 2024. Why? Because they were charging 14% extra interest over their original cost of funds. To maintain their loan books (and pockets), banks and NBFCs resorted to shady practices like netting off loans, which RBI has now advised MFIs against. Here, lenders allow borrowers to settle a previous outstanding loan by issuing them a new loan! As crazy as it sounds, it helped banks to report less of their total assets as NPAs, since the new credit would cover pending installments of the borrower’s previous loan. Then there was the issue of borrowers overleveraging, i.e. taking multiple loans using different IDs from various lenders and then failing to honor any of them. The consequence? Banks and NBFCs end up with massive NPAs. Data from credit bureaus suggests that over the last quarter, there was a 17.2% rise in the number of borrowers who had 5 or more active loans at the same time. <h2>Growth &gt; Caution</h2>It's an age-old tale unfolding yet again in India’s banking sector- Icarus flew too close to the sun and eventually, fell to its death. Between April and June 2024, NBFCs microfinance portfolio jumped by 2.7%. If you see this in terms of loan sources, microfinance loans issued by banks grew by 11.2% in Q1FY25. But the same portfolio in NBFCs swelled by almost double-23.9%. While most of these loans had an average ticket size between Rs 30,000-50,000, there was a sharp spike in the number of loans that had a ticket size of Rs 80,000 or more. Data suggests that as of March 2024, more than 12% of all microfinance borrowers had over 4 or more active loans. In dating parlance, this is a classic case of borrowers going polyamorous, minus the honesty and transparency. Not the best of situations, you'd agree! <h2>Will banks and NBFCs stand up to this stress?</h2>If their results for Q2FY25 are to be believed, NBFCs are not handling the pressure all that well. Or even slightly well. Only a few banks like Bank of Baroda (BoB), ICICI, and Indian Bank were up for the battle, even witnessing a decline in their loan delinquencies. Some others, like IndusInd Bank, saw their stock dip by a massive 16.2% over the last 5 days. Its slippages in the previous quarter burgeoned from Rs 15.3 billion in Q1FY25 to Rs 17.9 billion in Q2. As a result, the bank pushed a staggeringly high amount of money to create an NPA cushion for itself. While its management has highlighted its preference for secured lending, that was hardly reflected in its actions during the quarter, where growth in unsecured personal loans remained exceptionally high at over 7% on a QoQ basis. Turns out, only 44% of customers in IndusInd Banks’ microfinance loan portfolio were exclusive to it. The rest 47% were, you guessed it right-polyamorous! 27% had borrowed from another lender as well, apart from IndusInd Bank, while 20% were those who had outstanding loans with two other lenders, apart from IndusInd Bank. IndusInd Bank’s credit card segment did not miss the NPA bus and accounted for 7-8% of its GNPAs. Canara Bank’s total slippages during the previous quarter jumped to Rs 11.1 billion, up by 24.7% QoQ, and making up for 3.6% of its total loans. As for Bandhan Bank, its <keyword id="763994" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Gross-NPA" source="Orion">gross NPA</keyword> for Q2FY25 inched up on a QoQ basis, up from 4.23% in Q1, to 4.68% in the second quarter. <keyword id="62152" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="IDFC-bank" source="Orion">IDFC Bank</keyword>’s heavy provisioning for its NPAs marred its profits significantly, causing its PAT (profit after tax) to dip by 73% on a YoY basis. Data from ICRA Analytics suggest that the AUM (asset under management) growth in microfinance loans and unsecured (personal and business) loans by the NBFCs will moderate to 10-12% and 19-21%, respectively, in FY2025 compared to 30% and 38%, in FY2024. Says A M Karthik, Senior Vice President &amp; Co-Group Head, Financial Sector Ratings, ICRA, “As bank funds constitute a larger share in the overall funding of NBFCs, a slower credit flow from banks to the NBFCs will compress their AUM growth. The NBFCs in unsecured and digital lending businesses shall face a higher squeeze in funding compared to others, and the unsecured lending space will continue to be a source of stress in the near term.” There has been uninhibited growth in unsecured loans, apart from just the microfinance segment. For instance, Axis Bank’s gross slippages jumped by Rs 4,443 crore, largely thanks to its unsecured business. The same is the case with Yes Bank, which saw 35–40% of its retail slippages emerging from the unsecured loan portfolio. Kotak Mahindra Bank was also quick to follow Yes Bank’s suit, with around 35%-40% of its slippages coming from credit cards. <h2>How is the road ahead?</h2>While RBI has just cracked its whip and served a warning at the moment, experts at Morgan Stanley believe that more changes (read regulatory lashes) are underway. Moreover, with both festive and wedding seasons underway in our country, unsecured lending might pick up momentum, much to the disdain of the calibrated approach banks have been taking towards it so far. But if the situation doesn't improve, RBI will not waste any time in becoming the typical tyrannical Bollywood headmaster who runs his dominion with an iron fist and takes things (and ceiling rates) into their own hands. However, that's a story for another day.

Is the lending party over? The dangerous tango of Indian banks with microfinance and unsecured loans

In early Wednesday trading, the Indian rupee slid 14 paise to hit an all-time low of 84.23 per US dollar, weighed down by continued outflows of foreign funds and a robust US dollar in global markets. Forex analysts highlighted the volatility stemming from the ongoing US elections, suggesting that stability could return once results are clear in this close race. The US Federal Reserve is also on the radar, with an anticipated interest rate cut this week and a projected easing of up to 100 basis points by 2025. At the interbank forex market, the rupee opened at its historic low of 84.23 against the dollar, down from its previous close of 84.09. On Tuesday, the currency had ended slightly stronger, gaining 2 paise. Meanwhile, the dollar index, which tracks the strength of the US dollar against six major currencies, climbed 1.64% to 105.11. According to Anil Kumar Bhansali, Head of Treasury at Finrex Treasury Advisors, the index rose following initial election results showing former President Trump ahead, with the Republican party also leading in both the Senate and the House of Representatives. The global oil market saw movement as Brent crude prices dipped 0.98%, trading at USD 74.79 per barrel. Bhansali noted that the rupee’s trajectory will heavily depend on the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) response, particularly as the currency fluctuates with real-time election outcomes. He estimated an intra-day trading range between 84.00 and 84.35. On the domestic front, Indian stock markets showed positive trends. The Sensex climbed by 390.93 points (0.49%) to reach 79,867.56, while the Nifty rose by 135.60 points (0.56%) to 24,348.90. Despite these gains, foreign institutional investors (FIIs) were net sellers on Tuesday, pulling out Rs 2,569.41 crore from the capital markets, as per stock exchange data. This withdrawal underscores the challenges facing the Indian currency amid global financial uncertainties. (with PTI inputs)

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Nifty, Sensex rallied around 1.5 % after Maharashtra election results, Experts noted short term rally

ANI

FPIs withdraw nearly Rs 20,000 crore from equities in the last 5 trading sessions, make a beeline for China and US

BI India Bureau

FII stake in Indian equities dips to a 12-year low

Ira Alok Puranik

Is the lending party over? The dangerous tango of Indian banks with microfinance and unsecured loans

Ira Alok Puranik

Rupee hits record low of 84.23 against US dollar amidst US elections 2024

BI India Bureau

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