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Indian banks are expected to have steady growth in earnings and returns over the next 3–4 years, according to a recent report by Jefferies. It expects a 13% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) in loan growth for banks between FY24 and FY27, helmed by a supportive environment and expected adjustments in interest rates. "We expect steady growth in earnings and stable returns, Over FY24-27, the banks we cover should see 13% CAGRin loans We factor 25-50 bps cut in rates, &amp; depending on timing, NIMs will move," the report said. Depending on the timing, these rate cuts could impact banks' <keyword id="20076541" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="net-interest-margins" source="keywords">net interest margins</keyword> (NIMs), which measure the difference between interest income generated and interest paid to depositors. The report also notes that banks' net interest income (NII), a critical metric that is reflective of how much a bank earns from its lending, could grow at a steady 12% CAGR, which would support overall earnings growth. <h2>Rate cuts probable next year</h2>Per SBI Mutual Fund's monthly outlook for November 2024, while markets were initially speculating possible rate reductions in December this year or February next year these chances now stand dampened due to two reasons. First, elevated CPI numbers in September, which stood at a nine-month high, underlined the stickiness of food inflation. Secondly, RBI governor Das recently highlighted his hawkish stance at a conference, stating that "rate cuts at this stage would be premature and risky’. The report further adds that February 2025, or even April, would be a better time to discuss repo rate cuts in India. Even <keyword id="19985925" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="bank-credit-growth" source="keywords">bank credit growth</keyword> has continued to outpace deposit growth for two years now. However, they seem to be inching closer in the recent past. For instance, in October 2024, while bank credit growth remained at 12.7%, the deposit growth rate followed closely at 11.8%. This also means that banks are witnessing an elevated bank credit-to-deposit ratio, standing at 77% in October. <h2>Risks in unsecured lending </h2>However, Jefferies noted some areas of caution that could influence growth in other revenue streams, particularly fees. Growth in fees may be at risk due to expected declines in the disbursal of unsecured loans, which generally carry higher interest rates and generate higher fees for banks. October saw stress and defaults rising in the unsecured lending space, prompting the RBI to intervene. As a result, unsecured loans by banks have only grown by 12.1%, the lowest since the pandemic. Despite these risks, the report expects banks' return on assets (ROA) and return on equity (ROE) to remain healthy, underscoring the sector's stable profitability potential. The report also highlights that while the Nifty Banks index has risen by 19% over the past year, it has still underperformed the broader Nifty index, which delivered 27% returns in the same period. BSE Bankex has been along similar lines, generating returns worth 19% over one year. While the Nifty banks' index has a YTD (yield to date) of 7.63%, it continues to trail Nifty's YTD of 11.30%

Indian banks to have steady growth in earning over next 3-4 years, fees from unsecured lending may dip, notes Jefferies report

Imagine this. You have a younger sibling you’re mighty envious of. And why not? Unlike you, they seem to enjoy all the freedom and money in the world. They party like there’s no tomorrow, and here you are, stuck in a boring, ultra-disciplined but responsible routine that feels completely devoid of any independence, and mostly, funds. But of late, things are changing. This sibling is in massive trouble and just cannot escape the parent’s wrath anymore. Long story short, the party is over, and it is time to go back home. The rising defaults on this sibling’s part have now begun pulling the entire house down, thereby attracting the regulator’s ire. <h2>The Wild West of microfinance and unsecured loans</h2>It's hard to ignore the issues with microfinance and unsecured loans in India. Many saw them as a small gamble and ignored the rising defaults much like the younger siblings’ tantrums, and now they find themselves in hot waters. The skyrocketing instances of non-payments aren't a micro-issue anymore and are threatening the stability of the entire banking system. In the quarter ended September 30, 2024, 5 of India’s 8 largest private sector <keyword id="19934118" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="banks" source="keywords">banks</keyword> reported a steep rise in their bad loan book, mostly thanks to microfinance loans. Some banks, in a bid to strengthen their fortress against these <keyword id="142154" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="bad-loans" source="Orion">bad loans</keyword>, have significantly upped their provisions. For instance, <keyword id="46717" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="IndusInd-bank" source="Orion">IndusInd Bank</keyword> set aside Rs 525 crore during July and September 2024 to battle the menace of defaults on microfinance loans, which make up about 9% of its total loan book. See, banks rely heavily on their interest income, which they earn from advancing loans. Any loan where the borrower has not paid interest to the bank or defaulted for 90 days or more becomes bad, i.e., an <keyword id="79363" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="npa" source="Orion">NPA</keyword>, or non-performing asset for the bank. And who likes things going bad? Simply put, there has been a steep rise in three areas, much to the dislike of banks and MFIs (micro-finance institutions). But hey, it's mostly their doing! <ol><li>GNPA ratio (gross net performing assets): The quantum of non-performing assets a bank has in proportion to its total assets.</li><li>Provision: The amount banks set aside to take care of such NPAs.</li><li>Slippage ratio: The rate at which good girls go bad, or the speed at which good loans turn into NPAs</li></ol>But how are these plaguing the Indian banking sector? And what does the road ahead look like? We decode it for you. <h2> Microfinance: A not-so-micro-menace</h2>Microfinance loans were initially brought forth for low-income households and individuals, i.e. for those who might not generally have access to traditional ways of credit, like bank loans and more. They don’t require collateral or an asset to be pledged in lieu of the loan, making it a tad bit easier for borrowers. As of June 2024, the amount of outstanding loans in the microfinance industry stood at a staggering Rs 4,20,256 crore. Of this, NBFC-MFIs accounted for 40% and banks made for 33% of these. In 2022, <keyword id="30067" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="RBI" source="Orion">RBI</keyword>, in a bid to inspire some competition in this space, did something radical-they did away with the ceiling on how much interest MFIs could charge their customers. Previously, MFIs could add up to 12% to their cost of acquiring funds to determine the final interest rate chargeable to the consumer. So, assuming that Bank A incurs a 5% cost to acquire funds for further loaning, A could charge up to 17% interest from the end consumer. So, interest rates were in the hands of MFIs, and boy, did they have a gala time with it. Instead of spurring some healthy competition, as RBI expected, MFIs and banks went rogue and all guns blazing, competing for the title of “Who will charge the highest interest?” Recently, RBI banned 4 microfinance institutions (MFIs), namely Asirvad Micro Finance Limited, Arohan Financial Services Limited, DMI Finance Private Limited, and Navi Finserv, from disbursing loans effective October 21, 2024. Why? Because they were charging 14% extra interest over their original cost of funds. To maintain their loan books (and pockets), banks and NBFCs resorted to shady practices like netting off loans, which RBI has now advised MFIs against. Here, lenders allow borrowers to settle a previous outstanding loan by issuing them a new loan! As crazy as it sounds, it helped banks to report less of their total assets as NPAs, since the new credit would cover pending installments of the borrower’s previous loan. Then there was the issue of borrowers overleveraging, i.e. taking multiple loans using different IDs from various lenders and then failing to honor any of them. The consequence? Banks and NBFCs end up with massive NPAs. Data from credit bureaus suggests that over the last quarter, there was a 17.2% rise in the number of borrowers who had 5 or more active loans at the same time. <h2>Growth &gt; Caution</h2>It's an age-old tale unfolding yet again in India’s banking sector- Icarus flew too close to the sun and eventually, fell to its death. Between April and June 2024, NBFCs microfinance portfolio jumped by 2.7%. If you see this in terms of loan sources, microfinance loans issued by banks grew by 11.2% in Q1FY25. But the same portfolio in NBFCs swelled by almost double-23.9%. While most of these loans had an average ticket size between Rs 30,000-50,000, there was a sharp spike in the number of loans that had a ticket size of Rs 80,000 or more. Data suggests that as of March 2024, more than 12% of all microfinance borrowers had over 4 or more active loans. In dating parlance, this is a classic case of borrowers going polyamorous, minus the honesty and transparency. Not the best of situations, you'd agree! <h2>Will banks and NBFCs stand up to this stress?</h2>If their results for Q2FY25 are to be believed, NBFCs are not handling the pressure all that well. Or even slightly well. Only a few banks like Bank of Baroda (BoB), ICICI, and Indian Bank were up for the battle, even witnessing a decline in their loan delinquencies. Some others, like IndusInd Bank, saw their stock dip by a massive 16.2% over the last 5 days. Its slippages in the previous quarter burgeoned from Rs 15.3 billion in Q1FY25 to Rs 17.9 billion in Q2. As a result, the bank pushed a staggeringly high amount of money to create an NPA cushion for itself. While its management has highlighted its preference for secured lending, that was hardly reflected in its actions during the quarter, where growth in unsecured personal loans remained exceptionally high at over 7% on a QoQ basis. Turns out, only 44% of customers in IndusInd Banks’ microfinance loan portfolio were exclusive to it. The rest 47% were, you guessed it right-polyamorous! 27% had borrowed from another lender as well, apart from IndusInd Bank, while 20% were those who had outstanding loans with two other lenders, apart from IndusInd Bank. IndusInd Bank’s credit card segment did not miss the NPA bus and accounted for 7-8% of its GNPAs. Canara Bank’s total slippages during the previous quarter jumped to Rs 11.1 billion, up by 24.7% QoQ, and making up for 3.6% of its total loans. As for Bandhan Bank, its <keyword id="763994" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Gross-NPA" source="Orion">gross NPA</keyword> for Q2FY25 inched up on a QoQ basis, up from 4.23% in Q1, to 4.68% in the second quarter. <keyword id="62152" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="IDFC-bank" source="Orion">IDFC Bank</keyword>’s heavy provisioning for its NPAs marred its profits significantly, causing its PAT (profit after tax) to dip by 73% on a YoY basis. Data from ICRA Analytics suggest that the AUM (asset under management) growth in microfinance loans and unsecured (personal and business) loans by the NBFCs will moderate to 10-12% and 19-21%, respectively, in FY2025 compared to 30% and 38%, in FY2024. Says A M Karthik, Senior Vice President &amp; Co-Group Head, Financial Sector Ratings, ICRA, “As bank funds constitute a larger share in the overall funding of NBFCs, a slower credit flow from banks to the NBFCs will compress their AUM growth. The NBFCs in unsecured and digital lending businesses shall face a higher squeeze in funding compared to others, and the unsecured lending space will continue to be a source of stress in the near term.” There has been uninhibited growth in unsecured loans, apart from just the microfinance segment. For instance, Axis Bank’s gross slippages jumped by Rs 4,443 crore, largely thanks to its unsecured business. The same is the case with Yes Bank, which saw 35–40% of its retail slippages emerging from the unsecured loan portfolio. Kotak Mahindra Bank was also quick to follow Yes Bank’s suit, with around 35%-40% of its slippages coming from credit cards. <h2>How is the road ahead?</h2>While RBI has just cracked its whip and served a warning at the moment, experts at Morgan Stanley believe that more changes (read regulatory lashes) are underway. Moreover, with both festive and wedding seasons underway in our country, unsecured lending might pick up momentum, much to the disdain of the calibrated approach banks have been taking towards it so far. But if the situation doesn't improve, RBI will not waste any time in becoming the typical tyrannical Bollywood headmaster who runs his dominion with an iron fist and takes things (and ceiling rates) into their own hands. However, that's a story for another day.

Is the lending party over? The dangerous tango of Indian banks with microfinance and unsecured loans

<div type="image" title="The RBI has cracked the regulatory whip on NBFCs and banks, who&amp;#39;ve been pushing microfinance and unsecured loans aggressively to grow their loan books." agency="ANI" msid="114778648" hostid="261" caption="&amp;lt;p&amp;gt;The RBI has cracked the regulatory whip on NBFCs and banks, who&amp;#39;ve been pushing microfinance and unsecured loans aggressively to grow their loan books.&amp;lt;/p&amp;gt;"></div> Imagine this. You have a younger sibling you’re mighty envious of. And why not? Unlike you, they seem to enjoy all the freedom and money in the world. They party like there’s no tomorrow, and here you are, stuck in a boring, ultra-disciplined but responsible routine that feels completely devoid of any independence, and mostly, funds. But of late, things are changing. This sibling is in massive trouble and just cannot escape the parent’s wrath anymore. Long story short, the party is over, and it is time to go back home. The rising defaults on this sibling’s part have now begun pulling the entire house down, thereby attracting the regulator’s ire. <h2>The Wild West of <keyword id="113684" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="microfinance" source="Orion">microfinance</keyword> and unsecured loans</h2>It's hard to ignore the issues with microfinance and unsecured loans in India. Many saw them as a small gamble and ignored the rising defaults much like the younger siblings’ tantrums, and now they find themselves in hot waters. The skyrocketing instances of non-payments aren't a micro-issue anymore and are threatening the stability of the entire banking system. In the quarter ended September 30, 2024, 5 of India’s 8 largest private sector <keyword id="19934118" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="banks" source="keywords">banks</keyword> reported a steep rise in their bad loan book, mostly thanks to microfinance loans. Some banks, in a bid to strengthen their fortress against these <keyword id="142154" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="bad-loans" source="Orion">bad loans</keyword>, have significantly upped their provisions. For instance, IndusInd Bank set aside Rs 525 crore during July and September 2024 to battle the menace of defaults on microfinance loans, which make up about 9% of its total loan book. See, banks rely heavily on their interest income, which they earn from advancing loans. Any loan where the borrower has not paid interest to the bank or defaulted for 90 days or more becomes bad, i.e. an NPA, or non-performing asset for the bank. And who likes things going bad? Simply put, there has been a steep rise in three areas, much to the dislike of banks and MFIs (micro-finance institutions). But hey, it's mostly their doing! <ol><li>GNPA ratio (gross net performing assets): The quantum of non-performing assets a bank has in proportion to its total assets.</li><li>Provision: The amount banks set aside to take care of such NPAs.</li><li>Slippage ratio: The rate at which good girls go bad, or the speed at which good loans turn into NPAs</li></ol>But how are these plaguing the Indian banking sector? And what does the road ahead look like? We decode it for you. <h2> Microfinance: A not-so-micro-menace</h2>Microfinance loans were initially brought forth for low-income households and individuals i.e. for those who might not generally have access to traditional ways of credit, like bank loans and more. They don’t require collateral or an asset to be pledged in lieu of the loan, making it a tad bit easier for borrowers. As of June 2024, the amount of outstanding loans in the microfinance industry stood at a staggering Rs 4,20,256 crore. Of this, NBFC-MFIs accounted for 40% and banks made for 33% of these. In 2022, RBI, in a bid to inspire some competition in this space, did something radical-they did away with the ceiling on how much interest MFIs could charge their customers. Previously, MFIs could add up to 12% to their cost of acquiring funds to determine the final interest rate chargeable to the consumer. So, assuming that Bank A incurs a 5% cost to acquire funds for further loaning, A could charge up to 17% interest from the end consumer. So, interest rates were in the hands of MFIs, and boy, did they have a gala time with it. Instead of spurring some healthy competition, as RBI expected, MFIs and banks went rogue and all guns blazing, competing for the title of “Who will charge the highest interest?” Recently, RBI banned 4 microfinance institutions (MFIs), namely Asirvad Micro Finance Limited, Arohan Financial Services Limited, DMI Finance Private Limited, and <keyword id="20117932" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="navi-finserv" source="keywords">Navi Finserv</keyword> from disbursing loans effective October 21, 2024. Why? Because they were charging 14% extra interest over their original cost of funds. To maintain their loan books (and pockets), banks and NBFCs resorted to shady practices like netting off loans, which RBI has now advised MFIs against. Here, lenders allow borrowers to settle a previous outstanding loan by issuing them a new loan! As crazy as it sounds, it helped banks to report less of their total assets as NPAs, since the new credit would cover pending instalments of the borrower’s previous loan. Then there was the issue of borrowers overleveraging, i.e. taking multiple loans using different IDs from various lenders and then failing to honour any of them. The consequence? Banks and NBFCs end up with massive NPAs. Data from credit bureaus suggests that over the last quarter, there was a 17.2% rise in the number of borrowers who had 5 or more active loans at the same time. <h2>Growth &gt; Caution</h2>It's an age-old tale unfolding yet again in India’s banking sector- Icarus flew too close to the sun and eventually, fell to its death. Between April and June 2024, NBFCs microfinance portfolio jumped by 2.7%. If you see this in terms of loan sources, microfinance loans issued by banks grew by 11.2% in Q1FY25. But the same portfolio in NBFCs swelled by almost double-23.9%. While most of these loans had an average ticket size between Rs 30,000-50,000, there was a sharp spike in the number of loans that had a ticket size of Rs 80,000 or more. Data suggests that as of March 2024, more than 12% of all microfinance borrowers had over 4 or more active loans. In dating parlance, this is a classic case of borrowers going polyamorous, minus the honesty and transparency. Not the best of situations, you'd agree! <h2>Will banks and NBFCs stand up to this stress?</h2>If their results for Q2FY25 are to be believed, NBFCs are not handling the pressure all that well. Or even slightly well. Only a few banks like Bank of Baroda (BoB), ICICI, and Indian Bank were up for the battle, even witnessing a decline in their loan delinquencies. Some others, like IndusInd Bank, saw their stock dip by a massive 16.2% over the last 5 days. Its slippages in the previous quarter burgeoned from Rs 15.3 billion in Q1FY25 to Rs 17.9 billion in Q2. As a result, the bank pushed a staggeringly high amount of money to create an NPA cushion for itself. While its management has highlighted its preference for secured lending, that was hardly reflected in its actions during the quarter, where growth in unsecured personal loans remained exceptionally high at over 7% on a QoQ basis. Turns out, only 44% of customers in IndusInd Banks’ microfinance loan portfolio were exclusive to it. The rest 47% were, you guessed it right-polyamorous! 27% had borrowed from another lender as well, apart from IndusInd Bank, while 20% were those who had outstanding loans with two other lenders, apart from IndusInd Bank. IndusInd Bank’s credit card segment did not miss the NPA bus and accounted for 7-8% of its GNPAs. Canara Bank’s total slippages during the previous quarter jumped to Rs 11.1 billion, up by 24.7% QoQ, and making up for 3.6% of its total loans. As for Bandhan Bank, its gross NPA for Q2FY25 inched up on a QoQ basis, up from 4.23% in Q1, to 4.68% in the second quarter. IDFC Bank’s heavy provisioning for its NPAs marred its profits significantly, causing its PAT (profit after tax) to dip by 73% on a YoY basis. Data from ICRA Analytics suggest that the AUM (asset under management) growth in microfinance loans and unsecured (personal and business) loans by the NBFCs will moderate to 10-12% and 19-21%, respectively, in FY2025 compared to 30% and 38%, in FY2024. Says A M Karthik, Senior Vice President &amp; Co-Group Head, Financial Sector Ratings, ICRA, “As bank funds constitute a larger share in the overall funding of NBFCs, a slower credit flow from banks to the NBFCs will compress their AUM growth. The NBFCs in unsecured and digital lending businesses shall face a higher squeeze in funding compared to others, and the unsecured lending space will continue to be a source of stress in the near term.” There has been uninhibited growth in <keyword id="6051027" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Unsecured-loan" source="Orion">unsecured loan</keyword>s, apart from just the microfinance segment. For instance, Axis Bank’s gross slippages jumped by Rs 4,443 crore, largely thanks to its unsecured business. The same is the case with Yes Bank, which saw 35–40% of its retail slippages emerging from the unsecured loan portfolio. <keyword id="6376194" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="kotak-mahindra" source="Orion">Kotak Mahindra</keyword> Bank was also quick to follow Yes Bank’s suit, with around 35%-40% of its slippages coming from credit cards. <h2>How is the road ahead?</h2>While RBI has just cracked its whip and served a warning at the moment, experts at Morgan Stanley believe that more changes (read regulatory lashes) are underway. Moreover, with both festive and wedding seasons underway in our country, unsecured lending might pick up momentum, much to the disdain of the calibrated approach banks have been taking towards it so far. But if the situation doesn't improve, RBI will not waste any time in becoming the typical tyrannical <keyword id="19897820" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="bollywood" source="keywords">Bollywood</keyword> headmaster who runs his dominion with an iron fist. However, that's a story for another day. Do you have a topic in mind you'd want a simpler explanation for, or insights or personal experience to share on personal finance and more? Contact us at businessinsider@timesinternet.in.

Simply Put: Is the lending party over? The dangerous tango of Indian banks with microfinance and unsecured loans

Dear readers, As we approach yet another weekend, here are some key developments across various sectors. Nvidia has surpassed Apple to become the world’s largest company, driven by the AI boom. Meanwhile, the US Federal Reserve cut interest rates, by 25 basis points to 4.75%, the second such reduction in 2024. In the workplace, Gen Z’s approach to mental health got attention, with one employee taking a week off after a breakup. Additionally, Indian banks are expecting steady growth, despite challenges in unsecured lending. Read on for all the details! <h2>Top stories from the week </h2> Indian banks to have steady growth in earnings over next 3-4 years, fees from unsecured lending may dip, notes Jefferies report Jefferies forecasts steady earnings growth for Indian banks over the next 3–4 years, with a 13% annual loan growth rate. However, a decline in unsecured lending could reduce fee income. While net interest income is expected to grow at 12%, challenges such as rising defaults and a potential dip in rate cuts could affect profitability. Despite this, banks’ return on equity and assets remain promising. <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/finance/news/indian-banks-to-have-steady-growth-in-earning-over-next-3-4-years-fees-from-unsecured-lending-may-dip-notes-jefferies-report/articleshow/115048179.cms" data-type="tilCustomLink" target="_blank">Read more</a> Nvidia becomes world’s largest company amid AI boom, surpasses Apple in the race Nvidia has surpassed Apple to become the world’s largest company by market capitalization, driven by the AI boom. The company’s strong performance is fueled by surging demand for its chips used in AI technologies. With a market cap hitting $3.43 trillion, Nvidia continues to dominate the AI hardware sector, powering data centres and AI research. The company’s revenue growth of 122% YoY further cements its leadership in the AI space. <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/business/news/nvidia-becomes-worlds-largest-company-amid-ai-boom-surpasses-apple-in-the-race/articleshow/115003223.cms" data-type="tilCustomLink" target="_blank">Read more</a> ‘He had a breakup and took a one-week leave’: Manager shares about his Gen-Z employee, internet reacts A manager’s tweet about granting a Gen Z employee a week off for a breakup sparked widespread debate. While the manager expressed frustration over project delays, internet users defended the employee’s mental health needs, criticizing the manager’s lack of empathy. Some supported the manager’s view, pointing out generational differences in work culture. The incident went viral, furthering discussions about Gen Z’s unique workplace expectations. <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/careers/news/he-had-a-breakup-and-took-a-one-week-leave-manager-shares-about-his-gen-z-employee-internet-reacts/articleshow/115041747.cms" data-type="tilCustomLink" target="_blank">Read more</a> US Fed cuts interest rates by 25 bps, Powell notes Trump’s victory to have no impact on policy decisions The US Federal Reserve has cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 4.75%, the second such reduction in 2024. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell emphasized the Fed’s independence despite Trump’s criticism and suggested that the economic outlook remains uncertain, though the Fed is focused on inflation targets. Trump’s policies may lead to higher inflation, adding complexity to the Fed’s efforts to stabilize prices. Experts anticipate that bond yields will stabilize, benefiting emerging markets like India. <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/finance/news/us-fed-cuts-interest-rates-by-25-bps-powell-notes-trumps-victory-to-have-no-impact-on-policy-decisions/articleshow/115070690.cms" data-type="tilCustomLink" target="_blank">Read more</a> Big Tech’s winners and losers from Donald Trump’s win, according to the market After Donald Trump’s election victory, tech stocks surged, with companies like Tesla seeing significant gains. Tesla’s rise was fueled by Trump’s public support for CEO Elon Musk. Conversely, companies like Apple faced challenges due to fears over potential tariffs on China. While some, like Google, might benefit from lighter regulations, others like Meta could face political challenges. Overall, the election results reshaped market expectations for Big Tech’s future. <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/tech/news/here-are-big-techs-winners-and-losers-from-donald-trumps-win-according-to-the-market/articleshow/115067798.cms" data-type="tilCustomLink" target="_blank">Read more</a> <h2>Top web stories</h2> <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/entertainment/webstories/donald-trump-on-screen-a-look-at-his-iconic-cameos/slidelist/115045250.cms" data-type="tilCustomLink" target="_blank">Donald Trump on screen: A look at his iconic cameos</a> <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/india/webstories/8-lifestyle-mistakes-contributing-to-health-problems-in-india/slidelist/115051791.cms" data-type="tilCustomLink" target="_blank">8 lifestyle mistakes contributing to health problems in India</a> <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/travel/india/webstories/10-magical-indian-experiences-every-traveller-should-try/slidelist/115052527.cms" data-type="tilCustomLink" target="_blank">10 magical Indian experiences every traveller should try</a>

Weekend wrap: Nvidia’s AI-driven surge, Indian banks’ steady growth and more

<div type="image" title="Are Indians depositing less money in banks, or more in mutual funds? Turns out, it&amp;#39;s neither of those." msid="113663806" hostid="261" sizebytes="1121785"></div> Over the past few months, there’s been a lot of brouhaha about the lagging pace of <keyword id="20202062" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="bank-deposits" source="keywords">bank deposits</keyword> in India. Simply put, the rate at which Indians are depositing their hard-earned money in banks has been falling constantly, and some blame the increasing financialisation of <keyword id="20751315" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="household-savings" source="keywords">household savings</keyword> in the country or the rising preference of Indians towards <keyword id="19929240" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="mutual-funds" source="keywords">mutual funds</keyword> and shares. So, the hypothesis is that people are choosing to invest more in mutual funds and the Indian <keyword id="19949641" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="equity-markets" source="keywords">equity markets</keyword> through direct investments, IPOs, or NFOs, the money flowing into Indian banks in the form of deposits is slowing down. But is that really the case? <h2>A crisis or a phase?</h2><keyword id="19899808" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="RBI" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="RBI" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="RBI">RBI</keyword> data suggested that for the quarter ended June 2024, bank deposits grew at 11.7%. On the other hand, credit growth has outpaced this at 15%. This means that the outflow from banks as loans is far greater than the inflow into them in the form of deposits in Q1 of FY 2024-25. The situation largely saw cut-copy-paste in the first week of September as well, with loans registering a 13.3% YoY growth during the period, while deposits rose only 11.1%. This gap has only been widening for the last 3 years. Since deposits are how banks gather assets to further lend and earn interest income as a consequence, even a slight dip could set the alarm bells ringing for banks, and rightfully so. And truth be told, mutual funds are indeed taking on bank deposits in a big way. Per a report by Franklin Templeton, in August 2024, the AUM (assets under management) of Indian mutual funds, or the total funds managed by them, stood at 31.3% of total bank deposits in the country, up from 24.20% during the year-ago period. As of August 2024, the AUM of mutual funds stood at Rs 66.17 lakh crore, an all-time high. But all said and done, is this really the reason why the rate of bank deposits is falling behind? SBI has dismissed this to be a “statistical myth”, and experts point out that since equity and fund houses also keep the cash in their respective bank accounts, there’s no cause for concern. So, is financialization really to be blamed for the trailing tempo of deposits? Or is something else happening behind the scenes? We take a closer look: <h2>First, are household deposits really slowing down? And is that a cause of concern?</h2>Data from Motilal Oswal suggests the contrary. Deposits grew by around 10.4% between March 2020 and August 2024. Data from RBI also highlights that as of August 9, 2024, bank deposits witnessed a YoY growth of 10.8%. The loan-to-deposit ratio for the retail segment, which indicates what percentage of its total deposits the banks lend out as loans, has stayed at 77.5%, above the 77% mark for the tenth straight month. <div type="image" title="Yes, household deposits (as % of total deposits) have dipped, but the drop is far from significant" msid="113663882" hostid="261" sizebytes="306706"></div> Also, we can’t forego the fact that the share of Indian households in bank deposits has indeed slowed down. However, data from Axis AMC shows that the dip is marginal—from 63% in 2022 to 62% in 2023 and 61% in 2024. What has slowed down even more considerably is the share of government deposits in the aggregate bank deposits, which has dipped from 14% in 2018 to 9% in 2024. So, it's not just household deposits, you see. Moreover, as of March 2024, the collective CASA ratio (current and <keyword id="114757" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="savings-account" source="Orion">savings account</keyword> deposits) of all commercial banks in India stood at 41.00%, down from 43.1% in March 2023 and 45.2% in March 2022, marking a nearly 5% point decline over the past year, while still staying over the 10-year average of 39.2%. This implies that Indian banks are relying more on higher-cost funds (savings accounts), which can limit their profitability. <h2>What is this financialisation of savings we are talking about?</h2>Then again, there is no doubt about the growing affinity of Indians towards mutual funds and stock markets. Recent data from CBDT (Central Board of Direct Taxes) highlights that India’s net direct tax collection surged by around 22%, driven exclusively by the significant uptick in the collection of Securities Transaction Tax (STT), which doubled to Rs 26,154 crore, from Rs 13,352 crore in the year-ago period. Why does this matter? STT is levied when you buy or sell equity shares on stock exchanges, sell <keyword id="6361918" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="equity-mutual-funds" source="Orion">equity mutual funds</keyword>, and trade in futures and options in the equity segment. Such taxes, including the multiple other taxes in equity market investments, are considered as leakages as the money moves out of the economy into government coffers. Data from a ValueQuest report explains that over the last 20 years, the markets have handsomely rewarded the investors, generating over $900 billion in incremental value for them. This is the major driver behind the dramatic rise in investment flowing towards the equity markets. There’s further proof of this budding romance, if you check the demat pudding. The number of demat accounts, which are a primary requisite for participating in the stock markets, also burgeoned by 42.3 lakh in August 2024, taking India’s total tally of demat accounts beyond 17 crore. To put this in perspective, this is almost equivalent to the population of just 8 nations in the world, including China, the US, Brazil and more. Vivek Iyer, Partner, Grant Thornton Bharat thinks it's rather important, as well. “Financialisation of household savings in India is an indication of deepening capital markets in the market, especially from a retail investor standpoint. Bank deposits with a modest rate of return are no longer the only option for savings for investors. Investors today have more avenues for wealth creation in the form of public capital markets, which have democratized wealth creation and provided equality of opportunity to retail investors”, he says. Yes, Indians are investing more and more in the markets, and in mutual funds. But is it a sin to look out for inflation-beating returns, which the stock markets offer, and vanilla bank deposits don't? After all, the allure of 12-13% annual returns offered by <keyword id="45369" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="equities" source="Orion">equities</keyword> can certainly pale the stability offered by good old deposits, which generally do not go beyond 9% when it comes to annual returns. But all of this is not what is behind the slowdown. India is still a toddler in the school of savings financialization, with less than 10% of the population holding a demat account, and less than 5% of us saving in equities. That's a drop in the ocean of deposits, far inadequate to trigger a tsunami. <h2>Tell me why lagging deposits have nothing to do with Indians investing more in mutual funds!</h2>Says Shweta Rajani, Head - Mutual Funds, Anand Rathi Wealth Limited, “Households' equity holdings composition grew from 11.1% in FY 23 to 14.7% in FY 24. This trend reflects a growing awareness of investment options, empowering individuals to take control of their financial futures. Despite this transition towards equities, banks still hold a significant share of household financial savings—33.5% in FY24 compared to 34.9% in FY23”. Also, household savings and their subsequent financialization do not have much to do with deposit creation, which is entirely made by banks. What actually drives increased deposits is credit growth or increased lending. When interest rates are eased, people tend to borrow more and spend more, which circulates more money in the economy. For the past 4 years, RBI has been tightening the screws on interest rates, which raises the cost of borrowings, and makes it more expensive to take loans, putting a dampener on credit growth, but effectively curbing inflationary pressures. The last time RBI cut the repo rate by 40 basis points was back in May 2020, 4 years ago. The lag in <keyword id="19998084" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="deposit-growth" source="keywords">deposit growth</keyword> we’re witnessing is almost 3 years old. Coincidence much, or just good old economics at work? But with the Fed recently setting a rate cut precedent by slashing 50 bps off its interest rate, RBI is expected to follow suit in the next MPC (Monetary Policy Committee) meeting, scheduled for November 2024. A rate cut would ease the aforementioned high cost of borrowing, and increase loan-taking for corporates and institutional investors, thereby stoking consumption in the economy. And then, deposit creation in banks is likely to return to its former glory. If not, then that would be a curious case to unravel! But that worry is for another day. Do you have insights or personal experience to share on your personal finances or money? Contact us at <a target="_blank" class="c-link" href="mailto:businessinsider@timesinternet.in">businessinsider@timesinternet.in</a>.

Simply Put: A Deposit Dilemma — What's the fuss about a crisis in Indian bank deposits? Are mutual fund investments to blame?

Over the past few months, there’s been a lot of brouhaha about the lagging pace of bank deposits in India. Simply put, the rate at which Indians are depositing their hard-earned money in banks has been falling constantly, and some blame the increasing financialization of household savings in the country, or the rising preference of Indians towards mutual funds and shares. So, the hypothesis is that people are choosing to invest more in mutual funds and the Indian equity markets through direct investments, IPOs, or NFOs, the money flowing into Indian banks in the form of deposits is slowing down. But is that really the case? <h2>A crisis or a phase?</h2><keyword id="19899808" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="rbi" source="keywords">RBI</keyword> data suggested that for the quarter ended June 2024, bank deposits grew at 11.7%. On the other hand, credit growth has outpaced this at 15%. This means that the outflow from banks as loans is far greater than the inflow into them in the form of deposits in Q1 of FY 2024-25. The situation largely saw cut-copy-paste in the first week of September as well, with loans registering a 13.3% YoY growth during the period, while deposits rose only 11.1%. This gap has only been widening for the last 3 years. Since deposits are how banks gather assets to further lend and earn interest income as a consequence, even a slight dip could set the alarm bells ringing for banks, and rightfully so. And truth be told, mutual funds are indeed taking on bank deposits in a big way. Per a report by <keyword id="20250971" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="franklin-templeton" source="keywords">Franklin Templeton</keyword>, in August 2024, the AUM (assets under management) of Indian mutual funds, or the total funds managed by them, stood at 31.3% of total bank deposits in the country, up from 24.20% during the year-ago period. As of August 2024, the AUM of mutual funds stood at Rs 66.17 lakh crore, an all-time high. But all said and done, is this really the reason why the rate of bank deposits is falling behind? SBI has dismissed this to be a “statistical myth”, and experts point out that since equity and fund houses also keep the cash in their respective bank accounts, there’s no cause for concern. So, is financialization really to be blamed for the trailing tempo of deposits? Or is something else happening behind the scenes? We take a closer look: <h2>First, are <keyword id="4000333" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="household-deposits" source="Orion">household deposits</keyword> really slowing down? And is that a cause of concern?</h2>Data from Motilal Oswal suggests the contrary. Deposits grew by around 10.4% between March 2020 and August 2024. Data from RBI also highlights that as of August 9, 2024, bank deposits witnessed a YoY growth of 10.8%. The loan-to-deposit ratio for the retail segment, which indicates what percentage of its total deposits the banks lend out as loans, has stayed at 77.5%, above the 77% mark for the tenth straight month. Also, we can’t forego the fact that the share of Indian <keyword id="20319599" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="households" source="keywords">households</keyword> in bank deposits has indeed slowed down. However, data from Axis AMC shows that the dip is marginal—from 63% in 2022 to 62% in 2023 and 61% in 2024. What has slowed down even more considerably is the share of government deposits in the aggregate bank deposits, which has dipped from 14% in 2018 to 9% in 2024. So, it's not just household deposits, you see. Moreover, as of March 2024, the collective CASA ratio (current and savings account deposits) of all commercial banks in India stood at 41.00%, down from 43.1% in March 2023 and 45.2% in March 2022, marking a nearly 5% point decline over the past year, while still staying over the 10-year average of 39.2%. This implies that Indian banks are relying more on higher-cost funds (savings accounts), which can limit their profitability. <h2>What is this financialisation of savings we are talking about?</h2>Then again, there is no doubt about the growing affinity of Indians towards mutual funds and stock markets. Recent data from CBDT (<keyword id="19942037" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="central-board-of-direct-taxes" source="keywords">Central Board of Direct Taxes</keyword>) highlights that India’s net direct tax collection surged by around 22%, driven exclusively by the significant uptick in the collection of <keyword id="20930760" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="securities-transaction-tax" source="keywords">Securities Transaction Tax</keyword> (STT), which doubled to Rs 26,154 crore, from Rs 13,352 crore in the year-ago period. Why does this matter? STT is levied when you buy or sell equity shares on stock exchanges, sell equity mutual funds, and trade in futures and options in the equity segment. Such taxes, including the multiple other taxes in equity market investments, are considered as leakages as the money moves out of the economy into government coffers. Data from a ValueQuest report explains that over the last 20 years, the markets have handsomely rewarded the investors, generating over $900 billion in incremental value for them. This is the major driver behind the dramatic rise in investment flowing towards the equity markets. There’s further proof of this budding romance, if you check the demat pudding. The number of demat accounts, which are a primary requisite for participating in the stock markets, also burgeoned by 42.3 lakh in August 2024, taking India’s total tally of demat accounts beyond 17 crore. To put this in perspective, this is almost equivalent to the population of just 8 nations in the world, including China, the US, Brazil and more. Vivek Iyer, Partner, Grant Thornton Bharat thinks it's rather important, as well. “Financialisation of household savings in India is an indication of deepening capital markets in the market, especially from a retail investor standpoint. Bank deposits with a modest rate of return are no longer the only option for savings for investors. Investors today have more avenues for wealth creation in the form of public capital markets, which have democratized wealth creation and provided equality of opportunity to retail investors”, he says. Yes, Indians are investing more and more in the markets, and in mutual funds. But is it a sin to look out for inflation-beating returns, which the stock markets offer, and vanilla bank deposits don't? After all, the allure of 12-13% annual returns offered by equities can certainly pale the stability offered by good old deposits, which generally do not go beyond 9% when it comes to annual returns. But all of this is not what is behind the slowdown. India is still a toddler in the school of savings financialization, with less than 10% of the population holding a demat account, and less than 5% of us saving in equities. That's a drop in the ocean of deposits, far inadequate to trigger a tsunami. <h2>Tell me why lagging deposits have nothing to do with Indians investing more in mutual funds!</h2>Says Shweta Rajani, Head - Mutual Funds, Anand Rathi Wealth Limited, “Households' equity holdings composition grew from 11.1% in FY 23 to 14.7% in FY 24. This trend reflects a growing awareness of investment options, empowering individuals to take control of their financial futures. Despite this transition towards equities, banks still hold a significant share of household financial savings—33.5% in FY24 compared to 34.9% in FY23”. Also, household savings and their subsequent financialization do not have much to do with deposit creation, which is entirely made by banks. What actually drives increased deposits is credit growth or increased lending. When interest rates are eased, people tend to borrow more and spend more, which circulates more money in the economy. For the past 4 years, RBI has been tightening the screws on interest rates, which raises the cost of borrowings, and makes it more expensive to take loans, putting a dampener on credit growth, but effectively curbing inflationary pressures. The last time RBI cut the repo rate by 40 basis points was back in May 2020, 4 years ago. The lag in deposit growth we’re witnessing is almost 3 years old. Coincidence much, or just good old economics at work? But with the <keyword id="19900043" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="fed" source="keywords">Fed</keyword> recently setting a rate cut precedent by slashing 50 bps off its interest rate, RBI is expected to follow suit in the next <keyword id="19918491" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="mpc" source="keywords">MPC</keyword> (Monetary Policy Committee) meeting, scheduled for November 2024. A rate cut would ease the aforementioned high cost of borrowing, and increase loan-taking for corporates and institutional investors, thereby stoking consumption in the economy. And then, deposit creation in banks is likely to return to its former glory. If not, then that would be a curious case to unravel! But that worry is for another day.

A Deposit Dilemma — What's the fuss about a crisis in Indian bank deposits? Are mutual fund investments to blame?

Indian companies across multiple sectors have reported disappointing results in the second quarter of fiscal year 2025, notes a new JM Financials report. Consequently, their poor performance has triggered stock price corrections for affected companies. The brunt of this weaker than expected earnings was largely borne by consumer centric sectors like FMCG (fast moving consumer goods), retail, and auto, which slacked largely due to dampened urban demand. For instance, India's largest automaker, Maruti Suzuki, reported a 5% YoY decline in its total domestic passenger vehicle wholesales, largely on the back of pent-up inventory. Similarly, Honda reported a staggering 23% YoY dip in its total sales during October 2024. A recent report by Bernstein noted that around 48% of the companies listed on the NSE100 index missed their earnings estimate for Q2FY25, the highest since March 2020. Most companies have mentioned deteriorated domestic demand, urban slowing, macroeconomic risk, and margin pressures as the main reasons behind the dip. "The quarter's earnings have made investors nervous," noted the JM Financials report. The challenging environment stems from multiple factors: softening consumer demand, rising input costs, and companies' limited ability to increase prices. Moreover, this is not limited to just one quarter. Companies have been reporting weak, single-digit earnings growth for the last six consecutive quarters. Data from India Data Hub also suggests that corporate profits of listed companies plunged by as much as 3.4% during the quarter ended September 30, 2024. This is in stark contrast to the year-ago period, where they had shot up by over 40% The oil and gas sector had a difficult quarter, with refiners hit by weak margins and city gas distributors struggling with higher input costs. Financial institutions showed mixed results. While government-owned banks reported strong numbers, microfinance institutions and some private lenders faced massive difficulties with their unsecured loans. Most notable amongst this was the case of IndusInd Bank, which saw its net profits dip by 40% amidst burgeoning provisions, which climbed 87% to Rs 1,820 crore in Q2, as against Rs 974 crore reported in the year-ago period. <h2>Markets head southwards</h2>The selling trend by FPIs has dragged down the major Indian indices, the Nifty 50 and Sensex, both of which have dropped by around 8% since the beginning of this selling spree in October. According to National Securities Depository Ltd. (NSDL) data, FPIs offloaded equities worth a significant Rs 19,994 crore in just the first five trading sessions of November last week. The impact is clearly visible on Indian stock markets. Data suggests that while every sector in October closed the month in red, auto, oil and gas, and consumer durables were the most badly hit, each declining by as much as 10% during the month. Another indicator underlining the inherent weakness of the market was that the month saw only 242 stocks hit their 52-week high, significantly below the usual monthly average of 310.

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