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<keyword id="19895063" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="India" source="keywords">India</keyword>'s <keyword id="19938893" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="defence-exports" source="keywords">defence exports</keyword> have surged from Rs 15 billion in 2017 to Rs 210 billion in 2024, registering a CAGR of 46 per cent, highlighted a report on 'Defence Conference 3.0' by Antique Stock Broking. The report stated that the <keyword id="20861069" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="global-shift" source="keywords">global shift</keyword> towards a China+1 strategy and the impact of the <keyword id="20016971" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Russia-Ukraine-war" source="keywords">Russia-Ukraine war</keyword> offer India additional opportunities to fill supply chain gaps, potentially boosting its share in the <keyword id="23046732" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="global-defence-industry" source="keywords">global defence industry</keyword>. The report noted that the country's long-term goal is to become a global defence manufacturing hub is driven by Defence Public Sector Undertakings (DPSUs), private enterprises, start-ups, and MSMEs. "Indian defence exports have grown multi-fold from INR 15 bn in 2017 to INR 210 bn in 2024 at a CAGR of 46%. The China + 1 strategy and the Russia-Ukraine war provides an additional opportunity for India to fill the gap created in the supply chain and hence increase its contribution to the global defence industry," the report read. The report added that to achieve this target a well-developed domestic ecosystem is crucial as lower import content in products accelerates approvals by reducing international conflicts. The report added that the Ministry of Defence has taken key initiatives to attract Indian private players and global Original Equipment Manufacturers (OEMs) include establishing aerospace parks and defence corridors, fast-tracking project approvals, and enhancing development and testing facilities. Highlighting the potential in India's Maintenance, Repair, and Overhaul (MRO) segment the report explained that it holds a significant potential for global aerospace companies due to its technical expertise and cost-competitive solutions. "India provides a huge opportunity in the <keyword id="23046733" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="MRO-segment" source="keywords">MRO segment</keyword> for global aerospace leaders given the expertise the country provides as well as the cost efficiency solutions compared to its global competitors" the report added. India aims to increase domestic defence turnover to Rs 3 lac crore by 2029, Rs 500 billion targeted for exports. This growth will help reduce the Government of India's import bill as India remains the world's largest importer of defence equipment. Under the Atmanirbhar Bharat initiative of the government, 75 per cent of the defence capital outlay is now reserved for domestic players, up from 49 per cent in FY21. Given the geopolitical challenges and modernisation needs of its Armed Forces, the report added that India plans to invest Rs 8.3 lac crore in domestic procurement, offering substantial business opportunities for local companies. "India intends to place orders worth INR 8.3 trn through domestic procurement and thus it presents a massive business opportunity for local players" it added. As per the Ministry of Defence, India's defence manufacturing sector has witnessed an increase of 16.8 per cent in the fiscal year 2023-24. This significant increase marks the highest-ever growth in the country's defence production value. The total value of defence production reached Rs 1,26,887 crore this year, up from the previous year's figures.

India's defence exports surge to Rs 210 billion after global shift towards China+1, Russia-Ukraine war: Report

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Despite pressure from Western allies, India has refused to isolate Russia over the Ukraine war.</li><li>India's Narendra Modi this week spoke with both Ukraine's and Russia's leaders.</li></ul>When <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/narendra-modi-won-already-seeing-cost-him-allies-cabinet-funding-2024-6">Narendra Modi</a> visited Ukraine over the weekend, he greeted its president Volodymyr Zelenskyy with an exuberant bear hug.He did the same <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-economy-india-modi-putin-hug-west-isolation-big-blow-2024-7">to Vladimir Putin</a> only weeks ago when he traveled to Moscow to meet the Russian president, much to the anger of Zelenskyy."It is a huge disappointment and a devastating blow to peace efforts to see the leader of the world's largest democracy hug the world's most bloody criminal in Moscow on such a day," Zelenskyy wrote on X at the time.Modi's visits to both Ukraine and Russia characterize his relentless ambiguity on the Ukraine war. He has not condemned nor supported the invasion and is now acting as a peacemaker.The diplomatic highwire act highlights the dilemma Modi faces as he seeks to balance pressure from the US to show more support for Ukraine against <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/modi-putin-russia-india-relationship-not-worried-us-biden-mad-2024-7">maintaining good ties with Russia.</a><h2 id="5631f287-50fa-42fc-9492-15da89d39bf8">A quick end to the war</h2>In the wake of the Ukraine trip, Modi called Putin. In a post on X, Modi said he reiterated "India's firm commitment to support an early, abiding and peaceful resolution of the conflict."Dinakar Peri, a fellow at the Council for Strategic and Defense Research, told Business Insider that Modi's Ukraine visit was high on symbolism."Although the image of India being a peacemaker is largely rhetoric, the fact of the matter is that India is definitely uniquely positioned in comparison to many other countries due to the kind of bandwidth they have with Russia," said Peri.Rahul Bhatia, an analyst with the Eurasia Group, told BI that while India is reluctant to come down on one side in the Ukraine war, it sees grave dangers in a prolonged conflict in Ukraine."India has sought to take a balanced approach to the war in Ukraine. New Delhi wants to maintain its relationship with Russia regardless of its diplomatic isolation," said Bhatia.<h2 id="bb68f21a-9c73-4a16-a530-190e801237c5">India's ties with the Kremlin are tested</h2>Modi's insistence on not taking a side in <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russian-murder-convict-ivan-rossomakhin-kills-again-joins-army-wagner-2024-8">Ukraine</a> is likely to baffle and frustrate many Western observers, but analysts say there are vital economic and strategic goals behind India's position.India has long had <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/putin-bid-undermine-global-ukraine-support-working-zelenskyy-peace-2024-6">close diplomatic ties with Russia</a>. During the Cold War, it relied on the Kremlin for military support while the US-backed regional rival Pakistan.It now depends on Russia for oil supplies, surpassing <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/xi-china-putin-russia-frenemies-limits-power-sphere-influence-2024-7">China</a> this week to become Russia's top oil importer."Most of the oil India imports from Russia is actually going to Europe," said Peri. "India is just a conduit — the oil is refined here, and the refined petroleum products are going to Europe as we speak.""In that way, India has played the middle role of stabilizing the larger global economy, which would otherwise have gone for a toss."Peri also pointed out India's dependence on Russia for military equipment, as well as upgrades and spare parts."Around 60% of Indian military equipment is of Russian origin," said Peri. "We have received a lot from other countries in the last few decades, like France, Israel, and increasingly so from the US, but we're still heavily Russian-oriented."But the Ukraine war has shaken up India's relations with the Kremlin.The US is pressuring India to help isolate Putin as punishment for the Ukraine invasion, and India is worried about the Kremlin's increasingly close relationship with China, which has backed Russia amid the Ukraine invasion."India-US ties are not just about Russia or the war in Ukraine," said Peri. "They're also about trade and strategic cooperation, which in some cases is also underpinned by concerns over China or the larger developments in the Indo-Pacific."<h2 id="4c3050d8-adb0-46af-b14f-2689f19f7caa">India sees Russia as a buffer against China's aggression</h2>India has long been concerned about China's increasing aggressiveness in Asia, with a Himalayan border dispute erupting into clashes that left 24 people dead in 2020.Indian and Chinese militaries have been engaged in a standoff on the disputed region of Ladakh since 2020. Although the countries have disengaged on several points, the standoff has continued.Peri said that is India dependent on good ties with the Kremlin to help mitigate that threat: "The standoff created new dynamics for India, and those are all factors which will be in Indian calculations on the stand it takes."Bhatia agreed that India has an eye on China when it engages with Russia. "While New Delhi accepts that Russia and China will gradually grow closer, it believes that maintaining a good relationship with Moscow will ensure that Russia remains neutral when India-China border tensions flare up," he said.It also relies on close ties with the US to help counter China's aggression, reviving the "Quad" dialogue with the US, Australia, and Japan in 2017 to counter China's threat.In the meantime, Modi will likely continue India's tightrope act, maintaining its alliance with the US while seeking not to alienate the Kremlin as it warily watches China's growing might.

India's refusal to take a side in the Ukraine war is frustrating the West. But it has its reasons.

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Russian President Vladimir Putin is engaging in a war of attrition in Ukraine.</li><li>Russia has more to gain by prolonging the war, regardless of who wins the US presidential election.</li></ul>Kamala Harris and Donald Trump have starkly different visions of how they'll seek to end one of the gravest security crises in recent decades: <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/zelenskyy-ukraine-north-korean-troops-preemptively-long-range-strike-restrictions-2024-11">the</a><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/zelenskyy-ukraine-north-korean-troops-preemptively-long-range-strike-restrictions-2024-11"> Ukraine war.</a>Harris has pledged to continue the policy of President Joe Biden, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-soldiers-look-up-abrams-tanks-face-new-threats-ukraine-2024-8">arming Ukraine to defend itself </a>against Russia's two-year invasion.Trump, meanwhile, claims he can bring about a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/how-trump-could-handle-ukraine-war-if-reelected-scenarios-2024-10">rapid end to the conflict </a>through negotiations.Whoever is in charge in the White House come January, analysts believe Putin is likely wagering that he has more to gain by prolonging his war of attrition than ending it.<h2 id="3a744150-ba82-4dfb-b30b-8811820f42fe">Pressure mounts on Ukraine</h2>Russia has, in recent months, been ratcheting up pressure on Ukraine, bringing its larger troop numbers and artillery supplies to bear, and making incremental but important gains on the front lines."There are plans to call up more than 160,000 people," the secretary of Ukraine's National Security Council, Oleksandr Lytvynenko, told parliament last week.North Korea is also believed to have <a target="_blank" rel="" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/video-appears-show-north-korean-soldiers-gearing-up-in-russia-2024-10">sent thousands of troops</a> to aid Russia in its war against Ukraine, per officials from South Korea, Ukraine, and the US."The key advantage gained by Russia [in prolonging the war] is 'events'" Robert Dover, Professor of Intelligence and National Security at the University of Hull in the UK told Business Insider."Ukraine seems to be highly strained by the conflict, and this is - in part - a product of the numbers Russia is able to throw into the conflict," he said.<div type="image" title="Trump n Putin" height="820" width="1024" msid="114953184" hostid="261" sizebytes="31598"></div><h2 id="712a570c-ce6b-49c6-b90b-0c08b2faeb64">Trump's peace plans could embolden Russia</h2>The terms on which Trump would seek to broker peace in Ukraine are unclear, though he's criticized the aid Biden sent to Ukraine, suggesting it could be used as leverage.He has also <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://newrepublic.com/post/185652/trump-sanctions-promise-adviser-charged-russia-media">questioned the effectiveness </a>of the administration's sanctions against Russia.His running mate, JD Vance<a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/how-trump-could-handle-ukraine-war-if-reelected-scenarios-2024-10">, recently outlined a </a><a target="_blank" rel=" nofollow" class="" href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/09/12/vance-trump-ukraine-russia-war-plan/">plan for ending the war in Ukraine</a> under a possible Trump administration, with the establishment of a "demilitarized zone" in Russian-occupied Ukrainian territories.Both candidates have also questioned US commitments to NATO, the security pact that has been the main bulwark against Russian aggression in Europe.However, in reducing aid to Ukraine and, in effect, handing over swaths of territory to Russia, the US would likely embolden Kremlin aggression, say critics."If Russia knows its territorial revisionism in Ukraine can be permissible by Washington, it is hard to see how Moscow will not see the same elsewhere (or even further in Ukraine, like it did after 2014)," Paul Cormarie, a policy analyst at the RAND Coproration, told BI."Peace in Ukraine in favor of Russia isn't peace, it's a truce."Undermining Western unity by criticizing NATO could have much the same effect.<div type="image" title="Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and US President Joe Biden shake hands during a joint press conference at the Masseria San Domenico on the sidelines of the G7 Summit hosted by Italy." height="683" width="1024" msid="114953181" hostid="261" sizebytes="29734"></div><h2 id="43d5159f-1892-46df-b087-cadcd5c43edf">Harris pledges to continue backing Ukraine – but it likely won't be enough</h2>Harris, by contrast, has pledged to continue US support for Ukraine, which <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.state.gov/u-s-security-cooperation-with-ukraine/#:~:text=To%20date%2C%20we%20have%20provided,invasion%20of%20Ukraine%20in%202014.">has cost $64.1 billion</a> in military assistance since the 2022 Russian invasion.US aid has played a key role in helping Ukraine fend off the Russian invasion and inflict vast losses on Russia's forces.But the Biden administration has long placed limits on how Ukraine can use the weapons. Ukraine also says US aid often arrives in a piecemeal way.It's part of a US effort to balance support for Ukraine with not provoking Russia and causing a bigger war.But it means that Putin likely believes he can continue to wage his war of attrition against Ukraine with Harris as president as she likely won't provide enough military aid to defeat his forces.It's a war Putin has staked Russia's economic future on, underlining the importance of victory for the Russian leader.One key tool Biden has used to punish Russia is sanctions designed to damage its economy by limiting its capacity to sell oil and gas internationally.However, Russia has managed to open new export markets in major economies including China and India, making the economic damage of the sanctions has been more limited than some experts projected.Economist <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-economy-crisis-ukraine-war-moscow-inflation-sanctions-putin-spending-2024-10">Alexander Mertens recently wrote</a> that Russia would likely suffer economic damage regardless of whether it continues the war or not, meaning there's not a major incentive for Putin to stop now.<div type="image" title="Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping enter the hall for Russian-Chinese talks on May 16, 2024 in Beijing, China." height="760" width="1024" msid="114953186" hostid="261" sizebytes="24578"></div><h2 id="41991dd2-f4c0-4eea-aac2-1fdc873df772">Putin plays the long game</h2>Putin's thinking about the global picture, too said Dover.China is observing the Ukraine conflict closely as it weighs whether to launch an invasion of US-ally Taiwan, say analysts, while the Middle East is engulfed in a conflict that could spiral into a much bigger war.Dover said a major conflict in either region could draw in US resources and energy and distract from Ukraine."A regional conflict in the Middle East will help Russia maintain a conflict in Ukraine, with lower risks," he said, cautioning though that the situation was a "fluid assessment conditioned by events."Overall, Putin's mission is to not just seize Ukraine but also work in tandem with <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-china-brink-military-alliance-may-overwhelm-us-putin-xi-2023-12">other authoritarian leaders</a> to damage US global power."In the near-term, Russia and China have embraced a strategy of joint confrontation with the United States and its Allies in Europe and Asia respectively," analyst Jonathan Ward of the Hudson Institute told BI last year.Neither Harris nor Trump are likely to get Putin to change course in his pursuit of victory in Ukraine, and his bigger global ambition."He has taken personal responsibility for achieving that outcome and likely judges it as worth nearly any cost. Trying to coerce him into giving up is a fruitless exercise that just wastes lives and resources," wrote Peter Schroeder, former Principal Deputy National Intelligence Officer for Russia and Eurasia at the National Intelligence Council, for <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://archive.is/Y92WB#selection-1479.348-1479.412">Foreign Relations in September.</a>The best course, writes Schroeder, is for the US to play Putin at his own game and outlast him in his war of attrition, waiting for him to die or leave office."Only then will there be a chance for a lasting peace in Ukraine," he said.

Putin is in no hurry to end the Ukraine war, no matter who wins the US election

Last week, the President of the United States, <keyword id="19919748" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="joe-biden" source="keywords">Joe Biden</keyword>, announced significant tariffs on a range of <keyword id="20139085" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Chinese-products" source="keywords">Chinese products</keyword> to protect American workers from unfair trade practices. The targetted measures include a 100% tariff on <keyword id="6354973" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="electric-vehicles" source="Orion">electric vehicles</keyword>, a 50% tariff on semiconductors and solar cells, and a 25% tariffs on batteries, steel and aluminium products, some critical minerals, and essential health equipment like medical gloves, syringes and needles. In his address from the Rose Garden of the White House, Biden said America can continue to buy any kind of car they want, "but we're never going to allow China to unfairly control the market for these cars. Period." He claimed that the Chinese government has been investing state funds in various Chinese companies for years, spanning industries across the above-mentioned sectors. How does this brewing geopolitical <keyword id="20736760" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="trade-war" source="keywords">trade war</keyword> impact <keyword id="20742235" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Indian-firms" source="keywords">Indian firms</keyword>? Experts say the impact could be in two ways, benefitting some sectors, while harming the few others. Let’s start with the bad news. <cmsannotation type="cmsannotation" annotationid="Threat to Indian firms" comment="subhead" text="Threat to Indian firms">Threat to Indian firms</cmsannotation> Beijing offers significant subsidies on most of these products, leading to surplus production that exceeds domestic and even regular export demand. Subsequently, Chinese companies are known to flood the global markets with surplus products at unreasonably low prices, forcing local manufacturers out of business in many countries, including <keyword id="19895063" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="India" source="keywords">India</keyword>. A prime example of this in practice can be found in the steel sector, where weak domestic demand is pushing the world’s largest steel producer China to offload surplus production into Indian markets at cheaper prices. Indian steel manufacturers are already struggling to compete with a glut of cheaper Chinese steel, with shipments nearly doubling year-on-year in the financial year ending March 2024. “India is already under grave threat of import because all major steel consuming economies are shutting their doors on these steel producing countries. We are highly vulnerable to surging and predatory import,” said Alok Sahay, secretary general of the Indian Steel Association, to Reuters. Global trade experts say that a majority of Chinese products are sold at unreasonably low prices in global markets because the companies in these sectors do not have to worry about profits. They are heavily subsidised by the Chinese government. <keyword id="20279291" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Steel-Authority-of-India" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="Steel Authority of India" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="Steel Authority of India">Steel Authority of India</keyword>’s (SAIL) chairman Amarendu Prakash also said that they are keenly watching Chinese imports after the US tariff increases. Additionally, China has been accused of employing anti-competitive strategies like compelling foreign companies to transfer their technology in order to operate in China. These factors have led to the US effectively shutting its door on several Chinese products through heightened tariffs, and other developed markets like Canada are also likely to follow suit. White House also emphasised that it continues to consult with its partners and allies who are facing similar threats from China’s unfair trade practices and are keen on taking action. If more and more global markets restrict entry of Chinese products, the risk of the majority of such products being dumped in neighbouring India increases drastically. Trying to block Chinese excess production "is like squeezing a balloon. It shrinks in one place and pops out in another," William Reinsch, a trade expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, tells Reuters. <cmsannotation type="cmsannotation" annotationid="An opportunity also arises" comment="subhead" text="An opportunity also arises">An opportunity also arises</cmsannotation> While some products risk being dumped into the Indian market, in a few other cases, Indian firms could benefit from fresh openings in the lucrative US market. "Of the products affected, India has opportunities in face masks, PPE, syringes &amp;needles, medical gloves, aluminium, iron, and steel. Opportunity may come in China also with retaliation, provided we have market access in products targeted by China," Ajay Sahai, Director General of the Federation of Indian Export Organisations (FIEO), told ANI. However, China is not likely to retaliate against the US tariffs at the moment, say experts, though the country’s Ministry of Commerce said it would take 'resolute measures to safeguard its own rights and interests' "China's economy is fragile. With household spending and the property market on the wane, manufacturing for export markets is one of its few bright spots. Beijing will not want to cut off its nose to spite its face. More broadly, China is desperately trying to encourage new foreign investment. Rash retaliatory action could spoil its case," Moody's Analytics explained in a recent report. Out of China's USD 420 billion exports to the US, only USD 18 billion is impacted due to the latest hike in tariffs — representing slightly over 4% and therefore considered marginal. But Sahai says that this market will continue to grow with time and provides an opportunity to India and other competitors to chip in the supply gap. Ajay Srivastava, the founder of the Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI), also echoes Sahai’s opinions. He emphasised that the increased duties on Chinese face masks, syringes, needles, medical gloves, and natural graphite offer a substantial opportunity for India, as quoted by ANI. "By ramping up production and export of these in-demand products, India could enhance its trade footprint in the US market," he added. In terms of products like electric vehicles and semiconductors, India remains a net importer, and therefore, may not be in a position to capitalise right now. In the long term, however, as India begins semiconductor production at scale in 2025, there will be opportunities to export some of it to the US and other European countries, offering fresh impetus for domestic manufacturing. As the security risks associated with importing Chinese semiconductors prompts more and more trade barriers from the Western countries, demand for supply from India is likely to grow. Efforts are already underway for the establishment of four large semiconductor plants in India, with three located in Gujarat and one in Assam. Last fiscal year, Indian exports to the US dipped marginally by 1.32 per cent to $77.5 billion as against $78.54 billion in 2022-23. The new development now gives an unique opportunity to turn the tide over the next few years. Overall, some sectors like steel and aluminium do face a serious challenge due to the fresh US tariffs on Chinese products. However, the development will open new avenues for Western market entry and expansion for several other products. (With inputs from agencies)

US-China tariff war could benefit several sectors in India while harming a few others

<ul class="summary-list"><li>BRICS' Kazan Declaration on Wednesday contained 134 points — and only one discussed the Ukraine war.</li><li>That point was a call for all parties to abide by UN standards, despite Russia hosting this year.</li></ul>Over two dozen world leaders at this year's BRICS summit ended Wednesday's talks with the Kazan Declaration, a 134-point summary of their agreements.The war in Ukraine was only mentioned once in the 43-page document, and though Russian leader Vladimir Putin hosted the event, its wording is a far cry from the Kremlin's preferred rhetoric.That single paragraph contained none of Russia's usual talking points, instead urging all parties to act in accordance with United Nations standards — a more neutral statement often used by nations like China."We emphasize that all states should act consistently with the Purposes and Principles of the UN Charter in their entirety and interrelation," the document reads. "We note with appreciation relevant proposals of mediation and good offices, aimed at a peaceful resolution of the conflict through dialogue and diplomacy."<a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-october-23-2024">The Institute for the Study of War</a> wrote on Wednesday that the language in the document shows that Russia, despite its leading position at the summit, still isn't able to shape the stances of friendly world leaders on its war."The Kazan Declaration notably only mentioned Russia's war in Ukraine once," the Washington-based think tank wrote.Russia has denied the sovereignty of Ukraine and said its invasion is justified as a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/putin-said-invaded-ukraine-stop-nato-expanding-has-achieved-opposite-2022-5">counter to NATO's expansion</a> and due to <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/putin-tries-justifying-ukraine-war-denazification-zelensky-jewish-president-2022-2">debunked allegations that Ukraine is a Nazi-run state.</a>The declaration "demonstrated that Russia has not yet secured the international support nor created the alternative security structure that the Kremlin desires," ISW added.That's significant because Moscow has been trying to get its allies on board with its invasion while the West isolates the Russian economy in response. The US and Ukraine have repeatedly accused China, a founding BRICS member, of supplying Russia with weapons parts and economic support.Yet several founding members of the BRICS group, such as Brazil and India, still maintain strong economic ties with the US amid its support for Kyiv.The Kazan Declaration, meanwhile, condemned Israeli actions in the Middle East in five points, including criticism of a strike on the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/deadly-israeli-strike-syria-could-put-us-forces-crosshairs-iran-2024-4">Iranian consulate in Syria</a>, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/israel-attack-lebanon-hezbollah-past-invasion-2024-10">Tel Aviv's invasion of southern Lebanon</a>, and the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/israel-gaza-hamas-civilian-casualties-children-deaths-airstrikes-palestinian-2023-10">war in Gaza.</a>World leaders also spent two paragraphs discussing the South Sudanese Civil War.The summit also exposed the difficulties that Western sanctions have inflicted on life in Russia. Leaders met in Kazan, which is in the southwestern Republic of Tatarstan region.Business Insider's Huileng Tan wrote that organizers said <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/dedollarization-russia-brics-summit-foreign-attendees-cash-usd-euros-putin-2024-10">card transactions there</a> would be unavailable due to restrictions on Mastercard and Visa cards issued outside Russia.Attendees were instead asked to bring cash in US dollars or euros — the same currencies that Putin has been trying to get his allied countries to drop — to exchange for rubles at Russian banks.

BRICS' new declaration shows Russia's war still can't get the international backing that Moscow wants

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Jamie Dimon warns rising geopolitical tensions could weaken the global economy and stock markets.</li><li>Dimon highlights wars, energy supply risks, and deteriorating international relations as key threats.</li></ul><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/stocks/jpm-stock">JPMorgan</a> CEO Jamie Dimon warned that investors are overlooking a key risk that could significantly weaken the global economy and stock markets over the next century.It's not inflation, a recession, or AI taking over humanity; rather, it's rising geopolitical tensions that have already flared up into armed conflicts around the world."Geopolitics is getting worse, they are not getting better. There is chance for accidents in energy supply. God knows if other countries get involved. You have a lot of war taking place right now," Dimon told <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.cnbc.com/2024/09/24/jpmorgan-ceo-jamie-dimon-warns-geopolitics-is-getting-worse.html">CNBC-TV18</a> during a visit to India on Tuesday.The rising geopolitical tension is Dimon's "biggest caution" and dwarfs all other visible risks to the economy. Dimon is especially worried about the ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine.In an <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LHT6yB6RFYc">interview last week</a> at the 2024 Financial Markets Quality Conference, Dimon was even sharper in his warning to investors."The most important thing that dwarfs all other things, that's really important, far more important today than it's been probably since 1945, is this war in Ukraine, what's going on in Israel in the Middle East, America's relation with China, and the attack fundamentally on the rule of law that was set up after World War II," Dimon said.Dimon continued, noting that an "evil axis" of countries threatens global economic stability."It's threat of nuclear blackmail. Iran, North Korea, and Russia I think you can legitimately call an evil axis. They're working every day on how to make it worse for the Western world and for America," Dimon said.He added: "This may affect the free and democratic world for the next 100 years and I think that's the most important thing. I think people overly focus on a soft landing, hard landing, honestly most of us have been through all of that stuff, it doesn't matter as much."As for China, while Dimon said it doesn't see them as part of the evil axis, he does believe <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-and-china-anti-us-coalition-is-growing-more-threatening-2024-9">they are on the "wrong side" of the global tensions.</a>China has increased its trade with Russia since the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine war in February 2022, and they have friendly economic ties with Iran.Ultimately, what's bad for the global economy is also bad for stock markets.Dimon said that if geopolitical tensions elevate to instability and conflict, it will drag down the stock market in a way that pales in comparison to prior market crashes."If it really goes south, obviously it will affect markets like you've never seen," Dimon warned.The antidote to the problem, according to Dimon, is strong leadership."It takes really strong American leadership and Western world leadership to do something about it," Dimon said.

Jamie Dimon says an 'evil axis' of countries threatening war is the biggest risk to the world economy in the next century

For a country struggling to fight brutal poverty, internal conflicts, political instability, and bureaucratic inefficiency, the 1990s was a breath of fresh air. The economy was liberalised, the IT industry started booming, a telecom revolution was underway, a successful nuclear test was conducted, and the emergence of strong regional parties gave voice to the politically weak sections. But on May 3, 1999, as Pakistani intrusion was reported at the Kargil borders, India was on the cusp of losing a decade-long progress to an unprovoked war. Over the next three months, the Indian <keyword id="19903970" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="armed-forces" source="keywords">armed forces</keyword> fought with all might not just to defend the borders, but to show to the world that its preference for peace is not a sign of weakness. <keyword id="21429298" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="Kargil-Vijay-Diwas" source="keywords">Kargil Vijay Diwas</keyword>, commemorated annually on July 26th, stands as a testament to India's indomitable spirit and the unwavering courage of its armed forces. This day marks the culmination of the <keyword id="20143432" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Kargil-War" source="keywords">Kargil War</keyword>, a conflict that tested the nation's mettle and forged a legacy of heroism. Addressing the 25th celebrations of the Kargil War victory, <keyword id="6354814" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="prime-minister-narendra-modi" source="Orion">Prime Minister Narendra Modi</keyword> said that the Kargil War win is neither the victory of any government in power nor of any political group, it is the heritage and the victory of 140 crore people of India. <h2>The genesis</h2>Despite signing the Lahore Declaration in February 1999 for a peaceful resolution of the Kashmir issue, a covert infiltration by Pakistani troops into the Kargil sector of Jammu and Kashmir in May 1999 triggered a crisis. Disguised as militants, they occupied strategic positions along the Line of Control (LoC), aiming to disrupt the Kashmir-Ladakh link. The <keyword id="19908736" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Indian-Army" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="Indian Army" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="Indian Army">Indian Army</keyword>, upon discovering the intrusion from local shepherds, launched Operation Vijay, a counter-offensive to reclaim the occupied heights. <h2>Battling against nature and the enemy</h2>The Kargil War was a gruelling ordeal, fought in the unforgiving Himalayan terrain. Soldiers battled not only the enemy but also the harsh, high-altitude conditions. The covert movement of the Pak army helped them position themselves at strategically advantageous, high-altitude positions. As temperatures plummeted and oxygen levels dwindled, the rugged mountains posed immense logistical challenges to the ground forces. Yet, the Indian Army, driven by patriotism and a relentless determination to protect the nation's sovereignty, pressed on. <h2>Heroes of the Kargil War</h2>The Kargil War produced a pantheon of heroes whose bravery continues to inspire generations. Captain <keyword id="20211435" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="vikram-batra" source="keywords">Vikram Batra</keyword>, with his iconic battle cry "Yeh Dil Mange More," led his troops to capture Point 4875, a pivotal victory. Lieutenant Manoj Kumar Pandey, displaying exceptional courage, made the supreme sacrifice while defending his post. These brave soldiers, among many others, epitomized the indomitable spirit of the Indian Army. The Kargil War galvanized the nation. People from all walks of life came together to support the armed forces. The collective outpouring of patriotism and solidarity fueled the soldiers' resolve. Nearly 500 Indian soldiers lost their lives battling the enemy in unforgiving Himalayan terrains. The war also highlighted the sacrifices made by the families of the martyrs, whose courage and resilience were equally inspiring. <h2>A legacy of valour</h2>Kargil <keyword id="21992554" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="vijay-diwas" source="keywords">Vijay Diwas</keyword> is more than just a commemoration; it is a reaffirmation of India's commitment to peace and security. The sacrifices made by the brave soldiers who fought in the Kargil War will forever be etched in the nation's memory. Their unwavering courage and determination continue to inspire future generations to serve the country with dedication and honour. As India celebrates the 25th anniversary of Kargil Vijay Diwas today, it is essential to remember the heroes who laid down their lives for the nation. Their supreme sacrifice will never be forgotten by a country on its path to glory on a global stage. <h2>A continued tragedy</h2>The Kargil War left behind a deadly legacy along with long-term trauma among the local residents and the defence personnel who fought valiantly. As per a TOI report, unexploded bombs scattered across the region continue to pose a significant threat to the local population. In 2023 — 24 years after the tragic war — a total of around 336 such unexploded bombs were reportedly neutralised by the Army. Residents live in constant fear of accidental detonations, especially during construction or excavation work. These incidents have resulted in multiple casualties in the past several years, including the tragic death of a young child. Despite the passage of 25 years, the Army remains actively engaged in defusing these dangerous remnants of war. Even this year, as many as 103 such bombs were defused by the Army. <div type="Article" hostid="261" msid="112016324" title="Ex-army officer runs 160 km, 40 km per day, to mark Kargil Vijay Diwas anniversary" mstype="2" mssubtype="0"><payload><![CDATA[seealso]]></payload></div> <div type="Article" hostid="261" msid="112031216" title="Families of soldiers pays tribute to soldiers who lost lives in 1999 Kargil War" mstype="2" mssubtype="0"><payload><![CDATA[seealso]]></payload></div>

Kargil Vijay Diwas: A tale of valour and sacrifice

<ul class="summary-list"><li>The US X-37B and China's Shenlong are unmanned spacecraft that play secretive roles in space.</li><li>Space-based technology has long given the US military an edge.</li></ul>Just before the start of 2024, the United States and China <a target="_blank" href="https://www.airandspaceforces.com/x-37-chinese-space-plane-launch/">launched</a> what may be their most secretive spacecraft into orbit to little fanfare.Commonly referred to as space planes, the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/missions-experiments-for-space-force-mysterious-x-37b-space-plane-2020-5">American X-37B</a> and the Chinese Shenlong are unmanned spacecraft so secretive that their launches were marked with little more than vague general statements from their governments.The <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/spacex-launched-a-top-secret-military-spaceplane-into-orbit-2023-12">launches</a> are the seventh and third missions for the respective spacecraft, and although they are highly classified, observers have had limited success in tracking some of their movements.The missions demonstrate exceptional leaps in the development of space planes, and come at a time when both the Chinese and US militaries have ramped up their <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-must-control-space-in-future-wars-top-marine-general-2023-12">space operations</a> — a new frontier that can determine the course of war.Space-based technology has long given the US military an edge. It can track the movements of enemy weapons with powerful <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/manned-orbiting-laboratory-crewed-us-spy-satellite-never-sent-to-space-2024-1">spy lenses</a> and provide the navigation and communications systems ships, aircraft, and troops in the field depend upon.Enter the space plane. From one vantage, they could be robot keepers who keep these large networks fueled and functional, but from another, they could be orbiting spies and saboteurs.What's clear is that their missions are getting more complex, as is their centrality to the strategies of the two countries that fly them.<div type="image" title="The uncrewed X-37B, seen here after its 2019 landing at NASA's Kennedy Space Center Shuttle Landing Facility, is believed to be about 30 feet long." height="1333" width="2000" msid="112761598" hostid="261" sizebytes="82008"></div><h2 id="3dc83e63-5cf2-42d5-8174-a6f3d2577c69">X-37B</h2>A space plane is a reusable spacefaring craft that can maneuver in space independently and also fly and glide within Earth's atmosphere. They are sent into space via a detachable <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/elon-musk-spacex-launch-secret-spy-satellites-space-force-government-2022-8">rocket booster</a>, and contain a cargo bay to deploy satellites and other objects for use and experimentation.After completing their mission, they independently return to Earth's atmosphere, land at a designated landing site on their own power, and prepare for their next mission. The most well-known space planes are the American <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/challenger-video-nasa-space-shuttle-program-2016-1">Space Shuttle</a> and the Soviet <a target="_blank" href="https://airandspace.si.edu/stories/editorial/soviet-buran-shuttle-one-flight-long-history">Buran</a>. But in contrast to the Space Shuttle, the X-37B is owned and operated by the military.The X-37B's origin begins in 1999, when the civilian space agency NASA awarded Boeing a contract to develop a small unmanned spacecraft capable of fitting inside the Space Shuttle. What they created was a small space plane measuring approximately 30 feet long and with a wingspan of 15 feet — roughly one-fourth the size of the now-retired Space Shuttle.It also contains a cargo bay measuring about 7 feet by 4 feet, which, in addition to housing satellites and other space cargo also holds a solar panel enabling the space plane to recharge. Boeing says the plane's avionics automate its descent from orbit and landing.In 2004, before a working prototype had even been built, the project was <a target="_blank" href="https://www.space.com/337-nasa-transfers-37-project-darpa.html">transferred</a> to the US Defense Department, specifically the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency. Glide tests on the first testing prototypes (known as the X-37A), <a target="_blank" href="https://www.space.com/1226-rutan-white-knight-carries-37-space-plane-aloft.html">began in 2005</a>, with the first fully successful free glide occurring in 2006.That same year, the project was transferred from DARPA to the United States Air Force Space Command, which then built another model, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/details-about-air-force-space-plane-that-spent-2-years-in-space-2017-5">the X-37B</a>. Also known as the Orbital Test Vehicle (OTV), two X-37Bs have been built.They have flown seven flights so far, with each being <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/unmanned-craft-us-space-force-lands-2-5-years-orbit-2022-11">longer</a> than the previous one. Though most of the details of the flights and their results remain classified, some information has been released to the public.<div type="image" title="The X-37B launched from NASA's Kennedy Space Center in 2017." height="1333" width="2000" msid="112761595" hostid="261" sizebytes="88120"></div>The first flight began on April 22, 2010, and saw the first X-37B remain in orbit for a total of 224 days. The second flight, which was the second X-37B's inaugural mission, began on March 5, 2011, and was extended well beyond its original 270-day limit to a total of 468 days. The third flight, beginning on December 11, 2012, marked the first time an X-37B had been reused, and lasted 674 days.The fourth flight began on May 20, 2015. Over the course of 717 days, the space plane tested new propulsion technology for satellites as well as the effects of radiation on certain objects.The X-37B's fifth flight on September 7, 2017 was launched atop Space X's <a target="_blank" href="https://www.spacex.com/vehicles/falcon-9/">Falcon 9</a> rocket (all previous launches were with the <a target="_blank" href="https://www.ulalaunch.com/rockets/atlas-v">Atlas V</a> rocket). Over the course of 780 days — a little over two years — the space plane performed a number of activities and experiments, including the deployment of multiple <a target="_blank" href="https://www.jpl.nasa.gov/topics/cubesats">CubeSat</a> satellites, which NASA foresees as an orbiting sensory network that can solve complex tasks with a "powerful central spacecraft."The sixth flight began on May 17, 2020, and lasted <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/unmanned-craft-us-space-force-lands-2-5-years-orbit-2022-11">908 days</a>. It was the first mission conducted under the command of the newly formed U.S. Space Force and may have been one of the busiest missions yet. It exposed select materials to space, tested the effects of space radiation on seeds, and deployed <a target="_blank" href="https://www.usafa.edu/research/research-centers/space-systems-research-center/">FalconSat-8</a>, a satellite built by US. Air Force Academy cadets to conduct five experiments.The X-37B's most recent and current flight began on December 28, 2023. Its mission is classified, with the Space Force <a target="_blank" href="https://www.spaceforce.mil/News/Article-Display/Article/3583347/department-of-the-air-force-scheduled-to-launch-seventh-x-37b-mission/">stating</a> only that it will be "operating the reusable space plane in new orbital regimes, experimenting with future space domain awareness technologies, and investigating the radiation effects on materials provided by NASA."The <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/space-force-guardian-nick-hague-spacex-rocket-iss-2024-2">Space Force</a> has not given the X-37B's flight path, but because it was launched atop SpaceX's <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/photo-spacex-falcon-heavy-launchpad-blasted-lightning-rocket-spaceflight-musk-2023-5">Falcon Heavy rocket</a>, there has been speculation that the space plane could be headed for a much higher orbit than previous missions, as the rocket is one of the most powerful in the world.<div type="image" title="A Long March-2F rocket blasted off in October carrying a manned spaceship from China's Jiuquan Satellite Launch Center. The Shenlong was launched on December 14 from the same center without images or fanfare." height="1333" width="2000" msid="112761594" hostid="261" sizebytes="201664"></div><h2 id="ef23e953-67f4-4399-8bc9-c452d0019685">Shenlong</h2>Named after the most important dragon god in Chinese mythology and first revealed in 2007, the Shenlong is thought to be a direct Chinese response to the X-37B.The program is surrounded in such extreme secrecy that there are no known images of the space plane in its current form. Images of what is believed to be a Shenlong test prototype <a target="_blank" href="https://www.space.com/18410-china-space-plane-project-mystery.html">mounted under the fuselage of an H-6 strategic bomber</a> in 2007 indicate that the craft is likely to be similar in appearance to the X-37B.Though its specific capabilities remain classified, it is known that, like the X-37B, the Shenlong is unmanned, that it is deployed via a rocket, that it is capable of adjusting its position and maneuvering in space, and that it can carry and deploy satellites and other space objects.Perhaps the most impressive thing about the Shenlong is the speed of its development. Though the exact start date is unknown, academic models of a Chinese space plane were reported as far back as 2000.Years of modelling, wind tunnel testing, and prototype test fights via deployment from H-6 bombers followed, and in 2011, the Shenlong reportedly made its first suborbital flight.On September 4, 2020, the Shenlong made its <a target="_blank" href="https://spacenews.com/chinese-reusable-experimental-spacecraft-releases-object-before-returning-to-earth/">first orbital flight</a>, which lasted two days and saw it release an object into orbit before returning to China on its own power. A second orbital flight began on August 4, 2022, and <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-lands-secretive-space-plane-after-months-in-orbit-2023-5">lasted</a> nine months.<div type="image" title="The X-37B launched on its sixth flight in May 2020 from Cape Canaveral Air Force Station." height="1280" width="2000" msid="112761596" hostid="261" sizebytes="165564"></div>In addition to being considerably longer, the Shenlong's second flight was far more eventful. About two months into its flight, the space plane <a target="_blank" href="https://spacenews.com/chinas-spaceplane-conducted-proximity-and-capture-maneuvers-with-subsatellite-data-suggests/">deployed a subsatellite and then practiced recovering it</a> at least two (and possibly even three) times, a capability for so-called proximity operations that may allow it to snatch an enemy's satellite.The Shenlong embarked on its third and current flight on December 14, 2023, just seven months after its second mission. In May, the Shenlong <a target="_blank" href="https://spacenews.com/chinas-secretive-spaceplane-conducts-proximity-operations-with-small-spacecraft/">released an object from its cargo hold, and began proximity operations</a>, possibly even recapturing it.How much longer the Shenlong will remain in orbit, as well as its future plans more broadly, remain secrets that the Chinese government has shown little appetite for divulging. The government has only <a target="_blank" href="https://app.xinhuanet.com/news/article.html?articleId=b9141bb29a221c45ac2ad0d44dc87fc6">said</a> that the space plane will eventually land in China, and that "reusable technology verification and space science experiments will be carried out as planned to provide technical support for the peaceful use of space."The vague wording resembles previous statements, like those of its builder, China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation, which has previously said that the Shenlong "will provide a more convenient and inexpensive way to access space for the peaceful use of space in the future."<div type="image" title="The satellite networks of the US and its allies could be targeted by enemy spaceplanes." height="1280" width="1920" msid="112761592" hostid="261" sizebytes="362914"></div><h2 id="2f25d6b5-fe78-4384-a750-e76f8663eacb">Satellite threat</h2>Given the immense secrecy of the crafts and what is known about their capabilities, it's easy to understand speculation that the two space planes could be orbiting weapons platforms.The very fact that the US Department of Defense is in charge of the X-37B instead of <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/category/nasa">NASA</a> confirms that the US government believes that there is a military application for the space plane. Similarly, the fact that the Chinese government has been so silent on the Shenlong's activities despite its penchant for boasting about its other space accomplishments may be a tacit indication that there is more to the Shenlong than the 'peaceful use of space.'One of the most impactful possible uses of the space planes is as <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-condemns-irresponsible-russian-anti-satellite-test-threatening-space-station-2021-11">anti-satellite assets</a>. Both have deployed satellites from their cargo bays, and the Shenlong's proximity operations may be training runs for attacks on hostile satellites in orbit.<a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russian-inspector-satellite-chasing-secret-us-military-satellite-cat-mouse-2023-4">Proximity operations</a> are murky. They could be dress rehearsals for disrupting or eavesdropping on an enemy's satellite, just as they could be drills for missions to refuel and repair one of the country's own satellites.Satellites are among the most important assets for any first-rate military, as they are essential for secure communications, navigation, and intelligence gathering via orbital imaging and communication intercepts. They are even sometimes used to guide smart munitions to hostile targets as well.Neutralizing an enemy's satellites would be one of the most important objectives in any potential conflict between the world's foremost military powers. <a target="_blank" href="https://swfound.org/media/9550/chinese_asat_fact_sheet_updated_2012.pdf">China</a>, the <a target="_blank" href="https://www.thespacereview.com/article/4198/1">US</a>, <a target="_blank" href="https://carnegieendowment.org/research/2019/04/indias-asat-test-an-incomplete-success?lang=en">India</a>, and <a target="_blank" href="https://carnegieendowment.org/posts/2021/11/the-dangerous-fallout-of-russias-anti-satellite-missile-test?lang=en">Russia</a> have each demonstrated a capability to destroy satellites in orbit with anti-satellite missiles, but each of those tests resulted in the creation of large debris fields in orbit that took sometimes took years to disappear. Such debris fields could also pose a very severe threat to friendly satellites as well. China's anti-satellite missile test in 2007 triggered a space debris cloud that was an <a target="_blank" href="https://spectrum.ieee.org/hollywood-space-disaster-gravity-uses-kessler-syndrome-for-scares">inspiration</a> for the blockbuster film "Gravity."Having a way to neutralize or even capture satellites, then, could be a better alternative. Tapping into enemy satellites to eavesdrop or shut down their data streams and communications could also serve as a better alternative, and may also be possible with the assistance of space plane (similar to the tapping of underwater cables by submarines).With the militarization of space <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.csis.org/analysis/there-path-counter-russias-space-weapons">seemingly fast becoming</a> reality and with China's space program demonstrating that it can <a target="_blank" href="https://spacenews.com/chinas-shijian-21-spacecraft-docked-with-and-towed-a-dead-satellite/">tow away satellites</a>, it is likely that space planes will only become more important in the years ahead.Benjamin Brimelow is a freelance journalist covering international military and defense issues. He holds a master's degree in Global Affairs with a concentration in international security from the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy. His work has appeared in Business Insider and the Modern War Institute at West Point.

America's X-37B vs. China's Shenlong: Top space planes and their shadowy role in orbital war

When Josh Holbrook, a software engineer in Alaska, was laid off in January, he didn't expect to spend too much time looking for a new job. He certainly didn't think he'd need to relearn the job-hunt process.A few weeks into his search, however, Holbrook found himself out of his depth. Instead of speaking with a human recruiter at a local healthcare organization, he was screened by an AI chatbot. His résumé, created nearly a decade ago in a technical format popular among academics, was incompatible with new automated recruitment platforms. He signed up for a professional service to update it in an AI-friendly format."The experience was completely novel," Holbrook told me. "I've never seen that before."Over the past couple of years, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/job-market-high-pay-employees-labor-economy-finding-work-2024-4">job seekers</a> have been forced to contend with <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/layoffs-firings-tech-hr-tiktok-cloudflare-employee-morale-bad-business-2024-1">incessant layoffs</a>, a <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/ai-chatgpt-hiring-ghost-interviews-job-search-weird-labor-market-2023-5">brutal recruitment market</a>, and days of unpaid assignments. They can now add AI recruiting systems to that pile. In 2022, the Society for Human Resource Management found that about 40% of the large-scale employers it surveyed said they were already deploying AI in HR-related activities like recruitment. Rik Mistry, who consults on large-scale corporate recruitment, told Business Insider that AI is now leveraged to write job descriptions, judge an applicant's skills, power recruiting chatbots, and rate a candidate's responses. Ian Siegel, the CEO of ZipRecruiter, estimated in 2022 that nearly three-fourths of all résumés were never seen by humans.Some job hunters have decided to fight fire with fire, turning to programs that <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/job-applications-hiring-ai-bots-spam-resume-cover-letter-2024-3">use AI to optimize their résumés</a> and apply to hundreds of jobs at a time. But the emerging AI-versus-AI recruitment battle is bad news for everyone. It turns hiring into a depersonalized process, it inundates hiring managers, and it reinforces weaknesses in the system it's designed to improve. And it only seems to be getting worse.Automation in recruitment isn't new: After job sites like Monster and LinkedIn made it easy for people to apply for jobs in the early 2010s, companies adopted <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/why-your-resume-gets-rejected-job-search-bots-people-ats-2024-5">applicant-tracking systems</a> to manage the deluge of online applications. Now most résumés are first seen by software designed to evaluate a person's experience and education and rank them accordingly.The automation has helped ease the burden on overstretched recruiters — but not by much. As the stacks of digital résumés have grown amid frequent changes to remote-work policies, the recruitment hamster wheel has spun ever faster. AI is supposed to fix this mess, saving companies time and money by outsourcing even more of the hiring process to machine-learning algorithms. In late 2019, Unilever said it had saved 100,000 hours and about $1 million in recruitment costs with the help of automated video interviews. Platforms like LinkedIn and ZipRecruiter have started using generative AI to offer candidates personalized job recommendations and let recruiters generate listings in seconds. The Google-backed <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/moonhub-secures-1-4-million-for-vr-training-platform-2024-2">recruitment-tech startup Moonhub</a> has an AI bot that scours the internet, gathering data from places like LinkedIn and Github, to find suitable candidates. On HireVue, employers can let a bot with a set questionnaire conduct video assessments <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/ai-surveillance-detects-emotion-at-work-gets-you-fired-2023-11">to analyze candidates' personalities</a>. Newer startups combine these abilities in a centralized service, allowing firms to put "<a target="_blank" href="http://hollyhires.ai">hiring on autopilot</a>."But hiring experts Business Insider spoke with weren't convinced it's all for the best. Many fear that over time AI will make an already frustrating system worse and spawn fresh issues like ghost hires, where companies are misled into recruiting a bot masquerading as a person.Several seasoned recruiters told me they hadn't incorporated AI into their workflow beyond auto-generating job descriptions and summarizing candidate calls. Tatiana Becker, who specializes in tech recruiting, said software that claims to match résumés with jobs lacked the nuance to do more than keyword matching — it couldn't, for instance, identify desirable candidates who came from top schools or had a history of earning strong promotions. Chatbots that Becker's boutique agency experimented with would frequently mismatch prospects and roles, ultimately pushing the prospects away.This résumé matching "might work for applicants of more entry-level jobs," Becker told BI, "but I would worry about using it for anything else at this point."Despite the problems, many companies are marching forward. "We know AI isn't perfect, but we have to use it as there's pressure from the higher-ups," said a recruiter in a Fortune 500 firm who spoke on the condition of anonymity to candidly discuss his company's hiring process.Pallavi Sinha, the vice president of growth at Humanly, a startup that offers a conversational-AI hiring platform to companies like Microsoft, said that "AI in recruiting, similar to other industries, is very much at a nascent stage." But she predicted it would continue to be incorporated into hiring."AI isn't here to replace human interactions," she said, "but to make our jobs and lives easier — something that we'll see more and more of over time." Sinha declined to share how many applications Humanly had processed but said its chatbot service had over a "million conversations last year alone."For candidates, though, AI has been a nightmare. Kerry McInerney, an AI researcher at the University of Cambridge, said AI increases the amount of labor for applicants, forcing them to complete puzzles and attend automated interviews just to get to the selection stage. She argued that it makes a "depersonalized process even more alienating."Holbrook, the software engineer, wrote on LinkedIn about his frustration. "AI is too stupid to recognize transferrable skills among tech applicants," he said, adding, "I had a resume bounced because I don't have c# listed as a fluent language, even though I've dealt with c# in my jobs and have worked with plenty of languages that are 90% the same as c#."Danielle Caldwell, a user-experience strategist in Portland, Oregon, was confused when an AI chatbot texted her to initiate the conversation about a role she had applied for. At first, she thought it was spam. After the exchange, she was left with more questions."There was no way to ask questions with the bot — it was a one-way experience," Caldwell said.The University of Sussex has found that AI video interviews can be <a target="_blank" href="https://blogs.sussex.ac.uk/policy-engagement/files/2021/10/Automated-job-interviews-and-the-implications-for-young-jobseekers.pdf">disorienting for job seekers</a>, who behave much less naturally in the absence of a reassuring human presence. Plus, Mclnerney said, assessing a candidate's personality based on their body language and appearance is not only "reminiscent of 19th- and 20th-century racial pseudoscience but simply doesn't work." Her <a target="_blank" href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s13347-022-00543-1">research</a> has demonstrated that even things like wearing a headscarf or having a bookshelf in the background can change a personality score. A cottage industry of tools has sprung up to help candidates game AI systems. One called LazyApply, for example, can apply to thousands of jobs online on your behalf for $250. "Anyone who has had to review over 50 résumés in one sitting wants to put a toothpick in their eyes," said Peter Laughter, who's been in recruitment for about three decades. With AI, he said, "you are only accelerating the brokenness of recruiting."Bonnie Dilber, a recruiting manager at Zapier, said these services contributed to problematic behaviors on both sides of hiring. Candidates' submitting hundreds of applications leaves recruiting teams struggling to keep up and respond, which in turn pushes applicants to feel that they need to submit even more applications to stand a chance.A more pressing issue, Dilber added, is that often these bots submit poor applications. Dilber and other recruiters told BI that some cover letters say only, "This has been submitted by [AI tool], please contact [person's email] with questions." When Aki Ito, a BI correspondent, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/job-applications-hiring-ai-bots-spam-resume-cover-letter-2024-3">tried using AI to apply for jobs</a>, the system got her race wrong, made up that she spoke Spanish, and submitted an outdated cover letter."We had some people accidentally include ChatGPT's entire response," Hailley Griffis, the head of communications and content at Buffer, told BI. Griffis, who said she reviewed an average of 500 applications per open role, added, "There is a very distinct tone with a lot of AI content that hasn't been edited, and we saw a lot of that."Recruiters and researchers also worry about AI's tendency to reinforce many of the recruitment industry's <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/ai-racism-bias-new-inclusive-solutions-2024-3">existing biases</a>. Researchers from the Berkeley Haas Center for Equity, Gender and Leadership <a target="_blank" href="https://ssir.org/articles/entry/when_good_algorithms_go_sexist_why_and_how_to_advance_ai_gender_equity">said in 2021</a> that of about 133 biased AI systems they analyzed, about 44% exhibited gender bias. Other recent studies have found that AI systems are prone to <a target="_blank" href="https://federalnewsnetwork.com/artificial-intelligence/2022/05/eeoc-doj-sounding-alarm-over-ai-hiring-tools-that-screen-out-disabled-applicants/">screening out applicants with disabilities</a> and de-ranking résumés with names associated with Black Americans.Unlike a human, an algorithm will never look at past hiring decisions and rectify its mistakes, said Sandra Wachter, a tech and regulation professor at the University of Oxford. It will always do as it has been taught.Wachter, whose team developed a bias test that's been adopted by companies like IBM and Amazon, believes <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/ai-help-recruit-hire-employees-tech-women-bias-job-seeking-2024-1">it's possible to use AI to make fairer decisions</a> — but for that to happen, employers need to address systemic issues with more inclusive data and regular checks. Moonhub, for example, has a human recruiter who vets the AI's recommendations and speaks with candidates who prefer a human over a chatbot.But until AI improves enough, humans will remain the most effective hiring systems. Becker, the tech recruiter, said humans were still critical for "getting to the heart of the candidate's decision-making process and helping them overcome apprehensions if they've gotten cold feet," as well as for "dealing with counteroffers."David Francis, a vice president at Talent Tech Labs, a recruitment research and advisory firm, said that while "recruitment is still and will always be a very human-focused process," AI "is a tool and can be used effectively or poorly."But when it's used poorly, both candidates and recruiters suffer. After four months of job searching, Josh Holbrook has yet to find a job.<a target="_blank" rel="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/author/shubham-agarwal">Shubham Agarwal</a> is a freelance technology journalist from Ahmedabad, India, whose work has appeared in Wired, The Verge, Fast Company, and more.

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