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India is poised to remain the fastest-growing major economy in 2024-25, Chief Economic Adviser V Anantha Nageswaran said in a press conference after the tabling of the <keyword id="20613906" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="economic-survey" source="keywords">Economic Survey</keyword> in the Parliament on Monday. The Economic Survey tabled today projected India to grow at 6.5-7.0 per cent in 2024-25. Global institutions, including <keyword id="19896779" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="IMF" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="IMF" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="IMF">IMF</keyword>, OECD, World Bank, S&amp;P, ADB, and Fitch, have projected India to grow in a range of 6.6-7.2 per cent. The International Monetary Fund (IMF), in its latest outlook, has raised India's growth projections for 2024 from 6.8 per cent earlier to 7 per cent, with the country maintaining the fastest-growing status in emerging markets and developing economies. According to official data of the Indian government, the country's GDP grew at an impressive 8.2 per cent during the financial year 2023-24. India's economy grew 7.2 per cent in 2022-23 and 8.7 per cent in 2021-22 respectively. Further, the CEA in his press conference projected that India's <keyword id="20089672" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="per-capita-income" source="keywords">per capita income</keyword> is expected to increase from around Rs 2 lakh in 2022-23 to Rs 14.9 lakh in 2046-47. Further, CEA said <keyword id="20751315" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="household-savings" source="keywords">household savings</keyword> of Indians in physical assets have been increasing over the past three financial years through 2023-24. The CEA, addressing the press conference, said household savings in physical assets rose from 8 per cent in 2020-21 to 12.9 per cent in 2022-23. "Households are not in distress, they are investing in <keyword id="20792385" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="financial-assets" source="keywords">financial assets</keyword> that have done very well. Financial assets of households are not marked to market so households are doing quite well in the aggregate," he said. India needs both banks and capital markets to provide the required finances sourced from a sustained high level of household savings, according to the Survey. <keyword id="20385790" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Union-Finance-Minister" source="keywords">Union Finance Minister</keyword> Nirmala Sitharaman on Monday tabled the economic survey in Parliament, a day ahead of the full Budget presentation for 2024-25. The Economic Survey document, prepared by the Economic Division of the Department of Economic Affairs in the Ministry of Finance and formulated under the supervision of the chief economic adviser, gives insights into the state of the economy and various indicators of 2023-24 (April-March) and some outlook for the current year. The Economy Survey document also gave some idea about the tone and texture of the actual Budget for 2024-25, to be presented on Tuesday. (ANI)

India to remain fastest growing major economy in 2024-25, says CEA Nageswaran

New Delhi [India], June 5 (ANI): The Bharatiya Janata Party (<keyword id="19894848" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="bjp" source="keywords">BJP</keyword>)-led National Democratic Alliance (<keyword id="19938590" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="NDA" source="keywords">NDA</keyword>) secured a majority in the general elections, securing a third term for Prime Minister Narendra Modi. This victory indicates continuity in policy, particularly in <keyword id="21785272" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="infrastructure-spending" source="keywords">infrastructure spending</keyword> and boosting domestic manufacturing, which are expected to support robust <keyword id="19900794" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="economic-growth" source="keywords">economic growth</keyword>. However, the NDA's slim margin of victory and the BJP's loss of an outright majority in parliament may slow down more extensive economic and fiscal reforms, potentially impeding <keyword id="20101140" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="fiscal-consolidation" source="keywords">fiscal consolidation</keyword> efforts. In fiscal 2023-24, India's real GDP accelerated to 8.2 per cent from 7.0 per cent the previous year, driven by significant gains in gross fixed capital formation as the government's infrastructure programs gained momentum, even as private consumption remained subdued. <keyword id="20227907" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Moodys" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="Moody's" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="Moody's">Moody's</keyword> projects India's economic strength to continue, with an anticipated real <keyword id="19972825" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="GDP-growth" source="keywords">GDP growth</keyword> of around 7 per cent over the three-year period from fiscal 2023-24 to 2025-26. This growth is expected to benefit from ongoing infrastructure development and digitalization efforts. Despite this outlook, structural weaknesses pose risks to long-term growth potential. High youth unemployment and low productivity growth in the agriculture sector constrain economic expansion. The agricultural sector's modernization has been stalled by political challenges, as evidenced by the repeal of key reforms in 2021 following widespread farmer protests. Additionally, gains in manufacturing have been uneven, limiting labour force diversification away from agriculture, which still accounts for 40 per cent of total employment. Foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows have declined over the past three years, despite a favourable geopolitical climate amid US-China tensions. This trend suggests persistent constraints within India's investment climate. To address these challenges, further structural reforms and enhanced implementation of existing initiatives, such as the production-linked incentive schemes to promote manufacturing, calibrated liberalisation of cross-border trade, and reconsideration of labour reforms, are necessary. The government's focus on fiscal consolidation is expected to continue, but significant improvements in debt ratios and interest servicing have yet to be realised. Since the trough in fiscal 2020-21, the central government's deficit has likely narrowed for three consecutive years. The interim budget for fiscal 2024-25 projects a deficit of around 5 per cent of GDP, aiming for a 4.5 per cent deficit by fiscal 2025-26. However, India's fiscal consolidation post-pandemic has not outpaced other emerging markets in Asia-Pacific, and its fiscal and debt metrics remain weaker than those of Indonesia, the Philippines, Thailand, and other Baa-rated peers globally. India's general government debt is projected to stabilise above 80 per cent of GDP over the next three years, compared to 70.5 per cent in fiscal 2018-19. General government interest payments are forecast to fall to around 24 per cent of general government revenue over the next two years, down from over 28 per cent in fiscal 2020-21, but still higher than the pre-pandemic ratio of less than 23 per cent. While increased budgetary allocations for infrastructure indicate an improvement in spending quality, debt servicing remains a significant portion of expenditure, reflecting ongoing constraints on fiscal flexibility. This situation underscores the need for the incoming government to balance fiscal consolidation with growth-supportive measures. The upcoming final budget for the fiscal year ending March 2025 will provide further insights into India's fiscal policy direction through 2029. As the Modi administration embarks on its third term, the focus will likely remain on sustaining economic growth while addressing the persistent <keyword id="21500054" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="fiscal-challenges" source="keywords">fiscal challenges</keyword> that hinder India's long-term economic potential.

Modi 3.0 will offer policy continuity, but BJP's loss of outright majority may slow down fiscal reforms: Moody's

Moody's Analytics on Tuesday said <keyword id="3658" type="General" weightage="80" keywordseo="india" source="Orion">India</keyword>'s domestic economy, rather than trade, is its primary engine of growth and the slowdown in economic activity late last year will only be temporary. The government data released last week showed India's gross domestic product (GDP) growth slowed to a three-quarter low of 4.4 per cent in October-December,2022, mainly due to a contraction in manufacturing and low private consumption expenditure. While the manufacturing sector contracted by 1.1 per cent, private consumption expenditure slowed to 2.1 per cent in the October-December quarter of the current fiscal. In its report on emerging market outlook, Moody's Analytics said growth slowed substantially on a year-ago basis, with private consumption lagging overall GDP for the first time since the <keyword id="6383835" type="General" weightage="50" keywordseo="delta" source="Orion">Delta</keyword> wave of Covid-19 struck the economy in the second quarter of 2021. "Our take is that the slowdown late last year will be temporary and even salutary, helping to wring some of the demand-side pressures out of the economy without stopping it wholesale. On the external front, better growth in the US and <keyword id="28249" type="General" weightage="50" keywordseo="europe" source="Orion">Europe</keyword>'s incipient recovery will propel India at the mid-year mark," it said. The US and Europe are India's largest trade partners and are important destinations for exports of business services. The slowdown in GDP growth in the December quarter was stark when compared to 11.2 per cent growth in the same quarter of last fiscal. In the current fiscal, the economy grew 13.2 per cent in the April-June quarter and 6.3 per cent in the July-September quarter. Moody's Analytics said India's domestic economy, rather than trade, is its primary engine, in contrast to most other emerging-Asia economies. "With this in mind we observe India's fourth-quarter performance with caution," it said. Sectors such as manufacturing and agriculture that are highly linked to private consumption spending either contracted or barely grew during the December quarter of the current fiscal. The normally faster-growing construction and retail and wholesale trade sectors came in somewhat hotter, though both lagged gains from earlier this year. "While high-interest rates have slowed the domestic economy and curbed imports, external imbalances have widened, putting pressure on the rupee and adding to inflation," Moody's Analytics noted. In the current fiscal (2022-23), the GDP is projected to grow by 7 per cent as per official estimates. This would require about a 5 per cent GDP expansion in the fourth (January-March) quarter. In 2021-22 the economy grew 9.1 per cent. In 2020-21 (The covid-impacted year), the economy contracted 5.8 per cent, while in 2019-20 the growth was 3.9 per cent. SEE ALSO: <a target="_blank" class="c-link c-message_attachment__title_link" href="https://www.businessinsider.in/science/health/news/silicon-gold-and-copper-could-help-fight-covid-19-says-an-australian-study/articleshow/98475233.cms">Silicon, gold and copper could help fight Covid-19 says an Australian study</a> <a target="_blank" class="c-link c-message_attachment__title_link" href="https://www.businessinsider.in/entertainment/news/from-raazi-to-mardaani-all-the-times-a-woman-shouldered-a-bollywood-film-to-success/slidelist/98452356.cms">From Raazi to Mardaani: All the times a woman shouldered a Bollywood film to success</a>

Slowdown in GDP growth late last year temporary: Moody's Analytics

<ul><li>This year will likely be remembered for marking its emergence as the world's most populous nation.</li><li>By 2050, the UN expects <keyword id="3658" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="india" source="Orion">India</keyword> will have 1.6 billion residents and China 1.3 billion.</li><li>A growing working-age population is an important source of economic growth, so India's emergence will give it new power in international politics.</li></ul> If any major middle-income country is truly outperforming in the coming decades, it's the world's soon-to-be third largest economy (and its largest democracy), India, Eurasia Group said in a report. "In my view, 2023 will be remembered for India's emergence as the third pole of the world," wrote <keyword id="15992875" type="General" weightage="50" keywordseo="shigesaburo-okumura" source="Orion">Shigesaburo Okumura</keyword>, Editor-in-Chief of Nikkei Asia, in a recent article. Another important factor not to be neglected is India. This year will likely be remembered for marking its emergence as the world's most populous nation, Okumara wrote. According to the UN, China's population last year was 1.426 billion while India's was 1.417 billion. In July, the UN forecast that China's population would fall in 2023 while India's would surpass it. By 2050, the UN expects India will have 1.6 billion residents and China 1.3 billion. A growing working-age population is an important source of economic growth, so India's emergence will give it new power in international politics, Okumara said. Moreover, decoupling between the US and China and the rebuilding of technology supply chains to exclude China benefits India. <keyword id="6354427" type="General" weightage="50" keywordseo="apple" source="Orion">Apple</keyword> is building iPhone 14s in India. <keyword id="292865" type="General" weightage="50" keywordseo="natarajan-chandrasekaran" source="Orion">Natarajan Chandrasekaran</keyword>, chairman of <keyword id="46894" type="General" weightage="50" keywordseo="tata-sons" source="Orion">Tata Sons</keyword>, has talked of plans to produce semiconductors in the subcontinent. In March, India will host the plenary session of the <keyword id="833063" type="General" weightage="50" keywordseo="trilateral-commission" source="Orion">Trilateral Commission</keyword> for the first time. This year, it is also chairing the Group of 20, a role that will involve a leaders' summit and many ministerial meetings. The Modi government will be eager to show leadership ahead of India's own elections in 2024, Okumara wrote. "The new year thus could mark the beginning of a tripolar world, involving the US, China and India. New Delhi is undeniably on the rise," Okumara concluded. <keyword id="47256" type="General" weightage="50" keywordseo="challenges" source="Orion">Challenges</keyword>, however, are mounting for India's economy with the GDP forecast at a half-century low. Motilal Oswal Financial Services forecast in a note that after growing strongly for two consecutive years, India's real GDP growth would decelerate to 5.2 per cent YoY in FY24, while nominal GDP growth would weaken even sharply to 7-7.5 per cent, led by easing inflation. A combination of factors such as slower global economy, fading pent-up demand and normalising base effects would contribute to slower real growth. With an expected retail inflation print at just 4.3 per cent and a mere 1 per cent growth in the wholesale price index (<keyword id="46000" type="General" weightage="50" keywordseo="wpi" source="Orion">WPI</keyword>) in FY24, the GDP deflator could be around 2 per cent, dragging down India's nominal GDP growth to the lowest level compared to any year between the early 1970s and FY19 (that is, half-a-century pre-Covid period), the report said. Such slow growth rate would have some serious implications for the macro economy and financial markets. "Overall, we believe that unlike the past 12-15 months, the narrative will reverse in FY24. Inflation concerns will take a back seat and growth worries will resurface. This may be true not only for India, but also for the entire global economy. At the same time, restrictive monetary policy will fail to boost financial markets. Accordingly, CY23 could be very painful," the report said. Revenue of listed companies is highly correlated with nominal GDP growth (and WPI-inflation). In case of single-digit nominal GDP growth, corporate sales growth is also expected to weaken from an average of &gt;30 per cent YoY in the past seven quarters to single digits in FY24. With an expectation of weaker nominal GDP growth in FY24, we estimate India's debt growth to also weaken. Thus, bank credit growth could also moderate from 15-16 per cent in FY23 to 12 per cent in FY24 with a downward bias, the report said. As central banks across the world simultaneously hike interest rates in response to inflation, the world may be edging toward a global recession in 2023 and a string of financial crises in emerging market and developing economies that would do them lasting harm, according to a comprehensive new study by the <keyword id="6354424" type="General" weightage="50" keywordseo="world-bank" source="Orion">World Bank</keyword> in September. Several historical indicators of global recessions are already flashing warnings. The global economy is now in its steepest slowdown following a post-recession recovery since 1970. Global consumer confidence has already suffered a much sharper decline than in the run-up to previous global recessions. The world's three largest economies -- United States, China, and the Euro zone -- have been slowing sharply. The experience of the 1970s, the policy responses to the 1975 global recession, the subsequent period of stagflation, and the global recession of 1982 illustrate the risk of allowing inflation to remain elevated for long while growth is weak. The 1982 global recession coincided with the second-lowest growth rate in developing economies over the past five decades, second only to 2020. It triggered more than 40 debt crises and was followed by a decade of lost growth in many developing economies, the World Bank said. India's current account deficit expectedly swelled to a 37-quarter high of $36.4 billion (4.4 per cent of GDP) in Q2 FY23 from $18.2 billion in Q1 FY23 (2.2 per cent of GDP). The resulting net balance of payments (BoP) position registered a deficit of $30.4 billion (3.7 per cent of GDP), its weakest since the 2008 global financial crisis, compared to a surplus of $4.6 billion in Q1 FY23, Acuite Ratings said. Amid an uncertain geopolitical environment and slowing global growth, however, risks will remain on both current account balance and capital flows, it said. With excessive demand supply disparities, bloated supply chain management and battle against inflation weighing down on global economic growth, the New Year started on a gloomy outlook as IMF predicts global GDP growth topping at 2.7 per cent, narrowly escaping recession, Nuvama Professional Clients Group said in a note. The economy has been supported by sturdy domestic demand as indicated in GST collections and consumer spending. However, the industrial output contracted by 4 per cent YoY in October, the worst in over two years, hobbled by the drop in orders from western markets and weak investment at home, the note said. Standard Chartered said in a report that 2023 global macroeconomic backdrop is likely to be challenging given the heightened risk of a slowdown as lagged effects of monetary policy tightening leads to a weaker demand scenario and lower corporate earnings performance. As the monetary policy rate cycle peaks amid receding inflationary pressures in the second half of the year, risk sentiment could improve with the growth outlook stabilising. "In our assessment," the bank noted, "India's growth-inflation dynamics is stable and better than its peers." The post-pandemic economic recovery cycle remains strong amid supportive government policies and a pick-up in investments. Further, the likely broadening of the rural economy's recovery and of the service sectors is a strong tailwind, the note said. SEE ALSO: <a target="_blank" class="c-link c-message_attachment__title_link" href="https://www.businessinsider.in/business/news/indias-startup-economy-stares-at-deepening-funding-winter-in-2023/articleshow/96807902.cms">India's startup economy stares at deepening funding winter in 2023</a> <a target="_blank" class="c-link c-message_attachment__title_link" href="https://www.businessinsider.in/thelife/personalities/news/ar-rahman-unknown-facts-about-about-indian-composer-and-oscar-winner/articleshow/96793884.cms">AR Rahman can leave dinner midway if inspiration strikes &amp; other anecdotes about the reticent music maestro</a> <a target="_blank" class="c-link c-message_attachment__title_link" href="https://www.businessinsider.in/science/health/news/india-mulls-2nd-covid-booster-even-as-coverage-of-first-dose-remains-feeble/articleshow/96792098.cms">India mulls 2nd Covid booster even as coverage of first dose remains feeble</a>

India could emerge as the third pole despite GDP growth worries say experts

YouTube contributed nearly a billion dollars to India’s GDP in 2020, finds an independent study

<keyword id="19895063" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="India" source="keywords">India</keyword> requires an investment support of USD 1.4 trillion — an average of USD 28 billion per year — to become a net-zero economy by 2070 and raising <keyword id="20260327" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="financial-resources" source="keywords">financial resources</keyword> for adaptation and mitigation action of this scale is an "unprecedented challenge", according to the <keyword id="20613906" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Economic-Survey" source="keywords">Economic Survey</keyword> 2023-24 tabled in Parliament on Monday. Reaching net zero means achieving a balance between greenhouse gas emissions and the amount of these gases removed from the atmosphere by either natural processes, such as photosynthesis, or by other methods of carbon capture and storage. The consolidated report on the state of the economy in the previous year said India's climate action has been largely financed through domestic resources and the flow of international finance has been "very limited". Citing the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) data, the report said bridging the "substantial funding gap" necessitates allocating 2.5 per cent of India's annual Gross Domestic Product (GDP) to <keyword id="20018880" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="green-finance" source="keywords">green finance</keyword>. "Preliminary estimates indicate that the aggregate investment support required by India to achieve its 2070 net-zero target will be USD 1.4 trillion at an average of USD 28 billion per year. Raising financial resources for <keyword id="19907392" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="climate-change" source="keywords">climate change</keyword> adaptation and mitigation actions of this scale is an unprecedented challenge," the document read. A 2022 report by the Climate Policy Initiative found that domestic sources accounted for the majority of green finance in India, at 87 per cent and 83 per cent in financial years 2019 and 2020 respectively. While international sources are increasing (from 13 per cent in FY 2019 to 17 per cent in FY 2020), the economic survey said they are still insufficient to meet India's net-zero target. "Mobilising substantial capital from traditional sources presents multifaceted challenges in emerging economies like India. The perceived sovereign risks associated with emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs) and the capital-intensive nature of such projects, coupled with lengthy gestation periods and evolving regulatory frameworks, can create misalignment between investor expectations and project timelines," the government said. The economic survey also noted that the flows of global capital to <keyword id="20200084" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="developing-countries" source="keywords">developing countries</keyword> have been impeded by high costs of capital. Despite securing a good rating on its green-bond framework, Indian sovereign <keyword id="20177085" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="green-bonds" source="keywords">green bonds</keyword> have hardly received any "greenium" from private investors. It is more a "wall of capital" than a "flood of capital" that is waiting to fund energy transition in EMDEs. It is just not mobile. All of these together have severely hampered the flow of finance for green-transition projects, the survey said. "Greenium" or green premium refers to the savings an issuer of a green bond realises on the associated coupon payment because the bond is green. Financial support to help middle-income and poor countries fight climate change will be at the centre of this year's UN climate conference in Baku, Azerbaijan, where the world will reach the deadline to agree on the New Collective Quantified Goal (NCQG) -- the new amount developed nations must mobilise every year starting 2025 to support climate action in developing countries. But achieving consensus will not be easy, given the disappointing progress made on major conflict points at the mid-year UN climate talks in Bonn, Germany. At the 2009 UN climate conference in Copenhagen, rich nations pledged to provide USD 100 billion annually from 2020 to help developing countries mitigate and adapt to climate change. However, delays in achieving this goal have eroded trust between developed and developing nations and have been a continual source of contention during annual climate negotiations. In May, the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) claimed that developed countries had met the long-standing USD 100 billion-a-year promise by providing nearly USD 116 billion in <keyword id="20000757" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="climate-finance" source="keywords">climate finance</keyword> to developing countries in 2022, with nearly 70 per cent of the money given in the form of loans. However, international non-profit organisation Oxfam last week said climate finance provided by rich countries in 2022 totalled no more than USD 35 billion. Developing nations argue that they cannot be expected to reduce carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions faster if developed countries -- historically responsible for climate change -- do not provide enhanced financial support. Rich countries are now expected to raise more than USD 100 billion, with developing countries, including India, demanding trillions of dollars to tackle climate change.

Raising massive financial resources for net-zero goal unprecedented challenge: Economic Survey

India's government <keyword id="21309215" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="healthcare-spending" source="keywords">healthcare spending</keyword> appears to be on the rise, but a closer look reveals a concerning trend. While the headline figures might suggest an increase, the reality is a steady decline in health expenditure as a proportion of both the <keyword id="19936553" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="budget" source="keywords">budget</keyword> and GDP over the past five years (2018-19 to 2023-24). This decline is even starker when adjusted for inflation. In real terms, spending has barely kept pace since 2019-20. As a percentage of the total budget, health spending has shrunk from 2.4% in 2018-19 to just 1.9% in 2023-24. Similarly, the share of GDP allocated to health has fallen from 0.30% to 0.28%, as per a report from the Times of India. <h2>Growing expectations ahead of <keyword id="15478236" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="budget-2024" source="Orion">Budget 2024</keyword></h2>As the Finance Minister <keyword id="19916618" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="nirmala-sitharaman" source="keywords">Nirmala Sitharaman</keyword> prepares to present the full budget for the current fiscal on July 23, the expectations from the health sector has only been growing. “The Union Budget 2024-25 is a pivotal moment for India's healthcare sector. Building on the ₹64,180 crores allocated in 2023-24 under the Pradhan Mantri Atmanirbhar Swasth Bharat Yojana, we need enhanced tax incentives and financial support for healthcare startups to catalyze innovation. Significant investments in <keyword id="21226679" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="digital-health-infrastructure" source="keywords">digital health infrastructure</keyword>, particularly AI, will improve patient outcomes and operational efficiency,” says Dr Sravani Reddy G, Founder &amp; CEO, Soprav Healthcare Consulting. “Strengthening public-private partnerships will improve healthcare accessibility and quality, leveraging private sector efficiency. Additionally, focused efforts on affordability and access, such as reducing out-of-pocket expenses and improving insurance coverage, are vital for a more equitable healthcare system.” “The healthcare sector in India is on the brink of excellence. There is an increased focus on treating unique patient cases, robotic surgeries, and increasing prominence of AI for accurate diagnosis. To reach the next phase, emphasis must be laid on innovation, research &amp; development, and infrastructure development. These are the foundations for India’s health sector to achieve an international standard of treatment for all,” hopes Joseph Pasangha, Group COO, SPARSH Hospital, Bengaluru. <div type="Article" hostid="261" msid="111730426" title="Pan-India rollout of U-WIN to track routine immunisations likely by Aug end" mstype="2" mssubtype="0"></div> <h2>Health tax not helping enough </h2>This situation is further complicated by the introduction of the <keyword id="22446013" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="health-cess" source="keywords">health cess</keyword> in 2018. This tax levy was intended to boost government spending on healthcare, particularly for the underprivileged. However, the collected funds seem to be merely filling the gap created by cuts to regular budgetary allocations for health. In 2022-23, over Rs 18,300 crore of the central government's health spending came from the health cess. Excluding this amount, the actual budgetary allocation for health stands at a concerning Rs 59,840 crore. This is lower than the pre-pandemic level of Rs 66,042 crore allocated in 2019-20, even without adjusting for inflation. <h2>Where's the money going?</h2>The intended purpose of the health cess seems to be falling short. In 2018, health spending accounted for 2.4% of the government's total expenditure. If this ratio had remained constant in 2023-24, the health budget should have been over Rs 1.07 lakh crore. Instead, the revised expenditure, including the health cess, stands at just Rs 83,400 crore. Even the additional allocations for the COVID-19 pandemic (Rs 10,655 crore and Rs 15,955 crore in 2020-21 and 2021-22 respectively) cannot mask the overall decline. When combined with the regular health budget (excluding health cess), the total spending in these years still falls short of what it would have been if the 2.4% share of 2018-19 had been maintained. <h2>More for alternative medicine</h2>While the share allocated to Ayush (Ayurveda, Yoga &amp; Naturopathy, Unani, Siddha and Homeopathy) has seen a significant increase, spending on crucial areas like health research has seen only marginal growth. Additionally, a major portion of research funding goes to the Indian Council of Medical Research, with only a temporary increase during the peak of the pandemic response. The most concerning decrease is in the allocation for health and family welfare, encompassing national programs, the National Health Mission, and health system strengthening. This critical area has seen a substantial decline in its share of both GDP and total budget expenditure, falling from a peak of over 2% in 2017-18 to a mere 1.7% in 2023-24. Excluding the health cess, this figure drops even further to 1.5%. <h2>What this means</h2>This decline in government health spending raises serious concerns about India's commitment to public healthcare, particularly for its most vulnerable populations. Increased investment in health is crucial for a growing nation like India, and a reversal of this downward trend is essential to ensure accessible and quality healthcare for all. The 2024 Interim Health Budget saw a boost in total healthcare expenditure from Rs. 79,221 crore to Rs. 90,171 crore. Experts have opined that The healthcare budget should encompass at least 2.5% of the total budget. But it remains to be seen how the exact picture will turn out to be on July 23. “The 2024-25 budget presents an opportunity to build on past successes while addressing shortcomings, ensuring that India's healthcare system remains resilient, innovative, and patient-centric. This budget can pave the way for a healthier, more equitable future for all," concludes Dr Reddy. (With inputs from TOI) <div type="Article" hostid="261" msid="111689743" title="Union Budget 2024: A handy FAQ guide to decode the upcoming budget" mstype="2" mssubtype="0"></div>

Despite pandemic and growing health scares, India’s budget share for healthcare continues to decline

<ul><li>Violence has reportedly cost the world a whopping $16.5 trillion in 2020, according to a GPI report.</li><li><keyword id="3658" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="india" source="Orion">India</keyword> ranked 72 in this regard, with a cost of $646 billion.</li><li>Syria, South Sudan and the Central African Republic were the worst affected countries with the highest economic impact.</li><li>South Asia remained the second least peaceful region but recorded the largest increase in peacefulness, largely driven by improvements in ongoing conflicts.</li></ul>If India was anything like Iceland, it wouldn’t have been just the most peaceful country but also virtually debt-free. With the money that the violence has cost us — $646 billion — the country could have funded all its budget expenditures and various welfare programmes with ease. But, India holds a dismal 72nd rank in the <keyword id="167042" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="global-peace-index" source="Orion">Global Peace Index</keyword> (GPI). The <keyword id="14212009" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="economic-cost-of-violence" source="Orion">economic cost of violence</keyword> is as much as 6% of its <keyword id="35050" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="gdp" source="Orion">GDP</keyword>. Farmers protest, lakhimpur case were some of the popular violent acts that took place in 2021. India’s neighbours – Pakistan and China stood at 54th and 138th, respectively. In the last few years, India has been a victim of year-long protests against government policies, curfews, internet shutdowns apart from various big terror events like Mumbai attacks and bombings in almost every major city, naxal activities across multiple states and more. In addition to loss of life and injury, these events also cost the country both directly and indirectly. <table style="border-width: initial; border-style: none; table-layout: fixed; width: 468pt;"></colgroup><tbody><tr><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">Country </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">Economic impact of violence (in millions) </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">Per capita impact </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">Economic cost of violence as percentage of GDP </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">Economic cost of violence (in millions) </td></tr><tr><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">India </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">$1,170,922 </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">$841 </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">6% </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">$645,843 </td></tr><tr><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">Pakistan </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">$148,637 </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">$700 </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">8% </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">$80,303 </td></tr><tr><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">China </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">$1,951,603 </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">$1,376 </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">4% </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">$ 1,049,173 </td></tr></tbody></table>Source: <keyword id="509350" type="General" weightage="80" keywordseo="global-peace" source="Orion">Global Peace</keyword> Index report “The economic impact of violence includes the direct and indirect costs of violence as well as an economic multiplier applied to the direct costs. The economic cost of violence includes only the direct and indirect costs. Per capita and percentage of GDP results are calculated using the economic cost of violence,” the report said. Syria, South Sudan and the Central African Republic were the worst affected countries with the highest economic impact. Iceland, Kosovo and Switzerland were the least affected ones with only 2% as their economic cost as percentage of GDP. The average economic impact of the ten most affected countries by violence was equivalent to 34% of world GDP. “The economic value of lost peace reached record levels in 2021. There is a need to reverse this trend, and the GPI has shown that those countries that implement the attitudes, institutions and structures that create and sustain peaceful societies, witness an improved economic outcome,” said Steve Killelea, founder and executive Chairman of IEP. The number of countries experiencing violent internal conflict rose from 29 to 38, but the number of people killed in internal conflicts has fallen since 2017. South Asia remained the second least peaceful region but recorded the largest increase in peacefulness, largely driven by improvements in ongoing conflicts. SEE ALSO: <a target="_blank" class="c-link c-message_attachment__title_link" href="https://www.businessinsider.in/thelife/news/these-are-the-most-peaceful-countries-in-the-world-indias-rank-has-improved-marginally/slidelist/92244821.cms">These are the most peaceful countries in the world; India’s rank has improved</a> <a target="_blank" class="c-link c-message_attachment__title_link" href="https://www.businessinsider.in/india/news/spicejet-hiked-its-ticket-prices-indigo-and-others-might-follow-suit/articleshow/92251751.cms">SpiceJet hiked its ticket prices; Indigo and others might follow suit</a>

$646 billion — that’s the economic cost of violence in India

<keyword id="3658" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="india" source="Orion">India</keyword>'s gross domestic product during fiscal year 2021-22 is estimated at 8.7 per cent as compared to a contraction of 6.6 per cent in 2020-21, official data showed on Tuesday. The <keyword id="35050" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="gdp" source="Orion">GDP</keyword> grew 4.1 per cent year on year in Q4FY22, data showed. In the same quarter of FY21, it was 1.6 per cent. The <keyword id="6354335" type="General" weightage="80" keywordseo="reserve-bank-of-india" source="Orion">Reserve Bank of India</keyword> (<keyword id="30067" type="General" weightage="80" keywordseo="rbi" source="Orion">RBI</keyword>) had projected GDP for the fiscal that ended in March at 9.5 per cent and for Q4 at 6.1 per cent. Besides, the combined Index of Eight <keyword id="880162" type="General" weightage="80" keywordseo="core-industries" source="Orion">Core Industries</keyword> stood at 143.2 in April 2022, which is an increase of 8.4 per cent (provisional) as compared to the index of April 2021. The production of coal, electricity, refinery products, fertilisers, cement, and natural gas industries increased in April 2022 over the corresponding period of last year.

India's GDP grew 8.7% in FY22, 4.1% in Q4

Industry body <keyword id="6355001" type="ORGANIZATION" weightage="20" keywordseo="ficci">Ficci</keyword> on Sunday said its Economic Outlook Survey has projected the country's annual median GDP growth for 2020-21 at (-) 4.5 per cent. With the rapid spread of COVID-19 pandemic manifesting into an economic and healthcare crisis globally, the latest forecast marks a sharp downward revision from the growth estimate of 5.5 per cent reported in the January 2020 survey, it said. The pandemic outbreak has severely impacted the economic activities as the country had to go through a lockdown to check spread of the virus. However, the restrictions are being gradually eased. While addressing SBI Banking and Economics Conclave on Saturday, RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das said the Indian economy has started showing signs of getting back to normalcy in response to the staggered easing of restrictions. "It is, however, still uncertain when supply chains will be restored fully; how long will it take for demand conditions to normalise; and what kind of durable effects the pandemic will leave behind on our potential growth," he said. In May, the Reserve Bank had said the GDP growth during 2020-21 is likely to remain in the negative territory. Releasing details of the survey, Ficci said the present round of 'Economic Outlook Survey' was conducted in June 2020 and drew responses from leading economists representing industry, banking and financial services sector. "The latest round of Ficci's Economic Outlook Survey puts forth an annual median GDP growth forecast for 2020-21 at (-) 4.5 per cent - with a minimum and maximum growth estimate of (-) 6.4 per cent and 1.5 per cent respectively for 2020-21," it said. As per the survey, the quarterly median forecasts indicate GDP growth to contract by (-) 14.2 per cent in the first quarter of 2020-21, with a minimum estimate of (-) 25 per cent and a maximum estimate of (-) 7.4 per cent. Economic activity-wise annual forecast indicated a median growth of 2.7 per cent for agriculture and allied activities for 2020-21. "Agriculture seems to be the only sector with a silver lining right now. There is an apparent upside as far as the performance of monsoon is concerned this year and the water reservoir levels in the country stand at good levels," the industry chamber said. According to the survey, the rural sector supported by a steady agriculture performance and hopefully a contained number of COVID-19 cases will be a key demand generator for India this year. The survey further said that industry and services sector, on the other hand, are expected to contract by 11.4 per cent and 2.8 per cent, respectively in 2020-21. Weak demand and subdued capacity utilisation rates were already manifesting into a drag on investments and the COVID-19 pandemic has further extended the timeline for recovery, it said. Even though activity in sectors like consumer durables, FMCG is gaining traction, majority of the companies are still operating at low capacity utilisation rates. Labour availability and feeble demand remain as major issues for the companies, it added. "Therefore, fresh investments will be difficult to come by in the near to medium term. Also, a significant change in consumption patterns is expected on back of uncertainty with regard to jobs and income losses," Ficci said. It noted that absence of demand stimulus, a second wave of the pandemic and continuation of social distancing and quarantine measures will weigh heavy on growth prospects. "With demand and investment outlook muted, robust government expenditure has been the only saviour. Nonetheless, growth is likely to bottom out post the second quarter of current fiscal year," it said. According to the survery, some of the stimulus measures are reaching to the ground – especially through the credit guarantee scheme for MSMEs and support through MGNREGA – which is positive. During the survey, economists were asked to share their views on the fiscal stimulus package 2.0 and any additional measures that can be undertaken. Participants were of the view that government measures in stimulus focussed broadly on saving lives and undertaking deep structural reforms. "They, therefore, felt that while the quasi fiscal measures and structural reforms announced were undoubtedly steps in the right direction, on ground implementation and results will take a long time to work through in the present environment," it added. A majority of economists believed that the government could have undertaken "a more aggressive" fiscal stance than what has been announced in the two packages combined. Participating economists also highlighted that the measures announced by both the Reserve Bank of India and government focussed largely on addressing supply side constraints with limited support for creation of demand. Ficci said the surely participants unanimously believed that the RBI would undertake further cuts in the repo rate going forward to minimise the economic shock and stabilise financial markets. Nonetheless, a majority of the participants also opined that cutting interest rates would not pump economic growth given that the demand conditions have remained subdued from even before the COVID pandemic struck the economy. The fast-changing macroeconomic environment and deteriorating outlook for growth necessitated off-cycle meetings of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the RBI – first in March and then again in May 2020. The MPC decided to cumulatively cut the policy repo rate by 115 basis points over these two meetings, resulting in a total policy rate reduction of 250 basis points since February 2019. Ficci said economists were asked to suggest ways with which India could best utilise the present opportunity to expand its presence in the global value chains. Efforts towards liberalisation of FDI policy must be complemented with improving infrastructure and ease of doing business in the country, it added. RSN NKD BAL

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