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<ul class="summary-list"><li>The next US president faces a range of international challenges and potential crises.</li><li>War continues in Ukraine, tensions are rising across the Indo-Pacific region, and ongoing issues plague the Middle East.</li></ul>Just two months out from the 2024 US presidential election, former President Donald Trump and <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/joe-biden-dropping-out-what-happens-next-2024-7">Vice President Kamala Harris</a> are working to appeal to American voters on issues like the economy, culture, women's healthcare, and education, among other domestic matters.But there's a lot going on abroad right now, and many of these problems likely aren't going away anytime soon.Regardless of who is elected to the highest office this fall, the next president will potentially face a wide range of international challenges — and potential crises — that may draw their attention beyond the US borders. Issues range from <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-military-drills-near-taiwan-send-new-president-a-message-2024-5">China and Taiwan</a> to the Middle East to the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/ukraine-typhoon-military-unit-drone-operations-training-2024-9">Ukraine war</a>.Trump's first term, and his foreign policy in particular, were marked by an "America First" strategy that overhauled the US role on the global stage. On a second go around, it's unclear what that continued approach would look like, although he's recently expressed some controversial opinions on NATO, how he would have handled <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/israel-no-win-situation-gaza-after-months-war-crush-hamas-2024-1">Israel's war in Gaza</a>, and the Ukraine war.<div type="image" title="Israeli tanks move near Gaza border as Israeli army deploys military vehicles around the Gaza Strip, Israel on October 12, 2023." height="3648" width="5472" msid="113169548" hostid="261" sizebytes="1586574"></div>Harris, on the other hand, may find international issues to be something of a<a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/kamala-harris-tim-walz-first-interview-cnn-takeaways-2024-8"> hurdle</a>. She has yet to release a platform on issues like Ukraine and Russia, China, and North Korea, and it's unclear how many, if any, of her policies will align with President Joe Biden's approach.But either Trump or Harris will likely find foreign policy at the forefront of their presidencies as the world changes — and with some conflicts on the brink or ongoing, these are some of the biggest problems that could be awaiting whoever sits in the Oval Office next.<h2 id="4a2e4a5e-66a8-4f3d-b799-b3bd2dd76299">Russia and the Ukraine war</h2><div type="image" title="Shells sit on the ground in front of an artillery unit actively firing against a blue sky, fire erupting from the barrel." height="5760" width="8640" msid="113169549" hostid="261" sizebytes="3142076"></div>Over two and a half years in, the war in Ukraine has no immediate end in sight. Casualties are abysmal, with recent Western intelligence estimates putting Russian deaths and injuries at <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-suffered-hundreds-thousands-casualties-in-ukraine-western-intelligence-2024-9">over 600,000</a>. Ukrainian forces have likewise suffered high losses, though details are unclear. <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/ukraine-kursk-invasion-russia-hasnt-eased-pressure-off-front-line-2024-9">Ukraine shockingly invaded the Kursk region in Russia</a>, but Russian forces in Ukraine continue advancing.And beyond the war itself, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/most-worrying-military-tech-north-korea-could-get-from-russia-2024-6">North Korean support for Russia</a>, including ammunition, missiles, and other equipment, has created a concerning partnership between America's foes.US politics have often impacted how the country supports Ukraine, engages with its allies and partners on this issue, and how it confronts Russia over the conflict. These issues, like those of the war itself, continue to linger.The US has been impactful, backing Ukraine as its largest single-nation provider of security assistance, but divisions in Congress have made sending more support difficult at times. Additionally, US flip-flopping and repeated hesitation on weapons provisions and use have often been criticized for <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/congress-vote-could-make-break-ukraine-in-war-with-russia-2024-4">hindering Ukraine</a>.Trump and Harris have expressed polar opposite views of supporting Ukraine, which adds uncertainty to Kyiv's future.Trump has said, without reason or evidence, that he'd end the Ukraine war in 24 hours and has repeatedly threatened to undermine the NATO <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trumps-nato-views-threaten-key-to-alliances-strength-article-5-2024-2">alliance's collective defense</a>. Harris has said she "will stand strong with Ukraine and our NATO allies," citing her efforts within the Biden administration to support Kyiv as evidence.<h2 id="4fd37882-1e09-4ef6-9434-96d0b7b9b3cd">An aggressive China</h2><div type="image" title="Three amphibious ferrying vehicles sit in the blue ocean with the cityscape and mountains of New Taipei, Taiwan, in the background." height="2666" width="4000" msid="113169556" hostid="261" sizebytes="808580"></div>Issues in the Indo-Pacific region, especially related to China, Taiwan, and the Philippines, as well as other regional US allies, are likely to be important matters facing the next president as well.The Pentagon has long identified this region as its primary focus, even as other conflicts around the world often <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-navy-has-no-aircraft-carriers-pacific-focus-middle-east-2024-8">pull its attention away</a>, and all branches of the US military have <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-army-training-to-counter-aggressive-insidious-china-top-general-2024-2">stepped up training, exercises, and strategies</a> to deter the US' pacing challenge, China.The ongoing clashes between China and the Philippines in contested waters in the South China Sea are rooted in long-standing disputes and have the potential to escalate into conflict, which could draw the US in through its mutual defense pact.Recently, the commander of US Indo-Pacific Command even suggested it's possible the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-warships-could-protect-pacific-allys-ships-from-china-admiral-2024-8">US could send ships to escort Philippine vessels</a> to protect them from <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/chinas-air-force-harassed-us-ally-aircraft-south-china-sea-2024-8">Chinese harassment</a>, essentially putting the US in the middle of this South China Sea standoff.Another potential flashpoint is a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/red-flags-tell-us-when-chinas-ready-to-invade-taiwan-2024-4">possible Chinese invasion or blockade of Taiwan</a>, which Beijing claims as its own, relentlessly seeking unification. China has repeatedly stated that unification with the autonomous island nation is inevitable, even if it must be done by force. The US military has said that China aims to be ready for <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-missing-how-china-could-seize-taiwan-without-invading-experts-2024-5">such a fight</a> by 2027.Beijing's intimidation tactics, including <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-showed-how-easily-no-notice-it-can-surround-taiwan-2024-6">large military exercises</a> and <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/chinas-drills-a-test-as-well-as-show-of-force-2024-5">constant incursions in Taiwan's waters and airspace</a>, have raised concerns over how Beijing would use its military to force Taiwan into submission.Trump and Harris again differ on the US role in this region. Trump has shown less support for alliances, left ambiguity around US defense commitments to Taiwan, and said Taiwan should pay the US for its support. Harris has repeatedly called out China's aggressive behavior in the region and aligns with Biden on support for Taiwan.<h2 id="12869c13-0a07-4147-83b4-b9f50953cd03">The ongoing crises in the Middle East</h2><div type="image" title="An anti-missile system operates after Iran launched drones and missiles toward Israel." height="2899" width="4346" msid="113169554" hostid="261" sizebytes="610950"></div>Another major issue, like the war in Ukraine, is <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/israel-devastating-airstrikes-hamas-gaza-requesting-more-bombs-weapons-2023-10">Israel's ongoing war in Gaza</a>.Since Hamas carried out its vicious terrorist attack inside Israel on October 7, 2023, killing over 1,000 Israelis, mostly civilians, according to <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.hrw.org/news/2024/07/17/october-7-crimes-against-humanity-war-crimes-hamas-led-groups">Human Rights Watch</a>, the horrors that have unfolded in the region have presented various challenges for the Biden administration.Israel's war, which has involved bombing campaigns and ground operations, has killed over 40,000 Palestinians, mostly civilians, according to estimates from the Hamas-run Gaza Health Ministry. It has also sparked <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/israel-fed-up-massive-protest-strike-demanding-gaza-deal-hostages-2024-9">increased tensions</a> and, in some cases, outright conflicts with Iran and its proxies, often bringing the Middle East just to the brink of all-out war. There have been assassinations, missile barrages, firefights, and more.The Iranian-backed Houthis' <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-navy-aircraft-carrier-eisenhower-planes-in-air-constantly-houthis-2024-2">attacks on commercial shipping lanes</a> in the Red Sea and Gulf of Oman began in response to the war but have evolved into something more over time. The US<a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-navy-carrier-strike-groups-significant-combat-power-middle-east-2024-8"> has sent forces</a>, particularly aircraft carriers and destroyers, to the region to deter Iran and confront the Houthi rebels.Efforts to stop the Houthis have cost the US <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-navy-warships-fired-munitions-substantial-cost-fighting-houthis-2024-8">over $1 billion in weapons</a>, including surface-to-air missiles, land-attack missiles, air-to-air missiles, and air-to-surface weapons. And that figure was just for one carrier strike group and a few extra destroyers.It's unclear when these conflicts will end.Harris' language on Israel and Gaza has mostly echoed Biden's: staunch support for Israel but with repeated calls for a ceasefire. But the White House's continued issues with pro-Palestinian protestors and disagreements with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu are trickling into Harris' campaign.Trump showed unequivocal support for Israel in his first term and made repeated decisions that improved US-Israeli relations. He has said <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-criticizes-israels-photos-of-bombings-in-gaza-2024-3">he supports Israel's war in Gaza</a> and would continue to give Israel the weapons and aid it wants; he also <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/05/27/trump-israel-gaza-policy-donors/">told donors</a> he'd "crush" pro-Palestinian protestors.<h2 id="98b08573-8c71-486a-8dd8-7ccb85ded3e2">Tensions with North Korea</h2><div type="image" title="This undated picture released from North Korea's official Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) on September 16, 2017 shows North Korean leader Kim Jong-Un inspecting a launching drill of the medium-and-long range strategic ballistic rocket Hwasong-12 at an undisclosed location." height="1652" width="2500" msid="113169552" hostid="261" sizebytes="67288"></div>North Korea has bounced back from failed negotiations with the US and the isolation of COVID, establishing new, potentially fruitful connections with Russia through arms deals. Those ties have China engaging Pyongyang as well, leaving it, as one expert said earlier this year, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/north-korea-sitting-pretty-as-russia-china-vie-for-attention-2024-1">"sitting pretty."</a>North Korea has been emboldened, setting in stone its nuclear status and continuing to advance its missile programs while notably strengthening its relationship with US rivals.Additionally, North Korean provocations persist amid growing concerns about <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/the-next-north-korea-crisis-could-come-this-year-2024-5">inter-Korean conflict</a>, which would, as it did in the 1950s, inevitably draw in the US in response.Trump and Harris may be more aligned on their North Korean policy than other issues, but US policy with regard to North Korea has traditionally been a pitfall, with displays of force and demands for it to denuclearize often failing. Negotiations have also been unsuccessful.In shaping US policy, the next president could also face challenges with South Korea's president Yoon Suk Yeol, a hawk who has taken a harsher stance on North Korea than the previous administration, requiring the delicate navigation of bilateral relations.<div type="image" title="Former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris." height="1000" width="2000" msid="113169559" hostid="261" sizebytes="125244"></div>Both Trump and Harris find themselves running for president at a particular tense time in global politics. Amid a number of challenges at home, US attention is being pulled in a variety of directions.Whoever wins the 2024 presidential election this November will have to consider how to manage these issues along with the US position on the world stage. And their decisions could impact not just the US, but allies, partners, and adversaries as well.

This is the conflict-ridden, tension-filled world that the next US president may have to face

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Trump has tapped Pete Hegseth, an Army veteran and Fox News host, to be secretary of defense.</li><li>BI reviewed Hegseth's past statements for clues on how he might lead the Defense Department.</li></ul>US President-elect <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/donald-trump-white-house-staff-cabinet-picks-list-2024-11">Donald Trump</a> has tapped Pete Hegseth, a Fox &amp; Friends host and US Army National Guard veteran, to be secretary of defense.Hegseth is a combat veteran and conservative commentator who gained clout during Trump's first term and successfully <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-listened-fox-host-pete-hegesth-over-his-secretary-defense-2019-11">pushed for</a> pardons and rank reinstatement in three war crimes cases over the objections of top military officials. He has been skeptical of the US's support for the NATO alliance and an embattled <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-pentagon-pick-pete-hegseth-criticized-us-involvement-ukraine-aid-2024-11">Ukraine</a>, while advocating for full support for Israel.Trump announced Hegseth's nomination on Tuesday night, calling him a "warrior for the troops and country" and a "true believer in America First." His selection is a sign Trump is focused on purging the military's top ranks of purported "woke generals," along the lines of the external "warrior board" reviews first <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.wsj.com/politics/national-security/trump-draft-executive-order-would-create-board-to-purge-generals-7ebaa606?mod=national-security_news_article_pos3">reported</a> by The Wall Street Journal.Hegseth was considered for Veterans Affairs secretary during Trump's first term and faced pushback from veterans group leaders. This time is no different."Hegseth is undoubtedly the least qualified nominee for SecDef in American history. And the most overtly political. Brace yourself, America," Paul Rieckhoff, the founder of Independent Veterans of America, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://x.com/PaulRieckhoff/status/1856502867126857911">said</a>.<div type="image" title="Pete Hegseth" height="2555" width="3600" msid="115272720" hostid="261" sizebytes="482454"></div>Hegseth is a Fox News fixture known for his military service and weighing in on culture war controversies. He served in Iraq and Afghanistan but has less leadership, national security, and Department of Defense experience than Trump's former defense secretaries."I confess I didn't know who he was until 20 minutes ago," Rep. Adam Smith, the top Democrat on House Armed Services, told reporters Tuesday night. Adam Kinzinger, a former lieutenant colonel in the Air National Guard and a Republican who left Congress after clashing with Trump, said the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://x.com/AdamKinzinger/status/1856491538920157477">nomination</a> is "the most hilariously predictably stupid thing."Hegseth was among a group of US National Guard members who had their orders<a target="_blank" class="" href="https://x.com/JimLaPorta/status/1856492437402947704"> to secure then President-elect Joe Biden's inauguration</a> revoked after the January 6 insurrection. Hegseth said on "The Shawn Ryan Show" he was dismissed because he was "deemed an extremist" over his tattoo of a Jerusalem cross; he also has a tattoo of a Christian motto that dates to the Crusades and has been adopted by the alt-right.When asked for comment, the Trump transition team referred Business Insider to Trump's announcement. Hegseth didn't respond to BI's request for comment on Wednesday.If Hegseth is confirmed, he'll come to the Pentagon at a perilous time for a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/conflicts-and-tensions-the-next-president-could-face-2024-9">US military stretched thin by conflicts and tensions across the world</a>. Here's where he stands on some key issues.<h2 id="e801149c-517d-4369-944b-247efc37a121">Hegseth has criticized women serving in combat roles and diversity in the military</h2><div type="image" title="U.S. Army Spc. Sammantha Ohm assigned to 5th Squadron, 1st Calvary Regiment, Delta Co, 1st Infantry Brigade Combat Team, 11th Airborne Division pulls security on the M2HB .50-caliber machine gun during the Joint Pacific Multinational Readiness Center 24-02 exercise at Donnelly Training Area, Alaska, Feb. 17, 2024." height="4219" width="6329" msid="115272725" hostid="261" sizebytes="885108"></div>During a recent interview on <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DoN5ovwB8s4">"The Shawn Ryan Show" podcast</a>, he said women serving in combat roles hurt the military. "Everything about men and women serving together makes the situation more complicated, and complication in combat, that means casualties are worse," Hegseth said, adding that minority and white men can perform similar tasks that women can't. By allowing women to serve, "we've changed the standards in putting them there, which means you've changed the capability of that unit." <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/women-in-us-military-history-2019-2">All US military combat roles opened to women in 2015</a>.Hegseth is highly critical of "woke" diversity and equity policies. "The dumbest phrase on planet Earth in the military is our diversity is our strength," he said on "The Shawn Ryan Show," adding, "Any general that was involved, any general, admiral, whatever, that was involved in any of the DEI/woke shit has got to go."He has called for shifting away from diversity and inclusivity in the US military, whose highest ranks remain overwhelmingly male and white. Branches of the military face issues fulfilling recruitment goals, specifically with <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.military.com/daily-news/2024/06/14/armys-recruiting-problem-male.html#:~:text=Since%202013%2C%20male%20enlistments%20have,around%2010%2C000%20recruits%20each%20year">lower numbers of white male recruits in recent years</a>.<h2 id="0522ec27-5fc0-47a0-81ea-2e4fe1dd158a">Hegseth is critical of NATO and has flip-flopped on Ukraine</h2><div type="image" title="A tank sitting on a barren grassy field fires with a cloudy grey sky in the background." height="5504" width="8046" msid="115272714" hostid="261" sizebytes="1688200"></div>Hegseth has echoed a growing opinion among Republicans that questions <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-pentagon-pick-pete-hegseth-criticized-us-involvement-ukraine-aid-2024-11">whether it's in the US's interest to support Ukraine's war of self-defense against Russia or the larger security of America's European allies</a>. He's also said Ukraine's war for its existence pales in comparison to the war on "woke" in America.In February 2022, Hegseth defended Trump's controversial comments describing Russian leader Vladimir Putin's invasion of Ukraine as "savvy" and "genius," suggesting Trump was just attempting to "troll" American media. Throughout the war, Hegseth has shifted stances, calling Putin a "war criminal" and <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wxDe0KtJJio">criticizing Biden for not getting Ukraine military aid quickly enough</a>. He told Fox News in March 2022, "What's at stake is repelling an authoritarian who basically is saying 'I want the Soviet Union back, I want Ukraine back, I want Kyiv back.'" He has <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trumps-nato-views-threaten-key-to-alliances-strength-article-5-2024-2">criticized the NATO alliance</a>, saying the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/these-nato-frontline-countries-are-readying-for-war-with-russia-2024-3">US's European allies need to lead efforts to defend their borders</a>. In his recent book, "War on Warriors," Hegseth called some NATO allies "outdated, outgunned, invaded, and impotent." He wrote,"Why should America, the European 'emergency contact number' for the past century, listen to self-righteous and impotent nations asking us to honor outdated and one-sided defense arrangements they no longer live up to?"<h2 id="71858f8f-1362-4561-81bc-a85b00383c38">He's a staunch supporter of Israel </h2><div type="image" title="Trump with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in 2020." height="1500" width="2250" msid="115272721" hostid="261" sizebytes="198048"></div>Hegseth has repeatedly advocated for Israel, including in his coverage of the war in Gaza. He has supported <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-navy-burns-through-key-missiles-needed-for-china-fight-2024-10">Israel striking back against Iran and its proxies</a> and pushed against calls for a cease-fire.He interviewed Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu earlier this year, asking about Trump's support for Israel during his first term. And in November 2023, he criticized pro-Palestinian protesters demonstrating in Washington. In a 2016 interview, he said Israel wasn't "a historical land that can be dismissed," emphasizing <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.timesofisrael.com/trump-taps-fox-news-host-who-said-us-must-stand-by-strong-ally-israel-to-head-pentagon/">how important it is for the US to stand by Israel as its ally</a>. <h2 id="ccea315c-2018-4c38-94b7-711ee1d6d51a">Hegseth's stance on China is murky</h2>China could be a top priority for Hegseth if he's confirmed. The Pentagon has called China its "pacing challenge" and has raised alarms on <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-military-china-missile-problem-getting-worse-2024-5">Beijing's meteoric military growth</a>. On "The Shawn Ryan Show," Hegseth said China was "building an army specifically dedicated to defeating" the US, pointing to how its <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-and-japan-teaming-up-to-defeat-hypersonic-missiles-2024-5">hypersonic missiles</a> could take US aircraft carriers out quickly in a conflict as a major concern. <div type="image" title="Chinese aircraft carriers Liaoning and Shandong in formation exercise in the South China Sea in late October 2024." height="2907" width="4948" msid="115272712" hostid="261" sizebytes="1330486"></div>His comments on China's economic influence echo Trump's talking points. "They want to corner the market completely on the technological future. We can't even drive our cars without the stuff we need out of China these days. So China has a full spectrum long-term view of not just regional but global domination and we have our heads up our asses," he said on the podcast. If confirmed, Hegseth would lead the Defense Department at a pivotal moment in the Asia-Pacific region. The US has assessed that <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/red-flags-tell-us-when-chinas-ready-to-invade-taiwan-2024-4">China wants its military ready to seize Taiwan by 2027</a>, and that US military forces need to be ready for a potential conflict with China by then.

How Trump's Army veteran pick for Pentagon chief, Fox & Friends' Pete Hegseth, sees the world

<keyword id="22003705" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Indian-traders" source="keywords">Indian traders</keyword> involved in <keyword id="22003703" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="border-trade" source="keywords">border trade</keyword> with China through the <keyword id="22003704" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Lipulekh-pass" source="keywords">Lipulekh pass</keyword> in Pithoragarh district since 1992, have requested the central government to take up the issue of resumption of border trade through this route with Beijing. The trade route was closed rather suddenly after the outbreak of the Covid-19 pandemic in 2019, forcing Indian traders to return from the <keyword id="22003706" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Taklakot-mart" source="keywords">Taklakot mart</keyword> in Tibet leaving behind their woollen products. Five years have passed but the route has not been opened, an organisation of border traders in Dharchula said. The traders who belong to the <keyword id="22005864" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Bhotia-tribe" source="keywords">Bhotia tribe</keyword> started to raise their demand for reopening of the trade route through Lipulekh after China recently began the process of implementing a pact, in which it had agreed to open all 14 trade passes with Nepal. The implementation of the agreement inked by China and Nepal in December, 2022 began on May 25 this year, when China opened Piangi pass situated in Dolpa district of eastern Nepal, president of Bharat Tibetan Simant Vyapar Samiti, Dharchula Jeewan Singh Rongkali said. Three more passes along the Indo-Tibet border in the western region of Nepal that fall in the districts of Humla, Bajang and Darchula will be opened on June 20, 30 and 25 respectively, he said. "We have so far sent 22 applications to the government of India requesting it to take up with the Chinese authorities the reopening of the trade route through Lipulekh pass but have received no response so far," Rongkali said. According to Rongkali, Indian tribal traders from Dharchula alone have left trading items worth Rs 15 lakh in <keyword id="22005865" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="taklakot" source="keywords">Taklakot</keyword> Mart of Tibet at the time of closure of border trade in 2019, following the Covid-19 pandemic. "We have no information if our stored goods are safe or in a state of decay. They were stored in plywood covers at the time of closure of trade," Rongkali said. "We want trade with China to be resumed through Lipulekh pass but if for some reason it is not possible then the traders should be given 15 days' time to go to Taklakot to ring back their goods," he said. Goods of over 450 Indian tribal traders have been lying there for the last 5 years, he said. According to Rongkali, over 450 Indian traders used to supply essential goods to villagers of over 45 villages of western Tibet through this trade route since 1992. "Out of over 1.5 crore trade annually, we have paid lakhs of rupees towards customs duty and other taxes to the government of India," said Rongkali. China announced in the year 2022 that it will build trans Himalayan multi-dimensional connectivity with Nepal to restructure the road and communication network with that country, Rongkali said. "As China has not given permission to open our passes along the Indo-China border, we have an apprehension that the mart made for Indian traders in Gakkhu town of Taklakot could be handed over to Nepalese traders," said Rongkali.

Indian traders demand resumption of border trade with China through Lipulekh pass

India was the fourth largest military spender globally in 2023 with an expenditure of USD 83.6 billion, behind the US, China and Russia, according to a report by an independent international think-tank. The report by Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) shared on its website in April also said the "rise" in global military spending last year can be attributed "primarily to the ongoing war in Ukraine and escalating geopolitical tensions in Asia and Oceania and the Middle East". The military expenditure went up in all five geographical regions, with major spending increases recorded in Europe, Asia and Oceania and the Middle East, it said. The report comes amid ongoing conflicts in various parts of the world such as the ones involving Israel-Hamas, Iran-Israel, Russian-Ukraine besides volatility in the Red Sea region. "World military expenditure increased for the ninth consecutive year in 2023, reaching a total of USD 2443 billion. The 6.8 per cent increase in 2023 was the steepest year-on-year rise since 2009 and pushed global spending to the highest level SIPRI has ever recorded," according to the report. The <keyword id="21404979" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="world-military-burden" source="keywords">world military burden</keyword> -- defined as military spending as a percentage of global gross domestic product (GDP) -- increased to 2.3 per cent in 2023. Average military expenditure as a share of government expenditure rose by 0.4 percentage points to 6.9 per cent in 2023 and world military spending per person was the highest since 1990 at USD 306, it added. With military expenditure of USD 83.6 billion in 2023, India was the "fourth largest spender globally". Indian spending was up by 4.2 per cent from 2022 and by 44 per cent from 2014. The increase in India's military spending was "mainly a result of growing personnel and operations costs" which made up almost 80 per cent of the total military budget in 2023, the <keyword id="20911352" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="SIPRI-report" source="keywords">SIPRI report</keyword> claimed. "This aligns with the government's priority to strengthen the operational readiness of the armed forces amid ongoing tensions with China and Pakistan. In comparison, capital outlays to fund military procurement remained relatively stable at around 22 per cent of the budget in 2023," it said. A total of 75 per cent of these outlays went towards equipments produced domestically, which was the highest level ever and up from 68 per cent in the previous year. The continued shift towards domestic procurement reflects India's goal of becoming self-reliant in arms development and production, the think-tank said in its repot fact sheet shared on its website. The Indian Army has maintained that deployment of its troops and other elements along the LAC is "extremely robust" and "balanced". The eastern <keyword id="21271073" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Ladakh-border-standoff" source="keywords">Ladakh border standoff</keyword> erupted on May 5, 2020, following a violent clash in the Pangong Lake area. The ties between India and China nose-dived significantly following the clash in the Galwan Valley in June 2020 that marked the most serious military conflict between the two sides in decades. SIPRI is an independent international institute dedicated to research into conflict, armaments, arms control and disarmament. Established in 1966, it provides data, analysis and recommendations based on open sources to policymakers, researchers, media and the interested public. The Stockholm-based think-tank monitors developments in military expenditure worldwide and maintains the most comprehensive, consistent and extensive publicly available data source on military expenditure, according to its online portal. The US military spending was USD 916 billion in 2023, which was 2.3 per cent more than in 2022 and 9.9 per cent more than in 2014, the report said. The US remained by far the largest spender in the world, allocating 3.1 times more to the military than the second largest spender China. "The biggest percentage increase among all US military spending categories in 2023 was for 'research, development, test and evaluation (RDT&amp;E)". The Stockholm-based think-tank also said in its report that Ukraine was the "eighth largest spender" in 2023 after a spending surge of 51 per cent to reach USD 64.8 billion. This gave Ukraine "a military burden of 37 per cent and represented 58 per cent of total government spending". "Ukraine's military spending in 2023 was 59 per cent the size of Russia's. However, Ukraine also received at least USD 35 billion in military aid during the year, including USD 25.4 billion from the US. Combined, this aid and Ukraine's own military spending were equivalent to about 91 per cent of Russian spending," the report claimed. According to the report, Russia's military spending increased by 24 per cent to an estimated USD 109 billion in 2023. "China, the world's second largest military spender, allocated an estimated USD 296 billion to the military in 2023, an increase of 6 per cent from 2022. This was the 29th consecutive year-on-year rise in China's military expenditure. China accounted for half of total military spending across the Asia and Oceania region. Several of China's neighbours have linked their own spending increases to China's rising military expenditure," the Stockholm-based think-tank claimed in its report. In 2023, the 31 <keyword id="20763732" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="NATO-members" source="keywords">NATO members</keyword> accounted for USD 1,341 billion, equal to 55 per cent of the world's military expenditure, the report said. 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India fourth largest military spender globally in 2023: SIPRI report

<ul class="summary-list"><li>China's Xi Jinping negotiated a truce with India's leader, Narendra Modi.</li><li>They agreed to a patrolling arrangement on a disputed Himalayan border.</li></ul>At the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-hosts-brics-summit-defy-west-us-economy-china-dollar-2024-10">BRICS summit</a> in Russia this week, China's leader Xi Jinping and India's Prime Minister Narendra Modi shook hands for the first time in five years.The symbolic moment came after a deal was struck to resolve a long-standing feud between the Asian superpowers.In the lead-up to the summit, the countries announced they had reached a patrolling agreement that would reduce tensions along a disputed <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/india-china-buying-new-light-tanks-for-himalayan-mountain-warfare-2023-6">Himalayan border.</a>The dispute had led to deadly hand-to-hand combat in recent years, taking the lives of 20 Indian troops and at least four Chinese soldiers.After their meeting at the summit hosted by Russia's President Vladimir Putin, Xi and Modi said they would continue discussions on resolving the issue.<h2 id="997cee52-7fd6-4283-bf77-94e40a12b5cc">A setback for the US</h2>Some analysts believe it is a development that's unlikely to be welcomed in Washington, DC.The US has sought to recruit India to help it contain China's growing regional aggression alongside other members of the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue, a security pact that also includes Japan and Australia."So definitely, this is a setback for the United States of America's Indo-Pacific outlook, given the kind of rapprochement we are seeing in India-China relations, and particularly India, China and Russia coming together," Jagannath Panda, head of the Stockholm Center for South Asian and Indo-Pacific Affairs, told Business Insider."Putin, Xi, and Modi meeting definitely signals that there is a kind of understanding under the carpet that has happened, which is quite subtle," he said.It's an assessment echoed by Zhiqun Zhu, professor of political science and international affairs at Bucknell University."The thaw in India-China relations is a boon to both countries. This is particularly significant for China because India may now be less inclined to confront Beijing as part of Quad," Zhu told <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.voanews.com/a/india-china-deal-raises-questions-about-us-indo-pacific-strategy-/7838623.html">Voice of America. </a>"In this sense, the effectiveness of Quad would be diluted with a less enthusiastic India."<h2 id="baf534cf-4366-41b8-b9ef-d526ffe91fda">Competition between Asia's rival powers intensifies</h2>Tensions have been building between China and India for years.As the two biggest economies in Asia, the countries have long jostled for regional power, with the dispute over the Himalayan border a flashpoint that led to clashes in 2020, 2021, and 2022.Amid the stand-off, Chinese vessels have reportedly surveilled the Indian Ocean in <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.reuters.com/world/india/another-chinese-research-vessel-spotted-off-india-fuelling-unease-2024-03-11/">what experts told Reuters</a> was a likely intelligence-gathering operation, while India has strengthened its security ties with China's chief global rival, the US.In 2017 India played a key role in restarting the Quad, an alliance designed as a bulwark against growing Chinese influence and aggression in the Asia-Pacific region.But India has long sought to balance its relationship with rival superpowers the US and China, and does not at this point want to tie itself too closely to either side, say analysts.In addition to being a member of the Quad Alliance, it is a founding member of the BRICS, an <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-economy-asia-countries-flaunt-russia-putin-diplomacy-relationship-brics-2024-9">association of non-Western economies </a>that China has sought to transform into an alternative global economic power base to the US.<div type="image" title="India-China border" height="683" width="1024" msid="114594056" hostid="261" sizebytes="158650"></div>"This explains why it remains part of multilateral groupings with contradictory goals," said Praveen Donthi, a South Asia analyst with the Eurasia Group in Washington, DC, pointing to both its membership of the US-aligned Quad and China-dominated BRIC group.The truce comes with China on the back foot diplomatically, said Panda, pointing to its damaged relations with Europe and the US after its support f<a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-and-china-anti-us-coalition-is-growing-more-threatening-2024-9">or Russia's invasion of Ukraine.</a>"One could draw a conclusion at this point that probably the Chinese are more interested to rebuild the ties with India than the other way round," said Panda.He said there's also the possibility that Xi has reached an agreement with Modi behind the scenes for India to remain silent if China acts on its longstanding ambition to seize back control of Taiwan.Such a move would likely draw in the US and its other regional allies, who have pledged to help defend<a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-taiwan-drone-swarms-uav-us-playing-catch-up-production-2024-10"> Taiwan's independence.</a>"I think China's bigger ambition and target is the Taiwan issue, and therefore they would not really like to continue the kind of tensions they were engaged in with India for the last three to four years," he said."Therefore, they would like to rebuild, and they would like to ensure that India does not react to the Taiwan issue so sensitively."In any case, its a setback in US attempts to include India in a deeper security alliance, he said."For a long time, the US has tried to develop security and defense ties with India," said Panda.For the time being, a truce suits both Russian and Chinese interests, Rahul Bhatia, an analyst at the Eurasia Group, said. But, he added, tensions remain.He said that though both parties have opened discussions about the border dispute, the underlying problem remains unresolved, and future flare-ups are likely.Donthi said the progress between the leaders could also be derailed if tensions between the US and China increase."This comes as a relief after four years of eyeball-to-eyeball troop deployment in the Himalayas. However, it's only the beginning," he said.

Xi undercut the West by negotiating a truce in China's long feud with India

Tensions in Middle-East are rapidly inching closer to their zenith, with Iran firing about 200 ballistic missiles at Israel late yesterday night. In response today, the Indian markets witnessed their worst decline in two months, with Sensex dipping around 1,769 points, or 2.1% to close at 82,497.10. <keyword id="19896381" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Nifty" source="keywords">Nifty</keyword> followed suit and was also down by 2.1% to close the day at 25,250.10. As a result, about Rs 11 lakh crore were wiped off the market today. The decline was broad-based, with sectors like realty (dipped by over 4%) auto, and energy suffering the most. Broader indices also fell, losing nearly 2% each. The Hang Seng index, which had rallied over 14% during the last week, largely on the back of various stimulus measures announced by the central bank to stir consumption in the Chinese economy, also slumped around 1.47%. With the possibility of an all-out war between Iran and Israel looming on the horizon, threatening to happen sooner than later, markets are expected to remain volatile in near future. Even the India VIX, seen as a gauge of uncertainty and investor fear in the market, jumped over 9% during the day. The war could throw a huge spanner on India's crude oil import plans. As of August 2024, about 44.6% of India's crude oil imports came from <keyword id="19904316" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="middle-east" source="keywords">Middle East</keyword>. Israel has already promised significant retaliation, in response to Iran's attack in the days to come. And the strong possibility of a full-blown Israeli attack in Middle East, particularly major oil fields in Iran has sent the crude oil prices surging. Closer home, ONGC (Oil and Natural Gas Corporation) was amongst the biggest gainers on NSE today. <h2>Should Indian investors worry? </h2>But is the impending action in Middle-East the only reason behind today's drastic fall? Vishnu Kant Upadhyay, AVP, Research &amp; Advisory at Master Capital Services notes that while it plays a significant role, other factors are also at play. "Recent regulatory changes in the F&amp;O segment by SEBI is expected to impact trading volumes, as retail participation may decline due to the increased contract size and limits on weekly expiries. Meanwhile, strength in the Chinese market, following the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) stimulus package, has also diverted foreign investment to China, where valuations remain more attractive compared to India", he noted. But Upadhyay believes that the extension of losses in Indian markets wont last long. "From a technical perspective, as long as prices hold above the 25,250–25,100 zone, any decline could present an opportunity to build fresh long positions. A stock-specific approach is advisable, with sectors such as Oil, IT, PSU Banks, Metals, and Chemicals likely to outperform in the coming days", he adds. Shrikant Chouhan, Head Equity Research, Kotak Securities observes that as long as market is trading below 25,365/82,800, the weak sentiment is likely to continue. On the down side, it could slip till 25,150-25,025/82,200-82,000 as well. On the other side, one quick technical pullback is likely if the market succeeds to trade above 25,365/82,800. Above the same, it could bounce back till 25,475-25,500/83,100-83,300. The current market texture is volatile hence; level based trading would be the ideal strategy for the day traders. <h2><keyword id="20760178" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="mutual-fund-investors" source="keywords">Mutual fund investors</keyword>, stay put</h2>In the aftermath of a <keyword id="19968045" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="market-correction" source="keywords">market correction</keyword>, most mutual fund investors often face a critical decision- should they stop their SIPs (<keyword id="21047553" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Systematic-Investment-Plans" source="keywords">Systematic Investment Plans</keyword>) or to view the downturn as a valuable opportunity to acquire more mutual fund units? By continuing SIPs during such downturns, investors can take advantage of 'rupee-cost averaging,' i.e. accumulating more units when prices are down. This approach not only lowers the average cost per unit, but also positions the portfolio for greater returns when the market eventually recovers, and softens the impact of short-term volatility. Swapnil Aggarwal, Director, VSRK Capital explains that alongside maintaining regular investments, revisiting your asset allocation is also essential in these turbulent times. A well-diversified portfolio, that balances equities with safer assets like bonds can withstand market fluctuations more effectively. You can consider shifting some investments into bond funds or other stable instruments, which can provide a cushion against further declines. <h2>What happens next? </h2>While the immediate impact of a market correction may lead to declines in the NAV (Net Asset Value) of mutual funds, disciplined investors can view this as a moment to reassess their strategies. Focusing on your <keyword id="20908416" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="long-term-financial-goals" source="keywords">long-term financial goals</keyword> will let you turn market volatility into opportunity! The market will remain keenly focused on the evolving situation in the Middle East. What will also be equally important are the US monthly jobs data due tomorrow, which could determine the size of Fed's next interest rate move in November.

Nifty, Sensex in freefall today as Iran mounts attack on Israel. Here's what experts think you should do

<ul class="summary-list"><li>A host of warning signs point to China preparing for military action against Taiwan.</li><li>Experts say China could be readying for a showdown over the island.</li></ul>Tensions between China and Taiwan are reaching a boiling point, and many signs point to Chinese military action to seize the island by force, possibly in just a few years.While a Chinese invasion of Taiwan would be an incredibly complex and dangerous operation, influential China watchers are sounding the alarms over preparations almost certainly needed to seize the island — a buildup of China's naval forces, energy and food stockpiles, and large-scale military drills just off its coast."I don't think they lack for anything that they need," Lyle Goldstein, director of Asia engagement at Defense Priorities, said of China's forces. "You could always ask the question, 'Could they be more ready?' and I suppose there are some certain areas, but I, for a long time, maintained they have what they need to undertake the campaign."<h2>What China needs for an all-out attack</h2><div type="image" title="China navy aircraft carrier Liaoning" height="789" width="1200" msid="109647308" hostid="261" sizebytes="87468"></div>China has pushed a rapid modernization of its armed forces over the past two decades that has alarmed US military officials and opened China leader Xi Jinping's options for how to reunify Taiwan, the democratic island of 24 million that Beijing views as a breakaway. China's navy, for example, has <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-navy-shrinking-china-biggest-fleet-shipbuilding-taiwan-2024-4">surpassed</a> the size of the US fleet and its shipbuilding capacity is easily the largest in the world.But there are questions around the quality of China's warships despite the sheer numbers, and whether it has the capacity for an amphibious assault against Taiwan's advanced weapons.Taiwan's Ministry of Defense <a target="_blank" href="https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/front/archives/2020/09/01/2003742623">assessed</a> in 2021 that China "lacks the landing vehicles and logistics required to launch an incursion into Taiwan." The US Department of Defense <a target="_blank" href="https://media.defense.gov/2020/Sep/01/2002488689/-1/-1/1/2020-DOD-CHINA-MILITARY-POWER-REPORT-FINAL.PDF">largely concurred</a>, and the US-China Economic and Security Review Commission <a target="_blank" href="https://www.uscc.gov/sites/default/files/2020-12/Chapter_4--Taiwan.pdf">wrote</a> something similar in its 2020 report, noting that while China had a "shortage of amphibious lift, or ships and aircraft capable of transporting troops the [Chinese military] needs to successfully subjugate the island," the PLA was looking into using civilian vessels to supplement that.Chinese ships and aircraft that try to invade or blockade the island into submission would be highly vulnerable to Taiwan's arsenal of advanced weapons like F-16 fighter jets, Patriot missile batteries, and Harpoon anti-ship missiles. The question is whether China has built an invasion force that can sustain the damage from these weapons in what would be the first amphibious invasion in seven decades. Others have seen signs that China is corralling the civilian shipping needed to meet the heavy material needs of an amphibious invasion armada.Thomas Shugart, a former US Navy submarine commander who's now an adjunct senior fellow at the Center for a New American Security think tank, <a target="_blank" href="https://warontherocks.com/2021/08/mind-the-gap-how-chinas-civilian-shipping-could-enable-a-taiwan-invasion/">wrote</a> for War on the Rocks in August 2021 that "Chinese leaders have already begun organizing civilian shipping into auxiliary units of the military," highlighting examples of large roll-on/roll-off ferries being employed in amphibious assault exercises, something Chinese media later confirmed, and adding that the civilian vessels were carrying both Marine Corps and ground force units.While these ferries aren't necessarily designed for landing assault troops, Shugart noted, they are built to carry a large number of people, load ground forces quickly and with little warning, disembark their troops, and return for more; the US military also has fast-transport vessels and cargo ships to support operations."The evidence shows that these fleets are all ready to mobilize, really at a moment's notice," Goldstein said. "China has the biggest ports in the world and they're full of these ships, so putting them together into fleets to make this attack would be very quick, within days."<div type="image" title="A China Coast Guard vessel and China Coast Guard personnel on a rubber boat." height="2602" width="3911" msid="109647310" hostid="261" sizebytes="765296"></div>Xi is a year-and-a-half into his third term as China's leader, and many of his recent moves suggest China is preparing for war. Xi successfully consolidated control over Hong Kong in 2020, and may have his eyes on a bigger prize.In March, China <a target="_blank" href="https://www.reuters.com/world/china/china-drops-peaceful-reunification-reference-taiwan-raises-defence-spending-by-2024-03-05/">dropped</a> "peaceful reunification" when referring to Taiwan and announced a 7.2% increase in defense spending. Food and energy security, like petroleum reserves, have been stockpiled for years. New laws around civilian mobilization and economic self-reliance indicate Xi is preparing his people and the Chinese economy for the possibility of war. Military forces are being deployed nearer to Taiwan than ever, effectively shortening Taiwan's reaction time. Stockpiling of <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-rocket-force-corruption-us-cannot-lower-guard-2024-1">China's rocket force</a>, too, suggests it would have more than enough missiles and rockets to target Taiwan.Earlier this month, Mike Studeman, former commander of the Office of Naval Intelligence and director for intelligence for US Indo-Pacific Command, <a target="_blank" href="https://warontherocks.com/2024/04/china-is-battening-down-for-the-gathering-storm-over-taiwan/">wrote</a> in War on the Rocks: "There is no apparent countdown to D-day for initiating a blockade or invasion, but major strategic indicators clearly show that General Secretary Xi Jinping is still preparing his country for a showdown. Developments under way suggest Taiwan will face an existential crisis in single-digit years, most likely in the back half of the 2020s or front half of the 2030s."Some experts assess China would lean into the element of surprise, a core facet in their military doctrine. One common concern is that as China's military exercises around Taiwan have grown in frequency and size, the line between exercise and potential attack is becoming blurred. "The bad news" with such a scenario, Dean Cheng, a senior advisor to the China program at the US Institute of Peace, said, "is they go to war with what they have on hand, because they probably haven't had a chance to deploy more forces forward, stock up munitions, get everything loaded and ready to go. How important is surprise versus how important is being able to sustain the operation?"That ploy resembles the massive Russian <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/satellite-photos-show-russian-troops-near-ukraine-amid-invasion-fears-2022-1">build-up</a> on Ukraine's borders prior to the 2022 invasion that officials had <a target="_blank" href="https://tass.com/defense/1389547">claimed</a> was for field exercises.Goldstein's estimate is that while it's still risky, "they have what they need, and they're ready to undertake" an attack. "I don't think we'll have a lot of warning," he added, noting a sudden set of actions that only unfolds over a period of hours would be more likely than many other clearer, long-term signs.<a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/chinas-fake-us-warships-desert-help-it-threaten-us-navy-2024-1">US involvement</a> also factors in. "There is a possibility of American intervention which then goes to the question of how well can China conceal its preparations for an invasion?" Cheng said.<h2>A Chinese ring of steel</h2><div type="image" title="Xi Jinping" height="1359" width="2000" msid="109647313" hostid="261" sizebytes="132198"></div>Experts, as well as US and Taiwan lawmakers and military officials, have long debated about the readiness of the People's Liberation Army as China's military is known."The PLA's modernization plan, we think, is still on track, and is aimed at a 2027 period," Cheng explained, with goals of being a fully modernized fighting force by then.Before then, there's a higher risk that an assault attempt would fail or shatter Beijing's forces. "The PLA isn't going to make the call, however, about whether to invade Taiwan, that's going to be up to Chinese leadership, Xi in particular, and the rest of the Politburo Standing Committee," top leadership in the CCP, Cheng said.China has indicated it will use force if necessary, but a full-scale invasion likely has dire consequences for China. Other actions — such as an air and maritime blockade, as noted in <a target="_blank" href="https://media.defense.gov/2023/Oct/19/2003323409/-1/-1/1/2023-MILITARY-AND-SECURITY-DEVELOPMENTS-INVOLVING-THE-PEOPLES-REPUBLIC-OF-CHINA.PDF">DoD's China report</a>, limited force campaigns, air and missile campaigns, and seizure of Taiwan's smaller occupied islands — could be preferable, and China boats much of those capabilities already.A blockade, for example, would give the US and its allies more time to respond than a sudden, bolt-from-the-blue surprise attack. "It's less risky in the sense that you're not going to have necessarily thousands killed, but you're giving Taiwan and the Americans time to organize a response," Cheng said.There's also precedent at play: The US blockaded Cuba after it detected a deployment of Soviet nuclear missiles to the island in 1962 in what would become the Cold War's most dangerous crisis.US involvement in defending Taiwan from China is a major unknown. A war game <a target="_blank" href="https://www.csis.org/analysis/first-battle-next-war-wargaming-chinese-invasion-taiwan">analysis</a> from the Center for Strategic and International Studies from January 2023 reported that in most of the 24 runs, the US, Taiwan, and Japan defeated a conventional amphibious invasion by China, but suffered heavy and severe losses.But with all of this comes the consideration that Xi's biggest priority is to reunify with Taiwan. As US Army Maj. Kyle Amonson and retired US Coast Guard Capt. Dane Egli <a target="_blank" href="https://media.defense.gov/2023/Apr/24/2003205865/-1/-1/1/07-AMONSON%20&amp;%20EGLI_FEATURE%20IWD.PDF">wrote</a> in 2023, much of when Xi decides to invade Taiwan comes down to how he wants to maintain his legacy in the Chinese Communist Party and Chinese society, as well as what accomplishing such a feat would do for him.<h2>Scene for a showdown</h2><div type="image" title="A supporter of Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) holds up a placard at an election campaign on January 12, 2024, in Tainan, Taiwan." height="3344" width="5014" msid="109647316" hostid="261" sizebytes="1580614"></div>Cross-Strait relations have soured in recent years, especially with the <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/what-taiwans-election-results-mean-for-relations-with-china-us-2024-1">Democratic Progressive Party</a> in power since 2016, raising worries that military action for reunification is more likely and other options, such as diplomacy, aren't. The worst case scenario is a <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-building-military-scale-not-seen-wwii-invade-taiwan-aquilino-2024-3">full-scale invasion</a>, which would unleash all-out war and potentially trigger responses from the US, Japan, the Philippines, and others.In the late 2000s and early 2010s, Beijing's economy was booming, Taiwanese students were traveling to the mainland for school work, and Chinese leadership likely believed Taiwan would eventually accept reunification."But the state of the economy and society, and the Chinese crackdown on Hong Kong, as well as other elements such as American actions, led Beijing to think time is no longer on their side," Cheng said. "Tensions are definitely higher now, but where I would draw the line is that it doesn't necessarily mean Beijing is about to launch an invasion."<div type="image" title="Taiwan China amphibious landing military exercise" height="1634" width="2500" msid="109647318" hostid="261" sizebytes="237990"></div>Goldstein said that in tracking Chinese media closely, calls for reunification are more frequent and heated. "I am concerned that China may see some reason to go earlier rather than later," he explained.Xi himself <a target="_blank" href="https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/front/archives/2023/11/17/2003809289">told</a> US President Joe Biden in late 2023, "Look, peace is… all well and good, but at some point we need to move towards resolution."

The red flags that will tell us when China's actually ready to invade Taiwan

<ul class="summary-list"><li>US lithium production is set to spike with new projects advancing in Nevada and California.</li><li>The expansion aims to reduce reliance on China for critical minerals and electric-vehicle batteries.</li></ul>The US is on the cusp of a lithium boom after years of laying the groundwork for an electric-vehicle supply chain that doesn't rely on China.Within the past month, the Biden administration has approved the Rhyolite Ridge lithium-boron mine in Nevada and loaned $2.6 billion to the company developing Thacker Pass, another lithium mine in the state. A project in California's Salton Sea started construction earlier this year. The three sites, expected to come online between 2026 and 2028, would massively increase the US's lithium supply. Since the 1960s, only one site, Silver Peak, in Nevada, has operated in the country.The expansion is aimed at curbing China's control over the metals used in EV batteries and other renewable-energy technologies that countries need to decarbonize their economies. While most of the world's lithium is produced in Australia and South America, some two-thirds of it is processed in China, which also dominates EV-battery manufacturing. The US imports about 25% of its lithium supply from Chile and Argentina, but an analysis of federal data by the Atlantic Council found that it relied on China for about 70% of its lithium-ion batteries in 2023."If we're electrifying the transportation industry, you don't want to rely on any one country," Bernard Rowe, a managing director of Ioneer, which is developing Rhyolite Ridge, told Business Insider. "There was a recognition that there had to be domestic production."<div type="image" title="A customs officer holds powdery white lithium carbonate during an inspection at Shanghai İnternational Port on June 6, 2022." height="683" width="1024" msid="114817441" hostid="261" sizebytes="27062"></div>The Biden administration is encouraging US mining and manufacturing through a mix of loans, grants, tax breaks, and research and development programs — a lot of which was authorized under the Inflation Reduction Act. The incentives cover activities including extracting critical minerals like lithium; manufacturing solar, wind, and battery parts; buying EVs; and recycling components.Rowe argued that while the US alone can't meet the skyrocketing demand for lithium due to rising sales of EVs and battery storage, some of the supply has to be sourced domestically for national security reasons.Karl Friedhoff, a fellow for Asia studies at the Chicago Council on Global Affairs, agreed. He said there's no world in which the US and its partners can quickly compete with China on critical minerals; China already has so much capacity that it sets global prices."The question then is, can the US and other partner countries create a supply chain that meets their basic requirements," Friedhoff, who's part of a project exploring how the US, Japan, Australia, and India can cooperate to shift supply chains away from China. "Can we supply our own batteries? Can we build our own battery technologies? Do we have enough rare-earth elements for defense?"Based on estimates from Ioneer and other lithium project developers, the US could produce more than enough supply for the 1.4 million EVs sold in the country last year, which accounted for 7% of the auto market.The Biden administration wants EVs to account for at least 50% of car sales by 2030, and states like California and Texas are quickly deploying more battery storage to help balance stressed power grids. In September, the White House said US lithium production was on track to meet one-fifth of global demand outside of China this decade.<h2 id="c11b28df-2899-481e-8b55-b52898315793">Some environmentalists, Native tribes are alarmed</h2>The lithium projects haven't been without controversy, however. The Center for Biological Diversity <a target="_blank" href="https://biologicaldiversity.org/w/news/press-releases/blm-grants-final-approval-to-nevada-lithium-mine-threatening-biodiversity-cultural-landscapes-2024-10-24/?_gl=1*jmu4dt*_gcl_au*MTc3Mjg1OTA3Ni4xNzI5ODYzNzkz">has threatened to sue the Biden administration</a> over its permit for Rhyolite Ridge, arguing that the project could drive an endangered wildflower to extinction. The Western Shoshone Defense Project, which works to protect the Western Shoshone peoples' native homelands, says the mine threatens local water sources and culturally important sites.<div type="image" title="A Tiehm's buckwheat plant in Esmeralda County, Nevada, grows beside where the Rhyolite Ridge lithium-boron mine is planned." height="682" width="1024" msid="114817435" hostid="261" sizebytes="82450"></div>Thacker Pass faced similar opposition, but a federal judge last year dismissed a lawsuit from three Native tribes who argued that the mine's construction near a sacred site along Nevada's border with Oregon violated the law, <a target="_blank" href="https://apnews.com/article/lithium-mine-tribes-climate-energy-lawsuit-nevada-7a65eee7d78d93a1e44e3f8e10445143">the AP reported</a>.Rowe said Ioneer redesigned the Rhyolite Ridge mine to limit its footprint in the critical habitat of the endangered wildflower, Tiehm's buckwheat. He said Ioneer would also monitor the pollinator population and adopt dust-control strategies. The Biden administration, in issuing the permit for the mine, said it would not jeopardize the flower's survival.Some companies are working on <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/lithium-mining-electric-vehicles-climate-crisis-2023-5">direct lithium extraction techniques</a> that don't involve open-pit mining or large evaporation ponds and therefore could require less land and water and produce less toxic chemical waste. Controlled Thermal Resources is developing such a project in the Salton Sea, where lithium-rich brine is already being used to power geothermal plants.Tapping the US's newly discovered lithium resources likely hinges on the new extraction techniques, which currently cost more than traditional methods and still haven't been used commercially. The US Geological Survey this month estimated that there's enough lithium underneath southwestern Arkansas to meet the projected global demand for car batteries in 2030 nine times over.Actually extracting that lithium, including from brines left over from oil and gas production in the region, depends on whether the direct extraction techniques are viable, USGS researchers said.

The US is on the cusp of a lithium boom to loosen China's grip on EVs

Ah, <keyword id="18712" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Gold" source="Orion">gold</keyword>! The shiny metal that's been making humans lose their minds since time immemorial. And yet, from King Midas to our neighbourhood aunty and even our moms (and secretly dads), everyone seems to have a super soft spot for the bullion. But here's the kicker: right now, gold prices are breaking all records on their upward trajectory! As of today, prices of 24k carat gold have passed the Rs 80,000 mark per 10 grams. And if experts are to be believed, this train isn't stopping anytime soon! So, as shiny as gold might look, adding even a bit of its glitter as we start decking up for the festive season might not be so easy on your pockets. But let's admit it—we love our gold and can't live without it. No wonder India is the second-largest consumer of the yellow metal in the world, only behind <keyword id="1334" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="China" source="Orion">China</keyword>. Such is our fondness for the metal that the <keyword id="20195223" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="world-gold-council" source="keywords">World Gold Council</keyword> had to up our 2024 annual demand forecast to 850 tonnes, up from the previously estimated 750 tonnes. However, our love for gold isn't just about looking fabulously embellished and blinding people with its bling. Indians also see gold as a long-term, trusty investment, supporting our other hard-earned assets, especially when high <keyword id="22195" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Inflation" source="Orion">inflation</keyword> rates pull our returns down. After all, while inflationary pressures generally weaken the purchasing power of our regular paper money, gold is built differently. When the world is buckling to inflation, gold gains value during these times. This is also why it is considered a solid hedge against inflation. With Diwali and Dhanteras knocking at our doors, the inflation demon continued to bother India like a guest who refused to leave. Just last month, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) stood at 5.49%, much higher than the anticipated levels. Moreover, the diverging policy stances among central bankers worldwide, growing geopolitical tensions, tough job markets, and extreme weather events are only adding to the uncertainty. In such economically uncertain times, what should your gold strategy be this festive season? To buy or not to buy, that is the question. Well, let’s get to it. <h2><keyword id="20050894" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="gold-etfs" source="keywords">Gold ETFs</keyword> to the rescue</h2>See, buying physical gold jewellery is certainly a flex, but also a financial fuss. First, you pay a heavy amount to buy gold. Not to mention all those extra, hefty jewellery-making charges. And then you pay even more money to keep it safe in a bank locker, lest it get stolen. But what if we tell you that you can own pure <keyword id="3311599" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="24K-gold" source="Orion">24k gold</keyword>, minus all these frills? Welcome, Gold ETFs (Exchange Traded Funds). Simply put, gold ETFs are like the cool cousins of your traditional gold investments. Instead of stashing gold bars under your mattress like those maniac millionaires we see in Bollywood films, you can now invest and trade in gold through the stock market. It's basically buying units of an ETF on the stock exchange that directly mirror the ongoing domestic prices of gold. Generally, gold ETFs are equivalent to 99.5% pure physical gold bars, and each ETF unit denotes actual, one gram of gold. And let's face it, who would not want that golden glow in their lives? Gold ETFs have witnessed an over seven-fold surge in their AUM (assets under management) in just the last five years. From Rs 5,613.22 crore in September 2019 to Rs 39,823.50 crore in September 2024, gold ETFs seem to be in-thing. Inflows in gold ETFs have shot up by a whopping 2,695% over the last 5 years. In September 2019, gold ETFs had garnered a mere Rs 44.11 crore. Compare that to the inflows worth Rs 1,232.99 crore gold ETFs received last month. Talk about growing, or glowing popularity! In fact, in just 2024, inflows in gold ETFs have surged by nearly 88% since the beginning of this calendar year. From Rs 657.46 crore in January 2024 to Rs 1,232.99 crore in September 2024, good old gold is never out of season. <h2>So, how do these ETFs work? Should I invest in them now?</h2>All you need is a Demat account. Log into your account, choose the gold ETF scheme you want to invest in, and voila! You’re now a bullion-aire! All your gold ETF units will be stored in this account. Then, you can buy and sell gold ETFs just like you buy shares—in real-time. So, if gold prices inch upwards, which is where gold is currently going, the value of your ETF units will also rise in lockstep. Ashwini Kumar, Senior Vice President and Head of Market Data at ICRA Analytics, says that of late, gold ETFs have been increasingly gaining popularity among investors due to the liquidity, safety and transparency they offer. "With the escalating global geopolitical tensions boosting the ‘safe-haven’ appeal of the bullion, investors are preferring to park their funds in gold ETFs as compared to investing in physical gold, as there is no hassle of storing it. The heightened activity in gold ETFs is also driven by the prospects of an imminent further interest rate cut by the <keyword id="20078761" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="u-s-federal-reserve" source="keywords">U.S. Federal Reserve</keyword> in the coming months,” he added. “Investors with a short- to medium-term investment horizon may consider investment through gold ETFs. A buy-on-dips strategy here may help investors capitalise on a temporary correction in prices. Also, given the current market dynamics where equities are showing mixed trends, a modest, 5-10% allocation to gold may serve as a hedge against inflation and market volatility, which may help you balance risks in an optimum manner,” Kumar noted. <h2> Wait, there is no dearth of options</h2>But if ETFs make you go WTF, there’s always digital gold. You can invest in the yellow metal without actually physically holding it for as low as Rs 1. The best part? You can buy or sell this gold 24 X7 seamlessly via multiple apps without having to pay storage costs. On your behalf, your gold is stored in insured vaults by the seller. But remember, digital gold continues to remain unregulated territory in the country, where you venture at your own risk. In 2021, market watchdog SEBI had even asked its members to desist from selling digital gold. Then there are gold mutual funds and the Sarkari SGBs, or sovereign gold bonds. While gold mutual funds invest primarily in gold ETFs, SGBs are issued by the <keyword id="19899808" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="rbi" source="keywords">RBI</keyword> and are also a reliable substitute for holding physical gold. However, with the RBI currently putting brakes on issuing SGBs, investing in them is out of the question. Plus, you should only get your hands on SGBs if you're in for the long haul. Apart from a 2.5% p.a. interest, you don't have any yearly earnings from them. Moreover, no premature redemption is allowed before 5 years, and you'll have to wait a good 8 years to maximise your returns. <h2> Okay, tell me about returns</h2>In contrast, the seventeen gold ETF schemes currently present in the market offer an average one-year return of 29.12%. Stay with it a little longer, and you can end up with returns worth 16.93% and 13.59% over a 3 and 5-year period, respectively. If you look at it, these returns are comparable with the returns delivered by actual, physical gold. Data from Value Research indicates that gold, as a commodity, has delivered returns worth 27.24%, 16.53%, and 14.18% over a 1, 3, and 5-year period, respectively. So, worth investing, right? <h2>What are the risks?</h2>See, stock markets are as unpredictable as monsoons in Mumbai. One significant market correction can wash away your returns, and one sunny day or an upswing can leave you wallowing in wealth. Since your gold investments are directly linked to these markets, you should steel yourself up for some volatility. Plus, international gold prices are in dollars. So, if our rupee decides to take a nosedive, your returns might look a bit tarnished. Also, know that your ETF might not always perfectly mirror gold prices, which is also known as a tracking error. It's like expecting your Zomato-ordered food to look exactly like the picture on the menu—it's close, but not quite. Then there’s the taxation bit. The budget this year brought down the <keyword id="20552259" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="ltcg" source="keywords">LTCG</keyword> (long-term capital gains tax) on gold ETFs from the previous 20% to 12.5% (sans indexation). LTCG is what you pay if you sell your ETF units after 12 months. If you sell your gold ETF units within a year and make handsome returns, the tax you’ll have to pay will be equivalent to your income tax slab rate. <h2>Is gold just for old?</h2>A survey by fintech firm Moneyview thinks otherwise. Per their findings, over 85% of the 3,000 respondents it talked to considered gold to be a valuable asset for wealth preservation, with its intrinsic value and historical performance continuing to drive consumer confidence. Particularly, young investors in the age group of 25–40 years are also investing in gold via both physical and digital ways to build wealth for retirement and other long-term goals. So, young or old, everyone’s going for gold. So, this festive season, with gold prices going north, investing in gold can add that much-needed glitz to your financial attire. But remember, don't go overboard since gold isn't exactly a high-return-yielding asset. But whether you're a seasoned investor looking to diversify or a newbie trying to make their way in the markets, investing in gold offers you a glittering safety cushion. Just remember, while gold can make your portfolio shine, it's your smart investment decisions that truly make you golden. Disclaimer: The content on this website is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice. We recommend readers consult certified, qualified, and registered advisors for professional and personalised financial advice.

Can investing in gold this festive season add the much-touted Midas touch to your investments?

<ul class="summary-list"><li>India's Prime Minister Narendra Modi is in Russia to visit its president Vladimir Putin. </li><li>It's a visit that risks annoying India's ally the US. </li></ul>When India's prime minister arrived in Moscow on Tuesday, he greeted Russia's famously chilly president, Vladimir Putin, with an exuberant bear hug.It was a move likely <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/modi-putin-russia-india-relationship-not-worried-us-biden-mad-2024-7">to rile the US, </a>India's most important geopolitical ally, which has placed pressure on New Delhi to loosen its ties with Russia over Putin's invasion of Ukraine.But Prime Minister Narendra Modi's fear of China — a key Russian ally — means that he's willing to risk American anger to keep Putin close."New Delhi sees Moscow as an important buffer in their relationship due to Moscow's strong ties with Beijing," Sarang Shidore, an analyst at the Quincy Institute, told Business Insider."It is not in Russia's interest to have China and India at loggerheads, so it could, to a degree, act as a restraining agent."<h2 id="0ad4840d-1eb0-4f3e-a27c-3953a5a682f0">India ignores US pressure to cut Russia ties</h2>During the Cold War, the Soviet Union was among India's most important allies, with the Kremlin providing military support during India's clashes with Pakistan.They've remained close ever since, but the relationship is being tested anew in the fallout from the Ukraine war.The US has attempted to persuade India to take part <a target="_blank" href="https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-united-nations-general-assembly-biden-narendra-modi-india-82c9273cf3143cf16e9da23c3dd48170">in its campaign to isolate</a> Russia over the Ukraine invasion — but with little success."Russia is one of India's oldest strategic partners, and New Delhi wants to maintain this relationship regardless of Russia's diplomatic isolation following the war in Ukraine," Rahul Bhatia, an analyst at the Eurasia Group, told BI.India has increased its purchase of Russian goods, including oil and fertilizer, at reduced prices after the US imposed sanctions on Russia.It continues to buy Russian armaments, with around <a target="_blank" href="https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/defence/more-than-60-70-of-india-armed-forces-equipped-with-russian-origin-weapons-indian-envoy/articleshow/76903811.cms?from=mdr">70% of its weapons systems believed to be Russian</a>-made, and its military reliant on the Kremlin for spare parts and upgrades."Taking a hardline position against Russia could have both economic and security ramifications for India," said Richard Rossow, an analyst at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.<h2 id="a68bd311-605c-44db-97ac-44c2056c27c0">China's threat to India increases</h2>The threat from Chinese leader Xi Jinping is another key factor in Modi's determination to ignore US pressure and retain good ties with Putin.China's regional might is growing, and it's menacing India, Asia's other major economic power.In 2020, a long-simmering border dispute resulted in deadly clashes between Indian and Chinese troops. China ha<a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-produces-vast-undersea-maps-submarine-warfare-report-says-2024-1">s bolstered its presence in the Indian Ocean</a>, and the two are jostling for influence in countries in the region.China has built stronger ties with Russia in the wake of the Ukraine invasion, hoping a Russian victory<a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/xi-china-putin-russia-frenemies-limits-power-sphere-influence-2024-7"> will damage US power and enhance its own global</a> might. And it's this friendship Modi's seeking to drive a wedge between."There is a real chance of future conflicts, and India would prefer to avoid Russia exporting advanced military hardware to China," said Rossow.Some Indian analysts believe that China poses a greater threat to Russia than NATO in the long term and that India can exploit those differences."The Russia-China 'alliance' may be short-term in nature, and that historical conflicts between the two, such as over their long border and under-developed natural resources in Russia's east, will resurface and trigger renewed tensions," said Morrow.But for the time being, Russia's new "no limits"<a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-economy-china-no-limits-partnership-yuan-bank-loans-sanctions-2024-2"> partnership has got Modi worried</a>, and he'll likely be hoping for a swift end to the Ukraine war. By maintaining good relations with Putin he's hoping he can contain the fallout."The war does not at all benefit its interests. The war also opens the door to legitimizing violations of territorial integrity, and endangers a principle that New Delhi has backed strongly," said Shidore.

Fear of China is behind India's exuberant display of friendship with Vladimir Putin 

<ul class="summary-list"><li>President-elect Donald Trump claims he can split the alliance between Russia and China.</li><li>The authoritarian states formed a "no limits" partnership after Russia's Ukraine invasion.</li></ul>At an event just days before his <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/donald-trump-election-victory-impact-investments-costs-housing-taxes-childcare-2024-11">election triumph</a>, Donald Trump gave a clue as to how he plans to tackle two of the US' most powerful adversaries, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-and-china-anti-us-coalition-is-growing-more-threatening-2024-9">Russia and China.</a>Speaking to right-wing media personality <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=46FFS37MCx0">Tucker Carlson in Glendale, Arizona, </a>Trump accused the Biden administration of allowing the authoritarian powers to draw closer together."The one thing you never want to happen is you never want Russia and China uniting," Trump said. "I'm going to have to un-unite them, and I think I can do that, too. I have to un-unite them."Trump has long boasted of his deal-making prowess and, during his term of office, claimed to have struck a rapport with strongmen leaders President Vladimir Putin of Russia and Xi Jinping of China.But analysts say that prising Russia and China's bromance could prove to be an insurmountable challenge.<h2 id="56ef374b-ed2f-43ea-9df5-ddc65e9c013c">An anti-US alliance</h2>Xi and Putin are determined to topple US global power and they see Trump's election as a chance to further that agenda."While there are differences between Moscow and Beijing, they both share a world view of America in terminal decline, now further accelerated by the upheaval expected from a second Trump term," Stefan Wolff, a professor on international security at the University of Birmingham in the UK, told BI. It's a relationship of increasing concern to leaders in the Pentagon, as both nations<a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-and-china-anti-us-coalition-is-growing-more-threatening-2024-9"> possess formidable nuclear arsenals </a>and sophisticated military technology.China has given Russia vital economic and diplomatic support to fuel its invasion of Ukraine, a US ally. <a target="_blank" rel="" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-russia-trade-record-ukraine-war-xi-jinping-vladimir-putin-2024-1">Trade between China and Russia</a> surged to a record high of $240 billion in 2023,Meanwhile, Russia and China's militaries have taken part in joint military exercises as China menaces Taiwan with invasion. <h2 id="e9cf0f79-3ec7-4131-88ce-94d98aefec59">Tensions remain</h2>Despite the declarations of unity, there are serious underlying tensions in the alliance Trump could seek to exploit.The president-elect pointed to these in his remarks to Carlson, claiming that Russia and China are "natural enemies" because China covets Russian land in the Far East for its growing population.<div type="image" title="Chinese and Russian jet fighters" height="640" width="1024" msid="115059004" hostid="261" sizebytes="14522"></div>"There is a lot of resentment of China in Russia in both the public and policy circles," said Wolff.China has made audacious inroads in the<a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/xi-china-putin-russia-frenemies-limits-power-sphere-influence-2024-7"> Central Asian republics that have long been seen</a> as part of Moscow's sphere of influence. And Russia is wary that China could seek to revive old border disputes to expand its territory, said Wolff.Russia, he continued, is "ultimately resentful of the fact that Moscow is now a junior partner to Beijing. These are potentially all things that Trump could use to drive a wedge between Russia and China."<h2 id="0f840bf6-189a-447f-89b2-5ba2081939b0">Exploiting chaos </h2>But achieving the goal will be incredibly difficult, say observers. To entice Putin away from his alliance with Xi, Trump would likely have to present him <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/putin-no-hurry-end-ukraine-war-no-matter-wins-election-2024-11">with a US-brokered Ukraine peace</a> deal that meets most of the demands the Russian president has set out, said Wolff. These include the annexation of swaths of Ukrainian territory and guarantees that sanctions would be lifted — terms Ukraine has flatly rejected, and that would enrage the US' European allies. But even if Putin were tempted by such a deal, China's current economic leverage over <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-economy-china-trade-moscow-beijing-imports-bank-transactions-payments-2024-10">Russia as its biggest trading partner </a>provides it with an effective veto to any prospective deal with Trump. "Russia is going to be dependent on China no matter what in coming years as it seeks to rebuild its armed force and economy after Ukraine, and it's a weakness that Beijing will certainly exploit even if it costs it more to do so," Paul Cormarie, a political analyst a the RAND Corporation told BI."Unless it's [the US] replacing China as Russia's main partner (which would be frankly absurd) there's nothing much that could realistically split the two at the moment," he said.Jonathan Ward, an analyst at the Hudson Institute, told BI that Trump could instead seek to exert pressure on China, imposing the same punishing sanctions on the Chinese economy as it applied to Russia to tear the allies apart.<div type="image" title="Donald Trump shakes hands with Vladimir Putin." height="1160" width="1880" msid="115059005" hostid="261" sizebytes="73122"></div>He said this would "set a long-term framework for the breaking of the Russia-China axis and eventual strategic victory over this group of adversary states."However, some analysts <a target="_blank" href="https://www.csis.org/analysis/sunk-costs-difficulty-using-sanctions-deter-china-taiwan-crisis">have </a>questioned the power of US sanctions to change China's decision-making and said they'd be tough to enforce given the size of China's economy.Another possibility is that Trump could seek to form smaller deals to create divisions between Russia and China, for instance, on security or sanctions. But they'd be unlikely to last."These deals would likely not impress serious thinkers in strategy and policy, but will be sellable as foreign policy wins," Robert Dover, a professor of International Security at Hull University in the UK, told BI.<h2 id="d89e07fd-2106-489f-9400-2915f0f79e26">The Trump effect</h2>Another factor likely to draw Russia and China closer together is Trump himself. Putin and Xi likely see the chance to exploit divisions caused by Trump's willingness to insult allies and foment domestic turmoil. Trump has long questioned the US commitment to the NATO alliance, and <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/possible-trump-effect-uk-national-security-and-what-do-about-it">Russia will likely be keen to probe </a>weaknesses caused by the possible withdrawal of its most powerful member.In East Asia, Trump has accused allies of freeloading off the US, a source of tension Beijing will likely seek to exploit."China can take a 'divide-and-conquer' strategy to dilute the effectiveness of Trump's foreign policy," Zhiqun Zhu, an expert on Chinese foreign policy at Bucknell University, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.voanews.com/a/china-expects-bumpy-relations-with-the-us-under-trump-/7854808.html">told VOA this week. </a>For many observers, the economic and strategic ties that have formed between Russia and China in recent years are already so strong that breaking them apart is likely impossible.As Cormarie put it: "The Russia-China axis against the US is here to stay."

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