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<ul class="summary-list"><li>China's Xi Jinping negotiated a truce with India's leader, Narendra Modi.</li><li>They agreed to a patrolling arrangement on a disputed Himalayan border.</li></ul>At the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-hosts-brics-summit-defy-west-us-economy-china-dollar-2024-10">BRICS summit</a> in Russia this week, China's leader Xi Jinping and India's Prime Minister Narendra Modi shook hands for the first time in five years.The symbolic moment came after a deal was struck to resolve a long-standing feud between the Asian superpowers.In the lead-up to the summit, the countries announced they had reached a patrolling agreement that would reduce tensions along a disputed <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/india-china-buying-new-light-tanks-for-himalayan-mountain-warfare-2023-6">Himalayan border.</a>The dispute had led to deadly hand-to-hand combat in recent years, taking the lives of 20 Indian troops and at least four Chinese soldiers.After their meeting at the summit hosted by Russia's President Vladimir Putin, Xi and Modi said they would continue discussions on resolving the issue.<h2 id="997cee52-7fd6-4283-bf77-94e40a12b5cc">A setback for the US</h2>Some analysts believe it is a development that's unlikely to be welcomed in Washington, DC.The US has sought to recruit India to help it contain China's growing regional aggression alongside other members of the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue, a security pact that also includes Japan and Australia."So definitely, this is a setback for the United States of America's Indo-Pacific outlook, given the kind of rapprochement we are seeing in India-China relations, and particularly India, China and Russia coming together," Jagannath Panda, head of the Stockholm Center for South Asian and Indo-Pacific Affairs, told Business Insider."Putin, Xi, and Modi meeting definitely signals that there is a kind of understanding under the carpet that has happened, which is quite subtle," he said.It's an assessment echoed by Zhiqun Zhu, professor of political science and international affairs at Bucknell University."The thaw in India-China relations is a boon to both countries. This is particularly significant for China because India may now be less inclined to confront Beijing as part of Quad," Zhu told <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.voanews.com/a/india-china-deal-raises-questions-about-us-indo-pacific-strategy-/7838623.html">Voice of America. </a>"In this sense, the effectiveness of Quad would be diluted with a less enthusiastic India."<h2 id="baf534cf-4366-41b8-b9ef-d526ffe91fda">Competition between Asia's rival powers intensifies</h2>Tensions have been building between China and India for years.As the two biggest economies in Asia, the countries have long jostled for regional power, with the dispute over the Himalayan border a flashpoint that led to clashes in 2020, 2021, and 2022.Amid the stand-off, Chinese vessels have reportedly surveilled the Indian Ocean in <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.reuters.com/world/india/another-chinese-research-vessel-spotted-off-india-fuelling-unease-2024-03-11/">what experts told Reuters</a> was a likely intelligence-gathering operation, while India has strengthened its security ties with China's chief global rival, the US.In 2017 India played a key role in restarting the Quad, an alliance designed as a bulwark against growing Chinese influence and aggression in the Asia-Pacific region.But India has long sought to balance its relationship with rival superpowers the US and China, and does not at this point want to tie itself too closely to either side, say analysts.In addition to being a member of the Quad Alliance, it is a founding member of the BRICS, an <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-economy-asia-countries-flaunt-russia-putin-diplomacy-relationship-brics-2024-9">association of non-Western economies </a>that China has sought to transform into an alternative global economic power base to the US.<div type="image" title="India-China border" height="683" width="1024" msid="114594056" hostid="261" sizebytes="158650"></div>"This explains why it remains part of multilateral groupings with contradictory goals," said Praveen Donthi, a South Asia analyst with the Eurasia Group in Washington, DC, pointing to both its membership of the US-aligned Quad and China-dominated BRIC group.The truce comes with China on the back foot diplomatically, said Panda, pointing to its damaged relations with Europe and the US after its support f<a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-and-china-anti-us-coalition-is-growing-more-threatening-2024-9">or Russia's invasion of Ukraine.</a>"One could draw a conclusion at this point that probably the Chinese are more interested to rebuild the ties with India than the other way round," said Panda.He said there's also the possibility that Xi has reached an agreement with Modi behind the scenes for India to remain silent if China acts on its longstanding ambition to seize back control of Taiwan.Such a move would likely draw in the US and its other regional allies, who have pledged to help defend<a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-taiwan-drone-swarms-uav-us-playing-catch-up-production-2024-10"> Taiwan's independence.</a>"I think China's bigger ambition and target is the Taiwan issue, and therefore they would not really like to continue the kind of tensions they were engaged in with India for the last three to four years," he said."Therefore, they would like to rebuild, and they would like to ensure that India does not react to the Taiwan issue so sensitively."In any case, its a setback in US attempts to include India in a deeper security alliance, he said."For a long time, the US has tried to develop security and defense ties with India," said Panda.For the time being, a truce suits both Russian and Chinese interests, Rahul Bhatia, an analyst at the Eurasia Group, said. But, he added, tensions remain.He said that though both parties have opened discussions about the border dispute, the underlying problem remains unresolved, and future flare-ups are likely.Donthi said the progress between the leaders could also be derailed if tensions between the US and China increase."This comes as a relief after four years of eyeball-to-eyeball troop deployment in the Himalayas. However, it's only the beginning," he said.

Xi undercut the West by negotiating a truce in China's long feud with India

<ul class="summary-list"><li>A satellite image shows China's two operational aircraft carriers docked together.</li><li>Liaoning and Shandong were pier-side at Sanya Naval Base on Hainan Island in the South China Sea.</li></ul>A rare satellite image captured China's two fully operational <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/why-china-wants-to-build-aircraft-carriers-2024-6">aircraft carriers</a> sitting pier-side together in the South China Sea earlier this week.The carriers arrived at the naval base after several weeks of exercises in the region.Business Insider obtained the satellite image from <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.blacksky.com">BlackSky</a>, a real-time, space-based intelligence company. It shows the Chinese People's Liberation Army Navy's Liaoning and Shandong carriers docked at the same pier at Sanya Naval Base on Hainan Island, just east of Vietnam. <div type="image" title="A satellite image shows China's two operational aircraft carriers docked at the same naval base." height="720" width="1280" msid="114130375" hostid="261" sizebytes="35766"></div>The image was taken on Tuesday. Open-source intelligence accounts on social media also noted the rare occurrence of both carriers being seen docked together. The Liaoning, China's first carrier, was built from the stripped hulk of an unfinished Soviet-era Kuznetsov-class carrier that China purchased in the late 90s. It entered service in 2012 but was not deemed combat-ready until four years later. Given its origins, China's Liaoning resembles Russia's sole aircraft carrier, the Admiral Kuznetsov.<div type="image" title="A man stands in front of two models of China's aircraft carriers, which feature model fighter jets on them, at a museum with other exhibits and displays highlighting China's naval aviation." height="5472" width="8256" msid="114130374" hostid="261" sizebytes="5298600"></div>The Shandong, China's second carrier, is the country's first domestically-produced aircraft carrier. The ship is, however, still based on the design for the Liaoning, featuring similar characteristics, such as the ski-jump style ramp for launching planes, but also some differences, like the ability to carry a larger air wing, specifically more of China's carrier-based J-15 fighters. The vessel was commissioned into the PLAN in 2019.These ships are the predecessors to <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/chinas-new-aircraft-carrier-more-to-learn-to-match-us-2024-5">China's newest aircraft carrier, the Fujian</a>, which is not yet in active service and has been undergoing sea trials. Unlike the others, the new ship features an <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/chinas-newest-aircraft-carrier-seen-with-aircraft-mock-ups-images-2024-4">advanced catapult launch system</a> akin to the kind used on the US Navy's new Ford-class carriers.<div type="image" title="A J-15 fighter taking off from aircraft carrier Shandong" height="4340" width="6509" msid="114130373" hostid="261" sizebytes="671206"></div>Prior to docking together in Sanya, the Liaoning and Shandong were operating in different waterways. In mid-September, the Liaoning was spotted sailing from the East China Sea to the Philippine Sea. It then conducted exercises in the Western Pacific involving fighter jets and helicopters.The Shandong, on the other hand, docked in Hainan after participating in drills in the South China Sea late last month. Though there has been some speculation, it is unclear if the carriers will conduct dual-carrier operations.<div type="image" title="An aerial drone photo taken on May 1, 2024 shows China's third aircraft carrier, the Fujian, during its maiden sea trials." height="683" width="1024" msid="114130376" hostid="261" sizebytes="74856"></div>China's naval exercises have come amid drills with Russia and clashes with its neighbors. Beijing has been <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-taking-over-south-sea-us-not-stopping-experts-philippines-2024-9">harassing and attacking Philippine vessels</a> in disputed waters, specifically around the Scarborough Shoal. The territory, which China unjustly claims, has seen increased conflict in recent months, which <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/philippines-expects-us-to-intervene-if-china-takes-rusted-warship-2024-9">Chinese vessels shooting water at and ramming Philippine ships</a>.Just this week, the Philippines accused Chinese vessels of firing water cannons at government ships taking supplies to fishermen in the area.These fights involve the white-hulled coast guard instead of the Chinese navy gray hulls, such as destroyers and aircraft carriers, that would be needed in a major maritime conflict.

Rare satellite image shows China's only two operational aircraft carriers together at a base in the South China Sea

<ul class="summary-list"><li>India's Prime Minister Narendra Modi is in Russia to visit its president Vladimir Putin. </li><li>It's a visit that risks annoying India's ally the US. </li></ul>When India's prime minister arrived in Moscow on Tuesday, he greeted Russia's famously chilly president, Vladimir Putin, with an exuberant bear hug.It was a move likely <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/modi-putin-russia-india-relationship-not-worried-us-biden-mad-2024-7">to rile the US, </a>India's most important geopolitical ally, which has placed pressure on New Delhi to loosen its ties with Russia over Putin's invasion of Ukraine.But Prime Minister Narendra Modi's fear of China — a key Russian ally — means that he's willing to risk American anger to keep Putin close."New Delhi sees Moscow as an important buffer in their relationship due to Moscow's strong ties with Beijing," Sarang Shidore, an analyst at the Quincy Institute, told Business Insider."It is not in Russia's interest to have China and India at loggerheads, so it could, to a degree, act as a restraining agent."<h2 id="0ad4840d-1eb0-4f3e-a27c-3953a5a682f0">India ignores US pressure to cut Russia ties</h2>During the Cold War, the Soviet Union was among India's most important allies, with the Kremlin providing military support during India's clashes with Pakistan.They've remained close ever since, but the relationship is being tested anew in the fallout from the Ukraine war.The US has attempted to persuade India to take part <a target="_blank" href="https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-united-nations-general-assembly-biden-narendra-modi-india-82c9273cf3143cf16e9da23c3dd48170">in its campaign to isolate</a> Russia over the Ukraine invasion — but with little success."Russia is one of India's oldest strategic partners, and New Delhi wants to maintain this relationship regardless of Russia's diplomatic isolation following the war in Ukraine," Rahul Bhatia, an analyst at the Eurasia Group, told BI.India has increased its purchase of Russian goods, including oil and fertilizer, at reduced prices after the US imposed sanctions on Russia.It continues to buy Russian armaments, with around <a target="_blank" href="https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/defence/more-than-60-70-of-india-armed-forces-equipped-with-russian-origin-weapons-indian-envoy/articleshow/76903811.cms?from=mdr">70% of its weapons systems believed to be Russian</a>-made, and its military reliant on the Kremlin for spare parts and upgrades."Taking a hardline position against Russia could have both economic and security ramifications for India," said Richard Rossow, an analyst at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.<h2 id="a68bd311-605c-44db-97ac-44c2056c27c0">China's threat to India increases</h2>The threat from Chinese leader Xi Jinping is another key factor in Modi's determination to ignore US pressure and retain good ties with Putin.China's regional might is growing, and it's menacing India, Asia's other major economic power.In 2020, a long-simmering border dispute resulted in deadly clashes between Indian and Chinese troops. China ha<a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-produces-vast-undersea-maps-submarine-warfare-report-says-2024-1">s bolstered its presence in the Indian Ocean</a>, and the two are jostling for influence in countries in the region.China has built stronger ties with Russia in the wake of the Ukraine invasion, hoping a Russian victory<a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/xi-china-putin-russia-frenemies-limits-power-sphere-influence-2024-7"> will damage US power and enhance its own global</a> might. And it's this friendship Modi's seeking to drive a wedge between."There is a real chance of future conflicts, and India would prefer to avoid Russia exporting advanced military hardware to China," said Rossow.Some Indian analysts believe that China poses a greater threat to Russia than NATO in the long term and that India can exploit those differences."The Russia-China 'alliance' may be short-term in nature, and that historical conflicts between the two, such as over their long border and under-developed natural resources in Russia's east, will resurface and trigger renewed tensions," said Morrow.But for the time being, Russia's new "no limits"<a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-economy-china-no-limits-partnership-yuan-bank-loans-sanctions-2024-2"> partnership has got Modi worried</a>, and he'll likely be hoping for a swift end to the Ukraine war. By maintaining good relations with Putin he's hoping he can contain the fallout."The war does not at all benefit its interests. The war also opens the door to legitimizing violations of territorial integrity, and endangers a principle that New Delhi has backed strongly," said Shidore.

Fear of China is behind India's exuberant display of friendship with Vladimir Putin 

South Asia is a treasure trove of diverse landscapes, cultures, and histories. Here, we’ll explore the beautiful countries that share borders with India: <keyword id="12266" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="nepal" source="Orion">Nepal</keyword>, <keyword id="6356598" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Bhutan" source="Orion">Bhutan</keyword>, <keyword id="3001" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Pakistan" source="Orion">Pakistan</keyword>, <keyword id="1334" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="China" source="Orion">China</keyword>, Bangladesh, and Myanmar, as well as the maritime border with Sri Lanka. Each of these nations offers unique experiences and breathtaking beauty. <cmsannotation type="cmsannotation" annotationid="Nepal: The Himalayan Jewel" comment="subhead" text="Nepal: The Himalayan Jewel">Nepal: The Himalayan Jewel</cmsannotation> <div type="image" title="Nepal" msid="110382276" hostid="261" sizebytes="187574" caption="&amp;lt;p&amp;gt;Majestic peaks of the Himalayas await adventurous souls in Nepal.&amp;lt;/p&amp;gt;"></div>Located in the lap of the majestic Himalayas, Nepal is a paradise for nature lovers and adventurers alike. The towering peaks, including Mount Everest, the highest point on earth, draw trekkers from around the globe. Beyond the mountains, Nepal is rich in cultural heritage with ancient temples, monasteries, and vibrant festivals. Highlights: Trekking in the Annapurna and Everest regions Exploring the historic Kathmandu Valley Visiting the birthplace of Buddha in Lumbini <cmsannotation type="cmsannotation" annotationid="Bhutan: The Land of the Thunder Dragon" comment="subhead" text="Bhutan: The Land of the Thunder Dragon">Bhutan: The Land of the Thunder Dragon</cmsannotation> <div type="image" title="Bhutan" msid="110382305" hostid="261" sizebytes="132570" caption="&amp;lt;p&amp;gt;Bhutan&amp;#39;s spiritual serenity&amp;lt;/p&amp;gt;"></div>Bhutan, known for its serene landscapes and rich cultural heritage, is a country that measures success by Gross National Happiness rather than GDP. The country's lush valleys, towering cliffs, and pristine forests make it a haven for nature enthusiasts. Highlights: Witnessing the breathtaking architecture of Paro Taktsang (Tiger’s Nest Monastery) Experiencing vibrant festivals like Tshechu Exploring the capital city, Thimphu, and its impressive Dzongs <cmsannotation type="cmsannotation" annotationid="Pakistan: The Land of Ancient Civilizations" comment="subhead" text="Pakistan: The Land of Ancient Civilizations">Pakistan: The Land of Ancient Civilizations</cmsannotation> <div type="image" title="Pakistan" msid="110382361" hostid="261" sizebytes="63724" caption="&amp;lt;p&amp;gt;Step back in time amidst the ancient ruins of Mohenjo-Daro and Harappa.&amp;lt;/p&amp;gt;"></div>Pakistan is a country of stunning landscapes, from the peaks of the Karakoram Range to the arid expanses of the Thar Desert. It's also home to ancient archaeological sites, bustling cities, and a rich tapestry of cultures. Highlights: Visiting the ancient ruins of Mohenjo-Daro and Harappa Trekking through the beautiful valleys of Hunza and Swat Exploring the vibrant city of Lahore with its Mughal-era landmarks <cmsannotation type="cmsannotation" annotationid="China: The Middle Kingdom" comment="subhead" text="China: The Middle Kingdom">China: The Middle Kingdom</cmsannotation> <div type="image" title="China" msid="110382391" hostid="261" sizebytes="160816" caption="&amp;lt;p&amp;gt;The Great Wall stands as a testament to China&amp;#39;s enduring history and grandeur.&amp;lt;/p&amp;gt;"></div>China, one of the world's oldest civilisations, shares a long and complex history with India. It offers a vast array of landscapes, from the Great Wall stretching across arid deserts to the serene beauty of its countryside. Highlights: Walking along the Great Wall Exploring the Terracotta Army in Xi’an Experiencing the vibrant culture and modern marvels of Beijing and Shanghai <cmsannotation type="cmsannotation" annotationid="Bangladesh: The Land of Rivers" comment="subhead" text="Bangladesh: The Land of Rivers">Bangladesh: The Land of Rivers</cmsannotation> <div type="image" title="Bangladesh" msid="110382434" hostid="261" sizebytes="77384" caption="&amp;lt;p&amp;gt;The Sundarbans, where the mystical allure of the Bengal tiger awaits.&amp;lt;/p&amp;gt;"></div>Bangladesh is characterised by its lush greenery, numerous rivers, and rich cultural heritage. It’s a country where the simple, rural life offers a stark contrast to its bustling cities. Highlights: Exploring the Sundarbans, home to the Bengal tiger Visiting the ancient city of Paharpur Experiencing the lively capital, Dhaka, with its vibrant markets and historical sites <cmsannotation type="cmsannotation" annotationid="Myanmar: The Golden Land" comment="subhead" text="Myanmar: The Golden Land">Myanmar: The Golden Land</cmsannotation> <div type="image" title="Myanmar" msid="110382468" hostid="261" sizebytes="94416" caption="&amp;lt;p&amp;gt;Bagan&amp;#39;s golden spires paint a mesmerizing skyline across ancient plains.&amp;lt;/p&amp;gt;"></div>Myanmar, with its golden pagodas, rich history, and diverse ethnic cultures, is a country that captivates travellers. From the serene shores of Inle Lake to the bustling streets of Yangon, there's much to discover. Highlights: Marvelling at the thousands of temples in Bagan Cruising on the Irrawaddy River Visiting the Shwedagon Pagoda in Yangon <cmsannotation type="cmsannotation" annotationid="Sri Lanka: The Pearl of the Indian Ocean" comment="subhead" text="Sri Lanka: The Pearl of the Indian Ocean">Sri Lanka: The Pearl of the Indian Ocean</cmsannotation> <div type="image" title="Sri Lanka" msid="110382497" hostid="261" sizebytes="193556" caption="&amp;lt;p&amp;gt;Serene beaches and lush tea plantations define Sri Lanka&amp;#39;s tropical paradise.&amp;lt;br&amp;gt;&amp;lt;/p&amp;gt;"></div>While Sri Lanka doesn’t share a land border with India, it lies close by in the Indian Ocean. This island nation is known for its beautiful beaches, lush tea plantations, and rich cultural heritage. Highlights: Relaxing on the pristine beaches of Bentota and Mirissa Exploring the ancient city of Sigiriya and its rock fortress Taking a scenic train ride through the tea plantations in Nuwara Eliya The countries bordering India each offer unique experiences and landscapes, making South Asia a rich and diverse region to explore. Whether you’re seeking the serenity of the Himalayas, the cultural richness of ancient civilisations, or the natural beauty of lush landscapes, these neighbouring countries have something special to offer every traveller.

India's stunning neighbouring countries that you must visit

<ul class="summary-list"><li>The Philippines says it's ramped up naval patrols and air surveillance in the South China Sea.</li><li>Rear Adm. Roy Vincent Trinidad said it was to counter the growing number of Chinese vessels there.</li></ul>The Philippines said it has stepped up its naval patrols and air surveillance around a disputed island in the South China Sea to counter the growing number of Chinese vessels in the area."So far, our Coast Guard will stay there, while our Navy and Air Force have increased their patrols by sea and by air," Rear Adm. Roy Vincent Trinidad told the Filipino outlet <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://tribune.net.ph/2024/09/02/afp-ratches-up-escoda-patrols">The Daily Tribute</a> on Monday.He said the new operations would support the activities of the BRP Teresa Magbanua, one of the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.pna.gov.ph/articles/1173869">newest and largest</a> patrol vessels deployed by the Philippine Coast Guard.The vessel has been operating around the island of Sabina Shoal since April with the aim of "advancing our national interest and safeguarding our position at Escoda Shoal," Trinidad said, using the island's Filipino name.Tensions have heightened between China and the Philippines over territorial claims over Sabina Shoal, a disputed atoll in the South China Sea, where flashpoints have become more frequent in recent months.In June, Chinese coast guard armed with <a target="_blank" rel="" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/philippines-soldiers-bare-hands-fight-armed-china-coast-guard-swords-2024-6">swords and knives</a> attacked Filipino vessels in the contested waters, resulting in injuries and one soldier losing a thumb.<div type="image" title="Chinese Coast Guard holding knives and machetes as they approach Philippine troops in the Second Thomas Shoal at the disputed South China Sea" height="3158" width="3165" msid="113067382" hostid="261" sizebytes="206970"></div>A month later, China's largest coastguard vessel <a target="_blank" rel="" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/beijings-monster-coastguard-ship-ramps-up-tensions-south-china-sea-2024-7">dropped anchor</a> in the Philippines' exclusive economic zone, which the Philippines described as an act of "intimidation."And as recently as last week, Philippine Coast Guard spokesperson Jay Tarriela <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://x.com/jaytaryela/status/1828077854539874574">said</a> China had deployed 40 vessels to block its delivery of supplies to soldiers stationed in Sabina Shoal.Meanwhile, in an X <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://x.com/jaytaryela/status/1829795642484670573">post</a> on Saturday, Tarriela said that a Chinese Coast Guard vessel had rammed and collided three times with the BRP Teresa Magbanua, damaging the ship.<h2 id="61c1bd47-5b43-4ffc-9b9b-fe620a655116">Outnumbered and outgunned</h2>Since late last month, the Teresa Magbanua has been outnumbered by over 50 Chinese ships, including three Chinese Coast Guard vessels, two People's Liberation Army Navy ships, one Chinese hospital vessel, one research ship, and 47 Chinese maritime militia vessels, according to The Daily Tribute.But Trinidad told the outlet that, for now, sending further naval assets remains unlikely.The BRP Teresa Magbanua "was deployed alone; we are watching it because there are reports of crushed corals being piled up there," he said.The US Department of State has <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.state.gov/u-s-support-for-the-philippines-in-the-south-china-sea-12/">condemned</a> what it describes as China's "dangerous" and "escalatory" actions against "lawful" Philippine maritime operations in the vicinity of Sabina Shoal.China's coast guard, meanwhile, <a target="_blank" class="" href="http://eng.mod.gov.cn/xb/News_213114/TopStories/16334938.html">said</a> a Philippine ship "illegally" entered Sabina Shoal on Saturday and "deliberately" crashed into a Chinese ship that was enforcing maritime rights under a routine operation."We once again warn the Philippines to face reality and give up illusions," Liu Dejun, a spokesperson for the China Coast Guard, said. "Withdrawing the ship immediately on its own is the only correct way," Liu added.<h2 id="284caa34-83c2-43b0-a60e-a59418a3bba9">Exhausting rivals and testing the US</h2>According to Sari Arho Havrén, an associate fellow at the Royal United Services Institute who specializes in China's foreign relations, China's provocations are meant to "exhaust" neighboring countries into accepting its claims over contested waters.(Vietnam, Malaysia, Brunei, and Taiwan also lay claim to parts of the South China Sea.)"China wants to change the status quo by force — exhaust the countries to give in to their claims," he <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-ax-attack-philippines-south-china-sea-grab-territory-experts-2024-6">told BI</a> in June.Collin Koh, a senior fellow at the Institute of Defence and Strategic Studies at Singapore's Nanyang Technological University, meanwhile, said China wants to test how far the US will support one of its allies in the region."China is deliberately escalating the situation, with a likely intention to test how far Washington would support Manila," Koh told <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://edition.cnn.com/2024/08/27/asia/china-philippines-new-flashpoint-sabina-shoal-intl-hnk/index.html">CNN</a> last week.Under a <a target="_blank" rel="" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-warships-could-protect-pacific-allys-ships-from-china-admiral-2024-8">defense treaty</a> signed in 1951, the US is supposed to come to the aid of the Philippines if an armed attack occurs on its forces.Adm. Samuel Paparo, head of the US Indo-Pacific Command, seemed to suggest that some limited support could be forthcoming. Speaking at a conference last week, he <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-warships-could-protect-pacific-allys-ships-from-china-admiral-2024-8">said</a> that the "escort of one vessel to the other is an entirely reasonable option within our Mutual Defense Treaty."Alexander Lopez, a Philippine National Maritime Council spokesman, meanwhile, called for a <a target="_blank" href="https://mirror.pco.gov.ph/news_releases/review-of-the-mutual-defense-treaty-with-the-us-pushed/">review</a> of the treaty last week, saying it needed to be adapted to new security challenges in Philippine waters.Since 1951, "the strategic landscape has changed so much. So, maybe it's high time now to maybe review," he said.

One of China's neighbors is sending out more naval patrols to challenge its attempts to dominate the South China Sea

<ul class="summary-list"><li>India is trying to modernize its military of 1.5 million people with lessons from Ukraine.</li><li>Until recent years, Russia supplied India with many weapons such as tanks and jets.</li></ul>As India boosts defense spending amid tensions with China and Pakistan, it is closely studying the Ukraine conflict for clues to the future of warfare and how to thwart its neighbors.Some lessons that Indian experts have already drawn: India needs lots of artillery, drones and cyberwarfare capabilities.Comparing Ukraine to India is tricky. Ukraine faces one major enemy — Russia — while India must contend with its old enemy Pakistan to the west, and an increasingly powerful China on its northwest frontier. The Russo-Ukraine war is mostly being fought over an Eastern European landscape of plains and forest, with a moderately good road network suitable for mechanized warfare. India must prepare for combat in a variety of terrain and climate conditions, including desert, jungle and some of the tallest mountains on Earth.India is also trying to modernize and standardize equipment for its armed forces, which comprise about 1.5 million personnel armed with a potpourri of equipment from several nations, as well as indigenous Indian gear. Until recent years, Russia supplied many weapons such as tanks and jets, but India is increasingly acquiring arms from Western nations, including American howitzers, French jet fighters, and Israeli drones.The Indian Army's artillery, for example, includes more than 3,000 weapons and multiple rocket launchers, including Russian, American, Swedish and South Korean designs. Indian observers believe Ukraine shows the importance of having plentiful and modern artillery. Artillery has arguably become the decisive combat arm in that war, with Russian firing <a target="_blank" href="https://www.politico.eu/article/ukrainian-army-suffers-from-artillery-shell-hunger/">10,000 shells per day</a> and advancing, while a munitions shortage has limited Ukraine to around 2,000 shells per day. This deluge of firepower has forced both armies to dig in, and turned the conflict into trench warfare."Looking at the demonstration of artillery fire in the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war, two lessons are available to the Indian Army," wrote Amrita Jash, an assistant professor at the Manipal Academy of Higher Education, in a <a target="_blank" href="https://www.orfonline.org/public/uploads/upload/20240118114645.pdf">report</a> for the Observer Research Foundation, an Indian think tank. "First, that firepower can be a 'battle-winning factor,' and second, that the time between acquiring the target to shooting has drastically reduced: where it once took five to 10 minutes, it now takes only a minute or two."Indeed, India already planning to <a target="_blank" href="https://www.thehindu.com/news/national/army-draws-lessons-from-ukraine-war-revises-its-artillery-requirements/article67315823.ece">modernize</a> its artillery arsenal, including switching to 155-mm howitzers — the standard NATO caliber — and developing longer-range shells and rockets.<div type="image" title="Ukrainian servicemen fire an artillery in the direction of Siversk, Donetsk Oblast, Ukraine on April 01, 2024." height="3000" width="4500" msid="109704222" hostid="261" sizebytes="757078"></div>The air war over Ukraine has proven to be a surprise, especially given Russian superiority in numbers of aircraft and technology. Anti-aircraft missiles have deterred the air forces of both sides from venturing into enemy airspace, with Russian aircraft limited to firing stand-off missiles at Ukrainian cities rather than providing air support for its ground troops. <a target="_blank">Drones</a> have become the stars and workhorses of the air war, with both sides deploying — and losing — drones in the hundreds of thousands.There are lessons here for Indian airpower, according to Arjun Subramaniam, a retired Indian Air Force air vice marshal who helped write the ORF report. India must prepare for "gaining control of the air in limited time and space conditions in a short, high-intensity limited conflict as well as in a longer, protracted conflict." The Air Force must also ensure that its plans are synchronized with ground and naval forces. India should also continue to focus on suppressing enemy air defenses, "particularly against an adversary that is more interested in denying rather than controlling the airspace."Not surprisingly, Subramaniam wants the Indian military to increase drone development and production. But he is also concerned about the possibility of a mass drone attack on India. "Of greater importance is the need to rapidly develop counter-drone capabilities that would be essential in responding to large-scale surprise attacks and retain effective second-strike capabilities," he wrote.<a target="_blank" href="https://www.economist.com/europe/2024/03/20/the-cyberwar-in-ukraine-is-as-crucial-as-the-battle-in-the-trenches">Cyberwarfare</a> has also emerged in Ukraine as a crucial tool in everything from hacking into military computers and critical infrastructure to purveying propaganda and deepfakes in global media. ORF researcher Shimona Mohan noted "the increasing role of largely civilian organizations like big tech in conflict situations and the deepening interplay of civil-military partnerships around dual-use technologies like AI."Mohan recommends that India invest in cyberwarfare, as other nations are doing. "However, if this is not feasible for socio-political or economic reasons, it should be a priority for countries to ensure that their strategic geopolitical allies are formidable tech powers—for instance in this war, Ukraine received much support from its more tech-savvy partners like the US and private tech companies."Michael Peck is a defense writer whose work has appeared in Forbes, Defense News, Foreign Policy magazine, and other publications. He holds an MA in political science from Rutgers Univ. Follow him on <a target="_blank" href="https://www.twitter.com/@mipeck1">Twitter</a> and <a target="_blank" href="https://www.linkedin.com/in/mipeck/">LinkedIn</a>.

India is drawing lessons from Ukraine to counter China's military might 

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Vladimir Putin has ordered the Russian army to increase its troop size by 180,000.</li><li>The increase would make Russia's army the second largest in the world, behind only China's.</li></ul>Russian President <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/putin-russia-plans-to-comprehensively-upgrade-its-navy-2024-6">Vladimir Putin</a> wants to grow his country's armed forces, but experts say his ambitions could come at the expense of Russia's economy.On Monday, Putin ordered the army to increase its troops by 180,000, per a decree published by the Kremlin.This will raise the overall number of Russian military personnel to 2.38 million people, with 1.5 million of them being active soldiers.The expansion, which will take effect in December, would give Russia the world's second-largest army, behind only China and ahead of the US and India, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/putin-orders-russian-army-grow-by-180000-soldiers-become-15-million-strong-2024-09-16/">per Reuters</a>, which cited data from the International Institute for Strategic Studies.This isn't the first time Putin has sought to expand the army since Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022. The Russian leader ordered an increase of 137,000 troops in August 2022, followed by an increase of 170,000 in December 2023.Nick Reynolds, a land warfare research fellow at the Royal United Services Institute, said the increase is consistent with Russia's ongoing war planning.In February, Reynolds coauthored a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/russian-military-objectives-and-capacity-ukraine-through-2024">commentary</a> that suggested that 2025 would be a make-or-break year for Russia. Russia believes it can sustain current troop and equipment losses through 2025, with the belief that "victory should be achieved by 2026," they wrote.That's not implausible if Ukraine's Western allies don't keep supporting it, they added. But after 2026, Russia will begin to run out of existing stocks of tanks and armored fighting vehicles and will have to rely on producing new ones.The gear coming off the production line "will still be substantial," Reynolds told BI in an interview on Wednesday. "Just significantly less than they are now."That raises the question of how Russia can resource its even bigger army when it is already stretched."Where are the resources going to come from? How is the recruitment going to work?" Reynolds said, adding: "There are still some serious questions about how they will be equipped."It's also hard to see how the current training pipeline could support the expansion, he said.The increase in the army comes at a perilous time for Russia, which has to balance its <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-economy-ukraine-war-moscow-military-spending-inflation-worker-shortage-2024-2">military objectives in Ukraine</a> against the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-economy-growth-recession-labor-worker-shortage-inflation-sanctions-west-2024-9">toll the war is taking on its economy</a>.Russia has "adapted much better than predicted to some of the pressures it's been put under," Reynolds told BI. But despite this, he said, "inflation is through the roof. The cost of living is through the roof."Other experts BI spoke to said that while Putin might still be able to grow Russia's army, it may only add more strain to the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-lacks-workers-ukraine-war-labor-crisis-worker-shortage-2023-12">already-stretched Russian labor force</a>.Artem Kochev, an economist at the Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, told BI that Russia's labor market would be less affected if military recruitment is done in a targeted fashion."Currently, new recruits can be split into two groups: indebted people with low socio-economic status, and prison convicts," Kochev said. "They either participate in the less productive branches of the economy or are not part of the labor market at all."Russia has recruited so many inmates that it has started to <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-shutter-prisons-inmates-ukraine-war-2024-3">shut down some of its prisons</a>, with one local official telling lawmakers in March that some prisons had to be shuttered because of "a one-time large reduction in the number of convicts," per Russian newspaper Kommersant."As long as recruitment stays within those two groups, the impact on the labor market will be limited," Kochev said, but noted that, even then, enlisting new recruits would still pose a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-economy-defense-military-war-spending-drains-resources-other-sectors-2024-1">sizable fiscal burden</a>.In July, Russian media reported that new recruits in Moscow would <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-military-troops-new-recruits-ukraine-bonus-high-death-rate-2024-7">receive a bonus of 1.9 million rubles, or about $22,000</a>, if they signed a contract with the Russian defense ministry.That package is <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-sign-up-bonuses-reaching-on-par-with-us-military-2024-7">on par with the bonuses offered by the US military</a> to their recruits, which range from $20,000 to $50,000.And even if money weren't a problem, Russia would still find it difficult to achieve its recruitment goals without hobbling its own economy."Taking another 180,000 people out of the labor force would have a serious impact on the economy," said Benjamin Hilgenstock, a senior economist at the Kyiv School of Economics Institute.He added: "The labor market is already extremely tight with the unemployment rate dropping to 2.4% in June, which is basically full employment, and nominal wage growth now above 15% year-over-year."The hunger for more troops has seen Russia turn to an unlikely source — <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-forcing-african-migrants-and-students-to-fight-in-ukraine-2024-6">African migrants and students</a>.In June, Bloomberg reported that Russian officials had threatened not to renew the visas of African migrant workers and students if they didn't join the Russian Armed Forces.Jeremy Morris, a global studies professor at Aarhus University, told BI that Russia's economic problems could overshadow its military challenges if left unattended."Authoritarian societies like Russia seem calm and controlled, but destabilization can happen quite abruptly," he said.

Putin is embarking on an aggressive hiring drive to rejuvenate Russia's army. But he can't sustain it, experts say.

<ul class="summary-list"><li>The US Army is conducting various training and exercises with international partners in the Indo-Pacific region.</li><li>US Army Pacific's commanding general said the land power network across the region is stronger than ever.</li></ul>Facing challenges from China and the possibility of a future fight in the Pacific, the US Army is training closer than ever with its international allies and partners to harness the skills needed for land combat across the challenging and diverse region.Those exercises, from biennial training in Australia to US Army Pacific's new Joint Pacific Multinational Readiness Center rotations in Alaska and Hawaii, and the "persistent state of partnering" with allies is "the greatest counterweight" against China's "aggressive, insidious" behavior, US Army Pacific's commanding general told Business Insider during an interview at Fort Wainwright in Fairbanks, Alaska.The Pentagon has been increasingly prioritizing readiness for a potential conflict with China, calling it the "pacing challenge" for the US military and attempting to redirect attention away from the Middle East and toward the Indo-Pacific.In the most recent <a target="_blank" href="https://media.defense.gov/2023/Oct/19/2003323409/-1/-1/1/2023-MILITARY-AND-SECURITY-DEVELOPMENTS-INVOLVING-THE-PEOPLES-REPUBLIC-OF-CHINA.PDF">China Military Power Report</a>, the Department of Defense said that the People's Republic of China is "the only competitor to the United States with the intent and, increasingly, the capacity to reshape international order."The report documented growing capabilities across the People's Liberation Army, especially China's Navy and <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-rocket-force-corruption-us-cannot-lower-guard-2024-1">Rocket Force</a>, as well as the intent to challenge America and its allies in the vast Indo-Pacific region.The behavior described has been seen recently in the Philippines, where China has tried to blockade Philippine vessels in disputed waters, as well as the <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/what-taiwans-election-results-mean-for-relations-with-china-us-2024-1">Taiwan</a> Strait, and in the <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/chinas-pilots-willing-challenge-us-risky-intercepts-former-naval-aviator-2023-11">air over the South and East China Seas</a>.<div type="image" title="Chinooks of 25th Combat aviation brigade support 1-27 Gimlets in the execution of IPACC." height="667" width="1000" msid="107918248" hostid="261"></div>Gen. Charles A. Flynn, the commander of US Army Pacific, told Business Insider that amid an increase in aggressive behavior from the PRC, he's seen a stronger turn from American allies toward partnering and training with the US Army.More allies in the Pacific, such as South Korea, Japan, Thailand, the Philippines, and Australia, have upped their ground force connections with the US in recent years, allowing all parties to learn from each other as countries look to their armies to protect their land, the general said.Flynn explained that this "persistent state of partnering together is the greatest counterweight, in my view, that we have against an aggressive, insidious, and, I refer to it as an irresponsible and incremental, approach that the Chinese have been taking for years and years."For the commander, that strength is best demonstrated by allies working and learning together on land, getting what he calls a "fingertip feel" of all the different environments, landscapes, and cultures in the region.That process includes working closely with the military forces the US has partnered with and navigating politics, as well as language and cultural differences, but it also involves preparing forces to fight in any of a variety of different environments found in the Pacific, from the subzero Arctic tundra of Alaska to the humid, wet jungles of Hawaii."We have to be able to operate in all the domains and be a good partner of the joint force," Flynn said, "and enable support and be decisive on land for the joint force."<div type="image" title="U.S. Army Gen. Charles Flynn, Commander of the U.S. Army Pacific, speaks with soldiers from the 1st Infantry Brigade Combat Team, 11th Airborne Division, during Joint Pacific Multinational Readiness Center 24-02 at Donnelly Training Area, Alaska, Feb. 15, 2024." height="668" width="1000" msid="107918250" hostid="261"></div>While USARPAC has long trained with partners in the Pacific, traveling throughout the region to conduct joint exercises with other armies, the scale, scope, and strength of the connection has increased in recent years.Last year, US forces and Australia hosted the tenth and the largest iteration of the Talisman Sabre exercise, a large-scale training conducted every other year with a host of allies and partners in the area.Of the forces involved in Talisman Sabre last year, nearly 10,000 troops from 10 different nations participated in what the <a target="_blank" href="https://www.defense.gov/News/News-Stories/Article/Article/3476514/talisman-sabre-23-reflects-us-allies-commitment-to-indo-pacific/">Department of Defense called</a> "the most comprehensive ground force-centered operation" in the training's history.At the conclusion of the exercise, Army Maj. Gen. Joseph A. Ryan said that while air and maritime capabilities play a major role in the Indo-Pacific region, it's a "joint, multinational region," and "the capacity of land power to demonstrate alliance, partnership, cooperation and will — which are all important components of deterrence — is unmatched.""When you can have land forces working together, enduring over time in an exercise, partnering, operating, learning, interoperating together, demonstrating will, and demonstrating the desire to get better together, I think it sends a very clear and unambiguous message to our adversaries that that is what faces you if you choose to continue on a path that is disrespectful of the nations involved," he said.This month, US Army Pacific conducted its JPMRC training rotation in Alaska, where thousands of troops are trained to wage war in frigid, Arctic conditions. The Joint Pacific Multinational Readiness Center also does a training rotation in Hawaii, where troops conduct exercises in the jungle.The JPMRC is the Army's newest combat training center, and it is meant to prepare forces for environments where they are most likely to fight, Flynn said. That training is also conducted with a host of US allies and partners in the Pacific."It's a very challenging place for forces to have to get ready," Flynn said of the Indo-Pacific region, but he emphasized that "the best way to actually understand this region" is to "be on the ground and understand what's happening."

China's 'aggressive' and 'insidious' moves in the Pacific have the US Army strengthening what a top general says is the 'greatest counterweight'

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Japan says a Chinese surveillance plane violated its airspace on Monday.</li><li>It's the first recorded incursion by China into Japan's airspace.</li></ul>Japan on Monday said that a Chinese military plane violated its territorial airspace for the first time.The Japanese government<a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.asahi.com/ajw/articles/15403036"> said a Chinese Y-9 reconnaissance</a> plane had flown over the Danjo islands, west of the island of Kyushu, for around two minutes.At a press conference, Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshimasa Hayashi<a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/chinese-militarys-airspace-violation-is-utterly-unacceptable-japan-says-2024-08-27/"> </a>described the intrusion as "utterly unacceptable" and said it was"not only a serious violation of Japan's sovereignty but also threatens our security.""In recent years, China's military activities in the vicinity of our country have tended to expand and become more and more active," he said.Japan scrambled its jets in response to the intrusion, the <a target="_blank" href="https://uk.news.yahoo.com/japan-scrambles-jets-chinese-aircraft-141556130.html">AFP news wire reported</a><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://uk.news.yahoo.com/japan-scrambles-jets-chinese-aircraft-141556130.html">, </a>though no clashes with Chinese planes were reported.The Japanese foreign ministry said it had summoned China's top diplomat in Tokyo to protest the incident.In recent years, China has become an increasingly assertive military presence in East Asia, and tensions are ratcheting up between Beijing and the US' regional allies, including Japan.Japan scrambled jets in response to Chinese military activity near its airspace 392 times last year,<a target="_blank" class="" href="https://news.usni.org/2024/01/23/japan-scrambled-fighters-555-times-in-the-last-3-months-of-2023-defense-ministry-says"> according to the US Naval Institute,</a> but Monday's incursion is believed to be unprecedented.Among the issues behind the increase in tensions is the dispute over the Senkaku Islands (referred to as Diaoyu Islands in China), which Japan administers but China claims sovereignty over.The Chinese Coast Guard has entered Japanese waters near the islands several times, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/chinese-armed-vessels-patrol-waters-around-disputed-islands-angering-japan-2024-06-07/">including an incident in June,</a> and Japan has increased its military presence in the region.China has also clashed with the Philippines over disputed territory in the South China Sea, India over disputed Himalayan territory, and claims to own the entire independently governed island of Taiwan.Analysts believe that seizing control of Taiwan is <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/xi-biden-china-going-take-over-taiwan-war-report-apec-2023-12">among Chinese leader Xi Jinping's core goals,</a> but such a move could spark open conflict with the US and its allies, which have offered ambiguous pledges over whether they'd help defend the islands from attack.

Japan says China's increasingly aggressive air force breached its airspace for the first time ever

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Two German Navy ships are visiting the Philippines for the first time in over 20 years.</li><li>The port call comes amid clashes between Chinese and Philippines vessels in the South China Sea.</li></ul>Two German warships are visiting the Philippines for the first time in over 20 years after making a notable transit through the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/red-flags-tell-us-when-chinas-ready-to-invade-taiwan-2024-4">Taiwan Strait</a>.The port call, which Germany said is a reaffirmation of its commitment to a free and open Indo-Pacific region and rules-based international order, rhetoric commonly used by the US, as well as a testament to its defense cooperation with the Philippines, is set against the backdrop of <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/philippines-expects-us-to-intervene-if-china-takes-rusted-warship-2024-9">flaring tensions between China and the Philippines</a> due to disputes in the South China Sea.The vessels, the first-in-class frigate Baden-Württemberg and the Berlin-class supply ship Frankfurt am Main, arrived in Manila on Monday and will remain in port until Thursday.Per Andreas Pfaffernoschke, the German ambassador to the Philippines, the visit speaks to the ongoing cooperation between the two nations and "underscores how politically significant the Indo-Pacific region has become for Germany."In an opinion piece for <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.philstar.com/opinion/2024/09/15/2385308/german-navy-port-call-manila-we-stand-firm-protecting-international-rules-based-order">The Philippine Star</a>, Pfaffernoschke noted that Germany's visit also showcases its commitment to upholding international law and freedom of navigation, coming at a time "when the international rules-based order in the South China Sea is constantly being challenged."Pfaffernoschke added that recent incidents between China and the Philippines have raised concerns about security and stability in the area.<div type="image" title="A China Coast Guard ship (R) sailed past a Philippine Coast Guard (L) during a supply mission to Sabina Shoal in disputed waters of the South China Sea on August 26, 2024." height="2273" width="3410" msid="113404805" hostid="261" sizebytes="279892"></div>Clashes between China and the Philippines in the South China Sea have been escalating for months as China unjustly claims sovereignty over a majority of the South China Sea, defying international law while increasing efforts to <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/japan-china-sailed-ship-into-territorial-waters-2024-9">assert its authority in the area</a>.The Philippines says that China is engaging in aggressive behavior within its exclusive economic zone. Chinese vessels have been documented ramming and harassing Philippine vessels, as well as blocking them from sailing through Philippine waters.The port call by the German warships also comes at a particularly tense moment between Berlin and Beijing. While traveling to Manila, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/german-warships-sailed-taiwan-strait-first-time-in-decades-2024-9">the Baden-Württemberg and Frankfurt am Main transited the Taiwan Strait</a>, sparking backlash from China.<div type="image" title="The front-left of the German Navy frigate Baden-Württemberg at port, with churning waters below and a gray sky above." height="3565" width="5347" msid="113404803" hostid="261" sizebytes="1056226"></div>Unlike most countries that acknowledge that the strait is an international waterway open for freedom of navigation, China claims the strait as its waters."The waters of the Taiwan Strait, from both shores toward the middle of the Strait, are China's internal waters, then territorial sea, then contiguous zone, and then exclusive economic zone," Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesperson Mao Ning <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.fmprc.gov.cn/eng/xw/fyrbt/lxjzh/202409/t20240909_11487817.html">said</a> last week, noting that countries who navigate the strait should do it in accordance with Chinese and international laws.When the Baden-Württemberg and Frankfurt am Main sailed through the strait last week, German Defense Ministry Boris Pistorius asserted this example of innocent passage was reasonable. "International waters are international waters," he <a target="_blank" rel=" nofollow" class="" href="https://x.com/BMVg_Bundeswehr/status/1834500878260142184">said</a>. "It's the shortest and, given the weather conditions, the safest route. So we are passing through."In a regular press conference last Friday, Mao <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.fmprc.gov.cn/eng/xw/fyrbt/lxjzh/202409/t20240913_11490441.html">said</a> China "firmly" opposes " any act of provocation under the pretext of freedom of navigation that harms China's sovereignty and security."The People's Liberation Army's Eastern Theater Command took things further, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.voanews.com/a/china-condemns-german-navy-s-transit-of-taiwan-strait/7784135.html">saying</a> "the German side's behavior increases security risks and sends the wrong signal," while the Chinese embassy in Berlin said that "the question of Taiwan is not a matter of 'freedom of navigation,' but of China's sovereignty and territorial integrity."

German warships visit the Philippines amid its South China Sea clashes after angering Beijing by sailing through the Taiwan Strait

<ul class="summary-list"><li>The US military may be forced to confront a Chinese invasion of Taiwan without top allies.</li><li>Japan, Australia, the UK and Canada are likely to provide no military forces to counter China.</li></ul>If the US decides to defend Taiwan from Chinese invasion, it may have to do so alone.Several of America's biggest allies are unlikely to commit troops to save Taiwan, either because they lack the military capability or don't want to risk all-out war with an increasingly formidable China, according to a new <a target="_blank" href="https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RRA3108-1.html">report</a> by the RAND Corp..For Japan, Australia, the UK and Canada, aid "would be confined to diplomatic support for Taiwan and endorsement of likely US sanctions on China," concluded RAND, an American think tank, which surveyed experts in the four nations. If this proves right, it means that any military response to a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-missing-how-china-could-seize-taiwan-without-invading-experts-2024-5">Chinese invasion</a> would be limited to American forces."Our respondents believe that the US will receive logistics and materiel support from other countries, but its forces will have to go it alone in responding to an invasion by China," Rafiq Dossani, a RAND senior economist who co-authored the study, told Business Insider. However, there was more support in Japan and Australia to commit their navies to assisting an American-led effort to break a Chinese blockade of Taiwan.That Canada, for example, might not be able or eager to rush to Taiwan's defense isn't a surprise. But for Japan, whose security would be gravely affected by a Chinese takeover of Taiwan, the issue is more complicated."Despite its military power, commitment to the region, and US backing, Japanese pacifism (both popular and constitutional) and the fear of a retaliatory attack by China are likely to limit Japan's <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-arming-taiwan-against-china-invasion-but-it-could-backfire-2023-11">military support for Taiwan</a>, perhaps only to logistics and supplies," RAND said. "Any support that they would offer to a US-led military response would likely be limited to logistics and materiel support."The goal of the RAND study, which was sponsored by Taiwan's Ministry of Foreign Affairs, was to examine how America's medium-sized allies may deter or mediate a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/chinas-taiwan-drills-looked-like-rehearsal-for-invasion-us-admiral-2024-5">conflict between China and Taiwan</a>, a democratic island that China's communist leaders consider a breakaway province. The US is highly dependent on its regional allies like South Korea and Japan for basing, but the prospect it would have to fight without their ships and troops against what's likely to be a larger Chinese force may tarnish its deterrent power.Researchers classified Japan, Australia, the UK and Canada as "middle powers," which RAND defined as nations "that are not small but lack the sheer size and influence to significantly disrupt the global order." The study excluded nations that already faced a risk of direct conflict with China, the US and their respective allies. India and South Korea were also excluded "because those countries have declared that they will not play a mediating role in a cross-Strait conflict."RAND sent questionnaires to 49 diplomats, defense officials, policy analysts, business executives, journalists and legislators in the four nations. The various responses shared "remarkably common" views about a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-doesnt-have-military-power-invade-taiwan-experts-csis-us-2024-1">China-Taiwan war</a>.What is especially striking is the pessimistic self-image. The British experts, for example, felt that "the UK's distant location and weak military assets, in addition to its trade dependence on China, lead to limited UK interest in defending Taiwan militarily."Nor do the four US allies believe that Beijing fears them enough to refrain from <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-missing-how-china-could-seize-taiwan-without-invading-experts-2024-5">attacking Taiwan</a>. "Our respondents thought that China views these four middle-power countries as too weak militarily to take on China on their own and as marginal players in a US-led coalition," the report found.On the other hand, America's top allies don't <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-trying-boost-its-economy-is-china-preparing-war-taiwan-2024-5">share</a> <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/red-flags-tell-us-when-chinas-ready-to-invade-taiwan-2024-4">American fears</a> that a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-military-china-missile-problem-getting-worse-2024-5">massive Chinese military buildup</a> and Chinese leader <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/xi-claim-us-trying-trick-china-invaded-taiwan-divide-allies-experts-2024-6">Xi Jinping's</a> avowed determination to "reunify" Taiwan with China are steps toward war, but rather may be nationalistic posturing. "According to our respondents, China's main goal is to legitimize its current domestic political system (i.e., the rule of the Chinese Communist Party)," the report said. "To accomplish this goal, China must be seen within as a great power, preeminent in Asia, and able to achieve high economic growth. An invasion of Taiwan would jeopardize such perceptions and thus be deemed an unacceptable risk relative to the status quo."<a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/how-taiwan-seals-would-fight-a-chinese-military-invasion-2021-12">Taiwan's military</a> is not inconsequential, with nearly 200,000 active-duty soldiers, anti-ship missiles and <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/how-taiwan-could-use-sea-mines-to-stop-chinese-invasion-2024-3">mines</a>, and soon F-16 fighters and submarines. But this is a fraction of <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-showed-how-easily-no-notice-it-can-surround-taiwan-2024-6">China's military</a> might, and Taiwan would probably need outside assistance to repel an invasion or <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-missing-how-china-could-seize-taiwan-without-invading-experts-2024-5">break a blockade</a>. While the US would provide the bulk of such a relief effort, allied contributions would be vital, as would unfettered use of bases in Japan and Australia.To American hardliners already resentful that some <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-didnt-scare-nato-defense-spending-putin-did-experts-2024-2">NATO nations </a>aren't spending enough to defend Europe, the reluctance of its allies may smack of cowardice, and stick the US with the burden of Pacific security. But this may also reflect military and geographic reality. Canada's small military could muster only a token force for Taiwan's defense. Britain's shrinking armed forces, which already have European commitments, would struggle just to dispatch a small carrier task force 6,000 miles to the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-ax-attack-philippines-south-china-sea-grab-territory-experts-2024-6">South China Sea</a>.Though <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/aukus-plans-for-new-submarine-base-amid-increased-undersea-competition-2023-5">Australia</a> is a Pacific nation, and has diesel-electric submarines and F-35 stealth fighters, it still lacks the ability to project and sustain military operations 5,000 miles away in Taiwan.But the biggest question mark is Japan: Okinawa is about 500 miles from Taiwan, Japan has territorial disputes with China over various islands in the East China Sea, and the Japanese military is rated among the 10 most powerful in the world. Furthermore, Japan's territory and the US military bases it hosts will be essential to any <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-plans-turn-taiwan-strait-into-drone-hellscape-against-china-2024-6">US effort</a> to counter China.Yet if Japan, Australia, Britain and Canada are reluctant to confront China, there are actions they can take to help Taiwan. RAND recommends that they create a joint plan for trade sanctions to deter China from attacking Taiwan. In addition, the four middle powers could play a role in mediators to prevent a Taiwan war from happening."Indeed, middle powers might be the only ones that can play a mediating role in such a conflict if tensions between the great powers were to escalate," the study noted. "However, as of this report's writing, no middle power has enough influence over both great powers to play such a role, even in coalition with other middle powers."Which means these middle-ranked nations need to build up their capabilities, military and otherwise. "To build credibility with both great powers, the four middle powers need to rebuild and bolster their strategic autonomy, material power, and commitment to the Asia-Pacific region."The study also implicitly raises questions about how much the US can count on its NATO allies for support outside Europe. While NATO nations did send small contingents during the Afghan war, confronting China is different."I think that NATO should take seriously the possibility of European middle powers preferring not to be involved in a conflict in which their adversary does not directly threaten their national security," Dossani said."Michael Peck is a defense writer whose work has appeared in Forbes, Defense News, Foreign Policy magazine, and other publications. He holds an MA in political science from Rutgers Univ. Follow him on <a target="_blank" href="https://www.twitter.com/@mipeck1">Twitter</a> and <a target="_blank" href="https://www.linkedin.com/in/mipeck/">LinkedIn</a>.

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