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<keyword id="22003705" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Indian-traders" source="keywords">Indian traders</keyword> involved in <keyword id="22003703" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="border-trade" source="keywords">border trade</keyword> with China through the <keyword id="22003704" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Lipulekh-pass" source="keywords">Lipulekh pass</keyword> in Pithoragarh district since 1992, have requested the central government to take up the issue of resumption of border trade through this route with Beijing. The trade route was closed rather suddenly after the outbreak of the Covid-19 pandemic in 2019, forcing Indian traders to return from the <keyword id="22003706" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Taklakot-mart" source="keywords">Taklakot mart</keyword> in Tibet leaving behind their woollen products. Five years have passed but the route has not been opened, an organisation of border traders in Dharchula said. The traders who belong to the <keyword id="22005864" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Bhotia-tribe" source="keywords">Bhotia tribe</keyword> started to raise their demand for reopening of the trade route through Lipulekh after China recently began the process of implementing a pact, in which it had agreed to open all 14 trade passes with Nepal. The implementation of the agreement inked by China and Nepal in December, 2022 began on May 25 this year, when China opened Piangi pass situated in Dolpa district of eastern Nepal, president of Bharat Tibetan Simant Vyapar Samiti, Dharchula Jeewan Singh Rongkali said. Three more passes along the Indo-Tibet border in the western region of Nepal that fall in the districts of Humla, Bajang and Darchula will be opened on June 20, 30 and 25 respectively, he said. "We have so far sent 22 applications to the government of India requesting it to take up with the Chinese authorities the reopening of the trade route through Lipulekh pass but have received no response so far," Rongkali said. According to Rongkali, Indian tribal traders from Dharchula alone have left trading items worth Rs 15 lakh in <keyword id="22005865" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="taklakot" source="keywords">Taklakot</keyword> Mart of Tibet at the time of closure of border trade in 2019, following the Covid-19 pandemic. "We have no information if our stored goods are safe or in a state of decay. They were stored in plywood covers at the time of closure of trade," Rongkali said. "We want trade with China to be resumed through Lipulekh pass but if for some reason it is not possible then the traders should be given 15 days' time to go to Taklakot to ring back their goods," he said. Goods of over 450 Indian tribal traders have been lying there for the last 5 years, he said. According to Rongkali, over 450 Indian traders used to supply essential goods to villagers of over 45 villages of western Tibet through this trade route since 1992. "Out of over 1.5 crore trade annually, we have paid lakhs of rupees towards customs duty and other taxes to the government of India," said Rongkali. China announced in the year 2022 that it will build trans Himalayan multi-dimensional connectivity with Nepal to restructure the road and communication network with that country, Rongkali said. "As China has not given permission to open our passes along the Indo-China border, we have an apprehension that the mart made for Indian traders in Gakkhu town of Taklakot could be handed over to Nepalese traders," said Rongkali.

Indian traders demand resumption of border trade with China through Lipulekh pass

Last week, the President of the United States, <keyword id="19919748" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="joe-biden" source="keywords">Joe Biden</keyword>, announced significant tariffs on a range of <keyword id="20139085" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Chinese-products" source="keywords">Chinese products</keyword> to protect American workers from unfair trade practices. The targetted measures include a 100% tariff on <keyword id="6354973" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="electric-vehicles" source="Orion">electric vehicles</keyword>, a 50% tariff on semiconductors and solar cells, and a 25% tariffs on batteries, steel and aluminium products, some critical minerals, and essential health equipment like medical gloves, syringes and needles. In his address from the Rose Garden of the White House, Biden said America can continue to buy any kind of car they want, "but we're never going to allow China to unfairly control the market for these cars. Period." He claimed that the Chinese government has been investing state funds in various Chinese companies for years, spanning industries across the above-mentioned sectors. How does this brewing geopolitical <keyword id="20736760" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="trade-war" source="keywords">trade war</keyword> impact <keyword id="20742235" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Indian-firms" source="keywords">Indian firms</keyword>? Experts say the impact could be in two ways, benefitting some sectors, while harming the few others. Let’s start with the bad news. <cmsannotation type="cmsannotation" annotationid="Threat to Indian firms" comment="subhead" text="Threat to Indian firms">Threat to Indian firms</cmsannotation> Beijing offers significant subsidies on most of these products, leading to surplus production that exceeds domestic and even regular export demand. Subsequently, Chinese companies are known to flood the global markets with surplus products at unreasonably low prices, forcing local manufacturers out of business in many countries, including <keyword id="19895063" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="India" source="keywords">India</keyword>. A prime example of this in practice can be found in the steel sector, where weak domestic demand is pushing the world’s largest steel producer China to offload surplus production into Indian markets at cheaper prices. Indian steel manufacturers are already struggling to compete with a glut of cheaper Chinese steel, with shipments nearly doubling year-on-year in the financial year ending March 2024. “India is already under grave threat of import because all major steel consuming economies are shutting their doors on these steel producing countries. We are highly vulnerable to surging and predatory import,” said Alok Sahay, secretary general of the Indian Steel Association, to Reuters. Global trade experts say that a majority of Chinese products are sold at unreasonably low prices in global markets because the companies in these sectors do not have to worry about profits. They are heavily subsidised by the Chinese government. <keyword id="20279291" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Steel-Authority-of-India" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="Steel Authority of India" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="Steel Authority of India">Steel Authority of India</keyword>’s (SAIL) chairman Amarendu Prakash also said that they are keenly watching Chinese imports after the US tariff increases. Additionally, China has been accused of employing anti-competitive strategies like compelling foreign companies to transfer their technology in order to operate in China. These factors have led to the US effectively shutting its door on several Chinese products through heightened tariffs, and other developed markets like Canada are also likely to follow suit. White House also emphasised that it continues to consult with its partners and allies who are facing similar threats from China’s unfair trade practices and are keen on taking action. If more and more global markets restrict entry of Chinese products, the risk of the majority of such products being dumped in neighbouring India increases drastically. Trying to block Chinese excess production "is like squeezing a balloon. It shrinks in one place and pops out in another," William Reinsch, a trade expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, tells Reuters. <cmsannotation type="cmsannotation" annotationid="An opportunity also arises" comment="subhead" text="An opportunity also arises">An opportunity also arises</cmsannotation> While some products risk being dumped into the Indian market, in a few other cases, Indian firms could benefit from fresh openings in the lucrative US market. "Of the products affected, India has opportunities in face masks, PPE, syringes &amp;needles, medical gloves, aluminium, iron, and steel. Opportunity may come in China also with retaliation, provided we have market access in products targeted by China," Ajay Sahai, Director General of the Federation of Indian Export Organisations (FIEO), told ANI. However, China is not likely to retaliate against the US tariffs at the moment, say experts, though the country’s Ministry of Commerce said it would take 'resolute measures to safeguard its own rights and interests' "China's economy is fragile. With household spending and the property market on the wane, manufacturing for export markets is one of its few bright spots. Beijing will not want to cut off its nose to spite its face. More broadly, China is desperately trying to encourage new foreign investment. Rash retaliatory action could spoil its case," Moody's Analytics explained in a recent report. Out of China's USD 420 billion exports to the US, only USD 18 billion is impacted due to the latest hike in tariffs — representing slightly over 4% and therefore considered marginal. But Sahai says that this market will continue to grow with time and provides an opportunity to India and other competitors to chip in the supply gap. Ajay Srivastava, the founder of the Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI), also echoes Sahai’s opinions. He emphasised that the increased duties on Chinese face masks, syringes, needles, medical gloves, and natural graphite offer a substantial opportunity for India, as quoted by ANI. "By ramping up production and export of these in-demand products, India could enhance its trade footprint in the US market," he added. In terms of products like electric vehicles and semiconductors, India remains a net importer, and therefore, may not be in a position to capitalise right now. In the long term, however, as India begins semiconductor production at scale in 2025, there will be opportunities to export some of it to the US and other European countries, offering fresh impetus for domestic manufacturing. As the security risks associated with importing Chinese semiconductors prompts more and more trade barriers from the Western countries, demand for supply from India is likely to grow. Efforts are already underway for the establishment of four large semiconductor plants in India, with three located in Gujarat and one in Assam. Last fiscal year, Indian exports to the US dipped marginally by 1.32 per cent to $77.5 billion as against $78.54 billion in 2022-23. The new development now gives an unique opportunity to turn the tide over the next few years. Overall, some sectors like steel and aluminium do face a serious challenge due to the fresh US tariffs on Chinese products. However, the development will open new avenues for Western market entry and expansion for several other products. (With inputs from agencies)

US-China tariff war could benefit several sectors in India while harming a few others

<ul class="summary-list"><li>India is trying to modernize its military of 1.5 million people with lessons from Ukraine.</li><li>Until recent years, Russia supplied India with many weapons such as tanks and jets.</li></ul>As India boosts defense spending amid tensions with China and Pakistan, it is closely studying the Ukraine conflict for clues to the future of warfare and how to thwart its neighbors.Some lessons that Indian experts have already drawn: India needs lots of artillery, drones and cyberwarfare capabilities.Comparing Ukraine to India is tricky. Ukraine faces one major enemy — Russia — while India must contend with its old enemy Pakistan to the west, and an increasingly powerful China on its northwest frontier. The Russo-Ukraine war is mostly being fought over an Eastern European landscape of plains and forest, with a moderately good road network suitable for mechanized warfare. India must prepare for combat in a variety of terrain and climate conditions, including desert, jungle and some of the tallest mountains on Earth.India is also trying to modernize and standardize equipment for its armed forces, which comprise about 1.5 million personnel armed with a potpourri of equipment from several nations, as well as indigenous Indian gear. Until recent years, Russia supplied many weapons such as tanks and jets, but India is increasingly acquiring arms from Western nations, including American howitzers, French jet fighters, and Israeli drones.The Indian Army's artillery, for example, includes more than 3,000 weapons and multiple rocket launchers, including Russian, American, Swedish and South Korean designs. Indian observers believe Ukraine shows the importance of having plentiful and modern artillery. Artillery has arguably become the decisive combat arm in that war, with Russian firing <a target="_blank" href="https://www.politico.eu/article/ukrainian-army-suffers-from-artillery-shell-hunger/">10,000 shells per day</a> and advancing, while a munitions shortage has limited Ukraine to around 2,000 shells per day. This deluge of firepower has forced both armies to dig in, and turned the conflict into trench warfare."Looking at the demonstration of artillery fire in the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war, two lessons are available to the Indian Army," wrote Amrita Jash, an assistant professor at the Manipal Academy of Higher Education, in a <a target="_blank" href="https://www.orfonline.org/public/uploads/upload/20240118114645.pdf">report</a> for the Observer Research Foundation, an Indian think tank. "First, that firepower can be a 'battle-winning factor,' and second, that the time between acquiring the target to shooting has drastically reduced: where it once took five to 10 minutes, it now takes only a minute or two."Indeed, India already planning to <a target="_blank" href="https://www.thehindu.com/news/national/army-draws-lessons-from-ukraine-war-revises-its-artillery-requirements/article67315823.ece">modernize</a> its artillery arsenal, including switching to 155-mm howitzers — the standard NATO caliber — and developing longer-range shells and rockets.<div type="image" title="Ukrainian servicemen fire an artillery in the direction of Siversk, Donetsk Oblast, Ukraine on April 01, 2024." height="3000" width="4500" msid="109704222" hostid="261" sizebytes="757078"></div>The air war over Ukraine has proven to be a surprise, especially given Russian superiority in numbers of aircraft and technology. Anti-aircraft missiles have deterred the air forces of both sides from venturing into enemy airspace, with Russian aircraft limited to firing stand-off missiles at Ukrainian cities rather than providing air support for its ground troops. <a target="_blank">Drones</a> have become the stars and workhorses of the air war, with both sides deploying — and losing — drones in the hundreds of thousands.There are lessons here for Indian airpower, according to Arjun Subramaniam, a retired Indian Air Force air vice marshal who helped write the ORF report. India must prepare for "gaining control of the air in limited time and space conditions in a short, high-intensity limited conflict as well as in a longer, protracted conflict." The Air Force must also ensure that its plans are synchronized with ground and naval forces. India should also continue to focus on suppressing enemy air defenses, "particularly against an adversary that is more interested in denying rather than controlling the airspace."Not surprisingly, Subramaniam wants the Indian military to increase drone development and production. But he is also concerned about the possibility of a mass drone attack on India. "Of greater importance is the need to rapidly develop counter-drone capabilities that would be essential in responding to large-scale surprise attacks and retain effective second-strike capabilities," he wrote.<a target="_blank" href="https://www.economist.com/europe/2024/03/20/the-cyberwar-in-ukraine-is-as-crucial-as-the-battle-in-the-trenches">Cyberwarfare</a> has also emerged in Ukraine as a crucial tool in everything from hacking into military computers and critical infrastructure to purveying propaganda and deepfakes in global media. ORF researcher Shimona Mohan noted "the increasing role of largely civilian organizations like big tech in conflict situations and the deepening interplay of civil-military partnerships around dual-use technologies like AI."Mohan recommends that India invest in cyberwarfare, as other nations are doing. "However, if this is not feasible for socio-political or economic reasons, it should be a priority for countries to ensure that their strategic geopolitical allies are formidable tech powers—for instance in this war, Ukraine received much support from its more tech-savvy partners like the US and private tech companies."Michael Peck is a defense writer whose work has appeared in Forbes, Defense News, Foreign Policy magazine, and other publications. He holds an MA in political science from Rutgers Univ. Follow him on <a target="_blank" href="https://www.twitter.com/@mipeck1">Twitter</a> and <a target="_blank" href="https://www.linkedin.com/in/mipeck/">LinkedIn</a>.

India is drawing lessons from Ukraine to counter China's military might 

<ul class="summary-list"><li>India wants to unseat China as the new factory of the world.</li><li>Modi is set to stay in power for another five years, but the results of the election are going to make it harder to beat China.</li></ul>India's economy is on a roll, chalking up <a target="_blank" href="https://www.mospi.gov.in/sites/default/files/press_release/PressNoteGDP31052024.pdf">8.2% GDP growth</a> in the last fiscal year and a boom in <a target="_blank" href="https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/india-eyes-100-bln-annual-foreign-direct-investment-coming-years-it-minister-2024-01-17/">foreign investments.</a>The growth is in part thanks to a <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-india-supply-chain-covid-sanctions-manufacturers-relocating-tariffs-options-2022-12">shift in supply chains</a> and investment flows as companies try to stop relying solely on China.This has boosted Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi's appeal, sending him to a historic third term as the country's prime minister in the country's general election.But Modi's win this time around also <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/indian-election-results-shocking-blow-narendra-modi-2024-6?mrfhud=true">comes with a huge loss</a>.While Modi is still hugely popular in India, his party — <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/indian-election-results-shocking-blow-narendra-modi-2024-6">Bharatiya Janata Party, or BJP</a> — lost its majority in Parliament, reflecting resentment among voters amid rising <a target="_blank" href="https://www.reuters.com/world/india/indias-richest-1-has-highest-concentration-wealth-decades-study-shows-2024-03-20/">inequality.</a>"The problem is most Indians have not adequately participated in the fruits of an economy with gaudy headline numbers," wrote Atman Trivedi, a senior fellow with the Atlantic Council's South Asia Center in a <a target="_blank" href="https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-atlanticist/experts-react-modi-loses-ground-electoral-surprise/">Tuesday note.</a> "Growth is unequal, and jobs are few and far between."India's unemployment rate rose to 8.1% in April from 7.4% in March, according to the <a target="_blank" href="https://cmie.com/kommon/bin/sr.php?kall=warticle&amp;dt=20240502160006&amp;msec=476">Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy,</a> a private think tank. The country has a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://affiliate.insider.com?h=881bbd696b99c4065e343b97a60624443ddd9aabed87bc59213e9c4e53b5de60&amp;postID=665fc5bbe01a10ede1be40ec&amp;postSlug=india-election-results-complicates-plans-unseat-china-modi-bjp-2024-6&amp;site=bi&amp;u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.nature.com%2Farticles%2Fd41586-023-03915-5">longstanding brain drain issue.</a><h2 id="2c7371a5-8197-477c-a8db-86744aed6de4">India wants to unseat China as the factory of the world</h2>BJP's likely loss of its majority is a testament to India's political system — but it will also make the dream of becoming the next China harder to achieve.<a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/india-business-market-entry-barriers-tariffs-supply-chain-china-2023-6">Decision-making and policy changes</a> in the world's largest democracy, after all, can take far longer than they do in Communist China — a one-party state."Coalition governments require compromises. That reality could complicate any plans for ambitious structural reforms on land, labor, or opening India's markets to unfinished and intermediate inputs," wrote the Atlantic Council's Trivedi, who is also a partner at Albright Stonebridge Group.India's stock markets tanked on the shock election results, with the benchmark <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/sensex">Sensex</a> index crashing over 5% in one day on Tuesday following the news. It rebounded on Wednesday.Despite the knee-jerk reaction, most analysts are optimistic about India's economic outlook given that Modi is still in charge."Modi's broader economic reform agenda is likely to remain intact. And so, fears of India's key economic reforms unraveling are overdone," wrote Vishnu Varathan, the chief economist of Asia excluding Japan at Mizuho Bank.<h2 id="d51e0b52-c0b2-432c-977a-5640abaef074">India needs to get rich before it gets old</h2>But India has a longer-term problem: aging.India is the world's <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/india-overtake-china-worlds-most-populous-nation-2023-un-2022-7">most populous country</a>. With a 1.4 billion population, it has a huge pool of young people; <a target="_blank" href="https://www.spglobal.com/en/research-insights/special-reports/look-forward/india-s-demographic-dividend-the-key-to-unlocking-its-global-ambitions">65% of its population</a> is under the age of 35.But aging is "rapidly progressing," according to the <a target="_blank" href="https://india.unfpa.org/en/news/indias-ageing-population-why-it-matters-more-ever">United Nations Population Fund.</a> By 2050, one in every five persons in India will be 60 years old or above, the fund wrote in a <a target="_blank" href="https://india.unfpa.org/sites/default/files/pub-pdf/20230926_india_ageing_report_2023_web_version_.pdf">report last year.</a>So, even though India has grown rapidly in recent years, it will need to grow much faster to get rich before it gets old, Raghuram Rajan, a professor at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business, told <a target="_blank" href="https://www.npr.org/sections/planet-money/2024/06/04/g-s1-2226/india-election-democracy-china-economy-manufacturing">NPR's "Planet Money"</a> in a podcast.It's not enough to power up India's manufacturing sector in the wake of China's breakneck growth — because so many other countries are doing the same thing, added Rajan, who is a former head of the Central Bank of India and a former chief economist of the International Monetary Fund.He said India will do better to capitalize on its services industry, especially since so many Indians are English speakers.Despite its challenges, India is still expected to post healthy growth in the near future. The IMF <a target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener" href="https://www.imf.org/en/Countries/IND">forecasts</a> India's economy will grow by 6.8% this fiscal year and 6.5% next fiscal year.

India wants to be the new China. Modi's shock election result shows it won't be easy.

<ul class="summary-list"><li>"We will not stop at that (three carriers)," India's defense minister recently said.</li><li>Five or six aircraft carriers would give India a force equal to that of China.</li></ul>India may build a fleet of five to six new aircraft carriers, according to a comment from the country's defense minister that's been widely debated about whether that's a good strategy or if the offhand remark was even serious.The Indian Navy operates two small aircraft carriers. Four more would give India a carrier force on par with China's growing one. And it would not be much smaller — at least in number of vessels — than the US Navy's 11 supercarriers.But whether this ambitious shipbuilding project will happen is another matter. Many Indian experts are convinced it's a bad idea.Exactly what the Indian government is thinking isn't clear. During an <a target="_blank" href="https://www.tribuneindia.com/news/india/work-on-third-aircraft-carrier-to-start-soon-more-to-follow-says-rajnath-621319">interview</a> with an Indian newspaper regarding plans to construct a third aircraft carrier, Defense Minister Rajnath Singh said India would build yet more. "We will not stop at that (three carriers)," he said. "We will make five, six more."Some Indian experts aren't sure the government is even serious about this. The defense minister "seemingly made an off-the-cuff remark that was picked up by the media," Abhijit Singh, a former Indian naval officer and now an analyst at the Observer Research Foundation think tank in New Delhi, told Business Insider. "He was only trying to dispel suggestions that the government is resistant to a proposal for a third aircraft carrier."Nonetheless, there are compelling reasons why India might want a large carrier fleet. India's rival China now has three carriers, including the newly launched 80,000-ton <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/chinas-newest-aircraft-carrier-seen-with-aircraft-mock-ups-images-2024-4">Fujian</a>, and may aim for a fleet of six carriers by 2035. China — which <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/chinese-troops-beat-indian-soldiers-batons-wrapped-in-barbed-wire-2020-6">fought</a> border clashes with India in the <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/after-himalayan-clash-india-prepares-navy-to-take-on-china-2021-6">Himalayas</a> in 2020 — is beginning to project its power into the <a target="_blank" href="https://warontherocks.com/2024/05/its-still-the-indian-ocean-parsing-sino-indian-naval-competition-where-it-counts/">Indian Ocean</a>, which is India's maritime backyard."It is expected that the Chinese will permanently station one of its CBGs [carrier battle groups] in the Indian Ocean, supported by its various bases in Djibouti (on the western edge of the Indian Ocean), <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/rapid-construction-at-cambodia-base-amid-concern-about-china-presence-2021-6">Ream in Cambodia</a> (on the eastern edge of the Indian Ocean), and Gwadar in Pakistan, Hambantota in Sri Lanka, and Kyaukpyu in Myanmar," warned India's <a target="_blank" href="https://swarajyamag.com/defence/countering-chinas-expansion-india-to-build-five-to-six-more-aircraft-carriers-in-future-defence-minister-rajnath-singh">Swarajya</a> magazine.Interestingly, Swarajya magazine also suggested that carriers could project Indian power into the South China Sea, which is China's maritime backyard. Indian warships have periodically sailed in those waters.<div type="image" title="A view from the sloped bow of the INS Vikrant that carries MiG-29K fighter jets." height="1333" width="2000" msid="110619274" hostid="261" sizebytes="239670"></div>India has two carriers of around 45,000 tons each: the Vikramaditya (a refurbished former Soviet vessel) and the Vikrant, India's first home-built carrier. Both are <a target="_blank" href="https://interestingengineering.com/lists/ski-jumps-catapults-aircraft-carrier">ski-jump</a> designs that launch the troubled Soviet-era MiG-29K under its own power because it lacks catapults. Despite early speculation that the proposed third carrier would be a 65,000-ton ski-jump design similar to Britain's <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/uks-flagship-carrier-embarrassing-setback-pulls-out-big-nato-exercise-2024-2">Queen Elizabeth-class</a>, the Indian government appears to be opting for a <a target="_blank" href="https://www.newsweek.com/india-third-aircraft-carrier-china-indian-pacific-ocean-region-1847935">45,000-ton vessel</a> similar to the Vikrant, and carrying French-made <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/frances-rafale-fighter-jet-popular-dassault-cant-keep-up-2024-3">Rafale fighters</a>.This means that Indian carriers would continue to be less than half the size of the 100,000-ton, nuclear-powered US Nimitz- and Ford-class behemoths, which are equipped with steam or electromagnetic catapults that can launch heavier planes, especially airborne early warning aircraft; China's Fujian also uses an advanced electromagnetic catapult. They would also be less expensive, with the third Indian carrier estimated at around $5 billion, compared to $13 billion for a Ford-class carrier.In fact, some Indian naval experts would prefer a larger carrier equipped with catapults. "Small aircraft carriers, like those India possesses, are increasingly vulnerable and unlikely to play a significant role in future conflicts," Singh, the defense analyst, said. "Unfortunately, the country lacks the funding for a large carrier and can only afford another small flattop. This presents a predicament with no easy solutions."On the other hand, there is a reason why America builds enormously expensive aircraft carriers. Its global interests arguably require the ability to dispatch and maintain floating airfields around the world, often in distant places where airbases aren't available. For India and China, which have a more regional focus, smaller vessels may suffice.For India, carriers are more than floating airfields. They are symbols of national power. Thus regardless of their military utility against a powerful adversary like China, carriers would enable India support other operations, such as humanitarian, peacekeeping and anti-piracy missions."The consensus among India's maritime observers is that the aircraft carrier remains central to maritime strategy, not just for its ability to dominate the littoral but also for its crucial peacetime role," said Abhijit Singh. "In less-than-war situations, the flattop can shift the psychological balance in ways no other naval platform can. Despite its drawbacks, the aircraft carrier's aura and impact in peacetime operations are unmatched."Michael Peck is a defense writer whose work has appeared in Forbes, Defense News, Foreign Policy magazine, and other publications. He holds an MA in political science from Rutgers Univ. Follow him on <a target="_blank" href="https://www.twitter.com/@mipeck1">Twitter</a> and <a target="_blank" href="https://www.linkedin.com/in/mipeck/">LinkedIn</a>.

A bizarre comment stirred speculation India may try to match China's carrier fleet 

<ul class="summary-list"><li>The West's sanctions are pushing Russia to develop alternative payment systems with its trade partners.</li><li>Russia's SPFS and Mir systems, China's CIPS, and India's UPI help aim to challenge SWIFT's dominance.</li></ul>The West's tightening sanctions are driving Russia nearly up against the wall — but <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-economy-how-moscow-pays-war-economy-afloat-sanctions-ukraine-2024-2">Moscow keeps finding ways</a> to keep the country's economy going.Russia's trade partners, too, are looking for ways to continue doing business with the country via alternative systems to rival the Western-led, US dollar-dominated global financial order.Discussions about <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/de-dollarization-reasons-why-countries-move-away-us-dollar-2023-7">de-dollarization</a> have been gaining traction in recent years as Western-led sanctions against Russia related to its invasion of Ukraine are making other countries wary of the potential consequences of crossing Washington.There's been some success, with trade between Russia and China, as well as Russia and India, chugging along until recently. Now, even <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-economy-all-china-banks-refuse-yuan-ruble-transfers-sanctions-2024-8">Chinese banks</a> — buckling under the pressure of tightening US sanctions — are pushing back on processing transactions for Russian companies.But Russia and its partners have been looking at other ways to do business outside the Western-led order, in part because technology is making it easier to process payments and get around the US-dollar-dominated global financial order.As <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.brookings.edu/articles/the-changing-role-of-the-us-dollar/">Brookings researchers</a> Sam Boocker and David Wessel explained in an August post, "innovations in payment technology could reduce the dollar's role in the global economy."To be sure, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/currencies/king-dollar-reign-supreme-3-reasons-dedollarization-fears-yuan-euro-2023-5">king dollar</a> is entrenched in the world's financial system, so it's unlikely to be dethroned, most experts say. However, new platforms are coming up that could chip away at its dominance.These are some of the alternative trading and payment systems that are trying to crack the US-led trade and payments order:<h2 id="e3db2e40-91e6-40ce-8ea6-bd2555a945d0">Russia set up SPFS and Mir years ago, citing 'risks'</h2>Russia prepared for even more sanctions years ago, following trade restrictions after it annexed Crimea in 2014."There are risks in using the global financial networks," Elvira Nabiullina, governor of Russia's central bank, told <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.cnbc.com/2018/05/23/russias-central-bank-governor-touts-moscow-alternative-to-swift-transfer-system-as-protection-from-us-sanctions.html">CNBC in 2018.</a> "Therefore, since back in 2014, we have been developing our own systems."Some Russian banks were banned from the SWIFT messaging system for banking transactions following Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Moscow has been touting its homegrown ruble-based payment system — the System for Transfer of Financial Messages, or SPFS — that was set up in 2014.<div type="image" title="Russian President Vladimir Putin meets with Central Bank chief Elvira Nabiullina" height="3605" width="5408" msid="112978409" hostid="261" sizebytes="1587422"></div>At the end of 2023, users of SPFS included 556 organizations from 20 countries. Of these, 159 — about a quarter of total participants — were foreign and their use of the messaging system more than doubled from 2022, according to Russia's central bank, per <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://interfax.com/newsroom/top-stories/103040/">Interfax</a>.In July, Russia and Iran — another heavily-sanctioned country — finalized details to connect the banking systems of the two countries, Iran's <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://en.mehrnews.com/news/217372/Iran-Russia-finalize-integration-of-national-payment-systems">Mehr news agency</a> reported.This means that Russia's Mir payment system would work with Iran's Shetab banking system, allowing for both pariah states to trade more smoothly.<h2 id="dc8236fe-da57-4f21-8a5f-0a2f6f46c77a">China's CIPS is growing quickly</h2>China's Cross-Border Interbank Payment System, or CIPS, is an alternative system that processes payments in Chinese yuan.Launched in 2015, CIPS has about <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.cips.com.cn/en/2024-08/01/article_2024080115043180408.html">2,000 participants as of July,</a> compared to <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.swift.com/about-us">11,000 for SWIFT.</a>CIPS "has been growing rapidly in recent years," the Brookings researchers wrote.In 2023, CIPS processed over 6.6 million transactions, totaling 123 trillion Chinese yuan, or $17.3 trillion — up nearly 30% by value from a year ago, according to <a target="_blank" class="" href="http://www.pbc.gov.cn/en/3688110/3688172/5188125/5327700/2024041216580199504.pdf">China's central bank.</a><h2 id="a578a224-e5df-4b31-8404-e02cff739d93">India's UPI is already used extensively</h2>India — now a key trading part of Russia — also has its own system.The country's <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.npci.org.in/what-we-do/upi/product-overview">Unified Payments Interface,</a> or UPI, was developed in 2016 and is <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://edition.cnn.com/2024/04/29/tech/india-digital-payments-upi-growth-hnk-intl/index.html">used extensively</a> in India today, even among everyday consumers.The payment system has gotten so big that it's not just limited to India. The National Payments Corporation of India, which runs the platform, has partnered with financial institutions in other countries, including France, the United Arab Emirates, and Singapore.<div type="image" title="A man behind piles of fruits at his stall in India that features a QR payment code." height="701" width="1024" msid="112978412" hostid="261" sizebytes="98408"></div>If the UPI's footprint expands to more countries, it could be a way to bypass the SWIFT banking system, wrote Evan Freidin, an international relations analyst, for the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpreter/india-s-plan-world-without-cash">Lowy Institute,</a> an Australian think tank."It is significant that UPI can also be used to bypass the SWIFT banking system, enabling payments with sanctioned countries such as Russia, thereby weakening US financial hegemony," Freidin wrote in July.<h2 id="48c27799-0d46-40f6-b4b7-e9225b102131">Central banks are looking at digital currencies</h2>Countries are also increasingly looking to build central bank digital currencies, or CBDCs. These currencies are similar to cryptocurrencies but are <a target="_blank" rel=" nofollow" href="https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2023/11/cbdcs-how-different-cryptocurrency-stablecoin/">issued and backed by central banks</a>.The <a target="_blank" rel="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/currencies/cbdcs-crypto-central-banks-bis-digital-currencies-bitcoin-stablecoins-tether-2021-9">Bank for International Settlements,</a> an organization of central banks, is overseeing the trial of a CBDC platform for wholesale cross-border payment.Participants of the project, called <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.reuters.com/technology/saudi-arabia-joins-bis-led-central-bank-digital-currency-trial-2024-06-05/">mBridge,</a> include China, Hong Kong, Thailand, the United Arab Emirates, and Saudi Arabia. It's dominated by Beijing, which has already rolled out the digital Chinese yuan.<div type="image" title="Woman with a face mask using a touch screen at an exhibition booth for the e-renminbi." height="746" width="1024" msid="112978411" hostid="261" sizebytes="54016"></div>The Brookings researchers wrote that these CBDCs could "upend the dollar's role as a currency 'middleman' by reducing settlement times, making it cheaper and easier to trade non-dollar currencies."The CBDCs integrate messaging and payments, unlike current systems like SWIFT and major US dollar clearing system CHIPS.<h2 id="67caf2a1-65f8-470a-8a88-3f2e381242e9">Russia rushes into crypto</h2>As doors to transact in fiat money close, Russia is now looking to trade in cryptocurrencies.It's in such a rush to get the system up and running that it plans to start crypto exchange trials as soon as September 1, anonymous sources told <a target="_blank" rel=" nofollow" href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-08-26/russia-close-to-starting-trials-of-crypto-payments-exchanges?srnd=homepage-americas">Bloomberg in late August.</a>Creating this mode of payment has gotten more pressing because even <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-economy-all-china-banks-refuse-yuan-ruble-transfers-sanctions-2024-8">banks from China</a> are rejecting most transactions with Russian entities.<a target="_blank" rel=" nofollow" class="" href="http://www.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/74566">Russian President Vladimir Putin</a> himself said in July that Russia had to <a target="_blank" rel=" nofollow" class="" href="https://tass.com/economy/1818055">"seize the moment"</a> to create a legal framework for digital assets, as they are being increasingly used to settle international payments.<h2 id="15b13f44-3051-4887-85cf-66563ce70c10">Going back to barter trade</h2>If all else fails, there's also the age-old method of barter trade.In August, <a target="_blank" rel=" nofollow" class="" href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/first-russia-china-barter-trade-may-come-this-autumn-sources-say-2024-08-08/">Reuters</a> reported that Russia and China are planning to revive the practice of <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-economy-russia-china-barter-trade-us-secondary-sanctions-payments-2024-8">barter trade</a> to get around Western sanctions.The deals could involve agriculture and could come as soon as this fall, the news agency reported, citing anonymous trade and payments sources.The two countries are no strangers to barter.It was practiced during the <a target="_blank" rel=" nofollow" href="https://www.joc.com/maritime-news/soviet-union-allows-return-barter-some-trading-deals-partners-former-e-bloc_19910708.html">Soviet era</a> and <a target="_blank" rel=" nofollow" href="https://www.nytimes.com/1998/09/06/world/as-ruble-withers-russians-survive-on-barter.html">in the years following the bloc's collapse.</a> At the time, China was a key trading partner.In August 2022, the <a target="_blank" rel="" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/taliban-import-russia-oil-barter-exchange-afghanistan-raisin-minerals-medicine-2022-8">Taliban regime in Afghanistan</a> also discussed barter trade with Russia that could involve trading Russian crude oil products in exchange for raisins, minerals, and medicinal herbs, according to RIA Novosti, a Russian state-owned news agency.Last year, cash-strapped <a target="_blank" rel=" nofollow" class="" href="https://www.voanews.com/a/pakistan-allows-barter-trade-with-iran-afghanistan-russia-/7120806.html">Pakistan</a> authorized the barter trade of specific goods with Russia.In 2019, China <a target="_blank" href="https://www.reuters.com/article/markets/currencies/china-in-barter-deal-for-200000-tonnes-of-malaysian-palm-oil-report-idUSKCN1T22W0/">traded $150 million worth of palm oil</a> from Malaysia for a range of products and services, including natural resources and defense equipment.

Countries from Russia to China are building payments systems that could threaten the dollar's global dominance

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Japan says a Chinese surveillance plane violated its airspace on Monday.</li><li>It's the first recorded incursion by China into Japan's airspace.</li></ul>Japan on Monday said that a Chinese military plane violated its territorial airspace for the first time.The Japanese government<a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.asahi.com/ajw/articles/15403036"> said a Chinese Y-9 reconnaissance</a> plane had flown over the Danjo islands, west of the island of Kyushu, for around two minutes.At a press conference, Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshimasa Hayashi<a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/chinese-militarys-airspace-violation-is-utterly-unacceptable-japan-says-2024-08-27/"> </a>described the intrusion as "utterly unacceptable" and said it was"not only a serious violation of Japan's sovereignty but also threatens our security.""In recent years, China's military activities in the vicinity of our country have tended to expand and become more and more active," he said.Japan scrambled its jets in response to the intrusion, the <a target="_blank" href="https://uk.news.yahoo.com/japan-scrambles-jets-chinese-aircraft-141556130.html">AFP news wire reported</a><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://uk.news.yahoo.com/japan-scrambles-jets-chinese-aircraft-141556130.html">, </a>though no clashes with Chinese planes were reported.The Japanese foreign ministry said it had summoned China's top diplomat in Tokyo to protest the incident.In recent years, China has become an increasingly assertive military presence in East Asia, and tensions are ratcheting up between Beijing and the US' regional allies, including Japan.Japan scrambled jets in response to Chinese military activity near its airspace 392 times last year,<a target="_blank" class="" href="https://news.usni.org/2024/01/23/japan-scrambled-fighters-555-times-in-the-last-3-months-of-2023-defense-ministry-says"> according to the US Naval Institute,</a> but Monday's incursion is believed to be unprecedented.Among the issues behind the increase in tensions is the dispute over the Senkaku Islands (referred to as Diaoyu Islands in China), which Japan administers but China claims sovereignty over.The Chinese Coast Guard has entered Japanese waters near the islands several times, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/chinese-armed-vessels-patrol-waters-around-disputed-islands-angering-japan-2024-06-07/">including an incident in June,</a> and Japan has increased its military presence in the region.China has also clashed with the Philippines over disputed territory in the South China Sea, India over disputed Himalayan territory, and claims to own the entire independently governed island of Taiwan.Analysts believe that seizing control of Taiwan is <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/xi-biden-china-going-take-over-taiwan-war-report-apec-2023-12">among Chinese leader Xi Jinping's core goals,</a> but such a move could spark open conflict with the US and its allies, which have offered ambiguous pledges over whether they'd help defend the islands from attack.

Japan says China's increasingly aggressive air force breached its airspace for the first time ever

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Things are getting complicated for Apple when it comes to the chip sector. </li><li>Apple has long depended on China for manufacturing, but the relationship is getting complex. </li></ul>There's a bit of a storm whipping around the chip sector in Asia right now. That makes things complicated for <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/apple-china-vision-pro-mixed-reality-headset-supplier-supply-chain-2023-6">Apple</a>.Apple has been banking on India to emerge as a new global chip hub to help it <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/apple-halts-made-in-taiwan-label-anger-china-pelosi-visit-2022-8">reduce dependency on China, </a>which Foxconn — a Taiwanese electronics giant and assembler of iPhones — helped turn into one of the world's most important manufacturing hubs for Apple.Supply chain woes triggered during the pandemic by Beijing's persistent lockdowns, as well as <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-china-tech-war-computer-chips-semiconductor-plants-costing-americans-2023-1">rising geopolitical tensions</a> thanks to China's hawkishness on Taiwan, have made the country an increasingly difficult one for Apple to tie its fortunes to, albeit one it is stuck with for some time.<a href="https://affiliate.insider.com?h=ed703b8c9b3a65c8bf15b51c0131e4ee145856d041dc19185c78403ec6d246c3&amp;postID=64ad36a5b854d531a11bc325&amp;site=bi&amp;u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.apple.com%2Fsupplier-responsibility%2Fpdf%2FApple-Supplier-List.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Apple's most recent supplier list</a> showed that around 150 of its suppliers, the vast majority, were located in China mainland during its 2022 fiscal year, while Chinese contract manufacturer Luxshare has been tasked with supporting the manufacturing of <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/how-apple-described-vision-pro-mixed-reality-headset-2023-6">Apple's new Vision Pro headset. </a>But that isn't stopping Apple from thinking about production beyond China. Its <a href="https://affiliate.insider.com?h=ed703b8c9b3a65c8bf15b51c0131e4ee145856d041dc19185c78403ec6d246c3&amp;postID=64ad36a5b854d531a11bc325&amp;site=bi&amp;u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.apple.com%2Fsupplier-responsibility%2Fpdf%2FApple-Supplier-List.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">supplier list in India and Vietnam</a> collectively has slowly crept up in recent years — 39 in 2022 versus 18 in 2017 — while its list in China has seen a very gradual decline. JP Morgan has previously estimated that as much as 25% of Apple's products could be made outside of China by 2025, up massively from the roughly 5% level it has hovered at since last year. But unlike Vietnam, India has the economic might to pitch itself as a tech-manufacturing powerhouse with the heft to rival China – a role it no doubt relishes given its geopolitical battle with Beijing. It's why <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/apple-ceo-tim-cook-ai-needs-to-be-carefully-deployed-2023-5">Apple CEO Tim Cook</a> spent some time in India in April, meeting Modi and building bridges with others such as Bollywood star Madhuri Dixit and billionaire tycoon Mukesh Ambani, who he was reported to have met in Mumbai. Two recent developments suggest India's push to become a viable alternative to China — and benefit Apple — are mixed.In a win for Indian prime minister Narendra Modi, the conglomerate <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-07-11/tata-group-closes-in-on-deal-to-become-first-indian-iphone-maker" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Tata Group is reportedly in the final stages of talks to purchase an Apple supplier factory for around $600 million. </a>If the deal goes ahead it would make it the first Indian company to move into local assembly of iPhones, Bloomberg reported. The facility, which is in the southern Indian state of Karnataka and assembled the <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/guides/tech/iphone-14-review">iPhone 14</a>, is run by Taiwanese manufacturer Wistron. But elsewhere, Taiwanese iPhone manufacturer Foxconn <a href="https://www.reuters.com/technology/foxconn-pulls-out-india-chip-jv-with-vedanta-2023-07-10/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">pulled the plug on its $19.5 billion-dollar joint venture with Indian conglomerate Vedanta</a> on Monday, per Reuters, giving no reason for its decision to axe the project one year after its signing."Foxconn has determined it will not move forward on the joint venture with Vedanta," Foxconn said in a statement to Reuters. That's a critical blow to Modi, who set out chip manufacturing as a strategic part of his ambitions to level up India.The joint venture was meant to take up residence in Modi's home state of Gujarat, while enticing the likes of Europe's STMicroelectronics, a semiconductor manufacturer, to play partner in the development of <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/chip-making-semiconductors-india-powerhouse-foxconn-vedanta-jv-setback-2023-7">a facility that could feasibly have put chips in everything from phones to cars.</a>Vedanta chairman Anil Agarwal <a href="https://twitter.com/AnilAgarwal_Ved/status/1569574006302584837?s=20" target="_blank" rel="noopener">tweeted</a> that the joint venture meant "India's own Silicon Valley is a step closer now." That's a bit of a blowout now, and not just for Modi and Agarwal.As much as <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/apple-iphone-needs-chinese-consumer-china-government-2022-12">Apple is tied to China</a> for now, it will desperately want India to prove itself capable of building a manufacturing capacity that makes it a dependable, long-term partner in due course.Sure, the joint venture wasn't directly connected to Apple, but it's something that will likely be watched very closely in Cupertino as a litmus test of India's ability to take its technological ambitions to new heights.

India's slow progress in becoming a chipmaking powerhouse to rival China is bad news for Apple

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Russia and China could revive barter trade to counter Western sanctions, Reuters reported.</li><li>Other countries that have looked at barter trade with Russia include Afghanistan, Iran, Pakistan, and India.</li></ul>Russia and China are planning to revive the age-old practice of barter trade to get around Western sanctions, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/first-russia-china-barter-trade-may-come-this-autumn-sources-say-2024-08-08/">Reuters</a> reported on Thursday.The deals could involve agriculture and could come as soon as this fall, the news agency reported, citing anonymous trade and payments sources. One source at a Russian industrial firm told the news agency that Russian firms were also talking about the exchange of metals for Chinese machinery imports.Such arrangements are being discussed as trade between the two countries has become increasingly difficult amid tightening Western sanctions against Russia over its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.Recently, about 80% of bank transfers made in the Chinese yuan were <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-economy-china-yuan-payments-delay-months-bounce-back-sanctions-2024-7">bouncing back</a> with no explanation after being stalled for weeks while banks decide whether they could transact, Russian media outlet Kommersant reported last month.Before this year, Russia and its trade partners skirted sanctions by using smaller banks and other payment modes or non-US dollar currencies to circumvent the West's ban of <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="c-link" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-eu-announce-some-russian-banks-removed-from-swift-2022-2">some Russian banks</a> from the widely used SWIFT messaging system.However, this strategy has been hitting snags since the US approved <a target="_blank" rel=" nofollow" href="https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-takes-aim-financial-institutions-with-new-russia-sanctions-authority-2023-12-22/">secondary sanctions</a> targeting financial institutions that were helping Russia. These restrictions prompted <a target="_blank" rel="" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-economy-financial-system-us-sanctions-oil-trade-foreign-banks-2024-3">global banks</a> from <a target="_blank" rel="" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-biggest-banks-stop-russia-payments-icbc-ccb-boc-2024-2">China </a>to the United Arab Emirates, Turkey, and Austria to reduce transactions with Russia.Since barter trade doesn't require monetary payments, it would allow Russia and China to skirt such issues.<h2 id="4ef98aff-cc26-4454-855d-f1ccddf1c7c0">Russia has used barter trade before</h2>It would not be Russia's first time using barter trade.It was practiced during the <a target="_blank" rel=" nofollow" href="https://www.joc.com/maritime-news/soviet-union-allows-return-barter-some-trading-deals-partners-former-e-bloc_19910708.html">Soviet era</a> and <a target="_blank" rel=" nofollow" href="https://www.nytimes.com/1998/09/06/world/as-ruble-withers-russians-survive-on-barter.html">in the years following the bloc's collapse.</a> At the time, China was a key trading partner.In August 2022, the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/taliban-import-russia-oil-barter-exchange-afghanistan-raisin-minerals-medicine-2022-8">Taliban regime in Afghanistan</a> also discussed barter trade with Russia that could involve trading Russian crude oil products in exchange for raisins, minerals, and medicinal herbs, according to RIA Novosti, a Russian state-owned news agency.Heavily-sanctioned <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/russia-iran-discuss-swapping-supplies-oil-gas-goods-logistics-2022-05-25/">Iran</a> and the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/india-plans-barter-for-russian-fertiliser/articleshow/91750978.cms">Indian government</a> were also in talks with Russia to practice barter trade in the early months of the Ukraine war.Last year, cash-strapped <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.voanews.com/a/pakistan-allows-barter-trade-with-iran-afghanistan-russia-/7120806.html">Pakistan</a> authorized the barter trade of specific goods with Russia.It's unclear if any of the parties eventually entered into any barter deal with Russia.Major economy India, for one, has managed to work around payment issues to become one of Russia's <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-economy-divert-oil-exports-europe-india-china-circumvent-sanctions-2023-12">key trading partners.</a><h2 id="a4ac3f71-bfea-4e2c-bbc1-8c442e62804f">Problems with barter trade</h2>Even so, barter trade isn't widely practiced in modern society."Exchanging goods for other goods would have to be manually accounted for, which would create major difficulties for any large or technologically advanced businesses using automated accounting systems," wrote Alexandra Prokopenko, a fellow at <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://carnegieendowment.org/russia-eurasia/politika/2022/09/bartering-cryptocurrencies-and-yuan-russia-seeks-alternatives-to-trading-in-dollars">the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center,</a> in a September 2022 blog post.Barter trade also makes it difficult for tax collection, she added.Russian authorities are working on other ways to skirt Western payment sanctions.The country is rushing to set up <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-economy-moscow-cryptocurrency-bill-digital-ruble-trade-payments-sanctions-2024-7">alternative payment systems, </a>including crypto, to facilitate trade.

Western sanctions are so tight that Russia and China could soon use an ancient trading system. It's worked before.

<ul class="summary-list"><li>The US military may be forced to confront a Chinese invasion of Taiwan without top allies.</li><li>Japan, Australia, the UK and Canada are likely to provide no military forces to counter China.</li></ul>If the US decides to defend Taiwan from Chinese invasion, it may have to do so alone.Several of America's biggest allies are unlikely to commit troops to save Taiwan, either because they lack the military capability or don't want to risk all-out war with an increasingly formidable China, according to a new <a target="_blank" href="https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RRA3108-1.html">report</a> by the RAND Corp..For Japan, Australia, the UK and Canada, aid "would be confined to diplomatic support for Taiwan and endorsement of likely US sanctions on China," concluded RAND, an American think tank, which surveyed experts in the four nations. If this proves right, it means that any military response to a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-missing-how-china-could-seize-taiwan-without-invading-experts-2024-5">Chinese invasion</a> would be limited to American forces."Our respondents believe that the US will receive logistics and materiel support from other countries, but its forces will have to go it alone in responding to an invasion by China," Rafiq Dossani, a RAND senior economist who co-authored the study, told Business Insider. However, there was more support in Japan and Australia to commit their navies to assisting an American-led effort to break a Chinese blockade of Taiwan.That Canada, for example, might not be able or eager to rush to Taiwan's defense isn't a surprise. But for Japan, whose security would be gravely affected by a Chinese takeover of Taiwan, the issue is more complicated."Despite its military power, commitment to the region, and US backing, Japanese pacifism (both popular and constitutional) and the fear of a retaliatory attack by China are likely to limit Japan's <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-arming-taiwan-against-china-invasion-but-it-could-backfire-2023-11">military support for Taiwan</a>, perhaps only to logistics and supplies," RAND said. "Any support that they would offer to a US-led military response would likely be limited to logistics and materiel support."The goal of the RAND study, which was sponsored by Taiwan's Ministry of Foreign Affairs, was to examine how America's medium-sized allies may deter or mediate a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/chinas-taiwan-drills-looked-like-rehearsal-for-invasion-us-admiral-2024-5">conflict between China and Taiwan</a>, a democratic island that China's communist leaders consider a breakaway province. The US is highly dependent on its regional allies like South Korea and Japan for basing, but the prospect it would have to fight without their ships and troops against what's likely to be a larger Chinese force may tarnish its deterrent power.Researchers classified Japan, Australia, the UK and Canada as "middle powers," which RAND defined as nations "that are not small but lack the sheer size and influence to significantly disrupt the global order." The study excluded nations that already faced a risk of direct conflict with China, the US and their respective allies. India and South Korea were also excluded "because those countries have declared that they will not play a mediating role in a cross-Strait conflict."RAND sent questionnaires to 49 diplomats, defense officials, policy analysts, business executives, journalists and legislators in the four nations. The various responses shared "remarkably common" views about a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-doesnt-have-military-power-invade-taiwan-experts-csis-us-2024-1">China-Taiwan war</a>.What is especially striking is the pessimistic self-image. The British experts, for example, felt that "the UK's distant location and weak military assets, in addition to its trade dependence on China, lead to limited UK interest in defending Taiwan militarily."Nor do the four US allies believe that Beijing fears them enough to refrain from <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-missing-how-china-could-seize-taiwan-without-invading-experts-2024-5">attacking Taiwan</a>. "Our respondents thought that China views these four middle-power countries as too weak militarily to take on China on their own and as marginal players in a US-led coalition," the report found.On the other hand, America's top allies don't <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-trying-boost-its-economy-is-china-preparing-war-taiwan-2024-5">share</a> <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/red-flags-tell-us-when-chinas-ready-to-invade-taiwan-2024-4">American fears</a> that a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-military-china-missile-problem-getting-worse-2024-5">massive Chinese military buildup</a> and Chinese leader <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/xi-claim-us-trying-trick-china-invaded-taiwan-divide-allies-experts-2024-6">Xi Jinping's</a> avowed determination to "reunify" Taiwan with China are steps toward war, but rather may be nationalistic posturing. "According to our respondents, China's main goal is to legitimize its current domestic political system (i.e., the rule of the Chinese Communist Party)," the report said. "To accomplish this goal, China must be seen within as a great power, preeminent in Asia, and able to achieve high economic growth. An invasion of Taiwan would jeopardize such perceptions and thus be deemed an unacceptable risk relative to the status quo."<a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/how-taiwan-seals-would-fight-a-chinese-military-invasion-2021-12">Taiwan's military</a> is not inconsequential, with nearly 200,000 active-duty soldiers, anti-ship missiles and <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/how-taiwan-could-use-sea-mines-to-stop-chinese-invasion-2024-3">mines</a>, and soon F-16 fighters and submarines. But this is a fraction of <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-showed-how-easily-no-notice-it-can-surround-taiwan-2024-6">China's military</a> might, and Taiwan would probably need outside assistance to repel an invasion or <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-missing-how-china-could-seize-taiwan-without-invading-experts-2024-5">break a blockade</a>. While the US would provide the bulk of such a relief effort, allied contributions would be vital, as would unfettered use of bases in Japan and Australia.To American hardliners already resentful that some <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-didnt-scare-nato-defense-spending-putin-did-experts-2024-2">NATO nations </a>aren't spending enough to defend Europe, the reluctance of its allies may smack of cowardice, and stick the US with the burden of Pacific security. But this may also reflect military and geographic reality. Canada's small military could muster only a token force for Taiwan's defense. Britain's shrinking armed forces, which already have European commitments, would struggle just to dispatch a small carrier task force 6,000 miles to the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-ax-attack-philippines-south-china-sea-grab-territory-experts-2024-6">South China Sea</a>.Though <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/aukus-plans-for-new-submarine-base-amid-increased-undersea-competition-2023-5">Australia</a> is a Pacific nation, and has diesel-electric submarines and F-35 stealth fighters, it still lacks the ability to project and sustain military operations 5,000 miles away in Taiwan.But the biggest question mark is Japan: Okinawa is about 500 miles from Taiwan, Japan has territorial disputes with China over various islands in the East China Sea, and the Japanese military is rated among the 10 most powerful in the world. Furthermore, Japan's territory and the US military bases it hosts will be essential to any <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-plans-turn-taiwan-strait-into-drone-hellscape-against-china-2024-6">US effort</a> to counter China.Yet if Japan, Australia, Britain and Canada are reluctant to confront China, there are actions they can take to help Taiwan. RAND recommends that they create a joint plan for trade sanctions to deter China from attacking Taiwan. In addition, the four middle powers could play a role in mediators to prevent a Taiwan war from happening."Indeed, middle powers might be the only ones that can play a mediating role in such a conflict if tensions between the great powers were to escalate," the study noted. "However, as of this report's writing, no middle power has enough influence over both great powers to play such a role, even in coalition with other middle powers."Which means these middle-ranked nations need to build up their capabilities, military and otherwise. "To build credibility with both great powers, the four middle powers need to rebuild and bolster their strategic autonomy, material power, and commitment to the Asia-Pacific region."The study also implicitly raises questions about how much the US can count on its NATO allies for support outside Europe. While NATO nations did send small contingents during the Afghan war, confronting China is different."I think that NATO should take seriously the possibility of European middle powers preferring not to be involved in a conflict in which their adversary does not directly threaten their national security," Dossani said."Michael Peck is a defense writer whose work has appeared in Forbes, Defense News, Foreign Policy magazine, and other publications. He holds an MA in political science from Rutgers Univ. Follow him on <a target="_blank" href="https://www.twitter.com/@mipeck1">Twitter</a> and <a target="_blank" href="https://www.linkedin.com/in/mipeck/">LinkedIn</a>.

In a Taiwan war, the US could find itself fighting China without its top allies

<ul class="summary-list"><li>The US sought the help of non-allies to try to dissuade Russia from carrying out a nuclear strike in 2022.</li><li>The US feared a Ukrainian counteroffensive against Kherson could trigger Putin.</li></ul>The US asked non-allies for help in an attempt to dissuade Russia from carrying out a nuclear strike in 2022, a senior US administration official told CNN."One of the things we did was not only message them directly but strongly urge, press, encourage other countries, to whom they might be more attentive, to do the same thing," they said, per the report.The official said their assessment was that input from the likes of India, China, and others "may have had some effect" on Russia's thinking."The concern from key countries for Russia and the Global South, was also a helpful, persuasive factor and showed them what the cost of all this could be," another US official told the outlet.<div type="image" title="Xi/Putin" height="701" width="1024" msid="108355650" hostid="261" sizebytes="37592"></div>Worries that Putin might resort to using nuclear weapons spread in 2022 after Russian forces faced a series of defeats and <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/ukraine-troops-enter-kherson-humiliate-for-putin-as-russia-retreats-2022-11">Ukraine launched a counteroffensive against the prized city of Kherson</a> in southern Ukraine."If significant numbers of Russian forces were ­overrun —­ if their lives were shattered as such —­ that was a sort of precursor to a potential threat directly to Russian territory or the Russian state," one of the senior officials said.And the Biden administration feared that this might trigger Putin to use nuclear weapons as a deterrent to avoid further losses, as he viewed the captured town of Kherson as part of Russia itself, per the CNN report.<h2>Russia's 'dirty bomb' claim</h2>In October 2022, Russian propagandists also began circulating a story suggesting that Ukraine was planning to use a "<a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-baseless-claim-ukraine-dirty-bomb-ploy-to-scare-west-2022-10">dirty bomb</a>," a device containing both radioactive material and regular explosives.Sergei Shoigu, Russia's defense minister, put the claim to the US and a number of its allies.<div type="image" title="sergei shoigu" height="1174" width="1500" msid="108355652" hostid="261" sizebytes="78780"></div>"Russian public messaging came way out of the left field on the potential for Ukraine to use a dirty bomb, which we saw not grounded in reality," one of the administration officials said.But they added that there were fears Russia was making the claims as "a pretext for them to do something crazy or as a cover for something they themselves were looking at doing."The Institute for the Study of War think tank <a target="_blank" href="https://twitter.com/TheStudyofWar/status/1584304801495814144">said</a> at the time that the move "likely sought to slow or suspend Western military aid" and "possibly weaken the NATO alliance in scare-mongering calls."Nevertheless, one official said, "the risk level seemed to be going up, beyond where it had been at any other point in time."In June 2023, President Joe Biden said Russia's nuclear threat remained "real" following the news that Russia had moved nuclear weapons into neighboring Belarus.Last month, Putin made some of his most explicit nuclear threats so far after French President Emmanuel Macron suggested NATO could send troops to aid Ukraine — despite the idea being rejected by the US and other NATO allies."(Western nations) must realise that we also have weapons that can hit targets on their territory," he said, per <a target="_blank" href="https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/putin-warns-west-risk-nuclear-war-says-moscow-can-strike-western-targets-2024-02-29/">Reuters</a>. "All this really threatens a conflict with the use of nuclear weapons and the destruction of civilisation. Don't they get that?"

US asked China and India for help to prevent Russia from carrying out a nuclear strike in 2022, report says

Days after Trump won his way to the White House, becoming the 47th President of the United States, the US Federal Reserve slashed the interest rates by 25 basis points, bringing them within the range of 4.5-4.75%. This is the second time this year that the Fed has lowered the interest rates, after cutting them down by 50 basis points in September 2024. u Fed chair Jerome Powell noted that monetary policy remains tight as inflation remains elevated at 2.4% as of September 2024, slightly above the 2% mark set by the commission. However, the Fed remained optimistic about the current state of the economy. "The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at 2% over the longer run. The Committee judges that the risks to achieving its employment and inflation goals are roughly in balance. The economic outlook is uncertain, and the Committee is attentive to the risks to both sides of its dual mandate," the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) noted in its press release. The rate cut was along widely anticipated lines, although experts were wary of the Fed's way ahead, given that Donald Trump has been elected as the US President. In the past, he has, on multiple occasions, expressed his desire to yield greater influence on the Fed, apart from publicly criticizing Powell. However, Powell continued to stand his ground, noting that Trump cannot legally sack him. He believed in keeping the Fed independent, at least until his tenure as governor ends in 2028. He highlighted that even if he is explicitly asked by Trump to quit, he won't do so. <h2>Trump's regime to inch up inflation?</h2> Trump's electoral promises, if translated into policies, could spell disaster for the Fed's effort to curtail inflation. Reportedly, Trump has promised to levy aggressive tariffs against US trading partners, particularly China, and even extend his 2017 tax cuts. This could mean higher levels of the federal deficit, which would push up prices, wages, and hence, inflation, even as the Fed tries to consistently bring it under control. Apurva Sheth, Head of Market Perspectives and Research, SAMCO Securities, notes that it wasn't a surprise when the US Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points (bps) to 4.75%. The Fed had given enough clues, and the market too had anticipated these rate cuts. "However, what was surprising was how the <keyword id="23863852" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="US-10-year-bond-yields" source="keywords">US 10-year bond yields</keyword> moved over the last one and a half months, which have been rising relentlessly from 3.6% to almost 4.5% despite the 50 bps cut in the last Fed meeting. It seems that the market is anticipating slower rate cuts going ahead, and maybe there are even chances of inflation rising. The bond yields have cooled off and slipped below the 4.335% mark. This should be bullish for emerging markets like India," he added.

You Searched For "india and china news" and got 12 results

Indian traders demand resumption of border trade with China through Lipulekh pass

PTI

US-China tariff war could benefit several sectors in India while harming a few others

Deekshith Pinto

India is drawing lessons from Ukraine to counter China's military might

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India wants to be the new China. Modi's shock election result shows it won't be easy.

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A bizarre comment stirred speculation India may try to match China's carrier fleet

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Countries from Russia to China are building payments systems that could threaten the dollar's global dominance

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Japan says China's increasingly aggressive air force breached its airspace for the first time ever

Tom Porter

India's slow progress in becoming a chipmaking powerhouse to rival China is bad news for Apple

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Western sanctions are so tight that Russia and China could soon use an ancient trading system. It's worked before.

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In a Taiwan war, the US could find itself fighting China without its top allies

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US asked China and India for help to prevent Russia from carrying out a nuclear strike in 2022, report says

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US Fed cuts interest rates by 25 bps, Powell notes Trump's victory to have no impact on policy decisions

Ira Alok Puranik

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