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Days after Trump won his way to the White House, becoming the 47th President of the United States, the US Federal Reserve slashed the interest rates by 25 basis points, bringing them within the range of 4.5-4.75%. This is the second time this year that the Fed has lowered the interest rates, after cutting them down by 50 basis points in September 2024. u Fed chair Jerome Powell noted that monetary policy remains tight as inflation remains elevated at 2.4% as of September 2024, slightly above the 2% mark set by the commission. However, the Fed remained optimistic about the current state of the economy. "The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at 2% over the longer run. The Committee judges that the risks to achieving its employment and inflation goals are roughly in balance. The economic outlook is uncertain, and the Committee is attentive to the risks to both sides of its dual mandate," the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) noted in its press release. The rate cut was along widely anticipated lines, although experts were wary of the Fed's way ahead, given that Donald Trump has been elected as the US President. In the past, he has, on multiple occasions, expressed his desire to yield greater influence on the Fed, apart from publicly criticizing Powell. However, Powell continued to stand his ground, noting that Trump cannot legally sack him. He believed in keeping the Fed independent, at least until his tenure as governor ends in 2028. He highlighted that even if he is explicitly asked by Trump to quit, he won't do so. <h2>Trump's regime to inch up inflation?</h2> Trump's electoral promises, if translated into policies, could spell disaster for the Fed's effort to curtail inflation. Reportedly, Trump has promised to levy aggressive tariffs against US trading partners, particularly China, and even extend his 2017 tax cuts. This could mean higher levels of the federal deficit, which would push up prices, wages, and hence, inflation, even as the Fed tries to consistently bring it under control. Apurva Sheth, Head of Market Perspectives and Research, SAMCO Securities, notes that it wasn't a surprise when the US Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points (bps) to 4.75%. The Fed had given enough clues, and the market too had anticipated these rate cuts. "However, what was surprising was how the <keyword id="23863852" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="US-10-year-bond-yields" source="keywords">US 10-year bond yields</keyword> moved over the last one and a half months, which have been rising relentlessly from 3.6% to almost 4.5% despite the 50 bps cut in the last Fed meeting. It seems that the market is anticipating slower rate cuts going ahead, and maybe there are even chances of inflation rising. The bond yields have cooled off and slipped below the 4.335% mark. This should be bullish for emerging markets like India," he added.

US Fed cuts interest rates by 25 bps, Powell notes Trump's victory to have no impact on policy decisions

In early Wednesday trading, the Indian rupee slid 14 paise to hit an all-time low of 84.23 per US dollar, weighed down by continued outflows of foreign funds and a robust US dollar in global markets. Forex analysts highlighted the volatility stemming from the ongoing US elections, suggesting that stability could return once results are clear in this close race. The US Federal Reserve is also on the radar, with an anticipated interest rate cut this week and a projected easing of up to 100 basis points by 2025. At the interbank forex market, the rupee opened at its historic low of 84.23 against the dollar, down from its previous close of 84.09. On Tuesday, the currency had ended slightly stronger, gaining 2 paise. Meanwhile, the dollar index, which tracks the strength of the US dollar against six major currencies, climbed 1.64% to 105.11. According to Anil Kumar Bhansali, Head of Treasury at Finrex Treasury Advisors, the index rose following initial election results showing former President Trump ahead, with the Republican party also leading in both the Senate and the House of Representatives. The global oil market saw movement as Brent crude prices dipped 0.98%, trading at USD 74.79 per barrel. Bhansali noted that the rupee’s trajectory will heavily depend on the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) response, particularly as the currency fluctuates with real-time election outcomes. He estimated an intra-day trading range between 84.00 and 84.35. On the domestic front, Indian stock markets showed positive trends. The Sensex climbed by 390.93 points (0.49%) to reach 79,867.56, while the Nifty rose by 135.60 points (0.56%) to 24,348.90. Despite these gains, foreign institutional investors (FIIs) were net sellers on Tuesday, pulling out Rs 2,569.41 crore from the capital markets, as per stock exchange data. This withdrawal underscores the challenges facing the Indian currency amid global financial uncertainties. (with PTI inputs)

Rupee hits record low of 84.23 against US dollar amidst US elections 2024

For many Americans, the most important focus heading into a presidential election is how the winner will impact their wallet. Whatever your financial priorities, Business Insider has you covered with a five-part series on the impacts a Trump or a Harris presidency could have on US consumers.You can go deep on how the race for the White House could impact everything from childcare costs to housing to your grocery bill. Just follow the links below, or keep scrolling for a speed-read. Explore BI's election series:• <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/market-impact-presidential-election-scenarios-trump-harris-stocks-bonds-crypto-2024-10">How a Trump or Harris presidency could impact your investments</a>• <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/cost-expensive-goods-price-impact-presidential-election-scenarios-trump-harris-2024-10">What's expected to get more and less expensive under Trump or Harris</a>• <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/housing-affordability-supply-impact-presidential-election-scenarios-homebuyers-harris-trump-2024-10">How the cost of housing is expected to change under Trump or Harris</a>• <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/tax-cut-tariff-plan-outlook-presidential-election-scenarios-harris-trump-2024-10">What a Trump or Harris presidency would mean for your tax bill</a>• <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/childcare-costs-presidential-election-scenarios-parents-paid-leave-harris-trump-2024-10">How the cost of childcare is expected to change under Trump or Harris</a> <h2 id="0f3ba487-221e-4717-9396-f6e71080aee6"><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/market-impact-presidential-election-scenarios-trump-harris-stocks-bonds-crypto-2024-10">Investments</a></h2><h3 id="c604a2de-d86e-4c5a-8272-80c2c117fa03">Trump</h3>The former president's plan to cut the corporate tax rate is generally viewed as bullish for earnings, particularly for the consumer-discretionary, communication-services, and financial sectors. However, his plan to tax all US imports is viewed as a headwind that could be inflationary and hit consumer spending.If those inflation worries come true, interest rates would be higher and push bond prices lower. Trump is also seen as bullish for crypto, and his protectionist policies are viewed as likely to push the dollar higher.<h3 id="f5661b95-8cae-4195-968e-937088b5c035">Harris</h3>The current vice president's plan to raise the corporate tax rate is expected to hit the beneficiaries of Trump's proposed cut hardest. Her plan to regulate the financial sector is also seen as holding back stocks in the industry. On the positive side, Harris' policies would likely benefit homebuilder and renewable-energy stocks.Harris' plans are also considered to be less inflationary than Trump's, which would allow the Federal Reserve to keep cutting rates, boosting bond prices. Her continuity with President Joe Biden's policies is expected to push the dollar lower. Harris is also viewed as crypto-positive.<h2 id="9fffe11a-9455-431b-baef-03c634fbeb2b"><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/cost-expensive-goods-price-impact-presidential-election-scenarios-trump-harris-2024-10">Costs</a></h2><h3 id="4d8effe9-7729-4dbe-b985-0353c12003a7">Trump</h3>Trump's plan to impose a broad-based 10%-to-20% tariff on most goods brought in from other countries is widely viewed as making import-reliant products more expensive. Major categories with high potential tariff exposure include automobiles, drugs for human and veterinary use, food and beverage, furniture, and household appliances.Relatedly, the former president has previously said he'll lower grocery prices by restricting food imports to bolster domestic producers.<h3 id="c9f25ce7-8011-4641-a4cf-cdefe1de92d9">Harris</h3>While Harris could continue tariffs instated by Biden, her import-tax policy is seen as less inflationary than Trump's. For groceries, the vice president released a plan to tackle high food costs by implementing a federal ban on price gouging during national emergencies.For drug prices, Harris has promised to expand two provisions in the Inflation Reduction Act, allowing Medicare to negotiate the prices of some drugs.<h2 id="ed67f4da-e516-414c-ba19-f692892a0f86"><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/market-impact-presidential-election-scenarios-trump-harris-stocks-bonds-crypto-2024-10">Housing</a></h2><h3 id="c3f2844c-6bb9-473d-91db-9163697e0f29">Trump</h3>Trump has said on the campaign trail that the ongoing housing shortage could be addressed by deporting millions of people from the country. The former president also said he could decrease demand by banning mortgages for immigrants living in the US illegally.Further — during his previous White House tenure — Trump opposed the construction of high-density housing in single-family-zoned areas, although he has not said during this election cycle whether he wants to continue pursuing similar policies.<h3 id="dd9ed82e-f056-4bf1-a84a-ce1071f56fc5">Harris</h3>Harris' planned policy includes the construction of 3 million new housing units, as well as an expansion to the Low-Income Housing Tax Credit. She also plans to create a $40 billion federal innovation fund that would encourage local governments to build housing.The vice president has also said she would take action against "corporate landlords" and call on Congress to remove tax benefits from investors who acquire 50 or more single-family rental homes.<h2 id="b0d6cc09-dd6b-4d2e-9216-5c8ecbcfa7e0"><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/tax-cut-tariff-plan-outlook-presidential-election-scenarios-harris-trump-2024-10">Taxes</a></h2><h3 id="206237a6-9eca-4208-bb25-b7f76c2ce845">Trump</h3>Trump has proposed lowering the corporate tax rate from 21% to 15% for firms that make their products in the US.The former president has also said he plans to extend his slew of tax cuts from the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017 — also known as the "Trump tax cut."A permanent continuation of the TCJA's income-tax provisions would amount to a nearly $280,000 tax cut for the top 0.1% of earners, compared to $1,000 for middle-income Americas, a Tax Policy Center analysis found. Trump's plan for universal tariffs is seen as offsetting a positive tax impact and would be especially costly for lower-earning Americans.<h3 id="77d8ca5f-0db1-4a2a-87e9-9b8e7ae5c85b">Harris</h3>Harris wants to bump up the corporate tax rate from 21% to 28%, while also proposing some specific breaks for small businesses.The vice president has also proposed an expanded earned-income tax credit aimed at lower earners, and she wants to restore and expand upon a more generous child tax credit, similar to the one implemented under Biden's pandemic-relief bill in 2021. Harris also shares some middle ground with Trump in terms of wanting to eliminate taxes on tips.For high-income earners, Harris supports two measures that have gained traction during the Biden administration: targeting ultrawealthy investors' capital gains, and imposing a minimum income tax on billionaires.<h2 id="2804ce0e-fc32-40e9-803e-c53a6b31f02b"><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/childcare-costs-presidential-election-scenarios-parents-paid-leave-harris-trump-2024-10">Childcare</a></h2><h3 id="ed726a64-f988-4421-a339-c95f21949f4f">Trump</h3>Trump has also proposed expanding the child tax credit, which currently provides up to $2,000 per child. In August, the vice presidential candidate JD Vance floated a child tax credit proposal that would include $5,000 per child for families of all income levels.In addition, while previously in office, Trump signed a bipartisan bill that provided federal employees with 12 weeks of paid parental leave, although he hasn't emphasized the issue on the 2024 campaign trail.<h3 id="e35abccd-064c-4d14-947d-2de0192dc4b9">Harris</h3>Harris has promised to cap families' childcare costs at no more than 7% of their incomes, compared to the between 8% and 19.3% spent by the median American family in 2022. The vice president's child tax credit policy would restore the enhanced pandemic-era credit, giving parents up to $3,600 annually per child, with the amount dependent on a child's age and family income.Further, during her run for president in 2020, Harris supported a six-month paid-leave policy for Americans with a new child or a sick relative.

How the election will impact your wallet

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Donald Trump has won the US presidency in sweeping fashion.</li><li>His proposed policies, particularly wide-reaching tariffs, are expected to have a major impact on consumers.</li></ul>Now that <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/donald-trump-wins-presidential-election-race-2024-11">Donald Trump has been declared the winner</a> of the 2024 election, American consumers are on the lookout for what a Trump 2.0 presidency will mean for their finances.From investment portfolios to childcare costs, there could be substantial changes. Central to Trump's overall platform is his plan to enact tariffs on nearly all US imports, which is seen as driving inflation higher.Detailed below are five categories — investments, overall costs, housing, taxes, and childcare — that US consumers can expect to feel impacted by a new Trump regime.<h2 id="d30df8a9-d8f0-4701-8583-83a332628411"><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/market-impact-presidential-election-scenarios-trump-harris-stocks-bonds-crypto-2024-10">Investments</a></h2>Trump's plan to cut the corporate tax rate is generally viewed as bullish for earnings, particularly for the consumer-discretionary, communication-services, and financial sectors. However, his plan to tax all US imports is viewed as a headwind that could be inflationary and hit consumer spending.If those inflation worries come true, interest rates would be higher and push bond prices lower. Trump is also seen as bullish for crypto, and his protectionist policies are viewed as likely to push the dollar higher.These moves played out after Trump secured victory, with the so-called <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/trump-trade-us-presidential-election-dollar-treasuries-stocks-crypto-djt-2024-11">Trump trade soaring</a>: stocks, Treasury yields, dollar, and bitcoin moved sharply higher.<h2 id="9fffe11a-9455-431b-baef-03c634fbeb2b"><a target="_blank" rel="" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/cost-expensive-goods-price-impact-presidential-election-scenarios-trump-harris-2024-10">Costs</a></h2>Trump's plan to impose a broad-based 10%-to-20% tariff on most goods brought in from other countries — and as much as 60% on Chinese imports — is widely viewed as making import-reliant products more expensive. Major categories with high potential tariff exposure include automobiles, drugs for human and veterinary use, food and beverage, furniture, and household appliances.Relatedly, the former president has previously said he'll lower grocery prices by restricting food imports to bolster domestic producers.<h2 id="3a8b1c41-e43c-4dca-b716-d8a1ee2acef2"><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/market-impact-presidential-election-scenarios-trump-harris-stocks-bonds-crypto-2024-10">Housing</a></h2>Trump said on the campaign trail that the ongoing housing shortage could be addressed by deporting millions of people from the country. The newly elected president has also said he could decrease demand by banning mortgages for immigrants living in the US illegally.During his previous White House tenure, Trump opposed the construction of high-density housing in single-family-zoned areas, although did not say during this election cycle whether he wants to continue pursuing similar policies.Further, if Trump's presidency is inflationary and leads to interest-rate hikes, that would hit housing affordability in the form of higher mortgage rates, which track the Fed's benchmark.<h2 id="b0d6cc09-dd6b-4d2e-9216-5c8ecbcfa7e0"><a target="_blank" rel="" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/tax-cut-tariff-plan-outlook-presidential-election-scenarios-harris-trump-2024-10">Taxes</a></h2>Trump has proposed lowering the corporate tax rate from 21% to 15% for firms that make their products in the US.The former president has also said he plans to extend his slew of tax cuts from the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017 — also known as the "Trump tax cut."A permanent continuation of the TCJA's income-tax provisions would amount to a nearly $280,000 tax cut for the top 0.1% of earners, compared to $1,000 for middle-income Americas, a Tax Policy Center analysis found. Trump's plan for universal tariffs is seen as offsetting a positive tax impact and would be especially costly for lower-earning Americans.<h2 id="2804ce0e-fc32-40e9-803e-c53a6b31f02b"><a target="_blank" rel="" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/childcare-costs-presidential-election-scenarios-parents-paid-leave-harris-trump-2024-10">Childcare</a></h2>Trump has proposed expanding the child tax credit, which currently provides up to $2,000 per child. In August, the vice presidential candidate JD Vance floated a child tax credit proposal that would include $5,000 per child for families of all income levels.In addition, while previously in office, Trump signed a bipartisan bill that provided federal employees with 12 weeks of paid parental leave, although he didn't emphasize the issue on the 2024 campaign trail.

How Trump's election victory will impact your wallet

<ul class="summary-list"><li>While Democrats touted job growth under Biden, Trump won over voters facing high prices.</li><li>A BI analysis found real wages declined in states that had the biggest swings toward Trump.</li></ul>High prices dominated voters' minds this election cycle — and they likely played a key role in handing <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/donald-trump-wins-presidential-election-race-2024-11">President-elect Donald Trump</a> his victory.On the campaign trail, Trump clashed with President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris over their <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/what-us-economy-would-look-like-with-trump-biden-presidency-2024-5">handling of the economy</a>.<a target="_blank" class="" href="https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE">Unemployment</a> sharply fell during the first year of Biden's term and has remained low. Biden <a target="_blank" href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2024/11/01/statement-from-president-joe-biden-on-the-october-2024-jobs-report/">oversaw the creation of 16 million new jobs</a> during his term as of October, and his administration frequently touted that growth.But <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/personal-finance/investing/what-is-inflation">inflation</a> also spiked during the early years of Biden's presidency, before its pace gradually slowed, creeping toward the Federal Reserve's 2% target.Trump told voters he would provide relief to their wallets across the board, from groceries to housing."I am promising low taxes, low regulations, low energy costs, low interest rates, secure borders, low, low, low crime and surging incomes for citizens of every race, religion, color, and creed," Trump <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.c-span.org/video/?538141-1/president-trump-remarks-economic-club-york">said</a> during remarks in September. "My plan will rapidly defeat inflation, quickly bring down prices, and reignite explosive economic growth."That promise resonated: Real, or inflation-adjusted, wage growth — or lack thereof — across the country shows a possible reason why.Many states where Trump most improved his margins saw large declines in real wages under Biden. Increases in wages were more than offset by higher living costs in these states.Counties with higher costs of living also voted for Trump more than they did in 2020.<h2 id="592a8bc6-249e-4af5-904c-d806f3ba6a2f">How Trump won on prices</h2>Business Insider looked at how average hourly earnings for private employees have changed in each state from January 2021, when Biden took office, to this past September. BI adjusted 2021 amounts using <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.bls.gov/cpi/regional-resources.htm">Census-division-level inflation</a> to understand how much real wages have changed across the US. Rhode Island had the highest real wage growth, just one of around a dozen states that saw an increase.Using the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/11/03/us/elections/results-president.html">2020</a> and <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/11/05/us/elections/results-president.html">2024</a> share of Trump votes by state reported by The New York Times, BI found that states with bigger real wage drops tended to have bigger shifts to Trump than other states.Some of the biggest swings came in heavily blue, expensive states. New York, which saw an 8.3% real wage decline and which has a high cost of living, also had a 6.5 percentage point increase in Trump's vote share from 2020 to 2024. Maryland, which saw an 11.2% real wage decline, swung toward Trump in 2024 by 5 percentage points.The nation's capital was an outlier. Real wages massively fell in <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.bea.gov/news/2023/real-personal-consumption-expenditures-state-and-real-personal-income-state-and">costly</a> Washington, DC; even before adjusting for inflation wages were roughly flat. While Trump did see a small uptick in the share of DC votes for him in 2024, it was one of the lowest percentage point increases based on BI's analysis.The cost of living and unemployment levels also factored into voters' feelings as they headed to the polls. Jed Kolko, an economist who served in the Biden administration, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.slowboring.com/p/breaking-down-the-election-results">wrote</a> in Matthew Yglesias' "Slow Boring" column that higher unemployment levels in US counties over the past year matched a swing in county votes toward Trump.The same goes with the cost of living: "Counties with a higher cost of living swung more toward Trump in 2024 relative to 2020. Expensive counties tend to be blue places like big coastal cities; Harris won most of these pricey counties, but by a smaller margin than Biden did in 2020, when controlling for demographics, education, and density," Kolko wrote.Kolko also found that local job growth did not have a significant relationship to voting patterns, while local federal spending from Biden's signature infrastructure and industrial investment programs did not appear to impact county election results either.Some experts have said that Trump's tariff policies would <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-tariffs-higher-inflation-fed-interest-rates-taxes-mortgage-rates-2024-11">stoke inflation and raise consumer prices</a>. Trump has instead argued that his policies would help with costs, promising voters they will see improvements once he takes office."Prices will come down," Trump <a target="_blank" href="https://www.cnn.com/2024/08/20/business/trump-inflation-prices-deflation/index.html">said</a> during an August speech. "You just watch: They'll come down, and they'll come down fast, not only with insurance, with everything."

Democrats wished the election was about jobs. Trump's win showed it was about prices.

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Voters elected Republicans across the country while also supporting policies typically touted by Democrats.</li><li>Minimum wage hikes passed in two red states, and one voted against pay cuts for tipped workers.</li></ul>In 2024, voters elected a Republican president while embracing policies touted by Democrats.Minimum wage hikes, in particular, were victorious in states that went soundly for President-elect Donald Trump.In Missouri, Trump raked in just over <a target="_blank" href="https://enr.sos.mo.gov/">58% of the vote</a>. The same share of the state's voters opted to hike the minimum wage to $15 an hour by 2026 and mandate some paid sick leave. A slim majority also voted to enshrine abortion rights.In Alaska, where <a target="_blank" href="https://www.elections.alaska.gov/enr/">Trump seems poised to trounce Kamala Harris</a>, a measure to hike the minimum wage to $15 by 2027 and mandate paid sick leave <a target="_blank" href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/elections/results/2024/11/05/alaska-measure-1/">also looks like it's on track to win</a>.In <a target="_blank" href="https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-elections/arizona-ballot-measures">Arizona</a>, a measure to allow employers to reduce base pay for tipped workers did not pass, and voters similarly voted to enshrine abortion rights.It's happened before: In 2020, Florida voters wholeheartedly embraced Trump — and voted to <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/florida-minimum-wage-rise-vote-amendment-15-tipped-employees-workers-2020-11">hike the minimum wage to $15 by 2026</a>.It's further proof that this election really was all about the economy."People are right now still feeling the effects of high inflation," Yannet Lathrop, a senior researcher and policy analyst at the National Employment Law Project, said, adding, "When they have before them an opportunity to raise the wage of themselves or their family members or friends, they are going to choose to do that because they still are feeling the effects of high inflation. "David Cooper, the director of the Economic Analysis and Research Network at the left-leaning Economic Policy Institute, told BI there's been a "real sea change" in people's <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/jobs-labor-market-federal-minimum-wage-raise-small-business-2024-8">understanding of the impact of hikes</a>. Both he and Lathrop have observed a move away from the belief that higher minimum wages would lead to fewer jobs and toward <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/what-a-15-minimum-wage-would-mean-businesses-workers-employment-2021-1">research</a> showing that pay hikes mean higher pay with <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/the-fed-raising-the-minimum-wage-doesnt-kill-jobs-2019-9">minimal job loss</a>."Raising the minimum wage almost always has bipartisan support except among elected Republican officials. So there is a disconnect between what elected Republicans want to do around minimum wage policy and what their voters overwhelming — at least by and large — tend to want them to do," Cooper said.When Democrats brought a bill that would raise the minimum wage to $15 in 2021, it received <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.politico.com/news/2021/03/05/democrats-15-minimum-wage-hike-473875">zero GOP support</a>, with <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/8-democrats-voted-against-raising-minimum-wage-worth-43-million-2021-3?utm_source=reddit.com">8 moderate Democrats</a> also voting the measure down.Trump has <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.npr.org/2024/11/01/nx-s1-5173819/2024-election-trump-harris-workers-overtime-wages">signaled</a> he'd be open to a minimum wage hike. Vice President-elect JD Vance cosponsored <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.romney.senate.gov/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/Higher-Wages-for-American-Workers-Act-2023.pdf">a GOP bill</a> to raise the federal minimum to $11 an hour, but it never made it to a vote.Georgetown University Professor Jason Brennan told BI that it isn't strange many Americans who vote Republican also vote for a higher minimum wage.Brennan said that most partisan voters don't actually have a strong sense of policies they favor; they favor a party rather than its ideology. Swing voters tend to vote for both right-wing and left-wing ideologies. In a high-price environment, that can lead to a voter opting for both Trump and higher pay."They're looking at the fact that things are expensive, and they're just trying to think of what policies they think might address that," Brennan said.After all, getting paid more matters to Americans across the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/2024-election-democrats-republican-opinions-abortion-guns-climate-childcare-marijuana-2024-8#but-americans-are-united-in-believing-that-the-country-spends-too-little-on-childcare-2">political spectrum.</a>"My takeaway would be regardless of what party you are, if you are not speaking to people's pay and job conditions and not supporting measures that will clearly improve job quality for people, then you're missing an opportunity to generate support," Cooper said.Did you vote for Trump and a higher minimum wage? Contact this reporter at <a target="_blank" href="mailto:jkaplan@businessinsider.com">jkaplan@businessinsider.com</a>.

Red, blue, and green: US voters elected minimum wage increases

The <keyword id="19949639" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="Rupee" source="keywords">rupee</keyword> traded flat at 83.53 against the US currency in early trade on Friday amid firm <keyword id="20024983" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="crude-oil-prices" source="keywords">crude oil prices</keyword> and gains in domestic stocks. At the interbank <keyword id="21316589" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="foreign-exchange-market" source="keywords">foreign exchange market</keyword>, the rupee opened flat at 83.53 against the <keyword id="19949640" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="US-dollar" source="keywords">US dollar</keyword>. The local unit moved in a tight range of 83.50 to 83.54 in morning deals. The rupee was trading flat at 83.53 against the US dollar at 0935 hrs. Forex dealers said the impact of firm crude oil prices was offset by overnight losses in the US dollar index and early gains in the domestic equity markets. The US dollar index eased on Thursday after softer US inflation data raised hopes of rate cut by the US Fed by September. Meanwhile, the dollar index, which gauges the greenback's strength against a basket of six currencies, was trading 0.05 per cent lower at 104.49. Brent crude futures, the global oil benchmark, were trading 0.20 per cent higher at USD 85.60 per barrel. Domestic equity markets were trading higher in early session on Friday. Benchmark Sensex climbed 226.11 points to 80,123.45 while broader Nifty was up 82.1 points to 24,398.05. Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) were net sellers in the capital markets on Thursday as they offloaded shares worth Rs 1,137.01 crore, according to exchange data.

Rupee trades flat at 83.53 against US dollar in early trade

<keyword id="19991358" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="Indian-markets" source="keywords">Indian markets</keyword> are navigating choppy waters as global economic shifts, from rate cuts to evolving political climates, create new pressure points across the financial landscape, according to a recent report by ANI attributed originally to the Union Bank of India. The domestic stock and bond markets showed signs of strain, with <keyword id="19910363" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="bond-yields" source="keywords">bond yields</keyword> witnessing slight adjustments. India’s 10-year government bond yield dipped to 6.82%, a decrease from the previous session, reflecting cautious investor sentiment as the markets react to shifting global indicators. Meanwhile, the 5-year bond yield remained steady at 6.76%, a signal of lingering hesitation amid economic unpredictability. In the currency market, the rupee faced a notable decline, ending the day at ₹84.3725 against the US dollar, slipping from its prior close of ₹84.2800. Market analysts point to significant capital outflows as a key factor, with investors moving funds to perceived safer assets overseas. This migration has weighed heavily on the rupee, underlining the currency’s vulnerability in an environment of global economic flux. India’s stock market bore the brunt of this volatility, with key indices falling over 1%, effectively erasing the gains of a previous rally. This abrupt drop reportedly reflects renewed investor anxiety, largely triggered by the recent <keyword id="20189882" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="US-presidential-election" source="keywords">US presidential election</keyword> results. Experts suggest that the election has introduced a fresh layer of uncertainty, not only for the US economy but for global markets, impacting everything from policy decisions to investor sentiment. Analysts are also keeping a close eye on upcoming decisions by central banks, which will likely shape the path forward for the Indian equities market. Commodities showed contrasting trends, with Brent crude prices falling on lower demand expectations, as economic indicators point toward cautious spending globally. Gold, on the other hand, experienced a modest rise as investors sought refuge in safe-haven assets, highlighting a shift towards risk aversion among market participants. Globally, major central banks made coordinated efforts to sustain economic growth, with the Bank of England (BoE) announcing a 25 basis-point cut, lowering its benchmark rate to 4.75%. The BoE’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) largely backed this move to counter inflation, which has been declining, albeit gradually. Across the Atlantic, the US Federal Reserve mirrored this action with its own 25 basis-point cut, a sign of confidence in the ongoing economic recovery. Both rate cuts, though modest, signal a global trend towards caution as economies work to balance growth with stability. In Asia, the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) maintained its supportive stance. Governor Pan Gongsheng sought to reassure foreign investors by reaffirming the PBoC’s commitment to growth-oriented policies. Pan emphasized enhanced communication and pledged to open China’s financial services sector further, aiming to attract more international participants. Europe, meanwhile, faced mixed economic signals. Germany reported a steep 2.5% drop in industrial production in September, signalling a slowdown in manufacturing, while the Eurozone saw a mild 0.5% rise in retail sales, reflecting cautious consumer optimism in the region. Adding another layer to the global economic landscape, the European Union’s Climate Change Service warned that 2024 could be the hottest year on record, underscoring urgent climate challenges just as the UN COP29 climate summit approaches. The summit, set to take place in Azerbaijan, aims to rally increased funding for climate action, though tempered expectations linger in light of recent US political shifts. On the domestic front, Niti Aayog CEO BVR Subrahmanyam spoke about India’s potential role in pivotal global trade agreements, specifically the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) and the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP). These partnerships, Subrahmanyam suggested, could bolster India’s Micro, Small, and Medium Enterprises (MSME) sector, which currently accounts for 40% of India’s exports, offering a strategic advantage for Indian trade in an interconnected world. As the Indian markets digest these developments, experts believe continued volatility could be the theme for the coming months. (with ANI inputs)

Indian markets under pressure as global rate cuts stir uncertainty, new report says

The rupee depreciated 9 paise to 83.43 against the <keyword id="19949640" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="US-dollar" source="keywords">US dollar</keyword> in early trade on Monday amid rising <keyword id="20024983" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="crude-oil-prices" source="keywords">crude oil prices</keyword> and outflow of <keyword id="20480744" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="foreign-capital" source="keywords">foreign capital</keyword>. The domestic unit, however, found support due to a softening American currency and positive equity market sentiment, <keyword id="20024982" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="forex-traders" source="keywords">forex traders</keyword> said. At the interbank foreign exchange market, the local unit opened at 83.39 and lost further ground to trade at 83.43 against the greenback in initial deals, registering a fall of 9 paise from its previous closing level. On Friday, the rupee settled 11 paise higher at 83.34 against the US dollar. Meanwhile, the <keyword id="19976503" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="dollar-index" source="keywords">dollar index</keyword>, which gauges the greenback's strength against a basket of six currencies, was trading at 105.30, lower by 0.23 per cent. "The US dollar eased slightly on Friday after data showed inflation subsided, reinforcing expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts this year," said Anand James, Chief Market Strategist, Geojit Financial Services. Brent crude futures, the global oil benchmark, advanced 0.52 per cent to USD 85.44 per barrel. In the domestic equity market, the 30-share BSE Sensex advanced 136.09 points, or 0.17 per cent, to 79,168.82. The broader NSE Nifty rose 41.75 points, or 0.17 per cent, to 24,052.35. Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) were net sellers in the capital markets on Friday, as they offloaded shares worth Rs 23.09 crore, according to exchange data. India's forex reserves jumped by USD 816 million to USD 653.711 billion in the week ended June 21, the RBI said on Friday. In the previous week, the overall reserves had dropped by USD 2.922 billion to USD 652.895 billion. The eight key infrastructure sectors' growth rose by 6.3 per cent in May on healthy expansion in the production of coal, natural gas, and electricity, though the growth rate was lower than in April, according to official data released on Friday. The central government's fiscal deficit was at 3 per cent of the annual estimates at May-end 2024-25, the first two months of the financial year during which model code of conduct was in place due to Lok Sabha elections. SEE ALSO:<a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/tech/mobile/news/vivo-v30e-review/articleshow/111385109.cms" target="_blank"></a> <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/tech/mobile/news/vivo-v30e-review/articleshow/111385109.cms" target="_blank">Vivo V30e review – mid-range smartphone with a large battery and sleek design</a><a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/tech/mobile/webstories/upcoming-smartphones-launching-in-india-in-july-2024/slidelist/111304902.cms" target="_blank"></a> <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/tech/mobile/webstories/upcoming-smartphones-launching-in-india-in-july-2024/slidelist/111304902.cms" target="_blank">Upcoming smartphones launching in India in July 2024</a><a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/business/auto/news/upcoming-cars-launching-in-india-in-july-2024/slidelist/111341281.cms" target="_blank"></a> <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/business/auto/news/upcoming-cars-launching-in-india-in-july-2024/slidelist/111341281.cms" target="_blank">Upcoming cars launching in India in July 2024</a>

Rupee falls 9 paise to 83.43 against US dollar in early trade

<ul class="summary-list"><li>US stocks were lower Monday as investors braced for the US presidential election. </li><li>Record voter turnout is expected, with over 76 million early votes already cast.</li></ul>US stocks traded slightly lower on Monday as investors prepared for an action-packed week of events.All eyes are on the US Presidential election, with polls set to close Tuesday evening. So far, more than 76 million Americans have voted via mail-in ballots or via early in-person voting, suggesting potential record turnout this year. After <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/harris-trump-iowa-polling-lead-swing-states-2024-11">a shock Iowa poll showed Kamala Harris leading the state</a> against Donald Trump over the weekend, betting odds have tightened in the race after Trump spent the weeks leading up to the vote far ahead of Harris. For a full rundown of the implications for the economy and stock market based on who wins the election, read BI's deep dive on <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/election-preview-consumer-outlook-how-trump-harris-housing-taxes-2024-11">the potential impacts here.</a>After the election, investors will shift their attention to the Federal Reserve. The central bank's FOMC meeting is scheduled for Wednesday and Thursday, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/interest-rate-cuts-federal-reserve-election-jerome-powell-inflation-jobs-2024-11">with an interest rate decision expected on Thursday.</a>According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets see a 96% chance of the Fed cutting rates by 25 basis points.Investors will also pay attention to initial jobless claims and productivity data, set to be released Thursday morning.Here's where US indexes stood shortly after the 9:30 a.m. opening bell on Monday:<ul><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/s&amp;p_500?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">S&amp;P 500</a>: 5,711.31, down 0.31%</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/dow_jones?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Dow Jones Industrial Average</a>: 41,893.80, down 0.38% (-158.39)</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/nasdaq_composite?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Nasdaq composite</a>: 18,121.72, down 0.62%</li></ul>Here's what else is going on:<ul><li><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/berkshire-hathaway-apple-stake-cut-quarterly-earnings-2024-11">Berkshire Hathaway trimmed its stake in Apple again. The conglomerate is now sitting of $325 billion in cash.</a></li><li><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/us-oil-opec-crude-production-record-oil-prices-commodity-market-2024-11">The US is pumping more oil than ever, and it's complicating things for crude-exporting countries.</a></li><li><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/nvidia-replace-intel-dow-jones-industrial-average-2024-11">Nvidia will replace Intel in the Dow Jones Industrial Average, and Sherwin-Williams will replace Dow.</a></li><li><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/wall-street-election-predictions-professional-investor-survey-2024-11">Wall Street professionals expect Donald Trump to win the Presidential election, according to a new survey.</a></li></ul>In commodities, bonds, and crypto:<ul><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price">West Texas Intermediate</a> crude oil rose 2.59% to $71.29 a barrel. <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price">Brent crude</a>, the international benchmark, was higher by 2.42% to $74.87 a barrel.</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/gold-price">Gold</a> jumped 0.19% to $2,754.30 an ounce.</li><li>The 10-year Treasury yield declined 11 basis points to 4.284%.</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/currencies/btc-usd">Bitcoin</a> decreased 0.17% to $68.627.</li></ul>

Stock market today: Indexes trade lower as investors brace for US election

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Christophe Barraud predicts US growth will accelerate after the election.</li><li>His forecasts consider election outcomes, Congress control, and economic impacts.</li></ul>No one can predict the future with certainty. But when it comes to forecasting the economy, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/most-accurate-economist-shares-his-forecasts-us-outlook-2024-7">Christophe Barraud</a> has a startling track record.Bloomberg has ranked the chief economist and strategist at Market Securities Monaco the top US forecaster every year except once since 2012. In the quarterly standings, Barraud clinched the top spot again for the third quarter of 2024.Right now, he has his sights set on the US election, with its high stakes and wide range of <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-trade-vs-kamala-harris-opportunity-economy-policies-market-impact-2024-8">economic possibilities</a>. It's a tight race with two very different candidates who would produce different policy outcomes. Perhaps the question that's even bigger than who the next president will be is <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-harris-swing-states-election-2024-10">how much power they will wield</a>; no matter how small or grand they seem, policies are hard to pass without a majority in Congress.Barraud expects <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/america-new-economic-supercycle-growth-inflation-stock-market-global-chaos-2024-10">US growth to accelerate</a> once the results are in, and regardless of who gets elected, he said in an interview. This is because uncertainty has spooked growth as corporations halted big decisions around capex and hiring. Additionally, numerous adverse events, including union strikes and weather conditions like hurricanes, put a damper on things.Overall, he says US GDP growth will run stronger than consensus forecasts. This means that 2024's expected rate of 2.6% would come in at 2.7%, and 2025's consensus of 1.8% would be closer to 2.1%.But growth can differ depending on how Washington is sliced and diced next year. Here's how.<h2 id="1c0bab2f-883e-47e9-9e9b-3eed9804fe05">Barraud's election forecasts — and his most likely outcome</h2>In scenario one, where Vice President Kamala Harris wins with a divided Congress, not much <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/what-is-going-on-with-economy-jobs-inflation-election-voting-2024-10">on the economic front</a> is likely to change. Therefore, expect the status quo, he said.In scenario two, former president Donald Trump wins, but with a divided Congress. This would limit his ability to cut taxes for corporations and households. Therefore, he will likely focus his efforts on foreign policy, meaning everything linked to trade restrictions and tariffs could be implemented sooner than expected, Barraud said. The outcome would hurt global growth. In the short term, it would be neutral on US GDP. However, over the long run, as countries retaliate, this could backfire and slow the US economy.The third scenario is a Trump win with a Republican sweep, which Barraud believes is the most likely outcome. He expects Republicans to take the Senate; it's the House that could be a toss-up.If Trump does gain a majority, it would enable him to implement tax cuts for corporations and households. It may also cause him to focus more on domestic rather than foreign policy. In the short term, it would have a positive impact on US economic growth, creating a GDP boost in 2025 between 2.1% and 2.3%, he said.However, there's a bigger problem: Barraud's heavy-weight clients, which include big banks, hedge funds, and pension funds, are increasingly asking him about the trajectory of the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=76S3iMfcZE8">ballooning US deficit</a>. At the center of that concern is how big the deficit can get if Trump is elected and implements tax cuts resulting in US revenue shortfalls and how it could impact the 10-year.For that, he has a few modeled projections. In the case of a Trump win, he expects an initial shock jump on the 10-year yield to at least 4.5% based on where yields are today, near 4.23%. If he doesn't get a majority in Congress, then longer term, the yield could move an additional 15 basis points to 4.35%, again based on where yields are today. If there's a Republican sweep, then it would be followed by a gradual move up to 5% as investors seek a higher risk premium. This would be especially the case if he cuts immigration in a healthy labor market, causing further inflation.The 10-year yield last traded at 5% a year ago and in 2007 before then. If Harris wins with a dividend Congress, yields could drop further from where they are, he said. This is because the market has already priced in a Republican win. So firstly, it would correct down, he added.But what makes Barraud so sure about his predictions, even when his track record is taken into account? His secret sauce isn't in his personal opinion or high-level perspective. When asked "why" something is expected to shift, he laughs and says it's the model's output.Like a quant trader, Barraud's calculations are built on a three-step methodology that involves collecting the latest and greatest economic, financial, and satellite data, determining key signals based on backtests, and then merging input from additional models to challenge the projections, expose risks, and tighten output. This time, election forecasting includes monitoring multiple poll-betting markets with the highest volume of users to gauge election outcomes.

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