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<ul class="summary-list"><li>The presidential election has the potential to reshape the investment landscape.</li><li>Detailed below is what Wall Street is saying about investing implications across multiple asset classes.</li></ul>With the presidential election just over a week away, and the candidates in a dead heat in the polls, Americans are in suspense about how their lives will change under a new leader.Business Insider has prepared a five-part refresher for the final stretch that will unpack the potential impact that both Donald Trump and Kamala Harris presidencies will have on US consumers. Today's first installment is focused on the investment landscape.To date, Trump and Harris have outlined specific policy proposals that will impact different parts of the stock market. Their varying platforms will also be crucial in determining the future path of interest rates, which will shape the bond market.But they're not expected to have diametrically opposed impacts on everything, with both candidates seen as positive forces for crypto.Detailed below is the latest research and commentary from top Wall Street strategists, outlining how the market and investing landscape will shift under potential Trump or Harris administrations.The guide covers four specific asset classes, and is divided between the Trump and Harris impact on each.<h2 id="40896f3b-9c3a-42aa-82ae-49a1761381ac">Stocks</h2>From the perspective of equities, it's helpful to look at the potential impact on both the micro (specific sectors set to be impacted) and the macro (how the broader market will respond).<h3 id="24c47698-0ee7-4a48-bb04-abe2a4f630c2">Trump</h3><h4 id="51cc4655-bf14-43bc-b772-b54703215a1c">Sectors</h4>Much of the industry guidance for the stock market under Trump boils down to his proposed tax policies. Bank of America says his plan to cut the corporate tax rate to 15% from 21% will boost corporate earnings by 4%. How much it impacts each sector ultimately depends on sensitivity to changes in the tax rate.To that end, BofA says the consumer discretionary and communication services sectors — the areas most beholden to tax-rate changes — will benefit the most. On the flip side, less exposed areas like utilities, real estate, and energy will get the smallest boost.For energy specifically, Trump's pro-drilling stance — while supportive of industry activity — will likely lead to oversupply and lower oil prices, says BNY Wealth. That, in turn, will hurt corporate profitability in the sector and drag on stock prices.It's also worth noting that energy was the worst-performing sector during Trump's previous presidential tenure.Financials is another area of the stock market seen benefiting from a Trump win. <a target="_blank" rel=" nofollow" class="" href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/if-trump-wins-he-plans-free-wall-street-burdensome-regulations-2024-04-12/">Allies of the former president have said</a> he aims to unburden banks from many of the regulations that were imposed following the 2008 financial crisis, something that his first administration tried to do with limited success.Those looser regulations could could also ignite a fresh wave of mergers and acquisitions, which would increase advisory revenue for big banks and help drive up profits from dealmaking.<h4 id="08ac2f7c-0094-48df-8910-ca3b12ae746a">Broader market</h4>Zooming out and assessing the full equity-market landscape, views are divided, particularly along partisan lines. Trump's proposed tax and regulatory policies are seen by his supporters as pro-business, which would be good news for corporate profit growth and deal activity.But Trump critics argue that his proposal for universal tariffs and steeper levies on Chinese imports — as well as a crackdown on immigration — will be inflationary, which could hold back stock prices. The nonpartisan Tax Foundation says the tariff plan in particular could <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://taxfoundation.org/blog/trump-mckinley-tariffs-great-depression/">hurt profit margins and put pressure on consumer spending</a>.Bank of America estimates that 60% tariffs on China and 10% on other countries would lower S&amp;P 500 earnings per share by 3.1%. That would be a problem since earnings growth has long been the stock market's primary driver of gains."The conventional wisdom is wrong: Trump is not going to substantially cut taxes once in office; he is going to raise taxes by jacking up tariffs. To the extent that this dampens economic activity, it is bad news for stocks," BCA Research chief strategist Peter Berezin said.<h3 id="fe116c39-7eef-494d-b923-93e68c7490b4">Harris</h3><h4 id="82c14dd6-d54a-4af0-a6d6-b171c6d4ccd1">Sectors</h4>Just like with Trump, much of the guidance around the stock market under Harris involves her tax plan. Her proposal to hike the corporate tax rate to 28% from 21% would have an inverse effect on sectors.That means consumer discretionary and communication services — the top beneficiaries under Trump — would be hit the hardest under a Harris regime, BofA says."Consumer discretionary stocks have underperformed the S&amp;P 500 modestly since Harris' presidential candidacy was announced, perhaps reflecting concerns that a Democratic President could result in higher corporate taxes and employee wages," BNY Wealth said.Financial firms will also feel a negative impact of both higher taxes and Harris' proposed regulatory tightening.But there are bright spots too. A Harris victory would likely benefit homebuilder stocks because of her proposal to build 3 million houses. Renewable-energy stocks should also see gains due to the favorable view of wind and solar energy by Democrats.Both sectors have outperformed in recent months during periods when Harris saw positive momentum in election polls.<h4 id="27decf30-ab8c-4ed1-beaf-70dfe2073247">Broader market</h4>The stock market <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-today-sp500-hits-another-record-high-q3-earnings-2024-10">has soared to records</a> during Joe Biden's presidency, up more than 50% since he was inaugurated, and a Kamala Harris win would likely be a continuation of many of the same policies that have been supportive of the market.Those include infrastructure investments and tax incentives to bring manufacturing jobs back to the country, like in the semiconductor industry via the CHIPS and Science Act.But BofA says Harris' proposed tax hike would also put downward pressure on corporate profits, which estimates a 5% earnings hit. Beyond that, a quadrupling of the stock buyback tax to 4% would also take 1% off S&amp;P 500 profits, the firm said.With all of these cross-currents swirling, a neutral market outcome must also be assessed.<h3 id="cefe8193-23a0-4521-8119-4d27dde3396d">A potentially muted impact</h3>Capital Economics believes neither a Trump nor Harris win will mean all that much for stock prices because bigger trends — specifically AI — will shape the market's direction."Our upbeat projections for the stock market in 2024 and 2025 are predicated on a view that hype over AI will continue to fuel a stock market bubble," the research firm said. Capital Economics has a 2025 year-end price target of 7,000 for the S&amp;P 500, regardless of which candidate wins the election.Meanwhile, Bank of America said that as long as corporate profits continue to grow, the stock market will <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-election-impact-outlook-harris-trump-energy-tesla-biden-2024-10">rise regardless of who wins</a> the White House.<h2 id="7a7d474f-4301-46c7-a48c-d475d0abd0a4">Bonds</h2>The performance of the US bond market largely hinges on the direction of interest rates.As interest rates rise, bond prices generally fall, and vice versa. And since presidential actions usually impact rates, the bond market will be shaped by what either Trump or Harris end up doing.<h3 id="aa298578-a5d5-4e0a-ab3b-fcb78a88d8dc">Trump</h3>A Trump win would is seen ushering in higher interest rates, which would push bond prices lower. It ultimately boils down to inflation.Economists see Trump's double-whammy proposals of mass deportation and universal tariffs as inflationary. And since the Federal Reserve's primary tool for fighting inflation is raising interest rates, bond prices would suffer as yields rise."Our assessment is that a Trump win would lead to higher US yields," Capital Economics said.Estimates from the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.crfb.org/papers/fiscal-impact-harris-and-trump-campaign-plans">Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget</a> — a non-profit think tank — say a wider deficit and an increasing pile of debt under a Trump presidency, compared to a Harris presidency, would also put upward pressure on interest rates. That would also hurt the performance of bonds.<h3 id="c267d16e-6b3a-4db4-8316-c599ab723494">Harris</h3>Capital Economics said it expects interest rates to fall under a Harris win, which would be good news for bonds, as she wouldn't pursue certain inflationary policies like tariffs or immigration deportations, which could fuel wage inflation.Harris' policies, considered to be less inflationary than Trump's, would also allow the Federal Reserve to continue on their path of cutting interest rates, which would boost bond prices.A Bloomberg survey of institutional investors last month found that 30% of investors would add to their bond exposure if Harris wins, while just 17% said they would buy more bonds if Trump wins.Additionally, 46% of respondents said they would reduce their bond exposure if Trump wins, compared to just 23% under a Harris win.<h2 id="648d1263-465a-44c9-b50e-97ea3cd444a7">Crypto</h2><h3 id="77a393b0-f8c1-49d8-b73b-e2f0119e53e1">Trump</h3>A Trump win is seen as bullish for bitcoin and the broader cryptocurrency industry, as former President Donald Trump has <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-bitcoin-stance-2024-7?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">firmly embraced digital assets</a> in recent years.According to Bernstein analyst Gautam Chhugani, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/currencies/bitcoin-price-outlook-90000-target-if-trump-wins-november-election-2024-9">bitcoin could hit $90,000 by December</a> if Trump wins the election, representing potential upside of about 37% from current levels."Elections remain hard to call, but if you are long crypto here, you are likely taking a Trump trade," Chhugani said.<h3 id="58f9bbfb-d544-465f-8607-1b699202db17">Harris</h3>Harris <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/kamala-harris-donald-trump-crypto-bitcoin-donors-young-men-2024-9">has also embraced the crypto industry</a> in recent months, though she's seen as slightly less bullish compared to Trump, given his public displays of support, including addressing crypto conferences and <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-nfts-digital-cards-mahattan-trial-2024-5">launching his own NFTs</a>.Yet, Wall Street seems to think that a big case for bitcoin will remain intact no matter who wins. The US government debt pile is expected grow regardless of who controls the White House. That scenario is among bitcoin's biggest bull theses."I'm not sure if either President or other candidate would make a difference. I do believe the utilization of digital assets is going to become more and more of a reality worldwide," BlackRock CEO Larry Fink said during the company's third-quarter earnings call.<h2 id="bb5f6b7e-fd9d-459b-a7dd-22eebbb1993b">US dollar</h2><h3 id="0ae89f53-6e41-467c-8f2a-8aa885fcaf18">Trump</h3>Trump's tax plan and protectionist trade policies are expected to strengthen the dollar. It's <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-dollar-trump-presidential-election-weaker-usd-policy-intervention-trillions-2024-7">the opposite</a> of what the presidential hopeful has said he wants, since a weaker currency makes a nation's exports more competitive in global trade.These policies are expected to be inflationary, which would push interest rates higher and possibly prompt the Fed to tighten. Those climbing rates would then underpin dollar gains."Should he re-take the White House ... the dollar would probably rally sharply, at least in the near term, on expectations of higher US tariffs and interest rates," Capital Economics said in recent research.<h3 id="e5ae53de-b9c3-4069-a7a1-5fc244dc29c6">Harris</h3>A Harris presidency would continue the trends of a weaker dollar due to "policy continuity" of the Biden administration, Capital Economics said.Since Harris' overall platform is less expansionary, it's expected to drive less inflationary pressure, and therefore keep the coast clear for the Fed to cut rates and stimulate the economy as currently planned.That likelihood of lower interest would, in turn, push the dollar lower.

How a Trump or Harris presidency could impact your investments

India could see a shift in foreign direct investment (FDI) trends in the second term of Donald Trump (Trump 2.0) as President of the United States, says a research report by the State Bank of India. The report highlighted that under his first term, Trump 1.0, the Trump administration made sweeping regulatory changes aimed at attracting investments back to the U.S., which impacted FDI inflows globally, including India. It added that if similar policies are reintroduced in Trump 2.0 also, it could create challenges for emerging markets like India, which rely on FDI as a significant driver of economic growth. Notably, a recent Kotak report highlighted that a complete Republican control over all arms of the US government would mean increased US earnings via corporate tax cuts, higher tariffs on imports into the US and greater US fiscal deficits. The first two could spell doom for emerging markets like India and China, since foreign investors will make a beeline for investing more money in the US markets, which will come at the cost of intense selloff in emerging markets. However, higher fiscal deficits will eventually lead to the dollar weakening after the initial euphoria dies down. "India may see shifts in foreign direct investments (FDIs) during Trump 2.0. The Trump 1.0 administration saw significant regulatory changes aimed at attracting investments back to the US," the SBI report stated. However, given that India has been gradually diversifying its sources of FDI (foreign direct investments), this trend could serve as a buffer against any potential decline. Moreover, domestic institutional investors have been stepping up big time, maintaining some balance to the massive exodus of FIIs over the past month. So far in November 2024, FIIs have withdrawn Rs 19,849 crores from the cash segment in Indian markets, while DIIs have poured in Rs 14,014.18 crores as of November 10th, 2024. "India is no longer dependent on the traditional sources of FDI inflows... unlike the recent past, FDI is now coming in many new sectors," noted the SBI report. Unlike a decade ago, when most FDI inflows came from a limited number of traditional sectors, India is now attracting investment in a wide array of industries, including renewable energy, sea transport, medical devices, and surgical appliances. Data suggests over the last 24 years, i.e., between April 2000 and June 2024, FDIs have poured in $1,013.4 billion in the Indian economy. Out of this, 67%, i.e., $689.88 billion, has come in just the last 10 years. The report added there are up to 12 emerging sectors showing strong FDI interest, which could help offset any loss of inflows in conventional sectors if there is a shift in global investment patterns under another Trump administration. In the last financial year, the top 5 sectors that have received the highest quantum of FDI inflow include the services sector (finance, banking, insurance, and business) which makes up about 16% of the inflows. This is followed computer software &amp; hardware, which constitute around 15% of total FDI flows. Trading and telecommunications follows with a share of 6% each, and Automobile Industry comes next with a 5% share. In the short term, the potential for increased U.S. tariffs, more restrictive H-1B visa policies, and a stronger dollar could bring some volatility to India's trade and investment landscape. However, in the long term, these challenges might also encourage India to expand its manufacturing capabilities, diversify export markets, and focus on becoming economically more self-reliant. Notably, India has maintained a merchandise trade surplus with the U.S. despite tariffs imposed during Trump's first term. This indicates that Indian exports have remained resilient, and there is potential to strengthen this trade relationship further by capitalizing on emerging sectors and reducing dependency on traditional industries. Suman Chowdhury, Executive Director &amp; Chief Economist, Acuité Ratings &amp; Research Limited cautions that in the medium to long term, the trade relationship with the US may see a structural improvement. "Higher tariff and trade restrictions in the US with China should translate into better opportunities for exports of manufactured goods from India", he adds.

FDIs may shift to US under Trump 2.0 but it is unlikely to severely impact FDIs inflow to India, says SBI Report

Days after Trump won his way to the White House, becoming the 47th President of the United States, the US Federal Reserve slashed the interest rates by 25 basis points, bringing them within the range of 4.5-4.75%. This is the second time this year that the Fed has lowered the interest rates, after cutting them down by 50 basis points in September 2024. u Fed chair Jerome Powell noted that monetary policy remains tight as inflation remains elevated at 2.4% as of September 2024, slightly above the 2% mark set by the commission. However, the Fed remained optimistic about the current state of the economy. "The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at 2% over the longer run. The Committee judges that the risks to achieving its employment and inflation goals are roughly in balance. The economic outlook is uncertain, and the Committee is attentive to the risks to both sides of its dual mandate," the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) noted in its press release. The rate cut was along widely anticipated lines, although experts were wary of the Fed's way ahead, given that Donald Trump has been elected as the US President. In the past, he has, on multiple occasions, expressed his desire to yield greater influence on the Fed, apart from publicly criticizing Powell. However, Powell continued to stand his ground, noting that Trump cannot legally sack him. He believed in keeping the Fed independent, at least until his tenure as governor ends in 2028. He highlighted that even if he is explicitly asked by Trump to quit, he won't do so. <h2>Trump's regime to inch up inflation?</h2> Trump's electoral promises, if translated into policies, could spell disaster for the Fed's effort to curtail inflation. Reportedly, Trump has promised to levy aggressive tariffs against US trading partners, particularly China, and even extend his 2017 tax cuts. This could mean higher levels of the federal deficit, which would push up prices, wages, and hence, inflation, even as the Fed tries to consistently bring it under control. Apurva Sheth, Head of Market Perspectives and Research, SAMCO Securities, notes that it wasn't a surprise when the US Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points (bps) to 4.75%. The Fed had given enough clues, and the market too had anticipated these rate cuts. "However, what was surprising was how the <keyword id="23863852" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="US-10-year-bond-yields" source="keywords">US 10-year bond yields</keyword> moved over the last one and a half months, which have been rising relentlessly from 3.6% to almost 4.5% despite the 50 bps cut in the last Fed meeting. It seems that the market is anticipating slower rate cuts going ahead, and maybe there are even chances of inflation rising. The bond yields have cooled off and slipped below the 4.335% mark. This should be bullish for emerging markets like India," he added.

US Fed cuts interest rates by 25 bps, Powell notes Trump's victory to have no impact on policy decisions

Global markets are looking ahead to the US Fed's meeting scheduled for Thursday, November 7, 2024, expecting the Jerome Powell-chaired FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) to slash interest rates further by 0.25%. In September this year, the Fed surprised the markets by cutting interest rates by a massive 0.5%, for the first time in 4 years. As per the <keyword id="23807624" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="CME-Fed-Watch-Tool" source="keywords">CME Fed Watch Tool</keyword>, there is now a 99.5% chance that the Fed will reduce the interest rates by around 25 basis points, bringing it within the range of 4.5% to 4.75%. Only 0.5% believe that the Fed might leave the rates unchanged, within their present range of 4.75% to 5%. As for the Fed's December meeting, scheduled for December 18, per the CME Fed Watch tool, 79.5% believe that interest rates would be in the range of 4.25% to 4.5%. Another 20.4% believe that yields will remain in the range of 4.5% and 4.75%. Only 0.1% see the interest rates staying within their current range of 4.75% to 5% <h2>No major changes anticipated</h2>However, it is unlikely that this quarter-point rate cut would bring about any significant financial changes in the US economy. The Fed is again expected to bring down the interest rates by another 25 basis points in their December meeting. This would imply a total rate cut of about 50 basis points by the end of this year. So, why is the Fed not bringing down interest rates by 50 basis points in one fell swoop this time around? Why wait till December to bring down the rates by another 25 basis points? Experts believe that it could stoke inflation, which has seen a sharp decline in the recent past. A steep slash of borrowing rates could accelerate borrowing activity and inject significant cash into the economy at once, pushing up inflation. Per the Fed's recent projections, a total of 4 rate cuts are anticipated in 2025. On a YoY basis, inflation in the US dipped to 2.4%, close to the Fed's target of 2%. With inflationary pressures reined in, the economy growing at the rate of 2.8% during the third quarter of FY24, and the unemployment rate down to 4.1%, the markets see much merit in bringing interest rates down. This is especially important to boost spending, particularly in sectors such as housing and automobiles, where even a slight tinkering in interest rates can drastically impact the amount and volume of loans taken to own them. Data suggests that during Trump's presidency tenure, i.e., between 2017 and 2021, inflation averaged at a rate of 1.9% a year. During the Biden administration, where Kamala Harris served as VP, the inflation is on track to average around 5% a year. Shrisha Acharya, Vice President, Anand Rathi Global Finance, also notes that the results of the impending US elections, which are likely to be declared tomorrow, will impact the yields and stock markets. "The Trump card, coupled with potential Republican control, could mean higher bond yields due to anticipated increases in deficit spending, inflation risks, and potential tax cuts. This could very well jiggle the confidence in U.S. Treasury bonds and thus start a chain effect that will possibly impact global market stability and lead to short-term volatility. On the other hand, Harris’ rise has been met with a stock market rally glued on expectations of economic stability and controlled inflation, with more predictable fiscal policy likely to help in a soft landing," he explains.

What can you expect from the US Fed meeting later this week? Here's all you need to know

In early Wednesday trading, the Indian rupee slid 14 paise to hit an all-time low of 84.23 per US dollar, weighed down by continued outflows of foreign funds and a robust US dollar in global markets. Forex analysts highlighted the volatility stemming from the ongoing US elections, suggesting that stability could return once results are clear in this close race. The US Federal Reserve is also on the radar, with an anticipated interest rate cut this week and a projected easing of up to 100 basis points by 2025. At the interbank forex market, the rupee opened at its historic low of 84.23 against the dollar, down from its previous close of 84.09. On Tuesday, the currency had ended slightly stronger, gaining 2 paise. Meanwhile, the dollar index, which tracks the strength of the US dollar against six major currencies, climbed 1.64% to 105.11. According to Anil Kumar Bhansali, Head of Treasury at Finrex Treasury Advisors, the index rose following initial election results showing former President Trump ahead, with the Republican party also leading in both the Senate and the House of Representatives. The global oil market saw movement as Brent crude prices dipped 0.98%, trading at USD 74.79 per barrel. Bhansali noted that the rupee’s trajectory will heavily depend on the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) response, particularly as the currency fluctuates with real-time election outcomes. He estimated an intra-day trading range between 84.00 and 84.35. On the domestic front, Indian stock markets showed positive trends. The Sensex climbed by 390.93 points (0.49%) to reach 79,867.56, while the Nifty rose by 135.60 points (0.56%) to 24,348.90. Despite these gains, foreign institutional investors (FIIs) were net sellers on Tuesday, pulling out Rs 2,569.41 crore from the capital markets, as per stock exchange data. This withdrawal underscores the challenges facing the Indian currency amid global financial uncertainties. (with PTI inputs)

Rupee hits record low of 84.23 against US dollar amidst US elections 2024

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Donald Trump courted bitcoin lovers by branding himself the "crypto president."</li><li>The industry hopes his second term will bring regulatory changes and give bitcoin a role in the economy.</li></ul>Donald Trump flipped from <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/currencies/btc-usd?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">bitcoin</a> cynic to <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/currencies/trump-bitcoin-cryptocurrency-election-outlook-crypto-funding-regulation-biden-novogratz-2024-7?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">"crypto president"</a> and it paid off big.Trump <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/currencies/news/trump-bitcoin-commentary-seems-like-scam-against-the-us-dollar-2021-6-1030500598?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">disparaged digital assets</a> as recently as just a few years ago, describing bitcoin as a scam, and yet his latest electoral win was fueled in no small part by crypto-friendly pledges that unlocked millions in campaign funding.With Trump headed back to the White House, it's now the industry's turn to see if its bets on a second term paid off. Here's what they're want to see. <h2 id="1009b70b-3c95-4408-9e2d-ef2b16069f01">Regulatory overhaul</h2>One of the root themes of Trump's crypto platform is a promise to sweep aside regulatory restrictions that have hung over the industry in recent years.Criticism has been loud over the Biden administration's handling of the sector, characterized by heated confrontations between the Securities and Exchange Commission and major crypto players."Those guys, I mean, they just put so much uncertainty in this entire industry. It was unbelievable. There was no clear guidance, no regulations," said Tim Kravchunovsky, CEO of Chirp, a decentralized telecommunications company.Speaking with Business Insider, he added that regulatory conflict has pushed crypto business out of the US, costing Washington its competitive edge. Matt Mena, crypto research strategist at 21Shares, agreed with that sentiment. "By creating a more welcoming regulatory environment, this approach could draw back projects and founders who have left the country due to regulatory uncertainty, generating thousands of new jobs and millions in tax revenue, bolstering the economy while advancing the crypto sector," he told BI over email.To this end, the industry anticipates that Trump will replace regulatory heads with more crypto-friendly people. The president-elect is already surrounded by such figures, Mena said, such as Elon Musk, JD Vance, Robert F. Kennedy, and Howard Lutnick.Meanwhile, to make Trump's plan of turning the US into a "crypto hub" possible,Kravchunovsky suggested that Washington could provide incentives such as federal grants and tax cuts.<h2 id="b1a4e172-d8a3-4ea3-b022-1a29b3897ab5">Crypto bills</h2>On the legislative front, crypto players will also be watching for the repeal of SAB 121 and the passage of several key bills,SAB 121, an SEC policy document <a target="_blank" href="https://content.next.westlaw.com/practical-law/document/Idfd9dfac273211ef8921fbef1a541940/President-Biden-Vetoes-Legislation-Rescinding-SEC-Staff-Accounting-Bulletin-121-SAB-121-on-Crypto-Custody?viewType=FullText&amp;transitionType=Default&amp;contextData=(sc.Default)">kept in place by the Biden administration</a>, discourages US lenders from acting as crypto custiodians, given that it requires them to hold an equivalent amount of cash against their crypto holdings. It's removal would free institutional investors to further adopt digital assets.Mena also cited anticipation around FIT21, an act aiming to clarify the regulatory roles around digital assets. Consumer protections would also strengthen under this bill, he said.Meanwhile, Trump's administration could accelerate progress on three meaningful pieces of stablecoin legislation, which aim to set up guardrails around future stablecoin issuance. These dollar-pegged crypto assets are increasingly used for purposes similar to traditional finance, Standard Chartered said in a note on Friday.<h2 id="eae31105-86db-4e91-9d15-cfc75e92738f">A bitcoin reserve?</h2>Since Trump's victory, speculation has jumped that a strategic bitcoin reserve could be in on the way. Though the President-elect has not specifically voiced such a plan, the idea that his administration would buy bitcoin as a reserve asset has created enthusiasm among crypto bulls."We're already seeing that that [crypto's] gaining trust, and it's gaining trust within institutions and countries. More and more countries are adopting it. So I don't think it's a matter of years. I think it's a matter of months," Kravchunovsky said.Mena sees the price of bitcoin soaring to $1 million "almost overnight," if a strategic reserve were to be established. The scenario would prompt other nations to build up their own reserves, pushing bitcoin's total market cap 13 times higher. Meanwhile, Standard Chartered head of FX research Geoff Kendrick considers a bitcoin reserve fund as a high-impact development with a low probability of happening for now. Investors should instead pay attention to Trump's separate promise to cease all sales of government bitcoin. If this happens, that could mean a sizeable upswing in the price of the token, he wrote.<h2 id="6a25764b-b3fc-4a7c-a689-ece320390cd4">Crypto's time to shine</h2>In whatever way the industry changes under Trump, one thing feels certain: the election has cemented the crypto markets place in the mainstream."Crypto is now essentially legal in the U.S., marking a major turning point for the industry," Mena wrote.According to Kendrick, crypto-friendly adjustments have the potential to drive the total market value of the cryptocurrency market to $10 trillion by the end of 2026, a major jump from the current $2.5 trillion level.He reiterated his expectation that bitcoin will hit $200,000 by the next year's end.

What the crypto market actually wants from a Trump presidency

India’s political landscape is increasingly being defined by the troubling nexus between crime and politics. A study has highlighted a startling correlation: the election of politicians with criminal records is directly linked to a rise in crime across the country, particularly in states with weaker institutional frameworks. As India's political system continues to grapple with this issue, the societal consequences are becoming clear. <h2>A history of <keyword id="23341122" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="criminal-politicians" source="keywords">criminal politicians</keyword></h2><keyword id="21026899" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Pappu-Yadav" source="keywords">Pappu Yadav</keyword>, a veteran politician from Bihar, serves as a prime example of this disturbing trend. Having represented his constituency for nearly 25 years, Yadav has faced 41 criminal cases, including serious accusations of murder and kidnapping. Despite his conviction in 2008, Yadav was acquitted in 2013, and he continues to hold political influence. His case is not unique; the political scene in states like Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, and Madhya Pradesh is littered with politicians facing multiple criminal charges. Anant Singh, another prominent figure from Bihar, holds a political career shadowed by 38 criminal cases, including murder, kidnapping, and attempts to murder. These individuals represent a broader pattern where politicians accused of serious crimes continue to serve in public office despite their criminal backgrounds. "They are getting elected, and over time the number has only been going up," remarks lead author Nishith Prakash. "In some states, it could be as high as almost 40% of people who are representing the state have some kind of a criminal accusation." <h2>Crime begets crime</h2>The research delves into the ramifications of electing criminally accused politicians. The study found that states with a higher number of such politicians also experienced increased <keyword id="22044507" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="crime-rates" source="keywords">crime rates</keyword>. For example, states like Bihar, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Odisha, and Uttar Pradesh, known for their historically weak institutions, have seen crime rise by 4.3% annually with the election of criminal politicians. The number increases to 5.8% when the politicians are accused of serious crimes like murder and kidnapping. <div type="Article" hostid="261" msid="113692670" title="What will it take for Kangana Ranaut’s &amp;#39;Emergency&amp;#39; to finally hit theatres?" mstype="2" mssubtype="0"></div>Prakash notes that weak rule of law and institutional failure create fertile ground for such politicians to not only rise to power but also exacerbate the deteriorating law-and-order situation. When politicians themselves are involved in criminal activities, they often manipulate legal and administrative systems, further weakening law enforcement and emboldening criminal networks. The reign of <keyword id="20122630" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="lalu-prasad-yadav" source="keywords">Lalu Prasad Yadav</keyword>, president of the Rashtriya Janata Dal political party in Bihar, illustrates the adverse impact criminal politicians can have. Under his leadership, Bihar’s political environment devolved into what is now infamously known as "Jungle Raj," a period marked by rampant kidnappings for ransom, particularly targeting affluent individuals like doctors and schoolchildren. The researchers note that during this time, the kidnapping industry flourished as criminals enjoyed either direct or indirect support from the state. <h2><keyword id="22404298" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="impact-on-women" source="keywords">Impact on women</keyword> and <keyword id="19900794" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="economic-growth" source="keywords">economic growth</keyword></h2>Beyond the immediate rise in general crime rates, the study revealed alarming statistics regarding crimes against women. Electing criminally accused politicians was found to increase crimes against women by 12.6%. In states where such politicians held office, female labour force participation dropped by 10-11%, as women felt unsafe and chose not to engage in work outside their homes. The research also highlighted the economic toll criminal politicians take on their constituencies. Areas represented by politicians accused of serious crimes saw economic growth lag between 2.3% and 6.5% per year compared to other regions. These leaders often misappropriate public funds, divert resources for personal gain, and enable criminal enterprises, all of which stifle local development. <h2>Legal measures taken</h2>India has made strides in identifying and tracking criminally accused politicians. A landmark 2003 ruling by the <keyword id="19895345" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Supreme-Court" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="Supreme Court" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="Supreme Court">Supreme Court</keyword> mandated that candidates for political office must disclose their criminal records, making it easier for voters and institutions to scrutinise their backgrounds. However, the law only disqualifies convicted individuals from running for office, allowing accused politicians to continue their political careers while facing serious charges. <div type="Article" hostid="261" msid="113446721" title="It&amp;#39;s not just the rhetoric — apathy and jokes could be fueling a spiral of retaliatory political violence, expert warns" mstype="2" mssubtype="0"></div>The research conducted by Prakash and his team has caught the attention of Indian courts and the Election Commission. While reform is slow, there is growing recognition that the quality of political leadership has a profound impact on societal outcomes, from crime rates to economic performance. "The quality of politicians matters," Prakash notes. "Who you elect has implications on outcomes that we care about. It could be economic growth, it could be crime against women, it could be labour force participation. These are very important outcomes for society and the economy." The findings of this research have been published in Journal of Law Economics and Organization and can be accessed <a href="https://docs.iza.org/dp15259.pdf">here</a>.

Not only does electing “criminal” politicians often lead to an increase in crime in India, it can also be terrible for the economy: study

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Bond yields surged after Trump's reelection, which could impact the rate borrowers get on loans. </li><li>The 10-year Treasury yield rose 18 basis points, and the 30-year bond yield saw its biggest jump since March 2020. </li></ul>Bond yields are soaring after <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/election-results-trump-harris-presidential-election-2024-11">Donald Trump's reelection,</a> suggesting that US borrowers might not get the relief they've been hoping for as Trump's policies have the potential to complicate the Federal Reserve's interest rate plans. The 10-year US Treasury yield surged 18 basis points on Wednesday morning to 4.477%, representing the highest level since July 1. It's surged 76 basis points since <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/mortgage-rate-increase-since-federal-reserve-cut-interest-rates-housing-2024-10">the Fed launched its first interest rate cut</a> of the cycle in mid-September.Longer-term yields also spiked, with the 30-year US Treasury yield jumping as much as 24 basis points for its biggest move higher since March 2020.Treasury yields influence the pricing of consumer and corporate debt, and the latest moves higher <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/mortgage-rates-influence-when-we-pay-off-mortgage-2024-11">will put pressure on consumer borrowers</a> who want to take out a mortgage to buy a house or an auto loan to buy a car. The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate — which closely tracks the 10-year Treasury yield — <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/todays-mortgage-rates-wednesday-6-2024-11">has been creeping up toward 7%</a> and is likely to eclipse that level if Wednesday's yield surge holds. That would send mortgage rates back to the levels they were at this summer, dimming hopes for potential home buyers to see some improvement in affordability. The surge in bond yields is being <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/market-impact-presidential-election-scenarios-trump-harris-stocks-bonds-crypto-2024-10">driven by the expectation that Trump's policy proposals,</a> like broad tariffs, tax cuts, and the deportation of millions of immigrants, would be inflationary, driving up prices and wage growth. That would cause the Fed to change its road map for further interest rate cuts as prices and wage growth once again creep up. "The Federal Reserve may take the view that if fiscal policy is going to be loosened relative to their previous baseline forecast then it needs to run monetary policy tighter, implying a higher neutral interest rate to keep inflation at its 2% target," James Knightley, an economist at ING Economics, said.While markets expect the Fed to proceed with a 25 basis point interest rate cut at its meeting on Thursday, the chances of another 25 basis point rate cut in December dropped to 66% on Wednesday from 77% on Tuesday, according to the CME's FedWatch Tool.Economist Derek Tang of LH Meyer/Monetary Policy Analytics said the Fed could already be recalibrating monetary policy to adapt to the expectations of a second Trump term."Their psychology might be, 'By cutting a little bit more slowly, that gives us a little bit more time to observe what's actually happening with inflation expectations and the labor market,'" <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-11-06/trump-victory-raises-big-uncertainties-for-the-federal-reserve">Tang said.</a>Trump himself strongly advocated for the Fed to cut interest rates aggressively during his first term as President, and also said during his campaign that the President should have a say in monetary policy.With Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's term set to end in May 2026, the nomination of a new Fed chair who is open to lowering interest rates despite the potential for higher inflation could occur."President Trump has an easy pathway to nominating and installing a candidate that is more willing to accommodate his views on interest rate policy," ING's Knightley said.

One market's reaction to Trump's win shows the economy might not get the immediate relief many hope for     

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Donald Trump proposed mass deportation to lower housing costs and boost job opportunities.</li><li>Democrats argue deportations harm businesses, separate families, and displace millions.</li></ul>The <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-deportation-immigration-policy-election-housing-home-prices-construction-costs-2024-10">mass deportation</a> of people living in the US illegally has been one of the cornerstones of the Republican presidential ticket leading up to the November election.In speeches, former president <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/housing-affordability-supply-impact-presidential-election-scenarios-homebuyers-harris-trump-2024-10">Donald Trump</a> has suggested that deportations could lower housing prices and give legal residents, especially Black and Hispanic Americans, more job opportunities. His supporters say allowing migrants to enter the country and live and work illegally places a long-term burden on the economy."We're going to have the largest deportation in the history of our country," Trump <a target="_blank" href="https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/trump-vows-mass-deportation-migrants-springfield-dismisses-threats/story?id=113661663">said in September</a> while taking reporter questions in Los Angeles. "And we're going to start with <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/springfield-ohio-town-center-baseless-trump-pet-eating-claims-tensions-2024-9">Springfield</a> and <a target="_blank" href="https://www.denverpost.com/2024/09/13/aurora-tren-de-aragua-donald-trump-venezuela-immigration/">Aurora</a>," he added, referring to the Ohio and Colorado cities where debates around immigration have been particularly tense.Many Democrats say <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-mass-deportation-immigraiton-plan-federal-reserve-inflation-2024-9">mass deportations</a> would hurt businesses and employment opportunities for all Americans, in addition to separating families and displacing millions of people. It's especially salient in the crucial southern border swing state of Arizona."We all remember what they did to tear families apart, and now they have pledged to carry out the largest deportation — a mass deportation — in American history," Vice President Kamala Harris said at a <a target="_blank" href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AFCjE-73yUw">September conference</a>. "Imagine what that would look like and what that would be. How is that going to happen? Massive raids? Massive detention camps?"Current <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/texas-latinos-shifting-right-trump-harris-gop-democrats-starr-county-2024-10">immigration</a> policy already supports deporting large numbers of unauthorized residents. The Biden administration has deported over <a target="_blank" href="https://www.migrationpolicy.org/article/biden-deportation-record">1.1 million</a> people from 2021 to February 2024, and Vice President Kamala Harris has supported <a target="_blank" href="https://www.piie.com/blogs/realtime-economics/2024/trump-vs-harris-immigration-future-policy-proposals">higher standards</a> for asylum eligibility.Deportations would likely continue under Harris' administration, but Trump's proposals would be an order of magnitude greater and perhaps the most consequential outcome of his second term.A September <a target="_blank" href="https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2024/09/09/issues-and-the-2024-election/">Pew Research Center poll</a> found that immigration is a key issue for more than half of Americans as they cast their ballots. To untangle the data and campaign rhetoric and understand the effects of mass deportation on the economy, Business Insider reviewed research and spoke with over a dozen experts, politicians, local advocacy organizations, and immigrants.<h2 id="460770c2-debc-4bb0-921f-c9c4040c1f7b">2 cities in Arizona show the crux of the economic debate</h2>Immigrants, both authorized and unauthorized, make up nearly 13% of Arizona's population, one of the highest in the country, the nonpartisan think tank <a target="_blank" href="https://www.migrationpolicy.org/data/state-profiles/state/demographics/AZ">Migration Policy Institute</a> estimates. Pew Research Center estimates <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.kjzz.org/kjzz-news/2024-07-30/report-undocumented-migrants-make-up-3-5-of-arizonas-population">as many as 250,000</a> Arizona residents could be deported under Trump's plan.Some of those deportees could be from Yuma, Arizona, a city near the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/kamala-harris-arizona-mexico-border-security-immigration-trump-election-2024-9">US-Mexico border</a>. Its mayor, Douglas Nicholls, told BI that upticks in illegal immigration have strained the city's resources and infrastructure.Nicholls, a Republican, plans to vote for Trump and wants the next president to focus on more funding and staffing for the Immigration and Customs Enforcement agency. He said the US needs to prioritize immediate processing for those seeking asylum, improve technology along the border, and expedite removal processes."We're not equipped as a community to handle large amounts of people coming through without resources," Nicholls said. "We don't have a homeless shelter focused on migrants. Our homeless shelter is focused on pretty much residents, and it's pretty busy at that already."When it comes to mass deportations, he said the town's main industry, agriculture, wouldn't suffer too much because employers use legal paths to work authorization, like H-2A or green-card programs, to recruit labor. He said that migrants tend to pass through Yuma before moving on.Tucson's mayor, Regina Romero, said the story is different in Arizona's second-most populous city. She told BI that a mass deportation would devastate the agriculture, construction, and hospitality industries.Romero, a Democrat who endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris, said immigrants living in the country illegally "pay <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/rich-life-insurance-estate-taxes-ilit-2024-9">taxes</a> and have billions of dollars worth of spending power."Instead of deportation, Romero said she wants the federal government to add more judges and staff to shorten asylum-application wait times and invest more in infrastructure at ports of entry."For many decades, Tucson has known how to help immigrant refugee and asylum-seeking populations connect to whomever they need to connect to," Romero said. "We know how to do it."<h2 id="797f992d-38a7-4c54-a0ef-9b344070016b">The national economic impact of mass deportations</h2>Removing the <a target="_blank" href="https://cmsny.org/us-undocumented-population-increased-in-july-2023-warren-090624/#:~:text=The%20total%20undocumented%20population%20increased,to%2010%20million%20in%202020.">estimated</a> 11.7 million unauthorized immigrants from the US would reshape the labor market, cost an enormous amount, strain government services, and affect economic growth and inflation for a decade or more.<h3 id="91aa708f-8270-476a-97e4-7e553eda3734">Employment and the labor market</h3>The Trump campaign and its allies have argued that deportations could open more employment opportunities for Americans.Immigrants are "going to be attacking — and they already are — Black population jobs, the Hispanic population jobs, and they're attacking union jobs, too," Trump said at an October rally in Reading, Pennsylvania.Immigrants account for a third of workers in jobs paying under $30,000 a year, the conservative think tank American Compass <a target="_blank" href="https://americancompass.org/a-guide-to-labor-supply/">said</a>. Duncan Braid, its coalition director, told BI that competition from those immigrants hurts lower-income Americans. He said while mass deportations may cost the government a lot of money, its role is to protect the Constitution and its citizens."We currently have a situation where there is sort of an unlimited number of lower-skilled people coming into this country, and them competing directly with other low-skilled Americans already here would necessarily, just based on very basic theory, suppress their wages," Braid said.Recent research suggests the opposite. A <a target="_blank" href="https://www.nber.org/papers/w32389">working paper by economists</a> at the University of California, Davis, found that increases in immigration can boost native employment."We really don't see much evidence of substitution between unauthorized immigrants and US-born people at all," <a target="_blank" href="https://www.brookings.edu/people/chloe-east/">Chloe East</a>, a fellow at the Brookings Institution, said. "That's partly because the jobs that unauthorized immigrants are willing to take are lower-paying, are more dangerous, and are less desirable for other reasons."<h3 id="dd881018-1654-4a0f-89bc-4814c3eb733e">How much a mass deportation would cost the government</h3>The Trump campaign has talked little about how mass deportations could be implemented and on what scale. While in the White House, Trump carried out about <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.migrationpolicy.org/article/biden-deportation-record">1.5 million</a> deportations and made similar promises about mass deportation but was met with various legal challenges. At a campaign rally on October 11 in Aurora, Colorado, Trump pledged to use a 1798 law to deport suspected members of cartels and gangs.To carry out what he called "the largest domestic deportation operation in American history," Trump plans to bolster ICE raids by reassigning federal agents and recruiting from local police forces and says he'll order the construction of new detention camps for people waiting for their cases to be processed, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/11/11/us/politics/trump-2025-immigration-agenda.html">The New York Times reported</a>.That would be an expensive undertaking. Using Census Bureau data, the <a target="_blank" href="https://www.americanimmigrationcouncil.org/research/mass-deportation">American Immigration Council</a> estimated it would cost the federal government over $315 billion, including hiring up to 409,000 new government employees.In addition to labor market disruptions, economists also say the country would lose tax revenue. Unauthorized immigrants paid $96.7 billion in federal, state, and local taxes — about $8,889 per person — in 2022, the <a target="_blank" href="https://itep.org/undocumented-immigrants-taxes-2024/">Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy</a> said. In 2022, unauthorized immigrants paid about $704 million in state and local taxes in Arizona alone.Supporters of deportation argue that the loss of tax revenue would be offset by savings on reduced services for immigrants. A study from the conservative <a target="_blank" href="https://manhattan.institute/article/the-lifetime-fiscal-impact-of-immigrants">Manhattan Institute</a> estimated that while older and less-educated immigrants, on average, receive more in federal benefits than they pay in taxes, higher-educated young immigrants are taxed more than they get back over their lifetime.The Trump campaign has made a similar argument, saying that welfare programs, taxpayer-subsidized health insurance, transportation costs through FEMA, and education expenses for immigrants ultimately cost taxpayers billions of dollars."The real economic crisis is the $182 billion American tax dollars spent each year to cover the costs of 20 million illegal immigrants that have flooded our communities thanks to Kamala Harris' wide-open border policies," Taylor Rogers, an RNC spokesperson, said in a statement to Business Insider."President Trump's mass deportation of illegal immigrants will not only make our communities safer but will save Americans from footing the bill for years to come," Rogers added.<h3 id="636206ff-627e-4eb3-9f7e-3ba104a3e936">Economic growth and inflation</h3>Mass deportations could have consequences for economic growth as a whole. The Trump campaign hasn't addressed overall growth and inflation concerns but has said deportations would help reduce demand in the housing market.On a more macro scale, the <a target="_blank" href="https://www.piie.com/blogs/realtime-economics/2024/mass-deportations-would-harm-us-economy">Peterson Institute</a> for International Economics said gross domestic product could fall 1.2% below baseline by 2028 if 1.3 million people are deported, while inflation could climb 0.5 percentage points above current estimates by 2026. In a more extreme scenario where 8.4 million people are deported, GDP could fall by 7.4% and inflation could climb 3.5 percentage points above baseline by the end of the decade.The American Immigration Council has a similarly negative view of the economic impact. It estimated that the US could lose between 4.2% and 6.8% in GDP if about 11 million people are deported."It would be very easy for an average American to see the impact of this policy in their daily life," Marcus Noland, the executive vice president and director of studies at the Peterson Institute, said.

Arizona is the epicenter of the debate over how Trump's mass deportation plan would hit the economy

Union Finance Minister <keyword id="19916618" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="Nirmala-Sitharaman" source="keywords">Nirmala Sitharaman</keyword> highlighted India's significant progress in electrification, <keyword id="23692737" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="water-accessibility" source="keywords">water accessibility</keyword>, and <keyword id="20879840" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="economic-empowerment" source="keywords">economic empowerment</keyword> during a fireside chat with John J Hamre, President and CEO of the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), in Washington, DC. Highlighting the progress made in <keyword id="23003732" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="rural-electrification" source="keywords">rural electrification</keyword>, <keyword id="19916494" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="sitharaman" source="keywords">Sitharaman</keyword> highlighted that every village in India now has access to electricity. She noted that in 2014, many villages across India, including those near state capitals, lacked even basic infrastructure for electrification. She said "I don't think any village in India is unelectrified today. Households have received the connections. So, if I remember the situation in 2014, there were still many villages in many parts of India, some even very close to the state capital, provincial headquarters, without even a pole to receive the electric wires. Now, all that has been overcome. Houses have got their electricity." The Finance Minister also discussed the <keyword id="19971121" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Jal-Jeevan-Mission" source="keywords">Jal Jeevan Mission</keyword>, a program initiated by Prime Minister Narendra Modi to provide tap water connections to every household. She explained, "Earlier, one tap water connection was provided to a village, from where everyone would take water to their home. But under the 'Jal Jeevan Mission,' each and every house gets a tap water connection." Sitharaman emphasized the positive impact of this initiative on health, sanitation, and convenience for millions of Indian families. Turning to the economic empowerment of <keyword id="20101496" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="municipalities" source="keywords">municipalities</keyword> and urban centers, Sitharaman noted that these local governments are receiving increased autonomy and financial support. She explained that municipalities receive a portion of taxes collected by the central government, along with additional funds based on the Finance Commission's recommendations. "Over and above, today, we are enhancing their capacities to raise resources from the market. Municipalities are a very powerful instrument of economic development and they, on their own, are raising a lot of resources," she added. Sitharaman also expressed confidence in India's economic growth and its appeal to <keyword id="20632552" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="global-investors" source="keywords">global investors</keyword>. "The policies are working, reforms are happening, and they shall continue to happen," she stated, adding that "greater liberalisation of the economy will be there and, in a way, we are accessing newer markets and speaking about the <keyword id="19948184" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Indian-economy" source="keywords">Indian economy</keyword> in more avenues and platforms that will attract more investors." With ongoing reforms and increased global engagement, Sitharaman noted, India is solidifying its position as a significant player on the world stage, expanding its economic reach and inviting foreign investment.

No village in India left without access to electricity, claims FM Nirmala Sitharaman

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Europe could take a hit to GDP in a second Trump presidency, Goldman Sachs analysts say.</li><li>They point to increased uncertainty as the scope of the timing of Trump's sweeping tariffs remains unclear.</li></ul>As the world takes in the results of the US presidential election, regions around the world are determining what a Trump presidency might mean for their economies.Europe could face a big hit to economic growth as trade tensions increase, Goldman Sachs analysts said. The analysts downgraded their growth forecasts across the region, down to 0.8% from their previous forecast of 1.1% for 2025. In 2026, the analysts said they expect growth of 1%, down from 1.1% and lower than the consensus estimate of versus 1.4%. Overall, the analysts expect the Euro area to take a 0.5% hit to real GDP, with the bulk of the downturn set to materialize next year.The analysts point to renewed trade tensions fueled by Trump's proposal for sweeping tariffs on all US imports.More significant than the actual tariff increases, though, will be the trade policy uncertainty that comes with them, the analysts say. That uncertainty will pose a bigger hit to growth than the tariffs themselves, they said. "The actual magnitude of tariff increases might matter less than the uncertainty created by threatening to impose tariffs on Europe," the analysts said in a Wednesday note, adding, "The magnitude of the tariff increase, however, is unlikely to be clear for some time, and so we expect a pronounced further increase in TPU in the baseline scenario."The firm's trade policy uncertainty indicator for Europe has already risen in recent weeks as markets increasingly priced in odds of a Trump win.The analysts acknowledged, though, that while Trump's 10% across-the-board tariff is a clear risk, they expect his administration to initiate a more moderate set of duties on European countries.Those tariffs will likely target auto exports, which are worth $80 billion, or 0.9% of EU exports, the analysts said. The duties will have large impacts to GDP in Germany, Sweden, and Switzerland in particular, they added. During his campaign, Trump proposed raising tariffs on imports from all countries to <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-tariff-plan-inflation-policy-impact-trade-war-china-rates-2024-5">at least 10%</a>, and said imports from China would be <a target="_blank" rel="" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/donald-trump-impose-tariffs-china-if-elected-2024-2?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">subject to even steeper 60% duties</a>.The analysts add that a Trump presidency will prompt European countries to up their defense spending to account for a <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/how-trump-could-handle-ukraine-war-if-reelected-scenarios-2024-10">potential decrease</a> in US military support to Ukraine. That wartime support will cost the EU another 0.5% of GDP every year, the analysts say.The increased spending won't result in a growth boost, either, they say."Any resulting growth boost, however, will likely be limited by modest military spending multipliers in Europe, upward pressure on long-term yields from higher deficits and negative confidence effects from elevated geo-political risk," the analysts said.European officials have long warned of huge growth impacts from a second Trump presidency.Last month, ECB member Joachim Nagel <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-win-economic-growth-inflation-risks-europe-ecb-germany-2024-10">warned</a> a Trump win could hammer growth and send inflation soaring in Europe, and back in January, ECB president Christine Lagarde said a Trump win is "clearly a threat" to Europe, pointing to his tariff plans, commitment to NATO, and climate change policies.

Trump's presidency will hurt Europe's economic growth amid renewed trade tensions, Goldman Sachs says

<ul class="summary-list"><li>This post originally appeared in the Insider Today newsletter.</li></ul>Welcome back! Remember the chicken sandwich wars between fast-food restaurants a few years ago? Chicken tenders are the new battleground, and casual dining chains and chicken brands are getting in on <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/chicken-tenders-war-kfc-chilis-perdue-gearing-up-2024-10">what's viewed as a big business opportunity</a>.In today's big story, the first of our five-part refresher series on the potential impact Donald Trump and Kamala Harris presidencies could have on US consumers. First up: <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/market-impact-presidential-election-scenarios-trump-harris-stocks-bonds-crypto-2024-10">your investments</a>.What's on deck:<ul><li>Markets: JPMorgan is adding junior bankers <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/jpmorgan-investment-bank-boosting-junior-banker-hiring-analysts-associates-2024-10">in preparation for an M&amp;A frenzy</a>.</li><li>Tech: Apple has <a target="_blank" rel="noopener" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/apple-announcing-major-mac-updates-ai-rollout-earnings-week-2024-10">a lot on the line this week</a>.</li><li>Business: Two giant newspapers trying to avoid the political fray <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/washington-post-donald-trump-kamala-harris-endorsement-bezos-why-matters-2024-10">created an even bigger mess</a>.</li></ul>But first, how's my portfolio looking?If this was forwarded to you, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/subscription/newsletter/insider-today">sign up here.</a><h3 id="7fa5f018-5b05-4a37-a8dc-d3f89138bcb3">The big story</h3><h2 id="5fd547b9-ec52-41fc-8e08-4f4b27dd8097">Voting for stocks</h2><div type="image" title="Harris and Trump." height="1200" width="2400" msid="114696604" hostid="261" sizebytes="311624"></div>They say the stakes have never been higher for this year's election. The same could be said for the impact on your investment portfolio.Business Insider's Matthew Fox detailed how Wall Street sees former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/market-impact-presidential-election-scenarios-trump-harris-stocks-bonds-crypto-2024-10">affecting the investment landscape</a> if they win the White House.The story is part of a five-part refresher series BI compiled for election season's final days. The goal is to help readers understand the impact both candidates could have on US consumers. Each day, we'll have a new story unpacking a different area.The economy is always a key focus for voters, and the strength or weakness of financial markets significantly influences how people view it.One of the biggest areas where Harris and Trump differ is their proposed tax policies, which are believed to have big impacts on stocks.According to Bank of America, Trump's plan to cut the corporate tax rate to 15% from 21% will boost earnings by 4%. On the other hand, Harris is looking to raise that tax rate to 28%, which would lead to a 5% earnings hit, according to the bank.Trump's universal tariffs proposal is also viewed as having a big impact. His supporters say it's a pro-business move that will boost corporate growth and deals. Critics say it'll raise inflation, which will drag stocks down.<div type="image" title="gold bar hand holding 4x3" height="1500" width="2000" msid="114696606" hostid="261" sizebytes="409846"></div>Sometimes, the impact isn't as straightforward as it might seem.Trump's pro-drilling stance might be viewed as a win for the energy sector. But that could lead to oversupply and lower prices, BNY Wealth said. And under Trump's previous presidential campaign, energy was the worst-performing sector.While Democrats largely favor wind and solar energy, the clean-energy sector has tanked under President Joe Biden after skyrocketing during Trump's tenure. (It has outperformed more recently as Harris made gains in election polls.)Others believe <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-election-impact-outlook-harris-trump-energy-tesla-biden-2024-10">it might not matter to the markets who wins</a>. Artificial intelligence remains the market's major force, driving the most volatility for stocks.Another corner of the market, albeit much less cutting-edge, is incredibly hot and positioned to keep thriving: gold. The metal hit all-time highs last week and <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/gold-price-record-high-became-etf-interest-rates-trump-costco-2024-10">has outperformed stock prices since October 2022</a>.The precious metal has benefited recently from a trifecta of bullish forces: the Fed's rate cut, rising geopolitical tensions, and the prospect of an inflationary Trump presidency. But it's a good bet no matter who wins the election, according to Interactive Brokers chief strategist Steve Sosnick.<h3 id="77f31a4c-8462-4e3d-a71f-838cb79493fb">News brief</h3><h2 id="1fcd294b-3f53-425f-9f20-4093e8623b59">Top headlines</h2><ul><li>He gave up everything to fight for Ukraine. <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/andrew-webber-american-lawyer-left-us-fight-ukraine-war-russia-2024-10">His family is still trying to figure out why</a>.</li><li>VMware customers are seeing massive late fees <a target="_blank" rel="noopener" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/vmware-customers-price-hike-late-fees-broadcom-acquisition-2024-10">since Broadcom acquired the company</a>.</li><li>Reddit's CEO sees an <a target="_blank" rel="noopener" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/reddit-google-search-ceo-steve-huffman-2024-10">opening against Google on search</a>.</li><li>Tiger Grandcubs on AI: How investors Dan Sundheim and Mala Gaonkar are <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/tiger-grandcubs-dan-sundheim-mala-gaonkar-ai-investing-opportunities-2024-10">thinking about investing in the space</a>.</li><li>Tesla is offering a Cybertruck accessory <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/tesla-offers-cybertruck-accessory-lightbar-cannot-fully-install-elon-musk-2024-10">that it can't fully install</a>.</li></ul><h2 id="8120060b-ae66-48dc-b149-f0489a30ffa2">3 things in markets</h2><div type="image" title="A Bald Eagle with talons extended landing on a upward trending graph line surrounded by falling money" height="1500" width="2000" msid="114696609" hostid="261" sizebytes="161920"></div><ol><li>The US economy avoided a crash, but it's not out of the woods. Economist Neil Dutta said a <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/america-avoided-recession-layoffs-job-market-gdp-stock-market-2024-10">weakening job market remains a risk for the economy</a>. He pointed to the growing number of consumers viewing jobs as being hard to come by versus those that think they are plentiful, and drops in hiring and quit rates.</li><li>JPMorgan: Young bankers wanted. The largest US bank is <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/jpmorgan-investment-bank-boosting-junior-banker-hiring-analysts-associates-2024-10">looking to add investment banking analysts and associates</a> despite the fourth quarter typically being slow for bank hiring. The recruitment comes ahead of the expected resurgence of M&amp;A activity.</li><li>Wall Street has been tasked with determining OpenAI's worth. Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley are reportedly working on establishing a valuation for the startup as part of its potential shift to a for-profit company. Here's what that <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/openai-valuation-process-goldman-sachs-morgan-stanley-fees-2024-10">lengthy, complex process would look like</a>.</li></ol><h2 id="f4b54806-7f81-450c-ba32-92560d4fae9b">3 things in tech</h2><div type="image" title="A twitter bird with worms in its mouth" height="1000" width="2000" msid="114696605" hostid="261" sizebytes="24240"></div><ol><li>X still marks the spot. Some Twitter users mourned the social media platform after Elon Musk acquired it and renamed it X. In response, various challengers have attempted to rival X, but <a target="_blank" href="https://businessinsider.com/twitter-x-elon-musk-startup-competitition-town-square-election-2024-10">none have been able to knock the platform off its throne</a>.</li><li>It's a big week for Apple. In addition to reporting earnings on Thursday, Apple is expected to <a target="_blank" rel="noopener" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/apple-announcing-major-mac-updates-ai-rollout-earnings-week-2024-10">introduce software and hardware updates</a> to its tech lineup this week. Its long-awaited Apple Intelligence is scheduled to launch with iOS 18.1. Plus, a marketing exec teased something new for Macs.</li><li>VCs are breaking a long-standing taboo. Venture firms have long adhered to an unspoken rule: Don't invest in competitors. However, that norm is disappearing as <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/vcs-are-hedging-their-bets-backing-competing-llms-2024-10">investors pour billions into competing LLMs like Anthropic and OpenAI</a>.</li></ol><h2 id="9260fa45-d397-4b3c-b4f8-4bb193976216">3 things in business</h2><div type="image" title="A man holding a ladder and walking away from others climbing ladders" height="1803" width="3606" msid="114696603" hostid="261" sizebytes="551808"></div><ol><li>The end of American careerism. Rather than climb the corporate ladder, workers are now choosing to descend it. A promotion was once the pinnacle of the American dream, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/careerist-corporate-ladder-decline-promotions-work-ethic-american-dream-2024-10">but many professionals are turning them down</a> — and no longer deem the trade-offs worth it.</li><li>Elon Musk is going "founder mode" for MAGA. The Tesla CEO's all-in intensity to get Donald Trump elected reflects how he runs his companies. He's spent just under $119 million on his pro-Trump PAC and shows no signs of slowing down — though <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/elon-musk-donald-trump-support-reflects-business-approach-tesla-2024-10">it's unclear whether it will make a difference</a> at the ballot.</li><li>Sometimes, saying nothing is still saying something. The Washington Post and the LA Times just stepped into <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/washington-post-donald-trump-kamala-harris-endorsement-bezos-why-matters-2024-10/">a bigger political mess than the one they tried to avoid</a>. The billionaire-owned papers said they wouldn't endorse a political candidate in the final days before the election. Some, including those within the newsrooms, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/washington-post-staff-revolt-presidential-endorsement-2024-10">interpreted the moves as pandering to Donald Trump</a>. Michele Norris, a columnist at The Washington Post, is <a target="_blank" rel="noopener" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/washington-post-columist-michele-norris-resigns-endorsement-kamala-harris-2024-10">the latest staffer to resign</a> over the newspaper's decision.</li></ol><h2 id="9f5d80ac-3466-429f-a50a-2ffbb70c65ff">What's happening today</h2><ul><li>Ford Motors and other companies report earnings.</li><li>The MLB World Series continues with the LA Dodgers at New York Yankees.</li><li>Forbes publishes its "Top Creators" list of most powerful influencers.</li></ul>The Insider Today team: Dan DeFrancesco, deputy editor and anchor, in New York. Jordan Parker Erb, editor, in New York. Hallam Bullock, senior editor, in London. Grace Lett, editor, in Chicago. Amanda Yen, fellow, in New York. Milan Sehmbi, fellow, in London.

You Searched For "impact of Trump presidency on Indian economy" and got 12 results

How a Trump or Harris presidency could impact your investments

Matthew Fox

FDIs may shift to US under Trump 2.0 but it is unlikely to severely impact FDIs inflow to India, says SBI Report

Ira Alok Puranik

US Fed cuts interest rates by 25 bps, Powell notes Trump's victory to have no impact on policy decisions

Ira Alok Puranik

What can you expect from the US Fed meeting later this week? Here's all you need to know

Ira Alok Puranik

Rupee hits record low of 84.23 against US dollar amidst US elections 2024

BI India Bureau

What the crypto market actually wants from a Trump presidency

Filip De Mott

Not only does electing “criminal” politicians often lead to an increase in crime in India, it can also be terrible for the economy: study

Ankush Banerjee

One market's reaction to Trump's win shows the economy might not get the immediate relief many hope for

Matthew Fox

Arizona is the epicenter of the debate over how Trump's mass deportation plan would hit the economy

Noah Sheidlower

No village in India left without access to electricity, claims FM Nirmala Sitharaman

ANI

Trump's presidency will hurt Europe's economic growth amid renewed trade tensions, Goldman Sachs says

Kelly Cloonan

Wall Street braces for a Trump or Harris presidency. Here's what that means for your portfolio.

Dan DeFrancesco

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