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India could see a shift in foreign direct investment (FDI) trends in the second term of Donald Trump (Trump 2.0) as President of the United States, says a research report by the State Bank of India. The report highlighted that under his first term, Trump 1.0, the Trump administration made sweeping regulatory changes aimed at attracting investments back to the U.S., which impacted FDI inflows globally, including India. It added that if similar policies are reintroduced in Trump 2.0 also, it could create challenges for emerging markets like India, which rely on FDI as a significant driver of economic growth. Notably, a recent Kotak report highlighted that a complete Republican control over all arms of the US government would mean increased US earnings via corporate tax cuts, higher tariffs on imports into the US and greater US fiscal deficits. The first two could spell doom for emerging markets like India and China, since foreign investors will make a beeline for investing more money in the US markets, which will come at the cost of intense selloff in emerging markets. However, higher fiscal deficits will eventually lead to the dollar weakening after the initial euphoria dies down. "India may see shifts in foreign direct investments (FDIs) during Trump 2.0. The Trump 1.0 administration saw significant regulatory changes aimed at attracting investments back to the US," the SBI report stated. However, given that India has been gradually diversifying its sources of FDI (foreign direct investments), this trend could serve as a buffer against any potential decline. Moreover, domestic institutional investors have been stepping up big time, maintaining some balance to the massive exodus of FIIs over the past month. So far in November 2024, FIIs have withdrawn Rs 19,849 crores from the cash segment in Indian markets, while DIIs have poured in Rs 14,014.18 crores as of November 10th, 2024. "India is no longer dependent on the traditional sources of FDI inflows... unlike the recent past, FDI is now coming in many new sectors," noted the SBI report. Unlike a decade ago, when most FDI inflows came from a limited number of traditional sectors, India is now attracting investment in a wide array of industries, including renewable energy, sea transport, medical devices, and surgical appliances. Data suggests over the last 24 years, i.e., between April 2000 and June 2024, FDIs have poured in $1,013.4 billion in the Indian economy. Out of this, 67%, i.e., $689.88 billion, has come in just the last 10 years. The report added there are up to 12 emerging sectors showing strong FDI interest, which could help offset any loss of inflows in conventional sectors if there is a shift in global investment patterns under another Trump administration. In the last financial year, the top 5 sectors that have received the highest quantum of FDI inflow include the services sector (finance, banking, insurance, and business) which makes up about 16% of the inflows. This is followed computer software &amp; hardware, which constitute around 15% of total FDI flows. Trading and telecommunications follows with a share of 6% each, and Automobile Industry comes next with a 5% share. In the short term, the potential for increased U.S. tariffs, more restrictive H-1B visa policies, and a stronger dollar could bring some volatility to India's trade and investment landscape. However, in the long term, these challenges might also encourage India to expand its manufacturing capabilities, diversify export markets, and focus on becoming economically more self-reliant. Notably, India has maintained a merchandise trade surplus with the U.S. despite tariffs imposed during Trump's first term. This indicates that Indian exports have remained resilient, and there is potential to strengthen this trade relationship further by capitalizing on emerging sectors and reducing dependency on traditional industries. Suman Chowdhury, Executive Director &amp; Chief Economist, Acuité Ratings &amp; Research Limited cautions that in the medium to long term, the trade relationship with the US may see a structural improvement. "Higher tariff and trade restrictions in the US with China should translate into better opportunities for exports of manufactured goods from India", he adds.

FDIs may shift to US under Trump 2.0 but it is unlikely to severely impact FDIs inflow to India, says SBI Report

<ul class="summary-list"><li>The tariffs Donald Trump proposed while campaigning could help create US semiconductor jobs.</li><li>Tariffs could also help US chipmakers compete with companies abroad that sell chips at lower prices.</li></ul>If president-elect Donald Trump follows through on his <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/companies-raising-prices-trump-tariffs-inflation-goods-getting-more-expensive-2024-11">campaign promise to impose tariffs</a>, the domestic semiconductor industry could see job gains.Industry experts told Business Insider that tariffs on foreign-made chips could help level the playing field for US chipmakers, which are <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/intel-chip-troubles-problem-us-economy-domestic-production-chips-act-2024-11">facing fierce competition</a> from their counterparts abroad. The tariffs could also encourage US businesses to source more chips domestically and help persuade chipmaking giants, like the Taiwan-based <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/tsmc-making-apple-iphone-chips-helps-us-semiconductor-bet-2024-10">TSMC</a>, to keep building factories in the US. These developments could aid job growth in the US semiconductor industry, though experts disagreed on how much.Trump's proposed tariff policies include a 60% tariff on goods coming from China and up to a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/companies-raising-prices-trump-tariffs-inflation-goods-getting-more-expensive-2024-11">20% tariff</a> on all imports, including chips. US companies source many of the chips needed to power items like iPhones and washing machines from abroad: The US share of overall chip production fell from <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/why-us-doesnt-make-chips-semiconductor-shortage-2021-4">37%</a> of the world's supply in 1990 to roughly <a target="_blank" href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2024/08/09/fact-sheet-two-years-after-the-chips-and-science-act-biden-%E2%81%A0harris-administration-celebrates-historic-achievements-in-bringing-semiconductor-supply-chains-home-creating-jobs-supporting-inn/#:~:text=As%20a%20result%20of%20these,Vice%20President%20Harris%20took%20office.">10%</a> today.In an <a target="_blank" href="https://open.spotify.com/episode/0e9ynAH6hmZIIeOx0SaGQu">interview</a> with podcaster Joe Rogan in October, Trump criticized the Biden administration's <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/intel-chips-act-funding-all-hands-meeting-2024-11">CHIPS Act</a> legislation, which included $52.7 billion in tax breaks and subsidies for companies in the semiconductor industry. He said that the federal government should have implemented tariffs instead to motivate global chipmakers to build more factories in the US, which would then create jobs."You didn't have to put up $0.10," Trump said. "You could have done it with tariffs. You tariff it so high that they will come and build their chip companies for nothing."To be sure, the impacts of a tariff policy on chips could be mixed. Jeff Koch, an analyst at the semiconductor research and consulting firm SemiAnalysis, told BI that tariffs could lead to higher prices for goods containing chips, such as cars, electronics, and appliances. He added that US chipmakers could likely benefit from these tariffs because it could help them compete with companies abroad that sell chips at lower prices.The Trump campaign did not respond to a request for comment.<h2 id="dc733634-a51d-47cf-a7b9-405bdfac9e61">Tariffs on chips could boost construction and manufacturing jobs</h2>Patrick Moorhead, founder, CEO, and chief analyst at the research and advisory firm Moor Insights and Strategy, told BI that tariffs could increase the number of US chip manufacturing jobs. He added that he thinks the policy could incentivize chipmakers like TSMC and Samsung, which is based in South Korea, to boost manufacturing in the US."The cost of manufacturing in the US for Samsung and TSMC would be lower than a 30% to 40% tariff on <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/quartz-mine-computer-chips-hurricane-helene-spruce-pine-semiconductor-2024-9">wafers</a> and <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-ai-chip-production-manufacturing-nvidia-labor-china-taiwan-korea-2024-4">packaging</a>," he said, referring to key components of the chipmaking process.Jeff Ferry, chief economist at the Coalition for a Prosperous America, a nonprofit that advocates for increasing domestic manufacturing, estimated that tariffs could create roughly 100,000 jobs at US chip manufacturers and their suppliers.He said this estimate was partly based on a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.semiconductors.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/2021-Jobs-Report_2-pager.pdf">report</a> published in 2021 by the Semiconductor Industry Association — a trade association and lobbying group — that said a $50 billion investment would help create an estimated 10 additional chip factories in the US. That could add about 42,000 direct jobs at the companies building these factories and 101,500 indirect jobs at chipmakers' suppliers, per the report.Ferry said he thought chip tariffs could lead to the creation of roughly 10 additional factories, which led him to come to the 100,000 jobs estimate. In August, the White House <a target="_blank" href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2024/08/09/fact-sheet-two-years-after-the-chips-and-science-act-biden-%E2%81%A0harris-administration-celebrates-historic-achievements-in-bringing-semiconductor-supply-chains-home-creating-jobs-supporting-inn/">said</a> that investments supported by CHIPS Act funding would help create 115,000 construction and manufacturing jobs."Tariffs on chips, particularly legacy chips like those used in autos, could successfully shift production back to the US," Ferry said.Samsung did not respond to a request for comment. Intel and TSMC did not respond to a question about what impact a Trump administration tariff policy would have on each company's job creation plans in the US.An Intel spokesperson pointed to a <a target="_blank" href="https://www.intel.com/content/www/us/en/newsroom/news/us-chips-act-intel-direct-funding.html#gs.i5ie0q">press release</a> from March, which said the company's $100 billion investment in the US over the next five years is expected to create more than 10,000 jobs at Intel and nearly 20,000 construction jobs. TSMC pointed to a <a target="_blank" href="https://pr.tsmc.com/english/news/3122">press release</a> from April, that said TSMC's investments in three Arizona chip factories are expected to create roughly 6,000 company jobs, more than 20,000 construction jobs, and tens of thousands of indirect supplier and consumer jobs.Stephen Ezell, the vice president for global innovation policy at the Information Technology and Innovation Foundation, said that the effectiveness of a tariff on chips could be limited, in part because many chips aren't imported <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.usitc.gov/publications/332/executive_briefings/ebot_cellular_phones_and_covid.pdf">directly</a> into the US: He said they often come embedded into finished products like <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.usitc.gov/publications/332/executive_briefings/ebot_cellular_phones_and_covid.pdf">smartphones</a> or computers.For example, he said that in most cases, chips that TSMC manufactures in Taiwan for Apple are sent to <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2022/12/tsmc-apple-memory-chip-production-us-china-taiwan-relations/672593/">China</a> or <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.cnbc.com/2024/04/10/apple-made-14-billion-worth-of-iphones-in-india-in-shift-from-china.html">India</a> to be incorporated into a product like an iPhone. Therefore, the chip wouldn't be subject to a US tariff but the iPhone would.When deciding whether to build a chip factory in the US, Ezell said several factors — including wage rates, the labor talent pool, and tax policy — would be bigger considerations for companies than the country's tariff policy. But if tariffs proved to be the deciding factor in a company's decision to invest in the US, then Ezell said the policy could arguably be credited with boosting employment in the semiconductor industry."If a company did decide not to launch a factory elsewhere and instead launch it in the United States, then yes, this dynamic could lead companies to hire more," he said.Do you work in the US semiconductor industry? Reach out to this reporter at <a target="_blank" href="mailto:jzinkula@businessinsider.com">jzinkula@businessinsider.com</a>

Trump's trade restrictions could be good for American semiconductor jobs

<ul class="summary-list"><li>The relationship between Trump and Putin has long been a source of controversy.</li><li>Analysts say Trump could broker a Ukraine peace deal on terms favorable to Russia.</li></ul>With only a month to go before the presidential election, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-touts-russia-army-history-justify-deal-putin-over-ukraine-2024-9">Donald Trump's relationship with Russian President Vladimir Putin</a> has once again come under the spotlight.In a forthcoming book, journalist <a target="_blank" rel="" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/bob-woodward-trump-unparalleled-danger-democracy-president-2022-10">Bob Woodward</a> says that the former president and Putin have a closer friendship than previously known.According to <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-putin-woodward-book-secret-covid-tests-seven-calls-2024-10">excerpts</a> published by CNN and the Washington Post on Tuesday, Trump sent Putin COVID testing devices in early 2020 for his personal use.The book also says that Trump may have had up to seven phone calls with Putin since leaving office in 2021, citing a Trump aide.The Trump campaign denied the report, with spokesman Steve Cheung claiming it is "the work of a truly demented and deranged man who suffers from a debilitating case of Trump Derangement Syndrome."The Kremlin on Tuesday<a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/donald-trump-vladimir-putin-covid-testing-devices-phone-calls-kremlin-rcna174632"> said </a>that Russia received the COVID-19 testing kits, though added that Russia sent kits to the US in return. It denied <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/kremlin-says-trump-sent-putin-covid-tests-pandemic-denies-calls-2024-10">the seven calls that Woodward said Trump had with Putin.</a>While speculation and criticism about Trump's relationship with Russia's autocratic leader are nothing new, they are taking on a new significance amid the possibility of a second Trump presidency.<h2 id="ca1622e9-b987-46c8-878b-d263ec452e14">The Trump-Putin relationship</h2>Only weeks before Trump took office after his presidential victory, his administration-in-waiting was rocked by the publication of a dossier prepared by a former British spy.The report said that the Kremlin had secured compromising information that it could use to blackmail Trump.Trump's legal team said the dossier contained inaccurate information and that it breached his data protection rights.A subsequent inquiry by Special Counsel Robert Mueller found no evidence of coordination between Putin and the Trump campaign.<div type="image" title="Robert Mueller, who headed the FBI for 12 years, speaks into a microphone." height="2316" width="3500" msid="114090479" hostid="261" sizebytes="235904"></div>Throughout his presidency, however, Trump appeared friendly toward Putin and was reluctant to criticize Russia over reports of interference in the 2016 US presidential election.Trump has continued to praise Putin for being <a target="_blank" rel="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-praised-smart-putin-us-stupid-country-2022-2">"smart" </a>and<a target="_blank" rel="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/donald-trump-vladimir-putin-ukraine-invasion-justification-genius-savvy-2022-2"> "genius"</a> after he began his unprovoked invasion of Ukraine."I'd say that's pretty smart. He's taking over a country – really a vast, vast location, a great piece of land with a lot of people, and just walking right in," Trump <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://x.com/american_bridge/status/1496682759208775683?s=21">said</a> in 2022.<h2 id="8940f3b3-81cf-4fcd-b657-4036ec84ba83">A Ukraine deal</h2>The US, under President Joe Biden, has provided billions in aid to Ukraine to battle the invasion launched by Russia in 2022, which the president has characterized<a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/biden-normandy-d-day-ukraine-unchecked-tyranny/"> as a fight between</a> the forces of democracy and tyranny.Yet Trump has questioned why the US is helping Ukraine defend itself and had urged Republicans in Congress to block a Ukraine aid bill earlier this year, resulting in Ukraine suffering ammunition shortages.He has claimed that he'd be able to swiftly negotiate a peace deal between Ukraine and Russia if he became president.And though he's offered few details on how, a peace plan suggested by his running mate, JD Vance, on a podcast <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://thehill.com/opinion/international/4884798-the-trump-vance-plan-for-ukraine-is-insane/">in September indicates </a>that it'd involve Ukraine ceding the territory Russia holds and pledging neutrality.Trump could hypothetically compel Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to agree to the deal or face US aid being cut off.Critics say it's a deal that would likely delight the Kremlin and infuriate US allies in Europe and beyond. It could also come back to haunt the US.<h2 id="8ad46fa4-95d4-47d5-919b-551c0fc2121b">There could be catastrophic consequences</h2>Philip Ingram, a former UK military intelligence officer, told Business Insider that a Trump deal with Putin that involved ceding Ukrainian territory could have catastrophic effects."I think if Trump forces Zelenskyy into a peace deal where he has to give up any territory, then that will stimulate the start of World War Three, and it will happen within a relatively short period of time," he said."And the economic impact that that will have across the globe will be enormous."The Ukraine war has already roiled markets for food, oil, gas, and other products, and wider conflict could have an even more devastating impact.Economist Kenneth Rogoff in an article for <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/fandd/issues/2022/03/the-long-lasting-economic-shock-of-war">The International Monetary Fund</a> warned that the war is worsening "rising inflation, extreme poverty, increasing food insecurity, deglobalization, and worsening environmental degradation."William Pomerantz, an analyst at the Wilson Center in Washington, DC, told BI a deal would hugely damage US alliances."Trump believes that he can end the war in Ukraine in a week, but that would require conceding to all of Putin's demands," he said."That would essentially end our alliance with Europe and our international credibility."<h2 id="62871981-d67f-4884-a229-94adfdbc3ed3">Empowering China</h2>Some Republicans, including Vance, say the US needs to shift its stance away from helping Ukraine battle Russian aggression toward the more urgent threat they say China poses.Yet analysts <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/vance-trump-wants-us-focus-china-russia-one-big-problem-2024-7">told BI in July </a>that China's threat is closely linked to Russia's, with Putin and fellow Chinese autocrat Xi Jinping having formed a pact to weaken US global dominance.A Russian victory in Ukraine would likely embolden Xi to launch an invasion of US ally Taiwan, said Ingram.<div type="image" title="Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping talking." height="3452" width="5402" msid="114090480" hostid="261" sizebytes="395676"></div>If Xi believes that the West has "given in" regarding Russia's invasion of Ukraine despite the money and diplomatic effort spent trying to defeat Russia, "we would very quickly see his invasion of Taiwan," he said.European leaders have also issued stark warnings that Russia, emboldened by its territorial victory in Ukraine, could seek to attack a NATO state in as little as five years.Spiralling conflicts in Asia, Europe, and the Middle East would have a devastating economic impact.<a target="_blank" rel="" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/stocks/jpm-stock">JPMorgan</a> CEO Jamie Dimon warned last month that investors are overlooking geopolitcal tensions as key risk that could significantly weaken the global economy."Geopolitics is getting worse, they are not getting better. There is chance for accidents in energy supply. God knows if other countries get involved. You have a lot of war taking place right now," Dimon told <a target="_blank" rel=" nofollow" class="" href="https://www.cnbc.com/2024/09/24/jpmorgan-ceo-jamie-dimon-warns-geopolitics-is-getting-worse.html">CNBC-TV18</a> during a visit to India.Dimon said that if geopolitical tensions elevate to instability and conflict, it will drag down the stock market in a way that pales in comparison to prior market crashes.<h2 id="cccccb09-431b-470e-9b1b-e688d2ce7308">Trump's words and actions differ</h2>Ingram pointed out that there has in the past been a gap between Trump's words and actions, and questioned whether Trump would be willing to risk the economic blowback on the US of canceling Ukraine aid, with arms manufacturing firms in swing states such as Pennsylvania massively boosted by the Congressional aid bills."What we're hearing from him, from a political perspective, but what he'd actually practically do will be different," said Ingram.It is also unclear Trump would continue to impose sanctions on Russia if he becomes president."It's much harder to predict him on that stuff," William Reinsch, a senior advisor at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, told <a target="_blank" href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/tough-u-s-sanctions-packages-are-here-to-staywhether-its-harris-or-trump-11f884ba">The Wall Street Journal</a> in August. "I would say [he is] sort of inconstant. He tends to veer from one thing to another.'"Either way, Trump will have to deal with economic problems at home, including record debt levels and surging interest payments.Trump's economic plans are estimated to raise the federal debt level by double the figure expected if Kamala Harris is elected, according to a <a target="_blank" href="https://www.crfb.org/sites/default/files/media/documents/CRFB_US%20Budget%20Watch%202024_The%20Fiscal%20Impact%20of%20the%20Harris%20and%20Trump%20Campaign%20Plans_Final_10062024.pdf">report</a> out this week.Harris would add $3.5 trillion to the projected fiscal debt through 2035, while Trump would add $7.5 trillion, the <a target="_blank" href="https://www.crfb.org/papers/fiscal-impact-harris-and-trump-campaign-plans">Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget</a> analysis said."Our large and growing national debt threatens to slow economic growth, boost interest rates and payments, weaken national security, constrain policy choices, and increase the risk of an eventual fiscal crisis," it added.If elected for a second term, Trump has pledged to purge the US government of those he deems disloyal to his agenda if reelected and could surround himself with loyalists rather than career officials seeking to check his more impulsive decisions.Pomeranz said that Trump's policies in a second term would more openly reflect his admiration for Russia's leader, regardless of the US' economic plight."Putin is the autocratic leader that Trump most admires," he said. "Trump will present any end of hostilities [in Ukraine] as a personal victory, and Putin will validate this."

Trump's close relationship with Putin could come back to haunt the US

<ul class="summary-list"><li><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/apple">Apple</a> will face hefty costs if Donald Trump sticks to his blanket tariffs pledge.</li><li>Trump previously said he's considering levies of more than 60% on Chinese products.</li></ul>Apple got a break the last time <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/trump-media-truth-social-djt-tesla-stock-crypto-election-energy-2024-11?_gl=1*5t8f8c*_ga*NDk0OTkwMDg3LjE2NTQ3MDM2MDA.*_ga_E21CV80ZCZ*MTczMDk5OTYwMS4xODkwLjEuMTczMTAwMzA1MS41NS4wLjA.">Donald Trump</a> was in office, but the president-elect's proposed tariffs could cost the tech giant a lot during his second term.CEO Tim Cook joined the chorus of <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/business-leaders-react-donald-trump-winning-election-silicon-valley-2024-11">tech leaders congratulating Trump</a> on winning the 2024 presidential election with an X post on Wednesday. Maintaining a good relationship with the president-elect could be crucial for Apple, which secured government exemptions from costly tariffs during Trump's first term. It's unclear whether the company will be afforded the same benefits this time.If Trump follows through with his pledge to impose 10% <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/donald-trump-new-tariffs-election-2024-trade-war-joe-biden-2023-8">blanket tariffs</a> on all imported goods and 60% tariffs on Chinese goods, finance experts said the effect on Apple would be negative."If you think your iPhone is expensive now, it's probably going to get a whole heck of a lot more expensive if the company that makes it has to deal with a 60% tariff on whatever they import from China," LendingTree economist Jacob Channel told Business Insider.Although Apple has reportedly explored India as an alternative base for <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/apple-dependent-on-china-economy-manufacturing-problem-2023-9">iPhone production in Asia</a>, many of its products are still made in China. It also makes and sells its Mac computers in the country.Greater China is a key region for <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/apple-stock-earnings-report-call-live-updates-2024-10">Apple's revenue</a> — making up about 17% of its total sales in fiscal 2024. Recently, it has struggled in the area as local smartphone brands compete with the iPhone. The region still brought in $66.9 billion in 2024 sales — though that was down about 7.7% from the previous year.If China decides to retaliate against the Trump administration's proposed tariffs, it could also hurt Apple in the region."The new administration's trade policy can likely have a material impact on Apple, especially with its critical China dependencies both on the revenue and supply side," Dipanjan Chatterjee, a Forrester analyst, said.Apple didn't immediately respond to a request for comment on the outcome of the election from BI.A Trump win isn't all bad news for Apple. The tech company is currently <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/apple-antitrust-lawsuit-justice-department-2024-3">facing a US antitrust lawsuit</a> that accuses it of maintaining an illegal monopoly on smartphones.Both Channel and Chatterjee told BI that the Trump administration will likely ease up on the antitrust pressure Big Tech companies, like Apple and Google, are dealing with."There probably will be, generally speaking, less scrutiny on those kinds of business practices," LendingTree's Channel said.Since Trump has yet to take office, Chatterjee said the world will have to "wait and see" what policies become official.

Apple's Tim Cook is going to have a headache on his hands if Donald Trump follows through on tariffs this time around

<ul><li>Global air freight declined for the eighth month in a row signalling a sharp slowdown in trade.</li><li>Total freight tonne kilometres decreased 4.8% in June 2018 compared to the same time last year.</li><li>The sharpest fall was seen in the Middle East and Asia-Pacific, which together make up nearly half of the world's share of air freight.</li></ul> This is the surest sign of a deepening slowdown in world economy. Global air freight declined for the eighth month in a row signalling a sharp slowdown in trade. Total freight tonne kilometres, the measure of a flight's cargo carrying capacity, decreased 4.8% in June 2018 compared to the same time last year, according to latest data from the International Air Transport Association. This is the eighth straight monthly decline in global air freight. Global trade has been hit badly over the past year as a tariff war between the United States and China escalated and hurt business sentiment. The Asia-Pacific region, mostly made up of countries dependent on exports, were the worst hit (down 5.4%) after the Middle East, which exports oil. Together, these two regions make up nearly half of the global trade. While Donald Trump's trade war with China did have an impact on trade in the Asia-Pacific region, it was not the only reason. Air freight traffic within Asia has decreased more than 10% over the past year, IATA revealed. Africa, the bright spot African carriers were the only ones to report growth in June 2019, with an increase in demand of 3.8% compared to the same period a year earlier. This makes Africa the strongest performer for the fourth consecutive month. The traffic between Africa and Asia was up 12% year-on-year in June. All eyes on Donald Trump There may be more pain store because there is no sign of thaw between the Trump administration in the US and the Chinese government under Xi Jinping. President Trump announced <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/trump-china-trade-war-us-imposing-more-tariffs-in-september-2019-8-1028409537?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest" target="_blank">a new set of tariffs on August 1</a>, hitting $300 billion worth of Chinese products with 10% tariffs starting September 1. About $250 billion of Chinese imports already fall under a 25% tariff. In its latest response, China allowed its currency Yuan to hit a 11-year low to make its exports more competitive in the face of the American onslaught. This was also a signal from Beijing that China is not ready to back down yet. "Indeed, if tariffs go up to 25% for all imports from China for 4-6 months, it will heighten the risks to the cycle and the global economy could enter a recession in three quarters' time," Morgan Stanley's Chetan Ahya said. Three quarters from now would be early 2020, when the worst of the recession may strike the world. SEE ALSO: <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/next-global-recession-may-be-just-two-years-awayand-india-should-be-worried/articleshow/67535452.cms" data-type="tilCustomLink" target="_blank">Next global recession may be just two years away—and India should be worried</a>

The latest air freight data is a clear sign that global economy is descending fast

<ul><li>Global stock markets, including India, have witnessed a bout of volatility in the run-up to US elections. Most analysts believe that short-term volatility is likely to remain, irrespective of the verdict, but a Biden victory may be favourable for India in the long run.</li><li>Abhimanyu Sofat, head of research at IIFL Securities, believes that Trump’s victory will simply lead to the continuation of the current stalemate in global trade.</li><li>Biden’s win may play out well for the IT sector compared to Trump, analysts at Angel Broking believe. </li></ul>Stock markets around the globe saw the worst October this year, given the resurgence of COVID cases worldwide. But one other reason for the caution was the US Presidential elections. Indian stock-market index, Sensex, has shed over 222 points in the past one week, and if we eliminate today’s trading gains, the loss goes above 772 points in a week. The race to the White House is a keenly tracked global event. While it may be challenging to anticipate the outcome this time around, the impact on Indian markets is likely to be positive, according to UBS. They believe that if Biden comes to power by winning both houses of Congress, India will benefit from “potentially more favourable US trade policies.” Why is the US Presidential election important for India? Analysts believe that this time around, there is likely to be some delay around the verdict of US elections. Also, the possibility of it being contested in the Supreme Court will lead to volatility in the markets. “The US election is important for India not only economically but also strategically,” said Binod Modi, head of the strategy, Reliance Securities. Joseph Thomas, head of research at Emkay Wealth Management, said the markets in India might see heightened volatility in the run-up to the elections and immediately after that. “This volatility is the result of a perception that there could be drastic changes in the US policy depending upon who is going to win.” Jyoti Roy, equity strategist, Angel Broking, explained that a favourable outcome of the US elections results would result in a risk-on environment leading to strong foreign portfolio investment flows for India. Whereas, an adverse outcome of the US elections, on the other hand, will result in a global risk-off environment, which will lead to foreign institutional investors pulling out money from India and put pressure on the markets. How Biden’s victory may play out for India equities? The sectors which may continue to benefit as far as India is concerned is technology, pharma and healthcare, insurance and the consumer sector. According to Modi from Reliance Securities, no matter the outcome of US elections, the relations with India would continue to remain good given recent geopolitical developments. However, the democratic party’s win in the election can result in higher fiscal stimulus and favourable immigration policies, which bodes well for emerging market equities, including India. Angel Broking’s Roy also said Biden’s victory would also be extremely positive for the IT sector as the restrictions placed on H1B visas by the Trump administration are likely to be reversed. And, “In such a scenario, we would also recommend HCL Technologies and Persistent systems as our top picks from the IT space in case of a Joe Biden victory.” Whereas Amit Jain, Chief Strategist - Global Asset Class, Ashika Group, said “If Biden wins then you may see the World be back to Pre-Trump era, where you will see much better trade relations within the World Economies. This may benefit all the sectors, as we may see much better harmony and trade relationships within the world economies.” What if Trump wins? Abhimanyu Sofat, head of research at IIFL Securities, believes that Trump’s victory will simply lead to the continuation of the current stalemate in global trade. Hence, nothing major is expected pertaining to any specific sector. However, Angel Broking said, “Trump’s victory will be positive for cyclical sectors like Auto, Banking and small-ticket consumer durables.” In the Auto sector, they prefer two-wheeler stocks with Hero Motocorp and Endurance Technologies as their top picks. Cholamandalam Investments and IDFC First Bank are the top picks in the BFSI space, while Hawkins Cooker is the top pick consumer durable space, Roy added. SEE ALSO:<a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/thelife/personalities/news/prajakta-koli-aka-mostlysane-advice-for-content-creators-on-the-fine-line-between-brand-collaborations-and-staying-honest-on-social-media/articleshow/79013162.cms" data-type="tilCustomLink"> Prajakta Koli aka MostlySane’s advice for content creators on the fine line between brand collaborations and staying honest on social media</a> <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/international/news/india-hits-out-at-pakistan-for-taking-advantage-of-coronavirus-pandemic-to-enhance-cross-border-terrorism/articleshow/79013307.cms" data-type="tilCustomLink">India hits out at Pakistan for taking advantage of coronavirus pandemic to enhance cross-border terrorism</a>

Here’s what the result of the US elections could mean for Indian stock market

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Both United States Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and President Donald Trump have said that the government is "looking at" banning <keyword id="6762469" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="TikTok">TikTok</keyword> in the United States.</li><li>While it's unclear what a TikTok ban would look like, TikTok users have been reacting to the news.</li><li>Insider spoke with several <keyword id="8637178" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="tiktokers">TikTokers</keyword> who had varying reactions to a potential ban.</li><li>Many TikTokers are worried about losing their followings and communities on the app.</li><li>Users are telling followers to connect with them on other social media platforms. </li></ul>On Monday, <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/pompeo-says-us-certainly-considering-banning-tiktok-fox-news-2020-7">United States Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said on Fox News that the US government was "certainly looking at" banning TikTok</a>, citing security concerns (TikTok is owned by Chinese <keyword id="6358815" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="tech">tech</keyword> company ByteDance). President Donald Trump <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/donald-trump-considering-banning-tiktok-2020-7">echoed Pompeo's remarks on Tuesday</a>, implying that banning TikTok in the US would be a kind of punitive measure against China for the coronavirus.While information about any kind of potential ban is muddy at best, TikTokers have been taking to the platform to share their feelings about a potential ban. Many seemed to take the idea of a "ban" in the most extreme sense of the word — TikTok being entirely shut down in the US — prompting people to make contingency plans and reminisce about the good times they've had on the app. Insider spoke with several creators about their reactions to Pompeo's claim that the United States government is "looking at" banning TikTok, and what would change for them in the event that they were fully cut off from the app. <h2>TikTok creators, especially those with smaller platforms, are worried about losing their followings</h2>For many creators, TikTok has afforded them an opportunity to connect with other users, grow their online platform, and create content that may not have had a home elsewhere. "I really like TikTok because I've made a small platform for myself here," Matthew Yescas, who has nearly 5,600 followers and goes by <a href="https://www.tiktok.com/@matthewyescas3">@matthewyescase3</a> on the app, told Insider. "So when I saw that they were trying to ban TikTok I was so disappointed because I had amassed a pretty decent following and met a lot of online friends."Other creators echoed the sentiment on the app, posting videos about the people that they had gotten to know and the way that the platform had helped to build a following for other projects. "The concept of TikTok getting banned in the US is a scary thing to me and a lot of other creators I know," Will Mahony, who posts videos to an audience of approximately 1.4 million on his account <a href="https://www.tiktok.com/@wahony">@wahony</a>, told Insider. "A lot of people's careers are relying almost completely on TikTok… Teenagers, in general, would also be devastated, the vast majority of people I know use TikTok for hours a day for memes, drama, and even politics."<h2>Many are encouraging their followers to connect with them on other social media platforms</h2>In the time since news about the potential ban began to spread on the app, TikTok users were quick to set up contingency plans, thanking their followers and <a href="https://www.tiktok.com/@troubled_cryst/video/6846804955731365126">directing them towards their accounts</a> on other social media platforms. Others lamented the potential loss of unique spaces or archives that they had built on the app. In a <a href="https://www.tiktok.com/@arbacn/video/6846879525180034310">TikTok video posted on Tuesday</a>, <a href="https://www.tiktok.com/@arbacn">@arbacn</a>, who has 1.8 million followers, spoke about how the account served as "a digital diary of my last year of high school."TikTok creator <a href="https://www.tiktok.com/@ironno">@ironno</a> also posted a video speaking about the potential impacts of a ban, and lamenting the potential loss of a platform that's been especially fruitful for BIPOC creators. "TikTok has been a complete game-changer for minorities," she said. "We've been able to connect with each other on such a fast and global scale, learn so many things about other people's cultures, and realize that we have a lot more similarities than differences." <h2>People have varying feelings about the ban, and there are plenty of theories about why it's being talked about now</h2>While many TikTokers appear to be stressed about a potential ban, others felt that the government's priorities should be elsewhere. "Speaking as a Muslim American, Mike Pompeo can go to hell. He's a racist, Islamophobic scumbag," Zahra, a TikToker whose account <a href="https://www.tiktok.com/@muslimthicc">@muslimthicc</a> has approximately 2.7 million followers, told Insider, asking that her last name be withheld due to security concerns. "In regards to his comments about looking into TikTok and security concerns, I think it's absolutely ridiculous that our government is more adamant about banning a video sharing app than it is about banning assault rifles or dealing with much more pressing issues like police brutality or missing indigenous women in our country," she said. And while some creators lightly poked fun at those who were stressed over the potential ban, theories about the motivation behind a ban have run rampant on the platform. Some hypothesized it was a retaliatory measure after <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/tiktok-teens-and-k-pop-fans-tanked-trumps-tulsa-rally-2020-6">TikTok users and K-pop stans took credit for tanking President Trump's Tulsa, Oklahoma, campaign rally</a> by reserving tickets en masse. Others claimed that it was a measure to silence Gen Z. "I feel like the real reason that they're trying to ban the app isn't because of a 'security concern' but because the government doesn't like things that are foreign to them. They don't really have any control over what happens on TikTok," Matthew Yescas told Insider.<h2>TikTok users with followings on other platforms don't seem as concerned about a potential ban</h2>Some of TikTok's biggest names have been quiet about the possibility of the ban. Charli D'Amelio, TikTok's top creator, doesn't appear to have acknowledged the ban on social media and did not return Insider's request for comment. Both <a href="https://www.tiktok.com/@joshrichards/video/6847545192245906693" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Josh Richards</a> and <a href="https://twitter.com/lilpapivoni/status/1280829788182073344?s=20" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Avani Gregg</a> have posted about a potential TikTok ban on social media but did not return Insider's requests for comment.Perhaps they're not too concerned. Most of TikTok's top talent have massive followings on other platforms like YouTube, Instagram, and Twitter. In the event of a ban, their fame and status likely won't see a major drop.Take Will Mahony (@wahony), <a href="https://www.tiktok.com/@wahony?lang=en">a TikTok user with over a million followers</a> on the app who told Insider that he "wouldn't be so far gone" in the event of a ban given his followings on both YouTube and Instagram. He also said he was planning on investing more time into his YouTube channel regardless."That's not the case for so many creators who base their career off TikTok," he added.Melissa Ong, who posts to approximately 2.1 million followers on her account <a href="https://www.tiktok.com/@chunkysdead/video/6846839089174433029">@chunkysdead</a> and is the<a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/26/style/step-chickens-tiktok-cult-wars.html"> leader of the "Step-chickens cult,"</a> told Insider that she was against a ban, but in the event of one, she would move her videos over to YouTube, Instagram, and Twitter. In a recently published video, she said that she's focusing on other platforms, saying that she doesn't feel as motivated to post on the app if it's "just going to abort all [her] content." Zahra (@muslimthicc) told Insider that she wasn't sure if she'd continue making content in the event of a TikTok ban in the US. "I'm a senior in college studying computer science and I plan to pursue a career in my field after graduation, so I don't think content creation is a long term plan for me," she said.Ultimately, many TikTokers simply don't want to lose the community that they've built. While it's possible to move to other platforms, for those who have found a home on TikTok, the experience won't be the same."[A ban] would suck for TikTok creators such as myself, as well as for the bajillions of people who come to TikTok every day for the unique entertainment that it provides," Melissa Ong, a.k.a. <a href="https://slack-redir.net/link?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.tiktok.com%2F%40chunkysdead%2Fvideo%2F6846839089174433029" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">@chunkysdead,</a> told Insider.<h2>This isn't the first time members of the US government have raised questions about TikTok</h2>Pompeo and Trump's comments come on the heels of <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/india-bans-tiktok-dozens-of-other-chinese-apps-security-concerns-2020-6">India blocking TikTok along with other Chinese apps</a> that the Indian government said posed a security threat.It's also not the first time <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/apple-and-tiktok-had-empty-seats-at-the-senate-hearing-2019-11">anti-TikTok skepticism has arisen in the United States government</a>: Senators like Josh Hawley, one of TikTok's biggest critics, have <a href="https://twitter.com/HawleyMO/status/1191138973252493313?s=20">called the app's ties to China into question</a>. Other lawmakers, including <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-senators-worried-tiktok-bytedance-national-security-risk-investigation-2019-10">Sen. Chuck Schumer, Sen. Tom Cotton</a>, and <a href="https://twitter.com/marcorubio/status/1181907273918099457?s=20">Sen. Marco Rubio</a>, have called for investigations into TikTok. The app has been <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-government-agencies-have-banned-tiktok-app-2020-2#5-the-marine-corps-expressed-similar-reasoning-for-a-ban-in-january-5">banned by a number of United States government agencies</a>.TikTok <a href="https://newsroom.tiktok.com/en-us/explaining-tiktoks-approach-in-the-us">said in a November 2019 blog post</a> that its content moderation policies adhere to local laws and guidelines, and that it stores the data of United States app users in the US and Singapore, not China. The company <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/donald-trump-considering-banning-tiktok-2020-7">recently told Business Insider </a>that it has "never provided user data to the Chinese government, nor would we do so if asked."Currently, there's no definite information as to whether or not TikTok will be banned in the United States. And, as <a href="https://www.theverge.com/2020/7/9/21315983/trump-pompeo-ban-tiktok-bytedance-chinese-social-media-national-security-censorship-methods">The Verge's Adi Robertson reported</a>, there's not even clarity on what exactly a "ban" would mean, and any action that would fully cut United States users off from the app's network seems unlikely.<ul class="read-more-links"><li>Read more:</li><li><a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/donald-trump-considering-banning-tiktok-2020-7">Trump said he's considering banning TikTok to punish China over the coronavirus</a></li><li><a href="https://www.insider.com/tiktokalypse-tiktok-drama-chase-hudson-lilhuddy-charli-damelio-2020-7">A falling-out between TikTok's biggest stars led to a wave of creators unfollowing and subtweeting each other</a></li><li><a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/tiktok-police-law-enforcement-requests-2020-7">Leaked documents show what it looks like when TikTok hands over a user's data to police</a></li><li><a href="https://www.insider.com/tiktok-teens-to-shut-down-trumps-online-merch-stores-2020-7">TikTokers are attempting to shut down Trump's online merch store, but their tactic may not work</a></li></ul>

TikTok creators are worried about losing their followings as the Trump administration considers banning the app

<ul><li>Policy analysts feel that the reform agenda has taken a back seat to political issues during Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s second term in office.</li><li>However, they believe small changes — like caps on foreign direct investment (FDI) and fixing the goods and services tax (GST) — can be made without "generating a lot of heat and tension".</li><li>The Indian economy has gone from being one the fastest growing in the world to hitting stagflation in a matter of months.</li></ul>Narendra Modi’s second term as India’s Prime Minister has been fraught with <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/tech/news/caa-internet-shutdowns-make-india-example-for-china/articleshow/72931761.cms">protests</a> and <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/politics/india/news/shiv-sena-chief-uddhav-thackeray-sworn-in-maharashtra-chief-minister/articleshow/72280034.cms">political tension</a>. With the <keyword id="6360189" type="ORGANIZATION" weightage="20" keywordseo="union-budget">Union Budget</keyword> 2020 around the corner, many are wondering what the central government’s vision is for reforms in the coming year. Policy analysts at the Raisina Dialogue 2020 feel the government may be a little distracted. However, despite political issues, there is room for reform without upsetting too many feathers. "I think what has happened in the second term, as far as perception goes, is we sense that the administration has gotten distracted with the political issues than the reforms issues and then economic issues," said Bharath Gopalaswamy, Senior Fellow at the Observer Research Foundation (ORF) India on the sidelines of <a href="https://www.facebook.com/ORFOnline/videos/603178493797939/">Raisina 2020</a>. India went from being the world’s fastest-growing economy to hitting stagflation <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/policy/economy/news/indian-economy-went-from-worlds-fastest-growing-to-stagflation-in-just-a-few-months/articleshow/72500016.cms">in a matter of months.</a> Retail inflation is on the rise, factory output is nowhere close to its targets, and some industries in the sector are on a negative growth trajectory. Analysts predict that the country’s economic growth is <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/business/news/indias-economic-growth-likely-to-remain-subdued-in-near-future-report/articleshow/72330188.cms">likely to stay subdued</a> in the future as the slowdown deepens. However, <a href="https://www.facebook.com/ORFOnline/videos/603178493797939/">Richard M. Rossow</a>, senior adviser of US-India policy studies at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), believes the government still has a few some options — like removing restrictions on FDI, fixing the goods and services tax (GST) and simplifying bankruptcy procedures. Nursing the economy back to health through FDI "I think there’s room to do some reforms that won’t take as much political will. Look at FDI [foreign direct investment] caps — 21 years ago, any FDI cap was a political hot potato. And now, the government’s opening up defense, retail and insurance — and the blowback against doing that has been relatively minor," Rossow said. According to the Department of Promotion and Industry and Internal Trade (<a href="https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/economy/policy/india-hopes-to-continue-fdi-growth-story-in-2020/articleshow/73041537.cms?from=mdr">DPIIT</a>), the inflow of foreign investment has not been impacted by the slowdown. However, not all sectors in the Indian economy are open to 100% FDI — a few are still completely restricted. "There are about 20 other sectors that still have FDI restrictions. Without major blowback or opening up most of those, the potential quick injection of new money by foreign investors is relatively easy," explained Rossow. Life insurance companies are already lining up government lobbies to <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/business/news/life-insurers-bat-for-100-pc-foreign-investment-in-sector-via-automatic-route/articleshow/72874288.cms">increase automatic approval</a> from 49% to 100%. Investment under the automatic route does not require prior approval from the government. On the other hand, the government is looking to <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/business/news/dpiit-to-soon-issue-clarification-on-26-pc-fdi-in-digital-media-sector/articleshow/72963869.cms">cap investments in digital media companies</a> to 26% leaving foreign websites with 100% investment, confused. Dealing with debt and fixing tax regimes Aside from FDI, Rossow believes that the smaller steps like fixing issues with the goods and services tax (GST) and bankruptcy code can also be implemented without "generating a lot of heat and tension". Simplification of the GST is also a reform suggested by Indian economists for the upcoming <keyword id="6358021" type="ORGANIZATION" weightage="20" keywordseo="budget">budget</keyword>. Indian mobile makers are also looking for <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/tech/news/budget-2020-indias-mobile-phones-makers-fear-for-jobs-in-the-face-of-fewer-incentives-and-global-competition/articleshow/73261138.cms">a reduction of GST on parts and accessories</a>. When it comes to the banking sector, sources told <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/business/news/govt-unlikely-to-announce-capital-infusion-for-psu-banks-in-budget/articleshow/73105942.cms">PTI</a> that the government has no plans of capital infusion and is, instead, looking at encouraging banks to expedite the recovery of bad loans. However, that’s easier said than done. "Currently there are a lot of defaulters and banks that are underwater because of this ‘bad lending’, so to speak. But you also run the risk of excessive regulation and excessive scrutiny. You want to protect the regulator yet at the same time, somebody who has good credit should be able to get loans easily rather than pay the price for someone who will willfully default," explains Gopalaswamy. The haziness around the National Company Law Appellate Tribunal (NCLAT) and its dealings with the Indian Bankruptcy Code; is also posing hurdles. "We [private sector] are dealing with the Indian Bankruptcy Code and we’re dealing with the NCLAT process. And, the process is so cumbersome. At some levels it’s opaque and it’s still evolving. So the uncertainty as a foreign company trying to buy an Indian company or do a joint venture is still not the easiest process out here," he added. See also: <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/tech/news/budget-2020-indias-mobile-phones-makers-fear-for-jobs-in-the-face-of-fewer-incentives-and-global-competition/articleshow/73261138.cms">Budget 2020: India’s mobile phones makers fear for jobs in the face of fewer incentives and global competition</a> <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/defense/news/indias-budget-allocation-for-defence-has-remained-fairly-static-for-the-past-five-years/articleshow/73153930.cms">Budget 2020: Five charts that explain what you can expect from India’s defence expenditure this year</a> <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/defense/news/indian-army-versus-military-spending-on-other-countries/articleshow/73182937.cms">Here's how the budget allocation for Armed Forces in India stacks up on the global scale</a>

Budget 2020 aside, these are some of the reforms that India can execute without causing political 'heat and tension'

US President <keyword id="99719" type="PERSON" weightage="20" keywordseo="Joe-Biden">Joe Biden</keyword>'s administration has announced it is cancelling a proposal by his predecessor <keyword id="6354484" type="PERSON" weightage="20" keywordseo="Donald-Trump">Donald Trump</keyword> to limit student visas to a four-year term for scholars from <keyword id="3658" type="COUNTRY" weightage="20" keywordseo="India">India</keyword> and most other countries. The <keyword id="134917" type="ORGANIZATION" weightage="20" keywordseo="department-of-homeland-security">Department of Homeland Security</keyword> (<keyword id="57003" type="ORGANIZATION" weightage="20" keywordseo="DHS">DHS</keyword>) published the decision on Tuesday and said that it would also drop the proposed limits on visa for journalists. The DHS said that it had received about 32,000 public comments, of which 99 per cent were critical of the proposal made by the Trump administration last September and, therefore, it was withdrawing the proposed changes. It said that it "is concerned that the changes proposed unnecessarily impede access to immigration benefits." By keeping the current visa regulations, students on F and J visas would be able to keep their visas in the US as long as they are continuing their studies and journalists on I visas while keeping their jobs. If the changes had gone through, they would have had to apply to the <keyword id="11600526" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="20" keywordseo="citizenship-and-immigration-service">Citizenship and Immigration Service</keyword> for extensions or leave the country and apply to the <keyword id="1811553" type="ORGANIZATION" weightage="20" keywordseo="Customs-and-Border-Protection">Customs and Border Protection</keyword> agency for readmission. The Trump administration proposal would have further reduced the limits on student visas to two years for certain countries a large number of whose citizens were overstaying their visas. The DHS reported that those opposing the time limit said "would significantly burden the foreign students, exchange scholars, (and) foreign media representatives" and "impose exorbitant costs." "Higher education groups were alarmed by the plan to change the policy, which, they argued, would create uncertainty and confusion for students who would have to navigate a burdensome and costly new reapplication process in order to continue their studies in the US," Inside Higher Education reported. The businesses that wrote in against the proposal said that "many noncitizens may not be able to apply for an extension of stay or have it approved in a timely fashion, thereby delaying the possible start dates of employees and/or cause them to lose potential job candidates," the DHS added. The DHS, however, said that it still supports the goal of the proposal, which was "to protect the integrity of programmes that admit nonimmigrants in the F, J, and I" visa categories and would analyse it while ensuring that it conformed to Biden's executive order issued in February on "restoring faith in our legal immigration systems." Typically, students in PhD or research programmes or pursuing other advanced degrees require more than four years. Students transitioning to practical training programmes could also be affected, impacting businesses that rely on foreign students to power their development. SEE ALSO: <a target="_blank" class="c-link c-message_attachment__title_link" href="https://www.businessinsider.in/cryptocurrency/news/indian-crypto-exchanges-arent-worried-about-the-lull-in-trading-volumes-they-see-it-as-an-opportunity/articleshow/84256471.cms">Indian crypto exchanges aren’t worried about the lull in trading volumes — they see it as an opportunity</a> <a target="_blank" class="c-link c-message_attachment__title_link" href="https://www.businessinsider.in/business/corporates/news/tcs-hires-over-20000-in-june-quarter-its-highest-ever-quarterly-addition/articleshow/84240423.cms">TCS has loaded up half a million peeps as it expects many to move on</a>

Joe Biden cancels Donald Trump's proposal to limit foreign student visas to four-year term

<ul class="summary-list"><li>The Biden administration is banning most travel from <keyword id="3658" type="COUNTRY" weightage="60" keywordseo="India">India</keyword> amid its escalating <keyword id="8763838" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="covid-19">COVID-19</keyword> outbreak. </li><li>Biden has gone back and forth on the issue of travel bans. </li><li>Last year, Biden said that banning all travel from any part of the world would not stop COVID-19.</li></ul>The Biden administration on Friday announced it's <a href="https://t.co/pS6E3IrIA2?amp=1">barring most travel from India</a> starting next week in response to the escalating COVID-19 crisis in the country. The move goes against past statements made by President <keyword id="99719" type="PERSON" weightage="60" keywordseo="Joe-Biden">Joe Biden</keyword> on travel bans, including once stating that such restrictions would "not stop the coronavirus."Conservative critics of the president have <a href="https://www.politifact.com/factchecks/2020/oct/23/donald-trump/trump-repeats-flawed-claim-biden-opposed-trumps-co/">misleadingly said</a> that Biden called President <keyword id="6354484" type="PERSON" weightage="60" keywordseo="Donald-Trump">Donald Trump</keyword>'s travel restrictions on China xenophobic, painting the new prohibitions on travel from India as hypocritical. Biden never explicitly said this, but he has gone back and forth on the issue of travel bans or restrictions. On the same day Trump announced travel restrictions on China last January, Biden during a campaign speech in Iowa said, "This is no time for Donald Trump's record of hysterical xenophobia and fear mongering to lead the way instead of science."The Biden campaign <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2020/03/26/trumps-faux-facts-fox-news/">told the Washington Post</a> that he was referencing Trump's call for travel bans during the Ebola crisis as well as his travel restrictions on predominantly Muslim countries, and pointed to similar remarks Biden made in a USA Today op-ed four days before the China ban was announced. "I remember how Trump sought to stoke fear and stigma during the 2014 Ebola epidemic," <a href="https://www.usatoday.com/story/opinion/2020/01/27/coronavirus-donald-trump-made-us-less-prepared-joe-biden-column/4581710002/">Biden said</a> in the op-ed, denouncing Trump for pushing for "reactionary travel bans that would only have made things worse." Biden was also critical of Trump's restrictions on travel with regard to Europe. In <a href="https://twitter.com/JoeBiden/status/1238254697695326209?s=20">a tweet</a> last March after Trump suspended travel both to and from a number of European countries, Biden said, "A wall will not stop the coronavirus. Banning all travel from Europe - or any other part of the world - will not stop it. This disease could impact every nation and any person on the planet - and we need a plan to combat it." Around that time, Biden also unveiled a plan to combat the COVID-19 pandemic. Speaking to reporters on the plan, <a href="https://www.rev.com/blog/transcripts/joe-biden-speech-transcript-on-coronavirus-march-12-2020">Biden said,</a> "Banning all travel from Europe or any other part of the world may slow it, but as we've seen, it will not stop it. And travel restrictions based on favoritism and <keyword id="6358883" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="100" keywordseo="politics">politics</keyword> rather than a risk will be counterproductive."But Biden in early April then came out and expressed support for Trump's travel restrictions on China. "Joe Biden supports travel bans that are guided by medical experts, advocated by public health officials, and backed by a full strategy," Kate Bedingfield, Biden's deputy campaign manager at the time, <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/03/politics/joe-biden-trump-china-coronavirus/index.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">told CNN</a>. "Science supported this ban, therefore he did too."Some public health experts have <a href="https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2020/03/12/815146007/public-health-experts-question-trumps-ban-on-most-travelers-from-europe">questioned the efficacy of travel bans</a> in preventing the spread of COVID-19, though many have also advocated for <a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/covid-surge-india-travel-restrictions/">varying levels of travel restrictions</a> regarding certain countries where the outbreaks are especially bad - including India. Lawrence Gostin, director of the O'Neill Institute for National and Global Health Law at Georgetown University Law Center, in <a href="https://twitter.com/LawrenceGostin/status/1388210151589564416?s=20">a tweet</a> on Friday said, "[The] US has started a humanitarian mission to assist India. A flat travel ban impedes our vital humanitarian goals. That's why proof of vaccination or a negative test makes sense, but not a ban. It doesn't stop the flow of medical supplies, but does help keep variants from our shores."

Biden is banning most travel from India to the US, but once said such restrictions would not stop COVID-19

<keyword id="3395119" type="COMPANY" weightage="100" keywordseo="Head-Hunters-India">Head Hunters India</keyword>, an executive search firm located in Bengaluru, has called IT giant <keyword id="6354512" type="CITY" weightage="100" keywordseo="Infosys">Infosys</keyword>' decision to hire 10,000 Americans an act to 'appease' the <a href="http://www.businessinsider.in/A-powerful-Trump-cabinet-member-is-proving-a-point-economists-have-been-trying-to-make-for-years/articleshow/58523175.cms">Trump administration</a>. As per Founder-Chairman-MD K Lakshmikanth, local <a href="http://www.businessinsider.in/small-business/companies/amid-growing-protectionism-clamour-infosys-plans-to-hire-10000-u-s-workers/articleshow/58471379.cms">hiring in the US</a> is a costly process, which would lead to offshore job cuts in India. Infosys made the announcement amid US accusations that top Indian IT firms like TCS and <a href="http://www.businessinsider.in/tech/infosys-launches-ai-platform-nia/articleshow/58398195.cms">Infosys </a>were unfairly cornering the lion's share of <a href="http://www.businessinsider.in/latest/h-1b-premium-processing-put-on-hold-to-handle-massive-work-visa-applications/articleshow/57689789.cms">H-1B visas</a> by putting extra tickets in the lottery system. Trump has recently signed an executive order which asks for stringent <a href="http://www.businessinsider.in/latest/change-in-h-1b-visa-rules-might-be-delayed-indian-tech-companies-breathe-sigh-of-relief/articleshow/57667203.cms">H-1B visa rules</a> so that foreign countries can’t 'abuse' it, and send only the best of their staff to the US. This decision is all set to put a negative impact on India's $150 billion IT industry. "The announcement of the US Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) to deter and detect what it described as fraud and abuse of the H-1B work visas is indicative of US government's intentions to go tough and stringent in approval of H-1B visas this year," Lakshmikanth said. Also read: <a href="http://www.businessinsider.in/international/jaitley-calls-protectionism-a-major-global-concern/articleshow/58394323.cms">Protectionism a major global concern, says Jaitley</a> It was on May 3rd that Infosys had announced it’s decision to <a href="http://www.businessinsider.in/small-business/companies/infosys-plays-down-cost-concerns-from-u-s-hiring-plan/articleshow/58515103.cms">hire 10,000 Americans</a> in the next two years while also opening four new centres in the US. In the minimum salary of a skilled American techie, which is $80,000 (Rs 52 lakh) per year, Infosys can hire four software engineers in India for its offshore development work. This is why Lakshmikanth thinks that Infosys would take its time in <a href="http://www.businessinsider.in/international/trump-wants-to-encourage-hiring-americans/articleshow/58239808.cms">hiring Americans</a>. Also read: <a href="http://www.businessinsider.in/Indian-techies-have-nowhere-to-go-to-now/articleshow/58258973.cms">Indian techies have nowhere to go to now</a> Currently, an Indian IT firm pays $60,000-65,000 per year for techies working in the US on H-1B visas and they return after three years of onsite work. Lakshmikanth also said if Infosys hired about 500 Americans techies, it will result in a loss of 2,000 jobs in India for offshore operations. "Automation and artificial intelligence will reduce hiring by another 30-40 per cent," he added. On April 24, Nasscom had come out in defence of its members - TCS and Infosys - saying the two accounted for only 8.8 per cent of the approved H1B visas in 2014-15. The H-1B is a non-immigrant visa that allows US companies to employ foreign workers in speciality occupations requiring theoretical or technical expertise in specialised fields. Indian technology companies depend on it to hire tens of thousands of employees each year for their US operations. (Image source BreakingViews)

Infosys trying to appease Trump government by hiring Americans, says Head Hunters

The US State Department in a federal notification Wednesday proposed to make changes to its existing visa regulations under which <keyword id="738953" type="PERSON" weightage="20" keywordseo="Foreign-professionals">foreign professionals</keyword>, which would fall under H-1B, would not be issued temporary visa for business, as has been widely prevalent currently. If finalized, this proposal will eliminate any misconception that the "B-1 in lieu of H policy" provides an alternative avenue for foreign professionals to enter the US to perform <keyword id="438013" type="PERSON" weightage="20" keywordseo="skilled-labour">skilled labour</keyword> that allows, and potentially even encourages them and their employers to circumvent the restrictions and requirements relating to the H nonimmigrant classification established by the Congress to protect US workers, the State Department said. The move is likely to impact a lot of Indian companies who send their technology professionals on B-1 visas for a short stay to complete the jobs on site in the US. On December 17, 2019, the California Attorney General announced a $800,000 settlement against <keyword id="6354512" type="COMPANY" weightage="20" keywordseo="Infosys">Infosys</keyword> Limited to resolve allegations that approximately 500 Infosys employees worked in California on Infosys-sponsored B-1 visas rather than H-1B visas, the State Department said. "The proposed changes and the resulting transparency would reduce the impact of foreign labour on the US workforce of aliens performing activities in a specialty occupation without the procedural protections attendant to the H-1B classification," it said. In its federal notification issued on Wednesday, the State Department said US architecture firm seeking protection from rising labour costs in the country might believe it could lay off its US architects and contract for the same professional architectural services to be provided by a foreign architecture firm. If the foreign firm sought H-1B visas for its architects, it would be required to pay the prevailing wage for architects in the area of intended employment in the United States, presumably the same wage the US architects had been paid, and meet the other requirements enacted by the Congress to protect US workers. But under the B-1 in lieu of H policy, the foreign architects could ostensibly seek B-1 visas and travel to the US to fill a temporary need for architecture services, so long as they retained a residence in the foreign country and continued to receive a salary, perhaps significantly lower than what is customary for US architects, dispersed abroad by the foreign firm (or under the auspices of a foreign parent or subsidiary), the State Department said. Under the Department's guidance, visas could be issued for multiple architects planning temporary work in the United States, in certain situations. However, a foreign employer may succeed in undermining US immigration law and policy by rotating architects between the US and the foreign country to effectively fill the position of one US architect at a significantly lower cost, the notification said. "If the architects who intended to perform skilled labour were "of distinguished merit and ability... seeking to perform (temporary architectural services) of an exceptional nature requiring such merit and ability, one might argue the current regulatory language suggests this type of labour is a permissible basis for B-1 nonimmigrant visa issuance," the State Department said. This potential outcome is harmful to US workers and contrary to policies of the Trump Administration, it said. The State Department said the application process for a B-1 visa does not include similar procedural requirements to protect US workers like that of H-1B visas. Also, the fees for the B-1 visas are far less than that of H-1B visas. While the Congress required H-1B employers to pay significant fees to fund assistance to the US workforce as well as prevention and detection of fraud related to skilled labour, employers are not required to pay comparable fees to employ skilled workers under the B-1 in lieu of H policy, it said. According to the notification, the State Department estimates that this proposal will affect no more than 6,000 to 8,000 foreign workers per year, specifically aliens intending to provide services in a specialty occupation in the US. As per its estimate, up to 28 per cent of the approximately 8,000 annual B-1 visa issuances under the B-1 in lieu of H policy were to foreign workers who applied for a visa to perform services in a specialty occupation for a small entity in the US. SEE ALSO: <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/india/news/india-gets-a-rap-from-un-human-rights-commission-a-day-after-it-seals-the-office-of-kashmir-times/articleshow/78783770.cms">India gets a rap from UN Human Rights Commission a day after it seals the office of Kashmir Times</a> <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/india/news/kashmir-elections-to-come-early-as-union-cabinet-announced-panchayat-raj-system-for-ut/articleshow/78786911.cms">Kashmir elections to come early as Union Cabinet announced Panchayat Raj System for UT</a> <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/india/news/bonus-for-30-lakh-public-sector-employees-announced-by-union-cabinet/articleshow/78786783.cms">Bonus for 30 lakh public sector employees announced by Union Cabinet</a>

You Searched For "impact of Trump administration on FDI in India" and got 12 results

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Joe Biden cancels Donald Trump's proposal to limit foreign student visas to four-year term

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Biden is banning most travel from India to the US, but once said such restrictions would not stop COVID-19

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