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Economists at the country's largest lender, SBI, today said they see India's Q2 real GDP growth slowing down further to 6.5% in the September quarter of this fiscal year. Amid concerns over the country's economic growth rate and whether it is slowing down, the analysts said they expect FY25 growth to come "closer to" 7%. SBI analysts join a long line of agencies like Fitch, ADB, IMF, Moody, World Bank, S&amp;P, and even RBI in forecasting India's GDP growth for FY25 in the range of 6.8% to 7.2% for FY25, driven by robust consumption and investment. SIP inflows have been at an all-time high, and so has QIP (qualified institutional placement) fundraising. As many as 71 companies raised Rs 88,678 crore this year through QIPs. Activity in Indian primary markets also remained robust, with 78 mainboard IPOs in 2024; this is a 111% rise from just 38 listings in FY23. Between April and June 2024, India's real GDP grew by 6.7%, the lowest growth seen in 15 quarters, pushing experts to believe that India is caught in a cycle of slowdown. "There is some incipient pressure evident on the domestic economy. Based on our analysis of 50 meaningful leading indicators (both consumption and demand-centric), a dip looks plausible across select cohorts of agriculture, industry, and services in Q2," the <keyword id="22337294" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="SBI-economists" source="keywords">SBI economists</keyword> added. Stating that they track 50 indicators to gauge economic activity, SBIs note said the proportion of indicators showing acceleration declined to 69% in Q2 FY25, as against 80% in Q2 FY24 and 78% in Q1 FY25. However, things might be changing now, given that rural demand has started looking up amidst muted urban demand. SBI also explained that the ongoing regulatory tightening on unsecured lending and roadblocks that are hindering rollover/refinancing of debt through unsecured credit are dismantling the unwarranted exuberance that had built up post-pandemic, especially in the urban areas. Madhu Lunawat, CIO &amp; Fund Manager, Bharat Value Fund states that the overall investment environment remains strong due to favorable economic conditions supporting government policies &amp; reforms. "The sustainable inflow from domestic investors is going to support the Indian equity market in any kind of correction. The long-term bullish structure of Indian economy will continue to attract new domestic &amp; global investors to participate in India’s growth story through various Investment avenues.” <h2>Rate cuts not on cards</h2>RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das clarified today that changing the monetary policy stance to 'neutral' does not mean a rate cut is imminent in the central bank's next policy announcement. Notably, RBI MPC is set to meet between December 4 and 6, 2024, to decide if the prevailing repo rate of 6.5%, which has stayed unchanged for the last 2 years, should be brought down or not. In its last meeting, The <keyword id="20501100" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="RBI-monetary-policy" source="keywords">RBI monetary policy</keyword> committee had shifted its stance to 'neutral' indicating that it is open to adjusting interest rates based on economic conditions. "It should not be assumed that we have done this, so therefore the next step is a rate cut. A change in stance doesn't mean that the next step is a rate cut in the very next meeting. It's not so," Das said. Das also cautioned that inflation remains a key factor, and inflation and CPI prints for October are expected to stay high.

SBI economists see Q2 GDP growth slowing down to 6.5%; FY25 growth to be closer to 7%

India is poised to remain the fastest-growing major economy in 2024-25, Chief Economic Adviser V Anantha Nageswaran said in a press conference after the tabling of the <keyword id="20613906" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="economic-survey" source="keywords">Economic Survey</keyword> in the Parliament on Monday. The Economic Survey tabled today projected India to grow at 6.5-7.0 per cent in 2024-25. Global institutions, including <keyword id="19896779" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="IMF" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="IMF" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="IMF">IMF</keyword>, OECD, World Bank, S&amp;P, ADB, and Fitch, have projected India to grow in a range of 6.6-7.2 per cent. The International Monetary Fund (IMF), in its latest outlook, has raised India's growth projections for 2024 from 6.8 per cent earlier to 7 per cent, with the country maintaining the fastest-growing status in emerging markets and developing economies. According to official data of the Indian government, the country's GDP grew at an impressive 8.2 per cent during the financial year 2023-24. India's economy grew 7.2 per cent in 2022-23 and 8.7 per cent in 2021-22 respectively. Further, the CEA in his press conference projected that India's <keyword id="20089672" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="per-capita-income" source="keywords">per capita income</keyword> is expected to increase from around Rs 2 lakh in 2022-23 to Rs 14.9 lakh in 2046-47. Further, CEA said <keyword id="20751315" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="household-savings" source="keywords">household savings</keyword> of Indians in physical assets have been increasing over the past three financial years through 2023-24. The CEA, addressing the press conference, said household savings in physical assets rose from 8 per cent in 2020-21 to 12.9 per cent in 2022-23. "Households are not in distress, they are investing in <keyword id="20792385" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="financial-assets" source="keywords">financial assets</keyword> that have done very well. Financial assets of households are not marked to market so households are doing quite well in the aggregate," he said. India needs both banks and capital markets to provide the required finances sourced from a sustained high level of household savings, according to the Survey. <keyword id="20385790" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Union-Finance-Minister" source="keywords">Union Finance Minister</keyword> Nirmala Sitharaman on Monday tabled the economic survey in Parliament, a day ahead of the full Budget presentation for 2024-25. The Economic Survey document, prepared by the Economic Division of the Department of Economic Affairs in the Ministry of Finance and formulated under the supervision of the chief economic adviser, gives insights into the state of the economy and various indicators of 2023-24 (April-March) and some outlook for the current year. The Economy Survey document also gave some idea about the tone and texture of the actual Budget for 2024-25, to be presented on Tuesday. (ANI)

India to remain fastest growing major economy in 2024-25, says CEA Nageswaran

<ul><li>The Indian economy is expected to grow at over 7% rate in upcoming years</li><li>Fiscal deficit down to 6.4% of <keyword id="19904293" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="GDP" source="keywords">GDP</keyword> in FY24</li><li>Current Account Deficit (CAD) down to 0.7% of GDP </li></ul>With the <keyword id="19908389" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Union-Budget" source="keywords">Union Budget</keyword> 2024 to be presented tomorrow, Finance Minister <keyword id="19916618" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Nirmala-Sitharaman" source="keywords">Nirmala Sitharaman</keyword> is presenting the <keyword id="20613906" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="Economic-Survey" source="keywords">Economic Survey</keyword> in the parliament today. Think of the <keyword id="6354872" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="economic-survey" source="Orion">Economic Survey</keyword> as a report card of the country's economic performance over the past year, along with inputs and outlook for the coming fiscal year. Here are some crucial highlights from the Economic Survey 2023-24: <h2>Macro-economic indicators</h2>Per the World Economic Outlook in April, the <keyword id="19948494" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="global-economic-growth" source="keywords">global economic growth</keyword> was pegged at 3.2% in 2023. In contrast, <keyword id="19895063" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="India" source="keywords">India</keyword>'s real GDP grew by 8.2% in FY24, staying above the 8% mark for 3 out of 4 quarters in FY24. Gross Fixed Capital Formation, or investments in long-term, value-generating fixed assets increased by 9% real terms in 2023-24. The government trimmed down fiscal deficit trimmed down from 6.4% of GDP in FY23 to 5.6% of GDP in FY24.The current account deficit, which indicates that the country is a net importer rather than being an exporter, came down to 0.7% of GDP in FY24, as opposed to 2% of GDP in FY23. While retail inflation averaged at 6.7% in FY23, it dropped down to 5.4% in FY24 During FY24, primary markets saw capital formation, or facilitated raising funds worth Rs 10.9 lakh crore, which makes up for around 29% of the gross fixed capital formation. India's market capitalization to GDP ratio is the fifth largest in the world. <h2>Inflationary Trends </h2>Core inflation eased down to 9-year lows, while core goods inflation came down to a 4-year low. However, food inflation continued to stay high, inching up to 7.5% in FY24, as opposed to 6.6% in FY23. This was largely because of adverse weather conditions, which caused a spike in onion and tomato prices and impacted kharif crop production. Going ahead, RBI's short-term outlook remains positive. Assuming a normal monsoon and no extraordinary policy or geopolitical shocks, the inflation is estimated to drop to 4.5% in FY25, and further down to 4.1% in FY26. These are in line with IMF's inflation forecasts, which stand at 4.6% for 2024 and 4.2% for 2025. <h2>Export-Import trends</h2>India's service exports jumped by 4.9% to $341.1 billion in FY24, driven mainly by IT and software services. Apart from being the top remittance recipient globally, with remittances worth $120 billion in 2023, the country also witnessed investment inflows from foreign investors. As of March 2024, India's forex reserves were sufficient to cover over 10 months of projected imports in FY25, and about 98% of all its external debt. The country's external debt to GDP ratio has been largely consistent over the years, standing at 18.7% of the GDP as of March 2024. <h2>Key growth areas to look out for in FY25 </h2>Essential to adopt bottom-up reform approach, with special short to medium term emphasis on structural changes, job and skill creation, addressing challenges faced by MSMEs, managing India's transition towards a green, clean economy, deepening the country's nascent bond market and laying greater stress on tackling quality of health, especially amongst young Indians. Deliberate focus needed on boosting private investment, expanding India's MSMEs, tapping into the potential of India's agriculture sector, manage India's green transition, urgently bridge the employment-education gap and build capacity of states to sustain and complement India's growth. In the medium term, the country's economy is expected to grow at a rate of over 7%.

Economic Survey 2024: GDP grew by 8.2%, to sustain 7%+ growth momentum, fiscal deficit down to 6.4% of GDP

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Russia's economy is predicted to grow by 3.2% in 2024, outpacing all advanced economies, including the US, the IMF said. </li><li>Despite the war, high investment and robust private consumption have driven Russia's economy forward. </li></ul>Russia's economy is expected to grow significantly faster than major developed economies this year, including the US, according to the International Monetary Fund.The country's war-time economy is forecast to grow by 3.2% in 2024, largely outpacing expected growth for other advanced economies including the US (2.7%), Germany (0.2%), the UK (0.5%), and Japan (0.9%), IMF said in a <a href="https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2024/04/16/world-economic-outlook-april-2024" target="_blank" rel="noopener">report</a> published on Tuesday. The surging growth rate has been linked to the effects of "high investment" and "robust private consumption" buoyed by wage growth in a tight labor market, though the IMF said it expects these effects to taper off in 2025, with a growth rate of 1.8%. The forecast is a wake-up call for Western countries that have hoped to throttle Russia's economy with sanctions to make its war in Ukraine unsustainable. Growth at that level would back up <a href="https://tass.com/economy/1717533" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Vladimir Putin's claims</a> that Russia's economy has withstood the most dire effects of Western sanctions and trade restrictions. Meanwhile, as foreign companies leave Russia amid the war, Moscow has been accruing funds from fleeing firms, <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-economy-moscow-collects-bumper-company-exit-taxes-budget-contributions-2024-3">seizing $387 million as of mid-March</a>.In its energy trade, sustained oil and commodity exports to major markets like India and China, alongside <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/russian-economy-oil-exports-price-cap-sanctions-g7-ukraine-war-2024-4">Russia's sidestepping of G-7 countries' oil price cap</a>, have enabled it to maintain strong energy exports. Russia's resilience against Western sanctions stems largely from its boundless alliance with China. Trade volume between the two countries surged to <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-russia-trade-record-ukraine-war-xi-jinping-vladimir-putin-2024-1">a record $240 billion</a> last year, fueled in part by Beijing's appetite for essential Russian commodities that have been discounted amid the West's reluctance to trade with Moscow.

Russia will grow faster than the US and all other advanced economies this year, the IMF says

<ul class="summary-list"><li>The International Monetary Fund raised its 2024 forecast for Russia's economy.</li><li>It now expects the economy to expand by 2.6% this year.</li></ul>Vladimir Putin's ongoing war with Ukraine is boosting Russia's economy, the International Monetary Fund said.In an update to its <a target="_blank" href="https://mediacenter.imf.org/news/imf-world-economic-outlook-january-update/s/23d478e1-994f-41c4-b428-879d0e0e68ef">World Economic Outlook</a> issued Tuesday, the IMF raised its 2024 growth forecast for Russia from 1.1% to 2.6%. That's the biggest increase it made for any country.The IMF flagged Russia's <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-economy-defense-military-war-spending-drains-resources-other-sectors-2024-1">high military spending</a> as one factor powering growth. Moscow has allocated nearly a third of its 2024 budget to defense, up from just 14% in 2021 — the year before it invaded Ukraine.Russia's tight labor market has also helped boost the economy by pushing up wages and consumer spending, according to the IMF. The unemployment rate dropped to a record low of under 3% last year, with many workers emigrating or fighting on the front line in Ukraine.The IMF's upgrade comes at a time amid rising scrutiny about sanctions against Russia. Moscow has found ways to evade the G7 and EU's <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/researchers-say-oil-price-cap-imposed-russia-didnt-exactly-work-2023-2">$60-a-barrel oil price cap</a> and sold its crude to new buyers such as <a target="_blank" href="https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/half-russias-2023-oil-petroleum-exports-went-china-russias-novak-2023-12-27/">China and India</a> instead."Russia has been living under a sanctions regime for quite a long time, for decades, so we have sufficiently adapted to it," Kremlin's spokesman <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-adapted-sanctions-not-scared-more-ukraine-war-kremlin-peskov-2023-10">Dmitry Peskov</a> said in October.The IMF also lifted its forecasts for the US, China, India and Brazil as it upped its 2024 global growth target from 2.9% to 3.1%. Its cheerier outlook comes after a year where the US managed to dodge a <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-recession-predictions-outlook-fed-robert-kaplan-economy-growth-gdp-2023-12">recession</a> and inflation started to cool after central banks aggressively raised interest rates to clamp down on soaring prices."The global economy has been surprisingly resilient … the likelihood of a hard economic landing has decreased due to faster disinflation and steady growth," said IMF chief economist Pierre-Olivier Gourrinchas.

Vladimir Putin's war with Ukraine is boosting Russia's economy, IMF says

New Delhi [<keyword id="19895063" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="india" source="keywords">India</keyword>], February 28 (<keyword id="19904948" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="ani" source="keywords">ANI</keyword>): The State Bank of India's Economic Research Department has released its analysis projecting the GDP growth for the third quarter of the financial year 2023-24. According to their report, the GDP growth is likely to be at 6.8 per cent, based on an unchanged base, but could potentially hit 7 per cent due to expected downward revisions in the estimates for Q3 FY23. As per a report by <keyword id="20407500" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="soumya-kanti-ghosh" source="keywords">Soumya Kanti Ghosh</keyword>, Group Chief Economic Adviser, SBI, the global economic landscape, as outlined in the report, presents a mixed picture with several significant developments impacting the trajectory. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has upgraded its global growth forecast to 3.1 per cent in 2024 and 3.2 per cent in 2025, indicating a brighter outlook. However, challenges persist, with countries like the UK and Japan slipping into recession, alongside concerns over the German economy. Additionally, China's marked slowdown, driven by deflationary concerns and declining industrial profits, adds further complexity to the global scenario. In contrast, India's domestic economic indicators show signs of resilience and optimism. Consumer confidence has strengthened, supported by positive sentiments regarding the economic situation and employment conditions. Various enterprise surveys also reflect strong business optimism. The Composite Leading Indicator (CLI) Index, comprising 41 leading indicators across sectors, suggests a slight moderation in economic activity in Q3 FY24. Based on this data, the SBI Economic Research Department estimates GDP growth in the range of 6.7-6.9 per cent, with a Gross Value Added (GVA) growth of 6.6 per cent. Corporate India continues to exhibit robust performance, driven by accelerating consumption patterns across urban and rural areas. Corporate results for Q3FY24 indicate significant growth in <keyword id="20140796" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="ebidta" source="keywords">EBIDTA</keyword> and PAT (Profit After Tax), with a notable improvement in margins. Corporate GVA, measured by EBIDTA plus employee expenses, recorded strong growth compared to the previous year. The agricultural sector, however, faces some challenges, with a decline in the estimated production of major Kharif crops for 2023-24 compared to FY23. While the sowing season for Rabi crops suggests a slight increase in overall acreage, concerns arise over the decline in the sown area under cereals. Despite these challenges, the inland fish production has shown rapid growth, reaching 131.13 lakh tonnes in 2022-23. The fisheries sector's contribution to the national GVA and agricultural GVA indicates potential support for the Agri &amp; Allied sector's growth in FY24. (ANI)

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SBI economists see Q2 GDP growth slowing down to 6.5%; FY25 growth to be closer to 7%

BI India Bureau

India to remain fastest growing major economy in 2024-25, says CEA Nageswaran

ANI

Economic Survey 2024: GDP grew by 8.2%, to sustain 7%+ growth momentum, fiscal deficit down to 6.4% of GDP

Ira Alok Puranik

Russia will grow faster than the US and all other advanced economies this year, the IMF says

Yuheng Zhan

Vladimir Putin's war with Ukraine is boosting Russia's economy, IMF says

George Glover

SBI Eco Research forecasts Q3 FY24 GDP growth at 6.8% amid global complexities

ANI

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