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<ul><li>The hospitality sector saw 23 <keyword id="142429" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="credit-rating" source="Orion">credit rating</keyword> upgrades, with no downgrades at all in FY24, says ICRA.</li><li>Auto, financial sector, power, realty and transport infrastructure also saw several upgrades.</li><li>Agriculture, chemicals, construction and apparel sectors saw the most downgrades. </li></ul> The fiscal year of FY24 continued the ‘upgrade momentum’ that was set into motion in FY22, said the credit rating agency ICRA. Two entities had been upgraded for every entity downgraded during the year, the rating agency said in a report released on Monday. The biggest winner for the year is the hospitality sector — with 23 upgrades and an upgrade rate of 37%. And, there were no downgrades at all. ICRA maintains a positive outlook on the Hospitality sector for FY2025 as well. The other sectors which saw the most number of upgrades include auto and auto components, finance, power, realty and transport infrastructure. On the other hand, sectors which saw the most number of downgrades are — agricultural food and other products, chemicals and petrochemicals, construction, textiles and apparel. Company-specific factors While entities in aviation, hospitality, auto &amp; auto components, and banks gained from the industry tailwinds in FY24 – that’s not the only factor behind most upgrades. “A large majority of rating upgrades were driven by company-specific factors such as expansion in market share or order book, improvement in the cost structure, reduction in project risk, or fresh equity infusion that strengthened the balance sheet,” says K Ravichandran, chief rating officer at ICRA said. Overall, credit profiles continued to improve last year. The number of instances of defaults dipped to five in FY24, compared with 22 in FY23 and 42 in FY22. “Corporate India has shown a high resilience to withstanding the rise in borrowing costs over the past two years and is seen to have the capacity to bear the current level of interest rates before the rate cut cycle likely begins in the latter part of the year,” said Ravichandran. Banks &amp; NBFC asset profiles at decadal best The financial sector has also been one of the best-performing sectors for the year in terms of credit profile. It saw an upgrade rate of 13%, next only to auto. Its downgrade ratio is also low at 2%. “The asset quality of banks and NBFCs has also been at its decadal best with the profitability and the capitalisation indicators expected to remain healthy in the near term. The series of proactive actions taken by the regulators (RBI and SEBI) in recent years would work to further strengthen the financial system and the capital markets,” opines Ravichandran. He, however, added that the key downside factors that could derail progress in multiple sectors are the monsoons and complicated geopolitical landscape. Two wars, the Red Sea crisis and sluggish exports had been weighing on India in FY24. “Yet, these did not feel heavier as domestic consumption demand across several sectors, government spending on public infrastructure, and healthy balance sheets lent support to the credit profiles of entities,” says ICRA. In FY25, the rating agency expects India’s GDP to expand by 6.5%, with the average retail inflation estimated to be moderate at 4.6%.

Two entities upgraded for every downgrade in FY24, hospitality sector records 23 upgrades: ICRA

In a rather dampened <keyword id="19915531" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="forecast" source="keywords">forecast</keyword> for the Indian economy, <keyword id="19908266" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="ICRA" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="ICRA" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="ICRA">ICRA</keyword> has forecast a sharp <keyword id="20637625" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="slowdown" source="keywords">slowdown</keyword> in India's <keyword id="19972825" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="GDP-growth" source="keywords">GDP growth</keyword>. The credit rating agency has projected a year-on-year expansion of 6.0% in <keyword id="22106354" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Q1-FY2025" source="keywords">Q1 FY2025</keyword> — the lowest in the last six quarters. In Q4 FY2024, India recorded an impressive 7.8%. The Reserve Bank of India had expected the growth momentum to continue this financial year as well. Earlier this month, the RBI governor had projected a 7.1% growth in Q1, while the growth rate for the entire financial year FY2024-25 was projected to be at 7.2%. The central bank had attributed this potential robust growth to improved agricultural activity, sustained buoyancy in services activity, healthy balance sheets of banks and corporates, thrust on capex by the government, visible signs of pick up in private investment, and improving prospects of global trade. However, RBI’s growth projections for this financial year were slightly moderated due to lower-than-anticipated corporate profitability, general government expenditure, and core industries output. As per ICRA, the sharp drop in GDP growth is primarily due to parliamentary elections and a contraction in government capital expenditure weakening urban consumer confidence. Another main cause could be the weakening urban consumer confidence, which reported a surprising downtick in the May and July 2024 rounds of the Central Bank’s Consumer Confidence Survey. “The lingering impact of last year’s unfavourable monsoon and an uneven start to the 2024 monsoon prevented a broader improvement in rural sentiment. Lower volume growth combined with diminishing gains from commodity prices weighed upon the profitability of some of the industrial sectors. The heat wave also affected footfalls in various service sectors, even as it provided a significant boost to electricity demand,” said Aditi Nayar, Chief Economist at ICRA. Despite the Q1 slowdown, ICRA expects economic activity to pick up in the latter half of FY2025, projecting an overall GDP growth of 6.8% for the full year, with a potential to exceed 7% in the second half. The agency expects decelerated growth in Gross Value Added (GVA) as well, easing to 5.7% in Q1 FY2025 from 6.3% in the previous quarter. This slowdown is primarily attributed to a decline in industrial growth, which is predicted to moderate to 6.4% from 8.4%, along with slight reductions in the services sector's growth and a modest improvement in agricultural GVA. The difference between GDP and GVA growth is expected to narrow to around 30 basis points (bps) in Q1 FY2025, down from 148 bps in the previous quarter, due to lower growth in net indirect taxes amid a rise in government subsidies. ICRA's analysis indicates that industrial GVA growth is likely to moderate in Q1 FY2025, with a slowdown in manufacturing and construction offset by growth in electricity, mining, and quarrying. Additionally, a contraction in government and state capital expenditure, along with a significant drop in new project announcements, has contributed to the overall slowdown. Manufacturing profit margins have also been under pressure due to rising global commodity prices and narrowing deflation in input costs, which, combined with slower growth in manufacturing output, suggests a deceleration in manufacturing GVA growth. In the agricultural sector, GVA growth is projected to be modest at 1.0% in Q1 FY2025, amidst declining output from most rabi and summer crops and a deficient rainfall in June 2024. With growing concerns around inflation and unemployment in India and across the world, the latest forecast could further fuel the fears around recession and slowdown in major economies. However, a much clearer picture will emerge with the actual quarterly estimates of GDP for Q1 from the National Statistical Office (NSO) next week. SEE ALSO: <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/stock-market/news/digital-initiatives-to-triple-indian-retail-borrowing-to-usd-2-5-trillion-by-2030-sp-global/articleshow/112263945.cms" data-type="tilCustomLink" target="_blank">Digital initiatives to triple Indian retail borrowing to USD 2.5 trillion by 2030: S&amp;P Global</a>

ICRA forecasts slowdown in India's economy: GDP growth expected to hit six-quarter low in Q1 FY2025

New Delhi, <keyword id="20748494" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="domestic-commercial-vehicle" source="keywords">Domestic Commercial Vehicle</keyword> (CV) volumes are expected to dip 4-7 per cent year-on-year next fiscal with high base effect kicking in, rating agency <keyword id="19908266" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="icra" source="keywords">Icra</keyword> said on Tuesday. The volumes are expected to remain muted through the January-March quarter on account of a perceived pause in the infrastructural activities as the model code of conduct kicks in ahead of the general elections. "Icra estimates the domestic CV industry volumes to register 2-5 per cent year-on-year growth in volumes in FY24. Subsequently, the industry's sharp <keyword id="20748180" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="upcycle" source="keywords">upcycle</keyword> is expected to plateau in FY25, with a decline of 4-7 per cent in volumes," the rating agency stated. <keyword id="20277974" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="icra-ratings" source="keywords">Icra Ratings</keyword> Vice President &amp; Co-Group Head <keyword id="20322347" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="kinjal-shah" source="keywords">Kinjal Shah</keyword> said he expects the long-term demand for CVs to remain intact. The continued focus on infrastructure capex, emphasis on private participation in infrastructure, construction, defence and manufacturing activities would remain a long-term positive for the CV industry, he said. "However, in the near term, Icra expects the volumes to plateau on a high base, amid the transient moderation in economic activity in some sectors with the onset of the general elections," he added. Overall, the domestic CV industry's ability to scale previous peaks hinges on sustenance of the macro-economic environment, improvement in infrastructure activity and increased demand for last mile transportation, Icra stated.

Domestic commercial vehicle industry to see 4-7% dip in volumes next fiscal: Icra

Mumbai: The Reserve Bank is unlikely to cut the benchmark <keyword id="20071327" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="interest-rate" source="keywords">interest rate</keyword> in its forthcoming bi-monthly monetary policy review later in the week as <keyword id="19999652" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="retail-inflation" source="keywords">retail inflation</keyword> is still a cause of concern, and there is a possibility of the Middle East crisis deteriorating further, impacting crude oil and commodity prices, say experts. Earlier this month, the government reconstituted the Reserve Bank's rate-setting panel -- <keyword id="19913109" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Monetary-Policy-Committee" source="keywords">Monetary Policy Committee</keyword> (MPC). The reconstituted panel, with three newly appointed external members, will commence its maiden meeting on Monday. MPC Chairman RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das will reveal the outcome of the three-day discussion on Wednesday (October 9). The <keyword id="19899810" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="Reserve-Bank-of-India" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="Reserve Bank of India" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="Reserve Bank of India">Reserve Bank of India</keyword> (RBI) has kept the repo or short-term lending rate unchanged at 6.5 per cent since February 2023, and experts think some easing could only be possible in December. The government has tasked the central bank to ensure that Consumer Price Index (CPI) based retail inflation remains at 4 per cent with a margin of 2 per cent on either side. In the current context, experts feel that the RBI may not follow the US Federal Reserve, which lowered the benchmark rates by 50 basis points, and the central banks of some developed nations, which have reduced the interest rates. "We do not expect any change in the <keyword id="20094323" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="repo-rate" source="keywords">repo rate</keyword> or stance by MPC. The reason is that inflation for September and October will be above 5 per cent, and the present low inflation is due to the base effect. Besides, core inflation is inching upwards," said Madan Sabnavis, Chief Economist, Bank of Baroda. Further, the recent Iran-Israel imbroglio can intensify, and there is uncertainty here, he said. "Hence, the status quo is the most likely option even for new members. Inflation forecast may be lowered by 10-20 bps and no change in GDP forecast likely," said Sabnavis. The central bank last hiked the repo rate to 6.5 per cent in February 2023 and since then, it has held the rate at the same level. Icra Chief Economist Aditi Nayar said that given the undershooting in the initial first quarter GDP growth relative to the MPC's forecast and the likely sizeable undershooting in the second quarter CPI inflation print as well, "we believe a stance change to neutral may be appropriate in the October 2024 policy review". This could be followed by a shallow rate-cutting cycle of 25 bps each in December 2024 and February 2025, she added. "The abundant monsoon offers some insurance for crop inflation. The impact of global political developments and geopolitical uncertainty on the growth inflation dynamics remains a risk," Nayar added. An HSBC report said three developments stand out -- softer growth numbers have trickled in recently, inflation has been falling, and the external environment has moved from rate hikes to cuts. "We believe the RBI doesn't gain from waiting any longer. We think it will change its stance from a hawkish 'withdrawal of accommodation' to 'neutral' in the upcoming 9 October policy meeting, followed by repo rate cuts of 25 bps each in the December and February meetings, taking the repo rate to 6 per cent," the report said. The RBI kept the repo rate unchanged at 6.5 per cent in its August bi-monthly review amid risks from higher food inflation. This was the ninth consecutive MPC meeting, which decided to maintain the status quo on the rate front. Pradeep Aggarwal, founder and chairman, Signature Global (India) Limited, said while the real estate industry, developer community, and homebuyers are hoping for an interest rate cut in the upcoming monetary policy review, the RBI is likely to hold on to the interest rate cuts for the tenth consecutive time. "The apex bank still seems uncomfortable with the overall retail inflation scenario, particularly food inflation. As such, it is expected to maintain the status quo. The recent interest rate cut by the US Federal Reserve has ignited similar hopes even in India, but the domestic scenario is very different," he added. SBM Bank India Head Treasury Mandar Pitale believed that the MPC has persistently advocated a restrictive policy until inflation aligns durably towards the 4 per cent target. "With the unfavourable base effect taking the next couple of CPI prints near 5 per cent plus or minus, it will pose a major challenge for MPC to start easing from the October meeting," Pitale said, adding that the MPC is also expected to deliberate upon the global factors like growth-inflation behaviour in developed economies. The government has appointed Ram Singh, Saugata Bhattacharya, and Nagesh Kumar as external members of the MPC. They have replaced Ashima Goyal, Shashanka Bhide, and Jayanth R Varma. Apart from the Governor, the other internal members are the RBI Deputy Governor in charge of monetary policy Michael Debabrata Patra and the Executive Director monetary policy department of RBI Rajiv Ranjan. In an off-cycle meeting in May 2022, the MPC raised the policy rate by 40 basis points and it was followed by rate hikes of varying sizes, in the subsequent meetings till February 2023. The repo rate was raised by 250 basis points cumulatively between May 2022 and February 2023.

Status-quo on interest rate likely, say experts ahead of RBI's policy review

Indian <keyword id="34984" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="airline" source="Orion">airline</keyword> <keyword id="6354887" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="industry" source="Orion">industry</keyword> is expecting to prune its <keyword id="9317682" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="net-losses" source="Orion">net losses</keyword> to Rs 3,000-5,000 crore in this fiscal from an estimated Rs 17,000-17,500 crore in FY2023 on the back of improved yields and stable cost environment, credit ratings agency <keyword id="6354972" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="icra" source="Orion">ICRA</keyword> said on Tuesday. At the same time, ICRA also estimated that domestic air passenger traffic will expand by 8-13 per cent each in FY2024 and FY2025. The <keyword id="164127" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="rating-agency" source="Orion">rating agency</keyword> has also maintained its stable outlook on the industry in view of healthy passenger traffic growth, improved yields and a stable cost environment. Building on the fast-paced recovery in FY2023, ICRA at a webinar on Tuesday said it is expecting the domestic air passenger traffic to grow by 8-13 per cent in the ongoing financial year, thereby reaching 150-155 million and surpassing the pre-Covid levels of 141.2 million seen in FY2020. The Industry's net loss (is expected) to shrink to Rs 30-50 billion in FY2024 from an estimated Rs 170-175 billion in FY2023, aided by improved yields and stable cost environment, ICRA said. "The air passenger traffic momentum witnessed in the current fiscal is expected to continue in FY2025, though further expansion in yields from the current levels may be limited. Thus, the industry is estimated to report a similar net loss of ~Rs. 30-50 billion in FY2025 as well," said Suprio Banerjee, Vice President &amp; Sector Head, Corporate Ratings, ICRA Limited. The momentum in air passenger traffic growth is expected to continue in FY2025 as well with a similar estimated year-on-year growth, aided by rising demand for air travel and improving airport infrastructure, ICRA said. During the first eight months of this fiscal, domestic air passenger traffic stood at 100.7 million, witnessing a 17 per cent year-on-year growth, and 5 per cent higher than the pre-Covid levels (8M FY2020) of 95.7 million. Further, the international passenger traffic for Indian carriers, at 23.9 million in FY2023, surpassed the pre-Covid levels, although it trailed the peak levels of 25.9 million in FY2019, ICRA said, adding the same is expected to cross this level in the current fiscal, with an estimated 25-27 million passengers. Moreover, the airlines witnessed better pricing power, as reflected in improved yields and in the spread between revenue per available seat kilometre and cost per available seat kilometre (RASK-CASK) for the airlines, it said. While capacity addition for the industry will continue with the total pending aircraft deliveries of around 1,500, supply chain issues at the aircraft OEMs also mean that the addition could be gradual, ICRA said. Also, a large part of these is towards replacement of old aircraft with new fuel-efficient ones, and with the expected continued growth in passenger traffic, ICRA expects the demand-supply balance to be maintained in the medium-term. Furthermore, a sizeable part of the fleet addition by airlines will also be meant for expanding international operations, it said and added that in FY2023, the share of Indian carriers in international traffic (to and from India) stood at around 42 per cent. This offers adequate growth potential for Indian carriers to gain traction in international traffic over the medium term, the rating agency noted. However, despite a healthy recovery in passenger traffic and improvement in yields, the movement of the latter will remain monitorable amidst elevated ATF prices and depreciation of the Indian Rupee vis-a-vis the US Dollar compared to pre-Covid levels, both of which have a major bearing on the airlines' cost structure, the rating agency noted. The average ATF (aviation turbine fuel) prices stood at Rs 103,189/KL in 9M FY2024, which were 59 per cent higher compared to an average of Rs 64,715/KL during FY2020, albeit a decline of 17 per cent compared to Rs 121,013 /KL in FY2023, it observed. Fuel accounts for 30-40 per cent of the airlines' expenses, while around 35-50 per cent of the airlines' operating expenses 'including aircraft lease payments, fuel expenses, and a significant portion of aircraft and engine maintenance expenses ' are denominated in US dollar terms. "More recently, the Indian aviation industry has been facing significant supply chain issues, resulting in around 20-22 per cent of the total fleet being on the ground currently. "The recent issue related to powder-coating related concerns in engines manufactured by Pratt &amp; Whitney (P&amp;W) is expected to lead to additional aircraft to be grounded by Q4 FY2024 of this fiscal 'amounting to approximately 22-24 per cent of the industry capacity," said Banerjee. This will result in high operating expenses towards cost of grounding, increase in lease rentals due to additional aircraft being taken on lease to offset the grounded capacity, along with increasing lease rates and lower fuel efficiency, which adversely impact the airline's cost structure, and thus overall cash flow generation," he added.

Indian airlines likely to prune losses to Rs 3,000-5,000 cr this fiscal: ICRA

The Reserve Bank is unlikely to ease the benchmark policy rate from 6.5% during 2024, given the persisting uncertainty over <keyword id="19999654" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="food-inflation" source="keywords">food inflation</keyword>, State Bank of India (<keyword id="19898108" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="SBI" source="keywords">SBI</keyword>) chairman C S Setty has recently said. The US Federal Reserve's first cut in <keyword id="20071327" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="interest-rate" source="keywords">interest rate</keyword>s in more than four years happened today, triggering central banks in other economies to follow suit. The Fed trimmed the interest rates by 50 basis point trim to its target interest rate range to 4.75-5%. "On the rate front, a lot of central banks are taking independent calls. While Fed rate cut would influence everyone, <keyword id="19899808" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="RBI" source="keywords">RBI</keyword> would be mindful of the food inflation before taking a call on interest rate cut," Setty, who recently took over the reins of the bank, was noted as saying. "Our view is also that the rate cut during the current calendar year may not happen. Probably, we may have to wait for Q4 (January-March 2025) unless there is a good improvement in terms of food inflation," he added. Notably, RBIs <keyword id="19913109" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="Monetary-Policy-Committee" source="keywords">Monetary Policy Committee</keyword> (MPC), headed by RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das is scheduled to meet next month, between October 7-9 and take a call on interest rate. The committee will largely take <keyword id="19999652" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="retail-inflation" source="keywords">retail inflation</keyword>, which inched to 3.65% in August, up from 3.54% in July, into account for making rate-related decisions On the other hand, India's wholesale price index (WPI) eased to 1.31% on an annual basis, which is also a 4-month low, down from 2.04% in July. The data, released recently by the government, also highlighted the stickiness of food price inflation, which stood largely undeterred at 3.11% in August, as compared to 3.45% in July. Although WPI rates do not directly impact RBIs decision making, it does affect the retail inflation rates, although it takes time to reflect the same. Says Rahul Agrawal, Senior Economist at ICRA Ltd, “The <keyword id="20198768" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="WPI-inflation" source="keywords">WPI inflation</keyword> eased to a four-month low in August 2024, with the fuel and power, core (non-food manufacturing), and crude petroleum and natural gas sub-groups together pulling down the headline WPI print by as much as 70 bps in the month vis-à-vis July 2024. The core WPI inflation dipped to 0.7% in August 2024 from 1.2% in July 2024, amidst a continued softening in global commodity prices. "While prices of most food items have eased further on a month-on-month basis in September 2024, an adverse base would push up the YoY inflation prints for the primary food articles category significantly in the ongoing month, exerting upward pressure to the headline WPI inflation print for September 2024", said Agrawal. The price of the Indian basket of crude oil has averaged 6.0% lower in September 2024 on a sequential basis, touching the lowest levels in 33 months, which would also help contain the uptick in the headline WPI inflation print in the month. We anticipate WPI to touch the 2.0% in September 2024 from 1.3% in August 2024", he continued. Amongst the food articles whose prices dipped during the month were cereals (8.44%), paddy (9.12%), pulses (18.57%) and onions (65.75%), it did little to tame inflation, which continued to stay put in double digits. On the other hand, prices of potato (77.96%) and fruits (16.7%) inched up. The dip in WPI was largely led by slowdown in prices of manufactured food products (3.61%), beverages (1.9%), pharmaceuticals (1.97%) and petrol (4.23%). "While there may not be a one-to-one correspondence between the WPI and the CPI data because of the items, size, number, and relative weights assigned, the CPI data will also down-trend in sync with the RBI’s medium-term target of 4 % for the second time in nearly five years. However high food prices will induce the RBI to be wary", notes Manoranjan Sharma, Chief Economist, Infomerics Ratings.

RBI unlikely to cut interest rate in 2024, food inflation to be deciding factor, says SBI chief Setty

<ul><li>Incremental credit growth expected to remain robust at Rs. 16.5-18.0 trillion in FY2024, despite marginal slowdown.</li><li>NIMs expected to compress by 20-25 bps, though benign credit costs and lower operating expenses to provide support.</li><li>Asset quality is likely to remain benign as GNPAs and NNPAs are expected to decline further by March 2024.</li></ul> Analysts may be worried about rising stress in the retail assets of banks, but <keyword id="6354972" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="icra" source="Orion">ICRA</keyword> is of the view that the sector is resilient and that credit growth is expected to remain strong. Given that deposits have been repriced after the <keyword id="6375120" type="General" weightage="50" keywordseo="monetary-policy-committee" source="Orion">Monetary Policy Committee</keyword> of the <keyword id="6354335" type="General" weightage="50" keywordseo="reserve-bank-of-india" source="Orion">Reserve Bank of India</keyword> delivered six interest rates hikes. However, ICRA does not expect this to impact profitability of the sector negatively. In a note, the agency said: “While the upward repricing of the deposit base is likely to lead to a moderation in the interest margin, benign asset quality pressures would support lower credit costs and earnings.” Accordingly, in ICRA’s view, the banking sector is expected to continue generating sufficient internal capital to largely meet its growth needs while improving the capital cushions. The retail segment is likely to remain the key contributor to credit growth although the sustainability of asset quality hinges on macroeconomic conditions remaining favourable. ICRA expects the headline metrics of the banking sector to remain on an improving trajectory on the back of controlled net additions (net of recoveries and upgrades) to non-performing advances (NPAs) and reasonably strong credit growth. Accordingly, ICRA expects the gross NPAs (GNPAs) and net NPAs (NNPAs) to decline to 2.8-3.0% and 0.8-0.9%, respectively, by March 2024 from 3.96% and 0.97%, respectively, as on March 31, 2023, which would remain the best in more than a decade. Notwithstanding this, ICRA remains cautious about the impact of macroeconomic shocks on asset quality, if these were to materialise. Commenting further Anil Gupta, Senior Vice President &amp; Co-Group Head, ICRA said: “Credit growth remains robust despite some moderation. Even at the anticipated pace of growth for FY2024, incremental credit expansion would be the second highest ever at Rs 16.5-18.0 trillion, next only to the record level of Rs 18.2 trillion (+15.4%) last year.” Credit costs are estimated to remain at 1.0% of advances in FY2024, in line with FY2023. This should allow banks to comfortably withstand a compression of 20-25 bps in the interest margins, which would lead to a mild moderation in the return on assets (RoA) to 1.0% in FY2024 from 1.1% in FY2023. At these levels, the RoE would remain healthy at 13.0-13.1% in FY2024 against 13.8% in FY2023. Furthermore, supported by internal capital generation and lower <keyword id="4105639" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="NNPA" source="Orion">NNPA</keyword> levels, the capitalisation and solvency profiles of private and public sector banks would remain comfortable. ICRA projects the Tier-I capital of the banking sector at 14.6-14.7% (14.4% as of March 2023) and an improvement in the solvency levels to 7% (8% as of March 2023) by March 2024. Over the last decade, credit growth in the retail segment remained buoyant and a key driver of overall credit expansion. As retail growth outpaced other segments, its share in bank credit rose to 32% as on March 31, 2023 from 18% in March 2013. Moreover, the corporate book witnessed underperformance in recent years, including weaker asset quality levels and muted expansion, resulting in slower growth trends relative to the retail segment. The Covid-19 pandemic was a stress test event on the asset quality across segments and defaults and losses were relatively higher in the unsecured segments. With more insight on the borrowers’ repayment behaviour during the pandemic, lenders can take better decisions while growing unsecured retail loans. Moreover, the retail segment continued to report resilience despite volatile macro-economic conditions, including rising interest rates and surging inflation, which impacted disposable income. Gupta added: “Even as the retail segment has performed well, the material weakening of macro-economic conditions could exert pressure on the debt-servicing abilities of borrowers and we remain watchful of its impact on the asset quality of lenders. Nonetheless, banks have strong operating profits and capital positions. Consequently, they are much better placed at present for navigating through such a scenario.”

Interest rate hikes unlikely to have negative impact on earnings of banking sector: ICRA

Mumbai, The domestic air passenger traffic is expected to surpass the pre-Covid levels of 141.2 million and reach 150-155 million this fiscal, registering an estimated growth of 8-13 per cent, credit ratings agency <keyword id="19908266" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="icra" source="keywords">Icra</keyword> said on Wednesday. Icra also projected a significant reduction in industry's net loss for the next two fiscals and was also of the view that supply-chain challenges and engine failure issues may remain near-term headwinds. Icra maintains a "stable" outlook on the domestic aviation industry, amidst the continued recovery in domestic and international air passenger traffic, and relatively stable cost environment, it said. The momentum in traffic growth is expected to continue in FY2025 as well, with a similar estimated year-on-year growth, aided by rising demand for both leisure and business travel and improving airport infrastructure, it said. The international passenger traffic for Indian carriers surpassed the pre-Covid levels in FY2023, although it trailed the peak levels of 25.9 million witnessed in FY2019, according to Icra. It is expected to cross this level in the current fiscal, with an estimated 25-27 million passengers, representing a <keyword id="19921444" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="yoy" source="keywords">YoY</keyword> growth of 7-12 per cent, the ratings agency said, adding the same is expected to further grow by 7-12 per cent to 27-29 million in FY2025. "The industry has witnessed improved pricing power, as reflected in increase in yields and thus the spread between revenue per available seat <keyword id="20544428" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="kilometre" source="keywords">kilometre</keyword>-cost per available seat kilometre (RASK-CASK) for the airlines. "The same is expected to remain favourable, aided by a decline in aviation turbine fuel (ATF) prices and the relatively stable foreign exchange rates," said <keyword id="20849526" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="suprio-banerjee" source="keywords">Suprio Banerjee</keyword>, Vice President and <keyword id="20225498" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="sector-head" source="keywords">Sector Head</keyword> for corporate ratings at Icra. The industry is thus estimated to report a significantly lower net loss of Rs 300-4,000 crore (Rs 30-40 billion) in FY2024 and FY2025 compared to Rs 170-175 billion in FY2023, he added. According to the ratings agency, the ATF prices and indian rupee-US dollar movement have a major bearing on the airlines' cost structure. The average ATF price stood at Rs 103,547/KL in the April-February period of FY2024, which is a YoY decline of 15 per cent compared to Rs 120,978/KL in FY2023, it said. However, this was 60 per cent higher compared to an average of Rs 64,715/KL during FY2020, as per Icra. Fuel accounts for around 30-40 per cent of the airlines' expenses.

Domestic air passenger traffic to surpass pre-Covid levels to reach 150-155 mn this fiscal: Icra

Chennai, Credit rating agency <keyword id="19908266" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="icra" source="keywords">ICRA</keyword> on Wednesday said <keyword id="19895063" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="india" source="keywords">India</keyword>'s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) would grow at 6 per cent in Q3 FY2024 from 7.6 per cent in Q2 FY2024. Further, the Gross Value Added (GVA) growth is estimated to ease to 6 per cent in Q3 FY2024 from 7.4 per cent in Q2 FY2024, driven by the industrial and agriculture sectors, amid an improvement in the services sector. According to ICRA, the anticipated deterioration in the industrial sector growth in Q3 FY2024 is partly attributable to an adverse base effect and a deceleration in volume expansion even as the continued deflation in commodity prices kept profitability of some sectors favourable. Additionally, a mild 0.2 per cent contraction in the total spending of Government of India and 25 state governments (all states except <keyword id="19915575" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="arunachal-pradesh" source="keywords">Arunachal Pradesh</keyword>, <keyword id="19895061" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="goa" source="keywords">Goa</keyword> and Manipur) in Q3 FY2024 is expected to have dulled the GVA growth in the quarter. "Lower volume growth for the industrial sector, flagging momentum in certain indicators of investment activity, a slowdown in Government expenditure and an uneven monsoon are expected to dampen the GDP growth to 6.0 per cent in Q3 FY2024 from 7.6 per cent in Q2 FY2024," <keyword id="20028743" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="aditi-nayar" source="keywords">Aditi Nayar</keyword>, Chief Economist, Head-Research &amp; Outreachs said. ICRA estimates the industrial GVA growth to record a broad-based moderation to 8.8 per cent in Q3 FY2024 from 13.2 per cent in Q2 FY2024, led by all four sub-sectors, namely, manufacturing, electricity, construction and mining and quarrying. ICRA projects manufacturing GVA expansion at a healthy 10 per cent in Q3 FY2024, twice as high as the 4.7 per cent seen in Q1 FY2024, albeit lower than the 13.9 per cent recorded in Q2 FY2024, amid a deceleration in volume growth as reflected in the manufacturing Index of Industrial Production (IIP). Owing to the decline in output across all major kharif crops projected by the First Advance Estimates, ICRA projects the growth in agriculture, forestry, and fishing to dip to a muted 0.5 per cent in Q3 FY2024 from 1.2 per cent in Q2 FY2024. This would be the lowest growth print for the sector since Q4 FY2019 (-0.9 per cent). In contrast to industry and agriculture, ICRA estimates the services GVA YoY growth to rise to 6.5 per cent in Q3 FY2024 from 5.8 per cent in Q2 FY2024, led by trade, hotels, transport, communication and services related to broadcasting.

India's FY24 third quarter GDP growth seen at 6%: ICRA

<ul><li>There is a suggestion to grant tax-free status to annuity income from the <keyword id="20240872" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="national-pension-scheme" source="keywords">National Pension Scheme</keyword> (<keyword id="19919089" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="nps" source="keywords">NPS</keyword>). </li><li>There is a proposal to simplify the capital gains <keyword id="6383566" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="taxation" source="Orion">taxation</keyword> structure by introducing a uniform holding period across domestic equities and <keyword id="6357979" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="mutual-funds" source="Orion">mutual funds</keyword>. </li><li>Providing relief from double taxation on dividends is anticipated to receive positive feedback from the <keyword id="31671" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="markets" source="Orion">markets</keyword>. </li></ul>The FY 2025 budget is around the corner and it is expected that Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman will fulfil some of the wishes of both the industry and the common people. A report by <keyword id="19908266" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="icra" source="keywords">ICRA</keyword> analytics lists down some changes they foresee when it comes to taxation and other investment products. Taxation The persistent call for the removal of the security transaction tax (<keyword id="20204742" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="stt" source="keywords">STT</keyword>) in financial markets has gained momentum in recent years, and as GST collections have risen, this demand has once again become a focal point. The potential elimination of STT is seen as a measure to attract more investors to participate in domestic equity markets. Another significant concern in the taxation landscape is the issue of double taxation on dividends. Under the current system, companies pay taxes on their profits, and simultaneously, the government levies additional taxes on dividends in the hands of shareholders. This results in double taxation on dividends. Addressing this issue by providing relief from double taxation on dividends is anticipated to receive positive feedback from the markets. <keyword id="6354432" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="pension" source="Orion">Pension</keyword> and <keyword id="35450" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="insurance" source="Orion">Insurance</keyword> In the domain of pension and insurance, there is a proposal to raise the minimum pension floor for unorganised sector workers under the Atal Pension Yojana (APY). The rationale behind this proposal is that the current pension amount may not attract enough potential subscribers to enrol in the scheme. Additionally, there is a suggestion to grant tax-free status to annuity income from the National Pension Scheme (NPS). This move is particularly crucial as senior citizens heavily rely on annuity income during their retirement years. Considering the rise in medical expenses and the financial well-being of senior citizens, providing tax-free status to annuity income is seen as a step towards supporting this demographic. Further, proposing a distinct tax deduction for life insurance premiums, separate from Section 80C, could boost the adoption of insurance products, encouraging people to secure their family's financial future through life insurance investments. Furthermore, there is a recommendation for the government to review the 18% Goods and Services Tax (GST) imposed on health insurance policies. Markets In the financial markets, one of the pressing issues is the need for a comprehensive policy on cryptocurrency regulation. With the rising popularity and usage of cryptocurrencies, a regulatory framework is considered essential to ensure orderly and secure participation in the crypto market. Another area of interest is the potential reintroduction of sovereign green bonds in the budget. Sovereign green bonds play a crucial role in addressing the funding requirements for sectors like wind, power, and hydropower, promoting sustainable investments. Additionally, there is speculation about the allocation of a significant capital outlay for an Energy Transition Fund. The focus of this fund would be on new-age fuels such as green hydrogen, ethanol, and other biofuels, aligning with the government's emphasis on energy transition and net-zero objectives. Mutual Funds Within the mutual funds sector, there are several proposals to address taxation-related disparities and encourage a more investor-friendly environment. There is a call for parity in taxation between equity mutual funds and Unit Linked Insurance Plans (ULIPs). Achieving parity between equity Fund of Fund and equity-oriented mutual funds for taxation is also under consideration. Furthermore, there is a proposal to simplify the capital gains taxation structure by introducing a uniform holding period across domestic equities and mutual funds. This move is expected to enhance compliance and streamline the tax treatment for investors. Lastly, there is a suggestion to revisit the tax changes introduced for debt funds last year. The amendment, while creating a level playing field between bank deposits and debt mutual funds, inadvertently affected certain categories of funds. However, a depositor in fixed deposits secures guaranteed returns regardless of fluctuations in interest rates, whereas an investor in debt funds is susceptible to both interest rate fluctuations and credit risk in the event of issuer defaults. Moreover, the elimination of the previous indexation benefit adversely impacted the tax-friendliness of global equity funds, equity fund of funds, gold funds, and hybrid funds with less than 35% equity exposure. Consequently, there is a possibility of revisiting the tax changes to address these issues. This revision aims to address unintended consequences and restore a tax-friendly environment for investors.

Budget 2024 expectations: From removal of security transaction tax to sovereign green bonds

<keyword id="6354387" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="jewellery" source="Orion">Jewellery</keyword> consumption, in terms of value, is expected to grow by 10-12 per cent in this financial year, mainly on account of increase in <keyword id="46002" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="gold-prices" source="Orion">gold prices</keyword>, a report said on Friday. Rating agency <keyword id="6354972" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="icra" source="Orion">Icra</keyword> has revised upward its forecast for the year-on-year (YoY) <keyword id="19910440" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="domestic-jewellery-consumption" source="Orion">domestic jewellery consumption</keyword> growth (in value terms) in FY24 to 10-12 per cent from the earlier estimates of 8-10 per cent, primarily driven by the rise in gold prices. Jewellery consumption is estimated to have risen by more than 15 per cent YoY in the first half of FY24, aided by stable demand during 'Akshaya Tritiya', a festival considered auspicious for buying precious metals, and higher gold prices. However, Icra projects the growth rate to moderate to 6-8 per cent in the second half of this financial year due to sustained tepid rural demand amid persistent <keyword id="22195" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="inflation" source="Orion">inflation</keyword>. After remaining volatile between December 2022 and April 2023, gold prices were relatively stable in the first half of FY24, although up 14 per cent compared to the average prices during the year-ago period, noted the report. The elevated price levels supported revenue expansion of most jewellery retailers in the face of muted volume growth, it said. The ongoing tensions in the Middle East and the evolving global macro-economic environment could keep gold prices elevated in the near term. The spike in gold prices since early October 2023 and persistent inflationary headwinds remain key risks to demand, it stated. "Jewellers of the organised market is projected to record a healthy revenue expansion of 15-18 per cent YoY in FY24 on the back of their planned retail expansions and a gradual shift in consumer preferences towards branded jewellers. The organised jewellery retailers are expected to outperform the industry over the medium term supported by tailwinds from accelerated formalisation of the industry," Icra Vice President and Sector Head Sujoy Saha said. Icra has projected some moderation in FY24 in the operating margins of organised players owing to the front-loaded operating costs for planned store additions and increased advertising expenditure in the face of rising competition. Nevertheless, the benefits of economies of scale are likely to support the operating margins, which are estimated to hover in the range of 7.5-8 per cent in the near to medium term. Despite the projected increase in debt levels to fund the inventory for new stores, the debt protection metrics for the players are estimated to remain comfortable. "The organised jewellers had recommenced their retail expansion in FY23, after a brief hiatus in FY21 and FY22, with the store count estimated to have risen by more than 20 per cent during the year. The momentum is likely to continue over the near to medium term with an estimated increase in store count by 18-20 per cent YoY in FY24, supporting their revenue growth," Saha added.

You Searched For "icra rating" and got 11 results

Two entities upgraded for every downgrade in FY24, hospitality sector records 23 upgrades: ICRA

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Budget 2024 expectations: From removal of security transaction tax to sovereign green bonds

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