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<ul><li><keyword id="46002" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="gold-prices" source="Orion">Gold prices</keyword> have experienced a significant decline in the past month, largely due to the notable increase in US real yields. </li><li>The foreseen trajectory for gold prices encompasses a range of $1,900/oz to $2,000/oz within the initial half of 2024. </li><li>In the past month, Indian gold prices declined by approximately 1.2%. </li></ul>Gold prices have experienced a further decline of around four percent in the past month. This correction can be attributed to a significant increase of approximately 50 basis points observed in the US 10-year real yield, according to the Gold Research Report by ICICI Bank Global Markets. Gold traders have also kept an eye on the US Federal Reserve rate action. A Kotak Securities report says, “COMEX (Commodity Exchange Inc) gold prices plunged for the third consecutive week, as robust US economic data and slightly hawkish Federal Open Market Committee (<keyword id="136502" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="fomc" source="Orion">FOMC</keyword>) meeting minutes reinforced speculation that monetary policymakers may not be done raising interest rates yet.” <cmsannotation type="cmsannotation" annotationid="From ‘hard-landing’ scenario to soft-landing outlook" comment="subhead" text="From ‘hard-landing’ scenario to soft-landing outlook">From ‘hard-landing’ scenario to soft-landing outlook</cmsannotation> According to the ICICI Bank Global Markets report, the upward movement of US nominal and real yields reflects a shift from anticipating a 'hard-landing' scenario for the US economy to a more optimistic 'soft-landing' outlook. “The safe haven metal has been continuously falling over the week, as upbeat economic data improved the conviction that US might avoid a hard landing and thus rates might stay higher for longer,” says Ravindra V Rao, VP-head commodity research, Kotak Securities. This change is driven by the resilience of <keyword id="18519909" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="us-domestic-demand" source="Orion">US domestic demand</keyword>, leading to a positive adjustment in growth forecasts for 2023. Additionally, market response has been influenced by indications from the FOMC that it might consider a 25 basis points rate hike at the November policy meeting, with an intention to maintain higher rates for an extended period. This decision is influenced by tight labour markets and Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation levels that remain above the targeted 2%. However, rao says that gold prices have steadied ahead of this week’s <keyword id="747929" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="jackson-hole" source="Orion">Jackson Hole</keyword> symposium in Wyoming and Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell will deliver a talk on the economic outlook on 25th August. <cmsannotation type="cmsannotation" annotationid="subhead" text="Gold price outlook"><keyword id="1688476" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="gold-price-outlook" source="Orion">Gold price outlook</keyword></cmsannotation> Over the remaining course of 2023, a bearish trading environment is anticipated for gold prices, given the unlikely prospect of substantial declines in both US real and nominal yields. Analysts at ICICI Bank Global Markets have revised the projection for gold prices subsequently downward, indicating a trading range spanning from $1850/oz to $1950/oz, with a potential downside of $1800/oz throughout 2023. As the transition to 2024 approaches, the potential for an emerging uptrend in gold prices becomes contingent on the expectation that the delayed impact of US monetary tightening will induce a weakening effect on US growth. Such a scenario may result in a neutral stance from the FOMC regarding the outlook for monetary policy. Not excluding the possibility, the FOMC could initiate a rate-cutting cycle from Q2 2024, potentially leading to decreased US yields and an increased appetite for gold. Consequently, the foreseen trajectory for gold prices encompasses a range of $1900/oz to $2000/oz within the initial half of 2024. Additionally, an upswing in interest from central bank gold acquisitions might contribute to driving prices upward in the medium-term. <cmsannotation type="cmsannotation" annotationid="Indian gold view" comment="subhead" text="Indian gold view">Indian gold view</cmsannotation> In the past month, local gold prices declined by approximately 1.2%, aligning with global market movements; however, a strengthening USD/INR exchange rate moderated the extent of the drop. Importantly, gold imports surged notably, reaching 89 tonnes in July 2023 compared to 63 tonnes in June 2023. This increase translated to a higher import value of $5.0 billion in July 2023 compared to $3.7 billion in June 2023. This upward trend in imports mirrors robust domestic demand. Anticipated import patterns suggest a steady trend from August to September, followed by an increase in October and November due to the festive season.

Gold prices likely to stay muted for the rest of 2023 at least

<ul><li><keyword id="6653" type="CITY" weightage="20" keywordseo="ICICI-bank">ICICI Bank</keyword>’s share price is up 6% as the stock market tips its hat to the bank’s highest-ever net profit of over ₹4,200 crore at the end of September. </li><li>The bank announced its second-quarter results on Saturday with an optimistic note of the Indian economy getting back on track. </li><li>Mortgage disbursements beat the pre-COVID level to hit an all-time high in September. </li></ul> The markets are cheering for ICICI Bank with its share price up 6% after it reported its highest-ever quarterly net profit of ₹4,250 billion on Saturday, October 31. That’s 6.5 times higher than what the bank’s profit was a year ago in the same quarter. <div type="image" title="ICICI Bank share price since July" msid="78992367" hostid="261" caption="&amp;lt;p&amp;gt;ICICI Bank share price since July&amp;lt;/p&amp;gt;"></div> “We have been focused on risk-calibrated granular growth that has been there for the past couple of years has helped us grow the underlying profits, that’s the reason for the after tax number for the quarter,” said ICICI Bank CFO Rakesh Jha during the second-quarter earnings call. ICICI Bank is one of the few banks in the Indian market that is optimistic about how the future will play out. While its peers laid in cautious commentary and guarded predictions of the future, ICICI Bank was clear in its stance that the Indian economy is getting back on its feet during the second-quarter earnings call. However, ICICI Bank’s numbers weren’t solely based on the turnaround of the Indian economy — the sale of its stake in ICICI Securities worth ₹305 crore helped. According to the bank, it has seen credit card spends have returned to 85% of pre-COVID levels. Mortgage disbursements, on the other hand, beat pre-COVID levels to reach an all-time high in September. Auto loan disbursements and disbursements across ICICI Bank’s rural portfolio also exceeded pre-COVID levels at the end of September. The management believes that pandemics are also short-term, so even COVID-19 will eventually blow over. Although there’s no vaccine on the market yet, people are getting used to going back to work with the relevant precautions in place, which means more business activity —- which, in turn, is good news for the bank. Even though it hasn’t had to use any of its COVID-related provisions yet, ICICI Bank is still keeping ₹8,772 crore in its coffers to cushion its balance sheet.

ICICI Bank surges 6% after it posts six-fold jump in net profit at over ₹4,200 crore

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Gold prices likely to stay muted for the rest of 2023 at least

Anagh Pal

ICICI Bank surges 6% after it posts six-fold jump in net profit at over ₹4,200 crore

Prabhjote Gill

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