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Imagine a bustling jewellery market teeming with diamonds and gold. Amidst this glittering chaos, a small stall is trying to sell handcrafted gemstones. Even as newer and shinier outlets keep cropping up, all vying for attention, this gemstone store offers some of the oldest yet valuable jewels at a discount. Though they lack immediate sparkle, these rare gems reveal their value to the discerning buyer. This is how South Korea appears for many experts in global capital markets: a trove of undervalued gems, overshadowed by brighter, more aggressively marketed investment options. This undervaluation, known as the "<keyword id="24399183" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="korean-discount" source="keywords">Korean Discount</keyword>," reflects how South Korean companies are priced much lower than their global peers despite robust fundamentals — strong financial performance and consistent profitability. Contributing factors are many, ranging from opaque governance structures to geopolitical risks. But the fact stays, if you are a seasoned conglomerate listed in South Korea, you are likely undervalued. <keyword id="19906087" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="hyundai" source="keywords">Hyundai</keyword> Motor India Ltd. (HMIL), a subsidiary of the Korean giant Hyundai Motor Company (HMC), recently sought to escape this valuation trap by listing in India, a market where investor optimism commands premium pricing. But its valuation raised many eyebrows! Now that a month and a half has gone by since its listing, time is apt to examine if this gamble paid off. Will <keyword id="93460" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="hyundai-india" source="Orion">Hyundai India</keyword> justify its high valuation? Or does the listing highlight broader questions about the overheated valuation dynamics of Indian markets? A record-breaking <keyword id="19898327" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="ipo" source="keywords">IPO</keyword> but questions remain Hyundai Motor India’s mega Initial Public Offering (IPO), launched in October 2024, broke records by raising ₹27,870 crore, making it India’s largest-ever IPO. The offer was oversubscribed by 2.37 times, highlighting robust demand. But many investors remained sceptical: was this IPO an honest attempt to expand Hyundai’s footprint in India or was it trying to offer a way to cashout for existing investors and promoters? Or perhaps, is it an attempt by the Korean chaebol — a large family-owned business conglomerate — to break free from the aforementioned “Korean Discount”? When shares listed on October 22, these concerns seemingly weighed on the minds of most investors and the stock promptly dipped 5% below the issue price on the day. A tepid grey market performance had already foreshadowed this muted debut in the Indian markets. Now, after almost 35 trading sessions on Indian market, the stock remains almost exactly at price it listed on October 22 at Rs 1820—no gain, no loss. <h3>The gamble of hyper-valuation</h3>Much of this hesitation stemmed from Hyundai’s valuation. On listing, Hyundai was valued at $18 billion, positioning it as one of India’s most valuable automotive companies. However, such high valuations often temper investor enthusiasm, resulting in more cautious short-term outcomes. For most investors, the Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio is the most preferred parameter to gauge if a company is overvalued or undervalued. With a P/E ratio of 26.3, HMIL was priced significantly above the Indian automotive industry average of 24.4. Globally, automotive companies operate with much lower P/E ratios, reflecting mature market conditions and slower growth trajectories. HMIL’s South Korean parent Hyundai Motor Company (HMC) trades at a meagre 3.07, believe it or not! For Indian investors, the high premium hinted at overvaluation despite Hyundai’s strong domestic position. Such stark difference in valuation obviously sparked debates — is the Indian market assigning a premium to Hyundai Motor India’s growth potential, or is it simply reflecting the general exuberance around the prospects of the Indian economy? Another concern is the allocation of IPO proceeds. Hyundai’s IPO was structured as an offer for sale (OFS), meaning all funds raised would flow to the parent company rather than Hyundai India’s operations. Although Hyundai has committed to investing in R&amp;D for EVs and hybrids, critics argue that the lack of immediate reinvestment in India’s operations reflects a missed opportunity for domestic growth. Despite the early disappointment, Hyundai was confident that the valuation was fair. It did have some factors going for it, in addition to the fact that other auto giants like Mahindra &amp; Mahindra and <keyword id="19909974" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="maruti-suzuki" source="keywords">Maruti Suzuki</keyword> command even higher P/E ratios. And looking at the company fundamentals, it does seem like Hyundai is playing a long-term game. <h3>Hyundai in India: A proven track record</h3>Despite the initial stumble, Hyundai India’s long-term story is compelling. Since entering the Indian market in 1996, the automaker has sold over 8 million vehicles and firmly occupies the second spot in the domestic passenger vehicle market, trailing only Maruti Suzuki. Hyundai’s blockbuster SUV offerings, like the Creta and Venue, have been critical in building this dominance. Despite some challenge from Maruti Suzuki Brezza and Tata Punch, Creta has retained the tag of ‘most-selling SUV in India’ successfully so far this year. <div type="image" title="Hyundai" agency="Business Insider India" msid="116156234" hostid="261" caption="&amp;lt;p&amp;gt;Selling over 17,000 units per month on average this year, Creta has edged past major competitors to be the most-selling SUV in India in 2024. As Indian consumers preference continues to shift gradually towards premium products over budget segments, Hyundai stands to benefit (Wikimedia Commons / Canva)&amp;lt;/p&amp;gt;"></div> Selling over 17,000 units per month on average, Creta has edged past major competitors to be the most-selling SUV in India in 2024. As Indian consumers preference continues to shift gradually towards premium products over budget segments, Hyundai stands to benefit (Wikimedia Commons / Canva) Hyundai India’s market share of 14% in October 2024 underscores its clout. The company’s ability to tap into India’s premiumisation trend, where consumers increasingly prefer high-end vehicles, positions it well for growth. With plans to expand in electric vehicles (EVs) and hybrid technology, Hyundai is poised to capitalise on both domestic demand and export opportunities. The company’s ability to capitalize on its strong brand, extensive dealer network, and leadership in segments like SUVs and exports will determine its future performance. Hyundai’s strategic focus on expanding electric vehicle production also aligns with global trends towards sustainability, potentially positioning it as a leader in the segment. By listing in India, Hyundai aims not only to expand its operations but also to make India a global manufacturing and export hub for its products, especially SUVs and EVs. Therefore, despite early setbacks, Hyundai’s gamble seems to have paid off. The stock has rebounded, gaining 5% in the past month. More good news came in this week, as positive projections from Morgan Stanley and JPMorgan forecast an impressive 17-28% upside for the stock over the next year, reflecting growing investor optimism. <h3>A strategic pivot from the Korean Discount?</h3>The Korean Discount has long plagued South Korea’s chaebols, including Hyundai. Experts attribute this to several factors: <ul> <li>Chaebol Governance: South Korea’s conglomerates, known as chaebols, are often criticised for opaque governance structures and excessive family control.</li> <li>Geopolitical Risks: Tensions with North Korea contribute to investor caution, adding a layer of perceived risk.</li> <li>Limited Domestic Liquidity: South Korea’s relatively small investor base can constrain market activity and valuation potential.</li> </ul> By listing in India, Hyundai sought to unlock better valuations for its subsidiary, leveraging the optimism of Indian markets. India’s stock market has a trailing P/E ratio of 24.4, far above South Korea’s Kospi average of 16-17. The Indian market’s appetite for high-growth stories provides a fertile ground for companies like Hyundai to escape the valuation constraints of their home market. A successful IPO could encourage other such conglomerates to follow suit, setting a precedent. While Hyundai India has a robust track record, its future success hinges on navigating key challenges: <ul> <li>Supply Chain Vulnerabilities: Hyundai relies heavily on its Chennai plant, making it vulnerable to disruptions.</li> <li>Intensifying Competition: Domestic rivals like <keyword id="19906967" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="tata-motors" source="keywords">Tata Motors</keyword> and MG Motors are making aggressive inroads into the EV market.</li> <li>Policy Risks: The automotive sector’s reliance on government incentives for EVs and hybrids adds a layer of unpredictability.</li> </ul> High valuations come with risks. Hyundai will need to prove that it can sustain its growth trajectory in India, fend off competition from established players like Maruti Suzuki and Tata Motors, and navigate challenges such as supply chain disruptions and regulatory hurdles. If Hyundai successfully capitalises on its strong brand and market leadership, it could not only redefine its value but also serve as a case study for other Korean companies seeking better recognition and valuations in global markets. <h3>Is Hyundai saga a reflection of overheated Indian markets?</h3>The bigger question here is, does Hyundai’s IPO highlights a broader narrative about Indian markets’ premium valuations? With a trailing P/E ratio of 24.4, Nifty 50 index is among the highest in emerging markets. India’s stock markets consistently command a premium due to robust retail participation, strong economic growth prospects, and a burgeoning middle class. While this premium reflects optimism about India’s long-term growth story, it also signals potential risks of overvaluation, particularly in sectors like technology, automotive, and consumer goods. With a record ₹94,017 crore outflow by Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs) in October 2024, concerns about overheated valuations are mounting. Sustaining such unprecedented valuations required companies to consistently perform above global averages, and retaining robust earnings growth quarter after quarter remains a challenge in today’s uncertain world. For Hyundai, the high valuation is both an opportunity and a risk. While it underscores investor confidence, it narrows the margin of safety, making the stock vulnerable to corrections during economic downturns. Take for example, the high-profile IPO of Life Insurance Corporation of India (LIC) that raised over ₹21,000 crore. Its listing was met with disappointment as the stock began trading at a 9% discount to its issue price, and subsequent performance has remained subdued. LIC’s post-IPO journey also highlights how inflated valuations can lead to long-term underperformance, as the stock gave only 12% return over the past 30 months when even the Nifty 50 index went up by over 44%. This happens when when the company's growth narrative fails to align with its pricing. Despite being a household name with a dominant market share, LIC's stock has struggled to meet expectations, partly due to concerns about its operating efficiency and the limited use of IPO proceeds for growth initiatives. Make no mistake, Hyundai Motor India’s IPO is a landmark event! It showcases the potential for Korean companies to leverage emerging markets like India for better valuations. It also shows that strong fundamentals can help justify a company such premium valuations even amidst bearish economic prospects. However, it also serves as a cautionary tale about the risks of overvaluation. For Hyundai, the next steps involve proving its long-term growth story, navigating competitive challenges, and maintaining investor confidence. For Indian markets, Hyundai’s IPO underscores the need to balance optimism with realistic expectations as they continue to evolve as global investment hotspots. To sustain the country’s economic narrative as a land of unmatched opportunities, corporate India must work on improving long-term fundamentals and mitigating long-term risks. As global investors watch closely, Hyundai India’s success or failure could shape how international companies view India as a listing destination in the years to come.

Tackling the 'Korean Discount': A deep dive into curious case of Hyundai Motor India's market listing

Over the past few months, there’s been a lot of brouhaha about the lagging pace of bank deposits in India. Simply put, the rate at which Indians are depositing their hard-earned money in banks has been falling constantly, and some blame the increasing financialization of household savings in the country, or the rising preference of Indians towards mutual funds and shares. So, the hypothesis is that people are choosing to invest more in mutual funds and the Indian equity markets through direct investments, IPOs, or NFOs, the money flowing into Indian banks in the form of deposits is slowing down. But is that really the case? <h2>A crisis or a phase?</h2><keyword id="19899808" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="rbi" source="keywords">RBI</keyword> data suggested that for the quarter ended June 2024, bank deposits grew at 11.7%. On the other hand, credit growth has outpaced this at 15%. This means that the outflow from banks as loans is far greater than the inflow into them in the form of deposits in Q1 of FY 2024-25. The situation largely saw cut-copy-paste in the first week of September as well, with loans registering a 13.3% YoY growth during the period, while deposits rose only 11.1%. This gap has only been widening for the last 3 years. Since deposits are how banks gather assets to further lend and earn interest income as a consequence, even a slight dip could set the alarm bells ringing for banks, and rightfully so. And truth be told, mutual funds are indeed taking on bank deposits in a big way. Per a report by <keyword id="20250971" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="franklin-templeton" source="keywords">Franklin Templeton</keyword>, in August 2024, the AUM (assets under management) of Indian mutual funds, or the total funds managed by them, stood at 31.3% of total bank deposits in the country, up from 24.20% during the year-ago period. As of August 2024, the AUM of mutual funds stood at Rs 66.17 lakh crore, an all-time high. But all said and done, is this really the reason why the rate of bank deposits is falling behind? SBI has dismissed this to be a “statistical myth”, and experts point out that since equity and fund houses also keep the cash in their respective bank accounts, there’s no cause for concern. So, is financialization really to be blamed for the trailing tempo of deposits? Or is something else happening behind the scenes? We take a closer look: <h2>First, are <keyword id="4000333" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="household-deposits" source="Orion">household deposits</keyword> really slowing down? And is that a cause of concern?</h2>Data from Motilal Oswal suggests the contrary. Deposits grew by around 10.4% between March 2020 and August 2024. Data from RBI also highlights that as of August 9, 2024, bank deposits witnessed a YoY growth of 10.8%. The loan-to-deposit ratio for the retail segment, which indicates what percentage of its total deposits the banks lend out as loans, has stayed at 77.5%, above the 77% mark for the tenth straight month. Also, we can’t forego the fact that the share of Indian <keyword id="20319599" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="households" source="keywords">households</keyword> in bank deposits has indeed slowed down. However, data from Axis AMC shows that the dip is marginal—from 63% in 2022 to 62% in 2023 and 61% in 2024. What has slowed down even more considerably is the share of government deposits in the aggregate bank deposits, which has dipped from 14% in 2018 to 9% in 2024. So, it's not just household deposits, you see. Moreover, as of March 2024, the collective CASA ratio (current and savings account deposits) of all commercial banks in India stood at 41.00%, down from 43.1% in March 2023 and 45.2% in March 2022, marking a nearly 5% point decline over the past year, while still staying over the 10-year average of 39.2%. This implies that Indian banks are relying more on higher-cost funds (savings accounts), which can limit their profitability. <h2>What is this financialisation of savings we are talking about?</h2>Then again, there is no doubt about the growing affinity of Indians towards mutual funds and stock markets. Recent data from CBDT (<keyword id="19942037" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="central-board-of-direct-taxes" source="keywords">Central Board of Direct Taxes</keyword>) highlights that India’s net direct tax collection surged by around 22%, driven exclusively by the significant uptick in the collection of <keyword id="20930760" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="securities-transaction-tax" source="keywords">Securities Transaction Tax</keyword> (STT), which doubled to Rs 26,154 crore, from Rs 13,352 crore in the year-ago period. Why does this matter? STT is levied when you buy or sell equity shares on stock exchanges, sell equity mutual funds, and trade in futures and options in the equity segment. Such taxes, including the multiple other taxes in equity market investments, are considered as leakages as the money moves out of the economy into government coffers. Data from a ValueQuest report explains that over the last 20 years, the markets have handsomely rewarded the investors, generating over $900 billion in incremental value for them. This is the major driver behind the dramatic rise in investment flowing towards the equity markets. There’s further proof of this budding romance, if you check the demat pudding. The number of demat accounts, which are a primary requisite for participating in the stock markets, also burgeoned by 42.3 lakh in August 2024, taking India’s total tally of demat accounts beyond 17 crore. To put this in perspective, this is almost equivalent to the population of just 8 nations in the world, including China, the US, Brazil and more. Vivek Iyer, Partner, Grant Thornton Bharat thinks it's rather important, as well. “Financialisation of household savings in India is an indication of deepening capital markets in the market, especially from a retail investor standpoint. Bank deposits with a modest rate of return are no longer the only option for savings for investors. Investors today have more avenues for wealth creation in the form of public capital markets, which have democratized wealth creation and provided equality of opportunity to retail investors”, he says. Yes, Indians are investing more and more in the markets, and in mutual funds. But is it a sin to look out for inflation-beating returns, which the stock markets offer, and vanilla bank deposits don't? After all, the allure of 12-13% annual returns offered by equities can certainly pale the stability offered by good old deposits, which generally do not go beyond 9% when it comes to annual returns. But all of this is not what is behind the slowdown. India is still a toddler in the school of savings financialization, with less than 10% of the population holding a demat account, and less than 5% of us saving in equities. That's a drop in the ocean of deposits, far inadequate to trigger a tsunami. <h2>Tell me why lagging deposits have nothing to do with Indians investing more in mutual funds!</h2>Says Shweta Rajani, Head - Mutual Funds, Anand Rathi Wealth Limited, “Households' equity holdings composition grew from 11.1% in FY 23 to 14.7% in FY 24. This trend reflects a growing awareness of investment options, empowering individuals to take control of their financial futures. Despite this transition towards equities, banks still hold a significant share of household financial savings—33.5% in FY24 compared to 34.9% in FY23”. Also, household savings and their subsequent financialization do not have much to do with deposit creation, which is entirely made by banks. What actually drives increased deposits is credit growth or increased lending. When interest rates are eased, people tend to borrow more and spend more, which circulates more money in the economy. For the past 4 years, RBI has been tightening the screws on interest rates, which raises the cost of borrowings, and makes it more expensive to take loans, putting a dampener on credit growth, but effectively curbing inflationary pressures. The last time RBI cut the repo rate by 40 basis points was back in May 2020, 4 years ago. The lag in deposit growth we’re witnessing is almost 3 years old. Coincidence much, or just good old economics at work? But with the <keyword id="19900043" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="fed" source="keywords">Fed</keyword> recently setting a rate cut precedent by slashing 50 bps off its interest rate, RBI is expected to follow suit in the next <keyword id="19918491" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="mpc" source="keywords">MPC</keyword> (Monetary Policy Committee) meeting, scheduled for November 2024. A rate cut would ease the aforementioned high cost of borrowing, and increase loan-taking for corporates and institutional investors, thereby stoking consumption in the economy. And then, deposit creation in banks is likely to return to its former glory. If not, then that would be a curious case to unravel! But that worry is for another day.

A Deposit Dilemma — What's the fuss about a crisis in Indian bank deposits? Are mutual fund investments to blame?

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Tackling the 'Korean Discount': A deep dive into curious case of Hyundai Motor India's market listing

Deekshith Pinto

A Deposit Dilemma — What's the fuss about a crisis in Indian bank deposits? Are mutual fund investments to blame?

Ira Alok Puranik

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