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"Every once in a while, a revolutionary product comes along that changes everything," Steve Jobs said when he unveiled the iPhone in 2007. He was right; the world was never the same. But the <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/guides/tech/iphone-16-review">iPhone 16</a>? Meh.The newest model, which hit stores in September, is off to a straggling start. Apple analyst Ming-Chi Kuo estimated that first-weekend <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/guides/tech/iphone-16">preorder sales</a> were down by nearly 13% compared with first-weekend sales for last year's iPhone 15. The iPhone 15 also had an underwhelming start to the year: from January to March, Apple reported a 10% year-over-year drop in phone revenue. In the 17 years since the original came out, the release of a new iPhone has gone from the marquee tech event of the year to little more than a software update wrapped in cellophane.Replacing that hype is a new kind of hype: for old iPhones. The global market for refurbished smartphones grew by 5% year over year from 2021 to 2022, according to Counterpoint Research. <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/companies-requiring-return-to-office-rto-mandate">Apple</a> made up half of the resold-phone marketplace in 2022. It accounted for about a quarter of new smartphones shipped globally in late 2023, according to market intelligence firm International Data Corporation. (The company also sells its own refurbished products.) In Europe, some 43% of people have already owned a refurbished phone, according to a 2023 survey conducted by Vodafone and Recommerce Group, a tech buyback company. Zion Market Research estimates that in the US, the market for used phones could grow by about 13% a year through 2032.Glen Cardoza, a senior research analyst at Counterpoint, says a few things are driving the used-phone revolution. People are more aware of refurbished phones, thanks to ad campaigns and word of mouth. Learning that your friend has an iPhone 12 and still manages to be the most active member of your group chat may make you more likely to get a used phone yourself. The quality of repairs and guarantees from refurbished-phone sellers have improved, making the phones less risky to buy. Some shoppers care about <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/florida-man-refused-leave-hurricane-proof-home-basically-unharmed-milton-2024-10">environmental impact</a>, but high prices are the chief concern. "With incremental improvements between new smartphone versions, a growing share of consumers feel that refurbished options are better," Cardoza tells me in an email. "They do not mind using a cheaper refurbished model that has most of the recent features."Refurbished-tech sellers think this is their moment to seize. <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/back-market-raises-510-million-as-valuation-soars-57-billion-2022-1">Back Market</a>, a secondhand-tech marketplace based in France, has raised more than $1 billion and is on track to become profitable in Europe for the first time this year, says CEO Thibaud Hug de Larauze. During a recent press conference, he revealed the company had served 15 million customers and sold 30 million items, indicating that Back Market has had a good number of repeat buyers during the past 10 years. Phones are the majority of Back Market's sales, but the company also sells, among other items, smart watches, headphones, laptops, and video-game consoles. Refurbished tech is now among the five most popular secondhand categories purchased on eBay.Hug de Larauze is extremely bullish on the future of secondhand tech: He predicts that within 10 years, 90% of adults could be buying refurbished products or opting to repair their devices rather than buying new ones. "People start to actually realize there is not that much innovation in the next product," he tells me. Consumers are also uncertain about <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/iphone-16-apple-intelligence-ai-does-not-matter-to-customers-2024-9">all the AI</a> that companies, Apple included, are baking into their latest devices. "What does it do?" he says. "What does it change in your life?" Hug de Larauze likens the used-phone revolution to the shifts in car sales. Cars are expensive and lose value, and innovation from one model to the next has become negligible. The idea of buying a used car and fixing it as parts break down is normalized. If phones are just as poor of an investment, why not get something more affordable that gets the job done — even if it means sacrificing horsepower and the latest add-ons?Refurbished-phone dealers are also finding creative waves to counter years of marketing that capitalizes on "newphoria," the feeling of elation people get when unboxing a shiny new tech toy. Back Market satirized the idea in an ad last year, showing people eager to grab the new product but mocking the slight changes to buttons and charging ports. The company also recently ran a mystery-phone promotion. For $249 or 299 euros, customers could buy a refurbished iPhone or Android without knowing the model they'd get. The phones sold out in two hours in France and just days in the US, Hug de Larauze says. Back Market didn't provide the total number of phones sold during the promotion, but Hug de Larauze said the sales exceeded the company's expectations. It showed that there are shoppers who care far more about the phone's price than its model.Anmol Aroz, a 23-year-old who works in IT sales in England, says he bought a refurbished iPhone 13 Pro two years ago and saved about £500. He's been impressed with the phone and less impressed by the new features on more-recent models. He feels like he can do enough with ChatGPT on his phone and doesn't need Apple Intelligence yet. Aroz says sustainability was also on his mind, adding that he's not so wooed by new clothes or new tech, both of which lose value quickly. "The second you touch the wrapper, it's £200 down the drain," he says. "I'm pretty much set on sticking to the refurbished route." Amy Marty Conrad, a 34-year-old who lives in the Washington, DC, area says she and her husband have each bought refurbished phones. She's on her second, a Samsung Galaxy S21, which she bought two years ago. She recently replaced the battery, giving it even more life. "I mostly use my phone for calls, email, work, and a camera," she says. "A lot of the other software innovations aren't doing a lot for me." She's also conscious about waste, and she buys clothing and other household items secondhand, too.But perhaps the biggest thing blocking people from buying more secondhand phones is the manufacturers themselves. Through a practice called "parts pairing," in which a replacement part can work only if a company's software recognizes and approves it, tech companies have made it difficult to repair your own phone or to get third-party shops to do so: Replace your cracked iPhone screen at a local repair shop, and your Face ID may never work again. That's changing, albeit slowly. In April, Apple announced it would begin making changes that would allow for some used genuine Apple parts to be put into other iPhones. Apple did not respond to an email asking about updates on the rollout of the change, but the company has long maintained that parts pairing bolsters a phone's security.In March, shortly before Apple's announcement, Oregon passed a law banning parts pairing, becoming the first US state to do so. And while it applies only to devices made after January 1, 2025, it's a major shift for how manufacturers make their future tech fixable. More lawmakers are tackling repair impediments, and the European Union this year adopted laws designed to make it easier for people to get their products fixed by manufacturers or third-party repairers rather than being pushed to replace them.Tim Cook certainly doesn't see the rise of refurbished phones as an existential threat. Even underwhelming sales are underwhelming by Apple's standards. It has already sold an estimated tens of millions of iPhone 16s, and that's before the typical holiday boost and the release of Apple Intelligence. But with consumers' growing AI skepticism and interest in secondhand phones, the company would need to summon the kind of dazzle unseen since Steve Jobs' presentation in 2007 to reverse the trend of dwindling excitement with the iPhones 17, 18, 19, and 20.Two years ago, I bought a refurbished iPhone 11 from Back Market after the display on my iPhone XR suddenly became unusable. It didn't have the upgraded camera or 5G — but the phone let me text, doomscroll on social media, and take decent photos, and it had good battery life. In an age of constant tech changes, sometimes all you need is for a phone to be a phone.<a target="_blank" rel="" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/author/amanda-hoover">Amanda Hoover</a> is a senior correspondent at Business Insider covering the tech industry. She writes about the biggest tech companies and trends.

The market for used phones is growing. Apple should be scared.

<ul class="summary-list"><li>This post originally appeared in the Insider Today newsletter.</li></ul>Welcome back to our Sunday edition. Maybe it's <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/how-to-tell-imposter-syndrome-versus-bad-at-job-2024-9">imposter syndrome</a>, or maybe you're bad at your job. Microsoft's former vice president of HR shares <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/microsoft-hr-performance-signs-bad-at-job-2024-10">three signs it's the latter</a>.On the agenda today:<ul><li>Meet the exec tasked with Citi's biggest challenge: <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/citi-anand-selva-transformation-consent-orders-fines-2024-10">getting the bank's house in order</a>.</li><li>Amazon's growing cash mountain has <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/amazon-big-tech-cash-king-wall-street-wants-a-piece-2024-10">Wall Street licking its lips</a>.</li><li>Millennials are about to be crushed by <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/millennial-gen-x-boomer-inheritance-stuff-house-collectibles-2024-10">all the junk their parents accumulated</a>.</li><li>A writer finally caved and got solar panels. <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/solar-industry-collapse-my-roof-nightmare-2024-10">It turned out to be a huge mistake</a>.</li></ul>But first: Elon Musk's robotaxi got lost on the way to Wall Street.If this was forwarded to you, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/subscription/newsletter/insider-today-sunday-edition">sign up here</a>. Download Insider's app <a target="_blank" href="https://www.insider.com/app">here.</a><h3 id="58506b3b-b008-4ead-9e90-71439c9e98dd">This week's dispatch</h3><h2 id="445f5814-a55f-4878-a10e-9b6683bfa158">Robotaxi dreams meet Wall Street reality</h2>Elon Musk unveiled Tesla's <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/tesla-robotaxi-event-cybercab-elon-musk-2024-10">robotaxi</a>, along with a <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/what-we-know-about-teslas-new-robovan-so-far-2024-10">robovan</a> and updates to its <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/elon-musk-tesla-robotaxi-event-optimus-robot-serves-drinks-dances-2024-10">humanoid</a> robot, at a flashy event in Los Angeles this week. Wall Street wasn't buying it.The billionaire took a ride in Tesla's new Cybercab around Warner Bros. Discovery's movie studio in Burbank, later saying it would be in production before 2027 and could sell for less than $30,000.Investors didn't seem convinced. <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/elon-musk-tesla-robotaxi-cybercar-analysts-self-driving-fleet-ai-2024-10">Tesla's stock</a> finished Friday down almost 9%, leaving shares down 17% over the past year.Musk has long promised a robotaxi, saying in 2019 that Tesla would have a million of them on the road by 2020. That prediction was later revised to 2023. Five years on from that first prediction, Tesla remains <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/elon-musk-tesla-robotaxi-safety-regulation-2024-10">some distance away from fully autonomous driving</a>, and doesn't yet have permission to let driverless cars loose on open streets.In the meantime, tech startups and old-guard Detroit automakers have <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/robotaxi-ridesharing-tesla-waymo-uber-2024-10">developed their own versions of self-driving tech</a> that can <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/tesla-robotaxi-elon-musk-ride-hailing-uber-lyft-waymo-rivals-2024-10">more or less match Tesla</a>. You can already <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/waymo-robot-taxis-weird-san-francisco-traffic-parking-cars-2024-9">order a driverless Waymo</a> in three major cities today.It's tough to bet against Elon Musk, as many on <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/tesla-short-sellers-bleed-billions-elon-musk-threatens-obliteration-2024-7">Wall Street</a> have discovered. If Tesla does crack fully autonomous driving, it could herald a new era for the company. But for now, investors are skeptical about Tesla's self-driving dreams.<h2 id="8de1f093-db58-438e-a296-ab09ff92ad5c">Save our Citi</h2><div type="image" title="&quot;Photo collage featuring Anand Selva, chief operating officer, with Citibank's logo in the background" height="1500" width="2000" msid="114190225" hostid="261" sizebytes="179366"></div>Last year, Anand Selva was named Citigroup's COO. His mandate: oversee an unsexy yet crucial initiative to regain compliance with regulators. He's been tasked with overseeing the "Transformation," an aptly named initiative to overhaul the bank's technology.BI spoke with 14 current and former Citi employees who've worked under Selva to get a picture of the challenge facing him — and why he was put in charge of the bank's No. 1 priority.<a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/citi-anand-selva-transformation-consent-orders-fines-2024-10">Inside Selva's tenure so far</a>.<h2 id="8d221ec2-a40e-4d73-80e7-638d6c30f428">Big Tech's cash king</h2><div type="image" title="Andy Jassy" height="1000" width="2000" msid="114190226" hostid="261" sizebytes="205428"></div>Amazon has long been famous for running on thin margins, reinvesting most of its profits, and holding relatively little cash compared with peers. By 2027, that's expected to change, with the company's cash balance estimated to hit $400 billion.That number puts it on track to far outpace rivals Alphabet and Microsoft. Wall Street is taking note, and Amazon could soon face pressure to return some of its cash with buybacks or dividends.<a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/amazon-big-tech-cash-king-wall-street-wants-a-piece-2024-10">Wall Street wants in on the action</a>.<h2 id="69bad2e5-a5bf-4ba9-b958-e3eff00ffc5b">The boomer stuff avalanche</h2><div type="image" title="A mountain of antique items with a cutout in the shape of a person with their arms on their hips in the center of the pile" height="1500" width="2000" msid="114190227" hostid="261" sizebytes="591740"></div>An old boomer habit is raining down on their children: There's too much stuff, and not enough space.Boomers have spent lifetimes acquiring things, and their Gen X, millennial, and Gen Z progeny are figuring out what to do with everything. Family dynamics can make it hard to say no, even if there's no use or space for all that junk.<a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/millennial-gen-x-boomer-inheritance-stuff-house-collectibles-2024-10">The "great stuff transfer."</a><h2 id="dc96d953-8312-4bf5-8432-dfb9ba5779e5">A solar panel fiasco</h2><div type="image" title="a house with solar panels burns down." height="1000" width="1334" msid="114190228" hostid="261" sizebytes="173944"></div>Business Insider's Vishal Persaud spent months getting his solar panels installed and inspected. All that was left was to switch them on, but the solar panel company needed final approval from its partner, SunPower, to do so. Then, SunPower filed for bankruptcy protection.Despite the ongoing climate crisis, much of the solar panel industry is cooling. Over the years, it's faced high interest rates that have decimated demand, questionable financial engineering, and more than 100 bankruptcies across America in 2024 alone.<a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/solar-industry-collapse-my-roof-nightmare-2024-10">Now some customers are stuck in solar purgatory</a>.This week's quote:"When you move fast and break things in healthcare, you go to jail."— 27-year-old startup founder Ibrahim Rashid on <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/gen-z-tech-founder-gap-zuckerberg-bezos-holmes-2024-10">the lessons learned from intrepid tech founders</a>.More of this week's top reads:<ul><li>The hidden upside of a college degree: <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/college-graduates-more-likely-have-friends-participate-community-civil-engagement-2024-10">Having more friends</a>.</li><li>The housing market's Ice Age is <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/housing-market-ice-age-homebuyers-mortgage-rates-spring-real-estate-2024-10">finally starting to thaw</a>.</li><li>Dell's sudden five-day RTO order left parents <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/dell-staff-return-office-order-sparks-panic-parents-childcare-wfh-2024-10">scrambling to find childcare</a>.</li><li>Five things to include in your résumé, and <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/cant-get-job-what-to-never-always-include-resume-hiring-2024-10">eight things to leave out</a>.</li><li>Welcome to the <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/job-market-outlook-claudia-sahm-layoffs-hiring-economy-twilight-zone-2024-10">job market "Twilight Zone."</a></li><li>How politicians' fundraising appeals got to <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/politicians-desperate-fundraising-appeals-2024-10">sound so desperate</a>.</li><li>Want to get into the AI industry? <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/abu-dhabi-uae-ai-powerhouse-mgx-openai-investment-2024-10">Head to Abu Dhabi</a>.The Insider Today team: <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/author/dan-defrancesco">Dan DeFrancesco</a>, deputy editor and anchor, in New York. <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/author/jordan-parker-erb">Jordan Parker Erb</a>, editor, in New York. Grace Lett, editor, in Chicago. <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/author/amanda-yen">Amanda Yen</a>, fellow, in New York.</li></ul>

Insider Today: Robotaxi reality check

When Google was about five years old, the world saw its finances for the first time when it filed for an IPO. The company was wildly profitable, making over <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1288776/000119312504073639/ds1.htm#toc16167_11">$100 million in net income</a> in 2003. It <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/google-cfo-analysts-ai-subscription-growth-2024-9">never looked back.</a>When Facebook was roughly seven years old, it shared financial data with prospective investors. I got a look at the document when I was a reporter at MarketWatch. It indicated that the company had already become <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.marketwatch.com/story/facebooks-profitability-tops-youthful-googles-2011-01-20">remarkably profitable</a>, too.Now, we've gotten the first peak at <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/meet-the-power-players-at-openai-2024-9">OpenAI</a>'s financials. It's almost 10 years old, and it's nothing like Google and Facebook.The Information obtained OpenAI financial documents and published an <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://affiliate.insider.com?h=b8aa910fbf90d78a19072ee9b80d2be0b7a88ac390afbb61f1c57e93f216e1d8&amp;postID=67080597434c477c2328b872&amp;postSlug=openai-ai-adjusted-earnings-groupon-wework-accounting-2024-10&amp;site=bi&amp;u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.theinformation.com%2Farticles%2Fopenai-projections-imply-losses-tripling-to-14-billion-in-2026%3Futm_campaign%3DRTSU%253A%2BOpenAI%2Bloss%2Bpr%26utm_content%3D5506%26utm_medium%3Demail%26utm_source%3Dcio%26utm_term%3D3755%26rc%3Dnytiul">analysis</a> this week. Revenue is growing fast and could hit $100 billion in 2029. But the company projects total losses from 2023 to 2028 to be $44 billion. <h2 id="477718b4-1323-4436-8186-463b575dd022">Excluding AI model training costs</h2>The most concerning part: OpenAI is asking investors to exclude the billions of dollars it spends on training AI models, according to the documents analyzed by The Information.<a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/ai-synthetic-data-industry-debate-over-fake-2024-8">AI model training</a> is one of the main things that OpenAI does. It's what everyone thinks of when the startup is mentioned. It <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/openai-gpt4-ai-model-got-lazier-dumber-chatgpt-2023-7">launched GPT-4</a> in early 2023 and <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://openai.com/index/introducing-openai-o1-preview/">rolled out a new o1 model</a> in September, for instance.Is it OK for an AI company to exclude the cost of training its AI models when it reports earnings? I checked this with a veteran venture capitalist who was a top executive at a Big Tech company for years. The person said clearly no. These costs are real and it's a sign of hubris that OpenAI is asking investors to ignore what is a fundamental business expense, the person explained. They asked not to be identified discussing sensitive matters. <h2 id="a435e15d-2020-4026-a431-a693ab699a68">'Not kosher'</h2>I also asked an accounting expert to go on the record about this. I chatted with Francine McKenna, who writes <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://thedig.substack.com/?utm_source=substack&amp;utm_medium=web&amp;utm_campaign=substack_profile">The Dig</a>, a blog focusing on accounting, audit, and corporate-governance issues at public and pre-IPO companies. She used to work at KPMG Consulting and PwC, and implemented accounting and financial systems, including SAP and Oracle ERP software, for big companies.She knows accounting and technology well. She read The Information story closely on Thursday and had this to say about OpenAI's efforts to get investors to ignore the cost of training its AI models. "That is a bridge too far," McKenna told me. "It's not kosher."For an AI company like OpenAI, training models will be an ongoing process. The world is constantly evolving, and new data is being generated, which will have to be incorporated into AI models' understanding."They are going to have to constantly train their AI models on new information," McKenna said. "They will never be done. I think it's a sleight of hand to try to exclude these costs."<h2 id="513a11d1-a62c-4c41-81f5-e1d2caf2c90b">IPO rules</h2>This will become especially important if OpenAI tries an IPO, which some investors <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.axios.com/2024/10/03/openai-funding-ipo-public-future">expect the startup to do</a> in the coming years.The Securities and Exchange Commission focuses heavily on alternative measures of profitability and does not allow companies to exclude many of the ongoing costs of doing business."If they put that in an IPO prospectus and the SEC looked at it, the SEC would probably say you can't use these as an adjustment to income," McKenna said. "To me, that's more akin to ongoing product maintenance and development."I asked OpenAI about the concerns of McKenna and the VC partner on Thursday morning and at the end of that day. The company didn't respond to my detailed questions. The VC partner noted that other OpenAI costs could decline in coming years, citing inference as an example. Inference is the stage after training that allows AI models to respond to new information. It's basically how the models are run.Those post-training costs could decline dramatically in coming years, which could help OpenAI reduce its losses, the VC partner explained.However, the VC said you still can't exclude AI model training, which will be a large and ongoing fundamental cost of providing OpenAI's services.<h2 id="3d270677-596d-4309-b18c-5389c355b984">Groupon and WeWork</h2>Excluding the cost of the core thing you do has echoes of other high-flying tech startups from a few years ago. McKenna drew comparisons to Groupon, and discussed WeWork, too. Before Groupon went public in 2011, it suggested that investors look at "adjusted consolidated segment operating income," or <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/sec-investigating-groupon-accounting-2011-7">adjusted CSOI</a>, which excluded several marketing-related expenses. The SEC objected, and Groupon had to change its accounting.Last year, Groupon issued a "going concern" warning, raising doubts about its ability to stay in business. (Its performance has improved a bit this year).In 2019, WeWork told investors to focus on "<a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/wework-financials-community-adjusted-ebitda-reminds-experts-of-tech-bubble-2019-5">community-adjusted EBITDA</a>." Essentially, the company was asking investors to ignore the cost of doing many of the things that it needed to do to run its business.OpenAI is doing a similar thing now, according to McKenna and the VC partner. Let's call it "AI adjusted earnings" for an AI company."OpenAI can do whatever it wants and try to spin any story they want with investors. They are a private company," McKenna said. "Are they producing audited financial statements and giving them to investors? That's unclear. Right now, they don't have to. But that will stop at a certain point if they eventually prepare a prospectus for an IPO."WeWork went <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/wework-files-for-bankruptcy-chapter-11-commercial-real-estate-reckoning-2023-11">bankrupt</a> in November 2023.

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The market for used phones is growing. Apple should be scared.

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Insider Today: Robotaxi reality check

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OpenAI's AI-adjusted earnings numbers have echoes of Groupon and WeWork

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