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<p class="drop-cap">It may not feel like it yet, but the housing market's <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/housing-market-ice-age-higher-home-prices-fewer-sales-inventory-2023-5">Ice Age</a> is finally thawing.</p><p>Would-be buyers and sellers have found themselves stuck over the past couple of years. For-sale signs stood frozen in front yards as home shoppers balked at prices. Wild swings in mortgage rates discouraged almost everyone from venturing out into the market. Many <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/economy-housing-market-mortgage-buying-car-interest-rates-new-jobs-2024-3">felt as if they had no option but to stay put</a>. But when I talk to housing experts these days, they speak cautiously of a shift in the weather, a warming in store for American real estate.</p><p>Green shoots are popping up everywhere. The typical borrowing rate for a 30-year home loan is near the lowest it's been in two years, which could nudge more sellers to emerge from hibernation. The pool of available homes on the market is larger than at any point since the early days of the COVID-19 pandemic. While the median home price nationwide is up by 3% to 5% compared with a year ago, that's actually within the range that economists typically look for in a well-balanced market. If things keep trending this way, we should expect to see this coming spring, the time of year when transactions typically pick up, that more people are ready to get moving again.</p><p>Would this mean we're back to normal? Definitely not. Things may be more stable than they were during the peak of the home-trading frenzy or the depths of the slowdown, but that doesn't mean the housing market's problems are solved. It'll be hard for both buyers and sellers to shake off the pessimism of the past few years, especially when budgets are stretched so thin and home prices remain so high. That reality shouldn't obscure the encouraging signals, though. As I wrote earlier this year, a <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/denmark-mortgage-rates-lock-in-effect-home-buying-selling-easier-2024-5">gummed-up housing market</a> — the Ice Age I was talking about — is good for nobody. In half a year's time, we may be looking at a healthier one.</p><p class="drop-cap">There's a tendency to look at housing in binary terms: Is it a better time to be a seller or a buyer? But a lot of people fall into both camps; most sellers have to turn around and purchase another home to live in. Recently, this fact of life has created what Skylar Olsen, Zillow's chief economist, calls the "musical chairs" problem: People can't jump up and find a new home if their neighbors aren't making similar moves, so everyone's stuck in their seats.</p><p>A big reason Americans find themselves trapped in place is what's known as the "lock-in effect." When mortgage rates hit multidecade lows during the pandemic, millions of people were able to snag or refinance their way into cheaper monthly costs. But starting in the spring of 2022, the rate for a typical mortgage soared, more than doubling from those pandemic-era lows. While it's come down from a two-decade peak last October, the prevailing loan terms are still about twice as expensive as they were back in 2021, which means a buyer could have to pay hundreds of dollars more each month toward interest than they would have a few years ago. A lot of people don't want to give up a good deal, so they don't make a change unless they absolutely have to. One paper from the Federal Housing Finance Agency suggested that the lock-in effect prevented a whopping 1.3 million home sales between mid-2022 and the end of 2023. A mere 2.5% of America's housing stock traded hands in the first eight months this year, according to Redfin, the lowest rate in at least three decades and 31% lower than in 2019.</p><p>The recent drop in the typical rate for a 30-year loan — from about 7.2% in early May to 6.1% in early October — won't erase the lock-in effect, but it's an encouraging sign for buyers who have been grasping for anything that could ease the burden on their wallets. Even after a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/mortgage-rate-increase-since-federal-reserve-cut-interest-rates-housing-2024-10">uptick in the last few days</a> following the unexpectedly strong jobs report, more interest-rate cuts from the Federal Reserve, which signaled last month that it was <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/fed-rate-cut-explained-inflation-labor-market-conditions-outlook-recession-2024-9">turning its focus away from battling inflation</a>, could further bring down mortgage rates, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/personal-finance/mortgages/how-does-fed-impact-mortgage-rates">though there's not a direct connection between the two</a>. Fannie Mae, for instance, predicts the rate for a typical home loan could end next year at 5.7%. That'd be within spitting distance of what the experts at John Burns Research and Consulting, a housing-research firm, call the "magic mortgage rate." Among homeowners and renters who said they planned to use a mortgage to purchase their next home, 47% told the firm in September that they'd be willing to sign up for a rate between 5% and 5.49%. Even if rates continue their downward trajectory, changes in mortgage payments typically take about six months to show up in home-sales activity, Ralph McLaughlin, a senior economist at Realtor.com, told me. So movement now could set the stage for a stronger uptick in sales next spring. Fannie Mae has also predicted that the total number of sales will be up by 10% in 2025 compared with this year, with most of that increase coming in the second half of the year.</p><div type="image" title="house for sale sign" height="1414" width="2121" msid="114076822" hostid="261" sizebytes="84578"></div><p>While mortgage-rate movement can be a helpful guide for future activity, to get a full picture of what's actually happening in the real-estate market, you need to look at two data points: inventory, or the number of available homes on the market, and new listings, or the number of homes hitting the market. Olsen, the Zillow economist, likens inventory to a swimming pool and new listings to the spigot that keeps water flowing — as with any pool, too full or too empty is a problem. A balanced market is one in which there are enough new homes to meet the demand from buyers, but not so many that prices plummet. We're still a long way from refilling the pool of homes on the market: Inventory in September was down by about 23% from pre-pandemic levels, according to Realtor.com. But there is clear improvement taking place here, too. The number of active listings in September was <em>up</em> by 34% from the same month a year ago, increasing to its highest level since April 2020. The number of homes newly listed for sale in September was also up by 11.6% from last year. By slowing down home sales, higher rates have given inventory time to build back up from pandemic lows — homes are lingering on the market longer with fewer buyers, so the pool's water level has steadily climbed.</p><p>More homes to choose from, lower mortgage rates — that's a "powerful combination," said Lawrence Yun, the National Association of Realtors' chief economist, adding that sales should move higher in the coming months as a result. Buyers can take heart in another data point, which is that far fewer homes are being snapped up as soon as they hit the market. According to the housing-data firm Altos Research, there were about half as many "immediate sales" in late September as there were in 2022. "It looks like that frenzy is finally gone," Altos' president, Mike Simonsen, said in a recent video update.</p>          <p>The baseline expectation for the spring, the Redfin economist Chen Zhao told me, is a modest uptick in sales and new listings. Most economists don't expect mortgage rates to fall dramatically, meaning sellers will slowly start to reenter the market as they decide it's time to make a change. New listings this year increased by about 5% a month on average compared with the same months in 2023 — you might expect to see that climb a little next year, Zhao told me, to maybe 10% year-over-year growth. The total number of homes on the market each month tended to be about 10% or 15% higher than last year, but you might see that rise to 20% or 25% when you compare 2025 with this year. This is the housing's version of a soft landing; there won't be dancing in the streets, but it would be a marked improvement from the past couple of years.</p><p>"Even though the housing market is recovering, the recovery is going to be very slow," Zhao told me. "We're not going to see anything like the activity that we saw in 2021 or 2020 — or even 2019, 2018 — for a while."</p><p>Still, if buyers are feeling better about their prospects, that should grease the wheels of America's housing market.</p><p class="drop-cap">It is important to note that forecasts are just forecasts. There's a lot that could change in the next year. The <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/hiring-slump-professional-white-collar-jobs-recession-high-salary-2024-4">strength of the job market</a> is a big question mark — people won't move if they don't feel sure about their next paycheck. There are huge regional differences to consider here, too. Builders have finished a lot more new housing in Sun Belt states in the lower half of the US, for example, which has made it harder for homeowners there to sell at their desired prices than for their counterparts in the Midwest or the Northeast. Affordability is still a huge pain point. An August survey by Fannie Mae suggested consumers were feeling remarkably optimistic about the future of mortgage rates, but only 17% of respondents said it was a good time to buy a home. Any one of these issues could chill the market and slow America's exit from the Ice Age.</p><p>That said, it's impossible to ignore the signs of a shift underway. Mortgage rates are a key piece of the equation. I'll also be keeping a close eye on inventory and the pace of new listings hitting the market, which should heat back up starting around February and March. But all this focus on the numbers can obscure the simple fact that people have to move for all kinds of reasons that have nothing to do with a few digits and a percent sign.</p><p>I recently spoke with Mark Palim, the chief economist at Fannie Mae, who left me with a salient piece of advice: "Leave timing the bond market to the hedge-fund guys." In other words, trying to predict mortgage rates — and buying or selling a home accordingly — is a fool's errand. Budgets matter, absolutely, and monthly payments are a crucial consideration for any buyer. But buyers and sellers should remember that their home isn't just an investment vehicle or a bet on where the economy is headed. At the end of the day, you have to live in it.</p><p>"All sorts of things can happen," Palim told me. "Rates may move. Home prices may go up, home prices may go down. But would you be happy living there for a while? Does it meet your needs?"</p><p><a target="_blank" rel="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/author/james-rodriguez"><em><u>James Rodriguez</u></em></a><em> is a senior reporter on Business Insider's Discourse team.</em></p>

The Housing Ice Age is thawing

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Affordable housing is one of America's top economic concerns heading into the election.</li><li>Detailed below is what Harris and Trump have proposed in order to address these worries.</li></ul><p><a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/harris-trump-presidential-election-swing-state-polls-sun-belt-2024-10">Election Day</a> is around the corner and some Americans are already casting their ballots in early voting. For many, affordable housing is a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.bankrate.com/personal-finance/2024-election-and-the-economy-survey/">top</a> concern.</p><p>In the third of Business Insider's five-part series for the final stretch before the election, BI is looking at the ways each candidate and their associated policies will impact the price of housing. (Read <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/market-impact-presidential-election-scenarios-trump-harris-stocks-bonds-crypto-2024-10">part 1</a> about investments, and <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/cost-expensive-goods-price-impact-presidential-election-scenarios-trump-harris-2024-10">part 2</a> about costs.)</p><p>Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump have both pledged to address high prices by <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/homes-free-government-land-real-estate-housing-prices-harris-trump-2024-8">boosting the supply of homes</a>. They've also floated plans to increase affordable housing while offering different viewpoints on home construction in rural and urban areas.</p><p>Detailed below are four elements of the housing-price equation, and what both the Harris and Trump camps have either proposed or already done.</p><h2 id="1827e262-8518-4344-bd61-fda006799bbc">Increasing housing supply</h2><p>Harris has said she will work with the private sector and homebuilders to construct <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/how-kamala-harris-plans-to-build-3-million-new-homes-2024-8">3 million more homes</a> by the end of her first term. She also plans to create a <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/kamala-harris-economy-proposal-25k-first-time-homebuyers-down-payent-2024-8">$40 billion federal innovation fund</a> that encourages local governments to build housing.</p><p>This is in response to an ongoing US housing shortage. The US was short about <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://zillow.mediaroom.com/2024-06-18-The-U-S-is-now-short-4-5-million-homes-as-the-housing-deficit-grows">4.5 million homes</a> in 2022, a recent Zillow report found. And that same year the number of US families increased by 1.8 million, but just 1.4 million housing units were built.</p><p>The Democratic candidate also said she plans to expand the existing <a target="_blank" href="https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/lihtc.html">low-income housing tax credit</a>, which incentivizes the rehabilitation or building of housing targeted at lower-income households.</p><p>"Harris is trying to increase the supply of townhomes, duplexes, and condos, so that people can have an easier step onto the housing ladder than what they currently have," Daryl Fairweather, chief economist at the real estate firm Redfin, told BI.</p><p>Fairweather added that Trump has talked a little bit about cutting red tape, referring to building permits and zoning laws that prevent new housing developments, but that he hasn't provided details. He also said he would <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.eenews.net/articles/trump-vows-hell-cut-regs-to-build-housing-on-federal-land/">designate more federal land</a> for housing.</p><p>Some experts have concerns that Trump's <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trumps-tariff-outlook-trade-policy-income-tax-consequences-fiscal-crisis-2024-7">high tariff proposals</a> on materials like steel would make it harder to build housing. <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="c-link" href="https://www.piie.com/sites/default/files/2024-05/pb24-1.pdf">A report</a> published in May<strong> </strong>from the nonpartisan think tank Peterson Institute for International Economics predicts they will<strong> </strong>make<strong> </strong>construction more expensive. High construction costs have been a major factor in the US' <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/why-theres-a-housing-shortage-not-enough-homes-high-prices-2022-5">underbuilding of homes</a>.</p><p>On the campaign trail, the former president has remarked that the housing supply will improve once <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/jd-vance-deport-20-million-immigrants-reduce-home-prices-rents-2024-7">millions of people are deported</a> from the country. Builders have argued that such an effort would only <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-election/trump-immigration-deportations-home-building-costs-rcna172886">drive up costs</a>, as immigrant labor makes up a vital part of the construction industry.</p><p>Trump has also said he would <a target="_blank" href="https://www.cnn.com/2024/09/06/business/undocumented-immigrants-trump-mortgage-ban/index.html">ban mortgages for undocumented immigrants</a> to decrease demand on the housing market. <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.cnn.com/2024/09/06/business/undocumented-immigrants-trump-mortgage-ban/index.html">Experts have said</a> this group makes up a small portion of the US mortgage market.</p><h2 id="6cfbfb8d-3edd-447a-a479-1e8d09b5bb3b"><strong>First-time homebuyer assistance</strong></h2><p>Harris has proposed offering up to <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/harris-down-payment-assistance-plan-25000-housing-crisis-affordability-zillow-2024-8">$25,000 in down-payment assistance</a> for first-time homebuyers who have paid their rent on time for at least two years.</p><p>Harris has also said she would offer tax incentives to homebuilders who prioritize "starter homes." Experts have said Harris' down-payment assistance plan would boost overall home prices because it would increase demand for mortgages <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.aei.org/research-products/report/determining-the-price-impact-of-harris-down-payment-assistance-proposal/">without solving supply issues</a>.</p><p>Although Trump has said that he <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-biden-housing-crisis-policy-rising-home-prices-apartment-rents-2024-6">would offer tax incentives</a> to first-time homebuyers, his campaign has not released details about the amount of aid.</p><p>As president, Trump proposed <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-biden-housing-crisis-policy-rising-home-prices-apartment-rents-2024-6">major cuts</a> to the federal Department of Housing and Urban Development's budget, including slashing housing assistance and community development aid.</p><p>"Qualifying income for a household to be able to afford the typical price of a home right now is six figures," Jessica Lautz, the deputy chief economist and vice president of research at the National Association of Realtors, said. "That can be really impossible to imagine for someone who is a school teacher."</p><h2 id="622bc6c7-b5ce-4d83-9740-314714da24ed"><strong>Urban vs. rural housing</strong></h2><p>In dense urban areas, Harris hopes her plan can usher in new construction by <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/yimbys-harris-housing-policy-walz-lower-home-prices-affordability-2024-8">removing some zoning restrictions</a> that prevent multifamily townhomes, condos, and duplexes from being built.</p><p>Harris has emphasized her desire to expand housing in rural America in recent weeks. In a <a target="_blank" href="https://static.politico.com/6c/c1/6cc380c24392aef810eaf3ae648f/harris-campaign-rural-plan.pdf">memo</a> released in September, she said her plan would include $7.2 billion in infrastructure investments and potentially boost economic growth.</p><p>While in the White House, Trump <a target="_blank" href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/well-protect-americas-suburbs-11597608133">opposed</a> the construction of high-density housing in single-family zoned<strong> </strong>areas, arguing that he would "save" the suburbs from the Democratic Party. It's unclear if Trump still wants to pursue similar policies.</p><p>While in office in 2017, Trump proposed a budget for the 2018 fiscal year that <a target="_blank" href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/post-nation/wp/2017/05/23/heavy-cuts-to-rural-development-and-infrastructure-in-latest-trump-budget/">would have significantly cut</a> rural housing subsidies. The bulk of these proposals never came to fruition.</p><h2 id="e4a11dbe-840d-4cd2-960e-91b271fa111b"><strong>Action against big landlords</strong></h2><p>Harris has said she will take action against "<a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/kamala-harris-ban-landlords-raising-rent-algorithms-realpage-2024-8">corporate landlords</a>," and call on Congress to remove tax benefits from investors who acquire 50 or more single-family rental homes. Her planned investment in a federal innovation fund would also incentivize cities to build more rental options.</p><p>This is in response to <a target="_blank" href="https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2024/renter-households-cost-burdened-race.html">nearly half</a> of America's renters in 2024 being considered "cost-burdened," meaning at least 30% of their income goes to housing. In some cities, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/cities-wage-growth-rent-increases-texas-housing-costs-florida-nyc-2024-5">higher rents are also outpacing wages</a>.</p><p>While Trump has called for the construction of more housing — which would include rental units and homes — he has not provided details about how his plan would specifically impact renters. While in office,<strong> </strong>Trump <a target="_blank" href="https://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/documents/executive-order-13945-fighting-the-spread-covid-19-providing-assistance-renters-and#:~:text=Prior%20to%20passage%20of%20the%20Coronavirus%20Aid,">implemented</a> a temporary eviction moratorium to keep Americans housed during the pandemic.</p>

How the cost of housing is expected to change under Trump or Harris

An additional 6.4 crore <keyword id="41366" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="homes" source="Orion">homes</keyword> are required by 2036 because of growth in <keyword id="48933" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="population" source="Orion">population</keyword>, according to CREDAI-Liases Foras. Realtors' apex body CREDAI, in collaboration with data analytic firm Liases Foras, launched an industry report at the New India Summit held in Varanasi. <br /><br /> The additional housing requirement by 2036 due to the population growth is 64 million in India," the joint report said. <br /><br /> In 2018, the housing shortage in India was 29 million <keyword id="6362117" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="houses" source="Orion">houses</keyword>, it pointed out. <br /><br /> "Therefore, the total estimated housing <keyword id="6358993" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="demand" source="Orion">demand</keyword> by 2036 in India is 93 million," CREDAI-Liases Foras report said. <br /><br /> The report mentioned that it is widely expected that the next wave of <keyword id="6354553" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="real-estate" source="Orion">real estate</keyword> growth will stem from Tier II, III regions. <br /><br /> Housing demand was strong last year, which also witnessed over 19,050 RERA registrations at Pan-India level with 45 per cent projects falling in the residential segment. <br /><br /> Boman Irani, President, CREDAI, said, "The rapidly growing Indian population and economy has resulted in accelerated demand and <keyword id="46639" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="supply" source="Orion">supply</keyword> of homes, while also improving home buyers' purchasing power and inclining them to buy bigger houses." <br /><br /> Housing in tier II and III cities will witness a sharper trajectory, he said. <br /><br /> Manoj Gaur, Chairman, CREDAI, said: "2023 was a remarkable year for all real estate stakeholders and we expect this demand trajectory to sustain in 2024 and beyond." <br /><br /> Pankaj Kapoor, Founder and Managing Director, Liases Foras, said, "Indian real estate currently stands at an extremely important junction with sustained demand and supply greatly contributing to the GDP while showcasing a definitive way forward for reaching the USD 5 trillion goal."

Additional 6.4 crore homes required by 2036 because of population growth: CREDAI-Liases Foras

New Delhi, Leasing of industrial &amp; warehousing space fell 12 per cent during the July-September period to 6.2 million square feet across five major cities on lower demand in Delhi-NCR and Bengaluru, according to Colliers India.  The leasing of industrial and warehousing space stood at 7 million square feet in the year-ago period. <br /><br /> During the January-September period, the demand fell 4 per cent to 17.2 million square feet from 18 million square feet in the corresponding period of the previous year. <br /><br /> According to Colliers data, the leasing of industrial &amp; warehousing space in Chennai jumped more than 3-fold to 1.8 million square feet during the July-September period from 0.5 million square feet in the year-ago period. The demand rose 60 per cent to 3.5 million square feet during the January-September period over 2.2 million square feet in the corresponding period in the previous year. <br /><br /> In Mumbai, the demand jumped over 2-fold to 1.2 million square feet in the third quarter from 0.5 million square feet in the year-ago period. During the first nine months of this year, the leasing rose 48 per cent to 3.9 million square feet from 2.7 million square feet. <br /><br /> The leasing of industrial &amp; warehousing space in Pune increased 22 per cent to 1.6 million square feet during July-September from 1.3 million square feet in the year-ago period. Pune saw a marginal rise of 1 per cent to 4.1 million square feet in January-September from 4 million square feet in the corresponding period of the previous year. <br /><br /> In Delhi-NCR, the demand fell 76 per cent to 0.9 million square feet during July-September from 3.8 million square feet a year ago. The leasing fell 46 per cent to 3.7 million square feet during January-September from 6.8 million square feet in the corresponding period of the previous year. <br /><br /> The demand for industrial &amp; warehousing spaces in Bengaluru was down 21 per cent to 0.7 million square feet in July-September from 0.9 million square feet in the year-ago period. The leasing declined 10 per cent to 2 million square feet during the first nine months this year as against 2.3 million square feet in the corresponding period of the previous year. <br /><br /> The consultant said third-party logistic (3PL) players continued to dominate demand during the January-September period at 40 per cent share followed by engineering players garnering 17 per cent. <br /><br /> At the same time, leasing by FMCG jumped over two-fold as they expanded their presence in key markets such as Delhi-NCR and Pune. <br /><br /> The rise in leasing levels for the FMCG sector largely pertains to the spurt in consumption levels over the last two quarters, which is likely to continue in the last quarter as well, led by the upcoming festive season, it added.

Industrial, warehousing space demand falls 12% in September quarter in 5 cities: Colliers

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Home-list prices are dropping in some of America's most popular cities.</li><li>Metros in Florida, Texas, and other states are seeing prices fall by as much as 12%, per Realtor.com.</li></ul>Home-list prices are tumbling in a handful of <keyword id="23582895" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Pandemic-boomtowns" source="keywords">pandemic boomtowns</keyword>, thanks to a buildup of inventory that's beginning to exceed the level of demand. <br /><br />Home-listprices have dropped as much as 12% in metros throughout the US, according to data from <a target="_blank" href="http://Realtor.com">Realtor.com</a>. That's a steeper decline compared to the rest of the country, with the national median <a target="_blank" href="https://www.realtor.com/research/september-2024-data/#:~:text=The%20national%20median%20list%20price,of%201.3%25%20to%204.1%25.">home-listprice falling just 1% year-over-year</a> in September, the <keyword id="19895040" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Real-estate" source="keywords">real estate</keyword> listings site said in a report.<br /><br /><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/real-estate-home-prices-correction-housing-market-buying-a-house-2024-7">Demand in some pandemic boomtowns</a> has fallen over the past year, as states like <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/florida-housing-market-sales-weather-climate-change-retirement-pandemic-costs-2024-9">Florida</a> and <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/texas-housing-market-home-prices-falling-austin-dallas-moving-trends-2024-10">Texas</a> see issues like a rising cost of living, weather events, and tense political climates that have caused some residents to sour on the state.<br /><br />Here are the top 10 cities where home-listprices are falling the most, according to Realtor.com. <br /><br /><h2>1. Miami, Florida</h2>  <div type="image" title="Miami skyline" height="1500" width="3000" msid="114157422" hostid="261"></div>Median list price: $525,000<br /><br />Change from last year: -12.4%<br /><br /><h2>2. <strong>Cincinnati</strong>, Ohio</h2>  <div type="image" title="Cincinnati skyline" height="2970" width="5430" msid="114157415" hostid="261"></div>Median list price: $337,000<br /><br />Change from last year: -9.5%<br /><br /><h2>3. San Francisco, California</h2>  <div type="image" title="San Francisco skyline" height="2962" width="5627" msid="114157432" hostid="261"></div>Median list price: $997,500<br /><br />Change from last year: -8.9%<br /><br /><h2>4. Kansas City, Missouri</h2>  <div type="image" title="Kansas city" height="2600" width="5200" msid="114157412" hostid="261"></div>Median list price: $389,500<br /><br />Change from last year: -8.4%<br /><br /><h2>5. Austin, Texas</h2>  <div type="image" title="Austin skyline" height="3630" width="5449" msid="114157434" hostid="261"></div>Median list price: $520,000<br /><br />Change from last year: -6.6%<br /><br /><h2>6. Jacksonville, Florida</h2>  <div type="image" title="Jacksonville skyline" height="2863" width="5725" msid="114157419" hostid="261"></div>Median list price: $399,000<br /><br />Change from last year: -6.1%<br /><br /><h2>7. Denver, Colorado</h2>  <div type="image" title="Denver skyline" height="2250" width="4500" msid="114157417" hostid="261"></div>Median list price: $610,250<br /><br />Change from last year: -6%<br /><br /><h2>8. Orlando, Florida</h2>  <div type="image" title="Orlando skyline" height="2160" width="4320" msid="114157424" hostid="261"></div>Median list price: $429,950<br /><br />Change from last year: -5.6%<br /><br /><h2>9. Tampa, Florida</h2>  <div type="image" title="Tampa skyline" height="2565" width="5130" msid="114157428" hostid="261"></div>Median list price: $414,948<br /><br />Change from last year: -5.5%<br /><br /><h2>10. Nashville, Tennessee</h2>  <div type="image" title="Nashville skyline" height="2559" width="5118" msid="114157429" hostid="261"></div>Median list price: $547,865<br /><br />Change from last year: -5.4%<br /><br /><i>Editor’s note: October 12, 2024 </i><i>—</i><i> This story has been updated to clarify that the </i><a href="http://realtor.com/" target="_blank"><i>Realtor.com</i></a><i> data shows home-listing prices.</i><br />

Home-listing prices are down as much as 12% in boomtowns in Florida, Texas, and other popular states

<ul class="summary-list"><li>High housing costs, driven in large part by a shortage of homes, are keeping inflation sticky.</li><li>Trump has pledged to lower housing costs.</li></ul><p>Housing costs were responsible for about 2/3 of <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/inflation-october-cpi-consumer-price-index-federal-reserve-interest-rates-2024-11">overall inflation</a> over the past year.</p><p>President-elect Donald Trump has promised to lower those costs, and economists think some of his policy proposals could do just that. The most promising are cutting federal regulations on construction, opening up federal land for housing, and lowering energy costs.</p><p>However, his proposals to increase tariffs, deport millions of immigrants, and cut housing assistance could increase home prices and rents. The inflationary effects of these policies could prevent the Federal Reserve from <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/fed-rate-cuts-uncertainty-trump-presidency-inflation-tariffs-2024-11">continuing to cut interest rates</a>.</p><p>Ultimately, housing policy experts and industry leaders say housing costs will largely depend on how much new supply can be delivered to the market, which is suffering from a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://zillow.mediaroom.com/2024-06-18-The-U-S-is-now-short-4-5-million-homes-as-the-housing-deficit-grows">severe shortage of homes</a>.</p><p>Karoline Leavitt, a spokesperson for the Trump-Vance transition team, told Business Insider in a statement that Trump "will deliver" on "lowering housing costs for all Americans."</p><p>Here are the major Trump proposals and how they're expected to affect housing costs.</p><h2 id="83e6f785-033e-42e0-9de6-8470b9cef43d"><strong>Regulations</strong></h2><p>Trump has <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://singjupost.com/full-transcript-trump-speaks-at-the-economic-club-of-new-york/?singlepage=1">promised</a> to reduce federal regulations that make home building more costly "with the goal of cutting the cost of a new home in half," he said.</p><p>When it comes to housing, state and local governments <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/america-build-like-tokyo-housing-crisis-doom-loop-2023-10">control the majority of regulations</a> that most inflate housing costs by limiting or slowing down construction. But federal regulations also play a role. Jim Tobin, CEO of the National Association of Home Builders, told Business Insider that he'd like Trump to roll back some of the Biden administration's energy efficiency requirements, streamline regulations under the Clean Water Act, and loosen a requirement that Federal Housing Administration borrowers' homes be up to code.</p><p>But Trump hasn't always favored cutting regulations to encourage more development. During his first term, he rescinded <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/23/us/politics/trump-housing-discrimination-suburbs.html">an Obama-era</a> rule designed to reduce racial segregation and said he would <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.politico.com/news/2020/07/29/trump-housing-policy-low-income-suburbs-386414">protect the suburbs</a> from low-income housing by allowing them to maintain strict local zoning laws. Experts say that if Trump continues to protect single-family zoning, that would further limit construction.</p><p>"We need all options on the table when it comes to increasing housing supply, which means allowing more density in suburbs or cities to allow more units to be produced," Tobin said.</p><h2 id="433280bd-da72-477a-a5b0-a9fb98993d77"><strong>Building on federal land</strong></h2><p>Last year, Trump rolled out a plan to build up to <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-freedom-cities-build-housing-conservatives-scoff-at-leftist-plan-2023-3">10 "freedom cities"</a> on federal land, featuring plentiful single-family homes. Since then, the president-elect has said his second administration would create "ultra-low tax and ultra-low regulation" zones on federal land for "large-scale housing construction."</p><p>There's some bipartisan support for building homes on federal land, and housing experts say the proposal has the potential to increase the housing supply, particularly in Western states like Nevada, Arizona, and Utah, which have large tracts of federally owned land.</p><p>"Building towards affordable housing on these lands could have a transformative impact, especially because land costs are a major barrier," Maurice Page, executive director of the nonpartisan Nevada Housing Coalition, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/homes-free-government-land-real-estate-housing-prices-harris-trump-2024-8">recently told Business Insider</a>.</p><h2 id="3071e368-bbc9-4dcc-9220-fad6b12c7c9f"><strong>Energy costs</strong></h2><p>Vice President-elect JD Vance <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9pPCCh_t4h8">has promised</a> that the Trump administration would boost home building in part by drilling for more oil and making energy cheaper. Construction industry experts and economists say lower energy costs wouldn't hurt affordability but likely <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/jd-vance-drilling-oil-housing-rent-home-prices-construction-2024-10">wouldn't significantly increase construction or bring housing costs down</a>.</p><p>"Energy prices are significant, but they're not as significant as many other inputs," Anirban Basu, chief economist at the construction industry trade group Associated Builders and Contractors, recently told Business Insider.</p><h2 id="0aab8f5a-24a4-4d4b-af03-aa4d6c484f8b"><strong>Interest rates</strong></h2><p>Trump has repeatedly said that his administration would tame inflation and, therefore, lower interest rates. During <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://singjupost.com/full-transcript-trump-speaks-at-the-economic-club-of-new-york/?singlepage=1">a speech</a> at the Economic Club of New York in September he said he'd bring mortgage interest rates down to 3% or lower. His say over rates is limited; the Federal Reserve controls interest rates and operates <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.nytimes.com/2024/08/01/business/economy/trump-interest-rates-fed.html">independently of the president</a>.</p><p>Tobin said he expects mortgage rates will settle into a "new normal" of about 5 to 5.5% by 2026, lower than the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/us-30-year-fixed-rate-mortgage-rise-four-month-high-679-2024-11-07/">current 30-year fixed rate of 6.79%</a> but above the prepandemic average. "It's going to be a bumpy ride down," he added, noting that mortgage rates <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.nytimes.com/2024/11/11/business/economy/mortgage-rates-trump-inflation.html">recently rose</a> to a four-month high even as the Federal Reserve cut its benchmark interest rates.</p><p>Many economists say that Trump's proposals to cut taxes, impose significant new tariffs on imports, and deport millions of immigrants <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/donald-trump-election-win-high-inflation-risk-tariffs-deportations-taxes-2024-11">would have an inflationary effect</a> and discourage the Federal Reserve — <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-inflation-interest-rates-fed-rate-cuts-fomc-meeting-outlook-2024-11">whose independence</a> Trump has threatened — from further cutting rates.</p><p>When it comes to housing costs, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/buying-home-not-easier-interest-rate-cuts-prices-rent-crisis-2024-8">many economists say</a> that even if mortgage rates come down, that could spur additional demand for housing, sending prices further up.</p><h2 id="4cba3ba3-082c-4c85-9e1e-0317e4daa343"><strong>Tariffs</strong></h2><p>Trump <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.nytimes.com/2024/09/10/us/politics/trump-enthusiasm-tariffs.html">campaigned</a> on imposing a 60% tax on products from China and 10 to 20% tariffs on most other foreign goods. These include key building materials like lumber and steel, which make up a significant portion of the cost of building a home. Tariffs would also impact the prices of other materials and finished products, like air conditioning units and garage doors.</p><p>Biden has kept some of those tariffs in place and even <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.npr.org/sections/money/2021/12/07/1061329725/why-is-the-biden-administration-increasing-the-cost-of-building-houses">raised taxes on Canadian softwood lumber</a>, which is crucial to the US home-building industry. Expanding the tariffs further would likely drive up building costs.</p><p>"If there are huge tariffs getting thrown around, that really hurts home builders," Ben Metcalf, a housing policy expert at UC Berkeley, told Business Insider. "those could be huge drags on cost and therefore on supply."</p><h2 id="3fbffb09-3764-4c37-b965-c4165bd9b487"><strong>Mass deportations</strong></h2><p>Trump and Vance have repeatedly argued that their plans to deport millions of immigrants will alleviate housing affordability issues by lowering demand.</p><p>But many <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/jd-vance-said-migrants-to-blame-for-expensive-homes-wrong-2024-8">economists</a> <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.nytimes.com/2024/10/11/business/economy/trump-housing-crisis-deportations.html">disagree</a> and posit that mass deportations would actually inflate housing costs. The construction industry is already short around <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/housing-crisis-national-shortage-construction-workers-job-demand-2024-5">500,000 workers</a>, and a further reduction in the labor force would <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-deportations-immigration-homebuilders-remove-construction-workers-spike-costs-2024-11">slow down construction and inflate prices even more</a>. Immigrants are a key part of building housing as they make up <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://eyeonhousing.org/2023/12/immigrant-share-in-construction-highest-on-record/">about a quarter</a> of the construction workforce. An <a target="_blank" rel=" nofollow" class="" href="https://www.constructiondive.com/news/construction-workers-undocumented-presidential-election/729556/#:~:text=Immigrants%20entering%20the%20country%20illegally,all%20workers%20in%20construction%20jobs."><u>estimated 15 to 23%</u></a> of that overall workforce are undocumented immigrants.</p><p>"Just even the talk of mass deportations could send a chill through the entire immigrant employment sector," Tobin said. "Anything that constricts labor in the country will have an impact on us meeting those housing goals over the next few years."</p><h2 id="f3107caf-cafa-4d60-ad2b-15ff8c5770a5"><strong>Federal housing assistance</strong></h2><p>During his first term, Trump repeatedly proposed major cuts to housing assistance for households with low incomes or members with disabilities. In <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.brookings.edu/articles/trump-administration-budgets-and-programs-for-people-of-limited-means/#housing-and-rental-assistance">each of his annual budgets</a>, he proposed stripping funding from many rental and homeownership assistance programs, including significantly cutting back on housing vouchers and <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2018/04/25/hud-secretary-ben-carson-to-propose-raising-rent-for-low-income-americans-receiving-federal-housing-subsidies/">raising rent on low-income households</a> that receive federal aid.</p><p>All of Trump's budgets also proposed dramatically cutting federal funding for programs that help build and renovate affordable housing. While Congress didn't approve those cuts, policy experts expect the next Trump administration to pursue the same goals. This would make it harder for lower-income Americans to afford homes and slow down affordable housing construction.</p><p>"I just don't think there's any interest by Trump or by a Republican Congress in investing in certain traditional HUD programs and investments," Metcalf said.</p>

4 ways Trump's housing plans are expected to hurt homebuyers and 3 ways they could help

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Trump wanted Republicans to threaten a government shutdown just weeks before the election.</li><li>He pressed them to force the passage of a bill to require proof of citizenship to register to vote.</li></ul><p>House Speaker Mike Johnson is teeing up a vote this week on a bill to fund the government for the next few months.</p><p>The so-called "continuing resolution," which will fund the government at current levels through December 20, also <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://rules.house.gov/sites/evo-subsites/rules.house.gov/files/documents/cr1fy25_xml-final-for-introduction_0.pdf">includes</a> an additional $231 million for the Secret Service in the wake of <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-shots-fired-florida-golf-course-2024-9">two recent attempts to assassinate</a> former President Donald Trump.</p><p>Yet Johnson, and any other Republican who votes for this bill, will be quietly defying Trump's wishes just weeks before the 2024 election.</p><h2 id="61102b88-9a2d-4783-bb7a-50da0658f290">Trump wanted Republicans to threaten a shutdown</h2><p>Government funding is set to expire on September 30, and lawmakers on Capitol Hill have been working to come to an agreement on how to keep the lights on.</p><p>In a bid to appease his party's right flank, Johnson first tried to pass a bill that would have funded the government through March and included legislation known as the "SAVE Act," which would require people to produce proof of citizenship when they register to vote in federal elections.</p><p>Democrats almost unanimously oppose that bill, and there's no evidence of widespread non-citizen voting in federal elections. But the measure was seen as enticing for hardline conservatives, who typically don't support short-term funding bills.</p><p>Last Wednesday, Trump entered the fray, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/113160048992786010">writing on Truth Social</a> that Republicans "should not agree to a Continuing Resolution in any way, shape, or form" if doesn't include the SAVE Act.</p><p>In essence, Trump asked Republicans to threaten a government shutdown over the provision. Yet when the continuing resolution <em>with</em> the SAVE Act came up for a vote last week, it failed, with 14 Republicans voting against it.</p><p>So on Sunday, Johnson pivoted, writing in a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://x.com/Olivia_Beavers/status/1837960553391616233">letter to colleagues</a> that "an alternative plan is now required."</p><h2 id="ab872e6e-cfa1-4ab4-86ea-f5567e76f923">Many Republicans simply don't want to have this fight right now</h2><p>Despite Trump's push, Republicans on Capitol Hill understand that actually following his lead would be reckless.</p><p>As Johnson wrote in his letter, "shutting the government down less than 40 days from a fateful election would be an act of political malpractice."</p><p>Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell made a similar point last week, telling reporters it would be "politically, beyond stupid" to shut down the government and that "certainly" Republicans would be blamed.</p><p>It's also the latest example of how Trump, despite having a firm grip over the party as a whole, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-wont-pick-mcconnells-successor-recall-jim-jordans-speaker-bid-2024-2">isn't always the most influential voice</a> among Republicans on Capitol Hill.</p><p>It's certainly possible that most Republicans will vote against Johnson's new government funding bill. It's <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/more-democrats-republicans-vote-government-shutdown-debt-ceilling-fourth-time-2024-1">happened several times</a> since Republicans took control of the House in 2023.</p><p>But the chances of a shutdown before the election are now essentially zero.</p><p>The bill is expected to pass the House this week, after which it will easily pass the Senate (though some Republicans may drag out the process) and head to President Joe Biden's desk for his signature.</p>

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