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More than nine in 10 executives at electric utilities believe that <keyword id="6361617" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="20" keywordseo="climate-change">climate change</keyword> has contributed to increased extreme weather events that their electricity networks have experienced over the past 10 years, said a study by <keyword id="6370971" type="ORGANIZATION" weightage="20" keywordseo="accenture">Accenture</keyword>.<br /><br />In addition, 90 per cent believe an expected rise in severe weather poses an increased financial risk to their grid businesses.<br /><br />The study -- the sixth edition of Accenture's Digitally Enabled Grid research -- is based on a survey of more than 200 electric utility executives in 28 countries, including India.<br /><br />"Around the world, high-impact weather-related events are becoming more frequent and more severe. In 2018, India's southern state of Kerala suffered its worst monsoon flooding in a century severely impacting the electricity distribution infrastructure in the flood-ravaged areas," Sanjeev Arora, Managing Director and Lead -- Resources, Accenture in India, said in a statement.<br /><br />"Events like this and Cyclone Fani in 2019 in eastern India have shown us the impact of extreme weather conditions in disrupting network operations," Arora said.<br /><br />About 92 per cent survey respondents said they expect severe weather to increase in the next 10 years.<br /><br />At the same time, 88 per cent said maintaining network resilience to extreme weather will result in significant increases in network prices for customers, while only one-quarter of the respondents believe that their businesses are very well prepared to deal with the impact of extreme weather, with one in 12 reporting being poorly prepared.<br /><br />"With various parts of the world affected by droughts, wildfires, and flooding in addition to the U.S. hurricane season just around the corner, climate change is increasing the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events and impacting the electricity grid," said Stephanie Jamison, a global industry senior managing director who leads Accenture's Utilities business.<br /><br />"Greater system flexibility, delivered through digital and emerging technologies, will be critical to optimising grid resilience in a cost-effective and timely manner," Jamison added.<br /><br />More than nine in 10 respondents (95%) believe that building greater adaptability into the network -- such as network reconfiguration, embedded storage, redundancy and voltage management -- over the next 10 years will be critical to increasing overall resilience.<br /><br />Further, 93 per cent see system flexibility as the most cost-effective approach to deliver long-term resilience.<br /><br />"Utilities need a forward-looking, holistic and flexible grid resilience strategy, with right regulatory measures, proactive investments and maintenance, to bounce back quickly from major and even multiple events -- whether it's from extreme weather, cyberattacks, earthquakes or even a pandemic," Arora said.<br /><br />SEE ALSO:<br /><a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/tech/news/uber-ride-in-gurgaon-of-driver-seat-in-plastic-goes-viral-on-tiktok-and-instagram/articleshow/75771489.cms">Video of an Uber ride is all the rage on TikTok and Instagram ⁠— the driver got himself a cockpit covered in plastic</a><br /><br /><a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/india/news/at-least-24-migrant-workers-killed-and-36-injured-on-their-way-home-from-rajasthan/articleshow/75770823.cms">At least 24 migrant workers killed and 36 injured on their way home from Rajasthan</a><br /><br /><a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/careers/news/indian-women-dont-like-being-gig-workers/articleshow/75757460.cms">Indian women don’t like being gig workers ⁠— the potentially $455 billion industry has to woo them with fair pay to start with</a><br />

Severe weather threatens India's electricity infrastructure —  the threats have been building up over the last 10 years

<ul><li><strong>The return of El Niño later this year could spark downside volatility in the stock market, according to Charles Schwab.</strong></li><li><strong>The firm said extreme weather could exacerbate supply chain disruptions and lead to persistent inflation and a falling stock market.</strong></li><li><strong>The last El <strong>Niño event in 2015 coincided with a global stock market sell-off that extended into 2016.</strong></strong></li></ul><p>Extreme weather events could sabotage the economy and stock market later this year <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/india/news/el-nino-on-the-way-could-wipe-out-3-trillion-of-world-economy/articleshow/100392049.cms" target="_blank" rel="noopener">as the world prepares for a possible El Niño event,</a> according to Charles Schwab chief global investment strategist Jeffrey Kleintop.</p><p>The arrival of El Niño later this year has surged to a 90% probability, according to The World Meteorological Organization, which could lead to shifts in temperatures and global weather patterns. Already, it seems to be having an impact. </p><p>Heat waves across the globe have led <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/river-rhine-europe-energy-germany-heatwave-climate-water-shipping-coal-2022-7">to low water levels in certain rivers that facilitate the transport of goods via barges,</a> which in some cases could not traverse the drained rivers. In France, th Rhone river has been too hot to cool down the nuclear reactors for Electricite de France, which has led to shutdowns and lower power output. </p><p>These extreme weather events can have a material impact on the economy and lead to persistent inflation, higher interest rates, and ultimately a lower stock market, according to Kleintop. </p><p>"If these impacts continue to threaten agriculture, energy, and lives, or worsen — as forecasters expect — the economic impact could be significant for both inflation and economic activity," Kleintop said in <a href="https://www.schwab.com/learn/story/el-nino-could-bring-storms-to-markets" target="_blank" rel="noopener">a Monday note.</a></p><p>Higher energy prices could be exacerbated by low water levers in reservoirs due to extreme heat, which would curtail hydropower generation and put an additional strain on power supplies, putting upward price pressure on energy alternatives like coal and natural gas. </p><p>And if water levels in key rivers are too low to facilitate the transfer of goods, that could lead to heightened freight transportation costs as trucking and rails are forced to pick up the slack.</p><p>All of this potential inflation in energy and food costs, caused by extreme weather events, could force central banks to keep interest rates higher for longer to combat inflation.</p><p>"High food prices could filter through to wages if they persist, which could sustain core inflation at higher levels, and result in data-driven central banks to keep monetary policy tight," Kleintop said.</p><p>There are more obvious risks to the economy sparked by extreme weather events, like hurricanes and the losses experienced by the people in the path of the storms and the insurance companies that have exposure to the area. Such exposure has recently forced big insurance companies <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/personal-finance/farmers-insurance-florida-stops-home-auto-insurance-2023-7">to completely exit certain markets in Florida and California.</a></p><p>All of these factors sparked by El Niño and the extreme weather could ultimately lead to a lower stock market, as has happened in the past.</p><p>"Market volatility could increase if El Niño impacts accumulate. The last El Niño coincided with the market selling off 13% in 2015 to 2016, although other factors likely contributed to the volatility," Kleintop said.</p>

There are storm clouds on the horizon for the stock market - literally

<p><div class="KonaFilter image-container click-to-enlarge"><div class="image"><a title_source="BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research, Google " title_caption="" class="zoomin" href="http://static1.businessinsider.com/image/52fe7092ecad048f5b063b85-960/screen%20shot%202014-02-14%20at%202.37.07%20pm.png"><span class="sprites click-to-enlarge-icon" title="Click to enlarge"></span></a><p class="source"><span>BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research, Google </span></p></div><p></p></div></p>
<p><span style="line-height: 1.5em;">BofA Merrill Lynch economist Ethan Harris has turned to an interesting metric in order to discern the impact of an unusually harsh winter this year on the economy: Google searches for the phrase "school closings," which this month hit the highest level on record.</span></p>
<p><span style="line-height: 1.5em;">A number of marquee indicators - including nonfarm payroll employment, retail sales, and industrial production - have disappointed relative to consensus estimates, and many lay the blame, at least in part, on the weather.</span></p>
<p>Harris, like many other market economists, has found this effect difficult to model, namely because "national temperature and precipitation data don't fully capture how the weather impacts the economy."</p>
<p>"Consider two kinds of weather events with the same temperature and precipitation: light icy rain in Atlanta and light snow in Boston," says Harris.</p>
<p>"The first event shuts down a major city; the second event has no discernible impact."</p>
<p>So, Harris has turned to Google searches, the usefulness of which he explains in his latest note to clients.</p>
<p><span style="line-height: 1.5em;">"We think this is a good measure of economic </span><span style="line-height: 1.5em;">disruption because it proxies for working parents staying at home and sharply </span><span style="line-height: 1.5em;">reduced travel in general," he says.</span></p>
<p><span style="line-height: 1.5em;">"The data only go back to 2004, so it is hard prove a </span><span style="line-height: 1.5em;">statistical link to the economy, but the numbers are impressive: this December </span><span style="line-height: 1.5em;">and January had the most queries about school closings in the nine years of data. </span><span style="line-height: 1.5em;">We also find unusually high readings for other queries we test, including 'ice', '</span><span style="line-height: 1.5em;">weather' and 'flight cancellations'."</span></p>
<p><span style="line-height: 1.5em;">Given the recent spike in weather-related search queries like these, Harris is saying what many others across the Street are saying as well: investors may have to wait until April, when economic data for the month of March are released, to get a clean read on the economy.</span></p>

How Google Searches For 'School Closings' Explain The Relationship Between Weather And The Economy

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Violent weather events are driving down real estate values in Texas, Florida, and Louisiana, according to Capital Economics.</li><li>Property-insurance costs have grown at the fastest rate in 20-years due to billion-dollar storm damages, the firm said.</li></ul><p>The rise in violent weather events over the past few years are driving <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/florida-housing-market-outlook-nightmare-home-prices-mortgage-rates-affordability-2024-7">a decline in real estate values in Texas, Florida,</a> and Louisiana, according to a recent note from Capital Economics.</p><p>Much of that is due to surging property-insurance costs in the wake of severe storms and hurricanes. Premium growth recently reached a 20-year high, the research firm said.</p><p>"Last year the US saw 28 extreme weather events where damage exceeded $1 billion, over three times the usual number in the past half-century," economist Imogen Pattison of Capital Economics said.</p><p>Already this year, there have been 15 storm events that each caused more than $1 billion in damage. Just a few weeks ago, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/texas-houston-whataburger-app-hurricane-beryl-power-outages-supply-electricity-2024-7">Hurricane Beryl</a> — which was the earliest-formed Category 5 hurricane in Atlantic history — caused an estimated $2.7 billion in damages, according to <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.reuters.com/world/us/damage-hurricane-beryl-may-cost-insurers-27-bln-us-kcc-says-2024-07-11/">Karen Clark &amp; Co.</a></p><p>That nearly $3 billion in damages from just one hurricane is ultimately what insurance companies will lose, and to make up for that and many other storm-related losses, they're jacking up insurance premiums in a big way.</p><p>"The steady rise in the frequency and intensity of natural disasters has had a dramatic impact on insurance premia for US real estate as insurers have scrambled to price-in physical risks," Pattison explained. "Others have withdrawn from particular markets altogether, causing a further climb in prices amongst those left behind."</p><p>According to data from MSCI, insurance costs in Florida have more than doubled from less than 2% of income receivable in 2017 to 4.5% at the end of 2023.</p><p>And those higher costs have ultimately helped drag down property values in impacted regions, especially in the multifamily sector.</p><p>An analysis from CBRE found that the most impacted coastal regions of Florida, Texas, and Louisiana saw a real-estate-value drop of 7% since the end of 2019 for multifamily buildings, which is about double the national average of -3.6%.</p><div type="image" title="Real estate values dropping" height="484" width="1084" msid="112247912" hostid="261" sizebytes="32458"></div><p>But there has been a sign of hope in that the rate of growth in insurance costs appears to have peaked, according to Pattison. But she says the ongoing trend of violent weather could still exacerbate the issue in the future, further driving real estate values down in the most impacted regions.</p><p>"We suspect many of the most at-risk regions will see a worsening of weather conditions over the next 30 years. While the immediate impact of the rise in extreme events on insurance costs seems to be cooling, future climate-related risk will likely leave premium growth above its historic average," Pattison said.</p>

Real estate values in Texas and Florida are being hit by violent weather as insurance costs spike

<p><div class="KonaFilter image-container float_right"><div class="image on-image"><p class="source"><span>AP Photo/Hermann J. Knippertz</span></p></div><p></p></div>Coffee prices are up about <a href="http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052702303825604579517604249104072?mg=reno64-wsj&amp;url=http%3A%2F%2Fonline.wsj.com%2Farticle%2FSB10001424052702303825604579517604249104072.html&amp;fpid=2,7,121,122,201,401,641,1009">90% year-to-date</a>.</p>
<p>A drought in <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/coffee-prices-surge-on-brazil-drought-2014-2">Brazil</a> and <a href="http://insidecostarica.com/2014/04/01/central-americas-coffee-woes/">leaf rust</a> in parts of Central America have helped push prices higher. </p>
<p>And now El Niño is coming. </p>
<p>El Niño is a weather phenomenon that tends to bring dry weather to Asia and Australia, and a lot wetter conditions to South America. </p>
<p>"If El Niño leads to lower output from Indonesia and Vietnam (25% of global coffee production) as seems likely, prices may stay high for longer," writes Caroline Bain at Capital Economics.</p>
<p>That being said El Niño is a "transient event," and prices should weaken as weather conditions normalize.</p>
<p>Meanwhile, inventory of sugar and rice are at "comfortable levels," and dry weather in South East Asia and Australia isn't expected to see much of an impact on those commodities, according to Bain.</p>

Why El Nino Could Mean More Bad News For Coffee Prices

<p>Extreme weather events are on the rise.</p><p>The frequencies of droughts, extreme temperatures, floods, and wildfires have increased over the last 60 years, which can be seen in this chart shared by HSBC's climate change strategist Ashim Paun:</p><p><div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table"><div><div class="image"><p class="source"><span>HSBC</span></p></div><p></p></div></div><span>Scientists</span><span> have studied</span><span> the influence of human behavior on these kinds of extreme events</span><span>. The </span><span>HSBC analysts cited a paper from the American Meteorological Society that found that half of the 36 extreme weather events from 2014 analyzed in the study increased in likelihood due to anthropogenic influence.</span></p><p>Still, there remain uncertainties about human influence on some natural events. For example, there appears to be a correlation between the increase in the number of floods and the rise in temperatures - but the AMS found that anthropogenic influence on the strength and likelihood of floods is unclear.</p><p><div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table"><div><div class="image"><p class="source"><span>HSBC</span></p></div><p></p></div></div></p><p>Extreme weather events can have significant economic effects. They can cause damage to infrastructure, residential areas, and the assets and activities of companies, which can <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/hsiang-and-jian-hurricane-long-term-effects-2014-8">hamper economic growth</a> and development, especially if there is no prepared response plan.</p><p>The HSBC team estimates the cumulative damage from events relating to climate change from 2005-2014 cost the G20 countries $309 billion. 39% of costs were incurred by China, followed by the US (22%) and India (11%).</p><p>Damage costs totaled $44 billion in 2014 alone. $11 billion of those costs came from droughts and a whopping $31 billion from floods, according to HSBC.</p><p>"The dominance of floods and droughts added together, amongst categories of extreme events, illustrates how changing rainfall patterns are currently the driver for a major component of total extreme weather events and associated costs suffered. We expect flooding to become more common as climate impacts increase," HSBC analysts noted.</p><p><div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table"><div><div class="image"><p class="source"><span>HSBC</span></p></div><p></p></div></div></p><p>Notably, although some of these natural disasters may not affect the US directly, they may end up hitting the US economy indirectly.</p><p>For example, <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/citi-future-opportunities-future-shocks-2014-10?op=1">the rise in major natural disasters can put supply chains at risk</a>, as was the case in 2011 when h<span>eavy rain forced many factories in Thailand - a major hub for hard disk drives - to close down. That led worldwide hard drive production to drop by 28% and the production of notebooks, digital video recorders, and other devices to stall. Intel's profits fell by $1 billion in Q4 2011. </span></p><p>In short, extreme weather is on the rise - and it could hit the economy.</p>    <div class="margin-top">        <h3>NOW WATCH: <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/this-lake-is-bright-pink-2016-3">This lake is bright pink, and no one knows why</a></h3>        <div>            <div>        <div class="ooyala-video-player" data-video-autoplay="false" data-video-id="40N2E1MjE6fqlcIqTaT6mOuGDjrF1y0s" data-player-variable="ooyalapopvideo" id="ooyalaplayer_popvideo" style="width:1280px;height:720px"></div>        </div>        </div>            </div>

Extreme weather events are on the rise

<p><span style="font-size: 15px; line-height: 1.5em;">Several emerging markets remain highly vulnerable to a large weather event turning into a natural disaster, according to a new report by the <keyword id="27263" type="ORGANIZATION" weightage="60" keywordseo="risk">risk</keyword> analysis company </span><a href="%20http://maplecroft.com/about/news/nha_2013.html">Maplecroft</a><span style="font-size: 15px; line-height: 1.5em;">.</span></p>
<p>And given that <a href="http://www.nasa.gov/centers/langley/science/climate_assessment_2012.html">NASA predicts</a> a future of increasingly extreme weather events, countries better get on it.</p>
<p>Maplecroft's 2013 Risk Atlas atlas ranks 197 countries on their physical and economic exposure to 12 different natural hazards (e.g. flooding, tropical cyclones, earthquakes), as well as their resilience to the socio-economic impacts of a destructive natural event.</p>
<p>The countries with high (but not extreme) resilience risk — i.e. those in which a natural hazard can quickly become a costly natural disaster — include several emerging markets in Asia: Bangladesh, India, Indonesia, the Philippines, Vietnam, and China.</p>
<p>The analysis notes that China and the Philippines (followed by India and Indonesia) "have the most globally significant concentrations of economic assets exposed to major natural hazards."</p>
<p><div class="image-container" style="width:940px"><div class="image"></div><p class="source"><a href="http://maplecroft.com/">Maplecroft</a></p></div><span>"<strong>These countries are not only exposed to multiple devastating hazards, but lack resilience to the impacts and show a poor capacity to bounce back, which could undermine economic growth; disrupt business operations and supply chains</strong>," according to the analysis.</span></p>
<p>To demonstrate the impact of resilience, Maplecroft compares the effects of Hurricane Sandy hitting America's east coast and Typhoon Bopha hitting the <span>Philippines</span>.</p>
<p>Despite Sandy's strength and size, only 110 people died because the U.S. has a well developed infrastructure and communications networks in addition to sophisticated response protocols.</p>
<p>Typhoon Bopha, on the other hand, <span>resulted in more than 1,000 deaths even though fewer people were exposed to the storm’s path.</span></p>
<p>Furthermore, the U.S. federal government was able to authorize $51 billion in disaster relief despite Congress being in a deficit showdown.</p>
<p>So even though 2012 was the least deadly year for <keyword id="139159" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="natural-disasters">natural disasters</keyword> in the last decade — less than 10,000 people died worldwide — the <span>analysis recommends that governments, communities, and businesses actively invest in</span><span> disaster risk reduction as </span><span>emerging markets become increasingly integral to the <keyword id="23764" type="COMPANY" weightage="60" keywordseo="global">global</keyword> economy.</span></p>
<p>“With the increasing global economic importance of these nations and their interconnectivity to global markets, a major event in one these financial centers increases the risk of economic contagion,” Helen Hodge, Head of Maps and Indices at Maplecroft, said in a statement. “In particular, a limited resilience capacity to ‘bounce-back’ from disasters will amplify this risk and prolong economic down-time.”</p>

Emerging Markets Could Be Devastated By A Literal Perfect Storm

<p><em></em></p><ul class="summary-list"><li>Solar maximum is a peak in the sun's activity that happens around the middle of each solar cycle.</li><li>The upcoming maximum may have a bigger impact on space weather and the power grid than the last one.</li></ul><p><em>This as-told-to essay is based on a conversation with </em><a href="http://www.met.reading.ac.uk/~vy902033" target="_blank" rel="noopener"><em>Mathew Owens</em></a><em>, a professor of space physics at the </em><a href="https://www.reading.ac.uk/" target="_blank" rel="noopener"><em>University of Reading</em></a><em> who researches space science and weather as it relates to solar activity and the solar maximum. It's been edited for length and clarity.</em></p><p>We're close to the next solar maximum, predicted to begin in <a href="https://www.nasa.gov/press-release/solar-cycle-25-is-here-nasa-noaa-scientists-explain-what-that-means" target="_blank" rel="noopener">2025</a>.</p><div type="image" title="Headshot of Mathew Owens." height="489" width="421" msid="99768381" hostid="261"></div>The <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/sun-more-active-solar-storms-auroras-power-outages-grounded-flights-2023-2">solar maximum</a> represents a peak in solar activity when the sun's <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/coronal-hole-on-sun-blasts-solar-wind-toward-earth-2023-3">magnetic field</a> reaches its strongest and most disordered and dynamic point.<p>This <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/nasa-video-solar-tornado-plasma-2023-3">increased solar activity</a> can cause extreme space weather events, including <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/x-class-solar-flare-blasts-earth-more-sun-activity-likely-2023-3">solar flares</a> and eruptions. It can also <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/solar-storms-flares-dangerous-effects-earth-sun">disrupt radio communications</a> and the power grid and have serious health consequences for astronauts.</p><p>The hazards are primarily to large-scale infrastructure. On an individual level, people on Earth are unlikely to directly see the effects of solar maximum.</p><h2>This solar maximum will likely be stronger than the last one</h2><div type="image" title="Solar coronal hole is shown on this gif of a rotating Earth." height="480" width="480" msid="99768382" hostid="261"></div><p>Solar cycles typically last <a href="https://oxfordre.com/physics/display/10.1093/acrefore/9780190871994.001.0001/acrefore-9780190871994-e-9" target="_blank" rel="noopener">11 years</a>, and the solar maximum happens roughly in the middle of each cycle.</p><p>The last solar maximum occurred between 2012-2014 and was particularly weak — one of the smallest in <a href="https://solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov/predict.shtml" target="_blank" rel="noopener">about 100 years</a>. Consequently, space weather was generally weaker than normal.</p><p>This upcoming solar maximum, however, seems like it may return to average values. That means we may see more of an impact on space weather and related potential consequences.</p><h2>What the solar maximum means for Earth</h2><div type="image" title="A rendering shows how magnetic lines on the sun can evolve over time. These are shown in yellow pink and blue." height="270" width="480" msid="99768383" hostid="261"></div><p>Solar activity happens in the first place due to the churning motions of <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/sun-plasma-waterfall-60000-mile-tall-hot-matter-solar-earth-2023-4">plasma inside the sun</a>, which creates and changes the sun's magnetic field.</p><p>The sun's <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/coronal-hole-on-sun-blasts-solar-wind-toward-earth-2023-3">magnetic field</a> reaches peak strength during solar maximum, generating an increase in events like solar flares and coronal mass ejections.</p><p>Solar flares consist of high-energy photons, like X-rays, that can increase the ionization in the Earth's upper atmosphere and <a href="https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/impacts/hf-radio-communications" target="_blank" rel="noopener">disrupt radio communications</a>.</p><div type="image" title="solar flare" height="490" width="918" msid="99768386" hostid="261"></div><p>CMEs, on the other hand, are eruptions of solar magnetic field and material that fuel <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/aurora-borealis-geomagnetic-storm-northern-lights-forecast-2021-9">geomagnetic storms</a>. These disturbances to the Earth's magnetic field can damage the power distribution grid.</p><p>During the solar maximum, we'll also see more bursts of very high-energy particles traveling toward Earth. These bursts are around four times as likely to occur during a solar maximum than a solar minimum.</p><p>And, since the particles in these bursts are <a href="https://www.acsh.org/news/2021/04/15/radiation-health-humans-space-15475" target="_blank" rel="noopener">radiation</a>, they pose a major health risk to astronauts and passengers and crew on high-latitude and high-altitude aircraft. They can also damage space hardware and lead to satellite loss.</p><h2>You probably won't notice most of these effects</h2><div type="image" title="Aurora borealis, aka the Northern lights, as seen over a lava landscape located in Reykjanes Peninsula, Iceland." height="1414" width="2121" msid="99768387" hostid="261"></div><p>Many effects of the solar maximum are ephemeral, which remains one of the biggest challenges in studying space weather.</p><p>For instance, it's often difficult to conclusively link a problem in the power grid to space weather — even if solar activity did cause that problem.</p><p>The one concrete effect we can confidently predict is that you'll likely see auroras, aka the <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/solar-storm-earth-northern-southern-lights-auroras-how-to-see-2023-4">Northern and Southern Lights</a>, more frequently at different latitudes.</p><p>During the solar maximum, the greater number of solar particles interacting with molecules in Earth's atmosphere causes <a href="https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/sunearth/spaceweather/index.html#q4" target="_blank" rel="noopener">brighter displays of the</a> auroras that can stretch farther north or south than usual.</p><div type="image" title="Solar Wind" height="360" width="640" msid="99768389" hostid="261"></div><p>Scientists have also found signals of the solar cycle — like <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S1364682601000840" target="_blank" rel="noopener">changes in temperature</a> and <a href="https://sunclimate.gsfc.nasa.gov/article/solar-influence-earth-system" target="_blank" rel="noopener">ozone levels</a> — in the Earth's stratosphere.</p><p>While scientists do include these changes from the sun when considering long-term climate variations, these effects on the climate <a href="https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/sunearth/solar-events-news/Does-the-Solar-Cycle-Affect-Earths-Climate.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">aren't as significant</a> or severe as factors like volcanoes, carbon dioxide emissions, and other human activity.</p><h2>Our reliance on tech raises the stakes</h2><div type="image" title="space satellite" height="1292" width="2000" msid="99768390" hostid="261"></div><p>Our collective reliance on technology and space increases each year, which makes space weather an ever-increasing risk.</p><p>The threat it poses to the power grid poses the biggest concern, not least due to the cascading hazards presented by losing power for an extended period.</p><div type="image" title="Layers of high tension electrical pylons and power lines against blue sky with clouds" height="5333" width="8000" msid="99768392" hostid="261"></div><p>It all comes down to probability, though. A stronger solar cycle just means a greater probability of extreme space weather events. It doesn't guarantee extreme space weather.</p><p>In fact, extreme space weather can occur even in small solar cycles. During the <a href="https://www.swsc-journal.org/articles/swsc/full_html/2020/01/swsc200057/swsc200057.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">small solar maximum of cycle 24</a>, a <a href="https://science.nasa.gov/science-news/science-at-nasa/2014/23jul_superstorm">spacecraft far from Earth encountered one of the most energetic CMEs</a> ever seen.</p><p>A CME of that scale directed at Earth could have caused serious disruptions to the power distribution grid or major damage to satellite hardware. </p>

I've studied the sun for 23 years. Here's what happened during the last solar maximum and what to expect from this one.

<p><div class="image-container display-table float_right"><div><div class="image"><p class="source">REUTERS/Stringer</p><p class="caption">A view of flooded streets after rainstorms triggered by Typhoon Haiyan hit Sanya, Hainan province November 11, 2013. Rainstorms from the typhoon hit the south China region on Sunday and Monday, killing at least four, with seven people still missing, according to Xinhua News Agency. Haiyan, one of the most powerful storms ever recorded, killed an estimated 10,000 people in central Philippines, according to officials. Picture taken November 11, 2013. </p></div></div></div>WARSAW (Reuters) - Global economic losses caused by extreme weather events have risen to nearly $200 billion a year over the last decade and look set to increase further as climate change worsens, a report by the World Bank showed on Monday.</p>
<p>A United Nations' panel of scientists has warned that floods, droughts and storms are likely to become more severe over the next century as greenhouse gas emissions warm the world's climate.</p>
<p>"Economic losses are rising - from $50 billion each year in the 1980s to just under $200 billion each year in the last decade and about three quarters of those losses are a result of extreme weather," said Rachel Kyte, World Bank Vice President for Sustainable Development.</p>
<p>"While you cannot connect any single weather event to climate change, scientists have warned that extreme weather events will increase in intensity if climate change is left unchecked."</p>
<p>Reinsurance company Munich Re has estimated total reported losses from disasters were $3.8 trillion from 1980 to 2012, attributing 74 percent of those to extreme weather.</p>
<p>More than 3,900 people have been killed in Typhoon Haiyan which hit the Philippines, one of the most powerful storms ever recorded.</p>
<p>The typhoon threw a spotlight on the impact of climate change and coincided with the start of November 11-22 talks in Warsaw, Poland, where governments are trying to draw up a plans to slow its effects.</p>
<h3>EMERGING ECONOMIES AT RISK</h3>
<p>Many nations have said the typhoon matched trends towards extreme weather and was an example to spur action in Warsaw, which is meant to lay down the outlines of a global deal in 2015 that will enter into force from 2020.</p>
<p>But the U.N. panel of climate scientists says it has only "low confidence" that human emissions have already contributed to the intensity of cyclones, which include typhoons and hurricanes, since 1950.</p>
<p>As part of the talks, governments are discussing a mechanism to help poorer countries cope with losses and damage from climate change.</p>
<p>Although weather-related disasters can affect all countries, the most severe economic and human losses are expected in rapidly growing countries, such as those in Asia, which are building their economies in areas vulnerable to floods, droughts and extreme temperatures, the World Bank said.</p>
<p>The average impact of disasters on such countries equaled 1 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) from 2001 to 2006 - ten times higher than the average for high-income countries, the World Bank said.</p>
<p>But climate impacts will especially cripple poorer countries. Hurricane Tomas in 2010, for example, devastated St Lucia and caused losses of 43 percent of GDP.</p>
<p>To help avoid unmanageable future costs, governments should focus on making their countries more resilient to disasters, even though that might require up-front investment, it added.</p>
<p>(Editing by Louise Heavens)</p>

World Bank: Losses From Extreme Weather Now At $200 Billion Per Year

<p><span><span><div class="KonaFilter image-container float_right"><div class="image on-image"><p class="source"><span><a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/video/rosenberg-manley-on-u-s-economy-earnings-VGYvxb3hRiSDdEaRAS_qTA.html">Screenshot via Bloomberg TV</a></span></p></div><p></p></div>Business Insider is offering a </span><a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/5-questions-for-jim-osullivan-2014-3">new feature</a><span> in our "</span><a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/opening-bell-march-4-2014-3">10 Things You Need To Know Before The Opening Bell</a><span>" email newsletter where we interview top strategists, economists, and traders to get their thoughts on key market questions.</span></span></p>
<p>Wednesday's interview was with David Rosenberg, chief economist and strategist at Gluskin Sheff.</p>
<p>Sign up for our newsletter at the bottom to receive Q&amp;As and more in your inbox every weekday morning.</p>
<p><em><strong>BUSINESS INSIDER: <span>To what extent do you think poor weather has impacted this winter's economic data?</span></strong></em></p>
<p>DAVID ROSENBERG: I would say that the slowing is 50% weather and 50% fundamental with respect to inventory adjustment/savings rate and housing (tight mortgage lending).</p>
<p><em><strong>BI: What's the big story that nobody is talking about right now?</strong></em></p>
<p>DR: That energy prices are on a discernible upward path.</p>
<p><em><strong>BI: Are you optimistic about Janet Yellen as Fed chair?</strong></em></p>
<p>DR: I'm optimistic that her policies will in the end generate far more inflation than is generally acknowledged.</p>
<p><em><strong>BI: The stock market is roaring back to all time highs. Do issues in EM not have as big an impact on U.S. markets as people argued a few weeks ago?</strong></em></p>
<p>DR: EM has a marginal impact at best… look at the 1997-98 Asian crisis: GDP growth averaged 4%, the unemployment rate went from 5% to 4.5% and the S&amp;P 500 ran up 20%… only became an issue towards the end of the crisis when it became a domestic financial event with the turmoil surrounding LTCM.</p>
<p><em><strong>BI: What's something you'll be watching this week and next?</strong></em></p>
<p>DR: The February employment report. Whether the S&amp;P 500 can break back above the mid-January highs on a closing basis. Beyond that, the March-April data will tell the tale as to just how much the latest poor data flow was a weather report.</p>

5 Questions For David Rosenberg

<p><div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table"><div><div class="image"></div></div></div></p><ul class="summary-list"><li><strong>Steffen Olsen, a researcher at the Danish Meteorological Institute, posted two alarming photos of sled-dogs trekking ankle-deep across melted sea ice in northwestern Greenland this month.</strong></li><li><strong>The area experienced unseasonably warm conditions last week due to warmer air coming from southern regions, the institute told Business Insider in a statement.</strong></li><li><strong>Temperatures in northwestern Greenland last week were almost 10 degrees Celsius (50 degrees Fahrenheit) warmer than those the year before.</strong></li><li><strong>Researchers warned that the melt is not directly attributable to climate change. But rising global temperatures may make such scenes more frequent.</strong></li><li><strong><strong><a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/?hprecirc-bullet">Visit Business Insider's homepage for more stories</a>.</strong></strong></li></ul><p>Two newly-released photos of sled-dogs trekking across melted sea ice show the impact of weirdly warm weather in Greeland this summer.</p><p>The photos, taken around mid-afternoon last Thursday by Steffen Olsen, show the dogs hauling a sled, ankle-deep in water, in Inglefield Bredning, northwestern Greenland.</p><p>They were been helping Olsen, a climate researcher at the Danish Meteorological Institute (DMI), and local hunters from Qaanaaq village retrieve measuring instruments they placed in the sea ice last winter.</p><p><div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table"><div><div class="image"></div></div></div></p><p>This is an annual exercise, and sled-dogs typically trek on ice to retrieve the instruments. But this year's conditions were unseasonably warm, resulting in the dogs walking through meltwater on top of a thick ice sheet.</p><p>While the image is stark, experts said it is more due to a freak short-term weather pattern than long-term climate change. However, global rising temperatures are forecast to diminish Greenland's ice, and may make such events more frequent.</p><p>Because the ice sheet is thick, with few cracks, the meltwater is stuck on top and cannot be drained away, DMI climate researcher Ruth Mottram said in a statement sent to Business Insider.</p><p><em><strong>Read more:</strong> <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/greenland-approaching-threshold-of-irreversible-melting-2019-1">Greenland is approaching the threshold of an irreversible melt, and the consequences for coastal cities could be dire</a></em></p><p><div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table"><div><div class="image"></div></div></div></p><p>The onslaught of melted sea ice can be attributed to unseasonably warm conditions in Greenland, which was caused by "warmer air moving up from the south," Mottram said.</p><p>A DMI weather station at the nearby Qaanaaq airport <a href="https://www.dmi.dk/vejrarkiv/">registered</a> a high of 17.3 degrees Celsius (63 degrees Fahrenheit) on Wednesday and a high of 15 degrees Celsius (59 degrees Fahrenheit) on Thursday.</p><p>Those temperatures were "pretty warm for Northern Greenland, even in Summer," Mottram said. She is investigating whether these are record highs for this weather station in June.</p><p>The same weather station recorded a high of 5.9 degrees Celsius (42.6 degrees Fahrenheit) and 9.8 degrees (49.6 degrees Fahrenheit) Celsius on the same days in 2018.</p><p><div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table"><div><div class="image"></div></div></div></p><p>Mottram noted that while this year's melt was "pretty unusual" - because such events typically take place in late June or July, rather than mid June - it is "not unprecedented."</p><p>She also attributed the melt to an extreme weather event, rather than climate change alone.</p><p>Mottram said: "With regard to what it means in future, our climate model simulations expect there to be a general decline in the length of the sea ice season around Greenland. But how fast and how much is very much dependent on how much global temperature rises.</p><p>"This week's warming is still a weather driven extreme event so it's hard to pin it down to climate change alone."</p><p><a href="https://www.pnas.org/content/early/2019/04/16/1904242116">A study</a>, published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences journal in April, noted that Greenland's ice is melting six times faster now than it was 40 years ago.</p><p>That melted ice has has contributed to the more than 0.5 inches of global sea-level rise since 1972, half of which came about in the last eight years alone, the researchers noted, <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/greenland-approaching-threshold-of-irreversible-melting-2019-1">as reported by Business Insider's Aylin Woodward</a>.</p>

These photos of sled-dogs trekking through meltwater in Greenland are a stark reminder of vanishing Arctic sea ice

<ul class="summary-list"><li>The Seine River is too polluted for swimming events at the Paris Olympics, city officials said.</li><li>Paris invested $1.5 billion to clean the Seine, but heavy rainfall increased pollution levels.</li></ul><p>Despite a massive cleanup effort, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/see-paris-underwater-as-the-seine-floods-the-streets-hundred-year-flood-2018-1">Paris' Seine River</a> remains too polluted to host swimming events for the <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/category/olympics">upcoming Olympic Games</a>, city officials have said.</p><p>Samples taken from the river showed that E. Coli levels were above the recommended limit at four different sites for nearly the entire week of June 10 to June 16, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.lemonde.fr/en/france/article/2024/06/21/paris-seine-river-water-too-dirty-to-allow-olympic-swimming-events_6675386_7.html">per Le Monde with AFP</a>.</p><p>"Samples from the Seine do not meet the standards we will have this summer," Paris region official Marc Guillaume added on Friday.</p><p>The Seine was poised to be a centerpiece of the Paris Olympics, featuring prominently in both the opening ceremony and various swimming events.</p><p>The city of Paris invested $1.5 billion in cleaning the river ahead of the games, with regular testing of bacterial levels to ensure athletes' safety.</p><p>But officials say heavy rainfall has scuppered those plans thus far, leading to high rates of two kinds of fecal bacteria, including E. Coli — which is "the species of coliform bacteria that is the best indicator of fecal pollution," according to the <a target="_blank" href="https://www.health.ny.gov/environmental/water/drinking/coliform_bacteria.htm">New York State Department of Health</a>.</p><p>"Water quality remains degraded due to... rain, high flow, little sunshine (and) temperatures below seasonal norms," a weekly report published by the Paris region and mayor's office said, per Le Monde with AFP.</p><p>Paris' 19th-century sewage system can be overwhelmed by bad weather, leading to <a target="_blank" href="https://www3.epa.gov/npdes/pubs/nps_urban-facts_final.pdf">urban runoff</a>, which carries pollutants to streams and rivers.</p><p>The Seine has been off-limits for swimming since 1923 due to high pollution levels.</p><p>Last year, triathletes took part in a test event in the Seine, with some airing concerns about their safety.</p><p>Norwegian Olympic gold medallist Kristian Blummenfelt said: "I always dive with open mouth. It's not going to be funny if I wake up tomorrow morning with ... whatever," <a target="_blank" href="https://www.espn.co.uk/olympics/story/_/id/38201983/paris-triathlon-test-previous-water-quality-issues">per ESPN</a>.</p><p>A number of other test events in the river have been canceled due to pollution levels and bad weather.</p><p>Nevertheless, Guillaume said he was "confident" that swimming events would go ahead as planned.</p><p>"At one point or another, the weather will change, it's going to stop raining and we're going to have sunshine ... It is in summer conditions that we must be able to examine swimmability," he said, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.axios.com/2024/06/21/seine-polluted-paris-olympics">Axios</a> reported.</p><p>The 2024 Olympic Games is set to kick off on July 26.</p><p>The overall economic impact of the Olympic Games on the Paris region could range from 6.7 billion euros to 11.1 billion euros, or around $7.1 billion to $11.8 billion, <a target="_blank" href="https://cdes.fr/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/2024.04_Paris-2024_Economic-impact-study_final.pdf">according to a study published by Center for Law and Economics of Sport</a>.</p><p>Business Insider contacted the Olympic Games Paris 2024 for comment.</p>

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