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<ul><li>The number of infections in some of the big cities are already past their peak and are likely to trend down hereon. </li><li>The latest Sero survey from two of the most affected cities in the country — <keyword id="6358070" type="LOCATION" weightage="20" keywordseo="mumbai">Mumbai</keyword> and Delhi — have sparked the hope for <keyword id="2147226" type="PERSON" weightage="20" keywordseo="herd-immunity">herd immunity</keyword> against COVID-19. </li><li><keyword id="12864" type="LOCATION" weightage="20" keywordseo="Chennai">Chennai</keyword>, which recently emerged as the worst-affected city in Tamil Nadu, is likely to witness its peak soon.</li></ul>India's COVID-19 tally stands went from 1.4 million to 1.5 million in 2 days with a total of 34,193 deaths. At the same time the recoveries are just a little short of the million mark, according to <keyword id="3717035" type="COMPANY" weightage="20" keywordseo="the-union-health-ministry">the Union Health Ministry</keyword> data. However, there is a silver lining. As per the latest data by <a href="https://www.timesnownews.com/times-facts">India Outbreak Report</a>, the number of infections in Mumbai, Delhi, Ahmedabad and Thane are already past their peak and are likely to trend down hereon. These are the dates in which other cities and states are likely to see the maximum number of daily infections, after which the daily increase will start waning. <div type="image" title="Peak-Pandemic (1)" msid="77242567" hostid="261"></div> The latest sero survey from two of the most affected cities in the country — Mumbai and Delhi — have sparked the hope for <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/science/health/news/slums-in-mumbai-are-showing-signs-of-herd-immunity-but-it-is-too-soon-to-conclude/articleshow/77238721.cms">herd immunity</a> against COVID-19. However, experts warn that it may be too soon to say that a big chunk of the population has developed antibodies against the novel <keyword id="1754604" type="PERSON" weightage="20" keywordseo="coronavirus">coronavirus</keyword>. Even those who may have, may see the resistance depleting after some time. The fall in active cases and fresh infections should not be a cue for being less careful. The count may fall but it will not disappear in a hurry. Masks, gloves, social distancing and other protective measures should continue to avoid contraction. SEE ALSO: <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/stock-market/news/mahindra-and-mahindra-finance-managing-director-gets-candid-about-the-rights-issue/articleshow/77212386.cms">EXCLUSIVE: M&amp;M Financial Managing Director gets candid about the rights issue, the bleak prospects for this year and why there should be no more loan moratorium</a> <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/stock-market/news/india-stock-brokers-hit-by-sebi-direct-market-access/articleshow/77198064.cms">India's broking industry just got the shock of its life – SEBI may soon allow investors to trade directly on the exchange</a> <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/business/startups/news/these-10-indian-colleges-have-produced-indias-most-funded-startup-owners/slidelist/77140792.cms">These 10 Indian colleges have produced India’s most funded startup owners</a>

These are the projected dates for peak COVID-19 infections in Mumbai, Delhi, Chennai, Ahmedabad, Bhopal, Jaipur

Mumbai, Buoyed by the encouraging results of the first Serological Surveillance for SARS-CoV2 Infection, the BrihanMumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC) will conduct another similar survey from August 10, a top official said here on Thursday. BMC Additional Municipal Commissioner Suresh Kakani said that after the results of the first survey in early-July, which tentatively pointed to '<keyword id="2147226" type="PERSON" weightage="20" keywordseo="herd-immunity">herd immunity</keyword>', another survey will be carried out in the same BMC wards to further confirm this outcome. "It will be conducted in the regions of Matunga, Sion, <keyword id="157686" type="LOCATION" weightage="20" keywordseo="Wadala">Wadala</keyword> (F/North), Chembur, Tilak Nagar (M/West) and Dahisar, Mandapeshwar (R/North), with a similar sample size but with different people from slums and housing complexes," Kakani told IANS. The outcome of the second survey -- likely to be available by early-September -- would enable the health authorities to state with confidence the developing or prevalence of 'herd immunity' in those regions, and chart out a Covid-19 combat strategy for other parts of Mumbai, he added. The country's biggest cross-sectional antibodies survey, it was conducted by the BMC along with NITI Aayog and TISS for 12-14 days in the first half of July, covering 6,936 people which threw up unanticipated results. Among other things, it pointed at women and slumdwellers leading the march towards a 'herd immunity' against Covid-19 in Mumbai - the country's worst-hit city. The survey showed that 57 per cent of those tested in the slums were exposed to and developed antibodies against the SARS-CoV-2 Virus, compared to merely 16 per cent in housing complexes. For the slums, the figures thrown up were 59.30 per cent women (out of 2,297 tested) and 53.20 per cent men (out of 1,937 tested), who had developed antibodies against Covid. In the housing complexes, 16.80 per cent of the women tested and 14.90 per cent of the men tested had developed the antibodies. The BMC interprets this high exposure in slums to shared common facilities like toilets, water-taps, high population density and lack of physical distancing compared to the residents in housing complexes. With the results suggesting more asymptomatic infections, this higher exposure in slums points to an extremely low death-rate in Mumbai - "as low as 0.05 to 0.10 per cent" - instead of the existing 5.5 per cent. The official explained that the presence of antibodies indicated that the person had been infected, battled it away and in the process developed a certain level of resistance to the virus. Accordingly, more people with antibodies in a community is considered a positive sign as the virus had limited scope to spread, implying success of measures like wearing masks, physical distancing, etc, in these areas. Simultaneously, even the presence of antibodies among fewer persons in the housing complexes is considered encouraging as it indicates lesser number of infectees, due to better hygiene, more physical distancing and other interventions by the BMC, the official added. "These results will be valuable to learn more about 'herd immunity'. Although it is still unclear at what level of prevalence does herd immunity kicks in, findings indicate that, at least in slums, this could be attained sooner than later, if the immunity exists and persists in a significant proportion of the population," the BMC informed. The Anti-SARS-CoV2-IgG antibodies were detected using Chemiluminescence assay (CLIA) by Abbott group, in what is billed as the largest such cross-sectional survey in India. It was carried out in collaboration with Kasturba Molecular Diagnostic Laboratory, Translational Health Science and Technology Institute, ATE Chandra Foundation and IDFC Institute. The development comes a fortnight after <keyword id="2555741" type="COMPANY" weightage="20" keywordseo="The-World-Health-Organisation">the World Health Organisation</keyword> (WHO) on July 11 acknowledged the success of Maharashtra government in combating the Covid-19 outbreak in Dharavi, the largest slum in Asia. (Quaid Najmi can be contacted at: q.najmi@ians.in) --IANS qn/in

Mumbai sero surveillance round 2 to begin from August 10

<ul><li>Urban cities in the country including Mumbai, Delhi and Ahmedabad are showing a dip in the number of infections and cases. </li><li><keyword id="48434" type="COMPANY" weightage="20" keywordseo="BMC">BMC</keyword> Sero survey indicates that 57% from slums in three wards in Mumbai have developed antibodies </li><li>Experts now believe that some parts of the country, especially the slums of India’s financial capital have developed Herd Immunity. </li><li>Herd Immunity occurs when a large number of people become immune to a contagious disease after being infected to it. </li><li>Business Insider India spoke to experts to understand the road ahead from here. </li></ul>Herd immunity occurs when a large number of people become immune to a contagious disease after being infected to it. The latest sets of data from the two of India’s biggest metro cities, New Delhi and Mumbai, has sparked the hope for herd immunity against COVID-19 but experts warn it may be too soon to rejoice. More than half of the population residing in slums in three different regions in Mumbai contracted coronavirus and developed its anti-bodies, according to a sero-surveillance study conducted by the city’s civic body, Tata Institute of Fundamental Research (TIFRE) and NITI Aayog (India’s premier think tank). <div type="image" title="Mumbai Sero Survey" msid="77238688" hostid="261"></div> Mumbai, where 800,000 people live in slums, has reported over 110,000 infections and 6,000 fatalities till June 29. The sero-surveillance started on June 3 and 6,936 samples out of an estimated 8,870 were collected from slum and non-slum population of three civic wards - R-North, M-West and F-North - in the first half of July. The case for possible herd immunity <div type="image" title="Dharavi2" msid="77238788" hostid="261" caption="&amp;lt;p&amp;gt;Tempreature check up at Dharavi&amp;lt;/p&amp;gt;"></div> “Although it is still unclear what level of prevalence leads to herd immunity, findings indicate at least in slums this could be attained sooner or later if the immunity exists and persists in a significant proportion of the population." the BMC statement read. “If someone is exposed and they develop antibodies, we can detect those antibodies and it gives us a relatively decent indicator that they were exposed. The interesting thing about the study is it was only looking for asymptomatic individuals. Symptomatic people are going to the system, they are getting treated, managed etc. Asymptomatic is something none of us could understand,” Dr. Marcus Ranney, General Manager (India) Thrive Global explained. This comes a week after a Delhi government survey stated that 30% of the people living in the national capital had anti-bodies of COVID-19. However, the jury is still out on whether herd immunity can stave off COVID-19 infections in the future. Here’s why herd immunity can’t be taken for granted <div type="image" title="Dharavi" msid="77238726" hostid="261" caption="&amp;lt;p&amp;gt;A child walks holding his grandfather&amp;#39;s walking stick at Dharavi&amp;lt;/p&amp;gt;"></div> “We have to be very careful with the concept of allowing people to get infected with this virus to develop natural (herd) immunity. This approach does not seem to work (in this case). This is a very contagious infection, and it is clear that the virus can be devastating to those over the age of 60 or with underlying medical conditions,” said Issac Bogoch from the University of Toronto, Canada <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/science/health/news/herd-immunity-doesnt-seem-to-work-for-covid-19-need-to-be-careful/articleshow/77218380.cms">said in an interview with IANS</a>. The other downside of living in the hope of herd immunity is that it could put a lot of vulnerable people at risk. “Asymptomatic carry the same viral load as a symptomatic patient and they are not protected. An asymptomatic carrier is as lethal and as vulnerable as symptomatic. One asymptomatic can spread it to 217 people if the person is in a closed/family range, ” Prof. Dr. Sanjeev Bagai, the chairperson of Nephron Clinics, told Business Insider India Many of these people who get the virus passed on to them could be older people and those with co-morbidities like diabetes, Hepatitis and heart diseases to name a few. India has been the third-worst affected country and has reported 1.5 million cases. And even if a person does develop antibodies to fight COVID-19, they may not stay in the body forever. Research studies across the world have shown that the immunity drops 8 weeks or so after contracting COVID-19, according to Bagai. Even Ranney, who hopes that there will be herd immunity someday, warns against lowering the guard too soon. “We do not know the period of time this immunity lasts. We could see a repeated infection in the same individual (recovered patients). A King’s College study in London was suggestive that the immunity drops quite significantly,” <a href="https://twitter.com/BiIndia/status/1288331087832182786">Dr. Ranney </a>said. SEE ALSO: <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/stock-market/news/mahindra-and-mahindra-finance-managing-director-gets-candid-about-the-rights-issue/articleshow/77212386.cms">EXCLUSIVE: M&amp;M Financial Managing Director gets candid about the rights issue, the bleak prospects for this year and why there should be no more loan moratorium</a> <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/stock-market/news/india-stock-brokers-hit-by-sebi-direct-market-access/articleshow/77198064.cms">India's broking industry just got the shock of its life – SEBI may soon allow investors to trade directly on the exchanges</a> <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/business/startups/news/these-10-indian-colleges-have-produced-indias-most-funded-startup-owners/slidelist/77140792.cms">These 10 Indian colleges have produced India’s most funded startup owners</a>

The slums in India's financial capital are showing signs of herd immunity but it is too soon to conclude

<ul><li>Mumbai and neighbouring areas received intense spells of rain since Tuesday night, leaving many parts of the metropolis in <keyword id="7033112" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="20" keywordseo="Waist-Deep">waist deep</keyword> water and disrupting rail and road traffic. </li><li>Wadettiwar said in a statement that heavy rains caused flood-like situation in many places, adding that Disaster Management department is keeping a close watch on the situation. </li></ul> Five teams of the National Disaster Response Force (<keyword id="58585" type="ORGANIZATION" weightage="20" keywordseo="NDRF">NDRF</keyword>) are on standby in view of heavy rains that have lashed Mumbai, <keyword id="37647" type="LOCATION" weightage="20" keywordseo="Thane">Thane</keyword> and <keyword id="261585" type="LOCATION" weightage="20" keywordseo="Palghar">Palghar</keyword> districts and caused water-logging in many areas, <keyword id="9986841" type="COMPANY" weightage="20" keywordseo="maharashtra-relief">Maharashtra Relief</keyword> and Rehabilitation Minister Vijay Wadettiwar said on Wednesday. Mumbai and neighbouring areas received intense spells of rain since Tuesday night, leaving many parts of the metropolis in waist deep water and disrupting rail and road traffic. Wadettiwar said in a statement that heavy rains caused flood-like situation in many places, adding that Disaster Management department is keeping a close watch on the situation. He appealed to people to stay indoors in view of flooding in many areas in Mumbai and other places. "Since last night, Mumbai, Thane and Palghar districts have been witnessing very heavy rains, due to which there is flood-like situation in many places. Five teams of NDRF are on stand by to assist local administration," the minister said. Mumbai received one of the highest showers in the last 24 hours of this monsoon season and more rainfall is likely in the city and suburbs on Wednesday, as per India Meteorology Department (IMD). SEE ALSO: <a target="_blank" class="c-link c-message_attachment__title_link" href="https://www.businessinsider.in/india/news/saudi-arabia-suspends-travel-to-and-from-india-as-the-coronavirus-case-mount/articleshow/78273892.cms">Saudi Arabia suspends travel to and from India as the coronavirus case mount</a> <a target="_blank" class="c-link c-message_attachment__title_link" href="https://www.businessinsider.in/india/news/covid-19-herd-immunity-may-be-an-impractical-strategy/articleshow/78273649.cms">COVID-19 herd immunity may be an impractical strategy</a>

Mumbai Rains: Five NDRF teams on standby as heavy rains lash Mumbai, Thane and Palghar, says Maha minister

<ul><li>Maharashtra crossed four lakh-mark in the number of coronavirus cases, yesterday (July 29). </li><li>Malls and market complexes without theatres, food courts and restaurants will be operational between 9 am and 7 pm from August 5. </li><li>Although the central government has allowed gymnasiums and yoga institutes to open from August 5, the Maharashtra government continues to prohibit opening of indoor gyms and yoga institutes in the state. </li><li>Here’s a complete list of what’s allowed and what’s not. </li></ul>Although the centre has been unlocking the country under various phases, the Maharashtra government extended lockdown till August 31 in the wake of rising coronavirus cases. The state crossed the four lakh-mark in coronavirus cases on Wednesday (July 29). Maharashtra accounts for 25% of the total cases of the country. The notification issued by Chief Secretary Sanjay Kumar said that the decision has been taken as an “emergency step to prevent and contain” the spread of COVID-19. Here’s what’s allowed in Maharashtra till August 31 <ul><li>Malls and market complexes without theatres, food courts and restaurants will be operational between 9 am and 7 pm from August 5. </li><li>Unrestricted movement will be allowed only for attending places of work which are open and for medical reasons.</li><li>All industrial units and construction sites will continue to operate. </li><li>All government offices except those serving as emergency service providers will operate with 15% strength or 15 persons whichever is higher. And, all private offices will operate with 10% strength or 10 persons whichever is higher.</li><li>Online learning activities will continue as per the government instructions. </li><li>Kitchens of food courts and restaurants will be allowed to operate in the malls where only home delivery will be permitted</li><li>Outdoor non-team sports like golf courses, outdoor firing range, outdoor gymnastics, tennis, outdoor badminton and malkhamb will be allowed with physical distancing and sanitation measures from August 5.</li><li>Wearing masks will be compulsory in (public) transport systems.</li><li>Barbershops, spa, salons, and beauty parlors have been allowed to operate with certain stipulations since June 25.</li></ul>Here’s what’s not allowed in Maharashtra till August 31 <ul><li>Although the central government has allowed gymnasiums and yoga institutes to open from August 5 as per its recent guidelines, the Maharashtra government continues to prohibit opening of indoor gyms and yoga institutes. </li><li>Movement of persons for the purpose of non-essential activities like shopping and outdoor exercises shall be restricted within neighbourhood area limits with mandatory precautions of wearing masks, social distancing and personal hygiene. </li><li>Large public gatherings and congregations will continue to remain prohibited, and marriage-related gatherings will have only up to 50 guests.</li><li>The maximum number of persons allowed at funerals will be 20, it added. </li><li>Swimming pools will not be allowed to operate. </li></ul>SEE ALSO: <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/science/health/news/slums-in-mumbai-are-showing-signs-of-herd-immunity-but-it-is-too-soon-to-conclude/articleshow/77238721.cms">The slums in India's financial capital are showing signs of herd immunity but it is too soon to conclude</a> <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/education/news/india-revamps-its-education-policy-after-34-years-scraps-mphil-proposes-vocational-courses-from-class-6-ug-colleges-to-become-autonomous/articleshow/77241851.cms">India revamps its education policy after 34 years — scraps MPhil, proposes vocational courses from class 6, UG colleges to become autonomous</a> <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/education/news/india-revamps-its-education-policy-after-34-years-scraps-mphil-proposes-vocational-courses-from-class-6-ug-colleges-to-become-autonomous/articleshow/77241851.cms" data-type="tilCustomLink"></a><a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/education/news/india-revamps-its-education-policy-after-34-years-scraps-mphil-proposes-vocational-courses-from-class-6-ug-colleges-to-become-autonomous/articleshow/77241851.cms" data-type="tilCustomLink"></a><a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/education/news/india-revamps-its-education-policy-after-34-years-scraps-mphil-proposes-vocational-courses-from-class-6-ug-colleges-to-become-autonomous/articleshow/77241851.cms" data-type="tilCustomLink"></a><a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/education/news/india-revamps-its-education-policy-after-34-years-scraps-mphil-proposes-vocational-courses-from-class-6-ug-colleges-to-become-autonomous/articleshow/77241851.cms" data-type="tilCustomLink"></a><a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/education/news/india-revamps-its-education-policy-after-34-years-scraps-mphil-proposes-vocational-courses-from-class-6-ug-colleges-to-become-autonomous/articleshow/77241851.cms" data-type="tilCustomLink"></a>

Maharashtra extends lockdown till August 31 — Here’s what’s allowed and what’s prohibited

Mumbai, Apr Economists at SBI on Wednesday said a bulk of the Rs 1.75 lakh crore coronavirus aid package announced by the Cecludes budgeted elements and pitched for a Rs 3 lakh crore top-up to help the economy tide over the COVID-19-related challenges.Only Rs 73,000 crore of the Rs 1.75 lakh crore package announced by Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman last month is fresh money as the rest was already budgeted for, the economists said, adding a "large fiscal package" for affected industries" is necessary at this point.The already sagging economic growth is expected to go down further due to the COVID-19 pandemic, which has led to a three-week lockdown across the country starting March 25. Some analysts believe GDP growth will come at 2 per cent for FY21."... given labour and capital income loss of around Rs 3.60 lakh crore, the minimum subsistence fiscal package must be scaled up by Rs 3 lakh crore, over and above the incremental Rs 73,000 crore that was unleashed in the first phase," an SBI economist said in a note.The note said 98 per cent of the banking system's outstanding credit is in the 284 districts of the country affected by the COVID-19 and asked for needful attention to be given to the banking system.Joining other watchers, the economists at the country's largest lender also called for some relief to the troubled NBFCs sector, which has been excluded from the three-month moratorium on loan repayments to financial institutions, and warned that if things deteriorate there will be an erosion of capital for such entities.Similarly, from a labour perspective, the dent is maximum in the hotels, trade, education, petroleum and agriculture sectors, while self-employment accounts for 30 per cent of the GDP, it said."A fiscal package is imperative now," it reminded the policymakers. In what can be said as a brighter side, the economists estimated credit offtake has increased in the final fortnight of March across various verticals, despite the COVID-19 scares, which illustrates confidence within businesses of a surge in demand post-lockdown.They estimated the incremental credit offtake at Rs 2.10 lakh crore in March, of which agriculture will be Rs 10,000 crore, industry Rs 1.20 lakh crore, services Rs 60,000 crore and personal loans Rs 20,000 crore.The note welcomed talk of a staggered pullout from the lockdown and pitched for top preference to be given to agriculture and procurement, followed by inland transport (both roads and railways), a trading activity that supports over 25 crore households, hotel services and limited construction activity to be allowed in the unaffected areas.From a demographic perspective, they said the population should be divided into the hospitalised, immunity compromised, and healthy individuals and we should have a well-defined strategy for each group as there is no herd immunity in the population for COVID-19. AA MR

Economists pitch for Rs 3 lakh cr additional package to tide over COVID crisis

<ul class="summary-list"><li>A second <keyword id="8763838" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="covid-19">COVID-19</keyword> wave is devastating <keyword id="3658" type="COUNTRY" weightage="60" keywordseo="India">India</keyword>, where a new "double mutant" virus variant emerged.</li><li>Insider spoke with people on the ground and experts about the threat and ways to address it.</li><li>Politicians so far have largely been unwilling or unable to apply strict restrictions.</li></ul>Hospitals in India are overwhelmed as the country grapples with a second wave of COVID-19.There is a severe shortage of beds, the drug remdesivir, and medical oxygen. Desperate patients have been traveling hundreds of miles, searching helplines and social media, to find hospitals with enough capacity. The worsening situation forced British Prime Minister Boris Johnson this week to cancel a visit to the country. The UK and the US have also issued strong travel advisories for India.On Saturday, when 261,394 new cases were reported in the country, Prime Minister Narendra Modi <a href="https://twitter.com/ndtv/status/1383419909128933377?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1383419909128933377%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_c10&amp;ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.bloombergquint.com%2Fcoronavirus-outbreak%2Fhope-and-heartbreak-on-indian-covid-twittertter">boasted</a> about the size of his election rally in West Bengal, where a huge crowd was crammed together.Rallies have taken place in West Bengal and three other states, with thousands attending, without much adherence to COVID-19 precautions.This reflects how dramatic India's turnaround has been with the coronavirus. Early this year, experts hypothesized that this country of 1.3 billion people had reached herd immunity as cases steadily fell. The government's own modeling study suggested the country's outbreak would be over by February. In January, a health minister <a href="https://www.livemint.com/news/india/india-has-flattened-covid-19-curve-no-new-cases-in-one-fifth-of-country-govt-11611824857809.html">said</a> India had "successfully contained" COVID-19.Weddings, functions, and political rallies resumed as politicians encouraged a return to normal.Now, India has more than 2 million known active cases, compared with 200,000 in January. Daily reported cases are three times as high as the peak of the first wave in September, with 314,835 announced on Thursday.<div type="image" title="COVID Daily cases India graph" height="2400" width="3400" msid="82202329" hostid="261"></div>A "double mutant" variant - which contains notable mutations that had been separately identified in two previous variants of the original virus - has taken hold.Insider spoke with people on the ground about the extent of devastation this wave has caused as well as the constant challenge of enforcing restrictions at mass gatherings."Things have worsened this time around," said Dr. Sonali Vaid, who previously worked for the World Health Organization and is now helping patients find beds in New Delhi."Many patients with severely low oxygen-saturation levels have had to manage at home, some with dire consequences, due to lack of beds," Vaid added. "Things weren't as bad last year."Despite this, the country's largest religious gathering went ahead. The centuries-old Kumbh Mela sees tens of millions of Hindu pilgrims travel to bathe en masse in rivers in a ritual meant to cleanse them of their sins. It has brought millions this month to Haridwar, north of Delhi."The flow and blessings of Ma Ganga" - Mother River Ganges - "will ensure that coronavirus does not spread," said the chief minister of Uttarakhand, the northern state where the event is taking place for all of April.The <a href="https://scroll.in/latest/992233/kumbh-mela-cant-be-compared-to-nizamuddin-markaz-claims-uttarakhand-cm">government</a> shortened the event from four months to one and insisted it was following Health Ministry guidelines on containing the coronavirus - such as mandatory negative test results and discouraging older, more vulnerable people from taking part.But Deepak Rawat, a government official who runs the event on behalf of the state government, said these were impossible to enforce during the days of Shahi Snan, or royal bath, when devotees bathe in the Ganges.<div type="image" title="Shahi Snan April 12 2021 water bathing" height="2595" width="3900" msid="82202332" hostid="261"></div>On a single day, an estimated 2.1 million pilgrims were taking part, most of them neither wearing masks nor socially distancing."Enforcing COVID-19-appropriate behavior during these processions would be a folly, and we would be risking a stampede," Rawat told Insider.A senior official at the festival <a href="https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20210416-top-seer-at-india-religious-mega-festival-dies-from-covid-19">told AFP</a> on Friday that they had "around 2,000 positive cases" in the previous four days. That week a senior priest was taken to a hospital from the site and died after a positive test.Facing a backlash, Modi later tweeted appealing for the Kumbh Mela to be scaled back.Dr. T. Sundararaman, the global coordinator for the health-activism network People's Health Movement, said the Kumbh Mela should have been restricted in line with religious ceremonies elsewhere like the annual Islamic pilgrimage to Mecca."What you now have is a runaway celebration with a great potential to act as a superspreader event," he added.In Lucknow, the capital of Uttar Pradesh, which neighbors Uttarakhand to the south, <a href="https://www.indiatoday.in/coronavirus-outbreak/video/rows-of-burning-pyres-in-lucknow-authorities-place-barricades-around-crematoriums-1791333-2021-04-15">videos</a> emerged of crematoriums full of rows of burning pyres, raising fears official figures were missing many who were dying without having been tested.The double-mutant variant of the virus that emerged in the country, B.1.617, may be behind the surge in cases.Authorities don't yet have the data to prove this, though the variant has mutations that were found in others to make them more transmissible and less likely to confer immunity on people who recover, said Gautam Menon, a physics and biology professor at Ashoka University."This wave is far more transmissible than the first one," said Dr. Lancelot Pinto, a consultant in respiratory medicine at P. D. Hinduja Hospital in Mumbai, which was badly hit during both waves.During the first wave, it was common for only one or two members in a family to be infected, but Pinto said he was seeing entire families testing positive now."We are getting many younger patients - those in their 30s and 40s - with moderate to severe disease," he said, adding: "This could be because of the new strain or just because of the sheer numbers of infection this time."<div type="image" title="Public meeting" height="2656" width="3992" msid="82202334" hostid="261"></div>Vaccination has offered other countries a glimmer of hope, but while India has been able to vaccinate millions of people in a single day, only about 8% of its enormous population have had a first dose so far.<a href="https://www.livemint.com/news/india/covid19-at-current-vaccination-pace-india-won-t-reach-70-coverage-until-yearend-11618797627025.html">At its current pace</a>, India would not vaccinate 70% of its people until December. It has authorized Russia's Sputnik V for use, amid severe shortages of Covishield and Covaxin, which are made domestically.Two political parties campaigning in West Bengal have called off rallies, while Modi's Bharatiya Janata Party <a href="https://www.hindustantimes.com/elections/west-bengal-assembly-election/bjp-limits-rallies-to-500-people-in-west-bengal-amid-surge-in-covid-19-cases-101618844234707.html">decided </a>this week to limit its rallies to 500 people, two days after the prime minister boasted about the size of his crowds. The Kumbh Mela is continuing until the end of the month.In a Tuesday public address, <a href="https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/pm-modi-to-address-nation-on-covid-19-situation-at-8-45-pm-today-live-updates-101618929630164.html">Modi said lockdowns</a> should be only a "last resort" because of the damage they would do to workers' livelihoods. He said making everyone over 18 eligible for vaccination starting in May would ensure laborers were inoculated sooner.He asked states to focus instead on containing specific sites of outbreaks.Delhi began a weeklong lockdown on Monday - closing businesses and ordering people to travel only for essential reasons - saying the city's health system had reached a "tipping point." Maharashtra, the worst-affected state, is severely restricting travel until the end of the month.Dr. Srinath Reddy, the president of the Public Health Foundation of India, who sits on national committees on COVID-19 management, said that for six weeks the country should ban gatherings of more than five people and require masks to be worn outdoors - the type of measures the country eschewed when it thought it was all over.

Indian politicians encouraged a return to normal as COVID-19 cases fell. Now hospitals are overwhelmed as a 'double mutant' variant takes hold - but mass gatherings continue.

New Delhi, Nov 11 (IANS) The winter season amid the Covid-19 pandemic will be very challenging, but a vaccine will be there sometime early next year, hopefully in February-March, and then, there have some degree of normalcy, said AIIMS Director Randeep Guleria in an interview to IANS. However, he underlined the importance of "aggressive" Covid-appropriate behaviour in tackling the spread. Following are excerpts of the interview: Q: From 90,000 cases a day, the number has decreased to 45,000 a day, barring few cities where cases are increasing rapidly? Do you think India will cross the peak by this year-end and cases begin to decline across the nation? A: The challenging time will be next three months which is during the winter months... once we cross that then hopefully, we have two things. One, we have large number of individuals who have recovered and chances of them spreading infection will come down, so the number of cases should come down. Secondly, we should also be having a vaccine, which will be available by that time so by early next year we should have some degree of normalcy, I am hopeful of that by February-March. Q: Is there any specific number on peak associated with this viral infection, for example after the fourth peak, cases will finally begin to decline and there won't be any extraordinary surge in cases? A: So, for India, it is lot of a differential things, if we look at the country as a whole or different region. Different regions in India have behaved differently because increase in number of cases have occurred in different time as the pandemic has progressed. In beginning, we have had a huge peak in large cities, as cases came from outside, and Mumbai and Delhi saw a peak, then the cases came down. We also saw that in the south. We will have peaks and drops. We have crossed one peak and the number of cases has come down. How do we sustain this is a big challenge, as you see in Europe and it has come down, but there has been another peak there. There also been a decrease in number of cases in the US, which have again gone up having more than 1 lakh cases a day. Challenge is to prevent these peaks from happening and blunt them as much as possible. Most pandemics in the past have had about three to four peaks, after which, let us say good amount of herd immunity or vaccine is available. In the 1918 pandemic, there were three major peaks: the first peak in summer months, a larger peak in winters and there was smaller peak in February and March, after which the pandemic became less, but it took quite some time. The challenge is that how do we maintain Covid-19 appropriate behaviour so that we do not have another peak... look at countries like Vietnam, Taiwan and Cambodia. The number of cases has not increased. They had their peak and they were able to sustain the decline in the number of cases. In India, there are certain cities like Delhi where there has been increase in number of cases which is directly linked to crowding, lack of Covid-19 appropriate behaviour and of course other factors like air pollution and fall in temperatures. But, I think it is very important for us to understand that if we want to keep the cases down and say we have crossed the peak, then we have to have good aggressive behaviour, we have to be disciplined, otherwise we have a resurgence of cases during the winter months. Q: Is there inadvertent under-reporting of deaths and Covid-19 cases in India? Are we doing enough testing? A: Our testing has been very focused. Testing we are doing has gone up dramatically, we have done 14 lakh tests in a day now. The testing is going up every day and the number of testing we are doing is significant. The mortality is being reported, I do not think death rate is not hidden in any manner. We have reasonably good information as far as mortality and cases are concerned. We need to augment testing as much as we can, especially when we start to look at small towns and rural India. (Sumit Saxena can be contacted at sumit.s@ians.in) --IANS ss/vd

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