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Mumbai (Maharashtra) [India], August 8 (ANI): <keyword id="64190" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="RBI-Governor" source="Orion">RBI Governor</keyword> <keyword id="6359111" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Shaktikanta-Das" source="Orion">Shaktikanta Das</keyword> says <keyword id="19895000" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="inflation" source="keywords">inflation</keyword> will moderate from July onwards as the monsoon has improved and <keyword id="489239" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Global-food-prices" source="Orion">global food prices</keyword> have shown signs of easing in July. Das said, "Global food prices showed signs of easing in the month of July after registering an increase since March 2024." A degree of relief in food inflation is expected from the pickup in southwest monsoon and healthy progress in Kharif sowing. Buffer stocks of cereals continue to be above the norms, according to RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das. Das added, "Assuming a normal monsoon and taking into account the 4.9 per cent inflation print, Q1 CPI inflation for the current financial year (2024-25) is projected at 4.5 per cent, with q2 at 4.4 per cent, Q3 at 4.7 per cent and Q4 at 4.3 per cent. CPI inflation for the first quarter of next financial year (Q1 2025-26) is projected at 4.4 per cent." The inflation landscape reflects mixed signals, to which Das said, "<keyword id="21258540" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="headline-inflation" source="keywords">Headline inflation</keyword> eased up to 5.1 per cent in June 2024 due to higher than expected food inflation. Fuel remained in deflation for the 10th consecutive month. Core inflation moderated to a historic low in the months of May and June." RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das, outlined the <keyword id="19900794" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="economic-growth" source="keywords">economic growth</keyword> with real <keyword id="19972825" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="GDP-growth" source="keywords">GDP growth</keyword> of 7.2 per cent for the fiscal year 2024-25 and headline inflation eased to 5.1 per cent in June, on Thursday. Das said, "Real GDP growth for 2024-25 is projected at 7.2 per cent with Q1 at 7.1 per cent, Q2 at 7.2 per cent, Q3 at 7.3 per cent and Q4 at 7.2 per cent. Real GDP growth for Q1 2025-26, this is something which we are giving for the first time, is projected at 7.2 per cent. The risks are evenly balanced." He added, "We have slightly moderated the <keyword id="387719" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="growth-projection" source="Orion">growth projection</keyword> for the first quarter of the current financial year in relation to the projection we gave in the previous MPC in June. This is primarily due to updated information on certain high-frequency indicators which show lower than anticipated corporate profitability, general government expenditure and core industries output." This forecast marks a slight moderation from previous estimates provided in the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting in June, attributed to recent updates on high-frequency indicators such as corporate profitability, general government expenditure, and core industries output. The inflation landscape reflects mixed signals, to which Das said, "Headline inflation eased up to 5.1 per cent in June 2024 due to higher than expected food inflation. Fuel remained in deflation for the 10th consecutive month. Core inflation moderated to a historic low in the months of May and June." Balancing robust growth projections with a nuanced understanding of inflation dynamics Governor Das stated, "Food inflation which has a weight of around 46 per cent in the CPI basket, contributed to more than 75 per cent of headline inflation in May and June. Vegetable prices increased sharply and contributed about 35 per cent to inflation in June. High inflation pressures persisted across other major food items also." Governor Das mentioned softening in core inflation continues to be broad-based with core services inflation touching a new low in the current CPI series during the month of May and June 2024. Das stated, "The high food price momentum likely to have continued in the month of July also. Large favourable base effects may however push headline inflation downwards in July. The Impact of the revision in milk prices mobile tariffs also needs to be carefully monitored." A degree of relief in food inflation is expected from the pickup in south west monsoon and healthy progress in Kharif sowing. Buffer stocks of cereals continue to be above the norms, according to RBI Governor Shaktikanta das. Das anticipates some relief in food inflation due to the expected pickup in the southwest monsoon and healthy progress in Kharif sowing. Buffer stocks of cereals remain above the normative levels, contributing to a more stable food price environment. Global food prices, which have been on an upward trajectory since March 2024, showed signs of easing in July.

RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das projects 7.2% GDP growth for 2024-25, reports eased inflation to 5.1% in June

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Inflation accelerated as expected in October.</li><li>The consumer price index increased 2.6% from October 2023, matching the forecast.</li></ul>As expected by economic forecasters, inflation heated up in October.The consumer price index sped up as expected to a 2.6% year-over-year growth rate in October from <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/inflation-september-cpi-consumer-price-index-federal-reserve-interest-rates-2024-10">September's rate of 2.4%</a>.Inflation had been cooling down for most of 2024. Before the latest reading, the last uptick in the headline year-over-year rate was in March.Core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, rose 3.3% in October from a year ago, matching the forecast and the previous year-over-year increase.The Federal Reserve will likely want to see signs of inflation continuing to come down to its 2% target as Federal Open Market Committee members decide whether to continue cutting interest rates. There are still a lot of data releases to come out before the year's final scheduled FOMC meeting in December, including further reports for inflation measures like the CPI.The Fed decided in its November meeting to <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/federal-reserve-cuts-interest-rates-quarter-point-powell-inflation-election-2024-11">cut interest rates by 25 basis points</a>, which was largely expected and smaller than <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/fed-cuts-interest-rates-how-much-september-fomc-powell-inflation-2024-9">September's 50-basis-point cut</a>.Before the latest CPI report, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html">CME FedWatch</a> showed investors were assigning around a 60% probability to a 25-basis-point cut in December. After the CPI news release, that increased to around 70%.November's jobs report, to be published in early December, will also help Americans and the Fed better understand the labor market in the fall after employment readings in <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/october-jobs-report-unemployment-rate-nonfarm-payroll-growth-federal-reserve-2024-11">October</a> were surprisingly weak amid hurricanes and strikes."We're trying to be on a middle path where we can maintain the strength in the labor market while also enabling further progress on inflation," Fed chair Jerome Powell said at a press conference on November 7.This is a developing story. Please check back for updates.

Inflation heated up in October as expected

India's GDP growth is projected at 7.2 per cent in 2024-25, around 7 per cent in the next fiscal, and after that, there is a strong likelihood that the growth will revert to the 8 per cent trend, said <keyword id="19899810" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Reserve-Bank-of-India" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="Reserve Bank of India" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="Reserve Bank of India">Reserve Bank of India</keyword> deputy governor <keyword id="20244361" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Michael-Debabrata-Patra" source="keywords">Michael Debabrata Patra</keyword>. He was speaking at the New York Fed Central Banking Seminar organised by the <keyword id="20238413" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Federal-Reserve-Bank" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="Federal Reserve Bank" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="Federal Reserve Bank">Federal Reserve Bank</keyword> here on Monday. "...I do believe with all the strength of my conviction that India's time has come," he said, and highlighted the country heads into its future with the youngest population in the world with a median age of 28 years. Unlike in many parts of the world, the working age population is growing -- every sixth working age person is an Indian. Patra said that since independence in 1947, India's growth path has undergone three structural shifts with trend growth, having risen to 7 per cent during 2002-2019. After the severe contraction during the pandemic, a new growth trajectory averaging 8 per cent seems to be forming during 2021-24, he said. India is now regarded as the fastest growing major economy in the world. Already the fifth largest economy in terms of market exchange rates, it is poised to become the third largest economy by 2030, the senior RBI official said and added the country is already the third largest economy in terms of <keyword id="20776921" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="purchasing-power-parity" source="keywords">purchasing power parity</keyword>. "Our projections show that India's <keyword id="21013593" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="real-GDP-growth" source="keywords">real GDP growth</keyword> will be 7.2 per cent in 2024-25 and around 7.0 per cent in 2025-26 in a cyclical correction to the rebound from the pandemic. Thereafter, there is a strong likelihood that India's growth will revert to the 8 per cent trend," Patra said. On inflation, he said it is projected to average 4.5 per cent in 2024-25 and 4.1 per cent in 2025-26. Consumer Price Index (CPI) based inflation fell below target during July-August but rose to 5.5 per cent in September on the back of a pickup in price momentum in some food items and adverse base effects inherent in year-on-year measurement. "Our projection indicates that these price pressures will persist in October and November before headline inflation realigns with the target from December 2024 and remains aligned in 2025-26," the deputy governor said. He also emphasised that India is emerging as a world leader in leveraging <keyword id="20181895" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="digital-technologies" source="keywords">digital technologies</keyword> for transformative change.

India likely to grow at 7.2% in FY25, says RBI deputy governor

<ul class="summary-list"><li>This post originally appeared in the Insider Today newsletter.</li></ul>Happy Friday! Elections can be stressful, so take some tips from new research on how to lower your blood pressure. <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/lower-your-blood-pressure-5-minutes-exercise-a-day-study-2024-11">Daily short, intense workouts</a> can be your best bet to fight disease and improve longevity.In today's big story, the Fed <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/federal-reserve-cuts-interest-rates-quarter-point-powell-inflation-election-2024-11">cutting interest rates yesterday was never really in doubt</a>. What comes next isn't as clear.What's on deck:<ul><li>Markets: Goldman Sachs announced <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/goldman-sachs-partners-revealed-see-full-list-names-diversity-women-2024-11">its newest class of partners</a>.</li><li>Tech: The stock market is already indicating <a target="_blank" rel="noopener" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/big-tech-winners-losers-trump-election-win-according-to-market-2024-11">winners and losers among Big Tech</a>.</li><li>Business: Hiring experts are predicting <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-win-affect-job-hiring-trends-and-employer-confidence-2024-11">a "Trump bump" for the jobs market</a>.</li></ul>But first, more relief … for now.If this was forwarded to you, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/subscription/newsletter/insider-today">sign up here.</a><h3 id="7fa5f018-5b05-4a37-a8dc-d3f89138bcb3">The big story</h3><h2 id="5fd547b9-ec52-41fc-8e08-4f4b27dd8097">The Fed's new conundrum</h2><div type="image" title="Jerome Powell on top of stock market chart going down." height="900" width="1800" msid="115090330" hostid="261" sizebytes="70080"></div>Americans got a bit more relief from the Fed, but questions are swirling about what the president-elect means for future plans.The Federal Reserve <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/federal-reserve-cuts-interest-rates-quarter-point-powell-inflation-election-2024-11">cut interest rates by 25 basis points Thursday</a>, its second-straight reduction since September in a move that was largely expected. Additional rate cuts aren't as clear, though, as Donald Trump's proposed widespread tariffs <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-inflation-interest-rates-fed-rate-cuts-fomc-meeting-outlook-2024-11">could slow down the Fed's plans</a>.Economists have said Trump's 10-20% blanket tariff on most imported goods will cause inflation to flare up as producers and importers pass the cost of the tax onto consumers. Prior to the election, Nobel economist Paul Krugman said Trump's tariff plans would result in an "inflationary shock that is bigger than almost anything else you could do through federal policy."It's not just speculation from economists. The market is indicating inflation could lead the Fed to keep borrowing rates high. Treasury yields soared the day after the election, a sign Wall Street sees interest rates staying elevated.Interest-rate traders have also recalibrated their expectations. The chances of a 25-point December rate cut went from 83% at the start of the month down to as much as 63% yesterday following the Fed's announcement, according to the CME FedWatch tool. (It currently stands around 75%.)<div type="image" title="Photo of Donald Trump" height="1279" width="1920" msid="115090327" hostid="261" sizebytes="95086"></div>Still, speculating on what could come from a president-elect is a tricky game.Greg McBride, chief financial analyst at <a target="_blank" href="http://Bankrate.com">Bankrate.com</a>, told Insider Today that Fed Chair Jerome Powell didn't indicate a pause in cuts was coming in December during Thursday's press conference. Powell also emphasized the election won't impact the central bank's near-term actions, McBride added."Until there are policy specifics being passed into law, there is nothing for the Fed to put in their economic models and they won't speculate or assume anything in the interim," McBride wrote via email.There's also the question of whether Trump's tariff would be as inflationary as some fear. During his first term, the former president issued tariffs against China that didn't cause prices to spike.Trump's proposals this time around are much more aggressive, but it's not clear what will actually be put in place."Nobody knows what will be implemented and what is just posturing for negotiation," McBride added.Dominique Lapointe, director of macro strategy for Manulife Investment Management, told Insider Today via email the firm's base case is still a 25-point cut in December. The Fed would change course in reaction to tariffs only if they are official and making an impact, meaning the central bank's policy likely wouldn't change until mid-2025, Lapointe added.One thing that is clear: <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/powell-wont-resign-federal-reserve-step-down-trump-election-2024-11">Powell's not leaving</a>.When a reporter asked the Fed leader if he would resign if Trump, who has been critical of him, asked him to step down, his response was simple: "No."<h3 id="77f31a4c-8462-4e3d-a71f-838cb79493fb">News brief</h3><h2 id="1fcd294b-3f53-425f-9f20-4093e8623b59">Top headlines</h2><ul><li>Democrats wished the election was about jobs. <a target="_blank" rel="noopener" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/how-trump-won-election-high-prices-cost-of-living-unemployment-2024-11">Trump's win showed it was about prices</a>.</li><li><a target="_blank" rel="noopener" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-economy-local-government-debt-rescue-trump-us-presidential-election-2024-11">China announced a $1.4 trillion stimulus package</a> to boost its economy on the heels of Trump's election.</li><li>Airbnb reported its earnings. <a target="_blank" rel="noopener" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/airbnb-earnings-shares-most-interesting-things-cohost-2024-11">Here are four highlights</a>.</li><li>Trump said he will divide Russia from China. <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/donald-trump-plan-divide-china-russia-axis-is-likely-fail-2024-11">It's a tough bromance to break</a>.</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/peter-thiel-prediction-correct-election-trump-harris-2024-11">Peter Thiel's 'contrarian'</a> election prediction came true.</li></ul><h2 id="8120060b-ae66-48dc-b149-f0489a30ffa2">3 things in markets</h2><div type="image" title="Photo of MAGA hat on exchange desk" height="655" width="1000" msid="115090331" hostid="261" sizebytes="44410"></div><ol><li>Morningstar thinks you should stay the course with your investment plan. Trump's win sent the stock market surging, but that <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-trade-election-investing-stock-market-strategy-sp500-valuations-morningstar-2024-11">doesn't mean you should rethink your investing strategy</a>, Morningstar Senior US Market Strategist Dave Sekera said. His call for restraint is partly due to how high stock valuations currently are, although he does see opportunity among small-caps.</li><li>The new Goldman execs who just got the call of a lifetime. Goldman Sachs tapped<a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/goldman-sachs-partners-revealed-see-full-list-names-diversity-women-2024-11"> 95 people to join its exclusive partnership</a> on Thursday, a record high under CEO David Solomon. Twenty-six of the new partners are women, a group closely watched after a series of high-profile female partner exits.</li><li>Trump's election might be Citi's saving grace. The bank has spent more than $7.4 billion addressing regulators' concerns, specifically about its data and risk problems. <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-election-citi-jane-fraser-regulators-frc-occ-2024-11">Donald Trump could ease that pain</a>. The president-elect has signaled he'd cut down on Wall Street oversight, previously pledging he'd eliminate 10 rules for each new one.</li></ol><h2 id="f4b54806-7f81-450c-ba32-92560d4fae9b">3 things in tech</h2><div type="image" title="Musk and Trump." height="2499" width="3329" msid="115090332" hostid="261" sizebytes="268836"></div><ol><li>How Elon Musk swung Pennsylvania for Trump. The tech tycoon <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/elon-musk-pennsylvania-america-pac-donald-trump-harris-2024-11">spent millions on the Keystone State</a> to deliver it to Trump, launching a last-minute canvassing effort and untested ground-game techniques. Musk's strategy could usher in a "new era" in campaign spending, one political scientist told BI.</li><li>Big Tech's biggest winners and losers after Trump's victory. Which companies stand to gain the most under a new Trump presidency? BI looked at the two-day stock performance of <a target="_blank" rel="noopener" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/big-tech-winners-losers-trump-election-win-according-to-market-2024-11">many of the largest tech companies to find out</a>.</li><li>Trump's plan to "never ban" TikTok will be tough to fulfill, legal experts say. The former president campaigned on the promise that TikTok would be here to stay. <a target="_blank" rel="noopener" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/donald-trump-block-tiktok-ban-legal-experts-2024-11">But legal experts told BI he's only got two options to try and save it</a> — and neither of them are straightforward.</li></ol><h2 id="9260fa45-d397-4b3c-b4f8-4bb193976216">3 things in business</h2><div type="image" title="Image of Walmart sign outside store" height="1280" width="1920" msid="115090336" hostid="261" sizebytes="228442"></div><ol><li>Retail giants prepare for Trump 2.0. Tariffs are the biggest concern for superstores like Walmart, Target, and Costco. If the president-elect follows through on his campaign promises, consumers could foot the bill of high tariffs through higher prices. On the other hand, tax cuts could spur spending — <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-win-retail-impact-walmart-costco-target-tariffs-tax-cuts-2024-11">but they'd take many months to see results</a>.</li><li>The job market under Trump. Hiring experts expect a "Trump bump" as employers get comfortable posting openings now that the election's outcome is clear. They forecast a postelection hiring rush and <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-win-affect-job-hiring-trends-and-employer-confidence-2024-11">increased demand in some sectors</a>, particularly tech.</li><li>David Zaslav is optimistic about Trump's effect on Big Media. The Warner Bros. Discovery CEO wanted a president who was more open to M&amp;A, since his company has been eyeing consolidation for a while. A second <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/wbd-trump-zaslav-consolidation-earnings-2024-11">Trump administration might provide that opportunity</a>, Zaslav said on WBD's earnings call, but it's too early to be certain.</li></ol><h2 id="1ad7b482-3f4b-44b4-81b6-a864aa386478">In other news</h2><ul><li>The Polymarket 'whale' actually made $85 million, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/polymarket-whale-banked-85-million-profit-trump-president-election-win-2024-11">far more than originally thought</a>.</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/harris-lost-biden-unpopularity-trump-election-2024-11">Harris couldn't escape</a> Biden's unpopularity.</li><li>Investors accuse the ex-CEO of the company that helped take Trump Media public of <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/ex-ceo-patrick-orlando-lawsuit-trump-media-investors-shares-2024-11">stiffing them out of millions of shares</a>.</li></ul><h2 id="9f5d80ac-3466-429f-a50a-2ffbb70c65ff">What's happening today</h2><ul><li>Paramount, Sony, and other companies report earnings.</li><li>Grammy Award nominations are announced.</li></ul>The Insider Today team: Dan DeFrancesco, deputy editor and anchor, in New York. Jordan Parker Erb, editor, in New York. Hallam Bullock, senior editor, in London. Ella Hopkins, associate editor, in London. Amanda Yen, fellow, in New York. Milan Sehmbi, fellow, in London.

Fed cuts rates again, but Trump's tariff plan sparks inflation fears and market uncertainty

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Investors need to be wary as sticky inflation remains a risk, Deutsche Bank says.</li><li>The firm detailed five reasons why consumer prices could stay persistently elevated.</li></ul>It's tempting to think the Federal Reserve's fight against inflation is over, given the central bank's recent rate cuts and sharpened <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/fed-rate-cut-explained-inflation-labor-market-conditions-outlook-recession-2024-9">focus on the labor market</a>. But it's not yet time for investors to relax, Deutsche Bank wrote on Monday.Though inflation now hovers close to the Federal Reserve's 2% target rate, it's not yet time to declare victory: prices continue to <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/inflation-september-cpi-consumer-price-index-federal-reserve-interest-rates-2024-10">run hotter than expected</a>, and that's happening alongside monetary easing."If inflation does return, this could have very important implications for markets," Deutsche Bank strategists said. "We saw in 2022 how there was a massive selloff across both bonds and equities."The firm detailed five reasons why inflation risks must still be monitored:First, initial interest-rate cuts have been more broader and deeper than expected on a global basis. In the US, the Federal Reserve cut the Fed funds rate by 50 basis points, citing lower headline inflation to justify its aggressive policy flip.While that much is true, history shows that easing cycles are precisely the time to be cautious over inflation, Deutsche said."If inflation does prove sticky above target today, then that could force central banks to keep monetary policy in restrictive territory for longer," the note said.Second, stimulus momentum in China and worsening geopolitics in the Middle East have triggered a notable pickup in commodity prices.Oil prices have jumped this month as investors adjust to escalating tensions between Israel and Iran. After an Iranian missile attack on Israel triggered promises of retaliation, the market has braced for a possible disruption to the region's crude output.<a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Brent</a> crude gained sharply in early October, peaking at $80 per barrel. Deutsche noted this as a considerable high, noting that the international benchmark traded below $70 a barrel just one month prior.If Israel's response decimated Iran's oil installations, analysts expect prices to hit as much as $200 per barrel.Meanwhile, industrial metals such as <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/copper-price">copper</a> have also taken flight, after China announced a series of stimulus measures to reenergize its fleeting economy. The metal is a key component in <a target="_blank" href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/china-copper-iron-ore-stay-stimulus-believers-others-sceptical-russell-2024-10-14/">construction and manufacturing</a>, and can stand to benefit if the world's second-largest economy recovers.Third, odds of a US recession are ebbing as the economy shows signs of resilience that could keep inflation elevated."Much as the stronger news on growth is welcome, it also means that economic demand and inflation is likely to be stronger than it would otherwise have been," analysts wrote.Fourth, September's consumer price index report surprised investors last week.Not only was the inflation reading higher than estimated, core CPI ran at its fastest pace in six months, gaining 0.31%. Core CPI's three-month annualized rate moved up to 3.1%, compared to August's 2.1% print."Although that's only one report, it served as a reminder of how inflation could prove more persistent, and it were the stickier categories in the basket that were holding inflation up," Deutsche wrote. For instance, the Atlanta Fed's "sticky CPI" measure stood at its strongest in five months.Fifth, money supply growth is still accelerating.According to the bank, an increase in this measure can be read as an advance warning that inflation could stay persistently high. This was the case in the post-pandemic period, Deutsche said — though it is admittedly moving up from a low base.The firm cited the fact that in August, US M2 money supply rose 2.0% year-over-year, the highest growth rate since September 2022.

5 reasons why inflation will be stickier than expected going forward, Deutsche Bank says

<keyword id="280418" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="Wholesale-inflation" source="Orion">Wholesale inflation</keyword> in the country surged to a 16-month high of 3.36% in June on account of rise in prices of <keyword id="21654959" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="food-articles" source="keywords">food articles</keyword>, especially <keyword id="19996547" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="vegetables" source="keywords">vegetables</keyword> and manufactured items. This was the fourth consecutive month when <keyword id="19895000" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="inflation" source="keywords">inflation</keyword> witnessed an upward journey. The wholesale price index (<keyword id="19936844" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="WPI" source="keywords">WPI</keyword>) based inflation was 2.61% in May. It was (-) 4.18% in June 2023. Wholesale inflation had touched a high of 3.85% in February 2023."Positive rate of inflation in June, 2024 is primarily due to increase in prices of food articles, manufacture of food products, crude petroleum &amp; natural gas, mineral oils, other manufacturing etc," the Ministry of Commerce &amp; Industry said in a statement on Monday. As per the data, inflation in food articles rose 10.87% cent in June, as against 9.82% in May. Inflation in vegetables was 38.76% during June, up from 32.42% in May. Onion inflation was at 93.35%, while potato was 66.37% in the month under review. Pulses inflation rose 21.64% in June. During the month, inflation in other food items like fruits stood at 10.14%, cereals at 9.27%, and milk at 3.37%. The up move in the WPI inflation in June 2024 was broad-based, driven by all the major segments except fuel and power, ICRA Chief Economist Aditi Nayar said. Looking ahead, she said, the headline WPI inflation is expected to dip to about 2% in July 2024, driven by a favourable base, as well as some cooling in global commodity prices. With regard to oil prices, she said, the average price of the Indian basket of crude oil has been quite volatile in July 2024 so far, on the back of supply-demand mismatches, witnessing a month-on-month rise (USD 86.6/bbl up to July 11). Higher crude oil prices might exert an upward pressure to the headline WPI inflation in the ongoing month, she added. In the fuel and power basket, inflation stood at 1.03%, marginally lower than 1.35% in May. However, price rise in crude petroleum &amp; natural gas was in double digit at 12.55%during the month. In manufactured products, inflation was at 1.43% in June, higher than 0.78% in May. The rise in June WPI was in line with the <keyword id="19999652" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="retail-inflation" source="keywords">retail inflation</keyword> data for the month. Retail inflation rose to a four-month high of 5.1% in June, data released last week showed. The <keyword id="19899810" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Reserve-Bank-of-India" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="Reserve Bank of India" meta.hostid="267" meta.entityid="Reserve Bank of India">Reserve Bank of India</keyword> (<keyword id="19899808" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="rbi" source="keywords">RBI</keyword>) mainly takes into account retail inflation while framing the monetary policy.

WPI inflation surges to 16-month high of 3.36% in June on costlier vegetables

<ul class="summary-list"><li>The upcoming inflation report will help determine the Fed's next move. </li><li>Friday's surprisingly strong jobs data has slashed bets of a half-point rate cut.</li></ul>The labor market's unexpected surge in September has left investors wondering about the path of Federal Reserve policy after the central bank said it's shifted focus to the labor market after years of battling inflation. However, following the strong payroll report, market commentators say they're still concerned that inflation may not be completely in the rear-view — and next week's consumer price index report will be key. The US saw an astonishing 254,000 new jobs added last month, smashing consensus estimates of 147,000. The unemployment rate dropped to 4.1%.According to economist Mohamed El-Erian, this permits the Fed to once again devote some of its attention to fighting inflation. Inflation concerns took a back seat in recent months as the central bank <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/fed-rate-cut-explained-inflation-labor-market-conditions-outlook-recession-2024-9">shifted focus</a> toward what appeared to be a deteriorating labor picture. But with September's jobs report crushing expectations, concerns may <a target="_blank" href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-10-04/summers-says-50-basis-point-cut-in-september-was-a-mistake">have been premature</a>. "For the Fed, it means push back much harder against pressure from the markets to put you in the single-mandate box," El-Erian told <a target="_blank" href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-10-04/el-erian-warns-fed-after-jobs-data-inflation-is-not-dead">Bloomberg TV</a>. "Enough talk about 'inflation is dead.' Inflation is not dead. Enough talk about the Fed should only be concerned about maximum employment."UBS suggested that the upcoming consumer price index report will be the next big thing for markets. "CPI for September will be a key data release. If prices rise faster than expected on top of the stronger labor data, chances for the Fed to skip the November meeting will increase," UBS senior economist Brian Rose said in a Friday note.Bank of America analysts wrote on Friday that the Fed may have panicked last month and that another jumbo cut is probably not warranted. The bank adjusted its forecast for the November Fed meeting to call for a 25-basis-point move after previously predicting 50 basis points. Few analysts have implied that the Fed will leave interest rates unchanged next month, but investors have markedly readjusted expectations.Virtually no trader projects that the Fed will slash interest rates by a half-point in November, although the odds of another big move stood at around 33% before Friday's jobs report. <a target="_blank" href="https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html?redirect=/trading/interest-rates/countdown-to-fomc.html">CME FedWatch data</a> now indicates a 99% chance of a quarter-point cut.Just 1% expect rates to be unchanged. How inflation data could compound these forecasts will be known on Thursday, when the CPI report comes out.Though banks such as Barclays have suggested that the job market's strength has the potential to renew inflation concerns down the line, a large upswing is by no means a consensus call.For instance, Bank of America forecasts a 0.1% and 0.3% month-over-month gain in September's headline and core CPI, respectively. Those moves shouldn't be enough to impact the Fed's thinking.Still, with inflation still slightly above the central bank's 2% target , some analysts are cautioning investors not to forget about price pressures. According to Principal Asset Management's Seema Shah, the labor surprise only makes this more relevant."Markets will need to keep a closer eye on inflation as, now, there are policy risks on both sides of the economy," the chief global strategist said.

'Inflation is not dead': Consumer prices are still in focus for investors despite the Fed's labor-market pivot 

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Contradictory messages about inflation and the labor market have investors on guard.</li><li>Consumer prices exceeded expectations this week, even as producer prices fell flat.</li></ul>The US economy is humming along, for better or worse — or at least it appears that way.A shockingly strong <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/september-jobs-report-unemployment-rate-nonfarm-payroll-growth-federal-reserve-2024-10">September jobs report</a> is one of many data points that <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/recession-outlook-economy-goldman-unemployment-jobs-report-nonfarm-payrolls-rates-2024-10">supports this stance</a>. Employers brought on 254,000 workers last month, versus an estimate of 147,000. The unemployment rate ticked down for a second straight month, clocking in at 4.1%.<div type="image" title="Job adds 2024" height="534" width="1044" msid="114188180" hostid="261" sizebytes="13646"></div>Surprisingly resilient inflation also contradicts <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/is-a-recession-coming-unemployment-rate-spending-anna-wong-bloomberg-2024-9">the narrative that the economy is weakening</a>. Price growth is slowly falling from its peak, but it <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/inflation-september-cpi-consumer-price-index-federal-reserve-interest-rates-2024-10">exceeded expectations</a> in September <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/inflation-august-consumer-price-index-federal-reserve-rate-cuts-2024-9">after a hot reading in August</a>. If consumer spending really was weak, inflation would likely be lower.And <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/how-to-invest-q3-earnings-season-recession-risk-investing-strategy-2024-10">then there are earnings</a>, which are tracking to rise at the fastest pace since 2018, other than the pandemic boom of 2021. Estimates for 2025 are 5 percentage points higher at 15%.<div type="image" title="2024 earnings as of Q2" height="822" width="1424" msid="114188187" hostid="261" sizebytes="55446"></div>Those signals imply solid, if not robust, economic growth. Data compiled by the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta supports this view, judging by its <a target="_blank" href="https://www.atlantafed.org/cqer/research/gdpnow">new call for above-average GDP growth</a> in the third quarter.<div type="image" title="Q3 GDP 2024 chart" height="1074" width="1318" msid="114188184" hostid="261" sizebytes="38136"></div>"They're looking for a third-quarter GDP report of 3.2%," said Steve Sosnick, the chief strategist at Interactive Brokers, in a recent interview with Business Insider. "Does that sound like an economy that needs life support?"<h2 id="9d5ef591-7fb1-4126-80af-686835b40156">Mixed signals abound at a crucial crossroads</h2>But while the glass-half-full case for the economy is compelling, it's easy to poke holes in it.After all, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-inflation-cpi-data-jobless-claims-labor-market-fed-2024-10">jobless claims</a> just rose to the highest level in more than 12 months, complicating an otherwise convincing upbeat narrative about the labor market. Manufacturing readings are also <a target="_blank" href="https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/manufacturing-pmi">flirting with multi-year lows</a>, and <a target="_blank" href="https://www.conference-board.org/topics/consumer-confidence">consumer confidence</a> is lackluster while <a target="_blank" href="https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UMCSENT">sentiment is middling</a>.<div type="image" title="Manufacturing PMI late 2024" height="906" width="1516" msid="114188183" hostid="261" sizebytes="28334"></div>Further muddying the waters is the Producer Price Index (PPI), which <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/interestrates/u-s-producer-prices-unexpectedly-unchanged-in-september-1033838444">came in flat on Friday</a>. That seems to contradict the previous day's <a target="_blank" href="https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm">Consumer Price Index (CPI) report</a>.<div type="image" title="Consumer confidence late 2024" height="756" width="1260" msid="114188189" hostid="261" sizebytes="27970"></div>The bond market is certainly confused. Resilient inflation in a healthy economy would warrant higher rates, but elevated jobless claims should lead to the opposite. And the Federal Reserve's <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/fed-cuts-interest-rates-how-much-september-fomc-powell-inflation-2024-9">extra-large rate cut</a> last month should take Treasury yields down, though they've surged instead."This is a sure sign of market confusion or lack of conviction," John Kerschner, the head of US Securitised Products at Janus Henderson Investors, said of the direction of bond yields in written commentary on Thursday.Equity investors are facing higher-than-usual stakes since the S&amp;P 500 and other market indexes are <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/stocks-to-buy-mid-caps-market-outlook-investing-strategy-oppenheimer-2024-10">near record highs</a>aa. Plus, the pivotal US elections are right around the corner.<h2 id="6db3a3ca-838d-4670-b30c-5f29a533efa2">Inflation is a threat that won't sink the economy</h2>While there's plenty of economic data to get excited about, persistent price growth is a problem."It's almost impossible to come up with a scenario where a higher-than-expected inflation number is good news," Sosnick said.Although a 0.2 percentage point jump for the CPI may not seem like much, Sosnick said data from recent months can be annualized to over 3%, which is well above the Fed's inflation target."If we're going to be data dependent, we have to at least look at the data," Sosnick said.Other market observers are also worried that consumer prices are headed the wrong way."Admittedly, more data like this month's would leave lingering concerns around inflation," said Preston Caldwell, Morningstar's chief US economist, in written commentary after the CPI report.And while Jim Baird, the chief investment officer at Plante Moran Financial Advisors, thinks consumers shouldn't lose sleep over slightly higher prices, investors must eye the data closely."The longer-term disinflationary trend appears intact, although the divergence between headline inflation and the core reading over the 12 months ended in September will raise some questions," Baird said in written commentary sent to Business Insider.If inflation doesn't go away quietly for whatever reason, the Fed won't be able to cut rates <a target="_blank" href="https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html?redirect=/trading/interest-rates/countdown-to-fomc.html">as much as it's planning to in 2025</a>. That could emerge as a major headwind for US equities."Is inflation really down for the count?" said Joe Quinlan — head of markets strategy at Merrill and Private Bank, Bank of America — in an interview with Business Insider. "That could be reversed by geopolitics related to <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price?type=wti">oil prices</a> in the Middle East, the China reflation story, and the US economy just being stronger than expected."However, that latter point is why investors shouldn't panic about an imminent recession.Higher-than-hoped inflation is rarely compatible with an economic downturn, so if price growth does persist, it likely won't be in an earnings-crushing contraction. Stocks may take a hit if rates don't fall as quickly as the market wants, but there should be a firm floor under them.Skyler Weinand, the chief investment officer at Regan Capital, expects the Fed to be careful with rate cuts since the latest economic data is a Rorschach test."It's clear the Fed is divided about the path forward, and the Fed may stand down on any rate movement in November and wait for more data to materialize," Weinand said in commentary.But rates will eventually fall back to normal, which Weinand thinks will help the US economy secure a long-rumored soft landing. That means <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/is-a-recession-coming-unemployment-rate-spending-anna-wong-bloomberg-2024-9">recession calls</a> may not come true for years."Given a steeper curve and strong employment, the US stock market is positioned to keep barreling on," Weinand said. "We've had some tremendous double-digit broader market return years since Covid, which may be tempered. But it's hard to see a recession or market pain coming anytime soon."

Why economists and strategists still say a recession is postponed, despite a startling inflation report

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Headline inflation cooled as expected in August, rising 2.5% from a year ago.</li><li>But core inflation came in hotter than expected, driven by housing costs.</li></ul><a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/personal-finance/investing/what-causes-inflation">Inflation</a> slowed in August in line with expectations.The consumer price index, published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, increased 2.5% over the year from August 2023 to this past August, matching the <a target="_blank" href="https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/cpi-733">forecast</a> of 2.5% and below July's 2.9% rate.But the core CPI reading rose unexpectedly to 0.3%, from 0.2% the previous month, driven by higher housing costs.The new data will factor into the Federal Open Market Committee's interest-rate decision next week, with the hot core figure decreasing the odds of a jumbo 50-basis-point cut. The CME FedWatch tool — which calculates the market's probabilities for rate cuts of specific sizes — is now assigning just a 15% likelihood to a bigger move, down from where it was after the August jobs report.Softening but still relatively strong <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/unemployment-rate-job-growth-interest-rate-cuts-federal-reserve-recession-2024-9">labor market data</a> will also weigh on the Fed's decision. Data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics out last Friday showed unemployment dropped from 4.3% in July to 4.2% in August, and monthly job growth has cooled during the summer."The question will be whether the totality of the data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks are consistent with rising confidence on inflation and maintaining a solid labor market," Fed Chair Jerome Powell said in a July press conference following the FOMC policy interest rate decision. "If that test is met, a reduction in our policy rate could be on the table as soon as the next meeting in September."Powell also said during that conference that "we will be data dependent but not data point dependent, so it will not be a question of responding specifically to one or two data releases."This is a developing story. Please check back for updates.

You Searched For "headline inflation" and got 9 results

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