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Economists at the country's largest lender, SBI, today said they see India's Q2 real GDP growth slowing down further to 6.5% in the September quarter of this fiscal year. Amid concerns over the country's economic growth rate and whether it is slowing down, the analysts said they expect FY25 growth to come "closer to" 7%. SBI analysts join a long line of agencies like Fitch, ADB, IMF, Moody, World Bank, S&amp;P, and even RBI in forecasting India's GDP growth for FY25 in the range of 6.8% to 7.2% for FY25, driven by robust consumption and investment. SIP inflows have been at an all-time high, and so has QIP (qualified institutional placement) fundraising. As many as 71 companies raised Rs 88,678 crore this year through QIPs. Activity in Indian primary markets also remained robust, with 78 mainboard IPOs in 2024; this is a 111% rise from just 38 listings in FY23. Between April and June 2024, India's real GDP grew by 6.7%, the lowest growth seen in 15 quarters, pushing experts to believe that India is caught in a cycle of slowdown. "There is some incipient pressure evident on the domestic economy. Based on our analysis of 50 meaningful leading indicators (both consumption and demand-centric), a dip looks plausible across select cohorts of agriculture, industry, and services in Q2," the <keyword id="22337294" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="SBI-economists" source="keywords">SBI economists</keyword> added. Stating that they track 50 indicators to gauge economic activity, SBIs note said the proportion of indicators showing acceleration declined to 69% in Q2 FY25, as against 80% in Q2 FY24 and 78% in Q1 FY25. However, things might be changing now, given that rural demand has started looking up amidst muted urban demand. SBI also explained that the ongoing regulatory tightening on unsecured lending and roadblocks that are hindering rollover/refinancing of debt through unsecured credit are dismantling the unwarranted exuberance that had built up post-pandemic, especially in the urban areas. Madhu Lunawat, CIO &amp; Fund Manager, Bharat Value Fund states that the overall investment environment remains strong due to favorable economic conditions supporting government policies &amp; reforms. "The sustainable inflow from domestic investors is going to support the Indian equity market in any kind of correction. The long-term bullish structure of Indian economy will continue to attract new domestic &amp; global investors to participate in India’s growth story through various Investment avenues.” <h2>Rate cuts not on cards</h2>RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das clarified today that changing the monetary policy stance to 'neutral' does not mean a rate cut is imminent in the central bank's next policy announcement. Notably, RBI MPC is set to meet between December 4 and 6, 2024, to decide if the prevailing repo rate of 6.5%, which has stayed unchanged for the last 2 years, should be brought down or not. In its last meeting, The <keyword id="20501100" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="RBI-monetary-policy" source="keywords">RBI monetary policy</keyword> committee had shifted its stance to 'neutral' indicating that it is open to adjusting interest rates based on economic conditions. "It should not be assumed that we have done this, so therefore the next step is a rate cut. A change in stance doesn't mean that the next step is a rate cut in the very next meeting. It's not so," Das said. Das also cautioned that inflation remains a key factor, and inflation and CPI prints for October are expected to stay high.

SBI economists see Q2 GDP growth slowing down to 6.5%; FY25 growth to be closer to 7%

Indian companies across multiple sectors have reported disappointing results in the second quarter of fiscal year 2025, notes a new JM Financials report. Consequently, their poor performance has triggered stock price corrections for affected companies. The brunt of this weaker than expected earnings was largely borne by consumer centric sectors like FMCG (fast moving consumer goods), retail, and auto, which slacked largely due to dampened urban demand. For instance, India's largest automaker, Maruti Suzuki, reported a 5% YoY decline in its total domestic passenger vehicle wholesales, largely on the back of pent-up inventory. Similarly, Honda reported a staggering 23% YoY dip in its total sales during October 2024. A recent report by Bernstein noted that around 48% of the companies listed on the NSE100 index missed their earnings estimate for Q2FY25, the highest since March 2020. Most companies have mentioned deteriorated domestic demand, urban slowing, macroeconomic risk, and margin pressures as the main reasons behind the dip. "The quarter's earnings have made investors nervous," noted the JM Financials report. The challenging environment stems from multiple factors: softening consumer demand, rising input costs, and companies' limited ability to increase prices. Moreover, this is not limited to just one quarter. Companies have been reporting weak, single-digit earnings growth for the last six consecutive quarters. Data from India Data Hub also suggests that corporate profits of listed companies plunged by as much as 3.4% during the quarter ended September 30, 2024. This is in stark contrast to the year-ago period, where they had shot up by over 40% The oil and gas sector had a difficult quarter, with refiners hit by weak margins and city gas distributors struggling with higher input costs. Financial institutions showed mixed results. While government-owned banks reported strong numbers, microfinance institutions and some private lenders faced massive difficulties with their unsecured loans. Most notable amongst this was the case of IndusInd Bank, which saw its net profits dip by 40% amidst burgeoning provisions, which climbed 87% to Rs 1,820 crore in Q2, as against Rs 974 crore reported in the year-ago period. <h2>Markets head southwards</h2>The selling trend by FPIs has dragged down the major Indian indices, the Nifty 50 and Sensex, both of which have dropped by around 8% since the beginning of this selling spree in October. According to National Securities Depository Ltd. (NSDL) data, FPIs offloaded equities worth a significant Rs 19,994 crore in just the first five trading sessions of November last week. The impact is clearly visible on Indian stock markets. Data suggests that while every sector in October closed the month in red, auto, oil and gas, and consumer durables were the most badly hit, each declining by as much as 10% during the month. Another indicator underlining the inherent weakness of the market was that the month saw only 242 stocks hit their 52-week high, significantly below the usual monthly average of 310.

India Inc. stares at an earnings dearth in Q2, FMCG, auto, and consumer durables falter

India's largest airline with a market share of 62.5% and Asia's biggest carrier by market valuation, <keyword id="19899182" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="IndiGo" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="IndiGo" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="IndiGo">Indigo</keyword>, posted a net loss of Rs 986.7 crore for the last quarter ended September 30, 2024. Indigo's profits during this quarter in 2023 were Rs 188.9 crore. The main reason behind the carrier running into reds during the second quarter of FY25 was high <keyword id="21353061" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="fuel-costs" source="keywords">fuel costs</keyword>. Per the airline, its fuel costs jumped by 12.8% to Rs 6,605.2 crore, compared to Rs 5,856 crore in the year-ago period. Another expense area that witnessed an exponential surge was aircraft and engine rentals, which rose to Rs 763.6 crore in the second quarter. This stood at Rs 195.6 crore in the year-ago period. All in all, the company's total expenses burgeoned 22% to Rs 18,666.1 crore during the previous quarter. Indigo's <keyword id="20066400" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="revenue-from-operations" source="keywords">revenue from operations</keyword>, while down by 13.3% on a QoQ basis, from Rs 19,571 crore in June 2024 to Rs 16,970 crore as of September 2023, jumped 13.6% on a YoY basis. The company's revenue from operations during the September quarter in 2023 stood at Rs 14,944 crore. Indigo’s consolidated top line also jumped 14% YoY to Rs 16,970 crore, which included Rs 14,359 crore of <keyword id="23687772" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="ticketing-revenue" source="keywords">ticketing revenue</keyword> and Rs 1,875 crore earned from ancillary services. At the end of September 2024, Indigo had a fleet of 410 planes. For the last quarter, Indigo was plagued by mass groundings of its aircraft due to faulty engines manufactured by <keyword id="21405019" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Pratt-and-Whitney" source="keywords">Pratt and Whitney</keyword> Group. This had forced the airline to ground around 75 planes, or about 1/5th of its fleet. However, in the earnings call today, the management noted that the worst was behind them. Indigo expects the number of non-operational planes to drop below 60 by the end of this year and further dip to 40 by March 2025. Already, the number of grounded aircraft had come down to the high 60s. IndiGo’s cost per available seat kilometer (<keyword id="23687771" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="CASK" source="keywords">CASK</keyword>)—a useful metric to assess an airline's operational efficiency—also inched up 12% YoY to stand at Rs 4.69. The company expects this figure to inch up to double digits by the next quarter. Indigo's stock was down by 3.23% during the day, closing the week at Rs 4,373.70.

IndiGo's bottom-line turns red for Q2, high fuel costs, and forced groundings main reason

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SBI economists see Q2 GDP growth slowing down to 6.5%; FY25 growth to be closer to 7%

BI India Bureau

India Inc. stares at an earnings dearth in Q2, FMCG, auto, and consumer durables falter

Ira Alok Puranik

IndiGo's bottom-line turns red for Q2, high fuel costs, and forced groundings main reason

BI India Bureau

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