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New Delhi [India], June 4 (ANI): The mammoth exercise to count votes polled for the Lok Sabha seats in the 2024 elections will begin at 8 am on Tuesday, with trends and results following shortly thereafter. Results of the <keyword id="6372146" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Assembly-elections" source="Orion">Assembly elections</keyword> in Sikkim, Arunachal Pradesh, Odisha and Andhra Pradesh were held simultaneously with voting for the 543-member Lok Sabha. Results of 175 Assembly constituencies in Andhra Pradesh and 147 Assembly constituencies in Odisha and results of bypolls in 25 Assembly constituencies will also be declared today. Here're the LIVE results: <div type="javascript" title="Custom" contenttype="Infographic"><cdata><![CDATA[]]></cdata></div> Strict security has been put in place for the smooth conduct of counting of votes for over 8,000 candidates in this general elections. Prime Minister Narendra Modi's Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) will seek a third consecutive term in government, while the Congress-led opposition aims to unseat them. Most <keyword id="43771" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="exit-polls" source="Orion">exit polls</keyword> have predicted a return of PM Modi to power, a development which will make him the first Prime Minister since Jawaharlal Nehru to secure a third successive term in power, Meanwhile, a delegation of Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance (INDIA) bloc leaders met with the Election Commission of India urging it to ensure that postal ballots are counted and their results declared before the outcome of the EVMs is announced. Earlier, Chief Election Commissioner Rajiv Kumar had said that a "very robust system" has been put in place. "There are around 10.5 lakh booths. Each booth will have 14 tables. There are observers and micro-observers. Nearly, 70-80 lakh people are involved in the process," he said. The national capital is all set to witness the battle. With tight security arrangements in place, Delhi is well-prepared to watch the results of the 2024 <keyword id="19923279" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Lok-Sabha-Elections" source="keywords">Lok Sabha elections</keyword>. Around 70 companies of the security forces will be deployed at all seven counting centres across the national capital as part of the elaborate security arrangements made by the Delhi Police for today. Delhi traffic police issued a fresh advisory ahead of the counting of votes scheduled for Tuesday, listing key roads where traffic restrictions and diversions will start from 5 am onwards to ensure smooth vehicular movement. Prime Minister Modi's hometown, Gujarat, is also preparing for the vote-counting day as security forces rehearse and perform drills for the effortless conduct of D-day. Exit polls have predicted the return of the BJP to power. Various exit polls have given the BJP more than 64 seats in Uttar Pradesh. The BJP-led National Democratic Alliance is poised for a hat-trick win in Lok Sabha polls with a massive majority. Exit polls were predicted on Saturday and indicated that the ruling party at the Centre would improve its performance in several states ruled by other parties. A few exit polls predicted that the BJP-led NDA could reach the goal of "400 paar" stated by BJP leaders in the run-up to the Lok Sabha polls. The exit polls predicted that the ruling BJP-led NDA is poised to improve its performance over its 2019 record when it won 352 seats. Two polls predicted the BJP would also improve its numbers from the 303 seats it won in the 2019 Lok Sabha polls. In the 2019 elections, NDA wrested 353 seats, of which the BJP won 303 alone. The Opposition's UPA got only 93 seats of which the Congress got 52. The Lok Sabha elections were conducted in seven phases- on April 19, April 26, May 7, May 13, May 20, May 25 and June 1. The counting trends and results, as per data entered by RO/ARO for AC/PC will be available on the ECI website as well as on the Voter Helpline App, both iOS and Android Mobile Apps, according to the ECI. The Voter Helpline App can be downloaded from the Google Play Store or Apple Play Store. Users can use the available filter to find out the winning/leading or trailing candidate details, along with the constituency-wise or State-wise results from the Voter Helpline App. The local display of the trends and results by the CEOs/ROs/DEOs may also be done through the Digital Display Panels, it said.

Lok Sabha elections 2024 results: Mammoth vote-counting exercise set to begin at 8 am, amid high security

With latest trends showing the BJP falling below the majority mark, the Congress on Tuesday said it has become clear that it will be a staggering political and decisively <keyword id="21932463" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="moral-defeat" source="keywords">moral defeat</keyword> for <keyword id="19895781" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="Narendra-Modi" source="keywords">Narendra Modi</keyword>. Counting of votes are underway for the <keyword id="19923279" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Lok-Sabha-elections" source="keywords">Lok Sabha elections</keyword>, with BJP emerging as the single largest party but not getting a majority. <keyword id="21129157" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="exit-polls" source="keywords">Exit polls</keyword> on Saturday predicted that Prime Minister Modi will retain power for a third straight term, with the BJP-led NDA expected to win a big majority in the Lok Sabha polls. Congress general secretary <keyword id="20035989" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Jairam-Ramesh" source="keywords">Jairam Ramesh</keyword> in a post on X said the exit polls have been completely exposed for what they were -- "a <keyword id="21932465" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="total-sham" source="Orion">total sham</keyword>." "Trends for all 543 seats are now available. The following have become clear: It will be a staggering political and decisively moral defeat for Mr. Narendra Modi," Ramesh said. He said it has also become clear that "the exit polls that he orchestrated have been completely exposed for what they were--a total sham." Early trends from counting of votes on Tuesday threw up disappointing results for the BJP-led NDA in the Lok Sabha elections, which appears to be losing heavily in its strongholds of Uttar Pradesh, Haryana and Rajasthan although it is expected to form the government with about 290 seats. On its own, the BJP appeared to be falling below the majority mark with leads in 240 seats despite significant gains in Odisha, Telangana and Kerala, giving some solace to the party after the unexpected losses in the Hindi belt.

Election trends show moral defeat for Narendra Modi, expose exit polls as a "total sham": Congress general secretary

The votes are in, the election commission is armed, and tallies are finally being made. As lakhs of viewers tune into their news to update themselves, many are coming away shocked at the current standings. Despite confident promises of capturing 400 of the 543 Indian seats, the Bharatiya Janata Party (<keyword id="19894848" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="BJP" source="keywords">BJP</keyword>) has barely won a dozen or two seats more than the halfway mark of 272, as per the initial few rounds of counting. This is still an impressive position to be in, and certainly enough to help the BJP-led <keyword id="105903" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="national-democratic-alliance" source="Orion">National Democratic Alliance</keyword> (<keyword id="19938590" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="NDA" source="keywords">NDA</keyword>) make another term. However, the overwhelming, yet lukewarm, support has inadvertently deflated the ‘Abki baar 400 paar’ chant echoed by the party throughout its campaigning. Further, this comes mere days after Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath called the slogan the ‘common man’s mantra’. <cmsannotation type="cmsannotation" annotationid="Exit polls gone wrong" comment="subhead" text="Exit polls gone wrong"><keyword id="21129157" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="exit-polls" source="keywords">Exit polls</keyword> gone wrong</cmsannotation> Party conjecture aside, most exit polls had also predicted a landslide victory for the NDA, with some even predicting the party crossing the 400 marks, helping the alliance comfortably bring in a third term for current Prime Minister <keyword id="19895781" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="narendra-modi" source="keywords">Narendra Modi</keyword>. However, Congress leaders staunchly dismissed these findings, asserting that the <keyword id="3658" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="india" source="Orion">INDIA</keyword> alliance will achieve at least over 250 seats this election. While exit polls have exercised a notoriously patchy reputation for delivering inaccurate findings in the past, the surveys might have gotten it wrong far more than usual this time around. For instance, the BJP has been predicted to win 400 seats by News 24-Today’s Chanakya poll, 358 as per Times Now-ETG, 392 per India V-CNX. <table class="redcator-table-advance" style="border-width: initial; border-style: none; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.6em; box-shadow: none; width: 955.049px; font-family: Merriweather; padding-bottom: 10px !important; background-image: inherit !important; background-position: inherit !important; background-size: inherit !important; background-repeat: inherit !important; background-attachment: inherit !important; background-origin: inherit !important; background-clip: inherit !important;"><tbody><tr><td style="padding: 5px; border-width: 1px; border-style: solid; border-color: rgb(221, 221, 221); font-size: 16px; vertical-align: top;"> </td><td style="padding: 5px; border-width: 1px; border-style: solid; border-color: rgb(221, 221, 221); font-size: 16px; vertical-align: top;">NDA</td><td style="padding: 5px; border-width: 1px; border-style: solid; border-color: rgb(221, 221, 221); font-size: 16px; vertical-align: top;">INDIA</td><td style="padding: 5px; border-width: 1px; border-style: solid; border-color: rgb(221, 221, 221); font-size: 16px; vertical-align: top;">Others</td></tr><tr><td style="padding: 5px; border-width: 1px; border-style: solid; border-color: rgb(221, 221, 221); font-size: 16px; vertical-align: top;">Times Now - ETG </td><td style="padding: 5px; border-width: 1px; border-style: solid; border-color: rgb(221, 221, 221); font-size: 16px; vertical-align: top;">358</td><td style="padding: 5px; border-width: 1px; border-style: solid; border-color: rgb(221, 221, 221); font-size: 16px; vertical-align: top;">152</td><td style="padding: 5px; border-width: 1px; border-style: solid; border-color: rgb(221, 221, 221); font-size: 16px; vertical-align: top;">33</td></tr><tr><td style="padding: 5px; border-width: 1px; border-style: solid; border-color: rgb(221, 221, 221); font-size: 16px; vertical-align: top;">Matrize - Republic</td><td style="padding: 5px; border-width: 1px; border-style: solid; border-color: rgb(221, 221, 221); font-size: 16px; vertical-align: top;">361</td><td style="padding: 5px; border-width: 1px; border-style: solid; border-color: rgb(221, 221, 221); font-size: 16px; vertical-align: top;">126</td><td style="padding: 5px; border-width: 1px; border-style: solid; border-color: rgb(221, 221, 221); font-size: 16px; vertical-align: top;">56</td></tr><tr><td style="padding: 5px; border-width: 1px; border-style: solid; border-color: rgb(221, 221, 221); font-size: 16px; vertical-align: top;">Jan Ki Baat - NDTV </td><td style="padding: 5px; border-width: 1px; border-style: solid; border-color: rgb(221, 221, 221); font-size: 16px; vertical-align: top;">377</td><td style="padding: 5px; border-width: 1px; border-style: solid; border-color: rgb(221, 221, 221); font-size: 16px; vertical-align: top;">151</td><td style="padding: 5px; border-width: 1px; border-style: solid; border-color: rgb(221, 221, 221); font-size: 16px; vertical-align: top;">15</td></tr><tr><td style="padding: 5px; border-width: 1px; border-style: solid; border-color: rgb(221, 221, 221); font-size: 16px; vertical-align: top;">PMARQ - Republic</td><td style="padding: 5px; border-width: 1px; border-style: solid; border-color: rgb(221, 221, 221); font-size: 16px; vertical-align: top;">359</td><td style="padding: 5px; border-width: 1px; border-style: solid; border-color: rgb(221, 221, 221); font-size: 16px; vertical-align: top;">154</td><td style="padding: 5px; border-width: 1px; border-style: solid; border-color: rgb(221, 221, 221); font-size: 16px; vertical-align: top;">30</td></tr><tr><td style="padding: 5px; border-width: 1px; border-style: solid; border-color: rgb(221, 221, 221); font-size: 16px; vertical-align: top;">India News - D-Dynamics</td><td style="padding: 5px; border-width: 1px; border-style: solid; border-color: rgb(221, 221, 221); font-size: 16px; vertical-align: top;">371</td><td style="padding: 5px; border-width: 1px; border-style: solid; border-color: rgb(221, 221, 221); font-size: 16px; vertical-align: top;">125</td><td style="padding: 5px; border-width: 1px; border-style: solid; border-color: rgb(221, 221, 221); font-size: 16px; vertical-align: top;">47</td></tr><tr><td style="padding: 5px; border-width: 1px; border-style: solid; border-color: rgb(221, 221, 221); font-size: 16px; vertical-align: top;">Today's Chanakya - News24</td><td style="padding: 5px; border-width: 1px; border-style: solid; border-color: rgb(221, 221, 221); font-size: 16px; vertical-align: top;">400</td><td style="padding: 5px; border-width: 1px; border-style: solid; border-color: rgb(221, 221, 221); font-size: 16px; vertical-align: top;">107</td><td style="padding: 5px; border-width: 1px; border-style: solid; border-color: rgb(221, 221, 221); font-size: 16px; vertical-align: top;">36</td></tr><tr><td style="padding: 5px; border-width: 1px; border-style: solid; border-color: rgb(221, 221, 221); font-size: 16px; vertical-align: top;">India TV</td><td style="padding: 5px; border-width: 1px; border-style: solid; border-color: rgb(221, 221, 221); font-size: 16px; vertical-align: top;">386</td><td style="padding: 5px; border-width: 1px; border-style: solid; border-color: rgb(221, 221, 221); font-size: 16px; vertical-align: top;">124</td><td style="padding: 5px; border-width: 1px; border-style: solid; border-color: rgb(221, 221, 221); font-size: 16px; vertical-align: top;">33</td></tr><tr><td style="padding: 5px; border-width: 1px; border-style: solid; border-color: rgb(221, 221, 221); font-size: 16px; vertical-align: top;">Poll of polls</td><td style="padding: 5px; border-width: 1px; border-style: solid; border-color: rgb(221, 221, 221); font-size: 16px; vertical-align: top;">369</td><td style="padding: 5px; border-width: 1px; border-style: solid; border-color: rgb(221, 221, 221); font-size: 16px; vertical-align: top;">143</td><td style="padding: 5px; border-width: 1px; border-style: solid; border-color: rgb(221, 221, 221); font-size: 16px; vertical-align: top;">31</td></tr></tbody><tbody></tbody><tbody></tbody><tbody></tbody><tbody></tbody><tbody></tbody><tbody></tbody><tbody></tbody><tbody></tbody></table> However, the Modi-led alliance has yet to cross the 300 mark. If this trend holds, a majority government will form with BJP-led NDA acquiring slightly below 300 seats, almost mirroring exact forecasts by on-ground reporters and some political experts. However, this is quite in contrast with almost all exit polls this election season. If the scorecard settles at the current mark, this will end up becoming the poorest performance for NDA since their historic win in 2014. The alliance came to power after winning an overwhelming 336 seats in 2014, and 353 seats in 2019. However, the main point of shock has come from the performance of Congress and the INDIA bloc, who have maintained a steadfast 200+ seats since the initial polling rounds. Out of the nine odd exit polls that came out with results recently, none had predicted the INDIA bloc to win over 150-170 seats. As the tallying moves into its final phases, let’s look at how exit polls performed in the previous election cycles. <cmsannotation type="cmsannotation" annotationid="2014 elections" comment="subhead" text="2014 elections">2014 elections</cmsannotation> In 2014, 834 million voters participated in the largest-ever elections worldwide — only to be surpassed by the 2019 <keyword id="19895394" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="lok-sabha" source="keywords">Lok Sabha</keyword> elections. An average of eight exit polls had indicated that the BJP would see a 283-seat victory, while the opposition would have had to settle for 105 seats. Just as predicted, the BJP saw a landslide victory and swooped in 282 of the 543 seats, with a vote percentage of 31.3%. This win was a huge blow to the INC, which only won 44 seats compared to the 206 in 2009. Since a party must win at least 55 seats to become an official opposition party in India, the Congress’s defeat meant that there was no official opposition party for India. <cmsannotation type="cmsannotation" annotationid="2019 elections" comment="subhead" text="2019 elections">2019 elections</cmsannotation> The previous Lok Sabha elections turned out to be an even bigger win for the BJP! In 2019, exit polls had predicted that the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance would peak at 306 and that the INC-led United Progressive Alliance (UPA) would win just 120. However, the post-poll statistics turned out to be underwhelming. The BJP won a whopping 37.36% of the vote — the highest by a political party since the 1989 general elections. It won 303 seats, while the NDA collectively won 352 seats. It was another crushing defeat for the Congress, which won just 52 seats, failing to claim the post of Leader of the Opposition once again.

Trends indicate INDIA maintaining 200+ seats, defying all exit poll predictions; how accurate have these surveys been since 2014?

<ul class="summary-list"><li>This post originally appeared in the Insider Today newsletter.</li></ul>Welcome back to our Sunday edition, a roundup of some of our top stories. Studying computer science was supposed to be the ticket to job security. Not anymore, according to a professor at <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/tech-degrees-job-berkeley-professor-ai-ubi-2024-10">UC Berkeley</a>.On the agenda today:<ul><li>Consulting firms are facing a reckoning as <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/consulting-firms-mckinsey-bcg-accenture-workers-leaving-2024-9">workers head for the exits</a>.</li><li>4:30 a.m. wakeups are part of <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/apollo-ceo-marc-rowan-management-tactics-430-am-wakeup-call-2024-10">Apollo's new management strategy</a>.</li><li>Retirees are selling their businesses. It's a $10 trillion <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/boomers-selling-small-businesses-investment-opportunity-millennials-gen-z-retirement-2024-10">opportunity for millennials</a>.</li><li>Introducing our list of <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/top-wall-street-executives-rising-stars-investing-trading-2024">Wall Street's rising stars</a>.</li></ul>But first: Making sense of a huge month for hiring.If this was forwarded to you, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/subscription/newsletter/insider-today-sunday-edition">sign up here</a>. Download Insider's app <a target="_blank" href="https://www.insider.com/app">here.</a><h3 id="58506b3b-b008-4ead-9e90-71439c9e98dd">This week's dispatch</h3><h2 id="2a7b4701-4b9e-48dd-b7c6-5bd656268197">Hot jobs report</h2><div type="image" title="A line of people waiting for an interview" height="1500" width="2000" msid="113986358" hostid="261" sizebytes="312640"></div>The US economy added way more jobs in September than expected.The <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/september-jobs-report-unemployment-rate-nonfarm-payroll-growth-federal-reserve-2024-10">jobs report</a> on Friday showed 254,000 jobs added, way ahead of the 147,000 expected, while unemployment dropped to 4.1%. Jobs growth in July and August was also revised upwards."Any way you slice it, September's employment report was much stronger than expectations," said one investor in response to the report.Here's what it all means:Rates: The strong job numbers likely mean a longer wait for lower rates. Investors responded by immediately lowering their expectations for another <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/september-jobs-report-fed-rate-cut-outlook-november-labor-market-2024-10">jumbo rate cut</a> from the Fed in November. Many now predict the Fed will wait until December to cut rates.Stocks: A low-inflation, low-unemployment environment is the ideal scenario for stocks. The Dow closed at another <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-today-strong-jobs-report-soothes-fears-economic-slowdown-2024-10">record high</a> on Friday, and some see a "<a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/economy-hitting-roaring-20s-stride-fed-rate-cuts-gdp-growth-2024-9">Roaring '20s economy</a>" emerging.Election: The strong hiring numbers represent a boost for <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/blockbuster-jobs-report-kamala-harris-election-trump-inflation-economy-2024-10">Kamala Harris' presidential campaign</a>. Former President Donald Trump has repeatedly attacked President Joe Biden and VP Harris over their handling of the economy, but polls suggest the Harris campaign may be winning over more <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/kamala-harris-economy-inflation-polling-donald-trump-joe-biden-2024-8">Americans on her handling of the economy</a>.Vibes: Don't bet on these numbers changing the mood much. Yes, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/inflation-august-consumer-price-index-federal-reserve-rate-cuts-2024-9">inflation</a> looks to be under control, but prices in the grocery aisle are much higher than they were four years ago. 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But young workers are starting to reconsider amid a tough stretch for the industry.Layoffs and delayed start dates at firms like Deloitte and Accenture have pushed some consultants — including those who've been at it a while — to reconsider a gig once synonymous with generous expense accounts and stability.<a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/consulting-firms-mckinsey-bcg-accenture-workers-leaving-2024-9">How consulting lost its cool</a>.<div type="image" title="Marc Rowan between other speakers on a panel." height="2464" width="3500" msid="113986360" hostid="261" sizebytes="290056"></div><h2 id="8d221ec2-a40e-4d73-80e7-638d6c30f428">Playing to win</h2>Apollo Management aims to double its assets in five years, but getting there won't be easy."We have woken the team up at 4:30 a.m. in the morning for meetings to prove to them that we need to do a wake-up call and something different," Apollo Management CEO Marc Rowan told investors. These tactics are part of a new strategy to teach employees to "play to win" amid changing market conditions, Rowan said."<a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/apollo-ceo-marc-rowan-management-tactics-430-am-wakeup-call-2024-10">We have to adapt, and we have to change</a>."<div type="image" title="Stock graph with younger woman and older woman on opposite ends of the upward arrow" height="1500" width="2000" msid="113986367" hostid="261" sizebytes="476442"></div><h2 id="69bad2e5-a5bf-4ba9-b958-e3eff00ffc5b">The great boomer fire sale</h2>Scrappy, entrepreneurial millennials have a new path to retirement: Scooping up boomers' businesses.As they enter their prime wealth-building years, many millennials are anxious about how they'll save for retirement. Retiring boomers looking to sell off their companies present millennials with a $10 trillion opportunity.<a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/boomers-selling-small-businesses-investment-opportunity-millennials-gen-z-retirement-2024-10">How millennials are cashing in on boomer wealth</a>.<div type="image" title="Photo collage of popular luxury items for Wall Streeters" height="1500" width="2000" msid="113986364" hostid="261" sizebytes="262060"></div><h2 id="dc96d953-8312-4bf5-8432-dfb9ba5779e5">Wall Street's finest</h2>Every year, Business Insider taps its contacts to put together a list of who to watch on Wall Street. The nominees, each 35 or younger, are shaping the future of finance.This year's list includes 25 rising stars from firms like JPMorgan, Bridgewater, and Apollo. We asked each of them to share their successes, challenges, and best career advice.<a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/top-wall-street-executives-rising-stars-investing-trading-2024">See who made the cut</a>.This week's quote:"Removing layers, operating with fewer managers and flattening the organization are all in focus to move faster."— A Morgan Stanley note estimating <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/amazon-could-cut-managers-save-3-billion-analysts-2024-10">Amazon could save $3 billion by laying off 14,000 managers</a>.More of this week's top reads:<ul><li>Microsoft won't follow an Amazon-style RTO policy — <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/microsoft-wont-follow-amazon-rto-unless-productivity-drops-exec-2024-9">unless productivity slows</a>.</li><li>Nvidia's next target: <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/jensen-huang-nvidia-robots-huamanoid-self-driving-cars-2024-9">the burgeoning robotics market</a>.</li><li>Leaked document shows Amazon rolled out <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/amazon-cedric-safer-ai-chatbot-employees-2024-9">a ChatGPT replacement for employees</a>.</li><li>Google's ad business could be <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/google-adtech-should-be-spun-off-b-corp-arete-analysts-2024-9">saved by a $150 billion spinoff</a>.</li><li>Credit card companies are <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/high-credit-card-interest-rates-americans-debt-bills-fees-spending-2024-10">ripping you off like never before</a>.</li><li>The investors behind <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/openai-investors-latest-funding-round-2024-10">OpenAI's historic $6.6 billion funding round</a>.</li><li>Google Search is about to see <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/google-search-lens-ai-gemini-overviews-new-features-2024-10">'a pretty dramatic shift.'</a></li><li>OpenAI's rivals are on the prowl after an <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/openai-rivals-anthropic-perplexity-on-prowl-after-wave-exec-departures-2024-10">exodus of high-level executives</a>.The Insider Today team: <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/author/dan-defrancesco">Dan DeFrancesco</a>, deputy editor and anchor, in New York. <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/author/jordan-parker-erb">Jordan Parker Erb</a>, editor, in New York. Grace Lett, editor, in Chicago. <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/author/amanda-yen">Amanda Yen</a>, fellow, in New York.</li></ul>

Insider Today: Consultants hit the exits

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Prediction markets can be more accurate than polling when it comes to elections, a professor told Business Insider.</li><li>There's over $606 million wagered on the 2024 election on Polymarket, favoring a Harris win.</li></ul>When trying to figure out the outcome of an election, most look at polling, expert takes, or <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-presidential-election-prediction-winner-donald-trump-kamala-harris-2024-8">even the stock market</a>. However, prediction markets, which allow bettors to wager on the outcome of events, may be the most accurate way of calling the result ahead of November 5. They've successfully forecast the last few presidential cycles and even predicted President Joe Biden would drop out weeks in advance.While they're not without their misses — they were notably wrong during the 2022 midterm elections, and after Biden won the 2020 election — Rutgers University statistics professor Harry Crane says prediction markets are historically more accurate than traditional polling. In the past month, a series of election-related events—an attempted assassination against Trump, President Joe Biden stepping down and endorsing Kamala Harris, and both candidates picking their running mates—have adjusted polling considerably.Yet Crane says these adjustments are often reflected in prediction markets more quickly.Polymarket, a crypto-based betting market, predicted a 70% chance President Joe Biden would drop out of the race this year as far back as July 4, two weeks before he actually bowed out."It's an event-driven market. So the past month has been very active because events have occurred that are of extreme significance," Crane said.And the markets will likely get even quicker at factoring in new information on election night in November.As vote totals, exit polls, and absentee ballots come in, prediction markets "move pretty significantly and pretty quickly in response to that information," he said.<h2 id="7dc81ce7-8b15-46b0-8923-323c06d08f5d">The user base is (literally) invested in the outcome</h2>There's a range of participants in betting markets, and most are making highly informed wagers, Crane said.There are recreational bettors who may just have an interest in whatever topic is up for debate, as well as professional bettors and betting syndicates whose livelihoods are at stake. There are also companies looking to hedge risk if they may be affected by candidates' proposed policies. With <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://polymarket.com/event/presidential-election-winner-2024?tid=1723813625985">$606.5 million</a> riding on the election outcome on Polymarket alone, participants watch the news closely, Crane said. Even if they aren't based in the US, they are just as clued into election updates since their money is on the line.He likens it to sports betting: "I don't need to be a professional football player to know how to understand what's going to happen in a football game. And in fact, I could be better at it than players in the game from a betting or informational perspective," he said.<h2 id="fb2c38a6-7896-42bc-9923-760bf527f3ee">Higher participation could boost accuracy</h2>Crane says that prediction markets could become even more accurate— and avoid any potential risk of manipulation by political groups —if they are fully legalized in the US.The most popular prediction markets are largely unavailable to US participants. US-based users can't bet on Polymarket, and Betfair, one of the longest-running events markets, is only available in some US states.PredictIt, a project founded by researchers in New Zealand, has operated in the US under a no-action letter from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission since 2014, but limits American bettors to up to $850 in wagers, and only 5,000 betters can participate in each market.PredictIt is facing headwinds from the CFTC, which is looking to outlaw all election betting. If passed, Americans wouldn't be legally allowed to participate in any prediction markets, though some may try using VPNs to bypass regulations, which likely occurs now.Crane also said more participation would make manipulation less likely.While there's no hard evidence, he guesses that political bets may be especially prone to attempts at manipulation or influence. "Everything kind of feeds off of everything else, and by trying to limit one aspect of it, or trying to police one aspect of it, it can often ruin the entire market function," Crane said."I think that no limitations is actually the way to go if we want to have better, cleaner, more accurate markets."

Why prediction markets can be more accurate than polls at predicting election results

Exit polls on Thursday gave varied predictions in the poll-bound states, giving advantage to BJP in Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan, a clear edge to Congress in Chhattisgarh and Telangana and that the ruling MNF was ahead in power sweepstakes in Mizoram. While the <keyword id="609507" type="General" weightage="70" keywordseo="exit-poll" source="Orion">exit poll</keyword>s were almost unanimous in giving an edge to Congress in Telangana, where polling concluded on Thursday, a few predicted a close call in Rajasthan with Congress too in the lead and an exit poll gave a little edge to the party in Madhya Pradesh too. A poll predicted that Zoram People's Movement will win decisively in Mizoram. The outcome of exit polls was released after the conclusion of polls in Telangana. If Congress is able to retain Rajasthan along with Chhattisgarh and oust the ruling BRS from Telangana, it will be a major morale-booster for the party. Five states went to the polls this month with counting slated for December 3. The polling in five states that are in northern, eastern and southern parts of the country, came months before the next Lok Sabha polls. Exit polls predicted that Congress is poised to form government in Telangana and that the ruling Bharat Rashtra Samithi (BRS) would fall short of the majority after its 10-year rule in India's youngest state. The polling for the 119-member Telangana assembly was held on Thursday. The Times Now-ETG exit poll gave 38 per cent vote share to BRS, 43 per cent to Congress and 13 per cent to others in Telangana. It said the ruling party in the state is poised to win 37-45 seats, Congress 60-70 seats, BJP 6-8 and others 5-7 seats. Republic TV exit poll gave Congress 58-69 seats and the BRS 46-56 seats. It said BJP could win 4 to 9 seats and others 5 to 8 seats. The poll predicted a 41.60 per cent vote share for BRS, 43.30 per cent for Congress, 10.80 per cent for BJP and 4.30 for others. The India TV-CNX exit poll predicted 63-79 seats for the Congress, 31-47 for the BRS, 0-2 for the BJP and 5-7 for others. According to Jan ki Baat poll, Congress is poised to win 48 to 64 seats in Telangana. It said BRS could win 40 to 55 seats and BJP 7 to 13 seats. Telangana recorded a voter turnout of 70.28 per cent. The exit polls said that two regional players in Mizoram - MNF and ZPM - are in the race to form government in Mizoram with most predictions stating that the ruling party led by Chief Minister Zoramthanga has an advantage in the northeastern state while there is also a possibility of a hung assembly. Mizoram went to the polls on November 7 for its 40-member assembly. The ruling Mizo National Front (MNF) faced a challenge from the Zoram People's Movement (ZPM), Congress and BJP. According to India Today-Axis My India poll predictions for Mizoram, the Zoram People's Movement is poised for a massive victory in Mizoram and could win 28-35 seats. It said the ruling MNF is expected to win 3 to 7 seats. MNF, the poll said, will get 27 per cent votes and ZPM 49 per cent votes. Congress is poised to get 20 per cent votes, the exit poll said. Times Now-ETG poll gave 14-18 seats to MNF with 32.20 per cent vote share, 10-14 to ZPM with 29.30 per cent votes and said that Congress is expected to get 9-13 seats with 27.80 per cent vote share. Jan Ki Baat poll gave 10-14 seats to MNF with a vote share of 22 per cent, 15-25 seats to ZPM with a vote share of 40 per cent and predicted that Congress will get 30 per cent votes and 5-9 seats. India TV-CNX poll predicted 14-18 seats for MNF and 12-16 seats for ZPM. It said Congress is expected to get 7-10 seats.' Republic TV gave a 32.60 per cent vote share to the MNF, 14.60 per cent to ZPM and 31.20 per cent to Congress. It gave 17-22 seats to MNF, 7-12 to ZPM, Congress to get 7-10 seats and one seat to BJP. P-Marq poll said that MNF will win 14-20 seats, ZPM 9-15 seats, Congress 7-13 seats and others 0-2 seats. In Madhya Pradesh, most exit polls said that BJP has a clear advantage as they predicted Congress falling short in its poll effort in the state where it was expecting to gain from "anti-incumbency" against the government. Most exit polls predicted that the BJP, which has ruled the state for almost 18 of the past 20 years, is set for another term in office with a huge majority. An exit poll gave advantage to the Congress and another predicted that the two parties were on an equal footing. Madhya Pradesh went to the polls on November 17 for its 230 seats and the counting of votes along with that in four other states will take place on December 3. According to India Today-Axis My India prediction, the BJP will retain power in Madhya Pradesh by bagging 47 per cent vote share and 140-162 seats. It said Congress is likely to get 60-90 seats with a 41 per cent vote share. Others are expected to get 12 per cent votes and 0-3 seats. According to the India TV-CNX poll, BJP is poised to get 48 per cent votes, Congress 38 per cent and others 16 per cent. The poll predicted 140-159 seats for BJP, 70-89 seats for Congress and 0-2 for others. The Times Now-ETG gave 43.83 per cent vote share to BJP, 42.23 per cent to Congress and 13.94 per cent to others. It said the ruling party in the state is poised to win 105-117 seats, Congress 109-125 seats and others 1-5 seats. Republic TV gave a 43.4 per cent vote share to the BJP, 41.7 per cent to Congress and 14.9 per cent to others. It gave 118-130 seats to BJP, 97-107 to Congress and 0-2 polls for others. The poll done by Today's Chanakya predicted Congress getting 74-86 seats in Madhya Pradesh with 38 per cent vote share and BJP getting 151-163 seats with 45 per cent vote share. It said others are likely to have 17 per cent vote share and 5-9 seats. In Rajsathan, exit polls reinforced the perception of a hard contest with differences in their prediction of the winner in the crucial Hindi heartland state that has a nearly three-decade tradition of not repeating an incumbent government. The exit poll predictions showed that "others" including smaller parties and independents could play a crucial role in the formation of the government when the results are announced on December 3. Rajasthan went to the polls on 199 of 200 assembly seats on November 25. The Congress government in the state led by Chief Minister Ashok Gehlot unleashed a series of populist schemes closer to the assembly election to ward off the challenge from the BJP. According to India Today-Axis My India poll, Congress is poised to get 86-106 seats in Rajasthan with 42 per cent votes and BJP 80-100 seats with 41 per cent vote support. Others are poised to seven per cent votes and 9-18 seats. India TV-CNX poll predicted 94-104 seats for Congress with 43 per cent votes and 80-90 seats for BJP with 42 per cent vote share. It said 'others' are expected to get 15 per cent votes and 14-18 seats. Times Now-ETG poll gave 56-72 seats to Congress with 38.98 per cent vote share, 108-128 to BJP with 41.88 per cent votes and others expected to get 13-21 seats with a sizeable 19.14 per cent vote share.' The Jan Ki Baat poll gave 100-122 seats to BJP with vote share of 44 per cent, 62-85 seats to Congress with a vote share of 41 per cent and predicted that others will get 15 per cent votes and 14-15 seats. The P-Marq poll said BJP will win 105-125 seats in Rajasthan with 42.2 per cent vote share and Congress 69-81 seats with 39.7 per cent votes. It said others are poised to get 5-15 seats with 18.1 per cent vote, it said. In Chhattisgarh, exit polls gave Congress a clear edge, showing that the ruling party in the state is poised to return to power with the BJP also expected to put up a good contest unlike in the 2018 polls. While three polls predicted a clear victory of Congress in the state, others said that the party was in the winning range. The Congress fought the election with Chief Minister Bhupesh Baghel at the helm. According to ABP C-Voter predictions, Congress is poised to win 41-53 seats in the state which has a 90-member assembly. The exit poll said BJP is poised to get 36-48 seats and others 0-4 seats. The India Today-Axis My India poll predicted Congress getting 40-50 seats, BJP 36-46 seats and others getting 1-5 seats. The Republic TV exit poll gave Congress 44-52 seats, BJP 34-42 seats and 0-2 polls for others. India TV-CNX poll predicted 46- 56 seats for Congress, 30-40 seats for BJP and 3-5 for others. The numbers for Congress and BJP in the Jan Ki Baat exit poll were 42-53 and 34-45 respectively and it predicted 0-3 seats for others. The P-Marq poll said Congress is poised to win 46-54 seats with 44.6 per cent vote, BJP 35-42 seats with 42.9 per cent vote and others will get 0-2 seats with 12.5 per cent votes. The poll done by Today's Chanakya predicted that Congress will get 57-66 seats in Chhattisgarh with BJP getting 33-42 seats with 0-3 seats going to the others. Counting in four other states that went to the polls this month will also take place on December 3. The polls, held months before the Lok Sabha polls, are crucial for BJP and Congress for various reasons.

Exit polls predict BJP advantage in MP, Rajasthan, Congress win in Chhattisgarh, Telangana and tight contest in Mizoram

With assembly polls in key states coming up, <keyword id="404256" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Congress-Parliamentary-Party" source="Orion">Congress Parliamentary Party</keyword> chairperson <keyword id="19935990" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="Sonia-Gandhi" source="keywords">Sonia Gandhi</keyword> on Wednesday said the "<keyword id="22613088" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Mahaul" source="Orion">mahaul</keyword> (public mood)" is in the party's favour but there is a need to sustain the momentum and goodwill generated for it in the <keyword id="56978" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Lok-Sabha-elections" source="Orion">Lok Sabha elections</keyword>. "We must not become complacent and over confident...I dare say that if we perform well, reflecting the trend that we witnessed in the Lok Sabha elections, national politics will undergo a transformation," she told the <keyword id="19895371" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Congress" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="Congress" meta.hostid="83" meta.entityid="Congress">Congress</keyword> Parliamentary Party (<keyword id="43847" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="CPP" source="Orion">CPP</keyword>). Gandhi also accused the <keyword id="19916814" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Modi-government" source="keywords">Modi government</keyword> of not drawing the right lessons from "their significant decline" in the Lok Sabha elections and persisting with their policy of "dividing communities and spreading an atmosphere of fear and animosity". "Fortunately, the Supreme Court intervened at the right time," she said in an apparent reference to the stay on the orders passed by Uttar Pradesh and Uttarakhand government asking eateries along the Kanwar Yatra route to display the name of owners. "But this can only be a temporary respite. Look at how the rules have been suddenly changed to permit the bureaucracy to participate in the activities of the RSS. It calls itself a cultural organisation but the whole world knows that it is the BJP's political and ideological base," Gandhi said. Noting that elections will be held in four states, she urged party leaders to sustain the momentum and goodwill that had been generated for the party in the Lok Sabha elections. "We must not become complacent and over confident. The 'mahaul' does favour us, but we have to work unitedly with a sense of purpose. I dare say that if we perform well, reflecting the trend that we witnessed in the Lok Sabha elections, national politics will undergo a transformation," Gandhi said. Her remarks come ahead of assembly polls in Haryana, Maharashtra and Jharkhand as also the possibility of elections in Jammu and Kashmir this year. She also slammed the Union Budget, saying that the pressing demands of farmers and youth in particular, have been totally ignored. Allocations in a number of vital sectors have not done justice to the tasks required to be fulfilled, she said. "There has been widespread disappointment, in spite of the prime minister, the finance minister and others to talk up the Budget and its so-called accomplishments. The Union Government, especially its top leadership, continues to be self-delusional as crores of families across the country are devastated by mounting unemployment and price rise," she said.

'Mahaul' in our favour, don't be complacent and over-confident: Sonia Gandhi to party on upcoming polls

Former <keyword id="19904807" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Haryana" source="keywords">Haryana</keyword> Chief Minister Bhupinder Singh <keyword id="20201620" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="hooda" source="keywords">Hooda</keyword> on Tuesday said that <keyword id="19934969" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="farmers" source="keywords">farmers</keyword>' plight, <keyword id="21440881" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Agnipath" source="keywords">Agnipath</keyword>, <keyword id="19916979" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="unemployment" source="keywords">unemployment</keyword>, <keyword id="19938433" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="law-and-order" source="keywords">law and order</keyword>, and <keyword id="19895000" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="inflation" source="keywords">inflation</keyword> were key issues which the ruling <keyword id="19894848" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="BJP" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="BJP" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="BJP">BJP</keyword> failed to address. As the <keyword id="19895371" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Congress" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="Congress" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="Congress">Congress</keyword> appeared set to wrest five Lok Sabha seats from the ruling BJP in Haryana, Hooda said that he had been saying "there is a wave blowing in favour of the Congress". "You asked me about exit polls predicting most seats to the BJP, to which I said wait for the actual poll results on June 4," the Congress veteran said. Haryana is known for "jai jawan, jai kisan, jai pehalwan". "But what did they (BJP) do. They brought Agniveer (Agnipath scheme), which faced opposition from the youth. They did not redress farmers' issues. And everyone knows the treatment that was meted to our wrestler daughters, who had to protest (at Delhi's Jantar Mantar)," he said. Hooda said that unemployment increased in the state during the BJP rule while the law and order situation also deteriorated. He claimed that the Congress' performance in the <keyword id="19912155" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Lok-Sabha-polls" source="keywords">Lok Sabha polls</keyword> in the state will have an impact on the Vidhan Sabha elections, which are due in October. "This is clear indication that people of Haryana have made up their mind to bring the Congress to power in the Assembly polls," Hooda claimed. Referring to the Lok Sabha polls, Hooda said people have supported the Congress. The Congress leader said that he had been maintaining that BJP will be "wiped out in south, halved in north" "Look at Haryana and Rajasthan...People have given us good support," he added. On the BJP's claims that NDA will win 400 seats this time, Hooda said, "I had been saying that it was a mere slogan. In Haryana too, in the 2019 Assembly polls, the BJP had given slogan of 'Abki baar 75 paar' (claiming to win 75 of the 90 seats). Everyone knows how many seats they later won. (BJP had won 40 seats)." Hooda said that he had maintained that it will be a direct fight between the Congress and BJP in Haryana in the Lok Sabha polls. "I had been repeatedly saying that it is going to be a direct fight between the Congress and BJP. And that has been proved," said Hooda. "The people have rejected the 'vote katu' (vote cutters) outfits," he added referring to the JJP and INLD. Going by the trends available late afternoon, the Congress appeared on course to win Ambala, Hisar, Rohtak, Sirsa and Sonipat seats. The grand old party had contested nine of the ten Lok Sabha seats leaving the Kurukshetra seat to its INDIA bloc ally AAP. AAP's Sushil Gupta, was, however, behind BJP's Naveen Jindal from the seat.

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BJP failed to address key issues like inflation and unemployment, says Bhupinder Hooda

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