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Chennai, With the <keyword id="19899810" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="reserve-bank-of-india" source="keywords">Reserve Bank of India</keyword>'s (<keyword id="19899808" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="rbi" source="keywords">RBI</keyword>) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) deciding to retain the repo rate at 6.5 per cent, economists are of the view that a rate cut may not happen any time soon or at least for next six months, said senior economists. In a 5:1 decision, the MPC which met on February 6-8, decided to hold the repo rate -- the rate at which the RBI lends to banks -- at 6.5 per cent. The RBI MPC also decided not to change its stance to 'neutral' from 'withdrawal of accommodation'. "It was no surprise that RBI MPC decided to keep the status quo on the interest rates for the sixth consecutive time. However, RBI continued to sound hawkish as against the market expectations and has not provided any indication of the timing of the change in monetary stance from withdrawal of accommodation," said <keyword id="20504468" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="suman-chowdhury" source="keywords">Suman Chowdhury</keyword>, Chief Economist and Head - Research, Acuite Ratings &amp; Research. "Given the tone of the MPC statement and the expectation of growth buoyancy, we believe that the likelihood of any rate cut by RBI has significantly reduced over the next six months," Chowdhury added. The RBI MPC will not cut the repo rate ahead of the US Federal Reserve, said Madhavi Arora, Lead Economist, Emkay Global Financial Services. "We understand that shifting debates on global narratives requires the RBI to be flexible as well. We have long maintained that the RBI's policy has been somewhat pegged to the Fed, specifically in the last two years, even as it formally targeted inflation. The swift turn of tone and action pivots of the RBI in the last two years have been influenced purely by global narrative. We do not see RBI preceding the Fed in rate cuts," Arora said. Predicting that RBI will remain cautious owing to high food inflation, CARE Ratings's Chief Economist Rajani Sinha said: "Healthy economic growth gives room to the Central Bank to maintain status quo for some more time." "However, in the second half of the year, as domestic inflationary concerns recede and the US Fed starts cutting rates, we can expect a shallow rate cut by RBI. On the liquidity front, RBI will continue to intervene through appropriate tools as required," Sinha said. <keyword id="20504469" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="sujan-hajra" source="keywords">Sujan Hajra</keyword>, Chief Economist &amp; Executive Director, Anand Rathi Shares and Stock Brokers, was also of view that rate cut may not happen any soon and RBI will be on wait and watch mode. "With RBI's inflation projection of 4.5% for FY25, any expectations of cuts coming in the current year become unlikely. We think the progress in food prices will be the key monitorable for RBI's tone in the upcoming policy. Like other central banks, higher growth for the current and next year gives RBI more headroom to be on a wait-and-watch mode," Hajra said. As to the 7% economic growth rate for FY25 stated by RBI Governor <keyword id="19913110" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="shaktikanta-das" source="keywords">Shaktikanta Das</keyword>, Chowdhury said: "They have significantly upgraded their growth prospects for the next fiscal to 7.0%, reflecting that there are minimal concerns on economic growth at this time." "RBI's assessment on global growth also appears to be positive versus last year and it also believes that central banks are unlikely to resort to a pivot within a short period. Our outlook on the domestic growth prospects are moderate with a base forecast of 6.3% for FY25, given the visible weakness in the private consumption growth which is estimated at 4.4% in FY24 in the NSO estimates," Chowdhury said. "On the inflation front, the base forecast for headline CPI in FY25 is set at 4.5% which in our opinion has significant upside risks if the growth really maintains such a high level of momentum and if there are even moderate risks in the monsoon behavior," Chowdhury added.

RBI may not cut repo rate any soon or for six months: Economists

<ul><li><keyword id="30067" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="rbi" source="Orion">RBI</keyword>’s MPC keeps <keyword id="6371181" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="interest-rates" source="Orion">interest rates</keyword> unchanged in the first policy of FY25.</li><li>Most experts had expected the RBI to maintain the status quo on interest rates.</li><li>A few, however, expected it to soften its hawkish forward guidance. </li></ul>The Indian central bank’s rate-setting panel, the <keyword id="6357126" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="monetary-policy" source="Orion">Monetary Policy</keyword> Committee (MPC), kept the repo rate unchanged at 6.5% on Friday. It remained focused on the withdrawal of accommodation in the first monetary policy of FY25. Both these decisions were taken with a majority of five to one. “Two years ago, around this time, when CPI inflation had peaked at 7.8% in April 2022, the elephant in the room was inflation. The elephant has now gone out for a walk and appears to be returning to the forest. We would like the elephant to return to the forest and remain there on a durable basis,” said Shaktikanta Das, governor of the Reserve Bank of India. The second advance estimate (SAE) placed real GDP growth at 7.6% for the recently concluded FY24 — the third successive year of 7 per cent or higher growth. RBI projects FY25’s real GDP growth at 7%. “Robust growth prospects provide the policy space to remain focused on inflation and ensure its descent to the target of 4%. Under these circumstances, monetary policy must continue to be actively disinflationary to ensure anchoring of inflation expectations and fuller transmission of the past actions,” said Shaktikanta Das, governor of the Reserve Bank of India. His speech pointed out that uncertainties in food prices continue to pose challenges especially as temperatures are expected to be above normal. The MPC remains vigilant to the upside risks to inflation that might derail the path of disinflation. “Elephant moves slowly, and last mile inflation tends to be sticky,” said Das at the RBI press conference. RBI sees FY25’s consumer price inflation (CPI) inflation, assuming a normal monsoon, at 4.5%. The RBI had repeatedly insisted that it intends to bring down retail inflation below 4%. “It is essential, in the best interest of the economy, that CPI inflation continues to moderate and aligns with the target on a durable basis. Till this is achieved, our task remains unfinished,” said Das pointing to frequent incidences of supply chain shocks. He also added that the crude oil price movements in the last few days. GDP growth &amp; inflation projections by RBI for FY25 <table style="border-width: initial; border-style: none; table-layout: fixed; width: 468pt;" class="redcator-table-advance"></colgroup><tbody><tr><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">Time period </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">Real GDP growth </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">CPI inflation </td></tr><tr><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">FY25 </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">7% </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">4.5% </td></tr><tr><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">Q1 FY25 </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">7.1% </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">4.9% </td></tr><tr><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">Q2 FY25 </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">6.9% </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">3.8% </td></tr><tr><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">Q3 FY25 </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">7% </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">4.6% </td></tr><tr><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">Q4 FY25 </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">7% </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">4.5% </td></tr></tbody><tbody></tbody></table> Hot inflation keeping RBI in wait-and-watch mode say economists This is the seventh consecutive policy review cycle where the MPC has chosen to keep the repo rate unchanged at 6.5%. Most experts have been expecting the RBI to maintain the status quo. Its current decision, most say, is a balanced approach towards growth while being vigilant over headline inflation. “This careful stance reflects concerns over potential inflationary pressures arising from volatile food prices, recent upticks in oil prices, and robust economic growth. While there was some anticipation of rate cuts by the end of 2024, the RBI seems inclined to adopt a wait-and-see approach before initiating a rate cut cycle,” says Sujan Hajra, chief economist &amp; executive director at Anand Rathi Shares and Stock Brokers. Volatile food inflation in the last few months has been worrying economists. The ongoing heatwave combined with the persistent El Niño impact brings back worries about cereal and pulse price hikes. While the wheat crop has by and large been harvested, vegetable prices also pose an additional worry. The Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) has predicted higher-than-normal maximum temperatures across the country this summer. While core inflation has been softening, in the last few days, crude oil prices have inched up to cross $90 per barrel. "The monetary policy stance announced today reflects that the RBI is evenly balancing the two divergent objectives of growth and inflation. It seems a case of full commitment to growth with an even higher commitment to inflation targets. I hope we will see sustained growth and softened inflation,” Anu Aggarwal, president &amp; head of corporate banking, Kotak Mahindra Bank. The RBI governor’s stance on bringing down inflation has made economists delay their rate cut expectations as far as Q3 of FY25. The Bank of Japan has recently ended its negative interest rate policy and the US Fed has also delayed its much anticipated easing cycle. Most economists believe that RBI policy is pegged to the Fed, especially in the last two years, even as it formally targeted inflation. “External dynamics have been fluid, implying that the policy prerogative needs to be flexible for ensuring financial stability. We maintain the RBI’s tone will slowly tiptoe to ‘Gracklish’ from the usual ‘Hawk-Dove’ signaling, implying a non-committal stance and limited definite forward guidance ahead,” said Madhavi Arora, lead economist, Emkay Global Financial Services.

We want the elephant of inflation to walk back to the forest: Shaktikanta Das

Budget overhang is likely to dominate trading pattern in the equity market this week, while participants will also keenly watch other developments like RBI policy, release of key macro data and quarterly earnings, according to analysts.
 Giving a thumbs down to the Budget, the market benchmark Sensex logged its biggest single-day plunge in more than a decade on Saturday after Budget presentation.
 Analysts said investors were disappointed as the Budget failed to live up to market expectations of growth-boosting measures and fiscal discipline.
 "The lack of major growth boosting measures in itself is negative for the equity market. The new income tax regime would also be negative for tax exempt equity savings schemes," Sujan Hajra, Chief Economist and Executive Director, Anand Rathi Shares &amp; Stock Brokers said.
 Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman on Saturday slashed income tax for individuals, abolished dividend tax for companies and announced some measures for agriculture and infrastructure sectors.
 "Recasting of dividend taxation norms also seem to be on the balance negative for most domestic equity investors. Overall, the budget seems to be negative for the equity market," Hajra said.
 Further, income tax slab rejigs also stoked fears of declining inflows in tax-saving investment avenues. 
 "Income tax changes announced has come with riders of giving up exemptions which disappointed the markets, with insurance sector being impacted the most," Geojit Financial Services Ltd Head of Research Vinod Nair said.
 He further said that the flexibility shown in FY20 fiscal deficit is positive, but extending the same to FY21 would have provided more confidence to the market. 
 "Since the event is over, the focus will now turn to ongoing Q3 announcements and how global events unfolds in the near term," Nair added.
 The Reserve Bank will on Thursday announce its first bi-monthly monetary policy post-Budget. 
 PMI data for manufacturing and services sector are also due this week. 
 On corporate earnings front, Bharti Airtel, Lupin, Sun Pharma and Mahindra &amp; Mahindra are among the major companies scheduled to declare their October-December results this week.
 Concerns related to coronavirus may also dictate sentiments in the global as well as domestic market.
 On Budget day, the <keyword id="53232" type="COMPANY" weightage="20" keywordseo="BSE-sensex">BSE Sensex</keyword> ended 987.96 points, or 2.43 per cent lower, at 39,735.53. Over the last week, it plummeted 1,877.66 points to close below the key 40,000-mark. SUM RVK See Also: <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/personal-finance/news/you-will-now-have-to-pay-14-5-tax-on-dividend-received-on-lic-policy/articleshow/73887794.cms?src=hp_ts">You will now have to pay 14.5% tax on dividend received on LIC policy</a>

Watch out for RBI policy review and earnings from Airtel, Lupin, Sun Pharma and M&M this week

New Delhi, Feb 1 () Investor wealth plummeted by Rs 3.46 lakh crore on Saturday as equity markets came crashing after the Union Budget for 2020-21 failed to live up to expectations.
 The massive sell-off in equity market wiped out investor wealth, which fell by Rs 3,46,256.76 crore to Rs 1,53,04,724.97 crore on the BSE.
 Market capitalisation of BSE-listed firms plunged as BSE Sensex plummeted 987.96 points to close below the key 40,000-mark. It closed at 39,735.53.
 This was the benchmark's biggest drop since October 24, 2008, when it had plummeted 1,070.63 points, and the fourth biggest fall overall.
 "The lack of major growth boosting measures in itself is negative for the equity market. The new income tax regime would also be negative for tax exempt equity savings schemes. Recasting of dividend taxation norms also seem to be on the balance negative for most domestic equity investors. Overall, the budget seems to be negative for the equity market," Anand Rathi Shares &amp; Stock Brokers Chief Economist and Executive Director Sujan Hajra said.
 Motilal Oswal Financial Services Managing Director &amp; CEO Motilal Oswal said, "Markets have taken a cautious view on the Budget, the tax rate cut and DDT (Dividend Distribution Tax) benefit will help economy to grow and corporate payouts to increase. At these levels one should buy for long term."
 The government on Saturday proposed to remove DDT on companies, and henceforth the tax will be shifted to recipients at the applicable rate.
 Currently, companies are required to pay DDT on the dividend paid to shareholders at the rate of 15 per cent plus applicable surcharge and cess, in addition to the tax payable by the company on its profits.
 "The budget is good on intent. However, the key is efficient execution in a time-bound manner. There are many positives to simplify things and encourage entrepreneurs but again, key will be execution in a time-bound manner. Intent needs to be converted into implementation," Nilesh Shah, MD &amp; CEO, Kotak Mahindra Asset Management Company said.
 The finance minister said that improvement in revenue generation gives hopes of lowering fiscal deficit to 3.5 per cent of GDP in the next fiscal from 3.8 per cent in the current.
 From the 30-share pack on BSE, 24 companies suffered losses, led by ITC, Larsen &amp; Toubro, HDFC and State Bank of India.
 According to Krishna Kumar Karwa, Managing Director - Emkay Global Financial Services, investors are disappointed with no relief on long term capital gains (LTCG) tax and lack of big bang sectoral stimulus.
 "The removal of Dividend Distribution Tax seen as a continuation of earlier step of reducing corporate tax is well appreciated and sends the right signals to local and global investors," he added.
 At the BSE, 1,724 scrips declined, while 611 advanced and 126 remained unchanged.
 In the broader market, the BSE SmallCap index fell 2.20 per cent, while BSE MidCap index declined 2.21 per cent.
 "The markets have reacted negatively to the Budget, mainly due to some disappointments on account of non-abolition of LTCG, confusion about the impact of DDT removal and taxing dividends in the hands of recipients. Also the alternative provided to individuals for lower rate of tax, provided they do not claim exemptions/deductions, did not seem too attractive," HDFC Securities MD &amp; CEO Dhiraj Relli said.
 "The alternative tax system discourages investments which market participants do not seem to be comfortable with. The overhang of coronavirus outbreak on our markets also got magnified in the later half of the session. Foreign investors will look for signs of revival of growth before they commit funds," he said. SUM 
RVK

Investor wealth erodes by Rs 3.46 lakh cr as mkts plummet after Budget announcement

Mumbai, Feb 1 () The Sensex logged its biggest single-day plunge in more than a decade on Saturday after the Union Budget failed to live up to market expectations of growth-boosting measures and fiscal discipline.
 The benchmarks, which started on a shaky note, tanked soon after Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman pegged the fiscal deficit at 3.8 per cent for the current fiscal, compared to the earlier target of 3.3 per cent of GDP.
 Presenting the Union Budget for 2020-21 in Parliament, Sitharaman also proposed lower income tax slabs for those foregoing various exemptions, and removed dividend distribution tax on companies, effectively shifting the tax burden to the recipients.
 Nosediving nearly 1,275 points from the day's high, the 30-share BSE Sensex ended 987.96 points or 2.43 per cent lower at 39,735.53.
 This was the benchmark's biggest drop since October 24, 2008, when it had plummeted 1,070.63 points, and the fourth biggest fall overall.
 On similar lines, the 50-share NSE Nifty plunged 300.25 points or 2.51 per cent to close at 11,661.85.
 Investor wealth, measured in terms of value of all listed shares on BSE, plunged by Rs 3,46,256.76 crore to reach Rs 1,53,04,724.97 crore.
 Since the last Budget presentation in July 2019, the Sensex has gained 222.14 points or 0.56 per cent, while the Nifty slumped 149.30 points or 1.26 per cent.
 Analysts said income tax slab rejigs stoked fears of declining inflows in tax-saving investment avenues, while the proposed transfer of dividend distribution tax to investors added to the negative sentiment.
 "The lack of major growth boosting measures in itself is negative for the equity market. The new income tax regime would also be negative for tax exempt equity savings schemes. Recasting of dividend taxation norms also seem to be on the balance negative for most domestic equity investors. Overall, the budget seem to be negative for the equity market," said Sujan Hajra, Chief Economist and Executive Director, Anand Rathi Shares &amp; Stock Brokers.
 ITC was the top laggard in the Sensex pack, tanking 6.97 per cent, after the Budget hiked the excise duty on cigarettes.
 L&amp;T, HDFC, SBI, ONGC, ICICI Bank and IndusInd Bank also lost up to 5.98 per cent.
 On the other hand, TCS rallied 4.13 per cent, followed by HUL, Nestle India, Tech Mahindra and Infosys.
 In her second Budget presentation, the finance minister said certain government securities will be open for foreign investors, adding that the Centre plans to increase investment limit for FPIs in corporate bonds from 9 per cent to 15 per cent.
 Abhinav Gupta, President, Capital Market, Share India Securities, said, "We are extremely disappointed with budget. No significant announcement for industry or consumers. Name sake changes in income tax slabs only to create political mileage that may not lead to any significant changes in growth prospects in near term.
 "The FM could have made several key initiatives to spur investment and domestic consumption to address the pain points of the economy. While this budget could have focused on capital creation for nationals as well."
 Sectorally, BSE realty index plunged 7.82 per cent, followed by capital goods, industrials, finance, bankex and metal.
 IT and teck ended with gains of up to 1.41 per cent.
 "DDT removal is good as it increases dividends received in the hands of the taxpayer. However, such receipts now are taxable in their hands. Those above 20 per cent tax slab will now face more tax on their dividend income," said Archit Gupta, Founder, and CEO, ClearTax. ANS ABM
ABM

Budget blow for D-St: Sensex sinks 988 pts; Rs 3.46 lakh cr investor wealth wiped off

India just became the ninth largest equity market in the world as the stock <keyword id="118864" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="20" keywordseo="Market-capitalisation">market capitalisation</keyword> (M-cap) crossed $2 trillion. This was due to the relentless buying by local and offshore investors. As per the Bloomberg data, the increase in stock prices has pushed up India's M-cap-to-GDP ratio, a tool used by equity strategists to assess the relative valuation of a market, well above the 10-year average. "India has the largest number of listed companies in the world. Interestingly, nearly 50 per cent of the actively traded companies have M-cap of less than Rs 500 crore. This suggests that Indian companies go public much earlier than in most other large economies. The relatively high Mcap-to-GDP ratio in India, therefore, is reflective of strong appetite of Indian entrepreneurs to access public equity funding and the willingness of Indian equity investors to fund such entrepreneurs,” Sujan Hajra, chief economist at brokerage Anand Rathi, told ET. For India, the ratio had peaked at 1.48 in 2007. "India can see further expansion in the M-cap-to-GDP ratio as private and government capex kicks in. The possibility of rating upgrade by the year-end could push up the ratio further. It can reach 1.1 to 1.2,” A. Balasubramanian, CEO, Birla Sun Life Mutual Fund, told ET. India's contribution to global M-cap has risen to a six-year high of 2.7 per cent against a six-year average of 2.2 per cent .

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RBI may not cut repo rate any soon or for six months: Economists

IANS

We want the elephant of inflation to walk back to the forest: Shaktikanta Das

Katya Naidu

Watch out for RBI policy review and earnings from Airtel, Lupin, Sun Pharma and M&M this week

PTI

Investor wealth erodes by Rs 3.46 lakh cr as mkts plummet after Budget announcement

PTI

Budget blow for D-St: Sensex sinks 988 pts; Rs 3.46 lakh cr investor wealth wiped off

PTI

India’s stock market capitalisation crosses $2 trillion; further expansion expected

BI India Bureau

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