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India could see a shift in foreign direct investment (FDI) trends in the second term of Donald Trump (Trump 2.0) as President of the United States, says a research report by the State Bank of India. The report highlighted that under his first term, Trump 1.0, the Trump administration made sweeping regulatory changes aimed at attracting investments back to the U.S., which impacted FDI inflows globally, including India. It added that if similar policies are reintroduced in Trump 2.0 also, it could create challenges for emerging markets like India, which rely on FDI as a significant driver of economic growth. Notably, a recent Kotak report highlighted that a complete Republican control over all arms of the US government would mean increased US earnings via corporate tax cuts, higher tariffs on imports into the US and greater US fiscal deficits. The first two could spell doom for emerging markets like India and China, since foreign investors will make a beeline for investing more money in the US markets, which will come at the cost of intense selloff in emerging markets. However, higher fiscal deficits will eventually lead to the dollar weakening after the initial euphoria dies down. "India may see shifts in foreign direct investments (FDIs) during Trump 2.0. The Trump 1.0 administration saw significant regulatory changes aimed at attracting investments back to the US," the SBI report stated. However, given that India has been gradually diversifying its sources of FDI (foreign direct investments), this trend could serve as a buffer against any potential decline. Moreover, domestic institutional investors have been stepping up big time, maintaining some balance to the massive exodus of FIIs over the past month. So far in November 2024, FIIs have withdrawn Rs 19,849 crores from the cash segment in Indian markets, while DIIs have poured in Rs 14,014.18 crores as of November 10th, 2024. "India is no longer dependent on the traditional sources of FDI inflows... unlike the recent past, FDI is now coming in many new sectors," noted the SBI report. Unlike a decade ago, when most FDI inflows came from a limited number of traditional sectors, India is now attracting investment in a wide array of industries, including renewable energy, sea transport, medical devices, and surgical appliances. Data suggests over the last 24 years, i.e., between April 2000 and June 2024, FDIs have poured in $1,013.4 billion in the Indian economy. Out of this, 67%, i.e., $689.88 billion, has come in just the last 10 years. The report added there are up to 12 emerging sectors showing strong FDI interest, which could help offset any loss of inflows in conventional sectors if there is a shift in global investment patterns under another Trump administration. In the last financial year, the top 5 sectors that have received the highest quantum of FDI inflow include the services sector (finance, banking, insurance, and business) which makes up about 16% of the inflows. This is followed computer software &amp; hardware, which constitute around 15% of total FDI flows. Trading and telecommunications follows with a share of 6% each, and Automobile Industry comes next with a 5% share. In the short term, the potential for increased U.S. tariffs, more restrictive H-1B visa policies, and a stronger dollar could bring some volatility to India's trade and investment landscape. However, in the long term, these challenges might also encourage India to expand its manufacturing capabilities, diversify export markets, and focus on becoming economically more self-reliant. Notably, India has maintained a merchandise trade surplus with the U.S. despite tariffs imposed during Trump's first term. This indicates that Indian exports have remained resilient, and there is potential to strengthen this trade relationship further by capitalizing on emerging sectors and reducing dependency on traditional industries. Suman Chowdhury, Executive Director &amp; Chief Economist, Acuité Ratings &amp; Research Limited cautions that in the medium to long term, the trade relationship with the US may see a structural improvement. "Higher tariff and trade restrictions in the US with China should translate into better opportunities for exports of manufactured goods from India", he adds.

FDIs may shift to US under Trump 2.0 but it is unlikely to severely impact FDIs inflow to India, says SBI Report

US presidential candidate <keyword id="19918985" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Donald-Trump" source="keywords">Donald Trump</keyword> has gone from suggesting that immigrants were poisoning the blood of the country to saying that he would welcome immigrants from “nice” countries like Denmark, Switzerland and Norway to his most recent plans of automatically granting green cards to <keyword id="22128571" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="foreign-graduates" source="keywords">foreign graduates</keyword> of US colleges in a rather short duration of time. Feeling a little whiplashed, anyone? Securing a green card in the US is a Herculean task whose difficulty is probably comparable to capturing and bringing back Cerberus. And this legal permanent residence, which can sometimes take decades, is only the first step to becoming a US citizen. Many Indians have tried, whether it’s through residing and working for decades, navigating rather lengthy paperwork or marrying someone who is already a US citizen. Sadly, many have failed too. However, should Donald Trump become the President of the United States again (and decide to keep his word), Indian students might actually have an easier time getting a green card. In a surprising shift from his previous stance on immigration, former President Donald Trump has unveiled a bold plan to automatically grant green cards to foreign graduates of US colleges if re-elected. This announcement, made during a podcast interview with Silicon Valley investors, marks a departure from Trump's traditionally tough rhetoric on immigration. During the podcast hosted by Chamath Palihapitiya and others, Trump expressed his commitment to retaining talent educated in American universities. He argued passionately for granting green cards as a standard benefit for graduates, regardless of the institution they attended. Trump emphasised that this policy should encompass graduates from renowned institutions like Harvard and MIT as well as from junior colleges across the country. “It’s so sad when we lose people from Harvard, MIT, the greatest schools, and lesser schools that are phenomenal schools also,” Trump lamented on the All-In Podcast. “I think you should get, automatically, as part of your diploma, a green card to be able to stay in this country and that includes junior colleges, too.” A green card affords its holder permanent residency rights in the United States and represents a crucial step towards citizenship. Trump's proposal, if enacted, could potentially introduce hundreds of thousands of new applicants for citizenship annually. Adding to the exodus of Indians who have already migrated to the US, over 200,000 Indian nationals are enrolled in institutes across the US in 2024, setting a new record. In fact, the significant surge in Indian students seeking education in the country between 2022-23 represented an unprecedented 35% increase from the year before that. The former US president specifically mentioned India and China, highlighting how talented individuals were unable to stay in the US because of current <keyword id="22151110" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="visa-policies" source="keywords">visa policies</keyword>. We can see how this may show him in a favourable light for green card aspirants. And while we’re not one to look a gift horse in the mouth, it is important to remember that Trump has made his discriminatory nature very public in several instances. Immigration has been a hot topic in the US political arena for decades. However, in recent years, the political right and others have been more divided than ever on this issue. Republicans have been calling for stringent immigration policies and strict border protections. Therefore, even if Trump does deliver what he promises, the packaging will most likely have fine print that might continue to make it difficult for students to attain green cards. In fact, the presidential candidate’s campaign press secretary, Karoline Leavitt, has already clarified that Trump's proposal would only apply to thoroughly vetted college graduates who can “make significant contributions” to America and would not undercut American wages or workers. She emphasised that Trump has outlined the most aggressive vetting process in US history to exclude "all communists, radical Islamists, Hamas supporters, America haters and public charges." Anyhow, Trump’s proposal starkly contrasts with Trump's previous hardline stance on immigration, which had been a cornerstone of his political platform. During his presidency, Trump advocated for stringent immigration policies, including the largest deportation campaign in US history, aimed at undocumented migrants, and building a wall on the southern borders of the country. Trump intensified restrictions on legal immigration amid the pandemic and his final year in office. He proposed halting all immigration to the US and deporting foreign students who didn't attend some in-person classes. A month before the 2020 election, Trump once more moved to tighten regulations on the <keyword id="20773661" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="H-1B-visa" source="keywords">H-1B visa</keyword> program. He has also criticised the H-1B visa program, which tech companies favour for hiring foreign skilled workers, as detrimental to American prosperity. The H-1B visa is a non-immigrant visa allowing US firms to employ foreigners in specialised occupations requiring theoretical or technical expertise. At a recent campaign event in Wisconsin, Trump criticised Biden's immigration policies, particularly lambasting a new program allowing undocumented spouses of US citizens to apply for permanent residence without leaving the country. Trump characterised immigration under Biden as an "invasion" and argued against discussing amnesty, urging instead for measures to halt what he perceives as an influx of unauthorised migrants. Estimates from the Department of Homeland Security suggest that approximately 11 million migrants currently reside in the US without authorization, a statistic that has been central to Trump's arguments against leniency in immigration policy.

Donald Trump strikes again: Ex-President proposes automatic green cards for foreign graduates of US colleges

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Andres Pico, a software engineer from Ecuador, navigated the US education system to land a job at Microsoft.</li><li>Pico faced challenges adapting to US standardized tests and sought scholarships to fund his education.</li></ul>This as-told-to essay is based on a conversation with Andres Pico, a 29-year-old software engineer in Seattle. The following has been edited for length and clarity.I grew up in a small beach town called Manta in Ecuador with my dad, mom, and two sisters. My dad always taught me that there was nothing I couldn't do.I became interested in computers and technology because of <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/guides/tech/playstation-plus">PlayStation</a>. Sometimes, I couldn't finish a game because the dialogue and options were in English, so I became very motivated to learn computers and English.<h2 id="aea16f41-f4aa-4e6e-926f-62684543751d">After graduating from high school, I decided I wanted to pursue my education in the US</h2>To apply to a university in the US, you must pass either the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/do-colleges-require-standardized-testing-sat-admissions-what-it-means-2024-3">SAT or ACT</a>. I bought an ACT book and prepared for many months to ensure I could get a good score.I knew I couldn't attend college in the US without a scholarship, so I began investigating scholarships and programs. I found the University of South Florida in Tampa offered a scholarship for students from Latin American countries that would get me a student visa.I was awarded the scholarship, which allowed me to receive a stipend of $1,000 a year to cover textbooks and resident status for tuition purposes.<h2 id="1ea4606f-8ed1-484d-bf1a-b39e05b12a66">I began a bachelor's degree in computer engineering in 2012</h2><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-and-uk-life-biggest-differences-after-moving-home-space-2024-7">Coming to the US</a> at 17 was very challenging. It was my first time leaving home, and there was a lot I didn't understand about the US. I had no close friends or family here for support or guidance.It was also very exciting, as it was an opportunity to push myself. It took some time to get used to classes in English. I studied hard from 8 a.m. to 11 p.m. every day.<h2 id="d640f046-61e6-4e77-9c39-669f1b3f751d">In my second semester, I found the Society of Hispanic Professional Engineers</h2>The SHPE is a national organization that empowers Hispanics and offers mentorship programs in STEM. Classmates told me they offered free pizza. I'm really glad I was feeling hungry that day.They were welcoming and taught me the basics of the school system, how to <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/why-this-is-an-excellent-resume-2013-11">create a résumé</a>, conduct interviews, and apply to grad school. It was a blessing to find them — suddenly, I had a community of people who wanted to help me succeed.<h2 id="e2632ea8-177e-49a0-b62a-e961cc3cb10a">A fellow student advised me to get as many internships as possible</h2>That was the best advice I received for navigating the US system. If I had just focused on the school material and not gained practical experience, I'm not sure I would've been able to find a job after graduating.I had multiple internships as a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/recruiter-how-filter-applications-software-engineering-job-post-atl-interview-2024-5">software engineer</a> with local companies in data centers and startups via student work permits. These internships allowed me to gain experience and earn some money.I was extremely fortunate to count on my dad's support to cover any difference between my earnings and expenses.<h2 id="f9d3935c-b09d-48b2-9bb8-dfcaa291a51f">I went on to pursue a master's degree in computer science at Virginia Tech</h2>I sought universities with good computer science programs and scholarships or assistantships. Virginia Tech had an amazing program and great tenured professors, and it offered me an opportunity as a TA, so the decision was obvious.My teaching assistantship paid for all my tuition and also paid me around $20,000 each semester.<h2 id="c9fdec8c-c770-4f06-a7af-8a6bb5f26c51">I started applying for jobs in 2017</h2>I must've applied for over 100 of them. When you apply, employers ask you if they'll need to sponsor you at some point in the future, as not every employer can cover the financial costs associated with the process when the time comes.I received four offers from Microsoft, Verizon, Deutsche Bank, and Disney. Microsoft had the best offer and was willing to sponsor my visa.<h2 id="a93721cf-c9e0-46f2-bd96-3071c98b4800">I started as a software engineer with Microsoft in 2018</h2>When I started my job at Microsoft in Seattle, I could work thanks to a student work permit that lasts one year after graduation and is granted to all F-1 visa students. While working on the student permit, your employer helps you apply for an <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/h1b-visa-lottery-changes-benefit-startups-hiring-immigrants-2024-2">H-1B</a> visa.I applied for a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/big-tech-green-card-applications-pause-2024-5">green card</a> after working on my H-1B visa for a year. By this point, I had lived in the US for about six years and created a whole life here, but the green card process was very painful.<h2 id="a2b4001a-c572-41e4-89cb-053b4e3c883a">The process makes life pretty horrible</h2>Having a work visa and going through the green card process are privileges, but it is very hard to separate the emotional component.There's no guarantee that you'll get to stay. If something goes wrong at any given time, you have to be ready to pack your bags and leave everything behind. I know some people who tried to get it three times and ran out of chances and had to return home.The first few years working were also difficult because I wasn't around anyone who looked like me. I wanted to grow and challenge myself, but at the same time, it made me wonder if I belonged, and doubt and <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/managing-imposter-syndrome-when-you-are-the-boss-2021-10">imposter syndrome</a> crept in.Luckily, Microsoft paid for the attorneys in the green card process, and no cost came out of my pocket.<h2 id="1eb526a5-91be-4063-bec1-58a529e97297">I had to constantly review what they were putting on the application forms</h2>My key takeaway is that, even if you're working with lawyers, you still have to assume complete ownership of the application process and remember the lawyers supporting you, being human, can make mistakes.I was audited because some of the information that had been submitted was incorrect. It took me six to eight months to provide supplemental information and pass the audit.In 2022, I finally received my green card after three years.<h2 id="bd375841-9305-458d-bfb3-92ac255d1675">Last year, I decided to move into product management and took a new job at Starbucks</h2>In software engineering, you work on problems created by engineers for engineers. I wanted to learn how to build products that our customers actually love, so I ended up becoming a technical product manager.I love the US, I love the city I live in, and I love its people. I try to make it a better place by providing value through my career and volunteering in my local community.I even recently <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/millennial-couple-left-nyc-bought-vermont-house-slow-life-2024-9">bought a house</a> here — I don't have plans to move anywhere else.Want to share your story? Email Lauryn Haas at lhaas@businessinsider.com.

I got my green card after working at Microsoft on an H-1B visa. The process was very painful, but I love the US and don't plan to leave.

<ul class="summary-list"><li>The tech sector is bracing itself for change under a second Trump presidency.</li><li>AI regulation is likely to change under Trump, but major antitrust cases are unlikely to be impacted.</li></ul><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/donald-trump-wins-presidential-election-race-2024-11">Donald Trump has won the presidency</a> — and the tech world is waiting to see what his administration will mean for key issues like AI regulation, immigration, antitrust issues, and mergers and acquisitions.Trump has promised to assemble a different cabinet for his second time around in the White House. His advisors are likely to include some of the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/who-will-be-in-trump-cabinet-billionaires-buiness-leaders-2024-5#doug-burgum-6">business leaders</a> that backed his campaign, not least among them one of the most powerful figures in tech: <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-praises-elon-musk-a-star-is-born-2024-11">Elon Musk.</a>In an election night speech, Trump showered praise on Musk, marveling at his SpaceX rockets."Elon, he is an amazing guy," Trump said early Wednesday morning.There's a lot at stake for the sector, with a slew of companies facing antitrust battles. And with immigration top of mind for many voters, H-1B visas could be impacted, experts said, dealing a potential blow to tech companies experiencing staffing shortages amid an AI hiring frenzy.Here's how Trump's second term could impact Big Tech.<h2 id="2575ea3e-191a-4962-89ed-6840c2d18465">On the campaign trail, Trump threatened prosecution if reelected</h2>Though Trump has cozied up to one major tech leader — Musk — others are in his crosshairs.While on the campaign trail, Trump threatened retribution against some tech companies, including jailing Meta chief Mark Zuckerberg.During the campaign, he threatened to imprison "election fraudsters," <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/donald-trump-mark-zuckerberg-sent-prison-elected-truth-social-2024-7">including Zuckerberg</a> — who has a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/donald-trump-comments-about-facebook-mark-zuckerberg-feud-history-2024-7">long history with the president</a>; it's unclear whether Trump will follow through on his threats.Trump also <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-google-break-up-china-comments-2024-10">heavily criticized Google throughout his campaign</a>, calling the tech giant "rigged" for not displaying positive stories about him, saying the company is "very bad" to him, and suggesting he would "do something" about its power.In September, Trump escalated his feud with the company by <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/donald-trump-threat-prosecute-google-2024-9">threatening to order the Justice Department to prosecute Google</a> "at the maximum levels" during his second term. He accused the tech giant of engaging in illegal behavior and interfering in the election with the stories it displayed on its search results page.The Justice Department usually operates independently of the president; Trump said on the campaign trail that the criminal justice system has been weaponized against him and threatened to do the same to his political rivals.That norm-breaking change could mean more regulatory issues for the likes of Google — if Trump makes good on his promise.<h2 id="65622481-fb0a-4550-93e2-61275ae53f93">Tariffs remain the biggest question mark</h2>Barclays warned in September that the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/trump-tariff-trade-policy-stock-market-outlook-risk-election-china-2024-9?_gl=1*10bnpgv*_ga*MTA5NzkyNzEwMi4xNzA2NzE1NTM1*_ga_E21CV80ZCZ*MTczMDQ4MjMyMC4xMTAyLjEuMTczMDQ4ODIxNi41NS4wLjA.">tech industry would be one of the hardest hit</a> by Trump's plan for wide-ranging tariffs."While the new proposed tariffs would have a modest direct negative impact on corporate earnings if implemented, the second order effects from higher cost inflation and slowing economic growth would be an incremental headwind to corporate earnings and cause further pain," the bank said.Mark Lemley, professor and director of the Stanford Program in Law, Science &amp; Technology, warned that Trump's plan for huge tariffs on foreign goods could also harm tech companies during his second term."A Trump administration will involve a US withdrawal from the world and the imposition of giant tariffs," Lemley told BI. "That is likely to have devastating consequences for US tech companies that sell in foreign markets as well as crippling domestic consumption."Retail analysts told BI that the industry is following the question of tariffs extremely closely."You can look at that in two ways," Global Data's Neil Saunders said. "You can say it's a negotiating strategy, and it won't actually come to pass, or you can say it will come to pass, maybe in a diluted form and not that severe.""It's causing a lot of nervousness," he added.If Trump does follow through on his campaign proposals, it would mean significant changes to the way retailers do business."It would be a massive upheaval to most of the cost structures for these companies," said Chris Walton, a former Target executive.Given the expense of reorganizing supply chains, Walton said large retailers are still researching their options and making any simple adjustments, rather than committing early to a new strategy.<h2 id="a9e008d3-192d-41d1-b89d-665d46e9ce18">On antitrust, 'most of the low-hanging fruit has already been picked'</h2><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/biden-coporate-monopolies-antitrust-lawsuits-live-nation-amazon-google-meta-2024-5">Antitrust cases are already underway</a> for the major Big Tech companies — including <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/apple-antitrust-lawsuit-justice-department-2024-3#:~:text=The%20US%20Department%20of%20Justice,what%20they%20deem%20anticompetitive%20tactics.">Apple</a>, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/google-doj-battle-best-worst-scenarios-2024-10">Google</a>, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/ruling-ftc-meta-facebook-lawsuit-instagram-whatsapp-can-proceed-2022-1">Meta</a>, and <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/amazon-ftc-lawsuit-partially-dismissed-antitrust-competition-vendor-fulfillment-2024-10">Amazon</a> — but normally, there's not much an incoming president could, or would, do to alter these current cases, George Hay, an antitrust expert and law professor at Cornell University, told Business Insider."It's very rare that, at the presidential level, there's any attempt to influence the course of cases which have already been filed. Those have a life of their own," Hay told BI. "They depend on the judge, the courts, the lawyers who carry on a case. It's extraordinarily unusual for the administration to become at all active."Hay said that, while most presidents wouldn't have any say on existing cases, "Trump is a bit more of a wild card."But he added he couldn't think of "any reason why he would interfere with cases that have already been filed. It would be quite an extraordinary thing to do."While not much is expected to change for current antitrust cases, Hay said, Trump may take a less aggressive approach to antitrust enforcement than Vice President Kamala Harris would have.Besides, Hay said, "most of the low-hanging fruit has already been picked," meaning there are not many new antitrust cases that could be filed against the biggest tech companies.One factor that could change things is who Trump appoints as the Assistant Attorney General leading the antitrust division.Hay said that if Trump appoints an experienced, practicing lawyer, "even if that lawyer is relatively conservative, I don't think things are going to change very much.""The changes we've observed over history are when the Republicans appointed an academic," Hay added. "That's where you see some radical changes."But overall, not much is likely to change on the antitrust front under Trump's second administration, Hay said."So if I had very strong views about antitrust, I could sleep well at night regardless of who gets appointed," Hay said. "Because it's a system with laws and courts and people, and most of the people and most of the courts, and most of the laws are not going to change."<h2 id="91f4c525-6767-4d4e-90f3-4773e832f799">Republicans have historically been 'more merger-friendly'</h2>Hay expected that "more big mergers will be proposed under Trump" while Dan Romanoff, a senior equity research analyst at Morningstar, suggested that Trump was less likely to oppose major deals.More aggressive merger guidelines were put in place under President Joe Biden in 2023; now, under Trump, "those are going to go, and they'll be replaced," Hay said.But still, new guidelines won't have much impact on the biggest tech companies, Hay said.Anna Rathbun, chief investment officer at CBIZ, told Business Insider that M&amp;A activity has been low for the past two years because of low interest rates — not because of an antagonistic attitude from the Biden administration.And the notion that Republicans are more business-friendly could be due to "short-term memory," she said, noting that the first Trump administration sued to <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-tried-to-block-the-att-time-warner-merger-to-spite-cnn-report-2019-3">block a merger</a> between AT&amp;T and Time Warner.While a Republican administration is usually considered to be more business-friendly, Walton said it might not be so straightforward under Trump."It can wax and wane to whatever the flavor of the month is in terms of where his administration wants to focus, or who he wants to benefit," he said.<h2 id="fa61ac75-e5d0-4af3-b58d-8b628e7f0f02">Restricting H1-B visas could damage America's competitive edge</h2>Trump made a widespread immigration crackdown a centerpiece of his 2024 campaign — and now that he's president, that could impact an <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/inside-the-ai-hiring-frenzy-big-tech-talent-war-2024-3">understaffed tech sector</a> relying on H1-B visas as the AI hiring wars rage on.National security concerns — with two current wars — are vastly different than when Trump wanted to restrict H1-Bs during his first term, Rathbun told BI. But at the same time, "we have a worker shortage," she added.Experts fear that, if H1-Bs are restricted under the second Trump administration, the US could lose its competitive edge on the world stage."You shouldn't ban exports on chips and then completely export the talented labor," Rathbun said. "That makes no sense."James Brundage, Ernst &amp; Young's global and Americas technology sector leader, added that any company relying on overseas hiring will be challenged in coming years.Three of the five largest companies in the world have immigrant CEOs, he said. He added that, while the US has built up a tech lead over decades, "you can see how that could slow."And as retailers like Walmart and Target become increasingly tech-like, a crackdown on high-skilled immigrant talent could complicate their business, Saunders and Walton said.Some think Trump may not follow through on his rhetoric once he takes office in January.Valerie Wirtschafter, a fellow at the Brookings Institution's Foreign Policy, Artificial Intelligence and Emerging Technology Initiative, told BI she thought the Trump administration would prioritize US leadership and "maintaining that lead at all costs."She added that, if bringing talent in through H1-B visas keeps the US competitive, even if it's at odds with Trump's campaign promises, "I think they'll find some way to reconcile or ignore some of those campaign promises, too."<h2 id="6145404f-90b3-4477-b7c6-aad82b231607">Trump's vow to rescind Biden's AI order could be 'double-edged'</h2>Trump has not provided many specific details about what AI policies he would pursue — though he did <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-ai-dangerous-still-posts-ai-memes-truth-social-x-2024-8">call the technology "very dangerous"</a> after posting AI-generated images of "Swifties for Trump.""Our instinct is that Trump would be more hands-off and Harris would be more hands-on," Romanoff said of AI regulation.One thing Trump has <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-harris-presidency-impact-ai-artificial-intelligence-2024-10">promised is to rescind Biden's executive order on AI</a>, which outlines policies around AI governance, promoting competition, and addressing AI-enabled threats. Trump had said the order challenges free speech.Wirtschafter told BI that repealing Biden's order would be a mixed bag for tech companies."I think it's double-edged in some sense where, of course, less regulation, less reporting, less bureaucratic hoops to jump through, that's all good and great," Wirtschafter said.But she added that rescinding the order could also be "somewhat unsettling," adding, "Some of these companies do want some sort of road map for this technology, and the more harmonized it can be, the better."

What's next for tech giants like Google, Apple, and Microsoft now Trump has won

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Donald Trump's policies may impact legal immigrants in tech, sparking fears of a worker shortage.</li><li>In his last term, Trump paused some work visa programs used by tech firms to hire skilled talent.</li></ul>Many in the tech industry are concerned that President Donald Trump will make it harder to hire immigrants, sapping an important source of technical talent for the sector."If the backlash against immigrants impacts the flow of really talented people into the country, that's probably not good for us overall," said Michael Greeley, a general partner at Flare Capital Partners, a healthcare technology investor.Trump's election win could lead to <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-harris-immigration-jobs-arizona-economy-mass-deportation-employment-wages-2024-10">mass deportations of </a><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-deportation-immigration-plan-impact-recession-risk-inflation-stagflation-labor-2024-6">undocumented immigrants.</a> Trump's campaign has also promised to complete the southern border wall and revive the "<a target="_blank" href="https://time.com/7022828/trump-travel-ban-refugees-gaza/">famous</a> travel ban," which restricted people from countries that were predominately Muslim to enter the US. This order <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2017/jan/30/donald-trump-travel-ban-tech-workers-muslim-immigration">left many tech workers</a> stranded outside of the US in 2017.What's less understood is how the president-elect will shape a legal immigration system that pipes high-skilled workers from outside the US into coveted tech jobs.It's hard to estimate the number of legal immigrants working in the tech sector due to the variety of visa types available to them. The H-1B visa program is the nation's largest temporary work visa program, with over 600,000 workers across 50,000 employers. According to <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/files/document/reports/OLA_Signed_H-1B_Characteristics_Congressional_Report_FY2023.pdf">USCIS data</a>, the majority of petitions approved in the previous fiscal year, 65%, went to workers in computer-related roles.The new year should bring clarity on H-1Bs, said Hiba Mona Anver, a Silicon Valley-based immigration attorney who works with tech startups. In the meantime, she and other attorneys say they're getting on the phone with clients."I wouldn't go as far as to say that I'm sensing anxiety per se," Anver said, but there is "a sense of the need to prepare.""Trump doesn't have a great track record of supporting the visas that are critical to startup founders and early employees who want to build companies in the US," said Jenny Fielding, cofounder and managing partner of Everywhere Ventures, which invests globally.In his first term, Trump fashioned himself as the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.uscis.gov/archive/buy-american-and-hire-american-putting-american-workers-first">"Buy American, Hire American"</a> president. He signed an executive order to suspend some temporary work visas like the H-1B for skilled workers, a move that <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/silicon-valley-to-feel-impact-trumps-h-1b-visa-order-2020-6">hit tech hardest</a>. His administration saw an increase of <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/more-h-1b-visa-applications-rejected-under-trump-2019-2">denial rates</a> for visa applications and more requests for evidence seeking further proof of workers' eligibility."From 2016 to 2020, the average denial rate for H1-B visas was over 17%, compared to just 3.2% under President Biden," said Palo Alto-based immigration attorney Sophie Alcorn.Under stricter immigration laws, the tech industry could snap back to a pandemic-era worker shortage, especially for companies at the frontier. Experts told Business Insider the sector <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/tech-workers-real-winners-ai-talent-war-pay-2024-7">is already understaffed</a>, and recruiting for artificial intelligence skills is particularly tough as <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/inside-the-ai-hiring-frenzy-big-tech-talent-war-2024-3">every company scrambles to hire workers</a> capable of leading them into the future.Anna Rathbun, chief investment officer of CBIZ, a Cleveland-based financial advisory, previously told Business Insider, "You shouldn't ban exports on chips and then completely export the talented labor. That makes no sense."Aaron Levie, the chief executive of Box and one of Silicon Valley's senior statesmen, offered hope that Elon Musk, at Trump's side, could bring a fresh approach to the issue."Our high skilled immigration system is frozen in time and not responsive to the market," Levie <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://x.com/levie/status/1854733432410325002">posted</a> on social media site X. "We have far more demand for the top talent to work for and start companies here than we let in. It's a bipartisan issue that politicians don't touch. Someone like Elon finally could do it."Musk, a strong supporter of Trump and who <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/elon-musk-could-help-deregulate-tech-amid-a-trump-victory-2024-11">could be considered for a role</a> in the administration, replied, "I agree."The AI skills gap is so severe that tech firms are <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/tech-companies-raid-top-university-campuses-rare-artificial-intelligence-talent-2023-4">scouring university programs</a>, enticing students with six-figure salaries and resources far beyond what academia can offer.In podcast interviews over the years, Trump has also discussed the importance of attracting the best and brightest. He even suggested during an appearance on the tech-favorite podcast "All-In" in June that non-US students who graduate from US colleges <a target="_blank" href="https://www.reuters.com/world/us/trump-says-foreign-college-graduates-should-automatically-get-green-cards-2024-06-20/">should get green cards</a>.There could be reasons for optimism for the tech industry given newer figures in Trump's orbit, Alcorn noted. Vice President-elect JD Vance has a <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/jd-vance-venture-capital-opioid-nonprofit-tech-record-ohio-senate-2021-8">venture capital background</a>, and Musk is an immigrant himself <a target="_blank" href="https://www.cnn.com/2024/10/28/us/elon-musk-immigration-washington-post-cec/index.html">who has said</a> he was on an H1-B visa previously.<div type="image" title="Elon Musk and Donald Trump shake hands" height="683" width="911" msid="115143545" hostid="261" sizebytes="27914"></div>Chris Farmer, founder of SignalFire, an early-stage investor, said tech elites like Vance and Musk will "have his ear" on setting a new standard for high-skilled immigration, though for how long is uncertain.The Trump campaign did not immediately respond to a request for comment from Business Insider.One visa holder told Business Insider she expects H-1Bs will become more difficult to obtain under Trump.Shin Yi Chong, who received her H1-B visa in 2019, was recently laid off from her tech job as a product manager. After living in the US for roughly a decade, she said she now has weeks to find a new job or face deportation."Just seeing historical data from what happened when Trump was in office the last time," she said, "I don't foresee it changing in a positive direction."Shubhangi Goel and Riddhi Kanetkar contributed reporting.

Silicon Valley is on edge as Trump's immigration policy sparks fears of a high-tech talent shortage

<ul class="summary-list"><li>The H-1B visa program is undergoing changes.</li><li>Under the new process, all individuals have the same chance of being selected in the lottery.</li></ul>A new reform to the US H-1B visa program aims to ring out some of the uncertainty for migrant workers and employers.The US Citizenship and Immigration Services recently <a target="_blank" href="https://www.uscis.gov/newsroom/news-releases/uscis-announces-strengthened-integrity-measures-for-h-1b-program">said</a> it finalized measures to make sure each applicant has the same chance of being selected for the H1-B visa program, the nation's largest temporary work visa program with over 600,000 workers across 50,000 employers.Each year, tens of thousands of foreign nationals wind up at venture-backed companies through the employment-based visa program. Tech companies like Stripe, Plaid, and X, formerly known as Twitter,<a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-startups-sponsor-h1b-work-visas-2024-1"> use the H-1B visa to fill labor shortages</a> for jobs that require a college degree, by providing work authorization for migrant workers in fields like engineering, business admin, and mathematics.However, obtaining an H-1B visa remains challenging due to high demand. The program gets more interest than it can meet — with the number of yearly visas <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.in/international/news/us-reaches-h-1b-cap-for-fiscal-year-2024/articleshow/106011187.cms">capped at 85,000</a> — so the government uses a lottery process to decide who comes in.The lottery has had a loophole that some have abused in past years to try to game the system. Nothing in the law had prohibited an individual from having multiple entries in the lottery if they can secure multiple job offers, said Jason Finkelman, an Austin<a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/immigration-attorneys-lawyers-helping-startups-founders-entrepreneurs-secure-work-visas-2021-8"> immigration lawyer</a> who specializes in work visas. In theory, having more registrations in the lottery gave migrant workers more chances to win a coveted visa.Last year, the number of registrations filed on behalf of foreign nationals jumped to 780,000, a 61% increase over the previous year.<a target="_blank" href="https://www.uscis.gov/working-in-the-united-states/temporary-workers/h-1b-specialty-occupations-and-fashion-models/h-1b-electronic-registration-process"> Data shows</a> much of the increase was due to a record-breaking number of employers submitting multiple H-1B registrations for the same person. They might have set up unique corporate structures or banded with other companies to try and get around the rules."This led to many individuals being entered into the lottery multiple times, through different companies, and ultimately decreasing the odds of being selected in the lottery," Finkelman said.The new regulations aim to curtail this sort of behavior. Registrations will now be selected from a pool of unique individuals rather than the total number of entries. A <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/hardest-software-engineering-interviews-ranked-2023-12">software engineer</a> in Hyderabad with one job offer has the same odds of being selected as the researcher in Beijing with a binder full of offers. USCIS said the new process takes effect in the lottery in April.These changes are good news for startups and small businesses, says <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/h1b-visa-lottery-system-alternative-options-sponsorship-2021-2">Sophie Alcorn, an immigration lawyer based in Silicon Valley</a>. The reform makes it less attractive for applicants to secure multiple job offers, which should drive down the overall number of registrations. This improves the odds for startups that their applicant gets selected in the lottery."For a startup that's willing to sponsor, there's a higher likelihood that [an applicant] will go to work for that company that's willing to sponsor them," Alcorn said. "There's more predictability."Even before the reform, Finkelman said he saw inquiries from startups tick up because of the proposed changes."We're seeing increased interest from startups, which are in desperate need of top talent and which oftentimes require visa sponsorship [to fill roles], to enter candidates into the lottery," Finkelman said. "They see the playing field will be evened out."

Uncle Sam just overhauled the H-1B visa lottery, and that's good news for startups

Amidst the global focus on the COVID-19 <keyword id="43587" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="pandemic" source="Orion">pandemic</keyword> in 2020, a new and concerning viral threat emerged, largely unnoticed. While attention was diverted, the highly pathogenic avian influenza virus, <keyword id="13234273" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="h5n1" source="Orion">H5N1</keyword>, quietly evolved into a new variant, labelled 2.3.4.4b, presenting a significant development in its transmission pattern. A recent study has unveiled a startling revelation: H5N1, traditionally associated with <keyword id="20838242" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="avian-populations" source="keywords">avian populations</keyword>, has breached into marine mammals. Instances of the virus have been detected in marine animals along the Atlantic coast of South America, prompting concerns over potential transmission to humans. Researchers conducted an analysis of brain samples from deceased animals in an affected sea lion rookery in Argentina. Alarmingly, all samples, encompassing sea lions, fur seals, and terns, tested positive for H5N1, specifically the 2.3.4.4b variant. This mutation is notable for its ability to infect both avian and marine species, indicating a concerning adaptability of the virus. Scientists fear the likelihood of a multi-species outbreak as the virus infiltrates diverse food chains within the region. Previous observations of similar mutations in sea lions from Peru and Chile, as well as a singular human case in Chile, underscore the gravity of this development. Termed a "New onster" by senior author Marcela Uhart, the variant initiated mass die-offs among seabirds in Europe before spreading globally, eventually reaching South America in 2022. The true extent of the virus's impact became evident in August 2023 when it ravaged sea lion populations at the southern tip of the continent, subsequently spreading northward. Mortality rates among marine mammals, particularly elephant seal pups, soared to alarming levels, reaching 96% in surveyed areas by November 2023. Since its introduction to South America, H5N1 has claimed the lives of over six lakh wild birds and 50,000 marine mammals. While <keyword id="8626520" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="human-transmission" source="Orion">human transmission</keyword> remains relatively low-risk, ongoing replication within mammalian hosts poses a concerning escalation of the threat. As the virus progresses southward, scientists express grave concerns regarding its potential impact on <keyword id="19945467" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="antarctica" source="keywords">Antarctica</keyword>'s unique wildlife, notably penguins. To address this looming threat, surveillance efforts are underway in Antarctica to monitor the virus's spread and its potential consequences on vulnerable species. These findings have been published in Emerging Infectious Diseases.

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