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<ul class="summary-list"><li><keyword id="12801530" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="guido-vanham" source="Orion">Guido Vanham</keyword> is a Belgian <keyword id="12801529" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="virologist" source="Orion">virologist</keyword> who's been <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/ways-virologist-told-kids-to-prepare-for-covid-winter-holidays-2020-11">sending</a> <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/read-what-a-virologist-is-telling-family-coronavirus-guido-vanham-2020-3">letters</a> to his children during the pandemic.</li><li>The text of his most recent letter is printed below with permission from his son <keyword id="12801531" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="peter-vanham" source="Orion">Peter Vanham</keyword>.</li></ul>Dear Peter, Johan, and Nele,Dear grandchildren, Your mom and I are so very much looking forward to celebrating the holidays with you — and especially with the newest member of our family! We're so glad you're all safe and that Valeria had a good pregnancy and got herself protected by taking a vaccine (and soon a booster) early.We know you're worried also for the kids, who are facing a difficult situation in school. They now have to wear masks and are asked to get vaccinated even when they run <a href="https://www.mayoclinic.org/diseases-conditions/coronavirus/in-depth/coronavirus-in-babies-and-children/art-20484405">a lower risk of getting sick themselves</a>. You told me how even some of your friends reacted extremely to that news. But I've read all the studies about it and it's very safe for the boys and <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/cdc-pfizer-low-dose-covid-vaccine-for-kids-5-11-2021-11">children their age (5- to 12-year-olds) to get vaccinated</a>. They also won't have much, if any, troubles from wearing a mask. They might even like wearing a mask if you frame it right. They get to do what adults are doing and do their part in helping people from getting sick. My experience is that if you put a positive spin on it and ask them for their <keyword id="11905565" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="100" keywordseo="opinion" source="Orion">opinion</keyword>, they're often more willing to be "courageous" than you might think. As for our newly born granddaughter who's barely a month old: You're already through the most critical phase as Valeria got vaccinated during her pregnancy and with that protected herself and the baby. Even now as she breastfeeds, she <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/pregnant-women-pass-covid-vaccine-antibodies-to-children-2021-9">passes on antibodies</a> that help the baby protect herself. Sadly, the Omicron "variant" of the COVID-19 virus is spreading all over the world now. And I know that you're wondering: What should we expect? Is this going to be the first wave all over again or will we be better off? My assessment is: This may be the most contagious variant yet, with a possible tsunami of infections and sadly little effect of the vaccines on that front. We therefore are better safe than sorry and should do everything we can to protect ourselves and those around us. Here's what I think you should know: First, this Omicron "variant" is a new form of the COVID-19 virus, which causes a <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/exponential-growth-key-understanding-omicron-rapid-spread-2021-12">new wave of infections</a> because it's somehow more potent than the previous variant. Omicron is both <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/how-much-worse-can-coronavirus-get-omicon-variants-2021-12">more contagious</a> than previous variants (<a href="https://www.yalemedicine.org/news/covid-19-variants-of-concern-omicron">Alpha, Beta, Gamma, Delta</a>) and also escapes from the "immunity" the antibodies induced from the previous variants. Omicron <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/how-much-worse-can-coronavirus-get-omicon-variants-2021-12">can infect people</a> who have already been infected with previous variants and even those who were vaccinated several months ago. Moreover, Omicron is <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/fauci-omicron-variant-almost-certainly-not-more-severe-than-delta-2021-12">equally "pathogenic" as previous variants</a> — i.e., it can cause serious disease leading to hospitalization, intense care, or even death. As you know, our <keyword id="11897506" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="healthcare" source="Orion">healthcare</keyword> systems are currently still over-burdened by COVID-19 patients in hospitals and intensive-care wards. I hear that's the case for our local hospital and also for the one in Geneva. As a result, seriously ill people without COVID-19 but with cancer or other life-threatening conditions often have to wait for treatment. That delay of necessary care for non-COVID-19 patients also causes unnecessary fear, suffering, and premature death. The "Delta wave" is now receding, but the "Omicron wave" is already unfolding with the overload of hospitals with COVID-19 patients and delays for non-COVID-19 care. You may have heard Dr. Anthony Fauci is <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/fauci-omicron-rapidly-spreads-doesnt-predict-a-lockdown-in-future-2021-12">predicting the same</a> in the US. (I have known of Dr. Fauci since I was researching HIV in the 1980s. He's an incredible scientist with a résumé in infectious diseases that's equal to none. When he speaks, we should all listen.) So what can we do together to avoid or certainly reduce the Omicron wave?Omicron remains sensitive to the vaccine, but less than Delta. That's why you need a third dose of the vaccine to help protect you from serious illness and hospitalization.Unfortunately, even three doses don't protect against the infection itself. If you've been vaccinated three times and still become infected, you'll often hardly notice it: You may have a "<a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/omicron-symptoms-cough-runny-nose-mild-us-europe-cdc-2021-12">common cold,</a>" a sore throat, and sometimes a fever. So I know you're all lining up for your boosters and you're doing the right thing. Sometimes you don't feel anything at all and yet the virus is in your body for a few days and can be transmitted to other people. If you then infect someone who hasn't been vaccinated or who is vaccinated but is weakened, that person can become seriously ill with COVID-19. Not only very frail or old people are sensitive, but also middle-aged people with obesity, high blood pressure, chronic bronchitis, and diabetes, and even some apparently perfectly healthy youngsters or even children.A third shot of the vaccine is therefore important to protect yourself against disease. But even if you get a third shot, you can still transmit the Omicron virus and possibly make someone else ill. That's why we should all stick to the measures below because we know they greatly reduce the spread of each variant of the virus:<ol><li>Keep your distance and wear a face mask correctly when you're indoors with people who don't belong to your core family: at school, in the office, in a shop, on the public transport, in the town hall, and so on.</li><li>Constantly ventilate rooms where you're together with many people with fresh air. You can do so by opening a window at home or by installing an <a href="https://www.insider.com/guides/home/best-air-purifier">air purifier</a> (they're sold online and in many shops). </li><li>Wash your hands regularly.</li><li>Definitely don't cough or sneeze in front of others, and make sure to keep your mask on when you speak. Sneezing, coughing, or speaking loudly to someone are the three most likely ways in which virus particles can spread and infect others. </li></ol>If any of you have had close contact with an infected person, the rules of testing and quarantine (isolating yourself for one to two weeks) absolutely apply. That's also the case if any of the kids or your partners are infected. I know you'll have a lot of social contacts, so please be careful and follow those best practices. As we will soon see each other for the holidays, it's not always possible to strictly follow all these rules. For example, if we're going to eat and drink together, you can't always wear your face mask and socially distance if you're in a small room. Then it's really recommended that all people who plan to come together (including the children) do a self-test beforehand to make sure that no one would unknowingly become infected with the virus and spread it. This is very important if there are people who are old or weak — then everyone should certainly be tested. (Your mom and I don't consider ourselves old and weak, but we're now in our late sixties and early seventies, so we have to be careful, too, and we'll get tested tomorrow ahead of the Christmas get-together.) It's all annoying, but we live in a period when a dangerous virus is among us. It will remain that way all winter.What then is the prospect?<ol><li>The major vaccine companies are <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/moderna-modified-covid-vaccine-for-omicron-potentially-out-next-year-2021-11">already working on a new vaccine</a> specifically against Omicron. It could be ready as early as March and distributed shortly afterwards.</li><li>We can be confident that the situation in the summer of 2022 will improve, just like in 2020 and 2021. That means we have something positive to look forward to in the near future.</li><li>Because more and more people have been vaccinated and/or infected, the <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/delta-variant-herd-immunity-90-percent-2021-8">herd immunity</a> (the resistance of all people through their antibodies) increases. </li><li>The virus can't <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/how-much-worse-can-coronavirus-get-omicon-variants-2021-12">endlessly create new strong variants</a>, so it will eventually weaken and behave more like the flu virus.</li></ol>This pandemic will pass, just like the Spanish Flu a hundred years ago, but no one can predict when. I hope with all of you that this is our last COVID-19 winter, but I'm only a doctor and a scientist — and a father and grandfather — not a prophet …Take care, and let's hope we can still get together for the holidays, albeit extremely carefully, Dad Guido Vanham, medical doctor and specialist in virology and immunology

Read the letter a virologist sent his family on how to best protect themselves from the Omicron variant

<ul class="summary-list"><li><keyword id="9074771" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="guido-vanham">Guido Vanham</keyword> is a <keyword id="3223372" type="PERSON" weightage="60" keywordseo="virologist">virologist</keyword> who's been sending letters to his three adult children throughout the <keyword id="43587" type="ORGANIZATION" weightage="60" keywordseo="pandemic">pandemic</keyword>.</li><li>The text of his most recent letter is printed below with permission from his son <keyword id="10321410" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="peter-vanham">Peter Vanham</keyword>.</li><li>He's hopeful for an "open" summer but says the next 12 to 18 months could see another surge, especially as new variants emerge.</li></ul>Dear Nele, Johan, and Peter, I can't believe it's been a year since we went into lockdown, and we've been confronted with the COVID pandemic. It's been a difficult year, for sure, but also one in which we learned a lot, individually, as a family, and as society. And though it feels like we may be going through another lockdown, we should be confident that this ordeal too, "we shall overcome." First things first: I got my first dose of the COVID vaccine last week! It's now been a few days, and I feel physically very good. The ease and professionality with which it was administered in our nearby vaccination centre, makes me wonder why some people are so hostile towards receiving these vaccines. They are safe and effective, and I think that ramping up their rollout will be the best way to decrease vaccine hesitancy, which is a real problem here in Europe. It's not that the public or experts should not ask critical questions. To the contrary.<h2>As coincidence has it, I received the AstraZeneca vaccine.</h2>I too was initially very sceptical about it: Its early clinical trial results raised more questions than they answered for experts like myself. But! Both its safety and efficacy have now been proven, with additional evidence from its widespread administration in the UK. Of course, like any active medication, the present vaccines have side effects and indeed, I felt some ache and some malaise the day after, but if that's what can keep me out of a crowed ICU in respiratory distress, I'm happy to endure it. I wish that people would come to accept the scientific insights on this virus, and that they stop spreading conspiracy theories or opposing public health measures.I understand that people are afraid of the unknown, and certainly of pathogens that disrupt our lives. I saw it in the '80s and '90s, when I was researching HIV/AIDS. To this day there are some communities who believe the disease is made up, or caused by sins. But the reality is: Those false beliefs will make the situation worse, not better. While HIV/AIDS was a death sentence in the eighties, it has become a preventable and treatable condition, but that took a few decades, with lots of progress in scientific understanding and social acceptance. For SARS-CoV-2, it will not take that long to reach a viable co-existence with this new virus. <h2>Meanwhile, the real threat of the virus is still with us.</h2>We're clearly entering a third wave here in Belgium. Johan and Roxane, Nele and Jeffrey: I know that as parents you are afraid, because in our neighborhood alone, six primary schools were recently closed because of outbreaks, and our health system is "flooded" with COVID requests for testing and very ill people, now mostly in their fifties and sixties. That's a real problem. As this wave intensifies, lockdowns may again become necessary, and our social and economic life and mental wellbeing may again suffer. But there is a silver lining. In countries such as Israel, the UK, or the US, vaccination campaigns have taken place much faster than here, and they clearly work! They're already achieving a rapid decrease of infections, hospitalizations, and deaths in vaccinated elderly. That is very encouraging to see. We should hope production of the vaccine elsewhere can be ramped up too, for example through partnerships among producers, because production constraints are currently the real bottle neck in our vaccination drive. <h2>So can we hope that this nightmare will be over soon? </h2>At least for summer, we can be hopeful. Looking back at this past year, it's remarkable how similar the evolution of the current COVID pandemic in Europe has been to that of the Spanish Flu a hundred years ago. Then too, three waves occurred, and the last one ended in the spring of 1919. It should give us hope for a similar scenario for COVID, where the worst of the pandemic is over by summer. Just like last year, summertime will bring more outdoor activities, with natural ventilation and thus a positive seasonal effect.But as a <keyword id="9662" type="POSITION" weightage="60" keywordseo="Scientist">scientist</keyword>, I should say that this only holds true for the near future. Looking further ahead, the scenarios do differ. First of all, new variants have been discovered in the UK, US, South Africa, and Brazil. Not only do several of them appear to be more contagious and cause more disease; some of them can also partly evade the immunity built up through vaccination. The British variant luckily can still be controlled by the present generation of vaccines. But the so-called South-African variant, in particular, seems able to escape "neutralizing" antibodies. While this variant is not yet prevalent now, it's already around and may take over the epidemic by the end of the summer. <h2>This scenario of more problematic variants emerging as time goes by is quite likely for the near future, that is to say, the next 12 to 18 months.</h2>Thus, I would not yet declare victory after this wave ends, people have been vaccinated, and we have a relatively "open" summer. We've had three waves, and we can have a fourth one. We have already a handful of mutations, and we are sure to see many more. That's the nature of viruses, I'm afraid. I don't want to sound too downbeat by making such predictions. We can adapt! The best response, for society, is to adapt our lifestyle for at least a few years: re-arrange offices and schools to maintain social distance, structurally improve ventilation, and wear face masks, in times of epidemic. Those "non-pharmacological interventions" (NPI) will bring us a far way to prevent severe lockdowns and will keep businesses and schools open. The same is true for some public health policies. To prevent infections, illness, and death, it's crucial to detect COVID early. That can now be achieved by mass testing, for example every week for people, who, professionally or otherwise, have lots of social contacts. That wasn't the case last year. Rapid tests are increasingly available, even for easy use in schools or offices. We should plan to use them nonstop in the near future. And, novel treatment possibilities are emerging as well. While they cannot substitute for vaccines and NPI, newly developed antiviral drugs will be able to block the virus entering the cells, inhibit its multiplication, or reduce the hyper-inflammation triggered by the virus if they are administered early. These drugs may help to keep COVID patients out of the hospital and improve chances to survive, so that we can avoid the crowding of hospitals and the millions of COVID deaths, even if new waves hit us. <h2>Over time - in the next five years or so - yet more positive scenarios arise.</h2>The virus may become like the flu, in the sense that different variants could appear each year, but that our ability to develop vaccines against them will evolve each year too. If we manage to develop "booster" vaccines to stop the spread of new COVID each Fall and Winter, the outcome may be that we return to quasi normal public life. To alleviate the transition towards that scenario, we should hope that more pharmaceutical companies become active in either developing vaccines, or simply producing them under license for those who have already developed them.It will be a profitable business for them, and a costly one for public health systems, but the pay-off for society is clearly bigger: It would help us "live" with the virus. Finally, another possible future scenario over the longer run is that the virus becomes like many of the other coronaviruses that have spread globally: those that give us a cold, or otherwise cause temporary lung and throat problems.Those other coronaviruses are unpleasant and may lead to sickness, but rarely cause death, and can be treated without the need for vaccines or mass lockdowns. The coronavirus we're now facing - SARS-CoV-2 - is still a young, wild virus today, very new in the human community. The pressure we exert on it by building up immunity after infection and vaccination, confronting and taming new variants, may finally drive the virus into a "domesticated" direction. You see, there are many possible outcomes. I won't make predictions about which scenario will materialize in what time frame, because that is simply not possible. But what we can change for the better, is our individual and societal response and resilience. We now have a fully year of experience. Let's be smart about the lessons learned, and apply them. I dedicated my life to fighting new viruses, and the progress we made is incredible. If we do that again for COVID … we shall overcome! DadGuido Vanham, MD, PhD, is the former head of virology at the Institute for Tropical Medicine in Antwerp, Belgium. His son, Peter Vanham, is the head of the International Media Council at the World Economic Forum and a member of its COVID-19 task force. He lives in Geneva, Switzerland.

One of Belgium's top virologists is hopeful for this summer. He outlines 3 scenarios for what life might look like as vaccinations ramp up.

<ul class="summary-list"><li><keyword id="9074771" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="guido-vanham">Guido Vanham</keyword> is a <keyword id="3223372" type="PERSON" weightage="60" keywordseo="virologist">virologist</keyword>, a microbiologist who studies the rapid spreading of viruses, who's been sending letters to his three children throughout the coronavirus pandemic.</li><li>The text of his most recent letter is printed below with permission from his son, <keyword id="10321410" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="peter-vanham">Peter Vanham</keyword>.</li><li>In it, Guido Vanham writes that he's optimistic about the latest major vaccine trial updates but warns that if history and previous viruses are any guide, the toughest time, winter, is still ahead of us. </li><li>He advises a combination of four "imperfect" measures that together lead to near perfection: wearing a mask, keeping distance, ventilating the airflow, and reducing your time of interaction. </li></ul>Dear Nele, Johan, and Peter, It's been a rollercoaster few weeks, hasn't it? The bad <keyword id="6355005" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="news">news</keyword> has been that we've been facing a severe second peak in infections here in Europe, and a similar evolution is underway elsewhere. But there's good news too: Several <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/pfizer-says-coronavirus-vaccine-effective-will-submit-to-fda-eua-2020-11">vaccine candidates seem to be very effective</a> and may arrive early next year. As we hunker down for the winter, and we unfortunately again can't see each other anymore for the <keyword id="6372423" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="holidays">holidays</keyword> — your mom and I are an at-risk group, because of our age — I wanted to remind you of a couple of measures we can take to reduce our risk of getting sick, or infecting others, until a safe vaccine is here. <h2>I do believe there is now a light at the end of the tunnel.</h2>Two pharmaceutical companies said this week their vaccine candidates are very effective against the new coronavirus. The companies — <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/pfizer-coronavirus-vaccine-success-plans-for-emergency-approval-fda-2020-9">Pfizer/BioNTech</a> and <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/moderna-coronavirus-vaccine-works-to-prevent-covid-19-company-says-2020-11">Moderna</a> — announced that early trial results indicate an effectiveness of their vaccine of over 90%. And that is very positive indeed. But what does their statement mean in practice? What these companies announced is the preliminary results of the phase 3 human trials of their vaccines candidates. The phase 3 trials are the last test phase, and in it, many thousands of people got either the vaccine (group A), or a placebo (group B), and were then screened for a couple of months as they returned to their regular lives, to see if they got <keyword id="8763838" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="covid-19">COVID-19</keyword>. In both trials, about 100 of the people who participated got COVID-19. But what matters, for "effectiveness" evidence reasons, is that only a handful (5-10) of those who tested positive, belonged to the group A who was effectively vaccinated against the virus. The other 90 or so had had the placebo, and thus weren't protected. From there, the companies conclude that their vaccines are 90-95% effective against COVID-19. Why can they make that conclusion? Well, think about it. Group B — the control group in the trial — effectively got no protection against the virus, because they got a placebo. If 90 people among them got the virus, you'd expect that a similar number of people in any other random group of similar size would also get the virus. But, of those in group A, only 5 to 10 got the virus. The (reasonable) assumption then is that the vaccine protected all others: 80-85 people out of 90 people didn't catch the virus = approx. 90-95% effective protection thanks to the vaccine. Read more: <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/eu-covid-young-people-coronavirus-lockdown-generation-european-youth-forum-2020-11">COVID-19 threatens to create a 'lockdown generation' in Europe: Here's why young people could be the ones paying for yet another crisis</a><h2>You can of course ask yourself: If the vaccine works, why would anyone still get infected? </h2>That's a fair question, and the answer is that not all humans have the same immune system. Vaccinology, just as most medical <keyword id="41551" type="ENTERTAINMENT" weightage="100" keywordseo="science">science</keyword>s, is not an exact science like mathematics. But what matters in this quest for a vaccine — what is crucial — is that they are well over 50% effective. The figures from Pfizer and Moderna, at first view, look better than for instance the flu vaccine (but still may be lower than the very effective "childhood vaccines" such as measles and tetanus).So, is 90% effectiveness good or really good? I'd say it's really good, because it helps us fight the virus in two important ways: One, it protects 90% of those injected, with either no or only minor negative side effects (because that was an important step in the vaccine tests too — that they're safe and don't make you sick). And two, the more people are vaccinated, the less the virus can circulate, and the less chances that someone without a vaccine can still get infected, too. <h2>In fact, vaccines are regarded by many virologists as the only ethical way — and the most effective way — to achieve the infamous "herd immunity." </h2>If enough people get vaccinated, then we form effectively a human shield — or "herd" — for others. The other way to achieve herd immunity is where everyone gets the virus, some may get sick or die, and the rest then develops antibodies. But that's seen as unethical because it leads to deaths and suffering, and overflowing hospitals. In addition, quite a few people who got infected in the first wave and developed antibodies, nevertheless got infected again during the second wave. Unfortunately, coronaviruses in general are known to induce only temporary immunity. Whether any of the vaccines will induce long-lasting protection or regular "reminders" will be needed (like we have with the annual flu shot) also remains to be seen. So far, it looks as if we will have a good vaccine soon, but it's not a "magic bullet" and we should not forget about the simple and cheap "non-pharmacological measures" that can protect us from getting COVID in the meantime as well.<h2>So I also want to remind you, as you spend much more time inside now that the weather is getting cold, that there are "imperfect" ways to protect yourself before any vaccine is here. </h2>And that will be important, because if history and previous viruses are any guide, the toughest time is still ahead of us. With the Spanish Flu, and with many other viruses, most people got infected, and got sick or even died, during the winter season. For us, that highest risk season is now. So what can you do? Well, I'd advise a combination of four imperfect measures. Together, they lead to near perfection. They are wearing a mask, keeping distance, ventilating the airflow, and reducing your time of interaction. Many people may argue against any of these measures because they are only partially effective in stopping the spread of the virus. But what you should now is that even "half effective" measures exponentially get better when combined. Consider the case where two people meet in a room, one person is infected, and not taking any measures would lead to 100% chance of transmission. And consider that each individual measure taken reduces infection risk by 50%. Then<ul><li>Not doing anything = 100% chance of infection </li><li>Infected person wears mask = 50% chance of infection </li><li>Non-infected person wears mask = 50% chance of infection </li><li>Ventilation = 50% chance of infection </li><li>Keeping distance = 50% chance of infection </li></ul>If you combine the measures, however, something interesting happens: 1 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 = 0.0625 or approximately 6% chance of infection is left! And consider now that many of these measures can protect by more than 50%. With for example 75% reduction in infection rate for each measure, the combined risk of infection drops to 1 x 0.75 x 0.75 x 0.75 x 0.75 = less than 0.1%. Read more: <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/action-plan-employee-gets-coronavirus-tell-staff-email-template-2020-4">The steps to take if an employee contracts coronavirus, including the emails you should be sending to your team to calm concerns</a><h2>There's a similar logic at play in the length of time you meet someone, or the kinds of interactions you have with them. </h2>Peter, remember how I told you that it was OK to play football outdoors back in September, but that you needed to stay out of the locker room? That's because in the outdoors, any kind of particles evaporate in seconds, whereas they'll keep "hanging around" for hours in a small confined space with moreover many people in it. <div type="image" title="Peter Vanham and Guido Vanham" height="469" width="625" msid="79376355" hostid="261"></div>You can look at it another way too. Each time you breathe, you breathe out millions of particles, and when you're infected, some of them will contain the virus. For you to infect another person, these virus particles have to travel quite a way: first, from the breath of one person through the air, then into the air you breathe, and then into your lungs, where they may or may not attach to your blood cells and then start to spread from there. If you're infected, you're a foot away from someone else, and you cough straight into their face, you can be quite sure the virus particles will manage to get to susceptible cells in their throat or lungs and infect them. In fact, Nele, when I got a cold a few weeks ago, I'm quite sure I got it from Miles, who had a cold, and sneezed in my face when we were playing. It scared me a bit at the time, and we again stopped seeing the grandchildren when cases went up, but fortunately it wasn't COVID-19. But the situation is immediately very different when you're further apart from someone, the person doesn't sneeze or cough, or does so while wearing a mask, you too wear a mask, and you're in a ventilated space, where air continuously refreshes. So that's what I advise that you do in the coming months. Don't stop your lives, but take many imperfect measures, because they can protect you and those around you. <h2>This is how we get through the winter, and then onto spring. </h2>I know the holiday season is coming, and we would all very much like to see you for it. But as you've gathered by now, as a scientist, I tend to favor rationality over sentimentality in these measures. A long holiday dinner, inside, and with many people, is about as risky of a situation I can imagine for us. The odds are good when we take many partial measures, but for many healthy holidays ahead spent together the odds are even better when we skip just one holiday spent all together now. Stay safe, and speak soon, Dad Peter Vanham is head of the International Media Council at the World Economic Forum, and a member of its COVID-19 Taskforce. He lives in Geneva, Switzerland.Guido Vanham, MD, PhD, is the former head of virology at the Institute for Tropical Medicine in Antwerp, Belgium.

One of Belgium's top virologists offered his family 4 tips for surviving the long COVID-19 winter — read the full letter he wrote them

Why a coronavirus vaccine won't be ready for public distribution until 2021, according to a top virologist

Courtesy of Peter VanhamPeter Vanham (right) poses with his mother, Ann Kellens, and his father, the virologist Guido Vanham.<ul class="summary-list"><li>Peter Vanham is the head of the International Media Council at the World Economic Forum and a member of its COVID-19 task force.</li><li>His father, Guido Vanham, is a Belgium-based virologist, a microbiologist who studies the rapid spreading of viruses. </li><li>Guido Vanham sent another letter to his three children on why the coronavirus is still a public health crisis, and how important it is to embrace this new normal.</li><li>The text of that letter is printed below with permission.</li><li><a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/?hprecirc-bullet">Visit Business Insider's homepage for more stories</a>.</li></ul>It's becoming a tradition that my dad, my family and I e-mail and Zoom each other to talk about the latest developments in our lives and about <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/read-what-a-virologist-is-telling-family-coronavirus-guido-vanham-2020-3">the latest findings on the new coronavirus</a>. This week, my sister and her boys finally went to visit grandma and grandpa (though they kept their distance!), we all got worn out because of the lockdown, and my dad was asked to become a scientific reader of papers on COVID-19.<h2>Here's what I learned, and what my dad told us. </h2>Dear Nele, Johan and Peter, We spent another week in isolation. I know it's hard for everyone, and for Maxim and Miles (the grandchildren) especially. When you came by our house this week before you went to feed the ponies, the boys were saying "We want to come in." It was very frustrating for them - and for us - that they couldn't come in after such a long time. But we all laughed at the solution we found: that we would wave at Maxim and Miles from the window on the second floor, and that grandma also went to the ponies but the children stayed behind the fence. We loved seeing each other! <h2>Now, it's clear that despite everyone hoping for an end to the lockdown, this is not something we can expect yet. </h2>I know a lot of people are still saying that the public health reaction we're seeing is exaggerated, or that we must go back to work. But I don't agree at all. Around the world, the intensive care units of hospitals are filled with people with the same disease and symptoms, namely an acute respiratory disease. That's not normal. Some people minimize this. They say there are other coronaviruses around, and that much is true. But this novel one, COVID-19, is highly infectious, and leads to very severe illnesses and many deaths. We can't minimize this. Courtesy of Peter VanhamGuido Vanham.<h2>This is still a public health crisis.</h2>To understand this, look again at the numbers from <a href="https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/">Worldometer</a>. It starts with good news. By now, in most of Europe, the number of new cases seems to be flattening, as lockdowns have been in effect for two weeks or more: In Belgium the daily cases are around 1,500, in Switzerland about 1,000, and in Spain and Italy about 5,000. In the US, the curve <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-live-updates-latest-news">is still going up</a>.But to understand why ending the lockdown isn't possible yet, you should look at some other numbers: namely, the "active" cases and the "severe or critical" cases. Those are the people in the hospitals needing ICU treatment, and their number is still increasing significantly! As long as they are going up in numbers, hospitals are over capacity, and we shouldn't expect measures to be relaxed: It would mean risking much more dead. <h2>You can drill down these numbers for any country to understand the situation better.</h2> For the United States, for example, the data tell us the worst is yet to come. You see a high number of cases for the USA these days, around 15,000 to 20,000 new ones per day, but so far, relatively few dead and severely ill. But the epidemic there started in earnest much later, so you can expect that there will be an explosion of severely ill and dead in the next few weeks. The first symptoms typically come after about seven days, and in the next week, people that have symptoms can become severely ill. So many of those infected in the past week will only become severely ill in the coming days, and need treatment. The idea that a reopening of their country by Easter is feasible, is even less realistic than in Europe. (And in Europe, I wouldn't expect a return to normal for months). <h2>There is, however, hope and progress on the horizon.</h2>To get to a fundamental solution, we need first and foremost to test more people, and that's now increasingly happening all over the world. In Belgium, testing will increase five-fold from <a href="https://www.brusselstimes.com/belgium/103184/use-testing-to-determine-who-may-go-back-to-work/">2,000 a day to 10,000</a>. In Germany, as much as <a href="https://www.thelocal.de/20200326/germany-ramps-up-coronavirus-tests-to-500000-a-week">500,000 people are now being tested</a> per week. And in the US, more tests are becoming available as well, though until recently it only tested very little. That's crucial, because when we test more, we'll understand the disease better, including how it spreads and who spreads it. Right now we still only know quite little about this disease, as it started less than three months ago! But the more tests we do, and the more people we can track, the more evidence-based insights virologists and epidemiologists will gather, and the more governments can fine tune measures to get back to work and school. <h2>It should be possible to scale the tests further, though it is not simple and not fun. </h2>You know how the test works? You have to go deep inside the nose and the throat, to collect the specimen required, and then you need to send the sample to a lab, where a device induces an RNA-based reaction. If the reaction happens, you're positive. The actual test takes a few hours, but the whole process can last up to 72 hours, depending on the efficiency of the logistics. A new test is being developed, and it takes less time: It's doesn't require testers to go into the nose and throat, or to induce the RNA reaction. But it looks like it will miss 40% of the positives, and that's not acceptable at this point. So in reality, we can't yet do tests on every person, every week, for example, to get them to work. It's too early for that. <h2>Getting back to normal life, therefore, isn't possible for another few months. </h2>We better prepare for that. Of course, there is now also an economic crisis, but I would add, there is an educational crisis too. Children, like Maxim and Miles, are being suspected of being so-called "asymptomatic spreaders", and even "super-spreaders." But as a scientist I should make clear: This is still an assumption. I have not seen any evidence that children play an important role in the spread of the virus in scientific studies. Of course, that doesn't mean they don't. It just means there is no evidence yet. It is sure that children can get infected, few get sick, but one important question is, if they are infected, how much virus do they produce, and is that enough to infect others? The truth is, we don't know. What you could do is look how many teachers have been infected, because they spend more time with children. That's not easy, as their social life can't be isolated from their teaching role. But that would be what's needed to find out what the role of children is. <h2>So what should we do? </h2>If everyone goes back to work as soon as the "curve bends downwards," it's guaranteed you'll get a second wave of infections. So my suggestion would be to send children back to school first, as soon as the number of new infections has come down a lot, on condition that their parents have not been ill recently. From a health perspective, there are less health risks for children, and also for teachers, on condition that they are careful. That way the pressure on parents and grandparents is relieved. Parents could work more productively again, even if they tele-work. Right now, they're at home and have to work as well as homeschool. That clearly can't work for a longer time. If we can already ensure that parents like you, Nele, are able to work well from home, that would already improve your and others' productivity. <h2>As a next step, when the epidemic is well controlled, you could look at opening workplaces again, if they can be redesigned to accommodate for social distancing.</h2> It's clear that this virus is a very infectious one, so that will be a crucial element. In China, I saw an example of workers in a factory, sitting on stools two meters apart while having their lunch break. That doesn't look like a lot of fun, but it is a way of getting up and running again. It certainly is pretty unrealistic to organize any mass events for the next six months. But you could in a few weeks try to open restaurants and stores, but then in a way that people keep their social distance. Because those people who have restaurants, like your friend Tom, they're drowning. It may mean for Tom that he can only receive one third of his usual clientele, but at least he could open again. As for me, I'm as busy as I ever was post-retirement. I'm starting to review more and more papers on COVID-19. Many of my "frontline colleagues" don't have time for that, so I send some 60 to 70 colleagues from around the world - Belgium, France, Uganda, China - summaries of my findings. There are some interesting ones every day. I read one paper on mammals and COVID-19 virus. Cats, dogs, hamsters, and pangolins (but not mice) apparently have a very similar receptor for the virus as in humans, so they might get infected. And indeed, there are two cases of dogs in Hong Kong and one cat in Belgium that actually got the virus, most likely through their owner, but it's assumed they cannot pass it on. You see: There are a lot of gaps still in our scientific knowledge.COVID-19 also leads me to another career: I've also been asked to become a scientific reader for a manuscript on COVID-19 morbidity among diabetic patients. I'm happy to do it, and I'll be able to do it, as I have been trained in internal medicine and reviewing manuscripts on HIV for 30 years. However, the COVID-19 virus is new for me too, and the way it spreads is very different from HIV. So, it is fascinating to unexpectedly start this "virtual career" on a brand new virus after my retirement. Oh, and one more thing. I certainly don't want to suggest anything, but for pregnant women, so far there has been no additional negative consequence observed for their pregnancy. One thing to watch out for though: Newborns that get infected after birth have a higher chance to develop symptoms and illness than older children. So for your friends who do have newborn babies, tell them to be very, very careful. Though I'm sure they would anyway. Have a good week, Dad Guido Vanham Do you have a personal experience with the coronavirus you'd like to share? Or a tip on how your town or community is handling the pandemic? Please email <a href="mailto:covidtips@businessinsider.com">covidtips@businessinsider.com</a> and tell us your story.And get the latest <a href="/coronavirus-business-impact">coronavirus analysis and research</a> from Business Insider Intelligence on how COVID-19 is impacting businesses. <h3>NOW WATCH: <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/what-its-like-to-do-your-own-taxes-for-the-very-first-time-2018-2">Tax Day is now July 15 - this is what it's like to do your own taxes for the very first time</a></h3>

Read the letter my dad, a top virologist, wrote our family about signs of progress around COVID-19 - and why we can't end the lockdown anytime soon

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Peter Vanham lives in Geneva, Switzerland and is the head of the International Media Council at the World Economic Forum and a member of its <keyword id="8763838" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="covid-19">COVID-19</keyword> Taskforce. </li><li>His father, Guido Vanham, is a Belgium-based virologist, a microbiologist who studies the rapid spreading of viruses. </li><li>Guido Vanham sent a letter to his three children with tips for how to combat 'fatigue' from following COVID-19 restrictions and for how to stay safe as areas of the world begin to reopen.</li><li>He advises taking off masks when outdoors and away from crowds, opening windows as much as possible, and shielding children from <keyword id="91743" type="PERSON" weightage="60" keywordseo="lockdown">lockdown</keyword>: 'Kids need to go to school.'</li><li>The full text of his letter is shared below, with permission from Vanham's son, Peter.</li></ul><ul class="summary-list"></ul>Dear Peter, Johan and Nele, I hope you are all well. It is so good to hear you all doing so well. Johan, Roxane, Nele, and Jeffrey, we're happy to see the kids back in school, and Peter and Valeria, it's good that you are doing so well in Geneva. It's been about half a year since the COVID <keyword id="43587" type="ORGANIZATION" weightage="60" keywordseo="pandemic">pandemic</keyword> started, and I understand you must have "COVID fatigue" by now. So let me offer you some advice and tips on how to go about your daily lives in the coming months. It's needed, I reckon, because we still have a way to go.First, I want to warn you to not react with extreme thoughts or debates. You may think it's "annoying" to have to wear masks in more places again now that confirmed cases are rising again, or be asked to see less people, or to stay away from crowded indoor spaces. You may think that the risk of this "second wave" becoming more deadly is overblown. Or you may think the opposite — that we should lock down all social life again, including schools, workplaces, and restaurants. You're free to think all of these things. <h2>But remember: The virus doesn't think. We cannot make a "compromise" with this virus. </h2>The virus doesn't negotiate about its conditions for spreading, and it doesn't make concessions after six months just because you've already given up a lot of your social life for a lengthy amount of time. It also doesn't care about politics, or about arguments in either direction. It is quite the opposite: It will find the "weakest link" in our defense to it, and spread again from there. There are two characteristics about the transmission of this virus that are particularly annoying.<ul><li>First, it does not only spread by droplets from coughing or sneezing (that fall down within a meter and a half or six feet), but also by small aerosols, produced by speaking, that can float in the ambient air unless dispersed. </li><li>Second, many people who remain without symptoms can spread the virus. Some of these are in fact becoming so-called "super spreaders," infecting, unknowingly and inapparently, sometimes dozens of others.</li></ul><h2>So let's continue to be vigilant, all while restarting our social, educational, and professional lives. </h2>And if you don't want strictly following government orders on the virus, or adapt to ever changing rules, but you do want to help contain the virus, here are a couple of measures you can take for yourself in the coming months, and until there is an effective vaccine or treatment. <ul><li>Wear a mask that fits your face well and has a filter; that way it becomes more effective. It's abundantly clear that wearing an effective mask is the single best measure against getting or transmitting the virus, while maintaining public life. But masks aren't all the same! Some will be too large, leaving an opening on the side, whereas others may not have a double layer and filter, which is crucial to make it effective. So choose ones that are best adapted to your face, and that don't leave any unfiltered air in or out. And remember to wear them over your mouth and nose — this will truly make a difference. Even if masks don't fully stop transmission of the virus, they can stop most of the virus particles, and that matters: If you get only a small amount of virus, the virus multiplication will take longer to become harmful, giving your body more time to set up immune defense mechanisms. It can ultimately mean the difference between mild and heavy symptoms — or life and death. </li><li>Wear your mask indoor or wherever large crowds gather outdoors; feel free to take it off elsewhere. There is now enough evidence to suggest that virus particles disappear much, much quicker in open air than in closed spaces. So Peter, I wouldn't stress too much about outdoor activities with others, such as running or soccer, as long as you don't get close to others when they yell or cough. But when you're at the office with others, or in the bus or subway, keep a distance, wear your mask, and disinfect your hands. </li><li>Meet outdoors and open windows as much as you can, both in your social and work life. We were very happy to come visit you in Switzerland, going for hikes in the mountains and enjoying time together. Although we're older, and therefore more at risk, we felt comfortable, as we were mostly outdoors, and when we sat down, windows were always open. So if you're looking for a balance in your social and professional life, let that be your focus as well. And if opening windows isn't possible, inquire about the air circulation (for example: is it fed with fresh air or are efficient carbon filters in place?), and wear a mask diligently. </li><li>Put the children first. If anyone needs to be shielded from a next "lockdown," it's them. Nele and Johan, I know this has become a heated debate, but please put the wellbeing of the children first. Kids need to go to school, and while they are unlikely to get sick, of course they can become virus "vectors." But the answer can't be to put them in lockdown again. At their age, they need to learn. So if we need to take stricter measures again, let it be us, as adults, who lock down. You can tele-work; for children, it's much harder to tele-learn. </li></ul><h2>I also want to give you an update on the situation in hospitals, treatments, and vaccines. </h2>Right now, we [in Europe] are clearly in a "second wave" in terms of infections, but much less so in terms of deaths. Why is that? Well, in our hospitals, there are mostly young people being cared for because of COVID-19 — and it is mostly the young who test positive, too. Those that do end up in hospitals are often severely ill, but survive, because their bodies can fight off the virus with rest, medical care, and if needed, oxygen supply. This is what you could call a "dangerously stable" situation. As long as older people and those with underlying conditions don't get infected in large numbers again, our hospital systems can cope and not many people will die. But right now, as could be expected, we see the numbers of older infected people rising as well.<div type="image" title="Guido Vanham with his wife Ann Kellens and son Peter." height="1512" width="2016" msid="78282357" hostid="261"></div><h2>So clearly, the situation can turn around in a matter of a few short weeks if we become careless. </h2>This for example happened in Spain, which <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/spain-latest-europe-covid-19-hotspot-spreading-faster-than-us-2020-9">went into lockdown again</a> after the situation got out of control for a second time. People got too "active" again, and inevitably, not just younger people got infected, but over time, the elderly and sick too, leading to a dramatic turnaround, and again many deaths. It can happen here too. So if you become tempted to relax your own attitude towards the virus, bear in mind that at this very moment, we don't have a vaccine, there's still only one truly effective treatment, and it is limited in supply — oxygen through respirators — and the virus can quickly start spreading exponentially again, putting at risk the most vulnerable in our population. <h2>Finally, in terms of vaccines, I share the general optimism that one or several vaccines will be available by the first half of 2021. </h2>What gives me hope is that the SARS-CoV2-virus (which causes COVID-19), looks a lot like other coronaviruses, such as SARS, for which effective (experimental) vaccines were developed. And the techniques used for other vaccines in the past, including the straightforward inactivated virus vaccine, and the vaccines targeting the "spike" of the virus, seem to be working as well. All of this means that we should be seeing vaccine candidates clearing the final hurdles by early next year. But let's immediately put some caveats. First, in terms of production and distribution, it will take months, if not years, before enough people globally can be vaccinated. In the West and China, it will be a big success if we can vaccinate enough people by the end of 2021 — more than 50% of the population need to be vaccinated to achieve "herd immunity" for the others. In other parts of the world, it will surely take several more years. So "normality" is still at least a year and a half away. And, from a virus-technical perspective, we still cannot be sure that the vaccines developed today will remain effective against the virus in a few years from now. So far, the evolution of the virus has been limited, but things could still go in various directions. <h2>A positive scenario is that the virus could "weaken," as happened with a previous porcine (swine) coronavirus. </h2>But on the negative end, the virus could evolve such that initial vaccines could become ineffective or even harmful, as happened with one feline (cat) coronavirus in the past. The positive or neutral outcome luckily seems more likely: it would mean that this coronavirus would persist, but infect the next generation of children early in their life and providing partial immunity, with mild disease, when they grow older. As of today, we can't be sure yet, so caution is advised: Let's make preventive measures our habit. That's the gist of my advice and information to you. I hope this letter is helpful to you as you're going back to school and work. And I hope it can help you fend off your worries or frustrations over the virus with measures you can take regardless of the news of the day.I'll be watching the evolution on a daily basis, because researching viruses is my passion. But for you, maybe it's good to not think about it too much, and just take those preventative measures that make you and others around you safer. Be well, Dad Guido Vanham, MD, PhD, is the former head of virology at the Institute for Tropical Medicine in Antwerp, Belgium.Peter Vanham is head of the International Media Council at the World Economic Forum, and a member of its COVID-19 Taskforce. He lives in Geneva, Switzerland.

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Read the letter my dad, a top virologist, wrote our family about signs of progress around COVID-19 - and why we can't end the lockdown anytime soon

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Read the letter one of Belgium's top virologists sent his children on how they can safely get on with their lives

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