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Economists at the country's largest lender, SBI, today said they see India's Q2 real GDP growth slowing down further to 6.5% in the September quarter of this fiscal year. Amid concerns over the country's economic growth rate and whether it is slowing down, the analysts said they expect FY25 growth to come "closer to" 7%. SBI analysts join a long line of agencies like Fitch, ADB, IMF, Moody, World Bank, S&amp;P, and even RBI in forecasting India's GDP growth for FY25 in the range of 6.8% to 7.2% for FY25, driven by robust consumption and investment. SIP inflows have been at an all-time high, and so has QIP (qualified institutional placement) fundraising. As many as 71 companies raised Rs 88,678 crore this year through QIPs. Activity in Indian primary markets also remained robust, with 78 mainboard IPOs in 2024; this is a 111% rise from just 38 listings in FY23. Between April and June 2024, India's real GDP grew by 6.7%, the lowest growth seen in 15 quarters, pushing experts to believe that India is caught in a cycle of slowdown. "There is some incipient pressure evident on the domestic economy. Based on our analysis of 50 meaningful leading indicators (both consumption and demand-centric), a dip looks plausible across select cohorts of agriculture, industry, and services in Q2," the <keyword id="22337294" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="SBI-economists" source="keywords">SBI economists</keyword> added. Stating that they track 50 indicators to gauge economic activity, SBIs note said the proportion of indicators showing acceleration declined to 69% in Q2 FY25, as against 80% in Q2 FY24 and 78% in Q1 FY25. However, things might be changing now, given that rural demand has started looking up amidst muted urban demand. SBI also explained that the ongoing regulatory tightening on unsecured lending and roadblocks that are hindering rollover/refinancing of debt through unsecured credit are dismantling the unwarranted exuberance that had built up post-pandemic, especially in the urban areas. Madhu Lunawat, CIO &amp; Fund Manager, Bharat Value Fund states that the overall investment environment remains strong due to favorable economic conditions supporting government policies &amp; reforms. "The sustainable inflow from domestic investors is going to support the Indian equity market in any kind of correction. The long-term bullish structure of Indian economy will continue to attract new domestic &amp; global investors to participate in India’s growth story through various Investment avenues.” <h2>Rate cuts not on cards</h2>RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das clarified today that changing the monetary policy stance to 'neutral' does not mean a rate cut is imminent in the central bank's next policy announcement. Notably, RBI MPC is set to meet between December 4 and 6, 2024, to decide if the prevailing repo rate of 6.5%, which has stayed unchanged for the last 2 years, should be brought down or not. In its last meeting, The <keyword id="20501100" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="RBI-monetary-policy" source="keywords">RBI monetary policy</keyword> committee had shifted its stance to 'neutral' indicating that it is open to adjusting interest rates based on economic conditions. "It should not be assumed that we have done this, so therefore the next step is a rate cut. A change in stance doesn't mean that the next step is a rate cut in the very next meeting. It's not so," Das said. Das also cautioned that inflation remains a key factor, and inflation and CPI prints for October are expected to stay high.

SBI economists see Q2 GDP growth slowing down to 6.5%; FY25 growth to be closer to 7%

India's services sector showed robust expansion in October, per the <keyword id="22267674" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="HSBC-India-Services-PMI" source="keywords">HSBC India Services PMI</keyword> (Purchasing Managers' Index), which rose to 58.5 last month, up from September's ten-month low of 57.7. October's figures managed to exceed even the long-run PMI average of 54.1, largely on the back of a strong sales pipeline and elevated demand. Employment, or job creation in this sector accelerated to its fastest growth rate in 26 months. Anticipating solid, sustained demand in the near term, firms added new employees at the most rapid pace in over 2 years. October also saw <keyword id="23834175" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="input-costs-rise" source="keywords">input costs rise</keyword> at their fastest pace in 3 months, indicating renewed demand and economic activity in the country. The ISM Services PMI, an indicator of the economic health of the US, also exceeded expectations, reaching 56.0 compared to the forecasted 53.8, suggesting strong growth within the services sector. "During October, the Indian services sector experienced strong expansions in output and consumer demand, as well as job creation, which achieved a 26-month high," said Pranjul Bhandari, Chief India Economist at HSBC. The sector saw increased business activity across multiple fronts, with export sales showing significant growth and companies reporting stronger demand from international markets including Africa, Asia, the Americas, the Middle East, and the UK. However, industry experts remain cautiously optimistic about the sector's prospects. Suman Chowdhury, Chief Economist at Acuité Ratings &amp; Research, noted that while the October recovery is promising, several factors warrant careful monitoring. “The recovery in the PMI indices in October 2024 is promising for the second half of the fiscal after the dip in several high-frequency indicators in September 2024. Industrial and service activity has expectedly received a boost from the anticipated spike in consumption demand in Q3 FY25, driven by the festivities and the marriage season," she said. Chowdhury added that it will be crucial to monitor the sustainability of these PMI indices at these elevated levels, given the reported weakness in urban demand in Q2 as flagged by FMCG companies. She also noted that potential increases in wholesale and core retail inflation, combined with higher input costs and wage pressures, could delay expected interest rate cuts. RBI governor Shaktikanta Das also noted that inflation and CPI figures for October might be elevated, pushing ahead any chances of interest rate cuts in the near future. Acuité Ratings &amp; Research maintains its GDP growth forecast at 7.0% for FY25 while acknowledging the multiple downside risks that will require close observation in the coming months.

India's Services Index jumps to 58.5 in October as employment grows the fastest in 26 months

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Disney's stock rose 8% Thursday after upbeat earnings and a rare three-year guidance update. </li><li>The company beat estimates for revenue and earnings-per-share. </li></ul><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/stocks/dis-stock">Disney</a> stock shot up 8% on Thursday after the entertainment giant reported earnings that beat estimates and surprised investors with guidance that gave a strong outlook for the next three years. The stock traded 8.4% higher around 10:45 a.m. ET, at $111.05 a share.The company beat revenue estimates for the third quarter, reporting $22.57 billion, versus estimates of $22.45 billion. Earnings per share came in at $1.14 versus estimates of $1.10.The outlook provided to investors was also a big highlight of the report. The guidance update is rare for Disney, which usually doesn't provide forward earnings forecasts. The three-year timeframe is also significant, since most companies rarely make forecasts further out than one year, and many don't provide guidance at all. The company forecasts high single-digit earnings-per-share growth for the next fiscal year and an $875 million increase in operating income for its streaming division. For the 2026 and 2027 fiscal years, the company projects double-digit earnings growth."Thanks to the significant progress we've made, we have emerged from a period of considerable challenges and disruption well positioned for growth and optimistic about our future," CEO Bob Iger said in a statement.The company's streaming unit—which includes <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/guides/tech/disney-plus-price">Disney+</a>, ESPN+, and Hulu—saw a quarterly profit of $321 million, far outpacing a loss of $387 the year prior.The profits follow years of heavy investment amid a tense <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/netflix-earnings-winning-streaming-wars-not-even-close-2024-1">streaming war</a> with competitors like <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/netflix-wins-streaming-wars-this-chart-shows-why-2024-1">Netflix</a>, Max, and Paramount+.Its TV networks, meanwhile, comprised of ABC and cable channels like the Disney Channel and Freeform, saw profits fall 38% to $498 million, while revenue dropped 6% to $2.5 billion.The company's theme park and cruise profits also slowed, falling 6% from the year before to an operating income of $1.66 billion amid rising costs after launching two <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/disney-cruise-line-expanding-new-ships-private-destination-2024-8">new cruise ships</a>, plus slowing foot traffic at international parks like Disneyland Paris.Spending and attendance at US parks remained strong, though, the company said.Bank of America analysts maintained their bullish outlook for the stock following the report. They reiterated their "buy" rating and $120 price target, which would represent almost 8% upside from current levels. "DIS has a collection of best-in-class premiere assets (in content/IP as well as Theme Parks). Near term catalysts include: 1) profitability inflection in DTC and 2) reacceleration in parks business," Bank of America analyst Jessica Reif Ehrlich wrote in a note.

Disney stock surges as rare 3-year forecast sees strong profit growth ahead 

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Chip stocks tumbled Tuesday, with NVDA and AMD down 5% and ASML plunging 16%.</li><li>The downturn came as ASML lowered its 2025 sales guidance. </li></ul>Semiconductor stocks fell Tuesday after ASML slashed guidance for next year, and as the sector mulled reports that the US was weighing a cap on chip exports from some American companies.ASML, Europe's most valuable tech company, plunged 16% in its biggest single-day drop since 1998. Other chip stocks followed, with NVDA dipping almost 5%, AMD falling 5.3%, and Broadcom tumbling 3.5% around midday Tuesday.SMCI, meanwhile, fell as much as 3.4% earlier in the day before paring most losses.The industry's downturn comes after ASML, a Dutch chip machine maker, posted a downbeat earnings report and cut its sales guidance for next year. The report's forward guidance lowered total net sales for 2025 to between €30 billion and €35 billion, the lower half of the previously stated range, citing weak demand from chipmakers for its machinery."It now appears the recovery is more gradual than previously expected. This is expected to continue in 2025, which is leading to customer cautiousness," CEO Christophe Fouquet said in a statement.ASML's third quarter bookings were €2.6 billion, coming in under half the average estimate of €5.39 billion, according to a Bloomberg survey.The report was posted a day earlier than expected, adding to the surprise of the results and lower guidance. Flows into AI stocks slowed over the summer as investors <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/big-tech-investors-wary-high-ai-spending-markets-selloff-nasdaq-2024-7?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">expressed worries</a> about returns on huge spending on AI. Investment in the sector has rebounded in recent weeks, though, <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/nvidia-stock-tests-record-highs-wall-street-defends-valuation-blackwell-2024-10?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">propelling Nvidia</a> to a fresh high on Monday to help the S&amp;P 500 hit <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-today-sp500-hits-another-record-high-q3-earnings-2024-10">another record close</a>.Reports that the US is weighing a cap on chip exports from American chipmakers only compounded the industry's tumultuous start to the week.According to <a target="_blank" href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-10-15/us-weighs-capping-exports-of-ai-chips-from-nvidia-and-amd-to-some-countries">Bloomberg</a>, the Biden administration has been in talks to cap sales of advanced AI chips from some American chip companies—including Nvidia—to certain countries in order to protect national security.The plans would likely target Persian Gulf countries, which are increasingly interested in AI, sources told the outlet, and would build on existing restrictions that originally set out to curb China's progress in AI. Previously implemented restrictions have regulated chip shipments to over 40 countries in the Middle East, Africa, and Asia to prevent chip technology from flowing to China.

Chipmakers tumble as ASML forecast cut issues a growth warning to the sector

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Semiconductor stocks rose after TSMC's strong sales forecast.</li><li>The bellwether chipmaker expects AI-product revenue to triple this year.</li></ul><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/stocks/tsm-stock?_gl=1*178bzfp*_ga*MTMxNDIwNDI1Ni4xNjc1Njg3OTU4*_ga_E21CV80ZCZ*MTcyOTE3MTczMy43MzcuMS4xNzI5MTcyMjk1LjU2LjAuMA..">Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company</a> has offered something of an antidote to the brief crisis of confidence that hit the chipmaker industry.Two days after a broad semiconductor-stock sell-off driven by a light forecast from the Dutch firm <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/chipmakers-tumble-asml-guidance-semiconductor-nvidia-chip-growth-2024-10?_gl=1*107r563*_ga*MTMxNDIwNDI1Ni4xNjc1Njg3OTU4*_ga_E21CV80ZCZ*MTcyOTE3MTczMy43MzcuMS4xNzI5MTczOTE0LjYwLjAuMA..">ASML</a>, chipmakers rallied on Thursday on TSMC's strong results. TSMC itself climbed as much as 13% in New York trading, while major industry players <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/stocks/nvda-stock">Nvidia</a>, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/stocks/avgo-stock">Broadcom</a>, and <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/stocks/mu-stock">Micron</a> each rose roughly 4% at intraday highs.The <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/etfs/ishares-semiconductor-etf-us4642875235">iShares Semiconductor ETF</a> also rose as much as 3%.TSMC's third-quarter earnings report saw the company increase its 2024 sales-growth forecast to 30%, up from previous projections of mid-20% expansion. The firm also said AI-product revenue would triple this year, making up 15% of the company's total revenue."The demand is real," CEO C.C. Wei said on the post-earnings conference call. "One of my key customers said, the demand right now is insane. It's just the beginning."The results offer a sigh of relief for an industry that briefly panicked this week after <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/chipmakers-tumble-asml-guidance-semiconductor-nvidia-chip-growth-2024-10?_gl=1*107r563*_ga*MTMxNDIwNDI1Ni4xNjc1Njg3OTU4*_ga_E21CV80ZCZ*MTcyOTE3MTczMy43MzcuMS4xNzI5MTczOTE0LjYwLjAuMA..">ASML</a> offered a far <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/chipmakers-tumble-asml-guidance-semiconductor-nvidia-chip-growth-2024-10?_gl=1*107r563*_ga*MTMxNDIwNDI1Ni4xNjc1Njg3OTU4*_ga_E21CV80ZCZ*MTcyOTE3MTczMy43MzcuMS4xNzI5MTczOTE0LjYwLjAuMA..">bleaker demand outlook</a>. TSMC is now up more than 100% year-to-date, trailing Nvidia's 182% climb but easily outpacing the iShares Semis ETF (21%) and the benchmark S&amp;P 500 (23%) over the same period.

Chip stocks rally after TSMC's strong sales forecast calms growth worries

In a rather dampened <keyword id="19915531" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="forecast" source="keywords">forecast</keyword> for the Indian economy, <keyword id="19908266" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="ICRA" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="ICRA" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="ICRA">ICRA</keyword> has forecast a sharp <keyword id="20637625" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="slowdown" source="keywords">slowdown</keyword> in India's <keyword id="19972825" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="GDP-growth" source="keywords">GDP growth</keyword>. The credit rating agency has projected a year-on-year expansion of 6.0% in <keyword id="22106354" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Q1-FY2025" source="keywords">Q1 FY2025</keyword> — the lowest in the last six quarters. In Q4 FY2024, India recorded an impressive 7.8%. The Reserve Bank of India had expected the growth momentum to continue this financial year as well. Earlier this month, the RBI governor had projected a 7.1% growth in Q1, while the growth rate for the entire financial year FY2024-25 was projected to be at 7.2%. The central bank had attributed this potential robust growth to improved agricultural activity, sustained buoyancy in services activity, healthy balance sheets of banks and corporates, thrust on capex by the government, visible signs of pick up in private investment, and improving prospects of global trade. However, RBI’s growth projections for this financial year were slightly moderated due to lower-than-anticipated corporate profitability, general government expenditure, and core industries output. As per ICRA, the sharp drop in GDP growth is primarily due to parliamentary elections and a contraction in government capital expenditure weakening urban consumer confidence. Another main cause could be the weakening urban consumer confidence, which reported a surprising downtick in the May and July 2024 rounds of the Central Bank’s Consumer Confidence Survey. “The lingering impact of last year’s unfavourable monsoon and an uneven start to the 2024 monsoon prevented a broader improvement in rural sentiment. Lower volume growth combined with diminishing gains from commodity prices weighed upon the profitability of some of the industrial sectors. The heat wave also affected footfalls in various service sectors, even as it provided a significant boost to electricity demand,” said Aditi Nayar, Chief Economist at ICRA. Despite the Q1 slowdown, ICRA expects economic activity to pick up in the latter half of FY2025, projecting an overall GDP growth of 6.8% for the full year, with a potential to exceed 7% in the second half. The agency expects decelerated growth in Gross Value Added (GVA) as well, easing to 5.7% in Q1 FY2025 from 6.3% in the previous quarter. This slowdown is primarily attributed to a decline in industrial growth, which is predicted to moderate to 6.4% from 8.4%, along with slight reductions in the services sector's growth and a modest improvement in agricultural GVA. The difference between GDP and GVA growth is expected to narrow to around 30 basis points (bps) in Q1 FY2025, down from 148 bps in the previous quarter, due to lower growth in net indirect taxes amid a rise in government subsidies. ICRA's analysis indicates that industrial GVA growth is likely to moderate in Q1 FY2025, with a slowdown in manufacturing and construction offset by growth in electricity, mining, and quarrying. Additionally, a contraction in government and state capital expenditure, along with a significant drop in new project announcements, has contributed to the overall slowdown. Manufacturing profit margins have also been under pressure due to rising global commodity prices and narrowing deflation in input costs, which, combined with slower growth in manufacturing output, suggests a deceleration in manufacturing GVA growth. In the agricultural sector, GVA growth is projected to be modest at 1.0% in Q1 FY2025, amidst declining output from most rabi and summer crops and a deficient rainfall in June 2024. With growing concerns around inflation and unemployment in India and across the world, the latest forecast could further fuel the fears around recession and slowdown in major economies. However, a much clearer picture will emerge with the actual quarterly estimates of GDP for Q1 from the National Statistical Office (NSO) next week. SEE ALSO: <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/stock-market/news/digital-initiatives-to-triple-indian-retail-borrowing-to-usd-2-5-trillion-by-2030-sp-global/articleshow/112263945.cms" data-type="tilCustomLink" target="_blank">Digital initiatives to triple Indian retail borrowing to USD 2.5 trillion by 2030: S&amp;P Global</a>

ICRA forecasts slowdown in India's economy: GDP growth expected to hit six-quarter low in Q1 FY2025

<ul class="summary-list"><li>The International Monetary Fund raised its growth forecast for the US economy to 2.8% this year.</li><li>It expects slower growth of 2.2% next year as the government cuts back and the job market cools.</li></ul>The International Monetary Fund raised its growth forecast for the US, projecting the world's largest economy would expand by 2.8% this year instead of the 2.6% it predicted in July.in its latest <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2024/10/22/world-economic-outlook-october-2024">World Economic Outlook </a>released on Tuesday, IMF staff cited stronger consumption fueled by "robust increases in real wages" and wealth effects, along with non-residential investment, as the two main reasons for the increase. However, they predicted GDP growth would slow to 2.2% in 2025 as the US government curbs its spending and the labor market cools, sapping consumption.The IMF projected global growth of 3.2% in both 2024 and 2025, virtually unchanged from its previous prediction. They underscored their latest forecast for global growth over the next five years of 3.1% was "mediocre" compared with the pre-pandemic average."Persistent structural headwinds — such as population aging and weak productivity — are holding back potential growth in many economies," the agency's staff wrote.They projected only a slight slowdown in China to 4.8% this year due to resilient net exports, and revised their April forecast for 2025 upward by 0.4 percentage points to 4.5%. They noted the Chinese government's stimulus measures "may provide upside risk to near-term growth."The UN financial agency said that growth in the euro area appears to have troughed in 2023, and it anticipates an acceleration to 0.8% expansion in 2024 driven by stronger exports, then 1.2% in 2025 on the back of improved domestic demand.IMF staff made downward revisions to its growth outlook for the Middle East, Central Asia, and sub-Saharan Africa, citing disruptions to the production and shipping of oil and other commodities as well as "conflicts, civil unrest, and extreme weather events."In contrast, they upgraded their April forecasts for emerging and developing Asia by 0.3 percentage points for both 2024 and 2025, to 5.4% and 5.0%. They cited "surging demand for semiconductors and electronics, driven by significant investments in artificial intelligence, has bolstered growth."

The IMF just raised its growth forecast for the US economy this year — but expects a slowdown in 2025

A day before the official release of India's Gross Domestic Product (<keyword id="35050" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="GDP" source="Orion">GDP</keyword>) figures for <keyword id="21593310" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Q1-FY25" source="keywords">Q1 FY25</keyword>, a report by <keyword id="20548750" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Anand-Rathi" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="Anand Rathi" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="Anand Rathi">Anand Rathi</keyword> research estimates the GDP to grow by 7 per cent, primarily driven by the robust performance of the services sector. The financial advisory firm also maintains its full-year <keyword id="19972825" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="GDP-growth" source="keywords">GDP growth</keyword> projection at 7 per cent, though it warns of potential downside risks. Utilities GVA is expected to rise by 11.5 per cent, while the construction sector has slowed due to election-related disruptions and the impact of heat. The mining sector remains strong, supported by increased coal production. The services sector is expected to be the primary driver of GDP growth in Q1 FY25. Despite reduced <keyword id="20155204" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="government-spending" source="keywords">government spending</keyword> ahead of the elections, which is likely to dampen growth in some service sectors, financial, real estate, and professional services are expected to have performed well. This performance is attributed to strong market activity and credit growth. However, the trade and transport sectors present a mixed picture, with some indicators showing improvement while others remain moderate. Overall, Services Gross Value Added (GVA) is expected to grow by 8.2 per cent in Q1 FY25. As per the report, Investment was a key growth driver in FY24, fuelled by government infrastructure projects and a real estate upswing. However, the momentum appears to have slowed in Q1 FY25 due to pre-election restrictions. Despite this, the report predicts a significant rise in government capital expenditure in the coming months, supported by greater budget allocations. The report highlights the changing dynamics of private consumption in India. FY24 saw weak consumption, especially in rural areas, with final consumption expenditure growing by just 3.8 per cent. However, as FY25 begins, there are signs of a rural revival. Indicators such as increased two-wheeler sales and improving Fast-Moving Consumer Goods (FMCG) volume growth signal a rebound in rural demand. In contrast, urban demand continues to show signs of sluggishness. The muted sales of passenger vehicles, weaker retail credit transfers, and flat Goods and Services Tax (GST) collections underscore this trend. While consumption is not expected to see a significant rise in Q1 FY25, the outlook for the remainder of the year appears positive. This optimism is bolstered by anticipated higher agricultural output and sharper government focus on rural areas. The agriculture sector is expected to post a subdued growth of 2.1 per cent in Q1 FY25, affected by scorching heat and uneven rainfall last year, which led to lower reservoir levels and hindered farming activities. However, the outlook is more promising for the remainder of the fiscal year, with better rains and improved sowing conditions expected to boost agricultural output Additionally, a rebound in stamp duty collections suggests buoyant real estate sales. Private capital expenditure, which was previously subdued, is expected to expand in FY25, driven by rising capacity utilisation and strong order books. The industrial sector, which grew by 9.5 per cent in FY24, is expected to see a shift in growth drivers in Q1 FY25. The focus is now moving towards utilities and mining, with manufacturing growth slowing. While government infrastructure projects and private capital expenditure will continue to support industrial growth, the global growth slowdown poses potential risks.

Anand Rathi anticipates Q1 FY25 GDP growth at 7%, a little lower than RBI's estimate of 7.1%

India’s Chief Economic Advisor (CEA), <keyword id="20690607" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="V-Anantha-Nageswaran" source="keywords">V Anantha Nageswaran</keyword>, remains optimistic about the nation’s economic prospects despite a slower-than-expected <keyword id="19972825" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="GDP-growth" source="keywords">GDP growth</keyword> in the second quarter of FY2024-25. Speaking at the Bharat @100 Summit hosted by Assocham, he said that the fundamental health of the economy remains robust, according to a report by aNI. Nageswaran highlighted several indicators demonstrating the economy’s resilience. “If you run through the checklist for the <keyword id="19948184" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="Indian-economy" source="keywords">Indian economy</keyword>, the health is pretty robust,” he noted, pointing to controlled levels of external debt as a share of GDP, declining non-performing assets in the banking system, and stable inflation trends. Although certain food items have caused inflationary spikes, their impact is limited within the overall consumer price index basket, he explained. The CEA praised the shift in fiscal expenditure priorities over the past seven years, with greater focus on capital investments rather than revenue spending. This reallocation, he suggested, has bolstered long-term economic stability and growth potential. India’s GDP growth for the July-September quarter was 5.4%, significantly below the Reserve Bank of India’s forecast of 7%. While this has sparked concerns among economists, Nageswaran urged against overreacting. Erratic monsoons and excessive rainfall disrupted economic activity in Q2, he explained, while global uncertainties and supply chain pressures further weighed on growth. Despite these challenges, he maintained confidence in the broader growth narrative, citing improvements in key economic metrics. For instance, India’s gross capital formation has risen from 27.3% of GDP in the second decade of the 2000s to 30.8% today. Private consumption remains steady, and exports—spanning both services and manufacturing—continue to perform well even amid challenging global conditions. Nageswaran also underscored India’s growing competitiveness in international trade. He noted that the nation’s total <keyword id="24325087" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="exports-as-a-percentage-of-GDP" source="keywords">exports as a percentage of GDP</keyword> now surpass China’s, showcasing its resilience and adaptability in a shifting global trade environment. However, he cautioned against reading too much into quarterly fluctuations, highlighting the impact of geopolitical developments such as trade restrictions from the US on critical minerals and rare earths, as well as policy shifts in China. These external factors, he suggested, are likely to persist and may continue influencing short-term economic trends. (with ANI inputs)

Indian economy is resilient despite Q2 challenges, says CEA Nageswaran

The <keyword id="20150760" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="SP-Global-Market-Intelligence" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="S&amp;P Global Market Intelligence" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="S&amp;P Global Market Intelligence">S&amp;P Global Market Intelligence</keyword> has upwardly revised <keyword id="22162557" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="GDP-forecasts" source="keywords">GDP forecasts</keyword> for <keyword id="19894886" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="China" source="keywords">China</keyword> in its latest report. But even with the revised forecast, China's GDP growth will be substantially lower than that of <keyword id="19895063" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="India" source="keywords">India</keyword>. According to S&amp;P, India's GDP is projected to grow at a rate of 6.7 per cent in 2024 and 6.3 per cent in 2025. In contrast, China's <keyword id="19931030" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="economy" source="keywords">economy</keyword> is now forecasted to grow at 5.0 per cent in 2024 and forecast moderately raised to 4.6 per cent from 4.5 per cent. The agency revised China's estimate due to policy tailwinds expected to extend into next year and a gradual improvement in private-sector sentiment within the country. However, the <keyword id="19899810" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="reserve-bank-of-india" source="keywords">Reserve Bank of India</keyword> (<keyword id="19899808" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="RBI" source="keywords">RBI</keyword>) in its monetary policy has raised the GDP forecast of India from 7 per cent to 7.2 per cent for FY25. RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das said, "The real GDP growth for the current financial year 2024-25 is projected at 7.2 per cent with Q1 at 7.3 per cent, Q2 at 7.2 per cent, Q3 at 7.3 per cent, and Q4 at 7.2 per cent. The risks are evenly balanced." RBI Governor further said that, "The GDP growth projection, we have increased it from 7 per cent to 7.2 per cent and the inflation projection, the average for the year, we have retained it at 4.5 per cent as it was in the last MPC meeting." The <keyword id="22162558" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="SP-Global-Market" source="keywords">S&amp;P Global Market</keyword> Intelligence however has lowered the growth forecasts of US, Canada, Brazil, and Japan for 2024, while it has revised upward the forecasts for China, the Eurozone, the UK, and Russia. Additionally, the <keyword id="22162559" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="global-growth-forecast" source="keywords">global growth forecast</keyword> for 2025 has edged up from 2.7 per cent to 2.8 per cent, with higher forecasts for some of the larger countries, including the US and China. Regarding Japan, the agency maintains that the next rate hike by the Bank of Japan is most likely to occur in October 2024, given the economic and inflationary headwinds. In the Asia-Pacific region, the agency predicts that real GDP growth, excluding mainland China and Japan, will remain broadly stable at 4.4 per cent in 2024 and 2025, driven by robust domestic demand and recovering exports. A pickup in overseas demand is seen as the key growth driver for the region in 2024.

S&P Global Market raised growth forecast of China, still significantly lower than India

Dear readers, As we approach yet another weekend, here are some key developments across various sectors. Nvidia has surpassed Apple to become the world’s largest company, driven by the AI boom. Meanwhile, the US Federal Reserve cut interest rates, by 25 basis points to 4.75%, the second such reduction in 2024. In the workplace, Gen Z’s approach to mental health got attention, with one employee taking a week off after a breakup. Additionally, Indian banks are expecting steady growth, despite challenges in unsecured lending. Read on for all the details! <h2>Top stories from the week </h2> Indian banks to have steady growth in earnings over next 3-4 years, fees from unsecured lending may dip, notes Jefferies report Jefferies forecasts steady earnings growth for Indian banks over the next 3–4 years, with a 13% annual loan growth rate. However, a decline in unsecured lending could reduce fee income. While net interest income is expected to grow at 12%, challenges such as rising defaults and a potential dip in rate cuts could affect profitability. Despite this, banks’ return on equity and assets remain promising. <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/finance/news/indian-banks-to-have-steady-growth-in-earning-over-next-3-4-years-fees-from-unsecured-lending-may-dip-notes-jefferies-report/articleshow/115048179.cms" data-type="tilCustomLink" target="_blank">Read more</a> Nvidia becomes world’s largest company amid AI boom, surpasses Apple in the race Nvidia has surpassed Apple to become the world’s largest company by market capitalization, driven by the AI boom. The company’s strong performance is fueled by surging demand for its chips used in AI technologies. With a market cap hitting $3.43 trillion, Nvidia continues to dominate the AI hardware sector, powering data centres and AI research. The company’s revenue growth of 122% YoY further cements its leadership in the AI space. <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/business/news/nvidia-becomes-worlds-largest-company-amid-ai-boom-surpasses-apple-in-the-race/articleshow/115003223.cms" data-type="tilCustomLink" target="_blank">Read more</a> ‘He had a breakup and took a one-week leave’: Manager shares about his Gen-Z employee, internet reacts A manager’s tweet about granting a Gen Z employee a week off for a breakup sparked widespread debate. While the manager expressed frustration over project delays, internet users defended the employee’s mental health needs, criticizing the manager’s lack of empathy. Some supported the manager’s view, pointing out generational differences in work culture. The incident went viral, furthering discussions about Gen Z’s unique workplace expectations. <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/careers/news/he-had-a-breakup-and-took-a-one-week-leave-manager-shares-about-his-gen-z-employee-internet-reacts/articleshow/115041747.cms" data-type="tilCustomLink" target="_blank">Read more</a> US Fed cuts interest rates by 25 bps, Powell notes Trump’s victory to have no impact on policy decisions The US Federal Reserve has cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 4.75%, the second such reduction in 2024. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell emphasized the Fed’s independence despite Trump’s criticism and suggested that the economic outlook remains uncertain, though the Fed is focused on inflation targets. Trump’s policies may lead to higher inflation, adding complexity to the Fed’s efforts to stabilize prices. Experts anticipate that bond yields will stabilize, benefiting emerging markets like India. <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/finance/news/us-fed-cuts-interest-rates-by-25-bps-powell-notes-trumps-victory-to-have-no-impact-on-policy-decisions/articleshow/115070690.cms" data-type="tilCustomLink" target="_blank">Read more</a> Big Tech’s winners and losers from Donald Trump’s win, according to the market After Donald Trump’s election victory, tech stocks surged, with companies like Tesla seeing significant gains. Tesla’s rise was fueled by Trump’s public support for CEO Elon Musk. Conversely, companies like Apple faced challenges due to fears over potential tariffs on China. While some, like Google, might benefit from lighter regulations, others like Meta could face political challenges. Overall, the election results reshaped market expectations for Big Tech’s future. <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/tech/news/here-are-big-techs-winners-and-losers-from-donald-trumps-win-according-to-the-market/articleshow/115067798.cms" data-type="tilCustomLink" target="_blank">Read more</a> <h2>Top web stories</h2> <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/entertainment/webstories/donald-trump-on-screen-a-look-at-his-iconic-cameos/slidelist/115045250.cms" data-type="tilCustomLink" target="_blank">Donald Trump on screen: A look at his iconic cameos</a> <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/india/webstories/8-lifestyle-mistakes-contributing-to-health-problems-in-india/slidelist/115051791.cms" data-type="tilCustomLink" target="_blank">8 lifestyle mistakes contributing to health problems in India</a> <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/travel/india/webstories/10-magical-indian-experiences-every-traveller-should-try/slidelist/115052527.cms" data-type="tilCustomLink" target="_blank">10 magical Indian experiences every traveller should try</a>

Weekend wrap: Nvidia’s AI-driven surge, Indian banks’ steady growth and more

India's retail inflation is projected to surge to 6.15% in October, exceeding the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) tolerance threshold of 6%, according to a new report by Union Bank of India. The spike is attributed to persistent <keyword id="21013592" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="food-price-pressures" source="keywords">food price pressures</keyword> and the waning of favorable base effects from the previous year. Earlier this month, RBI governor Shaktikanta Das also echoed similar sentiments and noted that the inflation print for October 2024 could stay well above 5.5%. This is why, as Das highlighted, cutting interest rates as early as December would be very early and premature The <keyword id="19999655" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Consumer-Price-Index" source="keywords">Consumer Price Index</keyword> (CPI) data for October, which will be released at 4 pm on Tuesday, as opposed to the previous practice of releasing this data at 5:30 pm on the 12th of every month, follows September's inflation reading of 5.49%, up from 3.65% in August 2024. The last time inflation breached the RBI's upper limit was in August 2023. Despite the RBI's anticipation of an October inflation "hump," the Union Bank report suggests that the magnitude of the increase might raise concerns, particularly as November's figures are also tracking at elevated levels. The bank maintains its forecast of unchanged interest rates in December's monetary policy meeting, with a modest 50 basis points rate cut cycle predicted to begin in February 2025. Food inflation remains a key driver of price pressures, with vegetables and edible oils leading the recent surge. In September 2024, India's YoY food inflation rate hit 9.24%, up from 5.66% in the month prior. However, the report projects some easing of food inflation in the January-March quarter, citing typical winter price moderation and improving prospects for rabi crops. Despite this, potential risks from food supply disruptions, imported edible oil prices, and the impact of potential trade tariff hikes will exist. The RBI, which aims to maintain retail inflation at 4%, has held the repo rate steady at 6.5% for the tenth consecutive time in its last meeting as part of its inflation containment strategy. A recent SBI report also noted that expecting rate cuts in this quarter would be immature, and easing was possible only during the first half of 2025. "Given the current estimates of FY25 real GDP growth at 7.2% and CPI at 4.50%, the RBI would quite possibly keep policy rates stable over the coming quarter at least. Emerging trends in the growth outlook would possibly determine the timing and extent of any policy easing. With near-term CPI numbers likely to stay elevated, it’s premature to consider expectations of any easing in the December review. "However, high-frequency data do validate a softness in growth data on an incremental basis. Given the anticipated aligning of CPI closer to the target over H2, a shallow easing, if any can be a reasonable possibility over H1 of CY 25", it added.

You Searched For "growth forecast" and got 12 results

SBI economists see Q2 GDP growth slowing down to 6.5%; FY25 growth to be closer to 7%

BI India Bureau

India's Services Index jumps to 58.5 in October as employment grows the fastest in 26 months

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Disney stock surges as rare 3-year forecast sees strong profit growth ahead

Kelly Cloonan

Chipmakers tumble as ASML forecast cut issues a growth warning to the sector

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Chip stocks rally after TSMC's strong sales forecast calms growth worries

Filip De Mott

ICRA forecasts slowdown in India's economy: GDP growth expected to hit six-quarter low in Q1 FY2025

Deekshith Pinto

The IMF just raised its growth forecast for the US economy this year — but expects a slowdown in 2025

Theron Mohamed

Anand Rathi anticipates Q1 FY25 GDP growth at 7%, a little lower than RBI's estimate of 7.1%

ANI

Indian economy is resilient despite Q2 challenges, says CEA Nageswaran

BI India Bureau

S&P Global Market raised growth forecast of China, still significantly lower than India

ANI

Weekend wrap: Nvidia’s AI-driven surge, Indian banks’ steady growth and more

Divyanshi Sharma

Retail inflation expected to breach 6% mark in October, says UBI Report

BI India Bureau

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