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<ul class="summary-list"><li>The global population is getting older. </li><li>The trend will lead to lower returns, earnings growth, and valuations, JPMorgan strategists say.</li></ul>The aging of the world population is expected to accelerate in the coming decades, which will likely produce bad outcomes for the stock market, JPMorgan strategists say.The strategists say that historically, an older population has led to declining returns, lower earnings growth, and weaker valuations.Over a 10-year period, a 1% increase in the number of people over 65 is correlated with a 0.92% decline in annual stock returns, the strategists calculated in a report released last week.They point mainly to slower growth and falling valuations.With an older investor base looking to save for retirement, investment capital declines, leading to less innovation. That, plus slower growth in the workforce, will have a negative impact on earnings growth, the strategists say."Domestic population aging may reduce earnings growth for several reasons. It leads to slower workforce growth, reducing domestic economic growth. There is also evidence that aging can reduce innovation and productivity growth," the strategists said.That's especially true for companies that derive revenue from international operations, the strategists say."For companies that derive more of their revenue from abroad, like multinationals, global population aging (in a GDP-weighted sense) is likely to be more consequential for earnings growth than local population aging," the strategists wrote.That means equity market indexes with small and mid-caps will likely see more impact from local population aging than those with exclusively large caps.Valuations will also take a hit, the strategists said. As the elderly empty their retirement funds, national savings decline, thus raising bond yields. Older populations also pull out of the market at higher rates, driving down stock prices.Those trends, plus lower earnings growth expectations, justify lower valuations, the strategists say.The strategists say there's one bright spot, though. That's healthcare, which older populations tend to spend more on."We find a clear positive relationship between aging and excess returns on the sector, driven entirely by faster earnings growth," the strategists said.A 1% increase in the population share of those over 65 will lead to a 0.85% increase in health care returns over a 10-year period, the strategists say.The strategists note, too, that the populating aging trend won't impact countries equally. In China, the elderly share of the population is set to increase by seven percentage points in the next decade. The US, meanwhile, will see a more moderate rise from 18.1% to 21.5%.Past reports have also warned of the aging population's impact on the economy.Earlier this year, Barclays economist Jonathan Millar said boomers, a historically large generation, are approaching <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/baby-boomer-gen-z-millennials-economy-housing-job-market-stocks-2024-2">"peak burden" on the US economy</a> in the next few years. Meanwhile, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/recession-economy-outlook-us-stock-market-ownership-old-americans-retirement-2024-1">a larger share of people over 55% owning stocks</a> in the US may be a downside risk to the market, as older investors often don't have the luxury of holding through a downturn and could exacerbate volatility by selling during market pullbacks.

The world population is growing older. That's bad news for the stock market.

<ul class="summary-list"><li>A lot of Americans are saving way more than they need to.</li><li>That's largely due to anxiety about higher costs of living, especially in retirement, experts told BI.</li></ul>Being thrifty is a full-time job, one self-professed frugal spender told Business Insider. A 32-year-old based in Michigan, she's nailed down the science of cost-cutting, whittling her necessary expenditures to just $2,000 a month—around a third of her take-home pay.Despite making six figures, she pours much of her free time into frugal pursuits, like shopping secondhand and spending 30 hours a week making virtually all her food from scratch, including bread, pasta, and canned goods.At this point, it's more of a way of life, she said, requesting that she remain anonymous due to the public nature of her work. She said she's not planning on giving up her frugal habits anytime soon, despite the added inconvenience."I've definitely felt burned out by it at times," she said. "I think if either my fiancé or I were to lose our jobs, I think it would be much more stressful."Her anxiety about being financially insecure — despite being relatively well off — is becoming more common.While Americans are notorious for <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/gen-x-baby-boomers-savings-cant-afford-retirement-2024-4">undersaving</a> and overspending, there's a small but growing <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/retirement-saving-henrys-401k-paycheck-to-paycheck-high-earners-millennials-2023-11">cohort of oversavers</a>—a group that socks away a lot more than the recommended 15%-20% of their gross income a year, despite having solid finances overall.That's largely driven by a more acute awareness of a higher cost of living, financial experts told BI, with Americans still scarred by the sharp rise in prices several years ago when inflation was raging around 9%.There are signs that the ranks of the oversavers in America are growing. A 2024 Bank of America study on <a target="_blank" href="https://ustrustaem.fs.ml.com/content/dam/ust/articles/pdf/2024BoA-PB_Study_of_Wealthy_Americans.pdf">wealthy Americans</a> found that 55% of people ages 21-43 increased their cash holdings over the last two years, despite having at least $3 million in investable assets. On average, the group had around 18% of their portfolios allocated in cash, much more than the 2%-10% <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.usbank.com/investing/financial-perspectives/investing-insights/percentage-of-cash-in-my-portfolio.html">recommended</a> by financial professionals. <a target="_blank" href="https://subredditstats.com/r/fire">Membership</a> on the subreddit r/<a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/personal-finance/investing/financial-independence-retire-early">FIRE</a>—a forum used by high-earning, high-saving individuals looking to amass enough wealth to retire early — has seen a 265% rise in the past three years, according to the analytics site Subreddit Stats.The subreddit r/<a target="_blank" class="" href="https://subredditstats.com/r/henryfinance">HENRYFinance</a>—also populated by <a target="_blank" href="https://www.notion.so/America-s-cost-of-living-crisis-is-creating-a-population-of-over-savers-112f0f4b6661800e9c0ecd6024798ce2?pvs=21">high-earners</a> who swap wealth-building tips—has seen an even bigger explosion in that timeframe, with membership up over 9,000%.The wealthy are increasingly trying to cut costs. The discount chain <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/inflation-is-so-bad-wealthy-shopping-at-dollar-stores-2023-9">Dollar Tree</a> saw 3.4 million new customers from households <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/dollar-tree-will-sell-7-dollar-items-straying-from-model-2024-3">earning over $125,000</a> last year, the firm said in its first-quarter earnings call. High-income Americans are also more likely than other consumers to use coupons and shop secondhand. According to one study, 89% of households earning between $175,000 and $199,999 said they <a target="_blank" href="https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/affluent-americans-lead-charge-in-online-coupon-surge-as-frustration-with-the-economy-lingers-new-study-finds-302173624.html#:~:text=In%20fact%2C%20the%20highest%20segment,between%20the%20different%20age%20groups.">redeem coupon codes</a>, more than any other income group, and 9 out of 10 Americans making over $175,000 have <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/shoppers-at-all-income-levels-seek-resale-first-as-economy-falters-301653101.html">purchased a resale item</a>, 14 percentage points higher than the average, another poll found.Kitty Ritchie, a financial advisor at Drucker Wealth Management, says she's seeing more clients who appear terrified to spend their savings, even as they age into retirement with ample cash set aside for emergencies."I think there are more people worried about spending the money. It's the ones that have accumulated it, they don't want to lose [it]," she said.<h2 id="7ab78d22-7b87-4695-bea0-c1da59d28026">Cost-of-living stress</h2>The pace of inflation has cooled significantly, but many Americans—even wealthy ones—are still dismayed that many costs are still higher overall."Even though people with six-figure incomes have a sizable amount of money coming in on paper, cost of living pressures are cutting into that pretty quickly," Ted Rossman, a senior industry analyst at Bankrate, said.High-income Americans may also be sensing less job security in the <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/hiring-slump-professional-white-collar-jobs-recession-high-salary-2024-4">white-collar sector</a>, he noted. Companies have <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.challengergray.com/blog/job-cuts-fall-in-october-2024-but-ytd-up-4-from-last-year/">announced 664,839 job cuts</a> through the first 10 months of the year—the highest year-to-date total recorded since 2020, according to Challenger, Gray &amp; Christmas.Those uncertainties amplify <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/retirement-social-security-gen-z-millennials-uncertainty-fears-pensions-2024-4">fears of not retiring on time</a>, or at all, the 32-year-old saver from Michigan told BI. She pointed to her father, who depleted his retirement savings early after having to pay for cancer treatment out of pocket."I think no matter how stable it seems, it feels like there's a very real risk that you could have to work for the rest of your life, and I certainly don't want to do that," she said.Financial anxiety is higher than it was several years ago. According to <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://investorrelations.discover.com/newsroom/press-releases/press-release-details/2024/Discover-Survey-Anxiety-and-Avoidance-are-Driving-the-Financial-Lives-of-Many-Americans/default.aspx">a survey from Discover</a>, 80% of Americans said they felt anxious about their finances to some degree, up from 71% in 2021.Experts, though, say oversaving could hurt Americans trying to build wealth in the long run. Extreme savers could be <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/millennials-big-money-mistake-holding-cash-not-buying-stocks-investing-2024-10">losing out on big investment gains</a> over the course of years by piling up cash. They also risk lowering their quality of life, especially if saving means postponing necessary health or home expenses, Ritchie noted."It's the 78-year-old who's saved, worked hard, and done well, but he's not going to spend the money now. And that's the conversation of, 'you can't take it with you'," she said.

Americans' cost-of-living anxiety is creating a population of oversavers

India's GDP growth is projected at 7.2 per cent in 2024-25, around 7 per cent in the next fiscal, and after that, there is a strong likelihood that the growth will revert to the 8 per cent trend, said <keyword id="19899810" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Reserve-Bank-of-India" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="Reserve Bank of India" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="Reserve Bank of India">Reserve Bank of India</keyword> deputy governor <keyword id="20244361" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Michael-Debabrata-Patra" source="keywords">Michael Debabrata Patra</keyword>. He was speaking at the New York Fed Central Banking Seminar organised by the <keyword id="20238413" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Federal-Reserve-Bank" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="Federal Reserve Bank" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="Federal Reserve Bank">Federal Reserve Bank</keyword> here on Monday. "...I do believe with all the strength of my conviction that India's time has come," he said, and highlighted the country heads into its future with the youngest population in the world with a median age of 28 years. Unlike in many parts of the world, the working age population is growing -- every sixth working age person is an Indian. Patra said that since independence in 1947, India's growth path has undergone three structural shifts with trend growth, having risen to 7 per cent during 2002-2019. After the severe contraction during the pandemic, a new growth trajectory averaging 8 per cent seems to be forming during 2021-24, he said. India is now regarded as the fastest growing major economy in the world. Already the fifth largest economy in terms of market exchange rates, it is poised to become the third largest economy by 2030, the senior RBI official said and added the country is already the third largest economy in terms of <keyword id="20776921" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="purchasing-power-parity" source="keywords">purchasing power parity</keyword>. "Our projections show that India's <keyword id="21013593" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="real-GDP-growth" source="keywords">real GDP growth</keyword> will be 7.2 per cent in 2024-25 and around 7.0 per cent in 2025-26 in a cyclical correction to the rebound from the pandemic. Thereafter, there is a strong likelihood that India's growth will revert to the 8 per cent trend," Patra said. On inflation, he said it is projected to average 4.5 per cent in 2024-25 and 4.1 per cent in 2025-26. Consumer Price Index (CPI) based inflation fell below target during July-August but rose to 5.5 per cent in September on the back of a pickup in price momentum in some food items and adverse base effects inherent in year-on-year measurement. "Our projection indicates that these price pressures will persist in October and November before headline inflation realigns with the target from December 2024 and remains aligned in 2025-26," the deputy governor said. He also emphasised that India is emerging as a world leader in leveraging <keyword id="20181895" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="digital-technologies" source="keywords">digital technologies</keyword> for transformative change.

India likely to grow at 7.2% in FY25, says RBI deputy governor

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Apple has been banned from selling the iPhone 16 in Indonesia.</li><li>The Indonesian government said Apple hasn't met a requirement for 40% of parts to be sourced locally.</li></ul>The Indonesian government has blocked Apple from selling its latest <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/guides/tech/iphone-16-review">iPhone 16</a> in the country because it does not meet local regulations.The latest iPhone, launched in September, has not passed the Southeast Asian nation's requirement that 40% of the material in smartphones and tablets sold nationally come from Indonesian producers. The policy is intended to protect domestic manufacturers and attract foreign investment.Indonesia's Ministry of Industry said in a statement on Friday that iPhone 16s cannot be imported for sale as Apple has yet to fulfill its investment commitment to obtain "local content level" certification.The ministry said 9,000 iPhone 16 products had already entered the country. It added that it would monitor the circulation of the devices and warned that if traded, the products would be classed as illegal.Apple's older products can still be sold in Indonesia, and visitors can use the iPhone 16 for personal use.Earlier this month, the Ministry of Industry said that Apple's investment of Rp1.5 trillion ($95 million) was still short of its Rp1.7 trillion commitment, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.ft.com/content/698d07af-c163-4bc9-9a30-b82ca479e3e8">the FT</a> reported.Apple has already built four developer academies in Indonesia. In April, CEO Tim Cook said that the company was investigating the feasibility of <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/apple-tim-cook-indonesia-production-india-china-iphone-2024-4">establishing local manufacturing facilities</a> as it diversifies production away from China.<div type="image" title="Indonesian President Joko Widodo (R) meets Apple CEO Tim Cook (2nd R) at the National Palace in Jakarta, Indonesia on April 17, 2024." height="3518" width="4690" msid="114698217" hostid="261" sizebytes="474336"></div>With over 280 million citizens, Indonesia is the world's fourth most populous nation and a growing market for Apple.The iPhone maker saw a 6% year-on-year increase in its share of the premium smartphone market in Indonesia and now makes up 40% of sales of smartphones costing more than $600, according to <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.counterpointresearch.com/insights/indonesia-smartphone-market-q2-2024/">Counterpoint</a>, a technology market research firm.However, overall sales in Indonesia remain low compared to global levels, meaning the ban is unlikely to significantly dent Apple's sales. Of the 235 million smartphones Apple sold globally last year, the company only sold about 3.4 million in Indonesia, the FT reported.Apple did not immediately reply to a request for comment, made outside normal working hours.It comes at the start of a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/apple-announcing-major-mac-updates-ai-rollout-earnings-week-2024-10">big week for Apple</a>, in which it reports earnings and is expected to introduce software and hardware updates, including its Apple Intelligence features.

Apple can't sell the new iPhone in the world's 4th most populous country

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Tesla Cybertruck, with a starting price of $80,000, is now available for lease.</li><li>Leasing an EV is a popular option, making up 46% of franchise EV sales, per J.D. Power.</li></ul>Tesla is offering the Cybertruck for lease a year after the EV company made its first deliveries to customers.Under a three-year lease with no down payment and 10,000 annual miles, leasing a Cybertruck costs $1,249 per month, not including taxes and fees, according to Tesla's website.The Cybertruck, which has a base MSRP of $79,990, makes up a small part of Tesla's overall volume production, but it still plays an important role in CEO Elon Musk's hopes to compete in the crowded <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/tesla-cybertruck-elon-musk-has-a-lot-to-learn-in-pickup-market-2023-7">pickup truck segment</a>. In its third-quarter earnings report from October, Tesla reported that the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/tesla-cybertruck-profit-2024-10">Cybertruck reached profitability</a> for the first time in less than a year since deliveries were made to customers in November 2023.Leasing an electric vehicle has become a popular option for consumers. According to <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.jdpower.com/business/resources/e-vision-intelligence-report-october-2024">J.D. Power</a>, a market research firm, 46% of EV purchases, not including Tesla, were leases in 2023.EV maker <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/rivian-q3-earnings-call-tariffs-ev-tax-credit-trump-change-2024-11">Rivian</a> said during its third-quarter earnings call earlier this month that 42% of vehicles sold were leased. According to Rivian's website, the company's lowest-priced vehicle is the R1T truck, which costs $69,900. Over the last few years leasing became a popular financing option for EVs due largely to a $7,500 federal tax credit issued under the Biden administration's <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/inflation-reduction-act-how-it-reduces-price-growth-deficit-pressures-2022-8">Inflation Reduction Act</a>.Under the program, drivers buying an EV with cash or through a loan could be eligible for a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/tesla-tax-credit">$7,500 tax credit</a>, making the overall purchase more affordable. However, the credit only comes if certain provisions are met, such as vehicle manufacturing requirements, whether the buyer remains under an income threshold, and if the vehicle's price doesn't exceed $80,000.However, leasing an EV offers buyers another way to take advantage of the tax credit program without meeting every requirement. Through what's known as a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/electric-vehicle-lease-payments-cheaper-affordability-hack-2024-9">"leasing loophole,"</a> dealerships can receive the tax credit and choose to pass those savings on to the buyer or lessee.Rivian said during its earnings call earlier this month that lessees make up a large population of those who take advantage of the tax incentive program.But Tesla's Cybertruck has largely been left out of the federal incentive program. A spokesperson for the Internal Revenue Service pointed BI to the Department of Energy's website, which has a list of eligible vehicles under the federal program. The Cybertruck was not listed.A Tesla spokesperson did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

Tesla Cybertrucks have joined the growing number of luxury EVs that can now be leased

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Wind turbine service technician is the fastest-growing job in the US.</li><li>The Bureau of Labor Statistics released projections highlighting changes from 2023 to 2033.</li></ul>Being able to <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/laid-off-cant-find-job-retirement-worry-ageism-social-security-2024-5">land new work has been rough for job seekers</a> amid a cooldown in hiring and <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/unemployment-rate-job-growth-july-labor-market-economic-data-2024-7">increased competition</a> as more people enter the US labor force.Americans having <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/cant-get-hired-laid-off-many-job-applications-few-interviews-2024-8">trouble getting interviews</a> could look ahead to what jobs are projected to grow rapidly between 2023 and 2033. Below are the 15 jobs that could see the highest percent increases in their employment, according to new projections from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.A <a target="_blank" href="https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/ecopro.pdf">news release</a> from the Bureau of Labor Statistics on Thursday showed wind turbine service technician is the occupation with the highest projected percent increase in employment from 2023 to 2033. It was the only job with an increase of over 50%, but solar photovoltaic installers came close with a projected employment increase of 48%."The increased demand for electricity is related to growth in electric vehicles and new data centers," the news release said. "Although these occupations are expected to be fast growing, the two occupations are projected to add fewer than 20,000 jobs combined."A <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/meet-traveling-wind-tech-america-fast-growing-green-energy-jobs-2022-9">traveling wind turbine tech</a> who talked to Business Insider a few years ago highlighted what the job is like, including his duties of routine maintenance, troubleshooting, and other responsibilities, as well as why he took on this job."We are as a society trying to move away from coal and oil for our power generation, and being able to be a part of that kind of movement and being part of the solution is definitely a proud moment for me," he said.Those with <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/healthcare-childcare-expensive-costs-wage-growth-employment-ai-risks-2024-8">healthcare</a> experience could see a rapid increase in some job opportunities in the future. Nurse practitioners and physical therapist assistants were among the 15 fastest-growing jobs. Veterinary assistants and laboratory animal caretakers rounded out the top 15."Healthcare and social assistance is projected to have the largest growth and be the fastest growing industry sector," the news releases from BLS on Thursday said.Home health and personal care aides are expected to see the largest increase in employment from 2023 to 2033, with an increase of 820,500. While that's far beyond the projected increases of other occupations, there were 15 other jobs where employment is projected to jump by over 100,000. That includes restaurant cooks, registered nurses, and management analysts.Social assistance workers could be in demand over the next several years and beyond to help care for the aging population. <a target="_blank" href="https://www.nytimes.com/2024/02/29/health/nursing-home-staffing-shortages-pandemic.html">Nursing homes</a> and other places have had <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/teacher-shortage-schools-nurses-daycare-costs-inflation-rate-retail-workers-2023-10">labor shortages</a>. Cory Stahle, an Indeed economist, previously told Business Insider healthcare is one key industry where there could continue to be long-term shortages."We see the nursing shortage story has been a multi-year story at this point, and we continue to see nurses saying that they want to leave, they're burned out," Stahle said.Nurse practitioners and some of the other fastest-growing jobs have median annual wages in the six figures, based on wages from the Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics program.The 13 fastest-growing occupations have median annual wages above the median for all occupations, which is $48,060. The median for solar photovoltaic installers, which is the second-fastest growing job, is close to the overall median, though, at $48,800. Home health and personal care aides, as well as veterinary assistants and laboratory animal caretakers, are projected to grow faster than many other occupations, but they have lower pay than the overall median.

The 15 fastest-growing jobs in the US

<keyword id="21333142" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="Indias-population" source="keywords">India's population</keyword> is projected to peak in the early 2060s at about <keyword id="22386427" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="1-7-billion" source="keywords">1.7 billion</keyword> and then decline by 12%, but the country will remain the world's most populous throughout the century, the <keyword id="19896118" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="United-Nations" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="United Nations" meta.hostid="153" meta.entityid="United Nations">United Nations</keyword> has said. The World Population Prospects 2024 report, released on Thursday, said that the world's population is expected to continue growing over the coming 50-60 years, reaching a peak of around 10.3 billion people in the mid-2080s, significantly up from 8.2 billion in 2024. After peaking, the global population is projected to start declining gradually, falling to 10.2 billion people by the end of the century. India, which surpassed <keyword id="19894886" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="China" source="keywords">China</keyword> as the world's most populous nation last year, will continue to hold that position through 2100. "The population of India, which is expected to remain the world's largest throughout the century, will likely decline by 12% after reaching its peak in the early 2060s at about 1.7 billion," the <keyword id="19898339" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="UN" source="keywords">UN</keyword> report published by the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs (DESA), <keyword id="271075" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="population-division" source="Orion">Population Division</keyword> said. According to the report, India's population in 2024 is projected at 1.45 billion and this will peak to 1.69 billion in 2054. After this, India's population is projected to decline to 1.5 billion by the end of the century in 2100, but the country will still remain the most populous nation on Earth. Responding to a question by PTI on population projections for India, Senior Population Affairs Officer, Population Division, <keyword id="6355835" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="un" source="Orion">UN</keyword> DESA Clare Menozzi said at a press conference that "India is currently the largest country in the world in terms of population, and it is projected to stay so throughout the century. The population is currently estimated at 1.45 billion, and it's supposed to increase further to 1.69 billion. "It's supposed to peak around the 2060s in size and then it starts to slightly decline. So by the end of the century, India is projected to be around 1.5 billion, but will still the largest country in the world by a large margin." The report said that China's population, currently 1.41 billion in 2024, will fall to 1.21 billion in 2054 and further decline to 633 million by 2100. "It is anticipated that China, the country currently with the world's second-largest population, will likely experience the largest absolute population loss between 2024 and 2054 (204 million)," followed by <keyword id="6355311" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Japan" source="Orion">Japan</keyword> (21 million) and <keyword id="6358826" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Russia" source="Orion">Russia</keyword> (10 million). "Longer-range population projections are more uncertain" for China, it said. "However, due to its large size and sustained low level of fertility, China is also likely to record the largest population decline of any country through the end of the century (786 million people). By 2100, China is projected to have lost more than a half of its current population and to have returned to a population size comparable to that recorded in the late 1950s (50% probability)." Responding to a question on the significantly low population projection for China, Director of the Population Division at UN DESA John Wilmoth said that "it really relates to the level of fertility that's observed currently in China. The current number is right around one birth per woman on average over a lifetime." "Given that you need 2.1 births to maintain the current population without migration, if fertility levels remain at such a low level, even if they come up slightly, any fertility level if it's below two, or especially below 1.8 or below 1.5, you're really getting into low levels of fertility and it produces a long run decline that's quite significant. And that's true for China. It's true for some other countries in this analysis," Wilmoth said. Currently, nearly one-fifth of all countries and areas, including China, Italy, the Republic of Korea and Spain, are experiencing what is sometimes referred to as "ultra-low" fertility, with fewer than 1.4 live births per woman over a lifetime. The report added that the global fertility rate currently stands at 2.25 live births per woman, down from 3.31 births in 1990. "More than half of all countries and areas globally have fertility below the replacement level of 2.1 live births per woman. This is the level required for a population to maintain a constant size in the long run (without migration), with each generation being followed by another of roughly equal size," it said. Pakistan is projected to overtake the US as the third-largest country in the world, with a population of 389 million in 2054. Currently, the US is the third largest country in the world with a population of 345 million and in 2054, it will be the fourth largest with 384 million people. Pakistan will remain the third largest country in the world, with a population of 511 million people in 2100. The report said that the estimated likelihood that the world's population will peak within the current century is very high, with a probability of 80%, a major change in UN projections from a decade ago, when this probability was around 30%. The size of the world's population in 2100 is now expected to be 6%smaller - or about 700 million people fewer - than anticipated a decade ago. In about 126 countries and areas, the population is likely to continue growing through 2054, potentially reaching a peak later in the century or beyond 2100. This group includes several of the world's most populous countries: India, Indonesia, Nigeria, Pakistan and the United States of America. In 2023, the global number of deaths among children under age 5 fell below 5 million for the first time in recent history. However, 95% of such deaths took place in the 126 countries with populations that are still growing, including the Democratic Republic of the Congo, India, Nigeria and Pakistan. The report added that globally, life expectancy at birth reached 73.3 years in 2024, an increase of 8.4 years since 1995. Further reductions in mortality are projected to result in an average longevity of around 77.4 years globally in 2054. Since 2022, life expectancy has returned to levels observed before the emergence of the coronavirus disease in nearly all countries and areas. At the height of the COVID-19 pandemic during 2020 and 2021, global life expectancy at birth fell to 70.9 years, down from 72.6 in 2019. The report said that by 2080, persons aged 65 or older will outnumber children under 18. "By the late 2070s, the number of persons at ages 65 years and higher globally is projected to reach 2.2 billion, surpassing the number of children (under age 18). By the mid-2030s, it is projected that there will be 265 million persons aged 80 years or older, more than the number of infants (1 year of age or less)," it said.

India's population to peak in early 2060s to 1.7 billion before declining: UN

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Russia's population could shrink by half by the end of the century, the <keyword id="22757247" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Atlantic-Council" source="keywords">Atlantic Council</keyword> said.</li><li>The <keyword id="22757248" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Russian-Ukraine-war" source="keywords">Russian-Ukraine war</keyword> has accelerated the <keyword id="20234670" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="population-decline" source="keywords">population decline</keyword>. </li></ul>Russia's economy has a dire demographic problem on its hands, and the nation could see its population slashed in half by the end of the century, according to the Atlantic Council. The report from the Washington, DC, think tank — written by Harley Balzer, a professor emeritus at Georgetown University — points to Russia's long-running <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/putin-calls-russians-more-babies-ethnic-survival-economy-2024-2" target="_blank">population decline</a>. The nation's overall population growth has shrunk over the past 10 years, according to <a href="https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/POPTOTRUA647NWDB" target="_blank">World Bank</a> data. That decline has been exacerbated by the Russian-Ukraine war. <a target="_blank" href="https://www.reuters.com/world/us-intelligence-assesses-ukraine-war-has-cost-russia-315000-casualties-source-2023-12-12/">Russian casualties climbed above 300,000</a> at the end of 2023, according to US Intelligence officials, and about a million <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-ukraine-war-economy-soviet-union-spending-workers-flee-imf-2024-2">Russians fled the country</a> soon after Vladimir Putin ordered the invasion of Ukraine. The demographic trend spells trouble for Russia's economy, which is already dealing with a <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-lacks-workers-ukraine-war-labor-crisis-worker-shortage-2023-12">severe worker shortage</a>. At the end of 2023, Russia was short a record 5 million workers, according to an estimate from the Russian Academy of Science's Institute of Economics. Russia has turned to <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-making-labor-crisis-worse-sending-workers-to-war-ukraine-2023-11" target="_blank">migrant</a> and even <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russian-economy-worker-shortage-prison-labor-ukraine-war-putin-kremlin-2023-10" target="_blank">prison labor</a> to supplement its workforce, but those aren't sustainable solutions to its population problem, Balzer says. "Putin's government has not evinced visible concern that Russia's population might be cut in half by century's end. Unless Russia's leaders can develop and finance a more effective set of policies, the only solutions to population decline will be a combination of incorporating non-Russian territory and/or immigration from Asia and Africa," Balzer said in the <a href="https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/A-Russia-without-Russians-Putins-disastrous-demographics.pdf" target="_blank">report</a> this week. "As Russia's population continues to decline, immigrants will be increasingly vital to economic recovery," he added. Experts have said a shrinking population could result in a number of problems for <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/currencies/russia-economy-ukraine-war-tech-reverse-industrialization-central-bank-finland-2023-3">Russia's economy</a>, like lower growth and productivity. By 2026, that could put <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russian-economy-brain-drain-labor-shortage-workforce-exodus-capital-flight-2023-9">Russia's economy on track to fall behind Indonesia's</a>, where population is rising, the Atlantic Council previously predicted. "Putin's choice of timing for military aggression in Ukraine might have reflected an understanding that Russia's demographic (and economic) situation would not improve in the next two decades. However, the war is turning a growing crisis into a catastrophe," they added. Russia's economy isn't on solid footing to begin with, particularly as its invasion of Ukraine grows more costly and damages its economic ties to global markets. Moscow is on track to fall into a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-economy-collapse-recession-moscow-ukraine-war-us-dollar-energy-2024-7#:~:text=According%20to%20UC%20Berkeley%20economist,steady%20flow%20of%20US%20dollars.">severe recession</a> by the end of the year, one UC Berkeley economist previously told Business Insider, pointing to Russia's collapsed energy trade and its waning access to the US dollar. Correction: August 9, 2024 — An earlier version of this story misstated who wrote the Atlantic Council report. It was written by Harley Balzer, a professor emeritus at Georgetown University, not multiple Atlantic Council researchers.

Russia's economy faces a demographic disaster and risks seeing its population reduced by half by the end of this century, think tank says

Grace, a 29-year-old publicist in New York, has regularly used a slew of dating apps for more than four years, with little luck. Despite endless chatting, her matches rarely materialize into in-person dates. She's tried a paid version of <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/hinge-boyfriend-why-dating-is-better-offline-2023-6">Hinge</a> ($100 for three months). She's tried the members-only app Raya, but after she spent $120 a year for the past three years, it's led her to only two first dates. At this point, Grace said, the apps have left her "burned out and exhausted."In a recent Forbes survey of Americans who'd used dating apps in the past year, 78% of respondents said they felt some amount of burnout. A growing number of younger people are rejecting dating and sex altogether. Among millions, a consensus is forming: <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/forever-alone-staying-single-done-with-dating-apps-2023-7">Dating apps suck</a> so bad that they might even be deliberately keeping us from finding love.Theories abound on what's behind the frustrating, sorry state of apps. Some point to how, as a way to compensate for stagnating user bases, many apps are increasingly becoming pay to play. Last fall, Tinder rolled out a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/how-to-get-tinder-select-the-499-monthly-subscription-2023-12">$500 monthly subscription</a>, in addition to two cheaper membership tiers. The League charges up to $1,000 a week or $2,500 a month. Hinge charges users for "roses" to send to their "standouts," which are trapped behind a paywall that critics have dubbed "rose jail." These days, "it's really a lot harder to be functional if you're not on some level of a paid membership," Damona Hoffman, a dating coach, said. While apps like Hinge insist they're "designed to be deleted," finding a partner on them increasingly seems reserved only for those who can afford it.Some point to a fundamental misalignment between dating-app companies and their customers: The more successful the product is for the user, the worse it is for the bottom line. "They don't actually want you to be successful because that means they're losing a customer," said Bianca Stelian, a digital strategist who posted <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/dating-apps-deleted-hinge-raya-tinder-bumble-oversaturated-bad-matches-2024-1">a viral TikTok</a> positing her own theories about dating-app burnout. Others argue that the apps are intentionally gamified and addictive. The average American dating-app user spends <a target="_blank" href="https://www.forbes.com/health/dating/dating-app-fatigue/">51 minutes a day</a> swiping, more than double the time the average American spends exercising. Ryan Clarkson, a lawyer who recently brought a class-action lawsuit on behalf of Tinder and Hinge users, compared dating apps maximizing user engagement and "trapping users in a perpetual pay-to-play loop" to pharmaceutical companies selling addictive drugs to vulnerable patients. Match Group, which owns Tinder and Hinge, called Clarkson's lawsuit "ridiculous" and insisted that its business strategy didn't rely on advertising or engagement metrics.Still, others blame the problem on the near monopoly a handful of companies — namely Match Group (which owns 45 dating brands worldwide) and Bumble — have on the market, which has led to years of complacency. "They've just been the same for so long," Ali Jackson, a New York City dating coach, said. "Somebody needs to do something drastically different."So here's one idea: What if your local government played matchmaker?Before you barf at the thought of your mayor setting you up on your next date, hear me out: The more expensive dating becomes, the less equitable it becomes. Meanwhile, the US government is increasingly recognizing social connection as a key element of public health, and increasingly investing in ways to combat our "<a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/there-is-no-loneliness-epidemic-mental-health-2024-4">loneliness epidemic</a>." If romantic relationships are so important both for the individual and for society, it's not a stretch to consider them a public good worth investing in.Some countries, including Japan and Australia, already do and have been experimenting with government-subsidized and even government-run alternatives to traditional, commercial dating apps. While these projects are still in their early days, they raise a once unthinkable, now compelling question for America: Could the government bring some much-needed innovation to dating?For years, several East Asian countries have desperately sought to reverse their plummeting birth rates. They've rolled out subsidies for parents, salary increases for younger workers, and other family-friendly policies. Increasingly, they see the dating industry as a lever to pull.The Japanese federal government's Children and Families Agency, for example, has set up marriage support centers in most of the country's 47 prefectures, providing services like dating coaches, in-person mixers, and at least one mixer in the metaverse. A center in Saitama prefecture (population 7.3 million) reported that since its center opened in October 2018, 12,517 couples had begun dating through the service and 472 couples had gotten married.In Tokyo, the city government is even releasing its own dating app, part of a campaign called Tokyo Futari Story ("futari" means couple). The service, which the city has budgeted several million dollars to develop and promote, will require users to verify their income, prove they're unmarried, sit for an interview with the app's staff, and sign a statement saying they're intent on getting married. Some experts are cautiously optimistic about the government playing cupid. Bouke de Vries, an associate professor of philosophy at Ghent University in Belgium who's studied dating apps, argues that state-run dating apps are at least in theory better positioned to help people find partners without spending too much money or time in the process. Many for-profit dating services are "gratuitously prolonging" users' search for love, he said. "The interests of governments are much better aligned with those of love-seeking users than those of private companies and love-seeking users," de Vries said.Others say these projects will do little to change entrenched attitudes. Omar Minami, a former Tinder employee in Japan and cofounder of a Japanese dating app, said that low marriage and birth rates are the result of much-deeper economic and cultural issues, including the gender wage gap, intense work culture, and huge expenses of raising kids. Government-funded dating apps are a "shiny object" and short-term solution, he added."It will take decades of work in order to change the mindset of Japanese people in regards to marriage," he said. "Unfortunately, government officials are only looking for investments that will pay off in their lifetime."On the other hand, governments can be given so much power to play matchmaker they damage all of society. In the 1980s, Singapore pursued a racist, eugenics-based policy by offering discounted dating services exclusively to college-educated citizens, who were disproportionately ethnically Chinese, excluding members of marginalized minorities. The government also funded voluntary sterilization for lower-income parents.Other countries, however, have stepped in to make dating less dangerous for its most vulnerable citizens. People with disabilities in Australia can now use the cash benefits they get from the country's <a target="_blank" href="https://www.ndis.gov.au/">National Disability Insurance Scheme</a> to pay for a dating app designed for people with disabilities, called the Cliq Connection. Cheryl Drury, the app's founder, said many of her customers previously had trouble dating, fell prey to scams, or were sexually assaulted. "They're just being eaten up on mainstream dating apps because they're just so vulnerable through physical assault as well as scams," she said. But she doubts the government will offer direct support for her services anytime soon, given the persistent "taboo" surrounding sexuality, relationships, and disability.A more realistic model for America may be a public-private partnership model. Last year, Japan's most popular dating app, the Match Group-owned Pairs, began collaborating with several prefectures and cities. The governments have employed researchers to devise questionnaires for users and have hosted dating seminars and other events, and they're covering the costs of their constituents' memberships to the app. The company, which isn't taking direct government funding, says it hopes these partnerships will help alleviate the "worsening population decline in rural areas and the resulting low birth rate and unmarried population."Francesca Katayama met her husband on Pairs in Tokyo in 2021 (they now have 2-year-old twins). The 31-year-old said she's in favor of more government support for dating — especially for an app like Pairs, which has already catered to people seeking committed relationships — but blames the country's high cost of living and intense work culture for low marriage and birth rates.Junko Yamada, a psychology professor at Rissho University who has worked with Pairs, thinks governments have a key role to play in breaking down barriers in the world of romance. "Although romantic relationships are often perceived as an individual problem," Yamada said, "the problem is actually largely due to social structures." She blamed a decline in dating on workplace sexual harassment, an insular social scene, and concerns about safety and security. Yamada said that government-subsidized dating services could appeal particularly to those who are skeptical of private-sector apps by offering extra security and ensuring users are serious about finding romantic connection.But could any of this happen in America? As of today, an engineer hoping to build the next OKCupid from inside the Department of Health and Human Services would face some steep hurdles.For one thing, there's a lack of bipartisan support. Beyond defending reproductive rights, liberals and progressives have largely shied away from promoting courtship and family creation. Meanwhile, small-government conservatives are unlikely to pass a Make America Date Again bill. Although! Conservatives have long been <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/republican-baby-bust-panic-wont-support-pro-family-policies-2021-4">fixated on boosting the birth rate</a>, and Elon Musk, who is now donating $45 million a month to a Trump super PAC and has long warned against "population collapse," trumpeted the announcement of Tokyo's dating app. "I'm glad the Japanese government recognizes the importance of this matter. If radical action isn't taken, Japan (and many other countries) will disappear!" he wrote on X.But perhaps a bigger impediment than political will is cultural taboo. "There's something almost salacious about finding love and dating," said Justin Garcia, a sex researcher and professor of gender studies at Indiana University. If society viewed sex and relationships as a health issue, there would already be government funding to study it and independent commissions to address it, he added. But Garcia, who runs the university's sexual-behavior research center, Kinsey Institute, has found it nearly impossible to get the government to fund research related to sex and romance unless it's specific to a very particular, marginalized group, like those suffering from epilepsy or Alzheimer's.Instead, academics have to partner with industry or philanthropic organizations. Garcia serves as a scientific advisor to Match Group, which funds some of his research. Meanwhile, his work is under attack by Republican lawmakers, who last year ended state funding for the Kinsey Institute, prompting the university's board of trustees to consider turning it into an independent nonprofit.To Garcia, funding research on romantic and sexual relationships is a no-brainer. "These are some of the most important relationships in our lives," he said. "They impact our psychological health. They impact our physical health. They impact our financial and economic prospects. They impact our family dynamics and future generations."When it comes to dating apps, he supports rigorous research on what's working and what's not. He sees a role for the government, though, he said, there's a vaguely ominous threat of the government intervening in people's personal lives. "We don't want government telling us who we should partner with, and how to partner, and when to partner, but rather giving people more resources to have successful relationships," he said.No American government has yet helped its constituents date. But it might not be hard to imagine a local official like Mayor Eric Adams of New York City — who once spun his outdoor-dining policy as a way to promote flirting — getting behind a state-supported dating service. One could hear him announcing at a press conference: "We are extremely proud to introduce a new dating experience from America's mayor, called Adams &amp; Eve."<a target="_blank" rel="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/author/eliza-relman">Eliza Relman</a> is a policy correspondent focused on housing, transportation, and infrastructure on Insider's economy team.

Japan's one weird trick to reverse population collapse

The US is undergoing a 'millionaire remix' &mdash; these are the cities with the fastest-growing populations of rich people

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Lithuania's startup scene is booming, with over 900 startups, and it's transforming Vilnius.</li><li>Unicorns Vinted and Nord Security are based around Vilnius' Cyber City, a former factory site.</li></ul>In a cluster of industrial buildings on the outskirts of <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/brazil-lithuania-move-career-safety-progression-make-friends-2024-1">Vilnius</a> Old Town, a series of grey-brown brick buildings tower over their surroundings.A tall chimney stack is a lone relic from the site's time as a Soviet sock factory. (The bricks hark back to this history — laid out to mimic the pattern of the socks .)Now it's known as Cyber City — a symbol of a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/lithuania-world-happy-genz-also-europe-suicide-capital-vilnius-health-2024-9">changed Lithuania.</a><div type="image" title="The chimney in Cyber City" height="4284" width="5712" msid="113664019" hostid="261" sizebytes="657316"></div>A bus stop just outside is called <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/the-startups-most-likely-to-be-the-next-unicorns-2023-8">"Unicorn,"</a> celebrating the tech giants <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/milda-mitkute-vinted-cofounder-lithuania-success-2024-2">Vinted</a> and <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/nord-cybersecurity-startup-raises-100m-in-first-external-round-2022-4">Nord Security,</a> whose headquarters are meters away.Marijus Briedis, Nord Security's chief technology officer, says the area used to be a "no-go zone.""It was a dangerous area to be," he said, speaking from an office in his company's brand-new headquarters there.Nord Security became Lithuania's second billion-dollar tech unicorn in 2022, three years after Vinted joined the club.<div type="image" title="Nord Security's headquarters" height="4284" width="5712" msid="113664021" hostid="261" sizebytes="2574968"></div>Briedis described a sea of Soviet-era factories, ramshackle buildings, and unsavory characters that once populated the area.Now, he said, it's changing fast, driven by <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/biotech-scientist-moved-from-us-to-europe-happier-less-stressed-2024-8">Lithuania's burgeoning tech startup scene</a>. Nord's building takes its inspiration from <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/dating-silicon-valley-big-tech-hard-want-marriage-kids-2024-7">Silicon Valley</a> tech campuses."I would say the last five years was a really booming period for all the startups and startup community," Briedis said. "Because we just exploded."<div type="image" title="Inside Nord Security's new Vilnius HQ." height="4284" width="5712" msid="113664029" hostid="261" sizebytes="743920"></div>After World War II, Lithuania was forcibly absorbed into the Soviet Union, only gaining its independence in 1990. For years, the country was mainly known as <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/cheap-european-city-breaks-2016-3">a destination for cheap city breaks</a>, but that's changed in recent years.Between 2018 and 2023, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://inovacijuagentura.lt/site/binaries/content/assets/naujienos/dealroom_lithuania-2024-report.pdf">Lithuania's startup ecosystem grew</a> significantly, with the combined enterprise value of the country's startups increasing more than sevenfold.Lithuania now has more than 900 startups. It <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.lrt.lt/en/news-in-english/19/1911785/lithuania-has-its-third-unicorn-minister-says">claims to have at least three unicorns</a>, as well as the <a target="_blank" href="https://dealroom.co/reports/the-lithuanian-startup-ecosystem-2023-review">fastest-growing startup ecosystem</a> in the Baltics and the second-largest in terms of <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/personal-finance/investing/venture-capital">VC investment</a> in Central and Eastern Europe.<a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/lithuania-happiest-country-young-people-2024-3">Lithuania,</a> with a population of less than 3 million, has a much smaller market than neighboring larger countries, Briedis noted. "So, you have to think globally."<h2 id="0fb904d2-ddec-4cea-8ea3-d071585528a7">Europe's biggest tech campus</h2><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/vilnius-lithuania-happiest-gen-z-cheap-safe-fun-tech-hub-2024-9">Vilnius, the Lithuanian capital</a>, sits at the center of this startup scene — the city is responsible for about <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://dealroom.co/reports/the-lithuanian-startup-ecosystem-2023-review">90% of all Lithuanian startup enterprise value</a>.Valdas Benkuskas, the city's mayor, said it <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.govilnius.lt/do-business-and-invest/economic-overview">contributes almost half of the country's GDP.</a>As a startup powerhouse, Vilnius is now vying to become <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/these-are-the-32-most-exciting-fintech-startups-europe-2024-2024-2">a tech hub</a> to rival European giants like Berlin, London, and Amsterdam — though it's still some way off.Yet its transformation is best exemplified by projects like Cyber City, and another even more ambitious project now underway, the mayor told BI.Tech Zity, an ambitious project a short walk from Cyber City, could help to turbocharge Lithuania's tech scene.<div type="image" title="The plans for Tech Zity" height="4284" width="5712" msid="113664014" hostid="261" sizebytes="664816"></div>"Lithuania moved on from the 90s when we gained independence and it was mainly factories, sewing factories, metallurgy," says Kipras Krasauskas, the COO of Tech Zity, now a sprawling construction site."The next stage was we started creating retail companies and transportation companies," he said, "and now the next generations come and they are creating global products — <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/guides/tech/nordvpn-review">NordVPN,</a> Vinted, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/kilo-health-unveils-key-tips-for-predicting-product-success-1033545074">Kilo Health</a>."Several companies have already secured space in what is poised to become Europe's largest tech campus, spanning 592,015 square feet and accommodating up to 5,000 workers.At the moment, it's just dusty floors, steel supports, and exposed wooden beams.<div type="image" title="Tech Zity's renovation, internal" height="4284" width="5712" msid="113664033" hostid="261" sizebytes="2641190"></div>But Krasauskas envisions the tech campus as a vibrant community where entrepreneurs can build startups, connect with venture capitalists, secure funding, and close deals.He hopes it will become a European center for innovation and a breeding ground for <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/the-startups-most-likely-to-be-the-next-unicorns-2023-8">future unicorns</a>, which will help the Lithuanian economy go from strength to strength."I believe more and more parts of our GDP will be created within this area," he said.Like Cyber City, Tech Zity is being developed on the site of a Soviet-era factory.<div type="image" title="Piles of bricks as construction is underway on a former Soviet sewing factory." height="4284" width="5712" msid="113664024" hostid="261" sizebytes="2267022"></div>While the old sewing factory still operates from a smaller building nearby, the larger structure is being transformed into the campus hub, which will feature restaurants, a sports center, and a conference center."Our idea for Tech Zity is not to demolish and build new buildings, but try to renovate the old ones and give them new life and new function," Krasauskas says, gesturing to a display of repurposed items.Old window frames will be converted into meeting boxes, he says, while wooden beams are now coworking tables and halogen lights have been upcycled into an art display.<div type="image" title="Items from the Soviet-era factory on display, including window frames and floor tiles" height="4284" width="5712" msid="113664007" hostid="261" sizebytes="778334"></div><h2 id="69e89767-5ef9-4066-b6fb-88a81b25b133">A changing city</h2>While the city is embracing its ambitions as a tech hub, it is determined to preserve traces of its darker Soviet past.Back in his office, Benkuskas, the mayor, explains that while the tech companies are new, they purposefully "bought old territories, which were old factories built in the Soviet Union and abandoned for many years.""That illustrates how Lithuania and Vilnius have changed from Soviet times, with old technologies and neglected buildings, to new technologies, a new economy, and newfound strength," he says."I'm proud that we are transforming the city in this way."

How Europe's biggest tech campus is growing out of a Soviet-era sock factory

<ul class="summary-list"><li>A new Japanese government report may be readying its public for the possibility of war.</li><li>It expands on the threats it faces from Russia, China and North Korea.</li></ul>Japan's newest strategic review names China, North Korea and Russia as threats to Japanese security.That's hardly a revelation. But it is a change from previous years when the Japanese government was more circumspect about publicly identifying potential enemies. In fact, the theme of the 2024 <a target="_blank" href="https://www.mod.go.jp/en/publ/w_paper/index.html">"Defense of Japan"</a> report may be to prepare the Japanese public for more defense spending and the possibility of war."The biggest change is in the description of the regional security environment," Nicholas Szechenyi, a Japan expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, told Business Insider. "Instead of vague references to 'changes to the status quo by force,' the white paper now refers more explicitly to Chinese coercion and the North Korea threat. Clearer explanations of the threats to Japan's national security will prove critical as the government seeks public support for an ambitious defense spending plan."The review is part of a reconsideration of Japan's needs in the face of growing threats from its well-armed neighbors, especially China. Japan reserves its military only for self-defense and has avoided entering any armed conflict since its defeat in World War II.The 2024 paper —of which only a summary has been released — includes more details about the Chinese threat to Japan, including joint Chinese-Russian exercises. China has "conducted joint bomber flights and naval navigations with Russia in the vicinity of Japan," the paper said. "These repeated joint activities are clearly intended for demonstration of force against Japan and are a grave concern from the perspective of the national security of Japan."The Ministry of Defense also challenged the legality of Chinese operations in the South China Sea, which China claims as its own territorial waters despite an international court judgment to the contrary. "China has intensified its activities in the South China Sea based on assertions, which are conflicting with existing orders of the seas, and promoting the establishment of military bases," the official paper said. "Such actions to further promote unilateral change of the status quo by force and turning it into a fait accompli are serious concerns to Japan."The paper also highlighted North Korea's nuclear and ballistic missile capabilities, including ICBMs, nuclear-armed cruise missiles, and hypersonic weapons. "North Korea is focusing on qualitatively improving its nuclear and missile capabilities, such as diversifying its equipment systems and acquiring intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance (ISR) means that complement its nuclear and missile operational capabilities," the paper said.The 2024 paper reiterated the Japanese government's commitment to the 2022 Defense Buildup Plan, a five-year effort that includes development of stand-off anti-ship missiles to repel a Chinese amphibious assault on the disputed islands and mainland Japan. The 43 trillion yen (US$287 billion) plan also calls for development of hypersonic missiles, as well as drones such as robotic amphibious landing vehicles.Besides external threats and new equipment, the paper highlighted a critical need for the Japan Self-Defense Forces: more people. While militaries in many developed nations are struggling to recruit personnel, this is particularly acute in Japan, where <a target="_blank" href="https://www.cnn.com/2023/09/18/asia/japan-elderly-population-workforce-intl-hnk/index.html">sharply declining birth rates</a> and barriers to immigration have resulted in a population where almost 30%is over age 65. Nor is military service seen as attractive in an economy with an unemployment rate of just 2.5%.While the paper promised the JSDF would improve pay and working conditions, experts are not convinced this will solve the problem."There are other things that the MOD needs to do, such as expanding the reserve force component which can be done by adjusting the recruitment regime and also better integrating them with the active component," Ryo Hinata-Yamaguchi, an adjunct senior fellow at the Honolulu-based Pacific Forum think tank, told Business Insider. "The problem is that such changes will require adjustments in laws and also various arrangements with the civilian sector."Michael Peck is a defense writer whose work has appeared in Forbes, Defense News, Foreign Policy magazine, and other publications. He holds an MA in political science from Rutgers Univ. Follow him on <a target="_blank" href="https://www.twitter.com/@mipeck1">Twitter</a> and <a target="_blank" href="https://www.linkedin.com/in/mipeck/">LinkedIn</a>.

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