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Mumbai: Indian stock markets rallied on Monday after the <keyword id="20032950" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="BJP-led-government" source="keywords">BJP-led government</keyword> secured a majority in the latest state elections in Maharashtra. The <keyword id="20641216" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="Nifty-50" source="keywords">Nifty 50</keyword> index gained more than 1.45 per cent or 346.30 points to open at 24,253.55 points, while the BSE <keyword id="19896382" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Sensex" source="keywords">Sensex</keyword> index surged 1,076 points or 1.36 percent to open at 80,193.47 points. Experts noted that the election results have an impact on the markets today, and if past trends are followed, the markets may witness some rally amid the return of the BJP in the Maharashtra state elections. <keyword id="20161891" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Ajay-Bagga" source="keywords">Ajay Bagga</keyword> Banking and Market Expert stated that "The just concluded elections in Maharashtra, the results of which were declared on November 23rd, will have a positive immediate impact on the stock markets. The landslide win for the BJP lead coalition in the Maharashtra state elections could lead to a short-term boost to the Indian stock markets which have been in a declining mode" He further added "Investors will interpret this mandate as favourable for the capex and infrastructure push that is ongoing in Maharashtra. The beneficiary sectors of this election are industrials, infrastructure, manufacturing, real estate and financials". In the sectoral indices on the National Stock Exchange, <keyword id="20065014" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Nifty-Realty" source="keywords">Nifty Realty</keyword> and <keyword id="19941314" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Nifty-PSU-Bank" source="keywords">Nifty PSU Bank</keyword> rallied with a surge of more than 2 percent, while other major indices also gained more than 1.5 per cent, including Nifty Metal, Nifty Media, and Nifty Oil &amp; Gas. In the Nifty 50 list, 49 stocks gained during the opening session, while only one stock declined. Shri Finance opened as the top gainer in the Nifty 50. The shares of the AdGroup also surged around 2 percent at the time of filing this report. <keyword id="19967296" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Adani-Green" source="keywords">Adani Green</keyword> also climbed around 4 percent. "We are most likely to break the falling 20-day average that lies at 24,030, which will be the first time that'd happen since the record high of 27th September. Seasonality trends between now and the end of the year have been historically positive, with the Nifty rising 80% of the time during this period with an average return of over 4 per cent" Akshay Chinchalkar, Head of Research, Axis Securities. In other Asian markets, Japan and South Korea indices rallied. The Nikkei 225 index surged more than 1.5 percent, South Korea's Kospi also rose by 1.5 percent, Taiwan's Weighted Index was up by 0.48 percent, while Hong Kong's Hang Seng index was down marginally by 0.14 percent at the time of filing this report.

Nifty, Sensex rallied around 1.5 % after Maharashtra election results, Experts noted short term rally

<ul class="summary-list"><li>US bank stocks surged following Donald Trump's presidential election victory.</li><li>Markets see looser regulations and changes in oversight spurring more profits for banks. </li></ul>US bank stocks rallied on Wednesday after Donald Trump <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/donald-trump-wins-presidential-election-race-2024-11">cruised to victory</a> in the presidential election, with markets eyeing a better environment for dealmaking and lending to drive stronger profits. Shares of the largest US banks soared ahead of the opening bell. JPMorgan and Bank of America both rose 6%, Citi rose 8%, and Wells Fargo jumped 10%. Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley climbed 6% and 8%, respectively. The SPDR S&amp;P Bank exchange-traded fund climbed 8%. Investors flocked to <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/market-impact-presidential-election-scenarios-trump-harris-stocks-bonds-crypto-2024-10">financial stocks</a> as a popular "Trump trade" in the weeks leading up to the election, with allies of the president-elect stating that Trump planned to <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/if-trump-wins-he-plans-free-wall-street-burdensome-regulations-2024-04-12/">unravel many of the regulations</a> imposed on the banking sector after the 2008 financial crisis.According to Gerard Cassidy, a large-cap bank analyst from RBC Capital Markets, Trump's victory is likely to see some top regulators ousted, including the heads of agencies like the Consumer Protection Bureau and the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency.More banks could also consolidate in the coming years, assuming Trump's cabinet and advisors adopt a "pro-business" stance, Cassidy speculated. Commercial lending could also pick up, potentially causing bank revenue to beat expectations next year, he added."We've been very optimistic and bullish about the bank stocks all year, and last night's win by Trump continues that bullishness," Cassidy said in an interview with <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.cnbc.com/video/2024/11/06/outlook-for-banks-from-a-regulatory-standpoint-is-quite-positive-says-rbcs-gerard-cassidy.html">CNBC</a> Wednesday morning. "We're going to see a real change in anti-trust, and we're going to see a change in banking regulation as well, and that's going to be positive for the banks."Leading up to the election, analysts also said they saw a fresh wave of dealmaking under Trump amid a potentially looser anti-trust stance from his administration. That could result in increased advisory revenue for big banks and help drive up profits.

Bank stocks soar after Donald Trump's election victory

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Stock index trades were mixed Tuesday morning.</li><li>Estimate-beating earnings from three banks set a positive tone on Tuesday.</li></ul>Stocks were mixed Tuesday morning as traders assessed the latest earnings, though several results before the bell helped strike a positive tone in early trading.A trio of Wall Street banks — Citigroup, Goldman Sachs, and Bank of America — all topped third-quarter estimates, potentially giving more firepower to this week's rally.Stocks notched a winning session on Monday that drove the <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/s&amp;p_500?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">S&amp;P 500</a> and <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/dow_jones?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Dow Jones Industrial Average</a> to record closing highs. Estimate-beating reports from JPMorgan and Wells Fargo last week are also helping drive bullish momentum, though gains were more muted as trade kicked off on Tuesday. International oil prices were down sharply, with Brent crude falling 4.27% to $74.15.Though Middle Eastern tensions sparked a rush in oil prices this month, the market's depreciation follows reports that Israel will limit its retaliation against an earlier Iranian missile strike.While earnings will be this week's focal point, investors will also watch for September's retail sales and initial jobless claims to release on Thursday. Among Fed commentary, governor Adriana Kugler and president Mary Daly will speak on Tuesday.Here's where US indexes stood shortly after the 9:30 a.m. opening bell on Tuesday:<ul><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/s&amp;p_500?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">S&amp;P 500</a>: 5,864.41, up 0.08%</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/dow_jones?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Dow Jones Industrial Average</a>: 42,791.76, down 0.63% (-273.46 points)</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/nasdaq_composite?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Nasdaq composite</a>: 18,534.01, up 0.14%</li></ul>Here's what else is going on:<ul><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/financial-stocks-bank-cyclicals-investment-advise-jobs-data-morgan-stanley-2024-10?_gl=1*co3rbk*_ga*MTMxNDIwNDI1Ni4xNjc1Njg3OTU4*_ga_E21CV80ZCZ*MTcyODk5NDM3MS43MjkuMS4xNzI4OTk1OTI5LjYwLjAuMA..">Financial stocks are being woefully underappreciated by investors</a>, Morgan Stanley says.</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-outlook-crash-collapse-black-swan-nassim-taleb-bubble-2024-10?_gl=1*l21opq*_ga*MTMxNDIwNDI1Ni4xNjc1Njg3OTU4*_ga_E21CV80ZCZ*MTcyODk5NDM3MS43MjkuMS4xNzI4OTk2MDU3LjEwLjAuMA..">Risk of collapse looms as markets are the most fragile in 20 years</a>, says "Black Swan" author Nassim Taleb.</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-recession-risk-soft-landing-labor-unemployment-rate-consumer-confidence-2024-10">The US risks being caught off-guard by a recession</a>, Paul Dietrich says.</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/fed-waller-rate-cuts-easing-hot-economy-monetary-policy-2024-10">Fed Governor Waller wants "more caution" on Fed rate cuts as economic data stays hot.</a></li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-outlook-overvalued-sp500-bullish-earnings-momentum-rally-valuations-2024-10?_gl=1*1vwi8z1*_ga*MTMxNDIwNDI1Ni4xNjc1Njg3OTU4*_ga_E21CV80ZCZ*MTcyODk5NDM3MS43MjkuMS4xNzI4OTk2NTMxLjYwLjAuMA..">The stock market is overvalued by 8%, but Piper Sandler says that's no reason to sell</a>.</li></ul>In commodities, bonds, and crypto:<ul><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price?type=wti&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">West Texas Intermediate</a> crude oil dropped 4.19% to $70.73 a barrel.<a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets"> Brent crude</a>, the international benchmark, fell 3.92% to $74.41 a barrel.</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/gold-price?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Gold</a> was nearly flat at $2,666.4 an ounce.</li><li>The 10-year Treasury yield slid two basis points to 4.049%.</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/currencies/btc-usd?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Bitcoin</a> was inched 0.07% lower to $65,918.</li></ul>

Stock market today: Indexes trade mixed as investors sift through big bank earnings

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Investors need to be wary as sticky inflation remains a risk, Deutsche Bank says.</li><li>The firm detailed five reasons why consumer prices could stay persistently elevated.</li></ul>It's tempting to think the Federal Reserve's fight against inflation is over, given the central bank's recent rate cuts and sharpened <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/fed-rate-cut-explained-inflation-labor-market-conditions-outlook-recession-2024-9">focus on the labor market</a>. But it's not yet time for investors to relax, Deutsche Bank wrote on Monday.Though inflation now hovers close to the Federal Reserve's 2% target rate, it's not yet time to declare victory: prices continue to <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/inflation-september-cpi-consumer-price-index-federal-reserve-interest-rates-2024-10">run hotter than expected</a>, and that's happening alongside monetary easing."If inflation does return, this could have very important implications for markets," Deutsche Bank strategists said. "We saw in 2022 how there was a massive selloff across both bonds and equities."The firm detailed five reasons why inflation risks must still be monitored:First, initial interest-rate cuts have been more broader and deeper than expected on a global basis. In the US, the Federal Reserve cut the Fed funds rate by 50 basis points, citing lower headline inflation to justify its aggressive policy flip.While that much is true, history shows that easing cycles are precisely the time to be cautious over inflation, Deutsche said."If inflation does prove sticky above target today, then that could force central banks to keep monetary policy in restrictive territory for longer," the note said.Second, stimulus momentum in China and worsening geopolitics in the Middle East have triggered a notable pickup in commodity prices.Oil prices have jumped this month as investors adjust to escalating tensions between Israel and Iran. After an Iranian missile attack on Israel triggered promises of retaliation, the market has braced for a possible disruption to the region's crude output.<a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Brent</a> crude gained sharply in early October, peaking at $80 per barrel. Deutsche noted this as a considerable high, noting that the international benchmark traded below $70 a barrel just one month prior.If Israel's response decimated Iran's oil installations, analysts expect prices to hit as much as $200 per barrel.Meanwhile, industrial metals such as <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/copper-price">copper</a> have also taken flight, after China announced a series of stimulus measures to reenergize its fleeting economy. The metal is a key component in <a target="_blank" href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/china-copper-iron-ore-stay-stimulus-believers-others-sceptical-russell-2024-10-14/">construction and manufacturing</a>, and can stand to benefit if the world's second-largest economy recovers.Third, odds of a US recession are ebbing as the economy shows signs of resilience that could keep inflation elevated."Much as the stronger news on growth is welcome, it also means that economic demand and inflation is likely to be stronger than it would otherwise have been," analysts wrote.Fourth, September's consumer price index report surprised investors last week.Not only was the inflation reading higher than estimated, core CPI ran at its fastest pace in six months, gaining 0.31%. Core CPI's three-month annualized rate moved up to 3.1%, compared to August's 2.1% print."Although that's only one report, it served as a reminder of how inflation could prove more persistent, and it were the stickier categories in the basket that were holding inflation up," Deutsche wrote. For instance, the Atlanta Fed's "sticky CPI" measure stood at its strongest in five months.Fifth, money supply growth is still accelerating.According to the bank, an increase in this measure can be read as an advance warning that inflation could stay persistently high. This was the case in the post-pandemic period, Deutsche said — though it is admittedly moving up from a low base.The firm cited the fact that in August, US M2 money supply rose 2.0% year-over-year, the highest growth rate since September 2022.

5 reasons why inflation will be stickier than expected going forward, Deutsche Bank says

<ul class="summary-list"><li>A contrarian sell signal recently flashed in the stock market, according to Bank of America.</li><li>The drop below 4% in cash allocations suggests aggressive stock market investing, BofA said.</li></ul>A sell signal in the stock market just flashed for the first time since February 2021, according to a note from <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/stocks/bac-stock">Bank of America.</a>The bank's fund manager survey revealed that cash allocations dropped to 3.9% from 4.2%, representing the lowest level since February 2021.According to the bank, a drop below the 4% level for cash allocations is a sell signal. It's a contrarian sign, as it typically flashes when investors aggressively invest in the stock market with low cash levels.The sell signal has typically preceded weak returns in the short term."Since 2011, there have been 11 prior 'sell' signals which saw global equity returns of -2.5% in the 1 month after and -0.8% in the 3 months after the 'sell' signal was triggered," Bank of America strategist Michael Hartnett said.The sell signal from Bank of America flashes at a time when stocks are trading near record highs. And investors are exhibiting very bullish behavior, according to the note."The biggest jump in investor optimism since Jun'20 on Fed cuts, China stimulus, soft landing," Hartnett said, adding that "froth" is on the rise.Fueling the optimism is expectations that the global economy is on a solid footing and ready to grow in the years ahead. The survey saw global growth expectations rise from -47% to -10%, representing the 5th largest jump since 1994.Meanwhile, 76% of institutional investors surveyed by the bank see a probability of a "soft landing" in the economy, while the prevailing alternative scenario is a "no landing" rather than a "hard landing."The main difference between a soft landing and a hard landing in the economy is how fast the economy will grow going forward rather than contract in a hard landing scenario.As to potential risks in the market, investors are most worried about geopolitical conflicts, which rose to 33% from 19% last month. Other risks on the radar of investors include an increase in inflation and a potential recession.Finally, the most crowded trade continues to be long the Magnificent Seven mega-cap tech stocks, according to the survey."Long Magnificent 7 is considered the most crowded trade (per 43% of investors) followed by #2 long gold (17%), and #3 long China equities (14%)," Hartnett said.

The stock market just flashed a sell signal not seen since February 2021, Bank of America says

<ul class="summary-list"><li>The biggest money managers on Wall Street are shedding billions in stocks for this one tax strategy.</li><li>Tax-loss harvesting allows investors to offset capital gains taxes by selling securities at a loss.</li></ul>It's officially stock-selling season, according to Bank of America.Institutional investors usually increase their selling activity towards the end of the year, and this year was no exception. Bank of America's clients alone sold $1.3 billion in US equities last week. The bank reported that institutional selling activity was 80% higher this October than the historical average.What's the reason behind these elevated levels of security selling? The answer is <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/tax-savings-strategy-offset-gains-income-loss-harvesting-morgan-stanley-2024-10">tax-loss harvesting</a>.Tax-loss harvesting has long been a strategy of Wall Street and the wealthy to reduce their tax bills. They do this by selling underperforming investments for a loss to offset capital gains taxes on other investments sold at a profit. As a result, taxes are only paid on the net profit.You can replicate this strategy in your own portfolio, too. Below are some tips and tricks on how to use it to reduce your taxes, according to Jere Doyle, estate planning strategist at BNY Wealth.<h2 id="68a94438-775f-431a-954e-0e5b2d8dcb75">How tax-loss harvesting works</h2>Investors might look to rebalance some portfolio positions as the end of the year approaches. For example, after this year's incredible runup in tech stocks, some investors might be looking to sell their positions to realize their gains and diversify their holdings.That's where tax-loss harvesting comes in. If you're selling Nvidia stock with a $10,000 gain, you can pair that with a sale of another asset with a $10,000 loss to avoid paying capital gains taxes.You can also front-load your losses, according to Doyle. If you sell one asset at a $10,000 gain and another at a $15,000 loss, you can use up to $3,000 of the loss to offset other ordinary income — and carry forward the remaining $2,000 to subsequent years.Tax-loss harvesting can be especially advantageous in today's environment, according to Doyle.The market has been experiencing heightened volatility from factors such as mega-cap earnings and the election.This environment creates big winners and losers, giving investors plenty of opportunity to recognize losses. Investors shouldn't be scared of pullbacks in a volatile market. Instead, take advantage of price dips in the market to sell losing securities and lower your tax bill.<h2 id="c83964ce-4da2-4126-a044-a3769347944b">Tax-loss harvesting tips and tricks</h2>There are a few things to consider before using a tax-loss harvesting strategy.First, investors should be aware of the wash-sale rule. The wash-sale rule states that if you sell a security at a loss and buy the same or "substantially identical" security in a 30-day timeframe before or after the sale, you cannot use the loss for income tax purposes.Sometimes, people forget about this rule. "They made the mistake of repurchasing those same assets within that 61-day period, and they lose the deductibility of loss," Doyle said.If you want to sell a security at a loss but still want exposure to a specific area of the market, you can use the proceeds of the sale to purchase a similar, but not substantially identical, asset. However, the IRS hasn't provided a clear definition of what constitutes a substantially identical asset, so investors should approach this with caution. Or, you could double down on the asset more than 30 days before selling at a loss.Another piece of advice Doyle: try to match your gains and losses.It might be tempting to record a larger loss than gain to carry it over in subsequent years, but it might not be worth taking the loss if you don't plan to use it for tax-harvesting purposes in the near future."Given the time value of money, those long-term capital gain losses lose their value over a period of time," Doyle said. A $2,000 loss today will be worth less carried over many years in the future — in that case, it would be more advantageous to just record the loss in the future. In other words, don't incur excessive losses today just to be able to use them in the future.Lastly, Doyle recommends thinking through this strategy carefully to make sure it's a good fit for your current portfolio."From an investment point of view, it may not make sense. Maybe the securities you have at a loss are going to bounce back later on. Maybe the securities you're selling at a gain have future appreciation left," Doyle said.Investors should keep in mind that tax-loss harvesting isn't a one-size-fits-all strategy — but if you do have gains and the losses to offset them, the end of the tax year might be a good time to think about implementing this plan.

Bank of America's clients are selling stocks 80% more than normal to use this strategy that allows you to avoid capital gains taxes on big returns

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Inflation and higher interest rates aren't going away, veteran strategist Bill Blain says. </li><li>Blain, the principal of Wind Shift Capital, thinks global inflation is entrenched and rates can't come down much more. </li></ul>Households and companies may be breathing a sigh of relief as borrowing costs move lower, but they shouldn't get comfortable because rates and inflation are going to remain high — and that reality could spark a big drop for stocks in the next year, Wall Street veteran Bill Blain said.Blain, a longtime strategist and principal of Wind Shift Capital Advisors, said he sees a rocky 12 months ahead for the stock market. He said the Fed isn't poised to take interest rates as low as markets think, and borrowing costs could indeed rise from here. That could crimp lending, slow dealmaking, and take US and global stocks down 7%-12%, he told Business Insider in an interview."I think the crunch that we face is what happens when interest rates start to rise, and governments are not in a position to continue boosting the economy in an interest rate rising environment because they've lost the support of markets," Blain said.In the event of a credit crunch, he doubts the US will be able to dole out stimulus as it did during the pandemic, due to concerns about the overall level of debt and the inflationary impact on the economy."It's the reality that inflation is going to creep back into the global economy. Interest rates are going to have to rise," he said.<h2 id="7ebcc035-7ccc-4daa-908a-a2cb4f6ad8aa">A return to higher-for-longer</h2>Blain's forecast may sound counterintuitive to investors who have been pricing in ambitious rate cuts from the central bank. But the US economy faces too many inflationary pressures over the medium-term to warrant aggressive policy easing, Blain said.For one, the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/harris-trump-fix-national-debt-how-to-invest-portfolio-protection-2024-10">federal debt</a> has swelled to a historic $35 trillion. Economists have flagged rapid government borrowing as a factor that risks <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-debt-problem-explained-deficit-gdp-inflation-economy-interest-rates-2024-4">stoking inflation</a>.Meanwhile, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/rates-pandemic-lows-inflation-supply-chain-geopolitical-bofa-mensah-2024-10">supply chain issues</a> linger, and given rising geopolitical tensions, world trade looks on track to be more <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/world-turning-its-back-on-globalization-2016-4">fragmented</a><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/world-turning-its-back-on-globalization-2016-4">,</a> which can also prop up inflation.Finally, the threat of high tariffs from former President Donald Trump would impose a tax on nearly all imported US goods that economists say would end up being <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.kentclarkcenter.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/RESULTS-2024-09-11-Survey-14.pdf">passed on to the consumer</a>. "I think inflation is going to be more ingrained, as it was in the 1970s and early '80s," Blain said. "It's going to be a very, very different economy and we just need to get used to it."Other forecasters have warned inflation could be much stickier than markets expect. Core inflation is unlikely to fall back to the Fed's 2% target, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.blackrock.com/us/individual/insights/blackrock-investment-institute/weekly-commentary">BlackRock</a> strategists said in a recent note, pointing to large US budget deficits and other "mega-forces" that will propel prices higher. That means investors waiting for a return to near-zero borrowing costs to return will be in for a rude awakening. Blain thinks interest rates will hover between 4.5%-6% in the "new normal," causing interest payments to "go through the roof" when compared to pre-pandemic levels, he said.Companies could take a hit as the credit crunch plays out. Though Blain said he wasn't necessarily calling for a market crash or a wave of "zombie" firm failures, he thinks dealmaking in the private equity space could slow, while some of the most financially troubled firms risk insolvency.Meanwhile, stock prices will head back to a much more reasonable level as the speculative bubble in asset prices pops."I think there's still a massive hangover from the 2010 to 2022 era of ultra-low interest rates and easing and I think stocks are generally still priced for speculation and lower interest rates," he said of his predicted downside to the market. "I don't think there's any reason to really expect major interest rate cuts."Still, investors are feeling pretty positive about the short-term outlook for stocks and lower rates. Markets see a 95% chance the Fed will cut rates by 25 basis points at the November policy meeting, and a 72% chance that rates will be 50 basis points lower by the end of the year, according to the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html">CME FedWatch tool</a>.

Inflation isn't going anywhere, and higher rates could spark a 12% downturn for stocks in the coming year, veteran strategist says  

<ul class="summary-list"><li><keyword id="23254035" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="home-improvement-retailers" source="keywords">Home improvement retailers</keyword> are among the first to see a lift from the Fed's rate cut.</li><li>Share prices for <keyword id="20320193" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Home-Depot" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="Home Depot" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="Home Depot">Home Depot</keyword> and <keyword id="23254034" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Lowes" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="Lowe's" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="Lowe's">Lowe's</keyword> are up, and <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/fed-interest-rates-cut-jerome-powell-labor-market-mortgage-pantheon-2024-9">spending on projects is expected to follow</a>.</li></ul>The US Federal Reserve's decision Wednesday to <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/fed-cuts-interest-rates-how-much-september-fomc-powell-inflation-2024-9">cut rates by half a percentage point</a> has created a flurry of immediate reactions, but the real effects of the policy are likely to take several months to bear out. Still, some areas of the economy are already seeing a lift in response to the news — and the fact that the Fed went with the larger of the two most likely options under consideration. <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/comparing-lowes-vs-home-depot-2023-12">Home improvement retailers,</a> in particular, are among the companies who were primed to come out of the gate strong with a rate cut, and, true to form, shares for Home Depot and Lowe's were up as of Thursday's market close. "Home-related companies should soon see the beginnings of fundamental recovery exiting this year," Mizuho analyst David Bellinger told Business Insider. "Aside from any initial noise in the market, Home Depot and Lowe's should keep grinding higher as all this comes together." And while a rising <keyword id="19998639" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="stock-price" source="keywords">stock price</keyword> carries its own benefits for a company, the uptick is a signal of a much more important change still to come: sales. Executives for both Home Depot and Lowe's have characterized their businesses as being constrained by low housing turnover and high borrowing costs, both of which are results of the Fed's tight interest rate policy. Home Depot CFO Richard McPhail described his company's core customer as having "<a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/home-depot-earnings-americans-in-deferral-mindset-consumer-spending-2024-8">a deferral mindset</a>" in spite of being in a generally healthy financial position. In short, most <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/americans-doing-less-diy-worrying-sign-economy-lowes-earnings-2024-8">big-ticket spending on home improvement</a> comes from one of two places: people buying and selling homes and homeowners renovating existing homes with borrowed money. Unless they have to fix something urgently, a lot of folks have decided they're better off waiting to upgrade. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell talked about the impact on the <keyword id="20759748" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="housing-market" source="keywords">housing market</keyword> in his remarks following Wednesday's announcement. "The housing market is in part frozen because of lock-in with low rates. People don't want to sell their home," he said. "As rates come down, people will start to move more, and that's probably beginning to happen already." What's more, Powell signaled in his speech that further cuts are likely if the data support them, which can encourage some of those sitting on the sidelines to go ahead with a new mortgage or credit line with the expectation that they can simply <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/personal-finance/personal-loans/how-to-refinance-personal-loan">refinance</a> in a few months when rates come down further. Additionally, Home Depot and Lowe's have taken great care to manage investor expectations through the <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/lowes-dicks-macys-sound-alarm-us-shoppers-spending-2023-8">slumping sales and slimmer profits</a> over the past year. In particular, both companies <a target="_blank" class="c-link" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/home-depot-1-billion-wage-boost-improved-worker-safety-satisfaction-2023-5">continued to invest in their stores</a> with the expectation that pent-up demand would eventually be unlocked. (Truist Securities analyst Scot Ciccarelli has referred several times to a "coiled spring" for the retailers.) Max Rakhlenko, a TD Securities analyst, said in a note on Wednesday that Lowe's management was expecting a "phased recovery" in which homeowners start with smaller projects before getting more comfortable with larger ones that require tapping into their house's equity. "We're aggressively working in this downturn," Lowe's CEO Marvin Ellison said during his earnings call last month, adding, "Whenever the macro inflection occurs, we just want to be ready to take advantage of it." It appears Ellison may not have to wait much longer. Correction: September 20, 2024 — An earlier version of this story misstated the day a TD Securities analyst sent out his note on Lowe's. It was Wednesday, not Thursday.

Home Depot and Lowe's are already seeing the first of many likely benefits from the Fed's rate cut

<ul class="summary-list"><li>JPMorgan's top strategist had something positive to say about stocks for the first time in a while.</li><li>JPMorgan chief equity strategist Dubravko Lakos-Bujas said investors should get less defensive.</li></ul>Strategists at JPMorgan <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-outlook-risk-fed-hawkish-policy-error-marko-kolanovic-2022-10?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">have been bearish on the stock market</a> since October 2022.But that seems to be changing, based on a Tuesday note from <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/stocks/jpm-stock?miRedirects=1&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">JPMorgan</a> chief global equity strategist Dubravko Lakos-Bujas.While Lakos-Bujas didn't update his firm's year-end <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/s&amp;p_500">S&amp;P 500</a> price target of 4,200, which implies a steep 27% decline from current levels, he did recommend investors turn less bearish on the market."We are neutralizing our long Defensive and short Cyclicals view," Lakos-Bujas said.The Federal Reserve cutting interest rates and <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-stimulus-fix-economy-xi-jinping-stock-market-2024-10">China unleashing new stimulus measures</a> are driving the change in Lakos'-Bujas' sentiment."Policy support from the world's largest economies are coming at a time of surprisingly resilient US growth with tight labor markets, ongoing government deficit spending, and record highs across equities, credit, and housing," Lakos-Bujas said.The bank also pointed to the solid health of US consumers, who have <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/americans-richest-theyve-ever-been-with-164-trillion-net-worth-2024-9">collectively added $50 trillion to their wealth since Covid.</a>According to data from the Federal Reserve, US consumers have about $185 trillion in assets, made up mostly of stocks and bonds, homes, and cash, and just $21 trillion in debts. That's <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/americans-richest-theyve-ever-been-with-164-trillion-net-worth-2024-9">a healthy balance sheet.</a>Lakos-Bujas is also encouraged by solid corporate earnings growth, which is expected to accelerate from 3% over the past two years to 12% over the next two years."US corporates have been increasingly focused on recycling pre-tax income into investment spending rather than returning after-tax profits to shareholders through buybacks, which is also helping to stimulate the economy," Lakos-Bujas explained.Part of that has been driven by the AI tech boom, with mega-cap tech companies expected to accelerate their R&amp;D and capex investments to more than $500 billion per year."In our view, these drivers, along with US Exceptionalism, are helping offset the uneven macro weakness," Lakos-Bujas said.He added: "While it is too soon to assume that this is a turning point, it does suggest that a recession is unlikely in the near term, especially since surprisingly strong job growth and a downtick in the unemployment rate broke a slowing trend in the job market."But Lakos-Bujas didn't turn completely bullish on stocks. The strategist warned that the November Presidential election could inject volatility into markets depending on the outcome, and lower interest rates could represent a headwind for corporate profits, particularly in the financial sector.

One of Wall Street's biggest bears is turning upbeat on the stock market for the first time in 2 years

<ul class="summary-list"><li>More than half of the stock market's post-Trump-election rally has been erased.</li><li>The turning point came Thursday, when Fed Chair Powell said the central bank will take its time cutting rates.</li></ul>And just like that, half of the stock market's euphoric post-Trump-election gain is gone.Major US indexes sold off sharply on Friday, with the tech-heavy Nasdaq leading the way, as investors came to terms with the fact that they may not get a December rate cut as previously expected.The turning point came on Thursday, when Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said he and the central bank are in <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-today-federal-reserve-inflation-jerome-powell-interest-rates-2024-10">no hurry to cut rates</a>, given the positive signals being sent by the economy.Stocks turned lower in afternoon trading, and that pressure continued through Friday. The <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/s&amp;p_500">S&amp;P 500</a> fell as much as 1.6%, and has now given back more than half of its torrid 4% post-election gain. The <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/nasdaq_composite">Nasdaq Composite</a> dropped 2.7% at intraday lows.The S&amp;P 500 fell 2.2% this week, while the Dow Jones industrial average lost 1.2% and the Nasdaq slid 3.2%.The losses have come as the odds for a 25-basis-point rate cut in December have fallen. Investors are now pricing in a 58% probability of one at the next meeting, down from around 80% before Powell's address, according to the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html">CME FedWatch Tool</a>.The comments from the central-bank head come amid a promising streak of US economic data. On Friday, retail-sales data showed signs of strength, and on Thursday, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-today-trump-jerome-powell-federal-reserve-inflation-data-2024-11">jobless-claims figures</a> came in surprisingly light.Stock investors have been grappling with what Trump will ultimately mean for the market now that the dust is settling on a buy-everything rush. Concerns have been raised around whether Trump's protectionist trade policies will drive inflation higher, possibly necessitating eventual rate hikes.Until now, investors had seemed content to focus on Trump plan to cut taxes and deregulate. But it now seems that Jerome Powell has given them something else to think — and worry — about.Here's where US indexes stood at the 4 p.m. closing bell on Friday:<ul><li><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/s&amp;p_500">S&amp;P 500</a>: 5,870.62, down 1.3%</li><li><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/dow_jones">Dow Jones Industrial Average</a>: 43,444.99, down 0.7% (306 points)</li><li><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/nasdaq_composite">Nasdaq composite</a>: 18,680.12, down 2.2%</li></ul>Here's what else is going on:<ul><li><a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-trade-election-stock-market-impact-chart-analysis-bonds-crypto-2024-11">5 charts</a> that show Trump's immense post-election market impact, from BofA.</li><li><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/health-stocks-trump-appointment-vaccines-rfk-moderna-2024-11">Health stocks slid</a> after Trump appoints vaccine-skeptic RFK Jr.</li><li>UBS says Trump's plan to <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-housing-plan-federal-lands-tax-incentives-mortgage-rates-ubs-2024-11">build homes on federal land</a> could push housing prices higher.</li><li>The oil market faces a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/oil-outlook-supply-crude-prices-us-production-china-opec-2024-11">deep surplus next year</a> amid weak Chinese and demand record US production, IEA says.</li></ul>In commodities, bonds, and crypto:<ul><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price?type=wti&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">West Texas Intermediate crude</a> slid 2.5% to $67.01 a barrel</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Brent crude</a>, the international benchmark, fell 2% to $71.11 a barrel.</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/gold-price?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Gold</a> slid 0.2% to $2,567.60 an ounce.</li><li>The <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/rates/u-s--rates-10-years?miRedirects=1">10-year Treasury yield</a> rose less than one basis point to 4.44%.</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/currencies/btc-usd?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Bitcoin</a> rose 3.5% to $91,271.20.</li></ul>

The stock market's Trump honeymoon is turning sour

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Indexes climbed on Thursday after the huge post-election rally in the previous session. </li><li>Traders will shift their attention to the Fed, which is expected to announce a 25-basis-point rate cut. </li></ul>Indexes edged up on Thursday, heading for another day of gains after Donald Trump's election victory <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/trump-election-win-stock-market-today-record-high-sp500-dow-2024-11?_gl=1*16d1s21*_ga*MTY3OTgyNjg0MS4xNzIxMDE2MDM2*_ga_E21CV80ZCZ*MTczMDk4NTQ0OS4zNzUuMS4xNzMwOTg5NDc2LjMwLjAuMA..">fueled a massive rally across the stock market on Wednesday.</a>The Dow Jones Industrial Average was just slightly higher after surging <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/trump-victory-stock-market-today-dow-tsla-djt-bitcoin-yields-2024-11?_gl=1*1okordg*_ga*MTY3OTgyNjg0MS4xNzIxMDE2MDM2*_ga_E21CV80ZCZ*MTczMDk4NTQ0OS4zNzUuMS4xNzMwOTg5NDk1LjExLjAuMA..">over 1,500 points</a>, up 3.6% in its biggest single-day percentage gain in two years.Bank stocks and tech shares rallied in the session, fueled by hopes for a lighter regulatory touch and corporate tax cuts under Trump. Bitcoin also gained, given Trump's <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/donald-trump-going-for-crypto-bro-vote-world-liberty-financial-2024-9?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">pro-crypto stance</a>.On Thursday, investors will turn their attention toward the Federal Reserve, which is expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points. That would continue the central bank's easing cycle, which kicked off with a jumbo 50 basis point cut in September. After this month's meeting, fed fund futures show the outlook for monetary policy <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-win-fed-pause-rate-cuts-easing-jpmorgan-david-kelly-2024-11">becomes less clear</a>, with expectations for further cuts declining in the last week. Markets are adjusting to the reality of a second Trump presidency, which economists have said would likely drive inflation if he enacts campaign proposals like broad tariffs and mass deportations. The latest data on Thursday showed weekly jobless claims increased slightly to 221,000, a gain of 3,000 from the week prior and in line with expectations.Here's where US indexes stood shortly after the 9:30 a.m. opening bell on Thursday:<ul><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/s&amp;p_500?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">S&amp;P 500</a>: 5,950.88, up 0.37% </li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/dow_jones?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Dow Jones Industrial Average</a>: 43,754.89, up 0.06% (+24.86. points)</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/nasdaq_composite?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Nasdaq composite</a>: 19,114.17, up 0.69%</li></ul>Here's what else is going on:<ul><li><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/us-election-trump-stock-rally-rise-sp500-outlook-regulation-mergers-2024-11?_gl=1*1y0bf0i*_ga*MTY3OTgyNjg0MS4xNzIxMDE2MDM2*_ga_E21CV80ZCZ*MTczMDk4NTQ0OS4zNzUuMS4xNzMwOTg5NDQ2LjYwLjAuMA..">3 post-election reasons</a> why stocks will rise into year-end, according to Goldman Sachs.</li><li>"Crypto president" Donald Trump has <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/bitcoin-price-btc-record-high-donald-trump-victory-presidential-election-2024-11?_gl=1*bputk0*_ga*MTY3OTgyNjg0MS4xNzIxMDE2MDM2*_ga_E21CV80ZCZ*MTczMDk4NTQ0OS4zNzUuMS4xNzMwOTg5NTExLjYwLjAuMA..">investors cheering</a> as bitcoin hits record.</li><li>These 5 billionaires were the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/billionaires-net-worth-trump-stock-market-nvidia-tesla-2024-11?_gl=1*n9h555*_ga*MTY3OTgyNjg0MS4xNzIxMDE2MDM2*_ga_E21CV80ZCZ*MTczMDk4NTQ0OS4zNzUuMS4xNzMwOTg5NTM0LjM3LjAuMA..">biggest net-worth winners</a> on Wednesday as stocks surged.</li><li>There's a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/bonds/surging-treasury-yields-after-trump-win-show-borrowers-may-not-get-relief-2024-11?_gl=1*zwkckg*_ga*MTY3OTgyNjg0MS4xNzIxMDE2MDM2*_ga_E21CV80ZCZ*MTczMDk4NTQ0OS4zNzUuMS4xNzMwOTg5NjAyLjMxLjAuMA..">big warning sign</a> for consumers flashing as stocks surge.</li></ul>In commodities, bonds, and crypto:<ul><li>Oil futures fell. <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price?type=wti">West Texas Intermediate crude</a> dipped 0.5% to $71.30 a barrel. <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Brent crude</a>, the international benchmark, fell 0.4% to $74.62 a barrel.</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/gold-price?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Gold</a> rose 0.8% to $2,697.40 an ounce.</li><li>The 10-year Treasury yield slipped three basis points to 4.396%.</li><li><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/currencies/btc-usd">Bitcoin</a> edged up to $74,891. </li></ul>

You Searched For "go first bank stocks" and got 11 results

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The stock market just flashed a sell signal not seen since February 2021, Bank of America says

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Bank of America's clients are selling stocks 80% more than normal to use this strategy that allows you to avoid capital gains taxes on big returns

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Inflation isn't going anywhere, and higher rates could spark a 12% downturn for stocks in the coming year, veteran strategist says

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Home Depot and Lowe's are already seeing the first of many likely benefits from the Fed's rate cut

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One of Wall Street's biggest bears is turning upbeat on the stock market for the first time in 2 years

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