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New Delhi: Steel companies in the country are likely to face margin pressure in the third quarter of FY25 as muted steel prices compress spreads, according to a report by Axis Securities. The report stated that the weak demand in China and higher exports from the country have been identified as key factors behind the decline in steel prices. The report highlighted that <keyword id="24048830" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Chinese-steel-exports" source="keywords">Chinese steel exports</keyword> reached 92 million tonnes per annum (MTPA) between January and October 2024, marking a 22 per cent year-on-year increase. This has led to an oversupply in the global market, weighing down prices domestically. It said "Weak Chinese domestic demand along with higher Chinese exports has led to a decline in steel prices in India. Chinese steel exports from Jan'24 to Oct'24 stood at 92 MTPA, up 22 per cent YoY" In India, the average price of hot-rolled coil (HRC) steel in the trader's market in Mumbai fell by 8 per cent year-on-year and 6 per cent quarter-on-quarter to Rs 51,802 per tonne in the second quarter of FY25. Spot prices have further declined to Rs 49,000 per tonne, 5 per cent lower than the Q2FY25 average. The report also noted some signs of recovery in China's residential property sector, with increased transactions in major cities following policy measures aimed at boosting demand. However, challenges remain, as the three-month moving average of year-to-date floor space declined by 19 per cent year-on-year in September 2024, remaining in negative territory. It said "China's residential property sector is showing some signs of improvement with the transactions in major cities rising after recent policy measures introduced to boost demand". On the global front, the report noted that the probability of a 25-basis point rate cut by the US Federal Reserve in its December 2024 meeting has fallen to 58.9 per cent, down from 76.8 per cent in October 2024, owing to strong economic data from the US. Additionally, China has removed a 13 per cent export rebate on aluminum and copper, effective December 1, 2024, in response to anticipated tariff measures by the new US administration. These developments highlight the ongoing challenges and potential shifts in the global and domestic steel and metals markets.

Falling steel prices amid Chinese export surge, to reduce profits of companies in Q3 FY25: Report

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Oil could see a decline to a "much, much" lower price, according to crude analyst Tom Kloza.</li><li>Oversupply will weigh on oil prices in 2025, Kloza predicted.</li></ul>The oil market is headed into a troubled year in 2025, and crude prices may fall "much, much" lower, according to Tom Kloza, global head of energy analysis at Oil Price Information Service.The oil analyst said crude prices would experience more downward pressure in 2025 despite concerns that <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/oil-price-outlook-israel-iran-geopolitics-middle-east-war-crude-2024-10">conflict in the Middle East</a> could escalate and send prices higher.Traders shouldn't bet on supply disruptions in the Middle East, and the world is already so oversupplied with oil that prices are bound to drop, he said <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QP9h3rnAf2c">in an interview with CNBC</a> on Wednesday.The US <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/us-oil-crude-production-record-opec-cuts-russia-saudi-arabia-2024-3">produced more oil than any other country</a> in history in 2023, according to data from the Energy Information Administration. The <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-oil-production-boom-crude-supply-wti-price-goldman-sachs-2024-7">production boom will likely last until at least 2026,</a> Goldman Sachs previously estimated, pointing to factors like increased drilling efficiency. OPEC+, the oil cartel led by Saudi Arabia, is also expected to churn out more crude oil by the end of the year, Kloza said, pointing to a recent ministerial meeting that reviewed oil market conditions."It was pointing lower, and I think it's still pointing lower. Because, you have to consider that there's probably around 600,000 or 700,000 [barrels] of additional crude for export that's going to come out as temperatures moderate in Saudi Arabia and Iraq," Kloza said. "You have a market that's pointed to the downside."Kloza brushed off concerns that supply disruptions could arise from conflict in the Middle East."It's not a probability. It's a little like, there's a possibility that the Giants and the Jets could be winning the Super Bowl this year, but I wouldn't be betting on it," he said.Kloza said big investors are also no longer trying to "chase" oil, which he believed could limit the upside of crude prices.He pointed to estimates from other energy forecasters, who have predicted that oil prices could trade as low as $50 a barrel, a decline of about 37% from where Brent crude was trading on Thursday. "I think that oil is destined for much, much lower numbers, and whoever wins the presidency next month is going to have a problem of maybe a little bit of oil deflation. All the balances for 2025 point to more oil than the world really needs, and if you have OPEC+ coming back to the market with some of that production that they cut, I think it's a real problem in 2025," he said.Brent crude was up by about 3.7% on Thursday, while US oil prices 3.6%.

Oil oversupply could send prices tumbling in 2025, energy analyst says 

As the results season kicks in, the <keyword id="20097634" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="quarterly-earnings" source="keywords">quarterly earnings</keyword> numbers of several <keyword id="22405488" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="blue-chip-firms" source="keywords">blue-chip firms</keyword> — such as <keyword id="19906778" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Infosys" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="Infosys" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="Infosys">Infosys</keyword> and Reliance Industries — along with <keyword id="20837523" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="global-trends" source="keywords">global trends</keyword> and <keyword id="20223116" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="trading-activity" source="keywords">trading activity</keyword> of foreign investors, will determine <keyword id="22405487" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="equity-market-movement" source="keywords">equity market movement</keyword> in the holiday-shortened week ahead, according to analysts. The domestic <keyword id="22405489" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="WPI-inflation-data" source="keywords">WPI inflation data</keyword> for June — scheduled to be announced on Monday — will also influence trading sentiments, traders said. Markets will remain closed on Wednesday for Muharram. Among major quarterly earnings to be tracked this week are from HDFC Life Insurance Company, Bajaj Auto, BPCL, JSW Steel, Asian Paints, Infosys, and Reliance Industries. "Q1 earnings will be a key focus this week as numerous companies, including heavyweights Infosys, and Reliance, are set to release their results. Additionally, <keyword id="22194639" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="pre-Budget-discussions" source="keywords">pre-Budget discussions</keyword> are expected to contribute to market volatility," Santosh Meena, Head of Research, Swastika Investmart Ltd, said. On the global front, a significant focus will be on China. The country is scheduled to announce its GDP and Industrial Production (IIP) numbers, Meena said. "Other global factors to watch include the speech by the US Federal Reserve Chairman, US retail sales figures, and macroeconomic data from Japan," he added. Meanwhile, IT services company HCL Tech on Friday posted a 20.4 per cent rise in consolidated net profit to Rs 4,257 crore for the June-ended quarter and gave a revenue growth guidance of 3-5 per cent for FY25 on GenAI diversification and strong operational execution. "On Monday, markets will react to India's inflation data. Key results this week include Jio Financial Services, HDFC Life, Asian Paints, LTIMindtree, Infosys, Wipro, JSW Steel, Paytm, etc. Also globally, investors will take cues from China's GDP numbers, US core retail sales data, and ECB (European Central Bank) interest rate decision," Siddhartha Khemka, Head, Retail Research, Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd, said. Retail inflation increased to four-month high of 5.08 per cent in June as food items, including vegetables, became dearer, according to government data released on Friday. Vinod Nair, Head of Research, Geojit Financial Services, said, "We expect stock-specific moves to gain traction due to the ongoing earnings season; indeed, IT will be in the limelight due to the good start to the earnings and outlook." In the week ahead, economic data like China GDP, EuroZone CPI inflation, ECB policy, and the US Fed chair speech will be watched by investors to get cues on market momentum, Nair added. On a weekly basis, the BSE benchmark jumped 522.74 points, or 0.65 per cent, while the Nifty climbed 178.3 points, or 0.73 per cent. The 30-share BSE Sensex jumped 622 points, or 0.78 per cent, to settle at a record closing level of 80,519.34 on Friday. During the day, it zoomed 996.17 points, or 1.24 per cent, to hit an all-time high of 80,893.51. The NSE Nifty surged 186.20 points, or 0.77 per cent, to settle at a record closing high of 24,502.15. Intra-day, it jumped 276.25 points, or 1.13 per cent, to hit a new lifetime peak of 24,592.20.

Trading activity to hinge on Q1 results, global trends in holiday-shortened week: analysts

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Falling steel prices amid Chinese export surge, to reduce profits of companies in Q3 FY25: Report

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Oil oversupply could send prices tumbling in 2025, energy analyst says

Jennifer Sor

Trading activity to hinge on Q1 results, global trends in holiday-shortened week: analysts

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