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We all have been hearing of about <keyword id="6366055" type="ORGANIZATION" weightage="80" keywordseo="global-warming">global warming</keyword> for long, and the state is going worse. You would be surprised to know that the world’s cities account for 60- 80% of global greenhouse gas emissions. This clearly shows how we are getting closer to our DOOM, but we can reverse the situation if we can reduce our carbon footprint and become an energy-efficient city like Reykjavik, Oslo, and others listed in the infographic below. 
 
 
 
Image credit: <a href="http://www.halfprice.com.au/">Halfprice.com.au</a>

Meet the
10 most energy efficient cities of the world

<div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table"><div><div class="image on-image">RBSAlison Rose, who was appointed as the first female CEO of RBS.</div></div></div><ul class="summary-list"><li style="font-weight: 400;">Alison Rose will succeed Ross McEwan as CEO of RBS on November 1. </li><li style="font-weight: 400;"><a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/rbs-appoints-alison-rose-to-succeed-ross-mcewan-as-ceo-effective-nov-1-1028539987">The recent announcement</a> of Rose's appointment brings another woman to the forefront as a leader in global finance. </li><li style="font-weight: 400;">Stanford researchers <a href="https://www.gsb.stanford.edu/insights/do-investors-really-care-about-gender-diversity">published a study</a> last week suggesting that a firm revealing a high level of gender diversity causes stock prices to go up. </li><li style="font-weight: 400;">To highlight banks that are leading in gender diversity, Business Insider compiled the following list of some of the top female leaders in global finance, and what they have to say about the issue.</li><li style="font-weight: 400;"><a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/prime?module=article&amp;area=summary">Click here for more BI Prime stories.</a></li></ul>One of the "big four" banks in Britain has appointed its first ever female leader: Alison Rose is set to become CEO of RBS on November 1. The announcement comes on the heels of <a href="https://www.gsb.stanford.edu/insights/do-investors-really-care-about-gender-diversity">a new report</a> highlighting that shareholders penalize finance firms that don't hire enough women. In fact, the research found that not only does gender diversity in higher levels of leadership create a precedent for future female leaders, it also has measurable effects on companies."This goes beyond saying diversity is a good idea because it's ethical," Dr. Margaret Ann Neale, distinguished professor of management and researcher at the Stanford Graduate School of Business, <a href="https://www.gsb.stanford.edu/insights/do-investors-really-care-about-gender-diversity">told Stanford GSB</a>. "Shareholders are saying, 'If you're not as diverse as we want you to be, there are going to be economic consequences.'"Women in senior leadership positions are rare, particularly in the financial sector. Banks have been vocal about working to add more women to senior ranks, but this was undermined by <a href="https://fortune.com/longform/banking-finance-women-ceos-wall-street">a moment in April of this year</a>, when Rep. Al Green (D‑Texas) asked the CEOs of Goldman Sachs, Citigroup, JPMorgan Chase, Morgan Stanley, Bank of America, State Street Corp., and Bank of New York Mellon if they believed their successor would be a woman or a person of color. Not one CEO raised his hand.This anecdotal piece fits into the an unfortunate bigger picture: There are <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/fortune-500-companies-women-ceos-2018-8">only 25 female CEOs in the Fortune 500</a>. Despite the progress that needs to be made, there are silver linings. The Stanford GSB researchers noticed that companies in the financial sector with greater gender diversity saw a rise in stock prices. When the researchers looked at why investors appear affected by gender diversity, they found that investors thought that gender-diverse firms were more ethical, less likely to draw in negative political attention, and more likely to think outside of the box. Many women in the financial sector are paving the way forward within their companies. Here's Business Insider's list highlighting 19 of the most powerful women in global finance. <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/intelligence/10-up-and-coming-fintechs-2019?IR=T&amp;itm_source=businessinsider&amp;itm_medium=ctgr_bii&amp;itm_term=ctgr_leadgen&amp;itm_content=finance&amp;itm_campaign=10-up-and-coming-fintechs-2019"></a>

19 of the most powerful women in global finance

<div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table float_right"><div><div class="image on-image"><a href="http://www.gettyimages.com/license/614357550">Joe Raedle/Getty Images</a>Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump speaks during a campaign rally at the South Florida Fair Expo Center on October 13, 2016 in West Palm Beach, Florida.</div></div></div>In a fiery speech <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/trump-denies-sexual-assault-allegations-2016-10">discrediting several women</a> accusing him of sexual misconduct, Donald Trump deflected the attention from his alleged indiscretions to the power of a "global power structure" out to "destroy" him.<a href="http://www.npr.org/2016/10/13/497857068/transcript-donald-trumps-speech-responding-to-assault-accusations?utm_source=twitter.com&amp;utm_campaign=politics&amp;utm_medium=social&amp;utm_term=nprnews">Speaking at a rally in West Palm Beach</a>, Florida, on Thursday, the Republican presidential candidate sought to pin this election as the "last chance" his supporters have at overthrowing the "corrupt" establishment - of the media, government, special interests, and corporations all working in concert."It's a global power structure that is responsible for the economic decisions that have robbed our working class, stripped our country of its wealth and put that money into the pockets of a handful of large corporations and political entities," Trump told the crowd. "For them it's a war, and for them nothing at all is out of bounds. This is a struggle for the survival of our nation, believe me. And this will be our last chance to save it on November 8 - remember that."After a <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/trump-leaked-recording-women-audio-billy-bush-2016-10">2005 tape of Trump</a> saying obscene things about women surfaced on Friday, and <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/two-women-new-york-times-donald-trump-2016-10">multiple women accused him</a> of unwanted, inappropriate contact on Wednesday, his campaign appeared to be unraveling. <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/trump-tape-republicans-withdrew-endorsements-obscene-video-comments-2016-10">Prominent Republicans withdrew their endorsements</a>. <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/can-trump-win-the-election-2016-10">Polls showed</a> his Democratic opponent Hillary Clinton surging to victory.Trump has been espousing anti-establishment rhetoric since he entered the race, but his denunciations on Thursday were spiced with a renewed vigor, seeming to galvanize and reassure his base.In the Palm Beach speech, he suggested that the media and the banks, in particular, were working to elect the "Clinton machine" so that they could stay in power, and that they were behind the personal attacks lobbed against him in the last week - taking an almost apocalyptic tone."For those who control the levers of power in Washington, and for the global special interests, they partner with these people that don't have your good in mind. Our campaign represents a true existential threat like they haven't seen before," Trump said. "This is not simply another four-year election. This is a crossroads in the history of our civilization that will determine whether or not we the people reclaim control over our government."Some, including the head of the Anti-Defamation League, cautioned that Trump's specific attacks on the media and the banks were "Fascist code for 'Jews'," the <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2016/10/14/us/politics/trump-comments-linked-to-antisemitism.html?_r=0">New York Times reported</a>.<a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2016/10/13/7e715de4-9186-11e6-a6a3-d50061aa9fae_story.html?tid=sm_tw">Sean Sullivan with The Washington Post wrote</a> that this belief the "global power structure" was out to get him fit into Trump's support for other conspiracy theories - from the President Barack Obama birther fiasco to suggesting his Republican primary opponent Ted Cruz's father was connected to John F. Kennedy's assassination.Only 26 days and one final debate stand between the American people and a new president. As Trump said to close his speech:"Our Independence Day is at hand, and it arrives finally on Nov. 8." <div class="margin-top"> <h3>NOW WATCH: <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/donald-trump-responds-latest-sexual-assault-claims-politics-2016-10">'Totally and absolutely false': Trump vehemently denies sexual assault allegations</a></h3> <div> <div> <div class="ooyala-video-player" data-video-autoplay="false" data-video-id="kwaWZuNjE6co0Tr1woIYgp-u2ry0oW-s" data-player-variable="ooyalapopvideo" id="ooyalaplayer_popvideo" style="width:1280px;height:720px"></div> </div> </div> </div>

TRUMP: 'A global power structure' is trying to take down my campaign

<ul class="summary-list"><li>India's Prime Minister Narendra Modi won a narrower-than-expected reelection victory.</li><li>But the setback likely won't deter his global ambitions.</li></ul>India's Prime Minister <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/indian-election-results-shocking-blow-narendra-modi-2024-6">Narendra Modi</a> emerged from Tuesday's election victory with his air of invincibility damaged.The strongman leader of the world's largest democracy had been predicted to win reelection for a third term by a landslide.But his Bharatiya Janata Party <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/india-election-results-narendra-modi-bjp-congress-2024-6">failed to gain enough seats</a> to claim outright victory, and it will need the support of coalition partners to form a government.The result, though, is unlikely to deter Modi, as he continues to pursue one of the core goals of his decade in power: transforming India into one of the world's most powerful nations.<h2 id="272ba8df-0d6b-4e4a-960e-7da93df8450f">A leader of the Global South</h2>Under Modi, India's growth has put it <a target="_blank" href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/benjaminlaker/2024/02/23/india-to-become-third-largest-economy-by-2027-implications-for-leaders/?sh=58b178754fd5">on the path</a> to becoming the world's third-biggest economy by 2027 — and it has become an important and increasingly abrasive global power player.Modi wants to position India as a leader of the Global South — a term often used to describe a group of developing nations — and for it to have a permanent position on the UN Security Council to mark its new global status.He has strengthened ties with the US, a long-standing ally, but he's also sought to build ties with Russia and has clashed with Asia's chief power, China.Modi will work to cement his foreign-policy legacy in his third term.<h2 id="c3e5a4c5-0e40-407e-a012-9b6448008edc">Countering Chinese aggression</h2>Richard Rossow, a senior advisor at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, told Business Insider that countering China's aggression and seeking foreign investment will be key focuses for Modi going forward."India's main priorities will remain unchanged," he said.A clash between India and China in June 2020 over a long-simmering Himalayan border dispute resulted in the death of 20 Indian soldiers. Meanwhile, tensions in the Indian Ocean are escalating, with <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-produces-vast-undersea-maps-submarine-warfare-report-says-2024-1">a report from earlier this year</a> finding that China is mapping vast undersea areas in preparation for a potential naval conflict with the rival regional power.<div type="image" title="Biden Modi" height="2666" width="4000" msid="110739802" hostid="261"></div>India is part of the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue with the US, Australia, and Japan, and it'll be looking to counter China's aggression by strengthening these strategic relationships."On security affairs, India wants to continue building partnerships that can help it manage belligerent actions China is taking today and in the future. This includes robust engagement with nations in its own neighborhood, particularly in the maritime domain," Rossow said.<h2 id="1c4bdd94-6b6b-4a40-a00c-8ff78e101722">A dark side</h2>India's new assertiveness under Modi has a dark side.<a target="_blank" href="https://www.google.com/search?q=wapo+india+assassination&amp;rlz=1C5GCEM_enGB1112&amp;oq=wapo+india+assassination+&amp;gs_lcrp=EgZjaHJvbWUyBggAEEUYOTIICAEQABgWGB4yCAgCEAAYFhgeMg0IAxAAGIYDGIAEGIoFMgoIBBAAGIAEGKIEMgoIBRAAGIAEGKIEMgoIBhAAGIAEGKIEMgoIBxAAGIAEGKIEMgoICBAAGIAEGKIE0gEINDg2N2owajeoAgCwAgA&amp;sourceid=chrome&amp;ie=UTF-8">The Washington Post in April</a> reported that India's security services were behind the assassination of a dissident in Canada last June and the attempted assassination of a Modi critic in the US, claims that India has denied.Modi's disappointing election result is unlikely to change his often abrasive and aggressive pursuit of foreign goals."This election result is unlikely to have much of an impact on India's international security actions," Rossow said.<div type="image" title="Narendra Modi and Vladimir Putin" height="3196" width="4714" msid="110739803" hostid="261"></div>But Modi will face serious challenges in his efforts to cement India's new global status.India has bought vast quantities of Russian oil, and that money has been used by Putin to fund his war in Ukraine. This move has aggravated the US, which <a target="_blank" href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aQ9WiQPyLFk&amp;ab_channel=Reuters">has reportedly</a> pressured Modi to stop the purchases.Putin's "no limits" relationship with China's Xi Jinping presents another strategic conundrum for Modi, who seems keen to retain good ties with Putin but is wary of China's global might.Modi's core challenges in the years ahead will be ensuring regional stability by avoiding war with China and Pakistan and continuing India's economic rise through vital domestic reforms."India's journey towards true great power capabilities is thus likely to be long and arduous," <a target="_blank" href="https://eastasiaforum.org/2024/04/21/indias-arduous-road-to-achieving-its-great-power-ambitions/">Ashley J. Tellis</a>, an analyst at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, wrote.Correction: June 5, 2024 — An earlier version of this story misstated which countries are part of the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue. It's a group consisting of India, the US, Australia, and Japan; the UK is not part of it.

Modi is on a mission to assert India's global power. His election setback won't deter him.

When God decided to create days and nights, and blessed the earth with sunlight, he must have assumed that humans could easily figure out how to use that light to meet all their energy needs. Although the Homo sapiens claim to be the most intelligent ‘species’ on Planet Earth, it seems their intelligence has evolved more slowly than most. Look around and be humbled as plants and shrubs have already sorted it. They thrive on <keyword id="6357019" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="40" keywordseo="solar-energy">solar energy</keyword> and less water, harness both and grow without a murmur! As for humans, they have simply taken thousands of years to realise that solar energy could be their ultimate answer to energy needs. 
 
But jokes apart, India is among those countries which have caught the fancy of the world. With its futuristic use of technology (like wind turbines that power Tirupati Complex and low cost mission to Mars), this tropical country, blessed with ample sunlight, is capable to fend for itself and its ever-growing population. 
 
Due to its rapid economic expansion and futuristic policies, a traditional country like India has to meet its energy requirements by leveraging fossil fuels such as coal. Nearly 70% of the energy consumed is generated from coal, followed by crude oil (24%) and natural gas (accounting for a mere 6%). It is, therefore, not difficult to comprehend that India is largely dependent on fossil fuel imports – so much as that by 2030, more than half the country’s energy needs will have to be met with large energy imports. Our own limited fossil reserves have long threatened the country’s stability as far as energy needs are concerned. 
 With a vast population of 1.1 billion and the urban areas housing the majority of industries and labour forces, India is moving dangerously close to the greenhouse effects with every passing year. While carbon emissions are getting high, the agricultural land is also getting increasingly barren and arid due to the indiscriminate use of pesticides and chemical fertilisers. The effects of <keyword id="6366055" type="ORGANIZATION" weightage="40" keywordseo="global-warming">global warming</keyword> in this highly populated country are for everyone to see. From Tsunami in the past to the Uttarakhand floods in the recent years, from progressively botched up summers to extreme winters, the calamities are too many and India is bound to emerge as one of the foremost nations being affected by global warming. 
 
India’s energy experts have been warning against the high use of exhaustible energy resources bought from other countries, which is causing a serious dent in the country’s exchequer. 
 
Almost 400 million Indians (nearly a third of the country’s population) have no access to electricity. And this power deficit compels more than 100,000 villages to live in the dark ages, quite literally. Lack of energy sources has also left India in a rather vulnerable condition as far as growing basic infrastructure is concerned. Its per capita energy consumption stands at just 639 KWh (Kilo Watt per hour), which is among the lowest. 
 This apart, what compounds India’s energy problem is the fact that three quarters of the electricity is produced by burning coal and natural gas. India may well boast a steadily growing <keyword id="35050" type="CITY" weightage="40" keywordseo="gdp">GDP</keyword>, but what has also been dangerously steady, and progressively high, is its carbon emissions. During the last decade, India turned out to be one of the biggest carbon-emitting countries, touching 1.6 million kilotonnes in 2007 alone. 
 Plagued by crippling energy crises that cannot be dealt with if the same pattern of energy generation, import and consumption continues in the near future, India has started experimenting with <keyword id="188239" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="40" keywordseo="alternative-energy">alternative energy</keyword> sources. Being blessed with a tropical climate and intense summers, the country is naturally predisposed to receiving abundant <keyword id="70990" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="40" keywordseo="Solar-power">solar power</keyword> for the major part of the year. 
 
The country has already entered a solar partnership programme with the US, under the US-India Energy Partnership Programme called SERIIUS. This initiative will also enable India to take the fullest advantage of its deserts and arid lands, and reap energy benefits without harming Mother Nature. India can even supply this energy to other countries, thus encouraging bilateral trades and adding to the country’s robust economic growth. However, India will require at least $13 billion in the next three years to fund this second phase of the solar energy generation unit. 
 
Solar projects are already generating a lot of energy for some states in India. Most of these plants are located in Gujarat, with some spread across Orissa, Rajasthan, Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu, among others. While Gujarat has been the bellwether in the solar projects space in India, Rajasthan will be home to the world’s largest solar plant very soon. That solar photovoltaic power plant will have an estimated life of 25 years and is expected to generate 6.4 billion kilowatt-hours per year, as per official figures. 
 
Gujarat has been clocking about 823.9 MW, with its biggest success being the Jawaharlal Nehru National Solar Mission. What has boosted the power scenario here is the state’s pro-solar policies and its subsequent access to a consistent flow of clean energy. Encouraged by the positive growth, Gujarat has also launched about 75 solar projects over two years. Moreover, Gujarat chief minister Narendra Modi has always been a believer in entrepreneurship. Therefore, harnessing the solar power is the most sensible thing the Modi government has done for the state, which is high on industrial production. 
 
India currently does not have an over-reaching energy strategy, but what it has in place could be called disparate policies. With the country being blessed with 5,000 TWh (Terra Watt per hour) of solar insolation annually, India stands to gain a lot as far as clean energy production goes. It can also set up independent energy generation units to make its villages and cities self-sustainable. 
 
Image: Thinkstock

Let’s
Harness The Sun's Energy For Better India

<div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table float_right"><div><div class="image on-image">ReutersMicrosoft CEO Satya Nadella</div></div></div>A few years ago, Silicon Valley and Wall Street saw Microsoft as irrelevant and perhaps even <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/the-guru-of-silicon-valley-startups-steve-blank-2011-5">doomed to failure</a>.The company's latest CEO, Satya Nadella, has done a lot to turn that impression around in the last two years. But there's still a lingering impression that the real power in tech lies with newer Internet-based companies like Facebook, Google, and Amazon.But there's one area where Microsoft is way ahead of almost every other tech company: global reach.Windows has been the global standard for computing for decades, which means there are millions of people worldwide who make their living selling or building software on Microsoft technology. That gives the company a lot of fans, and a lot of potential customers moving forward.In an <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/satya-nadella-microsoft-interview-with-business-insider-2016-4">interview with Business Insider</a>, Nadella noted that people in Cuba and Iran reached out to him as soon as those countries opened for business with the U.S., asking if they could be Microsoft partners:I was just going over some email a month ago or so where I get this mail from someone in Cuba who says, Hey, I am a Windows reseller in Cuba, and we have a huge Windows community here. We have lots of servers that are Windows Server. I want to sign up now as a partner.I got the same thing as soon as our circumstances changed in Iran. Iran is a complete Windows country when it comes to the Office automation side. "We really need you guys to get in here."Every country I go to there are local partners, local ISVs [software makers], people in healthcare, people in education, people in transportation. These are all systems built on the backbone of our technology.While Google and Facebook also have global reach, they don't have the same longstanding network of partners who rely on them to make a living. Nadella also took a little dig at Google's Project Loon, the company's plan to deliver global Internet access through balloons, and said that Microsoft hopes to work with local entrepreneurs to use already-available TV white space to improve access instead. "My ambition with connectivity is not to fly balloons in the national airspace of other countries, but my dream is to be able to enable the local entrepreneurs to have low-cost connectivity solutions." <div class="margin-top"> <h3>NOW WATCH: <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/ohea-bed-that-automatically-makes-itself-2016-3">This bed automatically makes itself three seconds after you get up</a></h3> <div> <div> <div class="ooyala-video-player" data-video-autoplay="false" data-video-id="N0dnc4MjE6HwYtvKJd60VFf_YwJGQQ9H" data-player-variable="ooyalapopvideo" id="ooyalaplayer_popvideo" style="width:1280px;height:720px"></div> </div> </div> </div>

Satya Nadella gave us a startling reminder of Microsoft's global power

A recent study by Britain’s ministry of defence has predicted that India is likely to be among the top three military powers in the world by 2045, along with the US and China, with a projected defence outlay of $654 billion. Though India’s military-industrial acumen is unlikely to surpass technological sophistication of the US by 2045, it may, along with China, rival it in terms of size. It is also likely to surpass Japan, Australia and South Korea (which will be ahead of other regional military powers) by developing sizeable and technically advanced armed forces, including ocean-going navies, capable of delivering an enduring and capable maritime presence both regionally and further afield, according to the study titled ‘Global Strategic Trends – Out to 2045’. 
 This projection explains why the Narendra Modi government is aggressively pushing its defence agenda. Recently the <keyword id="754702" type="ORGANIZATION" weightage="80" keywordseo="Defence-Acquisition-Council">Defence Acquisition Council</keyword> (DAC) cleared purchases worth Rs 80,000 crore, including six submarines worth Rs 50,000 crore. DAC also approved purchase of 8,356 Spike anti-tank guided missiles and 321 launchers from Israel. Modi’s reaction to the recent Pakistan-engineered skirmish on the Kashmir border—which resulted in the death of hordes of civilians besides forcing hundreds of villages to flee their homes as troops exchanged fire in perhaps the worst violence in the region in a decade—also amply demonstrated that India is posed to strongly defend its borders and foil any peer attempt aimed at weakening its military might. Modi not only asked the army to retaliate befittingly, but warned Pakistan that its military infiltration may cost the neighbour more than what it imagines. Pakistan’s subsequent retreat showed that it was sort of taken aback by the strong, calculated response from the Indian side. India’s ‘retaliation response’ to Pakistan followed its equally strong reaction during the recent border standoff with Chinese forces that overshadowed Chinese President Xi Jinping’s visit to India aimed at deepening commercial ties between the two countries. The Modi government also unveiled plans to build 54 more border posts in Arunachal Pradesh and strengthen <keyword id="6392347" type="ORGANIZATION" weightage="20" keywordseo="Indo-Tibetan-Border-Police">Indo-Tibetan Border Police</keyword>, which guards the Indo-China border. In another geopolitical move, India said it will supply naval vessels to Vietnam and help it modernise its defence system during the India visit of Vietnamese Prime Minister Nguyen Tan Dung. All these recent moves are early signs of India’s determination to strengthen its defence prowess and slowly emerge a top <keyword id="423175" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="military-power">military power</keyword> globally. 
 
While the US will continue to be a key partner in India’s quest to emerge a global military power, as reflected by the Modi government’s recent decision to acquire Boeing's Chinook and Apache helicopters in a deal worth $2.5 billion, what is more important is India’s growing defence alliance with Israel. The fact India chose to buy anti-tank guided missiles worth $670 million from Israel, rejecting a rival US offer despite US Secretary of Defence Chuck Hagel’s ‘unprecedented’ offer to co-develop and co-produce US’ Javelin missiles in India during his recent India visit, reinforces that Israel is likely to be a crucial defence ally for India going ahead. 
 
A key feature of Modi’s government’s defence strategy is to indigenously develop military equipment as part of its broad ‘Make in India’ strategy—the decision to build six submarines in India at a cost of about Rs 50,000 crore is a clear deviation from the hitherto followed strategy of sourcing military equipment from outside. However, the government will find it difficult to convince the top honchos of armed forces which want sophisticated, ready-to-use foreign weaponry, than trying to develop it locally which may involve a lot of time and effort. The Modi government also has to keep lobbyists for foreign manufacturers of defence equipment at abeyance. 
 
While study by the Britain’s ministry of defence portrayed a bullish future for India as a military power, it warned that the country has to “overcome domestic political issues and improve the way it invests to attain the capabilities needed to project conventional military power globally”. One hopes that PM Modi is listening.

Can India Emerge As A Top Global Military Power?

<div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table float_right"><div><div class="image on-image"></div></div></div>FA Insights is a daily newsletter from Business Insider that delivers the top news and commentary for financial advisors. 
<a href="http://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/economic-monetary-policy-divergence-2015-by-mohamed-a--el-erian-2014-12#T5H4OZo0GQAoWLTm.99">El-Erian: The Global Economy Will Be Dominated By 4 Diverging Powers</a> (Project Syndicate)
The world is becoming increasingly multipolar. "In the coming year, 'divergence' will be a major global economic theme, applying to economic trends, policies, and performance," writes Mohamed El-Erian.
The four powers include the US, with continued improvement in economic performance; China, with continued structural maturing; Europe, with continued economic stagnation and sociopolitical "disenchantment"; and "wild card" countries such as Russia and Brazil, according to El-Erian.
Since these four powers will be pursuing different methods and solutions for their specific problems, the interplay between them will become increasingly economically complicated.
<a href="http://www.financial-planning.com/news/ria/7-Advisors-Bolt-Convergent-2691344-1.html">Advisers Are Rushing Out Of Convergent After The Former CEO's Suicide</a> (Financial Planning) 
Many advisers are leaving Convergent Wealth Advisor. At least seven have already left. Their departures come after former CEO David Zier committed suicide, Ann Marsh reports.
"It's mayhem," one former adviser said.
The new CEO, Douglas Wolford, wrote in an email that executives were "disappointed" that advisers were leaving, but that this would not affect the firm's operations. 
<a href="http://www.investmentnews.com/article/20141208/FREE/141209910/vanguard-quintuples-assets-in-robo-adviser-leapfrogging-competitors">Vanguard Quintupled The Assets In Its Robo-Adviser Platform</a> (Investment News) 
"The Vanguard Group Inc. has more than quintupled the assets in its human-augmented online advice platform this year, despite the program not yet being made widely available," Trevor Hunnicutt reports.
Assets grew to $4.2 billion by the end of Q3 2014. At the end of 2013 they were at $755 million.
This is part of the larger robo-advisor trend. Charles Schwab Corp. is planning to create a "digital platform" next year, and Fidelity Institutional is offering advisers access to two online advisory services.
<a href="http://www.schwab.com/public/schwab/nn/articles/Top-5-Ways-Chinese-Consumers-are-Altering-Global-Investing">Chinese Consumers Are Going To Change The Global Economy</a> (Charles Schwab) 
China's the second largest consumer market - after the US - and that has large implications for investing in the Chinese consumer sector.
There are five major trends in the sector. One, spending by China's consumers is sizable and growing. Two, spending on services is expected to rise. Three, online shopping is a bigger deal in China than in the US already. Four, lower income levels are growing, which is creating opportunities. And, five, Chinese companies are preferred over Western multinationals by consumers, Michelle Gibley writes.
Although the transition from industrial-led to consumer-led in China may be "bumpy," these trends suggest that the consumer sector will keep growing and that there are opportunities in diversified funds, according to Gibley.
<a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/12/09/us-wells-far-madison-street-idUSKBN0JN03T20141209">Wells Fargo Just Got A Pair Of UBS Brokers</a> (Reuters) 
Wells Fargo "hired a Chicago-area team of brokers away from rival UBS AG's wealth management unit, where they managed $463 million in client assets and generated $3.5 million in annual fees and commissions," Elizabeth Dilts reports.
The team manages corporate retirement plans primarily, and the rest of the assets are from high-net-worth families.

EL-ERIAN: The Global Economy Will Be Dominated By 4 Diverging Powers

<ul class="summary-list"><li>China's president is seeking to exploit differences among Western allies, analysts say. </li><li>Some European countries want to maintain stronger trade links to China than the US does. </li></ul>French President Emmanuel Macron and US President Joe Biden have been so effusive in their praise for each other their relationship has been dubbed a "bromance" by some observers. But that friendship may have soured after Macron made comments likely to irk Biden following his recent state visit to China, the US' arch global rival. During the trip, where he was given a lavish red-carpeted welcome, Macron suggested that Europe should not be drawn into the crisis over Taiwan, which has long been one of the flash points in the global rivalry between China and the US.Beijing has claiming the territory as its own, and Washington has pledged to defend its independence and create a global alliance to deter Chinese aggression. "Being an ally does not mean being a vassal... doesn't mean that we don't have the right to think for ourselves," Macron said amid a backlash over the comments Wednesday. <h2>Xi drives a wedge between allies using trade </h2>Europe has long been divided between countries skeptical of China and seeking closer ties with the US, and those lured by China's vast export markets, who harbor desires for greater autonomy from the US. It is differences such as these that China's President Xi Jinping is keen to exploit as he seeks to drive a wedge between the US and Europe and humiliate Biden by exposing the limits of his influence, analysts say. Roland Freudenstein, vice president of the Globsec think tank in Brussels, said that Xi appeared to have found a receptive audience in Macron, a leader who has long attempted to portay an image of a global power broker steering a bold and independent path. "Don't forget that flattery is a well-honed skill in China, and with Emmanuel Macron, demand matches supply here," he remarked. "Xi is trying to lure them with lucrative business deals and, in France's case, with enthusiastic support for European 'strategic autonomy'. Both tools are also used by China to drive a wedge between Europe and America." <div type="image" title="Chinese President Xi Jinping (R) welcomes German Chancelor Olaf Scholz at the Grand Hall in Beijing on November 4, 2022." height="5262" width="7016" msid="99492766" hostid="261"></div>While the US has sanctioned China, and sought to disentangle itself from China's economy and tech sector, companies in some of Europe's biggest economies are taking a very different path.German businesses remain committed to expanding operations in China, despite US pressure on European leaders, <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/04/12/world/europe/germany-china-trade.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The New York Times reported Thursday. </a>Macron is not the first European leader to tread a path to China in recent weeks, while US and Chinese diplomatic relations remain frozen in the wake of the Chinese spy balloon scandal. Spain's Prime Minister, Pedro Sanchez, and Olaf Scholz, Germany's chancellor, are among the European leaders Xi has hosted. <h2>Ukraine conflict hardens anti-China stance in Europe </h2>But there are a range of issues where Xi has been less successful in exposing differences between Europe and the US.China's brutal persecution of the Uighur Muslim minority, the crushing of democracy in Hong Kong, and the handling of the COVID-19 pandemic, have led many European governments to take a more wary stance towards Beijing. <div type="image" title="Putin/Xi" height="634" width="845" msid="99492767" hostid="261"></div>And China's backing for Russia in invading Ukraine and sparking the biggest conflict in Europe since World War II is hardening that stance — particularly in light of reports that China is considering sending weapons and other lethal aid to Russia. "Deepening Sino-Russian relations will constrain the extent to which China can rebuild strategic trust with the European Union, especially if Beijing were to provide low-end lethal aid or even heavy weaponry to Moscow," explained Ali Wyne, an analyst with the Eurasia Group. Despite providing diplomatic and economic support for Russia, Xi has also sought to position himself as a peace broker in Ukraine. He has touted a 12 point peace plan that the US has dismissed as heavily skewed in favor of the Kremlin's goals.So far European leaders have remained united with the US in rejecting Xi's overtures, though Macron remarked in China that he believed Beijing wants to "build a pathway toward peace."Wyne said that the proposals could start gaining more support in Europe if Ukraine's much-anticipated spring offensive underwhelms, and non-European countries start to coalesce around it as a starting point for negotiations. But Freudenstein cautioned European leaders against the belief that Xi can act as a mediator with Putin. This, he said, is "not happening because Xi's influence is limited, and he fears a Russian defeat more than almost anything."

Xi is trying to humiliate Biden by driving a wedge between him and his European allies as part of a global power play

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Some Texans were billed $1,000 a day for electricity last week, <a href="https://www.dallasnews.com/business/2021/02/20/griddy-customers-face-5000-bills-for-5-freezing-days-in-texas/">The Dallas Morning News</a> reported.</li><li>Some state residents have their home and office bills tied to wholesale electricity prices.</li><li>The wholesale price of electricity surged 10,000% as demand increased and supply fell offline.</li></ul>Some <keyword id="15710" type="ENTERTAINMENT" weightage="60" keywordseo="texas">Texas</keyword> residents are facing a new obstacle after last week's winter storms: <keyword id="159810" type="PERSON" weightage="60" keywordseo="electricity-bills">electricity bills</keyword> over $5,000 for less than a week's worth of <keyword id="6357014" type="ORGANIZATION" weightage="100" keywordseo="energy">energy</keyword>.While millions of people in the state <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/texas-blackouts-millions-lost-power-in-storm-went-wrong-2021-2">endured lengthy stretches without power</a> last week, other customers are seeing the eye-popping, five-figure <keyword id="44011" type="CITY" weightage="60" keywordseo="power">power</keyword> bills because their plans are tied to the wholesale market rate. In the Dallas-Fort Worth area, some residents described being hit with $1,000-a-day charges for electricity, <a href="https://www.dallasnews.com/business/2021/02/20/griddy-customers-face-5000-bills-for-5-freezing-days-in-texas/">The Dallas Morning News reported</a>. Residents have used social media or other means <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/texas-army-veteran-faces-16000-bill-due-to-rocketing-energy-prices-2021-2">to show $5,000 bills - or more -</a> over a period of about five days.CPS Energy, the <keyword id="6360326" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="electric">electric</keyword> utility in San Antonio, said it was working to avoid giving customers "exorbitant" bills in the coming weeks, <a href="https://www.ksat.com/news/local/2021/02/19/skyrocketing-price-of-power-leads-to-concern-over-next-cps-energy-bill/">KSAT reported</a>, perhaps by spreading the charges over more than a decade.Gov. Greg Abbott met with local lawmakers Saturday <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/bill-gates-texas-blackout-greg-abbott-climate-change-wind-2021-2">to address this latest crisis</a>. "We are moving quickly to alleviate this problem and will continue to work collaboratively throughout this week on solutions to help Texas families and ensure they do not get stuck with skyrocketing energy bills," Abbott said in a statement.Spiking bills won't hit state residents who had fixed-rate electric plans. The problem for many comes from index or variable-rate plans, in which rates to power their home or business change with the price of the wholesale market. In good times, a customer's bill can be lower than it might be otherwise - but if the cost to produce electricity skyrockets, so too do bills.Last Monday, as freezing <keyword id="6359992" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="weather">weather</keyword> rolled through Texas and much of the US, the wholesale price of electricity shot up 10,000%. It went from about $50 per megawatt hour to $9,000 - a system cap, according <a href="https://www.puc.texas.gov/51617WinterERCOTOrder.pdf">to data provided</a> by the Electric Reliability Council of Texas, the operator of Texas' electric grid.The price increase came as Texas' main sources of electricity, chiefly natural-gas plants, went offline in the freezing temperatures. At the same time, the unusually cold weather meant demand for energy went up, as people turned up their heaters to stay warm.ERCOT responded with rolling blackouts, it said, so as not to further damage the grid. The blackouts, which affected a few million residents at their peak, were among the largest in US history.President Joe Biden on Saturday <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/biden-declares-texas-a-major-disaster-millions-without-water-2021-2">declared a major disaster in Texas</a>.ERCOT did not immediately respond to Insider's request for comment about the wholesale electricity price and reports of spiking consumer bills.It's unclear how many Texas residents have variable or index-rate electric plans. Texans are allowed to <a href="https://www.texaspowerguide.com/texas-electricity-shopping/">shop for their power plans</a> in its deregulated retail electricity market.Griddy, one of the state's electric companies, provides access to wholesale electricity for a monthly membership fee. Last week, it <a href="https://www.griddy.com/post/how-to-switch" target="_blank" title="https://www.griddy.com/post/how-to-switch" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer">urged</a> its nearly 30,000 customers to find a different provider if they couldn't afford the soaring rates, The Dallas Morning <keyword id="6355005" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="news">News</keyword> reported.Some state lawmakers think some residents might not understand how their electricity is billed."The state needs to look into whether or not people are signing up for things that they don't really understand and signing up for things that could ultimately really hurt them," <a href="https://www.wnky.com/skyrocketing-electric-bills-add-to-texas-power-woes/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Gene Wu, a Texas state representative whose district covers part of Houston, said, according to The Dallas Morning News</a>.By Sunday, power had been restored across much of Texas, though many people remained without water after pipes froze and burst. Damage from the storm, which left dozens dead, <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/winter-snow-storm-blackout-texas-damages-could-near-50-billion-2021-2">is expected to approach $50 billion,</a> AccuWeather predicted.Abbott <a href="https://gov.texas.gov/news/post/governor-abbott-declares-ercot-reform-an-emergency-item">has called the blackout event</a> "unacceptable" and said he would call for changes at ERCOT as an emergency item for the 2021 legislative session.The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission has also <a href="https://www.ferc.gov/news-events/news/ferc-nerc-open-joint-inquiry-2021-cold-weather-grid-operations">launched a task force to investigate</a> the loss of power in Texas and elsewhere in the US.Correction: An earlier version of this article misstated KSAT's reporting. It quoted CPS Energy as saying it was working to avoid "exorbitant" bills, not that some customers should expect them.

Why some Texas residents are ending up with $5,000 electric bills after the winter storms

The power generation in first two months of the second quarter of current financial year rose marginally by 1.5 per cent on-year due to heavy rainfall during these months, <keyword id="105309" type="General" weightage="50" keywordseo="emkay-global-financial-services" source="Orion">Emkay Global Financial Services</keyword> said in a report. This was sharply lower than 16 per cent growth in the first quarter of the current financial year, which had the impact of low base due to Covid-19. August generation has been less than 1 per cent. On a 3-year CAGR basis, growth for the two months has been 3.5-5 per cent. "A closer look into the electricity demand pattern suggests that heavy rains during July-August 2022 (up 30 per cent <keyword id="63194" type="General" weightage="80" keywordseo="yoy" source="Orion">YoY</keyword>) might be the main reason for the same. Both residential and agricultural demand has high corelation to weather conditions. As the rainy season recedes, we believe growth in power demand will normalize to the medium-term figure of ~5 per cent," the report said. <keyword id="209265" type="General" weightage="50" keywordseo="hydro" source="Orion">Hydro</keyword> growth has been strong at 10 per cent, while Thermal and RE growth stood flat to moderate at 2 per cent. While, coal production reported 11.4 per cent and 8.3 per cent YoY growth for July and August, respectively. Coal dispatch is up 8.5 per cent/5.4 per cent YoY for the two months, although there was some tapering in growth. As per report, overall coal dispatch has been ~7 per cent for these two months, the power sector has received ~14 per cent higher coal in August 2023 as against August 2022 - YTD numbers stand at 20 per cent. This is good compared to last year, when India faced good demand upsurge during Sep-Oct and many thermal units did not have enough inventory. SEE ALSO : <a target="_blank" class="c-link c-message_attachment__title_link" href="https://www.businessinsider.in/india/news/satellite-internet-provider-hughes-communications-india-on-monday-announced-the-commercial-launch-of-indias-first-high-throughput-satellite-hts-broadband-service-powered-by-the-indian-space-research-organisation-isro-as-the-elon-musk-run-spacex-abandoned-its-affordable-internet-project-starlink-in-the-country-/articleshow/94151236.cms">Hughes, ISRO launch satellite internet service in India as Musk's Starlink disappears</a> <a target="_blank" class="c-link c-message_attachment__title_link" href="https://www.businessinsider.in/business/news/lenskart-and-mirae-asset-capital-sign-up-with-razorpay-for-online-transactions/articleshow/94150744.cms">Lenskart and Mirae Asset Capital sign up with Razorpay for online transactions</a>

Power generation rises marginally in July-Aug on heavy rain: Emkay Global

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Relations between the US and Saudi Arabia are worsening. </li><li>Saudi ruler Mohammed bin Salman wants to assert himself internationally. </li></ul>This week, a diplomat spat between the US and Saudi Arabia <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-saudi-arabia-trade-insults-oil-nyt-secret-deal-report-2022-10">degenerated into petty name-calling</a>, a public sign of the dire state of relations between the two countries.The exchange, fueled by a dispute over oil production, is a further blow to an alliance which for decades has been marked by predictability: The US provides arms and security to the Saudis, and gains a key strategic partner in a volatile region in return.It is a change driven by the Saudi crown prince, Mohammed bin Salman, who is deliberately snubbing the US in an attempt to chart a more independent path, an expert told Insider.Giorgio Cafiero, the CEO of Gulf State Analytics, said: "With Mohammed bin Salman at the helm, Saudi Arabia is very determined to assert its autonomy from the US."The leadership in Riyadh has been sending many signals to Washington that the Kingdom will pursue its own national interests as perceived by Saudi officials, which includes deepening cooperation with Beijing and Moscow."Specifically, this has taken the form of Saudi Arabia joining Russia other oil-rich nations to announce a steep cut in production.This was the exact opposite of requests from the <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-saudi-arabia-trade-insults-oil-nyt-secret-deal-report-2022-10">Biden administration to increase oil production</a>, in the hope of lower prices that would help tame US inflation and deprive Russia of revenue.Per <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/10/25/us/politics/us-saudi-oil-deal.html">a report in The New York Times</a>, US officials thought they had secured a deal with Saudi Arabia and were blindsided when their plan fell apart.The result has been humiliation for President Joe Biden, who has sought to build an international coalition against Russia and to build bridges with the Saudis.Biden risked the wrath of critics in his own party to visit the crown prince in Jeddah in July, embarrassingly walking back a campaign pledge to render Saudi Arabia a "pariah"."Let's be clear: The Saudi move was done with the full awareness that it would undermine Biden's political position at home and abroad," wrote former US diplomat <a href="https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/10/11/biden-saudi-arabia-opec-plus-oil-production-mohammed-bin-salman/">Aaron David Miller in Foreign Policy</a> of the oil-production cut.He noted that it came just ahead of the midterm elections, where Democratic candidates are vulnerable to criticism from Republicans over inflation. Cafiero, the analysts, said that Crown Prince Mohammed believes that drawing closer to Russia and China will secure more "leverage" internationally.The crown prince also shares with <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/putin-mohammed-bin-salman-high-five-at-g20-summit-2018-11">Russia's President Vladimir Putin an obsession with crushing domestic</a> opposition, and both men are "authoritarian to their core," Cafiero said. It's not just geopolitical calculation that is drawing Americans and Saudis apart, but personal antipathy between Biden and bin Salman, reports say.<a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-saudi-relations-biden-mbs-animosity-11666623661">The Wall Street Journal on Saturday reported</a> that the crown prince "mocks President Biden in private, making fun of the 79-year-old's gaffes and questioning his mental acuity." Biden, for his part, has taken a stand against the assassination of Saudi <a href="https://www.insider.com/the-murder-of-jamal-khashoggi-2019-10">dissident Jamal Khashoggi, who was murdered then dismembered</a> in the Saudi consulate in Istanbul in 2018 by agents, an operation US intelligence has said was ordered directly by Crown Prince Mohammed.<div type="image" title="Former President Trump stands with his son Eric and Yasir Al-Rumayyan, left, a governor of Saudi Arabia's Public Investment Fund." height="1920" width="2559" msid="95146589" hostid="261"></div>On the campaign trail in 2020, Biden vowed to make Saudi Arabia a "pariah" over the murder in rhetoric calculated to appeal to the Democratic base — but which caused fury in Riyadh."Bin Salman and others in Saudi Arabia took a tremendous amount of offense to that rhetoric. Such negative sentiments have informed Saudi officials' perspective on Biden's presidency," said Cafiero. Crown Prince Mohammed has done little to conceal that he would prefer former President Donald Trump to be in the White House, Cafiero said, assessing that the crown prince preferred his transactional style.The <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-911-liv-golf-event-nobodys-gotten-to-the-bottom-2022-7">Saudis recently funded a high-profile golf tournament at Trump's resorts,</a> where he has been an enthusiastic attendee.Trump offered at best minimal pushback over the Khashoggi killing, which happened during his presidency.His hardline stance against Iran, Saudi Arabia's key regional foe, also aligned with Saudi interests, unlike Biden's policy of seeking to revive the nuclear dear which the Obama White House struck with Iran.Despite the cooling of the relationship under Biden, the US and Saudis have much to lose from a deterioration of the alliance, Cafiero said.The Saudis are still reliant on US weapons and security guarantees, while the US wants the Saudis to stabilize oil markets and keep prices low at home. "Washington and Riyadh have many shared interests that are set to keep the partnership alive, [but] the bilateral relationship has become much less friendly," concluded Cafiero.

Saudi ruler Mohammed bin Salman is seeking to humiliate Biden as part of a global power play

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Incumbent political leaders across the globe have struggled in recent elections.</li><li>Voter backlash against high inflation is among the top explanations.</li></ul>The balance of power in <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/its-looking-increasingly-likely-democrats-will-struggle-in-2024-2023-11">governments worldwide</a> could change significantly next year — a lot of it is due to how much people hate inflation.2024 is a <a target="_blank" href="https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2023/12/2024-elections-around-world/">historic</a> election year — <a target="_blank" href="https://www.economist.com/interactive/the-world-ahead/2023/11/13/2024-is-the-biggest-election-year-in-history">over half</a> the world's population lives in countries where elections are expected to be held. Voters will choose leaders in <a target="_blank" href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-11-01/brace-for-elections-40-countries-are-voting-in-2024">40</a> national elections, including the United States, India, Mexico, Indonesia, Russia, Pakistan, South Africa, the United Kingdom, Belgium, and Taiwan.Recent polling — and election results over the past couple of years — suggest that many <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-beats-biden-electoral-college-loses-popular-vote-new-poll-2023-11">incumbent leaders</a> are in trouble. The governing parties have suffered defeats in New Zealand, South Korea, and Australia. In <a target="_blank" href="https://www.cnbc.com/2022/06/20/frances-macron-loses-parliamentary-majority-economic-reform-agenda-at-risk.html">France</a> and <a target="_blank" href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/11/02/world/europe/denmark-election-social-democrats.html">Denmark</a>, for instance, incumbent leaders won reelection but lost their governing majorities. Additionally, the polls suggest today's leaders are far from popular in the United States, the United Kingdom, and Canada.There's one thing most incumbents across the globe have in common that might partially explain their shared unpopularity, and it's not their <a target="_blank" href="https://www.slowboring.com/p/its-not-just-biden?utm_campaign=email-post&amp;r=gkw7m&amp;utm_source=substack&amp;utm_medium=email">place on the political spectrum</a>. They've all presided over an <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-economy-doing-way-better-than-rest-of-rich-world-2023-7">era of high inflation</a>.In the US, inflation is among the top explanations for why Americans have been so <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/interestrates/u-s-consumer-sentiment-drops-to-six-month-low-in-november-1032807454">dissatisfied with an otherwise healthy economy</a>, and many <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/biden-reelection-low-poll-numbers-economy-trump-swing-voters-2023-12">blame President Joe Biden</a> for the high prices they've experienced.It's not just the US where people are fixated on inflation. McKinsey polling of individuals in five European countries in the third quarter of last year found that inflation was the top concern of <a target="_blank" href="https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/consumer-packaged-goods/our-insights/an-update-on-european-consumer-sentiment">over two-thirds</a> of consumers. The same factors that have contributed to high prices in the US, including <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/inflation-outlook-supply-chain-consumer-spending-price-growth-economic-forecast-2022-2">supply chain disruptions</a> and <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/inflation-supply-chain-sarah-bianchi-biden-trade-representative-tariffs-china-2022-7">geopolitical conflicts</a>, have also impacted the rest of the world.In many countries, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/world-economy-china-deflation-recession-imports-exports-inflation-federal-reserve-2023-8">inflation is now lower</a> than a year ago, which could provide some hope for incumbent leaders.In the US, for instance, high inflation didn't stop Democrats from performing strongly in <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/midterm-election-results-economy-inflation-democrats-republicans-biden-2022-11">2022's midterm elections</a>. In recent months, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/falling-inflation-outlook-fed-target-interest-rates-rent-prices-oil-2023-11">inflation has declined</a>, and Americans' opinions on the economy, by some measures, have <a target="_blank" href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-12-08/us-consumer-sentiment-jumps-as-inflation-concerns-dissipate">grown a bit rosier</a>.But it's also possible the damage has been done and that even slowing inflation won't be enough for many voters to back incumbent leaders like Biden.While prices have <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/high-inflation-goods-durables-deflation-groceries-expensive-federal-reserve-cars-2023-12">fallen in some spending categories</a> like furniture and household appliances over the past year, things on which people spend more often, like groceries, have become<a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/high-food-prices-inflation-gas-costs-groceries-restaurants-americans-economy-2023-12"> more expensive</a>.In the US, it's historically taken a recession to knock out a president running for reelection. Since 1948, the incumbent has <a target="_blank" href="https://www.goldmansachs.com/intelligence/pages/us-president-incumbents-tend-to-win-elections-except-during-recessions.html?chl=em&amp;plt=briefings&amp;cid=1208&amp;plc=body">won all eight elections</a> that didn't occur during or soon after a recession, per Goldman Sachs. The US isn't in a recession, but <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/recession-2024-inflation-economy-interest-rates-stock-market-layoffs-fed-2023-11">some experts expect one next year</a>.If the US economy does avoid a downturn — and Biden's polling doesn't improve — next year's election cycle could be historic in more ways than one.

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