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New Delhi: India's fossil fuel emissions are projected to rise by 4.6 per cent in 2024, while China could see a marginal rise of 0.2 per cent, according to new research by a group of international scientists. As the UN climate conference in Baku, Azerbaijan, discussed raising trillions of dollars to tackle <keyword id="19907392" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Climate-change" source="keywords">climate change</keyword>, the group of scientists known as the "Global Carbon Project" warned that emissions from fossil fuels -- the main driver of warming -- could hit a record 37.4 billion tonnes in 2024, up 0.8 percent from 2023 levels. This comes despite rapid growth in renewable energy and a landmark agreement at COP28 in Dubai last year to move away from fossil fuels. The "<keyword id="23948569" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Global-carbon-budget-2024" source="keywords">Global Carbon Budget 2024</keyword>" report said total global CO2 emissions are set to go up from 40.6 billion tons in 2023 to 41.6 billion metric tons in 2024, which is on course to become the warmest year on record. "The impacts of climate change are becoming increasingly dramatic, yet we still see no sign that burning of fossil fuels has peaked," Professor Pierre Friedlingstein of Exeter's Global Systems Institute, who led the study, said. The 'Global Carbon Project' team said India, the world's most populous country and fastest-growing major economy, may see its fossil fuel emissions rise by 4.6 percent. According to a UN report released last month, India's greenhouse gas emissions surged by 6.1 per cent in 2023, contributing to 8 per cent of the global total. However, the country's historical contribution to global CO2 emissions stands at only 3 per cent. India's per capita emissions remain low at 2.9 tons of CO2 equivalent (tCO2e), far below the global average of 6.6 tCO2e. India, the world's third-largest greenhouse gas emitter, has pledged to reach net zero emissions (balancing emissions with removals) by 2070 and aims to achieve 500 gigawatts of renewable energy capacity by 2030. China's emissions, which make up 32 per cent of the global total, are likely to increase slightly by 0.2 per cent, though there is a chance they could decline, according to the data released on Wednesday. Emissions from the United States and the European Union, which contribute 13 per cent and 7 per cent of the global total, are both set to decline, with drops of 0.6 per cent for the US and 3.8 per cent for the EU. Emissions from the rest of the world, which together account for 38 per cent of global emissions, could see a rise of 1.1 per cent. The researchers said that in 2024, coal emissions will likely increase by 0.2 per cent, oil by 0.9 per cent, and gas by 2.4 per cent, globally. Coal, oil, and gas contribute 41 per cent, 32 per cent, and 21 per cent of global fossil CO2 emissions, respectively. However, given the uncertainty in projections, it remains possible that coal emissions could decline in 2024, they said. The report also pointed out that emissions from international aviation and shipping, which account for 3 per cent of global emissions and are tracked separately from national or regional totals, are expected to rise by 7.8 per cent in 2024. However, these emissions will still be 3.5 per cent below the 2019 pre-pandemic levels. Globally, emissions from land-use changes, like deforestation, have dropped by 20 per cent over the past decade but are expected to rise in 2024. Permanent CO2 removal through reforestation and new forest planting now offsets about half of the emissions from permanent deforestation, they added. Technology-based CO2 removal accounts for only a tiny fraction -- around one-millionth -- of CO2 emissions from fossil fuels. The report said that emissions from fires in 2024 have been above the average since the beginning of the satellite record in 2003, particularly due to the extreme 2023 wildfire season in Canada (which continued into 2024) and severe drought in Brazil. Land and ocean carbon sinks continued to absorb around half of the total carbon emissions, despite being negatively affected by climate change.

Global fossil emissions to reach record high in 2024; India's share to rise by 4.6 pc: Report

A deadly heat wave gripped large regions of Asia for weeks in April and May 2024. As temperatures climbed past 110 degrees Fahrenheit (43.3 Celsius) in India on May 7, campaigning politicians, local news announcers and voters waiting in long lines passed out from the oppressive heat. From as far north as Japan to as far south as the Philippines, the relentless heat wreaked havoc on everyday life. Students and teachers in Cambodia were sent home from school, as their hand-held fans provided little protection against the stifling heat and humidity in their poorly ventilated classrooms. Farmers in Thailand saw their crops wither and mourned the loss of livestock that perished under the punishing sun. Hundreds of people died from the heat. Most of the planet has suffered the dire effects of <keyword id="20563038" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="extreme-heat" source="keywords">extreme heat</keyword> in recent years. A weekslong heat wave in the southwestern United States in 2023 was described as "hell on earth" in Phoenix, where temperatures hit 110 F (43.3 C) or higher for 31 straight days. At the same time, Europe saw unprecedented high temperatures that killed hundreds and contributed to devastating wildfires in Greece. Regardless of where or when a heat wave strikes, one pattern is a constant: Older adults are the most likely to die from extreme heat, and this crisis will worsen in the coming years. We study <keyword id="19907392" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="climate-change" source="keywords">climate change</keyword> and population aging. Our research documents two global trends that together portend a dire future. More older adults will be at risk of heat stress First, temperatures are hotter than ever. The nine-year period from 2015 and 2023 had the highest average temperatures since global records began in 1880. Second, the population is aging worldwide. By 2050, the number of people ages 60 and older will double to nearly 2.1 billion, making up 21 per cent of the <keyword id="21055680" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="global-population" source="keywords">global population</keyword>. That proportion is 13 per cent today. These combined forces mean that ever-rising numbers of vulnerable older adults will be exposed to intensifying heat. To understand the risks ahead, we developed population projections for different age groups and combined them with climate change scenarios for the coming decades. Our analyses show that by 2050, more than 23 per cent of the world population ages 69 and older will be living in regions where peak temperatures routinely surpass 99.5 degrees F (37.5 degrees C), compared with just 14 per cent today. That means that as many as 250 million additional older adults will be exposed to dangerously high temperatures. Mapping the data shows that most of these older adults live in lower- and middle-income countries with insufficient services and limited access to electricity, cooling appliances and safe water. In historically cooler regions in the Global North, including North America and Europe, <keyword id="20707229" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="rising-temperatures" source="keywords">rising temperatures</keyword> will be the main force driving older adults' heat exposure. In historically hotter regions in the Global South such as Asia, Africa and South America, population growth and increases in longevity mean that steeply rising numbers of older adults will be exposed to intensifying heat-related risks. Policymakers, communities, families and older residents themselves need to understand these risks and be prepared because of older adults' special vulnerabilities to heat. Extreme heat is especially harmful to older adults High temperatures are oppressive for everyone, but for older adults they can be deadly. Extreme heat worsens common age-related health conditions such as heart, lung and kidney disease and can cause delirium. Older people don't sweat as much as younger people, which makes it harder for their bodies to cool down when temperatures spike. These problems are intensified by common prescription medications, such as anticholinergics, which further reduce the capacity to sweat. Spending time outdoors in hot humid weather can cause dehydration, a problem worsened by the side effects of prescription medications such as diuretics and beta-blockers. Dehydration can make older adults weak and dizzy, increasing their risk of falls and injury. These threats are even worse in regions lacking access to safe and affordable drinking water. Poor air quality makes it difficult to breath, especially for those who already have lung problems such as chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, or COPD. For older adults with physical health problems, temperatures as low as 80 F (26.7 C) can pose significant danger. And when humidity is as high as 90 per cent, even 78 F (25.6 C) can be hazardous to older adults. Nighttime heat is especially harmful for older adults whose homes lack air conditioning or who can't afford to run their air conditioners for long periods. The ideal temperature for older adults' restful sleep is between 68 and 77 F (20 and 25 C), and sleep quality diminishes as temperatures rise. A night of restless sleep can make an older adult more depressed and confused during their waking hours. Medications also can lose their effectiveness if stored in places much warmer than 77 F (25 C). Older adults also may suffer emotionally during stifling <keyword id="20472420" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="heat-waves" source="keywords">heat waves</keyword> Being stuck indoors when temperatures are unbearable can make older adults bored, depressed and isolated. People with cognitive impairments may underestimate the dangers of extreme heat or may not understand the heat advisories. Those who have physical mobility limitations or lack access to transportation can't easily travel to public cooling centers - if there is one nearby - or find relief in nearby "green and blue areas," such as parks and lakes. These threats are especially dire in low- and middle-income nations, where older adults are more likely to live in substandard housing and lack access to high-quality health care or ways to cool down in the heat. We talk about this as "systemic cooling poverty." What can be done? Policymakers can work to cut greenhouse gas emissions from fossil fuels in vehicles, power plants and factories, which drive global warming, and develop effective plans to protect older people from heat risk. Older adults and their caregivers also can take steps to adapt. But efforts to help need to be tailored to each region and population. Wealthy municipalities can increase public investments in early warning systems and ride services to cooling centers and hospitals. They can use geographic information systems to identify neighborhoods with high concentrations of older adults and expand power grids to manage increasing demand for air conditioning. In regions with substandard housing, limited access to clean water and few public supports such as cooling centers, much larger changes are necessary. Providing better health care, water and housing and reducing air pollution that can mitigate health problems during heat waves require significant changes and investments many countries struggle to afford. The World Health Organization and Pan American Health Organization warn that this decade will be critical for preparing communities to handle rising heat and the risk to aging populations. Across all regions, researchers, practitioners and policymakers could save lives by heeding their call. SEE ALSO:<a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/stock-market/news/awfis-space-solutions-ipo-allotment-how-to-check-allotment-gmp-listing-date-and-more/articleshow/110467409.cms" target="_blank"></a> <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/stock-market/news/awfis-space-solutions-ipo-allotment-how-to-check-allotment-gmp-listing-date-and-more/articleshow/110467409.cms" target="_blank">Awfis Space Solutions IPO allotment – How to check allotment, GMP, listing date and more</a><a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/tech/mobile/news/samsung-galaxy-f55-with-leather-back-launched-in-india-starting-at-26999/articleshow/110462026.cms" target="_blank"></a> <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/tech/mobile/news/samsung-galaxy-f55-with-leather-back-launched-in-india-starting-at-26999/articleshow/110462026.cms" target="_blank">Samsung Galaxy F55 with leather back launched in India starting at ₹26,999</a><a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/tech/news/lenovo-loq-15-review/articleshow/110456546.cms" target="_blank"></a> <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/tech/news/lenovo-loq-15-review/articleshow/110456546.cms" target="_blank">Lenovo LOQ 15 review – gaming laptop with a sturdy design</a>

Heat waves can be deadly for older adults: An aging global population and rising temperatures mean millions are at risk

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Apple has been banned from selling the iPhone 16 in Indonesia.</li><li>The Indonesian government said Apple hasn't met a requirement for 40% of parts to be sourced locally.</li></ul>The Indonesian government has blocked Apple from selling its latest <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/guides/tech/iphone-16-review">iPhone 16</a> in the country because it does not meet local regulations.The latest iPhone, launched in September, has not passed the Southeast Asian nation's requirement that 40% of the material in smartphones and tablets sold nationally come from Indonesian producers. The policy is intended to protect domestic manufacturers and attract foreign investment.Indonesia's Ministry of Industry said in a statement on Friday that iPhone 16s cannot be imported for sale as Apple has yet to fulfill its investment commitment to obtain "local content level" certification.The ministry said 9,000 iPhone 16 products had already entered the country. It added that it would monitor the circulation of the devices and warned that if traded, the products would be classed as illegal.Apple's older products can still be sold in Indonesia, and visitors can use the iPhone 16 for personal use.Earlier this month, the Ministry of Industry said that Apple's investment of Rp1.5 trillion ($95 million) was still short of its Rp1.7 trillion commitment, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.ft.com/content/698d07af-c163-4bc9-9a30-b82ca479e3e8">the FT</a> reported.Apple has already built four developer academies in Indonesia. In April, CEO Tim Cook said that the company was investigating the feasibility of <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/apple-tim-cook-indonesia-production-india-china-iphone-2024-4">establishing local manufacturing facilities</a> as it diversifies production away from China.<div type="image" title="Indonesian President Joko Widodo (R) meets Apple CEO Tim Cook (2nd R) at the National Palace in Jakarta, Indonesia on April 17, 2024." height="3518" width="4690" msid="114698217" hostid="261" sizebytes="474336"></div>With over 280 million citizens, Indonesia is the world's fourth most populous nation and a growing market for Apple.The iPhone maker saw a 6% year-on-year increase in its share of the premium smartphone market in Indonesia and now makes up 40% of sales of smartphones costing more than $600, according to <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.counterpointresearch.com/insights/indonesia-smartphone-market-q2-2024/">Counterpoint</a>, a technology market research firm.However, overall sales in Indonesia remain low compared to global levels, meaning the ban is unlikely to significantly dent Apple's sales. Of the 235 million smartphones Apple sold globally last year, the company only sold about 3.4 million in Indonesia, the FT reported.Apple did not immediately reply to a request for comment, made outside normal working hours.It comes at the start of a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/apple-announcing-major-mac-updates-ai-rollout-earnings-week-2024-10">big week for Apple</a>, in which it reports earnings and is expected to introduce software and hardware updates, including its Apple Intelligence features.

Apple can't sell the new iPhone in the world's 4th most populous country

Climate Action 15: 2024's top global innovators powering green solutions

<ul class="summary-list"><li>The global population is getting older. </li><li>The trend will lead to lower returns, earnings growth, and valuations, JPMorgan strategists say.</li></ul>The aging of the world population is expected to accelerate in the coming decades, which will likely produce bad outcomes for the stock market, JPMorgan strategists say.The strategists say that historically, an older population has led to declining returns, lower earnings growth, and weaker valuations.Over a 10-year period, a 1% increase in the number of people over 65 is correlated with a 0.92% decline in annual stock returns, the strategists calculated in a report released last week.They point mainly to slower growth and falling valuations.With an older investor base looking to save for retirement, investment capital declines, leading to less innovation. That, plus slower growth in the workforce, will have a negative impact on earnings growth, the strategists say."Domestic population aging may reduce earnings growth for several reasons. It leads to slower workforce growth, reducing domestic economic growth. There is also evidence that aging can reduce innovation and productivity growth," the strategists said.That's especially true for companies that derive revenue from international operations, the strategists say."For companies that derive more of their revenue from abroad, like multinationals, global population aging (in a GDP-weighted sense) is likely to be more consequential for earnings growth than local population aging," the strategists wrote.That means equity market indexes with small and mid-caps will likely see more impact from local population aging than those with exclusively large caps.Valuations will also take a hit, the strategists said. As the elderly empty their retirement funds, national savings decline, thus raising bond yields. Older populations also pull out of the market at higher rates, driving down stock prices.Those trends, plus lower earnings growth expectations, justify lower valuations, the strategists say.The strategists say there's one bright spot, though. That's healthcare, which older populations tend to spend more on."We find a clear positive relationship between aging and excess returns on the sector, driven entirely by faster earnings growth," the strategists said.A 1% increase in the population share of those over 65 will lead to a 0.85% increase in health care returns over a 10-year period, the strategists say.The strategists note, too, that the populating aging trend won't impact countries equally. In China, the elderly share of the population is set to increase by seven percentage points in the next decade. The US, meanwhile, will see a more moderate rise from 18.1% to 21.5%.Past reports have also warned of the aging population's impact on the economy.Earlier this year, Barclays economist Jonathan Millar said boomers, a historically large generation, are approaching <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/baby-boomer-gen-z-millennials-economy-housing-job-market-stocks-2024-2">"peak burden" on the US economy</a> in the next few years. Meanwhile, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/recession-economy-outlook-us-stock-market-ownership-old-americans-retirement-2024-1">a larger share of people over 55% owning stocks</a> in the US may be a downside risk to the market, as older investors often don't have the luxury of holding through a downturn and could exacerbate volatility by selling during market pullbacks.

The world population is growing older. That's bad news for the stock market.

<keyword id="21333142" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="Indias-population" source="keywords">India's population</keyword> is projected to peak in the early 2060s at about <keyword id="22386427" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="1-7-billion" source="keywords">1.7 billion</keyword> and then decline by 12%, but the country will remain the world's most populous throughout the century, the <keyword id="19896118" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="United-Nations" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="United Nations" meta.hostid="153" meta.entityid="United Nations">United Nations</keyword> has said. The World Population Prospects 2024 report, released on Thursday, said that the world's population is expected to continue growing over the coming 50-60 years, reaching a peak of around 10.3 billion people in the mid-2080s, significantly up from 8.2 billion in 2024. After peaking, the global population is projected to start declining gradually, falling to 10.2 billion people by the end of the century. India, which surpassed <keyword id="19894886" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="China" source="keywords">China</keyword> as the world's most populous nation last year, will continue to hold that position through 2100. "The population of India, which is expected to remain the world's largest throughout the century, will likely decline by 12% after reaching its peak in the early 2060s at about 1.7 billion," the <keyword id="19898339" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="UN" source="keywords">UN</keyword> report published by the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs (DESA), <keyword id="271075" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="population-division" source="Orion">Population Division</keyword> said. According to the report, India's population in 2024 is projected at 1.45 billion and this will peak to 1.69 billion in 2054. After this, India's population is projected to decline to 1.5 billion by the end of the century in 2100, but the country will still remain the most populous nation on Earth. Responding to a question by PTI on population projections for India, Senior Population Affairs Officer, Population Division, <keyword id="6355835" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="un" source="Orion">UN</keyword> DESA Clare Menozzi said at a press conference that "India is currently the largest country in the world in terms of population, and it is projected to stay so throughout the century. The population is currently estimated at 1.45 billion, and it's supposed to increase further to 1.69 billion. "It's supposed to peak around the 2060s in size and then it starts to slightly decline. So by the end of the century, India is projected to be around 1.5 billion, but will still the largest country in the world by a large margin." The report said that China's population, currently 1.41 billion in 2024, will fall to 1.21 billion in 2054 and further decline to 633 million by 2100. "It is anticipated that China, the country currently with the world's second-largest population, will likely experience the largest absolute population loss between 2024 and 2054 (204 million)," followed by <keyword id="6355311" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Japan" source="Orion">Japan</keyword> (21 million) and <keyword id="6358826" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Russia" source="Orion">Russia</keyword> (10 million). "Longer-range population projections are more uncertain" for China, it said. "However, due to its large size and sustained low level of fertility, China is also likely to record the largest population decline of any country through the end of the century (786 million people). By 2100, China is projected to have lost more than a half of its current population and to have returned to a population size comparable to that recorded in the late 1950s (50% probability)." Responding to a question on the significantly low population projection for China, Director of the Population Division at UN DESA John Wilmoth said that "it really relates to the level of fertility that's observed currently in China. The current number is right around one birth per woman on average over a lifetime." "Given that you need 2.1 births to maintain the current population without migration, if fertility levels remain at such a low level, even if they come up slightly, any fertility level if it's below two, or especially below 1.8 or below 1.5, you're really getting into low levels of fertility and it produces a long run decline that's quite significant. And that's true for China. It's true for some other countries in this analysis," Wilmoth said. Currently, nearly one-fifth of all countries and areas, including China, Italy, the Republic of Korea and Spain, are experiencing what is sometimes referred to as "ultra-low" fertility, with fewer than 1.4 live births per woman over a lifetime. The report added that the global fertility rate currently stands at 2.25 live births per woman, down from 3.31 births in 1990. "More than half of all countries and areas globally have fertility below the replacement level of 2.1 live births per woman. This is the level required for a population to maintain a constant size in the long run (without migration), with each generation being followed by another of roughly equal size," it said. Pakistan is projected to overtake the US as the third-largest country in the world, with a population of 389 million in 2054. Currently, the US is the third largest country in the world with a population of 345 million and in 2054, it will be the fourth largest with 384 million people. Pakistan will remain the third largest country in the world, with a population of 511 million people in 2100. The report said that the estimated likelihood that the world's population will peak within the current century is very high, with a probability of 80%, a major change in UN projections from a decade ago, when this probability was around 30%. The size of the world's population in 2100 is now expected to be 6%smaller - or about 700 million people fewer - than anticipated a decade ago. In about 126 countries and areas, the population is likely to continue growing through 2054, potentially reaching a peak later in the century or beyond 2100. This group includes several of the world's most populous countries: India, Indonesia, Nigeria, Pakistan and the United States of America. In 2023, the global number of deaths among children under age 5 fell below 5 million for the first time in recent history. However, 95% of such deaths took place in the 126 countries with populations that are still growing, including the Democratic Republic of the Congo, India, Nigeria and Pakistan. The report added that globally, life expectancy at birth reached 73.3 years in 2024, an increase of 8.4 years since 1995. Further reductions in mortality are projected to result in an average longevity of around 77.4 years globally in 2054. Since 2022, life expectancy has returned to levels observed before the emergence of the coronavirus disease in nearly all countries and areas. At the height of the COVID-19 pandemic during 2020 and 2021, global life expectancy at birth fell to 70.9 years, down from 72.6 in 2019. The report said that by 2080, persons aged 65 or older will outnumber children under 18. "By the late 2070s, the number of persons at ages 65 years and higher globally is projected to reach 2.2 billion, surpassing the number of children (under age 18). By the mid-2030s, it is projected that there will be 265 million persons aged 80 years or older, more than the number of infants (1 year of age or less)," it said.

India's population to peak in early 2060s to 1.7 billion before declining: UN

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Russia's population could shrink by half by the end of the century, the <keyword id="22757247" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Atlantic-Council" source="keywords">Atlantic Council</keyword> said.</li><li>The <keyword id="22757248" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Russian-Ukraine-war" source="keywords">Russian-Ukraine war</keyword> has accelerated the <keyword id="20234670" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="population-decline" source="keywords">population decline</keyword>. </li></ul>Russia's economy has a dire demographic problem on its hands, and the nation could see its population slashed in half by the end of the century, according to the Atlantic Council. The report from the Washington, DC, think tank — written by Harley Balzer, a professor emeritus at Georgetown University — points to Russia's long-running <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/putin-calls-russians-more-babies-ethnic-survival-economy-2024-2" target="_blank">population decline</a>. The nation's overall population growth has shrunk over the past 10 years, according to <a href="https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/POPTOTRUA647NWDB" target="_blank">World Bank</a> data. That decline has been exacerbated by the Russian-Ukraine war. <a target="_blank" href="https://www.reuters.com/world/us-intelligence-assesses-ukraine-war-has-cost-russia-315000-casualties-source-2023-12-12/">Russian casualties climbed above 300,000</a> at the end of 2023, according to US Intelligence officials, and about a million <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-ukraine-war-economy-soviet-union-spending-workers-flee-imf-2024-2">Russians fled the country</a> soon after Vladimir Putin ordered the invasion of Ukraine. The demographic trend spells trouble for Russia's economy, which is already dealing with a <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-lacks-workers-ukraine-war-labor-crisis-worker-shortage-2023-12">severe worker shortage</a>. At the end of 2023, Russia was short a record 5 million workers, according to an estimate from the Russian Academy of Science's Institute of Economics. Russia has turned to <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-making-labor-crisis-worse-sending-workers-to-war-ukraine-2023-11" target="_blank">migrant</a> and even <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russian-economy-worker-shortage-prison-labor-ukraine-war-putin-kremlin-2023-10" target="_blank">prison labor</a> to supplement its workforce, but those aren't sustainable solutions to its population problem, Balzer says. "Putin's government has not evinced visible concern that Russia's population might be cut in half by century's end. Unless Russia's leaders can develop and finance a more effective set of policies, the only solutions to population decline will be a combination of incorporating non-Russian territory and/or immigration from Asia and Africa," Balzer said in the <a href="https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/A-Russia-without-Russians-Putins-disastrous-demographics.pdf" target="_blank">report</a> this week. "As Russia's population continues to decline, immigrants will be increasingly vital to economic recovery," he added. Experts have said a shrinking population could result in a number of problems for <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/currencies/russia-economy-ukraine-war-tech-reverse-industrialization-central-bank-finland-2023-3">Russia's economy</a>, like lower growth and productivity. By 2026, that could put <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russian-economy-brain-drain-labor-shortage-workforce-exodus-capital-flight-2023-9">Russia's economy on track to fall behind Indonesia's</a>, where population is rising, the Atlantic Council previously predicted. "Putin's choice of timing for military aggression in Ukraine might have reflected an understanding that Russia's demographic (and economic) situation would not improve in the next two decades. However, the war is turning a growing crisis into a catastrophe," they added. Russia's economy isn't on solid footing to begin with, particularly as its invasion of Ukraine grows more costly and damages its economic ties to global markets. Moscow is on track to fall into a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-economy-collapse-recession-moscow-ukraine-war-us-dollar-energy-2024-7#:~:text=According%20to%20UC%20Berkeley%20economist,steady%20flow%20of%20US%20dollars.">severe recession</a> by the end of the year, one UC Berkeley economist previously told Business Insider, pointing to Russia's collapsed energy trade and its waning access to the US dollar. Correction: August 9, 2024 — An earlier version of this story misstated who wrote the Atlantic Council report. It was written by Harley Balzer, a professor emeritus at Georgetown University, not multiple Atlantic Council researchers.

Russia's economy faces a demographic disaster and risks seeing its population reduced by half by the end of this century, think tank says

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Global government borrowing is set to hit $100 trillion this year, the International Monetary Fund said.</li><li>It pointed to political uncertainty, aversion to tax hikes, and spending pressures as key drivers.</li></ul>Global public debt is on track to surpass $100 trillion this year for the first time — and the increase threatens a wider financial crisis, the International Monetary Fund warned.In a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/FM/Issues/2024/10/23/fiscal-monitor-october-2024">report</a> published Tuesday, IMF researchers said total government borrowing was set to reach 93% of worldwide GDP this year and could hit 100% by 2030, with the US and China driving the increase.Mushrooming public debts "<a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-debt-34-trillion-deficit-government-spending-economy-recession-jpmorgan-2024-1">raise the probability</a> of debt distress or broader financial crisis," the authors noted, adding that the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-national-debt-government-spending-stock-market-financial-crisis-economy-2024-3">interest payments</a> eat into government budgets, reduce spending flexibility and hinder their ability to respond to economic downturns.The IMF also warned of a "severely adverse scenario," in which global debt could balloon to 115% of global GDP by 2026 because of "weaker growth, tighter financing conditions, fiscal slippages, and greater economic and policy uncertainty.""Countries are increasingly vulnerable to global factors affecting their borrowing costs, including spillovers from greater policy uncertainty in systematically important countries, such as the United States," the authors wrote in a blog accompanying the report.The report's authors projected that around two-thirds of countries would stabilize or reduce their debts in the coming years, but added there were "<a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-debt-outlook-56-trillion-cbo-government-budget-deficit-gdp-2024-6">good reasons</a>" future debt could be higher than projected.Those include a broader political embrace of increased government spending, stiffer resistance from lawmakers to higher taxes, and pressure to spend on priorities such as the clean-energy transition, aging populations, and national security.America's national debt has <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-debt-problem-explained-deficit-gdp-inflation-economy-interest-rates-2024-4">more than tripled</a> in under 25 years, ballooning from $10.3 trillion in 2000 to a record $35.7 trillion, according to the US Treasury website.It has grown by more than $7 trillion since 2019, reflecting the US government's <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/federal-reserve-powell-government-spending-national-debt-fiscal-deficit-interest-2024-2">aggressive spending</a> during the COVID-19 pandemic and more recent outlays such as <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-spent-over-22-billion-arming-israel-battling-houthis-2024-10">military support for Israel</a> and Ukraine, which together have cost it <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/how-america-spent-over-100-billion-defending-ukraine-2024-8">well over $100 billion</a>.The debt looks set to grow further with both presidential candidates, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/what-you-need-to-know-about-kamala-harris-opportunity-economy-2024-9">Kamala Harris</a> and <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-tax-plan-tarriffs-benefits-top-earners-study-2024-10">Donald Trump</a>, pledging to spend big if they enter the White House. Harris <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/kamala-harris-economy-proposal-25k-first-time-homebuyers-down-payent-2024-8">proposed</a> offering down-payment assistance for first-time homebuyers, and expanding the child tax credit and capping childcare costs to help young parents. Trump has <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/tax-tips-overtime-trump-proposals-income-money-election-2024-10">suggested eliminating</a> taxes on tips, overtime pay, and Social Security while also extending many of the tax cuts he made as president in 2017.

Global government borrowing is set to top $100 trillion — and shows no signs of slowing down

Incidence of stroke and related deaths are rising substantially around the world, with <keyword id="19900550" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="air-pollution" source="keywords">air pollution</keyword>, <keyword id="21334318" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="high-temperatures" source="keywords">high temperatures</keyword> and metabolic risk factors such as high blood pressure and physical inactivity, driving these increases, according to estimates published in The Lancet Neurology journal. Researchers found that the contribution of high temperatures to poor health and early death due to stroke has increased 72% since 1990 and is likely to continue increasing in the future, thereby highlighting how environmental factors can impact growing stroke burden. Further, for the first time, particulate matter or PM air pollution was found to have the same contribution as smoking towards causing a fatal form of brain bleed, according to the researchers forming the <keyword id="20691740" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Global-Burden-of-Disease" source="keywords">Global Burden of Disease</keyword>, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) group. The GBD study, the "largest and most comprehensive effort to quantify health loss across places and over time", is coordinated by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME), University of Washington, US. Globally, the number of people experiencing a stroke for the first time rose to 119 lakh in 2021 -- up by 70% since 1990 -- while deaths related to stroke rose to 73 lakh, which was up by 44% since 1990, making the neurological condition the third leading cause of death after ischaemic heart disease (short supply of blood to heart) and COVID-19. They added that over three-fourth of those affected by strokes live in low- and middle-income countries. According to lead author Valery L. Feigin from Auckland University of Technology, New Zealand, the rapid growth in the number of people affected by stroke strongly suggested that <keyword id="23228151" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="stroke-prevention" source="keywords">stroke prevention</keyword> strategies currently used are not sufficiently effective. "New, proven effective population-wide and motivational individual prevention strategies that could be applied to all people at risk of having a stroke, regardless of the level of risk, as recommended in the recent Lancet Neurology Commission on Stroke should be implemented across the globe urgently," said Feigin. The researchers also estimated that stroke-related liabilities attributable to 23 modifiable risk factors, including air pollution, excess body weight, high blood pressure, smoking and physical inactivity, increased from 100 million years of healthy life lost in 1990 to 135 million in 2021. These risk factors are present in huge numbers in Eastern Europe, Asia and sub-Saharan Africa, they said. The authors also acknowledged substantial progress made in reducing the global stroke burden from risk factors linked to poor diet, air pollution and smoking. Poor health resulting from diets high in processed meat and low in vegetables declined by 40 % and 30%, respectively, while that due to PM air pollution and smoking fell by 20 % and 13%, respectively, they found. The results suggested that strategies for reducing exposure to these risk factors over the past three decades such as clean air zones and public smoking bans have been successful, the authors said. They called for implementing and monitoring the evidence-based recommendations set out in the 2023 World Stroke Organization-Lancet Neurology Commission on stroke for drastically reducing the global burden of stroke in the years to come and improving brain health and overall well-being of millions of people around the world. The recommendations include stroke surveillance programmes that monitor indicators of stroke such as incidence, recurrence, death rates and risk factors in a country, and care and rehabilitation services for people affected by stroke.

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Global fossil emissions to reach record high in 2024; India's share to rise by 4.6 pc: Report

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Russia's economy faces a demographic disaster and risks seeing its population reduced by half by the end of this century, think tank says

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Global government borrowing is set to top $100 trillion — and shows no signs of slowing down

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Stroke cases increasing globally, air pollution, high temperatures driving numbers, notes Lancet Study

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