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<ul class="summary-list"><li>The FBI said Iran had planned to assassinate Donald Trump. </li><li>It comes amid a spike in political assassinations and plots.</li></ul>When Donald Trump addressed the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/republican-national-convention-rnc-biggest-moments-speeches-photos-2024-7">RNC convention</a> to rapturous applause this week, he wore a bandage on his ear and raised his fist in triumph.Just days earlier, he had narrowly evaded an assassin's bullet while speaking at a rally in <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/donald-trump-butler-pennsylvania-rally-secret-service-2024-7">Pennsylvania</a>. It's not the only assassination plot believed to have targeted the former president in recent weeks. On Tuesday,<a target="_blank" class="" href="https://edition.cnn.com/2024/07/16/politics/iran-plot-assassinate-trump-secret-service/index.html"> CNN </a>reported that security officials had uncovered an Iranian plan to kill the GOP's 2024 candidate.These are far from isolated incidents, either nationally or globally.<h2 id="f4455eb0-ad62-4ad7-824a-6d7cca3c6b28">A wave of violence against political leaders</h2>Around the world, politics has been rocked by a wave of assassinations of political leaders, dissidents, and other high-profile figures.In the UK, political assassinations were once rare, but two members of parliament were assassinated in five years. Member of Parliament Jo Cox was killed in 2016 amid the Brexit referendum, and <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/conservative-mp-david-amess-stabbed-report-2021-10">Sir David Amess in 2021 by an Islamic extremist.</a>In May, Slovakian<a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.in/international/news/cowardly-and-dastardly-act-pm-modi-condemns-attack-on-slovak-pm-fico-wishes-him-a-speedy-recovery/articleshow/110164825.cms"> Prime Minister Robert Fico </a>narrowly survived being shot by a would-be assassin, and Russian opposition leader Alexander Navalny died in prison in February in what many observers believe was a killing ordered by <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/putin-said-navalny-death-sad-event-but-such-is-life-2024-3">Russia's President Vladimir Putin. </a>The Kremlin denied the accusations.Last year, former <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/live-updates-japans-former-prime-minister-shinzo-abe-shot-2022-7">Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe</a>, Ecuadorian presidential candidate Fernando Villavicencio, and Serbian Prime Minister Zoran Djindjic were assassinated.Dissidents have also been targeted. The assassination of <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/the-murder-of-jamal-khashoggi-2019-10">Saudi Arabian dissident Jamal Khashoggi in the Saudi consulate in Turkey</a> in 2018 was, according to the CIA, likely committed on the direct orders of Saudi ruler Mohammed bin Salman. Saudi Arabia said the allegations were "'negative, false, and unacceptable."<h2 id="5ff4d59d-08a3-4531-814e-0c1d63183db1">Political violence is on the rise</h2><div type="image" title="khashoggi" height="1333" width="2000" msid="111842518" hostid="261" sizebytes="99874"></div>Though data on the frequency of political assassinations is hard to come by, studies do indicate a spike in the number of ideologically motivated killings being committed globally.According to the University of<a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.start.umd.edu/gtd/search/Results.aspx?expanded=no&amp;casualties_type=b&amp;casualties_max=&amp;dtp2=all&amp;success=yes&amp;attack=1&amp;ob=GTDID&amp;od=desc&amp;page=1&amp;count=100#results-table"> Maryland's Global Terrorism Database</a>, the number of political assassinations rose steadily from fewer than 100 in 1999 to 900 in 2015 and around 600 in 2020 (the last year where data is available.)Bruce Hoffman, an expert on terrorism at the Council on Foreign Relations, told Business Insider that rising political violence is the outcome of increasing global instability.And the violence, he said, is the "ineluctable outcome of the factors producing the rising global instability — namely, the growing political polarization leading to extremism that we see in a variety of western democracies and the collapse in confidence of the liberal democratic state leading to the growing embrace extremist or authoritarian solutions.""Finally, there is the rise in mistrust and lack of confidence in elected leaders — all of which has created the rising global instability," said Hoffman.It's worth noting that the motivation of the would-be Trump assassin in Pennsylvania remains unknown. According to the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.nytimes.com/2024/07/17/us/trump-shooting-crooks-motive.html">New York Time</a>s, the shooter had searched for images of Trump, President Joe Biden, Attorney General Merrick Garland, and FBI Director Christopher Wray on his cellphones and other electronic devices.But other assassination plots have had very clear political motivations. In 2020, a plot targeting Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer was formed by far-right militia members, while <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/paul-pelosi-attacker-david-depape-sentence-terrorism-2024-5">Paul Pelosi, the husband of former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi,</a> was attacked in 2022 by a hammer-wielding assailant who'd promoted right-wing conspiracy theories.The plots aren't confined to the far-right, with a gunman who'd espoused left-wing views opening fire and injuring conservative lawmakers at a baseball event in Washington, DC, in 2017.Tommy Mair, the man responsible for murdering UK MP Jo Cox, had also promoted far-right views, while the Fico assassination attempt is believed to have been committed for political reasons.<h2 id="034c2068-5445-4e6a-8220-5f1be0bb7c06">State-backed assassinations spread chaos</h2><div type="image" title="Fico assassination" height="682" width="1024" msid="111842517" hostid="261" sizebytes="38552"></div>Another factor behind the spike in assassinations is the increasing instability of the global political order.Assassinations ordered or committed by nation-states are on the rise amid intensifying competition, an erosion of the norms that governed international politics, and a perceived waning of US power.States such as India and Saudi Arabia are aggressively asserting themselves.Incidents such as the Khashoggi killing may once have sparked severe repercussions, but the US needs strong Saudi ties to maintain its power in the Middle East. It's not just US allies, but enemies that are exploiting the confusion.The Trump assassination wasn't the only one being allegedly planned by Iran on US soil, with Trump administration <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/john-bolton-embarrassed-low-price-300000-assassination-iran-irgc-2022-8">figures such as John Bolton </a>and leading dissidents also targeted.Hoffman pointed to another pattern behind recent state-sponsored plots in the US: They're often planned in US election years to evade repercussions."Foreign countries believe opportunistically they can perhaps escape retribution by striking in an election year," he said.<h2 id="83e84d11-cf22-4db5-b35e-5bbc6443340d">New technology makes assassinations easier</h2>New technology is making assassinations easier, with one Russian plot against Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy involving exploding drones that don't require the assassin to get close to the target. It's an echo of the plot to kill Venezuelan President Nicholas Maduro with drones in 2018.<a target="_blank" class="" href="https://gnet-research.org/2022/06/23/the-future-is-now-the-use-of-3d-printed-guns-by-extremists-and-terrorists/">According to experts,</a> terrorists are increasingly using 3D printed guns. A home-assembled firearm was used to kill Abe to evade Japanese gun control laws.The motives of political assassins, say experts, are varied. Some believe they can tip the balance in elections, others are acting on the orders of authoritarian governments to intimidate dissidents, while some are acts of war to eliminate crucial figures in an enemy government or military.But a core motivation for some, argue Hoffman and analyst Jacob <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://warontherocks.com/2022/08/the-accelerating-threat-of-the-political-assassination/">Ware in a 2022 article,</a> is to accelerate global chaos and violence."For extremists seeking to sow chaos and speed up some cataclysmic societal collapse, high-profile politicians provide an attractive target" as they embody the order the assassins want to destroy, they said.

Political assassinations are on the rise. It's a symptom of growing global instability.

<keyword id="19991358" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="Indian-markets" source="keywords">Indian markets</keyword> are navigating choppy waters as global economic shifts, from rate cuts to evolving political climates, create new pressure points across the financial landscape, according to a recent report by ANI attributed originally to the Union Bank of India. The domestic stock and bond markets showed signs of strain, with <keyword id="19910363" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="bond-yields" source="keywords">bond yields</keyword> witnessing slight adjustments. India’s 10-year government bond yield dipped to 6.82%, a decrease from the previous session, reflecting cautious investor sentiment as the markets react to shifting global indicators. Meanwhile, the 5-year bond yield remained steady at 6.76%, a signal of lingering hesitation amid economic unpredictability. In the currency market, the rupee faced a notable decline, ending the day at ₹84.3725 against the US dollar, slipping from its prior close of ₹84.2800. Market analysts point to significant capital outflows as a key factor, with investors moving funds to perceived safer assets overseas. This migration has weighed heavily on the rupee, underlining the currency’s vulnerability in an environment of global economic flux. India’s stock market bore the brunt of this volatility, with key indices falling over 1%, effectively erasing the gains of a previous rally. This abrupt drop reportedly reflects renewed investor anxiety, largely triggered by the recent <keyword id="20189882" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="US-presidential-election" source="keywords">US presidential election</keyword> results. Experts suggest that the election has introduced a fresh layer of uncertainty, not only for the US economy but for global markets, impacting everything from policy decisions to investor sentiment. Analysts are also keeping a close eye on upcoming decisions by central banks, which will likely shape the path forward for the Indian equities market. Commodities showed contrasting trends, with Brent crude prices falling on lower demand expectations, as economic indicators point toward cautious spending globally. Gold, on the other hand, experienced a modest rise as investors sought refuge in safe-haven assets, highlighting a shift towards risk aversion among market participants. Globally, major central banks made coordinated efforts to sustain economic growth, with the Bank of England (BoE) announcing a 25 basis-point cut, lowering its benchmark rate to 4.75%. The BoE’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) largely backed this move to counter inflation, which has been declining, albeit gradually. Across the Atlantic, the US Federal Reserve mirrored this action with its own 25 basis-point cut, a sign of confidence in the ongoing economic recovery. Both rate cuts, though modest, signal a global trend towards caution as economies work to balance growth with stability. In Asia, the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) maintained its supportive stance. Governor Pan Gongsheng sought to reassure foreign investors by reaffirming the PBoC’s commitment to growth-oriented policies. Pan emphasized enhanced communication and pledged to open China’s financial services sector further, aiming to attract more international participants. Europe, meanwhile, faced mixed economic signals. Germany reported a steep 2.5% drop in industrial production in September, signalling a slowdown in manufacturing, while the Eurozone saw a mild 0.5% rise in retail sales, reflecting cautious consumer optimism in the region. Adding another layer to the global economic landscape, the European Union’s Climate Change Service warned that 2024 could be the hottest year on record, underscoring urgent climate challenges just as the UN COP29 climate summit approaches. The summit, set to take place in Azerbaijan, aims to rally increased funding for climate action, though tempered expectations linger in light of recent US political shifts. On the domestic front, Niti Aayog CEO BVR Subrahmanyam spoke about India’s potential role in pivotal global trade agreements, specifically the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) and the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP). These partnerships, Subrahmanyam suggested, could bolster India’s Micro, Small, and Medium Enterprises (MSME) sector, which currently accounts for 40% of India’s exports, offering a strategic advantage for Indian trade in an interconnected world. As the Indian markets digest these developments, experts believe continued volatility could be the theme for the coming months. (with ANI inputs)

Indian markets under pressure as global rate cuts stir uncertainty, new report says

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Donald Trump wants to divide US rivals Russia and China.</li><li>An area of tension is China's new assertiveness in Central Asia.</li></ul>At the Valdai forum last week, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/six-telling-moments-putin-speech-valdai-congratulated-trump-china-ukraine-2024-11">Russian President Vladimir Putin</a> was keen to tamp down rumors of simmering tensions with his closest global ally, China's leader <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/xi-jinping-painful-road-ahead-rainy-days-new-stimulus-china-2024-10">Xi Jinping.</a>The source of the perceived tension is <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/donald-trump-plan-divide-china-russia-axis-is-likely-fail-2024-11">China's growing assertiveness in Central Asia</a>. The region is the latest area in which Xi has launched an audacious bid to increase his political and economic authority and cement its dominance in rare-earth minerals."What is happening in <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/turkmenistan-what-life-is-like-inside-secretive-dictatorship-2019-10">Central Asia? </a>Many expected it to be a site of conflict or clash between China and Russia," Putin told the forum. "This has not happened."But the reassurances will not convince everyone, and among those <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/donald-trump-plan-divide-china-russia-axis-is-likely-fail-2024-11">on the lookout for signs of division</a> between Putin and Xi is President-elect Donald Trump. The Republican, days before his election, criticized the Biden Administration for allowing China and Russia, the US' two most powerful adversaries, to draw closer together and said that when he takes office, he'd be seeking to drive them apart. The power grab over rare-earth minerals in Central Asia could be among the issues he will seek to exploit.<h2 id="421107c0-1c53-4350-b648-36a082b91bd8">A power struggle over rare-earth minerals </h2>At stake for the US in Central Asia is not just political power but access to the region's reserves of <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-rare-earth-minerals-stockpile-mystery-opacity-worries-experts-2024-6">rare-earth minerals</a> such as uranium, lithium, and tantalum.Rare-earth minerals are needed to make all sorts of products, from F-35 stealth fighters and smartphones to internet <a target="_blank" rel=" nofollow" href="https://www.sciencenews.org/article/rare-earth-elements-properties-technology">fiber-optic cables</a> and MRI machines."If rare earth elements are the crude oil of the 21st century, then Central Asia and Mongolia may be the Saudi Arabias of these strategic minerals," <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://thediplomat.com/2023/12/central-asias-rare-earths-may-fuel-energy-transition/">wrote</a> Wilder Alejandro Sánchez, an analyst at consulting firm Second Floor Strategies."Just like the Middle East, the region is subject to intense and divergent political pressures. Russia and China border the region, each exercising their influence at the other's expense and eager to keep the West out."<div type="image" title="Putin - Xi" height="683" width="1024" msid="115221998" hostid="261" sizebytes="62066"></div>China has the biggest global reserves of these materials. It produces around 60% of the world's rare-earth minerals and processes nearly 90%, according to <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.csis.org/analysis/what-chinas-ban-rare-earths-processing-technology-exports-means">the Center for Strategic and International Studies.</a>To cement its dominance, China is also <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/xi-china-putin-russia-frenemies-limits-power-sphere-influence-2024-7">spending billions on infrastructure in Central Asia</a> and brokering new trade and security deals.At the same time, Western leaders are seeking to strengthen their influence in the area and secure access to its resources. France's President Emmanuel Macron visited Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan last November and Germany's Chancellor Olaf Scholz visited the region in September.'It would be a blow to our interests if either China or Russia established overwhelming influence there," John Herbst, who served as US Ambassador to Uzbekistan between 2000-2003, told Business Insider. "The key, of course, are Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan.""Rare earths, especially in Kazakhstan, are one more reason to establish closer relations in the region and especially its two principal nations."Stefan Wolff, a professor of international security at the University of Birmingham in the UK told BI that Trump could seek to broker a deal with Putin to gain better US access to developing Central Asia's rare-earth mineral resources — and exclude China."There are rare-earth minerals worth exploring/exploiting, and if the US/EU could strike a major deal with [Kazakhstan's capital] Astana, this would certainly contribute to breaking China's monopoly," said Wolff."So, the incentive is clearly there to regain a foothold in Central Asia."<div type="image" title="Xi, Kazakhstan" height="683" width="1024" msid="115222002" hostid="261" sizebytes="38170"></div><h2 id="ba868742-2b53-45b0-8d95-8cef1355430c">Central Asian nations seek autonomy from the Kremlin </h2>China's growing presence in Central Asia is likely enraging the Kremlin, say observers. But Russia is so indebted to China for its diplomatic and economic support in Ukraine, that it's in no position to protest. "There are clearly tensions between Russia and the Central Asian successor states of the Soviet Union," Wolff said.He pointed to recent tensions between Kazakhstan and Russia. The Central Asian<a target="_blank" href="https://www.politico.eu/article/russia-bans-vegetables-from-kazakhstan-after-country-refuses-to-join-brics/"> nations refused to join the BRICS </a>alliance, which Russia has sought to expand as a bulwark against the US. In October, Russia banned some agricultural exports to Kazakhstan in response.Despite Putin's bid to portray the relationship with China in Central Asia as part of a mutually beneficial "no limits" partnership, tensions remain between them.For now, Xi and Putin are determined to supplant the US as the world's dominant powers."But if one of them decides that working against the US damages their international position, their partnership will wither away because even today there are tensions in their relationship," said Herbst."Even today, China has not hidden its long-term revanchist ambitions over Russian, Kazakhstani, Kyrgyz, and Tajikistani territory."<h2 id="b5d0c707-0b3e-4b5e-9154-35b569ac4c2d">Russia and China have too much to gain</h2>For now, dismantling China and Russia to gain more US access to Central Asia seems like a long shot.Russia and China have too much to gain from excluding the US from Central Asia, regardless of how much Trump may seek to exploit tensions between Putin and Xi."It is unlikely that as long as Putin considers the US its main adversary, Russia would break with China. That would not change because of some American initiative in Central Asia," said Herbst.Putin sees in Xi a more predictable partner than the mercurial Trump, said Wolff."Putin and his regime are simply more likely to survive in partnership with Xi. I don't think that Putin sees Trump as a dependable partner in any potential deal," he said. "That's not to say that there won't be a transactional improvement in relations between Washington and Moscow, but it will not derail the relationship between Beijing and Moscow."

How Trump could exploit a looming global struggle for rare-earth minerals

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Elon Musk's ownership has shifted X's political stance, affecting Democratic ad spending.</li><li>Some Democratic ad campaigns still see opportunities in ads on X, formerly known as Twitter.</li></ul>While some Democratic political advertisers — including Kamala Harris' presidential campaign — have stopped spending on X altogether, a small number are holding firm.Two years after billionaire Elon <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/elon-musk-twitter-reach-agreement-to-close-acquisition-deal-2022-10">Musk bought X</a>, the social media site formerly known as Twitter leans far more conservative. Musk has <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/elon-musk-donald-trump-support-reflects-business-approach-tesla-2024-10">fundraised for Trump</a>, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/donald-trump-rally-elon-musk-save-department-government-efficiency-2024-10">revved up supporters</a> at his rallies, and apparently has an open spot in the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/elon-musk-trump-cabinet-election-x-2024-9">former president's cabinet</a> should he win next week's election.That hasn't stopped some Democratic campaigns from advertising on X. <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/colin-allred-interview-ted-cruz-texas-senate-race-2024-10">Rep. Colin Allred</a> ran ads this month to drum up donations as he seeks to defeat Sen. Ted Cruz in the Texas Senate race. The @ColinAllredTX account has spent almost $322,000 on X ads this year, per an analysis of X's US political and campaigning ads disclosure report. The public archive was last updated on October 26.Elsewhere, Sen. Jon Tester of Montana has run an ad in the style of an iPhone Notes app message featuring a picture of him holding a jar of pickles."There's no denying it—we're in a pickle," read the ad, which seeks donations for Tester's reelection campaign. The account has spent about $259,000 in the year to date, the X ad disclosure reported.X didn't respond to a request for comment for this story.<h2 id="1aae6362-1585-415f-8352-1b0033713ae0">X remains a town square for news</h2>Political ad experts said X remains an essential platform for reaching voters in the tightly fought election period. Notable users are still posting, and it's still one of the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/twitter-x-elon-musk-startup-competitition-town-square-election-2024-10">first places</a> where people of all political leanings go to catch up on breaking news. Harris still posts frequently on X, even though her campaign isn't buying ads.X CEO Linda Yaccarino <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://x.com/lindayaX/status/1823115684479414761">tweeted in August</a> that 37 million Democrats, 32 million Republicans, and 34 million swing voters use X, citing <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://digiday.com/marketing/the-rundown-what-is-causeway-solutions/">Causeway Solutions</a>, a data firm with Republican links that applies predictive modeling to publicly available data."One side of the aisle may be more comfortable advertising on X, but that doesn't mean you can leave a vacuum on the other side," said Tyler Goldberg, director of political strategy at the media agency Assembly Global. "There's a reason why you see Democrats on Fox News buying ads."Mike Nellis, CEO of the Democratic campaign firm Authentic, said X has performed particularly well for fundraising pushes for "name brand" Democrats. Nellis, who organized the <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/white-dudes-for-harris-twitter-account-elon-musk-donald-trump-2024-7">"White Dudes for Harris" online fundraiser</a>, also said X had improved its offering for creators who pay to be verified to boost their reach and access tools like analytics and its Media Studio."I have a love-hate relationship with this website. It has a vibrancy to it I don't think has been there for a very long time, and I'm enjoying that aspect in the middle of a close election," Nellis said. "At the same time, I've been doxxed on this website."X has made a dedicated effort to bring in political campaign ad buyers. Last November, it convened a group of them for cocktails at the Riggs Hotel in Washington, DC.Led by Matthew Madrazo, X's lead client partner for Republican accounts, and Jonathan Phelps, X's lead client partner for the Democratic side, the X political ads team pitched advertisers on the site's audience, the evolution of its ads offering, and how X intended to show up for US elections.Attendees described a room packed with political agencies and campaign honchos from both sides of the aisle — as well as multiple ID checks and super-tight security prowling the room to enforce the strict "no recording" policy. There was no Q&amp;A.<h2 id="42ea127c-9e5a-44d4-aefd-d16f557dd547">X is falling short on lost advertising revenue</h2>Republicans far outspend Democrats on X. @TeamTrump alone has spent close to $1 million this year; @LaraLeaTrump, @tedcruz, and @RandPaul are among the Republican accounts that have spent more than $500,000, X's ad disclosure said.The roughly $15 million spent so far by all political advertisers this year falls dramatically short of the $100 million target X had reportedly set itself for the 2024 US election cycle, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.ft.com/content/b7845bef-55d5-4297-a15a-db37f71e014e">the Financial Times reported</a>.Pre-Musk, Twitter generated under $3 million in political ad spend for the 2018 US midterms, <a target="_blank" href="https://x.com/nedsegal/status/1189651487065923584?lang=en-GB">according to Ned Segal, its former chief financial officer</a>. It ceased taking political advertising in 2019 under former CEO Jack Dorsey; Musk <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/political-advertisers-cheer-elon-musk-twitter-political-ad-ban-reversal-2023-1">reversed</a> that decision last year.Political advertising on X had always been a tiny portion of the total. The research firm EMARKETER predicted that political ad spending in the US will <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.emarketer.com/content/what-marketers-learn-political-campaign-ad-spending-strategies">top $12 billion</a> this year. TV advertising, at $7 billion, accounts for most of that outlay. Meta and Google are forecast to be the big online winners, bringing in around $569 million and $553 million from political ads, respectively.In August, ad spending on X was down 68% versus the prior year, according to Guideline, an analytics firm that tracks spending from major advertising agencies.X has been banking on the US election season to recoup revenue lost after several major brands dialed down their spending on the site or <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/ebiquity-data-most-advertisers-stopped-spending-x-twitter-2023-10">exited altogether</a> amid concerns about content moderation and its general reliability and effectiveness. Some Democratic advertisers said X is a no-go zone for similar reasons."Between the hate speech that's going unpoliced to the ad placements that are being shown alongside it to Elon himself, it's at the point where it's not a great fit for many clients," said Mark Jablonowski, president of the Democratic political adtech firm DSPolitical.Andy Kiersz contributed reporting for this story.

Some Democratic political advertisers are still betting on X, despite Elon Musk's allegiance with Donald Trump

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Global government borrowing is set to hit $100 trillion this year, the International Monetary Fund said.</li><li>It pointed to political uncertainty, aversion to tax hikes, and spending pressures as key drivers.</li></ul>Global public debt is on track to surpass $100 trillion this year for the first time — and the increase threatens a wider financial crisis, the International Monetary Fund warned.In a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/FM/Issues/2024/10/23/fiscal-monitor-october-2024">report</a> published Tuesday, IMF researchers said total government borrowing was set to reach 93% of worldwide GDP this year and could hit 100% by 2030, with the US and China driving the increase.Mushrooming public debts "<a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-debt-34-trillion-deficit-government-spending-economy-recession-jpmorgan-2024-1">raise the probability</a> of debt distress or broader financial crisis," the authors noted, adding that the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-national-debt-government-spending-stock-market-financial-crisis-economy-2024-3">interest payments</a> eat into government budgets, reduce spending flexibility and hinder their ability to respond to economic downturns.The IMF also warned of a "severely adverse scenario," in which global debt could balloon to 115% of global GDP by 2026 because of "weaker growth, tighter financing conditions, fiscal slippages, and greater economic and policy uncertainty.""Countries are increasingly vulnerable to global factors affecting their borrowing costs, including spillovers from greater policy uncertainty in systematically important countries, such as the United States," the authors wrote in a blog accompanying the report.The report's authors projected that around two-thirds of countries would stabilize or reduce their debts in the coming years, but added there were "<a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-debt-outlook-56-trillion-cbo-government-budget-deficit-gdp-2024-6">good reasons</a>" future debt could be higher than projected.Those include a broader political embrace of increased government spending, stiffer resistance from lawmakers to higher taxes, and pressure to spend on priorities such as the clean-energy transition, aging populations, and national security.America's national debt has <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-debt-problem-explained-deficit-gdp-inflation-economy-interest-rates-2024-4">more than tripled</a> in under 25 years, ballooning from $10.3 trillion in 2000 to a record $35.7 trillion, according to the US Treasury website.It has grown by more than $7 trillion since 2019, reflecting the US government's <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/federal-reserve-powell-government-spending-national-debt-fiscal-deficit-interest-2024-2">aggressive spending</a> during the COVID-19 pandemic and more recent outlays such as <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-spent-over-22-billion-arming-israel-battling-houthis-2024-10">military support for Israel</a> and Ukraine, which together have cost it <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/how-america-spent-over-100-billion-defending-ukraine-2024-8">well over $100 billion</a>.The debt looks set to grow further with both presidential candidates, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/what-you-need-to-know-about-kamala-harris-opportunity-economy-2024-9">Kamala Harris</a> and <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-tax-plan-tarriffs-benefits-top-earners-study-2024-10">Donald Trump</a>, pledging to spend big if they enter the White House. Harris <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/kamala-harris-economy-proposal-25k-first-time-homebuyers-down-payent-2024-8">proposed</a> offering down-payment assistance for first-time homebuyers, and expanding the child tax credit and capping childcare costs to help young parents. Trump has <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/tax-tips-overtime-trump-proposals-income-money-election-2024-10">suggested eliminating</a> taxes on tips, overtime pay, and Social Security while also extending many of the tax cuts he made as president in 2017.

Global government borrowing is set to top $100 trillion — and shows no signs of slowing down

X (formerly Twitter) is experiencing its largest user exodus since <keyword id="6355315" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="elon-musk" source="Orion">Elon Musk</keyword> took over in 2022. The tipping point is a perfect storm of political controversy, privacy fears, and discontent with the platform’s new policies, culminating in a dramatic shift of users to alternative platforms like <keyword id="412371" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="bluesky" source="Orion">Bluesky</keyword> and <keyword id="1163500" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="threads" source="Orion">Threads</keyword>. Here’s a breakdown of the recent changes and why they’ve left users saying goodbye to X. <h2>Political backlash</h2>The day after the U.S. presidential election on November 6, X saw over 115,000 account deactivations — the most since Musk's acquisition. Many users were disillusioned by Musk's perceived alignment with newly elected President Donald Trump. Musk's vocal support for Trump during his campaign, coupled with his attendance at Republican rallies, alienated users who once trusted X as a politically neutral platform. One user, Kara Wurtz, said the election was the “final straw.” After eight years on the platform, the finance director from St. Louis decided that X was no longer delivering the content she valued. “Every time I opened it, it would throw things at me that put me in a bad mood,” she said. The political fallout didn’t just affect individuals. Prominent organisations and brands, including The Guardian and former CNN anchor Don Lemon, have also bid farewell to the platform. <h2>New terms of service spark outrage</h2>On November 15, X's updated terms of service came into effect, granting the platform a sweeping global licence to use user-generated content. This includes using posts, photos, and creative works to train artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) models. The backlash was immediate: <ul><li>Privacy Concerns: By continuing to use X, users implicitly agree to have their data — personal photos, creative work, and more — used for AI training. Artists and creators fear their intellectual property could be exploited to develop AI tools that might one day replace human creativity.</li><li>Legal Implications: Disputes over the new terms will be handled in the U.S. District Court for the Northern District of Texas, home to Judge Reed O'Connor, a Tesla investor. This has raised questions about potential bias in legal proceedings related to the platform.</li></ul>Alex Fink, CEO of the AI-powered platform Otherweb, criticised X’s lack of transparency, stating, “Unlike other platforms with vague licensing terms, X removes any ambiguity about its intentions.” <h2>Changes to blocking and safety settings</h2>Safety concerns have also escalated due to alterations in X’s block feature. Users now allegedly receive notifications that even those they block can still view their posts — though they can’t interact. This tweak is particularly alarming for users who have faced harassment on the platform. Many feel their safety is compromised, prompting them to seek refuge in safer alternatives like Bluesky, which saw a surge of 500,000 new users in just one day following the policy updates. Initially developed by former Twitter CEO Jack Dorsey, Bluesky offers customizable feeds and decentralised control, which many find refreshing. With over 16 million users (and counting), it’s quickly becoming the top choice for X refugees. Threads, Instagram’s text-based app, also surpassed 275 million monthly active users by November, with 15 million new sign-ups last month alone. For many, these platforms represent a chance to escape X’s chaos while reclaiming control over their online experience. <h2>Is Fediverse the future?</h2>Experts believe the exodus from X could mark the beginning of a new era of decentralised social networks. Bluesky, built on a protocol that enables interconnected platforms, is part of the "Fediverse," which could allow users to interact seamlessly across different apps. This shift reflects growing dissatisfaction with centralised platforms that control user data, content visibility, and privacy settings. While Musk touts record-breaking engagement on X, the cracks in the platform’s foundation are evident. Critics warn that X could become a training ground for Musk’s xAI venture, leveraging user interactions to fuel lucrative AI models. Whether X can weather this storm remains uncertain, but one thing is clear: the days of Twitter’s broad appeal as a space for open, inclusive dialogue seem to be fading fast.

Mass X-odus: What are the controversial changes on X that are driving users away?

Dhaka: <keyword id="19919639" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="bangladesh" source="keywords">Bangladesh</keyword>'s garment industry, a vital economic pillar, is facing a severe crisis due to a volatile mix of <keyword id="20444027" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="political-unrest" source="keywords">political unrest</keyword>, including violent protests, and catastrophic flooding, threatening to unravel years of rapid growth and global prominence. The textile and garment industry, which accounts for over 80 per cent of Bangladesh's total export earnings and contributes approximately 11 per cent to the nation's GDP, has been hit hard. This industry contributes significantly to export earnings and employs millions. Following the unprecedented anti-government protests, which reached a crescendo on August 5, Sheikh Hasina resigned as prime minister and fled the country. She landed in India on August 5 and is currently staying there. The two-month-long anti-quota protests have led to widespread demonstrations, curfews, and violence. This unrest has not only disrupted factory operations but has also caused significant economic losses. Factories were forced to close, and with the peak season for Christmas shipments and the booking of next season's orders upon us, the timing of the unrest has exacerbated the crisis. The Bangladesh Garment Manufacturers and Exporters Association (<keyword id="22930680" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="BGMEA" source="keywords">BGMEA</keyword>) recently has reported substantial financial losses, estimating a shortfall of Tk 6,400 crore (approx Rs 4,500 crore) due to the shutdowns and communication breakdowns. Khandoker Rafiqul Islam, the newly elected president of the BGMEA, mentioned that the goal of reaching nearly USD 45 billion in exports this year may not be achieved. He attributed this to disruptions in both export activities and production. "I think this is a temporary crisis and we will tide over it. The exact magnitude of the losses will be known later, but yes, there has been an impact," he told PTI. Echoing similar sentiments, former cabinet minister and president of BGMEA, Gholam Sarwar Milon, said the garment industry has been badly hit by both the political unrest and the floods, as both production and the supply chain of raw materials have been severely affected. "The crisis in the garment industry is unprecedented. Production is nearly 15-20 per cent less than the corresponding period last year. Several orders have dried up as investors and order suppliers are wary about investing. Several small factories have either closed down or are working on sub-contracts for big factories," he told PTI. According to BGMEA sources, out of 3,000 major and small garment factories in Bangladesh, nearly 800-900 have closed since last year. "The big factories have survived, but the small and medium factories have borne the brunt. If the situation persists, it will worsen further," he said. Milon suggested that the garment industry needs to diversify into making jute bags and other high-end clothing and also look for new markets. The Bangladesh Textile Mills Association has projected losses of around USD 58 million. The impact on the industry is compounded by the recent flooding, which has further disrupted logistics and exacerbated the economic fallout. Bangladesh's main port, Chattogram, through which more than 90 per cent of the country's international trade transits, has become a focal point of the chaos. The port's operations were paralysed during the political unrest, leading to significant delays in shipments. Factories have struggled to maintain production schedules, and backlogs at ports and airports have stretched to a month in some cases. To mitigate the damage, factories have turned to air freight and extended working hours, but these measures have not fully alleviated the delays. The president of the Bangladesh Knitwear Manufacturers and Exporters Association (BKMEA), Mohammad Hatem, said orders are down by 15-20 per cent. "The industry has incurred huge losses in the last few months. In 2014, during political unrest, we suffered a similar situation. It then took us three years to return to the previous state. We hope to tide over the situation soon as Chief Advisor <keyword id="20024384" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="muhammad-yunus" source="keywords">Muhammad Yunus</keyword> is taking several steps to restore normalcy," he told PTI. Hatem feels that if the situation is not overcome soon, there is a growing perception that foreign investors might look at new markets in other South Asian nations. "However, other South Asian markets don't have the infrastructure like Bangladesh, which has such huge production capacity," he said. The garment industry's workforce, which employs over 4 million people directly and nearly 15 million indirectly, with a significant proportion of women, faces mounting uncertainty. The sector's remarkable growth over the past two decades-from USD 5 billion in exports in 2001 to nearly USD 40 billion in 2023-now stands at risk. The floods have compounded the challenges, causing damage to infrastructure and further complicating logistics. Monsoon rainfall-triggered floods in deltaic Bangladesh and upstream Indian regions have killed several people and marooned or affected nearly 3 million others in Bangladesh, posing a huge administrative challenge to the newly installed interim government amid a political transition. "Due to the floods, the supply chain has been badly affected. We reached a high in 2023-24 where our garment exports touched around USD 46 billion. This time it is likely to be much less," said former army major and owner of a woollen garment factory, Mahfuzur Rehman. The sector's growth from a small-scale operation in the early 1980s to becoming the world's second-largest apparel exporter, after China, underscores its strength. In the financial year 2009, Bangladesh's apparel exports were valued at USD 12 billion. By the financial year 2023-24, this figure had surged to over USD 46 billion, reflecting the industry's capacity for recovery and growth even amid adversity. In response to the crisis, the interim government, now led by Nobel Peace Prize-winning economist Muhammad Yunus, has prioritised restoring order and stability. According to garment industry insiders, the path to recovery is fraught with challenges as the political instability has undermined investor confidence, and the recent flooding has further strained the already fragile infrastructure. "The sector's resilience will be tested as it attempts to regain its footing and restore its reputation as a reliable global supplier," a garment industry owner, who did not wish to be named, said. He added that despite the current crisis, Bangladesh's textile and garment industry has shown great strength and the ability to recover in the past.

Bangladesh garment industry faces crisis amid political unrest and floods

The <keyword id="22667872" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="mpox-outbreak" source="keywords">mpox outbreak</keyword> in <keyword id="19924003" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="africa" source="keywords">Africa</keyword> is yet another example of how <keyword id="20040661" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="infectious-diseases" source="keywords">infectious diseases</keyword>, perceived to be "someone else's problem", and affecting mainly poor, developing countries, may suddenly pose unexpected global threats. Other examples of <keyword id="22817243" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="neglected-diseases" source="keywords">neglected diseases</keyword> include the West Nile, Zika and Chikungunya viruses. Mpox was discovered in 1958 (in captive monkeys, hence the original misnomer "monkeypox") and the first human case was identified in 1970. Then, for decades it was largely neglected by the scientific and public health communities, regarded as an uncommon infection in remote rural areas in tropical Africa, without relevance for the rest of the world. When a massive mpox outbreak hit developed countries in 2022, increased research funding led to a surge in scientific studies. On just one medical search engine, there's been more research produced since April 2022 than in the preceding 60 years. The 2022-23 global mpox outbreak happened despite repeated calls from African researchers for increased global investment in diagnostic, therapeutic and infection prevention tools for mpox. The WHO has now declared the current upsurge of mpox in central Africa a <keyword id="21952478" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="public-health-emergency" source="keywords">public health emergency</keyword> of international concern. This is the highest alert level for events that constitute a public health risk to other countries and requires a coordinated international response. Mpox's recent history is yet another reminder that an infectious disease in one corner of the world should not be regarded as someone else's problem, as it can suddenly start to spread fast and far. It also highlights global inequities in resource allocation and access to vaccines, diagnostics and treatments. These were made available in many industrialised countries and helped curb the global outbreak, but are still largely lacking in most of Africa. <h2>The 2022 outbreak: a total surprise</h2>The disease has been renamed "mpox" but the name of the virus, for now, remains "monkeypox" (MPXV). It is closely related to the smallpox virus. MPXV was considered a <keyword id="21311828" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="zoonotic-disease" source="keywords">zoonotic disease</keyword> endemic in parts of central and west Africa. It was acquired mainly through close contact with wild mammals, especially handling bush meat, but there was no sustained human-to-human transmission. Only very occasionally were cases seen outside the endemic areas, due to infected travellers or import of infected small mammals. This changed abruptly in 2022: a massive, rapidly evolving global outbreak caused over 99,000 laboratory-confirmed cases in 116 countries. At its peak in August 2022, over 6,000 cases were reported each week. This outbreak came as a total surprise: most cases were reported from non-endemic countries, mostly in men who have sex with men, who had become infected during recent sexual encounters. Even though most cases were clinically not particularly severe and the death toll stands at just over 200, the global outbreak was declared a public health emergency of international concern by the <keyword id="19896311" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="world-health-organization" source="keywords">World Health Organization</keyword> on 23 July, 2022. Fortunately, case numbers soon plummeted due to a combination of behavioural changes and vaccination in at-risk groups. Modern vaccines and antiviral drugs with activity against mpox were made available in many affected high-income countries. These had been developed and stockpiled in the US and Europe, mostly in preparation for a potential bioweapon attack using a poxvirus. The global outbreak in 2022 was caused by clade II of MPXV, which is endemic in west Africa and not as virulent as clade I MPXV, which so far has only been seen in the Congo Basin. That first mpox public health emergency of international concern was declared over in May 2023. Clade II MPXV infections are still occurring globally, but the worst seems over - for now. Complacency would be misguided, as illustrated by the current mpox outbreak that is gathering steam. <h2>Upsurge in Africa</h2>The African region is experiencing an upsurge in mpox cases, which started in 2023. As the continent which includes the areas where mpox has been endemic for a long time, Africa now presents a complex mosaic. The current clade I MPXV (formerly called Congo Basin strain) is more virulent than the clade II (west African) strain, resulting in a higher case fatality rate. The ongoing outbreak has its epicentre in South Kivu province, eastern DRC, and has the potential to fuel a large pandemic. It has a distinct epidemiological pattern with sustained chains of human-to-human transmission, often via the sexual route. It may have increased transmissibility (we don't know yet). The virus which causes it is the newly defined clade Ib lineage. It displays mutations that are the hallmark of human-to-human spread that is estimated to have been happening since September 2023. Case numbers are rising rapidly, even though many suspected cases are likely not tested and thus not counted as confirmed. Complicating matters, a commonly used test was found to miss infections with this lineage of the virus. It affects mostly adults. The case fatality rate is higher than it was in the 2022 global outbreak. Already, this outbreak has resulted in mpox cases occurring in several neighbouring countries, including some (like Kenya), with no previous record of mpox. The challenge is enormous. The eastern DRC is an area beset by multiple problems. This includes natural disasters, violence and infectious diseases including measles, cholera and poliomyelitis for the DRC. In recent years the second-largest Ebola outbreak ever took place in the wider area and, despite the availability of vaccines and treatments, posed considerable challenges. <h2>What needs to happen</h2>Equitable access to diagnostic tests, vaccines and antiviral treatments requires political commitment and financial investments. Scientific investigations are needed to learn more about exposure settings, transmission routes and clinical presentations. It's important to find the best ways to make these interventions. There is no doubt that a disease in one corner of the world can suddenly become a global heath threat. It's time the global health system woke up to this reality.

Mpox outbreak in Africa was neglected - it could now turn into the next global pandemic

<ul class="summary-list"><li>The foreign exchange market remains quiet despite global geopolitical and economic shifts.</li><li>The yen carry trade unwind in August led to a temporary market pullback and recovery.</li></ul>The foreign exchange market has been eerily quiet since the yen <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/currency-markets-could-reshuffle-unexpectedly-fx-forex-trades-global-economy-2024-8">carry trade</a> unwind.The realized volatility in most currency pairings is incredibly low. But if you look at the backdrop of what's happening around the world, including geopolitical instability, interest-rate changes, and <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/9-elections-to-watch-2024-the-biggest-election-year-history-2024-1">election uncertainty</a>, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/yen-carry-trade-next-unwind-forex-market-currencies-trading-fx-2024-8">FX should be going crazy</a> at this stage, says David Barrett, the CEO of EBC Financial Group, a multi-asset broker.The <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/personal-finance/investing/what-is-forex">foreign exchange market</a> has three major participants, and none of them is making big moves now, he noted. The first is on the surface layer, where short-term traders are betting on currency shifts and yields, which have taken over more volume than historically. On the second layer, you have more speculative traders, mostly made up of hedge funds and trading firms. And on the third layer, you have bigger money, where the pension funds and government allocators sit.Short-term traders generally don't affect market direction as steeply. They are in-and-out traders. Much of the moves from the yen carry unwinding witnessed in August happened at this layer, Barrett said. The hedge funds or larger market makers tend to respond to flows that are coming through, making them neutrally positioned based on those flows.The last group, where the big money pension funds sit, trades foreign exchange for two main reasons: one, they allocate non-denominated currencies for their investments. Two, they hedge their currency exposure to remain neutral. They mainly readjust that hedge when currency rates move. And because we have not seen a huge amount of volatility in most pairs, they have been very quiet, he said.But the yen could once again shake up an otherwise boring currency market and more.In August, the US stock market saw a swift pullback (and recovery) after the Bank of Japan raised rates. Japan's near-zero <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/market-crash-japan-central-bank-boj-cools-interest-rate-hike-2024-8">interest rates </a>had made the yen a funding currency that was borrowed cheaply to invest in other assets where rates were higher — the so-called carry trade. When rates rose and the currency strengthened, the trade unwound.But what we've seen in the yen carry trade is only the beginning, Barrett said. We have flushed out the short-term positions. However, any significant move in the dollar, such as weakness due to interest rate cuts against a strengthening yen, would unravel deeper positions where pension funds sit.The big talking point in that trade is the Japanese pension fund, Barrett said. It has extensive exposure outside of Japan, and a strengthening yen is very problematic for it. Japan has the world's largest government pension fund with $1.6 trillion in assets, and a large amount of that is invested outside the country. The pension invests in foreign stocks, foreign bonds, and foreign commodities."Now, you may not think that's a yen carry trade, but it's absolutely the purest yen carry trade because all of that pension fund money started off as yen," Barrett said. "It's been sold, and it's been put into other investments abroad."The shift away from foreign asset interest has already begun. So far this year, Japanese investors bought $192 billion in Japanese government government bonds, the most in at least 14 years, according to<a target="_blank" href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-10-01/japan-s-4-trillion-carry-trade-begins-to-slowly-unwind"> Bloomberg</a>. Meanwhile, they cut their foreign bond purchases by almost half, the article noted.It's hard to pinpoint an exact tipping point at which things could further unravel, Barrett noted, because positions are built on many layers. For example, hedge funds that are on the second layer that sold yen for the dollar and took positions in Big Tech, like Nvidia, are still in the money in terms of gains. Therefore, these positions may not need further shifts before they move, he noted.What's the impact of US elections on foreign exchange trades? There isn't one, he noted. This is because the race is too tight to predict an outcome at this point."So, what you tend to see at the moment is people that have existing risk that are wargaming for what happens if you get a Harris presidential victory or a Trump one," David said.The Harris trade is easier to maneuver because it's expected to be less volatile. There's a good chance that the same policies will remain in place over the first six to 12 months of her presidency. The market won't have many new adjustments to make, he noted.The potential volatility comes from the Trump trade due to tariff hikes, a fiscal boost, higher yields, and probably a stronger dollar that will benefit some sectors more than others, he noted."The trades that are being put on at the moment are probably more likely to be the longer-term guys that have ingrained exposure in their portfolio, and they're putting on some kind of hedge," Barrett said. "So most people that I talk to in the interbank market are telling me that the options market is busier than the spot market. The options market is something that gives people optionality to react rather than having to be heavily positioned."Since the market has generally been long the dollar due to higher rates, most of the options trades would be hedging against a dropping dollar by buying puts, which increase in value if the dollar declines, or doing straddles or strangles, which is when you buy calls and puts at the same or different strike prices. And because volatility in the price of FX optionality is still low, hedges are relatively cheap, he added.

As forex markets await political shocks, one tipping point could lead to a 'catastrophic trade' that unwinds markets 

<ul class="summary-list"><li>The US economy looks strong, judging by GDP growth, profits, productivity, and the labor market.</li><li>JPMorgan Asset Management is upbeat heading into 2025, but a major risk looms.</li></ul>It looks like the most obvious threats to the economy have been neutralized for now, but a veteran strategy chief fears that an under-the-radar risk poses a threat to the global expansion.This economic backdrop bears little resemblance to the <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-economy-stagflation-disaster-high-prices-inflation-high-unemployment-2022-3">so-called stagflationary environment</a> of 2022, a year where <a target="_blank" href="https://www.statista.com/statistics/188185/percent-change-from-preceding-period-in-real-gdp-in-the-us/">US GDP shrank in the first two quarters</a> as <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/inflation-cpi-price-growth-june-2022-7">inflation hit multi-decade highs</a>.Fast forward to late 2024, and GDP has grown by at least 3% for <a target="_blank" href="https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product">three of the last four quarters</a> and is expected to do so again in the third quarter, according to JPMorgan Asset Management. The firm estimates that consumer spending, which <a target="_blank" href="https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DPCERE1Q156NBEA">accounts for about two thirds of US GDP</a>, also likely accelerated to 3.5% on an inflation-adjusted basis last quarter, up from 2.8% in Q2.Meanwhile, price growth is <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/inflation-september-cpi-consumer-price-index-federal-reserve-interest-rates-2024-10">remarkably close to the Federal Reserve's 2% target</a>, which allowed the US central bank to <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/fed-cuts-interest-rates-how-much-september-fomc-powell-inflation-2024-9">start the interest rate easing cycle with a bang</a> in mid-September.Perhaps most encouraging is that the labor market appears to be healthy. <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/september-jobs-report-unemployment-rate-nonfarm-payroll-growth-federal-reserve-2024-10">Job additions easily exceeded estimates</a> in September, and the unemployment rate is <a target="_blank" href="https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/empsit.pdf">in check at 4.1%</a>.Corporate earnings growth, productivity growth, and business fixed investment all seem to be headed in the right direction as well. The same is true of wage growth, which JPMAM found has topped inflation for the last 17 months, underpinning solid consumer spending in the process.These signals have given David Kelly, JPMAM's chief global market strategist, great confidence.The economic outlook "seems remarkably benign with solid economic growth, low unemployment, resilient profits, a slow drift down in inflation, and gradual easing from the Federal Reserve," Kelly said in written commentary on October 28. The market veteran added that there aren't "signs of an imminent change in the economy's path."<h2 id="59ff7859-06ea-46e1-a918-af568c5cb476">A 'tariff'ying risk</h2>That seemingly picturesque backdrop helps explain why the S&amp;P 500 has risen 22% this year and is near record highs. But Kelly believes investors can't let their guards down."Investing has always been as much about risk as about return, and the key to long-term success is being prepared for both," Kelly said in his commentary.Kelly said to be wary of elevated stock valuations — which he and his colleagues at JPMAM <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/investing-strategy-real-estate-stocks-bonds-portfolio-jpmorgan-asset-management-2024-10">said last week</a> could put a lid on future returns — and the market's heavy tilt toward mega-cap growth companies, even though <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/cheap-stocks-to-buy-strong-growth-market-outlook-garp-bmo-2024-10">that has been changing</a> in recent months.However, neither of those overhangs is more serious than the potential fallout from a domestic or international political shock. When asked last week about the biggest risk to his long-term outlook, Kelly quickly arrived at an answer: a fierce global trade war marked by escalating tariffs."No matter which set of economists you have sitting here, every one of 'em will tell you that tariffs are not a good idea," Kelly said at JPMAM's <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/investing-strategy-real-estate-stocks-bonds-portfolio-jpmorgan-asset-management-2024-10">annual long-term capital market assumptions conference</a> on October 21. "You can use it as a threat, though it's kind of like a nuclear threat — the whole point is, if you actually end up using it, you kind of screwed up somewhere."Economists usually disapprove of tariffs, which are taxes on foreign imports, in most cases. Tariffs promise to generate revenue for the home country while aiding domestic industries, but they can drive up consumer prices and prompt counter-tariffs that lead to trade wars.In a worst-case scenario, tariffs would result in higher prices and lower growth due to the waste and inefficiency that they create while hurting importers and exporters in both countries."A trade war could cause us to push up our inflation forecast and push out our growth forecast at the same time," Kelly said at the conference.While Democrats and Republican presidents have leaned on tariffs in the past, it's former President Donald Trump who's <a target="_blank" href="https://thehill.com/business/4945577-trump-tariffs-economy-trade/">promising to implement substantial tariffs</a> in this election cycle.While some say the threat of aggressive tariffs would help the US secure better trade terms, others are skeptical — if not outright scared.Such tariffs <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/election-trump-harris-economy-inflation-stock-market-volatility-risk-orlik-2024-10">would cause "seismic shocks to the US economy,"</a> Tom Orlik, the chief economist at Bloomberg Economics, said earlier this month. Charles Schwab global investment strategy chief Jeffrey Kleintop <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/how-to-invest-stock-market-international-investing-strategy-charles-schwab-2024-6">cited tariffs as a top risk</a> back in June. The nonpartisan Peterson Institute <a target="_blank" href="https://www.piie.com/blogs/realtime-economics/2024/trumps-proposed-blanket-tariffs-would-risk-global-trade-war">spoke out against Trump's tariff proposals</a>, as did the right-leaning <a target="_blank" href="https://www.wsj.com/opinion/donald-trump-tariffs-economy-2024-election-kamala-harris-robert-lighthizer-29c07e94">Wall Street Journal editorial board</a>.Although investors may want to take the possibility of tariffs more seriously, Kelly noted that even if they're a major headache, stocks and the economy should still be fine in the long term."I could have said 'pandemic' five years ago, if I'd been incredibly prescient," Kelly said at the conference. "But oddly enough, the global economy bounced back anyway. And so it wouldn't actually have been a very good thing to worry about."

The economy seems to be firing on all cylinders — but a veteran JPMorgan strategy chief says one underappreciated risk could cause a serious global slowdown

You Searched For "global politics" and got 10 results

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You Searched For "global politics" and got 10 results

Political assassinations are on the rise. It's a symptom of growing global instability.

Tom Porter

Indian markets under pressure as global rate cuts stir uncertainty, new report says

BI India Bureau

How Trump could exploit a looming global struggle for rare-earth minerals

Tom Porter

Some Democratic political advertisers are still betting on X, despite Elon Musk's allegiance with Donald Trump

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Global government borrowing is set to top $100 trillion — and shows no signs of slowing down

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Mass X-odus: What are the controversial changes on X that are driving users away?

BI India Bureau

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PTI

Mpox outbreak in Africa was neglected - it could now turn into the next global pandemic

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As forex markets await political shocks, one tipping point could lead to a 'catastrophic trade' that unwinds markets

Laila Maidan

The economy seems to be firing on all cylinders — but a veteran JPMorgan strategy chief says one underappreciated risk could cause a serious global slowdown

James Faris

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