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<ul class="summary-list"><li>European stocks are pricing in a Trump win, Barclays said.</li><li>Exporters have underperformed the broader European market by 15% since spring.</li></ul>With the US election less than two weeks away, European stocks have already been pricing in a Donald Trump victory, according to Barclays.The firm noted that a basket of European exporters — or those companies most vulnerable to tariffs — has underperformed the benchmark European Stoxx 600 by 15% since early spring.Barclays says this is reflective of investors preemptively bracing for Trump's tariff policy, which has been a cornerstone of his presidential-election platform, under the expectation he will win.<div type="image" title="Barclays chart showing how stocks exposed to tariffs have underperformed the broader index" height="1670" width="2136" msid="114514786" hostid="261" sizebytes="87238"></div>"Tariff concerns have been a drag on EU equities' relative performance year-to-date," Barclays analysts led by Emmanuel Cau wrote on Wednesday. "In the event of a full-blown trade war, we could see up to a high single-digit drag on EPS growth with Germany, Italy, Cap Goods, Autos, Beverages, Tech, Chemicals most at risk."Barclays did note that some European firms have relocated production to the US since 2018, which could somewhat limit the impact of Trump's trade policy on the whole market. But it's still worried about the possible side effects."The second-order impact through lower growth and higher inflation (i.e. stagflation) could be more severe, in particular in the case of retaliation and a trade war," Barclays wrote.The US will also feel the impact. The firm forecasts Trump tariffs will be a 3.2% drag on S&amp;P 500 earnings-per-share next year, with the most negative impact affecting materials, discretionary, industrials, technology, and healthcare. Beyond that, retaliatory measures would generate an additional 1.5% hit to forward EPS.The note suggested a possible rebound for Europe's markets if Kamala Harris wins. Her policy would also boost clean and renewables in the region, which have also underperformed on the chances of a Trump win.

One global market is already pricing in a Trump victory

<ul class="summary-list"><li>The dollar has gained since Trump's election and his policies could boost the greenback further. </li><li>A stronger dollar could suppress global trade and complicate inflation abroad, a think tank researcher said.</li></ul>Donald Trump's proposed policies are likely to give the US dollar a boost during his second term, but a stronger US currency has the potential to unleash chaos in global markets, according to one think tank researcher. Michael Klein, a senior research fellow at Chatham House, an international affairs think tank, wrote this week that the dollar will likely rise under Trump, despite Trump's own suggestion that he would like <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-dollar-trump-presidential-election-weaker-usd-policy-intervention-trillions-2024-7">to see a weaker dollar</a> to slim the US trade deficit.That's unlikely to happen, Klein said, largely because the greenback's other currency rivals remain challenged and because Trump's policies are bullish for the dollar. "President-elect Donald Trump has a dollar problem. In recent months he has shown a clear preference for a weaker exchange rate to support the competitiveness of US exports and help reduce the US trade deficit. And yet, as the market has sensed since the US election, the much more likely outcome is that his policies end up strengthening the greenback. The risk is that the US dollar— which is expensive already — becomes more obviously overvalued, and this could increase the risk of global financial stability," Klein wrote.Klein said a <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/strong-us-dollar-exchange-rate-companies-investors-inflation-interest-rates2022-7">stronger dollar</a> could be bad news for other economies around the world. Given how widely the greenback is used across financial markets, global trade could be suppressed if the dollar gains in value.Countries that find their currency devalued against the dollar, meanwhile, could have a harder time taming inflation."If and when the dollar becomes unsustainably expensive, a further problem will present itself: how to deal with an overvalued currency without risking a lot of financial dislocation," Klein said. "Without much scope for a negotiated decline in the dollar, more chaotic alternatives seem likely."Markets have already picked up on the likelihood of a stronger US currency under Trump's presidency. The <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/us-dollar-index">US Dollar Index</a>, which weighs the greenback against a basket of currencies, has climbed around 3% over the last month and briefly surpassed 107 on Thursday, its highest level in a year.Several of Trump's policies are supportive of a stronger US currency. Klein pointed to Trump's plans for steep tariffs, which include a 10% blanket tariff on most US imports and a 60% tariff on Chinese imports.The US imposing tariffs on another country also tends to devalue the other country's currency, Klein added, due to traders selling the currency on foreign exchange markets. Such was the case in 2018, when Trump's trade restrictions on China led the yuan to depreciate 10% against the dollar that year, Fed data shows."More widespread tariffs on a whole range of US trading partners should therefore strengthen the dollar more broadly," Klein added.Economists have also said <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-tariffs-higher-inflation-fed-interest-rates-taxes-mortgage-rates-2024-11">Trump's tariff plan</a> could stoke higher <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/donald-trump-election-win-high-inflation-risk-tariffs-deportations-taxes-2024-11">inflation</a> and higher interest rates, which would prop up the greenback. Trump's other policies, like his plan to <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-tax-plan-tarriffs-benefits-top-earners-study-2024-10">cut taxes</a>, could also add to price pressures, Klein said."Since boosting the US economy will create inflationary pressure, the market will expect interest rates to end up higher than they might otherwise be. The resulting combination of looser fiscal and tighter monetary policy tends to lead to a stronger currency," Klein said.Trump has pushed back on the idea that his policies could stoke higher prices, and maintained that he will push inflation lower during his presidency. He brought tariffs on some imports from China during his first term without a significant inflation increase, but economists say his tariff plan this time around is more wide-reaching, with a higher likelihood prices rise as a result.

Why a strengthening US dollar could spark instability in global markets in Trump's 2nd term

<ul class="summary-list"><li>The yen carry trade unwind remains a risk to the US stock market, Ed Yardeni said.</li><li>Hawisk comments from Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda spurred fresh volatility last week, he said.</li></ul>The carry trade unwind that <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-crash-yen-carry-trade-unwind-fed-japan-rates-2024-8?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">rocked markets</a> last month remains a threat, Ed Yardeni wrote in a note on Sunday. To the market veteran, last week's 4.3% slump in the <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/s&amp;p_500?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">S&amp;P 500</a> doesn't make much sense when the Federal Reserve is ready to ease monetary policy. Instead, another factor is likely at play. "Why are stock prices falling when the Fed is set to lower interest rates to avert a recession and to stop the unemployment rate from rising by boosting economic growth? We had a glimpse of the answer in early August: The carry trade is still unwinding," Yardeni wrote.The popular trade has seen investors borrow cheaply in the Japanese yen over recent years, taking advantage of the country's ultra-low interest rates. These funds were then redeployed into higher-yielding assets, especially US tech stocks, Yardeni said.But the carry trade buckles when Japan tightens rates, as it did in August. A surprise 15 basis point hike forced traders to sell assets to cover margin calls, contributing to a dramatic US stock <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-crash-picks-up-recession-fears-carry-trade-unwind-2024-8">plunge on August 5th</a>.Although the market has since recouped its losses, benchmark indexes tumbled once again in the first week of September, wit the S&amp;P 500 notching its largest weekly decline since the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank in March 2023.Blame has chiefly fallen on last week's jobs report, as labor weakness has triggered recessionary fears. But while Friday's data release was weaker than hoped, the headline number only slightly missed estimates and the unemployment rate ticked down. In Yardeni's view, the reaction to the data is a passing growth scare."Our assessment of Friday's employment report is that it wasn't as bad as widely believed. Furthermore, some of the apparent weakness in employment suggests that productivity growth may continue to surprise to the upside," Yardeni said in a separate note.In this context, another factor contributed to the most recent sell-off, Yarden said: hawkish interest rate comments from Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda.On Tuesday, the governor confirmed that interest rates will keep rising in Japan if the country's economy and prices remain in line with the bank's expectations, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-09-03/boj-ueda-reiterates-stance-of-lifting-rates-if-outlook-realized">Bloomberg</a> said. That day, the yen strengthened against the US dollar."Japan's short-term rates are still very low. If the economy is in healthy condition, they will move up to levels we consider neutral," Ueda also said two weeks ago, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.ft.com/content/b168bb8d-227d-479a-81a4-93d07d6bf4f1">during a parliamentary hearing</a>.Immediately after August's carry trade sell-off, JPMorgan similarly warned investors that the <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-crash-carry-trade-yen-boj-interest-rates-selloff-2024-8">unwinding is only half done</a>.

The global carry trade that crushed markets last month is still a risk, market veteran says

<ul><li>The global foldable smartphone shipments have declined by 1% in Q3 2024.</li><li>Samsung has emerged as the top company in foldable smartphone shipments in Q3 2024.</li><li>Samsung continues to account for over half of the market share, despite a huge decline in shipments.</li></ul>The global foldable smartphone shipments declined for the first time in Q1 2024, recording a 1% year-on-year decline. This marks the first decline for foldable smartphones in Q3. According to a report by Counterpoint Research, one of the factors for the decline in shipments was Samsung’s<a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/tech/mobile/news/samsung-galaxy-z-fold-6-review/articleshow/112497472.cms"> Galaxy Z Fold 6</a> and<a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/tech/mobile/news/samsung-galaxy-z-fold-6-galaxy-z-flip-6-galaxy-ring-and-more-launched/articleshow/111637913.cms"> Galaxy Z Flip 6</a> smartphones not performing as expected. <div type="Article" hostid="261" msid="112497472" title="Samsung Galaxy Z Fold 6 review – the complete package" mstype="2" mssubtype="0"></div> “The global foldable market appears to have entered a transitionary phase where it is facing challenges as it progresses from a niche segment to the mainstream. User satisfaction is particularly high with book-type foldable devices, but the prohibitively high prices remain the biggest obstacle to mass adoption,” said Jene Park, Senior Analyst, Counterpoint Research. <h2>Global foldable smartphone market share</h2> <table style="border-width: initial; border-style: none;"></colgroup><tbody><tr><td style="border-left:solid #000000 0.5008695000000001pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 0.5008695000000001pt;border-top:solid #000000 0.5008695000000001pt;vertical-align:bottom;background-color:#000000;padding:0pt 5pt 0pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">Company </td><td style="border-right:solid #000000 0.5008695000000001pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 0.5008695000000001pt;border-top:solid #000000 0.5008695000000001pt;vertical-align:bottom;background-color:#000000;padding:0pt 5pt 0pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">Q3 2024 </td></tr><tr><td style="border-left:solid #000000 0.5008695000000001pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 0.5008695000000001pt;border-top:solid #000000 0.5008695000000001pt;vertical-align:bottom;background-color:#d9d9d9;padding:0pt 5pt 0pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">Samsung </td><td style="border-right:solid #000000 0.5008695000000001pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 0.5008695000000001pt;border-top:solid #000000 0.5008695000000001pt;vertical-align:bottom;background-color:#d9d9d9;padding:0pt 5pt 0pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">56% </td></tr><tr><td style="border-left:solid #000000 0.5008695000000001pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 0.5008695000000001pt;border-top:solid #000000 0.5008695000000001pt;vertical-align:bottom;padding:0pt 5pt 0pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">Huawei </td><td style="border-right:solid #000000 0.5008695000000001pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 0.5008695000000001pt;border-top:solid #000000 0.5008695000000001pt;vertical-align:bottom;padding:0pt 5pt 0pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">15% </td></tr><tr><td style="border-left:solid #000000 0.5008695000000001pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 0.5008695000000001pt;border-top:solid #000000 0.5008695000000001pt;vertical-align:bottom;background-color:#d9d9d9;padding:0pt 5pt 0pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">Honor </td><td style="border-right:solid #000000 0.5008695000000001pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 0.5008695000000001pt;border-top:solid #000000 0.5008695000000001pt;vertical-align:bottom;background-color:#d9d9d9;padding:0pt 5pt 0pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">10% </td></tr><tr><td style="border-left:solid #000000 0.5008695000000001pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 0.5008695000000001pt;border-top:solid #000000 0.5008695000000001pt;vertical-align:bottom;padding:0pt 5pt 0pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">Motorola </td><td style="border-right:solid #000000 0.5008695000000001pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 0.5008695000000001pt;border-top:solid #000000 0.5008695000000001pt;vertical-align:bottom;padding:0pt 5pt 0pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">7% </td></tr><tr><td style="border-left:solid #000000 0.5008695000000001pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 0.5008695000000001pt;border-top:solid #000000 0.5008695000000001pt;vertical-align:bottom;background-color:#d9d9d9;padding:0pt 5pt 0pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">Xiaomi </td><td style="border-right:solid #000000 0.5008695000000001pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 0.5008695000000001pt;border-top:solid #000000 0.5008695000000001pt;vertical-align:bottom;background-color:#d9d9d9;padding:0pt 5pt 0pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">6% </td></tr></tbody></table> Source: Counterpoint Research Samsung has emerged as the market leader in Q3 2024, with a market share of 56%, down from 70% in Q3 2023. While the company’s Galaxy Z Fold 6 performed decently, the Galaxy Z Flip 6 failed to match its predecessor’s sales. The company recorded a 21% year-on-year decline in shipments. Huawei has emerged second, with a 15% market share in Q3 2024, up from a 13% market share in Q3 2023. The company recorded a 23% year-on-year growth in shipments. Honor and Motorola take the third and fourth spots, with a 10% and a 7% market share respectively. Both companies have recorded good growth. While Honor has recorded a 121% year-on-year growth, Motorola has recorded a 164% year-on-year growth. Xiaomi is in the fifth position, with a 6% market share. The company recorded the highest year-on-year growth at 185%. This growth was driven by the Mix Flip, the company’s first clamshell smartphone. SEE ALSO: <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/business/auto/news/honda-activa-e-and-qc1-electric-scooters-unveiled-in-india-to-go-on-sale-in-2025/articleshow/115725242.cms">Honda Activa e and QC1 electric scooters unveiled in India, to go on sale in 2025</a> <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/tech/news/indias-pc-market-reaches-new-high-with-4-49-million-shipments-in-q3-2024/articleshow/115719599.cms">India’s PC market reaches new high with 4.49 million shipments in Q3 2024</a> <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/tech/mobile/news/realme-gt-7-pro-with-snapdragon-8-elite-chipset-launched-starting-at-59999/articleshow/115689685.cms">Realme GT 7 Pro with Snapdragon 8 Elite chipset launched starting at ₹59,999</a>

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One global market is already pricing in a Trump victory

Filip De Mott

Why a strengthening US dollar could spark instability in global markets in Trump's 2nd term

Jennifer Sor

The global carry trade that crushed markets last month is still a risk, market veteran says

Filip De Mott

Global foldable phone shipments decline in Q3 2024, Samsung leads with 56% market share

Sourabh Jain

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