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<ul class="summary-list"><li>Goldman Sachs analysts upgraded their growth forecast for China from 4.7% to 4.9% for this year.</li><li>Recent comments from officials suggest a higher debt ceiling and more construction starts by the end of the year.</li></ul>China may not fall too short of its growth targets this year after all, Goldman Sachs analysts said. The analysts upgraded their 2024 forecast for China's GDP from 4.7% to 4.9% after officials in Beijing pledged a new round of stimulus measures. That's just shy of Beijing's goal of 5% economic growth. "The latest round of China stimulus clearly indicates that policymakers have made a turn on cyclical policy management and increased their focus on the economy," the analysts said in a Sunday note.They said their upgrade was largely based on promises of greater public spending from the Ministry of Finance at a highly-anticipated press conference on Saturday.Officials said that 2.3 trillion yuan ($15.4 billion) of local government special bond funds will be used in the fourth quarter of this year, suggesting a higher government debt ceiling, or "the largest in recent years."The analysts said that the announcement indicates "a more back-loaded fiscal impulse and a larger rebound in growth from Q3 to Q4 than we previously anticipated."The analysts from Goldman also pointed to fuel for near-term construction starts.Last week, China's top economic planning agency, the National Development and Reform Commission, said it would pre-approve 200 billion Chinese yuan ($28.2 billion) of next year's projects by the end of October, presumably to begin construction before the end of the year.They said that effort could help the country's GDP growth get closer to the "around 5%" target for 2024, which <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-growth-targets-axa-investment-property-sector-industrial-production-2024-9">looked increasingly unlikely</a> for most of this year. The analysts also upgraded their growth forecast for next year, from 4.3% to 4.7%. They say that while China's struggling property market will continue to weigh on the economy and as export volume slows from its massive growth this year, the step-up in the latest stimulus is still more policy easing than they had originally accounted for.The analysts add that while they upgraded forecasts for the near term, they still see major structural headwinds <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-economy-growth-stimulus-demand-emerging-markets-world-bank-2024-10#:~:text=China's%20officials%20previously%20said%20the,goal%20is%20out%20of%20reach.">in the long-term</a>."While we have upgraded our cyclical view on the back of the more forceful and coordinated China stimulus, our structural view on China's growth has not changed," the analysts said."The '3D' challenges - deteriorating demographics, a multi-year debt deleveraging trend, and the global supply chain de-risking push are unlikely to be reversed by the latest round of policy easing," they added.China's recent stimulus pushes have aimed to prop up its weak economy, which has been plagued by a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/chinese-property-stocks-homebuying-restrictions-stimulus-shanghai-gdp-2024-9?_gl=1*l9qswn*_ga*MTY3OTgyNjg0MS4xNzIxMDE2MDM2*_ga_E21CV80ZCZ*MTcyODkxOTI0NC4yNjMuMS4xNzI4OTE5Mzg3LjU1LjAuMA..">struggling property sector</a> and <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/pets-sports-disney-linabell-china-consumer-economy-demand-spending-property-2024-9">weak domestic demand</a>.

Goldman Sachs raises China growth outlook on optimism over Beijing's fresh push to revive struggling economy

The Reserve Bank is unlikely to ease the benchmark policy rate from 6.5% during 2024, given the persisting uncertainty over <keyword id="19999654" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="food-inflation" source="keywords">food inflation</keyword>, State Bank of India (<keyword id="19898108" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="SBI" source="keywords">SBI</keyword>) chairman C S Setty has recently said. The US Federal Reserve's first cut in <keyword id="20071327" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="interest-rate" source="keywords">interest rate</keyword>s in more than four years happened today, triggering central banks in other economies to follow suit. The Fed trimmed the interest rates by 50 basis point trim to its target interest rate range to 4.75-5%. "On the rate front, a lot of central banks are taking independent calls. While Fed rate cut would influence everyone, <keyword id="19899808" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="RBI" source="keywords">RBI</keyword> would be mindful of the food inflation before taking a call on interest rate cut," Setty, who recently took over the reins of the bank, was noted as saying. "Our view is also that the rate cut during the current calendar year may not happen. Probably, we may have to wait for Q4 (January-March 2025) unless there is a good improvement in terms of food inflation," he added. Notably, RBIs <keyword id="19913109" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="Monetary-Policy-Committee" source="keywords">Monetary Policy Committee</keyword> (MPC), headed by RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das is scheduled to meet next month, between October 7-9 and take a call on interest rate. The committee will largely take <keyword id="19999652" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="retail-inflation" source="keywords">retail inflation</keyword>, which inched to 3.65% in August, up from 3.54% in July, into account for making rate-related decisions On the other hand, India's wholesale price index (WPI) eased to 1.31% on an annual basis, which is also a 4-month low, down from 2.04% in July. The data, released recently by the government, also highlighted the stickiness of food price inflation, which stood largely undeterred at 3.11% in August, as compared to 3.45% in July. Although WPI rates do not directly impact RBIs decision making, it does affect the retail inflation rates, although it takes time to reflect the same. Says Rahul Agrawal, Senior Economist at ICRA Ltd, “The <keyword id="20198768" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="WPI-inflation" source="keywords">WPI inflation</keyword> eased to a four-month low in August 2024, with the fuel and power, core (non-food manufacturing), and crude petroleum and natural gas sub-groups together pulling down the headline WPI print by as much as 70 bps in the month vis-à-vis July 2024. The core WPI inflation dipped to 0.7% in August 2024 from 1.2% in July 2024, amidst a continued softening in global commodity prices. "While prices of most food items have eased further on a month-on-month basis in September 2024, an adverse base would push up the YoY inflation prints for the primary food articles category significantly in the ongoing month, exerting upward pressure to the headline WPI inflation print for September 2024", said Agrawal. The price of the Indian basket of crude oil has averaged 6.0% lower in September 2024 on a sequential basis, touching the lowest levels in 33 months, which would also help contain the uptick in the headline WPI inflation print in the month. We anticipate WPI to touch the 2.0% in September 2024 from 1.3% in August 2024", he continued. Amongst the food articles whose prices dipped during the month were cereals (8.44%), paddy (9.12%), pulses (18.57%) and onions (65.75%), it did little to tame inflation, which continued to stay put in double digits. On the other hand, prices of potato (77.96%) and fruits (16.7%) inched up. The dip in WPI was largely led by slowdown in prices of manufactured food products (3.61%), beverages (1.9%), pharmaceuticals (1.97%) and petrol (4.23%). "While there may not be a one-to-one correspondence between the WPI and the CPI data because of the items, size, number, and relative weights assigned, the CPI data will also down-trend in sync with the RBI’s medium-term target of 4 % for the second time in nearly five years. However high food prices will induce the RBI to be wary", notes Manoranjan Sharma, Chief Economist, Infomerics Ratings.

RBI unlikely to cut interest rate in 2024, food inflation to be deciding factor, says SBI chief Setty

Corporate <keyword id="19895063" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="india" source="keywords">India</keyword> reported the strongest <keyword id="6357342" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="hiring" source="Orion">hiring</keyword> sentiments globally for the next three months, with 37 per cent of employers planning to increase their staff strength as businesses are bullish about the country's economic position, a survey said on Tuesday. According to the ManpowerGroup <keyword id="6355127" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="employment" source="Orion">Employment</keyword> <keyword id="20206852" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="outlook" source="keywords">Outlook</keyword> Survey Q4, 2024, of nearly 3,150 employers across sectors and regions, the <keyword id="20449001" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="net-employment-outlook" source="keywords">Net Employment Outlook</keyword> in India is the strongest worldwide at 37 per cent, followed by Costa Rica (36 per cent) and the US (34 per cent) in the second and third place respectively. The Net Employment Outlook (NEO) is calculated by subtracting the percentage of employers who anticipate reductions to staffing levels from those who plan to hire. The India employment outlook for Q4 (October-December) stood at 37 per cent, up 7 per cent from Q3 2024, and unchanged when compared with the same time last year. "The hiring intention of employers signifies the positive outlook in the country's economic position that has been reinforced by exports as a result of multilateral foreign policies and large-scale infrastructure development. Coupled with this, is our demographic advantage that is expected to boost our competitiveness in the global market," said <keyword id="20933727" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="sandeep-gulati" source="keywords">Sandeep Gulati</keyword>, Managing Director, <keyword id="20841782" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="manpowergroup-india" source="keywords">ManpowerGroup India</keyword> and Middle East. According to the survey, employers across all sectors report net positive hiring intentions with the financial and real estate industry having the strongest outlook of 47 per cent, followed by information technology (46 per cent), industrials and materials (36 per cent) and consumer goods and services (35 per cent). The least optimistic prospects were witnessed in the communication services (28 per cent). The survey further noted that the Northern region of India continues to dominate the job demand with an outlook of 41 per cent followed by the West (39 per cent). Gulati further noted that "India is expected to focus on its high domestic consumption, economy-booster government schemes, increasing demand for outsourcing services and manufacturing boom. "With increased focus on skill development to meet market demands, India may be able to reduce unemployment and fasten the pace of economic development by creating a more capable and adaptable workforce that meets the needs of the emerging industries." Hiring managers across the Asia-Pacific countries anticipate the second strongest regional Outlook at 27 per cent, an increase of 4 per cent from the previous quarter but decreased when compared to the same time last year. India, Singapore, and China continue to report the strongest employment outlooks in the region. The most cautious employment outlooks were reported by employers in Hong Kong (8 per cent). Survey responses were collected from July 1-31, 2024, and 40,340 employers across 42 countries were asked about their fourth-quarter hiring intentions.

Indian employers most bullish globally on Oct-Dec quarter hiring: survey

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Nouriel Roubini says stagflation risk will rise if Donald Trump wins the election.</li><li>The famed "Dr. Doom" economist made the remarks at the Greenwich Economic Forum on Wednesday.</li></ul>The US economy might confront a fate more challenging than a recession if Donald Trump retakes the White House, famed economist Nouriel Roubini said."The combination of trade, currency, monetary, fiscal, immigration and foreign policy of Trump poses much higher risks of stagflationary outcomes than if Kamala Harris is elected," he said at the Greenwich Economic Forum on Wednesday, first reported by <a target="_blank" href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-10-09/-dr-doom-nouriel-roubini-warns-of-trump-win-spurring-stagflation-shock">Bloomberg</a>.The famously bearish forecaster is referring to the one scenario central banks hope to avoid at whatever cost. Stagflation occurs when inflation keeps rising but growth slows.There are no painless solutions for an economy that tumbles into this situation.Typically, central banks lower interest rates to revive weaker activity, but this option goes away if prices keep rising. Rates must stay high to reduce inflation, leaving authorities between a rock and a hard place.When stagflation last hit the US in the 1970s, a <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/stagflation-recession-us-economy-outlook-gdp-dimon-inflation-rate-cuts-2024-4">deep recession was required to finally break out</a> of the crisis.According to Roubini, Trump's proposals would fuel these two key ingredients: lower growth and higher inflation.For instance, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-tariff-plan-inflation-policy-impact-trade-war-china-rates-2024-5">scores of economists</a> have criticized the former president's pledge to introduce a 10% universal tariff on all US imports. Not only are duties past down to consumers, but these taxes cause producers to pull out their products. When this happens, supply falls and prices rise.Trump's idea to replace the US income tax with tariffs was similarly called out by former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers, who called it the "<a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-tariff-income-tax-proposal-stagflation-yellen-summers-trade-war-2024-6">mother of all stagflations</a>."When it comes to currency policy, Barclays highlighted that Trump's plans to devalue the US dollar <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/currencies/trump-tariff-trade-barrier-proposals-us-dollar-devaluation-currency-dominance-2024-7">would likewise spark higher inflation</a>.Roubini also expressed concern about Trump's stringent immigration policies. If elected, the Republican candidate has vowed to enforce mass deportations, which threatens one of the economy's major engines of growth, Roubini said.Others have made the same point. In July, JPMorgan's chief global strategist David Kelly called Trump's tariff and immigration policy mix an <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/stagflation-recession-trump-policy-tariff-immigration-deportation-economy-outlook-jpmorgan-2024-7">"elixir for stagflation."</a> Separately, the Peterson Institute think tank warned that removing migrant workers would <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-deportation-immigration-plan-impact-recession-risk-inflation-stagflation-labor-2024-6">trigger a labor supply crunch</a> and a manufacturing-based recession.Roubini said tensions in the Middle East make the threat of stagflation under Trump worse. As conflict escalates between Israel and Iran, rising oil prices increase price pressure. By one estimate, a worst-case scenario in the region could push international crude up to<a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/oil-price-outlook-israel-iran-geopolitics-middle-east-war-crude-2024-10?_gl=1*1dmubht*_ga*MTMxNDIwNDI1Ni4xNjc1Njg3OTU4*_ga_E21CV80ZCZ*MTcyODQ5NTIxOC43MDguMS4xNzI4NDk5OTY5LjYwLjAuMA.."> $200 a barrel</a>.He recommended that investors buy gold, short-term duration bonds, and Treasury inflation-protected securities to hedge against any upcoming risk.To be sure, not all of Roubini's forecasts have panned out. After correctly predicting the 2008 housing crash, his pessimistic outlooks have earned him the moniker of "Dr. Doom."According to Bloomberg, he similarly warned of a stagflationary debt crisis in 2022, citing that it would be worse than the 1970s era.

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Goldman Sachs raises China growth outlook on optimism over Beijing's fresh push to revive struggling economy

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RBI unlikely to cut interest rate in 2024, food inflation to be deciding factor, says SBI chief Setty

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Indian employers most bullish globally on Oct-Dec quarter hiring: survey

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A Trump victory raises the risk of a US economic situation worse than recession, 'Dr. Doom' Nouriel Roubini says

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