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<ul class="summary-list"><li><keyword id="19935006" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="Guyana" source="keywords">Guyana</keyword>, the tiny South American nation, plans to give $500 to every citizen aged 18 and over.</li><li>Its president said the <keyword id="21044249" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="cash-payments" source="keywords">cash payments</keyword> aim to narrow disparities and help with higher living costs.</li></ul>The world's fastest-growing economy is giving the equivalent of $500 to each of its adult citizens as it works to share its newfound oil wealth and soften the sting of higher living costs. President <keyword id="21170274" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Mohamed-Irfaan-Ali" source="keywords">Mohamed Irfaan Ali</keyword> of Guyana, the South American country with just 800,000 people, announced the move last week and said his government would begin distributing the cash immediately. He previously said each household would receive the Guyanese-dollar equivalent of $1,000, but switched to an individual payment after locals raised concerns about how a household would be defined and how the money would be shared within each home. "This is how we are promoting prosperity, ownership, distribution of wealth," Ali said. "This is how the resources and revenue of this country are being spent every single day to lift the lives of people, to expand national wealth, coastal wealth, and community wealth." Guyanese authorities have taken other steps to combat the rising cost of living, the post noted. They've removed more than 200 taxes and fees, including the excise tax on fuel and VAT on water, electricity, and some basic foods. They also gave a one-time, tax-free grant worth about $120 a person to a group that included teachers and public servants last year. Nicolas Suarez, a senior economist at S&amp;P Global Market Intelligence who covers Latin America, told Business Insider the original plan would "increase the average household's disposable income, alleviating some budget constraints." He estimated the initial program's scale at 1.5% of national GDP and 7.9% of Guyana's Natural Resource Fund, which officials set up in 2019 to prudently manage the country's oil revenues. The scale of the updated plan is less clear. World Health Organization data suggests there are about 711,000 Guyanese aged 15 and over, so if we assume the 18+ population is 660,000 people and all of them receive $500 each, the program could cost $330 million —not far off the government's estimate of $290 million for the original household payout. "In the short term, this measure could boost private consumption growth, but it may not ease <keyword id="19895000" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="inflation" source="keywords">inflation</keyword>ary pressures," Suarez said about the previous plan. "On the contrary, higher government expenditures could lead to significant inflationary pressures over the next 12 months." He noted that inflation in Guyana has climbed from a pre-pandemic average of 2.3% a year to 3.3% in August. He noted that <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/personal-finance/investing/what-is-inflation">inflation</a> in Guyana has climbed from a pre-pandemic average of 2.3% a year to 3.3% in August. <h2>Riding an oil wave</h2>Guyana, an English-speaking former colony that gained independence from Britain in 1966, borders Venezuela to the west, Brazil to the south, and Suriname to the east. Its natural resource fund is similar to <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/norway-sovereign-wealth-fund-to-dump-russian-assets-ukraine-invasion-2022-2">Norway's oil fund</a>, set up in the 1990s to invest profits from the Scandinavian nation's oil-and-gas sector, protect the economy from fluctuations in energy revenues, and serve as a financial reserve and long-term savings plan for Norwegians. Norway's gas-powered sovereign wealth fund has helped to make it one of the world's wealthiest countries with an estimated population of 5.5 million and a GDP per capita of about $88,000 last year, according to World Bank data. Its oil fund held over $1.7 trillion of assets at the end of June, or more than $300,000 per Norwegian citizen. <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/warren-buffett-chevron-hess-guyana-oil-economy-berkshire-hathaway-stock-2023-10">Exxon</a>, which has discovered an estimated <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/oil-market-outlook-opec-price-cuts-us-crude-production-guyana-2023-12">11 billion barrels of oil equivalent</a> off Guyana's coastsince 2015, forecasts the country will produce about 1.3 million barrels a day once the company's six projects are online in 2027. That amount rivals Qatar's current output and would rank Guyana among the world's 20 largest oil producers. Guyana ramped up production to more than 600,000 barrels a day earlier this year, fueling roughly 50% <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/oil-market-guyana-economy-crude-production-outlook-opec-price-cuts-2023-12">GDP growth</a> in the first half and putting Guyana on track to grow about 43% this year, Ali said in an August webcast. Real GDP soared by about 62% in 2022 then 33% in 2023, while GDP per capita has surged from $7,000 in 2020 to around $26,000 this year, International Monetary Fund data shows. <h2>Sharing the wealth</h2>Guyana's payment to its people "sounds like great news," Karl Widerquist, a philosophy professor at Georgetown University-Qatar and the author of several books about universal basic income (UBI) told BI. He described the one-time distribution as "basic capital" or a "stakeholder grant" instead of a basic income, but said "it's a big step in that direction if they go through with it." UBI typically refers to a recurring cash payment made to every individual in a society regardless of their wealth, with no restrictions on <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/how-people-spend-universal-basic-income-ubi-food-housing-transportation-2024-4">how the money is spent</a> and no requirement to pay it back. Proponents hail it as a safety net against poverty that relieves financial strain and frees people to change jobs, start businesses, and weather periods of bad luck without stressing about paying their bills. Guyana's one-off, unconditional cash grant is a "positive step," Cleo Goodman, the basic income lead at the Autonomy Institute think tank, told BI. "This is a welcome injection of cash for citizens." However, she noted a guaranteed, regular income would be a "much more comprehensive commitment to redistributing this newfound wealth." Guyana was colonized by the Netherlands before Britain gained control in the late 18th century. The nation, which shares borders with Venezuela, Brazil and Suriname, became independent in 1966. Correction: October 18, 2024 — An earlier version of this story mistakenly reported an outdated version of the policy. Guyana announced Wednesday it had decided to give the equivalent of $500 to every adult, rather than a higher amount to each household as previously planned. The story also misstated the value of the previously announced figure in US dollars. It was $1,000 a household, not $2,000.

This tiny country says it will give $500 to every adult as an Exxon oil boom supercharges its economy

India’s Chief Economic Advisor (CEA), <keyword id="20690607" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="V-Anantha-Nageswaran" source="keywords">V Anantha Nageswaran</keyword>, remains optimistic about the nation’s economic prospects despite a slower-than-expected <keyword id="19972825" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="GDP-growth" source="keywords">GDP growth</keyword> in the second quarter of FY2024-25. Speaking at the Bharat @100 Summit hosted by Assocham, he said that the fundamental health of the economy remains robust, according to a report by aNI. Nageswaran highlighted several indicators demonstrating the economy’s resilience. “If you run through the checklist for the <keyword id="19948184" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="Indian-economy" source="keywords">Indian economy</keyword>, the health is pretty robust,” he noted, pointing to controlled levels of external debt as a share of GDP, declining non-performing assets in the banking system, and stable inflation trends. Although certain food items have caused inflationary spikes, their impact is limited within the overall consumer price index basket, he explained. The CEA praised the shift in fiscal expenditure priorities over the past seven years, with greater focus on capital investments rather than revenue spending. This reallocation, he suggested, has bolstered long-term economic stability and growth potential. India’s GDP growth for the July-September quarter was 5.4%, significantly below the Reserve Bank of India’s forecast of 7%. While this has sparked concerns among economists, Nageswaran urged against overreacting. Erratic monsoons and excessive rainfall disrupted economic activity in Q2, he explained, while global uncertainties and supply chain pressures further weighed on growth. Despite these challenges, he maintained confidence in the broader growth narrative, citing improvements in key economic metrics. For instance, India’s gross capital formation has risen from 27.3% of GDP in the second decade of the 2000s to 30.8% today. Private consumption remains steady, and exports—spanning both services and manufacturing—continue to perform well even amid challenging global conditions. Nageswaran also underscored India’s growing competitiveness in international trade. He noted that the nation’s total <keyword id="24325087" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="exports-as-a-percentage-of-GDP" source="keywords">exports as a percentage of GDP</keyword> now surpass China’s, showcasing its resilience and adaptability in a shifting global trade environment. However, he cautioned against reading too much into quarterly fluctuations, highlighting the impact of geopolitical developments such as trade restrictions from the US on critical minerals and rare earths, as well as policy shifts in China. These external factors, he suggested, are likely to persist and may continue influencing short-term economic trends. (with ANI inputs)

Indian economy is resilient despite Q2 challenges, says CEA Nageswaran

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Russia's economy is staring at "near stagnation," according to Anders Åslund.</li><li>The Swedish economist thinks sanctions are biting into economic growth. </li></ul>Russia's economy is coming closer to a near-stop — and Moscow looks bound to run out of resources to fund its war against Ukraine.That's according to Anders Åslund, a Swedish economist who says Russia's economy is taking a bigger hit from Western sanctions than some believe.While Putin has blown off the impact of Western restrictions, sanctions could be knocking off as much as 3% of Russia's GDP each year, Åslund estimated — the equivalent of $56.4 billion a year, given <a target="_blank" href="https://tass.com/economy/1743227">Russia's current dollar GDP</a> of $1.88 trillion in 2023."Contrary to what the Kremlin would like others to believe, time is not on Russia's side," Åslund wrote in an op-ed for <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/russia-war-economy-weakening-under-sanctions-by-anders-aslund-2024-10">Project Syndicate</a> on Tuesday. "My own view is that the current sanctions regime shaves off 2-3% of GDP each year, condemning Russia to near stagnation. Moreover, the situation will get only worse for Putin, perhaps even impeding this campaign of aggression against Ukraine."Russia's GDP technically grew 3.6% last year, with another <a target="_blank" href="https://www.imf.org/en/Countries/RUS">3.2% real GDP growth expected in 2024</a>, according to estimates from the International Monetary Fund. But economists have noted that much of Russia's growth has been fueled by aggressive government <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-economy-ukraine-war-moscow-military-spending-currency-inflation-budget-2024-9">spending on the war</a>, while longer-term indicators of economic health have soured.<a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-economy-outlook-ukraine-war-worker-shortage-population-brain-drain-2024-8">Labor productivity</a>, for instance, dropped more than 3% last year, thanks partly to an ongoing brain drain in the nation's workforce.Russia's energy business, which supplies a major portion of its total revenue is also struggling. Moscow's <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/russian-energy-revenue-crude-oil-prices-gas-exports-sanctions-ukraine-2024-1">oil and gas revenue dropped</a> by nearly a quarter in 2023, thanks to tumbling oil prices and sanctions targeting the nation's energy trade.Inflation, meanwhile, is roaring. <a target="_blank" href="https://tass.com/economy/1847635">Consumer prices rose 8.5% year-per-year</a> the week of September 17, according to official figures from Russia's Economic Development Ministry. It's likely prices are running even hotter than what those figures suggest, Åslund said, pointing to a long history of Russia understating inflation numbers during the time of the Soviet Union."The only sectors of the Russian economy that are growing are the military and related infrastructure, where state-owned companies sell to the state at (probably inflated) administered prices. The rest of the economy is flat at best," Åslund wrote.Russia is also in a tough spot when it comes to financing the war against Ukraine. The nation has had difficulty borrowing cash from other countries after it was shut out of SWIFT, the global financial communications system, which means that the economy is primarily feeding off tax revenues and reserves.Russia has depleted a large chunk of its National Wealth Fund, which had around <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/russian-national-wealth-fund-rises-1415-bln-june-1-2024-06-05/">$56 billion</a> left in liquid assets at the start of June, according to data from Russia's finance ministry.While Russia has moved to raise <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://tass.com/economy/1816407">personal</a> and <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://tass.com/economy/1816413">corporate taxes</a>, that's unlikely to make a huge difference in the grand scheme of the Kremlin's finances, Åslund said, as there aren't many bond buyers keen to pick up Russia's debt."Including all the hidden costs, Russia will probably spend about $190 billion, or 10% of GDP, on the war this year, and that figure presumably represents the peak, given the constraints imposed by Western financial sanctions," he added, suggesting Russia could only sustain its war efforts for a limited amount of time. "Whenever Russia can no longer finance a budget deficit, it will have to cut public expenditures, and its non-military outlays have already been pared to the bone."Economists have warned that a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-economy-outlook-stagflation-recession-inflation-gdp-growth-ukraine-war-2024-9">dark and uncertain</a> future is looming for Russia, with the mounting costs of the war cannibalizing<a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/currencies/putin-russia-economy-ukraine-war-wagner-mutiny-rebellion-west-sanctions-2023-7"> key parts of its economy</a>. At this point, the Kremlin's war spending is likely the only thing preventing the nation from <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-economy-ukraine-war-moscow-military-spending-currency-inflation-budget-2024-9">slipping into an immediate recession</a>, economists told Business Insider.

Russia's economy faces 'near stagnation' with sanctions whittling down annual GDP growth, European economist says

<ul class="summary-list"><li>BlackRock CEO Larry Fink says the Fed will cut rates just once more this year. </li><li>The market sees two more 25 basis point cuts before the end of the year.</li></ul>The Federal Reserve will disappoint markets by cutting interest rates just one more time in 2024, BlackRock CEO Larry Fink said.Fink said the Fed will likely cut interest rates by 25 basis points before the end of the year amid a rise in global inflation. "I think it's fair to say we're going to have at least a 25, but, that being said, I do believe we have greater embedded inflation in the world than we've ever seen," Fink said during a Tuesday panel in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia.The market sees two more cuts this year, pricing in a 25 basis point cut at the November and December meetings, according to <a target="_blank" href="https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html">CME's FedWatch tool</a>. Investors see slimmer odds of about 30% that the Fed will leave rates unchanged in December. Fink pointed to inflationary policies in the US, which he said are changing the economy's consumer-driven nature."We have a government and policy that is much more inflationary. Immigration — our policies of onshoring, all of this — no one is asking the question 'at what cost,'" he said. "Historically we were, I would say, a more consumer-driven economy, the cheapest products were the best and the most progressive way of politicking."His comments point to the policies aimed at bringing supply chains closer to the US and "re-shoring" domestic manufacturing jobs via spending bills like the Inflation Reduction Act and the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act.Those measures will likely mean inflation sticks around and prompts the Fed to pause its easing cycle, Fink suggested."Today, I think we have governmental policies that are embedded inflationary, and, with that being said, we're not gonna see interest rates as low as people are forecasting."The latest inflation reading for September showed the consumer price index grew 2.4% year over year, down slightly from 2.5% in August, according to data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.After Fink's comments, another panel at the conference reaffirmed his forecast. When asked to raise their hand if they expected the Fed to cut interest rates twice more before the end of the year, the CEOs of Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, State Street, and other Wall Street giants kept their hands down, according to <a target="_blank" href="https://www.cnbc.com/2024/10/29/larry-fink-says-the-fed-wont-cut-interest-rates-as-much-as-markets-expect-this-year.html">CNBC</a>.The central bank kicked off its easing cycle with a <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/interest-rates-today-fed-meeting-cut-stock-market-powell-economy-2024-9?_gl=1*1pio24j*_ga*MTY3OTgyNjg0MS4xNzIxMDE2MDM2*_ga_E21CV80ZCZ*MTcyNjc0OTAzMi4xNTguMS4xNzI2NzQ5MTE3LjYwLjAuMA..">jumbo 50 basis point cut</a> last month. This week <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-outlook-tech-earnings-gdp-inflation-jobs-report-economy-2024-10?_gl=1*mog14z*_ga*MTY3OTgyNjg0MS4xNzIxMDE2MDM2*_ga_E21CV80ZCZ*MTczMDIxMTU3OC4zMzAuMS4xNzMwMjE0ODY0LjUzLjAuMA..">will be important</a> for the Fed's decision-making process, with a slew of data releases scheduled, including personal consumption expenditures, third-quarter GDP, and the October jobs report.

The Fed is likely to disappoint markets with just one more rate cut this year amid global inflation, BlackRock CEO says

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Global government borrowing is set to hit $100 trillion this year, the International Monetary Fund said.</li><li>It pointed to political uncertainty, aversion to tax hikes, and spending pressures as key drivers.</li></ul>Global public debt is on track to surpass $100 trillion this year for the first time — and the increase threatens a wider financial crisis, the International Monetary Fund warned.In a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/FM/Issues/2024/10/23/fiscal-monitor-october-2024">report</a> published Tuesday, IMF researchers said total government borrowing was set to reach 93% of worldwide GDP this year and could hit 100% by 2030, with the US and China driving the increase.Mushrooming public debts "<a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-debt-34-trillion-deficit-government-spending-economy-recession-jpmorgan-2024-1">raise the probability</a> of debt distress or broader financial crisis," the authors noted, adding that the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-national-debt-government-spending-stock-market-financial-crisis-economy-2024-3">interest payments</a> eat into government budgets, reduce spending flexibility and hinder their ability to respond to economic downturns.The IMF also warned of a "severely adverse scenario," in which global debt could balloon to 115% of global GDP by 2026 because of "weaker growth, tighter financing conditions, fiscal slippages, and greater economic and policy uncertainty.""Countries are increasingly vulnerable to global factors affecting their borrowing costs, including spillovers from greater policy uncertainty in systematically important countries, such as the United States," the authors wrote in a blog accompanying the report.The report's authors projected that around two-thirds of countries would stabilize or reduce their debts in the coming years, but added there were "<a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-debt-outlook-56-trillion-cbo-government-budget-deficit-gdp-2024-6">good reasons</a>" future debt could be higher than projected.Those include a broader political embrace of increased government spending, stiffer resistance from lawmakers to higher taxes, and pressure to spend on priorities such as the clean-energy transition, aging populations, and national security.America's national debt has <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-debt-problem-explained-deficit-gdp-inflation-economy-interest-rates-2024-4">more than tripled</a> in under 25 years, ballooning from $10.3 trillion in 2000 to a record $35.7 trillion, according to the US Treasury website.It has grown by more than $7 trillion since 2019, reflecting the US government's <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/federal-reserve-powell-government-spending-national-debt-fiscal-deficit-interest-2024-2">aggressive spending</a> during the COVID-19 pandemic and more recent outlays such as <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-spent-over-22-billion-arming-israel-battling-houthis-2024-10">military support for Israel</a> and Ukraine, which together have cost it <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/how-america-spent-over-100-billion-defending-ukraine-2024-8">well over $100 billion</a>.The debt looks set to grow further with both presidential candidates, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/what-you-need-to-know-about-kamala-harris-opportunity-economy-2024-9">Kamala Harris</a> and <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-tax-plan-tarriffs-benefits-top-earners-study-2024-10">Donald Trump</a>, pledging to spend big if they enter the White House. Harris <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/kamala-harris-economy-proposal-25k-first-time-homebuyers-down-payent-2024-8">proposed</a> offering down-payment assistance for first-time homebuyers, and expanding the child tax credit and capping childcare costs to help young parents. Trump has <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/tax-tips-overtime-trump-proposals-income-money-election-2024-10">suggested eliminating</a> taxes on tips, overtime pay, and Social Security while also extending many of the tax cuts he made as president in 2017.

Global government borrowing is set to top $100 trillion — and shows no signs of slowing down

Economists at the country's largest lender, SBI, today said they see India's Q2 real GDP growth slowing down further to 6.5% in the September quarter of this fiscal year. Amid concerns over the country's economic growth rate and whether it is slowing down, the analysts said they expect FY25 growth to come "closer to" 7%. SBI analysts join a long line of agencies like Fitch, ADB, IMF, Moody, World Bank, S&amp;P, and even RBI in forecasting India's GDP growth for FY25 in the range of 6.8% to 7.2% for FY25, driven by robust consumption and investment. SIP inflows have been at an all-time high, and so has QIP (qualified institutional placement) fundraising. As many as 71 companies raised Rs 88,678 crore this year through QIPs. Activity in Indian primary markets also remained robust, with 78 mainboard IPOs in 2024; this is a 111% rise from just 38 listings in FY23. Between April and June 2024, India's real GDP grew by 6.7%, the lowest growth seen in 15 quarters, pushing experts to believe that India is caught in a cycle of slowdown. "There is some incipient pressure evident on the domestic economy. Based on our analysis of 50 meaningful leading indicators (both consumption and demand-centric), a dip looks plausible across select cohorts of agriculture, industry, and services in Q2," the <keyword id="22337294" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="SBI-economists" source="keywords">SBI economists</keyword> added. Stating that they track 50 indicators to gauge economic activity, SBIs note said the proportion of indicators showing acceleration declined to 69% in Q2 FY25, as against 80% in Q2 FY24 and 78% in Q1 FY25. However, things might be changing now, given that rural demand has started looking up amidst muted urban demand. SBI also explained that the ongoing regulatory tightening on unsecured lending and roadblocks that are hindering rollover/refinancing of debt through unsecured credit are dismantling the unwarranted exuberance that had built up post-pandemic, especially in the urban areas. Madhu Lunawat, CIO &amp; Fund Manager, Bharat Value Fund states that the overall investment environment remains strong due to favorable economic conditions supporting government policies &amp; reforms. "The sustainable inflow from domestic investors is going to support the Indian equity market in any kind of correction. The long-term bullish structure of Indian economy will continue to attract new domestic &amp; global investors to participate in India’s growth story through various Investment avenues.” <h2>Rate cuts not on cards</h2>RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das clarified today that changing the monetary policy stance to 'neutral' does not mean a rate cut is imminent in the central bank's next policy announcement. Notably, RBI MPC is set to meet between December 4 and 6, 2024, to decide if the prevailing repo rate of 6.5%, which has stayed unchanged for the last 2 years, should be brought down or not. In its last meeting, The <keyword id="20501100" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="RBI-monetary-policy" source="keywords">RBI monetary policy</keyword> committee had shifted its stance to 'neutral' indicating that it is open to adjusting interest rates based on economic conditions. "It should not be assumed that we have done this, so therefore the next step is a rate cut. A change in stance doesn't mean that the next step is a rate cut in the very next meeting. It's not so," Das said. Das also cautioned that inflation remains a key factor, and inflation and CPI prints for October are expected to stay high.

SBI economists see Q2 GDP growth slowing down to 6.5%; FY25 growth to be closer to 7%

<ul class="summary-list"><li>The widening conflict in the Middle East threatens to crimp growth and stoke inflation, experts say.</li><li>Hurricane Helene is a big short-term disruption but shouldn't hit quarterly GDP, they say.</li></ul>Experts say the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/israel-not-worried-hezbollah-backlash-iran-counterattack-lebanon-strike-2024-10">escalating war</a> in the Middle East could choke global economic growth and reignite inflation, just as the US is dealing with the aftermath of Hurricane Helene, and China is trying to stabilize its beleaguered economy.<h2 id="864e6676-b886-4b89-9b92-f33c8173a8a6">Shockwaves of war</h2>The regional conflict has expanded, with Israel threatening retaliation against <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/iran-attacks-israel-with-missiles-after-hezbollah-leader-killing-2024-10">Iran for attacking it with missiles in response to the killing of Hamas and Hezbollah leaders</a>.The escalation comes as the global economy is already under pressure from the delayed impact of interest-rate hikes, reduced trade, uncertainty around the upcoming US election, and China's economic slowdown, said Ahmet Kaya, a principal economist at the UK's National Institute of Economic and Social Research."War in the Middle East could exacerbate the instabilities in the global economy, further increase the uncertainties, harm disinflationary efforts, and eventually reduce the global GDP growth," he told Business Insider.Kaya warned the conflict could accelerate inflation by <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/rates-pandemic-lows-inflation-supply-chain-geopolitical-bofa-mensah-2024-10">disrupting international supply chains</a> and causing the cost of energy and shipping to rise. He estimated an increase in oil prices of $10 a barrel could raise inflation in advanced economies by about 0.4 to 0.6 percentage points, and a 10% rise in shipping costs could lift it by about 0.3 percentage points.US crude has already climbed by 10% in just over a week to over $74 a barrel on Friday, its highest level since August, while Brent crude is up almost 9% to above $78.Kaya said resurgent inflation could lead central banks to delay <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/interest-rate-cuts-decision-this-week-federal-reserve-powell-inflation-2024-9">cuts to interest rates</a>, dampening growth at a time when recession fears are rife in many countries.In Israel, the war and its lack of an obvious endpoint have knocked confidence and curbed investing and growth, making it harder for authorities to temper rising inflation without <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/israels-tourism-industry-is-struggling-under-the-weight-of-war-2024-7">crushing the economy</a>, said Assaf Razin, a professor emeritus at the Eitan Berglas School of Economics at Tel Aviv University.He told BI the government must urgently improve its policies and close social and economic gaps, or "Israel's negative economic spiral could deepen, putting its status as a stable nation at risk."<h2 id="83bad37e-68a8-4bd3-b343-791751d185b3">Weathering the storm</h2>The conflict is less of a worry for the US, according to Oliver Allen, a senior economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics. Rising oil prices could drive inflation but they've dropped since the spring, and the US is a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/us-oil-production-record-brent-crude-prices-opec-russia-saudi-2023-12">net energy exporter,</a> so the effect on incomes and economic activity would "probably be trivial," he told BI.Confidence is unlikely to take a meaningful knock unless there's material escalation, Allen added.However, Hurricane Helene could <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/hurricane-helene-hits-asheville-beer-microbreweries-north-carolina-floods-2024-9">trigger</a> a "fairly sharp rise" in next week's initial jobless claims data, and reduce nonfarm payroll employment by about 20,000 in October's report, Allen said. But he emphasized that hurricanes have historically had limited and short-lived impacts on growth and inflation."The most likely outcome looks like a small but passing impact on some of the lower-level activity data and a slight, but also temporary, lift to inflation from some of these supply-side shocks," he said.An Oxford Economics report said that Hurricane Helene could affect several parts of the US economy — including consumer spending, the job market, housing, business profits, and industrial production — but it would likely have only a minimal impact on fourth-quarter GDP.Oxford Economics researchers said state and local economies might suffer but there would probably be limited fallout at the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-economy-markets-react-israel-iran-escalates-dockworkers-strike-helene-2024-10">national level</a>. Output is poised to recover during the rest of this quarter, boosted by cleanup and rebuilding after the storm, they said.One piece of good news arrived on Thursday night as tens of thousands of striking <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/striking-dockworkers-return-to-work-amid-ongoing-negotiations-cnn-2024-10">port workers agreed to suspend strike action</a> and return to work while contract negotiations continue.<h2 id="35a92ff2-8faf-4659-bedc-992f9a2af9d4">Trouble in China</h2>China is facing a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/oil-price-today-middle-east-israel-hezbollah-conflict-china-economy-2024-10">cocktail of economic challenges</a>. Its GDP grew by a disappointing 4.7% year-on-year in the second quarter, down from an annual average of nearly 8% for the decade before the pandemic.However, "that's not all bad given high inflation last year," Duncan Wrigley, the chief China economist at macroeconomic researchers Pantheon, told BI, adding inflation would have been higher had the economy grown faster.He predicted that China's recently unveiled economic stimulus package would buttress short-term growth but <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-stimulus-package-exciting-us-investors-consumer-issues-2024-9">would not address its root problems</a> such as high youth unemployment and a beleaguered property market. Wrigley suggested those and other issues could rear their heads again next year, spurring Beijing to offer further support.

Wider Middle East conflict threatens the global economy — when the US and China already face headwinds, experts say

Mumbai (Maharashtra) [India], August 8 (ANI): <keyword id="64190" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="RBI-Governor" source="Orion">RBI Governor</keyword> <keyword id="6359111" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Shaktikanta-Das" source="Orion">Shaktikanta Das</keyword> says <keyword id="19895000" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="inflation" source="keywords">inflation</keyword> will moderate from July onwards as the monsoon has improved and <keyword id="489239" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Global-food-prices" source="Orion">global food prices</keyword> have shown signs of easing in July. Das said, "Global food prices showed signs of easing in the month of July after registering an increase since March 2024." A degree of relief in food inflation is expected from the pickup in southwest monsoon and healthy progress in Kharif sowing. Buffer stocks of cereals continue to be above the norms, according to RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das. Das added, "Assuming a normal monsoon and taking into account the 4.9 per cent inflation print, Q1 CPI inflation for the current financial year (2024-25) is projected at 4.5 per cent, with q2 at 4.4 per cent, Q3 at 4.7 per cent and Q4 at 4.3 per cent. CPI inflation for the first quarter of next financial year (Q1 2025-26) is projected at 4.4 per cent." The inflation landscape reflects mixed signals, to which Das said, "<keyword id="21258540" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="headline-inflation" source="keywords">Headline inflation</keyword> eased up to 5.1 per cent in June 2024 due to higher than expected food inflation. Fuel remained in deflation for the 10th consecutive month. Core inflation moderated to a historic low in the months of May and June." RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das, outlined the <keyword id="19900794" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="economic-growth" source="keywords">economic growth</keyword> with real <keyword id="19972825" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="GDP-growth" source="keywords">GDP growth</keyword> of 7.2 per cent for the fiscal year 2024-25 and headline inflation eased to 5.1 per cent in June, on Thursday. Das said, "Real GDP growth for 2024-25 is projected at 7.2 per cent with Q1 at 7.1 per cent, Q2 at 7.2 per cent, Q3 at 7.3 per cent and Q4 at 7.2 per cent. Real GDP growth for Q1 2025-26, this is something which we are giving for the first time, is projected at 7.2 per cent. The risks are evenly balanced." He added, "We have slightly moderated the <keyword id="387719" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="growth-projection" source="Orion">growth projection</keyword> for the first quarter of the current financial year in relation to the projection we gave in the previous MPC in June. This is primarily due to updated information on certain high-frequency indicators which show lower than anticipated corporate profitability, general government expenditure and core industries output." This forecast marks a slight moderation from previous estimates provided in the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting in June, attributed to recent updates on high-frequency indicators such as corporate profitability, general government expenditure, and core industries output. The inflation landscape reflects mixed signals, to which Das said, "Headline inflation eased up to 5.1 per cent in June 2024 due to higher than expected food inflation. Fuel remained in deflation for the 10th consecutive month. Core inflation moderated to a historic low in the months of May and June." Balancing robust growth projections with a nuanced understanding of inflation dynamics Governor Das stated, "Food inflation which has a weight of around 46 per cent in the CPI basket, contributed to more than 75 per cent of headline inflation in May and June. Vegetable prices increased sharply and contributed about 35 per cent to inflation in June. High inflation pressures persisted across other major food items also." Governor Das mentioned softening in core inflation continues to be broad-based with core services inflation touching a new low in the current CPI series during the month of May and June 2024. Das stated, "The high food price momentum likely to have continued in the month of July also. Large favourable base effects may however push headline inflation downwards in July. The Impact of the revision in milk prices mobile tariffs also needs to be carefully monitored." A degree of relief in food inflation is expected from the pickup in south west monsoon and healthy progress in Kharif sowing. Buffer stocks of cereals continue to be above the norms, according to RBI Governor Shaktikanta das. Das anticipates some relief in food inflation due to the expected pickup in the southwest monsoon and healthy progress in Kharif sowing. Buffer stocks of cereals remain above the normative levels, contributing to a more stable food price environment. Global food prices, which have been on an upward trajectory since March 2024, showed signs of easing in July.

RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das projects 7.2% GDP growth for 2024-25, reports eased inflation to 5.1% in June

<ul><li>The Indian economy is expected to grow at over 7% rate in upcoming years</li><li>Fiscal deficit down to 6.4% of <keyword id="19904293" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="GDP" source="keywords">GDP</keyword> in FY24</li><li>Current Account Deficit (CAD) down to 0.7% of GDP </li></ul>With the <keyword id="19908389" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Union-Budget" source="keywords">Union Budget</keyword> 2024 to be presented tomorrow, Finance Minister <keyword id="19916618" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Nirmala-Sitharaman" source="keywords">Nirmala Sitharaman</keyword> is presenting the <keyword id="20613906" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="Economic-Survey" source="keywords">Economic Survey</keyword> in the parliament today. Think of the <keyword id="6354872" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="economic-survey" source="Orion">Economic Survey</keyword> as a report card of the country's economic performance over the past year, along with inputs and outlook for the coming fiscal year. Here are some crucial highlights from the Economic Survey 2023-24: <h2>Macro-economic indicators</h2>Per the World Economic Outlook in April, the <keyword id="19948494" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="global-economic-growth" source="keywords">global economic growth</keyword> was pegged at 3.2% in 2023. In contrast, <keyword id="19895063" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="India" source="keywords">India</keyword>'s real GDP grew by 8.2% in FY24, staying above the 8% mark for 3 out of 4 quarters in FY24. Gross Fixed Capital Formation, or investments in long-term, value-generating fixed assets increased by 9% real terms in 2023-24. The government trimmed down fiscal deficit trimmed down from 6.4% of GDP in FY23 to 5.6% of GDP in FY24.The current account deficit, which indicates that the country is a net importer rather than being an exporter, came down to 0.7% of GDP in FY24, as opposed to 2% of GDP in FY23. While retail inflation averaged at 6.7% in FY23, it dropped down to 5.4% in FY24 During FY24, primary markets saw capital formation, or facilitated raising funds worth Rs 10.9 lakh crore, which makes up for around 29% of the gross fixed capital formation. India's market capitalization to GDP ratio is the fifth largest in the world. <h2>Inflationary Trends </h2>Core inflation eased down to 9-year lows, while core goods inflation came down to a 4-year low. However, food inflation continued to stay high, inching up to 7.5% in FY24, as opposed to 6.6% in FY23. This was largely because of adverse weather conditions, which caused a spike in onion and tomato prices and impacted kharif crop production. Going ahead, RBI's short-term outlook remains positive. Assuming a normal monsoon and no extraordinary policy or geopolitical shocks, the inflation is estimated to drop to 4.5% in FY25, and further down to 4.1% in FY26. These are in line with IMF's inflation forecasts, which stand at 4.6% for 2024 and 4.2% for 2025. <h2>Export-Import trends</h2>India's service exports jumped by 4.9% to $341.1 billion in FY24, driven mainly by IT and software services. Apart from being the top remittance recipient globally, with remittances worth $120 billion in 2023, the country also witnessed investment inflows from foreign investors. As of March 2024, India's forex reserves were sufficient to cover over 10 months of projected imports in FY25, and about 98% of all its external debt. The country's external debt to GDP ratio has been largely consistent over the years, standing at 18.7% of the GDP as of March 2024. <h2>Key growth areas to look out for in FY25 </h2>Essential to adopt bottom-up reform approach, with special short to medium term emphasis on structural changes, job and skill creation, addressing challenges faced by MSMEs, managing India's transition towards a green, clean economy, deepening the country's nascent bond market and laying greater stress on tackling quality of health, especially amongst young Indians. Deliberate focus needed on boosting private investment, expanding India's MSMEs, tapping into the potential of India's agriculture sector, manage India's green transition, urgently bridge the employment-education gap and build capacity of states to sustain and complement India's growth. In the medium term, the country's economy is expected to grow at a rate of over 7%.

Economic Survey 2024: GDP grew by 8.2%, to sustain 7%+ growth momentum, fiscal deficit down to 6.4% of GDP

<ul class="summary-list"><li>A study found that implementing a global universal basic income could boost global GDP by 130%.</li><li>Funding a global UBI with a carbon tax would also promote sustainability, the study's authors say.</li></ul>Some might say a universal <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/minneapolis-guaranteed-basic-income-program-results-study-gbi-ubi-2024-1">basic income</a> is <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/iowa-republicans-block-guaranteed-basic-income-socialism-steroids-ubi-poverty-2024-1">wishful thinking</a>, but one study suggests it could have staggering impacts on the global economy.Researchers behind the newly published study, called <a target="_blank" href="https://www.cell.com/cell-reports-sustainability/fulltext/S2949-7906(24)00164-2#secsectitle0040">"Utilizing basic income to create a sustainable, poverty-free tomorrow,"</a> outlined how universal basic income could provide a "two-pronged solution to both environmental sustainability and social resilience" that could grow the global GDP from 39% up to 130%.Basic income pilots gained popularity after the COVID-19 pandemic, which caused record-high unemployment — <a target="_blank" href="https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/R/R46554/9#:~:text=The%20unemployment%20rate%20peaked%20at,to%20February%202020%20(3.5%25).">nearly 15%</a> — in the United States in early 2020.Most American programs are guaranteed basic income pilots, which provide a specific demographic of people with a set amount of cash with no strings attached for a predetermined time period. A <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/universal-basic-income-works-red-state-blue-state-2023-10">universal basic income</a> program, or UBI, would provide regular cash payments to everyone.Rashid Sumaila, the study's primary author at the University of British Columbia, found that a UBI funded by carbon taxes on a global scale would be costly upfront but pay off in spades.The study said that it could cost a third of global GDP to operate, but would result in an overall increase of the global GDP by as much as 130%."I must concede that the US may be the last place to engage with our proposal for all sorts of reasons," Sumaila told Business Insider. "But the situation may not persist forever as there are indications that Gen Z and millennials seem to care relatively more about tackling both climate change and inequality than older Americans."Basic income pilots in America have met with opposition from conservative lawmakers. One representative in Iowa, which moved to ban such programs, called it <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/iowa-republicans-block-guaranteed-basic-income-socialism-steroids-ubi-poverty-2024-1">"socialism on steroids."</a> In other parts of the world, however, the idea enjoys wide political support. South Africa is on track to be <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/south-africa-universal-basic-income-anc-2024-6">the first country</a> to adopt a universal basic income.Sumaila and the study's other co-authors focused on funding this global UBI plan through a carbon tax "because of the global push to reduce carbon emissions to reach sustainability goals," the study says. They found that a carbon tax could generate trillions annually, depending on the scale of the flat tax."In theory, it is a beautiful idea to use basic income to help people, sustain nature, and boost the economy. It also seems possible to raise a big chunk of the funds needed to do this by taxing C02 emitters, degraders of biodiversity, overfishers, deforesters, plastic polluters, oil spillers, and the agricultural sector," Sumaila told Business Insider.

Here's an idea: a worldwide universal basic income paid for by a carbon tax. A study found that it could boost the global GDP by 130%.

The <keyword id="20150760" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="SP-Global-Market-Intelligence" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="S&amp;P Global Market Intelligence" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="S&amp;P Global Market Intelligence">S&amp;P Global Market Intelligence</keyword> has upwardly revised <keyword id="22162557" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="GDP-forecasts" source="keywords">GDP forecasts</keyword> for <keyword id="19894886" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="China" source="keywords">China</keyword> in its latest report. But even with the revised forecast, China's GDP growth will be substantially lower than that of <keyword id="19895063" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="India" source="keywords">India</keyword>. According to S&amp;P, India's GDP is projected to grow at a rate of 6.7 per cent in 2024 and 6.3 per cent in 2025. In contrast, China's <keyword id="19931030" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="economy" source="keywords">economy</keyword> is now forecasted to grow at 5.0 per cent in 2024 and forecast moderately raised to 4.6 per cent from 4.5 per cent. The agency revised China's estimate due to policy tailwinds expected to extend into next year and a gradual improvement in private-sector sentiment within the country. However, the <keyword id="19899810" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="reserve-bank-of-india" source="keywords">Reserve Bank of India</keyword> (<keyword id="19899808" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="RBI" source="keywords">RBI</keyword>) in its monetary policy has raised the GDP forecast of India from 7 per cent to 7.2 per cent for FY25. RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das said, "The real GDP growth for the current financial year 2024-25 is projected at 7.2 per cent with Q1 at 7.3 per cent, Q2 at 7.2 per cent, Q3 at 7.3 per cent, and Q4 at 7.2 per cent. The risks are evenly balanced." RBI Governor further said that, "The GDP growth projection, we have increased it from 7 per cent to 7.2 per cent and the inflation projection, the average for the year, we have retained it at 4.5 per cent as it was in the last MPC meeting." The <keyword id="22162558" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="SP-Global-Market" source="keywords">S&amp;P Global Market</keyword> Intelligence however has lowered the growth forecasts of US, Canada, Brazil, and Japan for 2024, while it has revised upward the forecasts for China, the Eurozone, the UK, and Russia. Additionally, the <keyword id="22162559" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="global-growth-forecast" source="keywords">global growth forecast</keyword> for 2025 has edged up from 2.7 per cent to 2.8 per cent, with higher forecasts for some of the larger countries, including the US and China. Regarding Japan, the agency maintains that the next rate hike by the Bank of Japan is most likely to occur in October 2024, given the economic and inflationary headwinds. In the Asia-Pacific region, the agency predicts that real GDP growth, excluding mainland China and Japan, will remain broadly stable at 4.4 per cent in 2024 and 2025, driven by robust domestic demand and recovering exports. A pickup in overseas demand is seen as the key growth driver for the region in 2024.

You Searched For "global GDP" and got 11 results

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Global government borrowing is set to top $100 trillion — and shows no signs of slowing down

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SBI economists see Q2 GDP growth slowing down to 6.5%; FY25 growth to be closer to 7%

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Wider Middle East conflict threatens the global economy — when the US and China already face headwinds, experts say

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RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das projects 7.2% GDP growth for 2024-25, reports eased inflation to 5.1% in June

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Here's an idea: a worldwide universal basic income paid for by a carbon tax. A study found that it could boost the global GDP by 130%.

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