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<ul class="summary-list"><li>The war in Ukraine was the story that defined 2022. It will continue to shape the world in 2023.</li><li>Russia's invasion "represented a geopolitical earthquake," a former US ambassador to NATO said.</li></ul>When Russian President Vladimir Putin launched an unprovoked invasion of Ukraine in late February, it sent shockwaves across the world. The White House in early 2022 warned that an invasion <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/white-house-russia-ready-to-attack-ukraine-at-any-time-2022-1">could be imminent</a>, but there was still an overwhelming sense of disbelief when the Russian attack started. A nuclear power was vying to conquer its next-door neighbor. An unthinkable, nightmare scenario was now a reality — the largest military conflict in Europe since World War II had begun.Russia's invasion of Ukraine was the story that defined 2022, with cataclysmic consequences that have seeped into the daily lives of people across the globe — but none more so than the Ukrainian people.The war, which is still raging on, will continue to shape the world in the year to come and likely long after. "Russia's invasion of Ukraine represented a geopolitical earthquake, scrambling the entire chessboard of global politics," Ivo Daalder, a former US ambassador to NATO, told Insider. <div type="image" title="Ukraine troops fire M777 howitzer in Kharkiv" height="1333" width="1777" msid="96483094" hostid="261" sizebytes="539560"></div>In the months leading up to Russia's invasion, as it <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-accuses-us-hysteria-ukraine-troop-buildup-2022-1">gathered a massive force on Ukraine's borders</a>, there were serious doubts about the ability of the US to continue to shape global events and bring allies together. The US was left humiliated on the global stage in 2021 amid its <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/year-after-biden-afghanistan-pullout-us-faces-increasingly-unstable-world-2022-8">chaotic withdrawal from Afghanistan</a>, which saw <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/investigations/us-left-78000-afghan-allies-ngo-report-rcna18119" target="_blank" rel="noopener">thousands of Afghan allies</a> left behind as the Taliban regained control after twenty years of war.The disastrous pullout came less than a year after supporters of President Donald Trump stormed the US Capitol in a fatal insurrection, undermining faith in the strength and health of <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/after-trump-time-for-us-learn-other-countries-democracy-experts-2021-1">America's democracy</a>. Trump's tenure was typified by a seemingly never-ending cycle of self-induced crises. Meanwhile, far-right, hyper-nationalistic leaders with worldviews similar to Putin's were <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/europe-s-far-right-enjoys-backing-russia-s-putin-n718926" target="_blank" rel="noopener">gaining a foothold</a> in countries across the West. Throughout it all, Trump <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-continues-to-rewrite-history-on-his-support-for-ukraine-and-nato-2022-2">routinely attacked NATO</a> while praising authoritarians <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-has-enabled-autocrats-like-putin-become-presidents-for-life-2020-1">like the Russian leader.</a> By the end of 2021, the US looked like an unreliable partner and the transatlantic alliance seemed fractured. For Putin, who has been <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/putin-will-never-give-up-ukraine-as-long-as-hes-in-kremlin-2022-4">obsessed with Ukraine for years</a>, early 2022 probably seemed like an ideal moment to strike. Russia's military was considered to be among the most powerful in the world, surpassed only by the US. Kyiv was expected to fall within days if Russia invaded. And the West appeared too mired in its own problems to do anything about it. Not to mention, much of Europe was heavily reliant on Russia for energy — Moscow had leverage. But Putin miscalculated. Ukraine put up a far stiffer resistance than anyone expected, ensuring that Russia failed in its early objectives — including preventing Russian forces from seizing Kyiv. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, a former comedian and political neophyte, rallied the country and emerged as a wartime leader who's been applauded across the globe. Zelenskyy's refusal to flee Kyiv, despite the immense dangers, fueled Ukraine's resolve. The war in Ukraine rapidly <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/putin-invasion-of-ukraine-backfired-united-west-in-unprecedented-ways-2022-2">drove the West together,</a> with leaders like President Joe Biden portraying it as a fight between democracy and autocracy. Through careful diplomacy and coordination, the Biden administration helped build a coalition to provide Kyiv with vital support and isolate Russia both economically and politically. NATO banded together. Countries with longstanding policies of neutrality sent weapons to Ukraine. Finland and Sweden, which have historically been military non-aligned, moved to join NATO. The EU took steps toward ending its reliance on Russian energy. Putin launched the invasion with the intention of weakening NATO, an alliance that Ukraine has long sought to join. Though Ukraine is not a member and appears unlikely to be admitted at any point in the near future, particularly as the war continues, Putin's goal of eroding NATO unity backfired. Instead of debilitating the alliance, NATO is now on the verge of expanding — including by adding a country (Finland) that shares an 810-mile border with Russia. Meanwhile, the war left Russia with few friends on the global stage and catalyzed an awkward dynamic with Beijing, which has often sided with Moscow on geopolitical issues. The UN voted to condemn the invasion, and Russia was <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-suspended-from-un-human-rights-council-over-ukraine-invasion-2022-4">booted</a> from the UN Human Rights Council. Putin <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/putin-avoided-spotlight-skipped-g20-after-big-ukraine-setbacks-2022-11">skipped the G20</a> in Bali last month, and has made<a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-62218696" target="_blank" rel="noopener">few international trips</a> since the war began — only visiting the short list of countries still friendly to Russia such as Belarus and Iran. "Until February 24, Russia and China declared a partnership 'without limits' based on the idea that the West was divided, decadent, and in decline and that the East was rising in power and stature," Daalder said, adding, "The invasion changed all that. Far from seizing control of Ukraine in a matter of weeks, Russia's ambitions were thwarted by the combination of Ukrainian determination and Western support. Its military was exposed as weak and failing; its economy is gradually being cut off from the global system."Putin in recent days offered a rare admission that the war in Ukraine is not going well, pointing to an <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/putin-makes-rare-admission-that-ukraine-war-not-going-well-for-russia-2022-12">"extremely difficult"</a> situation in the occupied Ukrainian territories. In September, the Russian leader illegally annexed four Ukrainian territories despite the fact Russian forces did not fully control these regions. The Russian military has lost ground in these territories ever since, and retreated from Kherson — the first major city Russia captured after invading — last month. Russia's economy also fell into a recession in November.<div type="image" title="Putin SCTO summit" height="1000" width="1333" msid="96483095" hostid="261" sizebytes="47072"></div>Admiral Sir Tony Radakin, the head of the UK's armed forces, in mid-December said that Russia is <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-is-losing-ukraine-will-continue-fail-uk-military-chief-2022-12">"losing in Ukraine"</a> and "will continue to fail." Russia is estimated to have suffered roughly 100,000 casualties in the war so far, a staggering figure in less than a year of fighting. Meanwhile, Western officials say the Russian military is rapidly running out of munitions, which will severely hinder its ability to continue offensive ground operations.Between the grim situation on the ground in the war for Russian forces and Moscow's economic woes, NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg recently said that 2022 has been a <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/2022-has-been-dismal-year-of-failure-for-putin-nato-chief-2022-12">"dismal year of failure"</a> for Putin — leaving Russia the poorest and most isolated it's been in decades."In contrast, America is truly back. The Biden administration proved adroit and highly effective in leading a Western coalition to oppose Russia and stand by Ukraine," Daalder said. "The West itself has been transformed, now having realized that the world is far from a peaceful place and hard, military and economic power, is as important as soft, civil power."The war in Ukraine is far from over. And talks to end the fighting appear to be virtually impossible as things stand. As the conflict continues in 2023, its rippling effects — high energy prices and inflation — are poised to fester. "The Kremlin, which launched the unprovoked assault on Ukraine in February, shows no sign of being prepared to negotiate seriously, even though however the war turns out, Russia will emerge diminished in military, economic, and geopolitical terms," Steven Pifer, a former US ambassador to Ukraine, told Insider. "Ukraine is the victim, and, if anything, its resolve to resist has hardened since February. Moreover, the Ukrainian military has had the momentum on the battlefield the past three months. So, it appears that the war will continue for some time, well into 2023 and perhaps longer."Though the war has not gone well for Russia, the ongoing invasion of Ukraine will continue to pose numerous, difficult questions for the West and beyond in 2023.There is <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/gop-midterms-win-could-threaten-ukraine-help-putin-2022-10">increasing opposition among Republicans</a> to the levels of aid provided to Ukraine by the US, which could prove to be a headache for the White House after the GOP takes control of the House in January. As the war drags on and the global economic fallout becomes more pronounced, there could be also be <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/progressive-democrats-withdraw-letter-calling-biden-pursue-talks-with-russia-2022-10">rising calls in Congress for talks</a> to end the fighting — even if it involves Kyiv making concessions. Debates over these issues could add to an already historically divisive atmosphere in Washington. On top of this, Putin's repeated nuclear threats have raised serious alarm. Some experts have warned that the nuclear dangers posed by the Ukraine war after are <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/ukraine-wars-nuclear-risk-far-worse-than-cuban-missile-crisis-experts-2022-10">"far worse"</a> than the Cuban missile crisis, which occurred 60 years ago this past October. "The kinds of consequences that the war has generated for the broader global community are likely to continue to be felt in 2023," Pifer said. Indeed, the global dimensions of the Ukraine war could make it an era-defining fight. "No other story so encapsulates the lasting transformation of the world than this one. It's effect will be with us for many years," Daalder said.

Russia's invasion of Ukraine was a 'geopolitical earthquake' that defined 2022 and has transformed the world for years to come

2024 is the year of the incredible shrinking China.The country's growth has been treated like an inevitability for decades. Everything was getting bigger — its cultural influence, geopolitical ambition, population — and seemed poised to continue until the world was remade in China's image. The foundation for this inexorable rise was its booming economy, which allowed Beijing to throw its might around in other areas. But now China's economy is withering, and the future Beijing imagined is being cut down to size along with it.The clearest sign of this diminishment is China's worsening deflation problem. While Americans are worried about inflation, or prices rising too fast, policymakers in Beijing are fretting because prices are falling. The <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-deflation-debt-property-market-default-consumption-growth-morgan-stanley-2023-12">consumer price index has declined</a> for the past three months, the longest deflationary streak since 2009. In the race for global economic supremacy, deflation is an albatross around Beijing's neck. It's a sign that the <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-xi-jinping-economy-real-estate-debt-bust-american-companies-2023-10">Chinese economic model has well and truly run out of juice</a> and that a painful restructuring is required. But beyond the financial problems, the sinking prices are <a target="_blank" href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/08/21/business/china-deflation.html">a sign of a deeper malaise</a> gripping the Chinese people."China's deflation is the deflation of hope, the deflation of optimism. It's a psychological funk," Minxin Pei, a professor of political science at Claremont McKenna College, told me.The fallout won't be contained to China's shores. Because the country's growth sent money stampeding around the globe over the past few decades, its contractions are creating a seesaw effect in global markets. The foreign investors who helped to power China's rise are running to avoid catching the funk on their balance sheets, and governments the world over are starting to question the narrative of China, the dauphin. What Beijing does — or fails to do — to fight this malaise will determine the course of humanity for decades to come.<h2>Flirting with disaster</h2>It may seem counterintuitive, especially given the Western experience of the past few years, but deflation is in many ways scarier than inflation. Inflation occurs when there's too much demand for too few products — people want to buy things, but there simply isn't enough stuff to go around. By contrast, deflation happens when there are plenty of goods and services available but not enough demand. Businesses are then forced to slash prices to entice consumers to come out and spend. Every economy sees recessions or downturns — periods of declining demand and sinking confidence that force companies to put their wares on sale — but sustained deflation is what happens when those maladies make themselves at home and decide to stay.China's deflation worries started in earnest in the summer. <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-economy-recession-inflation-deflation-xi-jinping-stimulus-cpi-ppi-2023-8">Consumer prices contracted</a> 0.3% in July compared with the same month a year before — something that hadn't happened since the depths of the pandemic. While other advanced economies were taking off too fast, China was showing signs that it might be getting stuck. Prices seemed to stabilize in August — until <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/china-pork-prices-have-fallen-dragging-country-into-deflation-2023-8">pork prices started to decline dramatically</a>, pushing down the aggregate price index in October, November, and December. There was some hope for policymakers, though, since much of the deflation was driven by pork prices, which are extremely volatile in China. But recent data shows that core inflation, which excludes more volatile categories such as food and energy, is similarly anemic, rising just 0.6% year over year in December. Charlene Chu, a director and senior analyst at Autonomous Research, said the major question for Beijing was whether the price declines would continue into 2024 or whether the country could reignite some demand. She wasn't hopeful for the latter."I lean toward deflationary pressures continuing to build, but the data continuing to go back and forth through the year," Chu told me via email.China's primary problem, though, is debt, particularly in the real-estate sector, which makes up 25% to 35% of the country's GDP. Years of overbuilding — by about double the population, according to <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-vacant-homes-3-billion-people-housing-crisis-ex-official-2023-9">some estimates</a> — and slowing population growth caused <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-xi-jinping-economy-real-estate-debt-bust-american-companies-2023-10">prices to collapse</a>. The real-estate trouble has ravaged the balance sheets of Chinese households — many of which have sunk a massive proportion of their savings into property — and cast a pall on the rest of the economy."Chinese people have 70% of assets in housing, so you can imagine the effect on confidence," Wei Yao, the chief economist at Société Générale, told me. "This is the factor why this deflation could be long-lasting."Seeing their investments tank has led many people to stop spending. Fifteen years ago, Wall Street assumed that the Chinese consumer would ultimately become the dictator of the global economy. Now they're in hiding. Even as the country emerged from the deep freeze of its "Zero COVID" policy, retail sales growth was disappointing compared with some analysts' projections."I think it is unrealistic to believe that deflationary pressure will disappear when there is still so much pressure on property prices and consumers are in savings mode," Chu said.<h2>Now I'm trapped</h2>In 2002, Ben Bernanke, who went on the chair the Federal Reserve, gave a <a target="_blank" href="https://www.federalreserve.gov/BOARDDOCS/Speeches/2002/20021121/default.htm">seminal speech</a> about how to combat deflation. As an economic historian, he spent his academic career studying the Great Depression — the mother of all deflationary events — and based on his research, he had come to a few conclusions. I'll give you a few that are relevant to China's current situation:<ol><li>Deflationary events are rare, but even moderate deflation — "a decline in consumer prices of about 1% per year," as Bernanke put it — can zap growth out of an economy for years.</li><li>In a deflationary economy, debt becomes more onerous to pay back because money is scarcer, a situation known as "debt deflation."</li><li>The "prevention of deflation is preferable to having to cure it."<div type="image" title="Xi Jinping" height="1359" width="2000" msid="107030582" hostid="261"></div></li></ol>Japan is a more-recent example of the deflation trap. Japan is maybe, just maybe, getting out of a <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-economy-japanification-financial-markets-japan-jpmorgan-deflation-property-2023-8">25-year dance</a> with the deflation demon. After decades of supercharged growth, the country's economy collapsed in the 1990s because of heavy debt and an aging population. Together, those forces pushed the country into deflation, kept wages suppressed, and dampened consumer spending. Sound familiar?What we learned from Japan's years of stagnation is that once deflation sets in, the only way out is through a painful restructuring of debt. Société Générale's Yao told me that if Beijing quickly embarked on such an anti-debt campaign, it could prevent the funk from setting in. The problem is we have yet to see evidence that the Chinese Communist Party is willing to do that.<h2>Fire? What fire?</h2>Of course, if the Chinese Communist Party asked Bernanke what to do about deflation, he'd probably tell them to take dramatic action yesterday. Spray the money gun, start dropping cash from helicopters, get people spending again. Deflation can only be slayed by boosting demand. But the CCP's unwillingness to directly help Chinese households, even in the depth of the COVID-19 crisis, makes this kind of support unlikely."China gave no fiscal support during the pandemic," Yao reminded me during our talk. "Every other large economy gave some kind of stimulus."Sure, Beijing has taken measures over the past year to loosen financial conditions <a target="_blank" href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/rates-bonds/debt-laden-chinas-local-governments-scramble-rescue-small-banks-with-21-bln-2023-11-28/">for banks and state-owned businesses</a>. It has also <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-economy-key-interest-rate-deepest-cut-since-2020-july-2023-8">cut interest rates</a> a little bit and given a $140 billion lifeline to <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-economy-crisis-debt-deflation-beijing-fines-taxes-health-insurance-2023-9">struggling local governments</a>. But wonky supply-side mechanisms take time to make their way into the lives of normal people and spur demand — if it happens at all. At best, they can keep deflation from taking hold, but they can't turn it around to growth."Any true acceleration next year will require either a major global upside surprise or more active government policy," analysts at China Beige Book, a surveyor of the Chinese economy, said in a recent note to clients.It's not as if the CCP is in the dark about the economy's struggles. China's leader, Xi Jinping, even made mention of the reality that Chinese people were suffering financially during his New Year's speech — a first for him. And while the party's apparatchiks may seem stoic as they announce that China's GDP growth is meeting expectations, their softer tone and more aggressive courting of international business belies their concern. The question is, if Beijing knows how bad things are getting, why aren't they doing more?Analysts are split on why there's been no fiscal support to households. In a <a target="_blank" href="https://rhg.com/research/the-myth-of-chinas-fiscal-space/">research note</a> published in August, Logan Wright, an analyst at Rhodium Group, argued that China's ability to deliver fiscal stimulus was greatly overestimated. Beijing's levers "are far more impaired than commonly understood," Wright told me in a recent phone interview. "The problem is that China doesn't collect much tax outside of its investment-led growth model," he added. Up to its eyeballs in debt obligations and without a robust fundraising mechanism, Beijing doesn't have the cash bazooka it once did. But there's another, perhaps bleaker, possibility. It's not that Beijing can't deliver stimulus, it's that it simply won't do it. Xi doesn't believe in direct cash payments to people. And now, since all of China is run by a one-man band, that's all that matters."I reached the conclusion that there is a bit of ideology," Yao told me. "In a sense, Xi Jinping wants to develop his own economic order. He's trying to avoid making the same mistake as the West, which is wasting money and spending things that don't generate long-term returns. In that perspective, sending checks to households doesn't generate long-term returns."Maybe it's a little of both. There have been times in the history of the Chinese Communist Party when different factions — reform vs. anti-reform — had the space to debate and change the government's course on policy. In Xi's China, that space is gone, shrunk into whatever can fit in the palm of his hand.<h2>It's not just the economy</h2>Under Xi, all kinds of spaces in China have gotten smaller. (OK, it's not his fault that the <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/why-is-china-population-falling-economy-deflation-evergrande-xi-jinping-2024-1">population is shrinking</a>.) But his government has led to the narrowing of any space beyond the reach of the CCP. That includes the arts and <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-china-xi-jinping-critic-tsinghua-house-arrest-internet-cut-2020-2">intellectual life</a>, a variety of forms of <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/chinese-censors-quietly-deleting-wechat-accounts-run-by-lgbt-groups-2021-7">individual expression</a>, and private business. China before Xi was a place learning to handle a plurality of voices — as long as they weren't brazenly attacking the country. China during Xi is a place where people online speak in code to express even their minor dissatisfaction, only to watch <a target="_blank" href="https://icsin.org/blogs/2023/10/10/internet-censorship-in-china-the-struggle-to-swat-flies-away-2/">CCP censors rub their words away</a>."Chinese people have to shrink their ambitions," Claremont's Pei told me. "People in the government should have their ambitions scaled dramatically."This ideological shrinking is taking many forms: <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-punished-over-600000-officials-amid-xis-corruption-clampdown-2022-1">Beijing's nominally anti-corruption drive</a> is back in full swing, ensnaring <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-sacked-defense-minister-without-explanation-months-after-disappearance-2023-10">officials from all over the government</a> who strayed from the Xi line. <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/jack-ma-other-chinese-businessmen-disappeared-public-life-2021-1">Billionaire businesspeople are on notice</a> that their <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/list-execs-in-the-cross-hairs-of-the-chinese-government-2023-10">wealth will no longer protect them</a> from the CCP's harsh gaze. <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-economy-foreign-investment-deficit-beijing-xi-jinping-zero-covid-2023-11">Foreign investors are running</a> for the hills. Even China's flagship One Belt One Road infrastructure loan program has been <a target="_blank" href="https://apnews.com/article/china-belt-road-initiative-a4b08290cf94e4f2dffe368a013c5129">pared down</a>. "They're not bestriding the world anymore," one former US diplomat posted in East Asia told me.This doesn't necessarily mean China poses no adversarial challenge to the US. It just means Beijing is prioritizing where it invests in that competition. Xi will not back off from investing in the military because reunification with Taiwan remains his paramount goal. The central government will continue to invest in technology and in advancing industries where it thinks it can press any first-mover advantages. Think: electric cars, batteries, and solar panels."We don't think the US faces a growth challenge from China anymore at this stage," Rhodium Group's Wright said. "The concern from the US and Europe are the spillovers from excess capacity." In other words, China will pick its fights more selectively and defend its economic advantages more fiercely. A world built larger through global financial connections will disconnect and disperse into smaller nodes.Do not expect a shrinking China to be a shrinking violet. Outside loaning money, magnanimity has never been Beijing's strong suit. The slights that smarted when it was a growing superpower will only hurt more in shrunken stature. Xi will never let go of saving face. That's the nature of a one-man reign.<a target="_blank" rel="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/author/linette-lopez">Linette Lopez</a> is a senior correspondent at Business Insider.

China's rapidly dwindling future will shape the world for decades to come

In the history of <keyword id="171345" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="india-us-ties" source="Orion">India-US ties</keyword>, 2022 has been a huge year and the next year will be even bigger, a top White House official has said, asserting that the Biden administration sees this alliance as among the most consequential relationships for America anywhere in the world. Principal Deputy National Security Advisor Jon Finer also applauded Prime Minister Narendra Modi for being instrumental in forging a consensus during the recently concluded <keyword id="417259" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="g-20-summit" source="Orion">G-20 Summit</keyword> in Indonesia's Bali province. "Looking around the world when the United States and (its) President (Joe) Biden look for partners that can truly help carry the load, truly helped move forward a global agenda, India and Prime Minister Modi are very high on that list," Finer told a gathering of several hundred Indian-Americans here on Sunday. "We just saw this in real-time at the G-20 where the prime minister was instrumental in forging a consensus around a joint statement among a far-flung group of countries and in the comments and work that the prime minister has done and others in the Indian government have done to highlight the increasing risk related to nuclear issues," he said. This relationship is being steered by Prime Minister Modi and President Biden who have met more than 15 times, the latest one being in Bali last week, said India's Ambassador to the US Taranjit Singh Sandhu, addressing the gathering at a lunch reception hosted by him to celebrate the 'Festival Season'. The unique event organised by the Embassy of India showcased the syncretic nature of Indian culture. The event saw festivals of different faiths - from Diwali to Hanukkah, Eid to Bodhi day, and from Gurpurab to Christmas celebrated with aplomb. Attended by top officials of the Biden administration, including Senior Advisor to the President Neera Tanden and Surgeon General Dr Vivek Murthy, the event demonstrated amply India's unique stature as the embodiment of 'Unity in Diversity' - a land where various faiths have not only coexisted but flourished. "This event really demonstrates so much about what President Biden is talking about when he talks about an inclusive country, a country that celebrates our diversity and our strength in diversity," Tanden said. "I'm grateful for this partnership between the United States and India. I think it has been important in the past, but it will be even more important going forward," Murthy said. Reflecting on his views on the India-US relationship, Finer reiterated the administration's commitment to it and said 2022 and 2023 are two critical years for this. "The year 2022 was huge in US-India relations. We think we have an even bigger year ahead in 2023. We have the Quad summit on the agenda coming up. We have India's G20 presidency, which I know we're all looking forward to, including Prime Minister Modi," Finer said in his address. He referred to the 2+2 Quad ministerial meetings taking place this spring, the relaunch of Indi US CEO dialogue and launch of critical and emerging technology dialogue early in 2023. "That's just the tip of the iceberg," Finer said, adding that both 2022 and 2023 are emblematic of how this relationship has proceeded for decades now. The entire Biden administration and certainly the president sees this as among the most consequential relationships for the US anywhere in the world, but also almost uniquely one of the relationships that still retains some of the greatest potential to continue to evolve and strengthen and improve, Finer said. "We are deeply committed to doing just that. It's easy to see why that is the case. At a time that can be extremely difficult to forge a bipartisan consensus in Washington on almost anything, there is a strong bipartisan consensus in support of the US-India relationship and has been for decades and a high degree of continuity from one administration to the next," he said. "There is obviously an increasing alignment of our interests, both geopolitically and as two world-leading democracies. And then, of course, the deep ties and incredible dynamism of our diaspora community, our cultural ties or commercial ties. "And then finally, and I don't want this to be lost, there are the ties of our leadership, which we consider to be hugely important," he said. Among those who attended the event included an array of important dignitaries, with friends of India from the administration, the US Congress, from different states, the think-tank community, private sector organisations, and the Indian diaspora. Notable attendees included Special Presidential Coordinator Amos Hochstein and Lieutenant Governor-Elect of Maryland Aruna Miller. SEE ALSO: <a target="_blank" class="c-link c-message_attachment__title_link" href="https://www.businessinsider.in/international/news/india-played-essential-role-in-negotiating-g20-declaration-white-house/articleshow/95617104.cms">India played essential role in negotiating G20 declaration: White House</a> <a target="_blank" class="c-link c-message_attachment__title_link" href="https://www.businessinsider.in/business/news/real-estate-investors-may-be-turning-to-india-following-a-continued-slump-in-chinas-property-market-says-a-report/articleshow/95649758.cms" style="">Real estate investors may be turning to India following a continued slump in China's property market, says a report</a>

2022 huge year for US-India ties, 2023 to be even bigger: White House

<ul class="summary-list"><li>The Xuelong 2, <keyword id="1334" type="COUNTRY" weightage="60" keywordseo="China">China</keyword>'s first domestically built <keyword id="1287391" type="PERSON" weightage="60" keywordseo="icebreaker">icebreaker</keyword> left Shanghai on July 15 for its first trip to the <keyword id="59606" type="CITY" weightage="60" keywordseo="arctic">Arctic</keyword>.</li><li>It's not the first time a Chinese icebreaker has gone to the Arctic, but the ship and the trip underscore Chinese ambitions for the region at a time when many countries are pursuing their interests there.</li></ul>China's first domestically built icebreaker left this month for its first trip to the Arctic, a few days after President Donald Trump said the US was pursuing as many as 10 new icebreakers of its own, underscoring the growing interest major powers have in being able to access the region.Xuelong 2, or Snow Dragon 2, left Shanghai on July 15 for a scientific expedition to the Arctic and is expected to return in late September. Scientists aboard the ship plan to research Arctic biodiversity and ecosystems to improve China's understanding of climate change in the Arctic, <a href="http://www.china.org.cn/china/2020-07/16/content_76277317.htm" target="_blank" rel="noopener">according</a> to state media.The Xuelong, which China bought in the 1990s, has <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-is-carving-out-a-foothold-in-the-arctic-2017-10" target="_blank" rel="noopener">already traveled</a> to the Arctic. While Xuelong 2's trip isn't a first for Beijing, it adds credibility to China's polar ambitions, according to Dr. Elizabeth Buchanan, a lecturer at Deakin University in Australia.<div type="image" title="Xue Long icebreaker China" height="996" width="1500" msid="77117847" hostid="261"></div>"It is a 'win' for Beijing in that the <keyword id="6356001" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="international">international</keyword> community is witnessing the sheer ability for China to domestically design, build, and operate a icebreaker," said Buchanan, also a non-resident fellow at West Point's Modern War Institute.A number of countries are trying to improve their ability to operate in the Arctic, where receding ice and warming temperatures promise access to natural resources and shipping routes. Most of them border the <keyword id="64862" type="PERSON" weightage="60" keywordseo="Arctic-Ocean">Arctic Ocean</keyword> and claim a portion of its waters. Many view China's designs skeptically, especially its self-designation as a "<a href="http://english.www.gov.cn/archive/white_paper/2018/01/26/content_281476026660336.htm" target="_blank" rel="noopener">near-Arctic state</a>."While only "a small sliver" of the Arctic is international waters, "China is pushing this narrative that the Arctic is global commons, trying to broaden out the 'buy-in' China really has with regards to the region," Buchanan said in an email."The West has not (until now) done a great job at pushing back against this commons approach. New ice-breaking capabilities on show with [Xuelong 2] kind of force us to realize Beijing is not going anywhere in the Arctic narrative," Buchanan added.While the stated objectives for the Xuelong 2's expedition relate to scientific research, the intent is twofold, Buchanan said: It's "a domestic PR stunt" to bolster China's global stature and is meant to convey to Arctic-rim states that China is a relevant stakeholder in the region, "now with the capability to credibly back [its] interest."<h2>A 'precarious' Arctic relationship</h2><div type="image" title="Russia Vladimir Putin China Xi Jinping BRICS" height="933" width="1400" msid="77117848" hostid="261"></div>China has worked closely with <keyword id="6358826" type="LOCATION" weightage="60" keywordseo="Russia">Russia</keyword> on Arctic infrastructure and other projects. Their partnership has <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2020/06/06/russia-china-alliance-304582" target="_blank" rel="noopener">worried</a> other <a href="https://www.state.gov/looking-north-sharpening-americas-arctic-focus/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">countries</a> for geopolitical and geo-economic reasons, but experts question its extent and staying power."Chinese experts recognize that Russia will never accept China as an equal partner in the Arctic, because if you had a partnership in the Arctic, the question would be who would be the number one partner," Elizabeth Wishnick, an expert on Chinese foreign policy at Montclair State University, said at <a href="https://vimeo.com/439249300" target="_blank" rel="noopener">a recent event</a> hosted by the research group CNA.Their cooperation has mostly been economic, with China supplying needed investment in Russia's liquefied natural gas projects and for other infrastructure, though progress has been limited, partly due to Russian wariness of China."I think that it's going to be kind of a mixed picture with a deepening Russia-China partnership as a whole," Wishnick said. "But in the Arctic, I think that's where the brakes are going to be applied to some extent."<div type="image" title="Russia tanker Arctic Yamal LNG" height="1648" width="2500" msid="77117849" hostid="261"></div>China's recent push into the Arctic should be a reason for countries on the Arctic rim to unite, Buchanan said. "It's something Russia and the West have common interest in containing."Russia knows it's reliant on China for investment in its Arctic energy projects and is pursuing other partners for that reason, Buchanan said."The Russia-China Arctic relationship is extremely precarious, but at least both parties recognize this. Beijing needs access to Russia's [Northern Sea Route] to fulfill Polar Silk Road ambitions and for now will continue to play by Moscow's rules there," Buchanan added. "Problem is, Moscow can't trust Beijing to continue to do so."<h2>'We're trying to do a deal'</h2>With two icebreakers, China has as many as the US. Russia, however, has more than 40 of different sizes that operate in the Arctic and the Baltic Sea.Russia is also <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-eyeing-arctic-future-launches-nuclear-icebreaker-2019-5" target="_blank" rel="noopener">increasing production</a> of nuclear-powered icebreakers, and reports that it could arm its icebreakers have <a href="https://www.highnorthnews.com/en/us-warns-russian-arctic-military-buildup-who-puts-missiles-icebreakers" target="_blank" rel="noopener">concerned</a> the US.The Coast Guard operates both US icebreakers, the medium icebreaker Healy and the heavy icebreaker Polar Star. The Polar Star is more than 40 years old and <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/coast-guard-arctic-freedom-of-navigation-exercise-polar-star-russia-2018-12" target="_blank" rel="noopener">breaks down regularly</a>.<div type="image" title="US Coast Guard Polar Star icebreaker Arctic Antarctic Ross Sea" height="935" width="1400" msid="77117850" hostid="261"></div>The US is seeking to build more polar security cutters, as its icebreakers are known, awarding a contract worth up to $2 billion for as many as three, with the first delivered in 2024 and the third by 2029."We've approved ... two polar security cutters for the United States Coast Guard," Trump said in a July 10 speech. "We have under construction right now the largest icebreaker in the world, and we're going to be trying to get, if we can, an extra 10 icebreakers.""We're trying to do a deal with a certain place that has a lot of icebreakers, and we're seeing if we can make a really good deal where you can have them very fast," Trump said. "We're working on it, and I think we can surprise you."It's not clear what Trump was referring to, but earlier this year the White House ordered the Coast Guard and other federal agencies to review plans for the icebreaker fleet, including identifying options "to bridge the gap of available vessels" as soon as late 2021.The <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/memorandum-safeguarding-u-s-national-interests-arctic-antarctic-regions/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">order</a> said the review should "specifically include operational risk associated with using a leased vessel as compared to a purchased vessel to conduct specified missions."

China's first homemade icebreaker heads to the Arctic as Trump looks for 10 more of them from 'a certain place'

<div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table"><div><div class="image on-image">Kevin Frayer/Getty ImagesUighur men in the in the far western Xinjiang province, China.</div></div></div><ul class="summary-list"><li>McKinsey &amp; Company held a lavish corporate retreat in Kashgar, about four miles from where thousands of Muslim Chinese are locked up in an internment camp, the New York Times reported <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/12/15/world/asia/mckinsey-china-russia.html?action=click&amp;module=Top%20Stories&amp;pgtype=Homepage">on Saturday</a>.</li><li>The retreat highlighted McKinsey's work with China, as consultants enjoyed bonfires, camel rides, and red carpets. </li><li>This anecdote speaks to a troubling trend at McKinsey - engaging in work with authoritarian leaders around the globe, even as the consulting firm professes to "make a positive difference."</li></ul><a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/how-xi-jinping-is-attacking-religion-in-china-2018-11">Up to one million Chinese citizens</a> have been allegedly locked up in the western region of Xinjiang - a remote, Muslim-majority Chinese province populated by the Uighur ethnic minority.Reports of a massive police state that China has launched in Xinjiang <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-self-own-uighur-muslims-normal-people-terrorism-isis-2018-12">has horrified people</a> around the world, who have demanded China cease its surveillance, imprisonment, and <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/life-inside-china-internment-camps-for-uighur-minority-in-xinjiang-bbc-report-2018-8">forced re-education</a> of Chinese Muslims. The United Nations <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-rights-un/u-n-calls-on-china-to-free-uighurs-from-re-education-camps-idUSKCN1LF1D6">has demanded</a> that China release the imprisoned citizens.But the people at McKinsey &amp; Company's recent retreat in Kashgar, a Xinjiang city, didn't seem to mind. <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/12/15/world/asia/mckinsey-china-russia.html?action=click&amp;module=Top%20Stories&amp;pgtype=Homepage">A report</a> from The New York Times revealed on Saturday that McKinsey held a corporate retreat in Kashgar about four miles from an internment camp that holds thousands of Uighurs.<div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table"><div><div class="image on-image">Thomas Peter/ReutersA police officer checks a Uighur man's ID documents in Kashgar, Xinjiang, in March 2017.</div></div></div>The anecdote speaks to a larger trend at McKinsey, wrote New York Times reporters <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/by/walt-bogdanich">Walt Bogdanich</a> and <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/by/michael-forsythe">Michael Forsythe</a>:At a time when democracies and their basic values are increasingly under attack, the iconic American company has helped raise the stature of authoritarian and corrupt governments across the globe, sometimes in ways that counter American interests.Indeed, at the Kashgar retreat, McKinsey consultants spent their time discussing their work with state-owned Chinese firms, as well as riding camels and going to lavish bonfires, the Times <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/12/15/world/asia/mckinsey-china-russia.html?action=click&amp;module=Top%20Stories&amp;pgtype=Homepage">reported</a>. They spent their time in tents in the Kashgar desert that were linked by red carpets. And the consultants documented the "Disney-like" experience on Instagram, according to The New York Times.The decision to do business with state-owned firms and hold a sumptuous retreat four miles from an internment camp enforcing<a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/how-xi-jinping-is-attacking-religion-in-china-2018-11"> Islamophobic policies</a> by the Chinese government stands in contrast with what McKinsey alleges to be its mission and purpose in the world. The second "value" listed on its website is "observe high ethical standards."The Times report <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/12/15/world/asia/mckinsey-china-russia.html?action=click&amp;module=Top%20Stories&amp;pgtype=Homepage">also detailed</a> McKinsey's business deals with authoritarian figures in the Ukraine, Russia, Saudi Arabia, and Malaysia. <div>"Since 1926, McKinsey has sought to make a positive difference to the businesses and communities in which our people live and work," the company said in a statement to the Times."Like many other major corporations including our competitors, we seek to navigate a changing geopolitical environment, but we do not support or engage in political activities," the company added.</div><h2>Read the entire New York Times report on McKinsey <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/12/15/world/asia/mckinsey-china-russia.html?action=click&amp;module=Top%20Stories&amp;pgtype=Homepage">here</a>. </h2> <div class="margin-top"> <h3>NOW WATCH: <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/beards-facial-hair-men-cant-grow-dermatologist-testosterone-2018-11">The reason some men can't grow full beards, according to a dermatologist</a></h3> <div> </div> </div>

McKinsey held a lavish corporate retreat in Kashgar miles from where the Chinese government is imprisoning up to one million ethnic Uighurs

<div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table float_right"><div><div class="image on-image">Hannibal Hanschke/ReutersTwo activists with the EU flag and Union Jack painted on their faces kiss each other in front of Brandenburg Gate to protest against the British exit from the European Union, in Berlin, Germany, June 19, 2016.</div></div></div>The UK will vote Thursday on whether to leave the European Union in a so-called Brexit.Polls show the Leave and Remain camps in a dead heat, although the two <a href="http://uk.businessinsider.com/survation-eu-referendum-poll-indicates-1-point-lead-for-remain-2016-6">newest results</a> show the latter slightly ahead.If the Brits vote in favor of leaving, the consequences for investors could be severe: <a href="http://uk.businessinsider.com/hsbc-what-happens-day-after-britain-votes-leave-brexit-eu-referendum-2016-6">HSBC's chief economist Simon Wells argued</a> that the near-term economic risks and market impact could include an immediate 15% drop in the pound against the dollar, a fall for the euro as well, and a global move to "risk-off," meaning investors sell stocks in favor of the perceived security of bonds.However, even if the Brits vote to stay, both the UK and Europe could be looking at a rocky couple of months amid ongoing large-scale economic and political challenges such as the <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/refugees-turning-europe-upside-down-2016-1">migrant crisis</a>, the <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/the-eu-turkey-refugee-deal-just-took-another-big-hit-2016-6">Turkey-EU refugee deal</a>, and the seemingly endless drama in <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/mind-blowing-facts-about-greece-economy-2015-6">Greece</a>.In a recent note to clients, a Morgan Stanley research team led by Elga Bartsch briefly outlined how the Brexit vote relates to the overall political situation across the continent (emphasis ours):"A UK vote to leave the EU would clearly cause protracted political uncertainty for the UK and for Europe more broadly. But a vote to remain - which remains our base case - might still leave us with a deeply divided nation, divisive UK <keyword id="6358883" type="PERSON" weightage="60" keywordseo="Politics">politics</keyword>, and a hesitant European Union.What's more, in our view, the political discontent that is being displayed around the public debate about Brexit is deep-rooted and likely to be echoed elsewhere. The political fragmentation that currently manifests itself in an increasingly populist debate about the UK's EU membership is neither limited to the UK or Europe nor it is likely to dissipate quickly, we think. In our view, the voter backlash against established political parties and international institutions is on the rise."<div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table float_left"><div><div class="image on-image">REUTERS/Leonhard FoegerAustrian far right Freedom Party (FPOe) presidential candidate Norbert Hofer arrives for his final election rally in Vienna, Austria, May 20, 2016.</div></div></div>As an example of the kind of backlash Bartsch describes, Austria <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/everything-you-need-to-know-about-austrias-donald-trump-far-right-presidential-candidate-norbert-hofer-2016-5">nearly elected</a> in May the first far-right European head of state since World War II. Another example, which many people might have missed given the anxiety surrounding the Brexit vote, is that the eurosceptic, anti-establishment Five Star Movement <a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-36569410">was the big winner</a> in Italy's recent municipal elections. Most notably, Five Star's candidate for mayor of Rome Virginia Raggi won 67% of the vote, which is more than twice the vote share the mainstream center-left Democratic Party (PD) candidate got.And Europe has a bunch of other elections coming up. Days after the Brexit vote, the <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/r-spain-heads-towards-new-election-as-parties-rule-out-last-minute-deal-2016-4">Spanish will head to vote</a> again after elections in December failed to produce a government. And over the next year, the Netherlands, France, and Germany - <a href="http://uk.businessinsider.com/map-shows-far-right-growth-across-europe-2016-3">three major countries where far-right populist parties are growing in popularity</a> - will all have elections, too.Some analysts argue we could be looking at continued political uncertainty and limited coordination in Europe in the longer run. "Beyond the immediate risk events of the Brexit referendum and Spain election, geopolitical agenda remains in focus," wrote a Deutsche Bank research team in a note to clients, highlighting the upcoming elections, as well as the migrant crisis and Greece. "This backdrop makes policy progress very unlikely as domestic politics drive the agenda [leading to] limited room for country-level structural reform [and] little progress toward EU or eurozone reform or integration."The team added that "policy uncertainty is and will remain high," as illustrated in this chart showing that policy uncertainty in Europe is now around 2011-2012 levels during the height of the <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/the-eurozone-crisis-for-dummies-2012-5">Eurozone crisis:</a><div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table"><div><div class="image on-image">Deutsche Bank Research</div></div></div>Notably, these political tensions in Europe and the rise of populist parties seem to be at least partially correlated with citizens' perceptions of their country's importance on the global stage and economic stresses.Regarding the first point, there appears to be a correlation between Europeans who think their country should turn more inward and nationalistic and those who believe their nation's influence has declined over the last ten years, <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/europe-nationalism-chart-map-2016-6">according to data collected by Pew Research</a>.More respondents from Greece (65%), Italy (52%), France (46%), and the UK (40%) seemed to think that their nation plays a less important role in the world today than it did 10 years ago, rather than a more important role.Respondents from these countries were also highly likely to say that their nation should deal with its own problems and let other countries deal with their own problems as best they can - with Greece at 83%, Italy at 67%, France at 60%, and the UK at 52%."Against the backdrop of perceived decline in global stature many Europeans are looking inward," the <a href="http://www.pewglobal.org/2016/06/13/europeans-face-the-world-divided/">Pew Research team wrote</a>.<div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table"><div><div class="image on-image">Pew Research</div></div></div>As for the economic stresses, <a href="http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/world/fo-brexit-0617/article30508571/">in a great article for The Globe and Mail on the Brexit campaign being "just one symptom of angry nationalism",</a> Mark MacKinnon spoke with John Curtice, Britain's top expert on polling and public opinion, who noted that the divide between the Remain and Leave groups is "between the winners and losers of globalization."As MacKinnon wrote in the <a href="http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/world/fo-brexit-0617/article30508571/">article</a>:"Those in the Remain camp are younger and more cosmopolitan, and often have the education and the skill sets to compete in a borderless world - people who don't need to worry about losing their jobs to someone willing to work for less. The Leave camp, meanwhile, is older, less educated and more worried by the changes they see happening in British society."Relatedly, <a href="http://www.economist.com/sites/default/files/EconomistBrexitBriefs16.pdf">the Economist recently shared </a>a chart comparing the percentage of native and foreign born people aged 15 or older with tertiary, or college-level, education in various OECD countries. The data are from 2011, but it's notable that members of Britain's foreign-born population were more likely to have a tertiary education, which - excluding any prejudices employers might have towards migrants - suggests that less-educated native-born Brits might get bumped out of better jobs.And, for what it's worth, this type of situation can create a breeding ground for an "us versus them" mindset, adding to a country's political tensions and strife.Plus, although it's certainly not a perfect comparison, we're seeing something similar in the US as American workers who have been economically burned by globalization <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/protectionism-near-term-economic-problems-2016-5">have increasingly supported protectionism</a> and populist candidates such as Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders.<div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table"><div><div class="image on-image"><a href="http://www.businessinsider.com.au/chart-eurosceptic-political-parties-are-becoming-more-popular-across-europe-2016-6">Business Insider Australia</a></div></div></div>Another <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/finland-new-europe-problem-2016-6">interesting case is Finland</a>. The Northern European country is already one of the most developed, wealthiest in terms of <a href="https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/rankorder/2004rank.html">GDP per capita</a>, and <a href="https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2016/01/these-are-the-world-s-least-corrupt-nations-but-are-they-exporting-their-corruption/">least corrupt</a> countries in the world. However, its economic outlook is pretty muggy as it struggles with the collapse of Nokia, a dying paper industry, weak demographics, and its inability to adjust monetary policy to its specific needs because of its adoption of the euro.And so, although its economy won't collapse in on itself - and it's certainly not in a complete shambles like, say, <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/syria-economy-destroyed-2016-6">Syria</a> - peoples' living standards might not tremendously improve in the near future, and that could have implications for the eurosceptic movement going forward."Stagnating improvements to living standards will continue boosting a growing eurosceptic movement in Finland, even if an exit from the currency union is highly unlikely at any stage over the next decade," Michael Richards of BMI Research argued in a recent report.In sum, the political discontent surrounding the Brexit vote is not limited to the UK. Rather, it's a trend that's starting to bubble across the EU amid ongoing real and perceived economic and political stresses.And it doesn't seem like something that's going away anytime soon. <div class="margin-top"> <h3>NOW WATCH: <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/chick-fil-a-free-sandwiches-coupon-app-2016-6">Chick-fil-A is giving out free sandwiches - here's how to get one</a></h3> <div> <div> <div class="ooyala-video-player" data-video-autoplay="false" data-video-id="lhYjF2MzE6hUnCRVMXZNuFHnkG6nkjrp" data-player-variable="ooyalapopvideo" id="ooyalaplayer_popvideo" style="width:1280px;height:720px"></div> </div> </div> </div>

You Searched For "geopolitical stature" and got 6 results

Russia's invasion of Ukraine was a 'geopolitical earthquake' that defined 2022 and has transformed the world for years to come

John Haltiwanger

China's rapidly dwindling future will shape the world for decades to come

Linette Lopez

2022 huge year for US-India ties, 2023 to be even bigger: White House

PTI

China's first homemade icebreaker heads to the Arctic as Trump looks for 10 more of them from 'a certain place'

Christopher Woody

McKinsey held a lavish corporate retreat in Kashgar miles from where the Chinese government is imprisoning up to one million ethnic Uighurs

Rachel Premack

A Brexit is just the beginning of Europe's problems

Elena Holodny

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