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<ul class="summary-list"><li>Russia-Ukraine tensions could drive <keyword id="11895527" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="us-stocks" source="Orion">US stocks</keyword> down by about 20%, RBC Capital <keyword id="11893875" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="100" keywordseo="markets" source="Orion">Markets</keyword> says.</li><li>The analysts compared the market threat to the two Iraq wars or the US-China trade dispute.</li></ul>A Russian invasion of <keyword id="11985141" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="ukraine" source="Orion">Ukraine</keyword> could hammer <keyword id="11893878" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="stocks" source="Orion">stocks</keyword> in similar fashion to the two Iraq wars or the US-China trade war of 2018, analysts at RBC Capital Markets said, warning that investors are underestimating the threat.In the build-up to the first Gulf War in 1991, the <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/s&amp;p_500">S&amp;P 500</a> stock index tumbled 19.9%, and ahead of the Iraq War in 2003, it dropped 33.6%, RBC's analysts said in a note to clients Thursday. During the US-China trade war, stocks fell by 19.8%.RBC analysts, led by chief strategist Lori Calvasina, said they don't necessarily expect the same magnitude of decline today. However, they believe it's informative to look back at past periods of geopolitical crisis for insights into the current situation."It is useful to remember that the two Iraq wars were associated with peak-to-trough stock-market declines that resemble growth scares and recessions," they said. "Both drops occurred ahead of the actual conflict when tensions were building."The likelihood of <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-warns-it-will-cut-ties-with-us-if-putin-sanctioned-over-ukraine-2022-1">US sanctions</a> against <keyword id="11894337" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="russia" source="Orion">Russia</keyword> means the China trade war may provide the best point of comparison with Russia, Calvasina and colleagues wrote.However, they said it's also an imperfect comparison because Russia is a far less important trading partner to the US than China.Nevertheless, RBC said: "Geopolitical risk emanating from Russia/Ukraine is not priced into the US equity market, should conditions worsen, and will be a key issue to watch in the weeks and months ahead."Russia has amassed more than 100,000 troops around Ukraine, and the US has said the nation could <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/top-us-diplomat-lays-out-how-russia-will-attack-ukraine-2022-2?r=US&amp;IR=T">invade within days</a>. US stocks <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-news-russia-ukraine-war-sp500-nasdaq-dow-earnings-2022-2">dropped again on Thursday</a>, with the S&amp;P 500 down more than 8% from recent highs.Expectations that the Federal Reserve will hike interest rates <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-forecast-goldman-sachs-sp500-target-cut-fed-2022-2">faster than previously expected</a> have also rocked markets in 2022.The Ukraine crisis has injected yet more volatility. Investors are particularly worried that a war involving Russia, a major energy supplier, could push red-hot inflation even higher.However, many analysts on Wall Street have argued the selling has gone too far. In a note to clients this week, JPMorgan strategist Mislav Matejka said: "We believe there is further upside for stocks."JPMorgan found that equities typically fall in the first few months around an initial interest-rate hike. But they then tend to firm up three-to-four months later, and touch fresh all-time highs within six to 12 months.Read more: <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/investing-strategy-stocks-to-buy-analysis-outlook-volatility-bny-mellon-2022-2" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">An investment chief for BNY Mellon Wealth Management breaks down why he's expecting stocks to bounce back by 8 to 10% this year despite recent volatility — and shares 3 investing strategies to excel in the current mid-cycle bull market</a>

US stocks could tumble almost 20% on Russia-Ukraine tensions — and investors are being too complacent, RBC says

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Energy and <keyword id="11895968" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="metals" source="Orion">metals</keyword> prices stand to extend gains if ongoing tensions between <keyword id="11894337" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="russia" source="Orion">Russia</keyword> and Ukraine lead to supply shortages, analysts said. </li><li>Russia has been amassing thousands of troops near Ukraine's border for weeks. </li></ul>Prices for oil and metals stand to extend this year's gains on the back of a growing conflict between Russia and Ukraine that has also drawn in the US and its European allies. Fears that Russia will invade Ukraine have been mounting for weeks, contributing to the recent stock market volatility. The tensions ramped up sharply on signs of more escalation. Russia has been amassing thousands of troops and artillery at Ukraine's border. And the Pentagon has <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/pentagon-says-8500-troops-on-heightened-alert-amid-russia-ukraine-crisis-2022-1">put 8,500 troops on alert to deploy to Europe</a>, while US officials threaten dire consequences if Russia invades. The "uncertainty about the outcome of current tensions between Russia and Ukraine," has also been a source of downward pressure on equities, Mark Haefele, chief investment officer at UBS Global Wealth Management, said in a note published late Monday after US <keyword id="11893878" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="stocks" source="Orion">stocks</keyword> staged a remarkable swing higher. He noted that Russia's invasion of Crimea in 2014 had a limited effect on global <keyword id="11893875" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="100" keywordseo="markets" source="Orion">markets</keyword>. But key commodities face outsized exposure to a conflict.Oil and GasRussia is a top producer of oil. Prices for <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price">Brent crude</a> and <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price?type=wti?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest">West Texas Intermediate crude</a> recently marched up highs not seen since October 2014 as fears of a war grow.Haefele said "disruptions to oil and gas supplies, at a time when the supply-demand balance in the market is already tight, could trigger much higher prices in the short-term and disrupt global economic activity." <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/oil-price-outlook-russia-ukraine-tensions-150-per-barrel-supply-2022-1">Brent oil prices could soar to $150 a barrel</a> during the first quarter if an eruption in tensions between Russia and Ukraine leads to a supply shock, economists at JPMorgan said last week. Russia is also a major supplier of natural gas. Western nations have threatened sanctions if Russia invades Ukraine. And a suspension of the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline is possible, which could trigger cuts in gas to Europe, Thomas Hempell, head of macro &amp; market research at Generali Investments, said in a Tuesday note. MetalsMeanwhile, platinum group metals, notably palladium, were poised to gain from the geopolitical tensions, said HSBC. "Russia is the world's largest exporter of palladium and second-largest exporter of platinum, and even a low probability of trade interruptions is bullish," James Steel, chief precious metals analyst at HSBC, said in a note last week. Palladium prices have climbed about 15% this year through mid-Tuesday and platinum has advanced by nearly 7%.The ongoing tensions have also supported haven demand for gold, and silver has recently pressed higher, he added. GrainsRussia is the biggest exporter of wheat in the world, and Ukraine is projected to be No. 4 in wheat and No. 3 in corn exports, according to <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/ukraine-crisis-markets-reaction-idCNL8N2U51KK">International Grains Council data cited by Reuters</a>. The two countries, along with Kazakhstan and Romania, also ship grain from ports in the Black Sea, which could be a major flashpoint as the US faces off against Russia.

Here's how Russia-Ukraine tensions are contributing to market volatility as the threat of war in Europe looms over investors

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Brent <keyword id="11896879" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="oil" source="Orion">oil</keyword> could soar to $150 if a supply shock materializes from Russia-Ukraine tensions, JPMorgan said Friday. </li><li>A surge to $150 a barrel would be a 100% jump from the $75 average price in Q4 2021. </li></ul>International oil prices could soar to $150 a barrel during the first quarter of 2022 if an ongoing conflict between <keyword id="11894337" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="russia" source="Orion">Russia</keyword> and <keyword id="11985141" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="ukraine" source="Orion">Ukraine</keyword> leads to a supply shock, economists at JPMorgan said Friday. The projection arrived as Brent oil so far this year has leapt about 12%, trading at near seven-year highs as strong demand for the commodity is outstripping global supply. Brent during Friday's session fetched close to $88 a barrel. "The latest geopolitical tensions between Russia and Ukraine raise the risk of a material spike this quarter," JPMorgan economists Joseph Lupton and Bruce Kasman wrote in a research note. "That this comes on the back of already elevated inflation—running at a multi-decade high last quarter—and a global economy that is being buffeted by yet another wave of the COVID-19 pandemic adds to the near-term fragility of what is otherwise a fundamentally strong recovery." For weeks, Russia <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/biden-suggests-russia-no-punishment-minor-ukraine-invasion-wh-clarify-2022-1">has been amassing thousands of troops and artillery at Ukraine's border</a>. Ukraine and the US have warned of an imminent invasion but Russia has repeatedly claimed it's not planning an invasion. An adverse geopolitical event between Russia and Ukraine would materially disrupt oil supply, with JPMorgan's scenario envisioning a "quick" 100% surge in Brent oil over one to two quarters to $150 a barrel from the average price of $75 a barrel from a supply shock. The bank estimated such a jump would require a a "sharp" cut of 2.3 million barrels a day in oil output, or roughly a 2% drop in total global supply. "Given that this would be solely a negative supply shock, the impact on output is to reduce global GDP by 1.6%," based on JPMorgan's general equilibrium model, and global inflation could drive up to a rate of 7.2% in the first half of 2022 from 3%, among other estimates. There are two other channels through which a supply shock could damage global growth, the investment bank said. The first would stem from repercussions of a Russian intervention in Ukraine."The US, coordinating with allies, would likely impose sanctions on Russia. While the possibilities vary widely in scope, they will likely impact negatively on sentiment and global financial conditions." Secondly, JPMorgan said its estimates incorporate the "realized behavior" of major central banks over the past two decades whereby oil price shocks related to geopolitical turmoil have been perceived to pose a greater threat to economic growth than inflation. "Against the backdrop of a year of already elevated inflation and extremely accommodative policies, central banks may display less patience than normal—particularly in [emerging markets], where rising global risk aversion may also place downward pressure on currency values."

Oil could jump to $150 a barrel this quarter on the back of an 'adverse supply shock' from Russia-Ukraine tensions, JPMorgan says

<a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/better-capitalism"></a><div type="image" title="Ray Dalio" height="1667" width="2500" msid="80909501" hostid="261"></div><ul class="summary-list"><li>Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Associates, seeks a bird's eye view of the market and the economy.</li><li>To get that perspective, Dalio has been reading works by <keyword id="216746" type="PERSON" weightage="60" keywordseo="Henry-Kissinger">Henry Kissinger</keyword>.</li><li>Former secretary of state and diplomat Kissinger is known for books "World Order" and "On China."</li></ul>Ray Dalio, founder of the hedge fund Bridgewater Associates, has built his billion-dollar career on making predictions on companies, the market, and the economy.To make the right predictions, he needs a bird's eye view of the world's financial and geopolitical happenings."We are like ants preoccupied with our jobs of carrying crumbs in our minuscule lifetimes instead of having a broader perspective of the big-picture patterns and cycles," he wrote in a blog <a href="https://www.principles.com/the-changing-world-order/">post</a>. In a <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/ray-dalio-warning-capitalism-american-dream-inequality-economics-billionaire-2021-2">wide-ranging interview with Insider</a>, Dalio shared that he spends a good amount of his time reading and learning to get the right perspective. Over the years, he's recommended <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/ray-dalio-book-recommendations-for-college-students-and-investors-2019-8#the-upside-of-inequality-how-good-intentions-undermine-the-middle-class-by-edward-conard-14">over a dozen books to read</a>, ranging from works by the Dalai Lama to titles by best-selling financial author Michael Lewis. So what's he reading right now?If you looked at Dalio's bookshelves, you'd find a number of books by Henry Kissinger, politician, diplomat, and geopolitical consultant who served as Secretary of State and national security advisor under Presidents Richard Nixon and Gerald Ford."[Kissinger] is a practitioner. He himself has sat in those shoes for all of those years. He's not being theoretical. He's not one of those studies of history. He actually had to be in the middle of it," Dalio said.The former secretary of state, who's 97, is the author of over a dozen books including most recently "<a href="https://www.amazon.com/World-Order-Henry-Kissinger/dp/0143127713">World Order</a>," published in 2014 and "<a href="https://www.amazon.com/China-Henry-Kissinger/dp/0143121316">On China</a>," published in 2011.<div type="image" title="Former US Secretary of State Henry Kissinger holds the laudatio for German Chancellor Angela Merkel who receives the &quot;Henry A Kissinger prize&quot; at the American Academy in Berlin on January 21, 2020." height="1681" width="2525" msid="80909502" hostid="261"></div>In the world of diplomacy, Kissinger is lauded by many for his policy of "détente," easing strained relations through conversations, with the then-Soviet Union, and for opening US-China relations. However, others point out his role in <a href="https://www.vox.com/2016/5/9/11640562/kissinger-pentagon-award">controversial national policies</a> such as the US's support for Pakistan during the Bangladesh War despite an unfolding genocide and helping end the Vietnam War in 1973 despite furthering it as national security advisor for years beforehand. A complex figure, Kissinger's writings have been bestsellers and acclaimed by many in diplomacy for offering both an inside view of his decisions under Nixon and Ford and the kind of complexity that Dalio prizes. His writing style can sometimes provide a bird's eye view of history.For example, when "World Order" came out, Michiko Kakutani, former Pulitzer-prize winning chief book reviewer of the New York Times, <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2014/09/09/books/in-world-order-henry-kissinger-sums-up-his-philosophy.html">wrote</a>: "At its best, his writing functions like a powerful zoom lens, opening out to give us a panoramic appreciation of larger historical trends and patterns, then zeroing in on small details and anecdotes that vividly illustrate his theories."The 2014 bestseller argues that the concept of world order has consistently changed based on which region of the world was the most powerful, and the book seeks to answer how the world can build an international world order in an era of conflict, rapid technological advance, and ideological extremism.In his second most recent book, "On China," the diplomat gives an overview of the East Asian country's history from a foreign policy perspective. It also offers an inside view of what went into Nixon's historic trip to Beijing in 1972. Its last chapter focuses on China's future, specifically as it relates to the US.In it, he warns of potential conflict between the two powers."The United States does need to get tough with China. If China has its way, it will keep robbing the United States and American companies of their technology and intellectual property," he wrote.Since then, he's been an even louder advocate for the need to resolve mounting tensions between the US and China, a topic that deeply concerns Dalio."We will slide into a situation similar to World War I," Kissinger warned in a <a href="https://www.marketwatch.com/story/kissinger-says-us-china-must-cease-escalating-threats-or-we-will-slide-into-a-situation-similar-to-world-war-i-2020-10-07">2020 panel</a> discussion if relations don't ease.For Dalio, the former secretary of state's predictions are deeply informative."You don't get a person who really knows history, and really has lived history as a practical decision maker and is clear and articulate - you don't get many of those," Dalio said.

Ray Dalio reveals why Henry Kissinger is his favorite author right now

<ul class="summary-list"><li>The relationship between Trump and Putin has long been a source of controversy.</li><li>Analysts say Trump could broker a Ukraine peace deal on terms favorable to Russia.</li></ul>With only a month to go before the presidential election, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-touts-russia-army-history-justify-deal-putin-over-ukraine-2024-9">Donald Trump's relationship with Russian President Vladimir Putin</a> has once again come under the spotlight.In a forthcoming book, journalist <a target="_blank" rel="" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/bob-woodward-trump-unparalleled-danger-democracy-president-2022-10">Bob Woodward</a> says that the former president and Putin have a closer friendship than previously known.According to <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-putin-woodward-book-secret-covid-tests-seven-calls-2024-10">excerpts</a> published by CNN and the Washington Post on Tuesday, Trump sent Putin COVID testing devices in early 2020 for his personal use.The book also says that Trump may have had up to seven phone calls with Putin since leaving office in 2021, citing a Trump aide.The Trump campaign denied the report, with spokesman Steve Cheung claiming it is "the work of a truly demented and deranged man who suffers from a debilitating case of Trump Derangement Syndrome."The Kremlin on Tuesday<a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/donald-trump-vladimir-putin-covid-testing-devices-phone-calls-kremlin-rcna174632"> said </a>that Russia received the COVID-19 testing kits, though added that Russia sent kits to the US in return. It denied <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/kremlin-says-trump-sent-putin-covid-tests-pandemic-denies-calls-2024-10">the seven calls that Woodward said Trump had with Putin.</a>While speculation and criticism about Trump's relationship with Russia's autocratic leader are nothing new, they are taking on a new significance amid the possibility of a second Trump presidency.<h2 id="ca1622e9-b987-46c8-878b-d263ec452e14">The Trump-Putin relationship</h2>Only weeks before Trump took office after his presidential victory, his administration-in-waiting was rocked by the publication of a dossier prepared by a former British spy.The report said that the Kremlin had secured compromising information that it could use to blackmail Trump.Trump's legal team said the dossier contained inaccurate information and that it breached his data protection rights.A subsequent inquiry by Special Counsel Robert Mueller found no evidence of coordination between Putin and the Trump campaign.<div type="image" title="Robert Mueller, who headed the FBI for 12 years, speaks into a microphone." height="2316" width="3500" msid="114090479" hostid="261" sizebytes="235904"></div>Throughout his presidency, however, Trump appeared friendly toward Putin and was reluctant to criticize Russia over reports of interference in the 2016 US presidential election.Trump has continued to praise Putin for being <a target="_blank" rel="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-praised-smart-putin-us-stupid-country-2022-2">"smart" </a>and<a target="_blank" rel="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/donald-trump-vladimir-putin-ukraine-invasion-justification-genius-savvy-2022-2"> "genius"</a> after he began his unprovoked invasion of Ukraine."I'd say that's pretty smart. He's taking over a country – really a vast, vast location, a great piece of land with a lot of people, and just walking right in," Trump <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://x.com/american_bridge/status/1496682759208775683?s=21">said</a> in 2022.<h2 id="8940f3b3-81cf-4fcd-b657-4036ec84ba83">A Ukraine deal</h2>The US, under President Joe Biden, has provided billions in aid to Ukraine to battle the invasion launched by Russia in 2022, which the president has characterized<a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/biden-normandy-d-day-ukraine-unchecked-tyranny/"> as a fight between</a> the forces of democracy and tyranny.Yet Trump has questioned why the US is helping Ukraine defend itself and had urged Republicans in Congress to block a Ukraine aid bill earlier this year, resulting in Ukraine suffering ammunition shortages.He has claimed that he'd be able to swiftly negotiate a peace deal between Ukraine and Russia if he became president.And though he's offered few details on how, a peace plan suggested by his running mate, JD Vance, on a podcast <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://thehill.com/opinion/international/4884798-the-trump-vance-plan-for-ukraine-is-insane/">in September indicates </a>that it'd involve Ukraine ceding the territory Russia holds and pledging neutrality.Trump could hypothetically compel Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to agree to the deal or face US aid being cut off.Critics say it's a deal that would likely delight the Kremlin and infuriate US allies in Europe and beyond. It could also come back to haunt the US.<h2 id="8ad46fa4-95d4-47d5-919b-551c0fc2121b">There could be catastrophic consequences</h2>Philip Ingram, a former UK military intelligence officer, told Business Insider that a Trump deal with Putin that involved ceding Ukrainian territory could have catastrophic effects."I think if Trump forces Zelenskyy into a peace deal where he has to give up any territory, then that will stimulate the start of World War Three, and it will happen within a relatively short period of time," he said."And the economic impact that that will have across the globe will be enormous."The Ukraine war has already roiled markets for food, oil, gas, and other products, and wider conflict could have an even more devastating impact.Economist Kenneth Rogoff in an article for <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/fandd/issues/2022/03/the-long-lasting-economic-shock-of-war">The International Monetary Fund</a> warned that the war is worsening "rising inflation, extreme poverty, increasing food insecurity, deglobalization, and worsening environmental degradation."William Pomerantz, an analyst at the Wilson Center in Washington, DC, told BI a deal would hugely damage US alliances."Trump believes that he can end the war in Ukraine in a week, but that would require conceding to all of Putin's demands," he said."That would essentially end our alliance with Europe and our international credibility."<h2 id="62871981-d67f-4884-a229-94adfdbc3ed3">Empowering China</h2>Some Republicans, including Vance, say the US needs to shift its stance away from helping Ukraine battle Russian aggression toward the more urgent threat they say China poses.Yet analysts <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/vance-trump-wants-us-focus-china-russia-one-big-problem-2024-7">told BI in July </a>that China's threat is closely linked to Russia's, with Putin and fellow Chinese autocrat Xi Jinping having formed a pact to weaken US global dominance.A Russian victory in Ukraine would likely embolden Xi to launch an invasion of US ally Taiwan, said Ingram.<div type="image" title="Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping talking." height="3452" width="5402" msid="114090480" hostid="261" sizebytes="395676"></div>If Xi believes that the West has "given in" regarding Russia's invasion of Ukraine despite the money and diplomatic effort spent trying to defeat Russia, "we would very quickly see his invasion of Taiwan," he said.European leaders have also issued stark warnings that Russia, emboldened by its territorial victory in Ukraine, could seek to attack a NATO state in as little as five years.Spiralling conflicts in Asia, Europe, and the Middle East would have a devastating economic impact.<a target="_blank" rel="" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/stocks/jpm-stock">JPMorgan</a> CEO Jamie Dimon warned last month that investors are overlooking geopolitcal tensions as key risk that could significantly weaken the global economy."Geopolitics is getting worse, they are not getting better. There is chance for accidents in energy supply. God knows if other countries get involved. You have a lot of war taking place right now," Dimon told <a target="_blank" rel=" nofollow" class="" href="https://www.cnbc.com/2024/09/24/jpmorgan-ceo-jamie-dimon-warns-geopolitics-is-getting-worse.html">CNBC-TV18</a> during a visit to India.Dimon said that if geopolitical tensions elevate to instability and conflict, it will drag down the stock market in a way that pales in comparison to prior market crashes.<h2 id="cccccb09-431b-470e-9b1b-e688d2ce7308">Trump's words and actions differ</h2>Ingram pointed out that there has in the past been a gap between Trump's words and actions, and questioned whether Trump would be willing to risk the economic blowback on the US of canceling Ukraine aid, with arms manufacturing firms in swing states such as Pennsylvania massively boosted by the Congressional aid bills."What we're hearing from him, from a political perspective, but what he'd actually practically do will be different," said Ingram.It is also unclear Trump would continue to impose sanctions on Russia if he becomes president."It's much harder to predict him on that stuff," William Reinsch, a senior advisor at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, told <a target="_blank" href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/tough-u-s-sanctions-packages-are-here-to-staywhether-its-harris-or-trump-11f884ba">The Wall Street Journal</a> in August. "I would say [he is] sort of inconstant. He tends to veer from one thing to another.'"Either way, Trump will have to deal with economic problems at home, including record debt levels and surging interest payments.Trump's economic plans are estimated to raise the federal debt level by double the figure expected if Kamala Harris is elected, according to a <a target="_blank" href="https://www.crfb.org/sites/default/files/media/documents/CRFB_US%20Budget%20Watch%202024_The%20Fiscal%20Impact%20of%20the%20Harris%20and%20Trump%20Campaign%20Plans_Final_10062024.pdf">report</a> out this week.Harris would add $3.5 trillion to the projected fiscal debt through 2035, while Trump would add $7.5 trillion, the <a target="_blank" href="https://www.crfb.org/papers/fiscal-impact-harris-and-trump-campaign-plans">Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget</a> analysis said."Our large and growing national debt threatens to slow economic growth, boost interest rates and payments, weaken national security, constrain policy choices, and increase the risk of an eventual fiscal crisis," it added.If elected for a second term, Trump has pledged to purge the US government of those he deems disloyal to his agenda if reelected and could surround himself with loyalists rather than career officials seeking to check his more impulsive decisions.Pomeranz said that Trump's policies in a second term would more openly reflect his admiration for Russia's leader, regardless of the US' economic plight."Putin is the autocratic leader that Trump most admires," he said. "Trump will present any end of hostilities [in Ukraine] as a personal victory, and Putin will validate this."

Trump's close relationship with Putin could come back to haunt the US

<div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table"><div><div class="image on-image">NICOLAS ASFOURI/AFP/Getty ImagesA security guard keeps watch at the entrance of the Huawei global headquarters in Shenzhen in China's southern Guangdong province on December 18, 2018.</div></div></div><ul class="summary-list"><li>After watching China's vision of a global digital future with Huawei at its heart <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com.au/category/huawei">get torn down piece by piece</a> over the last few months, the tech giant's chair has emerged from his Shenzhen stronghold to profess Huawei's innocence.</li><li>Chairman Ken Hu told reporters in Shenzhen, China's southern tech metropolis, that the world's biggest supplier of telecommunications equipment was a victim of "ideology and geopolitics." His remarks come after Huawei was barred from some of the world's biggest next-generation network markets.</li><li><a href="https://www.apnews.com/67158817f4984221b49cb92ad6f88781">The Associated Press</a> reports that Hu challenged governments like Australia, New Zealand and the United States, that have effectively excommunicated Huawei from engaging with their domestic communications infrastructure, to make public the security risks that the tech giant exposes.</li></ul>After watching China's vision of a global digital future with Huawei at its heart get torn down piece-by-piece over the last few months, Huawei has emerged from the comfort of its stronghold in Shenzhen a wounded company.Huawei chairman Ken Hu told reporters in Shenzhen, China's southern tech metropolis, that the world's biggest supplier of telecommunications equipment was a victim of "ideology and geopolitcs."<a href="https://www.apnews.com/67158817f4984221b49cb92ad6f88781">The Associated Press</a> reports that Hu challenged governments like Australia, New Zealand and the United States, that have effectively excommunicated Huawei from engaging with their domestic communications infrastructure, to make public the security risks that the tech giant exposes.Huawei, which <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/huawei-surpassed-apple-as-the-worlds-second-largest-smartphone-maker-2018-8">overtook Apple in August</a> to also become the world's second-largest smartphone manufacturer, has had a few good days to get its public relations ducks in a row, but Hu knows his hands are tied.First, the founder's daughter remains on bail in Canada awaiting extradition to the United States.From November, Huawei has been in the <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com.au/us-asks-allies-to-shun-huawei-china-tech-2018-11">crosshairs of various arms</a> of the US government, culminating in the arrest of <a href="https://www.thisisinsider.com/huawei-meng-wanzhou-trump-china-trade-war-2018-12">CFO Sabrina Meng Wanzhou</a>, limiting Huawei's responses - although two Canadian executives have since been detained in China.And then there is Huawei's enormously high stake as a leader in fifth-generation networks currently rolling out around the world.The allegations that Huawei is a forward operating arm of the Chinese state, while light on evidence, goes a long way to scuttling its future as a global player in a hugely advantageous and sensitive technology that promises both billions of dollars and enormous influence.According to the AP, Hu complained that isolating Huawei from this next generation of network infrastructures was going to cost everyone a lot in money and innovation.Foreign journalists were invited to Huawei's HQ in Shenzhen as the first attempt from management to explain away the telecom giant's predicament - one that really ramped up in August when <a href="https://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/huawei-ban-stirs-fears-of-china-backlash/news-story/7eea72a3222fbc806ecf49761a71f2d5">Australia publicly announced</a> its intention to block Huawei from its 5G networks.New Zealand quickly followed suit, while Japan last week reviewed its supply stream for government procurement, joining the US and Taiwan which have blocked Huawei outright, while France, Germany, and Britain are considering Huawei's future in their own networks.The AP said that Hu asked government to show their cards and provide evidence, but the future for Huawei's global expansion appears to already be set. Western networks are pretty much off the table.<h2>Any shelter from the storm?</h2><div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table"><div><div class="image on-image">Guo Xianzhong/NFDSB/VCG via Getty ImagesSHENZHEN, CHINA - MAY 20: (CHINA OUT) Water cascades down from a bridge on May 20, 2009 in Shenzhen of Guangdong Province, China. A rainstorm hit Shenzhen Wednesday and affected drainage system and traffic.</div></div></div><a href="https://www.aspi.org.au/">Danielle Cave</a>, Deputy Head at the International Cyber Policy Centre (ICPC) from the Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI) says Huawei's free hand in exporting China global vision of a digital future has come to an abrupt halt."This is a landmark moment for Huawei, and the writing has been on the wall for a while now and this year that writing has been in bold." Cave said that from here on out Huawei will struggle to make headway in developed countries that care about national security and cybersecurity."However, the concerns being articulated about Huawei, and about some of its peers, won't be felt as strongly in developing countries whose national security concerns will be less important than their need for affordable and reliable telecommunications and technology equipment that will help connect their populations.Unless alternative solutions can be offered by other development partners, this is an understandable trade-off that will continue to occur. Huawei is a Chinese tech trailblazer. But its founder's previous life as a People's Liberation Army major has served to emphasize the doubts that surround its sovereignty as an independent commercial enterprise.While Hu says its equipment has never been a security threat, the same cannot be said for its <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com.au/top-spy-explains-huawei-ban-2018-10">relationship with the party-state.</a>President Xi Jinping's vision of a China led by the Communist Party that he chairs, is a global technocracy and one that raises valid concerns about security, espionage and, perhaps <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/how-china-is-watching-its-citizens-in-a-modern-surveillance-state-2018-4">above all, surveillance.</a>Hu told reporters that Huawei standing apart from the state (and cybersecurity) are top priorities."Huawei's record on security is clean, despite the efforts in some markets to create fear about Huawei," Hu said,"We are proud to say that our customers continue to trust us."But the fact is a new law passed last year <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Furphy">calls those statements into question</a>.Read more: <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com.au/chinas-xi-backpedals-on-made-in-china-2025-us-trade-huawei-pressure-2018-12">China's Xi takes humiliating loss to US on trade and Huawei - but Trump could be getting played</a>China's 2017 national intelligence law - combined with other security and espionage laws - show an intent to leverage companies like Huawei and individuals like Meng Wanzhou into intelligence activities, whether they want to or not."One passage of this new law actually compels organisations and individuals 'to support, provide assistance and cooperate in national intelligence work, and guard the secrecy of any national intelligence work that they are aware,'" Cave told Business Insider."By continuing to engage in aggressive cyber-enabled economic espionage and IP theft and by introducing expansive intelligence laws, the CCP is hampering its own 'digital vision' by making it virtually impossible for Chinese companies to expand internationally without attracting understandable and legitimate suspicion.""Eventually the Chinese state will have to make a choice. What is more important? Espionage or commerce? Because unfortunately, the two don't go hand in hand," Cave said. <div class="margin-top"> <h3>NOW WATCH: <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/bee-swarm-ny-nypd-elite-bee-cop-2018-11">Here's what happens when thousands of bees invade Times Square</a></h3> <div> </div> </div>

A timid Huawei has emerged amid its global PR storm to see what's left for it to salvage

<div class="image-container float_right" style="width:400px"><div class="image"></div><a href="http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:British_55th_Division_gas_casualties_10_April_1918.jpg">Wikimedia Commons</a>British 55th Division gas casualties, April 10, 1918</div><keyword id="1738334" type="PERSON" weightage="60" keywordseo="Art-Cashin">Art Cashin</keyword>, UBS Financial Services Director of Floor Operations, has been <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/art-cashin-biography-2012-7">working on Wall Street</a> for over 50 years.
But in a new interview with <a href="http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2013/4/5_Art_Cashin_-_Aftermath_of_Cyprus,_Fear,_Contagion_%26_Crisis.html">Eric King of King World News</a>, Cashin reveals that he often thinks about an event that happened long before he began his career: <keyword id="69917" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="World-War-I">World War I</keyword>.
Today, he's reminded of it because of all of the complacency he sees in the markets despite tremendous geopolitcal tensions.
Here's Cashin's response to a question about what concerns him most:
“I’m still concerned about <keyword id="130126" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="geopolitics">geopolitics</keyword>. Here in this business I have learned that the story which seems to be buried on page 13 can sometimes almost instantly rocket its way on to page 1, and rocket its way to everyone’s attention. But perhaps the greatest concern I have, Eric, is that there is a kind of complacency. 
There seems to be an almost palpable belief around the world that cooler heads will prevail. Someone will step in and stop this from happening. And while it happened even before I began my 50 year career, I’ve long been a student of history, both financial and geopolitical, and I think back to World War I when everyone on both sides knew that such a war would be unwinnable, would be distasteful, but managed to walk into it believing that logic would prevent the guy on the other side from making a fatal mistake.
So whether it is exercises in Korea or economic changes in Europe, the idea that rational men will prevent irrational crises doesn’t live up to world history.” 
Cashin also shares his thoughts on the recent events in Cyprus. Read about it at <a href="http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2013/4/5_Art_Cashin_-_Aftermath_of_Cyprus,_Fear,_Contagion_%26_Crisis.html">KingWorldNews.com</a>.

ART CASHIN: It's During Times Like These I Think About How World War I Started

<div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table float_right"><div><div class="image on-image"></div></div></div>Sir Martin Sorrell, CEO of the world's largest <keyword id="35666" type="COMPANY" weightage="100" keywordseo="advertising">advertising</keyword> holding group WPP, made the bold statement on the company's third quarter earnings call Friday that its <a href="http://www.appnexus.com/press-release/wpp-xaxis-and-appnexus-announce-strategic-transaction">$25 million investment in adtech company AppNexus </a>earlier this year leaves rivals like Publicis Groupe and Omnicom with "nowhere to go."
The deal saw WPP take a huge stake in the hottest tech startup in New York to help Sorrell's company better compete with Facebook and Google in the online advertising space.
On paper it appeared to be a huge bargain as WPP invested $25 million in cash for a 15% stake in AppNexus, which at the time was <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/appnexus-90-million-investment-values-at-12-billion-2014-8">valued at $1.2 billion following a series of funding rounds</a>. But the deal also comes with the implicit understanding that WPP will continue to funnel its clients' ad money through AppNexus and a newly created Xaxis for Publishers Unit (which AppNexus acquired from WPP as part of the deal.) It's similar to the deal WPP cut with social media marketing platform Buddy Media, <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/heres-wpps-profit-on-the-sale-of-buddy-media-2012-10">on which WPP made a huge profit when the company was sold to Salesforce.</a> Salesforce went on to offer "volume-based incentives" to WPP's larger ad clients because Buddy was the ad group's preferred partner.
Sorrell said he prefers these kind of deals with adtech businesses (or the "application of technology" companies as he calls them) rather the simply "plonking down a couple of billion dollars in xyz company and the feeling that you might control the application of that technology," because that would be "too risky and dangerous." Instead he believes the injecting some cash and working in a partnership is more flexible and brings together its media and data businesses much closer together.
He also said it now means there is "no other agnostic platform" between Google's Double Click and Facebook's Atlas on the market, which leaves rival advertising holding groups in a quandary.
He added that the partnership caused a "considerable amount of consternation and disruption" in the industry. Sorrell revealed rival Publicis Groupe had been trying to cut a deal with AppNexus in Europe, a discussion that has now ended, and Omnicom "would very much like to establish a relationship with AppNexus," which it now can no longer do. 
Sorrell suggested strength of Google's Double Click business and the potential rise of new competitors was also one of the reasons Facebook "<a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/introducing-atlas-facebooks-plan-to-tackle-google-doubleclick-2014-9">accelerated" the launch of its Atlas advertising platform</a> to give it a "countervailing force" to go to battle with in the increasingly competitive adtech market.
WPP beat analysts' estimates on revenue growth for the third quarter, but posted slightly lower than expected net sales, which it blamed on ongoing geopolitical tensions making clients more cautious and a slowdown in the global economy. Like-for-like net sales were up 3% year on year to £2.41 billion ($3.8 billion, below estimations of 3.3%) and like-for-like revenue (which WPP strips out due to the way it books some of its income) grew 7.6% to £2.76 billion.
While missing estimates, WPP was ahead of rivals' recent reported like-for-like revenue growth. <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/omnicom-ceo-john-wren-on-the-shift-from-tv-to-digital-advertising-2014-10">Omnicom reported 6,5% growth in its Q3 earnings</a> while <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/publicis-groupe-q3-results-2014-10">Publicis reported 1% revenue growth</a>. 
The company's Q3 performance was buoyed by its advertising and media investment management division, which posted growth of 17.1% year on year. The UK was the geographical region marking the strongest revenue growth and the second strongest net sales (10.2% and 3.7% lifts respectively.) In North America, revenues grew 7.8%, while net sales were at 2.3% - slower than in the first half of the year.
WPP's results often serve as a barometer of the health of the wider global economy - if advertisers are spending, it usually means the economy is going through a purple patch too.
In the results statement WPP said clients appear to be more confident than they were in 2008 but they "broadly remain unwilling to take further risks, particularly given multiple geopolitical flash points."
On the earnings call, Sorrell listed out a number of what he terms "swans" - both known and unknown geopolitcal events that pose risks to businesses and the wider macro and micro economy. More recent developments include the Ebola crisis, the rise of ISIS and the effect of recent demonstrations in Hong Kong on China.
"If China sneezes, we all catch cold," Sorrell said.
 WPP detailed all the swans in this slide below:
<div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table"><div><div class="image on-image"></div></div></div>

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