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India's GDP is expected to grow at 7.8 per cent in FY2022-23, said RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das on Thursday. In a statement after the Monetary Policy Committee's bi-monthly meet, Das said the real <keyword id="44910" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="gdp-growth" source="Orion">GDP growth</keyword> is projected at 17.2 per cent in Q1FY23, at 7 per cent in Q2; at 4.3 per cent in Q3 and Q4 at 4.5 per cent. "In India, real GDP growth at 9.2 per cent for 2021-22 takes it modestly above the level of GDP in 2019-20. Private consumption, the mainstay of domestic demand, continues to trail its pre-pandemic level," he said. "The persistent increase in international commodity prices, surge in volatility of global financial markets and global supply bottlenecks can exacerbate risks to the outlook." On Thursday, RBI retained its key short-term lending rates during the sixth and final monetary policy review of FY22. Further, the growth-oriented accommodative stance was retained to give a push to economic activity. In addition, the RBI's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) maintained the repo rate, or short-term lending rate, for commercial banks, at 4 per cent. SEE ALSO: <a target="_blank" class="c-link c-message_attachment__title_link" href="https://www.businessinsider.in/finance/news/home-loans-will-remain-cheap-for-a-little-longer/articleshow/89473251.cms">Home loans will remain cheap for a little longer</a> <a target="_blank" class="c-link c-message_attachment__title_link" href="https://www.businessinsider.in/stock-market/news/nykaa-share-price-slips-as-steep-fall-in-profit-disappoints-investors/articleshow/89469029.cms">Nykaa slips 4% as steep fall in profit disappoints investors</a>

India's GDP is expected to grow at 7.8% in FY23, says RBI

New Delhi [India], March 27 (ANI): After S&amp;P Global, <keyword id="19977638" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="morgan-stanley" source="keywords">Morgan Stanley</keyword> has revised its <keyword id="44910" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="gdp-growth" source="Orion">GDP growth</keyword> forecast upwards for the financial year 2024-25 (FY25) to 6.8 per cent, up from its previous estimate of 6.5 per cent. The firm also revised its growth forecast for the ongoing financial year, FY24, to 7.9 per cent. The revised projections come in the wake of an optimistic outlook on India's economic trajectory, with Morgan Stanley highlighting the country's strength and stability as hallmarks of the current cycle. The firm anticipates a shallow easing cycle in monetary policy, driven by continued traction in industrial and capital expenditure activities. According to Morgan Stanley, the outlook for India's GDP growth remains robust, with the expectation that growth will track around 7 per cent in the fourth quarter of the financial year 2023-24 (QE Mar-24). This growth momentum is expected to be broad-based, with the gaps between rural-urban consumption and private-public capital expenditure narrowing in FY25. The firm also anticipates a favourable inflation trajectory, with recent trends indicating a softening in headline inflation. Food inflation, which carries significant weight in the CPI basket, has moderated, providing relief from supply-side shocks. Furthermore, core inflation has seen meaningful moderation, driven by easing in supply chains and subdued price pressures. Looking ahead, Morgan Stanley expects headline inflation to average 4.5 per cent in FY25, down from 5.4 per cent in FY24, while core inflation is projected to remain muted at 4.1 per cent. The firm anticipates a continuation of supply-chain normalisation along with easing commodity price pressures, contributing to the disinflation trend. Despite the positive economic outlook, Morgan Stanley highlights potential risks stemming from global factors and domestic uncertainties. Slower-than-expected global growth, higher commodity prices, and tighter global financial conditions pose risks to India's growth and macroeconomic stability. Domestically, factors such as central elections and changes in policy mix warrant close monitoring. (ANI)

Morgan Stanley raises India's GDP growth forecast to 6.8% for FY25

The <keyword id="44910" type="PERSON" weightage="20" keywordseo="GDP-growth">GDP growth</keyword> in India after 2014 is a highly significant topic that seems to have been impacted by a number of factors. The BJP government headed by Prime Minister Narendra Modi came to power in May 2014 following a thumping victory in the Lok Sabha general elections. Four years after the government assumed the power, the <keyword id="6356076" type="DEFINITION" weightage="20" keywordseo="indian-economy">Indian economy</keyword> was found to have slipped back to the same state matching with what it was a year before the new government took charge. GDP reports from 2014 onwards During the financial year 2018, India’s GDP growth had slowed down to 6.7% when compared to what was recorded in the previous year as 7.1%. This figure was almost on par with the 6.6% GDP growth reported in the financial year 2014, just before the Lok Sabha elections were held. Hence the figures show the pace of growth of GDP under Narendra Modi government was the slowest. However, during 2015 and 2016, the GDP growth touched 7.3% and 8 % eventually slipping down in 2017 and 2018. The reasons for the slip in GDP growth after 2014 Tracing the reasons for the slow growth of GDP, the finance experts put the blame on a few policies of the government. The demonetization implemented by the Narendra Modi government affected a large number of businesses. Especially small businesses were the ones to suffer much. The scenario following 2016 also saw a large number of job losses across multiple industry domains. The government also introduced the GST (Goods and Service Tax) in July 2017 which was considered a massive reform by the BJP government. Though the move was heralded by many as a vital measure to regulate and systematize the taxation procedures, the implementation was not that easy. There were riddles of problems to solve and the implementation happened in a haphazard manner that also led to the slowing down of the GDP growth. Yet another area that contributed to the slowing down of GDP growth after 2014 is the private investments segment. In fact, this had been a major challenge to the country’s economy. Over the 12 months ending with March 2018, India had scrapped a large number of projects which was said to be an all-time high in terms of number and volume. This fact has been reported in the report published by the Center For Monitoring Indian Economy. The report card for the whole year does not look encouraging enough. Recovery and a quick surge in GDP growth Though the ride had been bumpy over the past four years after 2014, the Indian economy managed to be labelled as the fastest growing economy of the world in 2018. The World Bank has forecasted that India’s economy is all set to grow at a rapid pace than the other major economies of the world. Now India economy is the third largest in Asia and the trends seen at present can move Indian economy to the upper slots in the years to come. A significant recovery in private instruments and a strong growth in the consumption of goods and services in the private sector is expected to fuel the growth of Indian economy over the next few years.

What is the growth of GDP after 2014

For amusement, I checked out the WSJ opinion page comments on the Q4 GDP report. As usual, the WSJ opinion is pure politics - but it does bring up an excellent point (that the WSJ conveniently ignores). First, <a href="http://www.wsj.com/articles/another-growth-dip-1422662756">from the WSJ</a> opinion page:

This period of low growth isn't "astonishing." First, usually following a recession, there is a brief period of above average growth - but not this time due to the financial crisis and need for households to deleverage. So we didn't see a strong bounce back (sluggish growth was predict on the blog for the first years of the recovery).
And overall, we should have been expecting slower growth this decade due to demographics - even without the housing bubble-bust and financial crisis (that the WSJ opinion page missed).
One simple way to look at the change in GDP is as the change in the labor force, times the change in productivity. If the labor force is growing quickly, GDP will be higher with the same gains in productivity. And the opposite is true.
So here is a graph of the year-over-year change in the labor force since 1950 (data from the BLS).
<div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table"><div><div class="image"></div></div></div>The data is noisy - because of changes in population controls and the business cycle - but the pattern is clear as indicated by the dashed red trend line. The labor force has been growing slowly recently after declining for some time.
We could also look at just the prime working age population - I've pointed out before the that prime working age population has just started growing again after declining for a few years (see <a href="http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2014/11/update-prime-working-age-population.html">Prime Working-Age Population Growing Again</a>) Now here is a look at GDP for the same period.
<div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table"><div><div class="image"></div></div></div>The GDP data (year-over-year quarterly) is also noisy, and the dashed blue line shows the trend. 
GDP was high in the early 50s - and early-to-mid 60s because of government spending (Korean and Vietnam wars). As in example, in 1951, national defense added added 6.5 percentage points to GDP. Of course we don't want another war ... Now lets put the two graphs together.
<div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table"><div><div class="image"></div></div></div>It isn't a surprise. Other than the early period with a boost from government spending, the growth in GDP has been tracking the growth in the labor force pretty well. The difference in growth between the dashed blue and red lines is due to gains in productivity.
The good news is that will change going forward (prime working age population will grow faster next decade). The bad news is the political hacks will continue to ignore demographics.
Right now, due to demographics, 2% GDP growth is the new 4%. <div class="feed-footer-wrapper"><div class="feed-footer">

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Because of changing demographics, 2% GDP growth is the new 4% GDP growth

A day before the official release of India's Gross Domestic Product (<keyword id="35050" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="GDP" source="Orion">GDP</keyword>) figures for <keyword id="21593310" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Q1-FY25" source="keywords">Q1 FY25</keyword>, a report by <keyword id="20548750" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Anand-Rathi" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="Anand Rathi" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="Anand Rathi">Anand Rathi</keyword> research estimates the GDP to grow by 7 per cent, primarily driven by the robust performance of the services sector. The financial advisory firm also maintains its full-year <keyword id="19972825" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="GDP-growth" source="keywords">GDP growth</keyword> projection at 7 per cent, though it warns of potential downside risks. Utilities GVA is expected to rise by 11.5 per cent, while the construction sector has slowed due to election-related disruptions and the impact of heat. The mining sector remains strong, supported by increased coal production. The services sector is expected to be the primary driver of GDP growth in Q1 FY25. Despite reduced <keyword id="20155204" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="government-spending" source="keywords">government spending</keyword> ahead of the elections, which is likely to dampen growth in some service sectors, financial, real estate, and professional services are expected to have performed well. This performance is attributed to strong market activity and credit growth. However, the trade and transport sectors present a mixed picture, with some indicators showing improvement while others remain moderate. Overall, Services Gross Value Added (GVA) is expected to grow by 8.2 per cent in Q1 FY25. As per the report, Investment was a key growth driver in FY24, fuelled by government infrastructure projects and a real estate upswing. However, the momentum appears to have slowed in Q1 FY25 due to pre-election restrictions. Despite this, the report predicts a significant rise in government capital expenditure in the coming months, supported by greater budget allocations. The report highlights the changing dynamics of private consumption in India. FY24 saw weak consumption, especially in rural areas, with final consumption expenditure growing by just 3.8 per cent. However, as FY25 begins, there are signs of a rural revival. Indicators such as increased two-wheeler sales and improving Fast-Moving Consumer Goods (FMCG) volume growth signal a rebound in rural demand. In contrast, urban demand continues to show signs of sluggishness. The muted sales of passenger vehicles, weaker retail credit transfers, and flat Goods and Services Tax (GST) collections underscore this trend. While consumption is not expected to see a significant rise in Q1 FY25, the outlook for the remainder of the year appears positive. This optimism is bolstered by anticipated higher agricultural output and sharper government focus on rural areas. The agriculture sector is expected to post a subdued growth of 2.1 per cent in Q1 FY25, affected by scorching heat and uneven rainfall last year, which led to lower reservoir levels and hindered farming activities. However, the outlook is more promising for the remainder of the fiscal year, with better rains and improved sowing conditions expected to boost agricultural output Additionally, a rebound in stamp duty collections suggests buoyant real estate sales. Private capital expenditure, which was previously subdued, is expected to expand in FY25, driven by rising capacity utilisation and strong order books. The industrial sector, which grew by 9.5 per cent in FY24, is expected to see a shift in growth drivers in Q1 FY25. The focus is now moving towards utilities and mining, with manufacturing growth slowing. While government infrastructure projects and private capital expenditure will continue to support industrial growth, the global growth slowdown poses potential risks.

Anand Rathi anticipates Q1 FY25 GDP growth at 7%, a little lower than RBI's estimate of 7.1%

The Northeast is failing to pull its weight in America's economic recovery story.
<a href="11:41%20http://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/regional/gdp_state/gsp_newsrelease.htm">New BEA data show</a> the growth in the region was practically non-existent last year. Between New England and the "Mideast," real GDP averaged 1%. Washington DC contracted 0.5%, and growth in Maryland went nowhere. 
Every other region of the country saw growth of at least 1.5%, with the Mountain West (or "Rocky Mountain" region) topping all at 4.1%.
Last bit to note: Alaskan GDP shrank 2.5%. <a href="https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&amp;rct=j&amp;q=&amp;esrc=s&amp;source=web&amp;cd=6&amp;cad=rja&amp;uact=8&amp;ved=0CC0QFjAF&amp;url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.businessinsider.com%2Fmajor-decline-in-alaska-oil-production-2013-8&amp;ei=YXqYU-6MOpHMsQTBpYKgBg&amp;usg=AFQjCNGerRJfchjgKehJ7RpTpzPm5a0pEQ&amp;sig2=CcAzhuikKfjfBTaLMgF9kA&amp;bvm=bv.68693194,d.cWc">We warned last year</a> that Alaska was getting left behind by the shale boom, and this seems to indeed be reflected here. 
<div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table click-to-enlarge"><div><div class="image"><a title_source="BEA" title_caption="" class="zoomin" href="https://static-ssl.businessinsider.com/image/53987980eab8ea952e491171-960/gsp_0614.png"></a><a href="http://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/regional/gdp_state/gsp_newsrelease.htm">BEA</a></div></div></div>
Bonus chart: regional real GDP comparisons by recent years. It sure looks like whatever growth the shale boom has left in it, it will never surpass what Texas and the rest of the Southwest were able to extract out of it in 2012.
<div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table click-to-enlarge"><div><div class="image"><a title_source="BEA" title_caption="" class="zoomin" href="https://static-ssl.businessinsider.com/image/5398798069bedd9957e9535d-960/gsp_0614b.png"></a><a href="http://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/regional/gdp_state/gsp_newsrelease.htm">BEA</a></div></div></div>

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India's GDP is expected to grow at 7.8% in FY23, says RBI

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Anand Rathi anticipates Q1 FY25 GDP growth at 7%, a little lower than RBI's estimate of 7.1%

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