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Domestic <keyword id="44023" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="airlines" source="Orion">airlines</keyword> industry is expected to fly back into profitability next fiscal, for the first time since the outbreak of <keyword id="8764262" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="covid" source="Orion">Covid</keyword>, amid easing cost pressures and reduction in leverage to support credit profiles, a report said on Wednesday. As per the report by <keyword id="15318654" type="TOPIC" weightage="60" keywordseo="Credit-Rating" source="TOPIC" sourcekeytype="mutual-fund,budget,investopedia" meta.keywordsubtype="null" meta.seopath="c/credit-rating" meta.entityname="Credit Rating" meta.hostid="153" meta.entityid="credit-rating">credit rating</keyword> agency <keyword id="6359483" type="DOMAIN" weightage="20" keywordseo="crisil" botkeyword="" source="ET" sourcekeytype="COMPANY" meta.keywordsubtype="EQ" meta.aliasname="crisil" meta.entityname="Crisil Ltd." meta.entityid="11303" meta.seoname="crisil-ltd">Crisil</keyword>, the industry is also likely to pare its net loss by as much as 75-80 per cent year-on-year to Rs 3,500-4,500 crore this fiscal, compared with around Rs 17,500 crore last fiscal. Strong recovery in passenger traffic and easing cost pressures are supporting this turnaround in operating performance of airlines, Crisil said. The projections are based on <keyword id="183985" type="General" weightage="80" keywordseo="crisil-ratings" source="Orion">Crisil Ratings</keyword> <keyword id="15319469" type="TOPIC" weightage="60" keywordseo="Analysis" source="TOPIC" sourcekeytype="mathematics,investopedia" meta.keywordsubtype="null" meta.seopath="a/analysis" meta.entityname="Analysis" meta.hostid="153" meta.entityid="analysis">analysis</keyword> of three airlines that account for around 75 per cent of domestic air traffic. Domestic and international passenger traffic recovered to 90 per cent and 98 per cent, respectively, in the nine months through December this fiscal, compared with the corresponding period of fiscal 2020 (pre-pandemic). Business and leisure travel rebounded strongly even as international scheduled services resumed, it said and added that the festival season has accelerated recovery in the second half. This pace is likely to be maintained next fiscal, as the Indian economy remains resilient in the face of global headwinds, Crisil Ratings said. The removal of fare caps is also helping airlines pass on cost increases, it added. "Next fiscal, we expect passenger traffic to cross the pre-pandemic level and pricing to remain higher by 20-25 per cent over those levels. Consequently, airlines are expected to clock 25-30 per cent <keyword id="15308831" type="TOPIC" weightage="60" keywordseo="Revenue" source="TOPIC" sourcekeytype="business,investopedia" meta.keywordsubtype="null" meta.msid="92973114" meta.seopath="r/revenue" meta.entityname="Revenue" meta.hostid="153" meta.entityid="revenue">revenue</keyword> growth next fiscal vis-a-vis pre-pandemic," said <keyword id="2458345" type="General" weightage="50" keywordseo="gautam-shahi" source="Orion">Gautam Shahi</keyword>, Director, Crisil Ratings. That along with expected moderation in average aviation turbine fuel prices will drive a significant turnaround in operational performance of airlines, enabling them to become profitable next fiscal, <keyword id="214311" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="shahi" source="Orion">Shahi</keyword> noted. Profitability will also be aided by lower interest costs, driven by debt reduction owing to privatisation of a large airline in the last quarter of previous fiscal, it said. Moreover, better operating performance and expected equity infusions would keep airlines' <keyword id="10926" type="DOMAIN" weightage="20" keywordseo="reliance" botkeyword="" source="ET" sourcekeytype="COMPANY" meta.keywordsubtype="EQ" meta.aliasname="reliance" meta.entityname="Reliance Industries Ltd." meta.entityid="13215" meta.seoname="reliance-industries-ltd">reliance</keyword> on debt (excluding lease liabilities) limited over the near-to-medium term. Kshitij <keyword id="6367260" type="General" weightage="50" keywordseo="jain" source="Orion">Jain</keyword>, Associate Director, Crisil Ratings, said: "The aviation sector is also likely to raise equity of Rs 8,000-10,000 crore over the next two fiscals, which will be utilised towards increasing fleet size and revamping the existing fleet." This will provide a much-needed boost to the capital structure, he said. Consequently, dependence on incremental debt (excluding lease liabilities) for airlines would remain limited over the near-to-medium term, as a major part of recent large fleet purchase orders by airlines is expected to be received from fiscal 2026 onwards, and thus support their credit profiles, according to Jain. The rating agency, however, noted that a timely infusion of equity, a debt contracted for capex towards fleet expansion and a resurgence of Covid-19 cases due to the spread of any new virus strains will remain key monitorable. SEE ALSO: <a target="_blank" class="c-link c-message_attachment__title_link" href="https://www.businessinsider.in/business/news/mcdonalds-india-north-east-aims-to-hire-1500-employees-from-ngos-by-2025/articleshow/98334922.cms">McDonald's India - North &amp; East aims to hire 1500 employees from NGOs by 2025</a> <a target="_blank" class="c-link c-message_attachment__title_link" href="https://www.businessinsider.in/tech/news/indian-tech-sector-growth-slows-in-fy23-ceos-cautiously-optimistic-nasscom/articleshow/98335133.cms">Indian tech sector growth slows in FY23, CEOs cautiously optimistic: Nasscom</a>

Domestic airlines industry expected to fly back into profitability next fiscal: Crisil

Mumbai, May 6 () The operating profitability of domestic sugar mills is expected to decline by 150-300 basis points (bps) to 7.5-9.5 per cent due to reduction in industrial usage of sugar, lower demand for ethanol, and fall in exports following the ongoing crisis of COVID-19 pandemic, Crisil Ratings said. The COVID-19 pandemic is expected to exert a downward pressure on credit quality of sugar mills by eroding operating profitability and shoring up debt in FY21, Crisil Ratings said in a report. "The expected decline in operating profitability of millers this fiscal is despite sugar production declining by a fifth in the current sugar season. Sugar millers could thus be looking at operating profitability of 7.5-9.5 per cent in the current fiscal, down from 9-12.5 per cent in the last fiscal," Crisil Ratings Director Gautam Shahi said. One of the reason for decrease in profitability is the expected reduction in industrial usage, which accounts for nearly two-thirds of the annual demand of 26 million tonne, as several food manufacturing units -- including soft beverages, chocolates, confectionery, bakeries, hotels, restaurants and cafes -- are either shuttered or running at low capacities, it said. As a result, overall domestic demand is expected to be lower by 1.5-2 million tonnes in the current sugar season, as reflected in softening prices over the past few weeks, it added. The second reason is that the oil marketing companies would reduce ethanol offtake because the lockdown has lowered demand for fuel. Besides, they have limited storage capacity available and production of potable alcohol from ethanol would also be impacted because demand from distillers would have declined, the report said. Also, international sugar prices have fallen by 23 per cent between January and April as large supplier nations, including Brazil, are switching from ethanol to sugar due to slack global oil demand and low crude oil prices. Thus, exports from India are likely to remain flattish compared with a 25-30 per cent growth expected earlier, it added. Crisil Ratings further said that India had started the current sugar season (October 1, 2019 – September 30, 2020) with an opening stock of 14.5 million tonnes. However, despite 20 per cent lower production, the closing inventory is likely to be high at 12.8-14 million tonne, which is equal to six months' consumption, because of slack industrial demand and exports, it added. The saving grace for domestic sugar mills is the minimum selling price of Rs 31 per kg fixed by the government. If not for it, sugar realisations would have fallen further, given the high stocks, and led to a sharper decline in profitability, the report said. "The current sluggishness in sales due to the pandemic will push up inventories, resulting in elevated debt levels this fiscal. "This, coupled with lower profitability, will moderate the ratios of cash accruals to total debt and interest coverage to 0.09 time and 1.6 times from 0.13 time and 2 times, respectively, in fiscal 2020–21, indicating downward pressure on credit metrics," Crisil Ratings Associate Director Kiran Kavala sdid. SM RVK

Domestic sugar mills' operating profitability to dip 150-300 bps in FY21 on decline in demand, exports: Crisil Ratings

<ul class="summary-list"><li>A second <keyword id="8763838" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="covid-19">COVID-19</keyword> wave is devastating <keyword id="3658" type="COUNTRY" weightage="60" keywordseo="India">India</keyword>, where a new "double mutant" virus variant emerged.</li><li>Insider spoke with people on the ground and experts about the threat and ways to address it.</li><li>Politicians so far have largely been unwilling or unable to apply strict restrictions.</li></ul>Hospitals in India are overwhelmed as the country grapples with a second wave of COVID-19.There is a severe shortage of beds, the drug remdesivir, and medical oxygen. Desperate patients have been traveling hundreds of miles, searching helplines and social media, to find hospitals with enough capacity. The worsening situation forced British Prime Minister Boris Johnson this week to cancel a visit to the country. The UK and the US have also issued strong travel advisories for India.On Saturday, when 261,394 new cases were reported in the country, Prime Minister Narendra Modi <a href="https://twitter.com/ndtv/status/1383419909128933377?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1383419909128933377%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_c10&amp;ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.bloombergquint.com%2Fcoronavirus-outbreak%2Fhope-and-heartbreak-on-indian-covid-twittertter">boasted</a> about the size of his election rally in West Bengal, where a huge crowd was crammed together.Rallies have taken place in West Bengal and three other states, with thousands attending, without much adherence to COVID-19 precautions.This reflects how dramatic India's turnaround has been with the coronavirus. Early this year, experts hypothesized that this country of 1.3 billion people had reached herd immunity as cases steadily fell. The government's own modeling study suggested the country's outbreak would be over by February. In January, a health minister <a href="https://www.livemint.com/news/india/india-has-flattened-covid-19-curve-no-new-cases-in-one-fifth-of-country-govt-11611824857809.html">said</a> India had "successfully contained" COVID-19.Weddings, functions, and political rallies resumed as politicians encouraged a return to normal.Now, India has more than 2 million known active cases, compared with 200,000 in January. Daily reported cases are three times as high as the peak of the first wave in September, with 314,835 announced on Thursday.<div type="image" title="COVID Daily cases India graph" height="2400" width="3400" msid="82202329" hostid="261"></div>A "double mutant" variant - which contains notable mutations that had been separately identified in two previous variants of the original virus - has taken hold.Insider spoke with people on the ground about the extent of devastation this wave has caused as well as the constant challenge of enforcing restrictions at mass gatherings."Things have worsened this time around," said Dr. Sonali Vaid, who previously worked for the World Health Organization and is now helping patients find beds in New Delhi."Many patients with severely low oxygen-saturation levels have had to manage at home, some with dire consequences, due to lack of beds," Vaid added. "Things weren't as bad last year."Despite this, the country's largest religious gathering went ahead. The centuries-old Kumbh Mela sees tens of millions of Hindu pilgrims travel to bathe en masse in rivers in a ritual meant to cleanse them of their sins. It has brought millions this month to Haridwar, north of Delhi."The flow and blessings of Ma Ganga" - Mother River Ganges - "will ensure that coronavirus does not spread," said the chief minister of Uttarakhand, the northern state where the event is taking place for all of April.The <a href="https://scroll.in/latest/992233/kumbh-mela-cant-be-compared-to-nizamuddin-markaz-claims-uttarakhand-cm">government</a> shortened the event from four months to one and insisted it was following Health Ministry guidelines on containing the coronavirus - such as mandatory negative test results and discouraging older, more vulnerable people from taking part.But Deepak Rawat, a government official who runs the event on behalf of the state government, said these were impossible to enforce during the days of Shahi Snan, or royal bath, when devotees bathe in the Ganges.<div type="image" title="Shahi Snan April 12 2021 water bathing" height="2595" width="3900" msid="82202332" hostid="261"></div>On a single day, an estimated 2.1 million pilgrims were taking part, most of them neither wearing masks nor socially distancing."Enforcing COVID-19-appropriate behavior during these processions would be a folly, and we would be risking a stampede," Rawat told Insider.A senior official at the festival <a href="https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20210416-top-seer-at-india-religious-mega-festival-dies-from-covid-19">told AFP</a> on Friday that they had "around 2,000 positive cases" in the previous four days. That week a senior priest was taken to a hospital from the site and died after a positive test.Facing a backlash, Modi later tweeted appealing for the Kumbh Mela to be scaled back.Dr. T. Sundararaman, the global coordinator for the health-activism network People's Health Movement, said the Kumbh Mela should have been restricted in line with religious ceremonies elsewhere like the annual Islamic pilgrimage to Mecca."What you now have is a runaway celebration with a great potential to act as a superspreader event," he added.In Lucknow, the capital of Uttar Pradesh, which neighbors Uttarakhand to the south, <a href="https://www.indiatoday.in/coronavirus-outbreak/video/rows-of-burning-pyres-in-lucknow-authorities-place-barricades-around-crematoriums-1791333-2021-04-15">videos</a> emerged of crematoriums full of rows of burning pyres, raising fears official figures were missing many who were dying without having been tested.The double-mutant variant of the virus that emerged in the country, B.1.617, may be behind the surge in cases.Authorities don't yet have the data to prove this, though the variant has mutations that were found in others to make them more transmissible and less likely to confer immunity on people who recover, said Gautam Menon, a physics and biology professor at Ashoka University."This wave is far more transmissible than the first one," said Dr. Lancelot Pinto, a consultant in respiratory medicine at P. D. Hinduja Hospital in Mumbai, which was badly hit during both waves.During the first wave, it was common for only one or two members in a family to be infected, but Pinto said he was seeing entire families testing positive now."We are getting many younger patients - those in their 30s and 40s - with moderate to severe disease," he said, adding: "This could be because of the new strain or just because of the sheer numbers of infection this time."<div type="image" title="Public meeting" height="2656" width="3992" msid="82202334" hostid="261"></div>Vaccination has offered other countries a glimmer of hope, but while India has been able to vaccinate millions of people in a single day, only about 8% of its enormous population have had a first dose so far.<a href="https://www.livemint.com/news/india/covid19-at-current-vaccination-pace-india-won-t-reach-70-coverage-until-yearend-11618797627025.html">At its current pace</a>, India would not vaccinate 70% of its people until December. It has authorized Russia's Sputnik V for use, amid severe shortages of Covishield and Covaxin, which are made domestically.Two political parties campaigning in West Bengal have called off rallies, while Modi's Bharatiya Janata Party <a href="https://www.hindustantimes.com/elections/west-bengal-assembly-election/bjp-limits-rallies-to-500-people-in-west-bengal-amid-surge-in-covid-19-cases-101618844234707.html">decided </a>this week to limit its rallies to 500 people, two days after the prime minister boasted about the size of his crowds. The Kumbh Mela is continuing until the end of the month.In a Tuesday public address, <a href="https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/pm-modi-to-address-nation-on-covid-19-situation-at-8-45-pm-today-live-updates-101618929630164.html">Modi said lockdowns</a> should be only a "last resort" because of the damage they would do to workers' livelihoods. He said making everyone over 18 eligible for vaccination starting in May would ensure laborers were inoculated sooner.He asked states to focus instead on containing specific sites of outbreaks.Delhi began a weeklong lockdown on Monday - closing businesses and ordering people to travel only for essential reasons - saying the city's health system had reached a "tipping point." Maharashtra, the worst-affected state, is severely restricting travel until the end of the month.Dr. Srinath Reddy, the president of the Public Health Foundation of India, who sits on national committees on COVID-19 management, said that for six weeks the country should ban gatherings of more than five people and require masks to be worn outdoors - the type of measures the country eschewed when it thought it was all over.

Indian politicians encouraged a return to normal as COVID-19 cases fell. Now hospitals are overwhelmed as a 'double mutant' variant takes hold - but mass gatherings continue.

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Domestic airlines industry expected to fly back into profitability next fiscal: Crisil

PTI

Domestic sugar mills' operating profitability to dip 150-300 bps in FY21 on decline in demand, exports: Crisil Ratings

PTI

Indian politicians encouraged a return to normal as COVID-19 cases fell. Now hospitals are overwhelmed as a 'double mutant' variant takes hold - but mass gatherings continue.

Swagata Yadavar

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