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<ul class="summary-list"><li>Oil and gas prices will likely fall under Trump's proposed tariffs, a Bank of America strategist said.</li><li>He said tariffs will lead to a trade war, dampening demand and prices in the process.</li></ul>Oil and gas prices are set to fall amid an onslaught of steep tariffs under Donald Trump, according to Bank of America strategist Francisco Blanch.Blanch says the president-elect's proposed tariffs will likely curb global trade, driving down oil and gas prices in the process."America first means commodities second, and I think we kind of start from that point," he said in a Monday interview with Bloomberg Television.Trump has floated proposals of sweeping <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/global-reaction-donald-trump-election-victory-tariffs-trade-disputes-2024-11">tariffs</a> of 10% to 20% on all countries, with the exception of <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-stimulus-trump-us-election-tariffs-chinese-economy-trade-war-2024-10">China</a>, where the US would impose steeper duties of 60%. As those tariffs heighten trade tensions, that could slow economic growth and lead to higher inflation and interest rates, dampening demand and prices, Blanch's comments suggest.That could have an impact on production, too, Blanch says.In theory, Trump's deregulatory stances and <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/biden-trump-climate-policies-ev-subsidies-renewables-fossil-fuel-drilling-2024-7?utm_medium=social&amp;utm_campaign=business-sf&amp;utm_source=facebook&amp;fbclid=IwY2xjawGoeZpleHRuA2FlbQIxMQABHfLoB8Cl3sA7ngI6j0XqTGKOlLQQq9ktKNJV9_yySewhWgslJ6LnmWQFXg_aem_oIAve7xxBu3McHKWflkroA">pro-fossil fuel</a> views should boost production. Throughout his campaign, Trump promised to lower energy prices by boosting <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-lower-gas-prices-exxonmobil-ceo-oil-boom-2024-11">US oil production</a>, saying, "We will frack, frack, frack and drill, baby, drill," at a rally in Detroit last month."I will cut your energy prices in half within 12 months," he added.But if prices are lower amid sweeping tariffs, that could mean production slows, too, as producers see less incentive to accelerate drilling, Blanch says."In America, prices determine how much output producers ultimately pull out of the ground, and I think the bigger risk to prices really is coming from tariffs. We have potentially a trade war here," he said, adding that <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/stock-market-outlook-recession-fears-jump-trump-trade-war-tariffs-2024-11">trade war</a> is the main downside risk to demand globally.<a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/us-oil-opec-crude-production-record-oil-prices-commodity-market-2024-11?_gl=1*4rar5l*_ga*MTY3OTgyNjg0MS4xNzIxMDE2MDM2*_ga_E21CV80ZCZ*MTczMTk1ODgyNS40MjAuMS4xNzMxOTU5NDEwLjIxLjAuMA..">US oil production</a> is also already historically high, reaching 13.4 million barrels a day in August to hit a new all-time monthly high.There are also some upside risks to commodity prices, Blanch acknowledges.He points to geopolitical tensions, including those in the Middle East and Ukraine. During his first term, Trump employed strict sanctions on Iran and Venezuela, and with Marco Rubio appointed as Secretary of State, that could bring such policies back, Blanch says."He's an anti-Iran, anti-Venezuela hawk. I think that could have an impact," he said, implying that stricter sanctions on those countries could drive up prices."Whatever happens to those geopolitical events that we're going through right now I think will also determine the path," he added.

'America first means commodities second': Oil and gas prices will tank under a Trump presidency, BofA strategist says

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Trump has criticized Harris and Biden over gas prices.</li><li>But gas prices are falling, challenging his narrative.</li></ul>Former President Donald Trump has been using gas prices to attack Vice President Kamala Harris.In a recent email blast, Trump said fuel prices had "soared, making commuting and travel more expensive." At a rally in Iowa in December, Trump claimed gas prices had soared up to $8 a gallon, which fact-checkers quickly dismissed as false.The cost of gas has long been a key issue for voters, who — despite global events like war or political instability in oil-rich countries abroad — typically blame high prices on whoever is in the White House. So, it's a well-rehearsed political maneuver for a challenger to attack an incumbent over the cost of gas.Despite Trump's exaggerations, he's not entirely wrong. Gas prices have risen in recent years. They hit a high of about $4.93 a gallon in mid-2022, according to data from the US Energy Information Administration, which assembles and analyzes data from the US government. That high came just months after Russia invaded Ukraine in February of that year, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/ukraine-russia-war-americans-are-reeling-from-high-gas-prices-2022-3">causing fuel prices to spike</a>.But, a month before the election, gas prices are falling, upending Trump's attack strategy. Gas prices have declined steadily for the last five months, in fact, according to the American Automobile Association. Andrew Gross, a spokesperson for AAA, said that trend is likely to continue."There are now 10 states with gasoline averages below $3 a gallon, which means thousands of retail outlets east of the Rockies are selling gas at similarly low prices," Gross said in a press release, which noted that gas demand is low, as is the current cost of oil at about $70 per barrel.The national average price for a gallon of gas was $3.30, a 6-cent decline from the previous week, AAA said.

Falling gas prices are yet another blow to the Trump campaign

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Iran launched a massive ballistic missile strike on Israel on Tuesday.</li><li>Israel has vowed to retaliate, potentially against Iran's oil infrastructure.</li></ul>Israel has vowed to respond to <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/irans-ineffective-strike-on-israel-intended-to-cause-massive-damage-2024-10">Iran's massive ballistic missile strike</a> earlier this week, and it may have Iranian oil production facilities in its sights.Such a move <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/oil-price-outlook-israel-iran-geopolitics-middle-east-war-crude-2024-10?_gl=1*4tz29s*_ga*MTA1MjU1Njk3Ni4xNzE1MzY2MDU4*_ga_E21CV80ZCZ*MTcyODA0OTQxNy4zNTQuMC4xNzI4MDQ5NDIzLjU0LjAuMA">could prompt a spike in oil prices</a>, which are already surging after the attack and in anticipation of Israeli retaliation. Such an outcome could create a headache for Vice President Kamala Harris' presidential campaign in the final weeks before the pivotal election.Historically, presidents in office when gas prices surge don't fare well. Political scientists have found that a rise in gasoline prices is correlated with a drop in presidential approval. Incumbents or their party don't usually fare well when viewed unpopularly. Fairly or unfairly, Americans blame the president when it costs more to fill up, even if the events causing a price spike are out of their control.Analysts say that, for now, all sides have incentives to avoid taking actions that could further destabilize the region."I think there is still a little bit of stability in an unstable world; it wasn't like Russia's invasion of Ukraine," Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy, told Business Insider."The Middle East is really critical," he said, "but there's a lot of pressure on both sides to have this not escalate into a war. I think it would be really exceptional to see this escalate out of control."De Haan pointed to how oil markets responded to Iran's attack in April, spiking briefly before going back down. The major concern this time around is that Israeli leaders seem to want a much larger response than what occurred in the spring."In April, we saw an extremely limited Israeli response, striking a single air defense battery in central Iran. This was meant as a message to Tehran that Israel can successfully target and destroy Iranian assets over long distances if necessary," Clay Seigle, a political risk strategist, told Business Insider. But in July, Israel destroyed an oil import terminal controlled by the Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen.While the attack had a limited impact on the Houthis, the message was clear to Iran, "highlighting the fact that oil assets are on the target list of Israeli planners. The message was repeated earlier this week with a second such Israeli attack on Houthi-controlled oil and energy facilities," Siegle said.<div type="image" title="Iranian oil facilities in Khark Island, including a stretch of white pipes leading towards the island, with a grey sky background." height="3791" width="5687" msid="113965878" hostid="261" sizebytes="1153196"></div>Analysts say a direct attack on Iranian oil refineries or larger unrest in the region would potentially affect shipping routes in the Straight of Hormuz.The market has been able to absorb concerns about past events. Kit Haines, a global crude analyst at Energy Aspects, said that fears about supply issues related to sanctions after Russia's invasion of Ukraine or the 2019 drone attack on Saudi Arabia's Abqaiq oil largely did not match the actual realities.Still, Haines said that this time, the concern is about broader potential unrest in the region."This time around, I think people are seriously worried," he said, explaining that "we have seen things go off in the Middle East before, but actually, there is a pretty sizeable potential here that it could impact supply. It's not necessarily about what any Israeli response will do, I think it is the secondary effects of that.<h2 id="8ca6c26e-88d6-4509-98a8-c81bef5e5f75">Israel has vowed to retaliate after Iran's massive attack earlier this week</h2><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/irans-missile-strike-israel-just-fraction-what-china-could-do-2024-10">Iran launched over 180 ballistic missiles on Israel</a> on Tuesday, likely the largest such attack in history, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/iran-attacks-israel-with-missiles-after-hezbollah-leader-killing-2024-10">in response</a> to Israel's killing Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah last week and Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh in July. Iran's targets were apparently mostly military and government installations, some of which are near or in densely populated central Israel.Israel, with help from US forces in the region, said it largely intercepted the attack, with the Biden administration saying that the strike was "defeated and ineffective." Although much is still unclear about the impact of the attack, some satellite imagery has shown Iranian missiles did hit Israeli military targets. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has vowed to retaliate with US support."The regime of Iran does not understand our determination to defend ourselves," Netanyahu said, adding that "they will understand. We will stand by the rule we established: Whoever attacks, we will attack them."<div type="image" title="A photo showing some of Iran's missiles flying down in the night sky above the cityscape of Jerusalem, Israel." height="3456" width="5184" msid="113965880" hostid="261" sizebytes="461002"></div>Speculation about which potential Iranian targets Israel could strike have shifted from Iran's nuclear production facilities to the country's vast <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.cnbc.com/2024/10/03/crude-oil-prices-today.html">oil production facilities</a>. Iran is a significant oil producer with major reserves and production capabilities.In the aftermath of the attack, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/dockworker-strike-hurricane-helene-israel-palestine-iran-supply-chains-inflation-2024-10">the price of oil has already surged up</a>, prompting concerns that, should the conflict broaden and potentially further entangle US forces in the region, oil and gas prices could skyrocket.Seigle said that market prices tend to "fluctuate in times of actual or feared supply shortages as traders re-price the value of an increasingly scarce commodity relative to demand," noting that supply disruption is related primarily to two factors: how much oil is offline and for how long.If Israel did strike Iran's oil, it would likely have two main targets. One is its oil refiners, which provide the country with transportation fuels and gasoline. The other is Iran's production and export facilities.If Israel hit even a few of its petroleum refiners, it "could create a gasoline fuel shortage in Iran," Seigle said. But that wouldn't necessarily impact the global oil supply. If Israel struck Iran's oil production and export facilities, that would have "far greater repercussions," he said. "A military operation that cuts this output would leave the world with less crude supply, causing prices to rise. This week, for the first time, markets finally began contemplating this scenario; oil prices have increased more than 5 percent as this risk begins to be 'priced in,' Seigle said.US President Joe Biden has weighed in on discussions surrounding what Israel's retaliation could look like. On Wednesday, Biden said the US wouldn't support Israeli strikes on sites related to Iran's nuclear program. Then, on Thursday, he said the US and Israel were discussing whether the US would support Israel striking Iran's oil facilities.Hours after Biden's comment, crude oil prices jumped 5%. The National Iranian Tanker Company also moved its tankers from Kharg Island's oil terminal in apparent fear of an imminent attack, per <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://x.com/TankerTrackers/status/1841895357434732660">TankerTrackers.com</a>, an independent online service that keeps tabs on the movements of crude oil.On Friday, Biden appeared to backtrack on his earlier targeting comments, telling reporters that if he were in the Israeli's shoes, he would consider alternate targets.<div type="image" title="Joe Biden" height="1333" width="2000" msid="113965877" hostid="261" sizebytes="117154"></div>The risk of the conflict expanding is high. Nicholas Carl, the researcher manager of the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.criticalthreats.org">American Enterprise Institute's Critical Threats Project</a> who focuses on Iran, explained to Business Insider that "throughout this entire series of events," there's been "extraordinary risk of miscalculations" for both sides.If the US did support striking oil facilities, it would come at odds with Washington's stance on Ukraine doing the same thing to Russia. Earlier this year, the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/ukraine-wont-stop-targeting-russias-oil-refineries-will-defy-us-2024-3">US urged Ukraine to cease its attacks on Russia's energy infrastructure</a>, warning its drone strikes could drive up global oil prices and provoke retaliation.At the time, Ukraine was using long-range attack drones to strike various Russian oil refineries, terminals, storage facilities, and depots, intending to hurt its production capacity. Russia is one of the world's largest energy exporters, although the US and its allies have imposed hefty sanctions on its industries.Washington's concerns came just as Biden began pushing his reelection campaign and before his historic dropout."US policymakers and politicians are more dedicated to Israel's security (and to showcasing this dedication) than they are to Ukraine's," Seigle said. Publicly, they're less likely to rein Israel in from those ambitions. Privately, though, Biden officials are "surely very concerned" about the impact of such a strike," he added.Israel and Iran hold "more potential to disrupt global markets and send prices surging than does the Russia-Ukraine war," Seigle said.<h2 id="f45eb6e9-e88e-489e-95a4-b2d1c7d08722">Few things are watched more closely than gas prices ahead of an election</h2><div type="image" title="Kamala Harris" height="4577" width="6865" msid="113965876" hostid="261" sizebytes="666498"></div>If Israel does target Iran's oil industry, the 2024 presidential election could be rocked by rising oil prices ahead of the majority of the voting.Oil prices had notably been trending downwards in the months prior to Iran's ballistic missile attack on Israel. Back in September, global oil prices fell to the lowest level in almost three years, and the US has seen a historic year of oil production.But if prices at the pump were to soar in response to upheavals abroad amid domestic concerns about issues like inflation, it could be a problem, as it has been historically. That said, the impact of changes like these has begun to lessen in this hyperpartisan era. It is increasingly less likely for a president's approval rating to swing dramatically.As of Friday, the national average was at $3.17 a gallon, according to GasBuddy. At the end of September, the average was down both on a month-to-month basis and on a year-to-year basis. Predicting gas prices can be difficult, given just how dramatically markets can shift, but De Haan said he did not expect prices to "skyrocket out of control.""I think there are some reasons why gas prices would remain in somewhat of a check, but if some of these boxes start getting checked at the same time, if there are significant escalations in the Middle East, and if there's a perfect storm in the US, a perfect hurricane knocking out refining capacity, it could still lead to a surge in price before Election Day," he said. "I just think the odds of a major surge are rather low."

Israel's strike back at Iran could hurt the Harris campaign in its final stretch if gas prices soar

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Deutsche Energy Terminal has been told to reject Russian LNG, according to The Financial Times.</li></ul>Germany is believed to have told its ports to reject Russian cargoes of liquefied natural gas in a bid to further isolate Vladimir Putin's energy industry.The country's economic ministry told the state-owned Deutsche Energy Terminal not to accept deliveries of Russian LNG, according to a letter dated November 6 obtained by the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.ft.com/content/94bb16b8-b4b1-4360-b7d0-cecca1ebffaa?accessToken=zwAGJtzDN_1YkdOUuxa4tLFDYNO30M7Moev_qg.MEYCIQClq2abFM5Kf3q6PR9Ry9NhImf-JYCu4Yh6Rh9BsTbqZgIhAPT3_uF_tz7M8QVY1Ev2iiCyzpSATlrHAOp2YMu48s9L&amp;sharetype=gift&amp;token=4d2150bc-286c-4fe0-9795-2102f9e6b9ca">Financial Times</a>.The letter was sent after the company was due to receive a Russian cargo shipment on Sunday at its import facility in Brunsbüttel, the FT said.It went on to say that the decision would protect Germany's "overriding public interests."The letter added that accepting the deliveries would defy the reason the German terminal was initially opened — to allow Germany and the EU to become "independent of Russian gas."It comes as the EU weighs up buying more LNG from the US when President-elect Donald Trump takes office in a bid to convince him not to impose high import tariffs on EU companies. Trump pledged on the campaign trail to impose <a target="_blank" rel="" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/global-reaction-donald-trump-election-victory-tariffs-trade-disputes-2024-11">a fresh era</a> of trade <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/global-reaction-donald-trump-election-victory-tariffs-trade-disputes-2024-11">tariffs</a>. He has vowed to impose a 60% tariff on goods imported from China and a 10% blanket tariff on all other goods entering the US.European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen said last week that she would consider replacing Russian LNG with more US imports as part of trade talks."We still get a lot of LNG from Russia, and why not replace it with American LNG, which is cheaper for us and brings down our energy prices," von der Leyen told reporters on Friday. "It's something where we can get into a discussion," she said, referring to the US's trade deficit with the eurozone, which reached <a target="_blank" rel="" class="" href="https://ustr.gov/countries-regions/europe-middle-east/europe/european-union">$131.3 billion in 2022.</a>"It would be in the interest of the US that Europe continues to shun Russian fossil fuels, given the US oil and gas industry has been one of the key beneficiaries of this move," wrote Warren Patterson, the head of commodities strategy at <a target="_blank" rel=" nofollow" class="" href="https://think.ing.com/articles/what-a-trump-presidency-means-for-oil-and-gas-markets/">ING,</a> last week.The EU — which previously relied on Russian energy — banned seaborne Russian crude imports and refined petroleum products following the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.As BI previously <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-oil-gas-energy-industry-europe-target-trump-election-win-2024-11">reported</a>, it has also cut most of its piped natural gas imports from Russia, replacing much of it with LNG from the US. The US is now a top exporter of gas to Europe, accounting for <a target="_blank" rel=" nofollow" class="" href="https://energy.ec.europa.eu/topics/carbon-management-and-fossil-fuels/liquefied-natural-gas_en">46% of the bloc's supply in 2023.</a>Germany hasn't imported LNG directly from Russia since the invasion. However, according to a Kpler report obtained by FT, the country's state energy group, Sefe, has a long-term contract to import Russian LNG via France.In a statement to Business Insider, a spokesperson for Germany's economic ministry said it wouldn't comment on "possible leaked documents.""It is correct that Germany does not import Russian gas and it is also clear to the Ministry of Economic Affairs and Climate Action that this must not happen via German LNG terminals," the spokesperson added.Deutsche Energy Terminal and Sefe did not immediately respond to a request for comment from BI.

Germany banned Russian gas from its ports, the latest move to isolate Putin's energy industry: report

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Natural-gas prices in Texas have dropped into negative territory.</li><li>This isn't common when energy demand is high during summer heatwaves.</li></ul>Natural-gas prices in Texas have slipped into negative territory even amid a heat advisory for parts of the state, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/us-natgas-prices-turn-negative-texas-despite-heat-wave-2024-06-25/">Reuters</a> reported.Though this will sometimes occur, negative next-day gas prices are more typically seen in cooler seasons, when there's less demand for air conditioning — not when temperatures are climbing <a target="_blank" href="https://www.kxan.com/weather/forecast/todays-forecast/">into the triple digits</a>.Still, prices at Texas' Waha hub dropped to negative $1 per million British thermal unit on Monday.It's a situation where high demand has likely been offset by an oversupply of the energy commodity, and it's been attribution to pipeline maintenance by Kinder Morgan, an energy firm working to limit gas capacity in the Permian Highway gas pipe.Taking this infrastructure offline can lead to trapped natural gas, momentarily boosting supply. According to traders that spoke with Reuters, other reasons may have contributed to the negative price slide as well.This is the 18th time this year that Texas natural gas price have entered negative territory, the outlet said. According to Fortune, some of this price action was similarly caused by pipe shutdowns, such as when the Natural Gas Pipeline of America was taken offline <a target="_blank" href="https://fortune.com/2024/04/27/natural-gas-prices-negative-territory-west-texas-supply-glut-weak-demand/">due to fire in April</a>.For Texas' energy consumers, however, this likely won't lead to cheaper electricity bills. Already, past heat waves have caused the <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/electricity-price-biggest-increases-us-regions-energy-bills-summer-heatwave-2024-6?_gl=1*sc5i43*_ga*MTMxNDIwNDI1Ni4xNjc1Njg3OTU4*_ga_E21CV80ZCZ*MTcxOTM0MjExNS4zNjIuMC4xNzE5MzQyMTE1LjYwLjAuMA..">states' spot electricity prices to soar</a> as high as 20,000%.What's more, West South Central states — including Texas — are likely to have the most expensive bills of the country this year, the Energy Information Administration reported.

Texas natural-gas prices turn negative despite soaring heatwave temperatures

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Russian inflation will likely rise after the nation hiked its gas prices, British Intelligence said.</li><li>Russia raised domestic gas prices 11% at the start of July.</li></ul>Russian inflation will worsen after a sudden spike in gas prices, according to a new report from the UK intelligence.Consumer prices in Russia are set to rise even higher after the government implemented prices hikes on gas for its citizens this month, the British Ministry of Defence said in a <a target="_blank" href="https://x.com/DefenceHQ/status/1812769823211896886">note</a> this week. Domestic gas prices in Russia spiked 11% at the start of July, likely to make up for industry losses stemming from Western sanctions, the note said."This hike is almost certainly intended to increase revenue from Russia's domestic market, in response to the loss of natural gas exports in Europe," the Ministry said.Gas prices, which are state-controlled in Russia, have already shot up 34% since Moscow began its invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Prices are on track to rise another 8.2% in 2025, which will "almost certainly add to inflationary pressures," the report said.The increases come as Russia has lost a huge segment of its natural gas business as the European Union has weaned itself off of Russian fossil fuels since 2022. Russia has also cut off natural gas supplies to key European countries, like <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-cut-natural-gas-to-germany-shell-refused-ruble-payment-2022-6">Germany and the Netherlands</a>, due to suppliers refusing to pay for gas in rubles.The restrictions have taken a huge bite out of Russia's gas sales, which make up one of the Kremlin's largest sources of revenue. Gazprom, Russia's state-run gas producer, said it lost 629 billion rubles, or <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/russia-oil-gas-energy-flows-gazprom-sanctions-ukraine-war-putin-2024-5">around $6.8 billion in 2023</a> — its first recorded loss in over 20 years.Sanctions have also hit Russia's oil revenue, another key source of income for the Kremlin. Moscow's total <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/russian-energy-revenue-crude-oil-prices-gas-exports-sanctions-ukraine-2024-1">oil and gas sales plummeted 24% in 2023</a>, a sign higher energy prices haven't completely made up for the loss in market share.Higher prices have posed a burden on Russians, who have been grappling with elevated inflation since the start of the war in Ukraine. Consumer prices rose 8.6% year-per-year in June, Russia's economic ministry reported, well above the Bank of Russia's 4% price target.British intelligence added that inflation in Russia is "highly likely" to remain above target through the rest of 2024.Analysts expect inflation to clock in at over 6% by the end of the year, which could cause central bank to lift interest rates to 18% in July, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/rates-bonds/russia-seen-hiking-rates-by-200-bps-18-july-inflation-quickens-2024-07-02/">according to Reuters</a>.

Russian inflation will soar even higher as sanctions spark another surge in gas prices, British intelligence says

The central government has reduced <keyword id="20442280" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="windfall-tax" source="keywords">windfall tax</keyword> on crude petroleum, according to a government notification. The special additional <keyword id="20253895" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="excise-duty" source="keywords">excise duty</keyword> (<keyword id="20211971" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="saed" source="keywords">SAED</keyword>) on crude petroleum has been slashed from Rs 9,600 per tonne to Rs 8,400 per tonne. The new <keyword id="20452955" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="tax-rates" source="keywords">tax rates</keyword> will come into immediate effect. The taxes on <keyword id="6356109" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="diesel" source="Orion">diesel</keyword>, petrol and aviation turbine fuel will continue to remain nil. The government had on April 16 raised the windfall tax on <keyword id="20201860" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="petroleum-crude" source="keywords">petroleum crude</keyword> to Rs 9,600 per cent tonne from Rs 6,800. A tax levied on an unforeseen or unexpectedly large profit is called a windfall tax. Meanwhile, bringing a measure of respite to the people, <keyword id="19979741" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="oil-marketing-companies" source="keywords">oil marketing companies</keyword> have slashed the prices of <keyword id="21488887" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="commercial-LPG-gas-cylinders" source="keywords">commercial LPG gas cylinders</keyword> by Rs 19 per unit with immediate effect. The retail sales price of a 19 kg commercial LPG cylinder would be now Rs 1745.50 in Delhi, sources said. Last month, the price was cut by Rs 30.50 for a 19-kg commercial cylinder at Rs 1764.50. While the precise reasons behind the <keyword id="21488889" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="price-decrease" source="keywords">price decrease</keyword> remain undisclosed, various factors, such as changes in <keyword id="21488888" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="international-oil-prices" source="keywords">international oil prices</keyword>, shifts in taxation policies, and supply-demand dynamics, likely contribute to such adjustments. Revisions for both commercial and domestic LPG (liquefied petroleum gas) cylinders typically occur on the first day of each month. (ANI)

India slashes windfall tax on crude petroleum

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Europe continues to import Russian natural gas, despite pledges to wean off the fuel after the invasion of Ukraine.</li><li>Europe's reliance on Russian gas has dropped from over 40% to about 15% since the Ukraine war.</li></ul>Europe has pledged to wean itself from Russian natural gas following Moscow's invasion of Ukraine, but it's still buying the fuel.Europe's monthly imports of Russian liquefied natural gas — the supercooled version of natural gas that can be transported on ships — have been holding relatively steady, in the 850,000 to 1.6 million metric ton range, since the invasion of Ukraine, per <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2024-07-30/russia-s-lng-clout-in-europe-rises-as-us-fuel-heads-elsewhere">Bloomberg records.</a>This continued import of Russian fuel shows the complications of cutting off Russian gas completely in the global energy market.To be sure, Russia's share in Europe's natural-gas imports has dropped dramatically since the Ukraine war started.Before the invasion, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.brookings.edu/articles/europes-messy-russian-gas-divorce/">Europe imported</a> over 40% of its natural gas from Russia — its single largest supplier and a major energy producer — mainly via pipelines.By the end of last year, Europe still imported about 15% of its total gas supply from Russia, with about 9% coming from pipelines and 6% as LNG. This is down from 43% and 4% from pipelines and LNG, respectively, in the first quarter of 2021."This means that the handful of member states that have not been able to or have not chosen to reduce their dependency remain highly vulnerable to Russia's weaponization of energy imports," Brookings analysts wrote in a June report.<h2 id="d2e6d7e8-d863-4f71-a938-3b296496b522">US stepped up LNG imports to Europe, but shipments have fallen this year</h2>Europe's continued imports of Russian gas are in part due to shifting demands for the fuel that has driven a lot of exports from the US — the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/us-was-top-lng-exporter-2023-hit-record-levels-2024-01-02/">world's top LNG exporter</a> last year — to other locations this year.The <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-07-01/us-lng-supplies-to-europe-overtake-russian-gas-iea-says">US supplied more natural gas</a> to Europe than Russia did for the first time ever in June 2022, but the gap between the two countries' LNG shipments has narrowed.In July, the difference between the amount of LNG the US and Russia shipped to Europe contracted to its lowest since late 2021, according to a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2024-07-30/russia-s-lng-clout-in-europe-rises-as-us-fuel-heads-elsewhere">Bloomberg analysis</a> of preliminary ship-tracking data published on Tuesday.At the end of July, Europe imported 1.5 million metric tons of LNG from the US, just slightly more than the 1.3 million tons the region imported from Russia.The gap between Europe's imports has been narrowing this year. At the end of January, Europe imported 5.2 million tons of LNG from the US and just 1.5 million tons from Russia.This is mostly due to US LNG shippers sending their goods to where the money is: Asia, where prices have been trading at a premium to Europe due to a summer heatwave.Spot LNG cargoes for delivery to North Asia were priced around $12 per million British thermal units, or mmBtu, in the week to July 26, according to <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/asias-lng-imports-shift-higher-europes-fades-russell-2024-07-29/">Reuters</a> in a Monday report. This was about 17% higher than the $10.30 mmBtu for delivery to Europe on July 26.Importers from Japan — a top buyer — were seeking spot cargoes in late June, according to Rystad, an energy research firm, at the time. This means demand has risen more than what importers had projected when they locked in long-term contracts earlier.Asia was the "preferred destination" for US cargoes for delivery in August and September, wrote Masanori Odaka, a senior analyst at Rystad.

The US is sending less natural gas to Europe, complicating Europe's plans to cut off Russian gas

The unsung warriors of 'The Price Is Right'

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Russia's oil revenue fell sharply year-over-year in October.</li><li>Oil-related tax revenue dropped 29% last month, while oil and gas proceeds fell more than 25%.</li></ul>Russia saw a double-digit drop in oil revenue last month, hitting an important source of funds for the Kremlin amid pressure on global crude prices. Moscow's revenue from oil-related taxes plummeted 29% year-over-year in October, from 1.48 trillion rubles to 1.05 trillion rubles, according to data from Russia's Finance Ministry. Oil and gas proceeds, which is largely made up of oil production taxes and profit-based taxes in the industry, also fell more than 25% to 1.21 trillion rubles.Total oil and gas revenue rose on a monthly basis, with October levels up more than 75% compared to September. However, that's largely because the profit-based tax on Russia's oil industry is due four times a year, with companies paying taxes in March, April, July, and October, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-11-05/kremlin-oil-revenue-shrank-by-29-in-october-amid-lower-prices">Bloomberg reported</a>.The yearly drop has largely been fueled by <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/russia-economy-oil-war-revenue-crude-prices-opec-production-cut-2024-9">falling crude prices</a>. International crude prices logged their <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/oil-prices-today-israel-strike-iran-production-brent-wti-crude-2024-10">biggest drop in two years</a> last month after Israel's strike against Iran spared its oil infrastructure. Meanwhile, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/us-oil-opec-crude-production-record-oil-prices-commodity-market-2024-11">US producers are pumping more than ever</a>, complicating efforts by OPEC+ to crimp supply and boost the price. Brent crude, the international benchmark, traded around $75 a barrel on Tuesday, down 11% over the last year. Meanwhile, Urals crude, Russia's flagship oil blend, traded around $63.57, down around 24% compared to the same time last year, Bloomberg data shows.The drop in oil revenue throttles a key source of funds for <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-economy-ukraine-war-outlook-moscow-sanctions-west-firms-uchicago-2024-10">Russia's war-driven economy</a>, which is becoming increasingly strained under the rising costs of its invasion of Ukraine. Russia's oil and gas industries have accounted for around 30%-50% of Russia's federal budget revenue for the last decade, according to an <a target="_blank" href="https://www.oxfordenergy.org/publications/follow-the-money-understanding-russias-oil-and-gas-revenues/">analysis</a> from The Oxford Institute for Energy Studies. Russia's <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-economy-outlook-defense-budget-spending-ukraine-war-putin-sanctions-2024-10">defense state spending</a>, meanwhile, is on track to hit a post-Soviet high in 2025.

Russia's oil revenue plummeted 29% in October amid volatile global crude prices

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Florida gas stations are running out of fuel ahead of Hurricane Milton's landfall.</li><li>If the storm damages Port Tampa Bay, it could mean long-term trouble for the gas supply chain.</li></ul>A day before <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/hurricane-helene-milton-tampa-florida-desantis-clean-disaster-dangerous-2024-10">Hurricane Milton</a> was expected to make landfall, gas stations in Florida were already running out of fuel.As of 8 p.m. local time on Tuesday, more than 1 out of 5 gas stations in Florida had no gas, according to data from <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://x.com/GasBuddyGuy/status/1843805604768559279">GasBuddy</a>, which tracks gas prices.The shortage comes as millions of people try to flee Florida in anticipation of Milton, leading to long lines at gas stations and traffic jams. The hurricane is <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/hurricane-milton-timeline-see-storm-evolution-from-space-satellite-imagery-2024-10">expected to hit Florida's Gulf Coast</a> on Wednesday or Thursday and pass through the state's central area, including Tampa Bay and Orlando.Shon Hiatt, director of the Business of Energy Transition Initiative at the University of Southern California's Marshall School, told Business Insider that gas is distributed to Central Florida through Port Tampa Bay — and having just one major source of fuel complicates efforts to get gas to people who need it."In this case, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/hurricane-milton-category-four-storm-real-estate-market-insurance-damages-2024-10">Florida is extremely vulnerable</a> because they don't have any other pipelines, so it's almost like an island," Hiatt said.In a Tuesday press conference, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis said that the state's reserves include 110,000 gallons of gasoline and 268,000 gallons of diesel fuel, with trucks on the way to refill diminished reserves in areas in the storm's path, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.cnn.com/2024/10/08/business/hurricane-milton-florida-gasoline-shortages/index.html">CNN</a> reported."There is no fuel shortage," CNN reported DeSantis said. "Fuel continues to arrive to the state of Florida. But lines at gas stations have been long and gas stations are running out quicker than they otherwise would."Christopher Tang, a UCLA professor and scholar of supply chain management, told BI that the problem is compounded by the sheer number of people filling up their tanks, as the fuel supply cannot keep up with demand.Tang said gas tankers on roads could also be stuck in traffic jams, which would require government coordination to address before the situation becomes too dire."If it's very serious, then the National Guard may need to help out to deliver some of the gas," Tang said.All the experts who spoke to Business Insider said if there is lasting damage to the port, it could impact access to gas in Central Florida for weeks — if not months — after the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/hurricane-milton-category-five-threatens-florida-fema-funding-2024-10">hurricane</a>. Hiatt said the state could get gas in other ways, besides the port's pipeline, via truck or rail, but that it would likely result in inflated fuel prices."But again, it's all about the infrastructure. So are the railroads clear? Is the debris gone? That's to be determined," Hiatt said. "Everyone's saying this could be this a hundred-year event where it could be the worst since the 1840s, when a massive hurricane hit and completely changed the geography of Tampa."Patrick DeHaan, an analyst for GasBuddy, echoed Tang and Hiatt's concerns, adding that people facing empty gas stations are getting increasingly desperate for fuel — which would be compounded if the port is damaged in the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/hurricane-milton-airlines-waive-change-fees-cap-florida-fares-2024-10">storm</a>."It would be hugely problematic if there was significant damage to the port," DeHaan told Business Insider. "And that's what we're kind of waiting to see. Will it be extensive damage? Will the Coast Guard be able to open the port again? Will the shipments of gasoline be able to go into the port? Because if the port's down for a decent amount of time, even more than a few days, it's going to be significantly problematic."

Florida's gas stations are running out of fuel and Hurricane Milton could have lasting impacts on the state's supply

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Russia's oil and gas profits are under pressure.</li><li>Before the war, Russia supplied 40% of Europe's gas. It's now down to 15%.</li></ul>Russia's energy sector has taken a hit from Western sanctions.But Moscow doesn't appear ready to acknowledge that it's not in a financial position to cut Europe off from its natural gas exports completely.In an interview with <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://mid.ru/en/foreign_policy/news/1970551/">Sky News Arabia on Friday,</a> Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said Russia hasn't cut off gas exports to Europe because Russians are "decent people.""We are decent people. We signed long-term contracts with Europe," Lavrov said."We always honor our obligations, unlike Europe or the United States," Lavrov added.Besides, as Lavrov said, Russia and Europe's gas deals benefit both sides."If cooperation is mutually beneficial, why shoot yourself in the foot?" he asked.What Lavrov didn't outright address in the interview is the more likely reason Russia continues to export to Europe: It needs the money.<h2 id="dedf49a1-9ad7-40d6-9c80-9ef995fa1d77">Russia's oil and gas profits are under pressure</h2>Before starting the war in Ukraine and being sanctioned by the West, Russia supplied as much as <a target="_blank" rel="" class="" href="https://www.brookings.edu/articles/europes-messy-russian-gas-divorce/">40% of Europe's gas.</a> That declined to roughly <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.brookings.edu/articles/europes-messy-russian-gas-divorce/#:~:text=Russia%20cut%20off%20the%20gas,price%20cap%20on%20Russian%20oil.">15% at the end of 2023</a> after three out of four Nord Stream pipelines carrying Russian gas to Europe were damaged. The remaining Nord Stream pipeline has never been commissioned, and Russia was already slowing its gas flows to Europe before the blast.Now, Russia's oil and gas profits are under pressure from sanctions and restrictions — including a G7 price cap on its crude oil exports — as its war with Ukraine heads into its 31st month.<a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/russian-energy-revenue-crude-oil-prices-gas-exports-sanctions-ukraine-2024-1">Russia's oil and gas revenues</a> hit 8.82 trillion rubles, or $94.6 billion, in 2023. That's 24% lower than the 11.6 trillion rubles it recorded in 2022, when revenues jumped due to oil price volatility. In 2021, Russia's oil and gas sales revenue stood at 9 trillion rubles.Russia has <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/russia-raises-forecast-2024-oil-gas-export-revenues-by-174-bln-document-shows-2024-09-06/">raised its forecast</a> for its oil and gas sales this year, but the breakeven oil price has also risen significantly since the war started. That's due to sanctions-related factors, such as higher Russian-underwritten insurance premiums and shipping costs related to a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russias-dark-fleet-oil-exports-strong-red-sea-risks-strategy-2024-1">dark fleet</a> transporting the commodities.According to <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.spglobal.com/commodityinsights/en/market-insights/latest-news/oil/081324-sanctions-dent-russian-economy-but-commodities-exports-boost-kremlin-coffers#:~:text=S%26P%20Global%20Commodity%20Insights%20estimated,though%2C%20for%20three%20main%20reasons.">S&amp;P Global,</a> Russia's breakeven oil price was $62 a barrel in 2021. It's now $94 a barrel.Higher breakeven prices eat into profits, which would hit Russian energy firms and have a spillover impact on the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russian-economy-overheating-consumer-spending-tourism-central-bank-interest-rate-2024-7">war economy</a> — which appears resilient but is fighting multiple challenges. There's also the question of how well Russia's economy is really doing; in July, a group of eight <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-economy-wartime-boom-outlook-western-us-sanctions-soviet-union-2024-7">European finance ministers</a> said outright that Russia is lying about its booming economy.To be sure, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/germany-europe-russia-gas-renewables-oil-energy-security-ukraine-war-2022-4">other geopolitical factors</a> could also be playing into Russia's decision to keep natural gas exports moving into Europe. But the role oil and gas play in Russia's economy can't be understated.The oil and gas industry accounts for <a target="_blank" rel=" nofollow" class="" href="https://www.oxfordenergy.org/wpcms/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/Follow-the-Money-Russian-Oil.pdf">30% to 50% of Russia's federal budget revenue,</a> the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies estimated.Bloomberg estimates that Russia could lose as much as <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/russia-economy-ukraine-war-revenue-gas-pipeline-energy-europe-trade-2024-9">$6.5 billion a year</a> if Naftogaz, Ukraine's state-run energy giant, doesn't renew a gas-transit deal that expires this year. This deal allows Russian gas to be transported to Europe via Ukraine.While Russia has managed to pivot to <a target="_blank" rel="" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-economy-divert-oil-exports-europe-india-china-circumvent-sanctions-2023-12">alternative markets, </a>the commodities are often sold at huge discounts due to sanctions, according to an <a target="_blank" rel=" nofollow" class="" href="https://prod-us3.plattslive.com/commodities/crude/news-and-insight/081324-sanctions-dent-russian-economy-but-commodities-exports-boost-kremlin-coffers">S&amp;P Global</a> report last month."Russia has managed to sustain its oil production and exports despite Western sanctions and <a target="_blank" rel=" nofollow" class="" href="https://www.opec.org/opec_web/en/press_room/7369.htm">OPEC+ cuts,</a> although it has faced challenges with its oil cash flows," wrote Svetlana Tretyakova, a senior analyst at Rystad Energy, in late August.

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