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<ul class="summary-list"><li>This post originally appeared in the Insider Today newsletter.</li></ul>Good morning! A Sam's Club with robots making pizza and no cash registers could be the new norm for the warehouse club. CEO Chris Nicholas spoke to BI about what he wants <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/sams-club-ceo-chris-nicholas-interview-2024-10">shopping "in the future" to feel like</a>.In today's big story, Goldman Sachs thinks the past decade of big returns from the S&amp;P 500 <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-outlook-sp500-future-returns-decade-forecast-goldman-sachs-2024-10">is coming to a close</a>.What's on deck:<ul><li>Markets: Americans' rising pile of debt <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/big-banks-preparing-loan-loss-credit-card-auto-debt-cre-2024-10">is making banks nervous</a>.</li><li>Tech: SoftBank-backed creator-economy startup <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/jellysmack-layoffs-restructuring-creator-economy-influencer-content-softbank-investment-2024-10">Jellysmack is cutting staff</a>.</li><li>Business: New York magazine and Olivia Nuzzi are <a target="_blank" rel="noopener" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/new-york-magazine-parting-ways-olivia-nuzzi-third-party-investigation-2024-10">parting ways</a>.</li></ul>But first, is this the end?If this was forwarded to you, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/subscription/newsletter/insider-today">sign up here.</a><h3 id="7fa5f018-5b05-4a37-a8dc-d3f89138bcb3">The big story</h3><h2 id="5fd547b9-ec52-41fc-8e08-4f4b27dd8097">A new era for stocks?</h2><div type="image" title="Photo illustration of moody Standard &amp; Poor's sign" height="1440" width="1920" msid="114468948" hostid="261" sizebytes="207764"></div>Forget the economy; Goldman Sachs is projecting a hard landing for future stock returns.The bank's portfolio strategy research team forecasts the S&amp;P 500 <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-outlook-sp500-future-returns-decade-forecast-goldman-sachs-2024-10">will see annualized returns of 3% over the next decade</a>, writes BI's Filip De Mott.That'd be a sharp comedown for stock investors, who have enjoyed 13% in annualized returns for the major index over the past 10 years.Setting aside the market's recent strength, Goldman's forecast still isn't great. Annualized returns of 3% would put it in the 7th percentile of performance since 1930.Goldman's rationale for the pessimistic take includes two things even a rookie investor can appreciate: The market is overvalued AND too concentrated.Currently, the S&amp;P 500 cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings ratio is 38, well above the index's average of 22. And the usual suspects — tech giants like Nvidia and Meta — have done much of the heavy lifting in helping the S&amp;P 500 to record highs.<div type="image" title="Wall Street sign with New York Stock Exchange building in the back." height="4162" width="6243" msid="114468943" hostid="261" sizebytes="1226440"></div>Not everyone agrees with Goldman's forecast.This very newsletter recently included commentary from experts who said <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-outlook-bull-rally-anniversary-earnings-interest-rates-sp500-2024-10">the two-year-old bull market still had plenty of gas left in the tank</a>.It seems the only industry consensus we have about stocks' future is there is no consensus. Case in point: Goldman is bullish on a short-term perspective, recently <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-outlook-sp500-targets-bull-market-goldman-ubs-bmo-2024-10">raising its year-end S&amp;P 500 price target</a>.BI's Matthew Fox has a rundown on predictions from <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/stock-market-outlook-wall-street-bull-bear-predictions-economy-inflation-2024-10">the bulls, the bears, and those somewhere in the middle</a>.UBS, for example, sees <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-outlook-sp500-prediction-us-economy-no-landing-ubs-2024-10">another big gain for the S&amp;P 500 next year</a>, writes BI's Jennifer Sor.The bank said a "no landing" for the US economy means the S&amp;P 500 could rise roughly 13% from its current levels. Inflation would remain somewhat elevated in the scenario, but the bank still sees room for the Fed to cut rates, which is bullish for stocks.On the other side of the spectrum are JPMorgan, which has maintained its bearish outlook this year in the face of a surging market, and Stifel, which has predicted a <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-crash-sp500-prediction-bubble-overvalued-stifel-outlook-2024-10">massive market downturn in 2025</a>.At the center of the debate sits artificial intelligence. Bears point to the tech as overinflating valuations with little to no evidence of it meaningfully driving revenue. Bulls say the hype is warranted, as the impact of AI is inevitable, like the rise of the internet.<h3 id="77f31a4c-8462-4e3d-a71f-838cb79493fb">News brief</h3><h2 id="1fcd294b-3f53-425f-9f20-4093e8623b59">Top headlines</h2><ul><li>Flight logs show Elon Musk's private jets are busy hitting swing states as <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/elon-musk-private-jet-hits-swing-states-campaigns-donald-trump-2024-10">he campaigns for Trump</a>.</li><li>Ex-Twitter CEO Parag Agrawal has moved his AI startup out of stealth, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/ex-twitter-ceo-parag-agrawal-ai-startup-stealth-parallel-2024-10">calling it Parallel</a>.</li><li>'The million-dollar question of this election': Women's health startups are <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/womens-health-startups-risk-trump-wins-election-2024-10">confronting a shifting legal landscape</a>.</li><li>Putin's expanded BRICS summit proves he has friends — <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-hosts-brics-summit-defy-west-us-economy-china-dollar-2024-10">but risks buckling under its own contradictions</a>.</li><li>Medicare coverage will change in 2025. Some boomers are <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/medicare-changes-increase-costs-deductibles-prescription-drugs-premiums-copays-2024-10">already struggling to keep up with their medical bills</a>.</li></ul><h2 id="8120060b-ae66-48dc-b149-f0489a30ffa2">3 things in markets</h2><div type="image" title="Photo illustration of New York's Financial District" height="500" width="1000" msid="114469218" hostid="261" sizebytes="114610"></div><ol><li>Big banks brace for losses as Americans' debt piles up. US consumers and businesses are struggling to pay off auto, credit, and commercial real-estate debt. In response, US banks have <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/big-banks-preparing-loan-loss-credit-card-auto-debt-cre-2024-10">steadily increased their cash reserves</a> in anticipation of loan losses. (But don't fear the worst; cash reserves are still far from Great Depression levels.)</li><li>Profits, not politics. Bank of America doesn't see November's election substantially impacting the stock market. Share price movement is driven by profit growth, and policies' impact on a sector <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-election-impact-outlook-harris-trump-energy-tesla-biden-2024-10">can be the opposite of what investors expect</a>.</li><li>A famed short-seller doesn't want beef with Tesla. The EV giant reports earnings on Wednesday, but Carson Block <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/tesla-stock-price-short-seller-block-wont-elon-musk-valuation-2024-10">won't be betting against Elon Musk's company</a>. The investor known for his short bets said Tesla's massive size and Musk's ability to pull "rabbits out of the hat constantly" means he'll steer clear.</li></ol><h2 id="f4b54806-7f81-450c-ba32-92560d4fae9b">3 things in tech</h2><div type="image" title="Jellysmack's jellyfish symbol glitching" height="900" width="1200" msid="114469221" hostid="261" sizebytes="37624"></div><ol><li>A creator-economy startup is laying off staff and pointing the finger at Meta. The SoftBank-backed company Jellysmack is <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/jellysmack-layoffs-restructuring-creator-economy-influencer-content-softbank-investment-2024-10">cutting 22 US staffers</a>. A Jellysmack representative told BI it was "scaling back certain operations in our Creator Program on Meta due to the opacity of their new monetization model." The program originally helped creators make money by sharing their content across Meta's platforms.</li><li>Wall Street can't quit Nvidia. Banks have kept hiking their price targets for the chip titan, whose share price is up almost 200% this year. But <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/nvidia-stock-price-prediction-nvda-blackwell-demand-outlook-chips-ai-2024-10">it's not deterring analysts</a>, who remain upbeat about the next-gen Blackwell chip and Nvidia's web of enterprise partnerships.</li><li>Advertisers rally against iPhone "Distraction Control" over fears it could sabotage websites. French groups representing around 800 companies in media and advertising signed an open letter lobbying Tim Cook to suspend the feature, which would allow Safari users to hide images, pop-ups, or ads. They called it <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/publishers-advertisers-call-on-apple-suspend-distraction-control-feature-2024-10">"an existential threat" to online advertising</a>.</li></ol><h2 id="9260fa45-d397-4b3c-b4f8-4bb193976216">3 things in business</h2><div type="image" title="Photo of Bob Iger" height="1280" width="1920" msid="114468945" hostid="261" sizebytes="74892"></div><ol><li>Disney says it will appoint a new CEO in 2026. The company said it would <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/disney-bob-iger-ceo-successor-early-2026-james-gorman-chairman-2024-10">announce a successor for Bob Iger</a> before his contract expires in December of that year.</li><li>New York magazine and Olivia Nuzzi are parting ways. The star reporter was placed on leave after her editors learned she'd had a relationship with Robert F. Kennedy Jr. While a third-party investigation into Nuzzi's work found "no inaccuracies nor evidence of bias" in her reporting, the magazine said they'd still <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/new-york-magazine-parting-ways-olivia-nuzzi-third-party-investigation-2024-10">mutually decided to go their separate ways</a>.</li><li>The vibecession, according to science. Americans are financially better off now than they were at the beginning of the pandemic. So why is everyone so concerned about inflation? A new study details the emotional toll of rising prices, which could explain <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/inflation-hidden-cost-work-salary-negotiation-boss-conflict-2024-10">why the vibes are so rank right now</a>.</li></ol><h2 id="1ad7b482-3f4b-44b4-81b6-a864aa386478">In other news</h2><ul><li>These tech investors are trawling UC Berkeley <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/the-house-fund-uc-berkeley-perplexity-databricks-2024-10">to fund the next Perplexity or Databricks</a>.</li><li>Ken Griffin's move to Florida means <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/ken-griffin-move-to-florida-selling-chicago-homes-at-loss-2024-10">losing millions on homes he never even lived in</a>.</li><li>McDonald's is the latest election battleground <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/mcdonalds-is-latest-election-battleground-for-trump-and-harris-2024-10">for Trump and Harris</a>.</li></ul><h2 id="9f5d80ac-3466-429f-a50a-2ffbb70c65ff">What's happening today</h2><ul><li>General Motors, GE, Verizon, and other companies report earnings.</li><li>The IMF World Economic Outlook is published.</li><li>NBA season begins with New York Knicks at Boston Celtics and Minnesota Timberwolves at Los Angeles Lakers.</li></ul>The Insider Today team: Dan DeFrancesco, deputy editor and anchor, in New York. Jordan Parker Erb, editor, in New York. Hallam Bullock, senior editor, in London. Amanda Yen, fellow, in New York. Milan Sehmbi, fellow, in London.

The future of the S&P 500 has everyone divided

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Earnings of consumer companies with high exposure to China could suffer under Trump's trade policies, UBS says.</li><li>The analysts said Best Buy, Five Below, and Wayfair are especially at risk. </li></ul>Donald Trump's proposal of stiff tariffs on goods from China could slam the earnings of some retailers, UBS analysts said. Several US-listed stocks—namely, Best Buy, Five Below, and Wayfair—are heavily exposed to Trump's trade proposed trade policy, the bank said in a note. "Tariffs are likely to pose a significant headwind for several of these retailers for at least the near-term. While the longer-term implications are unclear, we do believe that this situation is more likely to lead to at least temporary mis-pricings for some of these stocks," the analysts said in a Monday note."Right now, we think the overhang is significant on names like Five Below, Best Buy, and Wayfair," they added.The analysts say that if those retailers were to absorb 5% of the rise in the cost of goods associated with a potential tariff, they would each experience a double-digit plunge in earnings; Five Below would see a 15% reduction, Best Buy would experience a 26% loss, and Wayfair could see earnings plunge over 40%, the analysts said.The analysts' estimates come as Donald Trump and Kamala Harris are in a dead heat in the polls. The former president has proposed 20% duties on imports across the board, with far more drastic <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/donald-trump-impose-tariffs-china-if-elected-2024-2">60% tariffs</a> on products from China. Five Below, Best Buy, and Wayfair each have high exposure to goods from China. But it isn't all bad news for these stocks. The analysts said that historical trends show that retailers often find ways to adapt, and even these stocks have unique circumstances that could spare them from the potential hits to earnings.For instance, even if Five Below raises prices, it may still offer greater value than competitors, while Wayfair's vendors could simply pass along the tariffs to the consumer in the form of higher prices rather than assuming it themselves, the analysts say. At Best Buy, there's a chance the market prices for consumer electronics simply adjust, insulating the retailer from bearing the brunt of the tariffs independently, the analysts say.As the situation gets clearer, the stocks could see some upside."There could be select opportunities to use this uncertainty as a chance to accumulate the shares of some of these names when the peak fear exists," the analysts said, adding, "As there is more clarity on the situation, these stocks likely also have the most to gain from having greater resolution on the situation."In the past, high duties on China <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-china-trade-war-list-of-goods-tariffs-2018-9">during Trump's first term</a> resulted in higher prices in categories subject to the tariffs, which likely contributed to slowing consumer spending, the report said.

3 retail stocks could see earnings plunge if Trump implements his proposed tariffs, UBS says

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Stocks rose Thursday as investors digested strong retail sales data and more earnings.</li><li>Retail sales data showed US consumer spending remains robust, with monthly spending up 0.4%.</li></ul>US stocks climbed on Thursday as traders saw better-than-expected retail sales data and continued to digest strong corporate earnings reports.The Dow Jones Industrial Average added to record levels achieved at Wednesday's close. Bond yields rose, with the 10-year Treasury up six basis points to 4.075%. September's retail sales report showed consumer spending remains strong, with monthly spending up 0.4% from August, just above a Dow Jones consensus estimate of 0.3%.Retail sales climbed 1.7% compared to a year ago, according to Commerce Department data released Thursday.The strong spending data comes on the heels of a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/september-jobs-report-unemployment-rate-nonfarm-payroll-growth-federal-reserve-2024-10">blockbuster September jobs report</a>, and further solidifies assessments that the US economy is strong and that the Federal Reserve may not need to cut rates as steeply or quickly as previously thought. Weekly jobless claims were lower than expected at 241,000, a 19,000 decline from the week before, according to Labor Department data released Thursday. Economists had forecast 260,000 weekly claims. Here's where US indexes stood shortly after the 9:30 a.m. opening bell on Thursday:<ul><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/s&amp;p_500?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">S&amp;P 500</a>: 5,873.45, up 0.53% </li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/dow_jones?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Dow Jones Industrial Average</a>: 43,279.21, up 0.47% (+201.51 points)</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/nasdaq_composite?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Nasdaq composite</a>: 18,523.24, up 0.85% </li></ul>Meanwhile, a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/tsmc-stock-price-q3-earnings-chip-stocks-asml-nvidia-amd-2024-10">highly anticipated report</a> from chipmaker Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company came in strong, showing net income surpassed estimates while net revenue for the quarter rose 36% compared to the same last year."We have talked to our customers all the time, including our hyperscaler customers who are building their own chips. And almost every AI innovator is working with TSMC," TSMC chairman and CEO C.C. Wei said.Shares of TSMC rose 7% after the opening bell, pulling other chip stocks higher. Nvidia was up almost 2%, and AMD was up over 1%.TSMC's optimism about demand for AI tech follows a <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/chipmakers-tumble-asml-guidance-semiconductor-nvidia-chip-growth-2024-10?_gl=1*1isprkj*_ga*MTY3OTgyNjg0MS4xNzIxMDE2MDM2*_ga_E21CV80ZCZ*MTcyOTE2NTYwMS4yODIuMS4xNzI5MTY3OTk1LjM0LjAuMA..">chip sector sell-off</a> earlier this week when chip machine maker ASML slashed its sales guidance on weaker demand from chipmakers.TSMC joins a string of strong earnings reports this week. Morgan Stanley and United Airlines posted strong results on Wednesday. Netflix will report third-quarter results after the close on Thursday. Here's what else is going on Thursday:<ul><li>A number of bank research desks are <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-outlook-sp500-targets-bull-market-goldman-ubs-bmo-2024-10?_gl=1*njfdt3*_ga*MTY3OTgyNjg0MS4xNzIxMDE2MDM2*_ga_E21CV80ZCZ*MTcyOTE2NTYwMS4yODIuMS4xNzI5MTY2MzczLjYwLjAuMA..">boosting their S&amp;P 500 price targets</a> in recent weeks as the bull market charges on.</li><li>China could raise nearly <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-economy-beijing-stimulus-1-trillion-debt-package-fiscal-deficit-2024-10">$1 trillion of fresh debt</a> in the next 3 years to revive its economy, according to a report from Caixin Global.</li><li>The US freight recession is showing <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/author/filip-de-mott">early signs of recovery</a> as trucking company JB Hunt posted a rare earnings beat on Tuesday.</li></ul>In commodities, bonds, and crypto:<ul><li>Oil futures fell. <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price?type=wti">West Texas Intermediate crude</a> dipped 0.2% to $70.22 a barrel. <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Brent crude</a>, the international benchmark, fell 0.3% to $74.01 a barrel.</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/gold-price?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Gold</a> rose 0.33% to $2,700.4 an ounce.</li><li>The 10-year Treasury yield was up six basis points to 4.075%.</li><li><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/currencies/btc-usd">Bitcoin</a> dipped 1.5% to $66,761.</li></ul>

Stock market today: Indexes gain after strong retail sales data

<ul class="summary-list"><li>US stocks raced to record highs after the 2024 presidential election concluded.</li><li>Investors seem certain that President-elect Donald Trump's policies are best for stocks.</li></ul>Wall Street is in love with Donald Trump, as if there was ever any doubt.A robust, multi-year bull market rally for US stocks reached another gear after the businessman-turned-politician <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/donald-trump-wins-presidential-election-race-2024-11">won the presidential election</a>. The S&amp;P 500 just topped 6,000 for the first time ever, and the tech-focused Nasdaq Composite is also in uncharted territory.Traders are convinced that the bulk of <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/donald-trump-election-victory-impact-investments-costs-housing-taxes-childcare-2024-11">Trump's economic policies</a>, which include tax cuts and fewer government regulations, will create a business-friendly backdrop that drives stocks higher."Investor sentiment is pro-growth, pro-deregulation, and pro-markets," said David Bahnsen, the chief investment officer at The Bahnsen Group, in recent commentary sent to Business Insider.<h2 id="3e5bdf8a-fc97-4e3d-a950-f23703f0015e">'Animal spirits' have been unleashed</h2>While some are skeptical of the consensus view, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/stock-market-outlook-trump-president-economy-tariffs-trade-war-kelly-2024-11">including those who are terrified about tariffs</a>, it looks as if investors broadly are scrambling to add exposure to equities. A staggering $22 billion flowed into exchange-traded funds on Wednesday, which was more than four times higher than the previous record for the day after the US election, according to State Street Global Advisors.Markets may hate uncertainty even more than tax hikes, so it's possible that a Kamala Harris win also could have sparked a relief rally.But that might dismiss how ecstatic big-money investors are about another Trump term, given that the S&amp;P 500 rose over 50% from his victory in 2016 until shortly before the pandemic."Business animal spirits could be rekindled once again from Trump's pro-business approach, which could lead to a more robust capital expenditures and investment environment," said Jeff Schulze, the head of economic and market strategy at ClearBridge Investments, in commentary.That term, "<a target="_blank" href="https://www.investopedia.com/terms/a/animal-spirits.asp">animal spirits,</a>" was coined in the 1930s by famed economist John Maynard Keynes, who remarked that investors' decisions are often driven by intense emotions like greed and fear.Anthony Saglimbene, Ameriprise's chief market strategist, borrowed Keynes' famous phrase to make the same point as Schulze: investors may be euphoric for the foreseeable future."Animal spirits through year-end could push major averages higher as the overhang of the election is removed and investors look to put excess cash to work in stocks," Saglimbene said in commentary.<h2 id="648d2368-71e0-40ed-9ed5-95b7faf9578c">How to invest after Trump's win</h2>Although the US economy <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/economy-outlook-tariffs-trump-trade-war-slowdown-jpmorgan-david-kelly-2024-10">looks healthy by most measures</a>, many market strategists are counting on an even bigger boom under Trump that <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/stocks-to-buy-election-investing-strategy-2016-comparison-morgan-stanley-2024-11">would benefit economically sensitive stocks</a>."This broad 'risk-on' mood for the U.S. stock market is cutting across all sectors, but particularly favoring more cyclically sensitive sectors that would benefit from a re-strengthening of the economy and tailwinds to corporate profitability," said Jim Baird, the chief investment officer at Plante Moran Financial Advisors, in written commentary sent to BI.Sectors that are heavily reliant on economic growth, like energy and financials, will stay hot, said Sébastien Page, the head of global multi-asset at T. Rowe Price, in a recent interview."I don't think it's over the top," Page said of the postelection market rally.Several of the strategists and investment chiefs that Business Insider leaned on for this story also cited small caps as a top idea, provided that the economy stays strong and taxes fall."Enough people had been worried about, 'Could we have a credit cycle? Could we have an economic slowdown into next year? What would increases in taxes and regulation do?'" said Sean Gallagher, the global head of Lazard's small-cap equity platform, in an interview.He continued: "Now that's off the table. I think it just increases small-business optimism. I think it'll increase <a target="_blank" href="https://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/capitalexpenditure.asp">CapEx</a>, which has been kind of held back."Smaller companies performed admirably early on in Trump's first tenure, though <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/cheap-stocks-to-buy-strong-growth-market-outlook-garp-bmo-2024-10">they've lagged large caps for years</a>. Gallagher is highly optimistic about the group again, both because of the economic environment and their valuations, which are <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/stocks-to-buy-small-mid-caps-market-rotation-outlook-bmo-2024-10">startlingly cheap relative to their peers</a>.Schulze from ClearBridge is also aboard the cyclical and small caps train. The strategist is fired up about what Trump's penchant for lower taxes and limited regulations means for industrials, consumer discretionary stocks, and financials.Saglimbene from Ameriprise concurred again that "the backdrop for financials could improve, as less regulation and the potential for merger/acquisition and capital market activity accelerate."Add the technology sector to the list of winners from less governmental oversight, Bahnsen said. Tech companies seem like a clearer beneficiary since the Federal Trade Commission (FTC) should be less hostile to their interests.For all the optimism in markets, some strategists are branching out from stocks.Jim Thorne, who's the chief market strategist at Canada-based wealth management firm Wellington-Altus, said in commentary that he's most interested in gold and bitcoin, which some have referred to as the yellow metal's digital doppelgänger.The world is awash with cash, making scarce assets like gold and bitcoin more valuable, and Thorne also noted that global economic growth is slowing. That suggests that the path forward for risk assets may not be smooth — even if Trump is successful in his second term."Investors should brace for volatility and shifts in market leadership as we transition to a peacetime economy, shaped by Trump's policies," Thorne said in written commentary.

'Animal spirits': 7 market strategists share how to ride the red wave as US stocks surge to new records

<ul class="summary-list"><li>As fears over economic volatility and deficits grow, investors and central banks are buying gold.</li><li>Gold is often seen as a safe-haven asset among investors.</li></ul>Now is looking like a golden opportunity to <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/personal-finance/investing/how-to-invest-in-gold">invest in gold</a>.For decades, the yellow metal has been considered a safe-haven asset, serving as a hedge against high inflation and economic uncertainty due to its low correlation to stocks and bonds.And there's certainly no shortage of economic uncertainty right now. The US presidential election is right around the corner, inflation concerns remain elevated, geopolitical tensions are high, and the US national debt is reaching untenable levels.Investors and central banks alike have been snatching up gold. The asset's price hit another record high earlier this week at $2,739.40 per ounce after rising over 30% this year, and some analysts are setting a price target of $3,000.Investing in gold is slightly different from putting money into stocks or bonds. Below, two gold experts share four ways investors can add gold to their portfolios.<h2 id="f6498d65-9f43-415b-a374-53643e6db3e3">4 ways to invest in gold</h2>For starters, investors can purchase the metal directly.You can buy gold coins online. You can buy gold bars at Costco. Those strip mall stores with a big "We Buy Gold" sign? You can buy gold there, too.Buying the physical commodity is a tangible way to invest in gold, but it does have some drawbacks. Jeff Muhlenkamp, portfolio manager at Muhlenkamp &amp; Company, points out that there are transaction costs when buying directly from a gold dealer. The investor also has to ensure the gold is certified regarding purity and weight. Buyers must also consider secure storage solutions and insurance for their physical assets.In general, physical gold is a less liquid way to own the asset and is quite costly. "Most of the time when people go and buy gold coins, they'll pay a big premium upfront, and they'll probably suffer a discount when they come to sell at the end," George Milling-Stanley, chief gold strategist at State Street Global Advisors, said.Investors can avoid the complications of investing in bars and coins by buying a gold ETF instead.Physical gold ETFs can be bought through a brokerage account and are directly backed by gold bullion held in bank vaults, meaning that investors don't have to worry about storage or liquidity issues. Examples include the iShares Gold Trust fund (<a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/etfs/ishares-gold-trust-us4642852044?miRedirects=1">IAU</a>) and the SPDR Gold Shares fund (<a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/etfs/spdr-gold-shares-us78463v1070?miRedirects=1">GLD</a>).Synthetic gold ETFs don't hold physical gold, investing instead in gold derivatives such as futures and options. These ETFs can be cheaper than physically backed ones since they don't need to store the metal, but they have counterparty risk, or the risk of loss from a contract participant not fulfilling their obligation. Examples include the SPDR Gold MiniShares Trust (<a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/etfs/spdr-gold-minishares-us98149e3036?miRedirects=1">GLDM</a>) and the ProShares Ultra Gold fund (<a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/etfs/proshares-ultra-gold-us74347w6012?miRedirects=2">UGL</a>).For investors who want to get as close to the real thing without buying bars, physical gold ETFs tend to track changes in the price of gold more accurately than synthetic ones, Muhlenkamp said.Mining companies are another option for more indirect exposure. These can vary wildly in risk, so Milling-Stanley advises that investors approach these stocks with discretion. The multi-billion-dollar market-cap mining companies offer the most liquidity and stable business models. Smaller mining companies, known as junior miners, are in the exploration phase of looking for mineral deposits and might not be generating revenues, Muhlenkamp said.Mining stocks are less directly correlated with the price of gold than ETFs and may lag trends in gold prices by several months, Muhlenkamp said.In Milling-Stanley's opinion, investing in mining stocks instead of directly investing in gold erodes some of the metal's portfolio protection, as mining stocks behave more in line with the general equity market.This area of investment is definitely higher in risk, but if enthusiasm for gold continues to surge, more speculative mining stocks will enjoy the biggest upside, according to Muhlenkamp.Examples of mining stocks include Agnico-Eagle Mines (<a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/stocks/aem-stock">AEM</a>) and Newmont Mining Corp (<a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/stocks/nem-stock">NEM</a>).Gold royalty and streaming companies are yet another way to add gold to a portfolio. These companies finance gold mines and receive a percentage of the gold produced.Royalties limit the holder's exposure to the risks associated with directly investing in mines, such as exploration, development, and regulatory compliance. Royalty and streaming companies are a good way to gain exposure to junior mines but still retain liquidity, especially for investors who don't have the ability or resources to conduct due diligence, Muhlenkamp said.Examples of gold royalty companies include Franco-Nevada (<a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/stocks/fnv-stock">FNV</a>) and Wheaton Precious Metals (<a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/stocks/wpm-stock">WPM</a>).

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