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<div type="image" title="For the unversed, trading in futures and options can be akin to setting their hard-earned money on fire" height="900" width="1200" msid="114064202" hostid="261" caption="&amp;lt;p&amp;gt;For the unversed, trading in futures and options can be akin to setting their hard-earned money on fire&amp;lt;/p&amp;gt;"></div> Once upon a time, there thrived a wild, wild land. Here, it was all about super high monetary stakes, lightning-fast trade deals, and bucketloads of money shifting hands every single second. This wilderness lured millions of individuals with the promise of super duper high returns. But, at what cost? Welcome to the unforgiving, ultra-risky wild west of <keyword id="19991165" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Indian-equity-markets" source="keywords">Indian equity markets</keyword> called the <keyword id="145718" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="Futures-and-Options" source="Orion">futures and options</keyword>. Here, everyone seems to just fly right through the bright red-flagged warnings of financial risks to earn even a fraction of these promised returns. Most burn themselves in the process, but carry on nevertheless, as if nothing ever happened. <h2>Chasing the cloudy profits</h2>The data conclusively proves that every 9 out of 10 individuals only lost their hard-earned money in this land. But hey, what do the numbers know? Some hide their losses out of shame, some out of fear. The proponents, meanwhile, proudly boast unusually high returns on their investments, some open social media channels while others encourage their friends and family to take the plunge. Naturally, news of this unstoppable and humongous en-masse migration to the F&amp;O (futures and options) town has reached sheriff <keyword id="19901201" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="SEBI" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="SEBI" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="SEBI">SEBI</keyword>, galvanising them into action. After all, it was time to put a leash on this madness and save the common man. The inhabitants of this town doubled in the last 2 years, from 51 lakh in FY22 to 96 lakh in FY24—99.8% of whom were small and mid-income traders. But profits? Well, that's a different, rather completely absent story. <h2>Que Sera Sera, much?</h2>A recent report by SEBI (Securities and Exchange Board of India) that studied profits and losses made by traders in the equity derivatives segment between FY22-24 exposed the mad mania of futures and options trading in India, especially since the pandemic. Per the report, 91.1% of individual traders, or about 73 lakh traders had only lost money trading in futures and options in FY24. Between FY 22-24, over 1 crore traders, or about 92.8% of individual traders, had lost Rs 2 lakh each. But once bitten, twice shy? Well, not in this case. More than 75% of individuals, who had only made losses trading in F&amp;O in FY22 and FY23, continued to trade vigorously in FY24 as well, without any changes in the bottom line, which remained deep in red and negative. So, then all these traders must be uber-rich, with tons of cash and not much care to spare? Nope. 76% of traders in the F&amp;O space in FY24 had an annual income of less than Rs 5 lakh. 2 years ago, their share stood at 71%. And their choice of poison? Options! In FY24, 60% of traders made losses trading in futures, but a whopping 91.5% burnt their funds trading in options. Mind you, futures are riskier than options. With futures, which require significant capital investment, the buyer and seller both are contractually bound to adhere to the pre-determined strike price of the futures or options contract, irrespective of whether the prevailing prices are higher or lower (and thus, resulting in losses for either the buyer or seller). With options, since this adherence ain't necessary, individuals end up taking debt to take highly leveraged positions while trading here. <h2>Scale of the explosion</h2>Anyone who trades even infrequently will tell you that a demat account is the mitochondria or powerhouse of the trading cell. As of August 2024, India had over 17.1 crore <keyword id="20957284" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="demat-accounts" source="keywords">demat accounts</keyword>, which are a prerequisite for trading in the markets. India is the 9th biggest country in the world, in terms of total demat accounts. Did you know that our demat accounts are at par with the entire population of Bangladesh? Talk about scale! Just 4 years ago, in March 2020, this number was a mere 4 crore. Naturally, the total F&amp;O turnover on both <keyword id="20004725" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="NSE" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="NSE" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="NSE">NSE</keyword> and BSE has hit the roof, and also broken it. As of October 4, 2024, the total futures and options turnover on NSE stood at a massive Rs 4,78,27,27,750.30 crore. Good luck counting the thousands! <table style="border-width: initial; border-style: none;" class="redcator-table-advance"></colgroup><tbody><tr><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">Year </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">Total Turnover (Both Futures and Options) (In Rs Crore) </td></tr><tr><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">2020-21 </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">64,36,03,951.51 </td></tr><tr><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">2021-22 </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">1,69,52,33,134.47 </td></tr><tr><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">2022-23 </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">3,82,23,26,468.06 </td></tr><tr><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">2023-24 </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">7,99,27,67,152.43 </td></tr></tbody><tbody></tbody><tbody></tbody><tbody></tbody></table>Source : NSE Another metric that underlines the meteoric growth of trading in India is the collection of STT or <keyword id="20930760" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Securities-Transaction-Tax" source="keywords">Securities Transaction Tax</keyword>. As of September 2024, India's STT mop-up had gone past Rs 26,000 crore. Traders have to pay STT whenever they buy or sell any security in the market. So, more trading brings in more STT, and hence, more revenue for the government, so they're not really complaining. After all, this is certainly what they'd call enviable growth. As of August 2023, our STT collection stood at about Rs 21,599 crores. And in FY20-21, India's STT collection had been Rs 16,000 crore. If only our salaries also managed to grow at this rate! <h2>So, what's happening?</h2>Two things. One, it's the big bulls who are raking in all the moolah. And it's the younger lot (those aged under 30) who are propping them up for this. In FY24, 43% of individual traders in the market were less than 30 years of age. In just one year, this number has swelled by 12 percentage points from just 31% of individual traders. But who says ageing is bad? Wrinkles and silver hair seemingly have a propensity of incurring lesser losses in the market. In FY24, only 79% of traders aged above 60 years made losses, as compared to 93% of those aged below 30. Small and mid-income traders, which make up 98% of the total trader base, witnessed average losses per person of Rs 65,000 and Rs 1.5 lakh in FY24 in futures and options, respectively. The winner here? Clearly, the big bulls, who declared an annual income of over Rs 1 crore, ended up with average profits of Rs 96,000 per person this year. <h2>What’s the sheriff up to?</h2>The government has finally swung into action, hiking the STT rate for F&amp;O during this year’s budget. Effective October 1, 2024, the STT on futures stands at 0.02%, up from 0.0125%. For options, it was upped to 0.1% versus 0.0625% previously. Small margins, but huge impact oncoming. Says Puneet Sharma- CEO and Fund Manager at Whitespace Alpha, “SEBI aims to enhance market stability while safeguarding investor interests, reflecting the regulator's intent to balance risk management with market participation”. But this might come with its own share of challenges, too. “Stricter norms around leverage, transparency, and capital adequacy could limit the ability of investors to determine their own risk appetite, thereby stifling innovation in trading strategies. Over-regulation in an environment that thrives on strategic flexibility and creativity could dampen the market’s dynamism, affecting India's competitiveness in the global derivatives landscape”, he observes. SEBI recently came out with a set of guidelines that aim to thwart <keyword id="19972907" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="retail-investors" source="keywords">retail investors</keyword>' participation in futures and options and hinder them from taking undue risks. Here's a quick recap of what's to come for the residents of the F&amp;O town Margin Requirements: To battle the high volatility and chaos which is generally seen on expiry days(i.e the last mandated date, post which an option becomes invalid), SEBI will put in place an extreme loss margin (ELM) of 2% for all open short options on the day of expiry. Translation? Traders will need to pony up more cash upfront, leaving them with fewer funds to take on risky bets. It ain't a choice: No more of one expiry every single day! Going ahead, an exchange like BSE or NSE will just be able to offer weekly expiries, that too, only on one benchmark index, as opposed to an entire buffet it currently offers. At present, NSE offers weekly options contracts for its financial index, bank and midcap indices. But say goodbye to this, and hello to derivatives on only 1 index per exchange. Raising the bar: Effective November 30, 2024, the minimum contract value for index derivatives will be upped to Rs 15 lakh, from the present Rs 5-10 lakh. The hope is that by making it ultra-expensive to enter these trades, investors will be dissuaded from taking on risky trades. Pay upfront: Starting February 2025, those trading in options will have to pay the entire options premium upfront, even before their trades are executed. This is because options generally carry very high leverage, and paying a significant sum upfront can force traders to think twice. Invigilation Pro Max: Starting April 1 2025, to make sure that the number of positions for equity index derivatives does not slyly slip over the mandated limit, especially on expiry days when trade volumes are huge, the exchanges will have to take a minimum of 4 position snapshots randomly. The question is, will these injections of sobriety be enough to calm down the steroid-fed bull of the futures and options market in India? Well, only time and market turnover will tell! For more insights into the financial markets and business news, stay tuned to our site and social media handles. And don’t forget to subscribe to Business Insider India’s newsletters for your weekly dose of Simply Put! Disclaimer: The content on this website is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice. We recommend readers consult certified, qualified and registered advisors for professional and personalised financial advice.

SIMPLY PUT: SEBI is on a mission to take on the wild, wild west of futures and options in India. Here’s why, what, and how

Mumbai: The rupee slipped 1 paisa to an all-time low of 84.40 against the US dollar in early trade on Wednesday, as persistent <keyword id="20520117" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="foreign-fund-outflows" source="keywords">foreign fund outflows</keyword> and a muted trend in domestic equities weighed on the local unit. Forex traders said the USDINR pair has shown significant volatility in recent sessions, with the rupee inching closer to its all-time low of 84.40. This downward pressure is largely driven by global factors, particularly the Dollar Index's strengthening. At the interbank foreign exchange, the rupee opened at 84.40 against the greenback, registering a fall of 1 paisa over its previous close. On Tuesday, the rupee fell 1 paisa to a new lifetime low of 84.39 against the US dollar. "It appears that the rupee has established support around the current levels, with depreciation limited near 84.50," CR Forex Advisors MD Amit Pabari said. Pabari further added that the RBI stands tall as the depreciation in the rupee seems to be limited as the <keyword id="19899810" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="Reserve-Bank-of-India" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="Reserve Bank of India" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="Reserve Bank of India">Reserve Bank of India</keyword> (RBI) continues to sell the dollars to protect the sharp depreciation. "For the 5th consecutive week, India's forex reserves declined, possibly due to RBI selling the dollars. Currently, the forex reserves of India stand at USD 682 billion down from the recent all-time high of USD 704 billion," he said. Meanwhile, the dollar index, which gauges the greenback's strength against a basket of six currencies, was trading lower by 0.04 per cent at 105.98. Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, rose 0.25 per cent to USD 72.07 per barrel in futures trade. On the domestic equity market front, Sensex was trading 210.66 points, or 0.27 per cent lower, to 78,464.52 points. The Nifty fell 100.45 points, or 0.42 per cent, to 23,783.00 points. Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) were net sellers in the capital markets on Tuesday, as they offloaded shares worth Rs 3,024.31 crore, according to exchange data. On the macroeconomic front, retail inflation breached the Reserve Bank's upper tolerance level, soaring to a 14-month high of 6.21 per cent in October mainly on account of rising food prices. Inflation based on the consumer price index (CPI) was 5.49 per cent in September and 4.87 per cent in the year-ago month. India's industrial production expanded by 3.1 per cent in September after recording a contraction in the preceding month, as all three major segments -- mining, manufacturing, and power generation -- showed improvement. However, the growth in the Index of Industrial Production (IIP) during the month was lower than 6.4 per cent registered in September 2023.

Rupee falls 1 paisa to all-time low of 84.40 against US dollar in early trade

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Stocks rose Thursday as investors digested strong retail sales data and more earnings.</li><li>Retail sales data showed US consumer spending remains robust, with monthly spending up 0.4%.</li></ul>US stocks climbed on Thursday as traders saw better-than-expected retail sales data and continued to digest strong corporate earnings reports.The Dow Jones Industrial Average added to record levels achieved at Wednesday's close. Bond yields rose, with the 10-year Treasury up six basis points to 4.075%. September's retail sales report showed consumer spending remains strong, with monthly spending up 0.4% from August, just above a Dow Jones consensus estimate of 0.3%.Retail sales climbed 1.7% compared to a year ago, according to Commerce Department data released Thursday.The strong spending data comes on the heels of a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/september-jobs-report-unemployment-rate-nonfarm-payroll-growth-federal-reserve-2024-10">blockbuster September jobs report</a>, and further solidifies assessments that the US economy is strong and that the Federal Reserve may not need to cut rates as steeply or quickly as previously thought. Weekly jobless claims were lower than expected at 241,000, a 19,000 decline from the week before, according to Labor Department data released Thursday. Economists had forecast 260,000 weekly claims. Here's where US indexes stood shortly after the 9:30 a.m. opening bell on Thursday:<ul><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/s&amp;p_500?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">S&amp;P 500</a>: 5,873.45, up 0.53% </li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/dow_jones?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Dow Jones Industrial Average</a>: 43,279.21, up 0.47% (+201.51 points)</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/nasdaq_composite?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Nasdaq composite</a>: 18,523.24, up 0.85% </li></ul>Meanwhile, a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/tsmc-stock-price-q3-earnings-chip-stocks-asml-nvidia-amd-2024-10">highly anticipated report</a> from chipmaker Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company came in strong, showing net income surpassed estimates while net revenue for the quarter rose 36% compared to the same last year."We have talked to our customers all the time, including our hyperscaler customers who are building their own chips. And almost every AI innovator is working with TSMC," TSMC chairman and CEO C.C. Wei said.Shares of TSMC rose 7% after the opening bell, pulling other chip stocks higher. Nvidia was up almost 2%, and AMD was up over 1%.TSMC's optimism about demand for AI tech follows a <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/chipmakers-tumble-asml-guidance-semiconductor-nvidia-chip-growth-2024-10?_gl=1*1isprkj*_ga*MTY3OTgyNjg0MS4xNzIxMDE2MDM2*_ga_E21CV80ZCZ*MTcyOTE2NTYwMS4yODIuMS4xNzI5MTY3OTk1LjM0LjAuMA..">chip sector sell-off</a> earlier this week when chip machine maker ASML slashed its sales guidance on weaker demand from chipmakers.TSMC joins a string of strong earnings reports this week. Morgan Stanley and United Airlines posted strong results on Wednesday. Netflix will report third-quarter results after the close on Thursday. Here's what else is going on Thursday:<ul><li>A number of bank research desks are <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-outlook-sp500-targets-bull-market-goldman-ubs-bmo-2024-10?_gl=1*njfdt3*_ga*MTY3OTgyNjg0MS4xNzIxMDE2MDM2*_ga_E21CV80ZCZ*MTcyOTE2NTYwMS4yODIuMS4xNzI5MTY2MzczLjYwLjAuMA..">boosting their S&amp;P 500 price targets</a> in recent weeks as the bull market charges on.</li><li>China could raise nearly <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-economy-beijing-stimulus-1-trillion-debt-package-fiscal-deficit-2024-10">$1 trillion of fresh debt</a> in the next 3 years to revive its economy, according to a report from Caixin Global.</li><li>The US freight recession is showing <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/author/filip-de-mott">early signs of recovery</a> as trucking company JB Hunt posted a rare earnings beat on Tuesday.</li></ul>In commodities, bonds, and crypto:<ul><li>Oil futures fell. <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price?type=wti">West Texas Intermediate crude</a> dipped 0.2% to $70.22 a barrel. <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Brent crude</a>, the international benchmark, fell 0.3% to $74.01 a barrel.</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/gold-price?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Gold</a> rose 0.33% to $2,700.4 an ounce.</li><li>The 10-year Treasury yield was up six basis points to 4.075%.</li><li><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/currencies/btc-usd">Bitcoin</a> dipped 1.5% to $66,761.</li></ul>

Stock market today: Indexes gain after strong retail sales data

<ul class="summary-list"><li>This post originally appeared in the Insider Today newsletter.</li></ul>Happy Friday! Elections can be stressful, so take some tips from new research on how to lower your blood pressure. <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/lower-your-blood-pressure-5-minutes-exercise-a-day-study-2024-11">Daily short, intense workouts</a> can be your best bet to fight disease and improve longevity.In today's big story, the Fed <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/federal-reserve-cuts-interest-rates-quarter-point-powell-inflation-election-2024-11">cutting interest rates yesterday was never really in doubt</a>. What comes next isn't as clear.What's on deck:<ul><li>Markets: Goldman Sachs announced <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/goldman-sachs-partners-revealed-see-full-list-names-diversity-women-2024-11">its newest class of partners</a>.</li><li>Tech: The stock market is already indicating <a target="_blank" rel="noopener" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/big-tech-winners-losers-trump-election-win-according-to-market-2024-11">winners and losers among Big Tech</a>.</li><li>Business: Hiring experts are predicting <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-win-affect-job-hiring-trends-and-employer-confidence-2024-11">a "Trump bump" for the jobs market</a>.</li></ul>But first, more relief … for now.If this was forwarded to you, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/subscription/newsletter/insider-today">sign up here.</a><h3 id="7fa5f018-5b05-4a37-a8dc-d3f89138bcb3">The big story</h3><h2 id="5fd547b9-ec52-41fc-8e08-4f4b27dd8097">The Fed's new conundrum</h2><div type="image" title="Jerome Powell on top of stock market chart going down." height="900" width="1800" msid="115090330" hostid="261" sizebytes="70080"></div>Americans got a bit more relief from the Fed, but questions are swirling about what the president-elect means for future plans.The Federal Reserve <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/federal-reserve-cuts-interest-rates-quarter-point-powell-inflation-election-2024-11">cut interest rates by 25 basis points Thursday</a>, its second-straight reduction since September in a move that was largely expected. Additional rate cuts aren't as clear, though, as Donald Trump's proposed widespread tariffs <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-inflation-interest-rates-fed-rate-cuts-fomc-meeting-outlook-2024-11">could slow down the Fed's plans</a>.Economists have said Trump's 10-20% blanket tariff on most imported goods will cause inflation to flare up as producers and importers pass the cost of the tax onto consumers. Prior to the election, Nobel economist Paul Krugman said Trump's tariff plans would result in an "inflationary shock that is bigger than almost anything else you could do through federal policy."It's not just speculation from economists. The market is indicating inflation could lead the Fed to keep borrowing rates high. Treasury yields soared the day after the election, a sign Wall Street sees interest rates staying elevated.Interest-rate traders have also recalibrated their expectations. The chances of a 25-point December rate cut went from 83% at the start of the month down to as much as 63% yesterday following the Fed's announcement, according to the CME FedWatch tool. (It currently stands around 75%.)<div type="image" title="Photo of Donald Trump" height="1279" width="1920" msid="115090327" hostid="261" sizebytes="95086"></div>Still, speculating on what could come from a president-elect is a tricky game.Greg McBride, chief financial analyst at <a target="_blank" href="http://Bankrate.com">Bankrate.com</a>, told Insider Today that Fed Chair Jerome Powell didn't indicate a pause in cuts was coming in December during Thursday's press conference. Powell also emphasized the election won't impact the central bank's near-term actions, McBride added."Until there are policy specifics being passed into law, there is nothing for the Fed to put in their economic models and they won't speculate or assume anything in the interim," McBride wrote via email.There's also the question of whether Trump's tariff would be as inflationary as some fear. During his first term, the former president issued tariffs against China that didn't cause prices to spike.Trump's proposals this time around are much more aggressive, but it's not clear what will actually be put in place."Nobody knows what will be implemented and what is just posturing for negotiation," McBride added.Dominique Lapointe, director of macro strategy for Manulife Investment Management, told Insider Today via email the firm's base case is still a 25-point cut in December. The Fed would change course in reaction to tariffs only if they are official and making an impact, meaning the central bank's policy likely wouldn't change until mid-2025, Lapointe added.One thing that is clear: <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/powell-wont-resign-federal-reserve-step-down-trump-election-2024-11">Powell's not leaving</a>.When a reporter asked the Fed leader if he would resign if Trump, who has been critical of him, asked him to step down, his response was simple: "No."<h3 id="77f31a4c-8462-4e3d-a71f-838cb79493fb">News brief</h3><h2 id="1fcd294b-3f53-425f-9f20-4093e8623b59">Top headlines</h2><ul><li>Democrats wished the election was about jobs. <a target="_blank" rel="noopener" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/how-trump-won-election-high-prices-cost-of-living-unemployment-2024-11">Trump's win showed it was about prices</a>.</li><li><a target="_blank" rel="noopener" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-economy-local-government-debt-rescue-trump-us-presidential-election-2024-11">China announced a $1.4 trillion stimulus package</a> to boost its economy on the heels of Trump's election.</li><li>Airbnb reported its earnings. <a target="_blank" rel="noopener" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/airbnb-earnings-shares-most-interesting-things-cohost-2024-11">Here are four highlights</a>.</li><li>Trump said he will divide Russia from China. <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/donald-trump-plan-divide-china-russia-axis-is-likely-fail-2024-11">It's a tough bromance to break</a>.</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/peter-thiel-prediction-correct-election-trump-harris-2024-11">Peter Thiel's 'contrarian'</a> election prediction came true.</li></ul><h2 id="8120060b-ae66-48dc-b149-f0489a30ffa2">3 things in markets</h2><div type="image" title="Photo of MAGA hat on exchange desk" height="655" width="1000" msid="115090331" hostid="261" sizebytes="44410"></div><ol><li>Morningstar thinks you should stay the course with your investment plan. Trump's win sent the stock market surging, but that <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-trade-election-investing-stock-market-strategy-sp500-valuations-morningstar-2024-11">doesn't mean you should rethink your investing strategy</a>, Morningstar Senior US Market Strategist Dave Sekera said. His call for restraint is partly due to how high stock valuations currently are, although he does see opportunity among small-caps.</li><li>The new Goldman execs who just got the call of a lifetime. Goldman Sachs tapped<a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/goldman-sachs-partners-revealed-see-full-list-names-diversity-women-2024-11"> 95 people to join its exclusive partnership</a> on Thursday, a record high under CEO David Solomon. Twenty-six of the new partners are women, a group closely watched after a series of high-profile female partner exits.</li><li>Trump's election might be Citi's saving grace. The bank has spent more than $7.4 billion addressing regulators' concerns, specifically about its data and risk problems. <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-election-citi-jane-fraser-regulators-frc-occ-2024-11">Donald Trump could ease that pain</a>. The president-elect has signaled he'd cut down on Wall Street oversight, previously pledging he'd eliminate 10 rules for each new one.</li></ol><h2 id="f4b54806-7f81-450c-ba32-92560d4fae9b">3 things in tech</h2><div type="image" title="Musk and Trump." height="2499" width="3329" msid="115090332" hostid="261" sizebytes="268836"></div><ol><li>How Elon Musk swung Pennsylvania for Trump. The tech tycoon <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/elon-musk-pennsylvania-america-pac-donald-trump-harris-2024-11">spent millions on the Keystone State</a> to deliver it to Trump, launching a last-minute canvassing effort and untested ground-game techniques. Musk's strategy could usher in a "new era" in campaign spending, one political scientist told BI.</li><li>Big Tech's biggest winners and losers after Trump's victory. Which companies stand to gain the most under a new Trump presidency? BI looked at the two-day stock performance of <a target="_blank" rel="noopener" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/big-tech-winners-losers-trump-election-win-according-to-market-2024-11">many of the largest tech companies to find out</a>.</li><li>Trump's plan to "never ban" TikTok will be tough to fulfill, legal experts say. The former president campaigned on the promise that TikTok would be here to stay. <a target="_blank" rel="noopener" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/donald-trump-block-tiktok-ban-legal-experts-2024-11">But legal experts told BI he's only got two options to try and save it</a> — and neither of them are straightforward.</li></ol><h2 id="9260fa45-d397-4b3c-b4f8-4bb193976216">3 things in business</h2><div type="image" title="Image of Walmart sign outside store" height="1280" width="1920" msid="115090336" hostid="261" sizebytes="228442"></div><ol><li>Retail giants prepare for Trump 2.0. Tariffs are the biggest concern for superstores like Walmart, Target, and Costco. If the president-elect follows through on his campaign promises, consumers could foot the bill of high tariffs through higher prices. On the other hand, tax cuts could spur spending — <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-win-retail-impact-walmart-costco-target-tariffs-tax-cuts-2024-11">but they'd take many months to see results</a>.</li><li>The job market under Trump. Hiring experts expect a "Trump bump" as employers get comfortable posting openings now that the election's outcome is clear. They forecast a postelection hiring rush and <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-win-affect-job-hiring-trends-and-employer-confidence-2024-11">increased demand in some sectors</a>, particularly tech.</li><li>David Zaslav is optimistic about Trump's effect on Big Media. The Warner Bros. Discovery CEO wanted a president who was more open to M&amp;A, since his company has been eyeing consolidation for a while. A second <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/wbd-trump-zaslav-consolidation-earnings-2024-11">Trump administration might provide that opportunity</a>, Zaslav said on WBD's earnings call, but it's too early to be certain.</li></ol><h2 id="1ad7b482-3f4b-44b4-81b6-a864aa386478">In other news</h2><ul><li>The Polymarket 'whale' actually made $85 million, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/polymarket-whale-banked-85-million-profit-trump-president-election-win-2024-11">far more than originally thought</a>.</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/harris-lost-biden-unpopularity-trump-election-2024-11">Harris couldn't escape</a> Biden's unpopularity.</li><li>Investors accuse the ex-CEO of the company that helped take Trump Media public of <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/ex-ceo-patrick-orlando-lawsuit-trump-media-investors-shares-2024-11">stiffing them out of millions of shares</a>.</li></ul><h2 id="9f5d80ac-3466-429f-a50a-2ffbb70c65ff">What's happening today</h2><ul><li>Paramount, Sony, and other companies report earnings.</li><li>Grammy Award nominations are announced.</li></ul>The Insider Today team: Dan DeFrancesco, deputy editor and anchor, in New York. Jordan Parker Erb, editor, in New York. Hallam Bullock, senior editor, in London. Ella Hopkins, associate editor, in London. Amanda Yen, fellow, in New York. Milan Sehmbi, fellow, in London.

Fed cuts rates again, but Trump's tariff plan sparks inflation fears and market uncertainty

<ul class="summary-list"><li>This post originally appeared in the Insider Today newsletter.</li></ul>Good morning. Milton has strengthened once again into a Category 5 hurricane. Gas stations across Florida are already <a target="_blank" rel="noopener" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/florida-gas-stations-out-of-fuel-before-hurricane-milton-landfall-2024-10">running out of fuel</a> as millions of people try to flee.In today's big story, we got our first interest-rate cut, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/fed-interest-rate-cuts-outlook-economy-recession-no-landing-borrowing-2024-10">but it doesn't feel like it for many consumers</a>.What's on deck:<ul><li>Markets: Roblox is the latest target of <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/roblox-stock-price-short-seller-hindenburg-report-gaming-inflated-metrics-2024-10">short-seller Hindenburg Research</a>.</li><li>Tech: The DOJ is considering asking a judge to <a target="_blank" rel="noopener" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/google-search-antitrust-case-doj-remedy-alphabet-2024-10">break up Google</a>.</li><li>Business: Walt Disney World will temporarily <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/disney-world-shut-down-hurricane-milton-florida-orlando-parks-2024-10">close its doors</a> for Hurricane Milton.</li></ul>But first, we're canceling the landing.If this was forwarded to you, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/subscription/newsletter/insider-today">sign up here.</a><h3 id="7fa5f018-5b05-4a37-a8dc-d3f89138bcb3">The big story</h3><h2 id="5fd547b9-ec52-41fc-8e08-4f4b27dd8097">So much for the help</h2><div type="image" title="Business person in a suit holding scissors, preparing to cut strings suspending a stack of cash, with a group of people standing below" height="1500" width="2000" msid="114087130" hostid="261" sizebytes="264596"></div>The US economy is having an Instagram vs. reality moment.Last month's interest-rate cuts were supposed to kick off a new era. After two years of battling inflation, the Federal Reserve finally claimed victory. More rate cuts were coming, which meant lower borrowing costs for everyone.<a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/fed-interest-rate-cuts-outlook-economy-recession-no-landing-borrowing-2024-10">But the relief many were hoping for isn't materializing</a>, writes Business Insider's Jennifer Sor. Let's break down why.We finally got an interest-rate cut, but borrowing costs are still high. What gives? First off, last month's interest-rate cut wasn't going to provide immediate relief. It takes time for cuts to trickle down to consumers. The Fed also telegraphed the cut, so the market started pricing it in.That seems fair, but borrowing rates are still rising in some cases. Yes, the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/mortgage-rate-increase-since-federal-reserve-cut-interest-rates-housing-2024-10">has gone up 47 basis points since the Fed cut rates</a>, writes BI's Matthew Fox.So the Fed cut rates but borrowing costs went up? How is that possible? You can thank the 10-year Treasury yield, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/economy-outlook-impact-of-rate-cuts-10-year-treasury-yields-2024-9">which is a key benchmark used by</a> lenders. It went above 4% this week for the first time since August.I'm confused. Why is there such a discrepancy between the two? The Fed's rate is focused on the short-term while the 10-year Treasury reflects a longer-term view (hence the name). As a result, the 10-year bond yield can diverge from the Fed's benchmark rate.Gulp So what does the 10-year Treasury rising mean for the economy? Big picture, it's a good thing. Thanks to a stellar jobs report, investors have a positive view of the economy's future. But the downside is we shouldn't expect the slew of rate cuts investors were banking on. The economy will likely avoid a recession and not need the help.Is this a soft landing or a hard landing? Neither. It's considered a "no landing" because the economy remains strong, but in a way that risks reigniting inflation, which would hamstring the prospect of future stimulative rate cuts.What's with all the aviation metaphors? I don't know.OK, so at this rate, will I ever be able to buy a house? It's honestly not as bad as it seems. BI's James Rodriguez, who's covered the housing market for a while, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/housing-market-ice-age-homebuyers-mortgage-rates-spring-real-estate-2024-10">has a piece on why the industry's ice age is starting to thaw</a>. There was a 34% year-over-year increase in active listings in September. More inventory will help unstick the economy.<h3 id="77f31a4c-8462-4e3d-a71f-838cb79493fb">News brief</h3><h2 id="1fcd294b-3f53-425f-9f20-4093e8623b59">Top headlines</h2><ul><li>The Kremlin says <a target="_blank" rel="noopener" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/kremlin-says-trump-sent-putin-covid-tests-pandemic-denies-calls-2024-10">Trump sent Putin COVID tests</a> during the pandemic, but denies subsequent calls.</li><li>Boeing's negotiations with union leaders <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/boeing-strike-negotiations-union-leaders-break-down-after-two-days-2024-10">break down 2 days after restarting</a>.</li><li>Exclusive: AI cloud startup Ori is in talks to raise up to $80 million in funding, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/ori-gpu-ai-startup-talks-raise-funding-nvidia-2024-10">sources say</a>.</li><li>A surprising company <a target="_blank" rel="noopener" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/robotaxi-ridesharing-tesla-waymo-uber-2024-10">might beat Elon Musk</a> in the robotaxi race.</li><li>Influencers are swiping a new black card at <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/influencer-marketing-startup-oth-network-pays-creators-products-services-2024-10">restaurants, spas, and fitness studios</a>.</li><li>I don't allow Roblox in my house. <a target="_blank" rel="noopener" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/roblox-not-allowed-my-child-kids-why-explained-2024-10">Here's why</a>.</li></ul><h2 id="8120060b-ae66-48dc-b149-f0489a30ffa2">3 things in markets</h2><div type="image" title="Photo of wave hitting Florida park" height="1000" width="2000" msid="114087135" hostid="261" sizebytes="112966"></div><ol><li>The Hurricane Milton trade is in full effect, according to US natural gas futures. Energy traders are betting the storm barreling toward Tampa will cause power outages in multiple states. <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/hurricane-milton-power-outage-florida-electricity-natural-gas-prices-futures-2024-10">Futures on US natural gas have dropped 8% over the past few days</a> as power plants are expected to be left idling as demand evaporates.</li><li>A short-seller takes aim at Roblox for "lying to investors." Hindenburg Research accused the online gaming platform of <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/roblox-stock-price-short-seller-hindenburg-report-gaming-inflated-metrics-2024-10">inflating its user numbers</a> by including bots and players with multiple accounts. It also called Roblox a "pedophile hellscape," claiming child users are exposed to grooming and pornography. A Roblox spokesperson said in a statement it "totally" rejected the claims made in the report.</li><li>Bank of America is bullish on stock gains ahead of this earnings season. "The bar isn't high," BofA analysts said in a Tuesday note. Stocks should rise as long as companies report they're <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stocks-q3-earnings-lower-rates-stocks-returns-outlook-bofa-2024-10">feeling good about lower rates</a>.</li></ol><h2 id="f4b54806-7f81-450c-ba32-92560d4fae9b">3 things in tech</h2><div type="image" title="Vinod Khosla" height="900" width="1200" msid="114087136" hostid="261" sizebytes="76966"></div><ol><li>OpenAI's exec exodus might actually be a good thing, Vinod Khosla says. The legendary investor backing OpenAI has <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/openai-vinod-khosla-fixing-ai-image-2024-10">plenty of confidence in the startup</a>, even after multiple high-profile exits. He also thinks the AI industry is catching strays from "Luddites" — those who think the tech is a slippery slope into a Westworld-ian apocalypse.</li><li>The DOJ may seek to break up Google. After a major antitrust lawsuit against Google, a federal judge ruled that it illegally monopolized online search. Now, prosecutors are proposing "behavioral and structural remedies." If enacted by a judge, the changes could <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/google-search-antitrust-case-doj-remedy-alphabet-2024-10">force a major reorganization or even a breakup</a> of some of Google's basic businesses, including its search engine.</li><li>Where are the Gen Z Mark Zuckerbergs? Gen Zers, aged 13 to 27, haven't produced any big-name tech founders like previous generations. But don't just blame it on Zoomers' blasé attitudes toward work — <a target="_blank" href="https://businessinsider.com/gen-z-tech-founder-gap-zuckerberg-bezos-holmes-2024-10">there's a bigger reason</a>.</li></ol><h2 id="9260fa45-d397-4b3c-b4f8-4bb193976216">3 things in business</h2><div type="image" title="A screenshot of zara.com" height="1500" width="2000" msid="114087133" hostid="261" sizebytes="93076"></div><ol><li>Zara's bizarre website is the secret to its success. The site, which feels more like a magazine spread than an online retailer, is routinely roasted for being "virtually unusable." But experts say <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/zara-website-memes-mocked-secret-success-aspirational-luxury-consumers-2024-10">there's a method to Zara's madness</a>: It's meant to project an upscale image, distancing itself from other fast-fashion brands.</li><li>The "happiest place on earth" takes a rain check. There are literally storm clouds forming over Florida's family-friendly amusement parks, as the state braces for Hurricane Milton. It's a <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/disney-world-shut-down-hurricane-milton-florida-orlando-parks-2024-10">rare occasion for Disney World</a>, which has only closed its gates nine times in more than 50 years.</li><li>Tesla executives are hitting the exits. In the past week, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/elon-musk-loses-4-top-executives-ahead-of-robotaxi-event-2024-10">four of Elon Musk's direct reports have announced they're leaving</a>, or have already left, the company. Their departures come ahead of Robotaxi Day tomorrow, where Musk is tasked with convincing investors that Tesla is more than just a car company.</li></ol><h2 id="9f5d80ac-3466-429f-a50a-2ffbb70c65ff">What's happening today</h2><ul><li>Hurricane Milton is projected to hit the west coast of Florida, including the Tampa Bay area.</li><li>Federal Open Market Committee's September meeting minutes and forecast published.</li></ul>The Insider Today team: Dan DeFrancesco, deputy editor and anchor, in New York. Jordan Parker Erb, editor, in New York. Hallam Bullock, senior editor, in London. Milan Sehmbi, fellow, in London. Amanda Yen, fellow, in New York.

Why the interest-rate cut isn't delivering the relief consumers were hoping for

<ul class="summary-list"><li>America's post-pandemic shopping boom appears to be winding down.</li><li>Consumers are feeling the pain of accumulated price increases and are pickier with what they splurge on.</li></ul>America's wild, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/hate-spending-consumers-economic-sentiment-retail-sales-inflation-gdp-growth-2024-4">multi-year shopping spree</a> has come to an end — and retailers who got used to Americans dropping cash on just about everything are in a tough spot.Companies are now grappling with the emergence of a more <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/consumer-spending-decline-how-retailers-respond-inflation-prices-walmart-costco-2024-6#:~:text=US%20consumer%20spending%20%E2%80%94%20especially%20on,%2C%20restaurants%2C%20and%20other%20experiences.">price-conscious consumer</a> than they have seen in years. Many people have drawn down their excess savings from the pandemic and are becoming painfully aware of the accumulated price increases, even as inflation has come down from multi-decade highs seen in the middle of 2022.According to a survey conducted by McKinsey &amp; Company, 76% of US consumers said they expected to "<a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/consumer-packaged-goods/our-insights/the-state-of-the-us-consumer">trade down</a>" over the third quarter, which includes things like delaying purchases, searching for discounts, or opting for a buy now, pay later plan at checkout.It's not that Americans have stopped spending. US retail sales came in stronger than expected in July, with Americans spending more overall compared to the prior month, according to <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.census.gov/retail/sales.html">Census</a> data.But consumers are flashing signs that they're way more eager to bargain hunt, and more picky on what they splurge on, according to Ted Rossman, a senior industry analyst at Bankrate.Americans are still willing to <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-consumer-spending-international-travel-entertainment-surge-savings-2024-3">shell out for experiences</a>, Rossman said, pointing to success among airlines and travel-oriented firms. However, they seem to have tired out on goods. Around 40% of consumers said they planned to pare back spending on accessories, home decor, jewelry, and furniture, per McKinsey's survey."It's like, people are going to spend, but they're only going to spend when they feel like there's really value there," Rossman told Business Insider.Customers have likely refined their spending habits, with more Americans now searching for high-quality products at a good value, according to Simeon Siegel, a senior retail and ecommerce analyst at BMO. That's why firms at the low-end — like <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/mcdonalds-expensive-prices-too-high-fast-food-restaurant-falling-sales-2024-7">McDonald's</a> — as well as on the high-end — like <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/starbucks-lvmh-loreal-declining-sales-china-earnings-consumer-luxury-retail-2024-7">LVMH</a> — are struggling, he said. For many retailers that saw an across-the-board boom in profits amid post-pandemic revenge shopping, it's the end of an era, and companies are scrambling to figure out how to navigate the new world.<a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.challengergray.com/blog/cnbc-retail-ceo-turnover-soars-and-fewer-women-hold-top-jobs-in-the-industry/">CEO turnover</a> in the retail industry more than doubled last year, with the sector notching the highest number of CEO change-ups in four years, according to Challenger, Gray &amp; Christmas.Most firms are also on high-alert for how consumers are reacting to higher prices. 86% of consumer staples firms in the S&amp;P 500 mentioned "<a target="_blank" class="" href="https://insight.factset.com/fewer-sp-500-companies-discussing-inflation-on-earnings-calls-for-7th-straight-quarter">inflation</a>" in their first quarter earnings call, according to data from FactSet.Some retailers, like Walmart and Target, have turned to <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/stores-cutting-prices-summer-list-walmart-target-amazon-aldi-walgreens-2024-6">aggressively slashing prices</a> — a sign that stores are getting more desperate in their efforts to get shoppers in the door, Siegel said."When the consumer had a wallet full of cash handed to them, they didn't have to be as thoughtful. They didn't have to hold back. And so everyone benefited. We're now back in an environment where good retailers, strong brands that offer compelling value … will benefit," Siegel said.<h2 id="2d50d303-346d-40f3-83e6-620eeca3d56c">Picky shoppers</h2>It's a stark turnaround from several years ago, when Americans under stay-at-home orders and flush with stimulus cash were buying just about everything.But those consumers have largely spent down their pile of extra cash, with household excess savings likely having been <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.frbsf.org/research-and-insights/blog/sf-fed-blog/2024/05/03/pandemic-savings-are-gone-whats-next-for-us-consumers/#:~:text=We%20estimate%20that%20excess%20savings,over%20the%20subsequent%202%C2%BD%20years.">depleted by the first quarter of 2024</a>, according to a projection from the San Francisco Fed.And consumers — especially those in the lower- to middle-income bracket — are showing signs that they're having trouble dealing with the higher cost of living. Less than half of middle-class Americans rated their personal finances as "excellent" or "good," and two-thirds of middle-class Americans said they believed their income was falling behind the cost of living, according to a second-quarter survey conducted by <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.primerica.com/public/Fact_Sheet_Primerica_Financial_Security_Monitor_Q2_2024.pdf">Primerica</a>.Inflation has cooled from its highs several years ago, but the increased selectiveness among consumers will likely continue for the foreseeable future, Rossman and Siegel predicted, due to the fact that it takes time for people's perception of the economy to change."You could correctly say, oh, inflation's come way down, but people's rents are up, people's grocery bills are up," Rossman said. "It's going to take a while to unwind some of that."In the meantime, that could mean more pain for retailers, Siegel said, speculating that many were caught by surprise by the shift in consumer sentiment.Investors are already feeling uneasy. Retail stocks are struggling, with SPDR S&amp;P retail exchange-traded fund falling more than 5% over the past six months."Companies either had product or they didn't, consumers either had stimulus or they didn't," Siegel said of pandemic times, noting that most retailers were able to succeed during the pandemic so long as they had inventory hitting the shelves. "I think we're back to an environment where there are winners or losers."For the weakest or most indebted retailers out there, it could mean that their businesses will continue to shrink, Siegel said, though he noted he wasn't necessarily predicting a wave of company failures."I think that the businesses, the management teams that plan only for good times are the management teams that won't be around for very long," he added.

America's shopping spree is over and retailers are facing a new world of cautious consumers

<ul class="summary-list"><li>US stock futures broadly rose on Friday as declining retail sales offset inflation fears.</li><li>S&amp;P and Nasdaq futures climbed, while the 10-year Treasury yield and dollar were almost flat.</li></ul>US stocks were primed to open higher on Friday as signs of softening consumer demand tempered concerns of stubborn inflation.<a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/futures/s&amp;p-500-futures">S&amp;P 500 futures</a> were up 0.2% shortly after 5 a.m. ET, building on the benchmark stock index's 0.6% gain on Thursday that saw it <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-news-today-dow-retail-sales-investors-economy-finance-2024-2">close at a record</a> 5,030 points. <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/futures/nasdaq-100-futures">Nasdaq 100 futures</a> climbed 0.6%, while <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/futures/dow-futures">Dow Jones Industrial Average futures</a> slid by 0.1%.Meanwhile, the key <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/rates/u-s--rates-10-years?miRedirects=1">10-year Treasury yield</a> inched up to 4.264%, close to a two-month high. The <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/us-dollar-index">US Dollar Index</a> was almost flat at around 104, well above its December low of under 101.Wall Street was rattled this week after headline inflation in January <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/inflation-cpi-consumer-price-index-january-housing-food-energy-prices-2024-2#:~:text=Inflation%20comes%20in%20hotter%20than%20expected&amp;text=The%20consumer%20price%20index%20rose,month%20over%20month%20in%20January.">didn't drop below 3%</a> as widely predicted. But retail sales slid by a larger-than-expected 0.8% last month, government data revealed on Thursday, helping to allay fears of an overheated economy and persistently high interest rates.Ipek Ozkardeskaya, a senior analyst at Swissquote Bank, suggested in a morning note that investors would have celebrated strong retail sales too, as they'd view it as fresh evidence that a recession has been avoided."We are coming to a point where the economic data becomes meaningless," she said. "Whatever the data prints, the US stock market finds a positive narrative to keep the rally going. It's, of course, blind optimism; investors are blinded by the brilliance of the rate cuts at the tunnel's end.""Today, the US will reveal the latest producer price update," she continued. "The producer price inflation is expected to have slowed in January. And if it didn't, it doesn't matter."Companies slated to report <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/earnings-calendar">earnings</a> later include TC Energy, Vulcan Materials, and Cinemark.On the <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/economic-calendar">economic front</a>, Wall Street will be looking out for not just producer price data, but figures for housing starts in January, and scheduled comments from two Federal Reserve officials, Michael Barr and Mary Daly.

Stock market today: S&P and Nasdaq futures rise as retail sales dip calms inflation fears

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Fed Governor Christopher Waller says recent data shows the Fed should ease more cautiously.</li><li>Waller pointed to data on employment, income, and growth, as well as sticky inflation.</li></ul>The Federal Reserve should pump the brakes a bit after its jumbo interest rate cut, according to comments from Governor Christopher Waller on Monday.Waller suggested future cuts will likely be less aggressive as the central bank sees signs of a hot economy."While we do not want to overreact to this data or look through it, I view the totality of the data as saying monetary policy should proceed with more caution on the pace of rate cuts than was needed at the September meeting," Waller said at a conference at Stanford University on Monday.Waller's comments come after the Fed cut interest rates by a jumbo 50 basis points last month as it shifted its focus from fighting inflation to propping up the labor market.Waller said recent data, though, shows an economy that's still hot."The data is signaling that the economy may not be slowing as much as desired," he said.He pointed to recent data on employment, inflation, income and gross domestic product. The September jobs report showed strong employment after posting weak numbers over the summer, while inflation has proved stickier than expected with last week's consumer price index coming in slightly higher than forecasts.Meanwhile, economic growth has been strong, with second quarter GDP up 3%, while gross domestic income was revised up from 1.3% to 3.4%. "These revisions suggest that the economy is much stronger than previously thought, with little indication of a major slowdown in economic activity," Waller said.Waller said he will be watching closely for any further data that shows the Fed should ease less aggressively."I will be watching to see whether data, due out before our next meeting, on inflation, the labor market and economic activity confirms or undercuts my inclination to be more cautious about loosening monetary policy," he said.Waller's comments come as the recent mixed data points have fueled <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/fed-interest-rate-cuts-outlook-economy-recession-no-landing-borrowing-2024-10">expectations for a "no-landing,"</a> in which the economy will continue to grow but make it harder for the Fed to cut rates as inflation stays elevated.Traders will be eagerly watching the upcoming <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-economy-outlook-retail-sales-no-landing-inflation-jobs-report-2024-10">September retail sales data</a>, due Thursday, for further signs of a no-landing if Americans' spending comes in strong.Markets are currently pricing in a 25-basis point cut at the Fed's November meeting, with a smaller chance the central bank leaves the target rate unchanged, according to the <a target="_blank" href="https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html">CME FedWatch tool</a>. Investors expect cuts totaling about 125 basis points next year.

Fed Governor Waller says 'more caution' needed on rate cuts after data showing a hot economy

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Indexes rose Thursday as investors cheered in a surprise increase in retail sales and lower jobless claims. </li><li>Retail sales jumped 1% in July, surpassing analyst expectations of 0.3%.</li></ul>Indexes rose Thursday as investors priced in an influx of new data on retail sales and jobless claims following the week's encouraging data on inflation. Retail sales were up 1% in July, the Commerce Department said Thursday. That increase, led by spending in the auto and electronics sectors, surpassed expectations of 0.3% from analysts surveyed by Dow Jones."Today's retail sales numbers were a blowout versus consensus, but more importantly it should lay to rest (at least for the moment) all of the doom and gloom that was expressed at the beginning of this month," Chris Zaccarelli, head of investments at Independent Advisor Alliance, said in a Thursday note.Meanwhile, jobless claims last week came in below estimates at 227,000, a 7,000 fall from the week prior. The reading should continue to soothe fears of a coming wave of unemployment after July's jobs data was weaker than expected. Treasury yields rose on the new data, with the 10-year bond yield up 12 basis points to 3.947% as investors dialed back expectations for a jumbo 50 basis point rate cut from the Fed next month. The rebound in retail and upbeat labor data follows a day after consumer inflation figures released Wednesday showed inflation cooled to 2.9% in July, its lowest level in over three years. The Bureau of Labor Statistics said that <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/housing-costs-inflation-cpi-consumer-price-index-shelter-real-estate-2024-8#:~:text=Housing%20costs%20are%20the%20big,its%20lowest%20level%20since%202021.">sticky housing inflation accounted for 90% of the rise in core CPI</a>, making it the biggest factor keeping inflation high.The inflation numbers are still above the Fed's 2% target, but steady progress is being made as it looks to cool the economy without causing a dramatic spike in the unemployment rate. Investors see a 100% chance that the Fed cuts rates in September, with a 65% chance of 25 basis points and a 36% chance of 50 basis, according to the <a target="_blank" href="https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html">CME FedWatch tool</a>.Here's where US indexes stood shortly after the 9:30 a.m. opening bell on Thursday:<ul><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/s&amp;p_500?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">S&amp;P 500</a>: 5,512.09, up 1.04%</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/dow_jones?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Dow Jones Industrial Average</a>: 40,476.15, up 1.17% (+468 points)</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/nasdaq_composite?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Nasdaq composite</a>: 17,415.29, up 1.3%</li></ul>Here's what else is going on today:<ul><li>After selling half its stake in Apple, Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway is <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/warren-buffett-berkshire-hathaway-ulta-beauty-heico-apple-stock-portfolio-2024-8">betting on a glow-up for Ulta Beauty</a> with a $266 million stake.</li><li>China's population decline is having a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-population-falling-aging-demographic-economy-slowdown-marriage-birth-rates">widespread impact on the world's second largest economy</a> as marriages, diamond sales, and retail spending drop.</li><li>Borrowers are rushing to <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/mortgage-rates-30-year-refinance-applications-real-estate-housing-market-2024-8">refinance their mortgages</a> as rates tumble to their lowest level in over a year.</li></ul>In commodities, bonds, and crypto:<ul><li>Oil futures rose. <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price?type=wti">WTI crude</a> increased 1.6% to $78.17 a barrel. <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Brent crude</a>, the international benchmark, rose 1.5% to $80.95 a barrel.</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/gold-price?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Gold</a> rose 0.32% to $2,487.50 per ounce.</li><li>The 10-year Treasury yield rose 12 basis points to 3.947%.</li><li><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/currencies/btc-usd">Bitcoin</a> rose 0.37% to $57,592.39.</li></ul>

Stock market today: Indexes rise after retail sales boosts confidence on the consumer and the economy

<ul class="summary-list"><li>This post originally appeared in the Insider Today newsletter.</li></ul>Hello there! We're a month away from the end of summer, but that's not stopping Starbucks from breaking out the flannels. <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/starbucks-pumpkin-spice-latte-season-begins-early-2024-8">Pumpkin Spice Latte season starts today</a> with the rest of the chain's fall menu. In today's big story, all eyes are on Jackson Hole, Wyoming, as <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/interest-rate-cuts-wall-street-how-much-jackson-hole-fed-2024-8">experts look for clues about how big of an interest-rate cut to expect</a>.What's on deck:<ul><li>Markets: When investing, the best bet might be <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/investor-with-seven-figure-stocks-etfs-portfolio-shares-barbell-strategy-2024-8">going big and playing it safe</a>.</li><li>Tech: We'd like to report to HR…the number of <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/hr-software-tech-companies-employees-productivity-workday-oracle-adp-2024-8">HR apps we need to use at work</a>.</li><li>Business: Influencers have <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/influencers-dnc-democratic-national-convention-traditional-media-journalist-digital-strategy-2024-8">descended upon the DNC</a> in droves.</li></ul>But first, small, medium, or large?If this was forwarded to you, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/subscription/newsletter/insider-today">sign up here.</a><h3 id="3060a2f0-450d-4862-b464-78ea3aa264db">The big story</h3><h2 id="135069ab-c018-452f-a263-d2db0eae52d3">Cutting time</h2><div type="image" title="Scissors cutting a $100 bill" height="1000" width="2000" msid="112715224" hostid="261" sizebytes="232704"></div>It's not a matter of if. It's a matter of how much.That's the thinking around interest-rate cuts heading into the Fed's annual summer symposium kicking off today in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. The event includes Friday's highly anticipated speech from Fed Chair Jerome Powell.Rate cuts are a lock for the Fed's next meeting in September. But there's still plenty of intrigue. Instead of wondering if they'll come, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/interest-rate-cuts-wall-street-how-much-jackson-hole-fed-2024-8">experts are focused on how deep they'll go</a>, writes Business Insider's Ayelet Sheffey.According to CME's FedWatch tool, which tracks the probability of the Fed's decision, a standard quarter-point cut is the odds-on favorite. But the chance of a larger cut of 50 basis points has gained steam throughout the week, with the tool giving it about a 31% chance.New data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics released Wednesday only muddied the waters. The report indicated job growth from April 2023 through March 2024 was worse than previously reported, with a downward revision of <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/economy-added-818000-fewer-jobs-ed-yardeni-says-dont-worry-2024-8">more than 800,000 jobs</a>.It's the largest downward revision in over a decade (bad), but it's also not entirely unexpected (good). Experts were predicting a drop <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/job-market-revisions-shake-up-fed-stock-market-this-week-2024-8">as big as a million jobs</a>.It's another example of the gray area the economy has existed in for the past year, bouncing between fears of a full-blown recession to belief in the possibility of a soft landing.<div type="image" title="Jerome Powell in front of a bar and line graph" height="1500" width="2000" msid="112715228" hostid="261" sizebytes="283498"></div>That's why Powell's keynote address at 10 a.m. EDT will draw the most interest.The speech has <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/fed-interest-rate-cute-powell-jackson-hole-signal-us-economy-2024-8">a history of being a big one for Powell</a>, writes BI's Huileng Tan. Two years ago he made clear the Fed was taking a hawkish approach to get the economy in shape, a promise he certainly made good on.Claudia Sahm, the creator of the recession indicator <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/claudia-sahm-rule-profile-recession-indicator-unemployment-rate-interest-rates-2024-8">that sent the market into a tizzy</a>, recently analyzed Powell's <a target="_blank" href="https://stayathomemacro.substack.com/p/looking-back-to-look-forward-jackson">previous Jackson Hole speeches</a>. What she found was Powell's fondness for citing lessons from previous monetary policies, which isn't always helpful considering how unique the current economy is.Still, Powell's unlikely to tip his hand too much lest he send the market skyrocketing or into a tailspin. He hasn't wavered on his mission of bringing inflation down. Even in the face of failing banks, a looming presidential election, and a mini-meltdown earlier this month, he's avoided knee-jerk reactions.Instead, the speech will likely offer some vague clues about the Fed's future plans that are enough to pique interest but fall short of guarantees. Talk of continuing to monitor the data, a go-to Powellism over the past year, will likely make an appearance.In short, expect just enough hedging to keep the market on its leash until September.<h3 id="895c7a88-fc45-4f38-a52b-bc445d936764">News brief</h3><h2 id="45c8f3c9-51be-4a3f-ae10-1dd47e8cb9a6">Top headlines</h2><ul><li>Tech tycoon <a target="_blank" rel="noopener" href="https://l.businessinsider.com/a/click?_t=c8e10479a20f45bba5aad6c5f6fbb009&amp;_m=15274aa6367848459e6854ae545014aa&amp;_e=LdgKwvCZRzWNn0zsmk54GFkvkx5qDH83a_CwpJqUXJ7q27S8d7aywuj_FuMAZWE9kj8wodcjpFqedr2cUXRY4ac17SVFcKUGisq1SRwKt9y6hD0nLV95a1umRyBW-Jb2zcpzOJT1Qw1Zie-1yxZEPBEAXC6bzD6OuQEOser3OrQKRHHk3sGMVhcH0rjPZZDpijUXD6UtoF8a0TkPaG5s7OYoByk8J7aQE7PrcRWmNCY1g4qrw9iWNMhE2n47Hmn7DjZh_6YbIMOgFj4i2XuzMARJf9-2UzDRWgoVJOgyNGKuncAnC6fj0JuFttdhJ0LkNhruPtIr3cSGvANhkFWpFuG_CloIA2CfYgjZiwRYGYjZNo0CC0OpyLz_IQLzJ2DjvrDnc1PyeQXdqTysATR5TwtIxwOCttdcYLg0UbEy6azBuQUEM8i6BvWezmBSzv4Vs03vx55uvVG3_5hGo_4tPQ%3D%3D">Mike Lynch among the dead</a> in superyacht wreck off the Italian coast.</li><li>The GOP speakers, Bill Clinton, and Oprah are <a target="_blank" href="https://l.businessinsider.com/a/click?_t=c8e10479a20f45bba5aad6c5f6fbb009&amp;_m=15274aa6367848459e6854ae545014aa&amp;_e=LdgKwvCZRzWNn0zsmk54GFkvkx5qDH83a_CwpJqUXJ52btt0xZNwJalRIeO492tTwzvFloYDdPDmP8_2wVVnhFqoEkMZ-rt8ddUaG7lTtEHg_RgXdT3MOoySjM7K0fw-W6BNtm29wXQRdNCWIoqmBdwC1MDjFDpvTpfE6b6yTzpuR5vHP9KyVsiE7CofVALzJXfRtZ2VuJhJx6DXWAhk_PIoGbUHWuBQ_rYjHXI0k6FdyA-FxIpfRZc-VDYPIrfD5vSDpefpuznrjRxop52R07BbniGq-FJzwQRCfjGxPfDt3cV_YsCR_-PN7Nc12lNomFoqgnMAn7Y5dllVppQDvDVg8_dAntFicGz05NsA0SIc_dSdHKcHVISXO4z7Na0HwfDSYAhRw7b_8VqK96cR5EFRd6Cqd0imDLzvY75YHK7gs7rHTK6mnRDq2PAVhYP-ubE4uihgmYx6spG6F2KvDA%3D%3D">making it clear what the Democrats are after</a>.</li><li>A judge who overturned a $72 million verdict against Boeing disclosed he bought and sold Boeing stock while hearing the case — <a target="_blank" href="https://l.businessinsider.com/a/click?_t=c8e10479a20f45bba5aad6c5f6fbb009&amp;_m=15274aa6367848459e6854ae545014aa&amp;_e=LdgKwvCZRzWNn0zsmk54GFkvkx5qDH83a_CwpJqUXJ7qNRaGQrvkZllpQrhjm-wHdbRajUENZvTOePmsdSq8kB1u1H3IuxZ4TtFhsuq-CTxEG262aJ5UEjpu81GsnoaDVE9qT9c84peypiE1hPz3CeD1t-gKTgqJel9c9FrBrd8IjG8t-CTfTatmYZBPes0G_6Nqav6sXGZlg1qJWEzGgF9qhFU8k3pzFSyNekP9OBVE4rFsZdJu-44t07UpmfhlLfXnrsBSBVmO5n_HWiWAD4dFoV7R2aNrLUxXHQQarohiob3C9OnPKlrkahebdQzlvKNLPvGRZ056nyFQSFs-sO7jMMfRtBpT6WINZN4GpYIhjTnfTTAyxVkV7gqoR1cCFe0_s_zrzKahlSOSg1Gh-1Z7RgJgoBHzJMlBGXCp6qVXC7W-VTAUZqlTghsTKpzL">but says his wife's IRA was to blame</a>.</li><li>A $5 billion scandal is rocking <a target="_blank" href="https://l.businessinsider.com/u/click?_t=c8e10479a20f45bba5aad6c5f6fbb009&amp;_m=15274aa6367848459e6854ae545014aa&amp;_e=LdgKwvCZRzWNn0zsmk54GAlxH3C4G2n8letC6PbLmqHokQPkvdWXg7Q4_qoXBpLxR9e9q1-3XMQa0wgHZNAXBC5P8Q8I25knGeUp3hYt3Taw1XNP0FRdL8UIZyndSQeCuNpXNO28Zb3OXmDdCvU5ocBbCHW69UkexPakTazZrjzqX5XFjEgoaFeJaS-VLYoBosgj_OO3IxGi1mpxjGZL3q87bshlz-3-SsBuNtAOXX_fEc1BdB44xpTXCpmOG-9EM9N929ppatPgTvedU4eNfvp56M-Yg98wIlB-HVynbL331xXoew86oPi6-53DrHF7MIU37LVf_Oza5CUUOpNPKwrbc0JMzpgUXGBwVdFErVp9_DCLTWertvgz7RHDQjHRkoAeK35ac944mdOvG-gjGy2IAXw3fECi9wdHEAJfEDX-ttY1AHXW_iluFF4XqF6THAVdtIeqnzsFFHbV2dnkQAhzwf1ImATOhe6wJnGiwPPFJw3CDSJ3NwUxMTwHvxfd">Germany's carbon credit market</a>.</li><li>Target's plan to lock in shoppers <a target="_blank" href="https://l.businessinsider.com/a/click?_t=c8e10479a20f45bba5aad6c5f6fbb009&amp;_m=15274aa6367848459e6854ae545014aa&amp;_e=LdgKwvCZRzWNn0zsmk54GFkvkx5qDH83a_CwpJqUXJ4rOP5ZJp1ZubrnyMVMJUSEDjOOJvXCakAd2epxLpz2PPJm_j8Hghr_-0prwtC6T67aZN57Be9Wg_pTaizL253ehtU9pyGlV6a3tH-fqEnTyiH1ge1UhLnOcqvSMGCQueLTax6BJyECz-YX0nAeAoonZfbGp8A_iB8oga824L0j3sExeX0TezTMxj7jrWPP1snI4UQzeAHhMZfLi07e6p7a6KdZ8a_BBT98_92gyxCI4w1_LR2eivi82VslXFNXhac1P68qvnHmNwnLlvop73FnEgzlOWC6B66W3gIdF7lbjKhNgU2kAip4P0-1iSKgB4h0ZY1JE6Dnvnr622t0aAuc16lQweWgkMMUNd4revRDbbVFYOwiFtGq0WuRmkrVc9Bam_1KSomP9R968Px5-i7JdmAl7f0eoSRCHZc8S8Z1Zg%3D%3D">is working brilliantly</a>.</li></ul><h2 id="72bd2f86-fb74-4940-95ae-03a2da4dd9c0">3 things in markets</h2><div type="image" title="Neil Dutta" height="879" width="1758" msid="112715223" hostid="261" sizebytes="171022"></div><ol><li>The guy who kept telling us to not worry about the economy is suddenly worried about the economy. Renaissance Macro Research's Neil Dutta constantly pushed back on Wall Street's prediction that a recession was coming in 2023. Now he sees the current downward outlook for the labor market as <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/recession-forecast-risks-outlook-unemployment-rate-labor-market-economist-dutta-2024-8">one that's not easily reversible</a>.</li><li>How to get your financial weight up with a "barbell" investing strategy. Sherry Jiang is a financially independent investor thanks to her mix of low-risk ETF investments coupled with risky bets like crypto. By focusing on the extreme ends of the investing spectrum — hence the "barbell" strategy — <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/investor-with-seven-figure-stocks-etfs-portfolio-shares-barbell-strategy-2024-8">she gets the best of both worlds</a>.</li><li>Venture capital is out, generational wealth is in. Amid a turbulent few years in VC, the management offices of the world's richest families are stepping up to the plate to make risky bets on startups. Family offices have a huge advantage in this market: While VCs look for 10-year exits, family offices <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/family-offices-making-more-startup-investments-venture-capital-shakes-out-2024-8">play the long game</a>.</li></ol><h2 id="f020c521-2fce-4bcb-96cd-0ddbedfde690">3 things in tech</h2><div type="image" title="Hand drowning in a pile of HR apps like Workday, Oracle, ADP, and Slack, with another hand in a suit offering help" height="1500" width="2000" msid="112715231" hostid="261" sizebytes="85374"></div><ol><li>HR tech is a nightmare. To work in 2024 is to drown in a sea of workplace apps, many of which can make you feel like you've never used a computer before. Here's why they're <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/hr-software-tech-companies-employees-productivity-workday-oracle-adp-2024-8">such a pain for employees to use</a>.</li><li>Put it in reverse. Ford just <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/ford-changes-ev-strategy-cancels-electric-suv-2024-8">canceled its plans for electric three-row SUVs</a>, intending to replace them with hybrid models instead. That move is expected to cost the automaker $2 billion amid other growing pains in the EV market. It's further evidence a truly <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/when-will-electric-cars-cost-less-get-more-affordable-2024-8">affordable EV is still a long way off</a>.</li><li>ChatGPT, roast my Instagram in one paragraph. The hot new digital self-deprecation trend is to upload screenshots of your Instagram profile and ask an AI chatbot to roast it. Degrees of meanness vary. <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/asked-chatgpt-to-roast-my-instagram-heres-what-it-said-2024-8">Prompt it at your own risk</a>.</li></ol><h2 id="1d86c575-bfc7-496a-92ee-18bdae297353">3 things in business</h2><div type="image" title="Photo illustration of influencers at the DNC" height="900" width="1200" msid="112715225" hostid="261" sizebytes="138994"></div><ol><li>Your favorite LinkedIn influencer might be a ghostwriter. As the platform becomes more cool, some <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/how-pr-firms-are-making-linkedin-ghostwriting-a-big-business-2024-4">executives are turning to PR firms to run their LinkedIn profiles</a>. It's turning ghostwriting into a booming business.</li><li>Walmart's boss charts how to rise to the top. In an interview with the Stratechery podcast, CEO Doug McMillon shared his <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/walmart-ceo-doug-mcmillon-how-to-move-up-corporate-ladder-2024-4">top three tips for moving up the corporate ladder</a>. He'd know, having started his 40-year career at the retailer making $6.50 an hour on the loading docks.</li><li>Meet 17 PR pros helping influencers grow their careers. Business execs aren't the only ones who need PR guidance. Some of the most successful content creators across YouTube, Instagram, and TikTok are <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/top-publicists-pr-pros-for-influencers-in-creator-economy-2024-4">turning to these PR professionals</a> to promote their work.</li></ol><h2 id="24d0ecfe-bb85-4b7c-a20c-f6b4a129f942">In other news</h2><ul><li>From run clubs to chess clubs, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/gen-z-fighting-loneliness-making-friends-book-run-social-clubs-2024-8">Gen Z has figured out how to make friends</a>.</li><li>I'm a therapist in Silicon Valley. My high-achieving clients refuse to do <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/silicon-valley-therapist-tips-for-burnout-high-achieving-professionals-2024-8">the one thing that will help them most</a>.</li><li>Jeff Bezos appears to have taken delivery of the <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/jeff-bezos-new-private-jet-gulfstream-g700-co2-emissions-2024-8">newest, most-hyped private jet on the market</a>.</li><li>Vampires, billionaire husbands, and influencers: <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/reelshort-taking-on-hollywood-short-dramas-courts-creators-2024-8">How a Chinese-backed short drama app is taking on Hollywood</a>.</li><li>Jennifer Lopez and Ben Affleck reportedly didn't sign a prenup. <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/jennifer-lopez-ben-affleck-divorce-settlement-prenup-assets-2024-8">Here are the assets they may have to split 50/50 in their divorce settlement</a>.</li><li>Trump Media stock is <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/trump-media-truth-social-kamala-harris-presidency-election-odds-meme-2024-8">trading near record lows</a> as Kamala Harris reshuffles election odds.</li><li>The world's oldest person just died at 117. <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/oldest-living-person-maria-branyas-morera-dies-longevity-tips-2024-8">Here are her 5 longevity tips</a>.</li></ul><h2 id="ce39eba7-f9f3-46eb-8323-637838f6c02f">What's happening today</h2><ul><li>Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium begins.</li><li>Google's new smartphones, the Pixel 9 and Pixel 9 Pro XL, hit the market.</li><li>Democratic National Convention concludes with an acceptance speech from Kamala Harris.</li></ul>The Insider Today team: Dan DeFrancesco, deputy editor and anchor, in New York. Jordan Parker Erb, editor, in New York. Hallam Bullock, senior editor, in London. Milan Sehmbi, fellow, in London. Amanda Yen, fellow, in New York.

All eyes are on Jackson Hole for clues about the size of September's rate cut

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Indexes rallied Thursday as investors continue to digest Wednesday's jumbo rate cut from the Fed.</li><li>The Fed cut rates by 50 basis points in its first rate cut in over four years.</li></ul>US stocks soared on Thursday in a late reaction to the Federal Reserve's <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/fed-cuts-interest-rates-how-much-september-fomc-powell-inflation-2024-9?_gl=1*1eo5ti1*_ga*MTY3OTgyNjg0MS4xNzIxMDE2MDM2*_ga_E21CV80ZCZ*MTcyNjc0OTAzMi4xNTguMS4xNzI2NzUwMTU5LjUzLjAuMA..">jumbo interest rate cut</a>. On Wednesday, the Fed issued its first interest rate cut since 2020, cutting its benchmark rate by 50 basis points. Directly after the announcement, major indexes <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/interest-rates-today-fed-meeting-cut-stock-market-powell-economy-2024-9">surged </a>before paring those gains during Chair Jerome Powell's press conference.Now, it seems investors are reacting positively to the news, with major indexes up across the board. The Dow climbed 500 points shortly after the opening bell, while the Nasdaq jumped 2.4% and the S&amp;P 500 gained 1.5% to hit fresh record highs. Official' projections show the central bank will cut another 50 basis points this year and 100 basis points in 2025, though some see steeper cuts ahead still. Bank of America analysts said after the meeting that they see 75 basis points of cuts in the fourth quarter and 125 basis points next year. "The greater urgency suggested by today's 50bp cut and the acceleration in the pace of cuts that most participants projected for 2025 makes a longer series of consecutive cuts the most likely path, in our view," Goldman Sachs analysts said in a Wednesday note.In his press conference, Powell noted that the Fed sees the economy as being in a good place and unemployment is still relatively low despite a slow but steady rise in 2024. He said the central bank sees the jobless rate climbing to 4.4% by the end of the year, from last month's 4.2%&gt; Weekly jobless claims data on Thursday reinforced the Fed's message of a strong labor market. Claims from last week ticked down 12,000 to 219,000, according to Labor Department data released Thursday.That fall marks the biggest change in jobless claims in over a month."The labor market is actually in solid condition. And our intention with our policy move today is to keep it there," Powell said in his remarks following the FOMC meeting. Here's where US indexes stood shortly after the 9:30 a.m. opening bell on Thursday:<ul><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/s&amp;p_500?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">S&amp;P 500</a>: 5,705.47, up 1.55% </li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/dow_jones?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Dow Jones Industrial Average</a>: 41,965.94, up 1.12% (+462.84 points)</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/nasdaq_composite?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Nasdaq composite</a>: 17,994.09, up 2.4% </li></ul>Here's what else is going on today:<ul><li>A <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/feds-rate-cut-dissent-governor-federal-reserve-jerome-powell-split-2024-9">lone dissenting vote</a> on the Fed's rate cut marks the first split by a central bank governor in two decades.</li><li>The SEC wants to make trading stocks <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/sec-stock-pricing-half-penny-cent-vote-regulation-transaction-costs-2024-9?_gl=1*imuuhl*_ga*MTY3OTgyNjg0MS4xNzIxMDE2MDM2*_ga_E21CV80ZCZ*MTcyNjc0OTAzMi4xNTguMS4xNzI2NzUwNDYzLjQxLjAuMA..">cheaper for the average investor</a>.</li><li>Gen Z's love of discount stores could send these three retail stocks <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/gen-z-discount-stores-tjmaxx-burlington-stocks-bank-of-america-2024-9">soaring as much as 18%</a>, Bank of America says.</li></ul>In commodities, bonds, and crypto:<ul><li>Oil futures rose. <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price?type=wti">WTI crude</a> increased 1% to $71.65 a barrel. <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Brent crude</a>, the international benchmark, was up 1% to $74.42 a barrel.</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/gold-price?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Gold</a> was up almost 1% to $2,566 per ounce.</li><li>The 10-year Treasury yield rose six basis points to 3.747%.</li><li><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/currencies/btc-usd">Bitcoin</a> rose 0.31% to $57,745.72</li></ul>

Stock market today: Dow surges 462 points as stocks rally after jumbo Fed rate cut

Domestic <keyword id="19910265" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="gold-prices" source="keywords">gold prices</keyword> have risen by 10% on a year-to-date basis on the back of the strength in global gold prices, which have surged by 18% year-to-date, driven by robust <keyword id="19894998" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="central-bank" source="keywords">central bank</keyword> purchases, heightened geopolitical risks, and growing expectations of a monetary policy pivot from the <keyword id="19901377" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="us-federal-reserve" source="keywords">US Federal Reserve</keyword>, according to the <keyword id="20195223" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="World-Gold-Council" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="World Gold Council" meta.hostid="153" meta.entityid="World Gold Council">World Gold Council</keyword>. The reduction in <keyword id="20069572" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="import-duty" source="keywords">import duty</keyword> has ignited a resurgence in gold demand across <keyword id="19895063" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="India" source="keywords">India</keyword>. Reports from the recently concluded India International Jewellery Show indicate a substantial increase in order bookings from retailers, particularly in preparation for the upcoming festive and wedding season. Manufacturers have noted that in some cases, orders have reached levels not seen in several years, underscoring the strong buying interest among <keyword id="21595593" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="jewellery-retailers" source="keywords">jewellery retailers</keyword> and consumers alike. The trend of bar and coin buying has also remained robust, with both consumers and jewellers capitalizing on the more attractive prices to stock up for future manufacturing needs. Historical analysis suggests that Indian consumer demand, encompassing jewellery and bar and coin demand, could see an additional 50 tonnes or more in the second half of 2024. This potential increase is fueled by a combination of an initial boost in consumer appetite due to the more attractive prices and a longer-term alignment of local prices with international rates. In a notable shift, domestic gold prices, which had been trading at a discount to international prices for five consecutive months, have now started trading at a premium following the <keyword id="19908389" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Union-Budget" source="keywords">Union Budget</keyword> announcement. The discount had widened significantly in July, reaching a peak of around $80 per ounce in the third week of the month, driven by subdued demand and an increased supply of gold through various preferential trade agreements and unofficial channels. However, wholesalers who had inventory purchased under the old customs duty regime began selling gold at a premium to the landed cost to mitigate their losses, further supported by increased consumer demand. While the premiums have moderated recently, from $28 per ounce to around USD 5 per ounce, this shift highlights the changing market sentiment and the impact of rising international gold prices and potential inventory valuation adjustments. The changes introduced in the Union Budget, including a reduction in the long-term investment holding period and a lower tax rate, have made gold ETFs a more attractive investment option. Data from the Association of Mutual Funds in India (AMFI) reveals that net inflows into gold ETFs in July amounted to Rs 13.4 billion (approximately USD 160 million), marking the highest monthly inflows since February 2020 and an 84% increase compared to June 2024. Despite these inflows, the total assets under management (AUM) for Indian gold ETFs grew marginally by 0.3% from the previous month, reaching Rs 345 billion ($4.1 billion). This modest increase can be attributed to the 8 % fall in domestic gold prices following the import duty reduction. Year-to-date, net inflows into Indian gold ETFs have totalled Rs 45 billion ($543 million), with total AUMs rising by 48 % from a year ago. The <keyword id="19899810" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Reserve-Bank-of-India" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="Reserve Bank of India" meta.hostid="153" meta.entityid="Reserve Bank of India">Reserve Bank of India</keyword> (RBI) has continued its gold purchasing trend, although at a slower pace following a significant increase in June, when purchases reached 9.3 tonnes--the highest monthly total in nearly two years. Year-to-date, the RBI's gold acquisitions have totaled 44.3 tonnes, surpassing the total purchases of the past two years combined. The RBI's gold reserves have now reached a record 849 tonnes, representing 8.8% of total foreign reserves, compared to 7.5 % a year ago. In July, gold imports remained steady at $3.1 billion, maintaining the stable trend observed over the previous three months. Between April and July, imports averaged $3.2 billion, with volumes ranging between 43 and 47 tonnes during this period. The gold import bill for July 2024 was 11 % lower than the previous year, with an estimated 26% decrease in volume terms, around 47 tonnes. Despite a surge in international gold prices, domestic gold prices in India have experienced a notable decline, primarily due to the 9 % reduction in import duty announced in the Union Budget 2024-25. This policy change has led to a 6% decrease in the landed cost of gold, marking a shift in the domestic gold market dynamics.

You Searched For "future retail ratings" and got 12 results

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All eyes are on Jackson Hole for clues about the size of September's rate cut

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Stock market today: Dow surges 462 points as stocks rally after jumbo Fed rate cut

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Domestic gold prices surge 10% amid global price rally, central bank buying: World Gold Council

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