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Indian companies across multiple sectors have reported disappointing results in the second quarter of fiscal year 2025, notes a new JM Financials report. Consequently, their poor performance has triggered stock price corrections for affected companies. The brunt of this weaker than expected earnings was largely borne by consumer centric sectors like FMCG (fast moving consumer goods), retail, and auto, which slacked largely due to dampened urban demand. For instance, India's largest automaker, Maruti Suzuki, reported a 5% YoY decline in its total domestic passenger vehicle wholesales, largely on the back of pent-up inventory. Similarly, Honda reported a staggering 23% YoY dip in its total sales during October 2024. A recent report by Bernstein noted that around 48% of the companies listed on the NSE100 index missed their earnings estimate for Q2FY25, the highest since March 2020. Most companies have mentioned deteriorated domestic demand, urban slowing, macroeconomic risk, and margin pressures as the main reasons behind the dip. "The quarter's earnings have made investors nervous," noted the JM Financials report. The challenging environment stems from multiple factors: softening consumer demand, rising input costs, and companies' limited ability to increase prices. Moreover, this is not limited to just one quarter. Companies have been reporting weak, single-digit earnings growth for the last six consecutive quarters. Data from India Data Hub also suggests that corporate profits of listed companies plunged by as much as 3.4% during the quarter ended September 30, 2024. This is in stark contrast to the year-ago period, where they had shot up by over 40% The oil and gas sector had a difficult quarter, with refiners hit by weak margins and city gas distributors struggling with higher input costs. Financial institutions showed mixed results. While government-owned banks reported strong numbers, microfinance institutions and some private lenders faced massive difficulties with their unsecured loans. Most notable amongst this was the case of IndusInd Bank, which saw its net profits dip by 40% amidst burgeoning provisions, which climbed 87% to Rs 1,820 crore in Q2, as against Rs 974 crore reported in the year-ago period. <h2>Markets head southwards</h2>The selling trend by FPIs has dragged down the major Indian indices, the Nifty 50 and Sensex, both of which have dropped by around 8% since the beginning of this selling spree in October. According to National Securities Depository Ltd. (NSDL) data, FPIs offloaded equities worth a significant Rs 19,994 crore in just the first five trading sessions of November last week. The impact is clearly visible on Indian stock markets. Data suggests that while every sector in October closed the month in red, auto, oil and gas, and consumer durables were the most badly hit, each declining by as much as 10% during the month. Another indicator underlining the inherent weakness of the market was that the month saw only 242 stocks hit their 52-week high, significantly below the usual monthly average of 310.

India Inc. stares at an earnings dearth in Q2, FMCG, auto, and consumer durables falter

<ul><li>FMCG giant HUL’s shares reported a decline of over 6% on Thursday.</li><li>This comes a day after the company reported a 2.33% decline in consolidated net profit in Q2.</li><li>The stock tanked 6.59% to ₹2,483.95 on the NSE.</li></ul>Shares of FMCG major <keyword id="20002610" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Hindustan-Unilever" source="keywords">Hindustan Unilever</keyword> Ltd (HUL) on Thursday tumbled over 6% after the firm reported a 2.33% decline in consolidated net profit for the second quarter ended in September. The stock tanked 6.59% to ₹2,483.95 on the NSE. The stock emerged as the biggest laggard among the Sensex and Nifty firms during the morning trade. Hindustan Unilever Ltd on Wednesday reported a 2.33% decline in consolidated net profit at ₹2,595 crore for the second quarter ended in September 2024, impacted by moderation in demand from the urban market. The company had logged a net profit of ₹2,657 crore in the July-September quarter a year ago, HUL said in a regulatory filing. However, revenue from product sales was up 2.36% at ₹15,703 crore in the September quarter, from ₹15,340 crore in the year-ago period, HUL which owns power brands such as Surf, Rin, Lux, Pond's, Lifebuoy, Lakme, Brooke Bond, Lipton and Horlicks said. "In the September quarter, <keyword id="21419477" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="FMCG-demand" source="keywords">FMCG demand</keyword> witnessed moderating growth in urban markets, while rural continued to recover gradually. In this context, we delivered a competitive and profitable performance," HUL CEO and Managing Director Rohit Jawa said. HUL reported an underlying sales growth of 2% and underlying volume growth of 3%. Total expenses were at ₹12,581 crore in the September quarter, up 3.03% year-on-year. HUL's total income, which includes other income, was up 2.14% to ₹16,145 crore in the September quarter of FY25. Addressing an earnings call, HUL CFO Ritesh Tiwari said, "Two thirds of our business we do in urban areas, and one-third we do in rural areas … we are seeing growth in the urban market moderating. We are seeing rural growth recovery is gradual … it impacts all the categories that we have." On the outlook, he said, "In the near term, we expect demand trends to be stable with no further acceleration in pace of growth." In this context, Tiwari said, "Our focus remains on driving competitive volume-led growth, while continuing investments behind our brands and strategy priorities … If commodity prices remain where they are, we expect a low single digit price growth in the near-term." With inputs from PTI. SEE ALSO: <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/stock-market/webstories/afcons-infrastructure-ipo-gmp-risk-factors-and-all-you-need-to-know/slidelist/114490954.cms">Afcons Infrastructure IPO – GMP, risk factors and all you need to know</a> <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/tech/news/upi-refund-scam-to-digital-arrest-scam-here-are-most-common-online-scams-in-india/articleshow/114428011.cms">UPI refund to digital arrest scam, here are some online scams you need to be aware of</a> <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/stock-market/news/waaree-energies-ipo-allotment-how-to-check-allotment-ipo-gmp-listing-date-and-more/articleshow/114508632.cms">Waaree Energies IPO allotment – How to check allotment, IPO GMP, listing date and more</a>

Hindustan Unilever shares tumble over 6% post Q2 results

Demand trajectory across urban and rural markets in India has shown a "slight improvement" sequentially in the March quarter, although it falls short of a full recover, FMCG major Dabur said. Despite near-term consumption pressure, some "green shoots" are emerging such as moderating inflation, improving consumer confidence and increase in government spending. "While urban markets have returned to positive volume growth, rural markets still remain muted," said Dabur in its latest quarter updates. The company expects a "mid-single digit revenue growth" for the January-March quarter in such a scenario. Its F&amp;B business continues to trend at robust levels and will report strong double-digit growth, while healthcare portfolio is expected to be in a positive growth trajectory, it added. Home &amp; Personal Care (HPC) will report low single-digit revenue growth on account of a slowdown in the personal care categories. "Our brands continued to record gain in market shares in most of the segments," it said. March quarter also marks the consolidation of Badshah Masala, a business which it acquired. It is in the process of being integrated and is tracking as per expectations. Over international sales, Dabur said it expects "high single-digit growth" in constant currency. "However, due to currency headwinds in Egypt and Turkey, the reported growth in INR will be impacted. While there are short-term pressures, we are restructuring our distribution network in key markets and increasing investments behind our brands which will benefit us in the long term," it said. "Overall, Dabur's consolidated revenue is expected to report mid-single digit growth during the quarter," it said. During the quarter inflation continued to cool off for most of our commodities. "India gross margins are expected to show an improvement, but Consolidated gross margin will be impacted mainly due to currency headwinds in International Business. We have also strategically increased our spending behind our brands, leading to short-term pressure on the operating margin, which is expected to be lower by around 200-250 bps as compared to Q4 FY22," it said. While the environment has been challenging, the fundamentals of the business continue to be resilient. "We will continue to invest strongly behind Power Brands, Innovation, Distribution expansion and a robust back end which will enable us to increase our market shares and achieve profitable and sustainable growth," it said. This quarter update will be followed by detailed financial results and earnings presentation once the Board of Directors of the Company approves the consolidated and standalone financial results. SEE ALSO: <a target="_blank" class="c-link c-message_attachment__title_link" href="https://www.businessinsider.in/finance/news/monetary-policy-impact-rbis-pause-to-support-real-estate-demand-particularly-affordable-segment/articleshow/99290486.cms">Monetary Policy Impact: RBI’s pause to support real estate demand - particularly affordable segment</a> <a target="_blank" class="c-link c-message_attachment__title_link" href="https://www.businessinsider.in/finance/news/rbi-revises-indias-fy24-growth-outlook-expects-softer-inflation-on-the-back-of-lower-commodity-prices/articleshow/99290005.cms">RBI revises India’s FY24 growth outlook, expects softer inflation on the back of lower commodity prices</a>

Demand trajectory slightly improves sequentially in March qtr, green shoots emerge, says Dabur

<ul><li>Inflation has been eating into the purchasing power of lower and middle income groups with many essentials’ sales falling.</li><li>Majority of the upper and upper middle class respondents saw their household incomes go up more than inflation.</li><li>There is a dichotomy seen in online festive sales too as premium products are bought with discounts and purchase options say experts. </li></ul>There are two Indias within the great sub-continent. One where the day-breaking drink of tea has become dearer for many this year and the other half is doubling down on wine purchases. Neither of them are affected by the base effect of last year. <keyword id="2653343" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="tea-sales" source="Orion">Tea sales</keyword> were down last year too, and <keyword id="806378" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="wine-sales" source="Orion">wine sales</keyword> were up — darkening the ‘K’ line on economic recovery charts. Madan Sabnavis, the chief economist of Bank of Baroda calls it a schizophrenic pattern of consumption. “Sales are doing better in categories where price does not matter,” he tells Business Insider India. <div type="image" title="grocery demand" msid="104810160" hostid="261" caption="&amp;lt;p&amp;gt;Source: Pixabay &amp;lt;/p&amp;gt;"></div> It’s discretion not price The categories of goods where price matters are seeing low growth in output – a reflection of demand. Some of the casualties are detergent powders, groundnut oils, shampoos and hair dyes. Their output fell between April to August 2023, compared to the year before, as per BoB economics research. Inflation has a more indirect effect on these purchases. For example, tea and shampoo saw moderate inflation but their demand fell. Inflation was high in coffee, toothpaste and soaps but their demand grew. “The generalized inflation factor has been at work where real income has come down thus leading to lower purchasing power,” said BoB. In a survey conducted by UBS, about 46% of respondents said that they’re buying less personal care and packaged food compared to last year. For purchase of home care products, the respondents were largely neutral versus last year, it added. India’s largest FMCG player Hindustan Unilever with a large presence across rural and urban India has seen a direct impact of it in the quarter that ended in September 2023. Its overall urban volumes grew 3% and rural volumes fell 1%. “Rural recovery is likely to remain gradual,” the company said in its investor presentation indicating that the situation might not see any dramatic recovery in the coming months. Rural India saw reverse migration during the pandemic, but not all of them have gone back, opines Sabnavis. A chunk of downtrading is also being seen in urban areas amongst income groups that are facing the heat of inflation, experts add. At the other end This is, however, only one half of the story. At the other end, many Indians are not blinking while making discretionary purchases. A majority of the upper and middle class respondents – 65% – surveyed by UBS, saw their household incomes go up more than inflation. “The top 20% of the population account for the bulk of discretionary consumption. The survey results support our view that affluent consumers‘ income levels are holding up, as reflected in corporate wage growth that continues at double digits,” said UBS. Lalit Jhawar, co-founder and CEO, LandCraft Retail says that high-end gourmet products in urban areas have been steadily increasing over the last few years. He owns a luxury gourmet retails store- Food Square in Mumbai, which sells cheeses, truffles, caviar, artisanal breads and all the other international food items. “Affluence in urban areas has grown, resulting in a larger number of consumers with higher discretionary income,” Jhawar tells Business Insider India. Online sales: A story of dichotomy Another sign of higher spending is seen in the e-commerce festival sales. The first week of the many festival discount sales saw ₹47,000 crore worth of goods being sold, which is 19% higher than last year, says Redseer Consulting. Online sales, which now sees a good measure of metro and demand from Tier 2 and Tier 3 cities, is showing a dichotomy as well, say experts. “Two Indias have come into play where one India is saving up and waiting for prices to come down to clinch a good deal on premium products. On the other hand, there are low-value product sales i.e value-for-money purchases that are being bought more frequently,” said Abhishek Tandon, engagement manager at Redseer Strategy Consultants. The sale season, which is manna for bargain hunters, is also enthused by the number of Buy Now Pay Later and EMI options. “When it comes to big ticket purchases, premiumization is bolstered by financing options and discounts that make it affordable,” adds Tandon. In the pre-festive period between April and August,however, most consumer durable sales were in a negative zone, due to the high-base effect of last year, says Bank of Baroda’s report. Refrigerators, mobiles, readymade garments all showed a negative output – also indicating that discounts play a large role in discretionary purchases. Indian consumers have always been complicated and price has always played a big role in purchase decisions, choice of brands and more. But it’s no longer a linear story. One end of the market, driven by affluence, is veering towards premium purchases. The other end is looking for ways to survive with less in hand as inflation is eating into their purchasing power. SEE ALSO <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/stock-market/news/mamaearth-this-fmcg-scion-is-all-set-to-gain-a-windfall-from-honasa-ipo/articleshow/104721052.cms">This FMCG scion is all set to gain a windfall from Honasa Consumer IPO</a> <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/careers/news/genzs-millennials-wants-to-be-back-to-offices-even-as-costs-pinch/articleshow/104700780.cms">GenZs, millennials want to be back to offices even as costs pinch</a>

Wine vs Tea: India’s consumption trends show a sharp divergence

As Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman unveiled the Union <keyword id="19955368" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="budget-2024" source="keywords">Budget 2024</keyword>, all eyes were on the <keyword id="20024321" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="housing-sector" source="keywords">housing sector</keyword>, which has been a focal point for both developers and <keyword id="19907145" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="homebuyers" source="keywords">homebuyers</keyword>. Expectations were high for increased deduction limits on home loan interest repayments, higher principal repayment deductions, and more robust incentives for first-time homebuyers. Last year's budget focused on increasing <keyword id="20254620" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="affordable-housing" source="keywords">affordable housing</keyword> through the Pradhan Mantri Awas Yojana (<keyword id="19945794" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="PMAY" source="keywords">PMAY</keyword>), with a significant allocation to achieve the goal of "Housing for All." The <keyword id="20152263" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="real-estate-sector" source="keywords">real estate sector</keyword> had previously seen incentives for developers building affordable housing, such as tax holidays under Section 80IBA and increased allocation through the SWAMIH fund to improve liquidity for stressed projects. <h2>Major announcements in Budget 2024</h2>As per FM Sitharaman's 2024 Budget announcements, PMAY is set to add an additional 3 crore affordable housing — houses priced under Rs 40 lakh — in rural and urban sections of India. This will be accomplished with Rs 10 lakh crores, which includes assistance of Rs 2.2 lakh crores over the next five years. A provision of <keyword id="21240797" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="interest-subsidy" source="keywords">interest subsidy</keyword> to facilitate loans at affordable rates is also envisaged, the FM noted in her speech. “This is certainly pertinent – the affordable homes category has been seeing a decline in overall sales since the pandemic, to approximately 19% in H1 2024 from over 38% in the period before the pandemic in 2019,” notes Anuj Puri, Chairman of ANAROCK Group. “Consequently, this segment’s percentage share of the total housing supply in the top 7 cities also fell to 18% in H1 2024 from nearly 40% in 2019. Any boost to this vital segment is therefore welcome.” As per December 2023 reports, 65% of houses under PMAY-Urban had been completed and delivered to beneficiaries since the scheme was introduced in 2015. This amounts to over 78 lakh pucca houses out of the 1.18 crore sanctioned. The new addition to PMAY will thus attempt to more than triple the quadruple the number. <h2>Tax reliefs and transparent rental policies</h2>This year, the sector expected further <keyword id="20345361" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="tax-relief" source="keywords">tax relief</keyword> measures for homebuyers and developers. Key demands are aplenty, including increasing the deduction limit for home loan interest repayment from the current Rs 2 lakhs to Rs 3-4 lakhs for self-occupied properties, reintroducing tax exemptions for first-time homebuyers, standardising the definition of "Affordable Housing", and reducing GST on construction materials like cement and steel. However, there has been only disappointments on this front based on the announcements so far. However, in terms of the tax changes, the Budget has proposed a massive reduction in rental matters for the individual. While the current tax deducted at source (TDS) for Payment of rent by individuals or HUF under Section 194-IB stands at 5%, the new budget is set to bring this down to 2%, effective from October 1, 2024. <div type="Article" hostid="261" msid="111946291" title="Union Budget 2024-25 key highlights: Angel tax to be scraped" mstype="2" mssubtype="0"></div>Further, the government has promised to enable and implement policies and regulations for efficient and transparent <keyword id="20071228" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="rental-housing" source="keywords">rental housing</keyword> markets with enhanced availability. <h2>Additional initiatives</h2>Further, dormitory-style accommodations have also been announced for industrial workers in public-private partnership mode with Viability Gap Funding (VGF) support and commitment from anchor industries. VGF is a scheme that helps support important infrastructure projects that may not be financially viable, through grants that total up to 20% of the total project cost. The FM also announced that policies and regulations for efficient and transparent rental housing markets with enhanced availability will be put in place, to ease the rental and home-owning process. <div type="Article" hostid="261" msid="111953230" title="Union Budget 2024-25: Mobile Phones to get cheaper, as FM Nirmala Sitharaman reduces basic customs duty to 15%" mstype="2" mssubtype="0"></div>Markets are optimistic in the aftermath of these announcements, with many housing finance companies recording healthy gains since the speech. Puri notes that the renewed focus on rural and urban job creation, if effective, may provide some boost to affordable housing in even tier 2 and 3 cities. “The Finance Minister's allocation of ₹10 lakh crore to help 1 crore poor middle-class families buy houses will boost the demand for residential properties,” remarks Divyam Mour, Research Analyst at Samco Securities. ”This funding, along with interest subsidies, will greatly benefit real estate developers like DLF, Macrotech Developers, NBCC, and Sunteck Realty, as well as housing finance companies focused on the lower and middle classes, such as Aadhar Housing Finance, Aptus Value Housing Finance, and Aavas Financiers.”

Budget 2024: More affordable housing, lowered rent TDS — here’s what will change for the housing sector this year

Finance Minister <keyword id="19916618" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Nirmala-Sitharaman" source="keywords">Nirmala Sitharaman</keyword> on Tuesday announced <keyword id="20404375" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="income-tax-relief" source="keywords">income tax relief</keyword> for the <keyword id="20071167" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="middle-class" source="keywords">middle class</keyword>, a Rs 2 lakh crore outlay for <keyword id="22517841" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="job-creation-schemes" source="keywords">job creation schemes</keyword> over the next five years and a spending splurge for states run by her party's new coalition partners as she unveiled <keyword id="20509939" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Modi-3-0" source="keywords">Modi 3.0</keyword> government's first budget after the general elections. With rural distress and unemployment being blamed for BJP losing its majority, Sitharaman in her seventh straight budget provided Rs 2.66 lakh crore for <keyword id="20027688" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="rural-development" source="keywords">rural development</keyword> and maintained spending on long-term infrastructure projects at Rs 11.11 lakh crore to boost <keyword id="19900794" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="economic-growth" source="keywords">economic growth</keyword>. She abolished 'angel tax' for all classes of investors in startups, cut customs duty on mobile phones and gold and simplified capital gains tax. She, however, raised the securities transaction tax (STT) on futures and options of securities, which led to tanking of stock markets. "India's economic growth continues to be the shining exception (in a world that is gripped by policy uncertainties) and will remain so in the years ahead," she said. "In this budget, we particularly focus on <keyword id="19898684" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="employment" source="keywords">employment</keyword>, <keyword id="20374219" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="skilling" source="keywords">skilling</keyword>, MSMEs, and the middle class." Besides Rs 2 lakh crore provided over a five year period for schemes and initiatives to facilitate employment, skilling and other opportunities for 4.1 crore youth, "I have made a provision of Rs 1.48 lakh crore for education, employment and skilling," she said. For Bihar, where assembly elections are due next year, the finance minister announced spending of Rs 60,000 crore on infrastructure projects like expressways, power plant, heritage corridors and new airports. The support to Bihar, whose ruling party and BJP's partner JD-U has been demanding an economic package and special category status for the state, is in the form of capital projects but not subsidy or cash dole. Similarly, for Andhra Pradesh, whose ruling TDP recently joined BJP-led NDA, she allocated Rs 15,000 crore in financial aid through multilateral agencies. A similar request for support to Bihar will be expedited, she said. For the middle class, she raised standard deduction -- a flat deduction from total salary earned by an employee in a year before calculating applicable income tax rate -- by 50 per cent to Rs 75,000 and tweaked tax slabs for taxpayers opting for the new income tax regime. This will lead to taxpayers under the new tax regime -- which offers lower rates of taxes but permits limited deductions and exemptions -- saving up to Rs 17,500 in tax annually, she said. To spur employment, the Budget provided for incentives for companies, including paying for one-month salary for first-time employees, incentive at specified sale to both employee and empower with respect to their retirement fund contribution in the first four years of employment and reimbursing employers up to Rs 3,000 per month for 2 years towards EPFO contribution of each additional employee. Also, a programme to improve skills as well internship for students and subsidised loans for higher education will be provided, she said. India's official unemployment rate in urban areas is pegged at 6.7 per cent but private agencies put it at much higher levels. Buoyed by robust tax collections and a higher-than-expected dividend receipt from the Reserve Bank, Sitharaman said the government's fiscal deficit -- the difference between the total revenue earned and total expenditure -- will be trimmed to 4.9 per cent of the GDP in 2024-25, below the 5.1 per cent figure estimated in the interim budget she presented in February. She reduced gross market borrowing marginally to Rs 14.01 lakh crore. The Budget for 2024-25 fiscal (April 2024 to March 2025) allocated Rs 1.52 lakh crore for agriculture and allied sectors, aid for building 3 crore affordable housing units in urban and rural areas, provided credit support to small and medium businesses, raised small loans to Rs 20 lakh for small business, proposed setting up 12 industrial parks, and provided for setting up a Rs 1,000 crore venture capital fund for space sector.

Modi 3.0 1st Budget: Tax relief for middle class, Rs 2 lakh cr job scheme

<ul><li>Volume contraction for the FMCG sector was more pronounced in rural areas, says a <keyword id="87153" type="General" weightage="80" keywordseo="bnp-paribas" source="Orion">BNP Paribas</keyword> report. </li><li>While the research firm expects margin improvement in FY24, its earnings estimates are below consensus on account of INR depreciation, increase in ad spends and selective price cuts. </li><li>We think consensus earnings estimates for FY24/25 are too optimistic, the report says. </li><li>The valuation multiples of Indian FMCG companies have expanded since June 2022, BNP Paribas says. </li></ul>Consumer goods majors have been hit hard by inflation over the last few quarters, with volume growth taking a backseat. Clearly, growth has been driven by multiple price hikes that were taken by the players – and not volume growth. The road ahead looks better as commodity prices are cooling and price cuts could even spur consumption. In spite of the fact that affluent India’s consumption is holding up well, volumes from mass-market and categories that benefitted from Covid like healthcare and hygiene segments <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/finance/article/inflation-burns-a-hole-in-the-pockets-of-indias-lower-income-households-from-fmcg-goods-flip-flops-to-crackers-consumption-takes-a-backseat/articleshow/95536971.cms">were affected by inflation</a>. “Revenue growth was driven by price hikes, with volumes remaining subdued across categories. The volume contraction was more pronounced in rural areas. Companies expect rural demand to recover in the second half of FY23, on the back of government interventions, a good monsoon and higher crop realisations,” says BNP Paribas. Ad spends and price cuts Going forward, BNP shares the optimism of the companies that the second half of the current financial year will bode well for revenues and margins too as commodity prices are moderating. “While we expect margin improvement in FY24, our earnings estimates are below consensus as we anticipate INR depreciation, an increase in advertisement spends and selective price cuts to drive volumes that are under pressure,” said the research firm. Lower ad spends in addition to a cut in corporate tax rates have been aiding the sector’s earnings growth for the last five fiscal years in spite of muted growth in revenues and gross profits. But now ad spends might resume to bring back consumers who have been downtrading to cheaper unbranded products for the last six months, leaving little scope for a strong margin recovery. Lower estimates, pricier stocks BNP Paribas raised its sales estimates for most companies during the earnings season but lowered the aggregate EBITDA margin for the sector by 30 bps to 20.9-22.1% for FY23 and FY24 – thereby reducing EBITDA as well as earning per share by 1-2% for both the years. “While the outlook for FY24 is positive, driven by moderation in raw material costs and signs of a <keyword id="9592296" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="rural-recovery" source="Orion">rural recovery</keyword>, we think consensus earnings estimates for FY24/25 are too optimistic. With no triggers for a sharp multiple de-rating, we believe some stocks can see time correction over the next year. Our preferred sector picks remain ITC, Britannia, Emami and Jubilant Foodworks,” said the report. Most FMCG stocks have been on a bull run in the last five months, and that has made them expensive relative to the tough conditions that await for its volume growth. “Since June 2022, the valuation multiples of Indian FMCG companies have expanded as concerns about unabated inflation eased. This has led to several stocks moving above their five-year mean next twelve months, price to earnings ratio,” the report said. The downside risks that the research firm sees include an increase in competitive intensity, leading to companies cutting prices and sales growing at a lower-than-expected rate; and lower-than-expected margin recovery. Rural recovery to be affected by muted Kharif season Many economists and rating agencies are also questioning the pace of economic growth of the country – marred by <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/finance/news/no-end-to-downgrades-in-gdp-estimates-as-economists-remain-divided-on-severity-of-slowdown/articleshow/95847763.cms">constant downgrades</a>. Apart from global spillovers, experts believe that a lot is riding on the rural recovery – that will play a big role in the volume and revenue growth of FMCG majors. While there have been green shoots of recovery seen in <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/business/auto/news/mixed-demand-trends-for-autos-in-november-as-festive-boost-wears-off-but-signs-of-rural-recovery-visible/articleshow/95848505.cms">spurts like auto sales</a>, rural consumption has remained muted even after lockdowns ended. A major driver for rural recovery is a good Kharif crop, which, however, has been affected by erratic monsoons this year. “Untimely heavy rainfall in the states across North-west and Central India between end-September 2022 and mid-October 2022 is likely to have added to the moisture levels of the standing crop, which poses some downside risks to the kharif output relative to the first Advance Estimates,” said an ICRA report. SEE ALSO <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/business/news/vikram-kirloskar-the-mit-engineer-who-loved-to-build-factories/articleshow/95875911.cms">Vikram Kirloskar: The MIT engineer who loved to build factories</a> <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/business/corporates/article/tatas-mega-aviation-merger-is-poised-for-flight-but-the-skies-are-not-clear-yet/articleshow/95526116.cms">Tata's mega aviation merger is poised for flight, but the skies are not clear yet</a>

India FMCG sector profits may be weighed by ad spend hikes, price cuts: BNP Paribas

India's economic engine is roaring, and the job market reflects that optimism. The latest <keyword id="20613906" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Economic-Survey" source="keywords">Economic Survey</keyword> 2023-2024 paints a picture of a growing economy brimming with opportunities, but also cautions of potential roadblocks on the road to success. <h2>Cause for celebration</h2>The good news is plentiful, if the recent Economic Survey tabled by <keyword id="20426375" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Union-Finance-Minister-Nirmala-Sitharaman" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="Union Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="Union Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman">Union Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman</keyword> is to be believed. The <keyword id="20054242" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="unemployment-rate" source="keywords">unemployment rate</keyword> has dipped to an impressive 3.2% in 2022-23, signifying a more vibrant job market. Increased participation of young people and women in the workforce presents a golden opportunity to leverage India's demographic dividend and achieve greater gender equality. Additionally, a surge in net payroll additions under the Employees' Provident Fund Organisation (EPFO) indicates a healthy rise in formal jobs, offering much-needed security for workers. The government's "Skill India" initiative is gaining traction, with a significant rise in the number of people undergoing skill development programs, the Economic Survey highlighted. This is crucial, as India's burgeoning tech scene, with its skyrocketing number of startups, is creating a wealth of new opportunities that demand a skilled workforce. <div type="Article" hostid="261" msid="111920956" title="FM Nirmala Sitharaman tables Economic Survey 2023-24 in Lok Sabha" mstype="2" mssubtype="0"></div> <h2>Challenges on the horizon </h2>However, amidst the optimism, there are challenges to navigate. While <keyword id="107950" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="artificial-intelligence" source="Orion">Artificial Intelligence</keyword> (AI) promises to revolutionise industries, it also poses a threat to some existing jobs. The Economic Survey emphasises the need to use technology for collective benefit, advocating against over-reliance on automation. Another significant hurdle is the widening <keyword id="21466653" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="skills-gap" source="keywords">skills gap</keyword>. The rapid transformation of the <keyword id="20001119" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="services-sector" source="keywords">services sector</keyword>, marked by the rise of domestic service delivery powered by technology (think online food delivery and home automation) and the diversification of India's services exports beyond traditional sectors like IT, demands a workforce equipped with specialised skills. Areas like Blockchain, Machine Learning, <keyword id="19906883" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="cybersecurity" source="keywords">Cybersecurity</keyword>, <keyword id="19960489" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="cloud-computing" source="keywords">Cloud Computing</keyword>, and Web and Mobile Development are becoming increasingly important. Outdated regulations, particularly those related to land use and restrictions on women's working hours, are further hindering job creation and female labour force participation. Deregulation in these areas is crucial to unlock India's full growth potential, according to the Economic Survey. The report also highlights the need for industry to take the lead in fostering innovation and skill development. Collaboration with academia and revamped vocational education programs are key to bridge the current skill gap. <div type="Article" hostid="261" msid="111922453" title="AI casts huge pall of uncertainty over impact on workers across skill levels: Economic Survey" mstype="2" mssubtype="0"></div> <h2>Opportunities beyond tech</h2>The Economic Survey identifies promising sectors with the potential to create a significant number of jobs: <ul><li>Agro-processing: This sector can be a major job generator, especially in rural areas.</li><li>Care Economy: The growing demand for elder care and childcare services presents an opportunity for skilled professionals.</li><li>Tourism: While AI might moderate India's services export growth, the report emphasises the importance of the <keyword id="20260982" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="tourism-sector" source="keywords">tourism sector</keyword>, which is relatively less skill-dependent, for employment generation. To capitalise on this opportunity, public policy should focus on enhancing the tourism sector's infrastructure and services.</li></ul><h2>Upskilling for the future</h2>India's job market is on an exciting trajectory. But addressing the skills gap, adapting to technological advancements and promoting innovation is crucial. By upskilling the workforce through government and industry collaboration, India can become a high-value partner in areas like cybersecurity and enterprise management. <div type="Article" hostid="261" msid="111923191" title="Economic Survey 2024 – industries grow by 9.5%, fueling economic growth to 8.2%" mstype="2" mssubtype="0"></div>

You Searched For "fmcg sector rural demand" and got 8 results

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India FMCG sector profits may be weighed by ad spend hikes, price cuts: BNP Paribas

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