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<ul><li>FMCG giant HUL’s shares reported a decline of over 6% on Thursday.</li><li>This comes a day after the company reported a 2.33% decline in consolidated net profit in Q2.</li><li>The stock tanked 6.59% to ₹2,483.95 on the NSE.</li></ul>Shares of FMCG major <keyword id="20002610" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Hindustan-Unilever" source="keywords">Hindustan Unilever</keyword> Ltd (HUL) on Thursday tumbled over 6% after the firm reported a 2.33% decline in consolidated net profit for the second quarter ended in September. The stock tanked 6.59% to ₹2,483.95 on the NSE. The stock emerged as the biggest laggard among the Sensex and Nifty firms during the morning trade. Hindustan Unilever Ltd on Wednesday reported a 2.33% decline in consolidated net profit at ₹2,595 crore for the second quarter ended in September 2024, impacted by moderation in demand from the urban market. The company had logged a net profit of ₹2,657 crore in the July-September quarter a year ago, HUL said in a regulatory filing. However, revenue from product sales was up 2.36% at ₹15,703 crore in the September quarter, from ₹15,340 crore in the year-ago period, HUL which owns power brands such as Surf, Rin, Lux, Pond's, Lifebuoy, Lakme, Brooke Bond, Lipton and Horlicks said. "In the September quarter, <keyword id="21419477" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="FMCG-demand" source="keywords">FMCG demand</keyword> witnessed moderating growth in urban markets, while rural continued to recover gradually. In this context, we delivered a competitive and profitable performance," HUL CEO and Managing Director Rohit Jawa said. HUL reported an underlying sales growth of 2% and underlying volume growth of 3%. Total expenses were at ₹12,581 crore in the September quarter, up 3.03% year-on-year. HUL's total income, which includes other income, was up 2.14% to ₹16,145 crore in the September quarter of FY25. Addressing an earnings call, HUL CFO Ritesh Tiwari said, "Two thirds of our business we do in urban areas, and one-third we do in rural areas … we are seeing growth in the urban market moderating. We are seeing rural growth recovery is gradual … it impacts all the categories that we have." On the outlook, he said, "In the near term, we expect demand trends to be stable with no further acceleration in pace of growth." In this context, Tiwari said, "Our focus remains on driving competitive volume-led growth, while continuing investments behind our brands and strategy priorities … If commodity prices remain where they are, we expect a low single digit price growth in the near-term." With inputs from PTI. SEE ALSO: <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/stock-market/webstories/afcons-infrastructure-ipo-gmp-risk-factors-and-all-you-need-to-know/slidelist/114490954.cms">Afcons Infrastructure IPO – GMP, risk factors and all you need to know</a> <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/tech/news/upi-refund-scam-to-digital-arrest-scam-here-are-most-common-online-scams-in-india/articleshow/114428011.cms">UPI refund to digital arrest scam, here are some online scams you need to be aware of</a> <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/stock-market/news/waaree-energies-ipo-allotment-how-to-check-allotment-ipo-gmp-listing-date-and-more/articleshow/114508632.cms">Waaree Energies IPO allotment – How to check allotment, IPO GMP, listing date and more</a>

Hindustan Unilever shares tumble over 6% post Q2 results

<ul><li>Local brands are making a comeback after their pandemic lows, and are now competing with national brands in categories like detergents, noodles, masalas and more.</li><li>HUL CEO said in an earnings concall that they have seen a market share dip in certain mass categories.</li><li>The number of homes that buy over 4-5 brands of the same product are growing, says a Kantar report. </li></ul>In Karnataka, many stores now have ‘1 To 3 Noodles’ on display along with Nestle’s 2-minute Maggi, the category leader. Apart from a stellar 35% penetration in the state, this local brand is catering to local tastes with a desi twist to instant noodles that comes with more masala. Similarly, North India-based Vasant Masala is catering the specific spice needs with its Awadh Garam Masala. There are more such examples of local brands that concentrate only on specific states — that are making a headway into the retail shelf space as well as the consumer’s homes, if not hearts. “Local brands live up to the local tastes better,” K Ramamkrishan, MD South Asia of Kantar tells Business Insider India. Moreover, these brands are bringing value onto the table beyond price points by capturing the specific preferences of the states and relationships with retailers. So much so, now they’re threatening the national brands sold by FMCG behemoths. “Local brands are no more brands that have basic packaging with a brand name. They are innovating, have brand ambassadors. Today local brands are only limited by their presence not their ambition,” said Ramamkrishan. He says the speed of decision making in local brands is high, and their agility allows them to capture dynamic trends in shopping habits faster. Back from pandemic lows Kantar’s Consumer Connections 2023 report says that there has been a resurgence in local brands that had faced troubles during the pandemic. Curtailed by their inability to raise prices, over 12 brands have shut shop during the pandemic. Many more couldn’t source raw material during the high inflationary period, or bear the costs, Ramamkrishan explains. With the pandemic over, the troubles have decreased and local brands are back with a vengeance. FMCG major HUL also admitted in its recent quarterly announcement that regional brands have curtailed the price growth in the sector. Rohit Jawa, CEO of HUL said that it has seen dips in market share in the mass segment due to small and regional players. “There has been a resurgence of small and regional players in select categories due to softening commodity prices – many of whom had vacated the market during the peak of inflation,” he said in an earnings concall. Most of the local brands tend to categories that are already high in penetration such as food and beverage, detergents, spices, washing powders, hair oils etc. “For example they won't be in face washes where the penetration is low,” Ramkrishnan explains. Kantar has picked a few brands like — Reflect Dishwash in Maharashtra, Saras Detergent Bar in Gujarat, Challenge Detergent Bar in Tamil Nadu, Sastry Balms in Andhra Pradesh, Supreme51 in Madhya Pradesh as some of the single-state brands that have exhibited double or even triple digit growth in the last one year, along with extensive penetration in the state of their choice. Flirting with many brands While consumers are pivoting towards local brands, they’re not shedding their loyalty to national brands either. The complex Indian consumers are more tuned to experimenting more. Ramkrishnan calls it ‘flirting with multiple brands’. The number of shopping trips or purchase occasions for Indians are growing at a rapid pace, says Kantar. An Indian makes 152 shopping trips in a year – which breaks it down to one in every 58 hours. This also includes e-commerce shopping. It indicates that people are buying only as much as required, and household consumption levels are not back to normal in spite of signs of revival. But a few others also prefer frequent shopping for reasons like freshness, accessibility and more. More shopping trips means more experimenting. The homes that buy over eight brands of biscuits/cookies rose to 34% in 2023 from 24% in 2022. The percentage of homes that buy over three brands of washing powders and liquids came in at 47%, going up by 6% in a year. And, 43% of homes bought over six brands of soap bars in 2023, rising by over 5%. Experimenting Indians are also giving a fillip to direct-to-consumer brands that have national ambitions buoyed by PE and VC investors who are betting big on them — all indicating rising competition in the sector.

Local brands rise as Indians flirt with newbies

<ul><li>Price cuts taken in mass segments will erase pricing-led growth seen in FMCG companies.</li><li>Few analysts are confident that price cuts will add to volume growth in Q2.</li><li>Without a meaningful rural recovery, volume growth will remain slow. </li></ul>It might be a slow second quarter for FMCG companies with hazy volume recovery and tapering raw material effects. The rise of new and local players have been eating into the business of top FMCG players. And, they chose to <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/business/news/soap-opera-fmcg-players-kick-off-price-war-to-bring-back-whats-lost/articleshow/103657469.cms">take price cuts in mass categories </a> during the quarter. Analysts are divided on how much price cuts will add to volume growth. A report by Centrum said that price cuts pushing are primary volumes but off-take lags. The demand for packaged foods is rising but hair oils, toothpaste categories saw falling volumes. “Selling prices have been rationalised given the drop in commodity costs but there has not been a commensurate increase in volumes yet,” said J M Financial. The pricing-led growth in FMCG companies is now a thing of the past. Without significant volume recovery, revenues are ecpected to remain subdued this quarter. “We expect low single digit volume growth and low-to-mid single-digit value growth for most FMCG companies, with the tapering of pricing growth due to price cuts and/or anniversarization of price hikes. The underlying rural demand remains subdued. Uptick, if any, would be optical off a low base,” said a report by Kotak Institutional Equities. Analysts believe that without a meaningful recovery in rural demand which is yet to pick up, volume recovery will remain slow. Even tapering inflation during the quarter has not improved the rural consumer sentiment due to unseasonal rains. Moreso, the festive consumption of discretionary items also comes with a lag this year due to the ‘Adhik Mas’ effect. Raw material benefits slip On the other hand, the margin growth seen last quarter due to lower raw materials will also taper off. The raw material index has moved up by 8-9% over the last three months. Between July and September, crude oil prices rallied by 20%, and commodities will not be as benign as they were in Q1. On a year-on-year basis however their costs will be lower, adding to margins due a favourable basis. “A favourable base would still drive strong year on year gross profit margin expansion and earnings for September quarter, but some of the margin gains would be in the base soon especially given the recent uptick in raw material prices,” said J M Financial. The stress of rising competition will also eat into margins in more ways than price cuts. Players will continue to ‘normalise’ brand-building investments that were run down during the hyper-inflationary phase in FY23. “Most companies have indicated that a large part of gross margin savings will be invested behind brands. Hence, operating margin expansion will be lower compared to gross margin expansion,” said Sharekhan. Investors will watch out for management commentary on how volume uptick in the second half of the year. And a picture on when rural India will see a full-fledged recovery. <div type="javascript" title="Custom" contenttype="Text"><cdata><![CDATA[]]></cdata></div>

Price cuts might not bring in volume growth for FMCG majors in Q2 say analysts

<ul><li>FMCG companies are expected to register strong margins in Q1 as they will see the full effect of earlier-taken price hikes playing out. Cooling raw material prices will help. </li><li>Demand for staples have been stable, but the beauty and personal care category has not yet recovered fully. </li><li>The summer has seen a decline or low growth in ice creams and juices due to unseasonal rains. </li></ul>With cooling raw material costs, the FMCG sector is expected to kick in the first quarter of FY24 with ‘good quality’ profits, backed by improvement in margins. Input costs have been cooling over the last few quarters and have either remained stable or seen mild moderation, and companies have not been passing them off very generously in the form of price cuts. “We expect most of the companies to register stronger sequential gross profit margin (GPM) improvement in 1Q24F with input cost inflation cooling down further, high-priced inventory getting consumed and the full effect of earlier-taken price hikes playing out,” said a research report by Nomura. Certain categories such as hair oils, edible oils and soaps had witnessed price cuts in earlier quarters, which will flow through in the first quarter, as per BNP Paribas. Also, new price cuts and promotions were seen in laundry, edible oils and other home care categories during the quarter but no major price cuts were seen in biscuits and salts. Double digit revenue growth expected Price cuts and volume growth for the sector are directly proportional for the sector, and as of now most of growth seen in the sector was pricing-led. But that’s changing, analysts say. Demand from urban areas has been stable, with slight sequential improvement in rural demand as well. Also, the demand for staples have been stable, but the beauty and personal care category has not yet recovered though improving due to the price cuts. All in all, the sector should be able to present a good revenue growth for the quarter – notwithstanding the cooler summer this April-June with unseasonal rains that affected sales of juices and ice creams. “We estimate staples/discretionary (ex-ITC) pack to register 10.2%/8.8% revenue growth. We expect a good quarter from Nestle, Godrej Consumers and ITC and a weak print from Marico,” says a report by Kotak. Antique Stock Broking also expects the FMCG sector (not including ITC) to report early double digit revenue growth with moderation in pricing led growth. ITC is expected to see a fall in revenue as its agri business is expected to see a drop due to high-base effects. Nomura expects Nestle, Tata Consumers and Dabur to report the highest revenue growth YoY, and with ITC and Marico to post lower value growth. FMCG sector revenue growth projections YoY <table style="border-width: initial; border-style: none; table-layout: fixed; width: 468pt;"></colgroup><tbody><tr><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">Company </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">Nomura </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">Kotak Institutional Equities </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">Antique Stock Broking </td></tr><tr><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">HUL </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;"> 9.1% </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">9.1% </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">9% </td></tr><tr><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">ITC </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">-6.1% </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">4.6%* </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">-6% </td></tr><tr><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">Marico </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">6.5% </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">4.2% </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">4% </td></tr><tr><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">Dabur </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">9.4% </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">10% </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">9% </td></tr><tr><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">Godrej Consumer </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">10.2% </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">10% </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">NA </td></tr><tr><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">Tata Consumer Products </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">11.3% </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">12.5% </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">NA </td></tr><tr><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">Nestle India </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">15.7% </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">16.6% </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">16% </td></tr></tbody></table>Source: Research reports *Kotak has considered standalone results for ITC Price cuts &amp; rising competition The street will closely watch management commentary on pricing, as analysts believe that the sector is poised for a good show in the first half of FY24 with a raw material cost tailwind. “However, in the second half of FY24 we expect revenue growth to moderate as pricing benefits should fade and growth would have to be volume-led,” said a report by BNP Paribas. There has been no aggressive price war as of now in the sector as of now, but if price cuts are not taken by large players in the segment, it might lead to unorganized players gaining market share. In the last one year, many consumers have ‘downtraded’ to unbranded products or local brands during periods of high inflation. “Prices of most stock keeping units (SKUs) have increased sharply over the last two years. Soap and detergent prices have risen 40-50% over that period. So far the price cuts have been limited and largely confined to the value segment. We believe price cuts might be needed to drive volumes,” said BNP Paribas. Without pricing strategies laid out, most FMCG players might see revenue growth challenges re-emerge this year, especially in the second half. SEE ALSO <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/business/corporates/news/it-companies-like-tcs-infosys-wipro-hcl-tech-q1-2023-24-earnings-preview/articleshow/101482733.cms">IT sector Q1 earnings preview: All eyes on deal wins, revenue guidance cuts</a> <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/thelife/news/want-your-veggies-to-taste-like-chocolate-a-vr-glass-may-help-trick-your-mind/articleshow/101487079.cms">Want your veggies to taste like chocolate? A VR glass may help trick your mind</a>

FMCG sector Q1 preview — Caught between price cuts and volume growth

<ul><li>Top FMCG companies have cut prices of soap, detergents and hair oils.</li><li>Competition has gone up in the sector after many smaller, regional players making a comeback.</li><li>FMCG players said last quarter that they had to cede some of their market share to smaller players.</li><li>At the time, rise in agri commodity prices is making some of them hike prices of items like coffee and other beverages. </li></ul>After facing the onslaught of smaller and regional players in the last quarter, FMCG majors are on a path to cut prices to boost volumes as well sales. This pricing action is being seen mostly in categories that contribute large volumes and with a high share of unorganized players — like soaps, detergents, hair oils and edible oils. <keyword id="6365619" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="hindustan-unilever" source="Orion">Hindustan Unilever</keyword> has taken price cuts to the tune of 9-10% in soaps, <keyword id="6361491" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="procter-gamble" source="Orion">Procter &amp; Gamble</keyword> too cut <keyword id="443581" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="detergent-prices" source="Orion">detergent prices</keyword> by 11%. <keyword id="4283144" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="patajali" source="Orion">Patajali</keyword> slashed its soap as well as hair oil prices, as per a recent report by Kotak Institutional Equities. Top FMCG players said at the end of the April-June quarter that they had to cede some of their market share to smaller players. As per Nomura, their impact on market share on organized players is under control as of now, but needs to be watched closely. A lot of these players have shut up during the pandemic, but have ‘mushroomed’ back. “As the raw material prices have come down and have remained stable, there is increased competition from smaller players. Hence, most FMCG companies have undertaken price cuts to pass on the raw material benefits, and at the same time, they have increased ad spending to protect their market share,” Preeyam Tolia, senior research analyst of FMCG at Axis Securities told Business Insider India. Moreso, the volume growth trend has slowed down for most FMCG players due to slower-than-expected growth in the rural areas. Besides, the trend of downtrading had taken over during the era of high inflation last year, when players had to increase their prices. In Q1, even as volume growth remained tepid, the profitability of FMCG companies was high due to softening of prices of certain raw materials. Palm oil prices were down 2% month-on-month and by 26% year-on-year. Copra/coconut oil prices (updated until July 2023) remained in deflation, down 8% month-on-month and by 11% year on year. “Currently crude and palm oil used to make soaps and inputs such as soda ash used in detergents are showing a downward price trend, that is the reason many soap brands have reduced the prices to increase their volume and are passing on the margin benefits to consumers,” said Sraboni Haralalka, executive director at Wodehouse Capital Advisors. Can price cuts help? Most experts believe that the benefits of these price cuts on volume growth can be seen with a lag, in the second half of the current fiscal year. A few however believe volume growth itself might not be enough for companies that have been banking on pricing-led growth in the last few quarters. “Most other categories did not resort to any pricing action (apart from soaps, detergents, hair-oil, edible-oils), leading to anniversarying of pricing and lesser contribution to overall value growth. We expect no or negligible contribution from pricing in coming quarters; optically lowering overall value growth for the sector,” said Nomura. Added to that, the ability to take a next round of price cuts might also be lowered, experts believe as the prices of crude are inching up again. While crude oil prices were down by 14%, they have jumped 8% on a month-on-month basis – showing that the trend might see a back up. “We must look at the impact of the recent increase in crude oil prices. Any further increase in crude oil price would delay the price cuts and, hence, volume recovery,” says Tolia. Shampoo, coffee &amp; toothpastes get pricier While tea and biscuits prices have remained steady, the prices of coffee have inched up due to hardening agri commodity prices — especially in the case of cereals and milk in the last few months. “Prices remained stable in dairy except for Nestle, which increased the prices of its milk powder and curd by 2% and 5%, respectively. Nestle took another round of around 3-5% of price increases in its baby food portfolio, taking cumulative increases to 6-11% in the past six months,” said Kotak Institutional Equities. Health food drinks witnessed price rises of around 2-8% by Abbott, Danone and Mondelez. “Agri-commodities products have surged up. Food companies such as Nestle and Britannia may either increase product prices or take a hit on their margins and focus on volume growth,” said Haralalka. Products like confectionery, toothpastes and shampoos also saw price hikes from players like Vicco, HUL, Dabur and P&amp;G. Also price rises are seen in face and body washes, deodorants, air fresheners, men’s grooming and feminine hygiene – especially in areas where end consumer purchasing power is high. The margins in personal care products are higher and consumers don’t downgrade as easily as they do in the laundry or hair oil segments. The year of FY24 is expected to be a year of volume growth as FMCG companies are fighting to bring back their ‘small pack’ consumers. At the same time, inflation on the horizon is presenting a very cloudy picture for companies – making them re-think their pricing strategy in a way that ensures volume and margins hold steady.

Soap Opera: FMCG players kick off price war to bring back what’s lost

<ul><li>Retailers can be served better by multi-category platforms as they seek competitive rates, says <keyword id="3359665" type="General" weightage="80" keywordseo="redseer" source="Orion">Redseer</keyword> report. </li><li>Multi-category platforms like <keyword id="6357316" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="udaan" source="Orion">Udaan</keyword> have gained market share to reach 55-60% of the retailer-led eB2B market. </li><li>India’s eB2B market is projected to grow from $5-6 billion in 2022 to $90-$100 billion by 2030. </li></ul>India’s vast retail system comprises a variety of sizes – from the local general stores or kiranas to the organised big players. This whole system is supported by a large, haphazard and unorganised system of wholesalers largely. However, in order to grow to its true potential, the retail system will have to bank on organised electronic business-to-business (eB2B) players going forward, according to a report by advisory firm Redseer. The rationale for the argument is that India is a potential $950 billion retail market and thus will do better if served by multi-category platforms, which in turn will smoothen processes for the front end player. Multi-category platforms offer products across groceries - both staples and <keyword id="34523" type="General" weightage="50" keywordseo="fmcg" source="Orion">FMCG</keyword>, electronics and accessories, general merchandise, fashion, and others. Current picture As per the Redseer report, there are few such big eB2B platforms which have a <keyword id="106831" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="pan-india" source="Orion">pan-India</keyword> play currently. Most are eB2B platforms that operate in fewer categories or verticals and access regional and national levels. “Over the last few months, many of these vertical platforms have been struggling, and across categories have shown limited growth/ been flat or declined due to challenging unit economics and prevailing macro-economic conditions, while multi-category platforms like Udaan have gained market share to reach 55-60% of the retailer-led eB2B market,” said <keyword id="4436374" type="General" weightage="50" keywordseo="mrigank-gutgutia" source="Orion">Mrigank Gutgutia</keyword>, partner at Redseer. Udaan is a B2B trade platform, designed specifically for small and medium businesses. Why multicategory platforms? Retailers are dogged by many issues that come with an unorganised market, and there is a case for new-age eB2B platforms that can solve these issues. “The fragmented market puts retailers at a disadvantage procuring from traditional channels owing to price opacity, slow/no deliveries, stockouts, and inconsistent product quality, among other challenges,” says a Redseer report. Retailers who decide to take their business online from the traditional channels, seek competitive rates across categories, and might have to resort to multiple B2B suppliers. “For instance, a retailer might procure rice from a particular eB2B platform and choose a different one for detergent. Unless the same platform can offer both at competitive rates, the retailer would buy from different platforms based on their margins,” Redseer said. Enabling this competitiveness requires cross-leveraging capabilities and costs, and multi-category first-party (1P) platforms with inventory-based models have a distinct advantage, the consulting firm says. While grocery and staples provide them with volumes, discretionary items might be able to drive margins — both which are needed to be in this large market. Growth path and way forward According to Redseer, India’s eB2B market is projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate or CAGR of 40-45% – i.e. from $5-6 billion in 2022 to $90-$100 billion by 2030. “Growth in this market will be led by deepening penetration among retailers across categories and geographies, and a higher wallet share for eB2B platforms. Retailers will get habituated and reap the benefits offered by these platforms, such as cheaper procurement, faster deliveries, higher fill rates, and consistency in product quality,” said Mrigank.

India’s retail system needs more Udaan-like models for the unorganised market

<ul><li>Volume contraction for the FMCG sector was more pronounced in rural areas, says a <keyword id="87153" type="General" weightage="80" keywordseo="bnp-paribas" source="Orion">BNP Paribas</keyword> report. </li><li>While the research firm expects margin improvement in FY24, its earnings estimates are below consensus on account of INR depreciation, increase in ad spends and selective price cuts. </li><li>We think consensus earnings estimates for FY24/25 are too optimistic, the report says. </li><li>The valuation multiples of Indian FMCG companies have expanded since June 2022, BNP Paribas says. </li></ul>Consumer goods majors have been hit hard by inflation over the last few quarters, with volume growth taking a backseat. Clearly, growth has been driven by multiple price hikes that were taken by the players – and not volume growth. The road ahead looks better as commodity prices are cooling and price cuts could even spur consumption. In spite of the fact that affluent India’s consumption is holding up well, volumes from mass-market and categories that benefitted from Covid like healthcare and hygiene segments <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/finance/article/inflation-burns-a-hole-in-the-pockets-of-indias-lower-income-households-from-fmcg-goods-flip-flops-to-crackers-consumption-takes-a-backseat/articleshow/95536971.cms">were affected by inflation</a>. “Revenue growth was driven by price hikes, with volumes remaining subdued across categories. The volume contraction was more pronounced in rural areas. Companies expect rural demand to recover in the second half of FY23, on the back of government interventions, a good monsoon and higher crop realisations,” says BNP Paribas. Ad spends and price cuts Going forward, BNP shares the optimism of the companies that the second half of the current financial year will bode well for revenues and margins too as commodity prices are moderating. “While we expect margin improvement in FY24, our earnings estimates are below consensus as we anticipate INR depreciation, an increase in advertisement spends and selective price cuts to drive volumes that are under pressure,” said the research firm. Lower ad spends in addition to a cut in corporate tax rates have been aiding the sector’s earnings growth for the last five fiscal years in spite of muted growth in revenues and gross profits. But now ad spends might resume to bring back consumers who have been downtrading to cheaper unbranded products for the last six months, leaving little scope for a strong margin recovery. Lower estimates, pricier stocks BNP Paribas raised its sales estimates for most companies during the earnings season but lowered the aggregate EBITDA margin for the sector by 30 bps to 20.9-22.1% for FY23 and FY24 – thereby reducing EBITDA as well as earning per share by 1-2% for both the years. “While the outlook for FY24 is positive, driven by moderation in raw material costs and signs of a <keyword id="9592296" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="rural-recovery" source="Orion">rural recovery</keyword>, we think consensus earnings estimates for FY24/25 are too optimistic. With no triggers for a sharp multiple de-rating, we believe some stocks can see time correction over the next year. Our preferred sector picks remain ITC, Britannia, Emami and Jubilant Foodworks,” said the report. Most FMCG stocks have been on a bull run in the last five months, and that has made them expensive relative to the tough conditions that await for its volume growth. “Since June 2022, the valuation multiples of Indian FMCG companies have expanded as concerns about unabated inflation eased. This has led to several stocks moving above their five-year mean next twelve months, price to earnings ratio,” the report said. The downside risks that the research firm sees include an increase in competitive intensity, leading to companies cutting prices and sales growing at a lower-than-expected rate; and lower-than-expected margin recovery. Rural recovery to be affected by muted Kharif season Many economists and rating agencies are also questioning the pace of economic growth of the country – marred by <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/finance/news/no-end-to-downgrades-in-gdp-estimates-as-economists-remain-divided-on-severity-of-slowdown/articleshow/95847763.cms">constant downgrades</a>. Apart from global spillovers, experts believe that a lot is riding on the rural recovery – that will play a big role in the volume and revenue growth of FMCG majors. While there have been green shoots of recovery seen in <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/business/auto/news/mixed-demand-trends-for-autos-in-november-as-festive-boost-wears-off-but-signs-of-rural-recovery-visible/articleshow/95848505.cms">spurts like auto sales</a>, rural consumption has remained muted even after lockdowns ended. A major driver for rural recovery is a good Kharif crop, which, however, has been affected by erratic monsoons this year. “Untimely heavy rainfall in the states across North-west and Central India between end-September 2022 and mid-October 2022 is likely to have added to the moisture levels of the standing crop, which poses some downside risks to the kharif output relative to the first Advance Estimates,” said an ICRA report. SEE ALSO <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/business/news/vikram-kirloskar-the-mit-engineer-who-loved-to-build-factories/articleshow/95875911.cms">Vikram Kirloskar: The MIT engineer who loved to build factories</a> <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/business/corporates/article/tatas-mega-aviation-merger-is-poised-for-flight-but-the-skies-are-not-clear-yet/articleshow/95526116.cms">Tata's mega aviation merger is poised for flight, but the skies are not clear yet</a>

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