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As the <keyword id="19938590" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="NDA" source="keywords">NDA</keyword> is all set to form the government, <keyword id="19949381" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Fitch-Ratings" source="keywords">Fitch Ratings</keyword> on Thursday said <keyword id="21935526" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="coalition-politics" source="keywords">coalition politics</keyword> and a <keyword id="21957811" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="weakened-mandate" source="Orion">weakened mandate</keyword> could make it challenging to pass legislations on ambitious reforms. "We believe major reforms to land and labour laws will remain on the new government's agenda as it seeks to enhance India's manufacturing sector, but these have long been contentious and the NDA's weaker mandate will complicate their passage further. This could reduce the potential upside to India's medium-term growth prospects," <keyword id="19950093" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="fitch" source="keywords">Fitch</keyword> said in a statement. The <keyword id="19894848" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="bjp" source="keywords">BJP</keyword> fell short of a single-party majority in the 543-seat lower house of parliament for the first time since its latest period in government that began in 2014. But Fitch expects it to secure enough support from allied parties in the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) to form a government with Narendra Modi remaining Prime Minister. The outcome should support broad policy continuity, with the government continuing to prioritise infrastructure capex, improvements to the business environment, and gradual fiscal consolidation, Fitch Ratings said. "However, coalition politics and a weakened mandate could make it challenging to pass legislation on the more ambitious parts of the <keyword id="21957445" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="government-reform" source="keywords">government reform</keyword> agenda," it said in a detailed note post the Lok Sabha election results which were announced late on Tuesday. The NDA appears set to retain power with a narrower majority after India's recent election, following a weaker performance by its dominant member, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). "We do not think that the government's losses at the ballot box will lead to substantial policy adjustments, but the post-election budget in July should provide greater clarity on its economic reform priorities and fiscal plans over the coming five years," Fitch said. It said implementation of <keyword id="20404815" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="economic-reforms" source="keywords">economic reforms</keyword> during the first two NDA terms was mixed, but some positive measures were passed including the Goods and Services Tax (GST) law and Bankruptcy Code in 2016. The government also increased public infrastructure investment significantly, helping to put India among the fastest-growing major economies in recent years, with real GDP growth reaching 8.2 per cent in the fiscal year ending March 2024 (FY24). Fitch expects growth to remain rapid at 7 per cent in current fiscal (April-March). "We expect India's medium-term growth performance to remain around our trend estimate of 6.2 per cent through FY28, despite the government's slimmer majority. The continued public capex drive to address infrastructure gaps, ongoing digitalisation efforts, and improved bank and corporate balance sheets - relative to the pre-pandemic situation - should facilitate a strong outlook for private investment," Fitch said. The rating agency expects the Production-Linked Incentives (PLI) scheme to remain intact, which will help attract FDI in target sectors, such as electronics. However, private investment has not yet accelerated meaningfully, which represents a risk for the outlook. Fitch believe land and labours laws reforms will continue to advance at the state level in some parts of the country. There is also some potential for judicial reforms that would look to lower costs and speed resolution of court cases. Weaker fiscal metrics relative to peers are a significant constraint for India's sovereign rating, which we affirmed at 'BBB-' with a Stable Outlook in January 2024. "The next government's ability to address high fiscal deficits and reduce debt will be important considerations for the rating in the next few years. "Sustained deficit reduction, particularly if underpinned by durable revenue-raising reforms, would be positive for India's sovereign rating fundamentals over the medium term," Fitch added. The government has improved its record on achieving deficit targets and has advanced fiscal consolidation gradually over the past few years. We expect this focus on gradual consolidation to broadly be sustained. The FY24 budget deficit came in at 5.6 per cent of GDP, below the revised budget estimate of 5.8 per cent (which matched Fitch's estimate). Fitch expects the 5.1 per cent deficit target for FY25 to be attained, and said government's goal of reducing the deficit to 4.5 per cent of GDP in FY26 appears increasingly achievable, although the election marginally increased risks of higher spending or slippage in capex to accommodate greater social spending.

Coalition politics, weakened mandate could make passing legislations on ambitious reforms challenging: Fitch

New Delhi [<keyword id="19895063" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="india" source="keywords">India</keyword>], February 12 (ANI): India's demand for petroleum products is likely to increase by a mid-single-digit percentage in the financial year ending March 2024, following a 10 per cent post-pandemic recovery in 2022-23, according to <keyword id="19949381" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="fitch-ratings" source="keywords">Fitch Ratings</keyword>. Both petrol and diesel sales recorded robust 4-6 per cent increases in the first nine months of 2023-24, fuelled by heightened economic activities in the agriculture and power sectors, coupled with a surge in holiday travel and auto sales. Fitch said it expects Indian refiners' gross refining margins (GRM) to moderate during 2024-25 from the strong levels expected in 2023-24, but remain above mid-cycle levels. By 2025-26, it foresees a shift closer to mid-cycle levels, but remaining resilient, bolstered by the escalating demand for end-products. "The gradual normalisation of the crude supply mix away from Russian imports is likely to narrow GRMs, although we expect margins to stay strong, supported by the rising demand for end-products," the rating agency said. In the upstream segment, domestic oil and gas production has modestly increased, driven by a 5 per cent rise in gas production in the first nine months of 2023-24. "We expect production to continue to rise moderately as technological investments in enhanced oil recovery techniques will offset natural declines," the rating agency said. Fitch forecasts the oil and gas sector's high capex intensity to continue in the medium term, particularly with upstream companies investing in production enhancement. In the downstream segment, <keyword id="20039004" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="hindustan-petroleum-corporation-limited" source="keywords">Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Limited</keyword> should maintain higher capex due to planned investments by its subsidiary, HPCL <keyword id="20521636" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="rajasthan-refinery-limited" source="keywords">Rajasthan Refinery Limited</keyword>. The capex of other oil marketing companies, including HPCL-Mittal Energy Limited, should be minimal as they have completed their expansion projects, it said. India, the world's third-biggest oil importer and consumer, is dependent on crude oil from various sources in the global market to meet its domestic demand. (ANI)

India's petroleum products demand to increase mid-single-digit percentage in 2023-24: Fitch

<keyword id="19938772" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Reliance-Industries-Ltd" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="Reliance Industries Ltd" meta.hostid="267" meta.entityid="Reliance Industries Ltd">Reliance Industries Ltd</keyword> has won a vote of confidence from global rating agencies <keyword id="20043943" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="SP" source="keywords">S&amp;P</keyword> and <keyword id="19950093" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Fitch" source="keywords">Fitch</keyword> after its robust earnings in the fiscal year ended March 31, 2024, supported its growth aspirations and kept leverage under check. S&amp;P Global Ratings and Fitch Ratings in separate notes spoke of its <keyword id="19957744" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="EBITDA" source="keywords">EBITDA</keyword> (loosely known as pre-tax profit) rising in the current fiscal year and next on rising revenue and past investments. "<keyword id="19896380" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Reliance-Industries" source="keywords">Reliance Industries</keyword> Ltd's (<keyword id="20002939" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="ril" source="keywords">RIL</keyword>) strong earnings will keep leverage in check as the company continues to pursue growth ambitions. We expect the company's debt-to-EBITDA ratio to remain commensurate with the rating (BBB+/Stable/--)," S&amp;P said in a note. The oil-to-telecom-and-retail conglomerate's growth aspirations remain intact, it said, adding the company has ramped up investments in the media business in recent months. In 2024, it entered into binding definitive agreements with The Walt Disney Co for a media joint venture in which RIL will invest Rs 11,500 crore. The company subsequently agreed to buy Paramount Global's 13.01 per cent stake in local entertainment network Viacom18 Media Pte Ltd for about Rs 4,300 crore. "These investments are in line with RIL's strategy to diversify and have a strong presence in a few key industries," the rating agency said. Also, the company received government approval in 2024 to develop gas reserves in the KG-D6 block in the Bay Of Bengal. This could increase the company's gas production capacity by 13-17 per cent. RIL's earlier announced investments include a Rs 75,000 crore expansion plan over five years (starting 2022) for the oil-to-chemicals business. "RIL's earnings will benefit from past investments," S&amp;P said. "We project the company's adjusted EBITDA will rise 2-4 per cent in fiscal 2025 (year ending March 31, 2025)," it added. Just as in the past two years, the digital services segment (Reliance Jio Infocomm Ltd) will be the key growth driver, with segment's EBITDA (Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation, and Amortisation) increasing 10-12 per cent in fiscal 2025. Reliance Jio's wireless subscriber base and average revenue per user will gain from the company's investments in its 5G network since late 2022. Meanwhile, earnings in the oil and gas as well as retail segments will reap the rewards of increased production volume and a wider retail store network. "The EBITDA improvement that we expect in fiscal 2025 comes after a 14 per cent increase to Rs 1.6 lakh crore in fiscal 2024," it said. S&amp;P saw RIL's rising earnings providing it greater balance-sheet flexibility for growth. "We expect the combination of robust operating performances and continued spending to keep the company's debt-to-EBITDA ratio at 1.8x-2.0x over the next two years. This compares with our estimate of 1.7x for fiscal 2024 and our downgrade trigger of 2.5x," S&amp;P said. RIL's leverage has some distance from the upper end of the company's internal leverage target. RIL has reiterated its intention to keep its net debt-to-EBITDA ratio (by its own calculations) below 1x. The ratio was 0.65x as of March 31, 2024. Separately, Fitch Ratings said RIL's EBITDA net leverage is likely to remain below 1x in the medium term, supported by increasing cash flows and lower capex intensity, even as the conglomerate's absolute capex and investments remain high in the near term. "We expect RIL's EBITDA to increase by 8 per cent year-on-year in the financial year ending March 2025 (FY25) and 14 per cent in FY26, while capex intensity (capex/revenue) is likely to reduce below 13 per cent by FY26 (FY24: 15.3 per cent). Lower capex intensity would be driven by growing revenue and reduction in capex after FY25," it said. Fitch expected the conglomerate's Cash Flow from Operations (CFO) to be sufficient to fund its capex from FY26, which will limit additional debt funding and keep its EBITDA net leverage below 1.0x in the medium term (FY24: 0.9x, FY23: 1.1x). "Fitch estimates RIL's FY24 EBITDA net leverage at 0.9x, better than our expectation of 1.1x, driven by marginally higher EBITDA and Rs 20,900 crore of equity raised mainly from the sale of a stake in a subsidiary, even as its capex remained high at Rs 1.5 lakh crore (FY23: Rs 1.4 lakh crore)," the rating agency said in a statement. It rates RIL at 'BBB'/Stable, one notch above India's rating (BBB-/Stable). "We expect the EBITDA increase in the near to medium term to be driven by the telecom and retail businesses, supported by contribution from the upstream oil and gas segment and marginal recovery in petrochemical spreads in the oil to chemical (O2C) segment," Fitch said, adding EBITDA from digital services, largely telecom, is likely to benefit from a 10-15 per cent tariff hike and 15-20 million of additional subscribers in FY25 (FY24: 482 million subscribers). Digital services EBITDA rose by 13 per cent in FY24, as Reliance added 42 million subscribers and monthly average revenue per user increased to Rs 182. Monthly user data consumption increased by 24 per cent to 28.7 GB, one of the highest globally. Fitch expected retail EBITDA to increase by 20-25 per cent in FY25 (FY24: 28%) as Reliance continues to expand its physical stores and digital channels. EBITDA would be supported by a 22.2 per cent increase in its registered customer base to 304 million in FY24. Also, O2C segment EBITDA is expected to remain above Rs 60,000 crore in FY25 (FY24: Rs 62,400 crore), as a gradual improvement in petrochemical spreads from FY24 lows is expected as a supply overhang recedes. Upstream oil and gas EBITDA should stay at around Rs 20,000 crore in FY25 (FY24: Rs 20,200 crore), assisted by the expectation of a 10 per cent increase in gas production in the first full year of operation of three gas fields in the KG-D6 block, which should offset the potential reduction in price realisation with lower gas prices in international benchmarks. SEE ALSO: <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/stock-market/news/jnk-india-ipo-allotment-how-to-check-allotment-gmp-listing-date-and-more/articleshow/109597273.cms">JNK India IPO allotment – How to check allotment, GMP, listing date and more</a> <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/tech/news/jiocinema-introduces-new-ad-free-premium-plans-starting-at-29/articleshow/109581033.cms">An Ambani disruption in OTT: At just ₹1 per day, you can now enjoy ad-free content on JioCinema</a> <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/business/auto/webstories/ultraviolette-f77-mach-2-electric-sports-bike-launched-in-india-starting-at-2-99-lakh/slidelist/109615934.cms">Ultraviolette F77 Mach 2 electric sports bike launched in India starting at ₹2.99 lakh</a>

Reliance gets thumbs-up from S&P, Fitch as strong earnings keep leverage in check

In the realm of <keyword id="6378916" type="General" weightage="90" keywordseo="cement" source="Orion">cement</keyword> production, China and India are navigating diverging market currents, shaped by distinct economic landscapes. <keyword id="125045" type="General" weightage="50" keywordseo="fitch-ratings" source="Orion">Fitch Ratings</keyword>' insights reveal a challenging outlook for <keyword id="19792359" type="General" weightage="80" keywordseo="chinese-cement" source="Orion">Chinese cement</keyword> demand in 2024, driven by ongoing distress in the property sector. Meanwhile, India's <keyword id="34556" type="General" weightage="60" keywordseo="cement-industry" source="Orion">cement industry</keyword> charts a more optimistic course, with steady demand growth projected over the medium term. The Chinese property sector's persistent challenges and a projected slowdown in infrastructure investment contribute to weakened cement demand in 2024. Strained financing conditions for local governments, coupled with a decline in land sales, hamper their capacity to bolster spending on crucial infrastructure projects. Despite these hurdles, Fitch notes a potential stabilization of producers' margins in the face of adversity. The gross profit of China's top five cement producers witnessed a 3% decline in 3Q23, marking a notable slowdown from the sharper contractions observed in previous quarters. Anticipating a reduction in capacity, Fitch foresees smaller, less profitable producers exiting the market in 2024. Government policies on capacity control and sector decarbonisation are expected to contribute to a medium-term reduction in overall capacity. Contrasting China, India's <keyword id="82914" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="cement-sector" source="Orion">cement sector</keyword> foresees a robust trajectory driven by the nation's steady GDP expansion. Fitch predicts an annual growth rate of 6 per cent-8 per cent in cement demand over the coming years. Infrastructure and affordable housing projects, fuelled by government spending, are expected to spearhead this growth, with additional impetus from the ongoing recovery in urban housing throughout 2024. While India anticipates a doubling of annual cement capacity additions in the next five years, the industry's robust demand growth will help maintain healthy capacity utilization. Fitch notes that the top five Indian producers will spearhead new capacities, with further mergers and acquisitions on the horizon. Despite this positive outlook, the industry's focus on market share retention amid capacity expansions is likely to temper the potential widening of profit margins, even with energy prices normalizing post-2022.

China's cement sector faces headwinds, while India sees steady growth: Fitch Ratings

<div type="image" title="RBI" agency="ANI" height="900" width="1200" msid="105464045" hostid="261" sizebytes="40796" caption="&amp;lt;p&amp;gt;RBI&amp;#39;s vigilance: New consumer credit norms to bolster India&amp;#39;s financial stability amidst surging loan growth&amp;lt;/p&amp;gt;"></div>In a proactive move aimed at mitigating potential systemic risks associated with the rapid growth of <keyword id="437168" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="consumer-credit" source="Orion">consumer credit</keyword>, the Reserve Bank of India (<keyword id="30067" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="rbi" source="Orion">RBI</keyword>) has implemented stringent measures, impacting both banks and non-bank financial institutions (NBFIs). <keyword id="125045" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="fitch-ratings" source="Orion">Fitch Ratings</keyword> has provided insights into the repercussions of these regulatory adjustments on the financial sector. The central focus of the regulatory adjustments is to mandate banks and NBFIs to allocate more capital against unsecured consumer credit. Fitch Ratings views these changes as a credit-positive effort by regulatory authorities to control emergent risks in consumer credit. Notably, the growth of unsecured credit card loans and personal loans by banks witnessed an impressive 29.9 per cent and 25.5 per cent year-on-year increase, respectively, in the first half of the financial year ending March 2024. This surge in consumer credit raised concerns, prompting the need for preventive measures. The increasing exposure to unsecured consumer credit considered a riskier <keyword id="6360217" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="loan" source="Orion">loan</keyword> category, signals a greater risk appetite among banks and NBFIs. This trend is attributed to the institutions seeking to protect net interest margins (NIMs) amid fierce competition for secured retail loans. The regulatory changes introduce higher risk weightings, aligning for both banks and NBFIs. While risk weightings for credit-card lending increase to 125 per cent (from 100 per cent previously) for NBFIs, banks maintain a higher 150 per cent. Microfinance is excluded from higher risk weights for NBFIs, distinguishing it from banks. Fitch Ratings estimates that the measures may lower the common equity Tier 1 (CET1) ratio of the banking system by around 30 basis points. The impact varies for Fitch-rated banks, ranging from 6 to 34 basis points, with a double-digit impact expected for private banks like State Bank of India (SBI) and Canara Bank. Private banks, with relatively better CET1 capitalization, are expected to maintain reasonable capitalization even after the changes. The measures, however, may not significantly lower banks' capital scores or standalone Viability Ratings (VRs), though SBI's VR headroom could narrow. Fitch-rated NBFIs, including Shriram Finance Limited, Muthoot Finance Ltd, IIFL Finance Limited, and Manappuram Finance Limited, witness an impact on capitalization ratios, loan growth, and future asset quality. However, the overall impact is expected to be limited, with these entities benefiting from reduced systemic risk. NBFIs may experience a rise in bank funding costs by 40 to 60 basis points. This assumes that banks pass on capital costs from higher risk weights on loans to NBFIs. Larger NBFIs are better positioned to negotiate favorable terms with banks, while lower-rated entities could face greater increases. Loans to housing finance companies and NBFIs eligible for priority sector classification are excluded from the adjustment, benefiting entities like Shriram due to their priority sector exposure. The regulatory changes aim to strike a balance between fostering consumer credit growth and preventing the buildup of systemic risks. The phased implementation of these measures underscores the regulators' commitment to maintaining financial stability while allowing financial institutions time to adapt to the new norms. As India's financial landscape undergoes these adjustments, stakeholders are closely monitoring the impact on lending practices, risk management, and overall economic resilience. (ANI)

RBI's vigilance: New consumer credit norms to bolster India's financial stability amidst surging loan growth

<keyword id="125045" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="fitch-ratings" source="Orion">Fitch Ratings</keyword> reports that Asia-Pacific (<keyword id="156416" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="apac" source="Orion">APAC</keyword>) oil and gas (O&amp;G) producers are expected to uphold capital expenditure (<keyword id="46930" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="capex" source="Orion">capex</keyword>) for the upstream segment, primarily driven by national <keyword id="6357014" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="energy" source="Orion">energy</keyword> security and the growing need for energy transition in the region. According to Fitch Ratings, despite these financial commitments, APAC O&amp;G companies have more flexibility for capex as they have significantly reduced leverage in 2022. Additionally, most of these companies enjoy robust access to funding, thanks to their close affiliations with sovereign entities. The rising energy demand in the APAC region remains a crucial factor, motivating rated issuers to focus on maintaining or enhancing their reserves, especially in natural gas, a pivotal transitional energy source. Moreover, integrated producers are gearing up for substantial downstream investments to bolster their petrochemical capabilities. In the medium term, Fitch anticipates a swift increase in capex for rated issuers' energy transition endeavours, albeit starting from a relatively small base. Despite a growing emphasis on decarbonisation targets, fossil fuels are expected to remain the dominant source of earnings for APAC O&amp;G producers in the medium term. While many issuers have outlined long-term decarbonisation objectives, concrete plans to achieve these targets often lack implementation details. <keyword id="6422456" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="environmental" source="Orion">Environmental</keyword> regulations are predicted to become more stringent, driving the transition towards cleaner energy sources. However, this transition may be slower in the APAC region compared to Europe, where fossil fuels continue to be the primary energy source in key Asian economies. New fossil fuel projects could encounter increased regulatory challenges, especially in more developed APAC markets like Australia. Most of the APAC O&amp;G producers rated by Fitch are national oil companies or their subsidiaries. Their credit ratings are closely linked to changes in the ratings of sovereigns or government-owned parent organizations since their assessments are predominantly conducted on a top-down basis. For issuers rated on a standalone basis, they have ample rating headroom, unaffected by the current trends in capex for energy transition.

APAC Oil and Gas producers maintain capex amidst energy transition: Fitch Ratings

Economists at the country's largest lender, SBI, today said they see India's Q2 real GDP growth slowing down further to 6.5% in the September quarter of this fiscal year. Amid concerns over the country's economic growth rate and whether it is slowing down, the analysts said they expect FY25 growth to come "closer to" 7%. SBI analysts join a long line of agencies like Fitch, ADB, IMF, Moody, World Bank, S&amp;P, and even RBI in forecasting India's GDP growth for FY25 in the range of 6.8% to 7.2% for FY25, driven by robust consumption and investment. SIP inflows have been at an all-time high, and so has QIP (qualified institutional placement) fundraising. As many as 71 companies raised Rs 88,678 crore this year through QIPs. Activity in Indian primary markets also remained robust, with 78 mainboard IPOs in 2024; this is a 111% rise from just 38 listings in FY23. Between April and June 2024, India's real GDP grew by 6.7%, the lowest growth seen in 15 quarters, pushing experts to believe that India is caught in a cycle of slowdown. "There is some incipient pressure evident on the domestic economy. Based on our analysis of 50 meaningful leading indicators (both consumption and demand-centric), a dip looks plausible across select cohorts of agriculture, industry, and services in Q2," the <keyword id="22337294" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="SBI-economists" source="keywords">SBI economists</keyword> added. Stating that they track 50 indicators to gauge economic activity, SBIs note said the proportion of indicators showing acceleration declined to 69% in Q2 FY25, as against 80% in Q2 FY24 and 78% in Q1 FY25. However, things might be changing now, given that rural demand has started looking up amidst muted urban demand. SBI also explained that the ongoing regulatory tightening on unsecured lending and roadblocks that are hindering rollover/refinancing of debt through unsecured credit are dismantling the unwarranted exuberance that had built up post-pandemic, especially in the urban areas. Madhu Lunawat, CIO &amp; Fund Manager, Bharat Value Fund states that the overall investment environment remains strong due to favorable economic conditions supporting government policies &amp; reforms. "The sustainable inflow from domestic investors is going to support the Indian equity market in any kind of correction. The long-term bullish structure of Indian economy will continue to attract new domestic &amp; global investors to participate in India’s growth story through various Investment avenues.” <h2>Rate cuts not on cards</h2>RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das clarified today that changing the monetary policy stance to 'neutral' does not mean a rate cut is imminent in the central bank's next policy announcement. Notably, RBI MPC is set to meet between December 4 and 6, 2024, to decide if the prevailing repo rate of 6.5%, which has stayed unchanged for the last 2 years, should be brought down or not. In its last meeting, The <keyword id="20501100" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="RBI-monetary-policy" source="keywords">RBI monetary policy</keyword> committee had shifted its stance to 'neutral' indicating that it is open to adjusting interest rates based on economic conditions. "It should not be assumed that we have done this, so therefore the next step is a rate cut. A change in stance doesn't mean that the next step is a rate cut in the very next meeting. It's not so," Das said. Das also cautioned that inflation remains a key factor, and inflation and CPI prints for October are expected to stay high.

SBI economists see Q2 GDP growth slowing down to 6.5%; FY25 growth to be closer to 7%

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Fitch Ratings revised its office delinquency forecast for 2024 and 2025.</li><li>The sector's recovery will be slower than after the global financial crisis, it said.</li></ul>Things are not looking up for the US office sector, with loan performance set to slump even further in 2025, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.fitchratings.com/research/structured-finance/us-commercial-real-estate-office-performance-will-worsen-through-2025-07-06-2024">Fitch Ratings</a> said.After the market significantly underperformed Fitch's year-to-date expectations in May, the rating agency has revised its office delinquency forecast to 8.4% and 11% through this and next year. That's up from projections of 8.1% and 9.9%, respectively.Driving the fallout are still-elevated interest rates, cooling economic growth, and a stricter lending environment, Fitch wrote on Friday. That's all happening against a broad decline in office demand, as hybrid or fully remote work has become an entrenched norm.By one estimate, the work-from-home trend could fuel a <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/office-commercial-real-estate-crash-price-correction-debt-morgan-stanley-2024-2">30% peak-to-trough price correction for office properties</a>, and vacancy rates have only kept rising, hitting a record high of nearly 14% in May, the <a target="_blank" href="https://www.nar.realtor/research-and-statistics/research-reports/may-2024-commercial-real-estate-market-insights">National Association of Realtors</a> found."The recovery of the office sector will be slower and more drawn out during this cycle than following the global financial crisis and will lead to permanent impairments in property values, weaker performance, and higher loan losses," Fitch wrote on Friday.Fitch anticipates low refinanceability on maturing office loans through this year, with 16%-21% able to refinance. Already, offices have the lowest refinancing percentage of major property types, the rating agency noted, with the year-to-date refinancing rate hitting 5% in May.While most loans will remain cash-flow positive in the next two years, lower-quality office properties are more at risk."Eighteen out of 44 Fitch-rated office [single asset, single borrower] transactions are Fitch Loans of Concern due to refinance concerns, elevated tenancy rollover, declining occupancies/rents, high concentrations of dark/sublease spaces, limited performance stabilization and deteriorating market fundamentals," the note said.A looming commercial real estate loan crash has been a persistent worry among analysts and market observers, with <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/banks-commercial-real-estate-loan-sales-debt-interest-rates-2024-1">$2.1 trillion in debt</a> expected to mature by the end of next year.

The US office sector will worsen through next year, and the recovery will be slower than after the 2008 crisis, Fitch Ratings says

<keyword id="125045" type="General" weightage="50" keywordseo="fitch-ratings" source="Orion">Fitch Ratings</keyword> on Wednesday said it has revised the outlook on <keyword id="2981241" type="General" weightage="50" keywordseo="oravel-stays" source="Orion">Oravel Stays</keyword> Ltd's (<keyword id="2808667" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="oyo" source="Orion">OYO</keyword>) long-term foreign- and local-currency issuer default ratings to 'positive' from 'stable', while affirming the ratings at 'B-'. The ratings agency also said it has affirmed the rating on the USD 660-million senior secured term loan facility due 2026, issued by OYO's fully owned subsidiary, Oravel Stays Singapore Pte Limited, at 'B-'. "The outlook revision reflects our view that OYO is on track to generate positive EBITDA and cash flow from operations (CFO) sustainably. This follows positive EBITDA in every quarter of the financial year ended March 2023 (FY23), which is the first year of profits since OYO's incorporation in 2012," <keyword id="82981" type="General" weightage="80" keywordseo="fitch" source="Orion">Fitch</keyword> Ratings said in a statement. It further said, "We expect significant growth in its EBITDA in FY24, led by an ongoing demand recovery in the travel and tourism industry, the company's stable gross margins, and reduction in operating costs." The rating reflects OYO's asset-light business model "that benefits from minimal capex needs, largely exclusive distribution rights, pricing control over storefront inventory, fixed revenue share and strong long-term growth potential", it added. "The business profile's strengths are mitigated by the sector's high competitive intensity and demand cyclicality. The rating also reflects OYO's adequate liquidity," Fitch said. The ongoing demand recovery in the industry is expected to drive revenue growth of over 20 per cent, it said, adding, "we also expect OYO's operating leverage to benefit from a sustained reduction in costs and drive high single-digit EBITDA margins in FY24." On improved cost structure, Fitch said, "We expect the cost-reduction measures OYO undertook in recent years to support its improving profitability in FY24. We believe such reductions will not affect growth, as it has increased its business development staff to prioritise storefront additions." The ratings agency also said it estimates that "OYO's unrestricted cash at FYE23 is sufficient to fund its Fitch-estimated free cash flow deficit of around USD 7 million and annual debt repayment of around USD 6 million in FY24". However, it said, "a greater cash burn than we expect could weaken OYO's liquidity. Any potential default of the debt outstanding at one of OYO's shareholding entities owned by the founder may be a reputational risk and affect OYO's operations, and we treat this as an event risk." SEE ALSO: <a target="_blank" class="c-link c-message_attachment__title_link" href="https://www.businessinsider.in/business/auto/news/suvs-car-with-the-longest-waiting-period-in-india/slidelist/100649287.cms">Mahindra Thar, Tata Nexon and more: SUVs with the longest waiting period</a> <a target="_blank" class="c-link c-message_attachment__title_link" href="https://www.businessinsider.in/finance/news/centres-fiscal-deficit-for-2022-23-at-6-4-of-gdp-cga-data/articleshow/100649200.cms">Centre's fiscal deficit for 2022-23 at 6.4% of GDP: CGA data</a>

Fitch Ratings revises outlook on OYO's long-term issuer ratings to 'positive' from 'stable'

<ul><li><keyword id="19950093" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="fitch" source="keywords">Fitch</keyword> foresees India’s retail inflation easing to 4.7% by the end of 2024.</li><li>It raised FY24 GDP to grow at 6.9%, a tad lower than <keyword id="19899808" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="rbi" source="keywords">RBI</keyword>’s 7% forecast.</li><li>With general elections slated this year, it expects policy continuity, with gradual fiscal consolidation and economic reform momentum. </li></ul>The Indian central bank is expected to cut interest rates to the tune of 75 basis points in FY25, by international rating agency Fitch. The <keyword id="19899810" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="reserve-bank-of-india" source="keywords">Reserve Bank of India</keyword> (RBI) had hiked interest rates by as much as 290 basis points since mid-2022, after pausing in April last year. Fitch also foresees headline inflation to ease to 4.7% by the end of 2024 from 5.7% in December 2023. “Headline inflation was volatile in 2023 due to food price shocks, periodically exceeding the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) 2-6% target band. However, core inflation decelerated, reaching 3.7% in December from around 6% at end-2022, which should help anchor headline inflation,” Fitch says. Raises GDP growth outlook Fitch’s FY24 growth projections at 6.9% are marginally lower than that of RBI, which forecasted 7% growth. However, Fitch also raised its GDP growth outlook for the country, as it had earlier forecasted 6% growth. Investment, it believes will remain the key growth driver, as it sees government's capex drive is likely to continue, with a gradual acceleration in private investments. “Consumption is likely to moderate further in the near term due to reduced household savings buffers,” Fitch added. India's general elections are likely to be held in the summer of 2024. It expects policy continuity, with gradual fiscal consolidation and economic reform momentum. “Polls indicate that the incumbent government led by the Bharatiya Janata Party under Prime Minister <keyword id="19895781" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="narendra-modi" source="keywords">Narendra Modi</keyword> will be re-elected, even as much of the opposition has coalesced under a broad coalition,” the agency added. Fitch affirmed India’s rating at 'BBB-' with a stable outlook. “India's rating is underpinned by a robust medium-term GDP growth outlook and sound external finances, which remain intact as the country has effectively navigated a fraught external environment in the past few years,” it added.

Fitch expects RBI to cut interest rates by 75 basis points in FY25

The <keyword id="47276" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="economic-growth" source="Orion">economic growth</keyword> in <keyword id="119132" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="asia-pacific" source="Orion">Asia Pacific</keyword> will remain strong in 2024 and GDP is expected to grow by about 5 per cent in India and a host of emerging market countries, <keyword id="82981" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="fitch" source="Orion">Fitch</keyword> Ratings said on Wednesday. In its report titled '<keyword id="156416" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="apac" source="Orion">APAC</keyword> Cross-Sector Outlook 2024', Fitch said the outlooks for the banking sectors in India and Indonesia, as well as APAC emerging markets as a whole, move to improving in 2024, partly reflecting the robust economic backdrop. "Economic growth in APAC will generally remain strong in 2024, especially in emerging markets (EMs), supporting sector outlooks across the region. We expect real GDP to expand by, or above, 5 per cent in India, Indonesia, the Philippines and Vietnam, and China's performance will still be strong by most other countries' standards," Fitch said. The <keyword id="6356076" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="indian-economy" source="Orion">Indian economy</keyword> grew 7.2 per cent in 2022-23 fiscal year. India's GDP expanded 7.8 per cent and 7.6 per cent in the June and September quarters, respectively. Fitch had last month said it expects India to be among the world's fastest-growing large sovereigns, with resilient GDP growth of 6.9 per cent this fiscal, followed by 6.5 per cent in 2024-25. "Robust regional economic growth - particularly in Asia's large emerging markets - should offset headwinds from slowing growth in China, weak global demand and high interest rates, helping to support performance across sectors in APAC in 2024," Fitch Ratings Senior Director Duncan Innes-Ker said. Fitch said headwinds from slower Chinese growth, weak global demand and higher interest burdens following the rise in interest rates over 2022-23 will weigh on performance for many sectors. But the bulk of Fitch's APAC sector outlooks for 2024 remain neutral. "Sino-US tensions have eased recently, but we expect relations to remain challenging, which will lead companies to pursue further supply-chain diversification to limit exposure to geopolitical risks," Fitch said.

Growth in Asia Pacific emerging markets to remain strong in 2024: Fitch

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Home prices are continuing to increase, prolonging America's affordability crisis, Fitch said.</li><li>The ratings agency expects prices to rise between 3% to 5% in 2024.</li></ul>Housing unaffordability will continue to frustrate buyers through the end of this year, as <a target="_blank" href="https://www.fitchratings.com/research/structured-finance/real-home-price-appreciation-aligns-with-sustainable-price-trends-20-08-2024">Fitch Ratings</a> projects home prices to keep rising.Though the <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/houses-for-sale-supply-inventory-costs-mortgage-rates-prices-fed-2024-8">recent uptick in property listings</a> offers an early sign that the market is correcting, Fitch noted that obstacles stand in the way of cheaper housing."Challenges such as high mortgage rates and elevated home prices, which aggravate the affordability issue, continue to moderate the pace of this normalization," the ratings agency said in a new note on Tuesday.Fitch expects nominal home prices to rise between 3% and 5% in 2024. Its latest report tracked data through the first quarter and found that prices had already increased 1.5%.Appreciating prices would only compound affordability pressures in the market. According to Fitch, 89% of the country's metro areas are overvalued, a trend that has largely stayed consistent since the <a target="_blank" href="https://www.fitchratings.com/research/structured-finance/us-rmbs-sustainable-home-price-report-second-quarter-2022-09-08-2022">fourth quarter of 2022</a>. This figure did surpass <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-housing-market-overvalued-price-growth-mortgage-supply-fitch-ratings-2024-3">90% in the second half of last year</a>.The national home price was overvalued by 11.5% in the first quarter, Fitch said, a slight rise from the previous quarter's 11.1%. That's due to accelerating price growth, while rent, unemployment, mortgage rates, and income remained largely stable.57% of affected metros were overvalued by over 10% or more, it added.Unaffordability has kept prospective buyers on the sidelines this summer, as June's <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/housing-market-outlook-logjam-existing-home-sales-record-prices-mortgages-2024-7">median sale price jumped to a record $426,900</a>, the National Association of Realtors found.Many are staying back until mortgage rates fall, something that is expected to follow if the Federal Reserve cuts rates this September.The <a target="_blank" href="https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms">30-year fixed mortgage rate</a> dropped to 6.49% last week, a meaningful low from 7% highs reached in May.But Fitch has previously cautioned that lower interest rates may <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/housing-market-outlook-home-prices-2024-2025-fed-rate-cuts-2023-12">quicken the pace of price appreciation</a>.Recent commentary from "Shark Tank" star Barbara Corcoran supports this. The real-estate investor told Bloomberg that <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/housing-prices-market-outlook-us-mortgage-rates-drop-barbara-corcoran-2024-8">tremendous demand</a> is waiting for rates to drop and may cause the market to become more expensive than it is now.If mortgage rates fall to 6%, she expects home prices to jump as much as 10%.

Rising prices will prolong America's home-affordability crisis with 89% of the market still overvalued, Fitch says

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Indexes rose Thursday to continue a post-election rally after the Fed cut interest rates.</li><li>The Fed cut rates by 25 basis points, a smaller move compared to its September meeting. </li></ul>Indexes ended higher on Thursday, extending a post-election rally after the Federal Reserve delivered a rate cut at the end of its latest policy meeting. The Nasdaq jumped 1.5% to a new record high, while the S&amp;P 500 climbed 0.8% to a new record. The Dow Jones Industrial Index was nearly flat after surging by more than 1,500 points on Wednesday. Here's where US indexes stood at the 4:00 p.m. closing bell on Thursday:<ul><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/s&amp;p_500?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">S&amp;P 500</a>: 5,973.10, up 0.74% </li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/dow_jones?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Dow Jones Industrial Average</a>: 43,729.34</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/nasdaq_composite?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Nasdaq composite</a>: 19,269.46, up 1.5%</li></ul>Major indexes gained as the Fed <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/federal-reserve-cuts-interest-rates-quarter-point-powell-inflation-election-2024-11">cut rates by 25 basis points</a>, which was widely expected after an initial jumbo 50 basis point cut in September.Chair Jerome Powell said the Fed will continue to be data dependent, but that it is prepared to adjust its easing pace as necessary.Though some noted after the meeting that the Fed's tone may have sounded less confident about the path of inflation, noting "progress" has been made rather than the previous wording of "further progress," analysts were unconcerned."The Committee had used this language as a threshold to start cutting, so we interpret its removal as a reflection of the fact that the cutting cycle is already underway rather than as an indication of reduced confidence in the inflation outlook," analysts from Goldman Sachs said in a Thursday note.CPI data has been slightly sticky above the Fed's 2% target, with the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/inflation-september-cpi-consumer-price-index-federal-reserve-interest-rates-2024-10">latest report</a> showing inflation cooled in September but less than economists had expected.The labor market, on the other hand, appears to be a smaller source of stress for the Fed, but Powell said it's "prepared to adjust the pace and destination" of easing as the jobs data evolves."There seems to be less anxiety about the risk of rising unemployment and slowing job growth," Fitch Ratings chief economist Brian Coulton said in a Thursday note.The latest employment data, released Thursday, shows weekly jobless claims increased slightly to 221,000, a gain of 3,000 from the week before and in line with expectations.Investors seem hopeful Trump's light regulatory stance and proposals for corporate tax cuts will make for a more friendly business environment. <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-outlook-bull-rally-trump-deregulation-tax-cuts-evercore-2024-11">Evercore ISI this week predicted</a> the S&amp;P 500 to jump 11% by next summer as the rally accelerates in Trump's second term. Powell said the election outcome will have "no effect" on the Fed's policy in the near future and reiterated that the Fed does not speculate on any administration's potential impact on the economy.Here's what else is going on:<ul><li><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/polymarket-whale-banked-85-million-profit-trump-president-election-win-2024-11?miRedirects=1">The Polymarket "whale" made a lot more</a> than previously thought betting on Trump to win. </li><li>Stocks are entering "Crazy Town" as valuations near generational highs. </li><li>Stocks tied to Russia rally as Trump's win <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/russia-stocks-trump-win-ukraine-war-putin-zelenskyy-2024-11?_gl=1*7o1w4e*_ga*MTY3OTgyNjg0MS4xNzIxMDE2MDM2*_ga_E21CV80ZCZ*MTczMTAxMTE0MC4zNzguMS4xNzMxMDEzMTI1LjYwLjAuMA..">fuels hopes</a> for an end to the Ukraine war.</li><li>Trump's win created a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/wealthiest-people-in-world-net-worth-increase-trump-victory-stocks-2024-11?_gl=1*1kcs0b*_ga*MTY3OTgyNjg0MS4xNzIxMDE2MDM2*_ga_E21CV80ZCZ*MTczMTAxMTE0MC4zNzguMS4xNzMxMDEzMTUyLjMzLjAuMA..">record $64 billion</a> of net worth for the world's 10 richest people.</li></ul>In commodities, bonds, and crypto:<ul><li>Oil futures were up. <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price?type=wti">West Texas Intermediate crude</a> rose 0.5% to $72.06 a barrel. <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Brent crude</a>, the international benchmark, climbed 0.7% to $75.42 a barrel.</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/gold-price?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Gold</a> rose climbed 1.4% to $2,713.80 an ounce.</li><li>The 10-year Treasury fell nine basis points to 4.335%. </li><li><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/currencies/btc-usd">Bitcoin</a> was up slightly to $76,505.</li></ul>

You Searched For "fitch ratings" and got 13 results

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The US office sector will worsen through next year, and the recovery will be slower than after the 2008 crisis, Fitch Ratings says

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